NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[Norlkaz]

This game will get a nice timechunk tomorrow; maybe some tonight as well.

[goodmorning]

@F16: I can only suspect it's because certain players are more difficult to lynch regardless of their alignments, but I'm sure Mara will answer as well.

[Ms Marangal]

My list is basically my town block being the last to get lynched and everyone before that rated in terms of scumminess, prospective usefulness to both alignments, and what has happened earlier on in the game.

my list also assumes no kills happen over night, which is unlikely though

I am forcing scum to kill stronger players

and I want our day play here on out reducing as much noise as we possibly can

why me/GM before Casso, is me assuming that we are alive the day before mylo/lylo and it is me saying that, if that is the case one of us should be lynched

Okay. So, there is barely anyone here who is unskilled or "weaker" than other players save one maybe. Sure, some players are better than others but nearly everyone that is left is a good player capable of winning the game should they get to LYLO. I am taking a guess that the "noise" you are referring to is coming from Titus and Proph.

Scum will obviously nightkill the players that are confirmed through roles first (you, Geists, Goodmorning). Once that is done, I actually have no idea who they might want to take out. Perhaps people that are hard to lynch or players that have accurate reads. The only discretionary kill they made so far was Tammy who is impossible to lynch and potentially accurate in her reads. Are you assuming that by putting Casso at the bottom of the list, scum would nightkill him? If so, why would that be a desirable outcome considering you have a very strong townread on them? I may be misunderstanding the bolded (correct me if I am) but why exactly do you want to force the scum to kill stronger players? Clarify this part.

I chose some pretty strange words...

but, yes. Scum obviously will kill us first, after that, I'm presuming that scum are going to have to kill off stronger players. I'm pretty confident in that we probably don't have any more PR's

as for unskilled and weaker, alot of us are decent players, however alot of people here are easier to lynch, and easier to frame. Sakura, Titus, and Proph all fall under here (and, arguably I would too if I wasn't conf. town)

it's also for this reason to why I don't have Sakura in my town block despite having a good enough town-read on her

and, for forcing scum to kill stronger players, we are lowering the pool of lynchable players and, scum are going to have to try and mislynch them. among these players, there are people who are noted for catching scum AND the "stronger" players are the ones who are more familiar (or would be) with those around them

I am also pretty certain that, at some point, you could die after us which leaves Pie wide open who, if town, has only really survived because you have been defending him all day and that could be gone at any point

[Ms Marangal]

I... hope that makes sense, but I'm kinda tired, so

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I disagree with your worldview about Pie or that he is in any danger at all of getting lynched. But putting that aside, you are arguing that we should lynch lynchbait, but isn't that exactly what scum want? They lynch the weaker townies (with approval from the Masons, no less) and kill the stronger townies (and conftown) at night. If you think someone is town and easy to lynch, it falls on you to give everything you got to derail the lynch. if I think someone is lynchbait and town, I defend them to the death.

I think Titus is scum. I thought Cephrir was scum as well. So, I am happy to lynch Titus today. But I obviously disagree with your next targets. I think making a lynch-list purely based on the likelihood of that person being mafia (in other words, your reads from scummiest to towniest) and lynching the scummiest players is beneficial. I am still unable to grasp the added advantage we get from taking player skill into account. It seems to be a more sophisticated version of a "don't want this player in LYLO" move which I strongly disagree with.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Since we are at least agreed on this,

VOTE: Titus

[zMuffinMan]

"Votal analysis" is probably the most gimmicky pseudo-scumhunting tools I've seen in a long time.

what's your read on proph?

You're not pushing me because you don't think anyone will listen? You never struck me as a Cassandra type

*shrug* we both know you're not getting lynched today regardless of how much i scream and kick for it. it's a better use of my time to to hunt for scum outside of you before coming back to you. there's also the possibility i'm wrong about you but i don't really care at the moment

The only thing that's kinda worring me about Muffin is his kinda switch on Proph. Like I remember him saying something along the lines of "[his] reads are so weird I want to call him town." And now he's hardcore scumreading Bert's slot and maybe trying to manipulate me.

i've been thinking bert was scum for a while now. i did feel that proph looking completely oblivious to the game state felt kinda townish, but it was nothing strong (i was looking back at it and realised it could have easily been faked) and that was before the generic flip and before i read other posts by him.

