Mini 460 - Werewolves! Game over.

[Off the Mark]

vote: ibtuten

non-confirming is surely a scum tell

[Off the Mark]

vote: xyzzy

For pretending to take me seriously. It's a bit early for a bandwagon, don't you think?

[Off the Mark]

Well, we've heard from everyone except ibtuten/replacement. I don't know if our random votes are getting us anywhere. I certainly don't have any good leads yet. xyzzy's "pretending to take me seriously" ranks about a 2 on the 1-10 scumminess scale. Only other thing I see worth mentioning is that morik just happened to place a "random" vote for the poster just before him. Any other ideas?

[Off the Mark]

Heh sorry I didn't know about that "rule" - but that makes you the 3rd vote on me.

FOS: Panzerjager

[Off the Mark]

@xyzzy

Are you seriously trying to sell exposing power roles as pro-town strategy?

re-affirm

vote: xyzzy

This is shameless power role hunting. I think random bandwagoning is actually a good idea, but I

really

don't like xyzzy's explanation.

Also the way schismatized happily jumped on board with no questions asked makes me uneasy.

[Off the Mark]

Heh, well, there are 11 other people here to bandwagon... ha, j/k.

My point is xyzzy's last post was really scummy so why start a "random" bandwagon when we actually have suspicious behavior to focus on?

[Off the Mark]

Honestly, if he were scum I don't think either him or schismatized would be so blatant about bandwagoning someone so soon with the actual purpose of lynching.

That's what we call WIFOM. It's bad reasoning.

@schismatized - I am now at 4. If there are 3 people in the mafia, they could quicklynch me right now and Day 1 would end. Now this would be completely worth it if the rest of you could identify all of the quicklynchers as scum, but it's also easy for them to claim ignorance and say they were just trying to increase the pressure, etc etc... it gets a little risky when the bandwagon gets to 4 or 5.

[Off the Mark]

woops - mafia/werewolves, you get the idea

[Off the Mark]

We get people to claim, and once we find discrepancies, we lynch the offending parties.

This is not a pro-town strategy. I understand what you're trying to do, and it is not a bad idea, but it works a lot better if you find someone acting scummy and then force

them

to claim. Then you actually have a decent chance at finding a dishonest claim.

With your strategy of just picking people at random and making them claim, you are gonna go through 3 - 4 pro-town players before you stumble across a scum and you are just going to cause chaos and the revealing of power roles.

Random bandwagons are fine for starters if we have nothing else to go on, but I don't think we're at that point yet.

[Off the Mark]

because under pressure, scum players turn into flailing idiots.

Meh, I think that's only true if they are idiots to begin with. I still think your plan sucks, and I think you know it sucks. This is either bad town play or it is scummy.

[Off the Mark]

It'd be basically the same as mass claiming

[Off the Mark]

Why do you keep kissing up to xyzzy? Re-

FOS: Panzer

And schism seems to be following him like a puppydog too. I'm not sure what's going on here, but something stinks.

FOS: schismatized

[Off the Mark]

I've had bad luck with lynching newbs lately. Seems like they tend to look scummy even when they're not. I agree schism looks very suspicious, but xyzzy still looks scummy to me too, so I'm fine with keeping my vote there for now.

The fact that xyz is preaching the "no mercy for newbs" line is making him look much worse to me, by the way. We HAVE to take the newb-factor into account or else we end up lynching all our newbie-but-town early in the game and then we have little chance to win when we are down 4 townies (2 lynches, 2 NK's) and no mafia deaths.

[Off the Mark]

Kaleidoscope is very quick to jump on people for no good reason. Just making observations here.

[Off the Mark]

No. New players have exactly the same odds of being scum as anyone else. We should be giving everyone the same scrutiny. There is no "newb factor"; new players are just as likely as anyone to be scum.

The "newb factor" is not that they are less likely to be scum, it's that they are more likely to give off scum tells even when they are townies. You know this. Stop playing dumb.

[Off the Mark]

WTF - is that an "i give up" post? You are at lynch -2, not dead.

[Off the Mark]

It is also "horrible town play" to give up if you aren't scum. Therefore, you are looking really really scummy and hypocritical right now.

[Off the Mark]

Schis - let me help you out here. I think you are just newb town because I've seen these spectacular flameouts in several games lately. Now, there's no reason for you to take this so personally because you have to remember - at least some of the people attacking you are probably in the mafia. So of COURSE they are going to use things like bad logic and insults to attack you, because that is how they will WIN. So rather than getting all upset at the "horrible town play" that is going on here, figure out who is attacking you with bad logic and who is most likely scum. Then point out to everyone else HOW their attack is bad logic and give us your theory of their motivations and why they are scum. That is how the game is played.

Besides bad logic, another thing to watch for is people jumping on the bandwagon and trying to blend in. Now please stop the hissyfit and try to play the game, dude.

[Off the Mark]

LOL I thought my post would help people settle down and be rational. Guess not.

[Off the Mark]

For the record, I am most suspicious of: (in order)

xyzzy - for reasons already posted, plus some opportunistic behaviour lately
Kaleidoscope - very quick to attack with fishy reasoning
Panzerjager - buddying up to xyzzy, happy to bandwagon, and some behavior similar to Kscope
Korran - way too defensive and emotional

[Off the Mark]

You happily FOS'd AISleet and Korran for their recent posts, that's all. Taken on it's own, it may not mean much, but in addition to the anti-town arguments you were making earlier it adds to my suspicion of you.

[Off the Mark]

Just reading through again, and I have to ask this:

Also, i dont like that everyone is trying to make what i have done as "okay" because i am newb.

Do you WANT to be lynched or something? I just can't figure out why you'd say this.

[Off the Mark]

schism's last post was not ad Hominem at all

[Off the Mark]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]I'm getting the feeling this 'wagon is more running towards an ignorant townie then towards a scumlynch. Even though I'd feel happy with schis dead (in general), I don't think it's the way to play. Ergo,

Unvote

I think it's time to vote my secondary suspicion, who seemed to be all to happy to jump on the wagon just after I made my case.

Vote: AlSleet

.
[/quote]

Man, I hate when this happens. A player I am suspicious of suddenly posts something extremely reasonable and pro-town. I think I was wrong about Kaleidoscope.

Reading over the bandwagon again, AISleet as scum makes a lot of sense. He jumped on the bandwagon once it had a lot of momentum and he used the argument, "Even if he's town, he's hurting us and therefore he must die." I've seen this used frequently by scum because it allows them to immediately distance themselves from their own vote. Then when the innocent townie is lynched they can claim, "Well I admitted he was probably innocent, but he was hurting us."

I don't like that logic at all. We need to keep townies alive at all costs.

vote: AISleet

[Off the Mark]

Major FoS: OTM

Why, because I don't believe schism is scum? I have been burned by his type too many times and I don't want it to happen again. Although he STILL is not helping and he STILL looks incredibly scummy. I have to fight every instinct not to vote for the guy, but I am trying to learn from my previous games here.

[Off the Mark]

"A" for effort on that post, schism.

I don't buy all your reasoning, but it's not a bad little case you've got going there. I am also suspicious of Panzer because he now using the same argument as AISleet. Not ready to change my vote, though.

[Off the Mark]

Heh, I don't know if I can agree that doing a PBPA of schism was all that worthwhile, Panzer. I think we all have an accurate impression of his play so far.

FoS = Finger of Suspicion, it's an "official" way of saying you think someone looks scummy without voting for them

[Off the Mark]

Why else would he go out of his way to defend someone who plays so ludicrously?[/b]

I've explained this several times. In my last two games, I got burned lynching players who were playing terribly and they turned up as town, and schism has fit this "mold" exactly so far. Emotional, bad arguments, suspicious of everybody, etc. To tell you the truth, I wouldn't mind if he was the lynch for today. I think he's earned it. It's entirely possible that he is newb scum rather than newb town. But in my last two games I led the bandwagon for these bad-playing newbs and it put us in a difficult spot when they both came up town after the Day 1 lynch. So I can't be a part of it again. I'm not trying to post a defense of schism, as he is pretty much indefensible, but I will stay on the sidelines if he is the lynch.

I would link to these games so you could see, but they are both still ongoing so I don't think that is kosher. Do a search, you should find them easily enough.

[Off the Mark]

whop cares what others think just vote him if you want to.

And I was being nice to you qman.I've made my vote and I'm waiting for the lynch.

OK now I know Korran is new too but these are some seriously scummy posts that I can't overlook. You seem to be rushing the lynch to end the day. And then you play the newb card:

I have no clue what I'm doing.I'm 12

I think Korran sees that schism is getting a free pass (from me at least) because of his newbish behavior and now he is trying to say, "Hey I'm newb too!" Very suspicious to me.

I don't know, maybe I'm jumping at shadows here, what does everyone else think?

[Off the Mark]

xyz - so what's your conclusion/summary of AISleet? Your opinion is as valuable to me as your PBPA. (Because it gives us info about you as well)

Scum can slide by quite easily by doing PBPA's to look like they are doing lots of pro-town work. But we need opinions here to base things on once the facts start coming in.

[Off the Mark]

haha and panzer calls me an idiot lol... dude do i really have to say im sorry for you to start playing smart? because it looks like thats what you want. wait what grade is this?

too bad yr town

.

OK here we go again... how do you know this? Whenever someone states an opinion with this much conviction early in the game my scumdar goes nuts. Schism, what's the deal?

