Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Hey hey hey, I wasn't the one who had the ultimate sneak attack that can kill deity in one hit...
Precisely. Exactly the sort of thing you would do. For all I can speculate you've hacked yourself into the mod's computer and sent out all the PMs for your advantage. And on top of that, you've somehow hacked into the Mod's brains and given yourself lynch -99999 so you can't lose. After having done all that, you've laughed manically at your computer screen like I've known you to do.XReyoX" wrote: they can sitting behind the screen and laugh at me and other townies fighting against ourselves trying to lynch each other?
He is willing to finish me off already! AXReyoX wrote: I'll give you some help then.blatantscum-tell.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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There it is ladies and gents! We have a confession!Silly Reyo wrote: Spot on! I'll come down and Kill you physically tonight.
Leo, seriously, don't get killed today. I brought you here because I wanted to play with you. I don't want you dead on first day.
Just in case there's a mass wagon while I'm asleep...
UnvoteWoof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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I am not buying aword.
That was such an opportunistic vote, and you know it.
I noticed Reyo was the leading bandwagon. I estimated there are 6 or 4 scums in this game, more likely 6. Reyo has not presented himself with much of a scummy act so far, just what an everyday noob would do. So I put Reyo on lynch -6 with semi-rubbish reason, to see which fish would crawl out of their hole and take the bait. A noob scum would go with the flow, try to appear inconspicuous and push him up on the bandwagon. Probably using Reyo's noobish-ness as an excuse. You fit this perfectly.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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I take your point, but there are few things you haven't considered.Fuldu wrote:On the one hand, the assessment of OTU's vote is a perfectly reasonable one. But the trap's he's describing having set is a bizarre justification of an equally bad vote. "I figured there were 6 scum in the game, so I placed a vote I didn't actually believe in to see who else would jump on the bandwagon at lynch -6."
First of all, traps like that don't work at lynch -6, even if you know for certain that there are exactly 6 scum in the game. If scum are going to jump on a bandwagon, they're more likely to do it closer to lynch than -6; maybe at lynch -2 or -3, but not at -6. If it looks like scum are pushing toward a fast lynch, they have to all vote in relatively quick time or someone will get wise and remove their vote. It's hard enough to do that with two scum, doing it with six is downright laughable.
And that assumes that there weren't already any scum on the bandwagon. If one of the six scum was already voting XReyoX, then the remaining five know they can't get to lynch and so they just have to wait.
To me this looks like and ad hoc, and frankly ridiculous, explanation for a vote in an attempt to make sure that the bandwagon that follows XReyoX's is on OverTheUnder and not on Raffles.
Probably the most crucial. 6 (or 4) scumsdo not know who each other are. They know their scum buddies, but they have no knowleddge of the other group. This makes it far more likely that a scum is going to turn up and push the wagon, especially if it is half way through (i.e. false sense of security that it would be okay to vote since it is not putting Reyo on lynch -1 or 2 or whatever).
I had to put a vote I didn't believe in to push the wagon up to half way line. Otherwise wagon might have fizzled out. I thought it would be the best timing too as no one has done anything overly stupid yet to dismantle this wagon. Please consider it again.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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*mutters to self*
Last time I lay a bloody trap then... nobody would take me seriously.
I've given up of any hope of convincing you two, but honestly, what is there to gain from jumping in to take credit? Not only I despise such dishonest acts, it would gain me nothing other than cheap street cred that wouldn't prove anything. Whereas I would get some skill if I actually thought about what I'm doing. Whether you believe it or not, I did it with full intention of catching a scum. End of story.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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This is getting way unneccesary and ridiculous. Alright, I'll play along.Remussaidow wrote: in my experience, the only people who repeatedly use the same argument are scum.
HEAVY FOS: Raffles.
First, I have not used any argument, let alone a same one. I just said, you can think what you want, but this is what I did, end of story.
Second, and more amusingly, what are these things called scum tells, then?Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Nope, this is because you have not read things properly. Tsk.Kison wrote:Ok, so you can just say "end of story" and expect that everyone takes your word for it and moves on?
Horrible rebuttal.
Raffles wrote: I just said, you can think what you want, but this is what I did, end of story.
