Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't know what WoT stand for, but I'll take your word for it. I can imagine how analyzing night actions for that one would be a right mess though.

If you looked in the Theme Park for more than 2 seconds, you'd see a thread labelled "WoT Mafia" I abbreviated it to make it easier for you to find the thread... -_-

[Raffles]

Ya thnx. I found it.

[Kison]

OTU on verge of lynch for very long time.

Maybe he is not worth the lynch?

Unvote
Realize the deadline

Given no lynch or OTU lynch, OTU lynch is better than nothing
Should I revote? No I shouldn't (for reasons above)

[/i]

I'm not quite following you. You say that an OTU lynch is better than no lynch. Yet why would you not re-vote if you were for the lynch?
to his being town.

In any event, what you say does not match up.

#404 raffles answered, "3. I would say much more likely than others, maybe a nudge below 70. "

At this point, you[Raffles] are more confident than not that OTU is scum. Yet you go on later to say that his prolonged wagon makes him look more innocent. That's a pretty sudden shift of opinion with a near baseless reason.

Vote : Raffles

Inconsistency.

[XReyoX]

OTU has disappeared at most crucial of times...

I'm not there to place the hammer when the deadline comes I'm afraid, someone else needs to do that.

If I was there to place the hammer on the deadline, obviously I would have done.

[Fuldu]

I still think people are thinking into this too much. An antagonist has been killed, could be on either side. There was only one nightkill. Does analysis need to go any further than this? In fact, why does it matter if al4xz was wolf or scum? They are just names. You don't need to do this if there is just two mafia groups, namely because well... it's not possible. Why does this need to be done here?

If he was neither wolf nor mafia, then that is important information.

[Fuldu]

Bah, I see that the above was addressed further along. Too many posts while I was at work.

[Raffles]

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Well that quite clearly wasn't it in this case, was it?

[Mastermind of Sin]

And? Hindsight is 20/20, my friend. You can't use something that happened later as justification for your earlier actions. It doesn't change the fact that your assumption was bad.

[Raffles]

Fine. It might have been a bad decision. But what you said proves nothing in terms of my alignment. I can't be seen as scummy through what you said, since OTU didn't turn out to be a scum.

And MoS, you seem to be unable to point out the obvious for a last couple of pages. Shall I tell you why ESE is unlikely to be the 3rd scum group? Same reason al4xz is unlikely to be a cult. Two failed mafia kills in a night.

[Battle Mage]

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

QFT

@Raffles-2 failed mafia kills is hardly surprising. in fact, i recently modded a game where exactly that happened (well there were 2 scum groups and an SK) and with 3 killing groups, no NK was made.

[Raffles]

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

QFT

@Raffles-2 failed mafia kills is hardly surprising. in fact, i recently modded a game where exactly that happened (well there were 2 scum groups and an SK) and with 3 killing groups, no NK was made.

.....

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Well that quite clearly wasn't it in this case, was it?

[Battle Mage]

and the only way you could have known that is if you were scum. Raffles, you're making it very hard for me not to vote for you here...

[Raffles]

No. There is another way I could have known, and that is because surprise surprise, our rather hated retired cop is

dead

! Deader than a dodo. MoS's theory suggests that I'm a scumbuddy. But the lynch result proves

there is no scum to be buddied with!

Besides, even if it looks bad, my assumption was right. Another point for gut, nothing for logic.

[XReyoX]

I'm going to repeat again.

Al4 being a cult =/= 2 failed NK.

Assuming there are 3 mafia and 3 wolves (like the other game).

both scum group targetted alex has a probability of 14/(17^2)= 4.8%

1 group targetted alex and the other got protected = (17 x 2) /(17 x 19) = 10.4%

*no blocker / immune role included. chance would be higher than 10.4% if these are include.

@BM: use some logic.
if there were 2 missed NK and alx died because he tried to recruit a scum. The chance is
(6/19)(17/(17x19))^2= 8.7 x 10^-2 %.

Its like saying "i wouldn't be suprised if i win the lottery even tho it has one in a billionth chance of happening, because someone win it everyday"

[Mastermind of Sin]

No. There is another way I could have known, and that is because surprise surprise, our rather hated retired cop is

dead

! Deader than a dodo. MoS's theory suggests that I'm a scumbuddy. But the lynch result proves

there is no scum to be buddied with!

Besides, even if it looks bad, my assumption was right. Another point for gut, nothing for logic.