[Off the Mark]

Yes, I do think he is scum, but I personally like to see what everyone else has to say before placing a definitive vote.

Worrying about what everyone else thinks about your vote is pretty scummy, AISleet. I like to seek other's opinions sometimes too, but not when I am convinced someone is scum.

[Off the Mark]

OTM attacks K-Scope randomly, why?

I assume you are referring to post 91 - it was a valid observation at the time. Kscope had FOS'd Panzer for being "too random" and me for being "FOS happy". These are lousy reasons. (and not even true, in my case - I voted xyzzy early because I saw some scumminess and that's where my suspicion stayed for a while - still quite suspicious of him, actually but I think AISleet is the better lynch. They could easily both be scum.)

Also, I thought his first attack of AISleet (for having the same suspicions as Kscope) was uncalled for, but with AISleet's later behavior, now I think maybe he was on the right track.

OTM buddies up to K-scope in order to jump on the newfound AlSleet wagon.

OK if that's the way you want to see it, fine. I agreed with Kscope's suspicion of AISleet. I was only the 2nd person to vote him I think, hardly a bandwagon. But think what you want.

[Off the Mark]

DS, i don't think after making an attack on someone you can say no to a deadline for the reason of having new players.

Huh?? Can you expand on this? We don't want a deadline right now, I agree with DS 100%. We need more discussion, especially with the new players.

[Off the Mark]

I bolded the part that stood out for me OTM. Joining the wagon wasnt an issue really, AlSleet certainly deserved some voting at that point. For me somehow, doing an analysis and stating that you think someone is town is alignment null, but when phrased as you did, it rubs me the wrong way. It felt too "friendly".
As I said, these are first impressions of a suspicious mind.

Fair enough, I just call 'em as I see 'em. I meant it more as "jokey" than "friendly". I guess I don't worry about looking suspicious much because only scum have real reason to worry about that, it seems to me.

If I am suspected, then the bandwagon gives us another chance to get info and that is good.

[Off the Mark]

When I say "jokey" it does not mean that I meant the opposite of what I said. I really did mean it. I was just making fun of my own reversing of suspicion on him, that's all.

[Off the Mark]

I am not going to waste my time doing a PBPA of schis's drivel. It's already been done, and I don't think we're going to get any more juice out of squeezing that lemon. Panzer is a good idea to analyze though. I'll see what Kscope comes up with after his reread and then I'll do my own PBPA of Panzer.

[Off the Mark]

OK, I'm not getting much out of trying to dissect the Kscope, DeathSauce, Panzer, Ecto fight here. All I know is DeathSauce and Ecto seem pretty aggressive and touchy and I would not be surprised at all if one of them is scum. Highly doubt both of them are scum though.

[Off the Mark]

Hrmm, I neglected to

unvote Deathsauce

last post. The answer was sufficient enough for me to put DS on my backburner.
I think I've given AlSleet enough rope now. Anyone else notice how he went straight into lurker mode once I shifted the heat?

I believe this is L-2

vote AlSleet

Whoah, this post is

really

giving me bad vibes. You suddenly switched gears here, Ecto. Please explain why you are more suspicious of AISleet than DeathSauce all of a sudden?! Just for lurking? This seems sooo suspicious to me to attack one player voraciously for two pages and then all of a sudden unvote and leap onto the most convenient bandwagon. Please explain your actions, or I am going to have to change my vote.

FOS: Ectomancer

[Off the Mark]

Panzer, let Ecto defend himself.

[Off the Mark]

I will accept that for now, but I am interested in seeing your further explanation. I had forgotten you had expressed any suspicion on AISleet, so it came out of nowhere from my perspective. Still don't like it much, so IGMEOY.

As far as Schis goes, I still think it is possible he is scum, but he is such a newb, it seems like lynching him would just give us a slightly-better-than-random chance at finding scum. That's my read on him, anyway.

[Off the Mark]

You're forgetting that I'm also a n00b. Newer than schism even. I think there's a bit of a double standard here with me and schism and it really pisses me off. I noticed this trend with Off the Mark especially. I'm not trying to play the n00b card here

Oh yes you are!! This is the scummiest post I've seen from you yet. You have no opinion on the arguments going around with Ecto/Deathsauce/Kscope/Panzer/me? You don't appear to be doing any scumhunting at all, you are only concerned with defending yourself. This is exactly how scum behave and I am sticking with you as my vote for lynch today.

[Off the Mark]

I don't think it is bad for you to defend yourself, but it is bad to ignore pages of discussion and continue to

only

defend yourself. Ah yes, I had forgotten about your "OTM and schis are a scum pair" theory. You still believe this, even though I said he could very well be scum?

[Off the Mark]

I'm confused. Where/what did schis claim? I thought he just said he was townie.

[Off the Mark]

I think it's probably true, but I wouldn't bet anything significant on it.

[Off the Mark]

he has been laying low every since the suspicion shifted from him to AlSleet. I Believe he is scum.

This is a very good point. That is hard to explain. He went from 20 posts per day to hardly ever posting once his bandwagon died out.

[Off the Mark]

I'm still getting a bad vibe from Ecto's posts. I went back and did a reread and I have a theory --

Ecto replaces into the game as scum. He immediately sees that one of his scumbuddies, AISleet, is on the verge of getting lynched. So he casually mentions that he is also suspicious of AISleet but he wants to do more analysis before casting a vote.

Then DeathSauce comes along and attacks AISleet pretty aggressively. Ecto then attacks DeathSauce and places a vote on him. This could be Ecto trying to get a new bandwagon started here, and trying to swing the suspicion away from AISleet.

After a few pages of bickering, Ecto decides it isn't going to work and then he decides that his safest course of action is to join the AISleet bandwagon so that when AISleet comes up scum, Ecto won't look like he was defending him all the way to the end.

I realize this theory has several assumptions (it assumes DeathSauce is town, for one thing) and the evidence is circumstancial at best. But I think it fits Ecto's actions, which I find tough to explain otherwise.

[Off the Mark]

OTM, you're right, you make several assumptions. First is that AlSleet is scum (where did we prove that he was again?),

Yup that's another assumption I'm making. I am voting for him after all, and I do believe he is scum. You seem all over the place on that, though. Is he scum or isn't he? What do you think?

and second is that if I were his scumbuddy, that I would bother trying to save someone who got his head in the noose before I even got here. Why not just take the bus that was just sitting there waiting?

WIFOM

Could I get you to explain exactly which actions you find "tough to explain". That final sentence just capped off a fairly suspect post. You start with the "bad vibe" comment, then go into, not a case, but a theory you built, based upon several weak assumptions, and then end it all with the "tough to explain" comment concerning some ill-defined "actions".

Agreed, it's not a strong theory, but it does explain your actions. Your actions are tough to explain because you started off with a softball accusation of AISleet... then pounced on DeathSauce, then suddenly gave up on him and voted for AISleet. Tough to explain.

By the way OTM, I have a question for you as well. Your latest post seemed to seriously imply that you believe AlSleet to be scum pretty strongly. So then, where were you exactly on that wagon? Why did it take my vote on AlSleet to bring it back to your attention?

Huh? I've been on AISleet from way back when the wagon started and I've only become more and more convinced that he's scum. This is totally false.

You seemed to have forgotten about it until that point. Why the shift to me then if AlSleet seems so guilty?

Am I only allowed to think about one player at a time? I was just trying to figure you out, and I figured that this makes sense if you're both scum.

[Off the Mark]

2 things OTM: 1, you characterize my attack on DeathSauce as "pouncing", yet you do not address the issue at hand itself. DeathSauce deserved to be grilled over his defense and subsequent answers. Or do you deny this?

I agree, DeathSauce was quite aggressive, and I made note of it. But your "pouncing" on him was also aggressive. I thought it was good that he was questioned but your reaction made you seem scummy too.

2nd - during my exchange with DeathSauce, your push on AlSleet was indeed, non-existant. Once I voted for him, you questioned me, I explained, so you then launched another attack on AlSleet. Then, as I said before, the AlSleet wagon lagged. Theopor slipped off of it. And then you shifted to me. That's how I see it personally.

I don't understand this at all. There was nothing new to discuss in regard to AISleet, as far as I can remember. I wasn't posting much at the time, I was simply very interested in how you and DeathSauce were responding to each other. Should I be constantly posting "Let's lynch AISleet NOW!!!" because that is dumb.

Tell me your airtight theory again. I'd like to see it in cliff's notes.

Are you serious? Post 377 too long for you?

[Off the Mark]

No need for personal insults. AISleet seemed scummy to me for:

1) Jumping on the schis bandwagon with very little comment
2) Using the argument, "Even if he's a townie, he's hurting the town."
3) Attempting to suddenly shift focus to the lurkers in an effort to appear pro-town once a little suspicion was on him
4) Playing the newb card and saying (paraphrased) "You guys think schis is innocent but I am newb too. No fair!"
5) Failure to scumhunt other than saying he thinks schism and I are scum together, which I find a bit silly.
6) Lurking when the focus is off him

[Off the Mark]

I feel really good about Ecto though. I also feel relatively good about DS. Less so on K-Scope.

I was just doing a reread of the last few pages and I came across this. Have your feelings changed at all, Panzer?

I was just a little surprised by it because I would completely reverse your order of suspicion, from my perspective.

