Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Mastermind of Sin]

Who is that addressed to, Kison? N9V?

[Kison]

Yes, that was for N9V. Sorry.

[Battle Mage]

this seems rather timely, considering Lowell did the same thing to you in another game recently. i recall that most people were willing to believe the claimed cop in that situation. are you hoping that the same thing will work here?

FoS: N9V

[TBuG]

I believe N9V's claim, and I want to know what Shanba knows about Akbar. No vote yet.

[theopor_COD]

n9v I don't dispute your claim but why IH and I assume you have another investigation from night one?

[Fuldu]

this seems rather timely, considering Lowell did the same thing to you in another game recently. i recall that most people were willing to believe the claimed cop in that situation. are you hoping that the same thing will work here?

FoS: N9V

Battle Mage, it's much too early in a game this size for scum to expect to get much out of an unforced cop claim. I'll side with MoS's apparent belief that the claim was foolish and unnecessary, but I doubt that it's a lie.

[DrippingGoofball]

That's a situation worth testing.

vote: IH

[The Greg]

Hello everyone. I read the thread in advance, so I'm relatively up to speed about what's going on. I'll do a more in-depth analysis and post my thoughts later, but it seems that there is a more pressing matter to attend to at the moment: N9V's claim. I'll believe it, because I don't see any reason why he'd lie this early as scum. I'd like some more information from him:

Do you know what you find? (wolves? mafia?)

Do you know your sanity?

Who did you investigate N1?

Why did you investigate IH night two? It seems that there were better choices for investigation, like Raffles, DGB, and PBug.

Until I can be sure of your sanity, I'll withhold my vote.

On a separate note, I too am interested to see how Akbar responds to Shanba.

[~N9V~]

I find wolves

Uhh, Night1 I got guilty (on IH) Night 2 I got innocent so I think I'mnormal Cop.

I chose IH night1, just didnt feel that I shouldve claimed day 2.

[Mastermind of Sin]

N9V, until the person you got innocent on dies to confirm they are protown, we don't know if you are sane or insane. Right now, I think the best option here would be to reveal who you got the innocent on, for several reasons:

1) If you get killed any time soon, we would have no way to check your sanity to know whether or not to lynch IH

2) Even if you reveal an innocent investigation, it will help us. The wolves won't kill the innocent person, because they don't want to confirm IH's guilt (or vice versa, depending on your sanity). Other scum *might* target the innocent person, but that just means that we're trading one innocent for a guaranteed guilty. Since we don't know your sanity, we might even get lucky by having scum kill the guilty person, so we don't even have to waste a lynch.

[DrippingGoofball]

2) Even if you reveal an innocent investigation, it will help us. The wolves won't kill the innocent person, because they don't want to confirm IH's guilt (or vice versa, depending on your sanity). Other scum *might* target the innocent person, but that just means that we're trading one innocent for a guaranteed guilty. Since we don't know your sanity, we might even get lucky by having scum kill the guilty person, so we don't even have to waste a lynch.

I am probably being stupid, but after today, if we do lynch IH, what is to stop the scum from KN'ng the innocent? Once IH is lynched and confirned scum, there should be little concern for N9V's sanity. At which point there will be no reason for the scum to hold off killing the innocent.

[The Greg]

2) Even if you reveal an innocent investigation, it will help us. The wolves won't kill the innocent person, because they don't want to confirm IH's guilt (or vice versa, depending on your sanity). Other scum *might* target the innocent person, but that just means that we're trading one innocent for a guaranteed guilty. Since we don't know your sanity, we might even get lucky by having scum kill the guilty person, so we don't even have to waste a lynch.

I am probably being stupid, but after today, if we do lynch IH, what is to stop the scum from KN'ng the innocent? Once IH is lynched and confirned scum, there should be little concern for N9V's sanity. At which point there will be no reason for the scum to hold off killing the innocent.

That's under the assumption, though, that N9V is sane and IH is scum. If we lynch IH and he turn up non-wolf, and then N9V gets killed, we'll have no idea who the person he found innocent was, who must be scum since N9V was insane to find IH guilty. Also, keep in mind that N9V's "innocent" is by no means guaranteed pro-town, even if he is sane. They're merely non-wolf, but could easily be a mafioso, SK, cult memeber, etc.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm willing to trade one protown person to make sure that we get a scum. Your plan has too many wholes.

[The Fonz]

Wow. That was quite a start to the day. I guess lynching DGB under LynchAllLiars for claiming that Battle Mage is not annoying can wait.

2) Even if you reveal an innocent investigation, it will help us. The wolves won't kill the innocent person, because they don't want to confirm IH's guilt (or vice versa, depending on your sanity). Other scum *might* target the innocent person, but that just means that we're trading one innocent for a guaranteed guilty. Since we don't know your sanity, we might even get lucky by having scum kill the guilty person, so we don't even have to waste a lynch.

