Lynch All Lurkers Mafia! GAME OVER

[Ether]

4 Nuwen (elvis_knits, roflcopter, Xylthixlm, Stephoscope)
2 MafiaSSK (Empking, Nuwen)
1 roflcopter (image)
1 Xylthixlm (populartajo)

3 Unvote (Kinetic, MafiaSSK, ortolan)

11 alive; 6 to lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

Thanks. I've been in 3 games with tajo and he was town in all of them.

Do you think my play is different here than in those 3 games?

No, but that doesn't mean much. I glanced through that scum game and your playstyle appears to be annoyingly hard to read.

[elvis_knits]

Lynching Nuwen will help because tajo is basically the only person she confirms as town in her uber-helpful lists. If Nuwen is scum, which I think she is, she makes tajo look worse.

Funny how I think one of the reasons she is town is because she is defending me, something scum wouldnt do for obvious reasons.

What do you think of all the other points I have brought up about her?

[elvis_knits]

I also want a clear answer from Steph about if the masons are confirmed to each other or not.

I think there has been some back and forth about this, or possibly it has been SSK fucking with us.

What do you mean? Do I know whether the other two are town? No, I don't.

Post 696 explains the earlier confusion I had.

Anyway, I have nothing to share regarding my mason partners right now, but for me personally, I'm thinking Mastin wouldn't have gone for the 72-hour bonus if we all haven't been on to something.

Unvote
Vote: Nuwen

Has your other mason responded to your PM? Does mystery mason think SSK is town? Do you think mystery mason is town? What are your feelings suspicions regarding the masonry?

[populartajo]

Lynching Nuwen will help because tajo is basically the only person she confirms as town in her uber-helpful lists. If Nuwen is scum, which I think she is, she makes tajo look worse.

Funny how I think one of the reasons she is town is because she is defending me, something scum wouldnt do for obvious reasons.

What do you think of all the other points I have brought up about her?

They are valid (sometimes they feel like disagreeing in playstyle) but I think my point outweights them.

I really think that scum wouldn't put me in prob town status and start and wouldnt attack also someone that was prob town as the game progressed.

It just doesnt fit coming from a scum pov.

[elvis_knits]

Lynching Nuwen will help because tajo is basically the only person she confirms as town in her uber-helpful lists. If Nuwen is scum, which I think she is, she makes tajo look worse.

Funny how I think one of the reasons she is town is because she is defending me, something scum wouldnt do for obvious reasons.

What do you think of all the other points I have brought up about her?

They are valid (sometimes they feel like disagreeing in playstyle) but I think my point outweights them.

I really think that scum wouldn't put me in prob town status and start and wouldnt attack also someone that was prob town as the game progressed.

It just doesnt fit coming from a scum pov.

Tajo, if what you say is true, and you are town, and are being RBed every night, you are no threat to scum. They do not need to lynch you. They can keep you alive forever. They can earn town credit by arguing against your lynch. If you get lynched they look more townie for having believed you.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't like the "scum would never defend a townie" argument from tajo, especially since he only seems to apply it when the townie being defended is himself. It seems more like reverse OMGUS than anything else.

[populartajo]

I don't like the "scum would never defend a townie" argument from tajo, especially since he only seems to apply it when the townie being defended is himself. It seems more like reverse OMGUS than anything else.

Why would it apply with someone that Im not sure is town?

Its not reverse OMGUS, its just that I bet Nuwenscum would have put me at least in neutral in case it was necessary to lynch me.

[populartajo]

Lynching Nuwen will help because tajo is basically the only person she confirms as town in her uber-helpful lists. If Nuwen is scum, which I think she is, she makes tajo look worse.

Funny how I think one of the reasons she is town is because she is defending me, something scum wouldnt do for obvious reasons.

What do you think of all the other points I have brought up about her?

They are valid (sometimes they feel like disagreeing in playstyle) but I think my point outweights them.

I really think that scum wouldn't put me in prob town status and start and wouldnt attack also someone that was prob town as the game progressed.

It just doesnt fit coming from a scum pov.

Tajo, if what you say is true, and you are town, and are being RBed every night, you are no threat to scum. They do not need to lynch you. They can keep you alive forever. They can earn town credit by arguing against your lynch. If you get lynched they look more townie for having believed you.

Good point. But its not like scum are going to roleblock me forever. What if they need to lynch me?

[Xylthixlm]

I don't like the "scum would never defend a townie" argument from tajo, especially since he only seems to apply it when the townie being defended is himself. It seems more like reverse OMGUS than anything else.

Why would it apply with someone that Im not sure is town?

You're sure that the dead townies are town. Why not apply your theory there?

[roflcopter]

what the hell is tajo smoking?