Makes me more suspicious of you, Panzer... but it seems I am suspicious of everybody. Seriously, almost everyone is giving me scum vibes. Every time I reread, I still get scum feelings from xyzzy. It's like he's lurking most of the time but jumping in just enough to post little criticisms of people's comments, without doing any scumhunting of his own.

After AISleet, xyzzy is 2nd on my FOS list. And Ecto is up there too, probably in the #3 position.

[Off the Mark]

You guys are starting to convince me on schis... especially since he keeps lurking. I'm still feeling better about an AISleet lynch though, overall.

[Off the Mark]

Heh OK, but I already said I had no problem with a schis lynch today - he certainly deserves it. I'm just sticking by the fact that the newb vibe I've gotten from him is stronger than the scum vibe.

[Off the Mark]

Hey

mod

, can we get a votecount? And AISleet and schism, it'd be nice if you guys would defend yourselves. By hanging around and saying nothing, hoping the other guy ends up with more votes, you both look kinda scummy.

Whoever is in the lead, (AISleet, I think) you should probably claim with a few days to spare so we have time to evaluate. If it's a solid claim, then I will definitely change my vote, since we really don't have any hard evidence here.

[Off the Mark]

^^^ something about your tone cries out SCUM to me almost every time you post, Ecto. You seem to be very confident that you know exactly what's what, and that makes me uneasy. I am now more suspicious of you than I am of AISleet, due to this post (415) and post 398, where you talked down to Panzer in the exact same manner. It might be stupid to try to start up a new bandwagon now, but I feel I have to vote for who I find scummiest.

unvote:
vote: Ectomancer

[Off the Mark]

Scum make a lot of pro-town posts. They have to, to blend in. It's not his content I am objecting to, it's the vibe I get that he knows too much.

[Off the Mark]

Suspecting me isn't making you look any better to me, Ecto.

As I said earlier, I'm just trying to do the right thing with my vote. I knew my change at this late stage would look a little suspicious but I can't ignore Ecto's scumminess any longer.

You seem to be trying very hard to read into my posts with a scummy undertone, but those are simply my feelings. You can make anyone seem suspicious if you assume they are scum

before

you read their posts.

[Off the Mark]

Oh yeah, and OMGUS much?

[Off the Mark]

You are beginning to beat an EctoScum drum and your best argument is that you dont like my tone. Now THAT would qualify as an OMGUS.

Nope, I had plenty of reasons for thinking you were scummy already, which we debated about 3 pages ago. Nice strawman though. Your "tone" which was really "acts like he knows too much" was just the final straw.

[Off the Mark]

Strawman = mischaracterizing someone else's argument and then defeating it.

[Off the Mark]

Welcome Gatorguy! I'm very interested in what a fresh pair of eyes thinks of this game so far.

This deadline hasn't helped us generate too much discussion. Maybe some new blood will stir things up a bit. We need more discussion to analyze before day's end, everybody. Qman and bethelmark, it would be nice to hear from you guys again, as I thought the little analysis you have provided has been pretty solid.

[Off the Mark]

No one else thinks Ecto is scummy? Curious what others think of the discussion - anyone getting the same feel I am from his posts?

My main beef with him is how his suspicion went back and forth between AISleet and Deathsauce. Maybe he is bussing AISleet or maybe he just wants to get on the popular bandwagon. This plus his know-it-all vibe make me suspect him.

[Off the Mark]

You're right AISleet, I didn't address Ecto's accusations properly. I'll do that now:

As for scummy moves, you have your own to explain OTM. (Though Im still at a loss as to how Im supposed to explain my "tone").

First he is hoping to slide off the AlSleet wagon, so he feels it out. Xyzzy quickly calls him out on it though.

I wasn't "feeling out" sliding off the AISleet wagon at all. I have been feeling that maybe I was wrong about schis. You are only making this accusation because I voted for you later, it's like a retroactive OMGUS. I've actually been considering moving my vote back to AISleet because I think that is better than a schis lynch. But maybe I'm wrong about schis, so I'm standing pat for now.

So then he switches tactics and tries to get a claim.

Yes, if someone is about to be lynched, I want them to claim so we can properly evaluate/discuss. What's wrong with that?

But AlSleet isn't having it.

I won't claim 'til absolutely necessary.

Well, he cant get on the Schis wagon, he's getting no where with his ride on the AlSleet wagon, so what else is there to do but start your own?

It's good AISleet didn't claim since he is not on the line here. I didn't know the actual vote count at the time of my post. Not sure what you mean by "I'm getting nowhere with my ride on the AISleet bandwagon"? What is that supposed to mean? If I was scum, why not just stand pat? I voted for you because you continued acting scummy. I took the risk of looking slightly suspicious in order to change my vote to the player I feel is the best lynch for today, which is Ecto. I don't think that move makes sense for a scum, but now I am venturing into WIFOM territory.

[Off the Mark]

I still think you are likely scum, AISleet. Don't think my change means I think you are town now. But Ecto has been the most opportunistic in my view, so that's who I'm voting for.

[Off the Mark]

Ecto - you have to remember that I thought AISleet was in the lead at the time of my requesting a claim. When I said "What's wrong with that?" I meant from the perspective of thinking AISleet was on the verge of getting lynched. When I said "It's good he didn't claim" it's from the perspective of knowing the true vote count.

Basically, I didn't think the AISleet wagon was losing steam when I got off it. Your posts were the reason I changed, not any kind of concerns about which wagon I was on. And looking back, in fact, AISleet was tied with schis when I switched my vote. <--- Obviously, since I had to look back to check that, it was not a contributing factor to my vote switch.

I am still considering switching my vote back to AISleet, if it will make a difference at the deadline.

[Off the Mark]

Where is schis anyway? We really need to hear from him.

[Off the Mark]

Hmmm, something about the way you worded that makes me distrust your claim, AISleet. Being overly townie will never get you lynched.

As long as there is no counterclaim, you probably aren't the best lynch for today though, so I'm glad I'm not voting for you.

However, it's pretty much impossible to prove that you are actually a vigilante. If you're scum, you could easily fake vig night kills, as long as the town doesn't ask you to kill another scum. Also, you could be an SK, and there's no way we could tell. Also, it depends on the setup, but I have seen games where vigs come up guilty on investigation, but if you were to come up innocent, I suppose that would be proof. Of course, that requires a claimed cop who is sane.

I am leaning towards SK on you, actually. In my last game, a player claimed vig early and turned out to be the SK.

[Off the Mark]

I don't believe in vigs.

Really? Could you explain this more? Do you mean you don't believe in claimed vigs or vigs in general? Seems like they could be pretty useful to the town, if used correctly.

[Off the Mark]

First off, it will be fairly easy to confirm that he has a nightkill role. We can confirm that he is a Vig/SK. We ask him to kill someone, they die.

I agree, we need to consider using him in this way. That's why I said he is not the best lynch for today.

BUT you have to consider the possibility that if he is scum, and we tell him to kill someone, the mafia goes ahead and kills that player. Maybe the real vig/sk kills another player (if we have one, or both, since we know nothing about the setup at this point), maybe not, but either way, there's no way to confirm that AISleet's kill will be the one that was done by vig/SK.

Also I don't think we want to take any chance of leaving the SK alive in the endgame. That gives mafia the chance to claim SK and really make the endgame messy.

[Off the Mark]

If I was scum, there would only be one nightkill. Unless of course the doctor protected who I go after.

Huh? So you don't believe there are any other killing parties? There could be 1, 2, or even 3 kills. Scum, SK, and vig. The number of kills and your guilt/innocence have nothing to do with each other. If you're scum, the scum kill will be your kill. If you're not, then the vig or SK kill will be yours. We won't be able to tell.

I guess you'll just have to trust me. You can either sacrifice the opportunity for practically another kill for the town from me, or you can kill me and risk losing a powerful town role.

Appeal to emotion, big time. I am feeling less good about your claim after this post. Wait a minute... this is a werewolves game. What is the vig equivalent in a Werewolf game? Is it still called "vigilante"? Are vigs common in werewolf games?

[Off the Mark]

Gatorguy, you've given us less analysis than Korran, which I thought was impossible. Can you explain why you are voting for me?

I don't think we should lynch AISleet today. I think that although there is no way to PROVE his claim easily, we can certainly see who ends up dead and make a more informed decision later.

I think AISleet has about a 50/40/10 chance of being SK/Vig/Mafia. So, yes, I also believe he has a solo-nightkill role. I was just trying to explore every possibility and perhaps that made me look scummy to you?

[Off the Mark]

FOS: Panzer

for hammering and for proposing that there is a mafia roleblocker in a normal mini - wtf?

FOS: DeathSauce

for being waaaayyy too quick to vote AISleet without discussion and then quickly backing off when he realized it was making him look suspicious.

Now we have to figure out - what is AISleet? I doubt he is lying town, because that just seems stupid, and his response "Hey! I sent in my choice!" seemed legit. So he was blocked somehow, which means a doc protected Qman or Qman has a special role. We definitely don't want a doc to claim at this point. We could pressure Qman into a claim, but I have to disagree with AISleet here that Qman's behavior was scummy on Day 1. In fact, it seems more likely to me that AISleet used Qman's "lurking" as a convenient excuse so he could kill Qman and then say "well, he was lurking, so I thought he was scum."

It would have been nice if you could've posted your kill choice in Day 1 like you said you would, AISleet. I am still leaning towards SK for AISleet's role, because I just don't buy the argument that Qman looked the scummiest to him. I think he thought Qman was a "safe" kill, due to the lurking, rather than a scummy kill.

