Lynch All Lurkers Mafia! GAME OVER

[Ether]

1 Kinetic (Stephoscope)

7 Unvote (elvis_knits, Empking, Kinetic, MafiaSSK, ortolan, populartajo, Xylthixlm)

8 alive; 5 to lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

You know... tajo said he would send Yosarian2 a PM asking about his role, but he never answered my question about what the reply was. If I was a tracker and had a string of "no result" answers, I'd definitely check to see if that possibly meant no target.

tajo: Did you ask Yosarian2 to clarify what result you would get if you were blocked vs what result you would get if your target did nothing?

The most likely explanation is that I was roleblocked.

I dont think Yos could clarify this but I dont lose anything, so Im PMing him right now.

[Empking]

As I see it the remaining plausible scumteams based on claims are:
Empking and populartajo
Empking, populartajo, and

one of elvis_knits or ortolan

xyl

A mason and

one of elvis_knits or ortolan

xyl

All three masons

Fixed.

I think we can eliminate ortolan since he was voting AH during the time of the malyss lynch. Let me know if you disagree.

Trying to early distance yourself from a scum buddy who's going up in smoke isn't unheatrd of from scum.

Xyl: Why only one mason?

[Xylthixlm]

Two scum masons in a three man masonry would be bastard modding.

[Empking]

Two scum masons in a three man masonry would be bastard modding.

Why?

[ortolan]

I was literally going to say the same thing.

It's bastard modding because that's

never

happened before and would pretty much result in a meta of masons being 100% useless. If one flips scum then the town would (right, imo) assume that the others are town, which is almost an auto-win for the scum.

[ortolan]

rightly*

[ortolan]

vote: populartajo

[ortolan]

see logic as before- if tajo is town and Empking is scum it made far more sense for Empking to just claim vanilla in order that we lynch tajo- he would have had instructions from his scumbuddies to this effect also, assuming they can daytalk as the masons claim to be able to. Xyl (as elvis says, maybe unprovable, but I'm willing to assume it at present), elvis and me (from my perspective) are town, the whole mason group being scum is implausible (why claim a third member?)

Kinetic's last post is pretty scummy actually- suspecting both his fellow masons is pretty damn weird:

4: Of the masons, I still have suspicious of both SSK and Steph. Steph is higher than SSK on my scum list. I need to see if SSK leans toward manipulative as scum, but his straight lurker tendencies seem to be a vote against that. I need to read up on him as scum and see if any of the QTs were posted where he participated. Same for Steph.

Even if tajo flips scum (which obviously I'm hoping otherwise we may well lose) this doesn't preclude Kinetic being scum.

3: Of the remaining vanilla, my gut is screaming at me that elvis is acting peculiar. However the ONLY way I can justify elvis being scum is if she is the last remaining scum or if there is only one scum buddy left, a scum team of 2 remaining. As such I can't vote for elvis unless and until there are fewer players left and still no scum have been found. Ort and Xyl seem to damn town for me to justify voting for either of them.

What is the read on elvis based on? Plus, you simply seem here to be leaving yourself open to vote her later, is this correct?

5: Of Pop/Empking, I HATE the doc claim from Emp. If he had claimed vanilla I think I would have voted him over image. But I also feel there was so much suspicion from so many sources that I felt were strong that something should have been there. If I had to choose right now, I'd vote Pop.

Wait, so if Empking hadn't claimed doc, you would have voted him? Shouldn't you have voted tajo if Empking didn't claim doc?

[Empking]

I was literally going to say the same thing.

It's bastard modding because that's

never

happened before and would pretty much result in a meta of masons being 100% useless. If one flips scum then the town would (right, imo) assume that the others are town, which is almost an auto-win for the scum.

Allowing scum to gain a night kill if they lurk for more than 72 hours hasn't been done before. What about that?

[ortolan]

fair point

who should we lynch, Empking?

[Empking]

fair point

who should we lynch, Empking?

Mafia

[ortolan]

which player is mafia?

[Empking]

MafiaSSK

[ortolan]

and?

