Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Mr Stoofer]

New Page Vote Count

Battle Mage: 4 (CES Glork Thesp Patrick)
MrBuddyLee: 2 (Mgm CrashTextDummie)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 1 (Battle Mage)

Not voting: MBL

Looking for

5

votes for a lynch!

[MrBuddyLee]

The CDB-wagon started with Thesp-Glork-MBL. And yet Thesp and Glork are two of BM's top three suspects:

I could see a great number of potential scumpairs, including the obvious CES-Glork, Glork-Thesp. I don’t think CES and Thesp could be scumbuddies.

Somehow, I very much doubt that the first two people to put CDB on the hotseat were both of his scumpartners, lol. When scum gets lynched, town uses the lynch info as one of the primary pieces of evidence for determining alignments. It doesn't appear that BM factored that in. Nightfall did and chose to find Glork suspect and Thesp innocent.

In fact, in the same post where BM slipped and said Mgm was proven innocent by an investigation, he lists Thesp as a top suspect. I don't see how any of this reflects a read of the thread with genuine curiosity. It's more likely that he knows the alignments and is tailoring his analysis to them.

[Glork]

If that's what you think, you should just drop the hammer already. I am an impatient Glork.

Assorted thoughts:
MgM is making the same point I did about MBL "keeping his options open." Either MgM and I are just plain right, or MgM is setting up MBLtown to try to be the lynch tomrorow, once BM dies as scum. Either way, it's making me more confident that one of them is the remaining scumbaggo. (Yes, MBL, I'm stating as a fact that BM will be lynched as scum. Have fun with my certainty here. )
To Patrick, Re: Ether -- Based on the newbie game in which Ether was scum, I don't see early, heavy busing as being remotely indicative of her playstyle as scum. She didn't really commit *anywhere* right off the bat, but she kinda made astute observations about other players' behavior. Her sound logic appealed to me (a little too much, I must say)... but she didn't go after Ibby with *any* seriousness, and she didn't really overextend herself at all. Now granted, that was a Newbie setup, and Ether was much more of a novice player back then, but I still find it difficult to believe that she would have tried going after her scumbuddy all game. I understand your paranoia, but I seriously wouldn't worry too much about it this time around.
MBL notes that BM favors MgM heavily in his MGM/Thesp speculation, but that of the three early on CDB, he favors MBL *very* highly over Glork/Thesp. I find this to be a significant oversight (and likely intentional, though not necessarily indicative of MBLscum) in MBL's conclusion that BM's theoretical scumbuddy is somebody ignored and not on the CDB-wagon.

[Patrick]

It was mostly just a bitter comment. If Battle Mage is lynched as scum, CTD will basically move into the almost certainly town list for me.

[MrBuddyLee]

Thesp bases his current vote entirely on Nightfall's words and has given us no substantial analysis of BM's.

CES limits his analysis of BM's post to comments BM made about CES. Entirely defensive and shows little interest in gauging alignment.

Patrick asked some of the questions I would have asked had he not.

Mgm latches onto the post 595 argument and gives no further comment other than that BM's analysis was "decent".

CTD ignores BM's posts entirely.

Glork's having a go at BM's posts, as he did with the Zindy situation. Positive sign. And yet he's rushing the lynch--I'd like to have the gaps above filled in before considering a lynch. And I'd like to hear people's opinions about those gaps.

[Battle Mage]

The CDB-wagon started with Thesp-Glork-MBL. And yet Thesp and Glork are two of BM's top three suspects:

I could see a great number of potential scumpairs, including the obvious CES-Glork, Glork-Thesp. I don’t think CES and Thesp could be scumbuddies.

Somehow, I very much doubt that the first two people to put CDB on the hotseat were both of his scumpartners, lol. When scum gets lynched, town uses the lynch info as one of the primary pieces of evidence for determining alignments. It doesn't appear that BM factored that in. Nightfall did and chose to find Glork suspect and Thesp innocent.

In fact, in the same post where BM slipped and said Mgm was proven innocent by an investigation, he lists Thesp as a top suspect. I don't see how any of this reflects a read of the thread with genuine curiosity. It's more likely that he knows the alignments and is tailoring his analysis to them.

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?
dont be silly. this is a game with experienced players. the skill at which the scum is playing is evident in the fact that 2 of them are still alive, with all power roles dead. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if Glork/Thesp bussed their buddy.
forgive me if im wrong here, but being on the wagon when scum is lynched, DOES NOT CONFIRM YOU PROTOWN. If thats your mentality, you might as well go home now. :p

oh and btw, can people stop referring to bits of my analysis which are wrong as 'slips'. ive already explained (and its evident to anyone reading it) that those were my thoughts at the time. My first thought was, "ah, MgM must have come up protown then". the gf bit became obvious later, and whilst it is true that MgM isnt 'confirmed' town, as i had said, there is little way in which that mistake could be construed as scummy.

ive probably said before, that its hard to make good judgements, when i could see the vast majority of you as opportunistic scum. I really doubt that the town will win this game. My personal suspicions: Thesp is a probable Godfather, with CES/Glork as the goon. if Thesp is scum, Glork is the most likely to be his buddy. if Thesp isnt scum, CES is a safer bet for the next day.

