Lynch All Lurkers Mafia! GAME OVER

[ortolan]

hello scumbags

Vote: roflcopter

[ortolan]

Vote: zwet

i suspect that this game is balanced much like a normal double day mafia game, rather than trying to be balanced in any way towards assuming scum will ever get away with lurking 72 hours.

if they do, the town deserved the punishment of an extra scum kill.

play like its a regular game, ignoring the extra scumkill mechanic, unless someone doesn't post for 72 hours. at that point, lynch the offender with impunity.

I concur.

What about RL issues?

This is scummy for two reasons.

Firstly by the sign-ups thread, game title and game rules one can tell that this is a potential ploy that can be used by scum and thus optimal strategy is to policy lynch anyone who lurks more than 72 hours- hence the creation of the whole "anti-lurking" dynamic to begin with. Thus you should know that RL issues cannot be taken as an excuse (nothing can, that's the whole point of this game) for not having posted.

Secondly, the notion that you could have RL issues preventing you playing/posting in the near future is highly implausible as you are presumably in about 20 games on this site and if you were absent for that period of time you would likely screw several of them up, not merely this one. Thus I can't imagine you using it to defend yourself, and don't see any townie reason why you'd want to use it to defend other people.

[ortolan]

As a side note, the thought just occurred to me (may as well say it now in case I forget later), that towards endgame we will need to be very careful about letting people lurk through the first and especially second lynch of the day. While we've got a wagon going on one person the scum might lurk enough to get an additional night-kill (or several if they have multiple players alive and are willing to sacrifice one to get say, 3 extra night-kills in order to endgame that night) and then endgame.

[ortolan]

Please explain my change in meta. I'm acting more serious than usual? Is that a bad thing? Are meta changes in general a bad thing? Antihero, so half of your "case" is confusion over my early silly posts, the first of which was NOT an excuse to lurk at all, and parroting of someone else's unfounded paranoia. tajo, why don't you actually read the 7P game if you're so anxious to find some scum meta on me. I was also scum in Red Horse mafia, if it matters.

I think this is the most serious/earnest I've ever seen zwet, and possibly his longest post also. Scared scum.

[ortolan]

Claim please zwetty

[ortolan]

"Paraphrasing your PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim can take a lifetime."

Quoted for truth.

[ortolan]

does anyone else find it suspicious he goes V/LA for the first time ever after joining this game?

[ortolan]

let's see when he next posts then

[ortolan]

just let him claim yeah, it can't hurt (assuming he doesn't lurk through another day and a half).

[ortolan]

Vote: MafiaSSK

where did he explicitly claim a PR though?

Either way, he's going to be absolutely no use with a PR like that as town and I'm assuming he hopes to use it to fly under the radar as scum (cause someone with such a strong PR would "forget" to post because they can't say much).

I was surprised he signed up for this of all games to be honest. My only experience with him previously was when he was scum and...spent most of his time lurking. But I believe he lurks as both town and scum. Still his lynch is very, very desirable.

[ortolan]

I still don't see it.

[ortolan]

@ 267 (image) you are cleverer than I, I wouldn't even have noticed that.

Which game was that orto?

Serum & Steel. I was actually one of the last to get on your wagon (/slaps myself ) but it was obvious you were scum when instead of answering people's questions you chose to lurk until the point you were lynched.

It's a PR that discourages communication.

On MafiaSSK? Oh, the irony.

Agreed, LuL

I would be perfectly happy policy-lynching MafiaSSK in a game like this- you just know he's going to lurk and you're not going to know whether it's from a scum or just him-being-him agenda. The fact he's been blatantly scummy with a dodgy PR claim (and thus can't really be of any use anyway) is just the icing on the cake.

[ortolan]

I want to hear the rationale of those who are not voting MafiaSSK; for not voting MafiaSSK

here is the game in which he was scum: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9752

[ortolan]

MafiaSSK needs to be lynched. Even if not today he's going to be lynched. Anyone stalling is scum.

[ortolan]

Under the heading "weird scumtells," ortolan doesn't have a bee in his bonnet calling me scum all the time. That's not something I've ever seen before, I'm not sure which column it fits in.

In the two completed games I've played with you, Suzumi and Election Mafia, I did this in neither. Otherwise I cannot discuss ongoing games with you.

My analysis of ortolan is pretty middle of the road, what's to "strongly disagree with?"

To be fair most of your case against me was contingent on this- e.g. your point that I've gone after MafiaSSK "much harder" carries pretty much no weight when you acknowledge I was the second person on zwet's wagon.

roflcopter, I'm not necessarily sure we can glean that much from the zwet wagon- I personally didn't feel at all *sure* he was scum when I voted for him, but felt the wagon was very worth pursuing for reactions. It just so happened we were correct though, and zwet subsequently validated the wagon with further scummy play.

I would like some more attention on the claimed daymasons:

1) I wonder if Yos has a reputation for truly randomising his roles. If not Stephoscope and MafiaSSK, are two extremely lurky players from what I recall previously. It seems odd firstly that they would sign up for this game, and secondly that they would claim to be paired together. If Yos felt like distributing the scum roles to players with a lurky meta who were more likely to get away with it, this is something to consider (this point may well be complete trash though depending on Yos' modding style).

2) I do not see the possible benefits of faking a PR as town. MafiaSSK: please explain what you hoped to accomplish.

3) They both have claimed conflicting role-based information about one another: Stephoscope claims his/her? partner is confirmed, MafiaSSK has contradicted this


4)

For how many posts in a row are you going to focus on me when there's obvscum everywhere?

I disagree that there is obvscum anywhere and don't understand where this confidence comes from.

5) I don't see why Stephoscope didn't want to "implicate" her mason buddy by naming them to begin with.

6)

Doesn't bother me any. Flip scum, and everything you post will be at worst worthless, and at best, clues towards finding the rest of you (although it should be apparent I think we pretty much have you beat already)

Is this a joke? It's just stupid.

Hmm. So the mason PM probably looks something like this... (this is a guess based on what mason PMs usually look like)

You are a day mason with MafiaSSK. You and your partner can talk with each other outside the thread during the day. You win when all of the scum are dead, and there is at least one pro-town player still alive.

Your confusion was that you thought "you" applied to both of you, rather than just you personally.

Makes sense, I guess.

Did you just hypothesise for him a way he might not be scummy? Assuming the role pm was in fact worded like this, there's no way I would interpret it as confirming my partner- it looks just like how I'd expect a non-confirmed mason pm to look.

I cannot confirm or deny how much your PM looks like the one I received, but yes, "you" being interpreted as plural in the win condition (vs. a switch to singular or arbitrary) is the exact source of the disconnect between my earlier confidence and later confusion/hesitation to answer.

See above. How come MafiaSSK had no problems interpreting it?

I was under the impression MafiaSSK has already admitted his PR was faked, but if not:

Steph: please ask in mason-chat for his explanation for his PR.

ortolan. Not much to say of him other than he was an early zwet wagoner that gives him some townie points. His "this is the most serious zwet Ive seen" is valid but then even though he has managed to post every day

I dont feel he has posted much other than pushing SSK after zwet flipping scum

. He has played with zwet before, knows his meta and he could have been catched busing in the rolf agression against zwet.

MafiaSSK. Strange PR. Medium zwet wagoner for no reason at all. Other than that, zero scumhunting and only defending game. Potential fake PR. Unconfirmed mason with SSK the most likely to be scum. No use of the mason QT. Overall bad feeling. We are in a healthy position and if its time to lynch someone as SSK we have to prob do it today.

Unvote Vote : MafiaSSK.

Yer, this is definitely worth a few scumpoints. For reference he (moderately) attacks me for...being on the wagon of a scumplayer then...voting for someone who

he himself votes for at the end of his post?

Potajo, why did you claim you could prove you are town when you could not do anything of the sort?

I want an answer to this too. It's actually one of the least confirmable claims. Election Mafia just finished with a mafia tracker. Plus it's day one so you can't have haven't tracked anyone yet.

[ortolan]

How do you think I can prove I am town when I am a tracker with a player that is prob town?

What does "a tracker with a player that is prob town?" mean?

Thats why I said that when I fully claimed I lost my only opportunity to confirm myself.

So why did you breadcrumb/softclaim that you

could

prove yourself to begin with, essentially obligating us to force you to full-claim?

Also I have done this as town before (RR game when I said DGB that I could prove I was town only with the power of my claim).

What, you've needlessly outed yourself as a power-role previously? I would have thought you'd learnt from that then.

[ortolan]

@ point, I still have no idea what you're claiming because there was no night-one, unless you are claiming tracker-mason or something similar?

[ortolan]

ortolan is attacking townies.

You know this how? You think the 8 or so points I raised against MafiaSSK/Stephoscope were all invalid? You think your case against me is still valid, despite the primary premise being incorrect? You don't find anything wierd/inconsistent about the comments tajo made about me in his post?

[ortolan]

hint: the bet doesn't apply if DGB is scum and hasn't in fact fooled you, because you're her scumbuddy (this only means that I hate WIFOM-tastic comments like the above)

[ortolan]

not my point- you said I am attacking townies- the people I am largely attacking are MafiaSSK and Stephoscope- how do you know they are town?