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX is town

^ By tajologic I must be town.

[populartajo]

SpyreX is town

^ By tajologic I must be town.

Are you really comparing me (a claimed tracker that at some point was about to be lynched) with Spryrex (a solid townie that was nked)?

And are you really comparing the strong read Nuwen has of me with your "x is town" reads that you change like your underwear?

Its not craplogic. Its about the situation and the players involved.

Gezz this is not so hard to understand.

[Xylthixlm]

Well, I'm not saying your logic is wrong, since I

am

town.

[Xylthixlm]

I wanted to check tajo's tell so I looked through a game where Nuwen was scum, and Mind Screw 3 where I was scum, to see if either of us cleared a townie like that in either game.

Nope. (I did clear a scumbuddy in MS3.)

tajo might have something here, maybe.

[roflcopter]

for tajo's logic to make any sense, you have to assume tajo is town, which no one but tajo can do.

I did clear a scumbuddy in MS3.

congratulations, you just pointed out the glaringly obvious fact that tajo and nuwen could be scum together, and tajo is in so deep with the whole defending nuwen thing that he is practically forced to continue doing so.

we need another nuwen vote

[ortolan]

hello, will read now/soon

[Xylthixlm]

Did some rereading. I'm feeling decently confident that image and Nuwen are scum here. Nuwen's defense of tajo is halfhearted at best. image was giving me scummy vibes earlier, and reading his posts the only people he's really defended were scum.

This is the operative statement. The others are inoperative.

Town

Xylthixlm
roflcopter
elvis_knits
populartajo
Stephoscope
MafiaSSK

Unknown

Empking
Kinetic
ortolan

Scum

image
Nuwen

[roflcopter]

i think you have a misplaced confidence in poptajo, xyl, otherwise i'm liking your new list

[ortolan]

Um, yer. I had quite a lot to read so hopefully I'll remember most of my points.

elvis is confirmed town, I can't see rofl not being town either. Xyl's more than likely town also. I actually think tajo is town also.

Read post 1744 by Mastin (where he wants us to look at the reasons troll was night-killed, one of which is a clear attempt to direct suspicion onto tajo in 196), for example. Plus tajo is not OMGUSing his attackers which suggests to me a desire to genuinely scumhunt. This also makes me think MafiaSSK is probably town- because Zorblag had a go at him in 186 which Mastin linked to. I also am suspicious of Nuwen and one of Nuwen's targets was MafiaSSK.

image:

Suggestion: Mastin needs to die today. Yes. But let's lynch him second. Then we see more interaction from him, and learn more when he flips one way or the other.

Hypothesis: if say there are four or five scum left alive, if scum got a townie lynched in the first half of the day, they might have simply tried to make a lurk for it in the next part of the day- if say all 3/4 of them apart from Mastin got over the 72 hour mark they would get up to five or so nightkills that night, which would potentially enable them to endgame.

2133 continues to be a huge stretch on rofl.

I have zero read on Empking from memory and I believe from experience he's perfectly capable of simply flying under the radar to endgame as scum. I would like a suspicions list, Empking.

Wow I really dislike how quick Image got those votes so I'm thinking he's town. I really dislike how Rolf seems to think he controls the town.

Scumlist:
image
Nuwen
Empking

Those are my choices, locked in.

Vote: image

I think he is scummier than Nuwen but I could be convinced otherwise, my suspicion of Nuwen is to a large extent based on the links between the two.

[Xylthixlm]

why are you voting image instead of Nuwen when Nuwen is at 4 votes and image is at 0?

[ortolan]

I think he is scummier than Nuwen but I could be convinced otherwise, my suspicion of Nuwen is to a large extent based on the links between the two.

[Xylthixlm]

Is the difference in scumminess really more important than the difference in bandwagon size?

[ortolan]

deadline is ages away anyhow, putting someone on L-1 isn't prudent

I want a suspicions list from Empking and I want more opportunity to comment on the apparent near-consensus we're getting to

[elvis_knits]

I think putting Nuwen at L-1 is perfectly prudent. She didn't post yesterday despite the chorus of cries for her death. A little more pressure can only be good.

---

How many scum are people expecting in this game?

Mastin alluded to us having 6. I think that was floated as the maximum number possible. Nuwen has said 4-6 scum. I think that's just based on a 1/3 to 1/4 % scum ratio. Ortolan just alluded to 5 or 6 scum ("3/4 of them apart from Mastin").

How does having a double day change the ratio of scum?

Should we take any hints from what Mastin said or draw any conclusions based on numbers that others are coming up with?

I was thinking more along the lines of 4 scum, possibly 5. Which means 2 left, possibly 3. If there were 6 total, and 4 scum left... that makes me a bit concerned.