Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[XReyoX]

@IH

I think I didn't say that the lynch wasn't obvious. After knowing about the deadline and only 6 votes were required. I was pretty sure that he would be lynch. no one else had the potential to gain 6 votes in just a few days at that time.

As i've said before, scums don't know whether it is a town lynch. Raffles explanation looks fine to me until he said he would have chosen to lynch him on 569.

[XReyoX]

But aren't mislynches a normal occurence? Then why would scum care if they are on the mislynch wagon?

No. Mislynch occurs because scums lie and mislead the town. When mislynch happens, it means that scums have been making fake reasons up and/or joining the wagon using poor reasons.

In a normal game, some scums would stay off the mislynch i think because the ones who was on the wagon would either be a) a scum, b) a townie mislead by the scums, c) a townie with not very good judgement or d) The person being lynch is an idiot who was causing more harm to the town while being a town himself. However, in this game where there are (at least) 2 scum teams. A scum would be trying to catch scums in the other group as well along with the town. Therefore they would be more likely to stay ON the wagon because the person being lynch could be a scum.

[Raffles]

In a normal game, some scums would stay off the mislynch i think because the ones who was on the wagon would either be a) a scum, b) a townie mislead by the scums, c) a townie with not very good judgement or d) The person being lynch is an idiot who was causing more harm to the town while being a town himself.

By this logic, it would mean that if a mislynch occurs, then we should target the most experienced players on the mislynch wagon, because they are least likely to be b) or c).

[XReyoX]

@ Raffles: True. Go check on their wiki and see if they've got a 99% win rate. If they have and was on OTU's wagon. This would be a case against them. LOL

At the moment, a mislynch on D1 doesn't tell much (but should not be ignored). This is the only major thing we can use to go on about at this point. We had little to analyse from yesterday. Thats why scums could deceive the town so easily.

You still havn't answer my #571

[XReyoX]

... Maybe the question wasn't clear enough. If you would have chosen to lynch OTU, why did you unvote?

[Raffles]

I unvoted because of the following:

He was teeteering on lynch -2/1 for a very long time.
----> A sign that he was not worth the lynch?
----------> If he is not worth the lynch, why do I still have my vote on him?

He was disinterested in the game even near the lynch.
----> Cannot be bothered to stay in game? A boring role maybe?

All these gives me a bad gut feeling that OTU is a townie about to be lynched.


So I investigate further...

True there wasn't much to suggest he was a town in his post. But then there wasn't much to suggest he is a scum from his post, apart from his opportunistic vote.
----> Not particularly a strong reason as I first thought it might be.
--------> Then I shouldn't have my vote on him.

Unvote

[Akbar]

In regards to the Mod scene, I don't think ESE is Cult. XreyoX already pointed out if he was cult, both scumgroups would have missed they're turn/been blocked. I can't imagine our blocker(s) getting that lucky. I also don't think its important if ESE is Mafia or Wolf group. What is important is they killed each other. That would mean they have no 1 shot crosskill immunity. If they have no immunity, that means whoever our blocker(s) is/are protected a target last night. Thus it's likely whoever was protected is town.

Thanks to Mr. Flay and XreyoX for producing the Voting summaries. These are a great help. Knowing OTU is town, it's likely more scum were on his wagon than the ones hiding from it. Right now I'm suspicious of several folks on it.

Fuldu

Mastermind of Sin

DrippingGoofball
BattleMage

Mr. Flay

Remussaidow

PBug

Scarecrow
Theopor_COD

IH

Fuldu

Post 124: Fuldu places a lot of reasoning on Raffles being suspicious. Last paragraph states Fuldu has problems with the OTU wagon, and is suspicious of Raffles involvement with it. But, he votes OTU anyway.

Post 131: Again attempting to establish Raffles is not speaking the truth, but leaves his vote on OTU.

Post 187: He tells XreyoX he's being suspicious and should watch what he says.(This could be interpreted as instruction. But in 234 he draws suspicion on XreyoX from the use "we" in a sentence.)

