Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[MrBuddyLee]

CES:
I am now going to try and find five pro-town things CES has done. Wish me luck.

Puts AndrewS at L-2 and encourages Zindy to hop on. Not terrible considering the quality of this town. Neutral.

Zindaras: it's pretty easy to get a read on Thesp. Just follow him blindly. If the town's losing, he's probably scum. If you just won the game, well, then he's probably town.

CES, do you actually believe this?

CES is fifth on the svwagon with eight to lynch.
Half a credit for pointing out that IH overreacted to the svwagon.

Switches back to Andrew after sv claims vig.

Gives a bunch of vig theory advice. Nulltell.

Calls Zindy antitown for voting IH, who's going to be vigged anyway. Borderline protown for trying to get more info out of Zindy. 1/2 point.
=========================================================================
FOSes Glork and Thesp to start out D2.
Votes Glork, FOSes Thesp again for stupidity D1.
That's page 20, and this pretty much says it all:

Glork: 3 (Patrick Cogito Ergo Sum MgM)

You forgot about commas.

Still voting Glork (3/7), asks Thesp to join.
Pressed, says his vote on Glork is for pressuring rather than indicative of suspicion.

FoS: Glrok for misrepresentation. I did not "refuse to explain", I was never asked to explain.

Falsehood. Glork asked him for reasoning.
Spars with Glork about the reasoning for his Glorkvote--claims it was pure bandwagoning. Didn't look like it at the time, considering he FOSed first. Is there such a thing as an FOSwagon?

Glork: 2 (Cogito Ergo Sum Mgm)
Mgm: 2 (Glork Patrick)
Thesp: 2 (MrBuddyLee ChannelDelibird )

I sense a great disturbance in the force. As if I wasn't bandwagonning properly.

Unvote, vote: Thesp

This is three days before deadline, taking Glork off the table and putting Thesp on. Mgm, who is also at 2 votes, calls CES on it. Bandwagoning three days before deadline is terrible, ridiculously reckless play. This vote's the first significantly anti-town CES action--leading wagon manipulation with bandwagoning as an excuse.

I move to Ether, CES demands I move back to Thesp to facilitate wagoning. Mgm-wagon now leads, Mgm asks CES to move to Glork, CES won't do it.

CES, why didn't you wagon Mgm?

Mgm joins CES on Thesp. That's 4 to Mgm's 3.
Zindy hops on, that's 5, CES implores Glork to wagon:

If, for some reason, he comes up town, you'll have lots of juicy info on Mgm and Adele. It's win-win.

Gets attacked from all sides, defends with:

hypothetically, if a mislynch were to give us two scums(Mgm+Adele), then the lynch would certainly have been in the town's interest.

Note: Mgm has been doing some weird shit for two days and CES's only comments on him are basically "this is how he plays" and "he is town".

CES, please go into detail about what Mgmscum looks like.

ps. "Gut + Metagame, essentially." is not a sufficient answer.

48 hours to deadline, CES posts like 11 times trying to get Thesp over the hump. He reams Thesp for misleading town about the deadline lynch policy, apparently in hopes of changing one more mind.
*note: Admittedly, what Thesp did seemed sketchy on the surface, but I think it actually put him in more danger than otherwise (like 5 people called him on it, as expected) and may have been an honest mistake.

CES, who was wagoning Thesp besides CDB?

===============================================================================================
D3 Adele dead, CES starts on Thesp with FOS: Ether for not hammering.
CES argues lack of hammer was a terrible play for parity reasons.
CES defends against Thesp's attacks on his behavior by saying the town's responsible so he doesn't have to worry about quicklynches.
Glork shows concern about CES's lack of breadth, CES gives him the heisman.
Delibird wagon is three, the Glork-MBL fiesta begins with Glork demonstrating certainty of CDB's guilt. CES FOSes Glork for the certainty. Glork ignores the FOS--I would have expected the typical "Why?"

CDB claims, CES is first to respond. Casts doubt with the awkward parenthetical:

MrBuddyLee, why don't you share what you "found" in his posts? (I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim if there's good reason to believe he's scum.)

Not willing to do the research on his own... mild lack of curiosity.
CDB encourages counterclaims, CES defends the absurd statement:

If he's town, he obviously thinks that asking for a counterclaim rather than just getting lynched is a good idea.

This is the second time you've attempted to discredit a valid point by ignoring specific context. It makes sense for him to ask for counterclaims.

Thesp was right, asking for counterclaims was neutral-to-anti-town, and it's bizarre that CES defends.

CES, do you actually believe scum would EVER suicide-counterclaim to get pro-town CDB killed?

My opinion as regards the most likely lynch and most likely nightkill(Channel and Mgm respectively) are already out there. And I'm pretty sure I'm right on both counts, so I doubt waiting one night will affect my opinion.