[ortolan]

so you agree with me on Mafia/Steph or...?

[ortolan]

(2) Satan is more townie than MafiaSSK.

Is this a reference to his meta or what?

Steph: how would you feel about lynching MafiaSSK?

[ortolan]

so, you think he is scum this game then....?

[ortolan]

I can easily see him as a scum mason. At the same time, I do believe Steph is a likely town mason.

I don't get the thought process here. If he is a scum mason then necessarily Steph is a town mason. Otherwise they are just plain ole' scum together.

[ortolan]

A policy lynch is undesirable, but necessary

Vote: Antihero

in anticipation

also to reset my lurk-o-meter

[ortolan]

necessary; that is, assuming he gets over the 72 hour threshold

[ortolan]

I believe the day finished two or so hours before antihero was able to earn any lurker-points.

vote: populartajo

waiting for results also

[ortolan]

I'm not liking ortolan's jumping on poptajo's at dawn.

o rly

This feels like preplanned vote.

What does that even mean?

If you are town perhaps you shouldn't have soft-claimed ("my role can prove I am town") without a critical mass of votes on you, then proceeded to claim a role which...cannot be confirmed at all then proceed to...not get night-killed. Now you've continued to be very scummy by claiming:

I targetted SSK but I was roleblocked.

Now, when people are role-blocked in a non-open setup, I'm not very inclined to think the mod actually specifically tells them they were role-blocked, but rather tells them "no result", or "no action", or something similar. So...how do you know you were role-blocked, and do you acknowledge that in fact, despite your earlier claim to be able to prove you're town, not only are you not able to do so, but if you are indeed town your actions can only be considered horribly anti-town?

For what it's worth, you also initially failed to vote zwet with the following excuse:

Tajo is well known by his hate of votes on someone he calls the easy target when his scummy behaviour is typical in all his games.

Now at the very least, you should objectively agree that you look very scummy and should be able to see where I'm coming from. But you don't, and make the vague and meaningless insinuation "that vote looked pre-planned". So, yes, you're scum.

Current scumteam shotgun: image, Antihero, ortolan.

Explain, scum.

I prefer a tajo then contingently DGB-lynch. Kind of a shame we don't have three lynches today for a pt, DGB, MafiaSSK combo- we could win this game in short order.

DGB, I hope you haven't forgotten:

And about tajo... I have this hair raising in the back of my neck that, like zwet, he's not being his usual self.

[ortolan]

ortolan: Why were you voting Antihero yesterday?

A policy lynch is undesirable, but necessary

Vote: Antihero

in anticipation

also to reset my lurk-o-meter

It was in anticipation of him getting over the lurker-threshold. I didn't expect Malyss to get lynched so quickly (in part because of antihero's lurking I believe, thus people felt it desirable to end the day a bit quicker to prevent him getting over the 72-hour mark).

I would otherwise have greatly favoured a MafiaSSK lynch at the time. Now either tajo or him are good targets.

Although ortolan has taken a shot at explaining this, his explanation doesn't really do it for me. It does nothing to dispel the feeling I got on reading it, that feeling would be that ortolan already knew what the claim would be.

I don't even care if this stretched into a scum-tell (rather oddly I might add). I always said his claim was scummy. It's his fault for making a claim at all on day one in the absence of sufficient pressure, and secondly saying that a claim which is inherently improvable on day one (and now day two), could confirm him. Note that here you assume I am scum and not he, because by massaging in the suggestion I'm a roleblocker you can now explain any subsequent nights where poptajo doesn't report a result, until I die.

However, I'm not convinced of potajo's towniness either. Bussing is a possibility that explains both feelings, but it doesn't make much sense given the day one scum lynch.

Having your cake and eating it too. "poptajo might be scum, he might not, but either way ortolan is scum".

Has Ortolan ever said he finds Xyl scummy, because this was weird:

Current scumteam shotgun: image, Antihero, ortolan.

Explain, scum.

Also because ortolan goes on to explain we should lynch dgb, tajo, and mafiassk, with no further mention of Xyl.

Saying I am scummy without

any

previous mention whatsoever or explanation in that post is likely to elicit this sort of reaction. It's certainly no worse than his baseless comment to begin with. I still have no reason for wanting him lynched because all he's done is mention my name on a suspicions list. I would like an explanation, as asked previously, however.

I hate the DGB wagon, I think ortolan planned my lynch today and Ill explain when I have the time. Tonight.

Perhaps you'll explain why you thought, as town, your role-claim was a good move to begin with in the process.

[ortolan]

oh and populartajo still hasn't explained how he "knows" he was role-blocked. In people's experience, how many mods say "you were role-blocked" as opposed to "you got no result" or something similar? There are other conceivable role interactions which could cause no result, after all.

[ortolan]

Not proof, it's still entirely consistent with you being scum though.

Scum text-book fake-claim: Claim day 1, then claim to consistently be role-blocked for the rest of the game.

Town claim: When about to be strung up, claim power-role to avoid being strung up today, and usually be deferred to the night's night-kill.

1) Why did you claim on day one?

2) Why did you target MafiaSSK?

3) Why did you only vote me when prompted repeatedly?

[ortolan]

So...your comment didn't really have any relevance then?

[ortolan]

I can just imagine poptajo anticipating that and making that claim in the first place. It's entirely down to WIFOM. He still has to explain why he took obviously anti-town actions if he is town.

[ortolan]

(in response to 1226)

[ortolan]

I don't need to explain your anti-town actions, you do

[ortolan]

I can see why potajo would want to get the "monkey off his back" so to speak.

But he didn't at all, which is the point. If he is town he has guaranteed he is going to look very, very scummy up until he dies.

[ortolan]

If it's down to WIFOM, as you say, why are you stubbornly trying to take down a power role?

Timing of claim suspect ergo alternative hypothesis that he is in fact scum more likely + if he is town then he's guaranteed useless until scum role-blocker is killed (which assuming evidence for one-killing faction, would only happen when scum role-blocker is lynched, in which case he would be killed following night anyhow), meaning his power-role has no value anyhow.

Get it guys, his power-role is actually confirmed

useless

[ortolan]

yes, ortolan-scum thinks the best play is to substantially increase the amount of suspicion/attention on himself by going after a claimed power-role instead of comfortably continuing to role-block the player every night, every day making him look more suspicious.

[ortolan]

I like Stephoscope

[ortolan]

^^ LOL

[ortolan]

I feel most strongly about ortolan being scum. However, I have to acknowledge that I have yet to find ortolan town in any game. It's just one of these things. I know it, I lower the bar for my scumdar, and every time he pushes the threshold. I am not a reliable judge of ortolan, but I will continue to challenge him as need be.

This has been an oddly recent trend and I'm increasingly suspecting it's more to do with the contents of your own role pm than anything I've done.

[ortolan]

damnit, I'm writing a post saying why DGB among others is obv-scum. Hopefully it's not redundant by the time it gets posted.

[ortolan]

Here are three scumbags, I would be happy to lynch any of them:

DGB: I think DGB is under the (not necessarily untrue, depending on the playerlist) impression I am easy to mislynch as town.

As of DGB's 1374, her suspects list contains two people (myself and roflcopter) who were first and second on the lynch of the only scumbag in this game currently. Now, it is not disputed that busing is a strategy sometimes employed by mafia. However, without evidence suggesting that a certain scenario is a likely "busing" scenario, the mere fact that two people were first and second on the lynch of a scumbag is simply a very, very bad reason for suspecting them. If for example, myself or roflcopter had a meta of busing their scumbuddies (I actually don't honestly know in his case, but I certainly don't, I've only done so once when it was absolutely necessary and instrumental in us winning the game), and she brought this evidence to the table, this would be understandable.

As it is, she insists with the a priori improbable notion that both roflcopter and I are scum, with little reasoning beyond us busing our scumbuddy (and the point I'll make below).

She is also scummy for reasons relating to the other people on my scumlist.

She has taken the side of poptajo in the great WIFOM battle:

poptajo suggests that myself (and possibly also roflcopter now) deliberately put pressure on him for results having role-blocked him as scum, because we know he can't deliver. It is of course, certainly plausible that I (or roflcopter, but I'll concentrate on defending myself here) might do this as scum, but again, that's not enough of a reason for it actually being scummy. It is also perfectly explainable from a town point of view- suspicious of tajo not being night-killed after claiming a power-role on day one, I voted him for pressure purposes. You have no evidence one possibility is more likely than another, so this essentially boils down to WIFOM.

Unfortunately, there are

additional

reasons that make the me-scum and tajo-town explanation less plausible (and the me-town and him-scum explanation more plausible):

- His claim on day one was totally unprompted.

- He wrongly claimed at the time his power-role was readily confirmable when it is clearly

not at all

, even by today. Which means that this was a straight

lie

, even if he is town.

- He didn't initially claim no result, but claimed to have been role-blocked, then amended his claim when I drew attention to the implausibility of "knowing" one was role-blocked.

