Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not lurking in a game of this deliciousness. I think CES just suggested we lop off someone's head, which is excessive. And messy.

vote: CES

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick is town, Glork's scum. It's fairly obvious already.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Glork

[MrBuddyLee]

CES is more active than usual early, probably because Andrew's blood is in the water. His comments so far are consistently aligned towards attaining an Andrew lynch.

Andrew realizes a trick move went horribly bad, no alignment discernable from his panicked attempt to recover. His counterwagon attempt following Glork's CES vote is transparent. He then expresses indifference about suicide a couple times, and that's not a protown action. His vote on MGM is sound, however, his expressed logic for unvoting MGM leaves the door way too open for trivial unvote, possible scumpair association.

ChannelDbird wins the late to the table on the WIFOM issue award, after interim posts avoiding it.

Patrick reaching on the issue of the Andrewwagon. From then on sounds like protown Patrick again and makes appropriate observations.

Spectrumvoid with extreme and suspect protection of Andrew. Votes CES and oddly unvotes the next day for no apparent reason.

Thesp strings up Andrew in the guise of a lesson. He proceeds to base an argument against Andrew on very factual info with what sounds like little gut instinct behind it. Most recent argument: kill Andrew to keep him from cluttering the game, almost sounds like he's assuming Andrew's town. Takes offense at Nightfall's deflection of the AndrewS lynch. Has zeroed in on "the right lynch" for today, a tactical play.

Glork makes a magnificent suggestion and only one person bites. A little later on he belabors it in the middle of other more relevant arguments, knowing full well what insightful 11 answers he's going to get. Shows consistent and aggressive protection of Thesp for unknown and apparently unfounded reasons. Glork points out IH's illogical Ether/Andrew hypothesis immediately, is apparently not in flippant Glork mode. (Thesp simulposts same.)

IH is town until his overreaching attack on Ether, which doesn't make sense. She could easily be making a protown play or be scum sucking up to a townie, either of which IH doesn't appear to consider.

Ether good observations of who appears to be playing for the town win. Later on, a post showing more thoughtfulness and curiosity. I don't have a problem with her reasoned stance on Andrew. Good poke at sv.

MGM is the first to make the move I'd expect scum to make on Glork's play, regardless of Glork's alignment. Then he makes the mistake of saying:

Granted, you might get a few scum on your bandwagon, but not because they're opportunists, it will be because you called the wagon on yourself

which seems to be assuming the township of Andrew and Glork.

Nightfall votes Ether for protecting Andrew, without really explaining whether he thinks one or both are scum. Thin contribution.

Adele hops off the Andrewwagon as it's losing steam. This is the only note I took of Adele's play, meaning she's not playing or saying much.

At the end of my read I had no notes on Zindaras, and a reread confirmed his posts were all paper-thin.

vote: MGM, FOS: Andrew

need more from Nightfall, Adele, Zindy and Fritz. Ether, Patrick looking town.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: spectrumvoid.

You're avoiding saying anything noteworthy. Then again, neither was Zindy til someone noticed.

I'll be back on the MGMwagon in a sec, or maybe I won't.

In other news, the Thesp-Glork axis gives me hives. Fortunately, this crew doesn't have many sheep in it.

[MrBuddyLee]

Either Glork really gets a kick out of being manic, or he's not sure if he can fake being analytically curious when he's scum so he covers by being irrational 80% of the time.

Either that or when he's useful he gets killed so he tried to be unhelpful for a day or two so he can actually make some endgames.

[MrBuddyLee]

My comment isn't sketchy if you read between the lines. I don't see how finding an unfounded unholy alliance creepy is hypocritical in the least, and I think there are more independent thinkers in this game than the average game.

Still waiting for the slightest hint of township from sv.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Patrick

[MrBuddyLee]

I tend to be more realistic now, and don't see IH being lynched in 3 days (although the deadline is gone now). I mean sure it's realistic timewise if a load of ppl switched their votes, but it seems that few ppl are interested in lynching IH, despite what I consider to be scummy play on his part.

This is a fallacy. A "good" player doesn't limit lynch discussion to one or two players far from the deadline. Thre's nothing realistic about giving the town less info to work with by narrowing the discussion.

I do have another theory, which involves MBL and Andrew as scumbuddies. I had been going to ask Thesp why he had accused MBL of being scum, but instead decided to look back at the only substantial post MBL had made at the time, to see if there was anything in it. I noticed MBL linked several ppl to Andrew, while suggesting MgM as an alternative, bringing a load of others into the spotlight, while praising two players (myself and Ether) who have been somewhat defending Andrew. Also keeps a fairly noncommital stance on Andrew himself. Don't think it's strong enough to make a definite link, but Thesp always comes across as very sure of himself anyway.

I think everyone should take a stand on Andrew's silliness today. I think there'll be town on both sides of one issue (WIFOM issue) and unanimous on the other (suicidal tendencies issue). I think catching scumpartners of Andrew would have to be done by analyzing nuances, not their actual net stance on "Andrew".

[MrBuddyLee]

After checking my own posts, it appears I haven't explained my reasoning for unvoting Glork.

I checked back and didn't see where anyone asked you why you unvoted Glork. In my experience, scum's more likely to do things like reread to pre-emptively defend against possible attacks.

Andrew, what's your take on spectrumvoid?

[MrBuddyLee]

Andrew said he voted me because of my vote on Glork, so that post was to show how his vote no longer makes sense.

Wait, so if you make a scummy play but then you say "do-over" or take it back, that makes you not scummy?

[MrBuddyLee]

Consecutive posts:

I haven't the slightest idea what's up with Mgm. I don't like him, but I like IH less.

Speaking of which, Mgm's posts give off a vibe of overwhelming stupid and I don't actually find them scummy. Hey, Thesp--what

was

your alternate theory?

Hmm.

[MrBuddyLee]

IH isn't as aggressively insightful as I've seen him. His play is more flippant and he's hedging here and there.

Here's his first real serious vote:

I need to do a little reread to make sure, but pretty sure that MGM has been wishy washy, unhelpful, and "misread" the game a few times to many for my liking.

= | Lemme go through his posts first to make sure.

This is the kind of mealy-mouthed argument scum would make for a lynch.

I prefer an MGM lynch/vig. I think IH is a solid scum candidate but not likely in conjunction with MGM.

unvote, vote: MGM

Thesp, why haven't you expressed an opinion on MGM? His play's noteworthy.

[MrBuddyLee]

Adele
Most likely of anyone to be scum. Mealy-mouthed near-complete lack of genuine suspicions, and significantly, seemed to take for granted that sv was actually a vig before that was confirmed.

ChannelDelibird
Voting purely on WIFOM, then again when commenting on Glork. Lame, and near-total lack of curiosity.

Cogito Ergo Sum
Way more chirpy and active than usual. I've seen him be lazy town and SK. Significantly manipulative D1. Seemingly strategic push on Thesp.

Ether
Moved off of IH as soon as it was evident he was being vigged, in the same post in which she said she found IH's postings helpful in assessing another player. Bzzt, if you think someone's scum you look for the manipulation in their posts, not rely upon them for greater insight. Ether's also probably scum.

Fritzler
Early vote on Thesp could have been part of a coordinated pregame strat to get Thesp run up for a claim...

Glork
Makes a visible point of not being part of the Thespwagon attempt. Doesn't question sv or discourage her from claiming when she's run up to L-2 for pretty much no reason. Voted MGM yet wanted an IH vig. Good post today, but if he's scum he had to do that to head off flak from yesterday's poor show.

MgM
He's reading the thread more carefully than most. He said a few things that made no sense, but looks to be hunting for contradictions.

MrBuddyLee

Nightfall
Comments positively on the Vote Thesp activity without actually voting Thesp. Large quantity of analysis that looks genuine. Subtle defense of Glork, unapologetic about the Andrew lynch.

Patrick
Yet another person a little weird about Glork and the early Thesp-wagon attempt. Likes the Thesp list of 4 and lightheartedly attempts to narrow attention to that list. Seems to be reading the game more carefully than most.

Thesp
Voted Andrew, never moved it. Pushed it aggressively. Created a list of four and advocated a vig of the most "useless" one in this game. A lot of overt manipulation and leading of the town. Most notably, though he was pushy about his theories and his scumlist, he didn't try to derail the IH vig even though IH wasn't on his scumlist. Looks like scum happy with the bad vig decision, making a minimal alternate vig suggestion without really trying to make it happen. Aggressive when it suits, passive when it suits. Probably scum.

Zindaras
Defends andrew, decent analysis, subtly advocates a Thesp lynch if Andrew turns up town, satisfied with the IH vig.

Why were scum happy with the IH vig and pushing it/not fighting it? Cause he was an easy target, probably not for his suspicions, which were never driven home in a convincing manner.

The sheer amount of unusual attention paid to a Thespwagon D1 leads me to believe it was part of a scum strategy discussed N0. Whether or not Thesp was a part of it, it looks like scum saw the benefit in it, and if they didn't plan it ahead of time, it looks like some followed each others' leads in making it a notable D1 event.

vote: Thesp,

mafia godfather recklessly unafraid of investigation N1 and drawing attention away from his babes of doom.

FOS: Ether, Adele

[MrBuddyLee]

407

[MrBuddyLee]

I think I typed that before I noticed Thesp's failure to contest the IH vig, which is the most glaring event in the game thus far. Read Adele's comments about sv after her claim though and you'll see why Adele stood out as scummiest before that observation about Thesp.

[MrBuddyLee]

How, and in what order, did you go about compiling the results of your analysis?

This is borderline distractive from the meat of my post.

As always, I isolate everyone's posts once a week or so and particularly after lynches, take notes on each of them, then fill in the holes with a start-to-finish read for context. I work alphabetically unless I'm short on time in which case I limit the analysis to my top 2-3 suspects.

[MrBuddyLee]

modprods: Ether, Zindy please. Day's nearly nine days old already and we haven't lynched anyone...

[MrBuddyLee]

Adele, your post on Ether moved the game forward. Your most recent post was twice as many words but doesn't appear to have stated anything particularly relevant to finding scum. Making neutral observations on Day 2 without attaching significant opinion to them is something I find detachedly scummy. Do you concur?

[MrBuddyLee]

Nah that wasn't an attack per se, I'm basically asking you to flesh out your suspicions in the next day or two.

[MrBuddyLee]

Whoa, awkward silence.

The failure of folks to comment on the Glorkwagon is curious. Scum is clearly waiting with bated breath to see how things develop, regardless of Glork's alignment.

Pipe up, scum! Do you want him lynched or not?!

[MrBuddyLee]

Thesp, are you the type of player who asks people tough questions to learn their alignment, or do you more typically lay back and wait for them to incriminate themselves?

Cause I'm not seeing a whole lot of curiosity from you.

[MrBuddyLee]

I just see Thesp as curiously passive today. Does no one else notice this? It's as notable as Glork switching from manic mode to rational mode or Ether switching from present mode to absent mode.

Also, CES got more conservative today. CDB is trying to appear more active but isn't succeeding. All of these changes in response to the lynch and the night's events. The answer to WHO IS SCUM lies in that mess somewhere.

[MrBuddyLee]

Another post by CDB attempting to appear more active.

Thesp, you asked why I wasn't voting CDB, which is a bold, somewhat manipulative question for you to ask considering I'm currently voting for you. I caught CDB as scum via a cop investigation in another game but I sat back and watched his play rather than blurt out that I had a result. He was significantly manipulative in that game, and I see him as significantly passive in this game. My read on him is lazy town. My vote's on you because while you're passive as well, your behavior change indicates a desire for self-preservation rather than town preservation. I suppose CDB's does as well, but your D1-D2 shift is stark and inexplicable. His play is consistently slack.

[MrBuddyLee]

CDB, the game was Wheel of Time.

Glork, I'd define active as not only posting, but posting substance. As an example, one is not active if they simply post a summary of events without analysis. That's trying to create the appearance of thoughtfulness and activity. Sometimes I find your manic play as an attempt to appear active, when actually you can coast through a day with that tactic and later explain it away as wily protown play instead of laziness. Sometimes you'll see Adele correct people's logic without making a statement on whether or not they're scummy--it's more conversational. Same concept.

CDB's posts don't appear to be hunting scum, or at the best, they're incomplete analyses that show limited curiosity. His reread categorizes the other eleven players according to his worldview, which is useful, except he leaves out MGM, Adele and me. At least two of those are people I see as somewhat in the spotlight. So we're left to wonder whether he's scum not truly curious about alignments or whether he's lazy town.

CES, why are you so focused on Glork's opinion of you? Your recent posts indicate you think he's scum, so wouldn't his opinion be moot in that case?

[MrBuddyLee]

This game can't proceed without Ether. She's on many people's lists of suspicions, and letting her skate for an entire day without comment would give her a distinct advantage if she's scum.

I think discussion should continue, and we shouldn't narrow our prospects too far without hearing from her. Supposedly that'll be soon.

[MrBuddyLee]

"Buy the case against MgM" is hardly an original case against him, and looks suspiciously like shuffling one's feet towards the shorter line at Wal-Mart and hoping no one notices you're cutting in.

[MrBuddyLee]

True, you have made plenty of comments on him before--I just woke up, read the thread and your post looked lazy-ish to me so I commented.

Your case against Mgm doesn't make it sound like you're significantly convinced:

I've read MgM's posts and some of the accusations against him. He's made some odd posts, and hasn't paid attention at times. As I noted before his attack on Glork was strange and felt like he was sticking to a rigid policy of just voting anyone suggesting no lynch. I don't know, there seems to be less going against him that I had first thought. I'm not sure I find him any worse than ppl like Adele or CDB.

MgM: I think the day 1 case against him was overstated. However, the defences he's used today for asking spectrumvoid to claim set off alarm bells with me. If you think someone is a powerole, you step up to defend them if needed. I am struggling to reconcile what MgM did with a pro town mindset. Interesting is how Adele said "Someone owes someone an apology, which seemed to be a way of avoiding taking a side. Last thing on Mgm is that his vote for Glork in post 465 felt strangely oppotunistic. More likely than average to be scum.

Odd posts, not paying attention, obstinacy are mealy-mouthed reasons scum use to incriminate people they know aren't scum. Can you clarify your stance on Mgm please when you get the time? It's not like you haven't posted content, but it doesn't read clearly to me.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Ether

[MrBuddyLee]

There's a certain type of "confusion" that's a hallmark of scum, and it's typically the product of a careless read. Those dirty little bastards don't need to read at all to figure out who scum are, and their skims leave telltale signs.

Town skims for different things than scum, I'd say. Clearly it's not a universal tell. And at the worst, when you vote people for skimming, you encourage them to step up their game.

I think Ether should be replaced if she doesn't post immediately. Going on vacation followed by a promised and undelivered post upon return is understandable, but not entirely considerate.

[MrBuddyLee]

Here's the thing about confusion:

"Bad" players will be confused as both town and scum. Moderate scumtell.

"Good" players, like Glork, pride themselves on attention to detail, and when they're confused in particular ways, it's less likely they're town and more likely they're lazy scum coasting while they catch up on homework or own some face in Magic. That's all I'm sayin, and I do think you can extend it to a lesser extent to more casual players.

Don't let Ether skate--no lynches yet!

[MrBuddyLee]

Thesp, can you please elaborate on your four "suspicions" for day one, how you arrived at them so easily, and why you picked just one to stick with so completely and drive home to lynch? Were your other suspicions genuine, and if so, why?

[MrBuddyLee]

Ether, can you please go into depth about your opinions of Thesp? You say you don't find his false dilemma attacks scummy. And that you're empathetic with his singleminded D1 play for some reason? What seems genuinely protown about Thesp to you thus far?

Also, please elaborate on how/why Adele is "meh".

As for Nightfall, do you really see his significant efforts as scummy? I see sincerity of suspicion and uncertainty.

Also, can we have your opinions on the rest of the players?

CDB: What's your take on Adele and MGM?

CES: You do realize your behavior today is identical to the D1 behavior of Thesp, the guy you're trying to get lynched. Why shouldn't we be voting for you instead?

[MrBuddyLee]

Any of you wagonny types... I think we're far enough into the game that if you're going to do that kinda shit, you should still accompany your votes with reasons.

For example, I foresee votes moving off Thesp right about now and I wanna know if that's because you don't find him scummy anymore or because you don't think he's lynchable today and are looking for a compromise target.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ether, I think I can pinpoint your feelings on exactly one player by reading your post history. You've managed to couch just about everything in a rich pudding of ambiguity which, while delicious, doesn't help ascertain the alignment of the chef.

Thesp appears to be reading the game carefully and picking up on nuances, but I still don't like the way he presents his suspects primarily as mantra. Patrick's deliberated ambiguity caught my eye as well. Patrick, you asked me about MGM, who's the current alternative to a Thespwagon. I think MGM's shown a healthy interest in a fair number of players, unlike Ether and Thesp, but has also been significantly defensive. OMGUSsy as well, though I've never seen that as a scum trait. I wouldn't add a vote to lynch MGM at this point.

CDB, you haven't answered my question.

CES and Thesp, you never REALLY answered my question, so I'll restate: how do you see Thesp D1 and CES D2 behavior differing?

Adele, got a read on Fritz?

mFOS: Zindaras.

Playing the lazy card for two weeks now, wagonhopping, not concerned with helping us ascertain his alignment.

[MrBuddyLee]

I was referring to the particular sentence of yours which Thesp dissected.

[MrBuddyLee]

Adele, what gives you the idea that he's flippant townie instead of flippant scum? Unsubstantiated, it looks like a lazy "read" by lazy scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

No, I'm just wondering if you could give one or two cues that led you to believe that, and what you'd have expected differently if he were scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, call me crazy but that's some genuine angst right there.

*hug*

[MrBuddyLee]

As for Nightfall, do you really see his significant efforts as scummy? I see sincerity of suspicion and uncertainty.

Please clarify what "significant effort" refers to if you want to know if I find it scummy in particular.

No, I'm serious! I'd love to sort this out.

Are you kidding me? After all this time, you come back to clarify the definition of "significant effort"? Ridiculously dilatory tactics this close to deadline.

I'll respond in brief to highlight the incomprehensibility of your request. Nightfall's probably given us more analytical content to work with than any other player. The only problem at this point is that he's gone alphabetically and left out MGM->Zindy (5 players, 1-2 of whom are scummy). But if you do anything other than skim his posts, you'll see he's made evaluative remarks on dozens of specific passages, which 1) is a sign he's not lazy scum and 2) is more and more difficult to do and fake curiosity and uncertainty as the amount of analytical comment grows.

So I'll repeat the question. Can you please explain what pattern of deception you see in Nightfall's posts, Ether? Your consistent votes on him look to be for incredibly shaky reasons.

unvote; vote: Nightfall

I really don't see any point whatsoever to his new posting style, and I probably still wouldn't if I was at the height of my mental health. A few paragraphs of personal opinion, please; I trust the filter for the rest.

Mgm is more scum than Thesp but less scum than Nightfall. Channel's somewhere up there if Nightfall and Mgm really can't provide leads, yeah, whatever. (Speaking of leads, Adele is meh; could somebody resummarize the Adele/Mgm connection?)

Not only were Nightfall's attacks on me stretchy, they were stretchy

from other people

. I don't see much in his PBPs, particularly the one on me... Anyway, this paragraph is getting long. Let's just kill him.

vote: Nightfall

)

[MrBuddyLee]

After some malarkey that happened earlier in the thread combined with the death of the vig, I am watching for a few reactions before deciding whether or not to trust Adele's claim.

[MrBuddyLee]

Looking at where all the votes are at the moment, and assuming Adele is cop, Thesp's stock goes down, my vote on Ether gives me less confidence, and Zindaras looks more appealing as a suspect. If we had five days to make this decision, I think I'd switch my vote to Zindaras, but with only a few hours til deadline I'm rooting for a stampede to Ether. Tough call, but I'm going to roll with the hypothesis that she's scum trying to coast by on appearances alone and pluck at the eyeballs of the weak sheep in the flock. Her ho-hum assault on Nightfall is the clincher--read it yourselves and see if it leaves an aggressive scumhunting aftertaste on your palate.

If Thesp gets lynched and turns up town, I think it's fairly clear who gets run up tomorrow. If he's scum, I think Zindy and Glork have some splainin to do. I suppose I will as well, to a lesser extent.

I'll try to post again before deadline--there's a lot to process in light of the two possible confirmed innocents. Everyone please weigh in.

Adele, why didn't you investigate Thesp last night?

[MrBuddyLee]

I could probably be persuaded to move to Thesp if I don't get my way, though.

Since that initial list has posted, MGM/Adele have risen to the top of my list. My Ether suspicion is in something of a stasis, and Thesp/CDB have slipped a bit.

Right now, I don't plan on moving to Thesp unless we get another deadline and we need a lynch on somebody.

Guys, I don't think Thesp is the play.

I want MGM or Adele killed dead today. Period. I'm at the point where I don't think I'd even support a Thespwagon for the sake of attaining a lynch. If we have to NL, so be it.

A lot of interest in the Thesp topic and yet somewhat uncharacteristic waffling.

I also think Glork has been particularly gentlemanly towards Ether despite her exhibiting the kind of play that he typically goes after aggressively.

Plus, he hasn't called me stupid yet this game, which is a very bad sign imo.

[MrBuddyLee]

I understand that, Glork, it's just that your stated shifts in opinion look out of proportion to evidence at hand. Pretty radical shifts, and they look potentially opportunistic based on the way the wind was blowing at the time.

[MrBuddyLee]

No vote from Fritz to start the day is uncharacteristic--looks like he's waiting to see where things move. Also not impressive that his vote was on Adele at the end of yesterday. Worse, Patrick's was on MGM, and Patrick checked in to discuss but chose not to move his vote. His attempt to coast past that error on his part without an apology makes him AND Thesp look a little suspect, and makes Zindy look a little less suspicious. I would expect the difficulty finishing off Thesp if there were two scum laying off his wagon end of day yesterday.

Thesp, what do you think of Fritz, Ether and Patrick, Glork, CES and their end-of-day behavior yesterday? If you are town, you must have a unique perspective on behavior surrounding your wagon yesterday.

Fritz, you hammer, it's your thing. Why the hesitation to hammer Thesp?

[MrBuddyLee]

I find it intriguing. I don't think Fritzler is scum (in particular, in your initial paragraph for both of us to be scum would require unusual interaction in thread).

Would you be referring to this interaction:

I still think he's town for other outweighing reasons that I don't care to divulge.

or one of the interactions where Fritz says you're a terrible lynch? Please clarify, Thesp, cause your comment looks like the kind of flippant thing a partner of Fritz would say to brush past his blatant protection of you if you're both scum. I see no unusual interaction between the two of you that indicates there's no way you're aligned.

I also think "difficulty finishing me off" yesterday may be attribued to townies having genuine concerns about not lynching me, timing, or a combination thereof. Also note while you argue there might be "difficulty finishing off Thesp if there were two scum laying off his wagon end of day yesterday", inversely it would have been easier for scum to have finished me off

if they weren't already on it

. (I doubt scum would have gotten much serious attention yesterday if they'd placed the final vote on me, using the need fir

some

lynch as an excuse.) Notably, that notches down a bit of suspicion of Ether for not voting me.

OK wait. So the most reasonable explanation is that you're town and all three scum were already on your wagon, and the remaining five or six townies all had genuine doubts about your guilt to the point of foregoing a lynch altogether? (Making them look FOSable in the process) Cause the way I see it, it's much more likely that you're scum and your scumpartners weren't willing to pile on. Ether in particular REALLY tried to make it sound like she was all set to hop aboard your train, and then just inexplicably DIDN'T. And Fritzler and Patrick appeared so paralyzed by the situation that they didn't even bother to move their votes off the cop and her confirmed innocent because they had two alternatives:

1) Move off and onto YOU.
2) Move off and onto someone we had no chance of lynching, which would make them look nearly as bad.

Town wouldn't worry about appearances as much and would move the vote, imo. One of those two could be an accident, TWO in the same 48 hour span is WAY too coincidental, which would imply that you're scum with at least one of the three of them.

We're talking about players here who hammer for a living, and often for kicks. The fact that they didn't, and behaved the way they did, stinks to high hell, which does not reflect well upon you, Thesp.

[MrBuddyLee]

Please explain why you've voted me, and FoSed Fritz, yet you've said nothing about Ether and MBL. Yes, MBL could also have hammered. And now he pops up and is critisising others for not doing so.

MBL - Please explain ASAP why you're critisising people who didn't hammer Thesp, even though you didn't hammer him either. Your Ether vote was pretty useless; it's not as if she was ever going to be lynched when it was within her power to hammer Thesp.

This looks REALLY bad, Patrick. I could ask you in a pedantic manner to explain the differences between the various failures-to-hammer, but it's so flagrantly obvious at this point that I won't beat the dead horse.

As for my own failure to hammer, I'm a conservative player and would generally prefer to no-lynch rather than hammer a good player I'm not certain enough is scum. I tend to believe that scum will be caught by more aggressive means and not by HOPING a lynch is successful. If Thesp is town, he'd be a valuable asset to lose, and that factors in as well.

My Ether vote useless? That's positively laughable and a pretty downright scummy thing for you to say, Patrick. Considering that Ether was the 2nd leading vote-getter at the time, you'd have to be implying that in general, everyone should abandon the #2 to pile on the #1 wagon at the end of a day or else their vote's useless and scummy. I'll also note that Thesp slipped onto the Etherwagon end of day, which could have easily been distancing in case he got hammered as scum, AND Ether avoided hammering Thesp even though she said she probably would.

Useless vote? Hugely disproportionate, reaching attack by you, Patrick. To insinuate that I lose my right to attack by not hammering OR that the various failures to hammer are equivalent in any way is bizarre.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, you seem to be missing the point entirely and perhaps intentionally because it's so damning.

We find scum by watching your votes and vote movement.

You had a vote on MgM and an FOS on Zindaras. Adele claimed cop with an innocent on MgM with very little time left. WHERE/WHETHER you moved your vote off MgM to near deadline would give us a ton of information on you and the person you moved to. You posted, indicating awareness of the situation, and that you had a decision to make:

Still not wild about a Thesp lynch, and pondering how disasterous no lynching would be with an even number. It would make a roleblocker less useful I suppose. Ether and Zindaras definitely need looking at more tomorrow. Both lurking more than usual. Zindaras feels like he's always changing his mind and then providing poor reasons for it, or just saying it's gut feeling. I don't particularly feel like he has the thought process, then changes his suspicions, more the other way round; he changes his suspicions then tags something on to justify it. It doesn't feel natural. If it wasn't obvious, I didn't like his attack on me at all, and noticed he's still not provided any examples of what he's accused me of.

I'll be around again before the deadline.

Ether had several votes on her, and despite you indicating suspicion of her, you chose NOT to move your vote off MgM and onto Ether. Or onto your most recent FOS, Zindaras. You left it on MgM, which, absent any indication you think he's the godfather, is a sign of nervous paralysis on your part.

In your 87th post, you waffled about the pros and cons of lynching the claimed cop and curiously didn't take a stand on that issue, leaving the door open. You stated plainly you didn't want to lynch Thesp, and said you'd vote for Zindaras but no one would follow you so you didn't vote him. It looks like a post looking for traction on any of several things:

1) Looking for support in finishing off the claimed cop
2) Pre-emptively looking for an alternative to Thesp, who was the alternative to Adele
3) Looking for people to vote Zindaras so you wouldn't stand out like a sore thumb there (or alternatively, weak distancing from Zindaras)

You should tell us very plainly:

why didn't you move your vote to anyone yesterday before sunset?

[MrBuddyLee]

fake prediction: our third and final power role will play incredibly lazily today, get themselves cornered into a claim, and get picked off tonight like yet another yorkie yapping at waterbugs on a florida pond.

[MrBuddyLee]

Interesting interpretation of MGM -- claims that MGM assumes Glork/Andrew to be pro-town. Mind explaining this, MBL?

