Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!


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Post Post #2100 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:18 am

Post by Mgm »

Patrick wrote:I think no lynching gave us easily as much information as lynching in this case.
Please share that information with us. Because if the no lynch garnered useful info, I want to use it.
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Post Post #2101 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 8:41 am

Post by Mgm »

Patrick wrote:
MBL wrote:And finally, a little revisionist history:

"If I was scum with CDB, I'd definitely have wanted to be on his lynchwagon, maybe even earlier than I was. MBL's switch over was the one bothering me the most actually."

No, you found me likely protown at the time. Now you've changed your tune.
True, I've changed my mind, but I'm not sure what you're trying to show.
You said MBL's switch was bothering you when it clearly wasn't, because you declared him town at the time. Your reflecting your current ideas on an earlier day when you actually had different thoughts.
Ether hit you on this Thesp contradiction:

Ether wrote:
No, seriously. You explicitly said here that Thesp was out of character, but your later statements have contradicted this. Please explain.

And you reply: "His play on day 1 was pretty usual for him."
So his day one play is pretty usual but he was acting out of character? How exactly is that not a contradiction?
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Post Post #2102 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:10 am

Post by Mgm »

Patrick wrote:With the hindsight that both Thesp and Ether were protown, I'd like you to explain how holding off voting either of them is meant to be scummy.
Hindsight is nice, but you couldn't possibly have known for sure he was town back then (unless you are a scumbag). Not lynching an innocent early in the game is not a strong indication of someone's alignment. Not lynching innocents (and later using that action by sucking up to them or proclaiming their innocence with a fake investigation is actually common scum tactic)

Holding off on lynching Thesp might've saved his life temporarily, but it meant we didn't get certain information from his bandwagon (I'm wondering what you think we did learn). Having someone finish him off and Thesp be revealed as town at the time would've revealed something about the people who were pushing the wagon and the reasonings people were using to paint him scummy and to name his possible buddies.
Why do you only target me with your "admitting to being wrong" is a scumtell?
Because you are appearing to use it to make discussion about certain points you don't like die out (I haven't seen this from MBL or Glork). Just saying your wrong means you don't have to give an elaborate explanation to justify your action.
You keep talking about, "MBL would have sacrificed himself yesterday if he was scum." What would you expect him to do exactly? "Hey guys I'm scum lynch me now plzkthxbai". And it's been pointed out that his quick vote for CES may have been at attempt to do exactly that, whilst putting distance between himself and CES.
Of course not, calling attention that way would've called attention to the fact he was trying to derail the CES wagon. I would've expected something more subtle from ScumMBL. Voting CES might've done the trick, if it wasn't for the fact he was trying to save him especially when it is a "quick third vote". You can just about expect someone to put on a fourth and get him lynched (bandwagons don't often derail when they reach -1 status). I would've expected him to draw attention to himself (the last in a way that doesn't show he's trying to get CES off the chopping block -- after all, he was already being voted) or perhaps another player.

I believe when two scum buddies are both being voted in this situation, the non-GF would do the "honorable" thing and save the GF. In this particular case, there was more reason to it. Both Thesp and I were investigated and found innocent, making us partly confirmed. The only scumbag we could still be was GF. By not protecting the GF the scum would create two confirmed innocents while saving him would've kept everyone a suspect. (A decidedly better position for the scum to be in).
Also, what did I do yesterday that you would expect from scum?
Why is that question so important to you? I came to the conclusion you were scum by way of elimination Glork investigated innocent by Fritzler (I'll come back to that in one of the other questions) and MBL for the way he acted yesterday. That leaves you and all the actions of yours throughout the game MBL just posted about only strengthen that feeling.
If you are so set on using the WIFOM of last night's kill against me, then I want you to explain why exactly you think I would have killed CTD on night 4 if I was scum. Not something I'd usually bring up, but you are apparently a big fan of using nightkills to make crucial decisions.
I don't know why you or anyone else would kill CTD. I used the Thesp kill to make a crucial decision because it was a crucial kill decision for the scum and that kill says a lot about the scum who committed it.
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Post Post #2103 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:24 am

Post by Mgm »

