Mini 460 - Werewolves! Game over.

[Shanba]

Jailkeeper is the standard jailkeeper role

[Ectomancer]

*sigh*

A JailKeeper is a combination roleblocker/Doc. They protect the person of their choice, but also prevents that person from using their night choice.
When both BethelMark and Numenorean came out saying specifically that AlSleet was a Vig/Sk but

not

scum, I thought it was a hint of a result of a cop investigation, which is why I didn't want Numenorean lynched. I was hoping Doc would see the same thing and protect him last night. I guess this opens the floodgates to possible roles, because I didnt think JailKeeper was a "normal" role.
My guess is that BethelMark/Num got their confident statement because they targeted AlSleet night 1 to protect the claimed power role from a scum kill. Then when a kill happened anyhow, they figured AlSleet couldn't have been involved in the single kill, so wasnt scum because he was roleblocked. Then when he was surprised the next day that Qman was alive, it confirmed for them that he was Vig or SK.

AlSleet, what about Panzer made you decide he was your target, and now that you see he was indeed scum, does the criteria used give us another target, or was it just Panzer specific behavior that led you to kill him?

[Off the Mark]

Does anyone know what this might mean?

He seemed to have been stabbed, however the stab wound was somehow burnt, as were other smaller wounds across his body.

Just wondering if that might give us a clue about AISleet's alignment. Usually when I see "stab" I think SK, but this is my first werewolf-themed game, so I am not sure about that.

[d3sisted]

Very nicely done, AlSleet.

Upon retrospect, it was pretty clever of Panzer to rebut the Vig claim and turn AlSleet against us by proposing the idea of an SK.

Oh well, time for a reread with the recent occurances in mind.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Well, this is interesting, all my suspects turn up town and someone who I was trusting a bit turns up scum. Seems my radar is way off this game

With that being said, are mason traitors allowed in mini normals?

[d3sisted]

Ok, so I've narrowed this down to OTM, Ecto, and Jenter.

Here are a few things I've also noticed:
-Numen7 was the only one to really push for Blight. He's dead.
-Xyzzy really pushed for OTM. Dead as well.
-Everyone who Panzer has voted so far came up town. He put FoS's on blight and OTM. I'm assuming blight is mason (I'd like a claim if you are, I'm tired of being held in suspense) meaning OTM is most likely town-aligned as well.

Here's something I also found interesting, said by Panzerjager:

I also don't like how he suddenly buys Blight and KScope hints.

Now, were Blight and KScope scum, he would've

liked

how I bought their hints. Follow me here?

I will Very Strong FoS: Desisted. I feel he is most likely scum with Deathsauce and OTM/Numen or He's scum with Blight and Kscope.

Deathsauce and Numen came up town. This probably means OTM, Blight, and KScope are town as well. Eliminate these guys from the players list and who's left? Ecto and Jenter.

My bet right now is on Jenter. But before we go into that, let's give him a warm welcome and a chance to speak.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Hello! My predecessors seem to have been quite quiet.

Ok, so I've narrowed this down to OTM, Ecto, and Jenter.

Here are a few things I've also noticed:
-Numen7 was the only one to really push for Blight. He's dead.
-Xyzzy really pushed for OTM. Dead as well.
-Everyone who Panzer has voted so far came up town. He put FoS's on blight and OTM. I'm assuming blight is mason (I'd like a claim if you are, I'm tired of being held in suspense) meaning OTM is most likely town-aligned as well.

Here's something I also found interesting, said by Panzerjager:

I also don't like how he suddenly buys Blight and KScope hints.

Now, were Blight and KScope scum, he would've

liked

how I bought their hints. Follow me here?

I will Very Strong FoS: Desisted. I feel he is most likely scum with Deathsauce and OTM/Numen or He's scum with Blight and Kscope.

Deathsauce and Numen came up town. This probably means OTM, Blight, and KScope are town as well. Eliminate these guys from the players list and who's left? Ecto and Jenter

Just a thought, he might have put one scumbuddy in there to make him look good if they got lynched/ensuure their safety if he go lynched.

