NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, yeah whether or not I respond quickly depends on the context obviously. Quick responses by themselves aren't a towntell. The context matters.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

DOMO, did you get to my responses explaining why Mara's case is BS?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

His elaboration on Generic and Sakura reads made sense as did his push on Geists.

My push on Geists made sense, but if it makes sense, why do you have them as strong town?

Your paranoia of ffery accusing you reminded me incredibly strongly about Newbie 1415 where you had certain paranoia but suppressed it until it slowly started building up and you threw out a vote and starting pushing for a lynch. Your paranoid reactions match those very closely. I know you can fake paranoia as scum like in the Mentor and Mentee game but it just didn't have the same progression/suppresion of reads and had a lot of other elements like hedging, subtle buddying, and unrealistic expectations that are usually not present in your towngame.

I explained why I have a townread on Geists. I have town and scum baselines for how ffery reacts when her reads are challenged (with variations accounting for how well she knows the target as well as how well the challenger knows the target) both in games I've played and the one I modded. This reaction and follow up matched the town baseline very closely and is very far from the scum baseline. I challenged her reads several times in the games we played together (read the HP game and Micro 252 for instance). The responses are alignment indicative.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Mara, I don't agree with your reasoning for pushing Tammy and I assumed that it was scum motivated. Naturally, I pushed you for it. The reasoning I provided was much the same that Tammy did. I agreed with her reasoning and conclusions. I pointed this out before. She explains it in her 779. We were clearly both wrong about your affiliation.

I also want to respond to this:

I haven't noticed anyone do more than handwave about the past 20 pages or so. I totally TOTALLY disagreed with his push on Maraca, and I thought he made too much of a deal about Tammy being some delicate flower whose day 1 effectiveness could be completely destroyed by a scumread. She's capbable of taking that kind of thing in stride and using it to advantage. I've seen her do it.

I think you misread my intentions because I certainly think Tammy is a big girl that is capable of using things like this to a town advantage. I merely agreed with her assessment of herself that scum would want to throw her off-balance and connected it with past experience. She elaborates on it in 779. This isn't something I deduced by myself.

@ BERT, I never agreed with your read on Geists. I thought it made you town because it came from a town place. Unless you are claiming that I should believe town are always correct, it doesn't follow that I should follow your vote on them. I think you are both town.

@ Generic, I find your stance very scummy. You seem to posturing yourself to vote me based on Mara's certainty despite earlier saying that you were townreading me. Mara and I have played one game together and we didn't interact a lot in it either. You and I played in one game where we interacted a lot. Why would you trust her read over your own?

So, far out of the people that voted me, I find MC the most townish - even without the Mason claim, I think Mara obvtowned herself. I am inclined to believe GoodMorning is the other mason as it matches with MC's read on her and other's thoughts about it. I find Casso extremely scummy. Partly because Nacho is hanging back while Thor troll-votes anyone and everyone without regard to who is town or scum or has any reads at all. Most of his posts are alignment neutral but the fundamental difference is that I believe town-Thor would play to win. As of now, it doesn't seem like they are helping town win. The others on the wagon are null besides Bert who is town. Off the wagon, I am even more confident in my read on Geists. I am getting slightly paranoid that GIF thinks ffery is scum and he has lot more experience playing with her but I evaluated their slot to the best of my ability and still read them as town. Pieguyn's latest posts also re-affirm my previous townread as do Desperado's and Korean BBQ's.

TOWN

:
1) Tammy
2) Geists
3) Desperado
4) Pieguyn
5) Bert
6) GoodMorning
7) MC Maraca

YET TO BE SORTED

:
8) zMuffinMan - Leaning town
9) KoreanBBQ - Leaning town
10) MafiaSSK - Null
11) DOMO - Null
12) BROseidon - Null
13) Norlkaz - Null
14) Cephrir - Null
15) Sakura Hana - Null
16) Ser Arthur Dayne - Null
17) Generic - Leaning scum

SCUM

:
18) Stuffed Crust
19) Casso the King of Seals

I think Casso is scum likely with Stuffed Crust, and possibly a couple of people in my null pile, Generic being a person of concern at this moment. Casso's vote on me is especially suspicious because Nacho knows how to read me really well. He's played plenty of games with me, I've asked for his advice on how to improve my game both in PMs and in public etc. If that slot has a read on me, it would be Nacho's and if they had a scum read, he would attack me extensively. Nacho sitting back and letting Thor throw in a troll vote doesn't match up with his town meta. Nacho also wouldn't be indifferent to having a read on me or let Thor take the lead.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Spoiler: Mara's read on Casso

Vote: Goodmorning

I think the whole ISO blather is pure town sounding lies.

I like the Geist push but imagine Nacho may want to say something about it to me, and he's being a lurksack right now. And he was supposed to be the posting head here, so...yeah.
As a random note - I refuse to sign anything, if you can't tell the difference between Nacho and me I don't care, read us as a single entity anyway, that's how a hydra works last I checked.

I have FF, Stuffed, and Generic as town.
Reads may adjust as we combine them, or maybe Nacho will sheep me - you'll have to wait and see.

Here's my application to the town block also:

You're allowed to sheep me.
-Casso.

Done!

This? this was a great entrance post from thor, but I'm not reading to much into it.

I wonder if my rants will be as effective with that seal face staring out at everyone.

and this made me LOL

I liked Mara's early push on Cephrir. The target in and of itself isn't really that special, but the way she went about it seemed good to me (mostly the whole gearing up for a push and then completely letting it go part, that felt nice). So generic, if you're getting an early townread on Mara based on her initial posting, we're probably in agreement.

This is a really good post from nacho, It shows his thinking and it was exactly what I was doing. not to mention that, doing that in that point in time kinda cut down on some of the things he could have done later on in the day. He is also prone to being paranoid of me, and has lynched me several times when I was town, and when he was town. He could very easily get a way with it but instead, he continues to defend me as the day goes on.

Specifically I'm seeing parallels with how in Buzzword you jumped on the weakness in orcinus' entrance and encouraged/supported others' reads. At least with orcinus it was a genuinely off entrance. Brian's initial posts almost always look strained and uncomfortable.

I don't think Brian has a tendency to look weak early game. I thought there was clear motivation in F-16s opening to stay alive to sort out Nacho-scum, and I thought that it was strange Brian immediately attacked that, especially considering the mentor mentee game that recently ended which proves F-16 can read me pretty competently.

I thought this was pretty genuine

I liked Mara's early push on Cephrir. The target in and of itself isn't really that special, but the way she went about it seemed good to me (mostly the whole gearing up for a push and then completely letting it go part, that felt nice). So generic, if you're getting an early townread on Mara based on her initial posting, we're probably in agreement.

You actually need mara's posts to read them?

Yes? Cabd forming a town block with himself in the center early game doesn't exactly seem like something that's unlikely to be coming from Cabd-scum. Why do you disagree?

and this was a "Well, yeah. Cabd is being cabd and right now, Mara is prolly the window to reading their slot."

this post just resonated super, duper well with me.

Greetings,

Nacho's desire to get into a hydra with me when I *specifically* discuss about the entire concept of my hopes for a hydra being that someone is the posting head and I just get to spew thoughts into a QT is not really amusing to me at this stage.

He's not even doing a good job expressing my thoughts and outrage, in my opinion. Probably because he's convinced he has to paraphrase from a ruddy Hydra QT - which literally makes no sense, copypasta that gak, Nach!

I see people say they can have trouble reading Nach and then admit I'm in the mix and are wondering about reading me... ::insert noise of a back of throat chuckle mixed with a smirk::

In OTHER news!

Let's hit these strokes which Nacho didn't convey for me due to general suckage;

You can tell Geist Thor thinks his push is silly.

You mentioned Brian no more or less than Tammy or Ceph during your posting catchup. It's skeevy to isolate one and try to paint it as an attempt to push a weak player when;

1. We're voting elsewhere.
2. We are mentioning multiple other players as much or more.
3. I wasn't even aware Brian was the easy mislynch that everyone is frothing about.

Seriously, what is this?
I already think your silly backside is scummy and THIS is your big push on our slot? Color me un-ruddy-impressed.
Get to justifying this gak right now.

I don't like how Tammy is getting into a fight with half a hydra's head, and then the other head is like 'I know what Head 1 is doing, I'mma sit back!' and Tammy just keeps punching as though he said nothing...makes it feel fake to me, like she realizes she's supposed to put on a show and is doing what is expected of her.

She's fake playing to her town meta, is what I'm saying.

I wanna get this one out here too. What was that gak Tammy? WHile we're at it, MC can help further justify it as well since apparently it was a major town read in their mind while looking immensely fake to me.
She even basically calmed down in like thirty seconds. It felt VERY fake.
Justify pl0x!
Links to blow ups that look of similar "Realness" to this one as a counterpoint would be awesome.
I don't recall Tammy ever blowing up like that and then going insta-calm in anything I've seen her in though.

Your seemingly-blank-looking-null read on Casso doesn't help anyone either ♫

Have...you even offered a read on this slot? Y'know, as long as you're complaining others haven't?

it seems really weird considering he hadn't included pitoli in his reads list wall before then.

Um...literally the only list we'd made prior to this was one I made.
And it was a town list.
So...whut?

@Goodmorning - I look forward to hearing all your thoughts from your last iso read, and am prepared to wait a few days/weeks for you to catchup and then do an additional iso read, I bet it will be revealing. I'll admit what I expect to be revealed is that you are scum, but I'm a touch the pessimist at heart.

At this stage of the game I'm bored enough to pretty much vote whomever if other players would just ruddy get their act together enough to actually agree on someone to push. I think THIS SLOT might be the biggest unified push to date, and we have like two votes on us. It's pretty obnoxious.

Some people should vote Pitoli or GM or Geist or BBQ or Tammy or something. I'll be there for you, heck, I'd even yell down Nacho on Tammy and push it to L-1 if it just meant an L-1 would happen prior to page 40 of this game.

@Falcon - sheep me.
@Desp - if you don't wanna read, sheep me.
@KoreanBBQ - I think you look scummy, sheep me.
@Domo - SHEEP!
@MafiaSSK - I have cookies, sheep me.
@Tammy - I have Nachos, sheep me.

Don't make me have to become the active head out of rage and boredom, I'll do it.

This post from Thor was extraordinary, Sure, he can do this as scum but I don't think it's likely. It also shows that they

are

talking about stuff in their QT

Hey thor why don't you talk about what you loved about my opening?

I never said I loved your opening, I said I liked it.
I liked that you came in and attacked and prodded multiple players at a stage of the game people were being lazy and slow in getting things moving.
I also said I liked that Falcon attacked you for it, so don't start sending me any candy hearts anytime soon.

Why would you think this? I might not be right, but I'm getting reads from my interactions with people. My reads are developing all the time and as such I feel like I'm doing the opposite of fail. That's not to say my reads are right, I'm saying I'm happy with my progress. If you're not, tough luck.

I never suggested your reads were good/bad/indifferent so don't get bent out of shape for something I didn't say.
I *did* suggest it was uncool to derail as soon as it appeared some actual momentum shift and vote movement, because looking at that vote count this game desperately needs a serious wagon and a serious counter about twenty posts ago.

I'm not though, because I think I'm actually quite satisfied with my play right now despite the slow starting.

You have barely managed to present reads on a thirty page game while being snarky at others having the same issue. I can't imagine it should surprise you that people have issues with that.

This is a "I liked your post, I never said I loved it"

slight hydra-miscom which is more likely to come from a town hydra over a scum one. (I think Nacho had relayed it as Thor loving Cabd's opening)

Laptop died and I'm posting on a crappy netbook so this is not going to be as detailed as I'd otherwise make it.

At the time when Nati and I first started to feel suspicious of Nacho it was for a bunch of reasons, none of which was really a clincher but together make a constellation that we feel is trouble.

We don't like how he apparently missed a ton of crumbs

We don't like how he seems to be currying favor with players rather than sorting them

We don't like the pitoli vote and especially don't like its timing. It came off like he was trying to deflect attention after we first went after him.

We don't like how he tried to push the non-aggression pact on us.

We don't like the whole tone of the exchange with Brian. The whole tone of that sounded off.

And we found Thor's posts pretty damn close to null content.

And finally, we don't like that when we asked him what he thought about SSK, he said that he was thinking about moving his vote there if Thor agrees. That was off for two reasons: the assumption that we were scumreading, not trying to sort SSK, and because he deferred the decision waiting for a catch up. That's not something he typically does as a hydra.

-I am picking up on less crumbs than I normally would because iPad. I also don't think that's a scumtell for me.

-I am currently considering going back to the Pitoli vote. The timing coincided more with my entrance in thread than your suspicion of me, though.

-Why not? The only advantage it offers me as scum is the towncred. I offered it originally because I thought Cabd would appreciate the gesture, but he apparently didn't get it.

-don't understand where tone was off there.

-I thought Nati was scumreading SSK and I was pretty ready to move forward on that. I'm no better at sorting him than ffery is and so thought the method of approach to him this game was to leave him in Nati hands. You are correct that I usually don't wait to sync up as a hydra. Thor is not my usual hydra partner; my usual hydra partner is someone like you or GiF who can see why I'm thinking what I'm thinking and doesn't diverge on my most basic of reads. There are other hydrate where i take primary control and thus don't differ much from my usual play. Then there are hydrate like Majiffy where our approaches differ in a way where my play needs to change significantly. With him, I tend to exert my personality over his since my reads are superior to his, hence Vegito and ridiculous aggression. With Thor, the biggest thing I want this hydra to give me is a greater understanding of him and for him to understand these pieces of our meta a little more. I don't think playing in the usual way will help me with that, and am much more comfortable with waiting for him than I am not waiting for him.

I kinda like this, Nacho sounds annoyed in general. this can go either way, but I think this was coming from a town mindset of "I don't have a comp, leave me alone" Kinda deal (though prolly not quite like that)

Tammy's a little more Meh-read now. She was God-town earlier, but holding a grudge on an attack that I had made earlier and not understanding where my paranoia of her is coming from is a little weird. The emotions were, and still are town as Smurf though and isn't something that isn't easily replicated as scum even by me and my ability to replicate most, if not all of my major town-tells is something I have alot of pride over.

Serious question; do you think and/or have ever seen Tammy fake emotions as scum? Because Nacho is acting like that's writ in the stars, and you seem flakey on it, so one of you is talking out your backside as far as the read goes. So whassup with this? She is either emotive and thus gawd town, or she is emotive and able to fake it in which case I'd like one of the meta crowd to slap Nacho in the face with a rolled up newspaper.

-snip-

I liked this section of the post as it, yet again shows that they are talking, and not only talking, but scum-hunting withing their QT. this post shows that they are debating reads, and that they are actually trying to find some kind of common ground

Are you going to tunnel Mara now? You did say earlier that you were going to tunnel of hell her.

Are you going to tunnel Mara now? You did say earlier that you were going to tunnel of hell her.

Why are you so keen to get me fighting with mara?

Because usually you become obvtown when you fight with Mara.
I see no reason why you wouldn't engage her if you thought she was scum, which I thought you believed before.

When I ask you if you're going to tunnel Mara, you say that I'm setting you up a 1v1 between you and Mara.
When you are left to your own devices, you call Mara scum pretty fucking quickly.
What?

These three post sequence show Nacho not really understanding Generic, and wanting to understand what he's doing over jumping right away. he wants us to fight because it leads to one (or both) of us obvtowning ourselves which makes things a hellofalot easier for him.

the third was him being confused because he didn't expect generic to be defensive (or something?) on the fight, and didn't really understand where Generic was going with his read on me, or what he was going to do with it.

the third post is genuine confusion

I'm probably going to pass out now. I might not be able to post again until Monday, don't be sad.

The seal wagon is not a bad wagon at all. (Yes, Bert, in hard boiled I realized for sure nacho was scum for unnatural sorting of me, but it was mostly based on something I would have expected town him to pick up on about town me. I'm not so sure muffin is as easy to sort as I am, and it seemed really clear to me that nacho was maneuvering around who was obvtown to the crowd and creating noise that I didn't think he would create.)