[Off the Mark]

Just realized - AISleet could be scum who expected there to be another nightkill, in addition to his xyzzy kill. Then when xyzzy was the only kill, he had to act like his kill didn't go through. Seems pretty clever, but it is a possibility.

I still think the chance that AISleet is scum is pretty minimal.

[Off the Mark]

Mafia roleblockers in mini games? Seriously? I guess I just haven't come across those yet.

I'll poke around a little, but

FOS Panzer and Kscope

if you are lying to me.

[Off the Mark]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]We know, eh Panzer :: wink :: :: wink ::

[/quote]

Huh?? What does this mean? My scummy sense is tingling.

[Off the Mark]

Duh yourself. I know it's sarcasm, but it seemed you were comfortable with the connection between you and Panzer, which made me uneasy.

[Off the Mark]

I targeted Qman. Sorry, Qman.

This just caught my attention while re-reading: AISleet, why are you apologizing to someone whom you claim to believe is scummy?

This

really

makes me think you are SK and not vigilante. I would not be surprised if a town roleblocker blocked you.

Also, your jump to the "use me to get another lynch" suggestion seems like you are desperate to prove yourself to town. Seems a little paranoid, which I would not expect for a real vig at this point, when there is very little pressure on you.

[Off the Mark]

First Of all, I was the only one who made any significant case on Schism. So give it up if your trying to get me lynched for hammering schism aka Anal Sex.

Yeah, but why did you feel the need to hammer with the deadline only hours away? We could have at least given him the chance to respond before getting lynched, and it would have given AISleet a chance to state his target too. Seemed like an unnecessary premature hammer to me.

[Off the Mark]

It was facetious anyway.

You just admitted to acting fake.

[Off the Mark]

Sorry man, I am a details guy. It could be nothing, but it struck me as odd.

[Off the Mark]

Alsleet why Qman?

Man, I'm fighting answering that myself, It'd be stupid to do.

Why would it be stupid? Self-analysis can be very useful. It's only stupid if you're scum.

[Off the Mark]

still waiting for Qman's answer, I guess

[Off the Mark]

^^^ very interesting. I count that as more evidence that AISleet is in fact an SK.

[Off the Mark]

DS - maybe that would have been too obvious. I can see both sides, though.

[Off the Mark]

Gator - why do you keep trying to lynch me? For no reason whatsoever that I can see? Please present a case, so I can at least defend myself.

[Off the Mark]

Panzer - please answer my question from post 253.

[Off the Mark]

woops, I don't know where I got that post number. Post 513 is what I meant, Panzer.

[Off the Mark]

I think an AISleet or DeathSauce lynch would give us the most info. Or Panzer, depending on how he answers the questions about his hammer. I'm still a little leery of Ecto, but he's been giving me town vibes lately. Whether this is scum cleaning up his act since I voted him yesterday, or just me mistakenly going after a townie who seemed too confident on day 1, I am not sure.

[Off the Mark]

Panzer continues to ignore my questions, I can only conclude that he has no good answers for why he hammered schis -

vote: Panzerjager

[Off the Mark]

My question wasn't about why did you hammer, it was more about the timing? You hammered without letting schis respond (which he probably wasn't going to, I'll give you that one) and also you didn't give AISleet a chance to declare a target.

That's my beef with your hammer.

Deathsauce, your last post was seriously scummy. Especially this part:

Since schis came up town, I guess that means I'm automatically town?

I know you were playing that off like a joke, but either joking or not, it gives me serious scum vibes.

[Off the Mark]

I just wanted to make sure the guy he claims he's going to kill actually dies. Since we had the whole doctor/roleblocker mystery, this whole discussion is pretty pointless. But if there had been two kills, one by scum and one by SK, then AISleet-as-scum could have taken credit for either one and the SK would be a fool to counterclaim. That's why I wanted him to pick a target ahead of time... less guessing on Day 2. We'd at least narrow down the possibilities.

[Off the Mark]

Interesting, Blight. We see things really differently... Ecto's stance on AISleet was one of the few things that I thought made him look pro-town to me. His switch from voting DeathSauce to AISleet is what made me think he was scummy. (this was before AI's claim, of course) I still think it very unlikely we have a mafia roleblocker or mafia doctor. Like you said, that seems weird for a werewolf-themed game.

I do agree with you on DeathSauce though. He seemed way opportunistic in his pushing for AISleet's lynch on days 1 and beginning of day 2. I still think DeathSauce is a good lynch for today. Or AISleet, but I think we could try to use him to kill scum for one more night. I think he's much more likely to be SK, but he'll still kill who we say, or else we'll lynch him.

Assuming there's no mafia roleblocker, the scum definitely do not want to keep AISleet alive, and I think it's a little scummy, or maybe just shortsighted, of you to suggest that. AISleet has the capability of essentially giving the town an extra lynch every day. Even if he is SK, we gotta take a couple shots with him, because lynches are so valuable. The scum will probably get rid of him soon enough, and if not, we'll lynch him before endgame.

Reading your thoughts on Gatorguy made me wonder if he could be some kind of post-restricted role, but Korran didn't seem to have any restriction that I can see. Seems unlikely for a "normal" game too.

[Off the Mark]

Assuming there's no mafia roleblocker, the scum definitely do not want to keep AISleet alive, and I think it's a little scummy, or maybe just shortsighted, of you to suggest that. AISleet has the capability of essentially giving the town an extra lynch every day. Even if he is SK, we gotta take a couple shots with him, because lynches are so valuable. The scum will probably get rid of him soon enough, and if not, we'll lynch him before endgame.

If they wanted AlSleet dead, why didn't they kill him at night? I agree that AlSleet could give us an extra lynch, but he could also give the mafia an extra kill. And, I still don't think it's a good idea for AlSleet to call his kills. If he does, the mafia could target the same guy and make it so that there was only one kill that night. What happens if there's only one kill? Fingers point at AlSleet for lying, giving the scum another easy lynch target.

I think general consensus in the town at this point is that AISleet is either SK/vig and NOT mafia. I am convinced anyway. Mafia is still possible, but AISleet's reaction ("Hey! I sent in my night choice!") makes me believe he has a night kill.

[Off the Mark]

Not a bad idea, Ecto, but do SK's usually get a no-kill option? I thought they had to kill every night.

[Off the Mark]

mod

can we get some prods going here? We have a serious lurker problem.

I'm a little miffed that theo was replaced actually, as I never got much of a read on him either way. I could see theo/Blight as scum based on his AISleet ideas, but right now I think we need to pressure the lurkers into sharing more info.

unvote:, vote: bethelmark

[Off the Mark]

Although I understand that it was a stupid oversight, I honestly completely forgot about special roles at that point. I was suspicious of Al at the end of D1 and when I saw only one NK it was mere gut reaction to say he must have been lying.

It's not the doc protection oversight that bugs me, it's how you were pushing so hard against him on Day 1 that bugs me. Even after his claim, you kept saying you thought he was scum. Even now, you still keep pushing the idea that he could be scum, and I just don't see that as likely at all. AISleet would have to be pretty quick on his feet to see there was only 1 nightkill and then give a believable response AND claim to have targeted Qman.

Here's an idea: if we have a doc, who protected anyone OTHER than Qman, you need to speak up, because that will reveal AISleet as scum. It's worth exposing a power role to nail scum, in my book.

Wait, it could be a roleblocker too, who blocked AI, so forget that idea. I don't think we want to expose two power roles, even if AISleet is scum. (which I still find extremely unlikely)

I am still most suspicious of Kaleidoscope, but OTM is climbing the list.

This reeks of OMGUS. Got any reasons besides the fact that you are my #1 suspect?

[Off the Mark]

OK, fair enough, Kscope has seemed pro-town to me, because I agree with many of his suspicions.

Of those 3 quotes you posted, the first two were before AI's claim, and I was quite suspicious of him then. The third quote was my reaction to his claim, and I still agree with it. I think he is the SK.

Your misuse of my quotes makes me more sure that you are scum.

unvote: vote: DeathSauce

[Off the Mark]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]I don't really think Deathsauce is the play for today. His play reeks typical "Those who attack me must be scum, because I'm town". So far, he bassicly suspected those who suspected him first.[/quote]

Yes, but typical for scum, isn't it? Maybe it's just me, but I think resorting to OMGUS as your primary means of determining who is suspicious late in the game is very scummy.

[Off the Mark]

You think Al is the SK and you vote for me? Forgive me if that seems bizarre.

The key word there is "think". If I knew he was the SK for sure, I'd be voting for him. But at this point, I think letting him take one more shot is good for the town.

[Off the Mark]

Wow, you attack me for "mis-using" your quotes, but then completely miscategorize my suspicions as OMGUS.

I was only referring to your "OTM is moving up the list" comment when I said that. You're right, your suspicion of Kscope is not OMGUS. I guess I mischaracterized you when I said you were only resorting to OMGUS attacks.

Regardless, I still find you quite scummy.

[Off the Mark]

I think letting him take one more shot is good for the town.

Really? What if he's wrong? How is a dead townie good for the town? What precisely about Al's posting history makes you feel he is somehow incredibly able to determine who is scum?

Maybe you're right... can't say I trust him too much after he went after Qman. It would be nice to hear a little more from Qman.

Lynches are valuable, though, and there's still a decent chance he's a pro-town vig.