[Kinetic]

see logic as before- if tajo is town and Empking is scum it made far more sense for Empking to just claim vanilla in order that we lynch tajo- he would have had instructions from his scumbuddies to this effect also, assuming they can daytalk as the masons claim to be able to. Xyl (as elvis says, maybe unprovable, but I'm willing to assume it at present), elvis and me (from my perspective) are town, the whole mason group being scum is implausible (why claim a third member?)

Kinetic's last post is pretty scummy actually- suspecting both his fellow masons is pretty damn weird:

You suspect them both. It comes down to logic, if there are more than one scum left currently than the chances of them being one of the masons raises significantly. The only chance that no mason is scum is if there is only one scum left.

This is where it becomes a difficult choice. I haven't played the whole game with the both of them, but so far by actions I suspect Steph a LOT more than SSK, but I'm keeping my mind open tot he possibility that SSK could be scum. That is how I am. I don't let and possible option escape me just because I don't believe it will happen if it still could happen.

If I had to choose, I'd vote Steph right now, but I'm not sure voting either of the masons is the right play at this point.

3: Of the remaining vanilla, my gut is screaming at me that elvis is acting peculiar. However the ONLY way I can justify elvis being scum is if she is the last remaining scum or if there is only one scum buddy left, a scum team of 2 remaining. As such I can't vote for elvis unless and until there are fewer players left and still no scum have been found. Ort and Xyl seem to damn town for me to justify voting for either of them.

What is the read on elvis based on? Plus, you simply seem here to be leaving yourself open to vote her later, is this correct?

This read is based on me going over the reasons for certain actions elvis has made, as well as her pushing that masons are scummy, not for any other reason but trying to use their role as it was intended.

I understand some of her logic, but it falls flat on its face if I look at it from the PoV of a final scum trying to avoid being blindsided. Her constant defense of Steph also takes a new light in this possibility because it is her trying to sue discord among the masons, with Steph being the odd one out and the one most likely to give her her wish of seeing the QT.

Also, it explains how she was so quick to notice that Mastin hit the lurker timer. She didn't seem to be watching timers, but it could have been Yos posted that Mastin gained two lurker points or something in the QT and she immediately decided that Mastin was going to be lynched once someone figured it out (which they would most likely), so instead she preempted them and gained townie points.

The rofl kill makes some more sense in this possibility as well. Besides getting rid of an influential townie it also helped cement elvis as town even further.

Is this case completely circumstantial and could be wrong. Yes. Do I think it is worth voting her now? No.

There are quite a few things that have to happen before I am happy voting for elvis. And I know I am looking at all the scum possibilities in a few situations where it is a coin flip, but that is how I'm thinking.

Yes I am leaving open the possibility of voting elvis, as I think the possibility of her being scum is low, but still there.

Some things that break this case:

If scum, none of the masons can be her scum partner. Why: Because of pop's claim. As a tracker she's also claimed a roleblocker is out there. THUS, elvis's scum partner in this situation must be one of (Emp, Pop, Xyl, Ort). Those possibilities seem very unlikely, with the most likely being Pop, second most likely being Emp in my book.

Second, pop coming up as tracker severely breaks this case as well, since this would require elvis-scum to be teamed with one of (Emp, Xyl, Ort). I can't imagine Elvis both being able to RB and Kill in this scenario as solo-scum.

These are reasons why elvis is by far not a good lynch for today in either way, and one I won't pursue at all today, however if certain things fall into place I am not eliminating the possibility of voting her in the future.

5: Of Pop/Empking, I HATE the doc claim from Emp. If he had claimed vanilla I think I would have voted him over image. But I also feel there was so much suspicion from so many sources that I felt were strong that something should have been there. If I had to choose right now, I'd vote Pop.