Andrew made the nolynch suggestion. Glork seconded it, I believe, Andrew got wagoned, and that's what MGM was referring to here:

Granted, you might get a few scum on your bandwagon, but not because they're opportunists, it will be because you called the wagon on yourself

The first assumption of a townie would be that Andrew's scum who made a scummy suggestion. But MGM here implies that Andrew might get a few scum on the wagon, which is not really expected if Andrew is scum himself.

Stated another way, I would have expected MGM's comment on the behavior to be more along the lines of:

Suggesting that is scummy, and anyone who's not somewhat suspect of your behavior or considering voting you may very well be scum protecting you.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, I've been working on that but I'll give you preliminary thoughts to chew on considering I'm not happy with the directions things are headed.

I'm not pleased with the whole "woohoo Thesp didn't get lynched, he's town" sentiment. I can literally hear the collective scum sigh of relief on that one, and now they're boldly pressing on to other targets and pretending like Thesp is off the table for some reason. It sits REALLY wrong with me and the content of his posts does not explain this phenomenon in my opinion.

Ether doesn't look town at all to me, CES bothers me, Zindaras bothers me, and the CDB wagon looks suspiciously scum-driven so I'm reading the fine print on that one.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, I think the cat's out of the bag on this one so I can spread the love on this bit of advice.

A godfather might shoot for high visibility on D1 depending on their normal playstyle. D2 however they'd almost certainly shoot for high profile in order to possibly pull investigations away from any of their scumpartners who might be in trouble. That behavior would be expected to possibly reverse or at least cease to be a priority when Adele claimed.

There are a few players who appear to fit this profile of ramping it up D2. See if you can spot them...

[MrBuddyLee]

Explain this. Thesp and I have pushed CDB the most by far, and Fritz hopped aboard recently. A few other people have expressed passing suspicions of CDB, but nobody else has decided to ride the gravy train. You call Ether, CES, and Zindaras suspicions -- and none of them have expressed much suspicion of CDB (if any at all). Yet you think CDB's wagon is "suspiciously scum-driven"?

Just how many scums do you think are in this game?

Taking the hypothesis that either Ether and/or Thesp is scum, which I believe is significantly likely to be true, that would mean that their scumpartners would be feverishly working on alternate wagons. Does that mean everyone on alternate wagons is scum? No, duh, cause it takes as many townies as scum to lynch a townie at this point. But if people are softpedaling Ether and Thesp and shuffling feet towards CDB I'm watching them.

The CDB wagon looks to me like people ignoring the elephants in the room to swat a bee. He also does not smell like a rose, but when Thesp and Fritz move on him like that--two people I saw potential alignment in yesterday--I'm wary.

[MrBuddyLee]

he may get knocked down a notch

when

CDB turns up scum

Early morning slip of the wrist?

FOS: Glork

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: ChannelDelibird.

I've spotted something very naughty. I suggest the rest of you read his posts with a fine-toothed comb if you already haven't.

[MrBuddyLee]

That's L-1 by the way. And yeah, he's

definitely

the right lynch today.

If CDB turns up town and I die tonight, go after the people who pushed his wagon for certain. Do NOT let them off the hook.

If he comes up scum and I'm dead, look into Nightfall, CES, Zindy and eventually MgM later in the game.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one but if I'm not, Fritz or Thesp is taking the fall, not me.

Seriously, everyone who checks this thread should reread CDB's posts carefully and give their thoughts. There's something significant in there but I missed it the first two times through.

[MrBuddyLee]

ohoho, now wait a minute. Was that L-1 too close for comfort? Did I call your bluff on your bus attempt?

I'm going to hold you to that promise to lynch CDB regardless of how things play out. I've seen this play before in Light's Out and it didn't end well there. And before you ask as usual if I'm being dense, the answer is no.

[MrBuddyLee]

If CDB turns up town I really don't expect you, Thesp or Fritz to die overnight. If he turns up scum, Thesp'll be the most confirmed town due to the persistent 3-day push. His railing on CDB doesn't look like busing to me, even though you suggested earlier today that you saw a link between them.

I have notes on Glork and Thesp that are now somewhat irrelevant thanks to CDB and his poor choice of words. I found Glork to be overly protective of Thesp and I found Thesp to have an overly narrow focus, which I don't see as protown.

Time to pipe down and let others chime in. Sorry.

[MrBuddyLee]

Now I am positive CDB should die. Please vote him posthaste.

[MrBuddyLee]

Why aren't you willing to do the legwork yourself and see who else is willing to?

[MrBuddyLee]

CDB, I would be fascinated to see you talk about various people--preferably in some detail. If you're really the roleblocker, who are the three scum and who's town and why?

[MrBuddyLee]

I dont like how that came across. What if we just cant find what your talking about?

I didn't mean it that way, sorry. I meant that even if you don't find exactly what I'm referring to, we'll be able to gauge your township to some extent by your willingness to make the effort. I also think scum typically sounds awkward talking about their scumpartner, so if CDB's a dirtbag, I wanna see everyone analyze his post history.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not going to feed you people evidence without some proof you've worked for it. More important than lynching one scum is seeing how people react to a comment like mine, and I'm fascinated by the lackluster responses thus far. There hasn't been a SINGLE PBPA on CDB in the two weeks since my post indicating positivity of his scumminess. Yet I know you can't all be scum. Which means that some of you are lollygagging town waiting for my copness or sheer insightful genius to irrevocably confirm his scumminess for you.

It aint gonna happen. This is my last game on this site for a while and I'm pretty much completely sick of lazy town. You present your own thoughts and prove to me you give a $#!& about finding scum so I can differentiate you from scum. Thanks.

ps. I have a good idea who CDB's partners are. There are like 4 of you.
pps. mmm beer

[MrBuddyLee]

Yesterday I read the thread in light of the aggression of the push on CDB, and in I found a lot of insincere wording of suspicions on his part. He was a very good lynch in light of a) his inherent scumminess and b) the fact that he'd yield info on several key players. But more importantly, based on Glork's behavior, I was convinced that he was the cop, and that he was doing a crappy job of disguising it. I tried to muddy the water to distract from what I thought were overly blatant hints on his part, in an attempt to cover his ass and maybe buy him an extra investigation. So that was my genius insight on CDB...

As backup cop, would Fritz have had investigations the nights Adele investigated? Or do you think his card implies he too was a full cop and got to investigate every night?

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, I have a problem with your theory:

End of Day 2 Vote Count

Thesp: 6 (ChannelDelibird Cogito Ergo Sum Adele Mgm Glork Zindaras)
Ether: 3 (MrBuddyLee Nightfall Thesp)
Mgm: 1 (Patrick)
Adele: 1 (Fritzler)
Nightfall : 1 (Ether)

Not voting: Mr Stoofer

I reread Ether's posts surrounding the failure to Thesp-lynch and don't think her dithering looks guaranteed genuine. Your logic that she's not scum because she didn't hammer in a hammerable situation would imply that MBL, Nightfall, Thesp, Patrick, Ether are protown and the remaining scum are in {CES, MGM, Glork, Zindy}. I see Glork and MgM as significantly townish, which would narrow that list to {CES, Zindy} in my eyes. In light of your theory about Ether not hammering, can you please update your list of suspicions?
===============================================
I agree Thesp was probably Fritz's N1 target. I started rereading Thesp when Fritz's death came up, and have the following comments and questions. I don't think Thesp is on the table for today--view this as grist for later days if we don't hit a godfather.

Thesp suspecting MBL, Nightfall, Andrew, CDB early... weak scumpartner in the midst of a bunch of town is a possibility.

Bold play possibly shooting for an investigation.

Has a problem with my expression of multiple scumtheories.

Finds CDB “disconcerting”. Odd choice of words. And Zindy's posts “seem odd”.

Makes a point of agreeing with Glork about “a bunch of townies ripping each other apart”. If Thesp is scum this would be interpreted as a segue to lynching lurkers like CDB, Ether and Nightfall.

Good, nuanced questions to CDB in his 40th post that don't look insincere.

Lazy reply to MBL's question about his D1 suspicions. Revisionist history of D1 suspicion list: drops Nightfall, keeps MBL and CDB on list.

Pretty involved interaction with CDB twice in a week. Shows a detailed level of questioning CBD about a particular passage, not once but twice.

Differentiates his D1 behavior from CES's D2 citing “same fervor, different substance”. Does not bite on the invitation to go into detail on CES. But he did FOS CES a few posts earlier for an unrelated violation (“the old 1-2”).

His clearest call to lynch CDB:

ChannelDelibird is exhibiting the classic characteristics of scum silently pushing terrible wagons, showing up only when called on. This must stop, and lynching him is the way to do it.

Switches to Adele for practical (survival) reasons while reiterating CDB hate.

Defends Glork for “putting last nail in his coffin”, WIFOM too obvious to be busing? At the time, Glork+Thesp looked like a legit scumpair.

Takes offense at Glork's accusation that Thesp tried to hug Glork tightly on the way down.

States he'll be lynched by deadline * major faux pas. Innocent?

In response to MgM:

I think the people who didn't lynch me are pretty telling.

Thesp, can you please elaborate upon this statement?

Zeroes in on my godfather comments and pooh poohs them. (I'd also pegged him as a likely godfather the previous day).

Notes one comment of mine pressing CDB:

I echo MrBuddyLee's request for ChannelDelibird's input on various people.

But is also pretty much the only person not to express curiosity about my reasons for sudden shift on CDB.

I have used the “persistent push on one scumpartner” before to great effect. I think Thesp's overall behavior has been scummy, but his behavior specifically towards CDB seems like a genuine push on an unknown, not an attack on a scumpartner. I'd lean significantly town on Thesp at this point based on the nature of his attack on CDB, plus the likely investigation. CES's insta-vote on Thesp seems bizarre to me, and that's where my next reread is going.

CES, how does lynching a likely investigated innocent work out as the mathematical best choice today? Please enlighten us.

FOS: CES

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm however working on finding the final scum. I've already eliminated Glrok, Zindaras and Mgm.

Odd choice of words considering there are two scum remaining.

vote: CES

[MrBuddyLee]

Oh. I believe my vote makes three, so I'll leave it on.

Glork, why were you so certain about CDB yesterday? Why are you shying away from CES today?

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, your theory's a load.

I really get the feeling that MBL knew CDB was

screwed

scum, likely because of a Cop investigation, so he decided to look like one of the guys taking CDB down, and then he became responsible for the nightkill of Fritz.

Great detective work ace, I've already pointed out that I voted CDB because I thought you were a cop with a guilty on him. It's going to be painful to go back and reconstruct why, but I'll do so and it oughta make perfect sense. I was trying to draw heat away from you, so it's not surprising people are on my ass today.

It was this exchange that turned my head 180 degrees:

Ether doesn't look town at all to me, CES bothers me, Zindaras bothers me, and the CDB wagon looks suspiciously scum-driven so I'm reading the fine print on that one.

Explain this. Thesp and I have pushed CDB the most by far, and Fritz hopped aboard recently. A few other people have expressed passing suspicions of CDB, but nobody else has decided to ride the gravy train. You call Ether, CES, and Zindaras suspicions -- and none of them have expressed much suspicion of CDB (if any at all). Yet you think CDB's wagon is "suspiciously scum-driven"?

he may get knocked down a notch

when

CDB turns up scum

Early morning slip of the wrist?

FOS: Glork

Quite intentional, actually.

And then I went back further and found the following:

Can we just pressure Ether, lynch CDB, and go to night?

:knowstuff: [/Fritz]

I also think that his suspicion of CDB was pretty much right on the mark.
Probably Scum:
CDB

I still believe that Thesp is very likely pro-town.

In the meantime, I want to lynch somebody that I am

sure

is scum. And that person is CDB (or Zindaras, probably).

You were way too certain of Thesp being town, and the only way I could explain that was that you knew his suspicions of CDB were accurate and you read him as not busing a scumpartner for three straight days. I debated briefly whether your hints were too blatant to be a cop but I figured also that if you were a cop who found Thesp suspicious, you would have investigated CDB in order to essentially get two results for the price of one. So I spent the rest of the day obfuscating, trying to blur the situation and gambling that you would live to get us another result. And gambling that if I was wrong about you being a cop or CDB being scum that I could survive my miscalculation today by pointing out my thought process.

[MrBuddyLee]

It wasn't anything CDB posted, it was my significant belief that you were a cop with a guilty on him, and I was willing to play along and cover your ass by pretending I found something in CDB's posts that would explain why he was THE lynch. People running around looking for that was supposed to distract from any thought there might be a cop.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm guessing you're hopped up on Easter wine or something cause this aint that complicated... think it through based on my last couple posts and get back to us.

[MrBuddyLee]

No, I read his posts before that exchange and after that exchange and found him to probably be either lousy town getting picked on by scum Thesp or scum himself. But that's a whole separate issue.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one but if I'm not, Fritz or Thesp is taking the fall, not me.

Trying to steer scum towards Fritz and Thesp as the instigators of the CDB wagon and away from youCop.

ohoho, now wait a minute. Was that L-1 too close for comfort? Did I call your bluff on your bus attempt?

More of same.

And before you ask as usual if I'm being dense, the answer is no.

Time to pipe down and let others chime in. Sorry.

Messages to you to stfu and stop being so obvious about your guilty result. I honestly thought this was a no-brainer.

[MrBuddyLee]

I wonder why he was looking for cops to begin with, that's a scum job - at least at that point in the game. The town was under the impression there was a roleblocker, so even the assumption there's a second cop means he was thinking like a scumbag (scared of coppish players). We know they found the last cop, so they must've spent time during the day to find him.

MBL also sent us on a wild goose chase for non-existent information which left us with less time to follow real leads.

FOS: MBL

Definitely on the scummy list.

Wow is this a scummy, misleading post. Let me count the ways.

I wonder why he was looking for cops to begin with, that's a scum job

1) I wasn't "looking for cops to begin with", I was trying to match up players' firmness of suspicions with the reasoning behind them, to see who was blowing smoke up people's arses about their top suspect. Glork often overexaggerates his positivity, but he's more likely to do it on D1/2. So when he posted indicating near-certainty of Thesp's innocence, followed by certainty of CDB's guilt, I had to read Glork specifically to find out whether that perspective could be supported by his arguments or not. And in the process I learned that he was the cop. So your insinuation about my actions is misleading--I was looking for disproportionately aggressive scum.

The town was under the impression there was a roleblocker

2) The town wasn't under the impression that there was a roleblocker at the time I made my "discovery". In fact, you could argue that my piling on the wagon was what led to CDB's bull claim, because the timeline went: Thesp, Glork, Fritz, MBL, CDB fakeclaims. You didn't take the time to understand my actions in the context of gamestate, which is something I see scum as more likely to do than town.

We know they found the last cop, so they must've spent time during the day to find him.

3) Yeah, I ended up finding a cop yesterday. But it was the wrong one. You conveniently left that leap of logic out of your explicit case against me.

In other words, it's fine for you to lie your ass off and explain yourself after the fact

4) The underlying tone in your post is unhappiness that CDB was caught...

And yes, as a matter of fact, it is ok to lie in this circumstance. From the logic you've constructed, I'm assuming that you'd have wanted me to say "hey hey hey CDB is scum cause I think a cop found him guilty that's my explanation and im stickin to it". I had that option, and I chose deception seeing as how it could buy us at least one more investigation. I asked people to read CDB and comment, which was a tactic intended to move votes and help spot scum commenting blithely about their scumpartner.

I was even considering claiming cop at the end of yesterday in order to draw the heat--that's how certain I was that Glork was a cop. The only reason I didn't is because I thought he might misinterpret my actions and do something stupid like counterclaim.

At the time of these events yesterday, I was near the top of everyone's pro-town lists best I can remember. I can't imagine scum would have taken the risk that I took. Graaaaaaaaaaaaaah. I saw a cop about to get himself whacked and I took the chance to cover his tracks.

Glork, can you please explain how you became certain Fritz was a cop? I couldn't rationalize your behavior yesterday in any other way than that you were a cop, so now that I see you were acting on faith alone, your certainty of CDB's guilt disturbs me.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, the only metagame I've ever thought I had on CES is that he's chattier when he's scum. I do know that I always want to lynch him for being unhelpful, and in fact I've used him as a foil at least twice when I was scum because his nonsensical suspicions opened him up to easy endgame mislynches. I voted him this game for crappy suspicions plus what I thought was a linguistic slip--I think his behavior has definitely been scummy in this game.

[MrBuddyLee]

Please prod or replace Zindaras.

[MrBuddyLee]

Stoofer wrote that post for you, didn't he?

Zindy, can you please tell us who your gut tells you is scum based on your skimming/lurking, and briefly why?

[MrBuddyLee]

Ether/Nightfall:
Ether "okay with a Zindilynch". Followed by a post with pretty much no analytical content about Zindy. And then the reiteration of eight points against Nightfall. I find most of them unconvincing and stretches of the imagination, and but this one was a legit albeit unusual observation:

Nightfall adds a summary at the end of his Channel PBP--this format made it the odd one out

and led me back to Nightfall's PBP post to see if Ether's reaction was what I'd consider appropriate.

Nightfall on Adele: he states flatly whether he agrees or disagrees with her most prominent D1 points.
on CDB: same, with added summary expressing potential concern after agreeing with most of CDB's D1 actions.
on CES: agrees and disagrees, finds fishing "odd".
on Ether: paints more vividly, alternatively attacking and defending. Points out "misunderstanding" by Ether twice and "don't know if this is scummy in itself". Appears to be genuinely trying to ascertain the nature of Ether's attacks.
on Fritz: uses Fritz's inactivity to defend himself and necessarily doesn't find Fritz scummy.
on Glork: focuses on Glork's playstyle. hesitant to directly attack Glork but makes passive-aggressive attacks seemingly designed to implicate.
Does not PBP on: MGM, MBL, Thesp, Zindy, etc (appears to have gone alphabetically)

Nightfall treats Glork with great caution trying not to give him fuel to counterattack with--apprehension is palpable and they are not likely scum together. He somewhat takes the township of Fritz for granted. He is using instances of Ether's "confusion" to draw suspicion upon her. Did not fuel the Adelewagon. Minimal analysis of CDB's minimalist play. Took a hard look at each of CES's D1 votehops.

What Ether pointed out is not what stands out to me about Nightfall's PBP. At all. The two things that stand out to me are the degree of second degree analysis (how he feels about what X said about Y), which I see as pro-town. And the choice to progress alphabetically as opposed to choosing a set of most likely suspects, which I don't see as pro-town at all. What she pointed out about Nightfall's D3 behavior is not accurate--he stated several times that he wasn't convinced of CDB's scumminess and indicated that was based on rereadings.

Ether's shooing people away from the CESwagon based on her opinion of Nightfall, not based on CES's actions. Her comments on CES are that she won't even try to read him, that she's waiting for other alignments before judging CES, and that "His Thesp fanaticism is getting in the

way

(italics hers); otherwise, I'd hardly care. I won't touch CES in the near future unless Nightfall dies as town".

Zindaras:
If he has limited time, his decision to chip away at the game with PBPAs from day one is bizarre. He had to know he likely wouldn't make it to D4's posts, and I see commenting on D1 only as suspiciously safe behavior. I asked him for gut, as I'm sure he's skimmed/followed the thread, and he hemmed and hawed rather than spitting it out. The biggest hole in this game is info about connections between Zindy and anyone. In subsequent days, survivors should look at who strayed in tone and zeal from expected behavior re zindy: expression of dismay and disappointment and moderate suspicion for lurking.

CES:
Very selective in who he attacks and who he doesn't. Got fixated on Thesp and is riding it. Takes no pokes at me, one FOS of Ether and one vote on Nightfall and no other comments on validity, one brief poke at and FOS of Patrick. Says MGM is town, Patrick is town, Glork is town, Zindy is town. These suspicions and lack thereof look about as considered as you'd get from a RNG. Not only is there no explicit reasoning behind his suspicions, but I can't conceive of the "worldview" that would lead him to his current and apparently firm beliefs.

CES, why are Zindy and Patrick town in your book?

Glork:
I read him as cop and when rereading today in a different light I see a few things. His attacks on Zindaras look like someone going through the motions. He voted Ether for a heretofore unexplained reason, then after a "confusing" post by her, unvoted and not only revoted Zindaras but added me as a major FOS, erasing any hint of his Ether suspicions. Appears to be purely sheeping onto Nightfall, as he's given nearly no analytical comments on Nightfall's lengthy posts. His vacillation between Ether and Nightfall seems incomprehensible.

April 5:

Vote Ether

April 20:

Pretty sure I remember saying "HAY ZINDIE, POST OR DIE" and "I like Ether's attack on Nightfall."

April 25:

Unvote, Vote: Nightfall

Glork, I want to hear more on this turnaround. Also, the case that you're cooking up against me looks remarkably like the case I'm considering with regards to your play yesterday:

dirty scumbag jumping aboard to bus his scumbuddy

(he) knew CDB was screwed, likely because of a Cop investigation, so he decided to look like one of the guys taking CDB down, and then he became responsible for the nightkill of Fritz.

I reread your post history and actually spotted the moment when you realized Fritz was a cop. It was March 16th, halfway through your post, and you suddenly realize Thesp is about to be publicly cleared and you start linking people left and right to CDB. Zindaras, Ether, Nightfall, MGM, MBL, Patrick. Followed less than an hour later by your "knowstuff" comment. And then this odd remark:

I still believe that Thesp is very likely pro-town.

You were suspicious of Thesp as a potential scumpartner of CDB up until halfway through your (Analysis III) when you spotted a coptell. "still believe" implying that you've believed that for some time? Cause you definitely hadn't. You appear to be attempting to anchor yourself as a Thespophile and CDB antagonist, instead of explaining yourself, which would have been unfeasible regardless of your alignment. You attack me for nearly identical behavior, which I don't understand you doing if you're town who just went through a similar revelation as you say you did.

I'd also like to hear you explain why you thought Fritz was a cop and not CES or Thesp.

Patrick:
Dingling around with MGM at the start of the day, somewhat defensive in the face of attacks from an "innocent". Brief analysis of the CES wagon and asks for some literature on its pros and cons. Expresses unambiguous preference for a Zindy death, stating there's a "strong case" for it. Theorizes that scum were not on the CDB wagon and were on the CES wagon, which by process of elimination gives us only Nightfall. Patrick wasn't thrilled to be linked to Nightfall, hasn't found Nightfall scummy most of the game, said twice that he wasn't watching Nightfall closely. Curious focus on disentanglement.

Patrick, what do you think of the case Ether made against Nightfall in March?

[MrBuddyLee]

Requesting an extension. I want to hear more from Zindaras, and I think we're not done with today, even though the day's grown insufferably long.

Glork, your posts D1/2 re: CDB are unremarkable. His posts regarding you don't strike me particularly as aggressive framing of town or distancing from a scumpartner. Him saying you were "strange" is the closest I see to anything notable, as it caught my eye as possible sloppy distancing.

Patrick, I don't like the push on Nightfall and think either-and-or Ether, Glork CES could be scum fomenting it. Nightfall's D1 posts still read to me as earnest town. The resistance to the CES-wagon (and Zindy-wagon that never materialized) comes in the form of the Nightfall wagon. Ether gives a list of ho-hum reasons, Glork sheeps and CES super-sheeps. Glork is pushing Nightfall as "today's play", CES is there "for the moment" and Ether is convinced. Nightfall considers suicide to be potentially beneficial to town, which is bizarre.

Thesp is a very good player who I could see spotting a weak scumpartner D1 and deciding to push for his lynch until he drops. However, he's off the table as far as I'm concerned due to gamestate and odds.

Zindaras appears to be reveling in the fact that despite being a zero factor, no one's willing to lynch him. I don't see that as pro-town, and if the average person is 25% likely to be scum, I'd put Zindy more at 40% due to the way he's floated in and out.

MgM's on me, and I fully expected town to take a serious look at my actions yesterday and wonder WTF. I also expected scum to take a poke or two at making hay, but I think Glork's attacks on me look more like a wolf hunting weak sheep than MgM's. All game, MgM has done illogical things but his tone seems fairly thoughtful.

Zindaras 40%
CES 30%
Glork 30%
Ether 25%
Nightfall 20%
Patrick 20%
Thesp 35% / 2 = 17%
MgM 20% / 2 = 10%

[MrBuddyLee]

Bleh, lack of activity.

For filler, I'll state that one way I approach scumhunting is to look for posts that I don't think scum could make. They're pretty rare, but once in a while I spot a post that simply reeks of genuine.

Patrick, Nightfall, Ether and MgM have made such posts in this game. I haven't gone back to pick out the specific posts and don't really care to, but I made mental notes as such at the time. I just wanted to state for the record that if any one of them is scum, they had a moment of genius at one point and completely and utterly bamboozled me.

Thesp, Glork, CES, and especially Zindaras, no such vibes from any of their posts. Glork came close once or twice but he's a good enough player that I hold him to a higher standard when looking for sincerity in his words.

disclaimer: this technique isn't by any means 100% successful but it's worked more often than not.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Zindaras

[MrBuddyLee]

Thanks for the homework. Like I said, it was something I noted at the time but didn't write down. I'll see if I can spot those posts when I have time, but off the top of my head, for Patrick it was a post where he got pissed about something and for Nightfall it was one of his PBPA posts.

[MrBuddyLee]

Zindaras should be lynched.

Discuss.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm waiting for you to state your case against Zindaras, Mr. Sheepy McSheeperson. I've been the one doing the legwork lately and you've been the one hopping on wagons.

Mush.

[MrBuddyLee]

Thank god, we can actually play the game now. I would have rather seen Zindy lynched to see who was too chicken to do so, but this works. It seems at least one scumbag was afraid to push for the easy and obvious town lynch there, meaning we're dealing with at least one, if not two, crafty sleazebags. Patrick has been riding Zindy ass for days, while Glork and Thesp tiptoed on and off, Glork less deftly. Of the three, I see Glork as the scummiest with regards to Zindy, but I will reread carefully to be sure of that. As for the people who avoided Zindy, you should all read them specifically to see WHY the scum amongst them was afraid to even poke at Zindaras. I thought he could be scum, so why didn't these people? Someone wanted us to do their dirty work for them, and I imagine it'll be readable in their posts because they'll show too much deference to the "terribly scummish-looking lurker who'll eventually turn up town and cause a finger-pointing dramabomb".

Glork, your hyperbole knows no bounds. I'll enjoy parsing your phony angst over the next little bit and seeing if there's any sincerity mixed in or if you're being manipulative without substance behind it. A first read wasn't flattering to you, I must say.

I've been hunting for scum more diligently than you for the past day, and you try to paint the opposite story. It's ludicrous--you look like the opportunist amongst us and yet you're making me out to be that person? I wanted to see your DEFENSE of Zindaras, because it was the only way we were going to get any useful info out of his inevitable modkill or lynch. He certainly wasn't going to provide any links to other players himself, regardless of his alignment. I had two paragraphs of case against Zindy typed out at one point and then decided to delete it, deciding I needed to know who had the stones to present the same argument. Unfortunately the mod didn't give anyone time to lay out that case as momentum slowly built, but to be honest I didn't see anyone else but Patrick willing to make it in the past month. And Patrick's case wasn't quite right in my book but at least it was SOMETHING attacking the scummy lurker probablyscumguy. You specifically said you wanted to see other people's cases in order to help you decide, which strengthened my resolve not to lay out my case until you or someone else did. You AVOIDED analyzing Zindy appropriately, which is unlike you.

The last game in which you pushed my lynch inappropriately, Glork, (and the only game I've ever been lynched as town) you held your breath and kicked and screamed for a good week or two, but didn't manage to make any more sense than you are now. I've read your case against me a couple times and the only thing I see as a bona-fide suspicion is when you make hay about my protection of you yesterday. Your attacks on me reek of looking for the most vulnerable player, rather than actually comprehending and dissecting the substance of my suspicions.