Patrick wrote:Mgm, if Glork said, "I think the fact that Patrick's name begins with a P is a scumtell, what do you guys think?" would you agree with that?
Of course not. That would be ludicrous and I'd tell him. He might be confirmed in my eyes, but that doesn't give him a free pass to spout crap. Pretty similar to my situation. I am confirmed innocent but Glork and MBL didn't waste any time to tell me they believed me to be hasty.
Do you actually plan on looking at anything at all that points towards me not being scum? Are you even capable of doing that anymore? Why are you selectively avoiding topics?
I'm still happy to look at any evidence against MBL at this point, but since I was so wrong about CDB and CES, I forced myself to rethink my view of MBL himself. Most of my earlier ideas were based on the idea he was scum with you, Glork or Thesp with that idea obiviously out of the question, he's become a lot less of a suspect. Also, I've been wrong just about everyone so far, so since I called him scum for a long time, common sense dictates I'm probably wrong about him too. The evidence against him would have to be pretty convincing - that OR some exonorating evidence regarding you.
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Post Post #2104 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:31 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Mgm, don't you find it odd that Glork and Patrick both seem to trust each other so much considering the way each has played? Obviously they're not both scum for it, but one is displaying terrible judgment while the other is scum who's picked me as the easiest lynch to ride to victory.

Do you get a sense of which is which, based on their stated reasoning for trusting each other?

I guess I should ask the same of Patrick and Glork--what do you think of the other guy's reasoning for trusting you?
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Post Post #2105 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:56 am

Post by Mgm »

MBL, when Patrick nudged you away from CES onto Zindaras,
why exactly did you change your vote?
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Post Post #2106 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:57 am

Post by Mgm »

Glork, why have you been on the leading bandwagon each and every day of the game?
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Post Post #2107 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:59 am

Post by Patrick »

Mgm wrote: Please share that information with us. Because if the no lynch garnered useful info, I want to use it.
It showed us who didn't want to hammer Thesp. I personally decided, correctly, that Ether was town mainly because of that. Thesp decided, correctly that I was town based on that. The next day, we made a more informed lynch and killed scum instead of town. Obviously a good thing.
Mgm wrote: You said MBL's switch was bothering you when it clearly wasn't, because you declared him town at the time. Your reflecting your current ideas on an earlier day when you actually had different thoughts.
It didn't bother me so much then, it does now. I've said that there were plenty of people looking worse then.
Mgm wrote: So his day one play is pretty usual but he was acting out of character? How exactly is that not a contradiction?
Read my posts in reply. His day 1 play was pretty usual. His early day 2 play was not (generally feeble, going after non contributors). Then later in day 2 his play become more normal and I gradually became less suspicious. I have explained this before.

Mgm wrote: Hindsight is nice, but you couldn't possibly have known for sure he was town back then (unless you are a scumbag). Not lynching an innocent early in the game is not a strong indication of someone's alignment. Not lynching innocents (and later using that action by sucking up to them or proclaiming their innocence with a fake investigation is actually common scum tactic)
Scum win the game by getting innocents lynched. If I were scum I could have lynched him and received little real attention for it, whilst taking out a good protown player who was going after CDB, who we now know is scum. I did not suck up to Thesp in any way, I thought he was innocent after CDB turned up scum and I was right. I don't know what you're getting at with the "fake investigation" part. I don't know of any fake investigations.

Mgm wrote: Because you are appearing to use it to make discussion about certain points you don't like die out (I haven't seen this from MBL or Glork). Just saying your wrong means you don't have to give an elaborate explanation to justify your action.
Why would I come out with some elaborate explanation instead of telling the truth? This is insane.
Mgm wrote: Of course not, calling attention that way would've called attention to the fact he was trying to derail the CES wagon. I would've expected something more subtle from ScumMBL. Voting CES might've done the trick, if it wasn't for the fact he was trying to save him especially when it is a "quick third vote". You can just about expect someone to put on a fourth and get him lynched (bandwagons don't often derail when they reach -1 status). I would've expected him to draw attention to himself (the last in a way that doesn't show he's trying to get CES off the chopping block -- after all, he was already being voted) or perhaps another player.
He did draw attention to himself. A third vote without comment is obviously going to draw attention in that situation.
Mgm wrote: Why is that question so important to you? I came to the conclusion you were scum by way of elimination Glork investigated innocent by Fritzler (I'll come back to that in one of the other questions) and MBL for the way he acted yesterday. That leaves you and all the actions of yours throughout the game MBL just posted about only strengthen that feeling.
Shrug, I just wondered. I actually think MBL behaved more like scum than I did yesterday.
Mgm wrote: I don't know why you or anyone else would kill CTD. I used the Thesp kill to make a crucial decision because it was a crucial kill decision for the scum and that kill says a lot about the scum who committed it.
This is silly. If you're so set on using nightkills to make crucial decisions you don't just leave certain ones out that don't suit you. The CTD nightkill was every bit as important as the Thesp one.
Mgm wrote:Also, I've been wrong just about everyone so far, so since I called him scum for a long time, common sense dictates I'm probably wrong about him too. The evidence against him would have to be pretty convincing - that OR some exonorating evidence regarding you.
This doesn't make sense. If I were to follow that logic then I'd vote Glork because I think he's less likely scum and I've been wrong about alot so far. This is backwards logic. You simply can't work like that. As for evidence that suggests I'm town, you won't find any if you're determined not to.
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Post Post #2108 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:15 am

