Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Mr. Flay]

This is all very interesting, but I'd like to see more people participating in the discussion. Back-and-forth between a few players does very little to help us find scum later.

Raffles, it's not so much that you weren't sure OTU wasn't scum as that you

still wanted him lynched by somebody

(but not you) despite that doubt. I think you're panicking today, which makes me think we're right. This is orthagonal to the ESE/Mafia/Cult discussion, which is highly speculative, except for the part where you've opposed vehemently the possibility until now.

[Raffles]

What I find more interesting than the target of the kill is the target's role and the amount of kills we've seen. ESE Member can really be anything. The fact that he came up red implicates scum. I'd say that Cult would be purple...that's the Cult's colour (or, well, it's what I think the Cult's colour is...). He can't be SK, because a Member implies that there are other people in this ESE-crap. So my guess would be that he's Mafia, because Werewolves aren't, well, human, and al4xz was. So he'd be the Werewolves' kill, and the Mafia's probably failed.

MoS, who says cult can't be different colour?

[Raffles]

Raffles, it's not so much that you weren't sure OTU wasn't scum as that you

still wanted him lynched by somebody

(but not you) despite that doubt. I think you're panicking today, which makes me think we're right. This is orthagonal to the ESE/Mafia/Cult discussion, which is highly speculative, except for the part where you've opposed vehemently the possibility until now.

No, I'm getting irate because everyone is getting me wrong. Including you. I would have hammered him. But due to my schedule (believe it or not, MS is not the first priority in my life) I could not place hammer on OTU, so told someone else to do it to ensure that D1 didn't end in no lynch.

I've opposed the idea because for now until someone tells me the colour of the cult, it is more plausible to think that ESE is a mafia. I've repeatedly asked someone to give me the colour. If the colour of cult is red, only then the theory of cult is just as likely as theory of mafia. This is why I stuck with mafia theory.

[Raffles]

Has anyone played in a game where there is a cult and the alignments colour coded?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3189
scum = red. cult=green

THANK YOU! Cult theory suck my credentials.

[Raffles]

... and MoS

Replacements:
3. MoS (days 1 and 2 only)

Is it possible that you could have known about this game?

[Mastermind of Sin]

What I find more interesting than the target of the kill is the target's role and the amount of kills we've seen. ESE Member can really be anything. The fact that he came up red implicates scum. I'd say that Cult would be purple...that's the Cult's colour (or, well, it's what I think the Cult's colour is...). He can't be SK, because a Member implies that there are other people in this ESE-crap. So my guess would be that he's Mafia, because Werewolves aren't, well, human, and al4xz was. So he'd be the Werewolves' kill, and the Mafia's probably failed.

MoS, who says cult can't be different colour?

They can be, but they don't have to be.

[XReyoX]

Okay I'm going to have a restricted access starting immediate until 16th. I may or may not be able to post once a day. I hope you don't find a need to replace me.

Reinforcement.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Has anyone played in a game where there is a cult and the alignments colour coded?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3189
scum = red. cult=green

THANK YOU! Cult theory suck my credentials.

armlx != this game's mod. All you've done is shown that a mod once gave the cult a different color. That doesn't mean anything, especially since we don't know what color the mod is giving "regular" scum, or if he's even using different colors. For example, when I mod a game, blue usually means protown, red means antitown, and green means neutral. Cults are not neutral, so dead cults would be red in any game I modded.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Raffles, it's not so much that you weren't sure OTU wasn't scum as that you

still wanted him lynched by somebody

(but not you) despite that doubt. I think you're panicking today, which makes me think we're right. This is orthagonal to the ESE/Mafia/Cult discussion, which is highly speculative, except for the part where you've opposed vehemently the possibility until now.

No, I'm getting irate because everyone is getting me wrong. Including you. I would have hammered him. But due to my schedule (believe it or not, MS is not the first priority in my life) I could not place hammer on OTU, so told someone else to do it to ensure that D1 didn't end in no lynch.

I've opposed the idea because for now until someone tells me the colour of the cult, it is more plausible to think that ESE is a mafia. I've repeatedly asked someone to give me the colour. If the colour of cult is red, only then the theory of cult is just as likely as theory of mafia. This is why I stuck with mafia theory.

what is with you and your obssession of colors? Color coding

rarely

has any significance to the game, other than a convenient distinction between protown and antitown. Without further evidence, the color coding means nothing to us, except that we know he was scum.

[Mastermind of Sin]

... and MoS

Replacements:
3. MoS (days 1 and 2 only)

Is it possible that you could have known about this game?

Why don't you got back to that thread and quote some posts of mine there. I'm sure you'll find your answer.

[Raffles]

armlx != this game's mod. All you've done is shown that a mod once gave the cult a different color. That doesn't mean anything, especially since we don't know what color the mod is giving "regular" scum, or if he's even using different colors. For example, when I mod a game, blue usually means protown, red means antitown, and green means neutral. Cults are not neutral, so dead cults would be red in any game I modded.

If they don't mean anything then why were you quoting me all those games before whenever I say "_____ is unlikely"? It only means something when it suits your agenda?

[Mastermind of Sin]

No, because you're trying to quote past games to prove to me that something is

true

. I'm quoting past games to prove that your assertion that something can't/won't happen in a game is

false

. Since not all mods do things the same way, past games can't be used to predict what the mod will and will not do (except sometimes past games by the same mod). However, they can be used to show what is

possible

, because saying something is possible is not asserting that it

has

to be true in that particular case, just merely stating that you can't rule it out without specific evidence pointing to the contrary.

[XReyoX]

I think the agruement about cult=?colour has gone far too uneccessary.

