Lay of Leithian Mafia: Game Over!

[Iecerint]

Not-yet Confirmed

2. xofelf
13. Anon
15. curiouskarmadog
16. FeFiFoFum
21. ooba

I don't know FFFF.

Vote: FFFF

Will check

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: posts in the interim.

[Iecerint]

vote:FFFF

I will support every FFFF wagon.

How does he go?

[Iecerint]

There are a lot of negative feelings in this game.

[Iecerint]

Midterms are finished!

Not-yet Confirmed

2. xofelf
13. Anon
15. curiouskarmadog
16. FeFiFoFum
21. ooba

All of these players check out with regard to posting patterns except ooba.

IGMEOY: ooba

I took Els RVS as an allusion to Precision mafia, which just ended. Cobalt and Els were scum together. I don't think anyone kept up pressure after he explained as much, though.

Els, any particular reason Anon gets the vote over SX?

I never random vote. Am I a good Day 1 policy lynch in every game I play?

I think Kmd is misrepresenting SF's point here. SF claimed that failure to random vote is a net scumtell. He didn't approach the policy lynch issue. Also, if there's a bizarre policy lynch anywhere, it's the one on SF. Namely, his playstyle's been perfectly acceptable in the games I've played with him.

I think the scummiest thing to happen so far is xvart's insistence that his vote on Els was "non-RVS" after being challenged on the issue. It looks like he felt compelled to justify himself rather than reflect on his position.

Unvote; Vote: xvart

. Watching ooba's slot, too.

[Iecerint]

Are serious votes really being placed about the first RVS post in the game?

Instead of questioning the person suspected, overreaction and opportunism reign.

If Escoul is scum, then Starbuck is scum with 'im.

Starbuck used similar rhetoric as town ("Bella's Mom") D1 in Twilight IIRC. D1 lynch.

[Iecerint]

Thanks Yerk.

I have a helpful heuristic for which is which!

I want a DGB hydra.

[Iecerint]

mebe @ J. My only game with SB since then was Kingdom Hearts, where she was 3rd party and replaced in D2.

Vote Count 04: Lynch

Starbuck - 1 - PaltryExcuse
Drippereth - 3 - J-Scope, Cyberbob, xvart,
Steam Powered Shovel - 1 - Starbuck
SensFan - 2 - Steam-Powered Shovel, curiouskarmadog
Kmd4390 - 1 - FeFiFoFum
FeFiFoFum - 1 - Jack
Starbuck - 1 - Cobalt
SpyreX - 1 - SocioPath
Elscouta - 2 - SpyreX, Anon,
Elmocrates - 1 - SensFan
xvart -

6

- Elmocrates, Budja, Drippereth, Kmd4390, Iecerint, farside22
Anon - 1 - Elscouta
MehPlusRawr - 1 - Papa Zito,

Not Voting (3): MehPlusRawr, ooba, xofelf

With 25 players alive it'll take 13 to lynch and 13 to no-Lynch.

There are no players in the

Halls of Mandos

, so right now there are no

Revive

or

Destroy

counts.

[Iecerint]

I agree that it wasn't a random vote in the sense that my vote wasn't a random vote, but I have a difficult time believing that you could accurately characterize it as a "serious" vote, which is the impression you gave.

SB, your post in this game was like LET'S NOT ALL GET CAUGHT UP IN RVS GUYS whereas that in the other upon EK replacing zwets you was more like GOSH WE LET OURSELVES GET ALL WORKED UP WITH THAT; RESET! Maybe that makes it clearer what I was referring to. It's definitely true that the situation was different, but the premise was the same.

[Iecerint]

lol

EBWOP: whereas in the other one, upon EK replacing zwets, you were more like*

I cannot spell. I think I have a brain tumor. Or MS. Bummer.

[Iecerint]

Uh, I fail to see the contrast you're implying.

RVS

EARLY GAME WAGONS, if that makes it clearer. The point is that you were objecting to an atmosphere where players join wagons (ala RVS voting) without thinking critically. Drip thought this meant you were scum with Els, but I thought it was similar to your attitude after zwet replaced out. Also:

Are serious votes really being placed about the first RVS post in the game?

I vaguely remember you making a post very similar to this, which is probably what jogged my memory. Ima go check.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, it was this:

Wow, am I really getting grilled about RVS?

Which got the wagon going. Or I remember /headdesking when I read it as a replacement after your lynch, at least. XD

[Iecerint]

I don't like being told that I'm wrong. I can't help it.

If I say I LOVE MINESTRONE in a Church or in a Mall, the context is different, but the sentiment is the same.

@ J, that's totally my point -- Drip's perceived scumtell on SB was a playstyle quirk rather than an alignment tell IMO.

Second closing the issue. Was only intended to address Drip's concern.

[Iecerint]

(Side-Note: Is J someone I know? I dun recognize the name. O.o)

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: nvm. Hi, Faraday. <3

[Iecerint]

1. What pressure on Starbuck are you talking about? Drip's 2-line-post that SB was scumfriends with Els that s/he quickly took back when I alluded to Twilight?

2.What response of hers are you talking about? Her claim that my explanation for her would-be scummy behavior didn't make sense?

[Iecerint]

I used this to check whether there was evidence that some of the late-to-confirm players might have intentionally delayed their confirm (e.g. to extend pre-game talk). If players posted elsewhere on the site after I got my role PM without /confirming, that would be evidence that they might be deliberately putting off the /confirm.

The players who weren't ooba posted in the morning, but then not until 6 PM or so that night, which reasonably fits with their delayed /confirm. ooba kept posting all over the place, so that didn't fit. He posted earlier today and indicated that he hadn't realize the game had started, which may explain his situation.

I like x more than ooba atm. I'd like ooba to catch up quickly, though.

[Iecerint]

Unvote; Vote: Jack

.

At best, town setting up an anti-town meta. That, or he simply lacks restraint.

I thought he might be going somewhere with it at first.

[Iecerint]

Perceived "poor scumplay" doesn't make it townplay. especially when there's no meta defense to justify it. I think nicemeta players are more likely to do that kind of thing as scum than as town.