My bet right now is on Jenter. But before we go into that, let's give him a warm welcome and a chance to speak.

So what is the case against me as opposed to ectomancer?

OTM, good point. We may still have ourselves an SK here, don't siscount the possibility. Remember that Pan would not have known wether Al was a vig or SK.

[d3sisted]

I gave you a chance to speak, and I'm quite disappointed you chose to waste it like that with your "Hey wait, why aren't you voting Ecto instead of me! He's just as scummy!"

Vote: Jenter Brolincani

Don't worry, you still have plenty of time to speak, and maybe even change my mind.

[Jenter Brolincani]

That's not what I said, I just asked the reason for your suspicion.

My predecessors haven't contributed much at all, so I have little to show in terms of proving my townness.

Also, I would repeat that we shouldn't draw any conclusions from Panzer's words. They may be trying to lynch town, protect a scum, both... It just ends up in WIFOM world.

[d3sisted]

Personally, one of the best ways of extracting information is from the death of a scum. Analyzing his posts and voting patterns can give us results of a value far beyond anything else.

Now, my question is, why would you want to censor out everything the scum has said? We have apprehended a goldmine of information that can essentially lead us

directly

to his partners, and you want us to jettison it?

The only reason you wouldn't want us drawing conclusions from Panzer's words is that they are simply too telling. Interpreted correctly, they are the road signs pointing town into the direction of victory; you, however, do not want us reading from his words

because it compromises your security

. You are afraid that if we go back and scrutinize everything Panzer has said so far, the scum will be exposed.

Your case is looking grimmer and grimmer, Jenter.

[Blight]

This game makes my head hurt. First off, I want to say great job on the kill AlSleet. I definately misjudged you. I'm also very appreciative that you chose not to kill me (I'm honestly surprised to be still alive LOL).

I was wrong about Numeneron, so now I'm questioning my stance on Ecto. I'm now thinking the chance of me being right about him is about 50/50.

One thing that bears noticing from day 2 was that both Panzer and Gatorguy took the opportunity to vote for DS immediately after his slipup and neither even considered changing their votes.

I'm going to try and see if there's any connection between Panzer and anyone else from previous posts. See if I can piece something together.

[Off the Mark]

Now, my question is, why would you want to censor out everything the scum has said? We have apprehended a goldmine of information that can essentially lead us

directly

to his partners, and you want us to jettison it?

You make a good point d3sisted, but I can't help but think you are trying to make us focus on one of the major pieces of evidence here and completely ignoring the other.

The other piece of evidence is the DeathSauce bandwagon, of course. And looking over the end of Day 2, I reeeeeaaally don't like how you hammered him without ever saying WHY you were changing your mind. In fact, your opinions were all over the place the last few pages and then suddenly you hammered DeathSauce. Can you explain your thought process more here?

For now I am going to just give an

FOS: d3sisted

but I definitely have not reached any conclusions yet. It just seems odd to me you are so gung-ho about Panzer's posts, but you haven't mentioned the DS bandwagon. Panzer's posts will help us too, of course, but we also must discuss who hopped on the wagon in an opportunistic way and the hammer.

I can't help thinking that Panzer hammered schis and he was scum. Sometimes the obvious answer is the right one.

[Off the Mark]

Also, why are you so quick to vote? This isn't exactly a day1 random voting situation. I have noticed scum tend to vote early to avoid the scrutiny of the end of the bandwagon.

[Jenter Brolincani]

The only point I was trying to make is that use them, yes, but don't simply read them off and say, 'scum hate town so the following must be town'. Mafia's more complex than that...

[Ectomancer]

The only point I was trying to make is that use them, yes, but don't simply read them off and say, 'scum hate town so the following must be town'. Mafia's more complex than that...

Or not, but I agree with you. Any argument over how scum would act inevitably leads to WIFOM. You can look for ties, but a flat assessment that Panzer only fingered town is based upon conjecture at this point.