Behaving like scum for the better parts of various days: CES, Ether
Ramping up the hysteria wagon to what end: Glork
Probably Town: Nightfall, Patrick
Godfatherscum or innocent: Thesp, MgM
Notscum: MBL

Wow, things are really narrowed down with Zindaras's death--I had been operating on the likely assumption that only one of you was scum. I'm going to give this game a massive reread in light of our most recent discovery.

vote: CES

ps. Glork's recent antics don't ring true to me AT ALL. He's been wrong about me in every game we've ever played together, and half the time it's because he's actually scum, and when he was scum his attacks on me felt disingenuous and overblown like this. The line that sticks in my head this game about him is when he tried to slip in that Fritzler might have had an "innocent" on Glork because of a single throw-away line. I thought that Glork was cop back then and passed over it, but his attacks have me ready to revisit some of his more inappropriate behaviors.

[MrBuddyLee]

none of the Townies (except Patrick and, to a lesser extent, Ether IIRC) really actually thought that Zindie was scum when all was said and done.

Fascinating that you seem to know who the Townies are. Slip of the tongue? It implies you know Patrick and Ether are innocent and that Thesp is scum. That thinking's somewhat out of vogue. Could be a super-sloppy misdirect away from a Glork+Patrick or an Ether+Glork as well.

Your bizarre behavior appears on the surface to be protecting CES, protecting Nightfall, or trying to mislynch because you're partnered with a godfather with an innocent on them. You could just be ranting disproportionately because it feels good to be done with school (Grats for that. ) and you're barking at the moon. But that'd be irresponsible, so the odds that you're scum are rising. Or yeah, you're just being irresponsible.

More when I have time to give this proper consideration, but your "him or me" thing sits really wrong with me. Especially when there are two players with several votes apiece on them. Sure, maybe there's something to gain by seeing people's responses to this proposal...

Right now, any mislynch will put us at lynch-or-lose, so I intend to get things right, and that's NOT by focusing on any one person. This town doesn't give me confidence they'll do the same--the treatment of Zindy was just plain wrong and permitted scum to blend right in somewhere. I will probably try to make cases more aggressively at this point after that experience.

More on the Zindaras thing later, but it really looked like he was scum, and add in the dread of facing any endgame involving two scummish players and Zindy and there's just no way he shouldn't have been at LEAST attacked stridently. And you're saying most people thought he was town? That's insane--I don't recall anyone thinking that other than CES.

[MrBuddyLee]

I don't know about Zindaras yet. I want summary cases against him so that, in the next few days, I can review them myself and see where I actually stand.

I'm also waiting for MBL to outline his case against Zindaras. I am especially interested in hearing his opinions.

Translation:

I want everyone else out on limbs on the most difficult situation to analyze in this game, so I can figure out based on which way the wind is blowing and which limb looks safest, where I'll hang my tire-swing. Break a leg.

and now a generous helping of revisionist history:

as today progressed, I obviously moved away from that (Zindy is scum) stance.

not really, you still had your toe in the pond two days ago.

the reason nobody would put forth a case against Zindaras is because players slowly realized that said case was little more than steam? The reason that Zindaras wasn't getting lynched is not because scum were too afraid to do it. It's because as it turns out, none of the Townies (except Patrick and, to a lesser extent, Ether IIRC)

really

actually thought that Zindie was scum when all was said and done.

no, scum were afraid to do it. i'm not scum, patrick is possibly but not top-tier scum, meaning that DEFINITELY one and POSSIBLY two scum were hiding from the Zindywagon, regardless of town opinions on the subject. He should have at least been run up, and the reticence to do so leads me to believe some strong-willed players made a firm decision to let other people do their dirty work, as it'd be pro-town dirty work that would result in a bad result for town. Win-win for scum to hold off--worst case, they keep Zindy around as a safe lynch when they need it.

Yes, I said that I wanted opinions to formulate my own opinion. That was... a half-truth. I was already moving away from Zindaras, but I wanted to see

why

people were attacking Zindaras because

motive

and

intent

are important at this stage.

I changed my posting behavior as a result of your "half-truth," so if you're town, understand that your untruths have consequences. Your hesitance to take a stand in this instance IMMEDIATELY caused me to reread your posts on Zindaras and also caused me to hold off on posting content in order to deny you the easy "sheeping" route on Zindaras.

As you claim to have been looking for

why

people were attacking Zindaras, I was specifically attacking Zindaras to see

"why not"

people were attacking Zindaras. If Zindaras was scum, I hoped that he'd be bothered to speak and actually draw some connections, and that maybe his scumpartner would treat him with disproportionate suspicion given the circumstances. If Zindaras was town, I also knew that scum would skitter out of the woodwork to a) paint me as scummy for pushing the lurker and b) at the same time gently support the Zindy-wagon, but for more "altruistic" reasons.

[MrBuddyLee]

Why exactly did you move it to CES and not Ether or me?
Why have you not answered my earlier questions?
What are your answers to my earlier questions?

1) If you need to ask that then you haven't been reading my posts, nor do you have an accurate understanding of my gameview. I suggest you do the legwork.
2) Because I'm on offense, and you are 28% likely to be scum, so there's a 28% chance any time I spend answering your questions is wasted. I'll answer a few of your questions here and there as I see fit, but there are apparently more of them than hours in the day. I won't answer your questions exclusively at the expense of losing my train of thought and diluting the observations I wish to make.
3) Many of those answers have been posted, some are yet to come, and feel free to restate the question(s) you see as most relevant to the current game-state.
4)

I didn't mention Thesp because I do not recall if he had voiced substantial suspicions of Zindaras. All I remember is that he seems dead-set on lynching CES

I also think his (Z's) failure to show up is potentially induced by the fact he's in a difficult (perhaps even paralyzing) situation as scum.

Thesp was voting Zindy for the better part of the past week. I find this dissonant--you honed in on my Zindy vote with your laser sight (pew pew) and yet were unaware that Thesp was the other person voting for Zindy?

[MrBuddyLee]

Something else just crossed my mind... I am left with the general impression that Glork has been protecting the players who are hunting scum least. I will reread to see if that's a consistent trend, and whether he's the only one doing it.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork a month ago:

My list is pretty much as follows (most likely to be scum at the top, obv):
CES/Zindaras
Ether
Nightfall
MGM
Patrick/MBL
Thesp
Glork

vote: Ether
vote: Zindaras
mfos: MBL
I'm guessing our last two scums are likely among {Zindaras, CES, Nightfall}.

Two weeks ago:
vote: Nightfall "Nightfall is today's play, and that the fallout from his lynch will really help steer us" (accidentally implying it'll be a mislynch?)
Thesp, are you Nightfall's godfather?

One week ago:
Patrick, would you rather lynch Nightfall or CES? I'd move to CES before the deadline.

Two days ago:
I refuse to switch to Zindaras at this point.
Vote: MBL "you're getting away with doing nothing" (horse-patootie. -ed)
"Patrick, Thesp, Ether, CES -- take a long, hard look at MBL's posts." (omits MgM, Zindy, Nightfall)

Today:
"MBL is taking advantage of the fact that Zindaras wanted to be here, but isn't" (falsehood. zindy posted 12 times in other threads since his penultimate post here.)
"He (Zindaras) isn't scum." (how the hell do you know this pre-modkill?)
Did ANYONE else besides Glork and CES feel fairly certain that Zindy was town before the modkill? That opinion is SO far out of whack with reality I can't comprehend how you reach that conclusion based on the thread.
"Push a mislynch against CES, push a mislynch against Ether (or Thesp/MGM"

Apaprent new glork order of suspicions pre-modkill:
MBL
Nightfall
Patrick
Ether
CES
MgM
Thesp
Zindaras

The fluidity of suspicion over the course of today is stunning, and I don't see how it's based on any evidence. It appears to be based entirely on MOMENTUM, which is what I'd expect to see from scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

It's based on his last 10 posts... should be obvious.

[MrBuddyLee]

So Glork,

Ether and Patrick are definitely town in your opinion?

[MrBuddyLee]

If your post was any more full of holes they'd call it Elune and sell it melted on dark rye.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm trying to ignore your egomaniacism and bluster, Glork, but if you insist...

Unlike a crow in a marble factory, I am able to maintain focus amidst distractions. You may be a shiny bauble of much interest to me at present, but I still have my sense of who's done what throughout the game and I'll vote for who I see fit accordingly. If I decide to question Thesp for a bit, and aggressively so, does this mean Thesp should start harrassing me to vote for him? No, because he's not a buffoon, and because gamestate doesn't dictate that impulsive vote. MgM has caught my eye consistently over the past few days for his baseless nonsense, but the odds are poor with an MgM lynch so I'm not voting him. If we catch the remaining non-godfather scum, I will reconsider coveting that foil ball.

By all means have your jollies badgering me, but consider yourself answered.

Please feel free to explain why Patrick in particular is off your list, and while I'm explaining why I thought pushing Zindaras was a good idea, please explain

why you knew he was town with certainty.

That whole song and dance of yours reeked to high heaven.

[MrBuddyLee]

The mod did you a huge favor by modkilling Zindaras when he did.

There's no way you could have defended that tripe unless we knew Zindy was town. My eyes just about popped out of their sockets when I read:

But I no longer for a second believe that he (Z) is scum

, and I will not stand for us to sit back doing nothing while he gets lynched or modkilled. Zindaras' absence is NOTHING like Nightson's absence in the late portions of Space Monkey Mafia.

He isn't scum.

Absolutely, positively, without a doubt, beyond the pale. And then just as things are getting interesting and we're going to learn something from your hyperbole, the mod hands you a gift in a ribbon-wrapped box. If you're scum, you essentially owe this game to Stoofer, because I think you would have been summarily demolished for your statements before Zindy was modkilled.

Now I get to go back and defend my mild press on Zindy, which you'll see was entirely proportional. Here goes.

[MrBuddyLee]

I relish exposing the Houdini job Glork's trying to pull on you all.

Here are my comments on Zindaras in the past two months:

Please prod or replace Zindaras.

If he has limited time, his decision to chip away at the game with PBPAs from day one is bizarre. He had to know he likely wouldn't make it to D4's posts, and I see commenting on D1 only as suspiciously safe behavior. I asked him for gut, as I'm sure he's skimmed/followed the thread, and he hemmed and hawed rather than spitting it out. The biggest hole in this game is info about connections between Zindy and anyone. In subsequent days, survivors should look at who strayed in tone and zeal from expected behavior re zindy: expression of dismay and disappointment and moderate suspicion for lurking.

Requesting an extension. I want to hear more from Zindaras

Zindaras appears to be reveling in the fact that despite being a zero factor, no one's willing to lynch him. I don't see that as pro-town, and if the average person is 25% likely to be scum, I'd put Zindy more at 40% due to the way he's floated in and out.

unvote, vote: Zindaras

Zindaras should be lynched.

Discuss.

Here are Glork's comments on Zindaras in the past few months:

I think I'd be happy lynching Zindaras.

Pro-town Zindie, in my experience, is usually much more observant and forceful.

Zindie and Ether probably seem the scummiest overall to me, right now.

Guarantee you right now that one of MBL/Zindaras is scum. Currently leaning towards Zindaras.

(I) Suggest lynching Zindie.

Okay, so right now I'm digging Zindaras the most, along with CES. Vote: Zindaras

As much as I don't like Zindie, I'm going to Unvote, Vote: Ether. I know she likes to lurk in her games, but I think she should be pressured into talking a lot more right now... Strong FoS: Zindaras. If you're pro-town, seriously get your act together.

I think I could dig CDB-Zindaras-Ether right now.

Interestingly enough, Zindie commits one of my favorite scumtells in 641, protecting CDB... I am loving a Zindie+CDB pairing.

I still find Zindaras to be reasonably scummy.

Probably Scum:
CDB
Zindaras

Excuse me? What do you mean "if I would look at your posts." I've looked at every post you have made up through Page 29, and I have concluded that up to this point, I think you are scum.

I don't like Zindaras, and I really don't like CDB... I want to lynch somebody that I am sure is scum. And that person is CDB (or Zindaras, probably).

Yes, Thesp. We've already established that CDB and Zindie are scum together, remember?

I'm still willing to bet that CDB/Zindaras is a scumpair... I am 100% certain that CDB is scum and

like 75% certain that Zindaras is a scumbuddy of his.

It's okay, Zindaras. We already know that you are CDB's scumbuddy. We'll just get you tomorrow, 'kay?

I don't trust you, CES; you and Zindaras are on my short list today

Vote: CES
FoS: Zindaras

Vote: Zindaras for two reasons: I also see him as a potential scumbag, and I want him to post.

Yeah, yeah, I got it.

Can we kill Zindaras now?

I'd honestly be okay with a Zindaras modkil at this point.

I'm guessing our last two scums are likely among {Zindaras, CES, Nightfall}... I think we should lynch Nightfall and ask for an overnight modkill on Zindaras. Who's with me? <.< ... I could still see Zindie/CES, Nightfall/CES, or Nightfall/Zindie, too.

Zindaras seems to be back on-site, so here's hoping that he actually makes that lifesaving post in the next day and a half or so.

I don't know about Zindaras yet. I want summary cases against him so that, in the next few days, I can review them myself and see where I actually stand... if he's not going to show up...we might as well lynch him now

I refuse to switch to Zindaras at this point.

To complete the exercise, you all should review Zindaras's posts over the past two months and see how they align with Glork's changes of heart:

I can't say I feel the CDB-hammer was a mistake.

No way in hell, Glork.

Glork, I've had an all-around drop in activity.

Which I look forward to correcting.

I am currently working on an analysis, the first part of which will be posted within a couple of hours.

(posts an analysis of THE FIRST THREE PAGES OF THE GAME ONLY, wtf)

I'm having such a horrible week.

I'll review pre-deadline.

That's it. That's absolutely ALL we had to work with from Zindaras in order to gauge his alignment.

Glorkdini has attempted to wave his hands and convince you that MY mild press against Zindaras is the disproportionate one.

On the contrary, I stated the following proportional arguments:

* Zindaras's choice to use limited time to analyze the most useless three pages of the game was a conservative, safe, scummy move
* Zindy was 40% likely to be scum, surpassing anyone else in the game
* After deadline extension, I voted Zindaras with no further comment
* I asked people to discuss the premise that Zindy should be lynched

The primary reasons I asked to discuss a Zindy lynch:

1) Without a discussion of a POTENTIAL Zindylynch the day could not possibly be complete. There's NO EXCUSE for not putting a megalurker on the block, possibly pressuring them into speaking, and getting to observe reactions and arguments pro and con. As we're seeing right now, the discussion is explosive and full of info on various players.
2) His behavior was stereotypical scum behavior in that he was obstinate, not forthcoming, and only posting in response and proportion to direct pressure.
3) He was posting in other games and not this one, making it clear that his disappearance in this game was to some extent strategic. In retrospect, perhaps he knew a modkill was inevitable due to his schedule and therefore was hoping to draw out just this type of experience.
4) My other top suspect is someone I just about always find scummy due to the limited amount of reasoned logic in their posts.

Meanwhile, Glork has gone from:

* 75% certainty that Zindy is scum (5 weeks ago)
* being ok with a Zindy modkill (a month ago)
* thinking Zindaras is scum but should be modkilled not lynched (two weeks ago)
* hoping that Zindy posts to "save his life" (two weeks ago)
* hoping that Zindy posts but if not he should be lynched (three DAYS ago)
* stating positivity that Zindy is town (just before modkill)

ALL THIS BASED ESSENTIALLY ON ON

ONE

POST BY ZINDY IN THE PAST FIVE WEEKS WHERE ZINDY ANALYZED THE FIRST THREE PAGES OF THE GAME

unvote, vote: Glork

The closer I look at your behavior over the past two months, the more it stinks. I don't see how a rational townie could carry on this internal conversation. Your suspicions aren't the LEAST bit consistent. So you're scum, or you're Sybil.

For some reason I've been putting you in the town bin, but I must be holding on to old cop vibes or something cause none of this is pro-town behavior.

[MrBuddyLee]

....so changing one's opinion over the course of a few weeks is unreasonable? Is that your argument against me? Nevermind that I made a significant change on CDB/Thesp/Fritz over the course of

days

Terrible spin in light of the content-filled posts I made.

Well, I'm heartened by the fact that you're so willing to help me make my case against you. You "changed your mind" on CDB/Fritz/Thesp because you did a PBPA and found specific comments by those players to base your arguments around.

You and Zindy? No such foundation for your change of approach.

Over a month and a half, Zindy made no posts that I can fathom would change anyone's mind about his alignment. He certainly wasn't changing mine in the least, and no amount of rereading his insignificant post history could lend further insight.

And yet as an imminent modkill (which you were lobbying for) came closer to reality, you pretended to be having second thoughts about Zindy.

Based on thin air. Entirely.

More importantly, you seemed 100% prepared to pounce upon anyone who'd make the least case against Zindy, the same case you were making extraordinarily vocally only a week earlier.

Looks calculated.

[MrBuddyLee]

Answering questions:

I'd love to know how you think you can make an even remotely solid case for lynching a lurker who's almost getting modkilled anyway

I've made clear that I wanted to have the discussion and apply pressure, not necessarily lynch Zindaras. I think I stated several times that I didn't have much to go on with Zindaras, and I asked for an extension so we could get more a) info from him b) discussion about him. It wasn't as trite as a "who finds him scummy who doesn't" thing, it was about nuance--people finding him town or scum and not giving reasons, people shifting opinions on him drastically and inexplicably.

So your question is a non-starter, because I never intended to make "a solid case" for lynching a lurker. It was an attempt to start a process.

Additionally, MgM, I'm wondering why you never got on Glork's or Patrick's cases for doing the same thing, e.g.:

if he's not going to show up...we might as well lynch him now

Mind you, a modkill was just as bad for us as a mislynch--worse in fact because we'd only learn the mod's attitude about Zindy, rather than the attitude of the eight players voting thumbs up or thumbs down.

Could you order the players by how much scumhunting they're doing, with no ties?

It's varied over the course of the game.

Nightfall appeared to be somewhat on the ball early and has given up. Did a PBPA on half the town alphabetically, which is suspect. Upped his posting when he was about to be lynched, then disappeared again. Has asked one question in the past month, and it was about himself.

Thesp was on CDB nonstop til his lynch, then switched his singular focus to CES and hasn't asked significant questions of anyone else. Made a few observations about Zindy.

CES remained almost singularly on Thesp for the first three and a half days, with a brief time-out to hammer CDB. He asked some questions appearing to prod for my alignment, but mostly made flat observations I didn't find accurate or founded. (Zindy town, MGM town, Thesp scum) Slapped a baseless vote on Nightfall at the height of that wagon with no analysis comments or questions associated.

Glork's posted a lot of content, asked a lot of questions, and seemed to be looking for answers. But so many of his conclusions are unfounded, it's hard to tell if he's actually scumhunting or merely handwaving. In the past month, he's voted every "unconfirmed" player except Patrick, which is fascinating bordering on insane.

Feb 22nd: Vote MGM
March 13th: Vote Thesp
April 4th: Vote CES
April 8th: Vote Zindaras
April 25: Vote Ether
April 25: Vote Nightfall
May 10th: Vote MBL

Ether's scumhunting posts remind me of Nightfall's in style, and she asks a few questions and has given reasons behind most of her suspicions. Her case on Nightfall is hot and cold (I do like the Nightfall-CDB link from post 21, shows research) and seems to rely on nitpicky details more than tone, much like her earlier dismissive comments about MgM.

Patrick appeared to try very hard to discern Zindy's alignment, and focused on Z, not looking significantly into others except for how they related to Zindy. Other than that he's asked a lot of procedural questions and made filler comments attempting to appear active in the past month, making several "Captain Obvious" remarks. Earlier he was more involved.

MgM: HA, I knew this would bear fruit. He's been on Patrick, Ether and I for the past two months. Gave reasons for Patrick (bad logic explaining failure to hammer Thesp) and me (cop hunting yesterday) but his constant pressure on Ether was unfounded. Until you go back two months to see:

because of Ether's decision not to hammer him (Thesp)

So MgM has been on Patrick and Ether for essentially their failure to hammer someone we currently believe Fritz found innocent. That's coasting.

MBL: Been examining people's motives for votes and shifts in suspicion.

Scumhunters

MBL
Glork
Ether recently
Nightfall early
Patrick
Thesp
CES
Nightfall recently
MgM
Ether early
Zindaras

Coasters

If you can't be bothered to type out the Zindaras case again then just say what you thought wasn't quite right about mine, what you'd have added, removed etc. And do the genuine posts thing.

Basically, I think you read too much into Zindaras's actions, which looked more lazy than malicious. Most of his comments were so offhand and unfounded, they'd never convince anyone of anything, so if he was manipulative scum he wasn't

effective

manipulative scum. Most of the things you posted were a focus on the particular, when any case I'd have made would have been more centered around his play the entire game. I've seen him hunt scum, and he wasn't doing it this game, and that's a pretty huge metagame.

Genuine posts... I'll track down yours first. Your posts #82 and #83.
Nightfall's #18 and #22
MgM and Ether, I didn't find em on skim. Ether's had to do with a comment or set of comments that was like "this person thinks this about this person thinking that" which was a multidimensional observation I was impressed with, and I forget what MgM's was.

[MrBuddyLee]

The great thing about Zindaras being dead is that all questions about people's approaches towards him can now be theoretically answered. I've long thought that scum would be hesitant to attack him if he was town, and would give brief, noncommittal comments on his behavior. Zindaras should have been brought up in parallel, raised by townies as a viable alternative to any other impending lynch. Raised by scum as an alternative to any impending lynch of scum.

Also, I figured if he was town, scum would lay groundwork to attack anyone promoting/suggesting a Zindylynch. As the lynch/modkill became imminent, scum's posturing would increase.

I was bothered by Zindaras's presence and the associated uncertainty. It came as close to making my skin crawl as a mafia game can. Anyone who seemed indifferent about the issue was more likely to be scum imo.

The evolution and avoidance of people's comments on Zindaras:

CES: Eliminated Zindy entirely as a suspect and asked him repeatedly for bandwagoning assistance.

Ether: Expressed satisfaction with possible Zindylynch for a month and a half. No opposition to a Zindy modkill. Shows modest concern about his alignment.

Glork: All over the map. Showed grave concern and discomfort and attacked Zindaras and later decided the Zindywagon was scummy based apparently on the lack of substance behind the 2-player-5-to-lynch wagon.

MgM: Against modkilling, against the lynch of Zindaras, but never expressed a case, asked Zindy a question or asked others questions about Zindy. Played it safe.

Nightfall: NEVER expressed an opinion, never prodded, coasted entirely, avoided the topic from start to finish.

Patrick: Appears to have reread Z's posts and got more out of them then there actually was. Stayed on Z for two months except for brief stints on CDB and Nightfall wagons. Asked questions about people's opinions of the Zindaras dilemma.

Thesp: Got on Z for ignoring the CDB situation. Wanted to lynch both CES and Zindaras (via modkill) today. Seemed to understand and mirror the general concern about Zindaras's alignment.

Oddly unconcerned:
Nightfall
MgM

Seemingly concerned:
Patrick
Glork
Ether
Thesp

Not concerned cause he thought Zindy was town
CES

My gut based on everything I'm currently processing:
Scum are in {CES, Glork, MgM}.

AND THEN:
Nightfall, Ether (but tone says no)

Skating lately cause they can, and probably town:
Thesp, Patrick

ppe: glork, my ability to see scum making quality, probing PBPAs differs based on the player at hand and the details of the pbpa in question.

Unvote

[MrBuddyLee]

BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[MrBuddyLee]

What do you guys think of the reactions to the Zindaras situation pre and post modkill? Reading back, it looks like two or three players were terribly nonchalant about it and/or didn't particularly try to glean info from the small wagon that formed and the reactions afterwards.

A few people have been carrying the lion's share of the burden and taking flak for expressing opinions while a few others seem to be saying as little as possible. To up the odds of hitting scum we need more interactions today with regards to events like the fall of Zindy. I think it's clear where I stood.

[MrBuddyLee]

MgM's doggedness on me led me to reread his posts to see if his mistaken suspicions could be genuine. I don't think they are. MgM's suspicions are thin, spread, and not proportional. He claims to find me the scummiest player, and the only explanation he gives is this:

I don't see why MBL needed to draw attention away from the cop - he was already hidden. And when MBL did acted, he took stubbornness to mean copness and failed to see the hint pointing to the real cop

. The mere action of drawing attention away from a cop draws attention to the idea there is one. So it doesn't have the desired effect.

I wonder why he was looking for cops to begin with, that's a scum job - at least at that point in the game.

I'm not willing to believe MBL at face value when he's talking about the whole Glork/Fritzler cop thing. It sounds like he's trying to talk his way out of it.

Let's see if we can get a better bandwagon going.

Unvote: Patrick; Vote: MBL

(Yes, that is a blatant attempt to derail some bandwagons. I want some of my suspects pushed for a change.)

The bolded section appears to slip by assuming my town-ness, yet chastises and incriminates me for drawing a wrong conclusion based on the evidence.

The last player MgM latched onto for an extended period of time was Ether, for nearly two complete days, based primarily and nearly exclusively on the fact that Ether didn't hammer Thesp. I don't like the extended nature of that suspicion either.

He makes consistently thin defenses of CES and tried to manipulate my vote off CES and onto Glork even though he wasn't voting Glork at the time (though he listed Glork as suspect, so it appears I was to do his dirty work for him). Also found me scummy for having "too many suspicions" and yet his list looks like:

Suspect: Patrick, Ether
Townish: Thesp
Rest: CES, Glork, MrBuddyLee, Nightfall, Zindaras

I believe at least 1 scum is in the group of people who aren't being looked at (MBL, Glork, Patrick).

And when pressed to give details on this weaselly suspicions list, he responds:

Glork, MBL and Zindaras are hard to read. I still don't trust Glork and MBL because of earlier, but I'm not as sure about them as I was before. What exactly Zindaras is, I'm not sure.

His posts aren't those of a player reading the game and actually looking for scum. They appear designed to manipulate and keep options open.

MgM, who do you suspect and who is clear in your mind and why? Can you please elaborate on each person?

[MrBuddyLee]

MgM, I'd be satisfied with hearing you talk about CES, Glork, Thesp, Nightfall and Patrick without reading the thread. I want to hear your gut instincts.

[MrBuddyLee]

What's with the rush to lynch with two new players freshly read?

I've been scrutinizing BM's posts as well and reached a somewhat different conclusion than you, Glork. Can you cite some specifics that'd lead you to believe his analysis is handwaving or insincere?

[MrBuddyLee]

I've read BM's posts in the past and found many of them dreadful. This game, he seems to have settled down and is making an effort to play responsibly and not recklessly, which is respectful of his fellow town or fellow scum. His posts thus far in this game reminded me of Nightfall's--not spectacularly insightful, but with a ring of township to them. A few attempts at assessing multidimensional relationships.

CTD, you owe us analysis of the most relevant part of the game please. I appreciate your efforts thus far.

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, a few things about BM's posts.

There are a few comments in there that make it appear he's actually trying to decipher relationships. Two examples:

Glork seems confident about a CDB lynch. Doesn’t even question CDB being scum. I find this quite suspicious, as the only way he could be THAT confident is if he was the last protown power role (which he wasn’t). he strongly suggests that he has a power role, and I am therefore surprised that he wasn’t killed by the scum already.

This is how I felt.

Glorks analysis reveals that he is suspicious of CDB and Zindaras now. He claims Thesp is likely protown. Yet amazingly, he consciously keeps his vote on someone he considers less likely scum. His suspicion of CES which again goes without a vote, is suspicious.

Unless this is parrotted from someone else, it's a relatively sophisticated observation. Though I do get a bit of a "cooked case" on Glork feel from a readthrough of the PBP.

And then there's the sketchy:

Note that in contrast to the card, the rules state that all cops are sane, thus MgM is proven town.

for obvious reasons.