By Elmo's logic, cops should claim D1, because protective roles will be able to find them, anyway.

[Iecerint]

You are asking the wrong question. The question is not "Why would scum do this" but rather "Which would do this: town or scum? How does that ratio compare to background probabilities?" Extrapolating "why would scum do this" to its logical conclusion rewards poor play. In reality, poor play is what catches scum.

scumJack might do it to:
1. Engender precisely this situation. (2SCUM4SCUM~!)
2. Observe reaction of perceived crumb'd.
3. Alert buddies to existence of perceived crumb to work on exposing whomever.

townJack might do it because:
1. He wants to give Jack an anti-town meta because he thinks anti-town play is fun. (Unlikely; Jack appears to be the primary account.)
2. He's really proud of himself for having found the Cop crumb, and he can't keep his mouth shut. (Which sort of begs the question of why he's hunting for Cop crumbs, anyway.)

So the conclusion is that the behavior is more likely to come from scumJack than townJack. I agree that it is poor scumplay, which is why I waited a little before voting him. I thought he was going somewhere with the SX exchange.

My counterexample was a fine extrapolation of what you said IMO. Your argument (in different words) was that cops being exposed is OK because then the protective roles will know about them. Very minimal introspection will indicate that this is mistaken.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: "Nicemeta" means "normal meta" (e.g. players who aren't DeathNote, zwet, etc).

[Iecerint]

EBWOPx2: Oh, I see what you meant. It is true that claiming is different from scum exposing. But it's still not true that scum have no motivation to prod at perceived crumbs. This issue came up in an ongoing game, so it's on my mind.

[Iecerint]

My point is that if the only question is "Would scum do this?", you systematically ignore scum who play "poorly." It is relatively straightforward for scum to appear town using that heuristic -- "be scummy"! My heuristic is better because it does not permit that. (Meta is a third piece of the puzzle, but it's irrelevant for nicemetaJack AFAIK.)

I don't understand. You don't think poor play catches scum? (To clarify, that's poor play on the part of the scum obvs. As stated above, it's relevant because your heuristic explains away poor scumplay.) Assuming you didn't just misparse my sentence, what kind of play do you think catches them? O.o

1. Look at where his rhetoric went as soon as SX called him out.
2. I would be frazzled if someone made fun of my crumb.
3. Confirmation ftw. I'll elaborate on this after the ongoing game ends.

Your (3) for townJack's reasons is the same as my (2). I don't think either of townJack's reasons are plausible (relative to scumJack's) for the reasons I give in the parentheses. You quoted them.

[Iecerint]

There is a difference between scum having a poorly thought out reason to do something and scum having no reason to do something at all.

That is vacuously true, but has nothing to do with the situation at hand IMO.

One of my largest frustrations with the game of mafia is that I get the distinct impression that lynches (especially early ones) are almost entirely correlated with a players "skill", rather than their alignment. This phenomena is easiest to see with players like Deathnote or CSL or Zwet, who will almost always without fail be lynched at some point over the course of the game regardless of what their role is. I believe it was theFonz that once said something along the lines of "the side with the most Village Idiots loses".

I agree with you 100%, but, again, that has nothing to do with the situation at hand AFAIK. My only other experience with Jack is ongoing. If you have reason to believe that that sort of thing is typical townJack play, please let me know.

[Iecerint]

Jack is welcome to come and explain his pro-town motivation for lampshading the perceived cop crumb. All he's done so far is refuse to answer that precise question and allude to a 2SCUM4SCUM interpretation of his behavior.

My perception is that Jack is not dumb, so I don't think cross-supplying "but it's zwet!"-type arguments to this situation makes any sense.

[Iecerint]

My perception is that Jack

is not dumb

does not have an anti-town meta

, so I don't think cross-supplying "but it's zwet!"-type arguments to this situation makes any sense.

Fixed. Was using your adjective. Not that I think Jack is dumb.

[Iecerint]

ooba, please note the author of the posts in the future. i don't really know who you're referring to and can't be bothered to check all of them, frankly. if you want people to read your allusions, adding ATTN-type information is helpful.

Which question are you talking about? Do you mean Elli's scumlink? I jumped in because I had reason to believe it was invalid for a reason that Elli probably didn't know about. This is a habit of mine. Prevents us from wasting time on stuff I know is not fruitful. I suppose it kinda backfired this time, but w/e. <_<

Elmo, I was personally surprised to see Jack do that. He has seemed highly perceptive in my prior experience with him. I think he wouldn't have done that as town without an expected short-term payoff. When it didn't come, scumJack became the default assumption. His decision to avoid the issue since then makes me pretty comfortable with my assumption.

HOWEVER

Complete bull from Cyberbob. I'm sort of focusing in on the part about me, but that part is crap. Namely, I didn't say policy lynches were bad; I said policy lynches are different from SF's vote IMO. Also, the vote that follows is like LOL-inducing OMGUS IMO. His only allusion to Cobalt is to claim that he is "useless," whereas one of said posts points out a totally reasonable inconsistency in CB's behavior. (Well, at least a respond-to-able one.) He also ignores the Iec-Jack issue 100%, which possibly implies an unfavorable Jack connection.

Also, LOL @ complaining about the "uselessness" of Cobalt in a catchup post. XD Still, fair enough @ Cobalt only posting a little I guess.

HMM.

Unvote; Vote: Cyberbob

. I think Budja's point about the discrepancy between Cyberbob's behavior relative to Els and Kmd was shaky-ish, but CB's failure to address it looks bad. Also, what he DID address looks bad. I can't speak for the aspects of his bulleted list that I can't be bothered to read through right now; correct me if there's isolated brilliance in there somewhere, please.

/drunkpost

[Iecerint]

^ Really? Find it for me, please. Did not see.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: Do you mean 206? Because his text literally has nothing to do with your point AFAIK. Here is how the whole narrative goes:

Cobalt: VOTE CB
*time passes*
Cobalt: UMM GUYS CB IS SCUM CUZ (etc.)
Budja: LOLYA. FOR EXAMPLE, (etc.)
CB: HI GUYS. IT IS EASTER. THEREFORE, I WILL CATCH UP LATER!
CB: CATCH-UP POST! HOWEVER, I WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDRESSING COBALT/BUDJA'S ISSUE! BUDJA AND COBALT ARE SCUM THO! I WILL VOTE COBALT BECAUSE HE IS USELESS! (HERE ARE SOME OTHER FACTS ABOUT THE GAME SO THAT THIS IS NOT PURELY AN OMGUS POST.)