Post by Patrick »

MBL wrote:I guess I should ask the same of Patrick and Glork--what do you think of the other guy's reasoning for trusting you?
Eh, not sure I can particularly remember it much, other than general gut feeling. I think it's a reasonable enough call to make, doesn't mean it couldn't come from scum trying to make a friend in the town, but I could see him doing it as town. In LO2 he was kind of similar; at some point he just said my posts sounded pretty genuine and didn't really ask me any questions or grill me at all.
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Post Post #2109 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:13 am

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Mgm wrote:MBL, when Patrick nudged you away from CES onto Zindaras, why exactly did you change your vote?
I actually didn't. The nudge happened on April 30th, 4 days before deadline. The vote count looked like this:
Mr Stoofer, April 30th wrote:
Vote Count


Nightfall: 3 (Ether GlorkCES)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 2 (Nightfall MBL)
Zindaras: 2 (Patrick Thesp )
MrBuddyLee: (Mgm)
Not voting: Zindaras
I stuck on CES to deadline, at which point the vote count looked like this:
Mr Stoofer, May 3rd wrote:
"New Page" Vote Count


Nightfall: 4 (Ether Glork CES Patrick)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 3 (Nightfall MBL Thesp)
MrBuddyLee: 1 (Mgm)
Not voting: Zindaras
Looking for
5
votes for a lynch!


21 hours, 18 minutes until deadline!
Note they just needed one more vote on Nightfall...
Then the deadline got extended:
Mr Stoofer wrote:
Deadline extended by majority request!

New Deadline:
Monday 21st May 5pm BST!
Two hours later I switched to Zindaras because he'd done absolutely nothing in the previous month and a half and he clearly needed to be pressured. It would be inexcusable to let scum survive that kind of behavior, so we needed him on the record immediately. You can't catch scum if you don't make them talk. I didn't make the switch before deadline because the odds of getting Zindy to talk in the few days before deadline were slim, and I'd rather have lynched CES.
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Post Post #2110 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:35 pm

Post by Mgm »

Makes sense.
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Post Post #2111 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:44 pm

Post by Glork »

Mgm wrote:Glork, why have you been on the leading bandwagon each and every day of the game?
That's pretty much how I do thinks. Need I link to other games?


Also, Mgm, you still have not addressed my earlier posts. I am going to repost this YET AGAIN, because I'd really like a response one way or another:
Glork wrote:MGM: My biggest outlying question right now would be for you to address this:
Glork wrote:Mgm, could you post your thoughts on Post 1886:
Patrick wrote:
Glork wrote:Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?
I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.

** Comment on laziness from before: I don't think Thesp has been playing any lazier than normal, nor am I playing lazier than normal. In fact I've put more into this game than my average game. The laziness that bothers me is mostly CES. If I had one/two votes on me, especially from varying people, and with others expressing suspicion of me, I'd be freaking out and trying my hardest to convince people that I shouldn't be lynched and that they should take me out of quicklynch range. Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.**

MBL's analysis today is pretty good, and looks fairly protown, but I know he's thorough as scum and I wouldn't put it past him to do it as scum as well as town. I think if he is protown then voting CES like that was not the cleverest idea in the world, but equally if he is scum with Mgm then it would also have been a really sloppy attempt to snatch victory when just waiting a day or two would have been completely safe.