Wait, so if Empking hadn't claimed doc, you would have voted him? Shouldn't you have voted tajo if Empking didn't claim doc?[/quote]

Not necessarily. True, it would have placed pop as the only power role, and certainly I may have voted her and assisted with her lynch in that possibility, but I haven't liked Empking's play since B5 (I was masons with him in that game). If he would have participated we could have won that game as a town a LOT easier, but instead he lurked hardcore, in both the thread and from PMs and every time I tried to coordinate with him he would merely ignore me. It was frustrating.

This is also why I don't believe any of the bullshit that "O, Empking wouldn't have claimed doc as town his scum buddies would have told him not to". No, Empking in my experience doesn't listen to anyone. If his scum buddies told him not to then they would be saying that NOW in thread because he failed to listen and now they're trying to salvage the situation and say 'No one in their right mind would allow that'.

Anyway, I would have still felt that with 8 players left, and 5 vanilla at least 1-2 scum were in the vanilla pool, with 1-2 scum in the power role pool.

If I had to choose a vanilla in that situation to vote, it would be Empking, not image. In the previous lynch I lynched image for similar reasons (scummiest in a pool of 4 players and most likely to be scum with a group of 2-3 scum remaining in a 9 player situation.)

[Empking]

and?

You asked me a question.

Kinetic: Are you referring to me not being on at the exact time you PM'd me when we were masons?

[Kinetic]

and?

You asked me a question.

Kinetic: Are you referring to me not being on at the exact time you PM'd me when we were masons?

I'm referring to the many plans I made in that game which would have been better served with a player who helped me out rather than someone who was almost completely absent.

For instance: The claims I was putting forward originally would have been better coming from you. Your role could survive (literally) any backlash.

After I waited a long time with no reply I decided I needed to go forward with the initial plan with or without you. I had a back up plan with you and me claiming the others roles so I might at least have some cursory protection, but you claimed your own role despite me asking you not to, and with little/no response (I can't remember if you responded but I don't believe you ever did) to the numerous PMs I sent you.

By Late-Early to Mid game I think I stopped PMing you or expecting responses when I did since it felt like I was alone in the game despite having a confirmed mason partner.

[ortolan]

pretty sure Kinetic is busing tajo and Empking

This read is based on me going over the reasons for certain actions elvis has made, as well as her pushing that masons are scummy, not for any other reason but trying to use their role as it was intended.

I don't think anyone would say you've used your role as intended

I understand some of her logic, but it falls flat on its face if I look at it from the PoV of a final scum trying to avoid being blindsided.

Well yes, when you look at her as scum you tend to read her as scum

Her constant defense of Steph also takes a new light in this possibility because it is her trying to sue discord among the masons, with Steph being the odd one out and the one most likely to give her her wish of seeing the QT.

Don't get this point.

Also, it explains how she was so quick to notice that Mastin hit the lurker timer. She didn't seem to be watching timers, but it could have been Yos posted that Mastin gained two lurker points or something in the QT and she immediately decided that Mastin was going to be lynched once someone figured it out (which they would most likely), so instead she preempted them and gained townie points.

"She voted Mastin, it might have been because she saw he'd gained lurker points in their qt". Pretty darn weak.

The rofl kill makes some more sense in this possibility as well. Besides getting rid of an influential townie it also helped cement elvis as town even further.

I'm pretty sure rofl would never have lynched her in a million years, which makes this point invalid. Killing rofl doesn't conceivably benefit her.

If scum, none of the masons can be her scum partner. Why: Because of pop's claim. As a tracker she's also claimed a roleblocker is out there. THUS, elvis's scum partner in this situation must be one of (Emp, Pop, Xyl, Ort). Those possibilities seem very unlikely, with the most likely being Pop, second most likely being Emp in my book.

I don't even understand this, but why are you assuming there are only two scum left?

Second, pop coming up as tracker severely breaks this case as well, since this would require elvis-scum to be teamed with one of (Emp, Xyl, Ort). I can't imagine Elvis both being able to RB and Kill in this scenario as solo-scum.

WHAT!?!?

These are reasons why elvis is by far not a good lynch for today in either way, and one I won't pursue at all today, however if certain things fall into place I am not eliminating the possibility of voting her in the future.