Find the missing puzzle piece plz.

[Iecerint]

I totally missed that bullet last night @ CB. I thought you were conspicuously avoiding that issue, especially when I noticed your "catch-up-after-easter!" post where you quoted that bit. Now that I've seen it, your explanation on that issue is fine.

SBS, I was way too compromised to read and review all the "post XX is good"-type comments last night. That is why it is now 3 PM. I just read his post for stuff I could recognize offhand, and the main case against him so far. I kept looking for him to address it in an @ Cobalt, but he did it in an @ Budja, so I missed it. The only @ Cobalt I saw weakly discredited Cobalt on grounds CB himself was probably guilty of (given that it was a catch-up post), he also suspected another player who was suspicious of him (Budja), he misrepresented my point on SF IMO, and he ignored Jack, so I had a pretty negative perception of his comeback post.

CB, you didn't have to weigh in on the little theory debate. You just had to say whether Jack was naughty. You've said that Els's was irrelevant because it referred to a previous game and that Kmd's was fine, too (even though you posted about it? and then you said that it was fine by benefit-of the-doubt?). What about Jack's? And why do you want him to show you the Cop breadcrumb? O.o

[Iecerint]

Half of Drippereth is DrippingGoofball. 95% chance that she's responsible for the posts that are alarming you. That is typical DGB behavior. See Kingdom Hearts mafia for townDGB; she catches scum just about every day with similar tactics.

Cobalt is literally always scum in my past experience IIRC (Super UPick, Kingdom Hearts, Precision). I thought he was scummy in Precision, so I don't think that game was inconsistent with his scum meta. (No word on his town meta, though.) However, I think the CB vote was timely, even though Budja was the one who explicated it.

102 is xvart twisting other players words. Bad.

xvart looks stubborn-townie to me

I get the impression that the shift in how you're reading xvart is a by-product of suspecting Drip and Anon. Do I have that right?

[Iecerint]

My bad; you do allude to Jack in the form of "the page 7 about breadcrumbing." That's still a potential way of sidestepping the issue, but w/e.

It wasn't just a disagreement IMO; it was a misrepresentation. That is not what I said at all. But this was a relatively minor point, anyway.

I can tell you that I in no way want or wanted him to show me the breadcrumb.

I would love to know where the hell Jack came up with the cop-word though.

Then what's up with this?

[Iecerint]

The main point was the perceived OMGUS on Cobalt and Budja.

Right, the words you used look like a request for the claim itself. But then you claimed that you never wanted him to actually supply the perceived crumb. Are you saying your "I'd like to see the crumb!" statement was rhetorical? If so, what was the purpose of the rhetoric?

[Iecerint]

My point wasn't that you hadn't addressed the "main point," but that you attempted to discredit me by "lmao"-ing my statement that your misrep of me was relatively minor. It was minor because the major part was the OMGUS.

LOL/XD are rhetorical. Their purpose was to call attention to what I perceived to be silly inconsistencies in your post.

I suppose you're saying that your "rhetorical" statement was intended to call attention to the absence of the hypothetical Cop crumb? Did you wonder whether this might lead Jack to, I don't know, call your bluff?

[Iecerint]

Well, first I asked an open-ended question. You didn't answer it, meaning you either don't understand why it's important (townCB), or you simply can't answer it (probably scumCB). So I decided to make clear what it LOOKS LIKE went down so that you'd be clued in if the former were the reason for your being so uncooperative. The fact that you subsequently continued your evasiveness and stepped up your attempts to discredit me implies the latter.

[Iecerint]

Um. Is EK one of the hydras? You've said that twice now.

[Iecerint]

Starbuck, could you show me an example of naughtymetaJack? I requested just that a few pages ago, and no one responded.

[Iecerint]

She says Jack does this all the time. That surprises me. I want to see what she's talking about.

[Iecerint]

k.

[Iecerint]

I've never gotten that impression from past games I've played with you.

I love meta. I am occasionally too lazy to bother with it, though.

[Iecerint]

Unvote; Vote: PapaZito

Nullifying my favorite events in the game so far, and being responsible for the policy lynch on SF that rubbed me the wrong way earlier (never quite noticed that; it'd made me get negative feelings about SPS). Also, 0% impressed with his reported reads. Alsoalso, low activity, and an unusual fixation on MPR.

Will bother CB more later.

[Iecerint]

You really annoy me.

Happy scumday @ PZ.

[Iecerint]

Ah, hell, I'll bite. What's pathetic about it?

[Iecerint]

I liked the Jack wagon better before CB got mixed up in it. It blows my mind that people don't find him scummy. (AND I HAVE NOT BEEN DRUNK FOR SEVERAL DAYS.)

Same deal with MPR/SPS. Namely, I think all (well, several) of the SPS posts MPR listed are scummy, but I don't think I ever agree with the reasons he lists.

[Iecerint]

Is that [insert lame OMGUS counter-argument here] OMGUS, or are you claiming that someone has OMGUS'd somewhere? Cuz I dun think you ever attacked me, and I don't think Jack attacked Elmo.

[Iecerint]

He's saying that some of the most information-rich parts of the game are "null." This is dubious-to-scummy.

I'm talking about the SensFan "policy" lynch he started. I didn't really associate it with him because SPS is the one who really championed it, but it's a policy lynch without explanation or merit, and he refuses to explain it. I dislike policy lynches, especially ones on competent players.

He offers no explanation for his reads, there is nothing in his play to suggest an explanation for those reads, and there is nothing from those players suggesting those reads IMO. If this were the only point, fair enough, but it's part of a whole constellation of bad.

Alsoalso is a joke because I already started a sentence with "also" in the previous sentence. The point is that there are tons of little things to tack on.