The pairing that worries me the most (after CES/Mgm which is currently my top one) is actually CES/MBL rather than Mgm/MBL. I think I mentioned before that there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early? I could see a GF busing heavily at a pinch because he can't be touched by cops but a goon busing the GF seems risky when you don't know what the poweroles are. And again later, there just seems to be alot of genuine angst between them. I'm still not too happy with Mgm's opening to today, because it looked pre planned, and not at all how I felt starting the day, and apparently not how Glork (who I think is protown) felt at the start of the day, which may indicate a different mindset. Pre planned busing or pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill? Or just unusual playstyle bleh. Glork, if you have some link you can see between Mgm and MBL, other than MBL's vote for CES, then you might as well tell us. For MBL/CES though, there is some distance between them but not as much, could be contrived. I'm not going to worry that much about it right now because in this case lynching CES is absolutely fine anyway. If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum.

Taking it one step at a time, CES seems like the best lynch to me. How worried are you about that MBL/Thesp pairing you were talking about before? Because I've taken it mainly that CES has been blowing steam, but again, if there's some link between them then now is the time, we might not get another chance. Thesp has seemed pretty genuinely protown to me for a while now though.
Note, Mgm, that this came after a post in which I said: "Patrick, you and I think we're pro-town, and the two of us are deciding today's lynch, so give me your opinions and I will take them into consideration."

Would you have expected PatrickScum to come back with a post that amounted to "CES is the lynch today" or would you have expected PatrickScum to attempt to convince me that MBL was the play for the way he pounced on CES? Keep in mind that, if Patrick/CES were the scumpair, Patrick could have jumped on MBL just as I did, gotten a mislynch on MBL, and ended the game right there and then.

You say that MBL's behavior towards CES yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective. I've been thinking that Patrick's behavior yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective, and I have proposed a scenario where MBLscum would pounce on CESscum just the way he did.
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Post Post #2112 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:44 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

If Glork is scum, here's how he and his scumteam played.

He goofed off D1, putting sv at risk with a random vote and stating he was willing to lynch her, but giving no reasons for his suspicions. When criticized by Zindy for it, he replied,
Glork wrote:Zindie. If anybody knows how absurd I can behave, it's you.
During her run-up, he said:
Glork wrote:I don't think AndrewS is particularly scummy.


But three days later he voted to lynch Andrew and told sv to vig IH. He had to know his behavior would attract attention and a possible investigation. His vote and FOS of CES were so he could later claim he didn't ignore CES. He didn't mention CDB D1, except to FOS CDB for expressing suspicion of Glork:
CDB wrote:I'm trying to think who Glork reminds me of in this game (I don't think it's Glork). Whoever he's behaving like I don't think he's being particularly helpful.
The only three people CDB commented on D1 were Glork, CES and Andrew, which would be his two scumpartners and the lynchee, terribly sloppy distancing.

CES joked with Glrok and FOSed sv, Patrick, Glork, CDB and IH.

CDB got on Andrew and stayed all day. CES jumped on Andrew late, Glork hammered, so all three were on the lynch.
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Post Post #2113 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:46 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

D2, CES voted Glork. CDB agrees that Glork is scummy and his only two interactions are with Glork, and he waits two weeks before voting Thesp instead.

Glork drew connections between CES-Thesp, and spent a disproportionate amount of energy trying to connect people to CDB. Another Glork FOS of CES, CDB is "slightlybad". Glork pushes Mgm, Adele, then Thesp for the lynch.

Two weeks before deadline, vote is 2-2-2 with CES on Glork, CES switches to Thesp with stated reason "bandwagoning", lost interest in Glork and found Thesp scum for the rest of the game at this point. CDB and CES were 1-2 on Thesp with Glork 5th. Again, all three on the wagon.
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Post Post #2114 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:51 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

D3, CDB again votes Thesp out of the blocks and sloppily distances from Glork. CES votes Thesp out of the blocks, pays some attention to Glork. Clearly the overnight plan by scum was to attack Thesp.

Glork starts out D3 suspecting Thesp, and did 2/3 of his reread PBPA before realizing Fritz was a cop. You can see his mind spinning in his next few posts as he tries to figure out what to do now that Thesp is cop-innocent. He votes Ether, FOSes Zindy, both for lurking, and tells CES to nightkill himself. Distancing from CDB and CES kicks into high gear, and Zindaras/Nightfall/Ether become his additional suspicions.

Glork follows the cop's innocent onto CDB, establishing cred. CES keeps hammering at Thesp and Glork, unaware.

