Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Patrick]

Mgm, you got anything to say about your "MBL would never have killed Thesp" theory now that it's been shown to be WIFOM? Because if you're still fixated on me, that needs to be solved sooner or later.

[Mgm]

Even if he was happy to kill Thesp, I don't believe he would've been first to follow Thesp and wagon his own GF (creating two confirmed innocents in the process - only one of which he could kill). If he sacrificed himself suspicions against CES would've eased quite a bit considering pairing ideas and he would've left Thesp and Me both on the suspect lists meaning we would've had at least one more suspect in the mix today.

You can of course double-guess anything, but I'd rather refer to both our ideas as theories rather than discrediting one or the other as WIFOM (and I'll be looking that up, because it doesn't look like correct use of the term).

[Mgm]

Oh yeah.

Vote: Patrick

[MrBuddyLee]

I just went looking for Fritz's cop info--I find it difficult to believe he wouldn't leave us ANYTHING to go on, especially considering the day ended at deadline so he wasn't surprised by the end of day.

N1, he either got a guilty on Adele or innocent on Thesp (and at this point we know it couldn't have been the former):

feb 14th-end of D1
feb 19:
I'm more likely to trust thesp than adele.
CONFIRM VOTE: ADELE
also, you're scum
If this was face to face mafia Glork and I would be lost in each other's eyes
thesp, whose the play?
:no: (didnt inv glork n1)
guys thesp is such a bad lynch right now
anyone want to run up adele so thesp isn't lynched?

And I can interpret his only significant contribution D3 in one of three ways:

march 14th-end of D2
march 15th
yes, cuz he's (Thesp) not scum and you guys are retarded
following ":knowstuff:[/Fritz]"
march 17th
glork is so icey
who do you want to lynch?

1) He has an innocent on Glork from N2
2) He thinks Glork's "knowstuff" means Glork's a cop and he wants to follow Glork. Since this is impossible once Adele's dead, perhaps he's trying to help make Glork look like the cop.
3) Fritz never left us a clue to his 2nd investigation.

In SpeedyKQ's NY game, Glork killed Fritz N3. Fritz investigated raj N1, BJ N2.

"RAJ isn't scum guys. "
"pretty sure bj is town so...."

Kingmaker:
I don't think n lich is that scummy.
If anything I'd say n lich is a GG
I don't think n-lich should be nailed.
that's cuz n lich and me are pro town
I'LL SAY IT AGAIN, NEIGHT FRITZ NOR N LICH IS THE PLAY
What else have I done? Said n lich isn't the play? cuz he's not.
IM A COP THAT INVESTEGATED N LICH
(LOL)

So I'd venture that it's unlike Fritz to fail to hint at his result. Obviously Glork keys into Fritzcop, but he's already admitted to spotting it before Fritz was killed so that's moot.

Glork, have you ever seen Fritz fail to hint at his cop result?

[Patrick]

Even if he was happy to kill Thesp, I don't believe he would've been first to follow Thesp and wagon his own GF (creating two confirmed innocents in the process - only one of which he could kill). If he sacrificed himself suspicions against CES would've eased quite a bit considering pairing ideas and he would've left Thesp and Me both on the suspect lists meaning we would've had at least one more suspect in the mix today.

You keep talking about, "MBL would have sacrificed himself yesterday if he was scum." What would you expect him to do exactly? "Hey guys I'm scum lynch me now plzkthxbai". And it's been pointed out that his quick vote for CES may have been at attempt to do exactly that, whilst putting distance between himself and CES.

You can of course double-guess anything, but I'd rather refer to both our ideas as theories rather than discrediting one or the other as WIFOM (and I'll be looking that up, because it doesn't look like correct use of the term).

Your theory is complete and utter WIFOM. I haven't made anything out of the nightkill; I don't think it points strongly in one direction, and I'm unwilling to put so much weight on a nightkill as you seem to be.

Oh yeah. Vote: Patrick

When people blow holes in your logic, it would be better if you addressed it rather than carrying on as if it works just fine. Being confirmed innocent does not give you the right to be lazy, or use sloppy logic, especially in this situation.

[Glork]

Glork, have you ever seen Fritz fail to hint at his cop result?

No, I have never seen him fail to hint. That's why I'm so certain that he investigated me -- as far as I could tell, he didn't say anything indicative of him being definitely sure that any one else was pro-town; and he

certainly

didn't get a guilty result, or he'd have just voted them outright.



MGM, hypothetical situation:
Suppose the votes stand as they are, and MBL/Patrick vote each other, and we are forced into a no-lynch.
Suppose I am killed overnight.
Would you second-guess yourself out of voting Patrick, too, for not killing the guy who was dead-set on him being scum?

[Glork]

See V/LA.

[MrBuddyLee]

Suppose I am killed overnight.
Would you second-guess yourself out of voting Patrick, too, for not killing the guy who was dead-set on him being scum?