Low activity is scummy. Having low activity and calling out others for having low activity is even scummier. Doublewin!

The MPR fixation also fits into his bad scumlist, since MPR is on it. Makes it look more like a weak bus and less like some kind of pro-town connection. This is actually the weakest point IMO, since positing D1 scum connections is sort of naughty.

[Iecerint]

I think you're scummier than Jack in that whole scenario, difficult as that was to achieve on your part, and the fact that he voted you when he did (i.e. after you refused/couldn't explain the scummy bit) was kinda suggestive of that having been the intention behind his actions. But I don't really trust Jack, either.

You could do that as town, sure. But the action ITSELF should be seen as scummy, even if other stuff outweighs it for whatever reason.

The last is @ PZ.

[Iecerint]

Secret towntell on Jack, unless he wants to correct me.

I agree with his take on xvart's post, but I want to reread him before I do that.

Unvote; Vote: Cyberbob

, since Jack's situation clarifies things there.

[Iecerint]

Secret towntell is secret. As for its effect, I no longer think Jack is probable scum, so his role in the mess involving you is clearer and no longer scummy. Before, I had problems interpreting his behavior.

[Iecerint]

^ OMGUS + adhom ftw

[Iecerint]

Ad hom is you saying that I can't read and I can't write. It is also you saying that Cobalt is bad at this game/terrible at mafia.

OMGUS is...okay, well, I guess it wasn't LITERALLY an OMGUS post. Fair enough. I read it that way because you posted purely rhetorical Cobalt-directed attacks as soon as he attacked you, and you're voting him, but I suppose you didn't explicitly say that he was scummy. But on the other hand, if you didn't mean that he was scummy, why are you voting him, etc.

[Iecerint]

Lack of asking for a claim is a dead giveaway, nice try though, Jack.

Why did you post this?

FoS: SPS

.

Vote Count 16: Lynch

Starbuck - 1 - PaltryExcuse
xvart -

5

- Budja, Kmd4390, FeFiFoFum, Anon, Jack
Anon - 1 - Elscouta
xofelf - 4 - SensFan, Drippereth, Papa Zito, xvart
Jack - 4 - SpyreX, curiouskarmadog, Steam-Powered Shovel, Elmocrates
Cyberbob - 2 - Cobalt, Iecerint
Papa Zito - 1 - ooba
Cobalt - 2 - Cyberbob, Starbuck
Steam-Powered Shovel - 1 - farside22
FeFiFoFum - 1 - J-Scope
Iecerint - 1 - SocioPath

Not Voting (2): MehPlusRawr, xofelf

With 25 players alive it'll take 13 to lynch and 13 to no-Lynch.

There are no players in the

Halls of Mandos

, so right now there are no

Revive

or

Destroy

counts.

[Iecerint]

No, you were not. Not until after it was confirmed as a fake daykill at the earliest. Town has no reason to do so; scum wants to alert their scumfriends of what's going on.

If you'd gone so far as to do that before CB had posted, I'd have voted you outright.

[Iecerint]

Is it true that it is poor play for scum to react to a fake daykill? Yep. Does that mean that it is not scummy to react to a fake daykill prematurely (since scum "shouldn't" react)? No, it is still scummy. That is the same logical error I think 'crates was making when he wrote off Jack's behavior prematurely.

Your outburst is anti-town at best, but you appear aware of the value of evaluating reactions that result from a fake daykill, so the likelihood of that explanation is less than the general case IMO.

[Iecerint]

I wanted to wait for confirmation from Plum before I posted this. It's a little outdated, but it may address some of SX's concerns:

My understanding of Jack is not meta-derived. At worst, Jack posted it so I would think he was town, but that is WIFOM and not the default interpretation of his behavior IMO. His rhetoric just after posting it ("WHY WOULD SCUM DO THAT") is still slightly scummy, maybe, but I'm inclined to think it was a failed attempt to defuse the situation, and other rhetorical avenues really would not have been as feasible or profitable AFAIK.

Basically, I now know why he posted the very first bit, and said reason was not scummy. Slightly pro-town if anything. Cannot elaborate further.

If Jackwagon scum exist, my guess is CKD or SPS.

[Iecerint]

Point of announcing it is that I had thought that Jack was scum, and now I think he is town. Also, other people (SX) think Jack is scum for similar reasons, so giving that information may help them evaluate his behavior. In other words, the point of announcing it is not different from the point of announcing any other read-related information.

How do you think I should have dealt with that issue?

[Iecerint]

It might change people's minds, or it might at least influence them, or it might not. Or it might just provide information for others to analyze given a flip. Its function is not different from any other sort of tell AFAIK. Failing to mention it is bad because those functions are no longer served.

A "secret towntell/scumtell" is a valid tell that cannot be elaborated on because of the rules of the board. In other words, it's not necessarily something specific to a recent post of Jack's. (Or are you saying I should lie about the cause of the read change? This is a serious question, not rhetorical.)

Pointing out that a daykill is fake makes scum less tense and less likely to slip up. Town have no reason to point it out prematurely whatsoever.

[Iecerint]

There's nothing anti-town or scummy about faking a daykill AFAIK. Why do you think it's anti-town/scummy?

[Iecerint]

"Reactions" is a legitimate reason to do something so long as (unlike, say, lampshading cop crumbs) that something isn't anti-town or scummy. I've seen players claim scum after faked daykills (cf. Lazy Neighborhood mafia's D1 lynch.).

[Iecerint]

(EBWOP: Is an extreme example, but it addresses your implicit thesis that no one takes daykills seriously, so they are not useful to gauge reactions.)

[Iecerint]

^ Yes, it is possible for scum to fake a daykill to "look town." That does not mean that faking a daykill is anti-town or scummy, which is what SX is implying.

[Iecerint]

OMGUS at Budja and Cobalt and "rhetorical" expression of a desire for the cop crumb to be made explicit. He said it wasn't OMGUS because he had valid reasons for his suspicious (fence-sitting and lurking, IIRC, and he backtracked on the former). I don't think he ever explained the latter.

He also said I couldn't read.

My favorite lynches are CB and SPS.

Drip, who do you mean by "VI"? MPR?