(Speaking of Nacho, maraca's crap "gambit" had nothing to do with pushing me to look obvtown and if you are somehow town you're looking at that far too simplistically. Mara betrayed her underhanded motivations when she said she didn't push me as hard as she planned. You don't "plan" to push people for reactions as town, not in the beginning of the game. And not in the fashion as she did, unless you're a complete amateur, so if you and she will admit she has no clue whatsoever that she's doing in this game I'll think of stepping back, but in order to gauge reactions on someone you have to know them...you have to know what to push...you have to know some way of reading them. Anyone with a modicum of understanding of m game wouldn't have needed to do that. And her push was not in any way shape or form one to figure out my alignment, it was purely to piss me off, purely to discredit me. That is 100% evident by the ensuing days, so you comparing it to hard boiled is flawed because the motivation was not the same or even close.)

You're probably scum though so :/

I'm still not voting stuff crust because bar soon amused me.

Not voting muffin.

Surprised Sakura isn't a thing.

Would probs go back to voting BBQ, but meh.

Let's lynch maraca though!!!

Maras scumgames are interesting because they look pretty different from one another and are hard to peg down in most explanations of meta. They differ so strongly I think because Mara plays mostly from the heart as scum (like I've been doing recently), and she wouldn't lead out the planned emotional manipulation effort to discredit you. Cabd could plan it lately, but that's where Hard Boiled comes into play again: it was a poignant as hell experience where Cabd and I were basically wondering what the fuck we did to deserve an attack against of us that held that ridiculous tendency and laughed because we were both good scum players but we realized deep deep down we were completely and supremely fucked. I cannot see Cabd being so idiotic or suicidal to endorse or suggest a plan that went down that horror road ever again. I can see Mara making a weird push on you as town.

this especially made me smile because, this came before the mason claim and he could have very easily left this alone. he didn't, and it also shows that he actually has a understanding of where I come from when I play scum and he could have used this as a reason to scum-read me this game, but he didn't. he calls me town, and tries to get tammy to back off ( who I think is someone he thinks is town) and is trying to keep town from fighting amongst each other which is town as all fuck.

Mara, I think you are wrong about Thor/Nacho for all the following reasons:
1) Nothing about Thor's entrance post was alignment indicative coming from Thor.
2) Thor is capable of making people laugh as town and scum.
3) Nacho is perfectly capable of whiteknighting as scum and making people feel good about themselves. He defended me as scum in a recent Micro we both played. It is non-alignment indicative. Both town and scum defend town and buddy them. You say he may have been cutting down on his later options but he can always change his mind so it doesn't mean anything.
4) I'll comment on 356 since it is referring to me. I didn't find it genuine. I rather thought he was exagerating my ability to read him.
5) So, he said he would read your slot through you as opposed to Cabd. Sure, he would do it as town. He would also do it as scum because he would be

expected

to do it as town. Doesn't mean that he is town.
6) Hydra communications - Desperado addressed this. I think they are using it for malicious purposes here. Thor is troll-voting people who Nacho knows intimately and can't vote without scumclaiming. Like me for example but also plenty of others. Nacho's options in this playerlist are very,

very

limited. I'd love to see Nacho find any reason to attack me for instance.
7) He would be annoyed at not having a comp to pick up on crumbs even if he is scum. It could be genuine frustration or it could be faked.
8) Debating within their QT about Tammy's emotions served a scum purpose here. Nacho is townreading Tammy - LIKE HE IS SUPPOSED TO. Thor is trying to get on your side by agreeing with you.
9) Nacho takes your side, says you are town, and admonishes Generic for pushing on you. Again, scum can do this.
10) He townread you and got Tammy to back off. Again, you are basing it off of him seeing things from your viewpoint. I would have asked Tammy to back off too if I thought it was TvT. I didn't. I was pretty sure it was TvS.

Suspecting you and pushing for your lynch isn't a scumtell. Saying that you are town isn't a towntell. Town can be wrong and scum will townread townies.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

If it helps, its nero who's scumreading fery.
I'm ultimatively townreading her and whenever I see something off from the post, its apparently nati's post so I quietly withdraw my suspicion time to time.

This is comforting.

The lack of interactions of F16 with me and he still having me as null is scaring me.

I have tried to interact with you quite a few times. I can't interact with everyone at once. This being a large game does affect my reads. I have 5 solid townreads. If this was a Micro, I would have solved the game by now through POE or at least narrowed down scum to 2/3. I am concerned about you based on ffery's points and your general demeanor like the post I quoted which seems like posturing - because it doesn't make any sense. YOU have me as null and hadn't initiated any interactions with me where as I have. I asked you about your reads and your thoughts on the game state whenever I could catch you out of V/LA. You seem very much like an elusive, mysterious person who wants to be chased just for the lolz.

Wait a moment. So the top two wagons other than yourself are your only concrete scumreads, yet you have not voted for either of them. Both of their wagons are not anything new. They have been here for quite some time, ever since I entered this game days ago.

Why wait until now to list two scumreads, both of them being at the top of the voting chart aside from you? That seems awfully convenient.

I wasn't hardcore scumreading Casso until Thor's vote on me. StuffedCrust, my read has been building for a while. I haven't voted because I am not generally quick with my votes and take time to consider all options. Doesn't your experience with me match up with that?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What do you want to talk about Sakura?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Bad timing. I gotta go but I'll be back in 2-3 hours to respond. If are online then, that is cool as well.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Bert, what do you think about lynching Casso instead?

I mulled over it and I am not sure StuffedCrust is scum. I think they are a red herring that scum Thor is setting up for fools who think Thor's scum game is as simple as avoiding a wagon on his buddy. Thor/Nacho are prime targets for investigations and if they do get investigated guilty and lynched, people will be looking at associative tells. I think Stuffed is a mislynch that Thor is trying to set up in the event that their hydra doesn't make it to endgame, and depending on PR actions, they likely won't.

If Stuffed is scum, Casso is likely town.

Sakura, I can't "easily" do meta on you. I have limited pockets on time to spend on this game and a meta-dive takes anywhere between 1-5 hours depending on the skill of the player involved and my experience with them.

You say you have no idea how to read me. Are you implying that you don't attempt to read players that you haven't played with? Because even you don't have a meta baseline, I think it is possible to evaluate a player's behavior in game.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'd like to see you elaborate. Bonus points if you point out something that I haven't addressed or responded to so far.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was voting them and then I saw stuff like this:

I've got so much to catch up on. I dunno if I'm gonna really have any time until after christmas, this site malarky has really made it tough to keep involved. I feel like I'm voting blind. Can some tl;dr a case on casso? That's nacho and thor, right?

I'm not so sure I want to be killing off two strong players so early unless the case is compelling.

This would be a dream mislynch for scum if they're town.

Falcon you don't have the reputation that Casso's heads have (yet), so... or at least DOMO doesn't know you probably, hence the "dream mislynch" comment

that's why DOMO felt so weird initially, posts like this

You are saying DOMO's comment persuaded you to unvote Casso?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Thor, what are your reads on everyone in the game?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am just going to say it plainly. You are wrong about me Bert. I am town. Placing your vote on any player is more productive and more likely to hit scum than placing your vote on me. I am town as fuck here. Anyone that has played with me will tell you so. I am not completely sure who is scum at this point and I am still trying to figure it out while waiting for Sakura and Thor to post. All I know is that I am town and lynching me will lead to a mislynch. It will set us back a town player. It will prevent me from providing analysis that could POE the scum to death. It will prevent me doing deep meta-dives into each player in the game and helping town win. Don't vote me. Vote somebody else. Preferable someone absolutely useless who likely won't win the game for town even if they are alive. I have posted a ton of analysis and reads. I have initiated productive discussion with several players and attempted to sort them through various means. I have looked through people's past games to see recurring patterns. I have backtracked on my reads and revised and reconsidered at every point. I had unvoted MC even before they claimed Mason. I am a productive and helpful member of the town and I strongly believe that leaving me alive will exponentially increase our chances of victory. I am not scum. It is as simple as that. Don't lynch me D1 based off of absolutely nothing. Work with me to take the scum down.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

But falcon, lynching a lurker/useless one gives us little to no info to work off

The net info will be more with a lurker lynch because you'll have me providing a massive amount of content. So, you lynch me and I flip town. Then what? The lurkers aren't going to give you a massive amount of helpful content. They are not going to win the game for us.

Sakura's recent posts have pinged to me. What are your thoughts about her latest content and her interactions (mostly with Geists) earlier today?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Thor, can you explain your townreads on Generic and Llamarble. Why is Nacho against a Llamarble lynch?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Who have you been trying to garner support for?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, do you think Sakura's smugness is the same type of smugness she displayed in that Newbie game regarding Cabd where he was lynched and she insisted that he was town?

Thor, Llamarble is Norlkaz.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I've skimmed the past 15 pages but I'm going back to read in detail.

F-16 3247:

I have no control of Thors actions. My read on you hasn't been upgraded to a strong townread until my most recent posts, so I haven't walled like crazy about it yet. I never told him to take the lead, but he did. Meanwhile... I have strong townreads on you and Stuffed Crust. I would like a better lynch so that neither of these things go through. Sheep me or find something better, please.

So, you are convinced now that Sakura is town and I am leaning that way as well. What's the Nacho reads-list looking like at this point?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You're reminding me of Micro 189 where you just tunneled a scumread near deadline as scum and were vague about your other opinions's strengths

You looked in that game too much at the non-broader picture

DOMO, Muffin, Norklaz, SSK.
You'll also notice that the situations between this and chosen are pretty fucking dramatic. Here, I'm saving the hell out of two players who are a threat to me and trying to kynch someone with a damn good chance of being scum. There, I tunneled on players and didn't comment in anyone else in order to avoid having to comment on NS the scummy as fuck mentee.

You also saved Equinox in Yabbaguy's C9++ game (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... =applejack) which I reviewed a while back. As it happens, you were scum, and your buddy McStab had a huge fight with Equinox. While he seemed to be losing initially, he bounced back, convinced a few people and turned the wagon on her. The town was very divided with Llamafluff and a few others supporting Equinox strongly while Inte and Bitmap staunchly supported McStab. The town was very divided and tensions were running high. At that point, you swooped in to save Equinox by pushing a bipartisan lynch on Defender (a lurker) and both camps were able to settle on a lynch. There were plenty of scum benefits there (you buddied with Equinox - who would be a threat to you, you got attention away from McStab without even looking like it, you were able to push a lynch approved by the major town players like Llamafluff). Looking at this situation, I see so many parallels. You come in to derail lynches on both Stuffed and me, you push a lynch on a lurkish Sakura, you try to get both Stuffed and I on your side while not doing anything controversial that might set alarm bells off for Tammy/ffery. I like that you eventually backtracked on Sakura though and I am reconsidering based on that. You never actually backtracked on defender in that game.

---

I am feeling slightly better about Casso though so they are back in my to be sorted pile. Nacho can be obvtown when he leads multiple scum lynches.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

With this being very likely town you mara I want to listen to you on these reads... I just am seeing what's in front of me and f16 has only started to look a bit dodgy while under pressure, which I have seen dies hand from him as town in Big brother (and was exploited by me when I discovered this). Meanwhile casso as an entity trouble me, even though I can see the argument you give for the nacho posts.

My vote is wasted where it is for today.

unvote

Will give it some thought. Casso still looks the best option of the three main wagons but mara seems confident on the read.

nteresting how you sat on wanting to call me scum all game and in your blind panic jump on absolutely nothing f16.

Please show where I'm posturing for voting you. I see me actually defending you with a strong example from big brother hat this awful posting now shows you are town and then speculate with mara over NACHO whom I believe she hydras with.

Anymore bullshit you have you want to throw, cos this is the only time in all my posting you have tried to pin scum on me, and it's a total misrep.

P.s. F16, you are on my radar after that shot you pulled on me, everything else about your play was town f16 from big brother but the misrep just to pin a scum read on me is a low blow and not town play at all.

Okay, wow. Epic fail on my part. For whatever reason I read and interpreted your post as you saying that you think I am town but that Mara seemed confident in her read on me implying that you would eventually sheep Mara's read. I only saw on a re-read that you were talking about Casso.

With that said, I am interested by your reaction, Generic. Why do you automatically assume that I am scum misrepping you as opposed to town misinterpreting what you were saying? After all, you did the same with Pieguyn and you know that town can do it accidentally as well. What is the scum motivation to attack you out of the blue based on a fabricated misrep that could easily be pointed out to be wrong?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Has this game beat xenoblade yet for d1 content?

I'm not feeling so great about an F-16 lynch.

I was thinking of defaulting back to varsoon but that wagon looks filthy.

What made you change your mind? You initially joined my wagon based on Mara's case looking convincing. I find it problematic because the case itself really wasn't any good. I'm not just saying it because the conclusion is wrong or that it was against me (I've seen cases on town look very convincing). Mara's case essentially boiled down to how I was interacting with her slot and scumreading them. I pointed out why it was inaccurate in my graph which you decided to merely laugh at as you pushed the wagon. After the wagon on me got derailed, you move your vote as well saying you don't feel good about my lynch. I don't care that you frequently change your mind. I do find it scummy that your change of mind corelates with the momentum of a wagon very strongly. I want specifics in why you felt so good about my lynch earlier and now you don't. What pieces of evidence convinced you to change your read and how did it progress upward or downward as you read through the thread.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

F-16, I think we need to give him more time. I'm happy with mara, and believe she is sincere in her read on F-16, but F-16 seems like another strong asset when town and would be as much a fistpump mislynch for scum as nacho/thor, so there's caution.

If this is your reason, it would be just as applicable when you initially sheeped Mara and laughed at my graph, would it not? What changed?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Sakura, I feel rejected. You don't ask a guy out and then forget all about it in the middle of our date! Anyways, you haven't gotten back to me on what about my play bugged you that was original and not addressed before.

Also, I know you sometimes tend to self-vote or ask for your lynch as both town and scum. Can you provide me with links to games in which you did this? As many of each would do. 5-6 of each would be a pretty good sample.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ 3598: Mara, I haven't worked with you because you seemed very unapproachable. You barely engaged me and simply re-posted your case for the lurkers (which you didn't update after my responses). So, I reacted instinctively by trying to work with others as opposed to you. If you do want to work with me or actually try to sort me, I am more than happy to engage you so we can stop this pointless distraction and lynch scum. The "

but that is not what you said before

" arguments aren't things I can address for you because the statements themselves are accurate. But it isn't scummy to change my viewpoint.

---

wtf is up with the activity this game and why are we wagoning Sak?

Because apparently "she's scum" is a good reason to lynch someone.

If you flip town I'll be all over it like white on rice.

Are you townreading Sakura and why?

---

I'm thinking she's town. We are at a point of the day where Sakura pulled something equivalent to the blacklist tell, which is strictly a no lynching business.

What is a blacklist tell and how did Sakura do it? Is it related to the quitting?

Or maybe one of DOMO/SAD? That group looks more likely to have scum in it than it did before.

I agree. I could go with BRO as well. MafiaSSK would be the fourth choice.

---

Nacho's explanation for why I am town looks very town, particularly the part about making sure Mara understands it. His dismantling of Sakura wagon feels town as well - I agree with 3684 about the Nacho-read.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

TOWN ANGELS:
Tammy
Geists
Maraca
Falcon
Bert
Goodmorning
Sakura Hana

ANGELS IN WAITING:
Generic
Stuffed Crust
Pieguy
KoreanBBQ
Cephrir
Desperado

CAST DOWN FROM HEAVEN:
BRO
Norlkaz
SSK
SAD
DOMO
MuffinMan

This is great. I was thinking somewhat similarly but with a few modifications.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can provide links were i self-vote as scum, i cant remember where I asked to be lynched or AtE'd as I dont remember any of those =/
Glad if you can provide them tho

Yeah, providing them would be awesome.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Players of concern are Bro, zmuffin, domo and to a lesser extent Ceph and Sakura. I'm not totally buying in to the blacklist tell variant.

I have no idea how to read SAD or llamarble at this point.