Fritzler seems certain that Thesp is town. Fritz is NKed the following night, thus it follows that Thesp was one of his confirmed innocents. If anything, this reflects badly on him and MgM, as 50% of the scum now come up protown to cops, and so there is a greater chance of 1 of them being scum than a player who hasn’t been investigated.

This is either bad math or an attempt to mislead badly.

And then there's the significantly bad, which I'll address roundabout with a question:

BM, who caught CDB?

[MrBuddyLee]

Still, his question at the end of his most recent post feels like a loaded question, which would point to MBLscum if BM were *town* definitely, and is at best difficult to judge if BM is scum.

Riiight. If you were really trying to analyze BM's play you'd see what I saw and understand why it's an important question for him to answer. If you happen to be town, reread with that question in mind and see if you can spot the problem.

IGMEOY: Glork

[MrBuddyLee]

Sorry, can't post anything definitively til everyone answers your pop quizzes, wake me up at the bell for recess plz.

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, my question didn't get answered.

BM's PBP demonstrated that his top scum candidates were the first three or four people on the CDB-wagon. Surely one or two of us demonstrated proper motives in going after the guy?

Finding the CDB wagon just about entirely scummy is likely a sign of someone who needs to keep their options open re: who they could conceivably vote for. This suggests to me that BM is scum and his partner is one of the people he doesn't suspect, who didn't vote for CDB.

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm, nice misdirect. Do you think it's reasonable for BM to find the entire CDB-wagon scummy?

[MrBuddyLee]

The CDB-wagon started with Thesp-Glork-MBL. And yet Thesp and Glork are two of BM's top three suspects:

I could see a great number of potential scumpairs, including the obvious CES-Glork, Glork-Thesp. I don’t think CES and Thesp could be scumbuddies.

Somehow, I very much doubt that the first two people to put CDB on the hotseat were both of his scumpartners, lol. When scum gets lynched, town uses the lynch info as one of the primary pieces of evidence for determining alignments. It doesn't appear that BM factored that in. Nightfall did and chose to find Glork suspect and Thesp innocent.

In fact, in the same post where BM slipped and said Mgm was proven innocent by an investigation, he lists Thesp as a top suspect. I don't see how any of this reflects a read of the thread with genuine curiosity. It's more likely that he knows the alignments and is tailoring his analysis to them.

[MrBuddyLee]

Thesp bases his current vote entirely on Nightfall's words and has given us no substantial analysis of BM's.

CES limits his analysis of BM's post to comments BM made about CES. Entirely defensive and shows little interest in gauging alignment.

Patrick asked some of the questions I would have asked had he not.

Mgm latches onto the post 595 argument and gives no further comment other than that BM's analysis was "decent".

CTD ignores BM's posts entirely.

Glork's having a go at BM's posts, as he did with the Zindy situation. Positive sign. And yet he's rushing the lynch--I'd like to have the gaps above filled in before considering a lynch. And I'd like to hear people's opinions about those gaps.

[MrBuddyLee]

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

What I'm actually asking is HOW DO PEOPLE EXAMINE A WAGON? Town looks at it to try and see whose suspicions were genuine and who manufactured something to tag along. Common sense tells town that the first two people on a successful scumwagon probably aren't both scum. I'll be very surprised if Thesp and Glork both turn out to be scum considering how that lynch played out, and therefore BM seeing them as a scumpair is indicative of a different kind of read of the lynch.

Scum reads a lynch for anything they can use to sow doubt. That appears to be what's happening here.

[MrBuddyLee]

CES, CTD, any further comment on BM's posts? CES, why so defensive in your analysis? CTD, why'd you ignore BM's comments entirely?

A new player, and likely a more readable one, has replaced into the game, and I don't understand the reticence to analyze his words. People standing pat on the testimony of Nightfall aren't using all the evidence we've been given. Personally, I think BM's made mistakes that Nightfall didn't, and has given us more insight into the role.

[MrBuddyLee]

Battle Mage, if you happen to read this, self-hammering is the worst thing town can possibly do short of claiming scum. Your choice was dreadful.

Unless you can make an unambiguous case for who's scum when you turn up town, you HAVE to use that extra time and votes to draw more connections between the people who remain. We had an opportunity to force people to take a stand and see who was willing to possibly hop off the BM wagon, and you cut it short. For example, no one truly knows whether I would have hammered you or not. "I hate L-1" is so incredibly illogical a reason for killing any town let alone yourself that I don't think I want you in any of my games in the future if you're going to play like that.

The rest of you... *throws hands in air* I swore at the monitor when I saw BM come up town. Not because he got lynched but because of the near-complete lack of info that lynch gave us because most of you wouldn't play ball. The only person I could see as clearly scummy overnight was Ether, based on the way she pushed Nightfall relentlessly for days, and now she's dead, leaving us with a bunch of mealy-mouthed half-commital nothing to work with.

If this game's going to end with another mislynch, I won't be the fall guy if I can help it. Mgm, you look a little eager there considering what the correct play is today, and I already see Glork laying some groundwork to come after me because I've been "uncertain". If any one of you thinks about voting me, I want to hear who you think my scumpartner is and why before you place the vote. I plan to attack with my case for who the scumpair is, along with attacking the scenarios of the people who slide onto my wagon.

vote: no lynch.

I don't think I'll be the nightkill choice of scum considering my current favorability rating, but I want to read the thread until I can come up with a complete end-to-end theory of who the scumpair is and why they took each action they did. Please don't finish off the nolynch until we've all given our recommendations for tomorrow. I

will

reiterate that Ether was an unexpected nightkill, and the only explanation I can think of is that scum's looked at the voting patterns and knows who they want left around.

AndrewS: 8 (Thesp ChannelDelibird spectrumvoid Mgm CES Fritzler IH Glork)

Thesp: 6 (ChannelDelibird Cogito Ergo Sum Adele Mgm Glork Zindaras)

ChannelDelibird: 6 (Thesp Fritzler MrBuddyLee Glork Patrick CES)

Battle Mage: 5 (CES Glork Thesp Patrick Battle Mage)

Mgm was the only player not on the scum lynch, was on only one of the two town lynches but has been pushing me wrongly for 2 1/2 days now.
CES was late to the scum lynch, on both of the town lynches, and has pushed my lynch wrongly for a day.
Thesp was on both town lynches, leans towards a wrong lynch of me, but was on scum for three days.
Glork was on both town lynches, pushed my lynch wrongly yesterday, and claims to have followed Fritz-cop onto CDB.
Patrick was on one of two town lynches, late to the CDB lynch, and failed to hammer Thesp.
MBL was on neither town lynch (though I was considering hammering BM), and followed Glork-cop onto the CDB wagon.

If you guys lynch me, the game will be over. Don't be dumb--get to talking.

[MrBuddyLee]

Then apparently both of us need to read the thread more carefully--it appears I was wrong.

FoS: MBL for seeming to play both sides of just about everybody yesterday. I would like MBL to actually try to commit to something today. His vote seems to have been sitting around idly -- either nowhere, or on a player who probably wasn't going to be lynched.

I was on CES, Zindy and you all day yesterday, and only at the end was I uncommitted because if I voted it'd have hammered BM prematurely and because I was assessing Mgm as possible scum. You should read my thoughts leading up to each lynch/modkill carefully because I have yet to be certain of anything in this game other than that you were a cop with a guilty on CDB. Remember, I'm the stereotypically cautious player and you're the reckless one.

[MrBuddyLee]

We get it, you two aren't aligned.

Glork, why'd you have an epiphany and treat CES as confirmed innocent for two days? CES, why have you thought Glork's guaranteed town worth following for two days? If you're actually town, do you really think there's no risk inherent in that plan, or is there a trick to it?

You people piss me off.

I assume "you people" is inclusive of your own behavior at the end of day yesterday.

MBL:

What do you think of the early wagon against AndrewS based on his suggestion of No-Lynch? What do you think of MGM's attitude towards Glork based on Glork's suggestion of No-Lynch?

Glork, when Andrew made his nolynch call I was temporarily preoccupied in RL (remember LO2?) and was pretty much skimming the game, intending to become more active around Feb 5th when RL cooled off. I remember checking Andrew's postcount to see if he was a noob, and then determining that Andrew's move wasn't even remotely a serious proposal. I remember thinking "stereotypical responses from Adele (dogmatic), opportunistic (CES)". I don't recall learning a thing about anyone from that experience. I'm rereading Patrick right now and his thoughts on the Andrew situation mirrored mine for the most part.

From what I recall, I found Mgm saying a lot of nonsensical things on D1, and found him scummy for arguments that seemed cooked or not logically consistent. As I reread, I began to wonder if Mgm was having "off days" or was just slightly less logical than average in general, and it seemed that he was reading the thread and making deeper observations than I typically expect from scum. Tone: townish, Logic or lack thereof: scummish.

286 by MBL looks like

fuuuuuel

for the fire.

Spectrumvoid was in the process of wrecking my Old Maid Mafia game via inactivity. I have many reasons to believe she is lazy lurking scum. She earned the wagon she got, and just like Adele on D2, I think she was lazy and inattentive because she knew she could claim to get out of trouble. Terrible town play.

[MrBuddyLee]

If either of you jacktards on me is town you'd better step off...

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick
Levelheaded early, maintains random vote on Thesp.
Votes IH as an alternative to the CES wagon.
States overaggressively that IH is opportunistic scum.
Asks Glork to explain a vote, Glork declines, Patrick doesn't press the issue.
Good pickup of a Nightfall "slip".
Two townie wagons as deadline nears, sv's grew alarmingly rapidly. Patrick makes a surprisingly glib post about choosing between the two.
Gets attacked, proposes a theory where his attacker and Andrew are scumbuddies based on some transparent support.
Deadline's gone, maintains his vote on IH, still no comments on the sv wagon.
Then, asks IH, his current suspicion, to make the case against spectrumvoid.
sv claims vig, Patrick accepts her claim as truth and starts attacking the people on the Andrew-wagon.
Andrew out of desperation switches to Patrick's IH-wagon.
Patrick promotes an IH lynching or vigging. IH was playing weird and I don't have a problem with Patrick's recommendation. I think I preferred MGM-vig at the time.
============================================
Day two Patrick votes Glork out of the gates.

If it wasn't a joke wagon, I still am unsure what the case against her was. A load of ppl seemed to hop on and ppl were just saying "SV is scummy" and nothing else. She wasn't a strong contributor, but then again I could say that for alot of ppl. I didn't like that wagon.

Again, he didn't make any effort to make this case D1.
Glork makes a pro-town analysis on Patrick.
Patrick defends Thesp for his scummy play D1. Calls MGM dodgy.
Glork several days later calls Patrick useless--note this for tomorrow's read of Glork.
Patrick's first full analysis: mostly qualitative with a lot of I dunno". Adele/MGM leading scum candidates. Unvotes Glork, votes Adele for thin reasons. Finds CDB "uninspiring".
Pokes at Mgm, suggests CDB may be a scum patsy. Dangerous statement to make if Pat's scum.

I do buy the case against Mgm. I could see an Mgm/Adele team, with maybe Thesp as the third.

Switches vote to Mgm. I hit him for lack of reasoning, he responds with a nuanced post on the posts of Adele's and Mgm's he doesn't like.
Thespwagon overtakes all others. Patrick debates inattentiveness=/=scumminess with Thesp. Thesp zeroes in on Patrick as scum.
CDB defends Patrick from Thesp.
Patrick still on Mgm, asks Zindy why Zindy finds Mgm suspicious.
Spars with Mgm. Thespwagon is now L-2, Patrick commits to either an Adele or Mgm wagon. Asks me for my feelings on Mgm, which he correctly notices have softened over the course of D2. (Brownie point.)
Glork suddenly comments on Patrickscum and says the evidence is in the bloody knife debate. Zindy piles on, Patrick makes a very townish (for Patrick) biteback post that made a lasting impression on me.
Awakened by the attacks on him, he notices that Ether and Zindy are lurking and prods.
809 is a sketchy post to Glork:

I looked at your play, and thought (wrongly it seems) that you were a cop with a guilty on Mgm... I don't mind saying this now because it seems I was wrong in that assumption.

Bizarre observation to make publicly, risky again if scum. Then Adele claims and Patrick states immediately Thesp's not an alternative. He lets the clock run out instead of moving from Mgm to Ether or Thesp.
==============================================================================
Post-day-2-thoughts:
Patrick kept his vote on one player for the majority of both days. When his top two suspects came up confirmed-ish he seemed at a total loss for a place to find suspicion. His tone seemed townish but he was not thorough with his suspicions or town coverage.

Starts out with a Zindy vote. Defends against the failure to hammer by pointing out others who didn't rather than defending his judgment, which is odd and very defensive. Attacked me for having my vote on Ether end of day.
Mgm gets on Patrick, Patrick solidifies on Zindaras for some decent observations about Andrew stuff.
Thesp now finds Patrick town after lack of hammer with no further explanation. Note for later this is much more indicative of thesp scum pat town or town+town than thesp town pat scum.

Patrick's 2nd big summary post: Zindy CDB Ether scum, interesting interpretation of Fritz as town for failure to hammer Thesp.

Heh I have some kind of read on him, even if it just gut. I think he's town. For some reason the lack of Thesp hammer struck me as quite genuine. I don't really think it increases the chance of a possible Thesp/Fritz pairing as MBL seems to think. I've seen Fritzler bus away scumbuddies in other games without a care in the world. I think he's town who genuinely thinks Thesp is town.

The CDB wagon begins, Patrick asks Zindy about overcertainty of CDB's guilt. Says if CDB is scum, Glork and Thesp are town--this would be a risky move for scum.
Note for later: while CDB's going down, mgm: "Thesp was the lynch yesterday. There is no reason to postpone it any longer. He's scum and we should lynch him today." Also, man was I convinced at this point that Glork was town--if he's busing CDB it's tech.
Patrick and CES hammer CDB well before deadline.
========================================================================================
Day 4: Patrick back on Zindaras, not a bad choice this time. Suspects Mgm godfather. Arguments make sense.

Mgm's strategy yesterday if he is scum was pretty crude.

Good observation.
Note for later: this quote of CES's rings untrue--"I'm certain that Thesp is a GF because Fritz had an innocent on him and he is scum."
Patrick now thinks Ether and MBL are also very town, and it's not scum-like to close off so many avenues of future suspicion.
Mgm votes patrick for "efforts to lynch an investigative target" (Patrick is voting Zindaras at the time, extreme overdefensiveness by Mgm) and LOL line of the day:

Note that I haven't voted for you today to be lynched, unless you've recently changed your name to Zindaras.

Some of Pat's reactions to Mgm over these few pages look genuinely defensive--I don't think it's scum responding to scum distancing attacks.
Pat nudges me off CES towards the Zindywagon.
Glork asks Patrick to choose between nightfall and ces, Patrick chooses Nightfall, then back on Zindaras with deadline rescinded.
Zindy gets modkilled.
* Patrick was the only other person I really saw curious and concerned about the Zindy problem. (Brownie points)
==========================================================================================
Somewhat inactive, spars with MgM and settles on Nightfall/BM for going for an easy lynch in CES.
==========================================================================================
Morning note: Thesp, MBL, Glork find Patrick pro-town, why isn't Patrick dead overnight instead of CTD?
Patrick's relevant post today gives a lot of weight and time to D1 events. It doesn't appear to be stretching in an effort to reach conclusions. Order of suspicions seems to be:

CES
Mgm
MBL
Thesp
Glork

Notably:

I don't want to lynch either of the guys who can't be goons at this stage. Worse odds there.

I need to think about this. It's the principle I've been following up til now. Possible scumpairs based on the current voting situation, assuming two scum haven't been too chicken to hammer me (if they intended to they'd be lurking about the thread tonight but I see no buzzards around my wagon besides the two that already landed and I'm no longer paranoid of a quicklynch):

CES-Glork
CES-Patrick
CES-Thesp
CES-Mgm
Mgm-Glork
Mgm-Patrick -- not likely

If Patrick's scum, he's made three or four "stupid" plays that would be pretty risky/bold as scum, but they'd almost have to be conscious plays and I don't have any evidence that he's got brass balls like that. I also don't know why scum wouldn't have killed a protown Patrick, but I suppose that's WIFOMmable by scum manufacturing their endgame wagons. He was "right" on Zindy, sv, IH for the most part though he kind of let the sv thing happen then complained about it later.

If Patrick's scum it's probably with CES, not Mgm. Patrick and Mgm seem genuinely apprehensive of/antagonistic to each other. Patrick and CES ignored each other for the most part.

Glork and Thesp, do you think Patrick's opinions of you over time have been supported by his observations?

Patrick, please explain the evolution of your opinions of Mgm and CES over the past few days.

CES, Mgm, how come you're not voting for each other at this point?

(ppe: thesp voted and that comment no longer necessarily applies)

Glork's my next read. *grabs a Snickers*

[MrBuddyLee]

This makes no sense:

Voting for Thesp today would pretty much be suicide.

This makes no sense:

If you are so convinced Thesp is the GF, the right course of action is lynching him to force him to kill me, then force a no lynch.

This makes no sense:

Is Glrok willing to vote Thesp? No.
Is Patrick willing to vote Thesp? No.
Is MrBuddyLee willing to vote Thesp? No.
Is Thesp willing to vote Thesp? No.

Your reasoning almost made me unvote, it's the fact that no one is willing to finish MBL off that makes me continue to believe I'm right

This makes no sense:

A lot of people in my position would take a stand and go after you, Thesp, but I know that that approach is not going to win this town the game... I gambled that Patrick wasn't scum because if he was, we were doomed anyhow.

This back and forth is like watching Stephen Hawking and Richard Simmons play tennis. I don't even get scumminess so much as incoherence from those posts. If one of you happens to be town, please start playing like it so we can tell you apart from the scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

Explain what was sketchy or bizarre about this.

It's risky for scum to draw attention to the fact they're looking for cops. Sure, they can try to artfully explain the pro-town motivation for doing so, but I'd think scum would find alternative explanations rather than draw unnecessary heat.

You attacked me heavily over this for a while, then shortly after made a post where I remember you expressing suspicion of about half the players in the game, and I wasn't even one of them. I assume you must have been exagerating your attacks on me earlier, unless you had a very quick change of heart.

The purpose of attacks is to get information. I started with a read of you today even though you're the person I suspected the least, because if I don't, and you're scum, you've won. I'm not prepared to make a "Patrick is gg" leap of faith at this juncture.

I didn't really expect to be killed. There are better players then me here. I actually thought the most likely kill would be Glork, since I'm pretty sure he's town.

I think the discussion will rapidly descend into WIFOM, but I'd still like to hear everyone's thoughts on the nightkills. In a game with players of this quality, I find it difficult to believe that any scumteam would put all their eggs in the WIFOM basket instead of manufacturing their optimal lynches.

You realise Glork asked me a bunch of questions about day 1 stuff? That would be why I was talking mostly about day 1 stuff.

It was 6amish when I got to the end of the thread, and I didn't fully process that. I assumed you'd intend to get to later-game analysis in your upcoming posts.

[MrBuddyLee]

Oh and who was looking for cops, then made up some explanation and then yelled at me for finding looking for cops suspicious... Exactly. If your last line is true, you've just admitted that

my idea for suspecting you isn't all that out there.

Boy, you really want that lonely thesis of yours to be validated, don't you?

I've already addressed your cop argument in detail in my 73rd post. You're pretty much beating the same drum over and over, and I'm going to put my Glork read on hold to flesh out your "suspicions" of me. (Numbering mine):

I've quickly gone over a number of yesterday's posts and I saw that multiple people had a change of mind including CES and MBL.

1. No evidence that any one of them in particular was cop

before people started "drawing attention away". With that number of bandwagoners,

2. I don't see why MBL needed to draw attention away from the cop - he was already hidden

.
And when MBL did acted, he took stubbornness to mean copness and

3. failed to see the hint pointing to the real cop

.

4. The mere action of drawing attention away from a cop draws attention to the idea there is one.

So it doesn't have the desired effect.

5. I wonder why he was looking for cops to begin with, that's a scum job - at least at that point in the game.

6. The town was under the impression there was a roleblocker, so even the assumption there's a second cop means he was thinking like a scumbag (scared of coppish players).

7. MBL also sent us on a wild goose chase for non-existent information which left us with less time to follow real leads.

Taking the bolded points in order:
(1) and (2) you assert that there was no evidence of a cop and that the cop was hidden. This is false. Thesp found the cop, Glork found the cop, Patrick found a cop, I found a cop, CES says it should have been easy to spot the cop. You're the only living person claiming the cop was well-hidden.

(3) You tell me I failed to spot a hint that you just said in (1) and (2) didn't exist. You also admit I found the wrong cop by misreading Glork, and you expressed that in a way that reads like you know I'm town.

(4) You accuse me of drawing attention to the fact that there's a cop in thread, which I believe is false, but if true would be an accusation of me being bad town, not naughty scum.

(5) If "looking for cops" is a scum job, why have you singled out me to suspect for it? If you were town, then whoever you see as my scumpartner would have also admitted to looking for cops, yet you've drilled no one else for that. Inconsistency = an argument you don't believe in.

(6) You were the only player under the impression there was a roleblocker, I believe. Also, CDB's roleblocker claim came AFTER I spotted Glork and made a scene, not before.

(7) My "wild goose chase" was an attempt to get people on the record with their reads of CDB in hopes that evidence turned up would give the cop cover.

What "real leads" would you have pursued during the CDB lynch? And can you point out how you pursued those kinds of leads at the end of D4 during the Battle Mage lynch?

I'm not willing to believe MBL at face value when he's talking about the whole Glork/Fritzler cop thing.

Still standing pat, the same thing you did with Patrick and Ether for two months for not hammering Thesp.

You have been voting CES since April 11 (you switched to Zindaras by May 8th. That doesn't look like scum hunting, that looks like stubbornly holding on to your beliefs... I'd love to know how you think you can make an even remotely solid case for lynching a lurker who's almost getting modkilled anyway

You criticise me for keeping my vote on CES for a month, then criticise me for moving it onto Zindaras. Double standard, again, suspicion doesn't seem genuine.

Maybe you bolded the wrong section, but the stuff you bolded makes no assumption of town-ness at all.

It entirely focuses on how I find your reaction to Fritzler's copness scummy.

If it assumes anything at all it's scumminess.

You admitted two months earlier (Apr. 9) that my reaction was to Glork's copness, and yet here you try to twist it into something it wasn't. You're still standing pat on the same terrible reason you chose for originally finding me scummy, and you haven't attempted to build upon it in any way. It feels particularly like you've chosen a safe place to weather a storm--I know the feeling--I did it on CES/broomhead for the last three months of Himalayan. I repeated the same arguments that nobody agreed with, and no one ever called me on it.

If someone who keeps their options open is scummy, you are a textbook example. You've got plenty of suspicions, but still no vote.

Just commit to something already.

At the time I was not voting, and was expressing suspicion of Battle Mage. Mgm was voting me but encouraging me to apply the hammer to BM. I was considering it, sure, but was trying to get people on the record about BM first. Several other players were "done" with discussion at that point in the day, so I won't overblow Mgm's role in trying to shut the day down, but the point is he tried to make me look scummy for not playing along.

Actually, to me it looked like he was trying to do anything but hop on the BM wagon. I find your reasoning odd. Not lynching an innocent is a good thing. What I find suspicious about it, is that CDB was the only one who was willing to vote for a MBL lynch yesterday. Granted, Glork may be considering it now, but the fact CDB can't vote for MBL turns things in his favor because it makes lynching him significantly more difficult.

This is a set of disjointed accusations that aren't logically consistent or even accurate. It faults me for avoiding lynching an innocent (though that's not what was happening). The argument shifts midstream to try and implicate me for the CTD lynch based on the falsehood that he was the only person who wanted to lynch me yesterday. (CES and Glork voted me, Thesp indicated willingness.)

Mgm, after reviewing your trains of thought, I'm not so sure you actually believe I'm scum. Your "beliefs" aren't logically consistent, you appear to be a one-trick pony, and I'd like to see you clarify and expand upon why you're

so

content to risk all your marbles on a lynch of moi.

[MrBuddyLee]

Talking about beating the same drum over and over again. That post was a lot of bleating but it didn't actually address the point I was making.

Sure it did. Your point was:

If your last line is true, you've just admitted that my idea for suspecting you isn't all that out there.

What I spent a few hours doing last night, and which you're completely dismissing or ignoring, was examining the totality of your suspicions against me to see if you're more likely scum or misguided town. You're trying to use my words against me rather sloppily here:

It's risky for scum to draw attention to the fact they're looking for cops. Sure, they can try to artfully explain the pro-town motivation for doing so, but I'd think scum would find alternative explanations rather than draw unnecessary heat.

If your last line is true, you've just admitted that my idea for suspecting you isn't all that out there.

What my last line is saying there is that if scum was cophunting, they'd likely do it on the sly and if they wanted to agree with a cop they'd pick another feasible reason and stick with it. You're saying I picked another feasible reason and stuck with it, and that's why you claim to find me suspect. But I

DIDN'T

pick another feasible reason. I said my reason was that I thought Glork was the cop and if you read the posts from that time period it should be apparent that's what I was doing.

It doesn't seem you've read those posts of mine carefully, because otherwise you'd be making the only common-sense argument you could conceivably make regarding that issue--and you'd suggest that my actions were intentional WIFOM.

But you haven't argued that, you've argued based on an unrealistic interpretation of my actions. Every post you've made accusing me has been a straight, non-WIFOM interpretation of my actions that day.

Scum looking for cops would dream up alternative explanations on what they're doing instead of drawing heat. Your description of what scum would do, describes precisely what YOU have done.

You're insinuating I didn't draw heat? I just checked your post history--you basically never mentioned me until I made that play. The next day, you jumped on me for my actions after you overreacted badly to Patrick's questions about the CDB wagon. And you've remained on me ever since. And you're wrong--my actions (drawing attention to myself and coming clean about thinking I had seen a cop) are just about the

diametric opposite

of how I think scum would approach that situation. I acted without a sense of self-preservation, scum would have most likely slithered on the wagon with little fanfare.

(4) You accuse me of drawing attention to the fact that there's a cop in thread, which I believe is false, but if true would be an accusation of me being bad town, not naughty scum.

That would be an indication of bad town play, which can be done by both scum and town.

Yes, but for the play to be bad scum play it'd have to be intentional WIFOM, which you haven't accused me of once. You've accused me of errors in judgment thereby drawing attention to the cop. And what would my motive be as scum for drawing such attention? Wouldn't scum just take their copnotes silently back to their scumpartner that night? Nothing you're arguing makes any sense in the context that you actually believe I'm scum. I've asked you to clarify your case and you're standing pat on your previous arguments, which aren't logically consistent.

You were the one trying to justify it (looking for cops) and say it was a good thing. Just because I can't find your scum partner with the same reasoning doesn't mean it's entirely invalid.

The point here is that you haven't distinguished

WHY

you believe my cophunting was scummy and everyone else's

wasn't

.

What makes you so absolutely sure there wasn't a roleblocker even before CDB claimed it?

I thought Glork was the cop. If he wasn't, and CDB turned up town, I would have been 99% certain Glork was scum the next day. The only three explanations for Glork's behavior were 1) he was a cop with a guilty on CDB, 2) he was disgracefully reckless scum sacrificing himself to get CDB-town lynched, or 3) he was sloppily busing his scumpartner CDB. (1) seemed the most Glork-like.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork:
First significant play is nolynch horseplay, Mgm takes the bait, Glork votes him for being dumb not scum imo. Mgm solidifies his attack on Andrew/Glork,
FOS on IH with emphasis, observant.
In response to Adele, takes the position that this town is less likely to WIFOM by making intentionally sketchy plays D1.
*comedy interlude*
LOL, I forgot he /diced, got Thesp, and:

Shit, no, we can't lynch Thesp. Let's try that again.