[d3sisted]

The other piece of evidence is the DeathSauce bandwagon, of course. And looking over the end of Day 2, I reeeeeaaally don't like how you hammered him without ever saying WHY you were changing your mind. In fact, your opinions were all over the place the last few pages and then suddenly you hammered DeathSauce. Can you explain your thought process more here?

For now I am going to just give an

FOS: d3sisted

but I definitely have not reached any conclusions yet. It just seems odd to me you are so gung-ho about Panzer's posts, but you haven't mentioned the DS bandwagon. Panzer's posts will help us too, of course, but we also must discuss who hopped on the wagon in an opportunistic way and the hammer.

I can't help thinking that Panzer hammered schis and he was scum. Sometimes the obvious answer is the right one.

Yes, I fucked up completely by dropping the hammer to a mislynch. I did what I did, and only upon hindsight do I regret it. Nonetheless, I'm not going to cover up for it with silly reasons, as that is what scum tend to do.

Also, why are you so quick to vote? This isn't exactly a day1 random voting situation. I have noticed scum tend to vote early to avoid the scrutiny of the end of the bandwagon.

Quick? I gave him ample chance to contribute something meaningful, but he failed to do so and he still has not done so. All I want is for him to opine on the game, is that too much to ask for?

[Off the Mark]

Yes, I fucked up completely by dropping the hammer to a mislynch. I did what I did, and only upon hindsight do I regret it. Nonetheless, I'm not going to cover up for it with silly reasons,

as that is what scum tend to do.

Extreme WIFOM there, but anyways, I'd still like a reason as to why you changed your mind. You had a reason for unvoting him on the previous page, but you gave no reason whatsoever for hammering him, and you continue to give no reason. Right now it sounds like you hammered him just for the heck of it, which only scum would do.

[d3sisted]

I voted him because there was noone better to vote at the time. Kscope and Blight I assumed were masons, Numen wasn't the play, AlSleet claimed vig, OTM and Ecto were simply too helpful in their scumhunting to be lynched. I also didn't vote Panzer because though I did suspect him, his hammer vote on D1 seemed too bold for scum.

[Off the Mark]

@d3sisted - OK, that makes sense, but I am surprised you hammered pretty quick it seemed, that's all. Now I am feeling less sure about Kscope and Blight, but I think I found something else while reviewing, check this out:

I've been looking over Panzer's posts from Day 1, and I found something interesting. He never even mentions Korran until post 197. Panzer repeatedly points out schism's newb play, but no mention of Korran until the bottom of page 8. And then here's Panzer's post:

jesus christ. Mod: Please replace Korran.

I imagine if Panzer and Korran were both scum, Panzer would be afraid to draw Korran into a dialogue because he'd be afraid Korran would give himself away, or worse, give away the connection to Panzer. And then Panzer straight up asks the mod to replace him. I think Panzer was afraid Korran was going to ruin the scum's chances. I pointed out some posts later in the day by Korran that looked really scummy and then Korran went into lurker mode after that and was eventually replaced by Gatorguy. Gatorguy never said much, tried to get a wagon going on me a couple times but never gave a reason, then voted for DeathSauce early on Day2 and lurked through the rest of the day. HH replaced Gatorguy but never posted. Then Jenter replaced HH, and I gotta agree with d3sisted about Jenter, his defense is pretty lame.

The only other time I see Panzer mention Korran is in 262 where he says "I feel the same way, I almost want to lynch him out of pure curiosity." Now clearly, Panzer is lying here, so who knows what to make of that. But it seems pretty noncommittal, which is how I expect scum to act when referring to each other.

I am almost ready to vote, but I want to hear others' opinions on my findings and get a response from Jenter.

FOS: Jenter

[d3sisted]

Nice find. What I'm surprised about is how Panzer doesn't talk about Korran at all, just asks for him to be replaced.

My vote stays for now.