After CDB claims, CES takes the opposite tack from Glork and and suddenly switches Glork to his pro-town list but keeps heat on Thesp. The two of them help bury CDB.
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Post Post #2115 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:57 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

D4: Glork starts out his first post of the day claiming he was investigated by Fritz.

With only one scumpartner remaining, Glork attacks CES stridently and votes him. He urges Thesp and MBL to turn our FOSes of CES into votes, then 45 minutes later suddenly switches direction and says he has cold feet on CES and switches to Ether.

This is the most bizarre stretch in the game:
Glork, April 25th, 8am wrote:Unvote, Vote: Nightfall
CES, April 25th, noon wrote:Unvote, Vote: Nightfall
Glork, may 2 wrote:Patrick, would you rather lynch Nightfall or CES? I'd move to CES before the deadline.
Stoofer, May 10th wrote:Cogito Ergo Sum: 3 (Nightfall Thesp MBL )
Nightfall: 2 (Ether CES )
Glork, May 10th wrote:Unvote, Vote: MBL
CES, May 11th, 2pm wrote:Unvote, Vote: MBL
Glork, May 11th, 6pm wrote:unvote
CES, May 12th, 2am wrote:Unvote though, as Glrok has done the same.
CES, May 18th wrote:vote: Nightfall
CES, May 21st, 3pm wrote:Glrok, Patrick, vote for Nighfall, please.
Glork, May 21st, 3:45 pm wrote:May 21st vote: Nightfall

CES sheeped all over Glork, Glork claimed to be willing to lynch CES, but instead Glork picked me instead of CES and at the end Glork followed CES onto Nightfall. Not once in this stretch did Glork express concern about CES matching his every move.

Glork expresses 61 suspicions of Zindaras D3-D4, then this:
Glork wrote:I've wavered on Zindaras a lot lately
A review of Glork's previous posts shows no wavering at all. He's all over Zindaras, his previous two evaluative posts on Zindy being:
Glork wrote:I could still see Zindie/CES, Nightfall/CES, or Nightfall/Zindie
Glork wrote:I think we should lynch Nightfall and ask for an overnight modkill on Zindaras. Who's with me? <.<
There are no posts by Zindaras--absolutely nothing from him to give Glork any reason to change his mind like this. It looks like Glork, smelling inevitable lynch/modkill, positioned himself to smell like a rose afterwards.

After modkill scum needs two mislynches to win, and Nightfall+MBL/Ether/Mgm looks promising, especially if they can keep the godfather alive. By June 2nd, Glork is "95% positive" Nightfall is scum. CES helped drive the lynch home.
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Post Post #2116 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:06 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Start of D5, scum needs a mislynch to win.

CES votes MBL out of the blocks, keeping up the "if I follow Glork blindly they'll never suspect we're scum together it's too obvious" plan, and stays on me all day.

Glork makes a radical and unexplained shift from MBL is scum to CES+Mgm are the scumpair without rereading the thread:
Glork, June 8th wrote:I think that MBL is my top suspect, but at this point, I really have no idea what the hell I'm doing.
Mgm, June 8th wrote:I'm considering MBL+Patrick.
Thesp, June 8th wrote:CES is by far the best play for the day.
Glork wrote:I work all weekend, and on Monday/Tuesday (I think). I'll get to a reread on Wed. (June 13th).
CES, June 9th wrote:And how sure are you about Patrick, Glrok? Because if he's town, then MBL has to be Thesp's Goon.
Glork, June 9th wrote:Actually, CES, I'm leaning slightly towards you/MGM at this moment.
The change from MBL #1 suspect to CES #1 Mgm #2 in 24 hours
with no reread
is stunning.

MBL+Thesp were leaning CES and Patrick was expressing doubts about MBL being scum, so this looks like plan B: if we can't get a quick MBL lynch, be sure to distance from each other.
Glork, June 13th, 2:05pm wrote:I am beginning (a reread) now, but make no promises to finish today.
Glork, 2:30pm wrote:Okay, initial thoughts: I may be liking where this MGM/CES wagon goes.
Glork, 2:45pm wrote:Possible MBL/CDB connection noted.
Glork, 3pm wrote:Post 261 by MBL bothers me.
Glork, 3:07pm wrote:286 by MBL looks like fuuuuuel for the fire.
Glork, 3:16pm wrote:
FoS w/possible ItV: CES
Glork, 3:30pm wrote:Post 422 looks bad for both Thesp and CES (worse for Thesp, by a small margin
Glork, 3:34pm wrote:
vote: CES
CES, 3:34pm wrote::nothelpful:
Glork, 3:44pm wrote:Hypocrite.
CES, 3:45pm wrote:If you want to metagame, you can't just look at one game in which I was scum.
Glork, 3:55pm wrote:Ugh.
Unvote, FoS: CES
until everyone has had a chance to talk/respond. You people piss me off.
So in the span of an hour, Glork started his reread, found Mgm, MBL, CES and Thesp suspicious, and decided to vote CES, then unvoted 20 minutes after a conversation between himself and CES.


