NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)


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Post Post #5600 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:43 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

f16 wrote:I find his "so what will you do if he flips scum" to be troubling because it is ignoring the fact that a scum lynch by itself is cause for celebration.
i think this mostly comes down to a different school of thought, and isn't necessarily anything to do with his alignment. the only valid concern here would be if tammy was right about him not caring much about information from lynches in any other games, but i haven't checked whether this is true (and i don't intend to any time soon)
ceph wrote:No. We are lynching SSK today. If we have any remaining investigative roles we give them a night; SSK could be a scum PR; narrows the field for tomorrow though this one is probably not relevant. I see no compelling reason to do anything else.
this
spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh
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Post Post #5601 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:57 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 5538, Casso the King of Seals wrote:Pie, I will also point out that SSK joined 1 major wagon (stuffed crust near deadline). His reaction to every other wagon has been "why is this wagon happening? I don't like it.". I don't know how you have a townread on Muffin.
wow this is really weak. I was expecting "you're wrong, here's why". but instead you don't even directly address my point? what the hell nacho? where'd all your passion go 0.0

anyway, what motivation would scum-SSK have for pushing a vanity wagon on BBQ as opposed tyo jumping on town-you for p much the same reason? especially considering he was complaining about you seemingly following Nati earlier. idr how much support there was for BBQ lynch but I don't think there was that much, so why wouldn't he try to get a p strong town player mislynched instead? and he wouldn't have to worry about you turning the wagon aroudn on his ass bc he was already about to be lynched anyway
In post 5551, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Based on interactions with SSK, I think Ser Arthur Dayne is scum. His defense against an SSK flashwagon at the end of D1 based purely on the lack of associative tells is weak. I guess the flip side is that scum knew SSK wasn't dying D1 because he had a doc fake-claim so there would be some scum running him up. But, not claiming D1 would actually be beneficial for scum. And the reasoning is really bad. I am thinking SAD is very likely the second scum. Not sure about the others yet.

Sakura, can you answer my questions?
^^^ this
In post 5557, Cephrir wrote:pie I hate to break it to you after all this work but I really don't think this is a good argument
care to explain why not? also feel free to answer the above question

where the hell did your casso townread come from anyway? I can't find the reason for it anywhere
In post 5567, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I am surprised more people aren't commenting on SAD's wierd defense of SSK considering we now know for sure that SSK is scum.
I'VE BEEN COMMENTING ON IT THE WHOLE TIME
but everyone ignored me too :cry:
In post 5589, MC Maraca wrote:You know that we're town, and that vote isn't gonna do anything. You also know that I've been defending you, so me placing that vote didn't just come from no where. If you're town, instead of OMGUS'ing and attempting to flail, it'll probably be more conductive if you gave my hydra partner and my mason partner a reason to read you as town
what do you think of casso's response to my VCA?
In post 5593, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:So, I've been thinking about this and re-evaluating my thoughts. Why not lynch a different player than SSK today? SSK as scum is harmless to us since we already lost the vig. I doubt it makes much difference whether we lynch him now or later. The key reason I feel this way is that as time goes on the skill of the town deteriorates as the competent townies get killed. We should lynch the best scum (the ones capable of talking themselves of out trouble) while the competent townies are still alive. That way, we ensure they don't come up with a crazy way to wiggle their way out of lynches later on. On the other hand, SSK can be lynched anytime. I found it interesting he didn't claim to be roleblocked or anything but scumclaimed right away. Anyone can lynch him anytime. It is a foregone conclusion. On the other hand, the best scum players are usually only lynched when the best townies are still alive and they are far more of a threat. ffery, what are your thoughts about this? Also, Sakura's responses were meh. I didn't really find anything that made me go "well, that explains everything." It is still a matter of weighing whether she genuinely believed in that tell enough to outweigh her ignoring it in two other games.
this x 999. I was actually thinking about this earlier but I didn't know if it'd be a good idea or not 0.0
vote: Arthur

wanna lynch Arthur with me?
In post 5599, Cephrir wrote:No. We are lynching SSK today. If we have any remaining investigative roles we give them a night; SSK could be a scum PR; narrows the field for tomorrow though this one is probably not relevant. I see no compelling reason to do anything else.
I don't get the first one
if SSK is a scum PR why would he give up so easily? this is scum motivated thinking in that you don't actually try to figure out if he is a PR or not and instead use ATP. and why would you wanna lynch SSK over arthur of all people considering your whole crusade against him earlier?
lynching SSK does the exact opposite of narrowing the field. if we lynch SSK then the lynchpool tomorrow is the exact same as it was today, so it doesn't get narrowed at all 0.0 but if we lynch someone else we get way more information. we can lynch SSK anytime as we have him in the bag p much. it's way better to lynch someone else today
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Post Post #5602 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:04 pm

Post by pieguyn »

@F-16:
speaking of SSK interactions what do you make of SSK voting BBQ over casso at D1 deadline? also where are you at with casso?