Post 195: Clarifies the scummy actions to XReyoX. (Apparently not significant enough to change his vote from OTU.)

Nothing till page 15 & 16 where Fuldu and I get into an altercation about saving OTU's life. Still believe he should have held out on his role-claim?

Post 507: He blames Raffles for "dissuaded OTU from claiming." Although Raffles did tell OTU to hold off, Rereading page 15, you'll find Fuldu made it clear he didn't want OTU to claim yet either and Fossed me for thinking otherwise.

Mastermind of Sin

I don't find much of any reason to suspect MoS at this time.

DrippingGoofball

Most of DGB's posts have very little information in them. A couple that stood out are Post 290 where DGB takes time out to let us know she feels Remus is town when suspicion developed on him.(No opinions were made with other suspects. This could indicate a partnering.)

Before Post 555, XreyoX asked a pretty straightforward question directed at OTU's wagoners. "Why did you vote him?"
In Post 555, DGB ignores XreyoX's question and tries to flip it back on XreyoX. DGB is not only dodging the question, but is also trying to get XreyoX to provide answers for it as well.

Battle Mage

Post 111 looks like "protown fluff."
Post 207 is somewhat convoluted. OTU question's BM's reasoning for voting him. BM's reply translates roughly to "I have my reasons, and your scum because you voted me."
Pages 10 & 11 could be interpreted as role-fishing which abruptly stops after he gets the FOS from MOS. (that has a nice ring to it-FOS from MOS)
Post 497 is BM stating he's convinced of OTU being scum regardless of any defense presented.

Mr. Flay

I don't find much suspicion on Mr. Flay at this time. There were a couple posts trying to get Raffles to tell him what he knows. This could be analyzing the "worthiness" of a NightKill target. But, is more likely just curiosity.
I can understand Raffles strategy somewhat if he's truly town. He wouldn't want to draw attention from scums while he builds his case. The downfall being of course, us losing all that information if he gets whacked before "spilling the beans."

Post 548: Mr. Flay dodges XreyoX's question somewhat by demanding specific clarification.

Post 287 is Mr. Flay attacking Al4xz, which is a plus. It implies at least Flay is not ESE.

Remussaidow

In the early stages of the game, Remus appears to be putting on a show. In post 72, he inserts a disclaimer with his vote, just incase its taken the wrong way.

Post 126 is more fluff. He announces his willingness to vote any of 3 targets:OTU, Kison & Reyo(1 being a cop), but a desire to hold his vote for now. (This could be giving time to determine where the wagon momentum will go so he can join one rolling instead of being a founder.)

Post 137, just 11 posts later, he joins in the Raffles Fossing, which was lead predominantly by Kison, one of the players he announced he would vote for. (I would feel uncomfortable agreeing with someone I would vote for.)

Post 201, Remus said "Raffles, Kison, OtU, and reyo all seem to just be convenient targets right now." Apparently that's exactly what OTU was, a convenient target.

Post 289 is remus placing his vote on OTU now that a healthy wagon has bloomed. But, his vote was again accompanied with the disclaimer:
"That being said, I'm going to vote: OtU because I think that he is the slightly scummier of the two candidates.

this vote is very likely to come off though

."
Why would it very likely come off? Why even vote at all with that amount of uncertainty? I think it's to appear detached from a townie wagon while adding to its steam.

PBug

I don't find much scummy with PBug at this time. His similar voting with Kison may just be coincidence or it could be Kison latching onto a townie. Kison being absent of the OTU lynching being a plus as well.

Scarecrow

Scarecrow gives me the impression of a Serial Killer. He hasn't really posted anything to analyze. You could really speculate any role with him. He could be bored vanilla townie, reclusive power-role or just lurking scum.

Theopor_COD

Post 211 he defends BM some which could indicate partnering.(But, in post 414 he points out BM's scumminess for fishing in 260) He FOS's OTU & Scarecrow and then declares a hunch that MoS is scum. Now that a month is passed, do you still have that hunch and if so, could you elaborate on it? Also, what does the phrase "post some waffle" mean?

