Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Phoebus]

Vote count:

1 Battle Mage (theopor_COD)
1 DrippingGoofball (Akbar)

4 Raffles (Fuldu, Kison, Mastermind of Sin, Mr. Flay)

1 XReyoX (Battle Mage)

Not voting: 12

10 to lynch

[XReyoX]

I don't know, I didn't say I agreed with his statement. I was just pointing out that, yes, scum DO know more than protown players, in general.

I was trying to point out that scum do not always know much more than town. Especially in this game. The 2 groups doesn't know each other. They know the other people who are in their team but the rest could be towns, could be scums.

[Kison]

Raffles' story does not match up.

Deadline 1: Monday the 9th - 1700 GMT

This is equivilent to Monday, April 9th - 12:00 noon EDT(all time stamps from here on out are EDT).

Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 1:39 pm

I'm not there to place the hammer when the deadline comes I'm afraid, someone else needs to do that.

Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 9:23 pm

Vote:OTU

Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 10:01 pm

That's a hammer, IH.

After this has been announced, and BEFORE the deadline even actually hit, who shows up when they said they wouldn't?

Posted: Sun Apr 08, 2007 5:06 pm

Okay I'm going to have a restricted access starting immediate until 16th. I may or may not be able to post once a day. I hope you don't find a need to replace me.

I find the above scenario possible in that Raffles may have known ahead of time that he wouldn't be there on the 9th, but that he would be there on the 8th. Seems a bit fishy to me, nontheless.

Secondly, I seem to recall Phoebus stating that we only needed

half

the majority in order to lynch OTU. We had well over that number when Raffles made these posts, so I'm not really sure why he wanted someone else to do the deed when it would have been nearly inevitable anyway.

[Mr. Flay]

I don't know, I didn't say I agreed with his statement. I was just pointing out that, yes, scum DO know more than protown players, in general.

I was trying to point out that scum do not always know much more than town. Especially in this game. The 2 groups doesn't know each other. They know the other people who are in their team but the rest could be towns, could be scums.

Some of us aer arguing that Raffles is the ESE Cult Leader. A Cult Leader is a particularly valuable role to his faction, because without his recruiting ability, the Cult has almost no chance of winning (they end up like an anti-town Mason group/SK with no Night Kill). So if Raffles thought his voting for OTU (who he knew was not in his Cult, and on D1 most likely a town mislynch) would draw fire tomorrow, he may have tried to back off.

And Raffles: No worries, I'm only staking my life

in this game

, not my entire career *cough*LoudmouthLee*cough*.

[XReyoX]

I think he was asking people to hammer at the very very last moment (on the 9th when he is not here)if nothing happens. But he also ignored the fact that 6 votes are enough for his lynch. no hammer needed.

[XReyoX]

@Flay. I think that backing off at that time would draw much fire than not, and it does. So i believe that if he is the leader, he would not have jumped off at that point just to be safe. quite a few people, e.g scarecrow, DGB hasn't provided good reasons, so surely, if he is on the wagon, the ones getting fired upon would be those people before him.

Also, if he know that OTU is a town lynch, he wouldn't have joined in the first place.

[XReyoX]

Just another thought. A cult wouldn't want to lynch the town because it means they would have less chance to win because a) fewer people to recruit, b) more chance for the leader to hit a scum and die). However, al4 looks quite opportunistic to lynch OTU. This doesn't agree with the theory that al4 is a cult.

I'm not sure if this is right.

[Raffles]

@Kison- I was going to London on monday morning to see my mates, being away for a week. I'm on BST.

As for second point, I think I had that confused with Mr. Flay's sytem.

I'm thinking I'm drawing most of the fire from MoS. Which is disconcerting. MoS compared to rest is like standing in Sommes with a party hat to walking the Oxford St. Not too sure what to make of this just yet.

[TBuG]

Still here, reading what I missed.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time.

But you see - I'm not even going to pretend I knew this. I didn't. So this factor was not in my calculation. And even then, why? If someone gave me this as a reason for lynching a newb scum, I would never go with it.

And why didn't you mention it on D1, if this was a tell?

I was busy with RL and inactive at the time, in nearly all my games. I could barely keep up with the thread, much less point out everything and explain it for you.

His actions before he disappeared are what made him seem more like newbie scum than newbie town. Everything pointed

in favor

of him being scum, with what little evidence there was.

So why did such a little evidence gather so many votes? Make up your mind, was he very scummy? Or not very? And if the latter, why did you not try to dissuade others from the deadline before it was in place?