LOL MGM don't answer that! Whether or not Glork is scum asking this question, this would prep scum for tonight's choice... sheesh.

[Mgm]

If they need an answer to that question to make a choice, the scum are moronic.

[Patrick]

I don't see the point in no lynching anyway. If scum choose, they can no kill and we're in the same situation the next day. Or scum can kill someone if they think it works to their advantage.

[Glork]

Hypothetical, people. The point is to illustrate that letting a WIFOMy nightkill action rule your suspicions is a bad, bad idea.

[Mgm]

From the wiki regarding WIFOM: 'In such games one often may try to use what he knows of his opponent to make a better choice. However, in some situations this leads to recursive reasoning: "But that's just what he wants me to think, so I'll do the opposite. But maybe that's what he wants me to think, so I'll not do the opposite. But maybe that's what he wants me to think..."'

I don't see a way to avoid recursive reasoning.We are all paranoid and the scum obviously prepared some story to explain their actions. There are very few exact facts to base reasoning off in mafia.

1) I'm innocent. I can't be the GF anymore.
2) Glork appears to have been investigated by Fritz.
3) We have two suspects left.

That is all the certainties right there.

[Glork]

Could you outline point-by-point why you think Patrick instead of MBL is scum?

Could you also outline point-by-point why you think MBL would necessarily have killed you instead of Thesp (as that seems to be one of your major points)?

[Mgm]

*sigh*

[Patrick]

Hypothetical, people.

The point is to illustrate that letting a WIFOMy nightkill action rule your suspicions is a bad, bad idea

.

[Patrick]

*sigh*

Please answer his questions when you have the time. We're at all or nothing here.

Also, if it doesn't come into your answers to those, please address the point in the first paragraph of post 2004. You've said that if MBL/CES is the pairing, MBL would have preferred to sacrifice himself. So what's your take on MBL's quick third vote for CES?

As for recursive reasoning, it can be avoided. Adele also made the mistake ages ago in this game of applying WIFOM wrongly. ChannelDelibird also did it and got ripped to shreds by Thesp. Looking at nightkills is usually a risky way of finding scum. I guarantee you if you look at a bunch of games here, you will not see nightkill WIFOM being heavily used in looking for scum. In this specific case, as far as I can see, both Thesp and Mgm had MBL as their top suspect out of the three remaining. Both could conseivably have changed their minds. The difference is that Thesp is the better player, thus more likely to find the truth, especially with his form in this game. That seems to me the most obvious explanation for why he died.

[Mgm]

I did answer his questions. Each time I said something I outlined my train of thought along the way. There's no point in repeating what I said, it doesn't take too long to read what I posted earlier today.
----
He couldn't possibly have known I would change my mind today. Whatever gave you the idea? I was acting like a rabid hound hellbent on killing him for 2 or 3 days straight. If you seriously think you can convince someone like that to change their opinion, I'd love to know how you would handle that.

As for Thesp being the better player. That's just your opinion. He may have called out more scum in this game, but I have experience on my side at least when it comes to registration time on mafiascum and I played several months on the GL before that. I also nailed plenty of scum in other games (including DP), won a game as SK and I'm pretty sure the times I've been killed night one was all that random. I'd say we're pretty evenly matched actually.

The fact you consider Thesp a better player than me is another reason to keep that vote where it is. If you are in fact the one doing the night killing you want to keep the lesser threat (me) or remove the most dangerous of the two -- in your opinion Thesp.

Yes, recursive reasoning can be avoided, but going with your explanation of events isn't neccessarily the way to resolve that.

Without knowing if I would change my mind today, the best play for MBL would be to maximize his chances of survival. Who would you kill? The player who has his teeth in there and isn't changing his mind or the one that is reasoning and open to change? MBL could have been playing a gambit, but why bother if that is potentially suicide while the other way can save your life?

[Patrick]

I did answer his questions. Each time I said something I outlined my train of thought along the way. There's no point in repeating what I said, it doesn't take too long to read what I posted earlier today.

No, you've made some points and they've been rebutted. They didn't just stand untouched.

The fact you consider Thesp a better player than me is another reason to keep that vote where it is. If you are in fact the one doing the night killing you want to keep the lesser threat (me) or remove the most dangerous of the two -- in your opinion Thesp.

Ok, I'll give you this, I haven't done a survey of your other games. But based on this game -- Thesp has been much better than you. He caught two scumbags. You stubbornly defended both dead scumbags. If your logic in this game is anything to judge your play strength on, then Thesp is a better player than you, sorry. Let's ask both other guys here who they think is the better player. When they both say Thesp, you can eliminate entirely that reason/excuse to keep your vote on me.

He couldn't possibly have known I would change my mind today. Whatever gave you the idea? I was acting like a rabid hound hellbent on killing him for 2 or 3 days straight. If you seriously think you can convince someone like that to change their opinion, I'd love to know how you would handle that.