[Off the Mark]

I'm not pushing AlSleet's lynch. I'm pushing

yours

. I question

why

you pushed to keep him around past day 1, knowing, based on AlSleet's vote on Schis, that AlSleet was reckless with his kill decisions. I question you suggesting that he make a kill to prove his vigilanteism. I question your reasons for voting for Schis. To me, you look more scummy than anyone else here.

This post is really making me think. Blight seems pretty sincere. But I cannot imagine right now that DeathSauce and Ecto are both scum, and I have read over the huge DeathSauce vs. Ecto fight that happened on Day 1 a couple times. The thing is, they BOTH look kinda scummy throughout, mainly because of overaggressiveness - jumping on every little thing the other one says to continue the argument. Initially, I was leaning towards Ecto as the scummier of the two, but now that I know his posting style a little better, (basically he just sounds like a confident prick most of the time) DeathSauce looks scummier to me. I encourage everyone to read from the time DeathSauce replaced into the game to the end of Day 1 and see if you agree with my thoughts.

Summary: I believe that DeathSauce is scum. I also believe that DeathSauce and Ecto cannot be scum together. Ecto looks somewhat scummy too though. If DeathSauce was not scum, I would be convinced that Ecto is.

[Off the Mark]

DeathSauce, what was the other "False Dilemma"?

[Off the Mark]

You're busted, dude. You slipped up when you called AISleet vs. Schism a "false dilemma". (thank you for acknowledging that I wasn't the one pushing it, but still, you are busted)

The only way you would call that a "false dilemma" is if you knew for sure that AISleet is not scum. But you just recently posted this!!

I am not at all convinced that Al is not a werewolf, I am very much on the fence about him.

If you honestly believed that quote, there is no way possible that it would occur to you to call AISleet vs. Schism a "false dilemma". Your quote is a lie, therefore you are scum.

[Off the Mark]

Hmmmm ok... I thought you meant "false" as in two options where neither of them are the right choice.

I am not asking people to choose between you and Ecto. I don't expect the town to follow my lead. I'm just explaining why I don't currently find Ecto suspicious because I find you MORE suspicious. Capiche?

[Off the Mark]

What's everyone think about lynching one and,

if and only if

that person turns out to be townie, have AlSleet kill the other? I know I was against AlSleet making random kills, but I don't think this would be a random kill as both men are top suspects.

I think this is a good plan. I believe one of them is scum, and this plan will take care of the scum, with the worse case scenario being we trade a townie life for scum, which is totally worth it.

The only thing that makes me a little hesitant is that Blight was quick to seize upon my idea that one of these guys is scum, and it makes me worry that Blight is scum who knows that they are both town. If we kill off two townies tonight and scum gets a kill too, that's most likely game over.

Examining Ecto and DS again, though, I find it unlikely that they are both town. I still think DeathSauce is the best lynch. Blight, you are correct that Ecto vs. DS was started by Ecto, but he was responding to DS's aggressive attack on AISleet. It's part of the reason I thought Ecto and AI could be scum together. Now that AI is unlikely to be scum, it makes DS looks worse and Ecto look better when I look back at the discussion.

[Off the Mark]

Holy crap, I cant believe the size of your balls. You do a 180 degree turn around on AlSleet from calling him today's lynch, to now you're willing to not only keep him around,

but you think you can call his kill too all on your own???

fos OTM

I cant believe you are going along with that tripe. I'll certainly be wondering about a scumbuddy when Blight turns up scum.

I don't think he's calling the kill all on his own. He explicitly asked the town what we thought of the idea. Also, I think at some point during the discussion Blight agreed that AI was probably vig/sk and not scum.

Going along with this idea is risking everything on Blight's towniness though, and I never got a townie vibe from theo, so I am curious to hear everyone else's opinions on the plan. (of course DS and Ecto aren't going to like it, I'm more interested in the rest of you)

[Off the Mark]

Well, I think it's a shitty plan. How about this plan, since OTM and I have been vocal opponents for the past three pages, kill the two of us? And then when OTM comes up scum, lynch his scumbuddy K-Scope.

That's an idea, but I don't think it's a good one, because I can imagine the possibility where you are just a scummy-playing townie and Ecto is scum. I find it more difficult to imagine that both of you are scummy-playing townies. And I know I'm not scum. So if we go through with your plan and that is the situation, town loses after you and I are killed and we let Ecto go scot free.

[Off the Mark]

And finally OTM is voting me due to an extended OMGUS after I said he was climbing my suspicion list.

WHAT!?! You are beyond ridiculous. Here's what happened:

I was suspicious of you ever since you continued pushing for AISleet on the beginning of Day 2.

THEN you made the "climbing the list" comment.

I

accused

you

of using OMGUS to make that comment.

Now do you see why that comment was ridiculous? I am sooo convinced you are scum. You can't keep your stories straight!

[Off the Mark]

I was pressuring bethelmark to get him to post. Now it looks like he's being replaced.

While I was waiting for him, my suspicion of you was increased by your "logic", so I voted for you.

AISleet, my opinions are hollow echos of others, what? Are we reading the same game?

[Off the Mark]

You inherit the actions of your predecessor when you replace in. Arguing that you personally never voted for him is pointless.

Agreed, although Blight might not share theo's personal feelings, the vote still stands as evidence on Blight, and I think it is scummy for Blight to dismiss it. Point in Ecto's favor here.

Have we seen any suspicions voiced about DS from Blight?
No.

Actually, Blight named DS as one of his top suspects in his first analysis post. Point against Ecto for not reading carefully here.

[Off the Mark]

Welcome, Numenorean. I don't envy you the task of reading through this entire game. Best of luck, enjoy the Schis madness back in Day 1.

[Off the Mark]

You have a very loose definition of "stating suspicions" OTM.

DeathSauce. Was this scum trying to get an early lynch for day 2, or was he just a plain townie not really thinking things through? Normally, a role-blocker wouldn't come to mind. In fact, I don't think anyone mentioned a role-blocker in day 1 (although I could be mistaken). But, an obvious role that comes to mind is the doctor. Even if DeathSauce was being a little over-eager, shouldn't he have at least thought of a doctor?

You're right, it's a rhetorical question, but I thought the obvious point of the rhetorical question was "this is suspicious behavior". Rhetorical questions are rhetorical because the answer is already known. It's not just a question, it's a question where the answer is obvious.

[Off the Mark]

Only if the rhetorical question doesn't contain the conjunction "or". If there is an obvious answer, it's that he's either scum or he's town. So is everyone else.

Your interpretation is different from mine, and I'll leave it at that.

[Off the Mark]

^^^ overall, I am leaning more towards Blight's side of this little brew-ha-ha between Ecto and Blight, but Ecto does occasionally have a good point, like this one:

Seriously though, you can tell me that your total flip flop from calling AlSleet today's lynch and saying that calling his kill is scummy, to supporting keeping him around and calling his kill are not completely contradictory ideas?

That was a pretty big shift in opinion for Blight. Care to share more specifically what changed your mind about AISleet, Blight?

[Off the Mark]

IMO, I think K-Scope gave too much away already. And if K-scope is right about you, it doesn't mean anything other then he's cop. Half of me almost thinks it is now mandatory to lynch him, because he is an advantage either way.

Huh? Why would we lynch a player who is hinting at cop? And K-scope WHY are you hinting at being a cop when there is no pressure on you? That's not helping us at all. Blight was not in any danger of being lynched, I didn't think. Unless you're hinting mason? Nevermind, I don't want to dig any further at this point. I'm just very confused by Kscope's recent postings.

Blight being town, gives doc someone to protect and we can try to vote on who the cops target will be.

You think the doc should protect Blight? First of all, the LAST thing we want is to discuss who the doc should protect in the thread, unless it is an obvious choice, like a claimed cop. Secondly, I would think a doc would protect Kscope rather than Blight, but whatever.

But this poses a problem because not only does AlSleet ,if vig, is an easy kill, and there might be a mafia roleblocker(still not ruling it out) not a doc. Also the voting poses a problem. Anyway, if blight is town we have our lynch for tomorrow in the guy who hinted cop.

I'm still very confused on why you want to lynch the claimed cop, especially if his hint has turned out to be correct. Also, I can't figure out why a cop would investigate theo on N1, but that's another issue entirely, and may not even be relevant. I'm sure there are several ways Kscope could be sure of Blight's innocence. One very real possibility is that they are scum partners. By not really claiming, Kscope doesn't risk a counter claim. Kscope as scum doesn't match the read I've gotten on Kscope throughout the game, but I know I've misread players bigtime before.

The other half still wants a deathsauce lynch because that is the most logical thing at this point. He is unconfirmed and clearly is thought of as scum. He is the best canidate that isn't Blight or Ectomancer(depending on who won that arguement in one's opinion). Anyway i still want a Deathsauce lynch and this wasn't a one-liner(but it coulda been).

I don't know the best lynch at this point, I'm genuinely confused about the Kscope/Blight situation and feel we need to discuss it more before we do anything rash.

unvote:

[Off the Mark]

Scope's hints don't benefit the town at all. I tend to agree with Al: it's more likely they're both scum.

I agree with this. I don't see the sense in Kscope coming forward at that point as a pro-town move. It makes more sense as a scum move to try to push the lynch of DeathSauce. DS still looks scummy to me, but he's right, he is a man on an island here, and I don't see how lynching him will benefit us much. (besides catching one scum, if he is scum) It's possible DS's scum partners are completely ignoring him, but I think pursuing the Kscope/Blight situation could reveal all the werewolves as Kscope/Blight/Panzer. Not sure about Panzer, but his analysis post was very suspicious to me.