I am probably being stupid, but after today, if we do lynch IH, what is to stop the scum from KN'ng the innocent? Once IH is lynched and confirned scum, there should be little concern for N9V's sanity. At which point there will be no reason for the scum to hold off killing the innocent.

That's under the assumption, though, that N9V is sane and IH is scum. If we lynch IH and he turn up non-wolf, and then N9V gets killed, we'll have no idea who the person he found innocent was,

who must be scum since N9V was insane to find IH guilty.

Also, keep in mind that N9V's "innocent" is by no means guaranteed pro-town, even if he is sane. They're merely non-wolf, but could easily be a mafioso, SK, cult memeber, etc.

You're discounting the possibility of paranoia. I'm not sure concealing the non-wolf does any good, though- after all, the wolves know who is a wolf or not.

[XReyoX]

@Fonz: I don't think n9v would be a paranoia cop. paranoia cops get guilty results no matter what. He is either normal or insane.

@n9v: perhaps you should tell us who you've got innocent result from. If you are normal and we lynch IH (wolf), then the other guy would be non-wolf. If you are insane and we lynch IH(town), it means the other one is wolf. Also, why did you claim at this point? Shanba voting akbar means it is possible that he is the mafia-finding cop. Revealing a lot of town power-role to the scums is not a very good move at the moment I believe.

@shanba, why are you happy to know that nmeme is town, not scum?

[Raffles]

Or of course, a complete lie to send us on a wild goose chase for the day. There are too many possibilities and I don't feel like accepting that claim on the face value.

What do people think of the circumstances surrounding Flay's death?

[The Fonz]

@Fonz: I don't think n9v would be a paranoia cop. paranoia cops get guilty results no matter what. He is either normal or insane.

That's right, I'd forgotten he got an innocent. (Yes, I know- in the same post I was talking about whether he oughta reveal his not-wolf result. So sue me).

Or of course, a complete lie to send us on a wild goose chase for the day. There are too many possibilities and I don't feel like accepting that claim on the face value.

Pah, he's got a guilty. Whether you feel like accepting it at face value or not, it's testable.

[Battle Mage]

no seriously, im in alot of games with N9V, and this same thing happened AGAINST him there. i just have a gut feeling that he thinks the same thing will work here, and he will gain unquestionned protection for a while.
i think if he is a cop, he should reveal his innocent, as the scum are bound to kill him tonight anyway.
BM

this seems rather timely, considering Lowell did the same thing to you in another game recently. i recall that most people were willing to believe the claimed cop in that situation. are you hoping that the same thing will work here?

FoS: N9V

Battle Mage, it's much too early in a game this size for scum to expect to get much out of an unforced cop claim. I'll side with MoS's apparent belief that the claim was foolish and unnecessary, but I doubt that it's a lie.

[XReyoX]

@BM: According to your theory suggesting n9v is scum, what do you think he is trying to achieve? trading 1 town lynch with his life? not quite profitable for his scum group at this time of the day I believe.

[DrippingGoofball]

That's under the assumption, though, that N9V is sane and IH is scum.

I'm willing to take my chances that he's sane and IH is scum. That is the most likely scenario.

I think that's better that revealing the "innocent" and not killing IH, in the hope that the mafia will NK the innocent. Because as you point out, the innocent might not be innocent, which will cause us to draw incorrect conclusions about the cop's sanity. To test his sanity, we have to lynch IH, not hope for the mafia to NK the innocent.

[DrippingGoofball]

Oh yes, when I say the innocent might not be innocent, by this I mean he might be a guilty, but non-wolf guilty.

[Battle Mage]

@BM: According to your theory suggesting n9v is scum, what do you think he is trying to achieve? trading 1 town lynch with his life? not quite profitable for his scum group at this time of the day I believe.

if that happens, he could easily claim insanity. otherwise, its quite possible that hes throwing his buddy IH under the bus, in order to confirm himself. Then he can go on to claim each of his other buddies are innocent.

BM

[theopor_COD]

vote IH

If ~n9v~ says he has a guilty on him, then best way to find out if he's telling the truth is lynching the guilty one. If IH comes back town/other scum group - then ~n9v~'s insane/paranoid or a dirty liar (I think that's pretty unlikely) and should probably reveal his innocent because of the sanity issues. If ~n9v~ can only investigate wolves then his innocent isn't neccesarily cleared either, the wolves already know he ain't a wolf as such, town shouldn't take him as cleared.

[XReyoX]

@BM: That wouldn't work. When the real cop dies or claims, we will know that n9v is scum, and whoever he claims to be innocent would be very likely a his wolf-buddies. That would be the gameover for them.

[Kison]

I will believe this claim for now. However, I'd like my other question answered, N9V.

If N9V is working as Battle Mage proposes(which I think is a reasonable theory), then we will find out eventually. No, really, we will... Real cop is not dead yet.