When Glork finally votes, he says "Let's see if we're totally boned or not." I wanted to see if he really meant this, so I threw down my vote, which I was prepared to drop anyway, with no explanation. And Glork jumped at the opportunity to unvote CES, indicating he wasn't truly committed. His explanation:
If Patrick or MgM had been up and had been scum with MBL, the game could have ended right there. I still fear that MBL's vote was designed to allow a scumbuddy to drop a quicklynch.
Which is totally bogus reasoning for unvoting, because that "quicklynch" by Patrick+MBL, Patrick+Mgm or Mgm+MBL could have happened overnight anyway once Glork dropped the vote and went to bed. If Glork was town, his vote had already assumed that risk.
Glork, June 27 wrote:why have you not put your vote back on CES, MBL?
Glork, June 28 wrote:I'm leaning about 55% towards voting CES.
Glork, June 29 wrote:I still think CES is scum.... I think.
Glork, July 1 wrote:I think it's about time to throw down.
CES dies as scumfather. Glork isn't on the wagon.
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Post Post #2117 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:09 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

D6 Glork has picked his target for the day and clearly done his planning overnight. He explains his push to lynch me as a metagame he's picked up on, which proves to be totally invalid. He votes me five days in. Then another amazing shift:
Mgm, July 12th wrote:
vote: Patrick
Glork, July 14th, 6am wrote:Needless to say, Mgm, I've got my heart set on lynching MBL right now.
MBL, July 14th, noon wrote:Glork has seemed significantly more scummy this game, but there's probably a 60% chance he's been investigated.
Glork, July 14th, 7pm wrote:
unvote.
I don't know who I want to lynch anymore.
So at 6am Glork's heart is set on voting MBL. At the first sign that there's a chance at a three vote consensus on Patrick, and only twelve hours later, Glork's gone from "heart set" to "don't know".

Now he's back on me.
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Post Post #2118 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:13 pm

Post by Glork »

MBL, you still haven't addressed the issue of "If Fritz didn't investigate me, who did he investigate and/or why didn't he hit?" point brought up earlier.
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Post Post #2119 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:23 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

The inconsistency of Glork's suspicion is too great, just about every day. No one else in this game has ridden this kind of rollercoaster.

After three or four or six months, a townie gets a strong sense of who's scum and who's not. You don't see radical shifts in opinion except at the starts of days when there are two huge pieces of information to work with--alignment of lynchee plus nightkill. Scum, however, know EVERYTHING from day one, and they invent suspicions after a week, a month, three months, six months. They generally try to keep their suspicions consistent to make them appear townish, but it's hard because they don't HAVE suspicions and it's to their benefit to ignore some suspicious people like they ignored CES for much of the game.

One solution to this problem is to change suspicions like mad as both town and scum in an attempt to disguise scummy behavior when scum. That doesn't change the fact that inconsistency is a scumtell. I think Glork's inconsistency goes beyond what I'd expect if he were town, and the explanation is that he's scum. Add that to his terrible "results", and I think he is our final scumbag despite the fact that means Fritzler inexplicably didn't hint at his cop result from N2. I just can't read Glork's behavior as town, and Patrick has come across as more consistent and genuine. I am very close to voting at this point.

I'd like to hear both Patrick's and Mgm's takes on my reasoning here.
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Post Post #2120 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:50 pm

Post by Glork »

Specifically, MBL, I would like you to address Fritz's change from "I'm following Thesp, not you" (paraphrased, of coruse) to "Who's the play, Glork?" (also paraphrased), as pointed out in Patrick's 239th post:
Patrick239 wrote:Asks Thesp who the play is and makes a point of saying that he was not asking Glork. Day 3, he then asks Glork who he wants to lynch. Tangible difference.
Specifically, I want you to answer:
A) Why this is different from typical "I have an innocent on you" behavior from Fritz; and
B) Why FritzCop would say that towards me and nothing similar towards anybody else (i.e., the hypothetical "other" whom he would have investigated).
C) Why Fritz would come to such a change in heart sans-investigation.