[Iecerint]

I replaced lurkerXofelf in the only game I shared with her. So. If she's not just always a lurker, please inform me of the fact.

Other than that, I don't see the case.

[Iecerint]

Gotcha. I just couldn't tell if she meant [MPR = VI = town] or [(MPR = town) & (VI = MYSTERY MAN = town)].

@ CB, use this to search. It looks like she hasn't been posting elsewhere. It's sometimes a bit behind, though.

[Iecerint]

Uwa, this is crazy.

@ J, yeah, I replaced xofelf in Twilight D2 when she'd made like 4 posts or something really absurd like that. We were town (VT).

Thread needs xofelf to come post.

Hi @ Nacho.

[Iecerint]

Something about Jack just doesn't seem right. Something about the way he posts seems a little off to me. I don't know if it's just how he always is, or just my reaction to him as i've never played with him before. Just there's something i can't quite put my finger on.

About Jack, i think it's the way he posts as if he's a bystander rather than actually playing. I don't understand why, but that's pushing my scum button slightly. FoS: Jack

These are your prior statements about Jack. Is this what you were thinking of when you mentioned reasons you listed? What makes Jack a "bystander?"

As for everything else... O.o

[Iecerint]

Still keeping an eye out for xofelf's response/moar.

It looks like CB's not happening.

Unvote; Vote: SPS

.

[Iecerint]

(^ He answers that question in 581.)

[Iecerint]

I call it an answer to your question. Did you just mean it rhetorically?

[Iecerint]

I think he's not counting the game in question because it was mod-abandoned (hence, not "completed"). Which, while not quite a lie, is kinda sketchy use of language IMO.

On the other hand, it's also true that he didn't post much in that game, so it's also true that he had reason to believe xofelf couldn't have a meta based on that game.

Correct me if I'm wrong about any of that.

[Iecerint]

SF, I address that issue in the subsequent sentence (i.e. right after your quote cuts off).

I'd personally forgotten Jack's point. Even if she ultimately got the roles, though, it's still plausible that SF would doubt she could derive a meta from 10 posts (not to mention that SF could plausibly not know she PM'd the mod to get the roles).

Vote Count 24: Lynch

xvart - 3 - Kmd4390, FeFiFoFum, Anon
xofelf -

8

- SensFan, Papa Zito, xvart, SpyreX, Cobalt, Cyberbob, ooba, Steam-Powered Shovel
Jack - 1 - curiouskarmadog,
Cobalt - 1 - Starbuck
Steam-Powered Shovel - 7 - farside22, SocioPath, MehPlusRawr, Drippereth, Jack, Iecerint, Budja,
FeFiFoFum - 1 - J-Scope
Ooba - 1 - Elmocrates
Drippereth - 1 - Elscouta
Elscouta - 1 - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (1): xofelf,

With 25 players alive it'll take 13 to lynch and 13 to no-Lynch.

There are no players in the

Halls of Mandos

, so right now there are no

Revive

or

Destroy

counts.

[Iecerint]

CB got me off-track IIRC. I guess it's a little odd that PZ didn't answer me outright in retrospect.

[Iecerint]

So, on the subject of offensemodeXofelf, what did you mean by calling Jack a "bystander"? Do you still think he's a bystander?

[Iecerint]

Haha, I knew someone would say that to me

Okay I liked the Xvart train better than the xtalt

...

O.o

^^;

[Iecerint]

Having just reread him in iso: he comes out of RVS by joining the unexplained policy lynch on SF. Then he benchsits through the first part of the game. Joins the wagon on Jack without providing reasoning. Pulls meta defense to address questions related to his behavior. Then he lampshades Jack's fake daykill on you. In short, his behavior has ranged from vacuous to anti-town (at best) all game

In contrast, xo's behavior is vacuous without being as transparently anti-town, or that's what it seemed like until her recent I-dare-you-to-lynch-me posts. Then FFFF showed up and wanted to join the competition, too. <_<

[Iecerint]

I'll vote xofelf before deadline to contribute to the lynch.

[Iecerint]

^ That's one beyond the lynch AFAIK.

[Iecerint]

Revive: farside
Destroy: xofelf
Vote: J-Scope

.

I'll support FFFF in the short term until/unless it becomes clear there's nothing there. SX brings up a good point on possible interesting play choices from Elfscum, but I don't think that's the default interpretation at present.

[Iecerint]

I think J-Scope's claimed "confusion" indicates he is probably the scum that targeted farside. If he had innocently targeted farside, he would have understood the basis of FFFF's claim, but disputed his interpretation.

Preview edit: only one player targeting him makes this even clearer

[Iecerint]

Wow, now things are totally insane.

Unvote

.

J, what's not genuine about that? I was operating on the assumption that scum wouldn't put themselves into a 1/1 with town.

Let me see if this is all correct:

FFFF watched Farside and found that J-Scope targeted him ONLY. He later amended that he watchtrack'd Farside via Silmaril and found that J-Scope was implicated ONLY.

ooba also watched Farside and found that no one was targeting Farside.

J-Scope targeted Jack. Jack's information is consistent with that.

Positing that everyone were town, this would mean:
1. farside targeted J-Scope (we can learn about this after she's revived)
2. FFFF targeted farside
3. ooba targeted farside
4. J-Scope targeted Jack
5. farside died without being targeted OR farside was delay-killed

However, this is impossible, because both FFFF and ooba have reported that they targeted farside last night AND that the other player didn't target farside last night. There is no reason to believe that they couldn't see the other watcher. So I think at least one of FFFF and ooba has to be lying. The more likely liar is FFFF on the basis of his claim having to be amended (why not just claim trackerwatcher up-front? or, knowing that you're a trackerwatcher, why accuse J-Scope on the basis of a positive result?).

Vote: FFFF

.

[Iecerint]

Ooba's circumstance is not impossible, but it nonetheless would indicate that FFFF is scum, so I don't think it changes what we should do.

[Iecerint]

I didn't claim trackerwatcher upfront because I didn't want people to know that I have the silmaril which They get if they kill me unless im lynched.