Post 414 & 417 He declares Remus to be more scummy than OTU.

By post 494 he's moved back to OTU. Was this from lack of support for the Remus wagon, or did you change your mind?

Post 546, voting DGB(which I agree with), and no mention of Remus.(which XreyoX pointed out) Care to elaborate?

IH

Right now I'm having trouble metagaming that IH is town. This is my 4th game with IH. The other 3 he was scum every frickin time.

Post 110 looks like "fluffy town" post.

Aside from that, not much to analyze. Several posts are just "carrot in front of the horse."
Post 92- "Probably a pbp sometime....."
(I don't think there was anything between 111 & 242)
Post 243- "I will most definitely be rereading over the thread, as I feel detached from this game.
There may or may not be a giant IH post."
Post 264- "I'm sorry for being lax in this game, probably tonight I will give a giant post, but from post 259, I believe Reyo is town."
(I don't think there was anything between 260 & 379)
Post 380- "Meep, sorry guys. I'll try to do a little bit of a reread, as I've let this game get away from me."
(I don't think there was anything between 381 & 505)

Post 515 seems to be the 1st content-related. In it he hammers OTU which doesn't look good. However, if he was lurking scum, I think he would have known OTU would be lynched by the deadline. Therefore I believe IH genuinely believed OTU was scum and just made a bad call.(Of course that doesn't make him town. He could be rival scummer trying to get brownie points for lynching what he thought was scum.) He also attacks Al4xz which is a plus.

Vote DrippingGoofball

[remussaidow]

unvote. Computer crapped out, requesting replacement.

[Mastermind of Sin]

the "Uncle" should be someone al4 was expecting. No clue about whether he one who has killed him was the person he wanted to meet tho. I believe that he was targetted for the NK. The chance of both NK failing on the first day is very small.

Erm, what!?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncle

Read the second listed definition. It's quite obvious that that's how it was used in this death scene.

[Scarecrow]

Replacement, please. Exams are here.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm not particularly reading that deep into the night scene. I've been told it's dangerous to do so. Strangle? Uncle? Naaah.

As far as I see, there's a group called ESE. One of it's members had been NKed. There was only one nightkill. I'm using these three solid facts as a basis of my investigation.

I don't know what colour cults turn up in. Does anyone actually know? I've been looking around and there's not a single game where it's colour coded and there is a cult. This is probably the last piece of information I could get to determine if ESE is a scum or (still) could be a scum.

If he's a scum, he was very likely killed by canine group. And role block/doc prevented the mafia kill. If he's a cult, then he could have been killed by either canine or mafioso, and the other group has been blocked of NK by some way. That's how I see it.

Vote: Raffles

Whoever said it first was right. When I first read this post, my thought was "he doth protest too much".

Wolves do not strangle, the mod would not put information THAT misleading in the nightscene. Even if it wouldn't be as blatant as having his throat ripped out, our mod is clever enough to find a way to differentiate between the deaths.

[Raffles]

I protest too too much? I'm not sure I understand. Does that mean I should ignore and lurk? Or I should put aside what I think and just go with the flow? I don't like either of the option.

[XReyoX]

I don't think ESE is Cult. XreyoX already pointed out if he was cult, both scumgroups would have missed they're turn/been blocked. I can't imagine our blocker(s) getting that lucky.

I wasn't saying that he is not a cult. I just don't think he is a cult AND he died because he was trying to recruit a scum. A scum targetting a cult for NK could be what has happened. The reason why at least one kill is missing can be 1) the scum has targetted a town with bulletproofvest / wolvebane. 2) roleblocked 3)doc protection 4) both targetted alex (this would mean that alex is very likely a cult because his scummate wouldn't target him) 5) scum didn't send in their kill (very unlikely).

[Raffles]

So MoS, if you think I am so wrong that it warrants a vote, what do you propose?