I wouldn't mind going with DOMO or BRO either. I still like the StuffedCrust wagon. I feel that is mostly town at the moment combined with the fact that it didn't go through earlier. The thing that makes me hesitate is Nacho's certainty that SC is town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Sakura Hana
Norlkaz
Ser Arthur Dayne
BROseidon
MafiaSSK/Bert

these are my null's in the order of towniest --> scummiest

I bought the "blacklist tell" that Nacho and Bert brought up and I don't think that Sakura would go so far as to say that she is quitting mafia while complaining about her lynch. I lean town on her. However, one thing that bothered me was her post in response to Bert:

I've never seen her go 'I quit' and then change her signature as well

:/

That's just *shrug*

That's low if it's scum, and I don't see her going to these depths

Except i thought i said im quitting Mafia because it's not fun for me anymore?

This seemed as though she is trying to subtly backtrack on the blacklist tell because she is scum and feels guilty that people have used a blacklist tell to get off her wagon and spare her today. It could be nothing and I am not positive so I want to check the extent to which she will go as scum in order to avoid a lynch by looking through her other games. Probably won't happen today though so it is on the to-do list for tomorrow. Do you have any previous experiences with Sakura as scum self-voting/using ATE?

The rest of these players are in my YET TO BE SORTED pile. I think it is possible one or more of them are scum.

Norlkaz - Possibly scum due to the low amount of content. Llamarble as town is very active and very sharp with his reads so the low activity is concerning.

Ser Arthur Dayne - I don't like his defense of SSK based purely on the basis of SSK having low content and that his scum flip won't give us many associatives. It is far more important to actually lynch scum - the associatives will work themselves out. I am not sure if this is scum-motivated though.

BROseidon - He doesn't really seem to be in the game. He voted you, then voted me in quick succession. I find the fickleness scummy and he isn't engaged with the game. But I re-read through another of his towngames which I had read previously and he got mislynched for not being engaged there.

MafiaSSK - Claimed doc so we are not lynching him today.

Bert - I think he is town. The biggest tell I noticed was his buildup of suspicion on Geists and subsequent vote. His vote on me also looked town-motivated. He initially holds back his suspicion of me (I can tell because he was working to undermine DOMO's towntell on me without saying that he thought I was scummy), and once the repressed suspicion builds up and breaks the surface, he votes me. It matches up with Bert as town pretty well. Bert is generally paranoid of players he can't read, waffles hard, sometimes keeps his suspicions to himself, and if a player he thinks is fairly good gets wagoned or if he is paranoid, he hops right on. It is recurring trend in his towngames. Newbie 1415 and Newbie 1436 are examples of his town paranoia.

I assume your scumread is Desperado:

Desperado - I initially read him as town based on how he picked up on things to attack me that make sense from his POV very well. For instance, in Big Brother: HoH Mafia, I spent a ton of time accusing him of being scum because he had an early townread on another player. It made sense for him to attack me based on that. When I pointed out a few counter-examples, he quickly dropped it and went after SC instead and it felt very genuine. My townread is stronger now since he is picking up on a lot of things that I thought too - like his late push on DOMO, and his push on Sakura for retracting her scumread on Casso very easily.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

TOWN++

:
1) Tammy
2) Geists
3) Desperado
4) Pieguyn
5) Bert
6) GoodMorning
7) MC Maraca

POSSIBLY TOWN

8) Sakura Hana - Pending meta-dive
9) MafiaSSK - I thought his analysis of his wagon looked town. If town, he'll probably be nk'd soon anyways based on doc claim
10) Casso the King of Seals - Pending Nacho showing off his awesomeness by wrecking the scum
11) KoreanBBQ - Mostly gut. Some paranoia of GIF for his very good scumgame
12) zMuffinMan - Same as KBBQ
13) Generic - Back to thinking he could be town but not sure

YET TO BE SORTED

:
14) BROseidon
15) Norlkaz
16) Cephrir
17) Ser Arthur Dayne
18) DOMO
19) Stuffed Crust

I am pretty sure there are no scum in the top group. There could be 1, maybe 2 scum in my possibly town pile. The rest I think are in the bottom pile.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Explain Pie

You are kidding, right?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Tammy, what do you think about my reads? Where do yours differ?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Players of concern are Bro, zmuffin, domo and to a lesser extent Ceph and Sakura. I'm not totally buying in to the blacklist tell variant.

I have no idea how to read SAD or llamarble at this point.

I wouldn't mind going with DOMO or BRO either. I still like the StuffedCrust wagon. I feel that is mostly town at the moment combined with the fact that it didn't go through earlier. The thing that makes me hesitate is Nacho's certainty that SC is town.

If Mac had done something more than drunkpost after he got the reprieve I'd probably feel better about him. But he basically did another fade after the governor signed his pardon, so to speak.

I agree with this and I am going to go with Stuffed Crust.

VOTE: Stuffed Crust

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Not role fishing, just mocking the fact you pushed that one read as a form of answering my question. Glad you are do proud of such a retarded way of reading someone, your actions tell me all I need to know about you right now.

Yup you're scum. You didn't stop and think "shit maybe he did get some night info", you're persisting with "this is retarded".

And in the process you're showing me that it isn't retarded.

My initial thoughts were that you were a PR who learned that Giests was town last night and then made up reasons for why they are town especially with your talk about role fishing. I was about to try and diffuse the situation but then I saw this post. Why claim so easily?

Also, can you answer my questions to you from D1?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

How is Tammy not a "high-profile" player? She was the one I was most afraid of losing and was hoping SSK would have the sense to protect.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

DOMO, why choose Geists to target with your role?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, responses to 3706, 3708, and 3892 would be cool.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Arthur, I buy that you wouldn't have liked to kill Tammy but it is still possible that your buddies wanted to kill her despite your objections. I am taking it as null.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, continue pushing you?

So you misrep me, vote for me because I didn't respond to your questioning of me immediately, you continue to change the arguement to point how I'm not acting town to you and then you cry that I won't stop defending myself and tearing your bullshit apart?

Don't kick the beast then, I am borderline autistic and recently discovered my family were being exposed to carbon monoxide poisoning. I warned you earlier in his exchange I was in the mood to tear a moron a new arsehole, jjust because you chose to be that moron suits me fine.

This is another post I am taking to be a "near-blacklist" tell and reading Generic as town. Also, meta matches up more closely with Wingate than BB:HoH.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I find DOMO's push townish but I'll elaborate after we have more info.

DOMO, Generic's arguments with you are very unlikely to come from scum and the way he is going about it seems very natural and genuinely frustrated. I am leaning towards both of you being town. I think you should reconsider.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What are your modifications?

Town+:
1) Geists
2) Bert
3) Pieguyn
4) MC
5) GoodMorning
6) Generic

Town in waiting:
7) Desperado (Tammy's read made me paranoid so I'll wait till I meta-dive him more fully)
8) Sakura (again meta-dive)
9) DOMO (need to meta-dive to be sure I am seeing town)
---
10) Casso (lead a scum-lynch please)
11) SSK (die at night please)
---
12) KoreanBBQ (not as sure after Stuffed's townflip)
13) zMuffinman (was gut-town but considering other townreads, I am not sure)

Leftovers:
14) BRO
15) Norlkaz
16) Cephrir
17) Arthur

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Cephrir, indeed I am posting reads frequently. You are at the top of my scumlist at the moment. Thoughts?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Cephrir, a few questions:
1) Explain your reversal of read on me. Everything you quoted in your catch up post seemed like you found it scummy.
2) Are you serious about the posts of Sakura that you quoted saying that you agreed why she was run up?

As for your 4045, I thought you were probably scum through POE but I wasn't hardcore scumreading you until your post about the frequency of my readslists. It smacks of scum painting null things as scummy. It was the final straw in a list of catchups I didn't like.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Desperado, how have your reads changed since the point you mentioned SC, Geists, Maraca, DOMO, and Dayne as your suspects? What are your reads on DOMO and Geists now? Do you have any other strong reads?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

And for the record, there's an internal fight going on about f16 and casso in our Skype area. Cabd (me, hi) says f16 town after last few irl days of day 1. Mara thinks opposite. flip respectively for nachothor.

Awesome. Looks like we can catch scum together after all. What are your thoughts about the players in my leftovers pile?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Based on the gunsmith claim, I am more suspicious of MafiaSSK. I think a mafia doc fits the setup well. I don't discount the possibility of him being a town doc and someone else being a mafia doc so I am somewhat ambivalent. I am thinking if there is a protective town PR, they should claim so that mafiassk can be lynched. Not sure if that is the optimal move yet so I'd rather have more discussion about this.

Desperado, can you explain your scumread on Giests and your townread on BRO? I have the opposite feeling about Geists and BRO isn't one of my townreads.

Arthur, can you explain your townread on me? You seemed fairly sure I was scum before but now you have me as one of the least scummy. Also, I'd like to know the reasons for your scumreads on Desperado and Geists. Elaboration on your Bert scumread beyond Nero's case would help as well (assuming that is why you voted him). I don't have scumreads on any of those players.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Arthur, you agreed with me that a Tammy nk shouldn't necessarily make you town but you townread me based on it, why? Wouldn't the same reasoning apply to me?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Arthur, you agreed with me that a Tammy nk shouldn't necessarily make you town but you townread me based on it, why? Wouldn't the same reasoning apply to me?

Your scum-partners could agree better with you when you say "I don't want to kill Tammy because she's townreading me and we're bouncing off ideas off each other and I feel I can influence her when we need" rather than were I to say "Hi I don't want to kill Tammy because I'm enjoying playing with her".

Cmon bro. Too ez.

Okay, I like that your read reversal is internally consistent. It seems like you re-evaluated your reads based on the nk. 3930 matches up with that theory.

Cephrir, I'd like a response to my questions in 4101.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am leaning towards SSK being scum doc because it fits in so well but I think the more prudent move is to wait so that DOMO can get in more investigations.

Desperado, I agree that Pie, Generic, and Bert are likely town. I am not entirely sure about BRO. I am not convinced that a misunderstanding of the gamestate is more likely to come from town.

ffery, I am really looking up to you to step up and the lead. I've been thinking about what Lllamarble said: "

In a game this large I believe it is difficult to lynch scum without a couple of town leaders

" and I remembered Hunterx mafia where we lynched scum on our consecutive days mostly because there always was someone leading the game. For instance, the Gammagooey wagon happened D1 because Vi pushed through the lynch despite a lot of distractions. Without someone leading the game, the influence of the mafia will be strong and I feel it unlikely we are actually going to lynch scum because most likely only town wagons will go through with scum opposing the scum wagons. You being a competent player and probably as close to conf-town as we have right now are our best shot at getting a scum lynch and I'll happily vote with you if I find your reasons convincing. Hoping to hear Nat's thoughts as well since his posting has faded away for a while now. Who do you feel most confident about being scum and why? I am not positive about anyone being scum, even Cephrir. I am starting to doubt that my leftovers pile actually contains the majority of scum. I am getting cold feet about Arthur being scum as well.

DOMO, I was suspicious of you at that time I asked for your reasoning on Geists and wanted to delve into your thought process so I hopefully understand your motivations better. I didn't think it very unlikely for scum to breadcrumb PRs and your breadcrumb wasn't exactly flawlessly executed. This is an interesting interpretation and it is true that I don't feel great about your choice of investigation. I think you should have checked someone less readable - like Casso or Muffin for instance.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Arthur, you agreed with me that a Tammy nk shouldn't necessarily make you town but you townread me based on it, why? Wouldn't the same reasoning apply to me?

Your scum-partners could agree better with you when you say "I don't want to kill Tammy because she's townreading me and we're bouncing off ideas off each other and I feel I can influence her when we need" rather than were I to say "Hi I don't want to kill Tammy because I'm enjoying playing with her".

Cmon bro. Too ez.

Okay, I like that your read reversal is internally consistent. It seems like you re-evaluated your reads based on the nk. 3930 matches up with that theory.

Cephrir, I'd like a response to my questions in 4101.

Hi, you seem like a reasonable fellow in this town of crazies please tell me you see where I'm coming from with Ceph and that I'm not just seeing everything he does as scum and it's an ad hom attack.

I am not the best person to tell you that since I am scumreading Cephrir based on his posts about me which is hardly unbiased. I'll re-evaluate his interaction with other people and go through his other games when I find time. I read through your argument with him and I didn't find anything alignment indicative. I can see "misreps" coming from both town and scum. I had a huge argument with Bulbazak in Micro 252 where I thought he was scum because of perceived misreps on his part but when I took a step back and objectively analyzed his posts, I realized he was town. Cephrir's play reminded me of Bulbazak's a lot in that he tends to attack nearly everything his scumreads do so a similar strategy like not looking into what he said about me in particular might help figure out his alignment. Let's try this: you go through Cephrir's posts about me and offer your opinions. I'll go through his posts about you and offer mine.

Also, what is your read on Desperado? In 4113, you talk about how you are going to prove him to be a moron at endgame implying you think he is town. Has your read changed since D1 and when you posted your tiers? What other reads of yours were influenced by the nightkill?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

F-16 explain Bert town.

I explained in posts 3057, and 3788. I played quite a few games with Bert.
Newbie 1415 - Both town
Micro 247 - Me scum, Bert town
Micro 254 - Me town, Bert scum
Newbie 1429 - Both scum

I also read through another game of his in real time and figured out that he was town (Newbie 1436). ffery also has a lot of meta-experience with Bert so syncing on Bert-town is re-assuring.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, I know I need to roll up my sleeves and choose a direction. I haven't been good at leading in recent games - at least not with a good target in hand.

What I really want to do is some PoE with strong town reads. But, I feel like my strong town reads aren't feeling any more strongly about their scumreads/PoE than I am.

It's going to wait a day or so.

Here's where I am at:

Spoiler: Reads

Town+:

1) Geists
2) DOMO
3) MC
4) GoodMorning
5) Bert
6) Generic
7) Pieguyn

I think we agree that it is highly unlikely that the first 4 are scum based on roles and night actions. I am confident in Generic, Bert, and Pie. You seem to agree about Bert and still seem to be sorting Pie. I've played with Generic before and his game here is a far cry from his play in BB:HoH mafia. Do you have experience playing with him?

Everybody else:

8) Desperado (Tammy's read made me paranoid so I'll wait till I meta-dive him more fully)
9) Sakura - (Pending meta-dive) What are your updated thoughts about Sakura?
10) Casso
11) SSK (I am thinking scum)
12) KoreanBBQ
13) zMuffinman
14) BRO
15) Norlkaz
16) Cephrir
17) Arthur - Still trying to sort him but some posts gave me townvibes[/quote]

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Cephrir, a few questions:
1) Explain your reversal of read on me. Everything you quoted in your catch up post seemed like you found it scummy.
2) Are you serious about the posts of Sakura that you quoted saying that you agreed why she was run up?

OK, thought I already answered these.

1) It never reversed. I did quote a few things I found scummy, but still wasn't scumreading you.
2) Mostly, I guess.

Nearly all of your catch-up posts about me seemed to indicate that you found my posts scummy. Your townread doesn't make sense based on your catchups.

You also seem to have pre-conceived positions about what the ideal gamestate is and a lot of things that you say about other players are generally compliments when they meet this ideal or disagreement when they don't meet it. For instance, some of the things that were concerning.

149: First instance of voting StuffedCrust (it is the wagon you push all the way to the end of D1)

451: Says that scumreading you is a towntell. Why? You weren't involved in the game, were inactive and lurkish. Certainly you are a good target for the scum to suspect and probably push a lynch on. Town are potentially also likely to give you slack for it and not lynch you just for being disengaged.

954: You claim that GoodMorning's posts suck and that your "eyes glaze over" everytime you read a Generic post. I can't relate to this. You later says the same thing about my posts. An interesting observation is that you don't explain why GoodMorning's posts suck or why you liked Brian's quote-stripe. This matches up with your read on me where you don't explain much at all. I will check through your other games to see if it is a hallmark of your town or scum meta. Help from those who played with Cephrir before (Nacho, ffery, Cabd, BRO, and others) will be appreciated.

957: Dislikes MafiaSSK's entrance into the game and agrees conditionally with DOMO saying that you are "a fan" of DOMO snap-voting on that.