Compliments Fritz for cleverly anticipating the random /dicewagon.

The dice never lie.

Except that first one.

Crap. Valid point.

*resume game*
Admits to feeling apathetic, wants action. It's been a dull day other than the comedy, I can't disagree.
Doesn't really advise sv against claiming.
sv wagon rising, Glork says he doesn't find the alternative, Andrew, particularly scummy.
Glork finally takes a poke at Thesp with regards to sv vs Andrew. Gauging why Thesp won't leave the Andrewwagon to lynch sv.
sv claims, Glork switches to Andrew,

who he just said he didn't find particularly scummy

.

I feel like wagoning the living crap out of him.

Pretty big turnaround just because sv's claimed and there's no other alternative in sight.
Interestingly, Patrick FOSes Glork for this.
I point out a curious Mgm post, Glork switches to become the only vote on Mgm.
IH, whose own wagon is rising and who is the vig proposal, joins Glork on Mgm presumably to muster support for an alternative vig.
Glork states support for an Adele vigging.
sv announces vig, Glork doesn't take issue even though it's not one of his top two vig choices.
Interesting:

If AndrewS turns out town, I'll vig his biggest pusher.

*note: Mgm continues to push Andrew aggressively after this--not what I'd expect scum to do after sv's threat.
Glork hammers Andrew in lieu of impending nolynch. Not a terrible play.
===========================================================================================
D1 comments: Glork not particularly pro-town, nor consistent, not really trying to drive things.

Glork on Mgm start of D2. Finds Mgm and Ether scummiest for their behavior re: the three towniewagons.
Drops the Thesplove. Finds Patrick protown for finding him suspicious. Finds Nightfall and Fritz protown for D1.
Glork agrees with my assessment of the game, this worries him.
Asks Thesp about my observation that Thesp failed to contest the IH vig and seemed reckless enough to draw an investigation.
Glork's the leading vote-getter at this point, doesn't seem overly concerned. Agrees with me that Thesp's behavior change is disturbing.
But confirms the Mgm vote after a useless Mgm lurker-hunting post.
CDB makes his first analytical post, Glork follows with a ramble and:

This is probably the strangest set of interactive suspicions I have ever seen.

Why the sudden attention to strangeness right after CDB posts, and what's so strange?

Glork ranks his top 5: MGM, then Thesp/Adele (they're pretty interchangable), then CDB, then Ether
*double post here, it appears after hitting Submit, Glork hit stop/back and decided he wanted to add some questioning of MBL re: CDB to that post.)
Glork weighs in on CES:

No... I would actually put you down as a lurker. You've posted with reasonable frequency, but you never explained your FoSes or your vote on me. I feel that you're in a very similar category with CDB (who fits my list of 6 -- me and my five top suspects -- and in the "potential lurkerscum" category). I see you both as actively lurking. I am not getting the distinct CES-town vibe that I've gotten from you in the past, but I am not getting a glaringly scummy vibe either... That said, I could definitely see CES+Thesp in cahoots together. I'm sensing some kind of interaction between them, and CES's double-FoS of Thesp today, while keeping his vote on me and refusing to explain why, does send up a flag.

Glork, why CDB and not CES in your top five scumlist at this point?

Sterile, slightly amusing interaction where Glork asks CES why he's voting him.
Fritz asks Thesp who the play is, Glork is disappointed not to get the nod.
Glork, Mgm and Thesp all at 3 votes. Fritz on Adele. Thesp on CDB.
Adele makes an anti-Glork post three days before deadline.
Deadline gone, CES moves to Thesp.

I'm slightly more confident in MGM/Adele than I am in Thesp right now.
I could probably be persuaded to move to Thesp if I don't get my way, though.

Adele signs on. Thesp at L-2.

If Thesp is pro-town, Adele and MGM are so dying next.

Curious choice of comemnt at that time, considering he just indicated a willingness to join.
CES notices. Adele notices. Mgm notices. Patrick notices but thinks Glork's town for it. Glork's explanation for the unusual shift:

Since that initial list has posted, MGM/Adele have risen to the top of my list. My Ether suspicion is in something of a stasis, and Thesp/CDB have slipped a bit.

It's an Adele-centric view--she attacked CDB-Thesp making them less scummy. I'm guessing the Adelecentrism is significantly due to OMGUS and/or self-preservation.
Nightfall asks Glork for opinions on his unsuspected four:

MBL seems pretty pro-town to me. Zindie and Patrick are pretty neutral (though I plan on going back and examining Patrick before too long). CES seems reasonably pro-town to me also.

CES asks Glork to hop on Thesp:

Right now, I don't plan on moving to Thesp unless we get another deadline and we need a lynch on somebody.

note: stance not yet firm, doesn't appear to have spotted the Fritz-Thesp relationship yet.
Thesp takes major offense, then:

I recognize that it's more or less joking, but it sortof feels like you were hoping that I'd take the bait anyway. Even insinuating that we should lynch to try to set up two futrure lynches sets off my scumdar pretty hardcore. FoS: CES

It took Thesp's outrage to make Glork's observation FOSable a day after the fact.
*note: CES asks for deadline with 5/7 on thesp
Adele on Glork: "I think he's a Bad Man."
Stance solidified:

Guys, I don't think Thesp is the play... I want MGM or Adele killed dead today. Period. I'm at the point where I don't think I'd even support a Thespwagon for the sake of attaining a lynch. If we have to NL, so be it.

Mgm wants to see Glork dead, CES criticises no-lynch suggestion.
Glork moves to Adele, her first vote, as Patrick pushes the Mgm wagon to rival Thesp's.

Thesp is currently on my "probably pro-town" list mainly due to my suspicions of Adele and MGM.

*note: will be interesting to see how this changes when adele claims.
Glork with a reasonably well-supported explanation of his Adele suspicions. They're largely based in D1 behavior. A little circular logic here: "I'm put off by the way that both MGM and Adele jumped on Thesp." and he finds Thesp town because Mgm and Adele suspect him.
Glork suggests Patrick+Adele scumteam, Patrick calls him on it, Glork explains:

I meant to go back and change that to specify which (Patrick/Adele as scum, MGM/Thesp as town). There was something that I saw that made me think that you were a bad guy. I think it was in that whole "bloody kinfe" example/debate. I'll go see if I can recall exactly what that was.

Strange place to find a bad guy, I find myself skipping over those posts.
Adelewagon grows, Glork explains suspicions of Patrick:

(some unconvincing babble about Professor Plum) The fact that Adele supported you and simultaneously attacked Thesp piqued my interest. Combine that with the fact that you chose to go with the MGM lynch rather than the Adele lynch, and I thought that maybe you two were giving each other preference.

Weak.
Adele claims cop.

Hm. I take it there's no mason group if Adele's claim holds true.

Unvote, Vote: Thesp

Totally reversing stance on Thesp based on the Mgm/Adele news. Pretty much expected if his trust of Thesp was based on his suspicion of Adele.

What was the mason comment about?

Decent explanation of his radical shifts, then:

If Thesp turns out pro-town and Adele/MGM check out, CDB and Ether will be right back at the top of my list, most likely.

How could Mgm check out? If Adele's cop she dies and Mgm is a potential godfather. I imagine Patrick's not on this list because his guilt was tied to Adele.
Glork doesn't encourage a hammer, instead quibbles with Ether while the clock expires.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork asks Ether why she didn't hammer, wants to lynch Zindaras, who wasn't on his end-of-day list. Zindy asks why, Glork (preoccupied by Space Monkey) doesn't respond.
Glork takes on a major reread. Too many details to go over on a one-off basis here so the summary:

Okay... so CES, Zindie, Thesp, Patrick, Ether, MGM, and CDB have all done things that are noteworthy as possible scum-actions in my mind. I see a potential MGM-CES link, Thesp+CDB link. Zindie and Ether probably seem the scummiest overall to me, right now.

Carrying on a rich tradition, Glork guarantees that one of MBL/Zindy are scum. Curiously:

I could easily see two scums among MBL, Glork, Zindie, CES. Possibly just one, though. Suggest lynching Zindie.

Why include yourself in the list of possible scum?

Through post 434 Glork now lists CES+Zindy as his top two.
Glork and Zindy spar.
*comedy interlude*

Glrok, vote yourself.

CES, nightkill yourself.

*back to our regularly-scheduled program*

Patrick, Zindaras, and Nightfall are being lazy/lurky... (Interesting that CDB called two of these three pro-town, eh?)

Why interesting, in light of the fact that you think scum are more likely to suck up to town than scum?

Another post where Glork sees a similarity to old games, and again, it involves CDB:

Interestingly enough, Zindie commits one of my favorite scumtells in 641, protecting CDB. Thesp accuses CDB of being lurkerscum. Zindie replies by wanting to look at other lurkers, too. Another scary post which is very reminiscent of a post in a past game.

Final suspicions list after full reread:

Probably Pro-Town: MBL, Thesp, Fritz, MGM, Glork
Probably Scum: CDB, Zindaras
Possibly Scum: CES, Patrick, at most one of Ether/Nightfall. (Leaning towards Ether, though.)

Lots to like in Glork's analyses. I try to find mistakes in logic and inconsistency of suspicion when looking for scum and I've posted the few speedbumps above. By and large, though, good analysis and in retrospect he clearly found Fritzcop by the end of it and wasn't afraid to hint as such.

:knowstuff: [/Fritz]

Fritz shows approval of Glork, asks what the play is.
More sparring with Zindy, looks genuine.
Glork votes CDB, Fritz follows.

Ether doesn't look town at all to me, CES bothers me, Zindaras bothers me, and the CDB wagon looks suspiciously scum-driven so I'm reading the fine print on that one.

Explain this. Thesp and I have pushed CDB the most by far, and Fritz hopped aboard recently. A few other people have expressed passing suspicions of CDB, but nobody else has decided to ride the gravy train. You call Ether, CES, and Zindaras suspicions -- and none of them have expressed much suspicion of CDB (if any at all). Yet you think CDB's wagon is "suspiciously scum-driven"?

Just how many scums do you think are in this game?

I don't like this statement. I thought CDB might be a weak sheep getting lunched on by wolves, and you're implying that because I also have suspects who are not on the CDB-wagon that I'm necessarily wrong about Thesp-scum pushing CDB? It almost looks like you know CDB is scum here, you know only one or two of the other six I list are scum, and you're going to slam me for it. In your most recent suspicions list you listed six possible scum as well, so this post is hypocritically scummy.
I REALLY don't like this in response to Mgm asking Glork about his suspicions list:

I'm still a bit wary over MBL's "I think Ether, Zindaras, CES, and the trio on Thesp are all suspicious" comment is very out-of-place, and

he may get knocked down a notch when CDB turns up scum

... but other than that, it's pretty accurate.

Your mindset at this point: you think you've found Fritzcop, he asked you if you wanted to lynch Ether and you said "naw, CDB instead". He follows you onto CDB, and now you have the confidence to state unequivocally that CDB is scum?
I fos Glork for the certainty, he replies:

Quite intentional, actually.

=============================================================================================
My mind blown, I go to reread Glork and it appears there's no rational explanation for his certainty on CDB. I can only assume he's pretending to have found CDB-scum in his reread and he's actually the cop. If he's not, he's getting his kneecaps broken tomorrow. If he's cop, he's not being as clever about disguising it as he thinks he is, so I make my play to redirect attention away from Glork's change of heart and towards the content of CDB's posts. I hint that he should stfu and he seems to oblige, setting up CES and Zindy for the next day:

But I do want other people to actually *do* something, and to contribute to what should be a blindingly obvious lynch by now... Oh, and CES, I still expect you to answer my question. Thoughts on everybody. Before today's lynch happens. Got it?

Zindy connects Glork and CDB, Glork takes massive offense, Zindy can't explain logically and retracts.

I will also 100% guarantee you that CDB is scum.

Reminiscent of LML on DGB in Himalayan. Glork eviscerates Mgm for not catching on.
Patrick asks Glork WHY, Glork replies:

I made a handful of comments on CDB's words and actions during my extensive re-reads.

Glork, why were you 100% sure about CDB being scum?

[MrBuddyLee]

Spars with Mgm about finding the cop.
CES is the leading wagon, Glork is ok with a CES lynch and Zindy modkill but is voting Zindy.

I'm guessing our last two scums are likely among {Zindaras, CES, Nightfall}.

Then makes a case for Nightfall-MBL and changes his mind on accepting my explanation for yesterday's hot cop action:

I find it just as likely that MBL *is* scum and that he knew CDB was doomed to failure. I think that once I dropped the cop-hints, he went back and looked at my posts and realized why I all of a sudden trusted Fritzler. And that's why I think Fritz was nightkilled instead of me.

*note: again, Mgm leaps to vote me when Glork expresses suspicion.
Glork votes Nightfall, making it a wagon of two next to CES's three. CES makes it 3-3.
I smack Glork around a little about the mutability of his suspicions, he answers reasonably.
Asks Patrick to choose between a Nightfall/CES wagon. Expresses preference for Nightfall.
Deadline extension, people go after Zindaras. Glork waffles on Zindaras.

I'm also waiting for MBL to outline his case against Zindaras. I am especially interested in hearing his opinions.

I was pushing Zindy aggressively, and Glork made an emotional triple-post firming up his defense of Zindy with conclusion:

He isn't scum. I don't know how many more times I can say that.

Turned out to be correct, but I absolutely do not see the logic upon which this conclusion is predicated.
I am now Glork's "play of the day". Zindy gets modkilled before Glork has to defend his bold protection of Zindy.
Glork and Mgm heap on the nonsense, trying to make it look like I wanted to lynch Zindaras when I was actually pressuring for everyone's OPINIONS of Zindaras.
CES follows Mgm and Glork, and it's now 3-3 CES/MBL.
No one bites, Glork drops his arguments on me cold turkey and votes Nightfall.
BM and CTD replace, Glork presses Thesp to lynch BM, Mgm hops back on me.
3-2 BM/CES, Glork cites post 595 as a Nightfall-CDB link.

Yeah, I'm like 95% sure that Nightfall/BM is scum now.

Again, disturbingly certain, but I think BM/Nightfall was an OK lynch yesterday.

I would seriously consider going after MGM if BM were lynched as the other Mafia Goon today. Of course, I still see MBL as a possible third scumbag among this group. If BM were lynched as town today, I think I'd be going after CES the hardest tomorrow. I don't really know who I'd peg as the second scum at that point.

Glork's suspicions are more fluid than anyone's in the game. Not necessarily scummy--I see Mgm's fixed suspicion of me as more worrisome.

I honsestly get the feeling that MBL is

intentionally playing both sides of the BM-coin

so that he can decide whether he needs to bus BM or whether he can slide suspicion away from him at some point.
Still, his question at the end of his most recent post feels like a loaded question, which would point to MBLscum if BM were *town* definitely, and is at best difficult to judge if BM is scum.

As Glork is "intentionally playing both sides of the BM-coin" to paint me scummy regardless of BM's alignment. Malarkey.

Glork chides CES and Thesp for not participating.

MgM is making the same point I did about MBL "keeping his options open." Either MgM and I are just plain right, or MgM is setting up MBLtown to try to be the lynch tomrorow, once BM dies as scum. Either way, it's making me more confident that one of them is the remaining scumbaggo. (Yes, MBL, I'm stating as a fact that BM will be lynched as scum. Have fun with my certainty here.)

I wasn't keeping my options open, I was trying to get more info, see 1579. I found CTD, Mgm, CES, Thesp suspect for coasting.
BM self-hammers.
================================================================================================
Day whateverthefracktodayis:

Meh. I was so disgusted with myself that I didn't even look at the thread overnight. A little surprised to see CTD bite the dust. I think that MBL is my top suspect, but at this point, I really have no idea what the hell I'm doing.

I'm tired of reading, and Glork looks more like town throughout today's discussion. He's asking the right questions. And this struck me as genuine:

Augh. Please don't spam once you've affirmed the nonexistence of a scumpair. Every time I see a new post in this, I grow paranoid that somebody else has popped into the thread and caused a quicklynch. :/

considering I had just that sinking feeling while refreshing the page over and over.

[MrBuddyLee]

CES:
I am now going to try and find five pro-town things CES has done. Wish me luck.

Puts AndrewS at L-2 and encourages Zindy to hop on. Not terrible considering the quality of this town. Neutral.

Zindaras: it's pretty easy to get a read on Thesp. Just follow him blindly. If the town's losing, he's probably scum. If you just won the game, well, then he's probably town.

CES, do you actually believe this?

CES is fifth on the svwagon with eight to lynch.
Half a credit for pointing out that IH overreacted to the svwagon.

Switches back to Andrew after sv claims vig.

Gives a bunch of vig theory advice. Nulltell.

Calls Zindy antitown for voting IH, who's going to be vigged anyway. Borderline protown for trying to get more info out of Zindy. 1/2 point.
=========================================================================
FOSes Glork and Thesp to start out D2.
Votes Glork, FOSes Thesp again for stupidity D1.
That's page 20, and this pretty much says it all:

Glork: 3 (Patrick Cogito Ergo Sum MgM)

You forgot about commas.

Still voting Glork (3/7), asks Thesp to join.
Pressed, says his vote on Glork is for pressuring rather than indicative of suspicion.

FoS: Glrok for misrepresentation. I did not "refuse to explain", I was never asked to explain.

Falsehood. Glork asked him for reasoning.
Spars with Glork about the reasoning for his Glorkvote--claims it was pure bandwagoning. Didn't look like it at the time, considering he FOSed first. Is there such a thing as an FOSwagon?

Glork: 2 (Cogito Ergo Sum Mgm)
Mgm: 2 (Glork Patrick)
Thesp: 2 (MrBuddyLee ChannelDelibird )

I sense a great disturbance in the force. As if I wasn't bandwagonning properly.

Unvote, vote: Thesp

This is three days before deadline, taking Glork off the table and putting Thesp on. Mgm, who is also at 2 votes, calls CES on it. Bandwagoning three days before deadline is terrible, ridiculously reckless play. This vote's the first significantly anti-town CES action--leading wagon manipulation with bandwagoning as an excuse.

I move to Ether, CES demands I move back to Thesp to facilitate wagoning. Mgm-wagon now leads, Mgm asks CES to move to Glork, CES won't do it.

CES, why didn't you wagon Mgm?

Mgm joins CES on Thesp. That's 4 to Mgm's 3.
Zindy hops on, that's 5, CES implores Glork to wagon:

If, for some reason, he comes up town, you'll have lots of juicy info on Mgm and Adele. It's win-win.

Gets attacked from all sides, defends with:

hypothetically, if a mislynch were to give us two scums(Mgm+Adele), then the lynch would certainly have been in the town's interest.

Note: Mgm has been doing some weird shit for two days and CES's only comments on him are basically "this is how he plays" and "he is town".

CES, please go into detail about what Mgmscum looks like.

ps. "Gut + Metagame, essentially." is not a sufficient answer.

48 hours to deadline, CES posts like 11 times trying to get Thesp over the hump. He reams Thesp for misleading town about the deadline lynch policy, apparently in hopes of changing one more mind.
*note: Admittedly, what Thesp did seemed sketchy on the surface, but I think it actually put him in more danger than otherwise (like 5 people called him on it, as expected) and may have been an honest mistake.

CES, who was wagoning Thesp besides CDB?

===============================================================================================
D3 Adele dead, CES starts on Thesp with FOS: Ether for not hammering.
CES argues lack of hammer was a terrible play for parity reasons.
CES defends against Thesp's attacks on his behavior by saying the town's responsible so he doesn't have to worry about quicklynches.
Glork shows concern about CES's lack of breadth, CES gives him the heisman.
Delibird wagon is three, the Glork-MBL fiesta begins with Glork demonstrating certainty of CDB's guilt. CES FOSes Glork for the certainty. Glork ignores the FOS--I would have expected the typical "Why?"

CDB claims, CES is first to respond. Casts doubt with the awkward parenthetical:

MrBuddyLee, why don't you share what you "found" in his posts? (I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim if there's good reason to believe he's scum.)

Not willing to do the research on his own... mild lack of curiosity.
CDB encourages counterclaims, CES defends the absurd statement:

If he's town, he obviously thinks that asking for a counterclaim rather than just getting lynched is a good idea.

This is the second time you've attempted to discredit a valid point by ignoring specific context. It makes sense for him to ask for counterclaims.

Thesp was right, asking for counterclaims was neutral-to-anti-town, and it's bizarre that CES defends.

CES, do you actually believe scum would EVER suicide-counterclaim to get pro-town CDB killed?

My opinion as regards the most likely lynch and most likely nightkill(Channel and Mgm respectively) are already out there. And I'm pretty sure I'm right on both counts, so I doubt waiting one night will affect my opinion.

Seems to assume he'll be around tomorrow. Possible scumslip. Town would want to be on the record in case they die overnight.

Out of the blue, before CDB lynch:

Glrok is probably pro-town in this game. True story.

CES now finds CDB tip-top scummy but isn't voting him, explanation:

No, it's not his behaviour that really bugs me, although it is slightly scummy. It's the claim.

Also out of the blue, considering he just defended CDB for asking for counterclaims.

And a step further, now he's convinced of CDB's guilt:

I'm already convinced of his guilt and I don't even know whether I could find it because I might not even think it scummy

Nightfall calls him on it. CES still isn't voting.

CES, what was so unconvincing to you about the claim?

Eventually, after much ado about nothing, CES hammahs CDB.
=============================================================================================
The hammer came two days before deadline, with Zindy and Ether yet to check in. Nulltell. Like Glork, CES showed too much confidence in the upcoming CDB result.

Next morning, first post:

Damn. Now I understand [1145]. Off to look for his results.

Four minutes later:

His Night 1 investigation is fairly obvious. An innocent on Thesp. So he's the Godfather. This is good to know. He doesn't really hint at a Night 2 investigation, although a guilty on Channel seems the most likely possibility. Vote: Thesp

Four minutes is pretty speedy. Even Stallingchamp can't consistently switch alts in that timeframe...

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork moves CES to the top of his list seemingly for the continued Thesp suspicion.

Ces explains the logic behind still finidng Thesp scummy:

I'm certain that Thesp is a GF because Fritz had an innocent on him and he is scum. I personally have no trouble reading it as a bussing attempts. He expressed suspicion of Channel often without providing much reasoning and he had little problem with voting for other people. I mean, he drew attention to Channel, but I don't hold him responsible for the Channellynch.

I can see the argument but I don't like the vote considering the likely investigation result. No way is Thesp getting lynched asap, and CES has criticised others before for placing pointless votes like this one.
Most people weigh in on Thesp as townish, CES dejectedly unvotes.

Moving on, Glork gets cold feet about CES, CES proclaims Zindy and a few friends town:

I've already eliminated Glrok, Zindaras and Mgm.

Glork, are you part Dutch?

Glork calls me out for harping on CES,

CES asks Thesp why he showed no interest in looking for whatever CDB "evidence" I'd found the previous day. 1/2 point.

CES 3 Zindy 2, CES asks Zindy to make a case against Thesp. CES still isn't voting--Patrick and Nightfall are the only choices to bandwagon.
CES disappears for a bit, apparently ill, then returns to wagon Nightfall. 3-3 CES/Nightfall.

I ask CES how he pegs Zindy as town, same response as on Mgm: "My opinion on Zindy is mostly based on gut and metagaming."

Thesp notices the sudden move to Nightfall.

2 days to deadline, 3-3 CES/Nightfall. Deadline removed.

CES says he can't read me, asks Glork for permission to sheep onto me. He disappears while Glork and I go at it for a few pages, then sheeps:

But MBL is most definitely downplaying Zindie's analysis post, something you, Glrok, mentioned as a distinct pro-town sign. Quite scummy. Unvote, vote: MBL

CES claimed to find Zindy townish on his own--why would he need to invoke Glork's opinion on a post to indict me? Smells like suckup.

Glork unvotes, CES unvotes.
New deadline set, CES is #2 on Nightfall, BM replaces.

CES is flip about BM's entrance and analysis, picks out 6 comments about himself to respond to,
then:

BM is actively lying and deceiving to paint me as scum (with Glrok as partner).

Accurate description, except for the lying and deceiving part. Solidifies on BM:

He's already decided I'm scum 6 lines into his analysis. This is typical scum going after a target (as opposed to town looking for scum). I even make sense as a target(I'm probably the easiest lynch here(apart from BM), ceteris paribus.

BM self-hammers.
========================================================================================
Start of day, Glork suspects CES, CES essentially proxies his vote to Glork.

CES, is there anyone you wouldn't follow Glork onto?

CES finally explains why he finds certain people town:

It's gut feelings, Glrok, as I have stated previously, that I'm basing these things on. I look at the totality of one's posting, not specific parts. I'm being vague because my reasons are vague. They're still correct though. I also just said I did not come to these conclusions during Day 1 itself.

Can anyone who's played against CES-scum tell me if he has a tendency to use more specific arguments as scum or if he's always this vague?

CES makes what I see as a disastrous move, for the worst of reasons:

Thinking about what's going on today, Patrick and Thesp seem to be impossible to get lynched. Mgm and Glrok are town. That leaves MBL. Vote: MBL

Leaving aside the bizarro confirmation of Glork and Mgm, what if Thesp and Patrick had been the scumpair? Your unwillingness to fight for your belief (at least with regards to Patrick) could have cost town the game. And I'd like to think you're too savvy to make that play, and that you're scum. But I've seen the same pattern in Jelly and in Himalayan, so experience tells me to treat this as another nulltell, which is just stupid. You're a bright guy, and you really should step up your game when you're town, even if it makes your job as scum more difficult.

Mgm makes the odd statement:

I'm happy to see you (CES) on the (MBL) wagon, but I'm not sure you did it for the right reasons.

Actually, much worse than odd, because we now know that at least one of CES/Mgm HAS to be scum. Any posts after #1690 that show either CES or Mgm favoring the other are evidence of deceit.
===============================================
I don't think I found five pro-town actions. I have more work to do, including making sure in my mind that Thesp and Mgm should be off the table for today. Please answer the questions I've bolded, and apologies for the spam but I needed to do this, and I think it'll give three of you insight into my current thought processes as you evaluate my alignment.

[MrBuddyLee]

If I was forced to choose a lynch right now it'd be CES, but I'm a long way from being confident enough to vote. There's no one I wouldn't consider lynching, and I don't see that changing. Thesp is the least likely of you to be scum, in my opinion.

* I see Glork as suspect primarily for his certainty about Zindy, CDB and Nightfall. I've gone through all of his votes and the lynches that have happened, and if he's scum, those three lynches/wagons stand out as the moments where he got impatient and failed to back up his convictions with proper evidence. In none of those three instances did Glork's bluster match his presented case. I kind of like Glork's coverage of the players remaining, except for his brown-nosing of Thesp and I think he's treated Patrick with kid gloves as well. (found him possible scum pre-CDB-lynch, moved him to pro-town post-CDB-lynch with no explanation) Glork took a few shots at Mgm and an awful lot at CES, which is a good sign because CES has been consistently scummy.

Mgm, what do you think of Glork's certainty on CDB, Zindy and Nightfall's alignments before they were lynched?

* I see Thesp as suspect because his play hasn't been as good as advertised and when you look at his vote patterns it's kind of fishy. A lot of abandoning his preferred wagons to join attempted lynches of town with the exception of CDB:

vote: AndrewS->CDB->Adele->Ether->CDB->CES->Zindaras->CES->BM->CES

CES, what evidence would you use to argue that Thesp's dogged pursuit of CDB wasn't a calculated busing decided upon the moment CDB made his third post?

Glork, does Thesp's activity on CDB and CES look like it could feasibly be double-whammy-scumbag-busing?

I also don't like this at all:

Awesome. MrBuddyLee is the final scum. If we have a vig, we can win by tomorrow.

It turns out MBL is the third scum.

I don't understand where MrBuddyLee is in all this, and I don't have strong pro-townness from him.

Also, MrBuddyLee, why aren't you voting for ChannelDelibird?