^^^ if it wasn't clear all the above are reasons why tajo is scummy. He is my second suspect. They are also reasons why DGB's behaviour makes no sense- despite the evidence if anything being against tajo's claim, she insists I must be obv-scum solely for having voted him today and asking for results. Her behaviour is entirely consistent with a scumbag who suggested the "roleblocked" ploy to her scumbuddy to begin with, and is now attempting to trap townies in her web.

I also believe (can't really support this but it is a reason for suspecting her for me) she is more aggressive/tunnelly as scum. She changes her mind a lot more as town.

Third is MafiaSSK. The reasons for lynching him are equally as good as they were yesterday. The fact he is on DGB's list doesn't make either himself or DGB look better to me. He may well be the obligatory scumpartner DGB puts on her list. Antihero is a neutral read for me also, btw.

[ortolan]

oh, also,

Vote: DGB

[ortolan]

Furthermore, Xyl-town would have his knickers in a twist over the lurkers, such as MafiaSSK. Xyl willfully ignores the fact that MafiaSSK is an UNCONFIRMED mason. But he doesn't. And he knows that scum masons are a dime a dozen. Wilfull ignorance of thge obvious = town.

ortolan would be an extremely difficult player to lynch; he's not on my scum list because he's an "easy target."

Why exactly am I on your scum list then? If you're town, then you agree with me about MafiaSSK. You also have failed to establish why the other two points you've brought against me: "busing" zwet, and voting tajo, are actually scummy.

I long stopped caring about my win condition and just want to prove them wrong, and hope the town loses.

The town losing and you fulfilling your win con are not mutually exclusive.

I also note a complete failure to engage with my case on you and the points on tajo, and instead a strong preference for appeals to emotion. I also don't believe throwing genuine hissy fits is consistent with DGB's meta (that stuff about "I want to spite town"), so again I'm inclined to think it's another scum tactic.

[ortolan]

new theory: DGB is scum, tajo is town, Xyl is scum (assuming DGB actually does flip scum).

[ortolan]

The benefit of WIFOMing your buddies (when you were obviously going to die anyway) by self-hammering and proceeding to flip scum is not to be underestimated.

[ortolan]

hello

[ortolan]

^^^ this guy is a much better lynch seriously. We all agree he needs to die at some point so

Vote: MafiaSSK

[ortolan]

um

We must be getting close to the lurker threshold

[ortolan]

we're gonna need to policy lynch Mastin soon unless he posts

everyone else has posted today

I agree with rofl that image's case against him is blatantly opportunistic

That being said I don't think the case against her is as strong as rofl is playing it up to be.

As I've said earlier, I long stopped caring about my win condition and just want to prove them wrong, and hope the town loses. I'm sure that sentence is worth 1.5 votes on average. But I just don't care. I'm fighting really hard against the urge to self-vote at this point, and that sentence is probably worth another 1 vote, firm.

However, this post is in and of itself a pretty compelling argument.

Vote: DGB

.

This looks like classic scum trying (badly) to look better out of a mislynch. It's got the classic ingredient of expressing hesitance about a town wagon before the fact with no good reason.

It's extra scummy this time because he actually votes her for her own words subsequently. How can a case "not be as strong as rofl is playing it up to be" yet still be worthy of your vote?

I had a look at back and 1457 and 1465 are also very scummy.

1465 is more casting aspersions on people post-wagon. 1457 is complete WIFOM over the scum's choice of night-kill.

Unvote
Vote: image

[ortolan]

Chainsaw defence is just attacking someone for attacking someone else right? If so that's a crap tell, especially when I was up-front about it.

I don't even care if roflcopter is scum this game, all the people he's gone after including yourself have given him ample reason to.

[ortolan]

actually amend that, neither of Xtoxm and Malyss looked scummy to me. Still, I see no reason that roflcopter is scum and your attack on him complies with the classic "I am scum" archetype

[ortolan]

hmm, BMQ opposed zwet wagon in 170, accuses DGB of setting a "simplistic trap" on zwet-scum in 176 without elaborating. 584 is far more townie. 598 continues to be townie. 608 not bad. 612 I like his gentle attempt to reason with the half-retarded mason pair.

I conclude his attitude to zwet's wagon was not scummy.

838 good attack on masons.

Troll makes good point in 957 that BMQ refuses to actively vote anyone.

1059 defends two innocents (Malyss, DGB).

1064 attacks two innocents (Xtoxm, Malyss). I don't think this post is all that scummy though.

1377 was decent again.

I'm inclined to think BMQ/Nuwen is probably town.

Elvis again makes a subtle attempt to employ a "misunderstanding" of mechanics to grant window to possible lurking buddies. This ambiguity is more understandable and less contrived.

What are you referring to here?

I thought Nuwen's strongest point again elvis_knits was the mountainous thing. I myself once readied to vote a lurker past the 48-hour mark (before rofl hammered Malyss). Perhaps this was technically an incorrect move, but I don't think in itself it was scummy.

That said I'm unsure of elvis_knits' response (this post, 1790, was why I started re-reading BMQ in the first place):

Also, Nuwen, your theory that lynching lurkers at the 48 hours mark is more likely to hit town is still not correct.

If everyone knows we intend to lynch lurkers at 48 hours, town would know to avoid that.

I dislike all of your strategy/math analysis. It is very easy to adapt stats to fit your needs, especially when you're not using numbers or any kind of provable quantity. You're relying on some imaginary "statistical intuition." As a math person, you should know that is a load of crapola.

You're ignoring most of the game, and most of the players to hit on one thing that

I said that actually should tell you that I am town. You're actually ignoring logic to make graphs and analogies to try to prove that I am scum. You are not making sense. It reminds me a lot of the other game, where you were scum pushing the idea that "lynching claimed power roles is statistically more likely to hit scum, so let's lynch all power roles."

Nice try.

unvote; vote Nuwen

The bold part is where it starts to get waffly and scummy. I think elvis might be relying on us making the assumption that because Nuwen misused stats to her own scummy ends in WIH2, she is doing the same here.

In conclusion, however, I am honestly wondering why (and kicking myself as a result) we haven't lynched MafiaSSK yet. I'm pretty sure he has already shown his PR is fake but insists on being...extremely scummy.

I'm not trying to avoid discussing the image wagon- I will answer for my actions in voting him. He asked me to re-read his case on rofl and I got side-tracked and haven't had time to do so yet.

I will

Unvote

for the time being for the speed with which his wagon has garnered votes, and consider him in isolation next.

[ortolan]

I also would like an answer to tajo's 1798

You're ignoring most of the game, and most of the players to hit on one thing that I said that actually should tell you that I am town.

What is this and why should it tell us you're town, also?

[ortolan]

i just re-read image. He does oppose the zwet wagon but I'm not sure it's for scummy reasons. He is also instrumental in communicating with MafiaSSK.

703 is pretty scummy. He is directing suspicion onto BMQ for something he himself did.

His preference for lynching Steph over MafiaSSK is noted.

Unfortunately, there has been a lot of noise going on today that I have a hard time making sense of, with rofl being aggro and people getting angry at him. Still not seeing tajo as town, but agreeing that there isn't as strong a case against him as rofl seems to think there is.

Unvote.

I am quite disturbed by the utter lack of meaningful posting coming from Malyss.

Vote: Malyss

This is another case of him equivocating- "not seeing tajo as town but case against him isn't as strong as rofl seems to think it is". Then jumps on the easy bandwagon vote. Anyone familiar with his meta, here? That's twice he's dropped this scum-tell this game.

I find it odd that DGB and tajo both have such an easy time reading each other and are assuring us that we can trust them about it.

959 attacks Troll, DGB, Malyss.

Argh and then 1077 looks townie again, then 1080 also very town, AND 1082. 1178 also looks townie.

...Then we get to the present.

elvis I definitely do not see why Nuwen is obv-scum, please elucidate.

I am constantly wondering why we have no yet lynched MafiaSSK.

Vote: MafiaSSK

[ortolan]

I'm liking elvis less and less tbh. Her insistence that zwet claiming to have said to her "Since when are you so acquainted with the deep mysteries of the scum game mechanic?" makes her obv-town doesn't hold water. Now it is still plausible at this stage that the zwet lynch was a deliberate busing attempt at the beginning of the game- this obviously implicates me equally with anyone else. If zwet was a scumbuddy, a pre-meditated busing day one doesn't seem such a bad strategy- he's highly unlikely to survive to end-game as scum anyhow. And I agree entirely that apparent confusion about scum mechanics, is, generally

in no way a town-tell.

It's far too easily, and frequently, faked by scum.

Other things which

may

suggest a busing attempt including rofl: Post 30 is remarkably prescient (maybe too much so to be scum) and his insistence that "Nuwen is trying to keep people unconfirmed" when I see no reason to think of anyone as confirmed at this point.

why is the image wagon dissipating

Because Image is a bad lynch and has been remarkably lucid over the past few pages.

I concur entirely with this. image is starting to look like a mislynch.