That still doesn't make sense, because it sounds like (right?) your information didn't specify whether J-Scope was targeted or targeting. (I assume this because, if it did so, you would not have accused J-Scope, since you would have known he did not target farside.) So your Silmaril'd ability is arguably less powerful than your Silmaril-less ability (i.e. it increases the volume of information while decreasing what you know about it). In other words, there's no reason to believe that your hypothetical Silmaril-enhanced ability couldn't just be your normal ability, so you could have presented it as such.

And, assuming again that you didn't get tracker/tracked information, this also doesn't address why you'd frame your information as a guilty on J-Scope.

[Iecerint]

Aren't there three Silmarils such that CCing would pretty much be useless?

(Since when are protective roles not in large themes?)

Vote Count 2 - 07: Lynch

Nachomamma8 - 1 - Jack
J-Scope - 4 - Budja, SpyreX, Cobalt, Starbuck
FeFiFoFum -

8

- J-Scope, curiouskarmadog, Steam-Powered Shovel, Elscouta, MehPlusRawr, Iecerint, ooba, SocioPath
Elscouta - 2 - Cyberbob, FeFiFoFum

Not Voting (7): Drippereth, Papa Zito, xvart, Anon, Nachomamma8, SensFan, Kmd4390

With 22 players alive it'll take 12 to lynch and 11 to no-Lynch.

[Iecerint]

Ah, OK.

I think there's already enough of an implicit contradiction in the existing claims that a Silmaril CC is unnecessary.

[Iecerint]

lolwat.

Jack, does he often do this sort of thing?

[Iecerint]

FFFF originally just claimed "information" on J. He then escalated his explanation piece by piece as people requested more details. He was probably originally hoping to backpedal out of it with the soft information claim.

If someone who isn't Jack can answer my question, that'd be fine, too.

[Iecerint]

Destroy: FFFF
Revive: J-Scope
Vote: xvart

While it's true that xvart was apparently gone for the past several days, he nonetheless posted decent content in his other games during this game's D2. He chose those games over this one for some reason. His decision reflects poorly on his alignment in this game IMO. I'd encourage players to review the posts with msutils, because I think their content is not irrelevant to this analysis.

[Iecerint]

It's based on introspection. I personally have a habit of (barring special circumstances) avoiding my scumgames relative to my towngames. (I also ignore VT games relatively more, but your posts imply that that does not parsimoniously explain your behavior IMO.)

I'm not disputing that you posted relatively few times, or that your lack of access was legitimate. I'm pointing out that your time management choices reflect poorly on your alignment.

[Iecerint]

Yep, I think it's appropriate. My assumption is that most players tend to have that tendency. Are you saying that you do not have that tendency?

I don't have to make the other assumption at all, though I grant that that information would be helpful.

SP, what game are you talking about?

[Iecerint]

I know that I normally save my big catch up games until later, especially if I am at work.

That's a possibility, but you'll note that he didn't voice as much; he also didn't dispute the accuracy of my assumption, even if he attacked it for being an "assumption." For that matter, what do you have against assumptions? O.o

(It's a bit wrong of you to provide excuses for him prematurely, too. )

There's also the matter of the content of his posts, but I can't allude to those beyond acknowledging their existence without breaking site rules AFAIK. <_<

[Iecerint]

This game.

You're comparing this to an RVS vote based on your being late to confirm? Huh?

@ CB, if your criticism is that I'm not in keeping with the spirit of the game ("invasive"), well, that's fine, but it doesn't affect the validity of my observation. Regarding the other ("presumptuous speculation"), the only lynch we have to analyze is xofelf's; there's not much information out there. Couple x's D1 business with avoiding this game in favor of others, and I think it's worth a vote.

[Iecerint]

Apparently, you didn't notice that I think his absence for an entire day warrants suspicion.

If you don't think his posting pattern is scummy, why would it warrant suspicion? Do you think he's lying about visiting his sister altogether?

You pointed out that people might put off large games. This is problematic, because x hadn't yet provided specific excuses for having posted in other games rather than this one when he got a chance. (This is functionally the same tell as "active lurking.")

You have to make some assumptions to get anywhere in this game.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: Second CKD's point. I wish he'd asked them instead of giving away the punchline, though.

[Iecerint]

Starbuck, what specifically are you disputing?

x, those two points are equally troubling in my view. They're scummy for the same reason that active lurking is scummy. The town response to my criticism would have been something like what Starbuck mentioned -- that you put this one off because it's a Large rather than a Mini. Since you didn't give it immediately and SB has jumped the gun, I agree that there's little use in bothering with the issue at this point.

[Iecerint]

My definition of "active lurking" is not posting in one game while posting in other games. I agree that that is what xvart has done. I didn't use that phrase specifically at first because the circumstances are a little different ("active lurking" tends to imply that the preferential treatment of games takes place over an extended period of time, whereas this case refers to preferential treatment in 2 specific short-term instances).

In other words, I think his behavior is functionally equivalent to active lurking, and I agree that that is the scummy part.

[Iecerint]

My recollection is that he posted in other games just before his V/LA, and he posted in other games just after his V/LA. He didn't post in this game immediately before the V/LA, and he didn't post in this game immediately after the V/LA (well, he says he was cut off by the thread closing, which is plausible, but he appears to have had a 1.5 hour window). Those are the two instances I'm referring to. Specifically, I'm talking about the 16th and then the 18th. Display the results as "posts" to see what I mean.

[Iecerint]

Your V/LA was the 16th through the 18th, right?

The thread opened on the 15th. You were perfectly able to post on the 16th, which is when you posted in the Newbie game you've indicated. That's instance 1.

I thought you'd last posted 1.5 hours before Plum's post where this thread was locked. That gave you adequate time to post IMO. My mistake if it was actually 10 minutes before. Still, you came here later than other games. But if 10-minutes-before checks out, that does weaken the other point a little. There's still the point that you saved this game for last, though.

Kmd, read Jack's post. He never actually voted to revive J, but he did passively list that J was the one to revive. Why he never bothered to outright revive him is anyone's guess, though.

[Iecerint]

@ Jack

[Iecerint]

^ We could get a full modkill on FFFF, and functionally pick up an extra reveal.