I have strong concerns about MrBuddyLee after a brief re-read

I could go with a MrBuddyLee lynch. Pretty easily, the more I read.

Glork, can you guess why the above smattering of quotes concerns me?

* I don't like CES's certainty about Thesp, Zindy, Mgm, Glork with nothing to support it but "gut and metagame". His voting patterns read like a "here's the wagon du jour" summary of the game. He hasn't seemed curious and hasn't asked relevant questions of anyone. It doesn't feel like he wants to win.

vote: Thesp->Andrew->scumvoid->Andrew->Glork->Thesp->Thesp->CDB->Thesp->Nightfall->MBL->Nightfall->MBL

Patrick, why hasn't CES been lynched sooner?

* I like that Mgm had fairly thorough coverage of Glork, Thesp, Patrick and myself this game, but don't like the way he's ignored CES:

CES->Glork->AndrewS->Glork->Thesp->Patrick->Ether->Glork->Thesp->Patrick->MBL->Ether->MBL

Regardless of CES's alignment, how can Mgm not even demonstrate the least bit of curiosity about CES's behavior? Mgm's FOSes:

Ether, Thesp, CDB, Fritz, Patrick, MBL

It goes beyond the votes and foses-there's no attempt to discern like you see with Glork on CES, for example. Something's rotten in Denmark, er, you know what I mean.

Glork, your take on Mgm hitting everyone hard except CES?

* I can't say that Patrick's been laying low because he's asked a fair amount of solid, relevant questions--some at times were questions I had in my mind as well. But why exactly is he clearest in our minds? Tone, proportionality, curiosity, for starters. He hasn't gotten results though, not that any of us have. I'm not willing to let him skate on tone alone.

vote: Thesp->IH->Glork->Adele->Mgm->Adele->Zindaras->CDB->Zindaras->Nightfall->Zindaras->BattleMage

Patrick hasn't been on any of the remaining players since Adele claimed. When I reread Patrick I got the sense that I didn't disagree with him often, and when I did, he was very reasonable about it. I feel placated, no offense Patrick I need to take another look at his posts with a more skeptical eye and with Patrick-CES and Patrick-Mgm in mind. I reviewed his approaches towards determining each of their alignments over the course of the game, and they're very different. Patrick was very involved with Mgm throughout, and seemed to shrug at CES, relatively speaking.

CES, if Patrick's scum, who do you think his scumpartner is and why? Does it appear to you he's intentionally avoided alienating people?

[MrBuddyLee]

B) Yes. He started off claiming with certainty that you are scum, and he appeared to become

more

certain.

Nope, I don't have a problem with that. My problem is that those posts I listed are the

only

observations and persuasions Thesp made about me before June 10th. That's the sum of it. No attempt to persuade, no attempt to qualify his suspicions. Just the sloppy blanket statements which obviously leave me cold.

If the scumpair was in {Glork, Thesp, Patrick}, they would have known that Mgm+CES would be offline overnight and thus would have felt comfortable waiting around for late night GMT to drop the 3rd and 4th votes on me. So I'm fairly confident in eliminating:

Glork-Patrick
Glork-Thesp
Thesp-Patrick
as our scumpair, meaning that I'm in the unique position of knowing that Thesp can only be scum if he's paired with CES.

[MrBuddyLee]

You know that Glork/Thesp/Patrick were all online and simulposted a few days ago. That's what the spam was about.

I know. I'm saying it's conceivable they were nervous and didn't hammer, but that's made much less likely by the fact that the first two on my stupid wagon were from Europe. I think one of those three scumteams would have found a way.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, if you're ready to vote, you must have incredible confidence that CES is scum and you must have a pretty good idea of who his scumpartner is.

Please tell me how you've arrived at your decision about CES. Is it process of elimination, ties to other scum, metagaming, gut, or are you giving up to some extent?

Please tell us who his scumpartner is, and why you've arrived at that conclusion over other possibilities. Feel free to list two.

Also, why haven't you asked Mgm or CES these questions? You've expressed displeasure with both of their votes on me, and yet haven't asked either one of them a single probing question about the reasoning behind their votes!

(Then again, who has?)

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm, please take for granted for a moment that I was telling the truth about thinking Glork was the cop and covering his tracks the day CDB was lynched.

Please explain your case for voting me in the absence of that incorrect assumption you've made.

[MrBuddyLee]

If you've been paying attention, MBL, you would have seen that I *have* been grilling CES. Like I said, I've tried to get CES to elaborate on all of his behavior -- including his suspicion of you -- yet he is at a total loss for any actual solid reason for thinking that you are scum.

Nice attempt at redirect. My comment was actually:

You've expressed displeasure with both of their votes on me, and yet haven't asked either one of them a single probing question about the reasoning behind their votes!

13 comments from you re: MBL since CES voted. Not one asking him anything about his vote. Not one asking Mgm for the reasons behind his vote. That's why I ask if you're "giving up", because you're certainly not trying to understand people's motivations for the most important vote in the game thus far. Since you've said you're not giving up, I'm left wondering why you're not asking them these critical questions.

[MrBuddyLee]

Actually, you posted:

CES:
Do you have some sort of aversion to making your analyses known to the rest of the town?
Do you expect anybody to accept you repeatedly saying "MGM and Glork are town" and "I am correct" and "I found Thesp as the Godfather" without substantiating those statements at all?
Do you feel that at least trying to explain your thoughts could in any way hurt your chances of convincing anybody else to agree with you?

Which I suppose meets the minimum requirements for curiosity, though it's not really asking him why he's voting for me. I don't think you ever asked Mgm about his votes on me either. Probably because you've been happy with those votes for whatever reason, but if you're town that shouldn't be good enough. How would you differentiate busing from legitimate suspicion?

[MrBuddyLee]

Why should he know that already? There's a whole lot of info to be had from today's voting patterns and whatever happens tomorrow. There's plenty of opportunities to collect definitive evidence.

You're naive or scum if you're not paying close attention to potential scumpartnerships as you analyze the current gamestate.

[MrBuddyLee]

The reason I've been mistrustful/disdainful of your arguments is because they're chock-full of misleading snarky sniping BS like this, your summary after I made a ton of posts explaining how I was going after Zindy for several information-related reasons, and you distilled the argument to:

So first you say you want him to tie himself to his buddies and now you admit he wouldn't talk anyway.

It's near impossible to make a solid case against a lurker, which is why I expect most players stayed away from it. I'd like to know why you thought there was a case to begin with, because I ain't seeing it.

Why you would want to lynch an inactive player is beyond me. They will die of a modkill or be replaced eventually, but trying to get them to connect themselves to their buddies won't work and setting your sights on a lynch when it's clear the affected player won't return is just stupid.

It's just sophomoric--you distorted every argument to the point of absurdity. And I can't carry on arguments with people who won't proceed logically, so all I can do is point out how your arguments are not addressing the actual statements I made.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork does not need to have "a pretty good idea" who it is before voting. All he needs to know before he votes is if CES is scum. (If he doesn't tell, he might get lucky and see his top suspect nightkilled)

This from the guy who asked two days ago:

If you had to put all your eggs in one basket right now and vote, who'd get the chop? Who are you least willing to lynch?

Epiphany or gambit? It looks to me like you're just arguing for the sake of argument at this point, because you're contradicting yourself.

This horse has now officially been beaten to death. RIP Buttercup.

Back on topic, if anyone told me Thesp was their top suspect, I'd look at them cross-eyed, largely because of scumpair circumstances. And then I'd ask them for their logic, and if they didn't address a certain requirement of Thesp's scumship, I'd strongly suspect they were sloppy lying scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

How do you combine that with the fact CES is at his throat. Do you see it as bussing?

*whoosh*

I don't see my question mention anything about scum partners for your top suspects because I didn't ask about that.

Each of us has four people we suspect. If someone tells you the person they want to lynch most and the person they're least likely to lynch, that leaves two suspects to fill the role of scumpartner. And in many cases, one of those two is already eliminated as a possibility, so your questions are nearly equivalent to asking a person who the scumpartner of their #1 is.

[MrBuddyLee]

If Patrick is scum:
80% his partner is CES
20% his partner is Mgm
Patrick had a ton to say about Mgm, and vice-versa. Does it look like distancing to protect his godfather in case Patrick gets lynched in endgame? Not particularly--there's just too much of it. Patrick shrugged off CES all game.

If Thesp is scum:
100% his partner is CES

If Glork is scum:
60% his partner is Mgm
40% his partner is CES
Both Mgm and CES played shoddily early in this game. I should probably metagame to confirm this, but I think Glork is more likely to attack a weak scumpartner early than ignore them. He attacked Mgm until he figured out Fritz was the cop, then suddenly Mgm appeared on his probably town list and CES on the likely scum list because Mgm distanced from CDB effectively. I also noted an awkward Mgm unvote of Glork and defensive explanation on D1.

If CES is scum:
20% his partner is Glork
15% his partner is Patrick
10% his partner is Thesp
55% his partner is Mgm


If Mgm is scum:
10% his partner is Patrick
30% his partner is Glork
60% his partner is CES

These are my thoughts after reading each player's interactions with each possible scumpartner. Not accurate to the decimal point, but it gives you a rough idea of what I'm thinking right now. I won't be voting Thesp today, of that I'm 100% positive. I don't think I'll be voting Patrick either. Mgm is investigated so he's probably not the right vote today. That leaves Glork and CES, and I'm more comfortable voting CES than Glork.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: CES

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, mFOS: Glork.

Either you're willing to lynch him or you're not. Please explain very clearly why you're FOSing me.

[MrBuddyLee]

You're half of the 2nd and 3rd most likely scumpairs in my mind, and I had convinced myself they were both far less likely than #1. I need to take some time to think about what your quick vote and unvote imply here.

I understand why you unvoted, if you're town. I need to think about what it implies if you're scum. This is me being conservative.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, what conclusions (if any) have you come to regarding why "GlorkScum" would have unvoted CES after you put Vote #3 on him.
Are you ready and willing to lynch CES still? If so, why have you not put your vote back on him?

I voted the way I did to test the firmness of your vote. There was a risk of Mgm waking up early and hammering if you two are scum together, but I stayed with the thread ready to unvote and figured I'd have a good chance of getting a reaction out of you first. I was comfortable enough with the CES vote that if worst-case scenario Mgm hammered, I wouldn't feel terrible about losing that way. CES is still most likely scum. I won't revote until I see this discussion play out.

I think if you are scum with CES and not Mgm, you would take advantage of the opportunity to distance from him and make me a suitable alternative vote for tomorrow. If you were partners with Mgm I think you'd have let the vote stand for another few hours instead of unvoting.

If CES-Mgm is our scumpair, your actions are a bit reactive, but basically make sense.

Thesp and Patrick aren't really trying very hard, probably because if they're town they're lazy and if they're scum they don't want to do anything to jeopardize this "safe status" conferred upon them by our collective lack of suspicion. Mgm and CES are playing weird, with a hint of defensiveness and not playing the logical way I'd expect. (I know Mgm will smack me for saying so and CES will shrug and move on to his next non-sequitur.)

Mgm, do you still find me to be most suspicious at this point?
Glork, would you have unvoted CES if I'd tacked on a cursory "Oh well, here goes nothing" like you did? Why haven't you revoted him yet?
CES, have you learned anything from Glork's song and dance here? Do you think he's Mgm's scumpartner, or are you still locked into MBL-Thesp 100%?

[MrBuddyLee]

So basically you're saying, "MBL, if only you'd dressed up your vote sufficiently, you'd have won the game by now."

Seriously, you use this line all the time but it applies here. Give me some credit for not being an idiot. I'm not sure I buy this, considering you supposedly risked the game in the first place with your vote of CES. Maybe I could understand the initial kneejerk jitters, but prolonged handwringing in this situation doesn't smell right to me.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, are you saying if you'd seen Mgm come online you'd have removed the vote?

I was I guess I'd say 80% comfortable with a CES-Mgm pairing, but if Glork hadn't posted so quickly I'd probably have removed the vote anyway before Mgm arrived on the scene, just so we could have another day of discussion on the events. (He usually posts around 1AM my time.) I kind of expected Glork to post and make SOME comment, but his unvote was not entirely expected.

Most of my doubts revolved around Glork-Mgm or Glork-CES. I'm kind of pleased that the tactic seems to have eliminated Glork-Mgm, because that was, to me, the more likely of the two alternate possibilities.

[MrBuddyLee]

To be honest, Glork, I hadn't seen your vote until three or so hours had passed. I was frustrated by lack of insight shown in the thread and was getting closer to placing such a vote myself. I thought about it for a bit and decided to place my vote and see what transpired. I was refreshing every five minutes or so, not expecting to see an Mgm post, and hoping to see a Glork post.

Glork, if you were really so paranoid about Patrick+MBL or Mgm+MBL, why'd you place your vote on CES? It would have been trivial for scuMBL to wait until 4am US time and pile on for the win. I'm pretty sure you know I'm a night owl. Your concern and your reaction to my post really don't seem proportional to your voting action.

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm and CES are on me.
Thesp's on CES.
Glork, Patrick and I aren't voting.

If I vote CES now, the following scumteams could hammer:
Mgm-Glork (seemingly eliminated the other night)
Glork-Patrick (eliminated by lack of hammer on me)
Patrick-Mgm (not seeing it at all)

vote: CES

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, if you were really so paranoid about Patrick+MBL or Mgm+MBL, why'd you place your vote on CES? It would have been trivial for scuMBL to wait until 4am US time and pile on for the win. I'm pretty sure you know I'm a night owl. Your concern and your reaction to my post really don't seem proportional to your voting action.

[MrBuddyLee]

This isn't going anywhere, which is making me more and more sure that the Mgm-CES hypothesis is on the money. Glork and Patrick, what the heck are you guys waiting for? You can't both be scum, so at least one of you is dragging your feet needlessly. I'm the only alternative, and I get zero sense that anyone's interested in voting me. It's not like I'm going to sprout horns and suddenly your choice will be made obvious.

Finish this. Lynch the scummy guy. Either of them. Preferably the one that's quit trying.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork seems to lay out a three-pronged case against me:

1) Glork was investigated by Fritz
2) Glork was the tipping point on CDB, MBL took the easy bus
3) Thesp was killed because he was the biggest threat to MBL today

My initial take on this, as town, is that if Glork is town, then Patrick is scum and Glork seems to be zeroing in on me as the scumbag which isn't thorough scumhunting. However, I'm tempted to do the same as Patrick hasn't given me nearly the scum vibes Glork has this game, so I can't fault Glork for that reason. If Patrick is scum I don't know what we could do to unravel the magnificent cover job he's thrown up over five days of this game.

I don't know what to say about (1). Glork would be the most likely investigation by Fritz, but there's no overt sign that Fritz got a result. If I had to decide between two equally scummy people I might let that thin possibility sway me, but more likely I'd find something else to break the tie.

To (2), I don't have an argument about the lynch itself--I didn't see CDB as scum. The time I was cop and caught CDB as scum, he was transparently manipulative and oily--in contrast he just looked lazy this game. Glork made a RADICAL leap and I couldn't attribute it to anything other than he was the cop. I read his posts several times to see if there was anything else he could be getting at, or to see if he was being typical early-game reckless Glork, or reckless scum Glork. It felt different, I assumed he was the cop, and as I've explained I took action to cover for him. I can guarantee you that if I was your final scumbag and Glork was town, I would have killed Glork after the CDB lynch. Whoever killed Fritz as cop was far better at reading Fritz than me, and I would posit that person is much more likely to be Glork than Patrick.

As for (3), it looks like a pretty solid WIFOM job on me by scum. I think scum had to choose between killing one of the two confirmed innocents last night, and killing Thesp was killing the more acclaimed scumhunter. Thesp found me scummy, but less so than Mgm found me scummy. I think Thesp and Mgm both had a scumlist MBL->Glork->Patrick, but Mgm's was firmer. When I realized Mgm wasn't scum end of day yesterday, I thought he'd be left alive instead of Thesp, considering he's been voting me exclusively for about three months straight, holding to his reason like a pit bull with zero sign of letting go--heck, it took an act of god to get him to vote the exquisitely scummy CES. As I think the logic through now, I'm pretty sure I'd have killed Mgm if I was scum, and therefore Glork's (3) is dissonant.

I've been out of town on July 4th holiday but I'll have some pointed questions for Glork when I return tonight or tomorrow. I've played a common-sense game and though I mistook scumCDB for lazy town CDB, I think I was on to CES all game and I smelled something funny about Glork in the way he attacked me after the CDB lynch. I didn't foment bad lynches--Andrew, Adele--and I didn't hammer Thesp because I wasn't confident enough in his alignment to kill off a very good player. I'm not the last scum, and if you're really interested in ascertaining my alignment you should read my play start to finish and see if you can discern sincerity and pro-town play or not. I think scum would be more likely to pick a perceived weak point or two of the weakest player right now and hammer on it politically, and I'm starting to see that behavior from Glork already.

Glork, if you're town, Patrick is snowing us. How likely is that possibility? I must admit, I'm WAY more likely to push for your lynch today.

Also, Glork, your certainty on Zindaras still bothers me--please point out what posts of his made you confident enough to state flatly he wasn't scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

If he comes up scum and I'm dead, look into Nightfall, CES, Zindy and eventually MgM later in the game.

Why these people, who you didn't mention again and include Nightfall, specifically?

Best I can reconstruct:

Mgm for his train of thought that was along the lines of:

I don't remember anyone posting a reason and that's the very reason I don't like the CDB wagon.

Felt like he was waiting for other people to do the work instead of determining for himself if CDB was scummy--not demonstrating curiosity at all.

Zindaras I found scummy all along, and he consistently found CDB town with no explanation.

Nightfall for completely ignoring the CDB discussion, looked avoidant.

CES because he was obsessed with the guy who'd been hammering CDB for days, and if Thesp was likely town, that gave possible insight into CES's alignment.

Glork, Thesp, Fritz, and to a lesser extent Patrick and Ether seemed more good-guy due to their recent activity re: CDB.

[MrBuddyLee]

I decided to compare his behavior in the early stages of this game with his behavior in one of Kelly's open-setup games, in which MBL was a member of the Mafia.

Note that on the two townie lynches, MBL was either doing his own thing or not voting at all. Compare to the early end-of-days of this game -- pretty much the exact same behavior. One manner in which I believe MBLscum tries to keep suspicion off of him is by simply staying away from the chic mislynch of the day.

I also remember MBL's behavior being very similar in Himalayan -- he consistently went after CES while most of the mislynches occurred without him actively supporting them. I think that's about how he managed to win that game.

I think that while MBL is trying to use "I stayed away from the bad lynches" as a defense, it serves to provide no such comfort, as

MBL's tendency as scum is to shy away from a big mislynch, and to join a wagon on scum as soon as possible once the scales have been tipped.

I read this and the first thing that crossed my mind was, "Glork should know better, this is how I play as scum AND town." I'm not impressed with the piecemeal manufacturing of evidence, or that your first assumption when I'm playing pretty well is that it's devious bullshit.

Glork picked one game out, well, here are the other two I played in NY--as town:

SpeedyKQ's Big NY (I am vanilla)

M-M, doctor (not on)
Twito, townie (not on)
vikingfan, goon (ON)
Fortify, goon (ON)
armlx, townie (not on)

Big 5-0 (I am doc)

Nightfall, goon (not on)

greyjoy, townie (ON, but he was quicklynched retardedly)

twito, townie (ON)

armlx, townie (not on)

max, townie (ON)

This game (I am vanilla)

Andrew, townie (not on)
Thesp, townie (not on)
CDB, scum (ON)

Nightfall, townie (not on but would have been eventually I think)

CES, scum (ON)

This is how I play. I'm cautious, and I don't like to be on lynches I don't feel good about. I think if you check all of my games you'll find it VERY rare that I'm on the lynch of an innocent who's a good player. In the above games I helped lynch Twito and Max as town... hardly crimes.

And that's basically why I didn't hammer Thesp, he's a very good player and I wouldn't lynch him if I wasn't pretty sure about his alignment. Nothing worse than having a good scumhunting member of your team go down due to careless votes.

Glork, have you done a meta on Patrick as well or only on the easier lynch?

As for your stance on Zindy, I suppose you addressed my questions halfway before but I still don't understand how you could say

"He isn't scum."

before he was lynched, considering how little we had to go on, and now say you weren't certain about his alignment. I see those kinds of reckless, bold, often inaccurate statements from you D1, maybe D2 as town but not much deeper into the game.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL's tendency as scum is to shy away from a big mislynch, and to join a wagon on scum as soon as possible once the scales have been tipped.

Yeah, I knew I smelled horseshit--you just cooked up a

completely

false meta on me. As I demonstrated in my last post, as

town

I shy away from big mislynches, and as scum:

NY:
Himalayan
Mr. Flay, scum (not on)

Werewolves
Vaughn, scum (ON)
Mariyta, scum (not on)

I was

NOT

likely to wagon my partners.

Glork, I expect town to make mistaken cases against me fairly and proportionally, and I expect scum to press bogus cases on me by twisting and omitting facts. You are by and large doing the latter. I'm basically going to side with the one of you who's made sincere attempts to find scum throughout this game, and the one who's made the least odd-smelling remarks, and if you're town and cooking bogus cases against me, you'll be the one responsible if we lose.

Right now, your claim to fame is that you spotted Fritz-cop, followed him valiantly onto the CDB-wagon and then Fritz died overnight. You've hung your hat on it, which I don't see town doing because it's not an impressive show in and of itself. That defense reeks of desperation. That alone--weighed against your bizarre situational attitudes towards several players, has you smelling more like skunk than rose.

mFOS: Glork

[MrBuddyLee]

recollections--
Patrick was mostly on IH D1 from what I recall, took some pokes at Mgm and essentially drove the IH vig. D2 he sparred with Thesp I think and voted Mgm and maybe Glork, chose not to hammer Thesp. D3 was on Zindy I think and was initially suspect of Thesp's case and then listened earnestly to the CDB debate, eventually changing his mind on him. D4 Patrick pressed Zindy hard, then eventually agreed to the BM/Nightfall lynch. D5, Patrick found Mgm and CES scummiest, followed by MBL, and was 3rd to vote CES. Today, Patrick is asking me questions and not Glork, who he's found pro-town since D3.

Glork goofed around D1, fueled wagons on Andrew and sv til she claimed, may have hammered Andrew. D2 pressed Mgm, chastised Thesp for a shitty D1, called Patrick useless, saw eye-to-eye with me at one point. Pressed Mgm-Adele and voted Adele til she claimed. Ended up on Thesp. D3 did two huge analysis posts, spotted Fritz-cop, switched from I believe Zindy to CDB. D4 started out on Zindy then bizarrely made his way to finding Zindy town and me and Nightfall scum despite no posts from Zindy. After the modkill, attacked me and then switched to Nightfall/BM. D5 poked at Mgm-CES-MBL. Today is laser-focused on me and his arguments are not particularly honest.

opinions on GvP before they died--
AndrewS-nothing.
IH-said if he was a vig, Glork was on his short list
Zindy-found Glork sketchy and didn't remark on Patrick, who was hounding him.
Adele-found both Patrick and Glork scummy.
Fritz-nothing.
Nightfall/BM-Found Glork scummy.
Ether/CTD-nothing
Thesp-nothing

optional nks--
Ether/CTD NKed instead of Patrick N4--no one found Patrick suspicious, so why didn't he die instead of CTD? Both found Glork pro-town.

Thesp NKed instead of Mgm N5--Mgm found Patrick more suspect than Glork, Thesp found Patrick thoroughly pro-town.

pushes--
"I do have another theory, which involves MBL and Andrew as scumbuddies"
"MBL and Nightfall. Hmm. I have vaguely considered it, I remember MBL defending Nightfall quite alot against Ether's attacks"

Glork:
"Guarantee you right now that one of MBL/Zindaras is scum."
"I really get the feeling that MBL knew CDB was screwed, likely because of a Cop investigation, so he decided to look like one of the guys taking CDB down, and then he became responsible for the nightkill of Fritz."
"Actually, yeah, MBL/Nightfall is looking really good right now."

"I'm willing to put MBL off until we learn Nightfall's alignment."
--why, what would nightfall town vs nightfall scum have implied differently about me?

"I honsestly get the feeling that MBL is intentionally playing both sides of the BM-coin so that he can decide whether he needs to bus BM or whether he can slide suspicion away from him at some point"

associations pre-reveal--
Patrick
"I think it's possible that CDB is just being used as the scum patsy here"
"Your case against CDB is reaching"
"I could see Zindaras/CDB together, and out of the two I'd prefer to kill Zindaras"
"I'm not really feeling the CES wagon."
"CES-I admit I'm partially relying on others who know him better. Not sure how he might play as scum"
"CES: Meh. I dunno"
"I think there are better places to look than CES at this point, like Zindaras"
"I'm not sold on CES being town, but still don't like the wagon on him, as it felt almost too easy to be true."
"I could see Nightfall/MBL as scum jumping on CES"
"MBL, it's strange that you are voting CES and not Zindaras, since Zindaras seems to be your top suspect percentage wise."
"My gut says Mgm is trying to ease his way onto busing CES after a whole game of defending him"


Glork to CES: "I feel that you're in a very similar category with CDB"
"I could actually see Thesp+CDB as a scumgroup right now."
"I see a potential MGM-CES link, Thesp+CDB link"
"Thesp still seems to think that CDB is Andrew's scumbuddy. He still hasn't named a single reason for it"
"Patrick takes a brief look at CDB, calling his efforts underwhelming."
"I could dig CDB-Zindaras-Ether right now. Maybe Nightfall instead of Ether."
"Glork also notes that Patrick, Zindaras, and Nightfall are being lazy/lurky... (Interesting that CDB called two of these three pro-town, eh?)"
"Zindie commits one of my favorite scumtells in 641, protecting CDB"
"I am loving a Zindie+CDB pairing"
"he may get knocked down a notch

when

CDB turns up scum"

"I could definitely see CES+Thesp in cahoots together. I'm sensing some kind of interaction between them"
"Possible MGM-CES connection has been logged and noted (yes, despite MGM having an innocent investigation on him)"
"There have been an awful lot of Zindie-CES interactions."
"I don't trust you, CES"
"I just thought of something and suddenly have very cold feet about CES."
"CES, my meta is telling me that even though I think you're a complete idiot, I'm no longer completely convinced that you're still scum"
"the kind of stubbornness I'm seeing in CES is a pro-town tell"
"it's not CES who is the dirty scumbag jumping aboard to bus his scumbuddy, but MBL"
"His tactic is obvious: Push a mislynch against CES, push a mislynch against Ether, then go all-out against me in endgame."
"CES, I don't care if you're not that good at reading so-and-so. I want you to at least make an effort."
"I think that CES needs to come out of the shadows and actually *do* something today."
"Even as I tell CES to do more, I have a feeling that he'll still provide minimul contribution/discussion"

Glork spent a lot of energy drawing connections between various people and CES/CDB before they were revealed. Patrick's relevant comments are more nudges away from CES/CDB than associative.

[MrBuddyLee]

What do you think of MBL's attempt to link me to CDB by claiming that my unvote was because Lynch-1 was "too close for comfort"?

Glork, I thought you were a cop. I was trying to associate you and CDB to obfuscate that fact with that post... you're trolling with pretty wide nets at this point.

[MrBuddyLee]

Now, given how stubborn Thesp has been in his attacks and given that Thesp is a very renowned scumhunter

who has proven his ability in this game by nailing both CDB and CES before anybody else did

, I want to know exactly why you think MBLscum would have chosen to kill you over Thesp.

Aren't you accusing Mgm of WIFOM and then engaging in some yourself in the very next paragraph here?