@geists:
what's your thoughts on Arthur and what do you make of maraca voting casso?
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Post Post #5603 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:22 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

I don't know what to make of his KBBQ vote. I was planning to go through all the player's ISO's that I don't have as strong townreads to do some analysis on interactions. I'll read through SSK as well but I am placing more stock into how other players reacted to SSK as opposed to how he reacted to them. That way, they can answer for it better. I'll be pretty happy if you can help me through them by providing comments so we can hash them out together. I had Casso as scum but I am willing to put aside that read in favor of ffery's Nacho read so we can focus on mutually agreed upon scumreads. As for Arthur, I think I'll have a better idea once I finish reading through the other player's interactions with SSK and verifying if he pushed for info lynches before.
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Post Post #5604 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:30 pm

Post by Cephrir »

pie: I guess I just don't put much stock in VCA this early.

I'll get down and dirty on associating SSK partners at some point, it actually hadn't occurred to me to start looking at it before he's even dead really, I'm sort of locked in on timing that in a pretty mechanical fashion.

I could try to explain my Casso townread, but I'd have to read all five fucking hundred of their posts again to really articulate it, and I /really don't want to/. tldr though, I have not seen him make this level of effort outside of ASOIAF. His town moments as scum tend to come in short bursts rather than be a continual pounding.

re not lynching SSK: perhaps the more important thing to me is that if we don't lynch scum today my morale for this game will drop from 0 to -15.

I did crusade against SAD but he's done some things since then (ie flipping on me) that don't make much sense from a scum perspective since then. He does deserve a reread though. Soon I'll probably comb his iso, make a wall about him with no particular point at the outset, and see what I end up thinking, because that is sort of what I do, and then I'll make all of you read the whole thing and follow my thought process because I can.
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Post Post #5605 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:31 pm

Post by Cephrir »

VOTE: SSK
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Post Post #5606 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:35 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

Ceph, I don't see the benefit in lynching SSK for "morale." It is not going to improve my morale by lynching conf-scum and starting tomorrow with dead Geists for instance. I mean, you could say we should extend the day phase and get their thoughts but it is just not the same as having them involved in a lynch. I want as many optimal town lynches with the best players/conftown alive as possible.
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Post Post #5607 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:38 pm

Post by Cabd »

Can we stop voting ssk now so ffery and i can talk? i dont even care if everyone else prod dodges until we're done.
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Post Post #5608 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:39 pm

Post by Cephrir »

I'm not saying lynch him now. We should use the heck out of the day phase. My vote is largely symbolic and I will unvote if things get out of control.

I guess it makes the most sense to let geists decide what to do with the day.

It doesn't "make sense". I just want to lynch the fucking scum.

Whatever, you're probably right, I just don't want you to be. Every time SSK posts I want to claw my eyes out.
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Post Post #5609 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:40 pm

Post by Cephrir »

Oh, I'm 6 votes. Ugh, I guess.

UNVOTE:

But I'm not happy about it. I'll leave my vote nowhere until it's actually decided whether we're lynching SSK.

Then again I will probably be breaking this promise within like 2 posts.
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Post Post #5610 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:44 pm

Post by geists »

In post 5608, Cephrir wrote:Every time SSK posts I want to claw my eyes out.
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Post Post #5611 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:45 pm

Post by geists »

In post 5607, Cabd wrote:Can we stop voting ssk now so ffery and i can talk? i dont even care if everyone else prod dodges until we're done.
Are you ready to talk?
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Post Post #5612 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 7:51 pm

Post by Cabd »

As soon as I get out of the tub and get to quote these hydra slips? Yeah.
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Post Post #5613 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:09 pm

Post by Norlkaz »

I'm not sure why SSK gave up; it's not like we'd expect his protect to work anyway.
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Post Post #5614 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:48 pm

Post by Cabd »

Ok I lied, going to bed soon, tomorrow afternoon-evening is a date, ffery/.

Oh and also light scumread on norlkaz right now.
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Post Post #5615 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:59 pm

Post by Bert »

unvote
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Post Post #5616 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:56 pm

Post by MC Maraca »

In post 5592, Cephrir wrote:
In post 5589, MC Maraca wrote:
In post 5536, Casso the King of Seals wrote:
In post 5529, MC Maraca wrote:Ffery. There was a good case on casso made by GM, and I for one am quite trusting it, and as for mara, well, SHE made that vote, not me.
Vote: MC Maraca


Call this vote on you symbolic because the GM case on me is shit and everyone knows it.
You know that we're town, and that vote isn't gonna do anything. You also know that I've been defending you, so me placing that vote didn't just come from no where. If you're town, instead of OMGUS'ing and attempting to flail, it'll probably be more conductive if you gave my hydra partner and my mason partner a reason to read you as town
Has he not already given you 499 reasons
They apparently aren't good enough, since every defense I have tried to give fall of deaf ears, and I'm even starting to reconsider my stance on them
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Post Post #5617 (ISO) » Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:57 pm

Post by MC Maraca »

In post 5607, Cabd wrote:Can we stop voting ssk now so ffery and i can talk? i dont even care if everyone else prod dodges until we're done.
In post 5612, Cabd wrote:As soon as I get out of the tub and get to quote these hydra slips? Yeah.
In post 5614, Cabd wrote:Ok I lied, going to bed soon, tomorrow afternoon-evening is a date, ffery/.