BM

<<quote moved>>

[Patrick]

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?
dont be silly. this is a game with experienced players. the skill at which the scum is playing is evident in the fact that 2 of them are still alive, with all power roles dead. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if Glork/Thesp bussed their buddy.
forgive me if im wrong here, but being on the wagon when scum is lynched, DOES NOT CONFIRM YOU PROTOWN. If thats your mentality, you might as well go home now. :p

This is probably what's called a strawman, though that's maybe only for when you subtly change what someone said. Nobody is saying that being on a scum lynch confirms a player as protown. What people are saying is that starting a wagon on confirmed scum tends to be be a town tell. The tone and manner in which Glork/Thesp went about it did not feel like busing.

oh and btw, can people stop referring to bits of my analysis which are wrong as 'slips'. ive already explained (and its evident to anyone reading it) that those were my thoughts at the time. My first thought was, "ah, MgM must have come up protown then". the gf bit became obvious later, and whilst it is true that MgM isnt 'confirmed' town, as i had said, there is little way in which that mistake could be construed as scummy.

I think the point being made was the vast difference between your assessments of MgM and your assessment of Thesp, the two investigated players.

[MrBuddyLee]

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

What I'm actually asking is HOW DO PEOPLE EXAMINE A WAGON? Town looks at it to try and see whose suspicions were genuine and who manufactured something to tag along. Common sense tells town that the first two people on a successful scumwagon probably aren't both scum. I'll be very surprised if Thesp and Glork both turn out to be scum considering how that lynch played out, and therefore BM seeing them as a scumpair is indicative of a different kind of read of the lynch.

Scum reads a lynch for anything they can use to sow doubt. That appears to be what's happening here.

[Patrick]

Battle Mage:

Also, mind explaining why MBL looks like the "most protown looking player here"?

[Thesp]

Thesp bases his current vote entirely on Nightfall's words and has given us no substantial analysis of BM's.

Why should I, when I see little worthwhile in BM's posts, but find something incredibly condemning in his predecessor's? PBPA's are highly overrated, and often more self-congratulatory than actually useful.

[Mgm]

I think the point being made was the vast difference between your assessments of MgM and your assessment of Thesp, the two investigated players.

You're forgetting that in my case the investigator came out and revealed their result. Thesp's investigation is likely but not confirmed. Talking about us as "the two investigated players" assumes we're at an equal 'cleared' level which is simply not true.

[Mgm]

Mgm latches onto the post 595 argument and gives no further comment other than that

BM's

Nightfall's

analysis was "decent".

Not everything requires further comment, you know. I'd much rather spend those words on something useful, like revealing your inconsistencies.

[Glork]

....and often more self-congratulatory than actually useful.

I disagree with this. But maybe that's because I'm one of the few people who knows what to look for when making an all-encompassing PBPA.

[Mgm]

Mgm latches onto the post 595 argument and gives no further comment other than that

BM's

Nightfall's

analysis was "decent".

Not everything requires further comment, you know. I'd much rather spend those words on something useful, like revealing your inconsistencies.

This might require some explanation. BM is on the top of the vote count and with the serious possibility of him getting lynched he's getting all the attention, which means other people slip off the radar.

Mgm, nice misdirect. Do you think it's reasonable for BM to find the entire CDB-wagon scummy?

This is a nice bit of misdirection in itself. Call the accusation a misdirect and no one will notice you're not actually defending yourself against it. I'm still waiting.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mgm, if you read through Fritz's posts and if you know how Fritz played, Thesp is obviously someone he had a result on. There isn't any competing theory. He wouldn't have investigated anyone who had died Night 1 (spec or IH). We can't be 100% sure, of course, but the difference is negligible compared to the very much real chance of GFness.

[Battle Mage]

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?
dont be silly. this is a game with experienced players. the skill at which the scum is playing is evident in the fact that 2 of them are still alive, with all power roles dead. It wouldnt surprise me 1 bit if Glork/Thesp bussed their buddy.
forgive me if im wrong here, but being on the wagon when scum is lynched, DOES NOT CONFIRM YOU PROTOWN. If thats your mentality, you might as well go home now. :p

This is probably what's called a strawman, though that's maybe only for when you subtly change what someone said. Nobody is saying that being on a scum lynch confirms a player as protown. What people are saying is that starting a wagon on confirmed scum tends to be be a town tell. The tone and manner in which Glork/Thesp went about it did not feel like busing.