960: ...What? (This might become important later on a meta-basis).

961: Agrees with my objection to Pie's GoodMorning read. Also tells Pie "

It's not a stats course? THAT'S the line you're going with? xD

"
There are several other interestingly worded quotes in this post and is worth checking out:
1. "

Why the hell are you townreading me again?

"
2. "

And then you let this go immediately? Huh?

"
3. "

Could it be? DO I actually like a Thor post? Call that rapture guy, I think the world is ending.

"

969: "eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee" in response to MafiaSSK possibly expressing dislike of his post.

1132: Agrees with DOMO's position about StuffedCrust (you had previously suspected Stuffed Crust so it falls into my pre-formed positions argument)

1147: "

Whaddaya know, SSK is posturing to suspect me later.

" - Preformed position: SSK is scum.

1529: Why is everyone voting this
I just
Don't
Understand (This is said with regards to DOMO)

1571: Gurl lookit dat 180

---

The most striking thing I found from your posts is that you generally seem to have a pre-formed position in your mind. Whenever someone agrees with that position, you encourage and cheerlead them. Whenever someone disagrees, you critisize them for it. I'll point out several examples.

Firstly, you believe that you are scummy as shown in post 451 and you later townread people who are scumreading you. I find your townread on Geists for scumreading you very comfortable and completely lacking doubt - you are too self-assured about their scumread.

Secondly, you don't like/scumreads MafiaSSK as evidenced in post 957. Your further posts towards MafiaSSK are critical such as the "

eeeeeee

" in post 969. I am not exactly sure what the "

eeeeeee

" is supposed to accomplish from a town POV but it seems as though it is a declaration of your position. These declarations show up in many other ways such as the rhetorical "

...What?

" in post 960. I am going to term these sort of things "

Rhetorical expressions of surprise.

" It is basically when you take a position and wonder why everybody doesn't share that opinion. Other examples include showing up at random times and asking why certain things are hapenning. For instance "why are we lynching X" when a quick glance at the previous few pages should give the questioner all he needs. It is more pronounced when the questioner doesn't actually want to know the answer but wants to take a position that lynching X is absurd and so wants to pretend that everyone lynching X is crazy/scummy.

Thirdly, your position on Stuffed Crust is that they are scum and you therefore agrees everytime someone pushes on them with examples being 1132.

Fourthly, the position on me. 2744, you say that my post rubs you the wrong way. 3695, it again seems like you scumread me. You mention that when you read my posts you like them but it is rare. I am assuming it means that it is only the rare post that gives you a townread which doesn't make sense with your final position. 4021, when you give a plus sign to Thor's terribad vote on me is another example. My first concern is your pre-formed position that votes on me are good and thumbs-upping everyone who does it regardless of how terrible their reasoning is. My second concern is that this position makes no sense with your apparent "townread" on me. Your motivations and thought processes are unclear. 4289 is another example.

Fifth, your position on Pie is mostly one of random criticism of his posts which I can't really relate with.

I also wonder why you have never taken a step back and reconsidered things after championing the SC lynch D1. All you did was show up from time to time saying that SC ought to be lynched. They finally were lynched. They flipped town. Now, you pop up from time to time talking about how Arthur needs to be lynched. 4379 is deeply troubling. You had a similar stance toward SC - you couldn't wait to see them lynched. Each day, all you do is try to get someone lynched. There is no effort at scumhunting or sorting people. You barely ask any questions. You are merely quoting things you don't like with nonsensical phrases like "yuck," "eww," "eeeee" etc which does jacksquat to help me understand your thought process. I don't see any effort from you to actually find scum as opposed to just lynching someone. Your case on Arthur is weak. It is not the kind of stuff that yields scum lynches.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

This is Nati's scumpile. I'm putting some of my own thoughts around it.

Pieguyn - Nati has a scumread. I have a mixed read. There was one post in his back and forth with me that I really liked, and I backed off on that basis. But there is a sentence in another post I keep coming back to because it feels fucking fake.

ffery what the fuck you better not be scum

BBQ - I keep thinking about Cabd pushing through a TiP day 1 lynch in the Xenologue game, and getting away with such a bad "misread". GiF's confidence in reading Varsoon is pretty high. But, his offering to be the lynch instead (at a moment when I was seriously considering doing the same) and his characterization of the lynch as a Christmas Miracle when we lynched a town PR just feels like something that scum wouldn't do. Nati found his SSK lynch post at the start of day 2 very troubling.

I don't take offers of self-lynched seriously and I doubt anyone would lynch someone just because they offered to be lynched which makes it a fine gambit for scum. I am null on KBBQ.

Sakura Hana - the blacklist tell isn't as convincing as all that, the more we think about it, and there are too damn many players in our town pile.

Can you link those scumgames where Sakura gave up and self-voted? I think I might be able to do a compare and contrast with her towngames to see if there are underlying motivations that can be spotted.

Desperado - Nati's gut read, lack of presence. I feel like he's not putting a lot of effort into pushing his reads, and not doing much to organize town, which I associate with town-Desp. Nati has had good luck spotting scum-Desp lately

It is true that town-Desp makes his presence felt more strongly. I am not sure if this is related to his meta-change and it being a large game but I get a different vibe from his posting than I do from the game I modded or past games with him.

I'm finding it really difficult to move these four out of my nullpile and not also move Norlkaz and zmuffin. But, Norlkaz is an almost complete unknown, and if zmuffin will finish those ISOs and post some reads I'll have something solid to base a read on.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Who did you protect last night?

You. Because you are an important asset to town.

This doesn't make sense given your posts about Geists:

I don't think geists should be given the trust as being such an official town leader. Natirasha is very reactive, and that's really not good when deciding on a very rushed or heated lynch.

So the best that both ffery and you can come up with is gut? Super weak, Nat.

Nat hasn't posted much on geists in this game. As such, I have no real read on them. I don't understand ffery and ffery doesn't understand me.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I read through Nacho's reads list in the Perpetual MYLO game and it doesn't seem similar to those reads-lists at all. Nacho's reads morph to fit what is generally accepted to the town. For instance the Bert townread after being questioned on why Bert is an Angel in waiting. The Pieguyn townread after it becomes apparent that he won't be lynched considering I showed in detail that he is playing to his town meta. I also strongly disagree with the Cephrir townread.

Top scumreads in order:
Cephrir
MafiaSSK
Casso

VOTE: Cephrir

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Why is that scummy or anything but normal?

It is the extreme nature of throughout your posts that I found scummy. You agree with

everything

that matches your position with no paranoia or backtracking or constantly changing reads. I find it more likely that scum will stick to a position and champion everything that agrees with that position.

Also, if you are town and think you are playing badly, then step it up. If you don't have much of a case on Arthur, why are you pushing so vehemently for his lynch? Your push is disproportionate to the strength of your case.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I would call f16 super town too if his read on me didn't look fabricated.

It isn't. I have actually read through one of your scumgames (Newbie 1429) where Bert replaced you and I replaced Beginner. From what I recall, your predecessor was obvscum but you turned the slot around fooling even very good players like Nacho and ffery and by the time you were finished with it, everyone was convinced that the slot was town. Bert and I managed to push through a win in LYLO both based on our predecessor's play. This corroborates with other scary things that I hear about your scumgames so I am holding off on taking a definitive stance on you until I gather more information about you. I may probably even end up trying to read Nero if he turns out to be easier to read.

@ Pieguyn, I haven't forgotten about your post. I'll come to that soon.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am still in the process of doing a meta-dive on Cephrir.

Geists, what are your thought about Cephrir?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I haven't come to you yet. I can't make an effort to meta-dive everyone at once. For now, all I have is your good scumgame to worry about. I'll refine the read when I get to you after I finish refining other reads.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was torn about SSK. On one hand, even if he were scum, I felt that it would allow DOMO to give us one more perhaps crucial investigation. But at the rate this is going, they'll probably kill him anyways and claim that SSK was roleblocked or whatever because it doesn't really seem like anyone is buying his claim. I am leaning towards just lynching SSK today. Will think about it.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am incredibly hungover and not able to rework that read right now, but Cephrir snowed the living hell out of me in uPick, and it turns out the major reason I was reading Cephrir as town here (namely, his reaction to me here) was completely wrong and completely faked.

So, what is your read on him now? Do you have any meta-based pointers?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Arthur, why is Cephrir (sadly) town? I am also not seeing what you are seeing with regards to Bert.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I get the suspicion on Casso. I still think SSK is the better lynch for today. He is a sure bet. Casso may potentially be town. There will always be tomorrow. As it is, I want to lynch someone who is highly likely to be scum and make associative tells based off of the flip as opposed to theorize that SSK is being too obvious and that he is protecting a buddy and potentially mistakenly lynch a townie. Take the sure thing first. Come back to the rest later.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Oh, and Pie I haven't forgotten your question. I am just not confident enough about Arthur-town at this point to defend him. I want him to explain a few things as well and see how it goes.

What is your read on Cephrir? Can you explain it?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Pie, that's not a ringing endorsement from you.

I don't trust you altogether, much like you KBBQ will post something very town and then go the other way. His current defence on casso now he is lead wagon is a concern.

In fact, several of you have now come out in defence of casso, I have thrown it out there but give me the best alternative. I don't want a town casso lynched but this feels like a scum hydra. But that is not a certainty read because it relies on others being scum...

Fuck this game, I will wait got responses from casso/KBBQ/pie/anyone else defending casso right now.

In fact, f16, I want you to talk to me here, give me what you are seeing from the game state at this moment in time, I want guidance and you have yet to have input with me.

I am not seeing any progression of gamestate and feel somewhat tuned out at the moment. I have a strong scumread on SSK and am fairly certain he is scum. I have concerns about Casso as well that I put forth. Nacho has been addressing the suspicion on him but I don't see Nacho doing what Nacho does as town: wreck scumteams. He is just not as engaged in scumhunting. I don't find his posts to be similar to the Perpetual Mylo game that Geists linked earlier. But it is not as obvious to me that they are scum as it is SSK. Plus, I'll spend several sleepless nights if I help lynch a Nacho hydra and he flips town after he spent a ton of effort getting MC and I to stop tunneling and get the game back on track. So, what if he is scum? He'll still be here tomorrow as will all of us other than DOMO. We can persue it then. I see no reason to let SSK live another day based off of speculation that he may be protecting a buddy. I get DOMO's point that Casso could be a more important PR for scum but it is speculation and I am not convinced.

I am just waiting for DOMO to post all of the analysis he can before we move onto lynch.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Leaving him alive doesn't make the cop less likely to die. There's always the element of roleblockers. The action is so unbelievable (to protect Ffery), that I think SSK is smarter than that as scum. In my last game, he was a scum tracker and tracked Geists N1, yes, as scum. Would he do the exact same thing as a fake doctor this time??? THAT is the 1 million dollary question. He could easily be a scum doctor. I just talked myself into being unsure, but I feel like it's a coin-toss with him. He's also easy to lynch because of his lurker tendencies. Gut-wise, I'm not feeling this lynch now that I have time to be looking over this game.

Are you implying SSK is not smart as town? Because I don't buy arguments that someone is "smarter than that" as scum. If they are smart players, they are smart as town as well and will make optimal moves. On the other hand, they could make sub-optimal moves when they are scum (if those moves are optimal for the scum).

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Talk about the reasons for not leashing SSK if he's scum, and tying scum into suboptimal kills for a night.

Also, talk about your other scum reads.

Weren't you the one who wanted SSK lynched today? Have you changed your mind? I mentioned it in 4545 although Cabd beat me to it a post earlier.

Not sure about other scumreads right now. Cephrir is going to throw a fit upon seeing this but... I was waiting to hear back from you about your read on him?
SSK and Casso are other scumreads.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Oh, wow. I completely missed 4627 and 4629. No idea how that hapenned. My apologies. I'll get back to you on that.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Can you link those scumgames where Sakura gave up and self-voted? I think I might be able to do a compare and contrast with her towngames to see if there are underlying motivations that can be spotted.

Here are a few games, scum and town.

As town: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5222069 This was a self-hammer

As scum not faking it (I think) - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5154079 This was L-1

This game is a twofer: As scum faking it (I think) http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5088017. As scum in the same game self-hammering: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5103138

As town: this one seemed mostly frustration. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p5161695 and this one looked like pure fatalism. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5215726


As town, to avoid a no lynch at deadline: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p5474281

As scum, self-hammer: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5505567

As town, over a supposed scumslip: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p5266921

So, I've had a chance to look through all this and I am actually surprised you are still considering that Sakura could be scum. Her intent and motivation has always looked different as both affiliations.

I found the first self-hammer as town to be out a rather misguided sense that town will look into her reads when they see her flip.

The second town one was done hoping to get Wisdom to shut up with the self hammer being out of sheer frustration and anger at the town. That is what feels most similar to here.

The third town game, the deadline self-hammer was accompanied by a reads list. This was probably the most productive self-vote since she gave her thoughts and hammered in a calculated way to avoid a no lynch.

The last town game showed a sense of giving up and wanting out of the game.

Comparing with her scum games:

The first one is a bet meant to create scum theater with her scumbuddy Generic possibly. It carried a threatening tone.

The second one was an implicit threat to you saying that you should be lynched the next day upon her townflip, possibly meant to create doubt.

Both scum self-hammers seemed to be because she didn't think she would survive.

Overall, I am seeing that Sakura self-votes as town when she gets frustrated with everyone and generally doesn't try to wiggle her way out of trouble. As scum on the other hand, her self-votes (minus the self hammers) are more manipulative meant to subtly threaten, cast doubt and cause people to feel pity. As scum, she seems to be expecting a response whereas as town, she merely expects to get lynched and get out of the game.

In this game, he ragequit while being flashwagoned at deadline seems overwhelmingly of the town variety of getting frustrated and wanting to give up. I expect Sakura-scum in the same situation would have said something like "lynch Casso tomorrow when I flip town."

She has completely different mindsets as town and scum. Thanks for posting the links. I am now a lot more sure Sakura is town. Your thoughts?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You think she is aware of those specific differences that I pointed out?

@ Sakura, do you believe my analysis of your meta is accurate? What are your thoughts about it?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

She was one the people to analyze on my to-do list. I wanted to verify if we were right about her /quit being a town-motivated one.

Was there anyone else you wanted to go over with me?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Do you have links to where this was discussed? I'd like to see how much self-awareness there is.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

If Casso pulls ahead of Desp, I will volunteer to be lynched

^ This reads as so manipulative. You CANNOT be so certain that Nacho is town that you are willing to get lynched in his place. Nacho is a good scum player. There will always be uncertainty and paranoia. Even ffery who can read him like a book isn't certain of his affiliation.

I'll get to all the conversations I left hanging on D3. But Cephrir wagon would actually be pretty awesome right now.

I think the quote above is an attempt to get townread because GIF did a similar thing (offer to get lynched) and got townread for it.

Between Desp and Nacho, I am really not sure. Tammy was being wierded out by Desp so that's a point against him and I am not confident in this read as much since it looks so much different from the town-Desp I know and love from the two games I've played with him and one I modded. He says he is changing his meta and I am really not clear on why.

If Nacho is town and we lynch him, I won't sleep tonight. BUT, he is giving me a lot of Nacho-scum vibes. For instance, his huge reads list seems off at a gut level. All his reasoning seems to be the generally accepted popular opinion although it is all quite good.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

This reads as so manipulative. You CANNOT be so certain that Nacho is town that you are willing to get lynched in his place. Nacho is a good scum player. There will always be uncertainty and paranoia. Even ffery who can read him like a book isn't certain of his affiliation.

I did the same before, why didn't you question it, yet you question Cephrir's motives?

You are not him.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

SSK is the obvious lynch today. Why Bert and massclaim?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You think she is aware of those specific differences that I pointed out?

Yes to most of it. Maybe all. It's not like some of these links haven't been plopped into other games and discussed before when she's gone fatalistic or threatened to replace out.