I strongly believe red= antitown. So al4 is antitown. It doesn't mean he is an ordinary scum/ cult. If he is a cult, he is "extremely" unlikely to be the cult leader.

In my understanding, the reason put forth saying raffles is buddied with al4, being a cult, because he doesn't believe that there is a cult in this game (or trying to convince people that there is no cult in this game), is not very convincing to me. He doesn't stand out more than other that he has some kind of link with al4 before, so no one would be speculating that he is one if he doesn't comment about it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.

It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.

Once again you are trying to use results to justify a previous action. Logic doesn't work that way. The only way you could've known that he wasn't scum

before

he was lynched was to be scum yourself, as BM pointed out. He gave off every indication of a scum who felt pressured and gave up, disappearing from the thread. There was no indication that he could be town, certainly not enough to justify this "gut" of yours.

That's rubbish. A pressured scum gives up? I can understand a pressured townie giving up. How could you know that he was

scum

that gave up? There is certainly no "overwhelming" evidence to justify that he was a scum. A scum giving up makes much less sense. Given a townie or scum, townie is much more likely to give up in face of death due to their lack of powers.

The only way I could've known - yea right. Did I ever say this? "I definitely knew for sure that OTU wasn't a scum. Try this.

I didn't know

. But I had a bad feeling about it. Okay?

Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time. His actions before he disappeared are what made him seem more like newbie scum than newbie town. Everything pointed

in favor

of him being scum, with what little evidence there was. We could not be

sure

that he was scum, but there was no reason to suddenly get a "feeling" that he was protown.

[Battle Mage]

who said that Al3xz tried to recruit a mafia member?
certainly not me.

Vote: xreyox

-you seem to know far more than a protown player would.

I'm going to repeat again.

Al4 being a cult =/= 2 failed NK.

Assuming there are 3 mafia and 3 wolves (like the other game).

both scum group targetted alex has a probability of 14/(17^2)= 4.8%

1 group targetted alex and the other got protected = (17 x 2) /(17 x 19) = 10.4%

*no blocker / immune role included. chance would be higher than 10.4% if these are include.

@BM: use some logic.
if there were 2 missed NK and alx died because he tried to recruit a scum. The chance is
(6/19)(17/(17x19))^2= 8.7 x 10^-2 %.

Its like saying "i wouldn't be suprised if i win the lottery even tho it has one in a billionth chance of happening, because someone win it everyday"

[XReyoX]

Players' activity overview

Player-[Post count].Last post

Akbar[14]- Apr 23
BM[33] - Apr 24
Bird [6]- Apr 23
DGB [6] - Apr 21
Fuldu [17] - Apr 23
IH [18] - Apr 22
Kison [53] - Apr 23
MoS [41] - Apr 24
Flay [35] - Apr 24

-PBuG [21] - Apr 07

Raffles [107] - Apr 24
Remus [46] -Apr 23 (requesting replacement)
scarecrow [16] - Apr 23 (requesting replacement)
SV [3] - Apr 23
Theopor_cod [16] - Apr 23
-

wizardcat [5] - Mar 25

Reyo [143] - Apr 24
Zindy [5] - Apr 20
-

N9V [9] - Apr 09

Please prod highlighted player mod. Many Thx

I would like to urge people with less than 20 post to try and contribute. Just a few of us trying to fire posts at each other isn't helping much.

@BM:
1) scum = know more than protown player? o.0
2) I'm stating the possibility. If 2 NK missed. why did alex died then? Someone did suggest that he might be a cult leader. Read. I'll quote it for you if i find it later.

[XReyoX]

is it possible al4zx targeted scum and that's why he died? If so, that would mean probably two other roleblockers/doctors, which would be a good setup with so many anti-town groups IMO.

[XReyoX]

As I've stated in the calculation. I didn't put a few factors in. and I was assuming that there are 3 scums in each group judging purely on the first game. It is to show what you said could have happen is soooooooo unlikely. They are just for comparison.

To be honest, voting you randomly and get the lynch right is 300 times more likely than what you said have happened. I would seiously bet on it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Actually, Reyo, yes. Scum = know more than protown player. You know, that's sortof the basis behind mafia in general? Informed minority vs. Uninformed majority? You

do

know what "informed" means, right?

[XReyoX]

informed = scum / cop / mason / roleblock/doc who successfully prevented a kill.

[Mastermind of Sin]

It depends on what information you're talking about.

[XReyoX]

Well. then I would depend on what "reyo seems to know far more information than a protown player" means by BM

What sort of info does he think I know which a pro-town player shouldn't

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't know, I didn't say I agreed with his statement. I was just pointing out that, yes, scum DO know more than protown players, in general.

[Phoebus]

Vote count:

1 Battle Mage (theopor_COD)
1 DrippingGoofball (Akbar)

4 Raffles (Fuldu, Kison, Mastermind of Sin, Mr. Flay)

1 XReyoX (Battle Mage)

Not voting: 12

10 to lynch

[Raffles]

Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time.

But you see - I'm not even going to pretend I knew this. I didn't. So this factor was not in my calculation. And even then, why? If someone gave me this as a reason for lynching a newb scum, I would never go with it.

And why didn't you mention it on D1, if this was a tell?

His actions before he disappeared are what made him seem more like newbie scum than newbie town. Everything pointed

in favor

of him being scum, with what little evidence there was.

So why did such a little evidence gather so many votes? Make up your mind, was he very scummy? Or not very? And if the latter, why did you not try to dissuade others from the deadline before it was in place?

We could not be

sure

that he was scum, but there was no reason to suddenly get a "feeling" that he was protown.

There was for me and that was stalling votes. We must have completed this cycle a few times now.