Really just want to add pressure right now, as I don't like the Kscope "hints".

vote: Blight

[Off the Mark]

No, I don't think you are offering up your scumbuddy DS. I think if you and Blight are scum, then DS is probably clean.

If you are town, then I don't get how your hinting helps us (obviously you become a night target for scum now, whether you come out and fully claim or not) but I don't see the sense of it from a scum perspective either, unless you just thought we would drop it and everyone would drop their Blight suspicion because we trust you? If anything, this has made me far more suspicious of the 2 of you.

[Off the Mark]

I think him hinting that I'm townie was a smart thing because if I get lynched (which was pretty unlikely at the point) or I get night killed (which is very likely because I don't think AlSleet trusts me all that much) then he'll be the only 100% guranteed townie you have.

That is just ridiculous. A scum can easily claim cop and then make a correct call in order to get confirmed. It's a very common ploy. Kscope could be doing the same thing with his hints. Kscope would be nowhere close to 100% confirmed.

[Off the Mark]

OK, well I think I get it now, but I think you guys have given out way too much info. 'Nuf said.

unvote, vote DeathSauce

Going back to my original suspicion.

[Off the Mark]

FOS: Numenorean

Your defense of Ecto is pretty extensive there, bud. Makes me wonder why you're so interested. I know Blight was pushing you on that, but most pro-town players would let it go and let Ecto take care of himself.

[Off the Mark]

Kscope, no more of that. You're making it painfully obvious.

[Off the Mark]

Sorry for the triple post, but how bout this idea? Lynch either Numenorean or Ecto. If the one we lynch comes up scum, AISleet kills the other one. If they come up town, then kill DeathSauce at night. I'm confident we will get at least 1 scum this way.

[Off the Mark]

Sorry for the triple post, but how bout this idea? Lynch either Numenorean or Ecto. If the one we lynch comes up scum, AISleet kills the other one. If they come up town, then kill DeathSauce at night. I'm confident we will get at least 1 scum this way.

How about this idea? We lynch OTM and if he comes up scum, Alsleet kills either Blight or K-Scope and we lynch the other one tomorrow? We're sure to get at least 1 scum this way.

Anymore false dilemmas for us?

fos OTM

Actually, no, that's a terrible idea, I hope that was sarcastic. You really think the scum are me/Blight/Kscope? And I was just pretending to be suspicious of them? Weird viewpoint, but OK. You've gotta be pretty thick to not see the Kscope/Blight situation for what it is at this point.

I realize ANY speculation about both kills is going to look suspicious, like I am trying to control the game or something, but I think it is worth discussing instead of AISleet just taking a shot in the dark. I think it is OK for us to speculate on the best play for the town, but then AISleet should make the final decision, so scum won't be able to know his target with any certainty during the night.

[Off the Mark]

That is a dangerous position. I'm not going to resort to scare tactics to save myself, though.

What? Then don't try to scare me. That was a very manipulative post, DS.

[Off the Mark]

I think we probably have a town roleblocker who blocked AISleet, since he could very well be an SK. We seem to have accepted that we are going to leave AISleet alive for a while, but don't forget we want to lynch him before endgame, since having an SK alive at endgame causes problems. I suppose having a cop investigation on him might help, but I have heard of making SK's investigation immune, so I don't know how much we can rely on that.

Wait a minute... if we get into a LYLO situation, we are not going to be able to lynch AISleet! We need to get today's lynch (or AI's kill) right then, or else tomorrow we will be at the mercy of the (possible) SK and the mafia. Man, this is getting complicated.

[Off the Mark]

DS - so what's your alternate theory? AI is scum and there is no vig/sk? So he had time to prepare his "Hey I sent in my night choice!" reaction when only xyzzy was killed?

Scum get nightkills too, ya know. But if he killed xyzzy as his scum kill, why would he claim to have targeted Qman? I just don't see the motivation here.

Or do you think AI is just lying town? Why would he do that?

[Off the Mark]

Hey, I just realized Gatorguy has completely slipped under the radar in this game. He replaced Korran, and although I would have never picked out Korran as scum, (although he did have a couple suspicious posts mid-day 1) I just completed a different game where Korran was replaced and he turned out to be scum in that one!! Unbelievably, he did not give any tells while playing, he just acted clueless, just like in this game. So we may have been too quick to dismiss Korran as town, and now Gatorguy has been lurking for quite a while.

Sorry to distract from the current discussion, but I just want to make sure we don't lose track of a possible suspect.

[Off the Mark]

Also, Qman was prodded a week ago, and nothing from him either.

[Off the Mark]

D'oh, hope not - shouldn't Shanba be back by now?

[Off the Mark]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]You heard him. Vote for Deathsauce. Because in his eyes, he obviously found 'teh group' already. Game's over in his eyes either way.[/quote]

That looks scummy as hell, Kscope. Lines like this make me think DS might actually be right, but I still feel good about the read I got on Kscope's and Blights hints, and I'm sticking with it. Kscope seems like he thinks he is confirmed town now and he doesn't have to be cautious anymore.

[Off the Mark]

I have to react to everything? I think Panzer's comment makes sense either way. I see how you could think it's scummy, but it might also be "knock it off Blight, Kscope had to save your ass by soft-claiming once already, now don't continue looking scummy and force him to fully claim to keep you alive". Heck, I told Kscope myself to shut up earlier, because I felt he was giving away too much.

[Off the Mark]

If he is town, he is a scum target no matter what.

Not necessarily. There are several possibilities still. Assuming he is town, he could be a cop, a tracker, a watcher, a mason... the scum don't know for sure how high of a priority to put on him until they get a full claim.

I think I know what the deal is, but I don't want to tell the scum exactly what he is, in case they haven't figured it out.

[Off the Mark]

Yeah, it is so common in Mafia for players to watch each other's backs.

Just realized... I see this as watching out for

the town

. It bothers me that you see this as watching out for each other. One of the scummiest things you've said, actually.

[Off the Mark]

Well for one reason, it's tougher to get the votes when 2 people are completely absent.

[Off the Mark]

FYI - I will be without internet until Monday

[Off the Mark]

I'm back, but looks like I didn't miss much.

[Off the Mark]

Can someone outline the case against Panzer? His cavalier attitude towards DeathSauce's bandwagon seems to be the problem everyone has with him? I guess that hasn't stood out for me because DeathSauce seems like obvious scum to me.

I agree, I have gotten occasional scum vibes from Panzer throughout this game, but ultimately I've just chalked it up to an irreverant posting style.

Is it because of the possible Kscope/Blight connection? I'm not sure I get that either. At this point, I'm willing to trust Kscope and Blight.

[Off the Mark]

Welcome to our new participants, we look forward to your contributions!

Translation - please help me out more than my last 2 scumbuddies did, since all they did was lurk.

New slightly off-the-wall theory - DS has seemed like a man on an island because he has been. Let's see what these new guys say.

[Off the Mark]

I find it veeeeery interesting that Numenorean is the first to step forward with a PBPA on Panzer, with the conclusion that he is indeed scum. (a conclusion that I don't think follows from the posts - weird, yes, scummy, maybe, but those posts don't tell me much either way) Wasn't Panzer at the very bottom of your suspicion list, in the most-likely-to-be-town section? Now suddenly you are jumping aboard a bandwagon that seems to be picking up momentum.

Looking back at bethelmark's Day 1 behavior, he does indeed look scummy. Now Num comes in and replaces him, goes after Blight for a while, then when info is revealed, he finds a convenient place to land on Panzer. Panzer may very well be scum, but at this point I feel much worse about Numenorean. He changes from "Panzer is pro-town" to "Panzer is scum and here's a PBPA to prove it" as soon as the wind changes. I don't like it.

unvote:
vote: Numenorean7

Oh and

FOS: Ecto

for being the only "certainly townie" player on Num's list. This whole thing stinks of scum.

[Off the Mark]

Oh, and in case someone didn't catch on,

that was a case against Panzer

, composed of a compilation of all of Panzer's D2 posts plus commentary by yours truly.

I did not come to the conclusion that Panzer is scum

. Yes, he has been doing some strange things. I pointed this out.

WTF man, seemed like you were calling Panzer scum to me. Now it seems like you are backtracking.

[Off the Mark]

Talk about the wind blowing....

Did you get a little excited there OTM? Because he didn't say Panzer was scummy, he did an analysis. Did the stall on the DS wagon cause you to abandon it? I thought DS was scummy to you?

Actually, yes, I did get excited because I felt Num had given himself away by his sudden change of heart on Panzer. Now he's saying he never thought Panzer was scum, although it sure seemed that way when I read over his PBPA.

If the new theory of Num and Ecto turn out to be scum, then DS is probably OK, since I have a hard time seeing Ecto and DS as scum together. Still think DS is scummy, but it doesn't fit with the theory I'm working on.

But now I'm waiting on an explanation from Num.

[Off the Mark]

Geez Louise is everyone scum in this game? DS there is no conflict between my two quotes above, none at all. Read it again until you understand that.

"Continued and insistent defense"? Misrepresent much? I think Num is scummy for hopping on a bandwagon of a player he called "pro-town" just a short time ago - that makes me a defender of Panzer? Please.