Oh and also light scumread on norlkaz right now.
Here you go, Cabd!
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Post Post #5618 (ISO) » Tue Jan 14, 2014 4:35 am

Post by Generic »

I can see merits to both arguments.

Although I suspect an ulterior motive, cephrirs comment about morale does have value. This game needs a scum lynch to give us a foundation to build from. Until we see a flip we cannot start using VCA or links via interaction. The counter argument is of course that SSK is trolling so has essentially revealed he is scum. But his involvement in this game represents potential wifom, and if we choose someone else and they are town he is still there with a vote to quick hammer immediately.

The flip side which f16 has championed loudest is we have SSK in the bag, and can still do analysis surrounding him but with the added bonus of a scum player available for compromise lynch should we find ourselves close to deadline.

unvote


I personally think he is the best lynch for today after slipping through the net twice, but I don't want to allow him and scum buddies of his the opportunity to end the day before we are ready to.
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Post Post #5619 (ISO) » Tue Jan 14, 2014 4:54 am

Post by Sakura Hana »

I personally think he's trolling because he's obvscum and wants to avoid any possible interaction analysis from when he's lynched.
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Post Post #5620 (ISO) » Tue Jan 14, 2014 5:15 am

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

I've thought about a few things and I think Norlkaz is probably scum. I'll have to double check though.

Current potential scumreads are something like this:

SCUMMIEST: Cephrir > Arthur > Norlkaz > zMuffin > Sakura > BRO :TOWNIEST

Generic, Pieguyn, and Bert read very town and KBBQ and Casso get a pass for today. The others are confirmed. So, I'll probably start doing the interaction analysis with SSK starting with Cephrir.
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Post Post #5621 (ISO) » Tue Jan 14, 2014 5:37 am

Post by Generic »

In post 5613, Norlkaz wrote:I'm not sure why SSK gave up; it's not like we'd expect his protect to work anyway.
If it helps things along I looked at norlkaz and in their initial posts they produce a few revisions of a hardly explained scum team prediction with no mention of SSK. They begin mentioning and defending SSK after the claim.

After that very little mention of him and a focus on casso scum before desperado is also introduced, having only expressed any suspicion on him once in an association with Pieguyn as part of an either/or with muffinman.

Then recently there is this:
In post 5613, Norlkaz wrote:I'm not sure why SSK gave up; it's not like we'd expect his protect to work anyway.
I don't like this. I don't get it either. It's why I looked back at norlkaz.
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Post Post #5622 (ISO) » Tue Jan 14, 2014 5:38 am

Post by Generic »

Double quoted there.
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Post Post #5623 (ISO) » Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:01 am

Post by KoreanBBQ »

In post 5580, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
In post 5576, KoreanBBQ wrote:
In post 5567, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I am surprised more people aren't commenting on SAD's wierd defense of SSK considering we now know for sure that SSK is scum.
Why are you so fixated on SAD's defense but Norl's isn't a big deal?


Why do ya'll think SSK decided to give himself up today?
I explained in detail why SAD's defense was scummy. I hadn't gotten to sorting Norl yet but I don't find his defense as scummy because he was defending a townread. I am null on him. SAD's was far more unnatural. Explain to me why you think Norlkaz's defense is scummy. I only saw you state that it was in post .
I could buy a SAD scum. Norl is someone that I'm pretty wary of, I think Norl's defense of SSK was scummy 'cause scum could easily do all that and it seems off that he wants SSK scum meta but not SSK town meta. And his "opps, I hope I didn't defend scum." is just...idk scum taunting us?

What info would a SAD flip get us?
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Post Post #5624 (ISO) » Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:18 am

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

Yeah, that's what I was thinking regarding Norlkaz. I didn't like the "hope I didn't defend scum" either. Upon a re-read, his reasons seemed incredibly fabricated and make barely any sense. His further explanation in shows that regardless of his affiliation, he is BSing the reasons why MafiaSSK is town. Clearly, either he is town trying to "trap" scum who move off the SSK wagon or he is scum pretending to do so. I don't buy that he as scum was legitimately trying to derail the SSK lynch which had about 8 votes by then. It seems to be more of a move at towncred if he is scum.

Lllamarble as town is incredibly active and helps find and lynch scum. From what I gathered through his meta, he is trying to post less while being more influential and keeping his posts "clean" because he seems to believe that even if he massposts and plays really pro-town, he still winds up getting lynched. Norlkaz is a character he created because he has been trying to make fewer, more impactful posts.

I like his push on Nacho and him pointing out the differences between Perpetual MYLO and here seemed pretty accurate. I wouldn't put it past him to research as scum but the consistent attack on high hanging fruit made me lean town there.

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