IN YOUR OPINION.
I agree that in some cases, starting a wagon on scum is a town tell. On the other hand, the conviction with which Thesp went after CDB is suspicious in itself. Bussing is pretty common, and in a game with experienced players such as this, you have to realise that scum will bus to boost their town protection.

oh and btw, can people stop referring to bits of my analysis which are wrong as 'slips'. ive already explained (and its evident to anyone reading it) that those were my thoughts at the time. My first thought was, "ah, MgM must have come up protown then". the gf bit became obvious later, and whilst it is true that MgM isnt 'confirmed' town, as i had said, there is little way in which that mistake could be construed as scummy.

I think the point being made was the vast difference between your assessments of MgM and your assessment of Thesp, the two investigated players.

the fact is that MgM has not acted nearly as scummy throughout the game as Thesp. If 1 of those 2 is the Godfather, id choose Thesp every time, due to his play throughout the game.

BM

[Battle Mage]

so you consider it impossible that scum can lynch other scum?

Yes, that's what I'm saying.

What I'm actually asking is HOW DO PEOPLE EXAMINE A WAGON? Town looks at it to try and see whose suspicions were genuine and who manufactured something to tag along. Common sense tells town that the first two people on a successful scumwagon probably aren't both scum. I'll be very surprised if Thesp and Glork both turn out to be scum considering how that lynch played out, and therefore BM seeing them as a scumpair is indicative of a different kind of read of the lynch.

Scum reads a lynch for anything they can use to sow doubt. That appears to be what's happening here.

what you say is true of typical games, but im sure you aware that there are exceptions to such rules. often, scum can go unnoticed for much of the game, and thus the fact that Thesp spotted CDB so early on is suspicious in itself. It seems quite possible that Glork noticed this bussing attempt, and joined in early, so that the rest of the town would share the same view as you: They cannot be scum.
Of course, if Thesp isnt scum, its still concievable that Glork is. Glorks could have seen a townie latching onto his scumbuddy, and when it looked like some sort of reaction would have to be made, he decided to cut his losses and bus.

i dont understand your last comment. is that a confession?

<<quote moved>>

[Battle Mage]

Battle Mage:

Also, mind explaining why MBL looks like the "most protown looking player here"?

if i remember correctly, his analyses of the gameplay coincided alot with mine. he didnt do anything especially scummy either.
BM

<<quote moved>>

[MrBuddyLee]

CES, CTD, any further comment on BM's posts? CES, why so defensive in your analysis? CTD, why'd you ignore BM's comments entirely?

A new player, and likely a more readable one, has replaced into the game, and I don't understand the reticence to analyze his words. People standing pat on the testimony of Nightfall aren't using all the evidence we've been given. Personally, I think BM's made mistakes that Nightfall didn't, and has given us more insight into the role.

[CrashTextDummie]

CES, CTD, any further comment on BM's posts? CES, why so defensive in your analysis? CTD, why'd you ignore BM's comments entirely?

Because it's nigh impossible for me to see them as anything but scum trying to weasel out of being lynched (post 1564 stands out in particular).

I agree that he is giving us valuable information, but I don't think it's worth analysing in detail until we know his alignment.

I'll drop the hammer sometimes later if no one else is willing to.

[Glork]

DOOOO IT!!

[Thesp]

CES, CTD, any further comment on BM's posts? CES, why so defensive in your analysis? CTD, why'd you ignore BM's comments entirely?

Because it's nigh impossible for me to see them as anything but scum trying to weasel out of being lynched (post 1564 stands out in particular).

I agree that he is giving us valuable information, but I don't think it's worth analysing in detail until we know his alignment.

I'll drop the hammer sometimes later if no one else is willing to.

DON'T PULL AN ETHER! NOT THIS TIME!

Do a CES.

[Battle Mage]

i hate being left at L-1.

Vote: BM

still, at least in my time here i made some contribution to the game. Hopefully when you realise that i am not scum, you might wake up and pay attention to what im saying.

Good luck town. Please kill CES/Glork/Thesp tomorrow.


BM

[Mr Stoofer]

End of Day 4 Vote Count

Battle Mage: 5 (CES Glork Thesp Patrick Battle Mage)

MrBuddyLee: 2 (Mgm CrashTextDummie)

Not voting: MBL

[Mr Stoofer]

You all know my views on self-voting, so I am not going to waste my breath on a pointless tirade against someone who (just when you think he might be learning how to play this game) goes and does something immature like that... Anyway, at least I don't have to spend any more time on editing his posts.

Here is Battle Mage's card:

OK, you all know the drill now: everyone close your eyes and start drumming the table, while I ask everyone who has them for their night choices.

It is now Night 4: Day 5 will dawn 48 hours from this post