So, I've had a chance to go through FEA where Sakura self-voted and the ensuing discussion. It seemed to be geared more toward how quickly she gave up in the FEA game as opposed to her usual scum meta of battling wagons for a while which you mentioned happening in Duck/Goose. In this case, she did give up very quickly which I read as null because either she is town and gave up or she is scum and is trying to emulate what she learned about her own meta in FEA. But my other point about her attempts to manipulate as scum (that weren't present as town) weren't brought up so I am not sure if this is something she would be able to emulate. You also mentioned in that game that she self voted for reasons that didn't make sense. I doubt she is consciously aware of the points I brought forth and we look for very different things when we meta-dive.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

And the newbie 1436, you linked her town and scum fatalism but didn't exactly say what differences you found so it would have to take some intense reverse-engineering to figure out what you were referring to and work backwards to see what behaviors caused you to develop that read. I guess it is possible. I don't think it is likely.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Sure. When you're ready, name a day and a player.

zmuffin, bro, SER, Norlkaz, bert, pieguy, Cephrir

More or less in that order. SER and Norlkaz mostly because I'm horrifically unfamiliar with their play.

Sleeping on it, Nati and I still feel like this is town-Nacho. I hope we're right.

Can probably start tonight. I'm looking at isos for another game atm.

Have you changed your mind on Sakura?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ ffery, I get your point about Sakura not picking up on your real scumtells in Newbie 1436. I did feel that she picked up on something non-alignment indicative (such as you not posting trajectory analysis) as opposed to hone in on the real scum-motivated play which was posting it on demand. When I was reading it in real time, that was what I found off - that you went to all that effort because Sakura told you to, as I didn't peg you for someone who would bend to the will of others when you were town although you'd do whatever necessary to achieve your wincon as scum.

Putting myself into Sakura's thought process, I can see that she actually does believe that she caught you on a scumtell as evidenced by her after game comments where she posted her talk with Cabd on site chat. So, I think she may have felt that she legitimately caught you on a scumtell even if that tell is non-alignment indicative for you. I was looking more at her opinion of your "scumtells" rather than objective facts.

But, I quickly skimmed over 1522 I noticed this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5504606

Sakura, you clearly read that and are aware of ffery's reactions to being told what to do with meta/trajectories so I don't really understand your 3091.

You've read through the post there so I think you are at least you are at least partially aware that you were picking up on some null tells in that Newbie game. I want to talk more about that.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What do you think of F-16 not being in any major d1 wagons ever?

It's interesting.

Wtf? You've played with me enough to know that I am really slow to vote.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What kept you off the major wagons day 2?

Just didn't feel like voting any of them until the SC wagon at deadline.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What kept you off the major wagons day 2?

Just didn't feel like voting any of them until the SC wagon at deadline.

That was day 1.

Mostly the same reason.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Bert, I don't understand your desire to lynch yourself over confirmed scum. If there is any reason to not lynch SSK, it is if we feel that we can lynch a different scum but from your POV, you are confirmed town so why vote yourself?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

KBBQ is correct that you're not putting the level of effort into this game that I saw from you in the three other games we've played.

I have been putting in plenty of effort in a disjointed way at trying to read various players. I have read other games of Pieguyn's, Varsoon's, Tammy's, Sakura's, Generic's, Cephrir's.

What I haven't been doing is to unify all of it to do a POE analysis and solve the game. It is lot harder in a large. The games you've played with me, there were 6, 13, and 9 players respectively. In the 13 player game, I didn't replace in until the end of D1, and didn't start putting in massive effort to solve the game until D3 where there were 9 players. I had quite a few solid townreads D1, and had it been a micro, I would have pegged the scumteam by then. But there is this vast gap of null players and I don't know where to start. And each time I feel I have a solid lead, something else makes me doubt my read - like your points on Sakura, or Tammy's gut about Desperado.

I also haven't adamantly pushed players that I wanted to push - in normal circumstances, I would have pushed SSK/Cephrir harder on D2. I think I am playing with far more players that are better than me than I usually do. I tend to be average or somewhat above average in skill for a regular playerlist. Here I think, I am definitely in the bottom half and reading players is really hard. For instance, I don't even know where to start reading people like zMuffinman, GuyInFreezer, and to some extent Cephrir. I feel their scumgames are way over my head. I also think pushing lynches I want is harder with better players. In the games we played, that wasn't the case. In the Newbie game, it was just me, you, Bert, and JKLM doing most of the talking so I had a lot of influence. In the HP game, there were several people like Toomai, Rach, Amrun, and JacobSavage who really weren't active at all, so I had to step up and take the lead to some extent. In BBMolla's Doctor game, there wasn't anyone I thought was town that had differing reads from me and a much better scumhunter than me. I was very, very certain they were all being stupid/headed on the wrong track with respect to Pitoli and the GF tell so I tried to strongarm a different lynch through. The situation here is really different. It is much more similar to BB:HoH mafia where I sat back and let the Imperium hydra do all the scumhunting. Also, Tammy being killed N1 was demotivating. She was obvtown, easy to work with, and gave serious consideration to all of my reads.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Bert, I don't understand your desire to lynch yourself over confirmed scum. If there is any reason to not lynch SSK, it is if we feel that we can lynch a different scum but from your POV, you are confirmed town so why vote yourself?

because you all don't know whether I'm town or not. SSK-lynch doesn't give any more info. Another townie dies during the night, and we start from the same place tomorrow.

You are assuming that we can't read you and determine that you are town. Isn't that the whole point of playing mafia?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Ok.

It doesn't always work because scum often get brought into the fold, but a true, functioning townbloc in a large game starts with sometimes just 2 or 3 players who are confident of each others' alignment. And they work outward from there into an eventual web of mutual townreads and expands to reads of players you trust are town and think can read some of the outliers better than you can. And what's left is mostly scum. Mostly, but not all. And it's key to bring in solid town reads - and I mean solid townreads - faster than the townbloc is being decimated by night kills.

Sounds easy. Sometimes is easy. Sometimes is impossible.

I think we can do something like that in this game.

Okay. Based on roles, we know that you, MC Maraca, and Goodmorning are town. That's a good starting point. I am very confident Generic is town and I don't think anyone disagrees. That's 4 people I have in my townbloc. I'll shelve suspicion of Casso and KBBQ assuming you can read them well and think they are town. MafiaSSK is confscum and we are lynching him today.

That still leaves 8 more players: Pieguyn, Bert, Sakura, BRO, Norlkaz, SAD, zMuffin, and Cephrir.

I think Pieguyn is town and I'll wait to hear your thoughts after you finish sorting him.

I think Bert is town. I actually feel that his self-vote point more in the direction of him being town. Bert thinks I am a pretty good player. He also looks up to you and Nacho a lot. I highly doubt Bert would want to give up in a game where he is scum and we're all townreading him. I think he would be more excited and spend more time trying to manipulate everyone than just fading out if he was scum. As town on the other hand, getting townread by people that know his meta is no big deal. But, the self-vote bugged me. It makes zero sense to self-vote when a confirmed scum lynch is already on the table and plenty of people townreading him. But I also don't see the scum motivation. If he is scum, he's playing pretty well now getting all those townreads. What are your thoughts about that?

I'm still waiting for Sakura to talk about her read on you based on past experience.

I think BRO, Cephrir, SAD, zMuffin, Norlkaz and maybe Sakura are the ones likely to be scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I haven't noticed that. As far as I know, Bert doesn't seem to prefer one alignment over the other and puts in equal effort. I assume you are talking about the game you modded. I read through the scum QT and don't recall anything there. I'll check again.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

BRO, what is the reason you are playing differently here than in Anything Goes where you were much more involved in figuring out the scum?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't think that Cephrir as scum would be so hamfisted. His buddying to me in ASOIAF was a hell of a lot more subtle; it started out with him townreading me when I first began pouring effort into the game, then a slow build up of faked paranoia that he kept retracting when i continued not to get weird on him. I also haven't seen Cephrir make any dramatic loud gambits in his play as scum; he usually just plays a very solid day game and leaves it at that.

I also don't think scum tend to save town players who are close to death; it was the type of post I always expect to come when I'm getting lynched and don't deserve it at all, but never comes because scum is stepping back and letting it happen (the latest crosstown and the Vi lynch is the clearest memory, but Hard Boiled where I let NS get lynches is a pretty great example too). He also took a real risk if scum there; there was a lot of antiCephrir sentiments coming up and a few bad knee jerk responses could have made a dead Cephrir very very easily.

The confidence of it does bother me, but do you really think Cephrir as scum would go that deep to save me?

I'll read through ASOIAF and get back to you on that. I was planning to read the entire game in segments over a few days. I am not sure there is anything he is incapable of doing as scum and like zMuffin, I think he would push the limits and vary his meta. I am trying to see why Town-Ceph would do it as it is a lot simpler.

Cephrir wasn't in real danger of a lynch before I tried to persuade DOMO and he hopped on. You and Giests were both against his lynch to some extent. There was even more anti-desperado sentiment than anti-Ceph with both your slot and Geists pushing it through. I don't think he thought anyone would seriously consider it and push his lynch especially since everyone that asked to be lynched before (GIF, Sakura) weren't. So, I didn't interpret it as him trying to save you.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Based on interactions with SSK, I think Ser Arthur Dayne is scum. His defense against an SSK flashwagon at the end of D1 based purely on the lack of associative tells is weak. I guess the flip side is that scum knew SSK wasn't dying D1 because he had a doc fake-claim so there would be some scum running him up. But, not claiming D1 would actually be beneficial for scum. And the reasoning is really bad. I am thinking SAD is very likely the second scum. Not sure about the others yet.

Sakura, can you answer my questions?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am surprised more people aren't commenting on SAD's wierd defense of SSK considering we now know for sure that SSK is scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You guys do realize the MafiaSSK wagon literally gives 0 percent of actual helpful information right?

This is just wrong considering all scum lynches help achieve the town wincon.

Like literally there is no way to analyze anything of his wagon no matter the flip when he's lynched in half a day.

The one thing I got from this is Arthur is probably scum.

So who's good enough to analyze mafiassk's whopping 34 posts for scum-relationship tells if he flips scum?

Why does this matter? There's no downside to lynching scum at all.

How do we have 145+ pages of Day 1 and then we push the most useless wagon.

Like if mafiassk flips scum the ONLY thing we gain is one scum down (which I mean is kinda good but it's literally a random chance right now). We gain no other helpful info, and we start day 2 with no lynch info whatsoever.

This seems especially bad in light of Tammy pointing out that Arthur isn't an information lynch person. Will have to investigate that further.

Also feel free to analyze the "strong" wagons but you'll be literally analyzing them blindly because the mafiassk lynch/flip and the wagon relates a whole total of 0 percent to those "strong" wagons.

More emphasis on wagon analysis and less on SSK's actual possible affiliation.

How will you be doing things differently if mafiassk flips town? What if he flips scum? How will you take into account his flip and/or his wagon and how will you use this new found piece of information?

More flawed analysis that misses the point that lynching any scum is good.

Also you are literally wanting to wagon mafiassk because he's likely not to be here and thus not likely to pull an AtE like Sakura just did, and thus you won't feel bad if his wagon flips town.

This is a decent point but I don't like the continued defense. Arthur hasn't defended anyone else like this.

I don't actually do analysis before a flip, but I would imagine if she were to flip scum I would learn a lot more from her 174 posts than from mafiassk's 34 posts if he were to flip scum

More pushing of the "info-lynch" angle trying to get Sakura lynched instead of SSK.

I'll be out the whole day tomorrow, and

might

check in before the deadline on the 26th, but in case I don't.

Unvote
Vote: MafiaSSK

Feel free to call this bussing if he flips town. That's likely to be the only piece of information you'll get from the wagon *shrug*

This feels awkward. I do believe he is bussing.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

And you think I read every single post in Marketplace?

So what about the AA game? You think it was an exception because ffery was in a hydra?

That game was moving too fast for my liking and i left Nati all by himself, and even when I did read I skimmed and sometimes skipped pages.
Afair you had done trajectory analysis almost every solo game except on that one game where you were actually scum, which is why I thought it was a decent tell.
But since you're conf town now I was wrong.

I don't this is true. Can you substantiate it. Also, when confronted by evidence that ffery doesn't do trajectory analysis always as town, you qualify that statement saying now that she does it in solo games. So, why were you scumreading her in

this

game where she isn't playing solo?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Now you just have to tell me what the point is of defending SSK-scum who is guaranteed to be lynched eventually.

How was it guaranteed that SSK would be lynched eventually? Nobody had a real case on him. Regardless of its accuracy, the case that he wasn't likely to obvtown is pretty bad. Why not defend a buddy against a bad case? The "point" would be to lynch a townie on D1 instead of his buddy. That's one mislynch for the scum. That's a much better start for them than having a scumlynch D1. The way he was defending him strikes me as odd too. He never once states that he thought SSK was actually town. He is distancing from SSK while defending him.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

No, it was before. ISO them together.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

i don't see it. it's possible but it seems convoluted from SAD to defend him that hard only to eventually vote him and have him claim doc. it looked more like SAD was fighting against what he thought was a policy lynch that garnered no information if mafiassk was town. your argument there is essentially "he didn't want to lynch someone we now know is scum."

"meh," is all i have to say about that

I wouldn't have cared if he defended scum using good reasoning. The one he provided was incredibly shaky. I agree that it is convoluted but I don't think it makes sense from a town POV but I could see him as scum giving in to the pressure. I find his "so what will you do if he flips scum" to be troubling because it is ignoring the fact that a scum lynch by itself is cause for celebration.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am surprised more people aren't commenting on SAD's wierd defense of SSK considering we now know for sure that SSK is scum.

Why are you so fixated on SAD's defense but Norl's isn't a big deal?


Why do ya'll think SSK decided to give himself up today?

I explained in detail why SAD's defense was scummy. I hadn't gotten to sorting Norl yet but I don't find his defense as scummy because he was defending a townread. I am null on him. SAD's was far more unnatural. Explain to me why you think Norlkaz's defense is scummy. I only saw you state that it was in post 4792.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

If not then tell me what you're refering to.

I was asking you to substantiate your statement that as far as you knew ffery had done trajectory analysis almost every solo game except on that one game where she was actually scum.

Back then the only other hydra of ffery i had played with was MTC, who always rolled scum for a long while, on AA I was scum and I already knew her alignment, and you could ask Cabd that I really thought one of the factors of ffery scum was that she didnt use trajectory analysis on that one newbie game when he asked me who i thought the scum was when i was NK'd.

This really doesn't answer my question. Firstly, you are saying that ffery does trajectory analysis in all of her solo town games (implying that she doesn't do it in her town games as a hydra). She is in a hydra now so why were you scumreading her based off lack of trajectory analysis?

Secondly, I buy that during the Newbie game, you genuinely believed that you caught ffery on a scumtell of not providing trajectory analysis. But AA hapenned after the Newbie game. Did this alter your perception and make you update your meta tells? If not, why not? If so, why the scumread here? I see that you pointed out that you were scum in AA. Why would this stop you from updating the meta-tells you have?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

So, I've been thinking about this and re-evaluating my thoughts. Why not lynch a different player than SSK today? SSK as scum is harmless to us since we already lost the vig. I doubt it makes much difference whether we lynch him now or later. The key reason I feel this way is that as time goes on the skill of the town deteriorates as the competent townies get killed. We should lynch the best scum (the ones capable of talking themselves of out trouble) while the competent townies are still alive. That way, we ensure they don't come up with a crazy way to wiggle their way out of lynches later on. On the other hand, SSK can be lynched anytime. I found it interesting he didn't claim to be roleblocked or anything but scumclaimed right away. Anyone can lynch him anytime. It is a foregone conclusion. On the other hand, the best scum players are usually only lynched when the best townies are still alive and they are far more of a threat. ffery, what are your thoughts about this? Also, Sakura's responses were meh. I didn't really find anything that made me go "well, that explains everything." It is still a matter of weighing whether she genuinely believed in that tell enough to outweigh her ignoring it in two other games.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I meant lynch a potentially dangerous scum player, not lynch yourself.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't know what to make of his KBBQ vote. I was planning to go through all the player's ISO's that I don't have as strong townreads to do some analysis on interactions. I'll read through SSK as well but I am placing more stock into how other players reacted to SSK as opposed to how he reacted to them. That way, they can answer for it better. I'll be pretty happy if you can help me through them by providing comments so we can hash them out together. I had Casso as scum but I am willing to put aside that read in favor of ffery's Nacho read so we can focus on mutually agreed upon scumreads. As for Arthur, I think I'll have a better idea once I finish reading through the other player's interactions with SSK and verifying if he pushed for info lynches before.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Ceph, I don't see the benefit in lynching SSK for "morale." It is not going to improve my morale by lynching conf-scum and starting tomorrow with dead Geists for instance. I mean, you could say we should extend the day phase and get their thoughts but it is just not the same as having them involved in a lynch. I want as many optimal town lynches with the best players/conftown alive as possible.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I've thought about a few things and I think Norlkaz is probably scum. I'll have to double check though.