What, you mean if we lynch tajo-scum, and Empking-scum, both of whom you've nominated as likeliest buddies to elvis, you can then push for her lynch?

Not necessarily. True, it would have placed pop as the only power role, and certainly I may have voted her and assisted with her lynch in that possibility, but I haven't liked Empking's play since B5 (I was masons with him in that game). If he would have participated we could have won that game as a town a LOT easier, but instead he lurked hardcore, in both the thread and from PMs and every time I tried to coordinate with him he would merely ignore me. It was frustrating.

Wait, so you would prefer to lynch Empking because you think he is a bad player???

This is also why I don't believe any of the bullshit that "O, Empking wouldn't have claimed doc as town his scum buddies would have told him not to". No, Empking in my experience doesn't listen to anyone. If his scum buddies told him not to then they would be saying that NOW in thread because he failed to listen and now they're trying to salvage the situation and say 'No one in their right mind would allow that'.

Yes, I think it's bullshit also, because tajo is not town with Empking scum. They're both scum; with you.

Anyway, I would have still felt that with 8 players left, and 5 vanilla at least 1-2 scum were in the vanilla pool, with 1-2 scum in the power role pool.

I reckon 2/2 scum in the power role pool, 1/3 in the mason pool and 0/3 in the vanilla pool.

My main thing against Kinetic is that his attack on elvis really, really, makes no sense.

[ortolan]

ATTN: Kinetic is WIFOMing in 2742- by referring to a past game where he was mason with Empking he is relying on us committing the gambler's fallacy and discounting the possibility of him being scum with Empking this game.

I did exactly the same thing in a past game with Empking ironically (named a previous game where we both happened to be scumbuddies).

[Kinetic]

Of course when you break down each point like that it severely weakens the case. This is a group of circumstantial insights that I've noticed which are more like a framework. Each individual stick is not very strong in and of itself, but the little nuances make a stronger whole than in part.

But this isn't an attack, don't strawman me. You asked why I was willing to entertain the possibility of her being scum and voting her in the FUTURE. This is why, and there are also some things that could happen that could outright confirm her in my book. If she isn't scum those possibilities have a very real chance of happened (especially if we lynch pop today).

[Kinetic]

ATTN: Kinetic is WIFOMing in 2742- by referring to a past game where he was mason with Empking he is relying on us committing the gambler's fallacy and discounting the possibility of him being scum with Empking this game.

I did exactly the same thing in a past game with Empking ironically (named a previous game where we both happened to be scumbuddies).

WIFOM or not, this is my past experience with Empking, and is the reason I won't accept "Empking's buddies wouldn't let him do this" as a valid defense against his actions.

Could it have happened? Sure, but I'm not betting anything on it or giving any credence to such a theory.

[populartajo]

Im here catching up.

Seems I miss a lot duiring weekend.

[populartajo]

You know... tajo said he would send Yosarian2 a PM asking about his role, but he never answered my question about what the reply was. If I was a tracker and had a string of "no result" answers, I'd definitely check to see if that possibly meant no target.

tajo: Did you ask Yosarian2 to clarify what result you would get if you were blocked vs what result you would get if your target did nothing?

The most likely explanation is that I was roleblocked.

I dont think Yos could clarify this but I dont lose anything, so Im PMing him right now.

Last week has been busy as hell, I forgot to answer that.

This is what Yos said, paraprhrasing obv:

If a tracker get roleblocked or failed, "No result";

If a tracker targeted someone who didn't target, "Player (X) did not taget anyone."

[populartajo]

5 image (Xylthixlm, ortolan, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Kinetic)
2 Xylthixlm (populartajo, image)
1 MafiaSSK (Empking)

1 Not Voting(Stephoscope)

9 alive; 5 to lynch.

IMAGE WAS LYNCHED. HE WAS A VANILLA TOWNIE.

It is now Block 2.

Facepalm. There is at least one scum in this list. Why are you trying to lynch the incorrect people?

Xylthixlm, ortolan, elvis_knits, MafiaSSK, Kinetic