[Off the Mark]

I asked

someone

to outline a case against Panzer. My surprise was that the player who came forward to do so was

Numenorean

who had recently stated he believed Panzer was pro-town.

Now, if the PBPA was truly just an analysis, then there would have been no problem with it. But I got the clear impression from reading it that Num believed Panzer was scum. Every one of his analysis comments basically says "Panzer-scum is trying do this now." I don't know how you can read that as a neutral analysis.

Then when Num comes in and says "Oh no, I came to the conclusion that Panzer is

not

scum." It was a truly WTF moment for me.

[Off the Mark]

OK so you're posting a case

against

Panzer although you personally do not believe the case demonstrates he is scum. I gotta say I have never seen that done before.

I am not voting Panzer am I?

No, but you said you were ready to vote for him, but you wanted a vote count first. So you were practically on the bandwagon, with a side of possibly-fake towniness thrown in for good measure.

unvote:

while I think this over. I am just confused at this point.

[Off the Mark]

OK, thought it over. Let's look at Numenorean's opinions: (paraphrased)

"Panzer is pro-town"

"I am ready to vote for Panzer"

"Here's an analysis demonstrating all the ways Panzer is scum"

"After doing that analysis, I now believe Panzer is not scum."

You've got to be lying to us. Those just don't jive, my friend. Maybe Panzer is your scumbuddy and that's why your opinion is all over the place. You can't decide whether to distance yourself or bus him.

vote: Numenorean

[Off the Mark]

EBWOTP:

You can't decide whether to distance yourself or bus him.

That was supposed to say "to distance yourself by bussing him, or defend him."

[Off the Mark]

Wow, that was harsh to a degree beyond authenticity. I'm only feeling bussing from this post.

Agreed, Ecto's post is hilariously ironic. He is telling Blight to stop looking scummy, but his harsh tone makes him look scummy in many of his posts. I have adjusted my barometer in regards to Ecto because he gives me scum vibes in almost every post, to the point where I think if he was scum, it would be too obvious.

However, d3sisted, I'm not sure I understand who you think he is bussing? You think Ecto is bussing DeathSauce? Now that I don't understand at all... if DS and Ecto are on the same scum team, they have pulled off a marvelous performance throughout this game, and I just can't buy that at this point.

[Off the Mark]

If you paid any attention, you would know Numenorean isn't the lynch.

Ecto can you explain this? I must not be paying attention either, cuz I don't get it. Numenorean seems like the best lynch to me at this point, as I believe he is not being honest with us about his suspicions. He's waffled all over the place.

Ecto and Num are starting to make sense to me as a scum team. They certainly like to defend each other. Maybe Ecto looks scummy because he is scummy. But I don't think he's the best lynch today, because I agree with most of his analysis.

[Off the Mark]

That's who Ecto is voting for, isn't it?

[Off the Mark]

Honestly, OTM, I am beginning to think you are delighting in trying to drive me insane with your unwillingness to be suspicious of anyone but me.

Wow, DS, once again, extreme paranoia from you. I have mentioned LOTS of players I am suspicious of lately, but you are fixated only on my suspicion of you. Very very strange.

[Off the Mark]

Oh, ok, I misunderstood. So you think Blight and Kscope's hints are lies?

[Off the Mark]

I support Blight's suggestion to have the claimed Vig send no-kills henceforth. We can assume townie:scum ratio is 7:3, meaning he is twice as likely to hit a town than scum... does that mean nothing to you people?

But you could say the same thing about our lynching efforts. If the lynch was random, we'd have twice the chance of hitting a townie than we would scum. But the fact is, the lynch is

not

random and hopefully neither is AISleet's kill. If we stuck to your plan, we'd no lynch every night and lose. At some point, we gotta take the risk.

[Off the Mark]

Though I can't really say if DeathSauce is scum, I'm feeling really sketchy about the players trying to push for his lynch (i.e. Ectomancer, Panzerjager, HH, Kscope).

Oh wow, scum vibes are a-tingling. Maybe I was right about the lurkers+DeathSauce theory. "Though you can't really say"? Got a secret, do we?

[Off the Mark]

So, Kscope and Blight have a secret, which I think I understand.

And now Numeanor, Ecto, and Deathsauce have a secret which I have no fricking clue where that is coming from.

Secrets secrets are no fun, secrets secrets hurt someone.

One of these groups has got to be lying. I don't really know what to think at this point.

[Off the Mark]

I'm voting Numeanor, not DeathSauce. DS, I think you should let us in on the secret if you want to live. I'm still not totally opposed to your lynch.

[Off the Mark]

I'm pretty sure I answered it already, but...
Yes, I believe Blight and KScope's hints.

Has that changed since the top of the page, when they were on your suspicious list?

[Off the Mark]

Numen's last post is giving me town vibes.

unvote

I'm considering voting for desisted or Deathsauce. I'll think a bit and look things over again.

[Off the Mark]

^^^ that made up my mind. Honestly, DS, how can you claim to be a townie who doesn't see what is going on there with the Kscope/Blight hints? That seems impossible to me, therefore you must be scum.

vote: DeathSauce

[Off the Mark]

^^^ wouldn't surprise me, actually, but your lynch-1 vote for DeathSauce is currently putting a pretty serious dent in a DS-desist scumbuddy theory. That would be pretty dang risky of a move for a distancing vote, but you did withdraw it rather quickly. I'm still currently inclined to think you are not scum together though, but anything's possible.

[Off the Mark]

OK, fine, you know what? There's no point in keeping it a secret. It's not that powerful a role and scum would probably rather go after other power roles anyway. He and Blight are masons.

[Off the Mark]

Sorry Kscope and Blight for exposing you like that, but I think the secrets are hurting the town at this point. Too many people are confused. You don't have to confirm if I'm right or not, there are certainly other possibilities, but that was the feel I got from your hints.

Of course, my best guess at this point is that DS is scum, not town, but I always like to assume the best in people when I discuss the game with them. Also, it seems more people than DS have been confused by the secret. Again, don't confirm or deny it if you wish to keep the mystery.

[Off the Mark]

Nice job, AI! WTF's a jailkeeper?

[Off the Mark]

Sorry, DS - I waffled all day between being sure you were scum and thinking you were a scummy-acting townie. I felt comfortable with your lynch by the end but I guess it was the wrong move. Once I saw you were town, I really hoped AI would go after Panzer, so at least we got that one right. I felt like I was really playing well on Day1 but I screwed up Day2.

I'm going to reread Panzer now to see what I can learn. Initially, I am wondering if I was too quick to accept Kscope and Blight. Do we have any investigation info on them? I suppose unless we have a guilty, the cop should keep it to themselves. A cop is generally called a seer in these games, right, not a jailkeeper? Maybe a jailkeeper is a roleblocker.

[Off the Mark]

Does anyone know what this might mean?

He seemed to have been stabbed, however the stab wound was somehow burnt, as were other smaller wounds across his body.

Just wondering if that might give us a clue about AISleet's alignment. Usually when I see "stab" I think SK, but this is my first werewolf-themed game, so I am not sure about that.

[Off the Mark]

Now, my question is, why would you want to censor out everything the scum has said? We have apprehended a goldmine of information that can essentially lead us

directly

to his partners, and you want us to jettison it?

You make a good point d3sisted, but I can't help but think you are trying to make us focus on one of the major pieces of evidence here and completely ignoring the other.

The other piece of evidence is the DeathSauce bandwagon, of course. And looking over the end of Day 2, I reeeeeaaally don't like how you hammered him without ever saying WHY you were changing your mind. In fact, your opinions were all over the place the last few pages and then suddenly you hammered DeathSauce. Can you explain your thought process more here?

For now I am going to just give an

FOS: d3sisted

but I definitely have not reached any conclusions yet. It just seems odd to me you are so gung-ho about Panzer's posts, but you haven't mentioned the DS bandwagon. Panzer's posts will help us too, of course, but we also must discuss who hopped on the wagon in an opportunistic way and the hammer.

I can't help thinking that Panzer hammered schis and he was scum. Sometimes the obvious answer is the right one.

[Off the Mark]

Also, why are you so quick to vote? This isn't exactly a day1 random voting situation. I have noticed scum tend to vote early to avoid the scrutiny of the end of the bandwagon.

[Off the Mark]

Yes, I fucked up completely by dropping the hammer to a mislynch. I did what I did, and only upon hindsight do I regret it. Nonetheless, I'm not going to cover up for it with silly reasons,

as that is what scum tend to do.

Extreme WIFOM there, but anyways, I'd still like a reason as to why you changed your mind. You had a reason for unvoting him on the previous page, but you gave no reason whatsoever for hammering him, and you continue to give no reason. Right now it sounds like you hammered him just for the heck of it, which only scum would do.

[Off the Mark]

@d3sisted - OK, that makes sense, but I am surprised you hammered pretty quick it seemed, that's all. Now I am feeling less sure about Kscope and Blight, but I think I found something else while reviewing, check this out:

I've been looking over Panzer's posts from Day 1, and I found something interesting. He never even mentions Korran until post 197. Panzer repeatedly points out schism's newb play, but no mention of Korran until the bottom of page 8. And then here's Panzer's post:

jesus christ. Mod: Please replace Korran.