Also, you are the only suspect alive who tried to kill this "very reknowned scumhunter" end of D2. I just reread your PBPAs, and you found Thesp "likely protown" by post 509 and very likely protown by post 589. But in the thread, you found him scummish around 509-589 and then you voted to lynch him in post 821. But you left some room for error, and even took a shot at setting up next lynches if Thesp turned up innocent:

If Thesp is pro-town, Adele and MGM are

so

dying next.

Guys, I don't think Thesp is the play.

Unvote, Vote: Thesp

So what you're trying to have us believe here is that you are town who didn't read very carefully D1/D2? Because as I read your three PBPAs from D3, it looks like you found Thesp scummy through two of them, then realized Fritz was the cop and went back and revised your attitude in your third post to make it look like you changed your mind on Thesp's scumminess based on Thesp's words when that's actually not what you did at all.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick and Mgm, please reread posts 980-1001 (around page 40) and clear this up for Glork--he is being obstinate or he is scum. If you have any questions for me, please ask--again, what happened was:

* I saw Glork way too firm on CDB, out of line with the evidence CDB had given us.
* I decided he was the cop and that he had decided to bring forth his lynch recommendation under shoddy cover and was overplaying it, drawing attention to himself.
* I decided to buy that he was the cop since there was nothing else that could possibly explain it.
* I invented a reason for people to find CDB scummy in hopes that the focus would move off a possible investigation and onto CDB's words.
* I attacked Glork mildly in an attempt to obfuscate the fact that I thought he was the cop.
* I hinted that Glork should shut up and let people shift the focus to CDB's words.

Funny thing is, I reacted exactly as Glork should have expected town to react to his actions, and yet he's repeatedly attacking me for it and making it a cornerstone of his phony case.

Also, Glork, I'm awaiting your clarification on that fake meta you cooked up against me.

[MrBuddyLee]

So Glork, let me get this straight:

In your Post Subject: 131 ("view posts by Glork") you made a PBPA analysis, then when you got halfway through (post 576) you realized Fritz was the cop, so you went back through and edited your PBPA before posting it so that you would appear to be trusting Thesp and thus providing cover for your FOS of CDB.

Also, you're telling me that rereading the following posts convinced you that Fritz was the cop, but somehow you

missed

that the first time you read Fritz's response back in February?

thesp, whose the play?

You didn't ask me, Fritz?

You didn't ask me, Fritz?

:no:

if that was a smilie, he'd be shaking his head and have a sad lookon his face

I'm thinking that if you know Fritz as well as you claim to, you'd have known

immediately

upon reading that exchange back in February that Fritz was the cop with an innocent on Thesp, and were prepared to kill him that night until Adele gave you a 2nd cop to lynch!

I'd expect you to butter up Fritz at that point, in an attempt to avoid investigation, and that's exactly what happened. You knew Fritz was a cop D2, didn't you? You knew he had an investigation on Thesp and you voted Thesp anyway!

Urge to lynch rising... Glork's play over time is FAR scummier than Patrick's. There are WAY too many oddities and things that can't be explained if he's pro-town.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, more Glork bullpuckey:

Another misrepresentation. I moved to the Thespwagon at day's end to secure a lynch, because I felt that the information would be good for the town. No-Lynching on Day Two is a

terrible

thing, because D1/D2 behavior is oftentimes the most important behavior in teh game. We need as much information as we can get early on, so

that's why I moved to Thesp despite having top suspects elsewhere

.

No, you found Thesp scummy that day:

I'm slightly more confident in MGM/Adele than I am in Thesp right now.

I could probably be persuaded to move to Thesp if I don't get my way, though.

You pushed hard on Adele/Mgm and found Thesp slightly less scummy because Adele/Mgm were pushing him, but Thesp was your #3. Once your top two came up investigated/cop, you were left with Thesp as your primary suspect.

Please point out this "top suspects elsewhere", because I don't see them anywhere in that late D2 discussion. Just Thesp.

[MrBuddyLee]

"avoid the play of the day" in the early game

I can't say this more stridently, as a player who's proud of my conservative play:

I don't like to lynch incorrectly, it's a point of pride, and as town I would rather end days without a lynch than lynch a good player incorrectly.

Your crappy fake meta, that I avoid wagons D1 as scum, can only be a meta if I don't do the same thing as town. Any of you can take the time to pick five or ten of my games and look at the D1/D2 wagons, and you'll find that far more often than not, I'm not on the crappy ones.

Even if you thought you had a correct meta, it's WRONG in this case, and I'm left wondering why you're placing so much weight on such a garbage argument at this point in the game.

Misrepresentation. That's how I was hoping that scum would react, not how I "expected town" to react.

You keep pretending I'm misrepresenting you, when actually I'm stating truth. You can't make a frog into a princess just by calling it a princess-you gotta do the legwork.

Please clarify how you'd expect town to react if they spotted you pretending to be the cop, as you've acknowledged you did D3.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, remember that Bond game you ran? Here's the D1 lynch of the doctor:

Dur-Galad 5 (PookyTheMagicalBear, Dragon Phoenix, Fritzler, wolfsbane, Jayden95)
wolfsbane 5 (Dur-Galad, Coron, serinah80, TheEyeOfMordor, Mariyta)
Jayden95 1 (Mastermind of Sin)
Mariyta 1 (MrBuddyLee)

I was the vig, remember?

I also recall us being in a lil game called Lights Out 2 together. I called out three scum right before the second lynch of an innocent townie. (ih, thok, axelrod). I wasn't on either of the two huge lynches of innocent townies.

mikeburnfire: 11 (ether, fritzler, glork, ih, jsexton, mr stoofer, yosarian2, brianmcqueso, petroleumjelly, zindaras, cogito ergo sum)

draygn_mage: 10 (twito, fritzler, ih, yosarian, cogito ergo sum, mr stoofer, shadowlurker, grakthis, glork, ether)

I was a townie, remember?

I can do this all day, but it's nice out, and I will have to settle for calling you and your bogus meta loads of donkey doo. (Albeit you are a more intelligent, friendly load than your meta.)

I could be harsh and point out that you being on terrible D1/D2 wagons is a decent meta that you're town, but I have a feeling you also do that as scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

I had turned a blind eye towards Fritz for most of the game

You hadn't turned a blind eye, you'd made it a point of listing him as one of your three pro-townies. Clearly you professed some kind of read on him far before you claim to have spotted his copness in March:

People who are pro-town: Patrick, Nightfall, probably Fritzler. Short list so far; this town has been pretty scummy as a whole.

but when he flat-out called everyone stupid for suspecting Thesp, I had a "DURR, OBVOBV" moment. This post, which occurred between Part II and Part III of mylengthy analysis, is what made me realize that Fritz was the cop.

So you missed the Feb. 23rd, March 1st and March 8th hints on your reread but caught the one from March 15th? And you missed ALL of those hints in February/March despite the fact that you know Fritzler better than anyone:

When Fritz comes out of nowhere and just asserts that people are pro-town, it's

almost

always a sign that he's a cop...

I daresay it's blindingly obvious when Fritzler is a cop, at least in my opinion.

To my knowledge, he does not simply waltz up and state that people are pro-town if he doesn't have some kind of information.

the fact that Fritz's "X is pro-town" play is so

exclusively

a sign that he's a Cop (or, at least, that he has reliable role information) that I couldn't see him doing it as either a Townie or a Mafiate.

So you claim to have missed the blindingly obvious about your friend on your initial read, even though you had him on your tiny protown list for some inexplicable reason?

Also, I'm confused--did you spot Fritz as cop during your reread, or as the following implies, spot it the first time Fritz made his remark in early March?

Can someone point out the exact post that made them think Fritzler investigated Thesp?

Very beginning of D3, I ask Fritz what he thought about possibly lynching Thesp. He said something like "I wouldnt' want to lynch Thesp because you guys are stupid."

It seemed quite obvious to me at that time.

This post,

which occurred between Part II and Part III of mylengthy analysis

, is what made me realize that Fritz was the cop. I remembered his following of Thesp on D2 and the conversation he had with me. I did all of Part III operating under the conclusion that Fritz was very likely the cop.

The first response reads as if you knew it the moment Fritz said it, the second implies that you didn't figure it out until right between Parts II and III of your reread.

Occam's razor points to you as the most likely person responsible for Fritz's death N3. You were the only person who clearly knew he was a cop, and there's evidence you may have obfuscated how early you actually realized that fact.

[MrBuddyLee]

his soft stance towards CDB D1, his rapid flip-flop on CDB D2 (remember that he tried to turn off the CDB wagon by stating that the people on it were suspicious)

Are you talking about yourself here? You didn't mention CDB a single time during D1.

D2, you placed him safely behind your top 3 suspects:

My list is currently MGM, then Thesp/Adele (they're pretty interchangable), then CDB, then Ether

And later D2:

Thesp/CDB have slipped a bit

and then you said someone attacking CDB was suspicious:

the fact that MGM/Adele so readily jumped aboard the Thespwagon seems very dubious. Adele took a shot at Ether shortly after I implicated her.

I believe (though I may misremember) that she took a shot at CDB around the time he picked up some suspicion.

And now that the Thesplynch seems chic, she's climbing aboard for certain.

Opportunism galore!

Oh, and before you accuse me of being soft on CDB D1/D2, you included me in the short list of people "poking at him D2":

With a couple of players (Thesp, MBL, myself) having poked at CDB

, it seemed like you were appealing to others for some kind of basis on which to bandwagon.

And now a vote. I guess you know Patrick's town somehow... either this is the same townie certainty that's gotten you 50-50 results on BM, Zindy, CES and CDB, or else you're scum who's found an intractable situation and is choosing their only possible target at this juncture.

[MrBuddyLee]

So again, did you realize Fritz was the cop the moment you read this for the first time on March 15th:

yes, cuz he's not scum and you guys are retarded

Or did you realize he was the cop the second time you read that, while you were in the middle of your reread and PBPA later?

And for emphasis, you claim to have missed all the other cop hints in Feb/March, including when you were disappointed about him asking Thesp instead of you

"who's the play?"

on February 23rd?

Because later, you claim to know EXACTLY what

"who's the play?"

means coming from Fritz:

I could be mistaken, but I think that his N2 investigation was me, as indicated by his

"Hey Glork, who's the play?"

post. It's quite typical of the way he behaves when he gets an innocent -- he indicates complete trust in his target.

[MrBuddyLee]

Thank you, Patrick. I was beginning to think my hours of work over the weekend had gone for naught.

[MrBuddyLee]

Did you catch that the first time you read Fritz's post, or later, during your reread? That's the question we're getting at, because it looks like you've given two different answers.

[MrBuddyLee]

I just went looking for Fritz's cop info--I find it difficult to believe he wouldn't leave us ANYTHING to go on, especially considering the day ended at deadline so he wasn't surprised by the end of day.

N1, he either got a guilty on Adele or innocent on Thesp (and at this point we know it couldn't have been the former):

feb 14th-end of D1
feb 19:
I'm more likely to trust thesp than adele.
CONFIRM VOTE: ADELE
also, you're scum
If this was face to face mafia Glork and I would be lost in each other's eyes
thesp, whose the play?
:no: (didnt inv glork n1)
guys thesp is such a bad lynch right now
anyone want to run up adele so thesp isn't lynched?

And I can interpret his only significant contribution D3 in one of three ways:

march 14th-end of D2
march 15th
yes, cuz he's (Thesp) not scum and you guys are retarded
following ":knowstuff:[/Fritz]"
march 17th
glork is so icey
who do you want to lynch?

1) He has an innocent on Glork from N2
2) He thinks Glork's "knowstuff" means Glork's a cop and he wants to follow Glork. Since this is impossible once Adele's dead, perhaps he's trying to help make Glork look like the cop.
3) Fritz never left us a clue to his 2nd investigation.

In SpeedyKQ's NY game, Glork killed Fritz N3. Fritz investigated raj N1, BJ N2.

"RAJ isn't scum guys. "
"pretty sure bj is town so...."

Kingmaker:
I don't think n lich is that scummy.
If anything I'd say n lich is a GG
I don't think n-lich should be nailed.
that's cuz n lich and me are pro town
I'LL SAY IT AGAIN, NEIGHT FRITZ NOR N LICH IS THE PLAY
What else have I done? Said n lich isn't the play? cuz he's not.
IM A COP THAT INVESTEGATED N LICH
(LOL)

So I'd venture that it's unlike Fritz to fail to hint at his result. Obviously Glork keys into Fritzcop, but he's already admitted to spotting it before Fritz was killed so that's moot.

Glork, have you ever seen Fritz fail to hint at his cop result?

[MrBuddyLee]

Suppose I am killed overnight.
Would you second-guess yourself out of voting Patrick, too, for not killing the guy who was dead-set on him being scum?

LOL MGM don't answer that! Whether or not Glork is scum asking this question, this would prep scum for tonight's choice... sheesh.

[MrBuddyLee]

Still trying to decide between Glork and Patrick. Glork has seemed significantly more scummy this game, but there's probably a 60% chance he's been investigated. I've never seen Patrick as scum for comparison, but he sounds consistently reasonable this game, just hasn't gotten results. I also recall Patrick getting angry at one point and it read very pro-town, but I'd have to see if he's capable of feigning indignance effectively as scum. I'm going to read some games where Patrick was scum and see what I can learn, I guess, because the way Glork has played, I just can't bring myself to vote Patrick over him right now.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, you must have read my posts where I actually went back and analyzed Fritzler's history as cop in other games. Once I did that, I realized what a terrible cop he is, as far as giving himself away is concerned. His hints are so unsubtle in every game that he'd might as well come out and say "Thesp is town, I'm a cop" from now on.

Before I'd done that metagame on Fritz, I didn't think that his D3 play gave away an investigation target at all. Thus I wasn't willing to lend much credence to the theory that Glork conveniently posted three times before anyone else bought it--that HE was Fritz's investigation target N2.

This leaves me two possibilities:

1) Glork is scum who spotted Fritz-cop and offed him asap, and also noted the fact that Fritz only came remotely close to clearing one person on D3. Glork boldly decided to claim that he was Fritz's N2 target. Fritz absolutely failed to hint at his investigation target in this scenario, for one of the only times ever on record that I can find.

2) Fritz did a better job than usual of concealing his investigation target D3, even though he gave his N1 target away blatantly D2. The only hint is:

:knowstuff:[/Fritz]

glork is so icey
who do you want to lynch?

And Patrick is scum.

Clearly I'm not willing to risk this entire game on that one lone quote by Fritz. But Fritz's history speaks for itself--he always drops cop hints. It's possible he didn't because 1) he was still busy defending his N1 inv target and 2) CDB was under fire, Fritz clearly didn't have a result on him, and didn't feel he was at risk for a nightkill compared to others who provided cover during D3.

[MrBuddyLee]

That was my first large game ever, and it was ages ago. All I knew was Fritz is the guy who never says much of anything, since I played my first newbie with him. And Glorkscum kept trying to get newbie-me lynched.

Short answer: no, I'm not a Fritz expert.

[MrBuddyLee]

Interesting timing of your first substantive suspicions of Patrick today, Glork. You've gone after me

exclusively

today, but now that I'm actually considering voting Patrick over you, which would make him lynchable today, you've "seen the light"?

REALLY feels like you decided the easiest lynch of the day just switched from me to Patrick. Particularly from the guy who just said 12 hours ago:

Needless to say, Mgm, I've got my heart set on lynching MBL right now.

and who chided Mgm for his singular focus a few days ago:

I was concerned about you shutting out MBLscum as a possibility, because I really think that MBL is the last scumbag right now.

[MrBuddyLee]

As I said, I would have been more comfortable with your analysis if it'd come sooner, but can you honestly say I shouldn't be suspicious of the timing?

And this is just silly:

It feels like you're trying to put me in a lose-lose situation here.

Of course I want everyone bringing their game. Of course I see you as more reasonable now that you're not dead set on mislynching. But I need to give my first impression of your Patrick post and there it is. Everyone makes mistakes and maybe you're not scum, maybe you were just roleplaying errant pit bull.

To be honest, my first impression of your MBL post was "there he goes again, slamming me and ignoring Patrick AGAIN."

considering you treated CDB with kid-gloves during the most crucial part of the Thesp/Glork/Fritz push against him

If an analogy helps you understand this better, it's similar to how you were on Thesp when you found Mgm/Adele suspect. Only an idiot would have found Thesp entirely townish, but since you found Adele and Mgm scummiest, and they were riding Thesp hard, you moved Thesp down on your list. Similarly, even though CDB hadn't done anything pro-town, I moved him down on my scumlist because of Thesp's strident attacks on him.

[MrBuddyLee]

The fact that I made a post-by-post analysis on each of you, and that they both amounted to the same conclusion ("Both players took a disturbingly soft stance towards both CDB and CES throughout most of D1 through D3.") would suggest an objective, balanced analysis of the early part of the game, would it not?

You should work for a politician.

Yes, it appeared to be a fair and balanced approach. That's not what I took issue with.

I've chafed that you've been ignoring Patrick all day, which has had me wondering if you're pushing me, the easy lynch. Because it sure hasn't looked like scumhunting up til now. And then just as Mgm has voted Patrick and I'm coming around to consider Patrick, you post your first "thoughtful" analysis of Patrick all day.

Tell me with a straight face I shouldn't be suspicious of that. I should instead lap contentedly at the frothy words of the Paragon's "analysis".

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm, please make a clear factual case for why Glork is 100% confirmed in your eyes, using quotes from the cop as your evidence.

[MrBuddyLee]

Can I finish Clash of Kings first please?

[MrBuddyLee]

Considering that you've spent the whole day going after a townie, Patrick, I don't think Mgm's likely to heed your admonitions.

Mgm, we know you're town. We still need to tell you when we think you're playing in a way that'll piss the game away. At least one of Patrick and I are town, and we're both saying you're hasty in the lockdown of your vote. Even Glork seems unhappy that you've locked in to Patrick. I suppose the scum amongst us wants to keep his options open, but there's a good chance you're wrong on Patrick. If you weren't confirmed town, I'd find you scummy for your certainty right now because I don't think the facts back it up. Please take the time to answer my question about Fritz carefully, thanks.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL: If you felt that CDB was actively lurking so hard, why didn't you choose to take any action, especially after he failed to change his ways after your initial comments towards him?

Probably because I was probing Thesp, who'd put me on his short list D1 for no good reason, and Thesp also happened to be pushing CDB ruthlessly. I also thought I had a weak meta on CDB. As the cop in WoT, I chose to investigate him N3 because he was...

oily

. Manipulative and sleazy, and sure enough he turned up scum. I got no such vibe this game, and thus placed him in the "weak town" category.

Suddenly MBL is all anti-CDB. What happened between last post and this one?

I was thoroughly boggled by your posts indicating certainty of CDB's scumminess. I reread to see if you were just being typical Glork, but it read different to me. There was NOTHING in the day's play to give you that degree of certainty on CDB. You voted someone else out of the blocks, then used a PBPA as the opportunity to explain your shift of opinion to CDB and away from Thesp, after which you expressed yourself in certainties. I considered whether you'd have investigated Thesp or CDB that night, and decided that choosing CDB was entirely reasonable for a cop who found Thesp suspect.

Just how much cake do you want to have and eat? Do you rob bakeries when you're not off killing innocents?

Yes, and I have to work extra hard on my tan to conceal the pasty whiteness from all the incidental flour.

I'd like you to explain your behavior towards both CES and CDB in the early parts of the game.

I explained CDB--I had a weak meta and I suspected Thesp. I think scum often go after weak sheep, and when Thesp went after me, Andrew and CDB I sensed opportunism. As for CES, I noticed he was more active than usual D1--excited about the game for whatever reason. I've heard he vastly prefers being scum to town, so that was something to keep an eye on. He's in the Fritz category where his contributions are harder to analyze, so you need to hit him hard on the few significant actions he does take. In this game, his first really notable action was his shilling for the Thespwagon, and as Thesp's alignment became clearer, that gave reason to suspect CES.

MBL: If you think that I was being opportunistic to go after Patrick, what do you have to say about the fact that I made a lengthy post about your scumminess towards CES/CDB first?

If you're town, that's being thorough and even-handed. That would be cover if you are scum--attempting to look thorough and even-handed.

How different do you feel that my play has been as compared to your own?

Off the top of my head, you've been focused on me since the start of the day, and my theory has been that as scum, you probably expected Mgm to vote me solidly today and therefore your only chance at a lynch today was to nail me. I've been more inclined to see you as scum, but there's no way I'd ever wrap up a six month game without taking a good long look at both possible scum, so I've also explored possibilities re: Patrick. That's the difference between us today, and the thing is, both you and Patrick were of one mind on me, so I found you both curious if not scummy for not being thorough. Any difference that comes to mind is colored by the fact that you've been pushing/voting an innocent all day, and more aggressively so than the other possible scum.

How can you accuse me of being opportunistic Re: Patrick when MGM's Patrick-vote has been the writing on the walls for so long? Would you expect GlorkScum to take literally weeks to make the kind of turn that you have suggested?

I don't know where you get "weeks" from--it was only a week ago that Mgm started zeroing in on Patrick. Before then, Glorkscum had every reason to believe I was its target today. Mgm appeared open to voting either Patrick or myself until Thursday July 12th at 1pm when he voted Patrick. If you're scum, you'd have three choices at that point: stick to your guns on MBL, look fishy by suddenly grilling Patrick, or slowly transition into a mild suspicion of Patrick. The next day (Friday) you asked for an outline of Mgm's suspicions of Patrick, and the next day (Saturday) you posted your first suspicions of Patrick. I will say, the smart play as scum would be not to rush that so much--it's weird either way because if you're town, I don't see you changing your mind that rapidly either, based on just about no new evidence.

After Mgm FOSed Patrick, hinting for the first time at a possible vote, you recklessly voted me that day with stated explanation that you had a meta, which when added to some weak arguments from D1/D2 made it time at last for you to vote. Given the timing, your posts last Sunday look for all the world like an attempt to sway Mgm back into line in suspicion of me, the "play" today.

You bantered with Mgm for a day, and this is when I posted my analysis of Fritz's D3. If you are scum, it appears you saw the intractability of Mgm's position, simultaneously saw I was open to seeing you as a potential confirmed innocent, and that's when your curiosity towards Patrick kicked in. Your vote seemed pretty firm last weekend, and while I'm glad to see your newfound flexibility if you're town, that's tempered by a natural suspicion of the malleability of the oft-certain Glork.

Do you see why I am miffed at your reaction to my most recent analysis?

Yes, if you are town you finally stepped out of the box and opened your mind to suspecting the actual scum, Patrick. You're unhappy that I jumped on you for what's actually a positive move in this game.

Problem is, I don't know if you're town. So while I'm pleased with your newfound openmindedness if you're town, I have to evaluate the action for any possible motive besides the altruistic one. And I suppose I should have been clearer about that--if you're town, bravo, if you're scum, your timing is suspect. Which leads to the next question:

Do you, right now, believe that I am seeking the "easy route" to victory? If so, what makes that route easier than any other?

This is WIFOM, but to an extent, yes. Once Mgm locked in on Patrick, your easiest victory would be getting me to vote Patrick as well. You could also try waiting things out for a no-lynch, in which case you could triangulate several ways for tomorrow. You could kill me and lynch Patrick with Mgm, or you could kill Mgm and try to lynch me with Patrick. I suppose the former looks like your easy win of the two at the moment, so lynch or no-lynch, establishing your suspicion of Patrick is now the way to go if you're scum.

As you muck through the depths of my play, do you really believe that surface suspicion, or are you willing to admit that you overstated yourself? While one interpretation may be that I was opportunistic, is that the most sensible, logical, or (most importantly)

likely

interpretation?

LOL, this entirely depends on whether you're town or scum! If you're scum, of course it was opportunistic. A little unsubtle, but then again you're the guy who's expressed certainty that I've been scum three times in other games and you've been wrong/scum every time. Subtlety isn't your schtick. As Glorkscum tried to get someone to hammer me D1, page 2 in Space Monkey :

Um... I fully embrace my "scumminess." I am starting off a game by behaving in a completely ridiculous, counterintuitive, non-productive manner. Welcome to Glork's mafia play. Would you like me to go cite the eight thousand million examples in which I've done so and been accused of being a scumbag for it?

and in Speedy KQ's:

Glork and Tamuz are on the (MBL) lynch. That's really all the explanation you need. We're in consensus now. It's a done deal, really.

Blatant "in-your-face" scumminess is part of your bag of tricks as scum. I will never assume that because you didn't do the subtle, safe thing that you are likely town.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, you have done SO many scummy things this game, and often specifically targeting me, that it's nigh-impossible for me to see you as town.

You are the guy who was inexplicably (correctly) certain about CDB's scumminess, inexplicably (correctly) certain about Zindaras's township, inexplicably certain (incorrectly) about Battle Mage's scumminess.

You are a Fritzler expert and you claim there was an obvious Fritz-innocent-tell on Thesp on the record, which you claim to have missed while voting to lynch Thesp.

You are the guy who pushed the outing of sv, the vig of IH, hammered Andrew, pushed the outing of Adele, and voted to lynch Thesp D2 even though you later claimed you didn't think he was scummiest.

You're the guy who voted CES aggressively out of the blocks the day after the CDB lynch, then the next day unvoted and said you thought he was a complete idiot but you had a meta that made you all the sudden think he wasn't scum.

After Zindy was modkilled and I voted CES, you're the guy who pulled a bizarro mano-a-mano on me, demanding that I either lynch you or get lynched myself that day, which in retrospect looks suspiciously like protection of a godfather.

vote: CES

MBL, I demand that if you go to lynch anybody today, it's me.

You're the guy who came after me today with the meta:

MBL's tendency as scum is to shy away from a big mislynch, and to join a wagon on scum as soon as possible once the scales have been tipped.

which looks remarkably similar to the tripe you tried to whip out on me in Speedy KQ's:

Either you're scum who knew something (and stayed off two bad lynches), or you're an incredibly insightful pro-town player. No offense to you or your play ability, but I'm obviously wagering my money on the former.

These are just some of the reasons why I have a ton of difficulty seeing you as town this game.

Why were you certain of CDB's scumminess D3?

Why did you challenge me mano-a-mano D4 when I voted CES, demanding I try to lynch you instead?

What's your explanation for using the same bogus argument on me (re: off-the-lynch) this game as you used in SpeedyKQ's as scum?

[MrBuddyLee]

I would like you to explain why exactly it is indicative of scum in this game in spite of the fact that playing with confidence/certainty has basically always been the way I've done things.

I am going to play some mild WIFOM and ask you to meta me fairly heavily: Based on your past experiences with and reads of Glorkscum, do you think I have a history of "appearing thorough and even-headed"? Is your opinion of this level of posting consistent with the way you have seen me in this game?

You're right to an extent. I know you have exhibited poor play in this manner as both town and scum. To some degree you do it to maintain viability on this site, and I sympathize. I'm trying to illustrate the dilemma I face, knowing full well that you're prone to this bad behavior regardless. Do I exonerate you for it this time only to be cackled at as you watch me drink my poisoned wine? If you use poor play as a tactic as town, the burden is upon you to dig out of the holes you bury yourself in. And whether you're scum or town, astute townies should rightfully scan that digging for insincerity. Personally, I think your play has been more reckless and inexplicable in this game than in others, and the natural assumption is that recklessness is proportional to scumminess.

I have to say, I literally honestly spit my juice out when I read this. Did you really just state that you're allowing OMGUS to significantly influence your opinion in a large decision at endgame? Here is what I got out of this: "You've been going after me really aggressively, and I'm town, so that makes you more likely to be scum."

I'd edit your premise to read "going after me

exclusively

". But like I said, Patrick's done the same, so one of you is semi-artful scum and the other is a narrowminded nabob. But the question you asked was to compare you and me, not you and Patrick, and you've been singleminded today compared to me, which is what I find suspect, regardless of the target, so it's not OMGUS. (Note my similar feelings about Mgm's singlemindedness.)

No, no, no, no. You're creating a circular argument.