[theopor_COD]

First off

unvote, vote Battle Mage

Read his posts in isolation, it's tough to find BM as scum because he always tends to act scummy but his last post makes me think we may have scum BM playing this game. He's looked to join a bandwagon again on Raffles whilst trying to throw dirt elsewhere namely at Reyox. I've no real read on DGB but her lack of participation may just be her style of play.

@theopor_COD, Fuldu, DGB: Are all your reasons listed in my list. Was those all the reasons that made you think OTU was the right lynch?

I'm not sure how yfine

Many

. But these are all the reasons I could find. If I've missed any of the, Pls add them back. Just read. If you think OTU was the right one to be lynch, I guess so are many players in this list.

Theopor_COD

#211. OTU's vote is opportunisitc but again I'd be just as wary as the early ppl on Reyox's early wagon. OTU's assesment on Battle Mage is just as scummy. I don't really like the way OTU has unvoted Reyox and then turned his attention on BM for supposed lurking.
#383. still not sure if OTU's the right lynch, will re-read asap.
#494. I'd guess THIS was a lie? Being as four days have passed since. “THIS = OTU saying -ACK! I had my whole post written up and I closed the window on accident. I'll re-write it in a bit I've gotta go for now.”

vote

OTU's lack of defence makes me think we had little choice. I'm not sure why he didn't at least claim, however with the deadline I think he was likely to be the only possible lynch and lynching someone gives us more information than a no lynch. Yes I wasn't certain of OTU being scum or town but his lack of defence aside from his post attacking BM amongst others was pretty much all he gave us.

Theopor_COD

Post 211 he defends BM some which could indicate partnering.(But, in post 414 he points out BM's scumminess for fishing in 260) He FOS's OTU & Scarecrow and then declares a hunch that MoS is scum. Now that a month is passed, do you still have that hunch and if so, could you elaborate on it? Also, what does the phrase "post some waffle" mean?

Post 414 & 417 He declares Remus to be more scummy than OTU.

By post 494 he's moved back to OTU. Was this from lack of support for the Remus wagon, or did you change your mind?

Post 546, voting DGB(which I agree with), and no mention of Remus.(which XreyoX pointed out) Care to elaborate?

Suspicion of MOS was random, he's not done anything overly obvious to worry me further at present, mind he's a good player so who knows. "Post some waffle" - just means posting rubbish, i.e totally irrelevant, guess it was in relation to WizardCat.

I found OTU relatively scummy whilst doing my re-read he was the leading wagon, so with two scums in the game chances are some pushed his wagon, remus jumped out at the time as being scum suspect number one to me. I'd need to re-read his latest posts to confirm if I still feel like that, but at the time he jumped out at me.

[XReyoX]

Read his posts in isolation, it's tough to find BM as scum because he always tends to act scummy but his last post makes me think we may have scum BM playing this game.

I'm not sure why he didn't at least claim, however with the deadline I think he was likely to be the only possible lynch and lynching someone gives us more information than a no lynch.

I dislike people who always act scummy no matter what alignmnt them have just to make their scum-life easier. Therefore I would not use this as a reason to let go of someone acting suspiciously.

I was thinking that maybe OTU had a post restriction of some sort which stopped him from posting. It fits quite well with the "retired" role. The search function was down before, so I could find it out. However, the function is now restored and a quick search has shown that his last post in the forum is on April3, meaning that he was lurking or decided not to claim. It is simply that he didn't know we were asking him to claim after his last post.

[XReyoX]

...meaning that he

was

lurking or decided not to claim. It is simply that he didn't know we were asking him to claim after his last post.

*wasn't

[Raffles]

Retired cop is a cop who comes back to duty when a normal cop dies, nothing to do with the post restriction.

[XReyoX]

This is a theme game. Weird things could happen.

[Raffles]

Yes but we are actually given a generic role name for retired cop. (e.g. Insane cop, vig, is a generic name. ESE on the other hand, isn't). And the role for retired cop is made clear on the wiki.

[spectrumvoid]

Well given either no lynch or OTU, which one would you want? I know which one I would go for.