[Iecerint]

SP's metatell is not a very reliable one IMO. Analogizing my treatment of xvart's play with an old RVS vote (granted, one that I stuck with for awhile and become a Game Event, if only because a) SP took forever to respond to it and b) it was all self-conscious early-game distancing, anyway) is sort of a stretch. Also, I don't think I knew SP was V/LA at the time I made the RVS "case" on him, so that's another reason why the analogy is kinda tenuous.

I liked SPS as scum until yesterday; his response to that situation mirrored mine, at least. It's harder to interpret that well until we know FFFF's alignment, though. I could support an SPS lynch if no one likes xvart.

[Iecerint]

That "gem" post is just a prod request on you. In fact, I specifically indicated that your absence was not scummy in that game ("have noticed the same thing elsewhere on the site"). I did attack you earlier that day in that game, but it was (legitimately IMO) based on your bad case on Vaya. Also, you were SKscum in that game, anyway, so that's a bad example of scumIec being mean to poor, busy townies, anyway.

If you want an "anatomy of a scumplay" from Fables, I voted scumfriendSP on bogus grounds to distance while actively discrediting townKpaca with more serious arguments.

Apart from superficial similarities (like "activity was a tell"), the analogy is inappropriate. I think xvart's play, including the circumstances bookending his V/LA, has been anti-town to scummy, so I'm voting him.

[Iecerint]

I personally like top-of-page Vote Counts, but I think I'm in the minority.

THIS GAME IS SO CONFUSING. What happened to the SPS wagon? I liked that wagon...

Uhm, what's the case on Iece again?

It's not like you're busy voting someone else. Vote for SPS if you think he's the scummiest.

Since you're the second to ask and no one really responded (I think SP's response was mostly a response to my point that his metatell was bogus), the case on me is that my case on xvart is not very good, because it is variously a) against the spirit of the game and/or b) too presumptuous. I think the former is a silly reason to vote someone and the latter is based more on the poor word choice in my first few posts than the argument itself.

[Iecerint]

My role must have a hidden effect where no one will take me seriously.

Scummy D1 + avoiding the game + failure to explain avoiding the game + failure to address the issue at all other than to call it "bogus" => xvart wagon needed.

I'm happy that someone (farside) FINALLY started to come around on CB, even if for different reasons.

[Iecerint]

^ Hmm. Is MPR supposed to be a non-voter?

No, I'm just really good at screwing up votecounts, especially when everyone pines for in-the-middle-of-the-page counts . Fixing that now.

[Iecerint]

1. For the millionth time, I was scum with you in "the other game." This "SP, victimized crusader against evil!" tone doesn't make any sense, and it's a bit irrelevant AFAIK.

2. I don't think you've ever played with me before as town (?). Yeah, I use meta to my advantage where possible as scum. That doesn't mean that "Iec using meta" is a scumtell, though, because I use meta to my advantage as town, too. If you have a problem with my interpretation of xvart's play bookending his V/LA, you should state that instead of arguing that "Iec using meta" is a scumtell, which is what it looks like you're doing.

[Iecerint]

I don't think you've ever played with me before as town (?).

Please clarify.

Our only finished games together are OS and Fables IIRC. I was scum in both of them.

(It's also true that I've never finished a game with you as town, since you were SK and scum in them, respectively.)

[Iecerint]

Extra FStown information isn't really surprising. Budjatown doesn't implicate anyone apart from FS AFAIK, which is no good. So. Too bad.

Did anyone follow FS's Budja suspicion?

[Iecerint]

Looks like xvart and CB did. Can we kill one of them, please?

[Iecerint]

Here's my D1 summary of the case on SPS. CB asked for elaboration from this from SPSwagoners several times, but no one has given it AFAIK:

Having just reread him in iso: he comes out of RVS by joining the unexplained policy lynch on SF. Then he benchsits through the first part of the game. Joins the wagon on Jack without providing reasoning. Pulls meta defense to address questions related to his behavior. Then he lampshades Jack's fake daykill on you. In short, his behavior has ranged from vacuous to anti-town (at best) all game

[Iecerint]

How reliable is your secret scumtell on SPS? Do you foresee being able to share it at some point during the course of the game?

[Iecerint]

That would mean that one of Ice/Jack is scum.

Why's that? You said it earlier, too, but I didn't understand.

[Iecerint]

K, is plausible. Jack had just played really anti-town, though, related secret towntells notwithstanding.

I'd go for SP over Jack for scum given Budjatown and your assumption. I think his bad metatell on me is scummier than anything Jack's done. It's true that he hasn't played with townIec, though, so it could have been an honest mistake. 's why xvart or CB are better IMO.

[Iecerint]

Ah, SF. We hardly knew ye.

[Iecerint]

I don't understand your first question. I voted for FFFF because I thought he was caughtscum. Do you disagree? If so, why did you vote to destroy him?

IIRC, I'm referencing the exchange between CB and Budja on the same page as the post you're quoting from. Read the post in context if it doesn't make sense to you.

I'm talking about Cobalt's unexplained (by him) vote for CB a few pages prior. Budja pulled an "Oh, it looks like Cobalt voted CB because of XXX" moment, which annoyed me because Cobalt couldn't explain it himself, but Cobalt didn't object to the explanation, and the listed reason for voting was OK IIRC, so that's the point I was alluding to.

Your take on my exchange with CB doesn't make sense to me. Suppose I have 10 reasons that someone is scum. I list them. He explains away 5. That doesn't mean I think whoever is town; it just means I have 5 fewer reasons to think he's scum (if I accept his explanations). Even at a more basic level, your implicit notion that acknowledging explanations is discarding the suspicion does not follow.

PZ was responsible for the RVS policy lynch on SF because he described it that way. Read his very first iso post. This is another question of yours I don't really understand. It's like you're randomly quoting me and blithely adding "why."

I have literally posted and reposted my reasons for voting SPS, most recently on the previous page (page 44). I think I may in fact be the only player (other than MPR) to spell-out why SPS was scummy.

No idea what the "claims that jscops confusion indicating" sentence is supposed to mean.