Tajo (unlikely scum tracker due to insufficient amount of town power roles, mod meta on Yos' love of town-aligned tracker mechanics, early/desperate claim fits with Tajo's OMGI'MTOWN panic meta (which DGB was lynched for suggesting, let's see who is the first to attack me for saying the same) .

I actually disagree with this- if Yos loves town-aligned tracker mechanics and tajo knows early panicking fits with his meta then this is all the more motivation for him to fake-claim tracker.

However

I am actually reconsidering him as town currently. 1817 actually comes across as

very

townie to me. roflcopter and I attacked him very hard previously but he expresses less suspicion of us than several other players, which I consider a town-tell in tajo's case. Also the fact he attacks image having himself been attacked by roflcopter, but acknowledges he's become more townie today. He also has reasonably ambivalent impressions consistent with mine.

I don't like the near-unanimous support of MafiaSSK's lynch (although I still think he's extremely scummy independently). As I said earlier, we have a high density of scum still alive (3-5 is my estimate). Any strong agreement on a lynch like MafiaSSK either seems like a bus or a mislynch.

I disagree with many, many, many things in this paragraph.

While you say MafiaSSK has "near unanimous support for a lynch", he's been acting blatantly scummy since day one and

still

has not been lynched yet. You also use fallacious reasoning in saying that while

you

think he's extremely scummy independently of anyone else, you find other people finding him scummy unconvincing. It is also a very bizarre thing to say "any strong agreement on a lynch like MafiaSSK either seems like a bus or a mislynch"- this is actually trivially true. We know there's at least 3 scum (probably more) left in the setup, so if there is consensus on

anyone

it is clearly going to fall into the category of either being a mislynch, or being a bus. The other thing is that if in fact some people

are

busing MafiaSSK, then lynching him is still, obviously optimal play. It's just what you do- kill scum. If his scumbuddies are voting him it's irrelevant. Finally I think you underestimate the value to scum in supporting the lynch of a scummy player who happens to be their buddy, and conversely the risk to scum of opposing the lynch of a scummy player who happens to be their buddy.

I do find real difficulty reading MafiaSSK- he has certainly given us no reason to think he's town though, has clearly faked a PR, and demonstrated similar lurking behaviour in the only other game I've played with him where he was scum. His lynch is inevitable, and delaying the lynch to be closer to LYOL is not helping.

As for Xyl, I have no way of reading him. I've never played with him before and on the whole I haven't been that impressed with his attempts to scumhunt this game. Something about how detached and disconnected from the game his comments feel, but this could well be within his meta. Could someone familiar with his meta give me a briefing?

I need to re-read Empking but from the fact I can't recall his comments this game he seems to be lurking quite a bit and may very well be scum.

[ortolan]

I will probably vote elvis tomorrow btw (with reasons). Just a heads up in case she gets speedlynched, flips scum and I look less-than-optimal for not having voted her.

[ortolan]

I will probably vote elvis tomorrow btw (with reasons). Just a heads up in case she gets speedlynched, flips scum and I look less-than-optimal for not having voted her.

It's going to take you a whole day to make up some reasons? You're slow.

I think ortolan is being stupid not scummy there

Why stupid? It was night my time (also a reply to elvis suggesting it would take me a whole day to make up reasons).

Anyway, why elvis is scummy:

1) e.g. from

You're ignoring most of the game, and most of the players to hit on one thing that I said that actually should tell you that I am town. You're actually ignoring logic to make graphs and analogies to try to prove that I am scum. You are not making sense. It reminds me a lot of the other game, where you were scum pushing the idea that "lynching claimed power roles is statistically more likely to hit scum, so let's lynch all power roles."

Also, I wasn't in WIH2, and I don't know what you guys are talking about all the times you reference it. But if Nuwen used stats in a scummy way in that game too, that makes two confirmed cases where she presents bastardmath as scum. This game would be the third. That seems to be her scum MO.

She has repeatedly used the sole fact of Nuwen's deference to maths as a point against her because she has deferred to maths in games previously where she has been scum. I don't think Nuwen's argument that people who jumped on a lurker's bandwagon before they hit 72 hours are very much more likely to be scum, but her point, despite being a small one, is sound from a purely logical standpoint. It does not make her scummy.

Additionally, the tone of 1790 reads as disingenuous and full of appeal to emotion.

Read over the first two pages of the game. See where I misunderstand the rules in a way that scum would obviously be familiar with. See where Zwet attacks me (before there were votes on him) and tries to throw suspicion on me.

If you don't think I'm town, that's fine. But you would have to assume that I cooked up a fake misunderstanding and faked a fight with zwet scum (which would be an awful choice of player for me to do that with), to think I'm scum.

I don't really care if you don't think I'm town based on these events, but it's horribly convoluted to think I'm scum based on these events.

I don't like this. If a zwet busing was premeditated this instantly becomes invalid.

I will revote image if we all agree Nuwen is scum and will die next.

Lining up lynches, lacking thoughtfulness.

Tajo, you don't need to be a maths person so see that she's not making sense.

I don't know if she's more likely scum than image. But she's scum, and she needed my vote.

I think it's really scummy to try to "unconfirm" people. When you're scum, it sucks to have people confirmed town, so you search for ways to argue that they're unconfirmed. That's what she's doing, and using the crappiest logic to do so.

And while you are technically right that nobody is confirmed town, you can often tell from certain events that a person is more likely to be town. Sometimes, VERY likely to be town. A town player looks for these sorts of things so that they can narrow down lynch possibilities. A scum player hates this because the pool of possibile lynchees gets smaller and the chances that they get lynched increases. So they look for ways to argue that players accepted as VERY LIKELY TOWN, could possibly, maybe, be scum. Like snowballs chance in hell chance of being scum.

Your continued insistence your behaviour towards zwet places you above scrutiny, is actually one of the scummiest things about you.

I also don't like elvis in 1842 suggesting that it was somehow entirely DGB and Xtoxm's fault they were mislynched. It's particularly wierd when in 1844 she seems to give all these reasons *why* DGB

was

acting scummy, seemingly in order to validate why she found her validly suspicious (and thereby making whether or not DGB suicided irrelevant).

On a similar note, I dislike Xyl's claim he will never play with DGB again due to her "self-hammer", made while the game is still ongoing. The implication that he is outraged-town is mere WIFOM.

I especially don't like his:

I count xtoxm and dgb as jester lynches

Which seems a particularly scummy way to nullify the responsibility of anyone else for involvement in these wagons. According to tajo's analysis he was second, third and first on all these wagons respectively, which means his involvement and support of the wagons is entirely independent of any self-voting moves by those players. Whether or not these players were "jesters" (a stupid thing to say anyway) is irrelevant to

his

involvement in their wagons.

1863 continues the scummy WIFOM.

I think that someone asking to be lynched is always a sufficient reason to do so.

No, this is

not

why you voted them, scumbag.

@ Mastin, what the hell does "stylistically consistent" mean? Why is it a valid town/scum tell?

And how are you judging "quality of post content"???

I dislike your list because it doesn't give us information about how you came to the conclusions you did. It is practically useless for us.

I am obliged to keep my vote on MafiaSSK as long as he continues to blatantly not scumhunt and be totally useless. He needs to be lynched now, get on the wagon please scum.

[ortolan]

Xyl Re: 1881: Do you think DGB's self-vote made a difference to whether or not she was ultimately lynched?

Do you believe you are as responsible as you would normally be for lynching her considering you seemed to be voting her long before any self-voting issues arose?

[ortolan]

ortolan: I'm not going to discuss DGB and self-voting. If I try, I'm going to get angry again, and then I'll either do something stupid or make myself replace out of the game. Drop the subject.

entirely independently of her self-voting

, you were absolutely sure at the time you voted for her she was obv-scum, yes?

[ortolan]

if tajo is telling the truth then it's because the mafia can perpetually roleblock him. As for the masons, they're unconfirmed and MafiaSSK has almost been lynched (and the masonhood hasn't served any purpose so far), they would be highly sub-optimal targets for night-kills.

MafiaSSK: in addition to answering all the other questions asked of you, could you tell me why you faked the PR? Also if you don't feel capable of building a "case" on anyone could you at least describe in your own words

why

you feel they are more likely to be scum than town please.

[ortolan]

hai guyz

[ortolan]

did*

[ortolan]

hello, will read now/soon

[ortolan]

Um, yer. I had quite a lot to read so hopefully I'll remember most of my points.

elvis is confirmed town, I can't see rofl not being town either. Xyl's more than likely town also. I actually think tajo is town also.

Read post 1744 by Mastin (where he wants us to look at the reasons troll was night-killed, one of which is a clear attempt to direct suspicion onto tajo in 196), for example. Plus tajo is not OMGUSing his attackers which suggests to me a desire to genuinely scumhunt. This also makes me think MafiaSSK is probably town- because Zorblag had a go at him in 186 which Mastin linked to. I also am suspicious of Nuwen and one of Nuwen's targets was MafiaSSK.

image:

Suggestion: Mastin needs to die today. Yes. But let's lynch him second. Then we see more interaction from him, and learn more when he flips one way or the other.