I've seen a lot of scum use the either no lynch or lynch anyone argument much more than town. I also don't like the way Raffles is using this as an excuse to defend himself. And the unvote thing is also messing with my head.

That makes no sense. If I was a scum, why would it matter to me if I lynch a scum or a townie? Sure, it might be a better idea to lynch the opponent scum, but I wouldn't be a one to bitch so long as I don't lynch my scummate.

Deciding whether to lynch scum or townie is a very important decision if you're scum. It has to do with game balance. For example, if scum manages to lynch the other scum group, it increases their chances of staying alive, as opposed to lynching a townie.

The only scum-tell I'm getting from BM now is he's too townie thing, and I don't have much else on him.

[XReyoX]

Remus strikes scummy to me after reading akbar's analysis. This is my conclusion from the re-read of his posts

#126:

Otu [vote:2], Kison[3] , and Reyo[3] looks the most suspicious to me, but no one stands out as needing an additional vote... yet.

He gave me an impression that his vote is dependent on the the size of the wagon, not only who he thinks is scummy. somehow sounds like he was waiting for one of the wagon to build up so that he could join.
#201 :

Raffles, Kison, OtU, and reyo all seem to just be convienent targets right now.

Thinking in the way of a scum again.
#245 : FOS me for the use of "we". Later saying that I could be a mason as the reason for FOS.
I agree with MoS #258:

you(Remus) brought up that you think he(me) might be a mason, which is information that should NOT be speculated on publicly if you're protown.

#273 : posted some random crap, haven't mention anything about the issue anymore.
#289 :

vote: OtU because I think that he is the slightly scummier of the two candidates. this vote is very likely to come off though.

I agree with Akbar that the "likely to come off" thing doesn't look town. No reasons were given for the vote as well.
#381 :

I still think OTU is the scummiest.

Reinforce his vote. no further reasons given.
#400:

I think that OTU isn't lynched yet because his scum group doesn't want to bus him.

Copied Mr Flay's reason as his own.

Voting pattern: see theopor_COD's #417. I still agree with him.

[Raffles]

Well given either no lynch or OTU, which one would you want? I know which one I would go for.

I've seen a lot of scum use the either no lynch or lynch anyone argument much more than town. I also don't like the way Raffles is using this as an excuse to defend himself. And the unvote thing is also messing with my head.

That makes no sense. If I was a scum, why would it matter to me if I lynch a scum or a townie? Sure, it might be a better idea to lynch the opponent scum, but I wouldn't be a one to bitch so long as I don't lynch my scummate.

Deciding whether to lynch scum or townie is a very important decision if you're scum. It has to do with game balance. For example, if scum manages to lynch the other scum group, it increases their chances of staying alive, as opposed to lynching a townie.

The only scum-tell I'm getting from BM now is he's too townie thing, and I don't have much else on him.

I've explained the unvote, if there is any specifics that weren't clear, tell me. The post about lynching OTU was made after I unvoted. I bet I'd have done your head in even more if I revoted again. I thought I'd save you and others from that confusion. But I decided OTU had to be lynched, with my vote or not.

2nd point. Isn't it a bit of a luxury for a scum to manipulate

the whole town

into lynching the person scum would like to? I would say that's a one awesome scum if s/he could do that. What I wrote there is at my level, I wouldn't be too bothered so long as it's not me or my scummate lynched.

[Phoebus]

Vote count:

1 Battle Mage (theopor_COD)
1 DrippingGoofball (Akbar)

4 Raffles (Battle Mage, Fuldu, Mastermind of Sin, Mr. Flay)

Not voting: 13

10 to lynch

[XReyoX]

#403 I asked, "3. How likely is OTU a scum? "
#404 raffles answered, "3. I would say much more likely than others, maybe a nudge below 70. "
#460 OTU said he was very busy, post coming soon.
#467 OTU said he closed his window accidentally, and was gonna re-write. (Last OTU post)
#448 raffles unvoted.

How did 2 "I can't post" post made him less scummy (actually more likely to be town) to you?