I repeat, both you and Thesp had MBL as their top suspect. Both could conseivably have changed their minds. And I don't think I need to point out that Thesp can be an incredibly stubborn player as well.

Yes, recursive reasoning can be avoided, but going with your explanation of events isn't neccessarily the way to resolve that.

If you are as experienced as you claim, then you must surely know that basing big decisions off nightkills is rarely used or encouraged because of how risky it is.

[Mgm]

Glork, MBL SAY SOMETHING! I'm tired of listening to Patrick's whining.

[Glork]

So your

only

reasoning is based on the nightkill last night?

What in

Patrick's gameplay

have you seen to convince you that he is scum?





Needless to say, Mgm, I've got my heart set on lynching MBL right now. If you think Patrick is scum with the certainty you bring up, I'd suggest convincing me that he's scum. :/

[Mgm]

No, my reasoning is also based on the fact that MBL did nothing what I would've expected a scumbag to do yesterday, which by extension leaves Patrick as the only possibly scum.

[Patrick]

Glork, MBL SAY SOMETHING! I'm tired of listening to Patrick's whining.

This is stupid. We're playing a game of mafia, and I'm not whining, I'm rebutting your points and asking questions. You are just neatly avoiding answering stuff, and that has to stop.

No, my reasoning is also based on the fact that MBL did nothing what I would've expected a scumbag to do yesterday, which by extension leaves Patrick as the only possibly scum.

You said that MBL if scum would attempt to sacrifice himself.

What do you think of his quick third vote on CES?

Also, what did I do yesterday that you would expect from scum?

[MrBuddyLee]

Still trying to decide between Glork and Patrick. Glork has seemed significantly more scummy this game, but there's probably a 60% chance he's been investigated. I've never seen Patrick as scum for comparison, but he sounds consistently reasonable this game, just hasn't gotten results. I also recall Patrick getting angry at one point and it read very pro-town, but I'd have to see if he's capable of feigning indignance effectively as scum. I'm going to read some games where Patrick was scum and see what I can learn, I guess, because the way Glork has played, I just can't bring myself to vote Patrick over him right now.

[Mgm]

Glork, MBL SAY SOMETHING! I'm tired of listening to Patrick's whining.

This is stupid. We're playing a game of mafia, and I'm not whining, I'm rebutting your points and asking questions. You are just neatly avoiding answering stuff, and that has to stop.

And you are trying to rebut absolutely everything I say, even the reasonable bits and pieces, which is not what you did previously in the game. (The admit to scummy stuff I talked about earlier)

No, my reasoning is also based on the fact that MBL did nothing what I would've expected a scumbag to do yesterday, which by extension leaves Patrick as the only possibly scum.

You said that MBL if scum would attempt to sacrifice himself.

What do you think of his quick third vote on CES?

Also, what did I do yesterday that you would expect from scum?

His vote wasn't the third. It was the second. And I find that second vote, decidedly non-scummy. I would've expected him to wait things out a little longer at least. I'm going to reread the answers to my questions - I meant to do that for a while now. Whoever stalled and answered later on probably parroted the earlier answers because they knew CES was done for. If that last answerer (apart from Thesp) is MBL, there's a smidge of an idea he might be the last scum, if it's you...

[Mgm]

Patrick, why hasn't CES been lynched sooner?

... because a majority has always chosen to lynch someone else? I suppose several people, including me, have somewhat

ignored

him because he always plays useless. Many cop out of trying to read him.

<snip>

Patrick hasn't been on any of the remaining players since Adele claimed. When I reread Patrick I got the sense that I didn't disagree with him often, and when I did, he was very reasonable about it. I feel placated, no offense Patrick

I can try and cause more offence in future if desired.

It's true that I've approached CES and MgM in different ways. You can't approach every player in the same way. When trying to read Fritz for example, much of the read was based on very little, because there is so little to work with. Mgm has used a wide variety of bad logic in this game, and has stayed on certain people for far too long. Obvious way to expose his thought processes is to ask him questions, and disect the bad logic and force him to justify stuff. He's generally failed to do so. With Glork, it's easier to get a meta on him, and I looked for stuff he does as town but doesn't do so much as scum. I've also tried to judge his sincerity in debates where he apparently got worked up or angry, and looked to see whether the stream of consciousness seemed to progress in the way it might for town. With Andrew, I judged him at least partly on what others said and did around him, rather than getting into a large debate with him about the finer points of the defences he was using, which seemed flawed for the most part. Different people, different approach. But yes. I've not really paid much attention to CES compared to some players. Other players I paid relatively little attention to were CDB, Nightfall, fritz maybe others that I can't remember.

Another "admit to scummy behavior "-post. You say Glork is easy to read and to expose my thoughts you need to ask questions. Subcontiously or not, you actually use the word "ignore" when it comes to discussing CES.