Seems to assume he'll be around tomorrow. Possible scumslip. Town would want to be on the record in case they die overnight.

Out of the blue, before CDB lynch:

Glrok is probably pro-town in this game. True story.

CES now finds CDB tip-top scummy but isn't voting him, explanation:

No, it's not his behaviour that really bugs me, although it is slightly scummy. It's the claim.

Also out of the blue, considering he just defended CDB for asking for counterclaims.

And a step further, now he's convinced of CDB's guilt:

I'm already convinced of his guilt and I don't even know whether I could find it because I might not even think it scummy

Nightfall calls him on it. CES still isn't voting.

CES, what was so unconvincing to you about the claim?

Eventually, after much ado about nothing, CES hammahs CDB.
=============================================================================================
The hammer came two days before deadline, with Zindy and Ether yet to check in. Nulltell. Like Glork, CES showed too much confidence in the upcoming CDB result.

Next morning, first post:

Damn. Now I understand [1145]. Off to look for his results.

Four minutes later:

His Night 1 investigation is fairly obvious. An innocent on Thesp. So he's the Godfather. This is good to know. He doesn't really hint at a Night 2 investigation, although a guilty on Channel seems the most likely possibility. Vote: Thesp

Four minutes is pretty speedy. Even Stallingchamp can't consistently switch alts in that timeframe...

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork moves CES to the top of his list seemingly for the continued Thesp suspicion.

Ces explains the logic behind still finidng Thesp scummy:

I'm certain that Thesp is a GF because Fritz had an innocent on him and he is scum. I personally have no trouble reading it as a bussing attempts. He expressed suspicion of Channel often without providing much reasoning and he had little problem with voting for other people. I mean, he drew attention to Channel, but I don't hold him responsible for the Channellynch.

I can see the argument but I don't like the vote considering the likely investigation result. No way is Thesp getting lynched asap, and CES has criticised others before for placing pointless votes like this one.
Most people weigh in on Thesp as townish, CES dejectedly unvotes.

Moving on, Glork gets cold feet about CES, CES proclaims Zindy and a few friends town:

I've already eliminated Glrok, Zindaras and Mgm.

Glork, are you part Dutch?

Glork calls me out for harping on CES,

CES asks Thesp why he showed no interest in looking for whatever CDB "evidence" I'd found the previous day. 1/2 point.

CES 3 Zindy 2, CES asks Zindy to make a case against Thesp. CES still isn't voting--Patrick and Nightfall are the only choices to bandwagon.
CES disappears for a bit, apparently ill, then returns to wagon Nightfall. 3-3 CES/Nightfall.

I ask CES how he pegs Zindy as town, same response as on Mgm: "My opinion on Zindy is mostly based on gut and metagaming."

Thesp notices the sudden move to Nightfall.

2 days to deadline, 3-3 CES/Nightfall. Deadline removed.

CES says he can't read me, asks Glork for permission to sheep onto me. He disappears while Glork and I go at it for a few pages, then sheeps:

But MBL is most definitely downplaying Zindie's analysis post, something you, Glrok, mentioned as a distinct pro-town sign. Quite scummy. Unvote, vote: MBL

CES claimed to find Zindy townish on his own--why would he need to invoke Glork's opinion on a post to indict me? Smells like suckup.

Glork unvotes, CES unvotes.
New deadline set, CES is #2 on Nightfall, BM replaces.

CES is flip about BM's entrance and analysis, picks out 6 comments about himself to respond to,
then:

BM is actively lying and deceiving to paint me as scum (with Glrok as partner).

Accurate description, except for the lying and deceiving part. Solidifies on BM:

He's already decided I'm scum 6 lines into his analysis. This is typical scum going after a target (as opposed to town looking for scum). I even make sense as a target(I'm probably the easiest lynch here(apart from BM), ceteris paribus.

BM self-hammers.
========================================================================================
Start of day, Glork suspects CES, CES essentially proxies his vote to Glork.

CES, is there anyone you wouldn't follow Glork onto?

CES finally explains why he finds certain people town:

It's gut feelings, Glrok, as I have stated previously, that I'm basing these things on. I look at the totality of one's posting, not specific parts. I'm being vague because my reasons are vague. They're still correct though. I also just said I did not come to these conclusions during Day 1 itself.

Can anyone who's played against CES-scum tell me if he has a tendency to use more specific arguments as scum or if he's always this vague?