Hypothesis: if say there are four or five scum left alive, if scum got a townie lynched in the first half of the day, they might have simply tried to make a lurk for it in the next part of the day- if say all 3/4 of them apart from Mastin got over the 72 hour mark they would get up to five or so nightkills that night, which would potentially enable them to endgame.

2133 continues to be a huge stretch on rofl.

I have zero read on Empking from memory and I believe from experience he's perfectly capable of simply flying under the radar to endgame as scum. I would like a suspicions list, Empking.

Wow I really dislike how quick Image got those votes so I'm thinking he's town. I really dislike how Rolf seems to think he controls the town.

Scumlist:
image
Nuwen
Empking

Those are my choices, locked in.

Vote: image

I think he is scummier than Nuwen but I could be convinced otherwise, my suspicion of Nuwen is to a large extent based on the links between the two.

[ortolan]

I think he is scummier than Nuwen but I could be convinced otherwise, my suspicion of Nuwen is to a large extent based on the links between the two.

[ortolan]

deadline is ages away anyhow, putting someone on L-1 isn't prudent

I want a suspicions list from Empking and I want more opportunity to comment on the apparent near-consensus we're getting to

[ortolan]

While there is a double day mechanic I think that's partly to offset what I said about scum all mass-lurking at once with the town only having the chance to lynch one of them. I think five is a feasible number of scum.

And I also meant to comment on Mastin saying "we are one lynch away from LYOL" which is curious considering he was trying to fake-claim doctor at the same time, yet seeming to know how many scum are alive.

I'm not sure if we should take his musings about our proximity to LYOL as WIFOM or not.

[ortolan]

I can only really see Kinetic or Empking being the final mason at this point

Nuwen- claim please.

[ortolan]

Fine. Being reckless is fun.

Vote: Nuwen

[ortolan]

That's probably correct, and suggests non-random role distribution (seriously, a Stephoscope, MafiaSSK and Empking mason group in a Lynch-All-Lurkers game???)

[ortolan]

I just remember DGB used her ability on him in Prisoner's Dilemma because he was lurking (not sure if that's the game you're referring to Steph) which ended up killing him as scum.

[ortolan]

That doesn't sound convincing and how do you know we are in LYOL????

[ortolan]

It's true though, you claiming vanilla would not have prevented the lynch

[ortolan]

The justification was made before the fact anyhow

[ortolan]

We don't know whether was WIFOM or not and we know for a fact it isn't true because he was scum. Because he was scum if we weren't in LYOL before lynching him then we're not in LYOL after.

[ortolan]

...which will be roleblocked, obviously

[ortolan]

You didn't need to confirm that.

At present before I've re-read I'm still happy to go with my original reads- image was pretty damn scummy. He may now make some further cases so we can have further opportunity to judge him.

There's no way I'll support an elvis_knits lynch and as far as I'm aware Xyl hasn't done anything scummy enough to support lynching him either. I'm tempted almost to think that Yos would have WIFOM'ed us with the masons and they might all in fact be pro-town, but I'm not sure. Empking is neutral- no indications of his alignment and he hasn't been as inquisitive as he usually is.

Actually what do people think of a massclaim? I somehow doubt we have any power-roles we'd want to keep secret at this point in the game and if we get no power-role claims apart from tajo it makes his tracker claim very suspect, because it implies that a mafia roleblocker was put in the setup whose ability can only work on

one

player, who happened to claim his ability unprompted on day one. I'm aware this is the sort of thing I might say as scum also, to frame tajo and/or out power roles, but it seems like it certainly should be strongly considered.

[ortolan]

Oh and if anyone lurks past 72 hours they're still dying automatically- remember we've caught our two scum so far because 1) of implied intention to lurk and 2) actually lurking. We are definitely sticking to zero-tolerance. Masons- I would like if you'd paraphrase your chat discussion so far please (or check if you're actually allowed to just post it, but don't do so without mod clarification). I would like to know how many posts you've made and who has said what.

[ortolan]

so what's the chain of discussion been like?

[ortolan]

Who do the masons think is scummiest now?

[ortolan]

despite initially believing them to be?

[ortolan]

^^ why?

[ortolan]

what do you think of image Stephy, MafiaSSK and Kinetic

[ortolan]

actually I would like to give tajo the opportunity to revise his claim, without any prejudice

tajo if you want to claim vanilla now we won't hold it against you

[ortolan]

BTW: There's a nasty potential for a scum forced win if we're in lylo after the first lynch of the day. If they get two people past 72h, we can only lynch one of them, and then the other makes a bonus kill for the game. If we have to lynch for inactivity we need to be very careful to do it before a second person hits 72h.

Ya that's what I was saying earlier.

Wait, how have both Xyl and Elvis lived close to LYLO?

Explain.

[ortolan]

You can always start now Kinetic. I really want some cases from image.

[ortolan]

What did you ask them?

[ortolan]

Now what would be the point of the topic now if we just re posted everything here now?

What is the point of the topic if you don't post everything here?

I would actually very much like to see the contents of the quicktopic if allowed by the game rules, it would help us to be able to analyse the likelihood of one or possibly even all of you being scum.

[ortolan]

ok how about we give you a week to use your quicktopic as it was intended then you paste logs/paraphrase everything that went on

[ortolan]

Why not?

[ortolan]

Um why would you not be prepared to post the quicktopic if it's not against the rules?

[ortolan]

If there is no game rule against quoting quicktopics and your faction can gain from doing so then if you don't you are breaking the site-wide rule of "play to win".

[ortolan]

Why are you so sure Xyl? (I'm not doubting their mason claim but whether they are all in fact town).

[ortolan]

I'm taking over the popcorning

I'm vanilla

Empking, please claim

[ortolan]

Empking why did you protect who you did on each night?

Do you believe tajo's claim?

[ortolan]

Well, then you ahve a doctor and 3 masons, are you going to listen me now? Even after Emp claimed you came out with "oh, look, this is so easy, Emp and Tajo are scum, lynchplox".

The thing is I really wasn't expecting someone to actually claim another power role at that point. The fact it comes from one of the most unconfirmed players is also scummy. tajo may well have asked Empking to claim a power-role to help mask his own fake-claim (which would be a bad move imo cause ironically it makes me more skeptical of each of their claims).

His claim also has bizarre similarities in minimalist phrasing to my fake cop claim in Past Ages Mafia, which he was in (he was going to suicide bomb me if I didn't claim):

Cop.

BSG was town

hohum is town

raider is town

compare to his:

Doctor - Rofl, Rofl, Elvis

Xyl, Claim.

The fact he wants neither image nor tajo lynched also screams scummy to me.

Empking 'n' tajo were late on the zwet wagon (6 and 7) and only after he became obv-scum by announcing his intentions to lurk. Assuming daytalking between the scum this bus becomes criminally easy.

1110 WIFOMs me.

They were 7 and 8 on the Malyss wagon, again next to each other.

Empking votes for Xtoxm in 1332 without explanation, tajo stays off the wagon.

Empking was fourth on DGB's wagon, again voting with no reasons given in 1452.

Empking conveniently isn't around to comment on the Mastin wagon or counter-claim/suspect his doc claim. I wasn't either (although I earlier voted antihero) but this is still a point to be considered.

2336 is his vote on Nuwen, again, no reasons whatsoever.

I'd be more comfortable lynching a claimed vanilla.

Why is this, so close to LYOL?

- Oh bam, I just realised the piece de resistance is why the hell didn't Empking protect tajo the claimed power role? I think we can lynch the scum now.

Empking first, then we can go from there.

Oh and on my re-read Xyl looks very town, as is elvis_knits- so it's pretty much these three (Empking, image, tajo) anyway. Even if one of the masons is scum at least two of them actually have to be scum.

So, Empking first, then tajo/image.

Vote: Empking

tajo: what do you think of Empking?

[ortolan]

Why did you protect roflcopter the first two nights then change to elvis?

[ortolan]

The switch of opinion from "Oh look tajo is the only claimed active power role" to "Oh look Emp claimed doc so he and tajo are scumbuddies" worries me; if tajo is suspicious for being the only claimed active power role, you can't say it makes him look more scummy when another power role claims. That's just silly.

That is not the argument. The argument is that Empking's claim is itself scummy

Mu. I do not, at present, think that either is scum.

I very much dislike this trio insisting they all find one another town, never giving reasons.

@ort: Why did you decide it was a good idea to hammer pre-claim, again once Nuwen had promised content and a claim? What changed from before, when you posted:

[/url]

Vote: image

I think he is scummier than Nuwen but I could be convinced otherwise, my suspicion of Nuwen is to a large extent based on the links between the two.

Why does it seem like a good idea to

hammer

someone

pre-claim

based off of ties to someone

who has not flipped

?