Current potential scumreads are something like this:

SCUMMIEST: Cephrir > Arthur > Norlkaz > zMuffin > Sakura > BRO :TOWNIEST

Generic, Pieguyn, and Bert read very town and KBBQ and Casso get a pass for today. The others are confirmed. So, I'll probably start doing the interaction analysis with SSK starting with Cephrir.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, that's what I was thinking regarding Norlkaz. I didn't like the "hope I didn't defend scum" either. Upon a re-read, his reasons seemed incredibly fabricated and make barely any sense. His further explanation in 4927 shows that regardless of his affiliation, he is BSing the reasons why MafiaSSK is town. Clearly, either he is town trying to "trap" scum who move off the SSK wagon or he is scum pretending to do so. I don't buy that he as scum was legitimately trying to derail the SSK lynch which had about 8 votes by then. It seems to be more of a move at towncred if he is scum.

Lllamarble as town is incredibly active and helps find and lynch scum. From what I gathered through his meta, he is trying to post less while being more influential and keeping his posts "clean" because he seems to believe that even if he massposts and plays really pro-town, he still winds up getting lynched. Norlkaz is a character he created because he has been trying to make fewer, more impactful posts.

I like his push on Nacho and him pointing out the differences between Perpetual MYLO and here seemed pretty accurate. I wouldn't put it past him to research as scum but the consistent attack on high hanging fruit made me lean town there.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Generic, I too found it a little odd that SSK scum-claimed today. I expected him to say that he was roleblocked or that his protect failed or that he protected someone else and for everyone to argue how stupid that was and to spend the entire day arguing why he ought to be lynched. It was actually a pleasant surprise to find that we could focus on other scum. I agree with the double-bluff but it can be town bluffing as well:

Subject: /in-vitational 12: Mafia in #YOLOville - All wrapped up!

As other folks town it up, I feel increasingly good about lynching Penguin.

I thought you stating that we should lynch CTD as more emphatic than just voting him seemed like an extreme reaction. It felt fake, but I wasn't sure where you were going with it. Basically, saying we should lynch someone, saying that they're acting scummy, and voting them is just overkill as a reaction early on. It makes a lot more sense that you were using it more as a reaction test than a sentiment you were committed to.

Scum are taken aback by somebody they know is town faking stuff and immediately wonder what the idea is.
'Where is this player going with this' is therefore a very common scum reaction to weird town play.
It's less common from town, who aren't particularly worried about where that player is going with their action; they just want to find out if the player is scum or not.
So maybe DV's reaction test silliness helped catch us a scumbag after all

He seems to like faking stuff for the reactions. This explains his FOS on Cephrir after he misinterprets Cephrir's "throws a fit" as annoyance at the disintegration of the SSK wagon. Going to have to see the extent to which he can do this as scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I skimmed through Norlkaz/Lllamarble's meta. I haven't finished yet but I'll post the links for easy reference.

TOWN: Mafia in #YOLOville, Revolution Mafia, Abarat, Mini 1412, Mini 1410
SCUM: TM 2012 White Flag, Outwitted, A uPick of Ice and Fire

Also, note that Empire used some of the same games in YOLOville to get a read on him. He was wrong there initially and I haven't read to see if he changed his mind, but the thing that struck out to me most was his description of scum-Llamarble as "tossing reads out of nowhere." It seems he is doing exactly that here.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, I want to hear updates on your reads and your thoughts about the plan to lynch someone besides SSK. I'd also like your opinion on my POE analysis and who you think we should lynch today?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

SCUMMIEST: Cephrir > Arthur > Norlkaz > zMuffin > Sakura > BRO :TOWNIEST

Generic, Pieguyn, and Bert read very town and KBBQ and Casso get a pass for today. The others are confirmed. So, I'll probably start doing the interaction analysis with SSK starting with Cephrir.

wtf why does Casso get a pass.

Spoiler: He has this

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Looking over the players left alive, I think every single player in the game is very competent. But I'd rather have conftown involved in as many lynches as possible. It is ultimately up to Geists. If they want to be involved in another lynch, I'll support that. If not, that's their choice. I'd like to hear their thoughts about the merits of this proposal.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What are your thoughts about it?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I originally got the idea from here. ISO them to read the next several posts. There are a few key differences though the main one being the competency of the playerlist. But still, competence is relative. The more good townies we have, the better our lynches will go.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Looking over the players left alive, I think every single player in the game is very competent. But I'd rather have conftown involved in as many lynches as possible. It is ultimately up to Geists. If they want to be involved in another lynch, I'll support that. If not, that's their choice. I'd like to hear their thoughts about the merits of this proposal.

What makes you think we won't be involved in this lynch? If you mean do we want to leave well-developed reads for future game days, we absolutely will leave our best efforts.

Right now, I'm feeling a little sidelined due to having a different opinion from quite a few players (a majority? I'm not sure.) about Casso/Nacho. And, Nacho's own attitude about those opinions is infectious. I worry that he's not working harder on reads, but he's almost guaranteed to be in the game tomorrow and today is a foregone conclusion.

What is not a foregone conclusion is being able to go through reads with me after today. And I'd like to work with everyone on reads as long as they aren't about cheese. The process itself gives alignment indicative clues sometimes.

I was referring to the fact that if we lynch SSK today, you won't have as much influence in future lynches. On the other hand, if we lynch someone else today with you dynamically influencing the lynch, you'll be more involved in it and we can lynch SSK after you are gone with no trouble. I actually got the idea from you in Borkgame considering how you wanted Majiffy dead immediately.

I provided my reads. I'll be going over them again trying to refine them with meta-dives over the next few days and I'll happy to hear your thoughts.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Regarding the Mason claim, I'd like an explicit claim from GoodMorning stating that you are Masons with MC and MC alone just to be safe.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I won by getting a mason to fakeclaim masons with me, nightkilled her before she could reveal the trick, and dominated. It's in coney island.

Although Mara's lack of paranoia regarding the Mason claim in Sixty's game makes it fairly obvious this one is legit.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, I am scumreading you because your reads are too PC (politically correct). You have the read that you

have

to have in order to not set off alarm bells for players like ffery. There is nothing new and exciting about them.

I seriously hope someone like Regfan replaces in.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think Nacho could be appealing to you specifically trying to outmaneuver your scumhunting of him. Not everyone reads him in the same way and if he knows what you look for, he could manipulate it to make you townread him even while everyone else scumreads him.

I'll take your read under advisement. I'm not sure whether the rest of the playerlist will do it. Nacho is one of the few people that I can rarely read correctly early on. I consider his entire body of work to get a read on him and that'll take a while to develop.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

One of things I look for is whether he is leading lynches on scum. In BB:HoH mafia, I had an easy townread on his hydra (although the read was heavily influenced by Tammy who was a lot more transparent). Mostly, it was because he had two scum pegged and pushed for their "eviction" (essentially a lynch, see the game mechanics). It worries me that he doesn't have a single strong scumread or pushed the lynches of any scum so far. I'll know he is town once he lynches multiple scum. He did make the SSK push and that alleviates my doubts somewhat but I haven't seen much else since then in the way of leading scum lynches.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, I am scumreading you because your reads are too PC (politically correct). You have the read that you

have

to have in order to not set off alarm bells for players like ffery. There is nothing new and exciting about them.

I seriously hope someone like Regfan replaces in.

this is an incrediby dumb reason to scum-read nacho.

His reads can be shit as town

, and

his reads can can be low key as town

. I have direct experience with that

Pedit: jesus, no

The bolded is not a reason I am scumreading him, but rather a reason I don't have a townread yet.

I assume by "low key", you mean reads that go with the flow which is what I accused Nacho of. I don't have experience with him doing it as town. Links?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, Thor's posts make me cringe. I don't want to comment on them. They are probably the most blatantly useless and anti-town posts I've seen anyone make.

Nacho in my experience doesn't usually bus but there are a few markers I look for regarding how and who he busses.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'll look through Sixty game when I find time. What are the points you touched upon for town-Nacho? Are they the same ones you posted on D1?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

But, he's also had "go with the flow" reads in our first hydra game, as well.

I also think that, there were a few newbie games I was stalking featured him going with the flow.

Pedit: so?

What are you referring to? My opinion of Thor's posts or Nacho's bussing tendencies?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Pedit: why don't you all lynch F-16

Unvote: Stuffed Crust
Vote: F-16

Done.
I don't even have a case on him. I don't care.

Voting an (apparent) townread with no explanation.

Vote: F16-Fighting-Falcon

Bert can be town now.

Come one come all, you need to hurry to be on the "town slots" of this speed wagon before you're stuck in the "scum trolley"
Oyez, oyez, oyez!

Continuing to push it for nonsense reasons.

Thor, what are your reads on everyone in the game?

Varied.


Eh, dunno, let's do this;

Thor's reads (not Nacho's...but feel free to treat them as Casso's because Nacho is being a sack)

1. Tammy - I read this as scum but apparently I read badly, basically I refuse to lynch this unless Nacho says 'go for it' though am bewildered by the meta.
2. geists (fferyllt + Natirasha) - Scum-ish.
4. MC Maraca (Cabd + Ms Marangal) - Null, I don't support a lynch ere though, call it town lean if you want.
5. F-16_Fighting_Falcon Townish.
6. Generic Townish to town, I'll go town at this stage.
7. Bert

roflcopter

Townish.
8. MafiaSSK

roflwaffles

I don't think I've even read a post from him yet - Null.
9. Stuffed Crust (Mac + Varsoon) - Town.
10. pieguyn

SonOfZeus

- Scumish
11. BROseidon - I lean town here, it's weak and is more of a 'lack of objectionable' than a 'presence of awesome'
12. Norlkaz

Brian Skies

- Townish, but against lynch due to Nacho.
13. KoreanBBQ (GuyInFreezer + Nero Cain) - I call him scum, and Nach seems to basically call him "town with waiting" or some gak - call it null as a whole, I'd lynch it.
14. goodmorning - I was actually sold on town here after seeing a bit of meta.
15. Sakura Hana - Scummish.
16. Ser Arthur Dayne

pitoli

- Eh, Null, I'll toss him some town points for declaring hatred of the game though.
17. zMuffinMan

talah

- Nach and I are debating here, but we'll say it's town still because Nacho's reasoning is kinda silly to me.
18. DOMO - I hate reading Domo, eh, call it nullish town.
19. Cephrir - I think he looks scummy as hell, but Nach has called it a no touch zone. I'd probably tow the company line, but if you want reasoning I'd have to mash together some Nacho blather for it.
20. Desperado - Scummy


I look forward to this going anywhere or doing anything for the game.
I'll hold my breath.

Nothing useful or insightful here.

pieguyn is actually worrying me some.

Unvote: Korean BBQ
Vote: pieguy

You didn't ask, but my case is 'eh, why not?'

Bad reason to jump on a wagon.

What's the roflcoptor case? Is it exciting and does that wagon have any legs?

Shows that you did not read the thread.

None of these posts make you scum. But they are all blatantly anti-town as they obscure your affiliation making you harder to read. They don't help the town in any way making them useless and unworthy of serious consideration or comment. That was my reply to ffery asking me what I thought of your posts. They are null to me. I don't get why you are surprised at "hostility" when you've been playing like this.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't really care and it is a good thing he is in a hydra. I am counting on Nacho's posts to give me a solid read on them at some point.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, I'd kinda like your thoughts about Thor, F-16.

blah

What are your thoughts about Thor? Did you feel you noticed anything alignment relevant?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't agree that disconnected Thor posts are necessarily town. Thor tries to do as scum what he would do as town and is generally very good at it. I think that if he fell behind, he would act the same way regardless of alignment.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Also, how sure are you about your read on KBBQ?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

So, you are saying you didn't look for the tone and timing issues in Touhou and only added that scumhunting tool to your arsenal recently?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

The pool of players were too large. I wanted to focus on mutually agreed upon scumreads first and see if I can get a better read on Nacho in the meantime.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What is your theory for why ffery is townreading Nacho when you have such a strong scumread on him considering past ability to read him accurately (for the most part)? Where do you think is the flaw in her reasoning?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I was following through the Red Wine game where a lot of players here were also playing, most notably Cephrir and Espeonage.

Cephrir

:
I realize what I said about Cephrir's "rhetorical expressions of surprise" didn't actually make any sense earlier but I saw parallels to that in Red Wine. I haven't yet read through his town games and I probably won't since he's replaced out anyways. I'd rather focus on Titus. But I have a scumread on that slot partly based on me reading Cephrir correctly in Red Wine. I could be wrong because of the "Bulbazak-type" mentality (his posts remind me of Bulbazak very strongly although I am not entirely sure why. Here's what I thought of Red Wine. Geists, you both were in it. Thoughts?

Red Wine – The most notable traits are the twinges of certainty exhibited routinely at various points in the game in the first 5 posts of Cephrir’s ISO. Cephrir as scum is unafraid of going after high hanging fruit often criticizing fferyllt and Albert B. Rampage for their play very harshly. This is surprising and means that his FOS on Tammy in this game should be taken to be null at best rather than as a towntell which I initially considered it to be. There are several expressions of surprise in Red Wine which felt very unnatural on hindsight. Some examples include “You just went from voting ABR to voting with his really shitty case. His post detailing said case does not seem much different to me from his earlier post that got you to vote him. So all I have to say to this is, "what?"” and “Huh? Guy just said he read the dang game, and it's a pretty surface level thing they're talking about. Are you implying scum are more intellectually honest (interesting but requires explanation)?” in post 377. His 379 asks why things are happening although he could have just figured it out himself by reading the thread. Overall, I felt that Cephrir's expressions of surprise here were contrived and unnatural and I thought the same thing about Red Wine.

Llamarble/Norlkaz

:
I feel that his posts here and in Red Wine are worlds apart. His posts in Red Wine as I mentioned in the dead/spectator QT made a lot of sense. I felt that he was the voice of reason and the most likely to be killed N1. His reads were largely positional and the reasoning given for the reads is fairly short to non-existent. However, as I followed it in real time, I could understand what he picked up on at a gut level and realize why he was having the reads he did. His suspicion of Empire is one such example. Overall, his play here seems nothing like his play in Red Wine which is a cause for concern. I am still reading Mafia in YOLOville to get a better picture of his towngame and will probably follow up by reading through ASOIAF for his scumgame. At this time, I think it is likely Norlkaz is scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

That should read Llamarble, not Espeonage.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Oh, and me reading Cephrir in Red Wine was in the spectator QT although I had a few misgivings.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@F-16: thoughts on the idea that norlkaz was testing the waters to try to derail the SSK wagon? the fact that he left himself an obvious back door about defending scum reinforces that IMO

I think it is possible. You say he and Casso are likely scum. Do you think he would bus a stronger player (Casso) while defending a weaker player? I generally find strong scum tend to defend each other while bussing weaker scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

It was in post 4466.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

That was actually a very good post which concisely explained why Casso was scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Goodmorning, and KBBQ, I asked for the number of Masons because I wanted to hold Cabd to a definite claim and didn't want any behind the scenes shenanigans to screw us over. For further reference:

I'm around.

PSA: If anyone would like to flip out and get paranoid on my mason status now, given the events of mini 1531, speak now or forever hold your peace.