By "little evidence", I was referring to the fact that it was Day 1, and there is rarely much evidence to lynch someone. However, the evidence against him was better than anything else I had seen presented, and I didn't see anyone else scummier at the time.

We could not be

sure

that he was scum, but there was no reason to suddenly get a "feeling" that he was protown.

There was for me and that was stalling votes. We must have completed this cycle a few times now.

stalling votes != protown player. What could possibly convince you that stalling votes means he's protown? The uninformed majority suddenly gets told that he's not scum? Or did the informed minority (scum) suddenly decide that they didn't want to lynch a protown player?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Just another thought. A cult wouldn't want to lynch the town because it means they would have less chance to win because a) fewer people to recruit, b) more chance for the leader to hit a scum and die). However, al4 looks quite opportunistic to lynch OTU. This doesn't agree with the theory that al4 is a cult.

I'm not sure if this is right.

That's a valid strategy later in the game, but not as important early in the game. Also, it would require al4 to be experienced enough to think of something like that. I've never heard of the guy before, so I don't think he's that experienced. I wouldn't bet on him having thought about it.

[Zindaras]

what is with you and your obssession of colors? Color coding

rarely

has any significance to the game, other than a convenient distinction between protown and antitown. Without further evidence, the color coding means nothing to us, except that we know he was scum.

Colour coding is most definitely an important part of a game where we know we have multiple scumgroups. An important way to catch scum is to look at links between players, but that way, we can only catch scum in the same scumgroup, not in any other scumgroup.

[Raffles]

Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time.

But you see - I'm not even going to pretend I knew this. I didn't. So this factor was not in my calculation.

And even then, why?

If someone gave me this as a reason for lynching a newb scum, I would never go with it.*snip*

*snip*

Unanswered question bolded.

By "little evidence", I was referring to the fact that it was Day 1, and there is rarely much evidence to lynch someone. However, the evidence against him was better than anything else I had seen presented, and I didn't see anyone else scummier at the time.

Actually there were few other very decent alternatives, including me. Except you've seem to have lost steam in pursuing me for reasons unfounded. And I think Akbar mentioned something about kison + remus. So I call bullshit on that. This put together with your policy of lynching rather than replace those who lost interest in the game, I find inconsistency.

stalling votes != protown player. What could possibly convince you that stalling votes means he's protown? The uninformed majority suddenly gets told that he's not scum? Or did the informed minority (scum) suddenly decide that they didn't want to lynch a protown player?

In reverse chronogical order:

Well wouldn't you think that if there really was a convincing case against him, he would have been lynched already, no? I looked back and

whilst there was no convincing case that he is a town, there was not very much for scum either.

I decided at the time that he didn't warrant a lynch. Hence I unvoted. We lynched more because of the deadline rather than a case against him. Don't kid yourself of that.

OTU on verge of lynch for very long time.
Maybe he is not worth the lynch?

I unvoted because of the following:

He was teeteering on lynch -2/1 for a very long time.
----> A sign that he was not worth the lynch?
----------> If he is not worth the lynch, why do I still have my vote on him?

He was disinterested in the game even near the lynch.
----> Cannot be bothered to stay in game? A boring role maybe?

All these gives me a bad gut feeling that OTU is a townie about to be lynched.


So I investigate further...

True there wasn't much to suggest he was a town in his post. But then there wasn't much to suggest he is a scum from his post

, apart from his opportunistic vote.
----> Not particularly a strong reason as I first thought it might be.
--------> Then I shouldn't have my vote on him. Unvote

When did I

ever

say "I am convinced that OTU is town"? Look at the first quote. You aren't even bothering to twist my words anymore, you are stating the opposite to suit your argument.

Vote: MoS

. Either that or someone is having a reading retention problems. Ironic.

what is with you and your obssession of colors? Color coding rarely has any significance to the game, other than a convenient distinction between protown and antitown. Without further evidence, the color coding means nothing to us, except that we know he was scum.

Because if there is some consistency for colour coding, then it would shed us light on what ESE could be. There’s consistent colour coding for scum, for townie, why shouldn’t there be one for the cult?

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

I'm thinking this is where the jumped conclusion (or so it appears to me) that I'm an ESE member. But I'm not getting how it works. Shed any light please?

You still have to explain to me your warped theory.

Unanswered question bolded.