[Prophylaxis]

And here's Gen's post

looks like he was trying to shake off your question. it was a round about way of not giving a real answer. rest of the post looks pretty bullshit, though, given his later call-out of proph was for lurking and there was no followup to that call-out

...So yeah, it's really not as poor as you're making it out to be. The only town on town lynches are fairly rare.

if you give five examples and one of those is a town on town lynch, how can you call it rare? i'm not even arguing about the rarity, i'm arguing that it happens and basing your argument on VCA is flawed; it's helpful sometimes, sure, but when your argument is "look at this wagon, it solidifies X as scum" no.

also i wasn't specifically talking about lynch wagons, but any wagon. and seeing as your VCA includes wagons on unflipped players, you seem to be talking about that, too. it's not that rare that full town wagons occur at different stages of a game (especially a large game)

From my experience, it's pretty rare that five town will be on a lynch in a row, and when that happens, it usually means that the wagon is on scum.

Can you show me some examples on this site? I don't think it's different here.

I mean, looking at the previous NY game (NY 167), and pulling up all of the five man wagons:

Guyett

[L-4] -

PeregrineV, Sakura Hana

,

orcinus_theoriginal

,

TheIrishPope, Guyett

JacobSavage

[L-4] -

sangres

,

MC Maraca

,

orcinus_theoriginal

,

Cephrir, Hermy

Angry Frat BROs

[L-4] -

likeabauss, Toomai, Guyett, Hermy, RadiantCowbells

RadiantCowbells

[L-4] -

MC Maraca

,

TheIrishPope, RadiantCowbells, Cephrir

,

orcinus_theoriginal

orcinus_theoriginal

[L-4] - [color=#]Sakura Hana,[/color]

sangres

,

Guyett, PeregrineV, Toomai

caledfwitch

[L-4] -

MC Maraca

,

Sakura Hana, yessiree, Guyett, Cephrir

I mean, I'm acknowledging that wagons comprised of town on a town lynch /do/ happen, but things that happen once per 50+ wagons aren't worth considering.

If you're confused, I can tell you more about how I scumhunt, but really I'm less interested in talking to you about theory and more interested in lynching the (three? two?) scum we have.

I do have to admit that Prophy selectively choosing the D1 lynches and pretty much effectively ignoring the fact that that is a few games out of several played here is pretty hillarious and... naive, I guess?

Give me a game and I can pull up the wagons, and show you that scum are indeed on town wagons.

I don't have the time to go through every single game on mafiascum.net and provide statistical evidence of it, of course, but again, it's fairly rare that a all-town wagon is on town.

And then there's me wondering why you have me as a scumread, yet you're not voting me.

My read on you isn't as strong as Titus, also I already had a scumread on Bert and my case is somewhere in D3.

Responded to SAD, not you. Apologies.

MM, Pie is town. After me, lynch Prophy. He is obvscum.

You continue to ignore the points I've brought up against you, and ignore my large posts, and say "I'm obvscum".

Not sure if you're scum, or just incapable of reading.

*reads below*

Let's go through all of the problems with your post, Titus.

Sakura/Prophy Bus each other already!

You're calling Sakura and I scum and telling us to bus. How deep in the tunnel can you get?

I'm not scum, and I really haven't paid much attention to Sakura at all - she's pretty much just coasting. I have her as a Not Town/null read, because I don't see anything townish in her posts.

Calling each other unbaised while scumreading each other.

..What? Sakura called me unbiased, and I told her to expound on it more, since unbiased is a pretty noncommital word. Again, I'm not even scumreading Sakura yet. Why are you misrepping me?

Confbiasing me while putting together meta vcas.

How am I confirmation biasing you? You and Cephrir have done legitimately scummy things, and you're using a whole bunch of buzzwords to dismiss my analysis.

Prophy, you and I both know that was a cherrypick.

...

I'll post more in my next post; this is getting pretty long.

[Sakura Hana]

Can you show me some examples on this site? I don't think it's different here.