My theory suggests that you are an ESE member, not a scumbuddy. You're making shit up in a bad attempt to discredit the points against you. GG, yo.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Fine. It might have been a bad decision. But what you said proves nothing in terms of my alignment. I can't be seen as scummy through what you said, since OTU didn't turn out to be a scum.

And MoS, you seem to be unable to point out the obvious for a last couple of pages. Shall I tell you why ESE is unlikely to be the 3rd scum group? Same reason al4xz is unlikely to be a cult. Two failed mafia kills in a night.

See: Committee Mafia. Night 4, five killing groups, 1 nightkill. You lose.

[Mastermind of Sin]

In addition, I don't think there were two failed kills. I think al4xz was killed by the mafia, as I've previously said, and the wolves missed their kill for some reason or another.

[Raffles]

No. There is another way I could have known, and that is because surprise surprise, our rather hated retired cop is

dead

! Deader than a dodo. MoS's theory suggests that I'm a scumbuddy. But the lynch result proves

there is no scum to be buddied with!

Besides, even if it looks bad, my assumption was right. Another point for gut, nothing for logic.

My theory suggests that you are an ESE member, not a scumbuddy. You're making shit up in a bad attempt to discredit the points against you. GG, yo.

Say what?

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

I'm thinking this is where the jumped conclusion (or so it appears to me) that I'm an ESE member. But I'm not getting how it works. Shed any light please?

In addition, I don't think there were two failed kills. I think al4xz was killed by the mafia, as I've previously said, and the wolves missed their kill for some reason or another.

Any theories on this "some reason ot other"? If ESE was 3rd scum group (I'm still utterly unconvinced by the idea) who did they intend to kill? There's that failed kill to explain as well.

[Mastermind of Sin]

ESE = cult. Jeez, didn't we already cover this? Please work on your reading retention.

No, I'm not going to speculate on

why

there was a missed kill. That would be stupid, because there are far too many factors that we don't know about, including roleblockers, doctors, redirectors, kill overlaps, and other mechanics that we may not have seen before or considered.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

Once again you are trying to use results to justify a previous action. Logic doesn't work that way. The only way you could've known that he wasn't scum

before

he was lynched was to be scum yourself, as BM pointed out. He gave off every indication of a scum who felt pressured and gave up, disappearing from the thread. There was no indication that he could be town, certainly not enough to justify this "gut" of yours.

[Raffles]

ESE = cult. Jeez, didn't we already cover this? Please work on your reading retention.

No, I'm not going to speculate on

why

there was a missed kill. That would be stupid, because there are far too many factors that we don't know about, including roleblockers, doctors, redirectors, kill overlaps, and other mechanics that we may not have seen before or considered.

There is absolutely no definitive proof that ESE is a cult. It is in your little closed world that you got it in yourself that it is definitely a cult pulverizing alternatives in your wake.

You still have to explain to me your warped theory.

Has anyone played in a game where there is a cult and the alignments colour coded?

[Mastermind of Sin]

red = antitown. cult = antitown. 'nuff said.

There isn't difinitive proof that there is a cult, but there also is no reason to assume that there isn't. The fact that you are so hellbent on dismissing the possibility altogether only

reinforces

this, further supporting the theory that there is a cult.

[Raffles]

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

Once again you are trying to use results to justify a previous action. Logic doesn't work that way. The only way you could've known that he wasn't scum

before

he was lynched was to be scum yourself, as BM pointed out. He gave off every indication of a scum who felt pressured and gave up, disappearing from the thread. There was no indication that he could be town, certainly not enough to justify this "gut" of yours.

That's rubbish. A pressured scum gives up? I can understand a pressured townie giving up. How could you know that he was

scum

that gave up? There is certainly no "overwhelming" evidence to justify that he was a scum. A scum giving up makes much less sense. Given a townie or scum, townie is much more likely to give up in face of death due to their lack of powers.

The only way I could've known - yea right. Did I ever say this? "I definitely knew for sure that OTU wasn't a scum. Try this.

I didn't know

. But I had a bad feeling about it. Okay?

[Raffles]

red = antitown. cult = antitown. 'nuff said.

There isn't difinitive proof that there is a cult, but there also is no reason to assume that there isn't. The fact that you are so hellbent on dismissing the possibility altogether only

reinforces

this, further supporting the theory that there is a cult.

Okay fine. There

could be

a cult (It would be better if we could get definite answer on the colour code to confirm it). But looking at this game in isolation (i.e. no reference to any other games), it is just as likely that ESE is the name of mafia group, looking at the probability of the previous night action. Happy?

[XReyoX]

Has anyone played in a game where there is a cult and the alignments colour coded?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3189
scum = red. cult=green