Now if you wanted any serious response on this (I apologize, but you didn't ask for any, I thought you were just trying to rub it in and piss me off), then all I can say is it is a natural human nature to assume a worst case scenario, when the welfare of themselves or the ones the subject cares for is not concerned. Just look at how media reports politics. I am not going to fight against something so inherently embedded, it is futile.Kison wrote:Your claiming that does not change the fact that there was indeed a possible gain for "taking credit".
I think I give up with sledgehammer. I'm gonna move onto wrecking ball.remussaidow wrote: Your quote within this quote is a statement that is being used tosway people to your point of view. This is called an argument. You've used it 3, fours times now, I'm not sure how many. That's a scumtell, in my experience.
Raffles wrote: I just said,, but this is what I did, end of story.you can think what you wantWoof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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The numbers of scum? Simple.
There are two teams.
It is unlikely that there are diffrent numbers in each scum team.
Therefore the total number of scums are even.
There are 21 in the game.
There must be multiple numbers in a scum team.
Then we have 6/21 or 4/21. It is unlikely 8/21, that's way too many.
Then I have to think about which one is more likely. My gut told me it is more likely to be 6/21. 2 people in scum team just sounds too little, considering the amount of variable roles that can be gained from putting two different mafia games together. So I went with 3 per team.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Shit, you asked about lynch -6 too? I missed that.
But I thought we ended our ways with both Kison and I being a stubborn arse because we are both too immature to stop making snide comments? What is anything I'm about to say going to convince otherwise? :S
Aaaaanyhow, if you want me to explain it, I think I shall...
It's simple, it's a halfway house. In a big game like this, if someone has got half the vote required then the person's orbiting on event horizon. Not many would question a possibility of lynch of someone who has built that many votes. This creates an ideal situation for scum who hasn't voted on that person yet. The lynchee has clearly done something questionable so placing a vote wouldn't look suspicious, but it's not placing the person on lynch -1 or 2. A safe vote.
Anyway you can count on me not to scheme something like that again, I've been backfired with an ugly side of human nature...
And Kison
That's a mostKison wrote: Raffles is a better candidate simply because he's more experienced and therefore would act more like scum in a traditional sense, wheras in your case, I have to factor in the fact that you're a new player and probably don't know how to act in whatever role you may be placed in.ridiculousassumption. Sure, I was/am in 5 games, but my cumulutive day count amounts to the grand total of2days. How the heck would I know how to act a scum "traditionally", assuming there is such a thing.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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I would call this an assumption. Even if I was a scum, I could act radically. I have no idea what you are on about by "tradional scum".Kison wrote: therefore would act more like scum in a traditional sense,
And no, I have not have had much of a chance to interact with someone who I know is a scum. Yes there had been one, but she's been largely lynched on the basis of being lurkish and non-commital.
PBuG, if you are going to attack my lack of logic then use one yourself and tear me apart please. Stating that on it's own will give me no chance to defend myself.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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I'm sure Kison would jump in on this by saying
"OMG he's shifting attention! DIE SCUM!" (hahar, beaten you to it)
but I have to say, it's been awfully quiet. I think I provided a lot of controversial material for people to join in, yet it's just Reyo, Kison and I. I smell "let's just sit back, relax, and let Raffs get lynched" from the scums.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles
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I want to keep that to myself for the moment, if you don't mind. There has been far too little posts from everyone else, and I want to have more firm evidence rather than putting scums on early alert.
My vote is on OverTheUnder at the moment. He is very likely a scum, but that's all I'm saying.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Mr. Flay, I've answered both of your questions. I'm not trying to avoid anything. :/
I take it you acknowledged the answer to question 1
Answer to question 2:
Raffles wrote: Probably the most crucial. 6 (or 4) scums do not know who each other are. They know their scum buddies, but they have no knowleddge of the other group. This makes it far more likely that a scum is going to turn up and push the wagon, especially if it is half way through (i.e. false sense of security that it would be okay to vote since it is not putting Reyo on lynch -1 or 2 or whatever).
Looking back, I concede that these takes a fair amount of assumption. But I do honestly believe that a scum would prefer this timing rather than beginning or the end. For that reason.Raffles wrote: It's simple, it's a halfway house. In a big game like this, if someone has got half the vote required then the person's orbiting on event horizon. Not many would question a possibility of lynch of someone who has built that many votes. This creates an ideal situation for scum who hasn't voted on that person yet. The lynchee has clearly done something questionable so placing a vote wouldn't look suspicious, but it's not placing the person on lynch -1 or 2. A safe vote.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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And just may I ask, why are these scummy? It might look scummy if I did it with no reason, but I gave an explanation for each one.Mr. Flay wrote: tried to deflect attention, and then withheld information on who he thought was scummy.
