Lynch All Lurkers Mafia! GAME OVER

[Xylthixlm]

Your second scenario is nonsensical though, you go from claiming I am mutually exclusive scum with tajo and Empking to saying if there is a 3-man scumteam I am scum with them. This means if tajo and Empking do flip scum, and the game isn't over, you'll try to get me lynched next (despite me attacking those two the hardest of anyone all game). This makes me think you, rather than Kinetic, may be scum with them, but I need to re-read.

You're seriously considering a populartajo+Empking+Kinetic scumteam? That would make the setup

11 vanilla townies
2 masons
1 scum mason
4 mafia goons (or godfathers or roleblockers)

That's 5 scum in an 18 player town with no town power roles, one of which is a scum mason. That would be possibly balanced as a nightless game. With scumkills? No. populartajo+Empking+(any mason) is out.

[Xylthixlm]

elvis_knits+ortolan+(any mason) is also out, because they would easily have the votes to lynch populartajo right now and win.

That leaves a few possible 3-player scumteams involving (one of populartajo or Empking) + a mason + someone else, but those are out for almost the same reason as tajo+Emp+Kinetic - one town power role isn't enough to balance that, and would actually make the setup more swingy.

Once you eliminate all of those the only 3 player scumteam left is populartajo+Empking+ortolan. (Or something involving me, I guess. Once again I have no reason to work it out.)

[Xylthixlm]

Mmm, elvis_knits+populartajo+ortolan is also theoretically possible.

Realistically speaking I can't see either of those being the case, I think we're down to 2 scum left.

[ortolan]

4 scum out of 18 in a double day game?

That would be possibly balanced as a nightless game. With scumkills? No. populartajo+Empking+(any mason) is out.

Again, double day.

[Xylthixlm]

5 scum out of 18 is just about right for nightless vanilla
2 scum out of 18 is just about right for single day vanilla
I'd say 4 scum out of 18 for double day with a mason group as the only power roles is just about balanced

[Xylthixlm]

Hey, my intuition is just about right. According to mith's calculations here, an 18-player double day vanilla game is balanced by 3 scum (EV 49%) or 4 scum (EV 36%). I can definitely see 4 scum and a group of unconfirmed masons.

[Empking]

Vote: Xyl

EK's point about Xyl's interaction with Mastin/AH seems like its correct to me.

[ortolan]

Hmm. If Xyl is scum and Empking and tajo are not, that must mean Xyl is scum with only one mason (elvis and I are not scum), which means there are only two scum left, which means even if we lynch wrong we don't lose.

Either Empking and tajo are scum and Xyl isn't, or Xyl is being bused by Empking and tajo and vice versa, or Xyl is scum with a mason- possibly Kinetic. tajo/Empking's lynch is still optimal, and tajo is the preferred candidate of those two for the earlier reasons I described.

elvis I urge you to reconsider your vote (although I don't think there's much danger of quickhammering currently). Or tell me why you disagree with this argument.

[ortolan]

also mountainous slips thus far. Giving tajo a win as scum would be highly, highly unsatisfying (yer whatever, this might be construed as scummy etc.)

[ortolan]

possible scum:

Empking/tajo
Empking/tajo/Xyl
Empking/tajo/Kinetic
Xyl/Kinetic

[MafiaSSK]

Vote: Xyl

EK's point about Xyl's interaction with Mastin/AH seems like its correct to me.

You vote just based on interaction?

[Empking]

Not just interaction.

[Ether]

3 populartajo (ortolan, Xylthixlm, Kinetic)
3 Xylthixlm (populartajo, elvis_knits, Empking)
1 Kinetic (Stephoscope)

1 Unvote (MafiaSSK)

8 alive; 5 to lynch.

[populartajo]

Hey, my intuition is just about right. According to mith's calculations here, an 18-player double day vanilla game is balanced by 3 scum (EV 49%) or 4 scum (EV 36%). I can definitely see 4 scum and a group of unconfirmed masons.

I dont get this. 4 scum and a group of unconfirmed masons? That means that there is a scum in the masonry?

[populartajo]

I sincerely doubt we have 4 scum in a double day game. I really do.

I think the most likely explanation in a game where masons can easily be confirmed as easy as day 1 and where there are no abundant night kills, is that there has to be a scum in the masonry.

This explains why a)the masionry hasnt worked and b)why all the masons are alive so far.

Do I have to repeat why an Empking-.Tajo scumteam would be retarded?

[elvis_knits]

possible scum:

Empking/tajo
Empking/tajo/Xyl
Empking/tajo/Kinetic
Xyl/Kinetic

I see Xyl/Kinetic as most likely right now.

[elvis_knits]

3 populartajo (ortolan, Xylthixlm, Kinetic)
1 Kinetic (Stephoscope)

4 Unvote (elvis_knits, Empking, MafiaSSK, populartajo)

8 alive; 5 to lynch.

This tells me that either A) Ort and/or Xyl is scum or Pop is scum.

I don't like this post.

1) No comment on my Xyl case.

2) Encouraging a possible false dilema.

[Xylthixlm]

Hey, my intuition is just about right. According to mith's calculations here, an 18-player double day vanilla game is balanced by 3 scum (EV 49%) or 4 scum (EV 36%). I can definitely see 4 scum and a group of unconfirmed masons.

I dont get this. 4 scum and a group of unconfirmed masons? That means that there is a scum in the masonry?

No. It means the masons get role PMs that don't confirm them.

[Xylthixlm]

I sincerely doubt we have 4 scum in a double day game. I really do.

I think the most likely explanation in a game where masons can easily be confirmed as easy as day 1 and where there are no abundant night kills, is that there has to be a scum in the masonry.

This explains why a)the masionry hasnt worked and b)why all the masons are alive so far.

Do I have to repeat why an Empking-.Tajo scumteam would be retarded?

This post is pure bullshit. Good going tajo.

[Xylthixlm]

3 populartajo (ortolan, Xylthixlm, Kinetic)
1 Kinetic (Stephoscope)

4 Unvote (elvis_knits, Empking, MafiaSSK, populartajo)

8 alive; 5 to lynch.

This tells me that either A) Ort and/or Xyl is scum or Pop is scum.

I don't like this post.

1) No comment on my Xyl case.

2) Encouraging a possible false dilema.

It's entirely correct, except that Kinetic is assuming there are 3 scum left alive. In that case, if at least one of the named players (or Kinetic himself) wasn't scum, scum would have the votes to lynch poptajo and win.

[Xylthixlm]

In fact, in the 3 scum case, either tajo has to be scum or TWO of ortolan, me, and Kinetic have to be scum.

[elvis_knits]

I think there could be scum in the masonry. I think kinetic is scummiest.

But I think its also possible for them all to be town and the scum has left them alive because they suck hard and provide lots of confusion. Thet's a perfect thing to leave in the game. Plus they can always fall back on "lynch fake PR SSK!" if they get into real trouble (like Xyl tried again last page).

[Xylthixlm]

elvis: tajo is the one WIFOMing hard about how the lack of a dead mason must mean one of them is scum.

[elvis_knits]

elvis: tajo is the one WIFOMing hard about how the lack of a dead mason must mean one of them is scum.

He might be right since kinetic is so scummy.

He could very well be wrong though. I don't see how it's scummy if he's wrong.

[ortolan]

I see Xyl/Kinetic as most likely right now.

if it's 2 man that's alright, but we need to insure ourselves against 3 scum remaining in my honest opinion. tajo is a better lynch than Xyl