It wasn't really a good idea, especially as she flipped town. However I was under pressure e.g. from Xyl who seemed to be suggesting I shouldn't be detracting from a healthy bandwagon by starting a new one. There was also the obvious point made that whatever Nuwen claimed she wasn't going to be believed- certainly if she'd claimed vanilla townie, which she was and which she would have; that wouldn't have stopped her lynch.

image: in 2569, I see a whole bunch of questions, mainly directed at Xyl, but not really a whiff of your suspicions. This is apart from you inexplicably (along with both tajo and Empking) suggesting the others in your posse are town without providing reasons. You should have strong suspects at this point in the game- odds are at least 1/3 of the currently living players are scum- I know I certainly have strong suspects. Who are yours? I will need at the very least 2 names with strong cases against them, and up to 4 names would be desirable. My thoughts are that there were probably five scum leaving us three left.

By myself I would have preferred image.

Really? That's not the impression I got- I preferred an image lynch at the time and you seemed to want me to vote Nuwen.

[ortolan]

oh, plus, image again directing us to a specific post of DGB's (701) where she gives us a scum-list is very scummy (oh look she was town, let's lynch down her scum-list). I personally think the only person on that list with a good probability of being scum is Empking (nice going DGB )

Remember Mastin tried to do exactly the same by linking to Troll's earlier post.

[ortolan]

I want to hear from Empking, image and tajo how sure they are of each other's towniness on a scale of 0-100% and why.

How sure are we of Steph's towniness btw? I have no intention of casting aspersions on it but everyone seemed to be implying he was obv-town throughout the game. Are we still prepared to go with this? Personally I'm almost 100% sure MafiaSSK is town- that suspicions list (which I can't find in my brief search) seemed legitimate to me. I've still no idea about Kinetic beyond being a mason.

But basically my thought process is elvis, Xyl (and myself) are town.

If there were five (or even six, which would place us in LYOL right now- I'm hopeful it wasn't) scum, then that only leaves the three masons and image, tajo and Empking.

Neither Empking nor tajo (particularly Empking) have given us any strong indications of their towniness throughout the game and have both pursued scummy roleclaims (not protecting a claimed tracker is objectively very scummy; so is tajo conveniently claiming day one while not under pressure and then getting roleblocked, not night-killed every day- two of the dead mafia are not the roleblocker either). Again, back to our earlier discussion where DGB (quite nonsensically) suggested myself (and rofl) were trying to frame tajo- that still is perfectly plausible; I can't deny that theory. But tajo needs to explain why he would roleclaim an important power role under no pressure, and then explain the somewhat improbable occurrences of being role-blocked rather than night-killed every night, where two of the flipped mafia were neither roleblockers nor power-roles at all. He also needs to explain whether it's plausible a roleblocker would be in the setup with only two (one? if Empking is lying scum and tajo is town; which doesn't make sense because Empking would want to claim vanilla in order to get tajo suspected more/lynched). This is indeed why I wanted tajo lynched earlier- because he is simply a liability. If he is telling the truth the roleblocker will continue to roleblock him until the roleblocker himself gets lynched; at which point the mafia can just night-kill tajo- essentially his role is useless and unconfirmable, as I said earlier, and despite what he claimed when he claimed day one.

So according to my earlier deductions, it is very unlikely Empking can be scum while tajo is town (because he had no motivation to fakeclaim doctor unless he is scum with tajo)- they are either both scum, tajo is scum and Emp town or both are town. On this basis I'd be more likely to want to lynch tajo over Empking, but I'm just not sure how much I can trust Empking to take the optimal play even if he is scum. Thoughts?

[ortolan]

and why.

I didn't say that- I said assuming optimal play by you you can't be scum while he is town. That is a bit of a step.

[ortolan]

and if the above wasn't clear you didn't provide the asked for reasons

[ortolan]

Wait, who would mention you shouldn't claim a PR? tajo?

[ortolan]

I don't quite follow; do you mean tajo and image??

[ortolan]

Empking who do you think the scummy scummies are?

[ortolan]

Ort: I'm thinking Mafia & You and someone else.

Why is that?

[ortolan]

How have I been inconsistent?

[ortolan]

Empking if me and MafiaSSK are scum together who's our 3rd (and even fourth) member?

[ortolan]

imo daytalking masons assumed genuine indicates daytalking between scum- therefore Empking may have discussed/be currently discussing optimal play and the optimal answer to Xyl's question with his scumbuddies.

Empking nominates myself and MafiaSSK as probable scum. I know I am not scum, and strongly suspect SSK isn't. The only thing we seem to agree on is image.

Empking is a claimed doctor. The only targetting PR besides me. My whole towniness depends of him. If you think he is scum, then I am also scum. Who thinks me and Emp are scum together? It just doesnt make sense.

Why doesn't it make sense?

[ortolan]

Hmm I think as per my earlier logic a tajo or image lynch is optimal

[ortolan]

Unvote

[ortolan]

fyi image hasn't posted in over 2 days

[ortolan]

Amazing how he pops in within

30

5 minutes of someone mentioning his timer.

Vote: image

[ortolan]

oh I read Xyl's post stamp instead of mine

Still, point stands

[ortolan]

if Xyl is scum, in light of the possible pairings, I have to say I am very, very, very impressed with his scum play. I don't think he is scum

[ortolan]

Xyl and Ortolan have forged an unlikely mind meld.

not really, he is more skeptical of me than I am of him.

I currently think that image and kinetic are the scummiest.

you are so town s2

[ortolan]

I'm not getting the "I'm a mislynch" vibe from image

You should be detracting from a healthy bandwagon if, in your opinion, (as you had seemed to claim) it is not a good lynch for the day.

True, I'm not perfect. Mislynching Nuwen has thankfully allowed me to narrow down my reads to the likely correct scumteam though

The reason my post contained a lot of questions and not a lot of case was because I was suspicious of Xyl but unsure of the read. A lot of his reasoning seems to deal more with meta and gut, and he waffles much. This enforces my suspicions. I particularly disliked the way he switched from saying that lynching nuwen was a bad idea to driving for her lynch, despite admitting he himself did not see this as the ideal wagon. His argument was that he didn't want to detract from the elvis/rofl wagon since he thought both of them were town, but they had both stated that they thought I was scum has well.

I don't see how you can expect to make anything of this without studying his meta.

We should not discount peoples reasoning merely because they got killed, especially in the case of DGB, as her death was not entirely, and perhaps not at all, scum controlled. She was not killed to introduce WIFOM about her scum list, but Xyl saying we should flat out ignore it regardless of her alignment strikes me as scummy.

We should ignore it because it's probably all wrong.

The interaction between you seems off, and I believe you are each individually pretty scummy. These things together have made me confident enough that you are both scum that yes, I am willing to lynch you in either order.

Scum. Isn't your only point against me that I supposedly "flip-flopped" on Xyl (which wouldn't be much of a point against me really cause I'd never played with Xyl before this game and he has something of an unconventional playing style seemingly- I did comment on this earlier in the game). As elvis pointed out I was on the zwet wagon, and did originally vote antihero (who got quicklynched for lurking when I wasn't here) rather than ?Malyss? Apparently you're willing to ignore these facts in favour of me expressing a gut read if nothing else on Xyl when someone else was about to be lynched; and supporting the Nuwen wagon even though it was my second favourite wagon (after yourself).

My current suspicions are Xyl + Ort + 1 mason (+ 1 non-mason if there are 4 scum)

Convenient that you express no doubt of the unconfirmed power-roles in a setup with nothing but mountainous flips thus far.

[ortolan]

Alright, here is my view on the game so far, which may change again:

Elvis/Ort are highest on my non-scum list.

Xyl is pretty high on my town list as well.

This, along with the hammer, is pleasing. We've got two groups both of whom largely have the same suspects amongst themselves, and one group is smaller.

[ortolan]

that's horrid

going to bed now

[ortolan]

yer I'd rather lynch tajo too

all three of the masons being scum doesn't make sense because why would they out their third member in order to put all their eggs in one basket?

thus even if a mason is scum, imo tajo/Empking are also plus there's my earlier logic for why tajo is preferential to lynch to Empking

[ortolan]

I was literally going to say the same thing.

It's bastard modding because that's

never

happened before and would pretty much result in a meta of masons being 100% useless. If one flips scum then the town would (right, imo) assume that the others are town, which is almost an auto-win for the scum.

[ortolan]

rightly*

[ortolan]

vote: populartajo

[ortolan]

see logic as before- if tajo is town and Empking is scum it made far more sense for Empking to just claim vanilla in order that we lynch tajo- he would have had instructions from his scumbuddies to this effect also, assuming they can daytalk as the masons claim to be able to. Xyl (as elvis says, maybe unprovable, but I'm willing to assume it at present), elvis and me (from my perspective) are town, the whole mason group being scum is implausible (why claim a third member?)

Kinetic's last post is pretty scummy actually- suspecting both his fellow masons is pretty damn weird:

4: Of the masons, I still have suspicious of both SSK and Steph. Steph is higher than SSK on my scum list. I need to see if SSK leans toward manipulative as scum, but his straight lurker tendencies seem to be a vote against that. I need to read up on him as scum and see if any of the QTs were posted where he participated. Same for Steph.

Even if tajo flips scum (which obviously I'm hoping otherwise we may well lose) this doesn't preclude Kinetic being scum.