[Blight]

After a skim through, it seems that Panzer had words with OTM, D3sisted, & Ecto. He wanted AlSleet lynched. And he strongly didn't believe K-Scope's claim that I'm town. I'm not saying that there's no way these people are scum because it's possible that he didn't want there to be a strong connection between him and his scum buddies. I just think that this should be taken into consideration.

He also questioned me on voting for Ecto in my second post and he was hesitant to jump on my idea of lynching either DS or Ecto and then having AlSleet kill the other. He said he'd mull it over. From Panzer's posts, I felt that he was often very impulsive. He voted for Schism when a large case was building against him, he voted for AlSleet because "he doesn't believe in claimed Vigs", he hammered Schism with no real explanation, and then he jumped on DS at the most opportunistic moment. He seemed very opportunistic and he was pushing hard for DS's lynch, so for him to say he'd "mull it over" when this could potentially deliver him two townies seems a little odd to me. However, I'm having a lot of second thoughts about Ecto being scum. It's still very likely, but right now I don't think he's the best lynch for

today

.

I do think there's a stronger case for Koran/Gatorguy/Jenter than anyone else at the moment. Not only because of what OTM mentioned, but because both of them were very opportunistic in jumping on DS from the very beginning of the day. And neither one took their vote off of DS.

I'm a little hesitant to put a second vote on him, though, because all it takes is the remaining two (I'm still assuming there were three to begin with) werewolves to jump on and get a quick lynch.

I think he's the best lynch for today, but I think everyone should give an opinion before we start voting.

[Ectomancer]

I never did get much of a read on Koran other than I thought he wasn't saying much even when posting. Gatorguy had a bunch of one liners that could mean anything, I'm not familiar enough with him to know if that was his playstyle/ Jenter certainly got off on the wrong foot with a couple of you when he stepped in. I haven't seen anything that would set me off against him either.
Now, that was my read. OTM's read certainly has material there. I don't think the connection has to be stretched too far to match. We'll see. That role has yet to be pressured in this game really.

Before we lynch anybody though, we need to discuss AlSleet and get a plan of action. A bad lynch today, followed by a bad AlSleet kill tonight and we could end up losing the game, assuming we have more than 1 scum remaining. There is also the issue of SK remaining. I think AlSleet has killed or tried to kill every night, so we dont have a no kill that would tend to lead me to believe Vig. I still think having him kill himself at night would be a better option than a lynch, but we need to figure out if or when that would be best too.

There are too many options for me to list right now, its after 1am and I'm too tired to continue. I know there are several "what if's" that I haven't covered. Just dont lynch anybody until we have a chance to talk about them.

[d3sisted]

AlSleet's most recent NK gave me quite a bit of confidence in his decision making. I'm actually for keeping him around for one more night before he NKs himself. However, I find it very odd how he hasn't spoken since.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

I'm currently clueless on what to do. I think a reread will do me some good. With that being said, I'd like to hear some more from Alsleet.

[Ectomancer]

To answer your earlier question, I dont know about a mason traitor, but I've played in games where the Masons couldn't be certain of the others alignment. Now, game-wise, that doesn't make sense to me. What's the point of Mason's if you don't know he is the same alignment as you? Can't they also talk at night? If you are uncertain of his alignment, then I think the conversations between you two should be shared with the town in case he has said something that another townie knows isn't true or might turn on a light bulb.

@d3sisted - AlSleet killing himself is a real touchy topic. I think it is possible we would either have to no lynch one day, or have him no kill tonight to keep him around tomorrow. In a 12 player game, given Panzer's role, Im still assuming more than 1 scum, so if we get down to 4 players and haven't found scum, we lose. (technically, if we get down to 5 we could lose, but I seriously doubt a 4 person mafia in a 12 player game).
A bad lynch, a bad choice by Al, a scum kill and we lose tonight/tomorrow. So, if we don't get scum today, Al can't kill anyone tonight at all unless we are willing to take the chance that he will choose well again tonight. If we get scum today, our options are open.