Sure, but it's tough not to at endgame. You have to view every action as either genuine or faux-genuine, and the likelihood of each approaches 50-50. I agree I can try harder to mine for the gems of truth in the posts you guys make. I've currently been focused on the negative, probably because both of you have ill-placed suspicions.

[MrBuddyLee]

I don't think you sufficiently explained the mano-a-mano thing. You explained why you found my action suspect. You didn't explain why your supposed townish behavior, to try to force me into a me or you scenario, was warranted as opposed to simply attacking me and finding me suspect. It's a rare and notable occurrence when someone tries so overtly to get me to move my vote, and rarer that they try to get me to move it onto

them

, and rarer yet that the beneficiary of said tactic happens to be the mafia godfather.

My vote was the third on CES, with five to lynch.

It was obviously panic time for scum

--if CES got lynched there and then, the game was down to 7 players remaining and two confirmed innocents. AND Nightfall and MBL would have been viewed as townish for lynching CES, leaving only Patrick, Glork, Ether as likely scum.

You tried to foment Mgm's wagon on me, then not gaining traction, shifted to BM (Nightfall).

Patrick didn't place a vote for over three weeks, then moved to join you on BM (Nightfall).

Patrick defended Nightfall Feb 22nd, March 13th, March 17th, March 19th, then changed his tune April 4th.

I understood where Ether was going more on day 1, but the strong attack on Nightfall still seems strange.

I like Ether's case on Nightfall

Patrick, Ether didn't make any new arguments at all regarding Nightfall between March 17th and April 19th. What explains your shift in opinion?

Glork had Nightfall on his short pro-town list Feb 19th, found him slightly pro-town March 8th, found him the townier of Ether/Nightfall on March 16th after his PBPAs. April 5th unvoted CES, voted Ether. By April 20th, changed his tune:

"I like Ether's attack on Nightfall."

I'm guessing our last two scums are likely among {Zindaras, CES, Nightfall}.

Glork, same question to you, Ether did nothing notable at all between April 5th and April 20th. Why your change of tune?

For reference, May 10th is when Glork made his mano-a-mano play, possibly in protection of CES.

Also:

I've only seen Thesp behave that stubbornly as town once or twice before, and he was dead right. Thesp is an eerily accurate scumhunter, and knowing that he was locked onto CDB gave me much more confidence in my suspicions.

Thesp was on CES for all of April and May, yet you spent your April and May dinking around on Nightfall and me.

Why were you eager to trust Thesp on CDB but not CES?

[MrBuddyLee]

I don't need a prod. I'm here and listening, hoping the break will give me a fresh perspective on the game.

[MrBuddyLee]

Actually, I read Harry Potter and Storm of Swords, learned to bake pita bread, made hummus and channa masala, worked on firespinning, welded ears legs cheeks and tail to a giant roving bunny, and got addicted to Catan and Bomberman in addition to the ongoing Warcraft addiction. Amazingly, after all that I still reflect back and think you're the scum and Patrick's the misguided townie. I just don't think you smell like town this game--too much monkey business.

[MrBuddyLee]

Happy birthday, Patrick!

I don't think I can read this thread again without going batty. I've read your posts one last time, with a fresh perspective, and it almost felt like I was someone not involved in the game. That helped me pick up on some things I missed. I'll ask my questions in a post after this blurby observational post.

Day one, you got riled up about IH. You casually laid down two theories: 1) an Andrew+MBL scumpair and 2) Andrew's wagon was scum-laden. When it came down to the svwagon, you found her scummy but stayed off it cause IH was on it, it seems. After her claim, you hammered IH for forcing a claim based on a die roll. After his long posts, you felt better about him, but never retracted your call to vig him.

When IH turned up town, you immediately attacked Glork, saying he hadn't done anything you'd expect from pro-town Glork. You two bantered, and in your next analysis post you said "today he's got his act together" which seems to assume his township. You went for Adele and Mgm, saying Thesp was suspicious as well. "There's something not quite right about your play compared to times I've seen you as town." You asked me for my opinion of Mgm because I'd found him scummy D1 but changed my mind.

Interestingly, you asked Glork to explain why you were "scum with Adele" rather than just why you were scum. Odd thing to say if you're town in my opinion. And when Adele claims, you decided you no longer wanted to lynch Thesp.

Ether hit you on this Thesp contradiction:

No, seriously. You explicitly said here that Thesp was out of character, but your later statements have contradicted this. Please explain.

And you reply: "His play on day 1 was pretty usual for him."

You indicate offhandedly that CDB is probably scum while casting suspicion on Mgm and not voting CDB.

D4 you said Zindy's late D3 posts hinted he knew CDB would come up goon. You found Glork, Thesp and I likely town and Mgm a likely godfather. When asked if you thought Mgm could be scum with CDB after the blatant protection D3, you said yes, absolutely.

Again, you ask me for my opinion on a player I'm voting--this time it's CES. You ask if I have a meta on him about retardness = scumminess. You said my defense of Nightfall meant we likely weren't scum together, you tried to push me off CES and onto Zindaras.

Your position on Zindaras made me feel more comfortable about you because it paralleled mine and I didn't think that'd be easy to fake. I figured scum would posture more about Zindy, like Glork did.

After Zindy was modkilled "Glork's uncertainty on it seemed genuine enough to me"

Pretty much no analysis of Glork content. "If he's scum he's doing better than other times I've seen him."

"The only people so far who have really "gotten results" would be Glork and Thesp." Hmm.

I read the game one last time to check your attitude towards me and see if your suspicions were proportional the entire game, because as you know scum have difficulty remaining consistent with their phony suspicions.

"MBL: Has made some useful observations/analysis."
You agreed and disagreed with several observations of mine D1 D2, particularly when I attecked you, but never found any comments scummy:
"Not really an attack in the sense of find you scummy. But I don't agree with alot of your observations today."
"I think Glork, Thesp and MBL are likely town which is at least a comforting thought."
"It doesn't seem a stretch for MBL to think Glork may have been a cop."
For the first time, you found me possibly scummy for defending Nightfall and attacking Ether.
"I can see more room for MBL to be scum than either Glork or Thesp, but I still lean town."
"I could see Nightfall/MBL as scum jumping on CES. Could see it as a counter to a Zindaras wagon."
"MBL, it's strange that you are voting CES and not Zindaras, since Zindaras seems to be your top suspect percentage wise."
"I can see Thesp who has expressed a strong desire to see CES dead, MBL who has been suspicious of him for a while now, CTD who has him moderately high on his LoS." this is expressed in a way that seems to assume my township.
"I don't see how the CTD nightkill incriminates MBL especially."
"Out of the people alive, I preferred and still prefer MBL's stances towards all those things. (D1)"
"there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early?"
====================================================================
TODAY:

MBL's early comments in his summary posts about CES are fairly noncommital. CES more active and chirpy than usual, and focussing on an Andrew lynch. This CES meta thing about being more active as scum has been brought up a few times by several people. Glork and Mgm, can you remind me if this is true? Both of you have more experience with CES than me.

Not too much on CES from MBL first 3 days, gets on him day 4, stated reason is a slipup which wasn't really a slipup. Keeps his vote on CES for a long time. Still slightly curious of his post 78 in that he keeps his vote on CES when Zindaras is apparently his clear top suspect at 40% likely to be scum compared to the 30% of CES. Then moves onto Zindaras a few posts later, then back onto CES with the Zindie modkill. Overall, some pressure on CES day 4, varying in strength though.

Glork is also attacking CES on and off throughout the game. Some small suspicions of CES day 2 but also a "reasonably protown" assessment. Any chance you could articulate how CES's play looked protown?

Jumps around on CES in his steam of consciousness posts, settles on CES as possible scum.

He's certainly poking at CES on day 4, demanding more content from him, though mostly without success. CES is now high on his LoS. Later eases off due to his meta on CES and goes after others. I think I'm starting to just summarise stuff now so I'll say just say that the interactions between Glork and CES seem fairly genuine. I suppose it's possible though that he was nudging/nutkicking him as I suggested MBL might have been to CDB.

This is a pretty half-assed analysis of the most important issue in the game. It reads to me like you started with your conclusion and worked backwards. I reread both Glork's and my interactions with CES and I think if anything his looks like distancing, avoidance, protection of a GF and suspect behavior. I don't see how you could reasonably construe my attacks and votes for CES as distancing.

And then you try to sway Mgm with some cocked-up argument about my third vote on CES, bizarrely asking Mgm about it five times, which is kind of out of character for you:

And it's been pointed out that his quick vote for CES may have been at attempt to do exactly that.

You've said that if MBL/CES is the pairing, MBL would have preferred to sacrifice himself. So what's your take on MBL's quick third vote for CES? "

You said that MBL if scum would attempt to sacrifice himself.

What do you think of his quick third vote on CES?

It seems you weren't paying attention to the game. Thesp voted CES first. Then Glork voted CES second. Then MBL put a quick third vote on CES with no comment. Did you miss this?

You keep talking about, "MBL would have sacrificed himself yesterday if he was scum." What would you expect him to do exactly? "Hey guys I'm scum lynch me now plzkthxbai". And it's been pointed out that his quick vote for CES may have been at attempt to do exactly that, whilst putting distance between himself and CES.

Weird.

And finally, a little revisionist history:

"If I was scum with CDB, I'd definitely have wanted to be on his lynchwagon, maybe even earlier than I was. MBL's switch over was the one bothering me the most actually."

No, you found me likely protown at the time. Now you've changed your tune.

[MrBuddyLee]

1) Can you please tell me the names of two completed games in which you were scum? I was unable to find any when I went looking.

2) Please explain your thought process when you changed your mind from Thesp is scum to Thesp shouldn't be hammered. Explain what Ether addressed (see previous post) about your contradiction about Thesp's typical/atypical play.

3) How did you find me "likely town" D4 after the CDB lynch if my behavior towards him was "scumbuddyish" as you claim to believe now?

4) "The only people so far who have really "gotten results" would be Glork and Thesp." Please explain your statement, made while deciding to lynch CES, which looks suspiciously like a suckup (not to mention false).

5) You gave Glork a pass since early D2 and said "If he's scum he's doing better than other times I've seen him." Well, if you're town then he's scum, so this is about the most relevant observation I can find in this game. Please detail what you saw about him that was obvious scum in other games that you don't see in this one.

6)

My gut says Mgm is trying to ease his way onto busing CES after a whole game of defending him. I caught a similar vibe from how he acted around CDB to how he is acting now.

Please elaborate on this.

7) Why the fivefold harping at Mgm about my vote for CES (see prev post), which I clearly explained? If you were really curious about my alignment, why didn't you ask ME about the vote?

8 ) You never expressed a single suspicion of me until D4, when you made a RAPID and inexplicable shift. You started the day with me on your 3 person protown list (Glork, MBL, Thesp), then within a post or two you sheeped onto Glork's Nightfall+MBL rant. Glork's bluster went nowhere, and then you never expressed suspicion again until today.

Not once during the lynch of CES did you express a negative thought about me, but today you came straight out of the gate assuming wrongly that I was scum and Glork was town. You claim to have assessed me as town all game. Yet today your behavior reads like near-certainty in the opposite direction. (token comments aside) I would expect town-Patrick to have his faith in his judgment shaken and to start today from square one, but that's not what happened. You chose to stick with your pre-existing "logic" regarding Glork but discarded your MBL logic and rebuilt me as someone who'd acted scummy over the first several days.

a) Please explain to me how you made your sudden shift D4, and

b) how you've approached this day and reached an incorrect conclusion so rapidly.

9 ) Finally, please explain your scumhunting record this game. If you're town, the scum trio is {Glork, CES, CDB}. You poked at Glork for about a third of a D2 before deciding to trust him unfailingly for the rest of the game. You ignored CES, claiming to not be able to read him, calling him "annoying and spammy" and your first vote on him was yesterday's hammer. You called CDB a lurker and ignored him until four people slapped him over the head with a fish, then you placed your first vote on him late.

You questioned Glork briefly, and didn't question CES and CDB at all. Despite not helping find scum, you ended up on both of their wagons. Explain.

[MrBuddyLee]

5) You gave Glork a pass since early D2 and said "If he's scum he's doing better than other times I've seen him." Well, if you're town then he's scum, so this is about the most relevant observation I can find in this game. Please detail what you saw about him that was obvious scum in other games that you don't see in this one.

You continuously misuse the phrase "free pass". You seem to be under the illusion that just because someone hasn't attacked someone much, that means that they haven't been watching them and discerning their alignment. I haven't seen stuff in other games where he was scum that scream "obvious scum". I do think his entire manner is consistent with how I've seen him play as town, as well as his tone. After CDB turned up scum, I was more confident in Glork being town for turning the tide against CDB when he could have easily left him alone and let Thesp be the only pusher, looking like a weirdo. You've made much of his supposed certainty and "bluster" on various people, but I don't see how it's particularly different to how he plays normally. For example you went on for ages about how Zindaras gave us pretty much zero material yet Glork changed his mind on him from thinking he was scum to thinking he was town. I thought it was clear he'd switched mainly because of the attitudes towards Zindaras from certain people (mainly you), and whilst I didn't agree with his specific assessment, it was correct.

You totally dodged this question, Patrick. Please explain to me more specifically how you've managed to differentiate what you see as town Glork in this game from what you've seen as scum Glork in other games. Being "correct" on a player or two is not indicative of alignment... or anything town can use to separate scum from town. I need to know if your reasons for confidence in Glork's alignment are

fake

or

wrong

--they have to be one or the other.

[MrBuddyLee]

I guess what you're saying is that you don't have scum tells for Glork, you only have town tells, and in the absence of those he's more likely to be scum. That confused me til your latest clarification.

I read your games as scum and you come across differently than you do in this game. Moreso in the small games, in which you came across as more manipulative and less genuine. In Ben and Jerry you started a little stinky and sounded really townish by the end. If you're scum this game, you've done a fine job of continuing to improve your play.

My dilemma is that the things I find scummiest about Glork, he's just about as likely to do as town:

* Attack me for shoddy reasons.
* Find random people protown or scum with way too much certainty, typically with the same accuracy as if he'd flipped a coin.
* Press wagons D1/D2 of people who end up dead town.
* Base attacks on another player's "bad logic" when that player's actually operating on a combination of gut+logic.
* Change his opinion of people on a dime, not just D1/D2 but deeper into the game as well, seemingly not based on anything in thread.

His strategy is designed to increase his survival rate as both town and scum, because if he plays like rational Glork he gets investigated as scum and NKed as town. He got away with playing like a dink in Space Monkey as mafia, and his D1/D2 play in this game looks like it was intended to cull the flock and keep heat off the godfather. (Willing to lynch sv, Andrew, Adele, Mgm, Thesp, all town) In Space Monkey he paid lip service to suspecting Nightson and CES until he had to do the deed, much like he did on CES this game. Not particularly like he did on CDB this game though. But actually, after I came down with positivity on CDB Glork had no room to hop off, so it's possible he was planning to hop on and off until I did that.

His play since then has been somewhat more townish, but he did push the Nightfall mislynch ("95% sure") and tried to push mine (mano a mano). I'll feel bad if he turns up town, but less so than if I lynch you as town and let him get away with playing the crappier game. My gut tells me Glork is the scumbag, but I can't find a smoking gun to convince myself for sure.

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm, don't you find it odd that Glork and Patrick both seem to trust each other so much considering the way each has played? Obviously they're not both scum for it, but one is displaying terrible judgment while the other is scum who's picked me as the easiest lynch to ride to victory.

Do you get a sense of which is which, based on their stated reasoning for trusting each other?

I guess I should ask the same of Patrick and Glork--what do you think of the other guy's reasoning for trusting you?

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, when Patrick nudged you away from CES onto Zindaras, why exactly did you change your vote?

I actually didn't. The nudge happened on April 30th, 4 days before deadline. The vote count looked like this:

Vote Count

Nightfall: 3 (Ether GlorkCES)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 2 (Nightfall MBL)
Zindaras: 2 (Patrick Thesp )
MrBuddyLee: (Mgm)
Not voting: Zindaras

I stuck on CES to deadline, at which point the vote count looked like this:

"New Page" Vote Count

Nightfall: 4 (Ether Glork CES Patrick)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 3 (Nightfall MBL Thesp)
MrBuddyLee: 1 (Mgm)
Not voting: Zindaras

Looking for

5

votes for a lynch!

21 hours, 18 minutes until deadline!

Note they just needed one more vote on Nightfall...
Then the deadline got extended:

Deadline extended by majority request!

New Deadline:

Monday 21st May 5pm BST!

Two hours later I switched to Zindaras because he'd done absolutely nothing in the previous month and a half and he clearly needed to be pressured. It would be inexcusable to let scum survive that kind of behavior, so we needed him on the record immediately. You can't catch scum if you don't make them talk. I didn't make the switch before deadline because the odds of getting Zindy to talk in the few days before deadline were slim, and I'd rather have lynched CES.

[MrBuddyLee]

If Glork is scum, here's how he and his scumteam played.

He goofed off D1, putting sv at risk with a random vote and stating he was willing to lynch her, but giving no reasons for his suspicions. When criticized by Zindy for it, he replied,

Zindie. If anybody knows how absurd I can behave, it's you.

During her run-up, he said:

I don't think AndrewS is particularly scummy.

But three days later he voted to lynch Andrew and told sv to vig IH. He had to know his behavior would attract attention and a possible investigation. His vote and FOS of CES were so he could later claim he didn't ignore CES. He didn't mention CDB D1, except to FOS CDB for expressing suspicion of Glork:

I'm trying to think who Glork reminds me of in this game (I don't think it's Glork). Whoever he's behaving like I don't think he's being particularly helpful.

The only three people CDB commented on D1 were Glork, CES and Andrew, which would be his two scumpartners and the lynchee, terribly sloppy distancing.

CES joked with Glrok and FOSed sv, Patrick, Glork, CDB and IH.

CDB got on Andrew and stayed all day. CES jumped on Andrew late, Glork hammered, so all three were on the lynch.

[MrBuddyLee]

D2, CES voted Glork. CDB agrees that Glork is scummy and his only two interactions are with Glork, and he waits two weeks before voting Thesp instead.

Glork drew connections between CES-Thesp, and spent a disproportionate amount of energy trying to connect people to CDB. Another Glork FOS of CES, CDB is "slightlybad". Glork pushes Mgm, Adele, then Thesp for the lynch.

Two weeks before deadline, vote is 2-2-2 with CES on Glork, CES switches to Thesp with stated reason "bandwagoning", lost interest in Glork and found Thesp scum for the rest of the game at this point. CDB and CES were 1-2 on Thesp with Glork 5th. Again, all three on the wagon.

[MrBuddyLee]

D3, CDB again votes Thesp out of the blocks and sloppily distances from Glork. CES votes Thesp out of the blocks, pays some attention to Glork. Clearly the overnight plan by scum was to attack Thesp.

Glork starts out D3 suspecting Thesp, and did 2/3 of his reread PBPA before realizing Fritz was a cop. You can see his mind spinning in his next few posts as he tries to figure out what to do now that Thesp is cop-innocent. He votes Ether, FOSes Zindy, both for lurking, and tells CES to nightkill himself. Distancing from CDB and CES kicks into high gear, and Zindaras/Nightfall/Ether become his additional suspicions.

Glork follows the cop's innocent onto CDB, establishing cred. CES keeps hammering at Thesp and Glork, unaware.

After CDB claims, CES takes the opposite tack from Glork and and suddenly switches Glork to his pro-town list but keeps heat on Thesp. The two of them help bury CDB.

[MrBuddyLee]

D4: Glork starts out his first post of the day claiming he was investigated by Fritz.

With only one scumpartner remaining, Glork attacks CES stridently and votes him. He urges Thesp and MBL to turn our FOSes of CES into votes, then 45 minutes later suddenly switches direction and says he has cold feet on CES and switches to Ether.

This is the most bizarre stretch in the game:

Unvote, Vote: Nightfall

Unvote, Vote: Nightfall

Patrick, would you rather lynch Nightfall or CES? I'd move to CES before the deadline.

Cogito Ergo Sum: 3 (Nightfall Thesp MBL )
Nightfall: 2 (Ether CES )

Unvote, Vote: MBL

Unvote, Vote: MBL

unvote

Unvote though, as Glrok has done the same.

vote: Nightfall

Glrok, Patrick, vote for Nighfall, please.

May 21st vote: Nightfall

CES sheeped all over Glork, Glork claimed to be willing to lynch CES, but instead Glork picked me instead of CES and at the end Glork followed CES onto Nightfall. Not once in this stretch did Glork express concern about CES matching his every move.

Glork expresses 61 suspicions of Zindaras D3-D4, then this:

I've wavered on Zindaras a lot lately

A review of Glork's previous posts shows no wavering at all. He's all over Zindaras, his previous two evaluative posts on Zindy being:

I could still see Zindie/CES, Nightfall/CES, or Nightfall/Zindie

I think we should lynch Nightfall and ask for an overnight modkill on Zindaras. Who's with me? <.<

There are no posts by Zindaras--absolutely nothing from him to give Glork any reason to change his mind like this. It looks like Glork, smelling inevitable lynch/modkill, positioned himself to smell like a rose afterwards.

After modkill scum needs two mislynches to win, and Nightfall+MBL/Ether/Mgm looks promising, especially if they can keep the godfather alive. By June 2nd, Glork is "95% positive" Nightfall is scum. CES helped drive the lynch home.

[MrBuddyLee]

Start of D5, scum needs a mislynch to win.

CES votes MBL out of the blocks, keeping up the "if I follow Glork blindly they'll never suspect we're scum together it's too obvious" plan, and stays on me all day.

Glork makes a radical and unexplained shift from MBL is scum to CES+Mgm are the scumpair without rereading the thread:

I think that MBL is my top suspect, but at this point, I really have no idea what the hell I'm doing.

I'm considering MBL+Patrick.

CES is by far the best play for the day.

I work all weekend, and on Monday/Tuesday (I think). I'll get to a reread on Wed. (June 13th).

And how sure are you about Patrick, Glrok? Because if he's town, then MBL has to be Thesp's Goon.

Actually, CES, I'm leaning slightly towards you/MGM at this moment.

The change from MBL #1 suspect to CES #1 Mgm #2 in 24 hours

with no reread

is stunning.

MBL+Thesp were leaning CES and Patrick was expressing doubts about MBL being scum, so this looks like plan B: if we can't get a quick MBL lynch, be sure to distance from each other.

I am beginning (a reread) now, but make no promises to finish today.

Okay, initial thoughts: I may be liking where this MGM/CES wagon goes.

Possible MBL/CDB connection noted.

Post 261 by MBL bothers me.

286 by MBL looks like fuuuuuel for the fire.

FoS w/possible ItV: CES

Post 422 looks bad for both Thesp and CES (worse for Thesp, by a small margin

vote: CES

:nothelpful:

Hypocrite.

If you want to metagame, you can't just look at one game in which I was scum.

Ugh.

Unvote, FoS: CES

until everyone has had a chance to talk/respond. You people piss me off.

So in the span of an hour, Glork started his reread, found Mgm, MBL, CES and Thesp suspicious, and decided to vote CES, then unvoted 20 minutes after a conversation between himself and CES.


When Glork finally votes, he says "Let's see if we're totally boned or not." I wanted to see if he really meant this, so I threw down my vote, which I was prepared to drop anyway, with no explanation. And Glork jumped at the opportunity to unvote CES, indicating he wasn't truly committed. His explanation:

If Patrick or MgM had been up and had been scum with MBL, the game could have ended right there. I still fear that MBL's vote was designed to allow a scumbuddy to drop a quicklynch.

Which is totally bogus reasoning for unvoting, because that "quicklynch" by Patrick+MBL, Patrick+Mgm or Mgm+MBL could have happened overnight anyway once Glork dropped the vote and went to bed. If Glork was town, his vote had already assumed that risk.

why have you not put your vote back on CES, MBL?

I'm leaning about 55% towards voting CES.

I still think CES is scum.... I think.

I think it's about time to throw down.

CES dies as scumfather. Glork isn't on the wagon.

[MrBuddyLee]

D6 Glork has picked his target for the day and clearly done his planning overnight. He explains his push to lynch me as a metagame he's picked up on, which proves to be totally invalid. He votes me five days in. Then another amazing shift:

vote: Patrick

Needless to say, Mgm, I've got my heart set on lynching MBL right now.

Glork has seemed significantly more scummy this game, but there's probably a 60% chance he's been investigated.

unvote.

I don't know who I want to lynch anymore.

So at 6am Glork's heart is set on voting MBL. At the first sign that there's a chance at a three vote consensus on Patrick, and only twelve hours later, Glork's gone from "heart set" to "don't know".

Now he's back on me.

[MrBuddyLee]

The inconsistency of Glork's suspicion is too great, just about every day. No one else in this game has ridden this kind of rollercoaster.

After three or four or six months, a townie gets a strong sense of who's scum and who's not. You don't see radical shifts in opinion except at the starts of days when there are two huge pieces of information to work with--alignment of lynchee plus nightkill. Scum, however, know EVERYTHING from day one, and they invent suspicions after a week, a month, three months, six months. They generally try to keep their suspicions consistent to make them appear townish, but it's hard because they don't HAVE suspicions and it's to their benefit to ignore some suspicious people like they ignored CES for much of the game.

One solution to this problem is to change suspicions like mad as both town and scum in an attempt to disguise scummy behavior when scum. That doesn't change the fact that inconsistency is a scumtell. I think Glork's inconsistency goes beyond what I'd expect if he were town, and the explanation is that he's scum. Add that to his terrible "results", and I think he is our final scumbag despite the fact that means Fritzler inexplicably didn't hint at his cop result from N2. I just can't read Glork's behavior as town, and Patrick has come across as more consistent and genuine. I am very close to voting at this point.

I'd like to hear both Patrick's and Mgm's takes on my reasoning here.

[MrBuddyLee]

Thesp is voting CDB, CDB is voting Thesp.
Glork votes Zindaras, Fritz tells us we're retarded.
Glork votes Ether, Fritz does not follow.

Ohhh. That makes more sense.

Please move your vote off of Thesp and put it somewhere useful.

:knowstuff: [/Fritz]

glork is so icey

who do you want to lynch?

ether the 30 year old creepy guy?

Ether is a good bet for now. Might switch to CDB or maybe Zindaras later.

Fritzler posts with no vote.

Unvote Ether, Vote: ChannelDelibird.

unvote, vote: CDB

most likely possibilities:
* Fritz investigated Thesp N1, Glork N2 and asks Glork who he wants to lynch to indicate the innocent result on Glork
* Fritz is using you as cop cover after you blow his cover. You indicate you know Fritz is the cop with an innocent on Thesp ("move your vote off Thesp/knowstuff/Fritz") too obviously for his comfort and Fritz decides to pretend you're the cop and follow you so his cover's not blown. He follows it up later with:

dude im sure one of the people that wants to lynch cdb is the real power role i don't know which htough, and ifeel comfortable killing him

Pointing squarely at you.

Fritz didn't follow you onto Zindaras or Ether to indicate trust. But he did follow you onto CDB. It's possible he just liked the CDB vote cause Thesp was already there, and it's possible but less likely that he had a guilty on CDB.

I still think it's significantly possible he investigated you. If I was 90% sure of that fact I'd vote Patrick in a heartbeat. But based on an objective read of Fritz's one meaningful post, I'm not willing to bank the game on one possible interpretation of it.

[MrBuddyLee]

Sorry, but whether it's 40% or 60% or 50% at this point, it's just not at all certain that Fritz investigated you. I'm taking many considerations into account when making my decision, and that's just one of them. Voting records, misstatements, inconsistencies, nightkill choices, the opinions of the deceased, and metagaming--they all factor in.

The fact that you're trying to ride my genuine uncertainty on the issue to a mislynch is just one more thing to pile on the heap of "unreasonable things Glork probably wouldn't have done if he were town."

ps. I guess you'd rather change the subject to cop confirmations than address the analysis posts to which I just gave my Saturday.