3: Of the remaining vanilla, my gut is screaming at me that elvis is acting peculiar. However the ONLY way I can justify elvis being scum is if she is the last remaining scum or if there is only one scum buddy left, a scum team of 2 remaining. As such I can't vote for elvis unless and until there are fewer players left and still no scum have been found. Ort and Xyl seem to damn town for me to justify voting for either of them.

What is the read on elvis based on? Plus, you simply seem here to be leaving yourself open to vote her later, is this correct?

5: Of Pop/Empking, I HATE the doc claim from Emp. If he had claimed vanilla I think I would have voted him over image. But I also feel there was so much suspicion from so many sources that I felt were strong that something should have been there. If I had to choose right now, I'd vote Pop.

Wait, so if Empking hadn't claimed doc, you would have voted him? Shouldn't you have voted tajo if Empking didn't claim doc?

[ortolan]

fair point

who should we lynch, Empking?

[ortolan]

which player is mafia?

[ortolan]

and?

[ortolan]

pretty sure Kinetic is busing tajo and Empking

This read is based on me going over the reasons for certain actions elvis has made, as well as her pushing that masons are scummy, not for any other reason but trying to use their role as it was intended.

I don't think anyone would say you've used your role as intended

I understand some of her logic, but it falls flat on its face if I look at it from the PoV of a final scum trying to avoid being blindsided.

Well yes, when you look at her as scum you tend to read her as scum

Her constant defense of Steph also takes a new light in this possibility because it is her trying to sue discord among the masons, with Steph being the odd one out and the one most likely to give her her wish of seeing the QT.

Don't get this point.

Also, it explains how she was so quick to notice that Mastin hit the lurker timer. She didn't seem to be watching timers, but it could have been Yos posted that Mastin gained two lurker points or something in the QT and she immediately decided that Mastin was going to be lynched once someone figured it out (which they would most likely), so instead she preempted them and gained townie points.

"She voted Mastin, it might have been because she saw he'd gained lurker points in their qt". Pretty darn weak.

The rofl kill makes some more sense in this possibility as well. Besides getting rid of an influential townie it also helped cement elvis as town even further.

I'm pretty sure rofl would never have lynched her in a million years, which makes this point invalid. Killing rofl doesn't conceivably benefit her.

If scum, none of the masons can be her scum partner. Why: Because of pop's claim. As a tracker she's also claimed a roleblocker is out there. THUS, elvis's scum partner in this situation must be one of (Emp, Pop, Xyl, Ort). Those possibilities seem very unlikely, with the most likely being Pop, second most likely being Emp in my book.

I don't even understand this, but why are you assuming there are only two scum left?

Second, pop coming up as tracker severely breaks this case as well, since this would require elvis-scum to be teamed with one of (Emp, Xyl, Ort). I can't imagine Elvis both being able to RB and Kill in this scenario as solo-scum.

WHAT!?!?

These are reasons why elvis is by far not a good lynch for today in either way, and one I won't pursue at all today, however if certain things fall into place I am not eliminating the possibility of voting her in the future.

What, you mean if we lynch tajo-scum, and Empking-scum, both of whom you've nominated as likeliest buddies to elvis, you can then push for her lynch?

Not necessarily. True, it would have placed pop as the only power role, and certainly I may have voted her and assisted with her lynch in that possibility, but I haven't liked Empking's play since B5 (I was masons with him in that game). If he would have participated we could have won that game as a town a LOT easier, but instead he lurked hardcore, in both the thread and from PMs and every time I tried to coordinate with him he would merely ignore me. It was frustrating.

Wait, so you would prefer to lynch Empking because you think he is a bad player???

This is also why I don't believe any of the bullshit that "O, Empking wouldn't have claimed doc as town his scum buddies would have told him not to". No, Empking in my experience doesn't listen to anyone. If his scum buddies told him not to then they would be saying that NOW in thread because he failed to listen and now they're trying to salvage the situation and say 'No one in their right mind would allow that'.

Yes, I think it's bullshit also, because tajo is not town with Empking scum. They're both scum; with you.

Anyway, I would have still felt that with 8 players left, and 5 vanilla at least 1-2 scum were in the vanilla pool, with 1-2 scum in the power role pool.

I reckon 2/2 scum in the power role pool, 1/3 in the mason pool and 0/3 in the vanilla pool.

My main thing against Kinetic is that his attack on elvis really, really, makes no sense.

[ortolan]

ATTN: Kinetic is WIFOMing in 2742- by referring to a past game where he was mason with Empking he is relying on us committing the gambler's fallacy and discounting the possibility of him being scum with Empking this game.

I did exactly the same thing in a past game with Empking ironically (named a previous game where we both happened to be scumbuddies).

[ortolan]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present you the scum.
Xyl (prob ortolan) and a mason. (still deciding between Kin and SSK)

Now

that's

a compelling argument. I do like the bus though. Who were your targets over the game again?

[ortolan]

Xyl: please clarify, that means you think I am 3rd most likely to be scum, correct?

What are you basing perceptions of my play being more restrained than I usually am on?

[ortolan]

Xyl: please clarify, that means you think I am 3rd most likely to be scum, correct?

[ortolan]

the suggestion I am scum with tajo is fairly...ridiculous from my perspective

[ortolan]

or Empking

have you actually been reading the game?

[ortolan]

no but I literally don't see how you can see me as buddy to either of them

as far as I'm aware I attacked tajo heavily on day one after/before he claimed tracker, and was first to vote him on day two. He then claimed to be roleblocked, and suggested I set him up. I have never wavered in finding him suspicious the whole time, and was more than happy to join his wagon.

And as far as I'm aware I started the whole scrutinisation of Empking? I do not see where your reads are coming from. Objectively, your positing of me being in a scumteam with tajo/Empking seems rather absurd.

What reasons do you have which override these?

[ortolan]

...You have this as your most plausible scumteam.

You are temping me to vote you now

[ortolan]

Looks like you're leaving yourself open to try to get me lynched in LYOL.

I also dislike your suggestion MafiaSSK is a scummier mason than Kinetic. He is not.

[ortolan]

I thought we'd moved past that

[ortolan]

What do you think he hoped to achieve as scum by doing that, especially when he's a mason...

[ortolan]

overwhelmingly likely to be scum

What, 66.6% of the time with a sample size of three? Don't make me laugh. If MafiaSSK is town then next game you find a faked PR your odds are going to be 50%, aren't they.

If it's a 2 player scumteam it's Tajo+Empking or MafiaSSK+ortolan, with my money on the first. Outside chance of Tajo+ortolan.

If it's a 3 player scumteam it's Tajo+Empking+ortolan.

Actually I misread this the first time, your first scenario isn't really scummy- I have been defending MafiaSSK so it is plausible I am scum with him, or else tajo and Empking are scum with one another.

Your second scenario is nonsensical though, you go from claiming I am mutually exclusive scum with tajo and Empking to saying if there is a 3-man scumteam I am scum with them. This means if tajo and Empking do flip scum, and the game isn't over, you'll try to get me lynched next (despite me attacking those two the hardest of anyone all game). This makes me think you, rather than Kinetic, may be scum with them, but I need to re-read.

[ortolan]

4 scum out of 18 in a double day game?

That would be possibly balanced as a nightless game. With scumkills? No. populartajo+Empking+(any mason) is out.

Again, double day.

[ortolan]

Hmm. If Xyl is scum and Empking and tajo are not, that must mean Xyl is scum with only one mason (elvis and I are not scum), which means there are only two scum left, which means even if we lynch wrong we don't lose.

Either Empking and tajo are scum and Xyl isn't, or Xyl is being bused by Empking and tajo and vice versa, or Xyl is scum with a mason- possibly Kinetic. tajo/Empking's lynch is still optimal, and tajo is the preferred candidate of those two for the earlier reasons I described.

elvis I urge you to reconsider your vote (although I don't think there's much danger of quickhammering currently). Or tell me why you disagree with this argument.

[ortolan]

also mountainous slips thus far. Giving tajo a win as scum would be highly, highly unsatisfying (yer whatever, this might be construed as scummy etc.)

[ortolan]

possible scum:

Empking/tajo
Empking/tajo/Xyl
Empking/tajo/Kinetic
Xyl/Kinetic

[ortolan]

I see Xyl/Kinetic as most likely right now.

if it's 2 man that's alright, but we need to insure ourselves against 3 scum remaining in my honest opinion. tajo is a better lynch than Xyl

[ortolan]

based on Australian Eastern Standards Time:

6:23pm 28/5

4. Xylthixlm 4:06pm
8. MafiaSSK 12:47pm
9. Empking 6:36pm yesterday (1 day since post almost)
12. elvis_knits 6:01 am
13. q21Kinetic 3:40pm
14. Stephoscope 10:38am
15. populartajo 2:49am
17. ortolan Now

in light of this, I would be happy no-lynching I think. If there were four scum we'd already be end-gamed, and as Kinetic points out, we're in a double-day game. This slightly increase his odds of being town.