Earlier today, you gave a 60% chance that Fritz investiagted me. Why exactly has that percentage decreased?
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Post Post #2121 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:30 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Thesp is voting CDB, CDB is voting Thesp.
Glork votes Zindaras, Fritz tells us we're retarded.
Glork votes Ether, Fritz does not follow.
Fritzler wrote:
Glork wrote:Ohhh. That makes more sense.

Please move your vote off of Thesp and put it somewhere useful.

:knowstuff: [/Fritz]
glork is so icey

who do you want to lynch?

ether the 30 year old creepy guy?
Glork wrote:Ether is a good bet for now. Might switch to CDB or maybe Zindaras later.
Fritzler posts with no vote.
Glork wrote:Unvote Ether, Vote: ChannelDelibird.
Fritzler wrote:unvote, vote: CDB

most likely possibilities:
* Fritz investigated Thesp N1, Glork N2 and asks Glork who he wants to lynch to indicate the innocent result on Glork
* Fritz is using you as cop cover after you blow his cover. You indicate you know Fritz is the cop with an innocent on Thesp ("move your vote off Thesp/knowstuff/Fritz") too obviously for his comfort and Fritz decides to pretend you're the cop and follow you so his cover's not blown. He follows it up later with:
Fritzler wrote:dude im sure one of the people that wants to lynch cdb is the real power role i don't know which htough, and ifeel comfortable killing him
Pointing squarely at you.

Fritz didn't follow you onto Zindaras or Ether to indicate trust. But he did follow you onto CDB. It's possible he just liked the CDB vote cause Thesp was already there, and it's possible but less likely that he had a guilty on CDB.

I still think it's significantly possible he investigated you. If I was 90% sure of that fact I'd vote Patrick in a heartbeat. But based on an objective read of Fritz's one meaningful post, I'm not willing to bank the game on one possible interpretation of it.
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Post Post #2122 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:14 pm

Post by Glork »

MBL, your alternate theory would depend on me flat-out TELLING FRITZ THAT I KNEW HE WAS THE COP. Can you find
ANY
rationale for me to do that as scum?

Sorry, mate, but you'll have to do a hell of a lot better than that.



Also, your "significantly possible" bit doesn't do anything for me. As has already been stated, your "60% likely that Fritz investigated GlorK" means that there is, in your mind, a 60% chance that Patrick is *ABSOLUTELY* the last scumbag. So there is
AT LEAST
a 60% chance in your mind that I am not scum. Yet you say you are "very close" to voting me?

Seriously. You can die now.
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Post Post #2123 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:46 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Sorry, but whether it's 40% or 60% or 50% at this point, it's just not at all certain that Fritz investigated you. I'm taking many considerations into account when making my decision, and that's just one of them. Voting records, misstatements, inconsistencies, nightkill choices, the opinions of the deceased, and metagaming--they all factor in.

The fact that you're trying to ride my genuine uncertainty on the issue to a mislynch is just one more thing to pile on the heap of "unreasonable things Glork probably wouldn't have done if he were town."

ps. I guess you'd rather change the subject to cop confirmations than address the analysis posts to which I just gave my Saturday.
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Post Post #2124 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2007 11:14 pm

Post by MrBuddyLee »

Glork wrote:MBL, your alternate theory would depend on me flat-out TELLING FRITZ THAT I KNEW HE WAS THE COP. Can you find
ANY
rationale for me to do that as scum?
In retrospect, I can't see any rationale for you doing that as town OR scum. You pretty much outed the guy, you admitted to it in your quote below, and I'm surprised so many people missed it:
Glork wrote:The ":knowstuff: [/Fritz]" post was a signal to Fritz that I knew he was the Cop. I'm reasonably sure he picked up on it.
More correctly, your post was a signal to everyone, including the three scumbags, that you knew Fritz was the Cop. Why would you do such a reckless, retarded thing as town? Granted, many of us missed it, but it would only take one scumbag to notice. Or, more likely, you weren't worried about hinting openly because you're not protown.
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