I imagine if Panzer and Korran were both scum, Panzer would be afraid to draw Korran into a dialogue because he'd be afraid Korran would give himself away, or worse, give away the connection to Panzer. And then Panzer straight up asks the mod to replace him. I think Panzer was afraid Korran was going to ruin the scum's chances. I pointed out some posts later in the day by Korran that looked really scummy and then Korran went into lurker mode after that and was eventually replaced by Gatorguy. Gatorguy never said much, tried to get a wagon going on me a couple times but never gave a reason, then voted for DeathSauce early on Day2 and lurked through the rest of the day. HH replaced Gatorguy but never posted. Then Jenter replaced HH, and I gotta agree with d3sisted about Jenter, his defense is pretty lame.

The only other time I see Panzer mention Korran is in 262 where he says "I feel the same way, I almost want to lynch him out of pure curiosity." Now clearly, Panzer is lying here, so who knows what to make of that. But it seems pretty noncommittal, which is how I expect scum to act when referring to each other.

I am almost ready to vote, but I want to hear others' opinions on my findings and get a response from Jenter.

FOS: Jenter

[Off the Mark]

I don't see the point of asking AISleet to kill himself. If he's an SK, then he's obviously not going to do it and then we can lynch him the next day. I understand that part. But if he's a vig... that's where it gets weird. It would be a pro-town move for him to prove that he's not an SK, but does that outweigh the fact that he'd be killing off a townie intentionally? I don't know if I like that idea. I say we just ask him to no-kill if it comes down to a game-losing situation if he gets his kill wrong. However, if he's the SK at that point, he could really screw us over, but at least we'd know and the game wouldn't end and maybe we could salvage a win.

Looking over the list of remaining players and where I suspect their alignments are, I would not be surprised if this were a 2 scum + SK setup. Don't forget, if AI is SK, it's still in his best interest to kill off scum rather than town to avoid getting lynched. Despite this, I still don't think he is a good lynch for today, though, as I kinda feel like we should clean out the scum first and then deal with AI. Before I was worried about the scum false-claiming SK, but now that we've seen more nightkills, that really doesn't make sense to me.

Still waiting for Jenter's response before I vote.

[Off the Mark]

I'ts getting late so I'll probably post in more depth tomorrow if I can.

I can't answer for my ancestors, I'm afraid... and you're talking about my defense? I still haven't seen a case against

me

. Honestly, if you're going to lynch me on my predecessors failings then I may as well not be here.

Um, I posted a case against you? It was based on everything that has happened to your predecessors, true, but we can't just dismiss that. You do still have the same role, after all.

desisted; My ample chance was a couple of days? I don't live at the keyboard, you know... You gave me one post and I gave a couple of ideas, you don't like them so now I've 'screwed up my chance' and I can never be trusted?

paranoid - he didn't say you could never be trusted. But the more you talk, the more I feel better about our suspicions, so keep going.

What, nothing like desisted jumped on me after one post?

It's not one post. You have to accept that the history of your predecessors is part of what you are taking on here. You can't just wave your hands and make it all go away, and it seems very scummy of you to try that.

As to the other players;
I don't like the way Kaleidoscope says he hasn't contacted Blight at all - that's just throwing away the mason's real advantage.

Ah, finally, some real content. That does seem a little odd, actually, but I can see how the matters discussed between masons wouldn't be much different than what goes on in the thread. Masons are otherwise vanilla, so it's not like they'd have a lot of secrets to plan out regarding night actions.

However, when you called night conversation "the mason's real advantage" that struck me as being non-genuine. Seems you are overstating the importance of that and using it to cast suspicion on them.

[Off the Mark]

Me too. I want to figure out what to do about AI's next nightkill before I vote, but I'm pretty much ready to vote for Jenter.

[Off the Mark]

I've shared my thoughts, but I am curious to hear from Kscope and more from Blight. Seems like they are taking a backseat on Day3.

[Off the Mark]

LOL we got Battle Mage. You are legendary, dude. I've never played in a game with you but I've read games and heard stories. Welcome aboard. Interested to hear your take. I guess some of the questions we wanted answered can't be answered now, like "Who else do you think is scum along with Panzer?" I mean, of course you can answer them, but you're not AISleet. Anyway, your input would still be good I'm sure, and we need to talk about if/who you should target tonight.

[Off the Mark]

OK then.

vote: Jenter

[Off the Mark]

Just doing a little rereading and I couldn't help but notice posts 623 and 624. (page 25) Gatorguy had been lurking for pages at this point, but just

3 minutes

after Panzer votes for Deathsauce, Gator jumps in and comments "I want to vote for him too."

It's almost

too

obvious, really, and I'm sure Panzer was cringing at the time, assuming they are both indeed scum.

Here it is, to save you the effort of clicking back:

Unvote: Vote:Death Sauce. My vote should be on this guy.

I would vote for deathsauce but I'm not sure where the vote would put him, can we get a vote count?

[Off the Mark]

Holy crap, interesting summary. Can't say I agree with everything there, but for the most part it makes sense. The main thing I have a problem with is how you think Blight is scum but Kscope is town? I don't understand how that is possible, given that Kscope is vouching for Blight.

I think either some combo of Jenter/Desisted/Ecto are the final 2 scum, assuming there are 2 scum left. (sidenote: BM did not consider the possibility of a 1 remaining scum + SK scenario. This is a null-tell on him since he would do the same whether he was SK or not, but the rest of us need to consider it) The other possibility is that it's Kscope/Blight, but I find that less likely. Worth noting is that if it's Jenter/Desisted then Desisted bussed his partner right at the beginning of Day 3. Doesn't make it impossible, but it seems like an odd play for scum to make.

[Off the Mark]

Well if even Kscope is saying he's not sure about Blight anymore, then I guess Jenter/Blight is a possibility. I still think that is a less likely scenario then the other two combos I posted earlier. Maybe it's Kscope/Blight and Kscope is just trying to throw out that possibility to distance himself from Blight. So that if eventually Blight DOES get lynched, Kscope is no longer linked to him <-- this seems quite possible to me.

[Off the Mark]

to not tell the masons that there is doubt, would be ridiculously unfair. Hence my question to Scope.

BM

I completely agree with that, but I don't know if that's how it works or not. I am still learning how all the roles work in this game. This is similar to the cops' sanity situation. Are cops always told that they are sane? Do cops sometimes have no clues from the PM that they might be insane? It's the exact same dilemma. The existence of the other role (insane cop) messes up the original role. (since a cop has to always be worrying about his sanity)

[Off the Mark]

No cop? Heh, so what was the point of my alpha wolf role? Here I was trying to get investigated by pushing DeathSauce and Jenter... oh well. At least that explains the balance issue. Ecto and I were thinking, "DANG the deck is really stacked against us here with a cop, a jailkeeper, 2 masons and a vig." But without a cop, the balance makes more sense. If BM had decided to no-kill, we might have had a rough Day4, very doubtful we could avoid the noose another day.

I thought Num was the cop (that's why we killed him N2) and then on Day3 I was sure Desisted was a cop. I was trying to convince Ecto to start off Day4 (if we got that far) with a cop claim, that would have been interesting.

Our 1 mistake was killing xyzzy on N1. I thought I got a power-role vibe from him and Panzer agreed, but that turned out to be pointless. We probably should have killed AISleet to remove the wildcard. (since he was in jail though, it worked out well that we didn't target him - could have been a no-kill N1 with 2 killing parties. That would have made for interesting conversation.) After N1, we felt Num was a more important target N2. We knew he had a power-role because he was "absolutely sure" AISleet was not scum, so we figured he investigated or blocked him N1.

So, you guys surprised?

[Off the Mark]

Wait, my PM said I was immune to nightkills? I don't remember that. I thought it just said investigations. Oops. Of course, I no longer have my PM to check that...

I liked the flavor of the day/night scenes. Nice job Shanba.

I loved this:

I worked out which scum targeted by means of which one sent the PM to me. In future I would tell them this beforehand (though it worked in their favour, as Ecto sent in the kill the night numenorean died and numenorean targeted Off the Mark)

I thought this might be the case, and intentionally directed Ecto to send in the kill, because I thought he was least suspicious at that point. Woot!

[Off the Mark]

I had planned that if I DID survive a NK and there was no possible doc protection to explain it, I was going to claim "village priest". My holiness and piety protect me from all evil creatures at night. I am not allowed to cast a hammering vote. Heh, how would that claim have gone over, out of curiosity?

[Off the Mark]

Yeah, I had to PM you to find out my scumbuddies, remember? I guess I just assumed an alpha would be investigation immune and I didn't think about the NK issue until after the game had started.

[Off the Mark]

DS, you were a perfect patsy for Day2 because of the way you had pushed against AISleet. And then Day3, Jenter was the perfect patsy because of his lurking and voting with Panzer.

Blight, I'm glad to see you enjoyed the game even though it was a scum win. That shows character. Even if I had been caught in the end, this was a seriously awesome game.

[Off the Mark]

Before that, OTM was one of my major targets and it took my focus off of him.

I think that's because I was trying to get you lynched.

So would you guys have believed my "village priest" claim if I survived a vig attempt?

[Off the Mark]

I figured Desisted had to be the cop and I also figured he already tried to investigate the vig and one of the masons. Ecto and I were really the only ones left to investigate. I thought if he investigates Ecto, we could be in trouble, so I thought Ecto should claim cop FIRST and accuse Desisted and then anything Desisted would say would look like a desperate scum attempt.

But yeah, I know it would have looked suspicious, but I thought it would be better than Desisted coming forward with a guilty on Ecto. All that strategizing and no cop, lol.