[XReyoX]

That's a valid strategy later in the game, but not as important early in the game. Also, it would require al4 to be experienced enough to think of something like that. I've never heard of the guy before, so I don't think he's that experienced. I wouldn't bet on him having thought about it.

This is my first game and I've thought about it. you can't assume something is not true because it doesn't suit your "ese is cult" theory. I think wether he notice this if he is a cult would be equally likely. That's why i don't like ese is a cult at the moment.

[XReyoX]

and i don't understand why is it more important in late game than in early game either.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Because later in the game, there are less people overall to recruit from, and if you kill too many townies, the scum will just NK all the cult and win the game.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time.

But you see - I'm not even going to pretend I knew this. I didn't. So this factor was not in my calculation.

And even then, why?

If someone gave me this as a reason for lynching a newb scum, I would never go with it.*snip*

*snip*

Unanswered question bolded.

If I knew why this happened, I would have a Professor Mafia award for writing some sort of dissertation on why newbies do what they do. I just know that it's a common pattern to look for in newbies. Having not done something like that before myself, I wouldn't know why they do it. Perhaps they just can't think of anything good to say to defend themselves.

By "little evidence", I was referring to the fact that it was Day 1, and there is rarely much evidence to lynch someone. However, the evidence against him was better than anything else I had seen presented, and I didn't see anyone else scummier at the time.

Actually there were few other very decent alternatives, including me. Except you've seem to have lost steam in pursuing me for reasons unfounded. And I think Akbar mentioned something about kison + remus. So I call bullshit on that. This put together with your policy of lynching rather than replace those who lost interest in the game, I find inconsistency.

Lost steam? Wtf?

I don't have a policy of lynching rather than replacing those who disappear. However, the last part of the day was during a busy time in RL, and I was barely around in the thread. I knew he was lurking somewhat, but the last time I'd been truly active in the thread he was at least posting every once in a while, so I couldn't ask for his replacement.

stalling votes != protown player. What could possibly convince you that stalling votes means he's protown? The uninformed majority suddenly gets told that he's not scum? Or did the informed minority (scum) suddenly decide that they didn't want to lynch a protown player?

In reverse chronogical order:

Well wouldn't you think that if there really was a convincing case against him, he would have been lynched already, no? I looked back and

whilst there was no convincing case that he is a town, there was not very much for scum either.

I decided at the time that he didn't warrant a lynch. Hence I unvoted. We lynched more because of the deadline rather than a case against him. Don't kid yourself of that.

And if he was protown, why had he not been lynched yet? No one was speaking out

against

the lynch (at least not as far as I noticed), so why didn't the scum just off him?

OTU on verge of lynch for very long time.
Maybe he is not worth the lynch?

I unvoted because of the following:

He was teeteering on lynch -2/1 for a very long time.
----> A sign that he was not worth the lynch?
----------> If he is not worth the lynch, why do I still have my vote on him?

He was disinterested in the game even near the lynch.
----> Cannot be bothered to stay in game? A boring role maybe?

All these gives me a bad gut feeling that OTU is a townie about to be lynched.


So I investigate further...

True there wasn't much to suggest he was a town in his post. But then there wasn't much to suggest he is a scum from his post

, apart from his opportunistic vote.
----> Not particularly a strong reason as I first thought it might be.
--------> Then I shouldn't have my vote on him. Unvote

When did I

ever

say "I am convinced that OTU is town"? Look at the first quote. You aren't even bothering to twist my words anymore, you are stating the opposite to suit your argument.

Vote: MoS

. Either that or someone is having a reading retention problems. Ironic.

Now you're just twisting

my

words, hypocrit. I'm really tired of your semantic games, they aren't getting us anywhere. Whether or not you thought he was protown or just thought he wasn't scum, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that you are claiming that the circumstances surrounding his wagon convinced you that he was

not

a good lynch for the day, when by most logic it should've done the opposite. I'm not buying it.

what is with you and your obssession of colors? Color coding rarely has any significance to the game, other than a convenient distinction between protown and antitown. Without further evidence, the color coding means nothing to us, except that we know he was scum.

Because if there is some consistency for colour coding, then it would shed us light on what ESE could be. There’s consistent colour coding for scum, for townie, why shouldn’t there be one for the cult?

And how do you expect to find out if there is a color coding consistency until more than one scum is dead? Something like that has no bearing on today, because we don't have enough information to make a reasonable assumption based on coloring. There is no good reason for you to have been that concerned about color right now.

Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

I'm thinking this is where the jumped conclusion (or so it appears to me) that I'm an ESE member. But I'm not getting how it works. Shed any light please?

You still have to explain to me your warped theory.

Unanswered question bolded.

What? How do your actions on day 1 have any basis in my theory that you are an ESE member? Your day 1 actions merely strength my suspicion that you are scum. Your repeated denial of any possiblity of there being a cult is what makes me think you are an ESE member. This has been said multiple times before, so you should start paying more attention, please.

[Raffles]

So why wouldn't a cult just start off as hunting to lynch scum in the first place? A townie is not a threat to the cult. Scum is.

[Mastermind of Sin]

The town as a whole is still a thread to the cult. The scum kills townies for them at night. Since the cult is usually the smallest group to start with, they have the least chance of getting hit by a nightkill. Therefore, near the beginning of the game, it's nice to keep some scum around to nightkill townies and power roles. Otherwise, the scum die off too early and the town realizes there is a cult and starts searching for them. One of the main advantages of a cult is the element of surprise, although it looks like you lost it this game.

[Raffles]

*snip-snip*
If I knew why this happened, I would have a Professor Mafia award for writing some sort of dissertation on why newbies do what they do. I just know that it's a common pattern to look for in newbies. Having not done something like that before myself, I wouldn't know why they do it. Perhaps they just can't think of anything good to say to defend themselves.

So there is no reasonable explanation - then I hope you don't take it hard on yourself when I say I don't buy it.

(BTW the suggestion you given there is crap - a scum, newbie or not, it doesn't hurt for them to try if their life is on the line)

Lost steam? Wtf?

I don't have a policy of lynching rather than replacing those who disappear. However, the last part of the day was during a busy time in RL, and I was barely around in the thread. I knew he was lurking somewhat, but the last time I'd been truly active in the thread he was at least posting every once in a while, so I couldn't ask for his replacement.

That was miswording on my part - sorry about that. It is meant to read "you have a policy of replacing those lost interest rather than lynching". Still you had the opportunity to ask replace when he dissapeared after repeated requests for a claim. Why did you go for OTU rather than active targets, like me?

*snippy-di-snip*

Now you're just twisting

my

words, hypocrit. I'm really tired of your semantic games, they aren't getting us anywhere.

I'm not sure I understand. Without evidence, sounds like you are firing blank rounds.

Whether or not you thought he was protown or just thought he wasn't scum, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that you are claiming that the circumstances surrounding his wagon convinced you that he was

not

a good lynch for the day, when by most logic it should've done the opposite. I'm not buying it.

That makes the two of us then (referring to the beginning).

And how do you expect to find out if there is a color coding consistency until more than one scum is dead? Something like that has no bearing on today, because we don't have enough information to make a reasonable assumption based on coloring. There is no good reason for you to have been that concerned about color right now.

Okay... what are you suggesting? Let's see... the red colour might be a mason? Oh and let's make the scum blue. And werewolves green. In fact, why not make the protagonist group red? (Except I know this doesn't work because OTU was black). So could red be something neutral? I can go on forever making stuff up with colours if there are 0 conformity.

What? How do your actions on day 1 have any basis in my theory that you are an ESE member? Your day 1 actions merely strength my suspicion that you are scum. Your repeated denial of any possiblity of there being a cult is what makes me think you are an ESE member. This has been said multiple times before, so you should start paying more attention, please.

So which one am I? Cult? Scum? Which do you think is ESE? You know it's kinda hard to defend myself when I don't know what I am being accused for.

[Fuldu]

I'd like to request that, in the interest of keeping any potential cults in check, we back away from arguments that involve explaining how smart cults should play.

[spectrumvoid]

I second that request.

After consideration of all posts between Raffles and all others,

vote: Raffles

[DrippingGoofball]

Flay is definitely on to something with Raffles, very very clever, but somehow, Rafffles' defense sounds sincere. I am inclined to believe him at the moment, but I will keep a close look at him for the remainder of the game, because Flay's argument is a good one, and cannot be easily dismissed in my mind.

I am getting an increasing amount of townie vibes from XReyoX, and I feel this should be obvious to most people, therefore, MoS's hounding of XReyoX I bothering me. MoS is also hounding Raffles, but Flay has a good case against Raffles, so this strikes me as rather opportunistic. Since XReyoX was under some danger yesterday, I have to conclude that MoS is being opportunistic in his pursuance of both XReyoX and Raffles, though Raffles might be scum (perhaps the other scumgroup?).