I won by getting a mason to fakeclaim masons with me, nightkilled her before she could reveal the trick, and dominated. It's in coney island.

Also, Nacho we need to talk.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Mara, can you elaborate on Norlkaz-town?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Mara, I read through your Norl-town case and I am not entirely convinced he can't fake those things as scum. I'll look through the things you mentioned while reading his scumgames to see what I find.

Norlkaz, I'd like to see your reasoning behind your reads (as much as you can provide). I think that will help a lot as far as making you more transparent or "towninate" if you are town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay. Why the push on Desp D2. I never really understood what the point of it was. I had some vague paranoia of him but nothing else. It felt like you saw the suspicion that ffery and others had on Desp and pushed it through. I didn't see a coherent line of thought that made you believe he is scum. Most of your attacks seemed to be on the line of town-Desp not apathetically letting you die but it wasn't a really strong point. It seemed like your case against zMuffinman was so much stronger and took up a lot more of your time.

You are defending Titus pretty hard based on mostly null-tells. There was nothing about her that I found town, at least not yet. Is this influenced by your Cephrir townread and are you giving her more of a benefit of the doubt due to her predecessor?

Who are your best picks for a scumteam right now? What do you think of my assessment of Norl/Llamarble?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

And my meta on Cephrir?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

If you don't really have a good read on Titus, why interrupt GM's line of questioning rather than let Titus answer for herself and see how she responds? I haven't finished reading ASOIAF yet but from what I gathered, it seems that Cephrir has fooled you there as well. Why wouldn't you be wary enough of the slot to at least let GM sort Titus out for herself?

What was the basis for your scumread on BRO?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Okay, I was re-reading and I saw that Thor and GM were interacting before so that makes sense. GoodMorning's posts didn't really convince me other than me feeling that she was attacking who I thought was scum for other reasons. In 4725, you say that the major reason that you were reading Cephrir town was completely wrong and completely faked. How did that read come back? Did Cephrir's defense of you and saying that he will allow himself to get lynched in your place the sole or primary reason for the resurgence of your townread?

Your reads post looks a lot different from the one in Perpetual MYLO in that you have no scumreads to which you can point out and strongly say that you are scumreading them. It seems like you are townreading almost everyone while pointing out small concerns from your scumreads. For nearly everyone, you made sure to point out some town things they did. Why is it that you are not confident in any of your scumreads to the extent you were in other town games I've played with you (BB:HoH and Hunterx being a few examples of games of similar size)?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Cephrir read ended up good. I was still feeling Cephrir town after I went through Cephrir's posts in ASOIAF and got general vibes from it. The defense was a primary resurgence for a townread, yes. Do you think it's a faulty one?

Yeah. I felt that it was unreasonable and manipulative and definitely not something outside the range of capabilities for a player like Cephrir.

I'm happy lynching SAD. I'm happy lynching SSK. After that, things get a bit dicey. Perpetual MyLo was a perfect storm where I had ffery to flesh things out behind the scenes and we work absolutely excellently together, I was under absolutely insane pressure from wanting the first game we played together to be a good one and crazy amounts of pressure with the person I know best on the site rolling scum and us having a very strong read on them being scum, which sort of helped the rest of the scumteam fall out. This game, we have SSK pegged pretty much by nothing but luck, SAD pegged fairly solidly, and then this weird middle ground where I have pretty solid townreads on very strong scum players and not so strong scumreads on different good players, meaning that there's a little wait and see approach to wait either for the good scum players to become insanely town (like what's happening with Cephrir's slot, Titus push on the softclaiming vig is town as hell) or for the not so strong scumreads to become strong scumreads or town it up (Llamarble).

I don't see Titus's push on the soft-claiming vig as alignment indicative at all. Explain why it is town.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I thought Titus was scum for a good portion of the game (all of it?). I don't really have a good read on Titus at the moment, but Cephrir still seemed town.

Nati and I both disagree with you on this. We both have strong scum reads on Titus.

For the rest of the thread, Nati said something that caught my attention in hydra chat last night. He trusts a nacho town read from Mara and Sakura over a nacho scum read from F-16 and GM. I agree, but that's not why we're townreading him.

I don't really agree with Mara's reasoning for reading Nacho town. My read has weakened somewhat through interactions with Nacho but that is based more on his responses making some sense and addressing all the pent up suspicion I had fairly well. I also strongly disagree with Sakura's read on the Casso slot. It doesn't make that much sense. I must be missing something completely. I'll admit though that I don't agree with GoodMorning's reasons for scumreading them either. What of Mara's and Sakura's reasons for reading Casso town were persuasive? What do you think of zMuffin's, Llamarble's and Pieguyn's take on it?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, that makes some sense. Is Mara also the type to have gut reads and the obscure her real reasoning by providing other (probably weaker) reasons in-thread to not give away strategic advantages?

Generic, your point about Cephrir resonates with me because one of the things I found off about him was his interaction with me. When no one suspected me D1, he defended me calling Sakura's FOS on me "moonlogic" in 959 and expresses approval of my objection to Pieguyn's GoodMorning read in 961, agreeing with me on Rofl in 1071 and in general treading very carefully. He also appreciating my meta-dive of DOMO in 1320. However, after a few people suspect me, his tone then changes with him starting to throw slight suspicion in 2744, 3695, and 4021. However, after I start pushing on him, he backs off and again starts reading me as town which I feel is similar to what you describe. I didn't feel that his reads had any genuine scumhunting behind them but rather sucking up to universally townread players while setting up suspicion on players that could be suspicious which is what I gathered from his interaction with me.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

zMuffinman, I've been looking through your ISO to see why you think Casso is scum and almost the entirety of it seems to be based on the way Nacho has tried to read you. Is there anything outside of their read on you that you find scummy? You said in 5870 that is mostly gut and that ffery's points are too vague for you to counter. But starting from scratch explain to me in a nutshell why you think they are scum outside of how they are sorting you. What do you think of the way Nacho has gone about sorting other players for instance and how he has approached the game in general?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Generic, your point about Cephrir resonates with me because one of the things I found off about him was his interaction with me. When no one suspected me D1, he defended me calling Sakura's FOS on me "moonlogic" in 959 and expresses approval of my objection to Pieguyn's GoodMorning read in 961, agreeing with me on Rofl in 1071 and in general treading very carefully. He also appreciating my meta-dive of DOMO in 1320. However, after a few people suspect me, his tone then changes with him starting to throw slight suspicion in 2744, 3695, and 4021. However, after I start pushing on him, he backs off and again starts reading me as town which I feel is similar to what you describe. I didn't feel that his reads had any genuine scumhunting behind them but rather sucking up to universally townread players while setting up suspicion on players that could be suspicious which is what I gathered from his interaction with me.

did you notice he did this with me too

when I posted my catchup post on replace in he immediately threw me into his townpile and then when it looked like I could be lynched he conveniently reversed said read with a sketchy reason

I think I am beginning to agree with this, his questioning of me felt kind of robotic

Yeah, you are right. The suspicion came after Casso, MC, and Geists had all expressed suspicion of you.

Did you go though my list of reads? Are there any reads you disagree with and if so, who?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Nacho, I haven't read ASOIAF yet, but hopefully I'll finish it before this day ends and offer my comments there. For now, taking your word for it, I'll agree with there being town motivation in defending you if he thinks you are being suspected for silly reasons. But the way he went about it didn't seem town. I think town would be more likely to defend a player from being lynched as opposed to offer themselves as a lynch in their place. For instance, if I am townreading Player X, I'd try to persuade other people into understanding why Player X is town. I'd also want to be around to defend Player X in the future. By offering myself to be lynched, I set the stage for a mislynch on me and a potential mislynch on Player X somewhere down the line. I'd absolutely want to be alive later on so I can defend Player X from further silly attacks or at the very least be someone who would not vote Player X. So, we can agree that Cephrir's move was illogical from a town standpoint. He's already seen GIF tell people to lynch him and be townread for that. He's learned that asking to be lynched is at worst null. I don't believe Cephrir is averse to taking risks. In the Red Wine game which I was spectating, he FOSed ffery and Albert B. Rampage harshly criticizing them. He bussed his buddy Espeonage writing up a case on him. He certainly takes risks so I am not writing off risk-taking as a towntell.

Norlkaz, I am still waiting for you to provide reasoning for your reads. You acknowledged that you need to town it up more and I feel that would be a good starting point. I'd like to see where you are at with respect to all of your reads and why.

Pieguyn, my current reads:
TOWN: Geists/MC/GM, Generic, Pieguyn, KoreanBBQ, Prophylaxis, Casso, Sakura, zMuffin, BRO-slot, Norlkaz, Arthur, Titus, SSK: SCUM

The major changes are that I now feel KBBQ are legitimately town as opposed to sheeping ffery's read. Mostly gut-based and how they are interacting with players and developing reads. Their overall presence also feels town. Their reads-list in 6178 was the final touch that I felt town on because I agree with most of it.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What of his mutating read on me and Pieguyn based on whether other people are suspecting him and his interaction with Generic which Generic pointed out earlier?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am still processing your post and checking back. Links would be helpful.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am a little unclear on which townread you were talking about. I see that you said zMuffin was town based on gut in post 4845 and followed it up by asking him where he currently was at with SAD in post 4846. I noticed he responded in post 4874 saying that he wasn't confident in his townread but he doesn't want Arthur lynched.

You pushed harder on SAD in post 5032 saying that it was based on the tinfoil theory, which I am assuming is this theory. How did you get back to a townread on zMuffin in post 5535? Or was this part of the gambit?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Pie, I think they are valid points and I think should be considered in the event of an Arthur scumflip. The one that bugged me was this one:

I find his "so what will you do if he flips scum" to be troubling because it is ignoring the fact that a scum lynch by itself is cause for celebration.

i think this mostly comes down to a different school of thought, and isn't necessarily anything to do with his alignment. the only valid concern here would be if tammy was right about him not caring much about information from lynches in any other games, but i haven't checked whether this is true (and i don't intend to any time soon)

No. We are lynching SSK today. If we have any remaining investigative roles we give them a night; SSK could be a scum PR; narrows the field for tomorrow though this one is probably not relevant. I see no compelling reason to do anything else.

this

This is weird. He doesn't know what school of thought Arthur has having never played with him. Yet he assumes that Tammy was wrong about him by default leaving her being right as a "valid concern" which he has no intention of checking. I am not sure if he would defend a buddy this way and this post actually made me slightly paranoid that I was accusing town-Arthur and scum-Muffin was defending him. But, everyone knows zMuffin is a busser so the one thing I'd expect him to do this game is

not

bus so I don't know. It could work either way. What are your thoughts?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

@ Gen: RE F-16, no, I don't agree with alot of the things he says and I think that there are alot of things that make me jump and want to call him scum because of how different from me he is.

This is so true. Everytime you post something, I find myself thinking "

she can't seriously believe that.

" I think I'd have a pretty hard time reading you in general. I town-read your scum hydra in Swagtown when everybody else including your buddies pushed you, and I scumread you here D1.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

i don't need to play with someone to have an understanding of their playstyle

So, what of Arthur's playstyle made you believe he was someone that lynched based on the information that can be received from a lynch?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

ffery, did you and Nat get a chance to look over Red Wine and compare with my meta-dive?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

And what are your thoughts regarding the differences in Llamarble's behavior here compared with Red Wine? I'd ask about Cephrir but I am assuming we are in agreement there. It wasn't actually hard to read either player as town/scum, especially Llamarble although Cephrir was probably the trickier one.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I know that that is what he said. My question is why you believed him by default as opposed to consider the alternative - that he was scum defending SSK - especially when someone that had experience playing with him (Tammy) implied that he wasn't of the info-lynch school of thought like you assumed.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I'm thinking of doing it sometime before the day ends so we know for sure.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Not good at all.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Titus, your case is really weak. It seems like you are trying to emulate your stubborn town meta that Nacho pointed out to you after the end of ASOIAF.

I thought the big thing that sold me on you was the way you compromised some morals when convenient (Alfred being scum for hammering, scum in fake guilted players). You usually stick up for what you believe in as town and push it in a very poignant way; you didn't do that here.

You did well to fake some pretty key moments, though

Where's the awesome Titus scumhunting I saw in Big Brother: HoH mafia? Right now, you feel like a fraction of your Big Brother self.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can buy that it takes you a while to replace in but your stubbornness seems out of place especially considering the strength of your case. It looks like you are trying to fix your mistakes from ASOIAF. I "voteparked" because I am generally slow to vote and switch votes.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

And what are your thoughts regarding the differences in Llamarble's behavior here compared with Red Wine? I'd ask about Cephrir but I am assuming we are in agreement there. It wasn't actually hard to read either player as town/scum, especially Llamarble although Cephrir was probably the trickier one.

That was my first game with llamarble and I had no idea how to read him. His reads were more accurate than mine for the most part, but during that game on day 1 and 2 I didn't know what to make of him. He had reads but he wasn't pushing them very hard, and the one hard stance he took (espeonage-town) I really disagreed with after I read through the game projectmatt linked and the case he made for espe-scum. So, I'm in a similar situation - not really understanding the basis for some of his reads, and therefore not trusting them. And his playstyle is different but I don't know if that's playing to his alt-meta. He has a harder edge in this game than he did in Red Wine.

Ceph's play here did not really fit his town meta as I've recently seen it (Dixon Hill, Cash Cabd, NY167), but it's hard to see the fatalistic stuff as fitting his scum-meta. There was one point where I finally flashed onto oh-hell-this-is-scum-Ceph on day 1 of the Red Wine game, and his reaction to my sudden vote didn't have a "you're wrong because I'm town" feel to it, which I did occasionally see flashes of in this game. This post is a good starting point for that exchange.

The notable thing about Llamarble's Espeonage defense was that it was based on the wagon composition more than his actual read. He

immediately

caught on Empire/Tammy scumteam and spent a significant amount of time calling them scum. Then they bussed the hell out of Espeonage leading Llamarble to defend him on the basis that the wagon reeked of scum.

votecount

espeonage (4): empire, tammy, projectmatt, bbmolla
fferyllt (4): cabd, cephrir, espeonage, crashtextdummie
Albert B. Rampage (2): katsuki, Llamarble
bbmolla (1): Albert B. Rampage
pjovek (1): chamber
chamber (1): pjovek
katsuki (1): TSO

Not voting (1): fferyllt

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

I think we've reached the point where Espeonage's wagon confirms him as town?
Certainly it's a wretched hive of scum and other scum.

although later in post 572, he sort of conf-biases himself into defending Espeonage on his own merits.

The "basis" for his reads was that he believed scum was pushing Espeonage. They were. I think the reason you didn't understand it was that you weren't scumreading Empire + Tammy and using that as the basis for townreading other players. When I was watching it unfold in real time, I was scumreading Empire so I was able to follow his thought process very easily and closely.

This at least makes sense with the way he created "a scumteam based on Pieguy" here because he tends to create an entire vision of who the scum are based on scumreads that he feels incredibly confident about. In Red Wine, it was Tammy and Empire. Here it was Pieguy (although that read seems to have changed). Obviously, the reason I couldn't follow anything he said here was that I am townreading Pieguy really hard so his entire scumteam possibility didn't make sense.

That actually makes me think Norl could be town.

What do you mean by "hard edge?" Can you point out the posts which you felt had a "hard edge?"

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am still keeping the "I can read ffery but she can't read me" bragging rights.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

"Lean town?" I figured ffery would have my meta nailed.

Anyways, I obviously don't have a strong townread on Casso. I feel Generic and Pieguyn are a little more obviously town than Casso/KBBQ but I am warming up to KBBQ considerably.

- Can you describe town and scum things from Bert's slot?
- Why do you lean town on Sakura?
- I think BRO-town can be below the radar based on a town game of his I read. I think he would be more focussed and "in the game" as scum and it seems to be his preferred affiliation.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Geists, you make good points on Sakura and Bert. I think it fits with Sakura's personality to be attached to a revelation that she seems to have concluded. I want to see more from Proph before nailing down that read. I'd still like to hear Nati's concerns about Norl.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am down with lynching SSK once I get Nat's take on the Red Wine game w.r.t Llamarble.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

What's up, f-16?