CES makes what I see as a disastrous move, for the worst of reasons:

Thinking about what's going on today, Patrick and Thesp seem to be impossible to get lynched. Mgm and Glrok are town. That leaves MBL. Vote: MBL

Leaving aside the bizarro confirmation of Glork and Mgm, what if Thesp and Patrick had been the scumpair? Your unwillingness to fight for your belief (at least with regards to Patrick) could have cost town the game. And I'd like to think you're too savvy to make that play, and that you're scum. But I've seen the same pattern in Jelly and in Himalayan, so experience tells me to treat this as another nulltell, which is just stupid. You're a bright guy, and you really should step up your game when you're town, even if it makes your job as scum more difficult.

Mgm makes the odd statement:

I'm happy to see you (CES) on the (MBL) wagon, but I'm not sure you did it for the right reasons.

Actually, much worse than odd, because we now know that at least one of CES/Mgm HAS to be scum. Any posts after #1690 that show either CES or Mgm favoring the other are evidence of deceit.
===============================================
I don't think I found five pro-town actions. I have more work to do, including making sure in my mind that Thesp and Mgm should be off the table for today. Please answer the questions I've bolded, and apologies for the spam but I needed to do this, and I think it'll give three of you insight into my current thought processes as you evaluate my alignment.

[Mgm]

Actually, much worse than odd, because we now know that at least one of CES/Mgm HAS to be scum.

That would make today very easy for me. How do you know at least one of us is scum? How is CES so sure Thesp is scum?

[Mgm]

MBL: You asked CES what wagon he wouldn't follow Glork onto. I'd like to ask you the same. What person would you not be willing to lynch right now?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, do you actually believe this?

It's obviously hyperbole, but it's certainly one way of finding out his alignment.

CES, why didn't you wagon Mgm?

I try not to cause mislynches.

Gets attacked from all sides, defends with:

No. Not a defense, a tangent. My defense is and was that my comment was not meant to be serious, which should be fairly obvious.

CES, please go into detail about what Mgmscum looks like.

Different, mostly, somewhat nervous and less prone to make original suggestions.

CES, who was wagoning Thesp besides CDB?

Look at the VC's, dude. Mgm was with me, that much I remember, but I'm not sure who else. Adele?

CES, do you actually believe scum would EVER suicide-counterclaim to get pro-town CDB killed?

Well, no. That was a brain fart on my part.

Seems to assume he'll be around tomorrow. Possible scumslip. Town would want to be on the record in case they die overnight.

Scum tends to kill claimed cops over suspicious-looking people. For some reason.

Out of the blue, before CDB lynch:

I got that out of re-reading.

CES, what was so unconvincing to you about the claim?

Like I said earlier today, basic statistics. Both Channelscum and Channelblocker would make that claim. 3 scum left, 1/3rd of a Blocker => 90% of the time he's scum.

Four minutes is pretty speedy. Even Stallingchamp can't consistently switch alts in that timeframe...

I can read through all of Fritz's posts in 4 minutes. There wasn't a lot to read.

CES claimed to find Zindy townish on his own--why would he need to invoke Glork's opinion on a post to indict me? Smells like suckup.

Wrong. You were talking about how there was too little content from Zindie for Glrok to change his mind about him. You played Zindie's analysis post off as irrelevant while Glrok had mentioned it as distinctly pro-town. I wasn't "invoking Glrok's opinion", at all. I was giving an argument against you.

CES, is there anyone you wouldn't follow Glork onto?

Mgm, Glrok and CES.

Leaving aside the bizarro confirmation of Glork and Mgm, what if Thesp and Patrick had been the scumpair?

Then we were doomed. You should realize this, too.

Actually, much worse than odd, because we now know that at least one of CES/Mgm HAS to be scum. Any posts after #1690 that show either CES or Mgm favoring the other are evidence of deceit.

No, silly Lee, we obviously both think that you are scum, there's no special reason for either of us to suspect the other.

[Mgm]

MBL: Before you say you didn't notice them, I'd like you to respond to the posts that were made during your lengthy analyses.

Non-voters: If you had to put all your eggs in one basket right now and vote, who'd get the chop?

Everyone: Who are you least willing to lynch right now?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mgm: Mgm and Glrok.

[Mgm]

CES, I want a single name for both questions. (please specify which name is in answer to which question)

[Patrick]

CES would get the chop.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I am not a non-voter, so that's my answer to your second question.

If I had to choose between you and Glrok, I'd probably go with you, as Thespscum does not imply Glroktown while Thespscum does imply Mgmtown, so my gut would have to be wrong on two counts rather than one. Glrok has also made some silly posts attacking me.

[Mgm]

I'm sure I attacked you too. How is that any different from Glork's attacks?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He seems somewhat eager and post 1727, for example, is just plain bullshit. Attacking me is an sich not scummy.

[Patrick]

f I had to choose between you and Glrok, I'd probably go with you, as Thespscum does not imply Glroktown

Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch.

[Glork]

Non-voters: If you had to put all your eggs in one basket right now and vote, who'd get the chop?