For his opportunism in going after these two particular players, I...

vote: Mastermind of Sin

[Mastermind of Sin]

WTF, DGB? How am I "hounding" XReyoX? I haven't even said that I think he's scummy! In fact, Reyo and I have been having a rather mild conversation, so I'm having trouble seeing how you think I'm going after him...I'd like you to try and explain that to me, please.

Also, why am I suddenly scummy just because I was away when the game restarted after the crash? That's pretty much what you are suggesting, DGB, since the only reason this is "Flay's argument" is that he got to it first. I've done more than my share in providing my own reasoning, so it's not like I'm just jumping on the bandwagon. I think you need to reevaluate your logic there, DGB.

[Mastermind of Sin]

*snip-snip*
If I knew why this happened, I would have a Professor Mafia award for writing some sort of dissertation on why newbies do what they do. I just know that it's a common pattern to look for in newbies. Having not done something like that before myself, I wouldn't know why they do it. Perhaps they just can't think of anything good to say to defend themselves.

So there is no reasonable explanation - then I hope you don't take it hard on yourself when I say I don't buy it.

(BTW the suggestion you given there is crap - a scum, newbie or not, it doesn't hurt for them to try if their life is on the line)

Of course it doesn't hurt for them to try if their life is on the line. I know that, you know that. That's because we actually know what we are doing. However, I have seen people literally say that they can't think of any way to defend themselves when they get attacked, so they just go for the turtle-shell approach and hope it'll go away. Obviously, it's not a good strategy. That's why only the newbies actually use it, because they haven't realized what to do, yet.

Lost steam? Wtf?

I don't have a policy of lynching rather than replacing those who disappear. However, the last part of the day was during a busy time in RL, and I was barely around in the thread. I knew he was lurking somewhat, but the last time I'd been truly active in the thread he was at least posting every once in a while, so I couldn't ask for his replacement.

That was miswording on my part - sorry about that. It is meant to read "you have a policy of replacing those lost interest rather than lynching". Still you had the opportunity to ask replace when he dissapeared after repeated requests for a claim. Why did you go for OTU rather than active targets, like me?

Were you scummy for most of Day 1? That seems to be what you're implying. It's not about going after an active/inactive target. I don't factor activity into deciding whether or not to go after someone. If they seem scummy, I'll go after them. OTU seemed scummy, and his lurking reinforced this. I saw no one as a better choice for Day 1.

*snippy-di-snip*

Now you're just twisting

my

words, hypocrit. I'm really tired of your semantic games, they aren't getting us anywhere.

I'm not sure I understand. Without evidence, sounds like you are firing blank rounds.

You didn't read far enough. In fact, if you look just a few centimeters down, you'll find that you quoted the "evidence" you're asking me for. Fancy that, I actually explained myself in the same post that I made a statement? Who would've thought?

Whether or not you thought he was protown or just thought he wasn't scum, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that you are claiming that the circumstances surrounding his wagon convinced you that he was

not

a good lynch for the day, when by most logic it should've done the opposite. I'm not buying it.

That makes the two of us then (referring to the beginning).

And how do you expect to find out if there is a color coding consistency until more than one scum is dead? Something like that has no bearing on today, because we don't have enough information to make a reasonable assumption based on coloring. There is no good reason for you to have been that concerned about color right now.

Okay... what are you suggesting? Let's see... the red colour might be a mason? Oh and let's make the scum blue. And werewolves green. In fact, why not make the protagonist group red? (Except I know this doesn't work because OTU was black). So could red be something neutral? I can go on forever making stuff up with colours if there are 0 conformity.

Are you

trying

to make it look like you have an IQ of 50, or is it natural?

What? How do your actions on day 1 have any basis in my theory that you are an ESE member? Your day 1 actions merely strength my suspicion that you are scum. Your repeated denial of any possiblity of there being a cult is what makes me think you are an ESE member. This has been said multiple times before, so you should start paying more attention, please.

So which one am I? Cult? Scum? Which do you think is ESE? You know it's kinda hard to defend myself when I don't know what I am being accused for.

Wow, you sure are thickheaded. How many repititions does it take to get it through your head that Cult = scum? Scum != mafia in particular. Scum is a generic word for any antitown role. Hence, calling you scum meant that the evidence pointed to you being antitown. Calling you Cult means that further evidence has narrowed you down to not only being scum, but being cult, specifically.