Nati has some pretty strong concerns about Norl but I think I'll let him talk to you about them when he has a chance.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

OH YEAH I hated his huge post defending SSK even back when he posted it.

I know he later copped to it but it seemed like a bad backtrack.

Then he votes Ceph. The vig diatribe seemed like a kinda pointless tangent, although I know why he feels pumped about that topic(ie being a sick-ass vig in both MTGS games).

I didn't like it either. What I did like was that his reads were very bold and against the grain. I also thought that his points about Nacho compared with Perpetual MYLO were very good ones. I dislike that his activity level and enthusiasm isn't at the same level as Red Wine and most of his posts are promises for content rather than actual content.

I skimmed through his ISO in his scum game (A uPick of Ice & Fire: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... ct[]=22491), and it was actually very different in that he never really pushed scumteams. He spends a lot of time focussing on townreads and POEing the scum from whoever is leftover.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think Proph is probably scum. I looked through Proph-games and saw that he was more active as town. I saw Generic mention the lurking and I wish you hadn't because if we let him be, we could have a larger sample of evidence to develop a read from. By letting him know that you'll be looking for lurking, it makes it easier for him to change that aspect of it.

Assuming Geists die tonight, Pieguyn, Generic, and KBBQ are solidly in my townbloc and I feel that we can agree on reads as well. Other town: GM, Mara, Sakura. Casso is in no man's land. I am thinking probably 5 scum. 4 with a vig seem too little. So, 4 scum from Norl, Titus, SAD, RC, Muffin, Proph.

Still waiting for Nachyllt make-up session. Hopefully it will be entertaining.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Townbloc = people I can bounce reads off of and agree with.
Other townies = all other people that I think are town.

Doesn't have anything to do with strength of my read.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

So, I quickly skimmed Arthur's games and I didn't find anyone where he argued for lynches based on information. Arthur, can you point out specific instances where you've always been an "info lynch person or anytime where you felt that the lynch that yields more information is the good one?

So who's good enough to analyze mafiassk's whopping 34 posts for scum-relationship tells if he flips scum?

Tammy responded to this defense as if this wasn't something you cared about normally, which alarmed me. Why did you start caring about them here?

VOTE: SAD

Umm, I actually always cared about them?

R u kidding me
We don't need associate tells to hunt scum

Okay feel free to go hunt by magic but I'd MUCH prefer a wagon that actually yields info.

When did you become a big ol information lynch person? I'm pretty sure I remember that once when I was scum and lurked and trolled, you declared that were going to travel to everyone's houses and type my name in to ensure my lynch when there was literally no information to be gained from my lynch because i didn't do anything.

I mean I get it if you're town reading SSK, but other than that when did you do big associative tells for scum hunting?

The difference between the game she mentioned here and this one is in that one I had a SCUMREAD on her. I have no problem with lynching one of my scumreads when it will yield no information. I do, however, have a problem with lynching a completely null read that will yield no information, especially when there were so many better lynch options. In the particular game she mentioned, I believe she was by far the best lynch option of the day, and again, I was scumreading her.

To address zMuffin's point about why he would claim something so easily falsifiable, Arthur didn't make this claim until D2 until after Tammy was nk'd. It wouldn't be easily falsifiable by others because it would require quite a bit of work to figure out.

I am cool with Arthur lynch after we've heard from others but I'd much rather lynch Titus.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I just can't see the town in her play. She seems to focus on things that are either disproved or irrelevent, that feels like trying to avoid having to do any real hunting.

I thought I was gonna die last night, and it would have given me confirmation on my reads... But that was the ego more than anything I think. And also of course no use to the game as I wouldn't be in it anymore.

Why SAD over others?

What motive does scum have to focus on disproved or irrelevant things? Do you think she's trying to play dumb, do you think she's trying to push through a mislynch, what?

So, she can confirm to the notion of "stubborn town-Titus" that never lets go of her position that you described in ASOIAF?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

RC is ok, I gues but I'm more interested in the converged reads amongst my top-townies

I think Proph is probably scum. I looked through Proph-games and saw that he was more active as town. I saw Generic mention the lurking and I wish you hadn't because if we let him be, we could have a larger sample of evidence to develop a read from. By letting him know that you'll be looking for lurking, it makes it easier for him to change that aspect of it.

Assuming Geists die tonight, Pieguyn, Generic, and KBBQ are solidly in my townbloc and I feel that we can agree on reads as well. Other town: GM, Mara, Sakura. Casso is in no man's land. I am thinking probably 5 scum. 4 with a vig seem too little. So, 4 scum from Norl, Titus, SAD, RC, Muffin, Proph.

Still waiting for Nachyllt make-up session. Hopefully it will be entertaining.

Townbloc = people I can bounce reads off of and agree with.
Other townies = all other people that I think are town.

Doesn't have anything to do with strength of my read.

I think that, our to opposing views should mean that the two of us should take into consideration of each other's reads and doing so will result in reads that are that much more stronger, and that much more accurate and, strangely enough your reads aren't to far off of mine. The only two I completely disagree with you on are Pie and generic (generic, in that I feel like he shouldn't be in the solid town-group just yet, but he isn't exactly my top suspect) and, as it stands we pretty much agree on SAD, Proph, and Muffin. I can vibe Titus-scum and RC scum, and while I have a mild town-read on Norl I don't feel like it's enough to upgrade him to where I am putting you, Geists, GM, and Sakura

I kinda feel like RC is policy lynch this game though, and I don't think I really wanna touch him unless we really, really, really have to

I think Norlkaz could be town. I find him the least suspicious of my possible scum pool. Can you explain your concerns about Pieguyn? I was reading Generic as strongly town mostly due to his aggressive stances like his Day1 play and his push on DOMO which I think would be difficult for him to fake and were absent in his scumgame that I played with him.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

There's no way mafia would have attempted to kill Generic last night, and I jailed him for a no kill so let's lynch him now.

Hmm, I guess that's another time Generic got straight past me

VOTE: Generic

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I doubt RC is faking it considering there wasn't a kill last night but I'll

UNVOTE:

for now until he confirms.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Not buying it.

VOTE: Generic

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Scared of you? Why?

Again what have you got to lose being lynched if you are town Titus?

A better question is what have you got to lose by being lynched? I mean, sure we lose a PR if you are town, but that is two scum in the bag (RC/Titus) for the price of losing a PR. That is a risk I am willing to take.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Can you link to the relevant posts?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

For my future reference, here's where I am at:

13 players, possibly 2-3 scum (I'll assume 3 just to be safe) just like in a Mini. I know I am town, Geists is town, GM is town, and Mara is town (I'll set aside the "Giests-scum-doc" paranoia and let it resolve itself). That leaves 3 scum in the remaining 9 players:

1) KBBQ
2) Sakura
3) Pieguyn
4) Norl
5) Titus
6) Proph
7) SAD
8) zMuffin
9) Casso

That's a good place to start re-evaluating everyone. I think there is a possibility that players I am townreading could be scum. I am most paranoid of Pieguyn. So, this is a good place to start from scratch.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Pie, couldn't you also interpret Generic's push on Proph as scum coaching other scum? Looking at it in hindsight, Generic basically told Proph exactly what he needed to do to diffuse suspicion of him. I didn't like that Generic so easily provided meta-tells even before he had a chance to apply them to a greater sample of posts (that should have been a red flag). But I felt at that time that on the off chance that Generic was scum, the most likely scenario was that he was coaching his buddy.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, that's true. It mitigates my suspicion but there's also the fact that coaching him in thread serves the dual purpose of Generic getting towncred if he calls out Proph and Proph at some point flips scum.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, that's true. It mitigates my suspicion but there's also the fact that coaching him in thread serves the dual purpose of Generic getting towncred if he calls out Proph and Proph at some point flips scum.

Although if that were the case, Generic would just tell Proph to spike up his activity in the scum QT and then townread him in thread for high activity levels.

Pedit: Yeah, I think he would be more likely to not want to unsettle the status quo of both him and Bert being townread.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I can see merits to both arguments.

Although I suspect an ulterior motive, cephrirs comment about morale does have value. This game needs a scum lynch to give us a foundation to build from. Until we see a flip we cannot start using VCA or links via interaction. The counter argument is of course that SSK is trolling so has essentially revealed he is scum. But his involvement in this game represents potential wifom, and if we choose someone else and they are town he is still there with a vote to quick hammer immediately.

The flip side which f16 has championed loudest

is we have SSK in the bag, and can still do analysis surrounding him but with the added bonus of a scum player available for compromise lynch should we find ourselves close to deadline.

unvote

I personally think he is the best lynch for today after slipping through the net twice, but I don't want to allow him and scum buddies of his the opportunity to end the day before we are ready to.

Based on this post, I am inclined to think that scum were setting me up for defending the mafia encryptor. The suspicion there is really subtle and meant to be a "

why didn't I see this before

" type moment.

Continuing from that theory, Cephrir's post seems like a minor slip of inside information:

No. We are lynching SSK today. If we have any remaining investigative roles we give them a night; SSK could be a scum PR; narrows the field for tomorrow though this one is probably not relevant. I see no compelling reason to do anything else.

This makes me suspect Titus even more.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Cephrir, my prior slot holder, pushes for the confscum and that makes me suspicious F16? Are you high or drunk?

I like the coaching theory even with daytalk. Scum have to interact with each other at some point. Helping scumbuddies diffuse suspicions is good. Also the presence of daytalk is part of the reason I cannot clear KBBQ.

GM, Generic self-hammered before we'll ever know if that was true.

Piegyn, your townblock needs serious work if Bert was in it prior to Prophy replacing in. His posting has sucked compared to his town games. Bert's behavior sucked.

1) I said you were suspicious because Cephrir might have let slip insider information about MafiaSSK being a scum PR, not because he pushed for the lynch of a conf-scum.

2) Why do you assume that I am either high or drunk as opposed to scum? The last game we played together, I posted an intense meta-dive of you to conclude that you were town. I think you'd expect me to read you correctly if you were town. I am scumreading you based on meta here. Your lack of paranoia that I am scum twisting your meta to get a mislynch when other people suspect you is telling.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I have. Do you believe Titus is town?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Her logic doesn't make sense. Her push on KBBQ doesn't make sense. I think that points to Titus being scum trying to emulate her stubborn town-meta as opposed to Titus as town actually believing what she says. Town-Titus is far more logical and reasonable. While some of her ideas are unconventional, they are things that can plausibly come from her. Here is a recent game I played with Titus-town so you can see what I mean: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=30983

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I do like Arthur eviscerating Prophylaxis on his "votal analysis" so that makes me view more favorably. I am not sure if it is just a case of Proph being naive town and Arthur ripping him apart regardless of affiliation. "Votal analysis" is probably the most gimmicky pseudo-scumhunting tools I've seen in a long time.

Mara, why would we lynch you/GM before Casso? Are you combining how town someone is with how good a player is? Walk me through how you made that list.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Arthur, was there a game where you did anything even vaguely similar to what you did with SSK, i.e. choose lynches based on the info they provided?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

No, I am referring to you defending SSK on D1 because even if he was scum, we wouldn't get any info about his partners.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

My list is basically my town block being the last to get lynched and everyone before that rated in terms of scumminess, prospective usefulness to both alignments, and what has happened earlier on in the game.

my list also assumes no kills happen over night, which is unlikely though

I am forcing scum to kill stronger players

and I want our day play here on out reducing as much noise as we possibly can

why me/GM before Casso, is me assuming that we are alive the day before mylo/lylo and it is me saying that, if that is the case one of us should be lynched

Okay. So, there is barely anyone here who is unskilled or "weaker" than other players save one maybe. Sure, some players are better than others but nearly everyone that is left is a good player capable of winning the game should they get to LYLO. I am taking a guess that the "noise" you are referring to is coming from Titus and Proph.

Scum will obviously nightkill the players that are confirmed through roles first (you, Geists, Goodmorning). Once that is done, I actually have no idea who they might want to take out. Perhaps people that are hard to lynch or players that have accurate reads. The only discretionary kill they made so far was Tammy who is impossible to lynch and potentially accurate in her reads. Are you assuming that by putting Casso at the bottom of the list, scum would nightkill him? If so, why would that be a desirable outcome considering you have a very strong townread on them? I may be misunderstanding the bolded (correct me if I am) but why exactly do you want to force the scum to kill stronger players? Clarify this part.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I disagree with your worldview about Pie or that he is in any danger at all of getting lynched. But putting that aside, you are arguing that we should lynch lynchbait, but isn't that exactly what scum want? They lynch the weaker townies (with approval from the Masons, no less) and kill the stronger townies (and conftown) at night. If you think someone is town and easy to lynch, it falls on you to give everything you got to derail the lynch. if I think someone is lynchbait and town, I defend them to the death.

I think Titus is scum. I thought Cephrir was scum as well. So, I am happy to lynch Titus today. But I obviously disagree with your next targets. I think making a lynch-list purely based on the likelihood of that person being mafia (in other words, your reads from scummiest to towniest) and lynching the scummiest players is beneficial. I am still unable to grasp the added advantage we get from taking player skill into account. It seems to be a more sophisticated version of a "don't want this player in LYLO" move which I strongly disagree with.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Since we are at least agreed on this,

VOTE: Titus

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

what's your read on proph?

Haven't figured it out yet.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am not lynching KBBQ, Sakura, and Pieguyn are my townreads (in addition to Geists, GM, and Mara) although it worries me how much Pie and I agree with each other. My lynch order would be:
Titus
Arthur
Muffin
Proph (interchangeable with Muffin)
Norl
Casso
Pieguyn
Sakura
KBBQ
Mara/GM/Geists

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't remember saying that in MD. Link?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't agree with the strategy of lynching unflexible players or tunnelers. Ultimately it is going to come down to lynching people whose playstyles you don't like. I disagree for instance that Titus would be a liability and I don't like the notion that she shouldn't be allowed near LYLO even if town. I've kept quiet about it though because I've been trying to get her slot (Cephrir) lynched for ages and I'd rather not derail a likely scum lynch. I don't care to find the PeregrineV's of this game and keep them away from LYLO. I'd rather find the PAs and lynch them and wrap up this game long before LYLO.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I don't agree with the strategy of lynching unflexible players or tunnelers. Ultimately it is going to come down to lynching people whose playstyles you don't like. I disagree for instance that Titus would be a liability and I don't like the notion that she shouldn't be allowed near LYLO even if town. I've kept quiet about it though because I've been trying to get her slot (Cephrir) lynched for ages and I'd rather not derail a likely scum lynch. I don't care to find the PeregrineV's of this game and keep them away from LYLO. I'd rather find the PAs and lynch them and wrap up this game long before LYLO.

In principle I don't agree either, but I'm thinking about what, if anything would change about my list if I did agree.

It doesn't seem like anything would change for me.

NY 164 is not the first game (or last) that "my" town has lost due to horrible LYLO play by a town player, but I still have a gut level nuh-uh reaction when I think about utility lynching someone I feel sure is town. Even when I'm the only player who feels sure. Even when I can see that their grasp of the game is really weak. The game isn't just about winning. It's about being a team, even a team whose members I don't fully know. And it's about passing on what other people have taught me about the game to people less experienced.

I like your outlook on it being a team game. I feel that overall the goal should be prevention of LYLO rather than cure.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I am happy to see Titus hammered whenever.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah. Here's a hypothetical: Casso and I are in LYLO (Casso is scum) and I have the deciding vote. I think long and hard. I research extensively into Nacho's meta. Heck, I even read a bunch of Thor games to see what I find. After hours and hours of worries, close to deadline, I finally throw out all the evidence, all the research and place one thing above all else: ffery read Nacho as town, therefore he is town... and I vote the other person - and scumcho wins! To top it all off, you were spoiled in the dead thread and knew Nacho was scum all along.

What would you do?

Spoiler: Option A

BASE jump from the nearest building

Spoiler: Option B

Snowboard on the Golden Gate Bridge

Spoiler: Option C

Kiss a killer whale to release that pent-up angst

Spoiler: Option D

Hijack an F-16 and bomb the world

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Good to hear.