For the first, I've said it myself that this might look scummy, but I needed to mention what I observed. Having assumed that people are more or less finished with interrogating me, I didn't think it would be a problem to speak my observation.
I also think I gave a valid reason for witholding my scum list. I don't see why you would have a problem with it.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Kison, I agree, but I always say in other games that everything on first day is a WIFOM. If we accuse everyone's accusation of being one, we wouldn't get anywhere.
To Mr. Flay
I still don't understand what I did so wrong that I have my ass tailed with at least three homing missiles. All I did was experiment with a few somethings new, which I admit it had just blown back into my face. If in "scum-hunting" rules that kind of thing requires a death warrant then go ahead, lynch me. But I personally think it's against the spirit of mafia. (This is posted in the game you are modding)Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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FOS: al4xz, but not for the same reason as everyone else. (Yes, I have finally returned...)
When everyone started voting for al4xz because of his style, I didn't agree with it because he always plays like that - Uncaring. It's the sudden change of his attitude that he cares is what worries me. And this is the second player who is just too plain opportunistic.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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1. I've re-read his posts, but I can't really extract any useful contribution to the town from him, despite the number of posts he may have made more than most. (Other than that each player analysis) Maybe he is lazy, maybe he is a scum. I do believe it was an opportunistic vote though.
2. That point to me is sort of null. The way I see it, the best way to play a scum is to forget that you are one completely during the day, and go on scum-hunting as you would in any other day. This is a good play because
a) Towns can't analize your interaction with your scum buddies.
b) You'd appear as how you would in any other game, which is like a townie if you are good.
So if I'm a scum and see my scum buddy putting up a scummy play then I would quite happily lynch him. But I guess this may differ from scum to scum.
3. I would say much more likely than others, maybe a nudge below 70.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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You are throwing a WIFOM/too townie argument there mate.
"He is playing too scummy, scum would know better than to do that. He must be a townie"
It just doesn't make sense.
As for your second point, note that wagon for OTU didn't appear until after your wagon. And you did have over 1/2 of the votes needed for lynch...Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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But OTU is notyou. Maybe he didn't spot that it might look scummy. I personally thought someone scummy might start crawling out at that point, where I thought to lay a trap. If I thought it was blatantly obvious and scum would never approach it that way, I wouldn't have done it in the first place.
Why wouldn't he place a vote on your wagon just because his scum mates placed a vote on yours? I admit, any scum would be a bit hesitant, if all his scum buddies placed a vote on you, but I can't see any problem being a second one.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Or the scum could pick someone completely at random, to prevent from having their kills analyzed? They could try and kill someone who they suspect might be a cop? Scum don't generally tend to kill a big townie, because they have a good chance of getting doc protection (esp. if the town just lynched a scum). There are whole variety of reasons why scum would kill someone. Not just because they are experienced.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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And again, this is where your theory fails. Assuming your theories are true, and I am a scum, I am under no pressure for the time being and therefore have no need to pass on any information. Regarding of which, I am curious to know what you thought was the information I was trying to pass on, and who I was passing it onto.BM wrote: as i have said, it is certainly not impossible. Just difficult, and certainly not something you can be certain of. Noobs who are about to die, will occassionally pass on info to their buddies before they go. Similarly, experienced players may be forced to issue instructions to a noob buddy who isnt doing as they should.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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What, I only left a couple of days!
I think people are just scared of putting OTU too close on lynch -1 and the subsequent hammer. It's simply that everyone knows he's scummy, but he hasn't acted scummy enough to deserve a lynch. But nobody has the balls to say it. What the hell, I'll wait until something more interesting appears. Certainly Pbug - Kison theory is interesting, and I'll look over that in my next long free time. It's also interesting that OTU kinda seem to have given up on the game. Meanwhile, I'llunvoteWoof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Well that kind of depends on whether you agree with what I said or not. Do you really think he's commited enough crimes to be worthy of a lynch? And if so, why isn't he lynched until now?Mr. Flay wrote: Wait, Raffles, why the hell are you unvoting OTU???
And if not, what's the point in keeping a vote on him?Woof!-
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