I think i'm the prime example of that.
Somewhere along the way on my first few games, I was used to being obvtown most of the time, then one game suddenly grew up on me lead by Wisdom just calling me scum for no reason which led me to a self-hammer, and there was when my paranoia and AtE began, this reflected pretty badly on my reputation, and I was frankly getting tired of it... then FEA came along and I just went "fuck it" and was going to quit mafia... enough that I replaced out of all games except that one and out'd of all the queues i was in, tho my friends convinced me to stay, then the whole thing with me replacing out when I was fed up with stuff came up, and mostly it was because i couldnt think rationally on the game anymore, which coincidentially happened on all my town games so I got banned for it as a trust tell.
Nowadays I'm trying to improve on that fact (again) and hope that this time I succeed on that, because plenty of people have told me I have great potential in here and I wouldn't really like that to go to waste. But if you wanna see the biggest chance of 5 ppl piling up on Town then you can pretty much look at my meta.
I think I even point out every game I've been mislynched in, but FEA is another place to look at where iirc I got wagoned by town and scum was defending me (lolz), In either case i'm not blind to my mistakes, and I always hated when people would make me like Innocent Child when my AtE would break out or stuff like that. In fact I think i started replacing out because I didnt want to "ruin games" anymore with my AtE which probably only made it worse.
In either case I'm trying to improve in that regard, when I got wagoned here it was prob. when I was still thinking of quitting for the second time, and people took it as it being related to this game, when it was just something that was helping me strengthen a decission I had made before.
Whichever the case tho, Nacho as scum should know better than to wagon me into AtE, because he would have to back off and treat me like an Innocent Child or otherwise it would be extremely fishy for him to continue pushing otherwise, which is why im pretty confident Casso is town this game.

You are free to take this with a grain of salt, but I'm probably more experienced in the town wagon on town regard due to having it experienced it myself.

[Prophylaxis]

@Sakura

Can you give me specific links to games?

In addition, what is FEA?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

what's your read on proph?

Haven't figured it out yet.

[Sakura Hana]

This is FEA: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31053
The game that started it all: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=29666
The "blacklis tell": http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=30057
The game i dont even wanna remember: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=30234

I think those are the most important ones.

Sakura Hana 7 (chesskid3, Ellibereth, T S O, GoodCop_BadCop, ActionDan, Nero Cain, Natirasha)

^ My main wagon on FEA all of the voters in there are town.
The people defending me were Saki (SK), notscience (Scum) Maki (Town), talah (Town) iirc

[geists]

I defended you too.

[Prophylaxis]

I'll look it over when I'm not tired.

Who were the scum in that game? Don't see it revealed in the OP.

[geists]

Doomed Hyrule, notscience, baltimorons, Maestro, Penguin Alien and Saki (SK)

[Sakura Hana]

Scum was: notscience, Doomed Hyrule (Mac+GiF), Baltimorons (Oriole+Amrun), Maestro/Shadi, penguin_alien.
SK was: Saki

[Sakura Hana]

I defended you too.

Sorry I forgot, tho notscience and Saki and to some lesser extent Maki were the most vocal ones on it.

[zMuffinMan]

I mean, I'm acknowledging that wagons comprised of town on a town lynch /do/ happen, but things that happen once per 50+ wagons aren't worth considering.

i don't know where you're getting that number from or what sample games you're looking at, but the number of times it happens (especially in large games) is far higher than that.

the point is you're using reasoning like, "there's scum here because VCA and i don't think it's X or Y so it must be Z" <- that's terrible logic.

[geists]

I defended you too.

Sorry I forgot, tho notscience and Saki and to some lesser extent Maki were the most vocal ones on it.

They chainsawed. Well notsci and Saki did. Maybe that made it more memorable. I think GCBC wound up defending you as well, but we weren't attacking your attackers.

[goodmorning]

Oh Muffin. I do so hope I'm right about you.

[Sakura Hana]

I think GCBC wound up defending you as wel

Nah he fence sitted until my wagon vanished.

[zMuffinMan]

Oh Muffin. I do so hope I'm right about you.

i'm town, but don't tell anyone - i want to see who else figures it out

[Titus]

If you are hellbent on being stupid, lynch me today. I cannot live in lylo due to people discrediting me. SAD is a horrible lynch. Prophy and Sakura are the onlycandidates I will tolerate. I want a scum lynch if I have to die trying, so be it. Lynch me or leave me be.

[Prophylaxis]

If you are hellbent on being stupid, lynch me today. I cannot live in lylo due to people discrediting me. SAD is a horrible lynch. Prophy and Sakura are the onlycandidates I will tolerate. I want a scum lynch if I have to die trying, so be it. Lynch me or leave me be.

Titus, engage with me.

Respond to my large-ish post where I dissected one of your posts. Repeating the same things over and over again is mind-numbing.

[Prophylaxis]

If you are hellbent on being stupid, lynch me today. I cannot live in lylo due to people discrediting me. SAD is a horrible lynch. Prophy and Sakura are the onlycandidates I will tolerate. I want a scum lynch if I have to die trying, so be it. Lynch me or leave me be.

Titus, engage with me.

Respond to my large-ish post where I dissected one of your posts. Repeating the same things over and over again is mind-numbing.