[ortolan]

ooh tajo lynch, that sounds good

we now seem to get the benefit of a double lynch, I question the scum's choice of no night-kill

if tajo doesn't flip scum then...nah wait scratch that

[ortolan]

Vote: populartajo

[ortolan]

Unvote

Actually maybe the no-kill is because Empking protected someone? (:P)

I'll wait and see

[ortolan]

yer, to be honest I find that quite likely, it would just mean that Empking has ripped off yet another aspect of my play in Past Ages Mafia

[ortolan]

so that means elvis is town, correct?

[ortolan]

but the fact there was no kill means you protected correctly...

[ortolan]

Good point.

Vote: populartajo

[ortolan]

I don't see Kinetic as

confirmed

town.

Can we lynch tajo already?

[ortolan]

Good point, where's Mr. Mason?

[ortolan]

and votes tajo, even better

[ortolan]

It's not like Empking to be so confident in someone else simply because they are also a claimed power-role.

[ortolan]

Do you think tajo is town Empking?

[ortolan]

No, I am unsure of your position on him, so I'm seeking clarification. Perhaps I was wrong.

[ortolan]

yes Empking I think pretended to protect you from harm by failing to submit a night-kill

tajo hasn't even bothered to lie about who he targeted last night

[ortolan]

I thought you said you believed his claim some time yesterday, but it might have been him talking about you

Regardless, do you think he is town now?

[ortolan]

What makes you think I'm confident in him?

Why did you ask that if you were confident in him?

[ortolan]

Why would you need to know if you

are

confident in him, how is it of any relevance?

[ortolan]

elvis/Kinetic/Steph can you please vote tajo

[ortolan]

People supporting my lynch think its me and Empking, specially Xyl and ortolan. Besides that being a retarded scumpair after both "fakeclaiming" power roles, do you think I could go with the No NK option when almost half of the players were against me and my supposedely only chance to win the game was to nk someone?

Thhink, people. This confirms, IMO, that we are facing a 3 scum team that 100% has Xyl and prob ortolan on it with a scum in the masonry. My situation was shitty yesterday, do you really think I deliberately put myself in the same situation than yesterday?

I have no qualms with this, if you flip tracker I will agree Empking is town and there are 3 remaining scum- I would definitely want to lynch Kinetic. Otherwise if you're scum we kill Empking and win the game. It is impossible that neither you nor Kinetic are scum.

[ortolan]

populartajo is a necessary lynch even if you're not sold on him being scum

If he's scum we lynch Empking

If he flips tracker we believe Empking's doctor claim, know there is a roleblocker in the setup which means we have a setup with tracker, doctor and scum roleblocker which gives us more information about the masons, if they are indeed masons (makes one of them more likely to be scum)

[ortolan]

LYNCH TAJO WHY IS IT SO HARD TO GET A LYNCH ON THE SCUMMY UNCONFIRMED POWER ROLES

[ortolan]

I already did, if you come up town I would lynch Kinetic/Xyl from memory

[ortolan]

Why has tajo still not claimed who he targeted last night?

[ortolan]

Is there any need, I've wanted to lynch you for ages

[ortolan]

==========[]

[ortolan]

I think this is an appropriate juncture to lynch the scum

[ortolan]

I needn't remind you how scummy tajo was to claim day one and how he instantly "assumed" he was role-blocked when he received a "no result" pm

[ortolan]

this town gets the rubber stamp of fail

[ortolan]

and no, lynching me is not acceptable as I am in none of my potential scum teams and I have never said it is guaranteed tajo is scum but simply that his lynch is optimal

[ortolan]

tajo is not scumhunting, he is trying to avoid being lynched

he's very obvious scum

if he, laughably is town, we lynch Kinetic afterwards.

Can we please finish this game I don't wish to draw out the inevitable tajo-lynch any longer.

[ortolan]

He votes Xyl then solely because MafiaSSK votes me he follows.

Let's watch the movement of Empking's vote now

[ortolan]

no, if you are not scum the only other option is Kinetic (and Kinetic/Xyl is a plausible scumteam but we can cross that bridge when we come to it).

[ortolan]

And I'm the odd one out. Very odd position for a townie.

Yes...it is.

[ortolan]

cause only alternative at that point is Kinetic/probably Xyl.

[ortolan]

Best to lynch a mason on the off-chance they are gambiting scum

[ortolan]

but...if you would prefer I could lynch Xyl after tajo is that is what is desired

but at this rate we're not going to lynch tajo, town is going to throw the game away

[ortolan]

no. let's lynch tajo. not lynching him is unnaceptable.

[ortolan]

why do you think it is so hard to lynch the scummy "tracker"? Do you think it might be because he is scum?

[ortolan]

stephoscope look at the DEAD PLAYERS LIST and then try to chant to yourself again that all our vanilla claims are implausible

The interesting point is that all three vanilla townies are on pop, and the power roles are split on vanilla townies. That is what is making me hesitate so much.

That is only because I called Empking out pre-emptively before Empking was able to add his opportunistic vote to tajo's opportunistic vote on the terrible wagon on me started by MafiaSSK. Yesterday the two were voting for the same person (and again preventing us lynching tajo-scum). Also note that tajo changed his vote from Xyl to me for no valid reason except that he now had a probable (if "misguided") townie now voting for me.

Do you really think tajo is that selfish and bad a player as town to claim tracker day one under no pressure and remain a very strong liability for the town for the entire game and continually oppose his lynch which gives us much needed setup information? No. He is scum. Lynch the scum please.

[ortolan]

hi

[ortolan]

I think by stalling like this the scum are hoping someone will lurk

[ortolan]

it seems the masons are cooperating for the first time ever this game, only to all be using craplogick to attack the wrong people

[ortolan]

why are you uncomfortable even though it isn't LYOL?

[ortolan]

Please tell me how I've been "emotional" and "unreliable" so I can see what exactly has given rise to your incorrect and bad read on me

[ortolan]

I'm not in for lynching emp right now even if we lynch xyl/ort. If we lynch either we lynch pop as far as I'm concerned.

SCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUMSCUM

Now the question becomes:

Do we hit a vanilla (Ort or Xyl), a mason (Not sure honestly, the more I watch the less I think any are scum) or Emp.

Look, buddy, I know you've tried to line up this plan to lynch one of us in end-game, but is is patently insulting that you would try to undermine me at this point by suggesting I am anything other than EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY OBV-TOWN.

Kinetic is seriously scum, after Empking flips mafia goon and elvis dies tonight, he gets lynched tomorrow. Please don't throw away this game when I have given you this scum on a platter, it happens far too frequently.

I just pray I'm not left alive in end-game with MafiaSSK and Kinetic, where MafiaSSK will almost certainly vote me for emotional attacks (which happen to be on scum).

Vote: Empking

[ortolan]

If Emp is Scum, scumlist:

Ort
Xyl
Steph
Elvis
SSK

You are not town. No way could you be this horrible as town. You are saying if the two power-roles who I have been calling scum repeatedly and whom tried to get an opposing wagon on me going; if indeed they are scum as I have been saying constantly, repeatedly; you are saying this makes me most likely to be scum? You must be scum, there is no way you could have such a cosmically retarded notion if you are town.

[ortolan]

Xyl's setup speculation is silly

You are extremely obvious scum so there is not point trying to outguess the mod and clear you based on setup information

Tellingly the "lynch all lurkers" dynamic has actually served an extremely pro-town function this game. Not only does it discourage lurking and force people to participate but it was responsible for our first two scum-lynches. So Xyl should take that into account while speculating about the setup before he clears an extremely scummy player based on that. I also find it hilarious how much effort you're going to to setup your end-game gambit as scum. Unlike Xyl you don't seem remotely convinced that lynching Empking will end the game, because you are also scum.

I know Xyl and elvis and myself are town, the masons would otherwise be some of the scummiest players in the game and at least some would certainly already have been lynched were they not masons.

Here's hoping the game ends here, but if it doesn't lynch Kinetic for he is obv-scum.

[ortolan]

and Xyl isn't taking into account that if the masons are all town then the scum are screwed because they probably have to waste three night-kills just to get rid of a confirmed group

And using setup speculation to override the fact that tajo e.g. claimed he'd been roleblocked in order to frame me, I was attacking him day one and voted him first day two and again insisted we lynch him before Empking; and finally he changed from Xyl's to my wagon today - that is still horrible logic anyway you look at it.

[ortolan]

Also note the fail-logic in Kinetic saying that it is impossible for the masons to be scum (which is the whole reason for directing suspicion towards me and Xyl), yet he still puts elvis at the bottom of the list, supposedly more confirmed town than the masons who his argument rests on them being *confirmed* town. Definite scum here.

[ortolan]

At least it saved me from trying to defend myself.

Sorry I couldn't save you scumbuddy. I tried my best but Kinetic forced my hand.

[ortolan]

that's ok

Empking was obviously scum contingent on tajo, after he claimed doctor he had absolutely no skepticism whatsoever of tajo's claim, and his claimed targets were dodgy also (and he has all but admitted to being scum with his last post).

[ortolan]

oops

sorry Kinetic ~

good game guys

I definitely thought there'd 5 scum in a double day game, I shoulda listened to the kings of setup speculation Kinetic and Xyl