CES

Everyone: Who are you least willing to lynch right now?

Probably Patrick.

Like I said earlier today, basic statistics. Both Channelscum and Channelblocker would make that claim. 3 scum left, 1/3rd of a Blocker => 90% of the time he's scum.

I think that your use of statistics is horribly flawed. The odds of CDB being a roleblocker are no more larger or smaller than the odds of any specific player having any specific role. It may be true that "CDB Roleblocker" was highly unlikely, but it is no more or less likely than, say, "Glork Vig."

Secondly, I think you're making a flawed assumption in that scums would necessarily claim Roleblocker. I could see RB, Cop, or Deputy, easily; and I could possibly see Vigilante (though I admit that I would have been rather skeptical of that one).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch.

True. In fact, disregard what I said. It's Thesp + MBL, so I don't see the point in picking one person I wouldn't lynch.

I think that your use of statistics is horribly flawed. The odds of CDB being a roleblocker are no more larger or smaller than the odds of any specific player having any specific role. It may be true that "CDB Roleblocker" was highly unlikely, but it is no more or less likely than, say, "Glork Vig."

And if you had claimed vig, I would've gone after you. The majority of the town is townies, Glrok. A power role claim does make one more likely to be scum. There's nothing wrong with my maths, dude.

Secondly, I think you're making a flawed assumption in that scums would necessarily claim Roleblocker. I could see RB, Cop, or Deputy, easily; and I could possibly see Vigilante (though I admit that I would have been rather skeptical of that one).

Vigilante is obviously a horrible claim. Cop has to give results. Most importantly, the Roleblocker is the only one that can explain surviving the Night. Scums might not claim RB 100% of the time, true, but even if they only claimed it 50% of the time(a very low estimate, I'd say), he'd still be scum 80% of the time.

[Thesp]

Drops the Thesplove.

Seeing statements like this makes me sad.

Like I said earlier today, basic statistics. Both Channelscum and Channelblocker would make that claim. 3 scum left, 1/3rd of a Blocker => 90% of the time he's scum.

If it's only simple statistics, why add the bolded part of this quote?

(I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim

if there's good reason to believe he's scum

.)

It appears there's more than simple statistics going on, because you're clearly

not

willing to lynch him based solely on the numbers.

Actually, much worse than odd, because we now know that at least one of CES/Mgm HAS to be scum.

While you can assert that, everyone else can only say with certainty that at least one scum must be found in {Cogito Ergo Sum, Mgm, MrBuddyLee}.

Everyone: Who are you least willing to lynch right now?

I really, really don't like this question and don't think anyone should answer it. Flaming FOS of botherment: Mgm.

(I'm sad to see some people have answered it already.)

Mgm, what do you think of Cogito Ergo Sum?

[Mgm]

f I had to choose between you and Glrok, I'd probably go with you, as Thespscum does not imply Glroktown

Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch.

If you're scum together with MBL a lack of quicklynch would hardly be exonorating.

[Mgm]

Everyone: Who are you least willing to lynch right now?

I really, really don't like this question and don't think anyone should answer it. Flaming FOS of botherment: Mgm.

(I'm sad to see some people have answered it already.)

Right back at you.

FOS: Thesp

Have a good think about why that question is important and non-scummy.

Mgm, what do you think of Cogito Ergo Sum?

Ã

[Patrick]

If you're scum together with MBL a lack of quicklynch would hardly be exonorating.

Quite correct but I'm not sure how that was relevant to what I was discussing with CES.

Right back at you. FOS: Thesp
Have a good think about why that question is important and non-scummy.

This is interesting and weird.

[Mgm]

Really? I thought it was evident.
It's starting to look like people are disagreeing with me just for the sake of it.
MBL/Glork/anyone, care to enlighten these two or should I?

[Patrick]

I am not disagreeing with you for the sake of it. I think I have an idea what Thesp's complaint is. I also thought FoSing him right back seemed suprising. Feel free to go ahead and enlighten me, I'm listening.

[Thesp]

I am not disagreeing with you for the sake of it. I think I have an idea what Thesp's complaint is. I also thought FoSing him right back seemed suprising. Feel free to go ahead and enlighten me, I'm listening.

QFT. Big time. I want to see why

you

think this question is so important. Your attempt to get others to answer your problems is noted.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It appears there's more than simple statistics going on, because you're clearly not willing to lynch him based solely on the numbers.

That was an initial reaction. I hadn't gone through the numbers yet at that point.

[Mgm]

Of course you do. That way you can tailor your response to fit. I don't think so.

[Patrick]

Of course you do. That way you can tailor your response to fit. I don't think so.

You realise that Thesp doesn't plan on responding to your question right? Please explain why you asked it.