I'm not discounting SX's secret scumtell. I'm asking him for more information about it. For example, I can't tell you the specifics of the secret towntell on Jack, but I can tell you that I'm reasonably satisfied with it without breaking site rules. If he had claimed like 90% certainly on a secret scumtell, I might have seen that as worth supporting.

What's the difference between "scum looking for scum" and "town looking for scum"? I don't even know much of what to look for. DGB won for town the only two-scumteam game I've played by intense VC analysis, but we don't really have those to play with atm.

[Iecerint]

SPS case from D1 by way of my repost on the previous page. Context of the D1 post is a comparison between SPS and xofelf:

Here's my D1 summary of the case on SPS. CB asked for elaboration from this from SPSwagoners several times, but no one has given it AFAIK:

Having just reread him in iso: he comes out of RVS by joining the unexplained policy lynch on SF. Then he benchsits through the first part of the game. Joins the wagon on Jack without providing reasoning. Pulls meta defense to address questions related to his behavior. Then he lampshades Jack's fake daykill on you. In short, his behavior has ranged from vacuous to anti-town (at best) all game

Scum confirm later than town on average to extend pre-game talk. FFFF being chosen out of those who hadn't confirmed was just random, though. The important thing was to check back and see whether there was evidence that any of those players were active-lurking past confirmation, but there wasn't evidence of that for anyone except ooba, who said he hadn't known the game had started.

PZ's policy wagon on SFlasted ages, IIRC -- way past "real" RVS. I think I should have an iso post a few posts after the PZ vote that clarifies my reads.

[Iecerint]

What's the case on SPS beyond the one I listed D1?

[Iecerint]

I believe Anon's voting xvart.

[Iecerint]

I didn't go into why I thought they were scummy because I thought CB/Jack/PZ should be our focus by then. At the time, the SPS stuff was ancient history from before Jack's I SEE A COP CRUMB and the fallout from that.

I can't remember all the specific differences I had in mind back then, but, namely, I remember SPS's "I feel like wagoning, but all the wagons are dumb " comment really rubbing me the wrong way, but MPR claimed it was a scummy post because he abandoned the RVSwagon on SF, which MPR had prior criticized SPS for supporting. If SPS's scummy for supporting it and scummy for abandoning it, what the hell's a guy to do? Rather, it looked scummy to me because it looked like SPS was without a motivation to scumhunt. It also bothered me that MPR mischaracterized PZ's SF wagon as an RVS wagon, whereas it was actually a policy lynch (scummier to stick with something like that IMO). I also didn't like that SPS singled-out the Elswagon as a bad one.

I don't understand your next question. IIRC, I thought the scummiest/most opportunistic Jack voters were CKD and SPS. (I think I thought CKD was particularly bad because he joined Jackwagon while supporting sketchyCB once people were saying they found CB town. SPS was due to relatively poor reasoning for the switch + lackluster play elsewhere.) Other players expressed their reasons for voting more clearly IIRC. On the other hand, I personally thought Jack's rhetoric after SX asked him what was up -- "would scum be this anti-town?" -- was worth a vote, so I didn't know for sure that there were scum on the wagon. Does that answer your question?

I wanted to lynch CB D1. SPS just beat xofelf. Oddly, I think I came the closest to providing a case on SPS in spite of preferring other lynches.

I guess MPR's SPS post indicates him, and SP just claimed he listed his reasons for SPS somewhere, though I have no recollection of anything like that myself. O.o

[Iecerint]

Uh, how am I ignoring SPS? I'm pointing out that PZ is responsible for the same wagon that had already made me look twice at SPS. Then I list problems with PZ's recent post.

[Iecerint]

Is SF V/LA or something? He hasn't posted since his "catching up now" post on April 21st.

[Iecerint]

Reason for the "if" statement is in like the very next sentence from the same paragraph you quoted from. I thought Jack had done something deserving a vote, so I wasn't going to bend over backwards attacking players who voted him for it.

CBwagon was never sketchy. CBplayer was sketchy. CKD was like "Vote: Jack. CB is town." just after some other people had done something similar.

[Iecerint]

Wiki indicates that Beren and Luthien talk to Mandos, so I think it's a plausible role in that sense. Are there any other in-universe characters that might share Mandos's power over the HoM? That's the only way I could see it as some kind of fakeclaim.

[Iecerint]

That's a good point, but why wouldn't he have already blocked (for example) farside's revival? I guess they could be Sons of Feanor together (SPS mentioned them offhand earlier almost out of nowhere IIRC, which could possibly indicate inside knowledge), but I don't know why SoF would control that mechanic flavor-wise, and that's positing a lot of unknowns.

I guess the flavor could be a red herring, but ye know. That wouldn't be very satisfying.

[Iecerint]

I'm saying that your failure to stop the farside revival would make sense if you were Elfscum together. We know that farside is an elf. Your knowledge of the SoF is just a bonus. I've never read the Silmarillion, but I can take your word for it that they figure prominently in the story.

Preview edit: I'll be back before deadline to prevent NL, I guess. I totally didn't notice deadline.

[Iecerint]

What about that quote do you object to, other than the fact that it implicates you iff SPS goes to HoM upon death?

[Iecerint]

It's an unnecessary gambit to let NK'd town revive when you can stop it anonymously. Also, I thought you thought SPS was fakeclaiming (assuming safeclaim=fakeclaim)?

[Iecerint]

I was thinking that he wouldn't fakeclaim something confirmable. It's true that because of deadline ultimately being in 3 hours, that isn't as good a heuristic as usual (he'd last an extra day), but I doubt that was on his mind, if only because I'd forgotten about it.

I suppose there's always the chance of claiming roleblock to save him.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: Actually, he'd last just as long, so it's an equally lame thing to totally fakeclaim. 's still infinite roleblock claims, I guess, though scum probably wouldn't want to stop the stopping of the typical revivals, anyway, so it'd be hard to believe.

[Iecerint]

Um, no? He could (hypothetically) stop your revival anonymously, so scumSPS could keep you dead with impunity.

scumSPS with a one-shot rather than unlimited block would make more sense; I'll buy that much. There are only 2 SoF in the story from what I understand, though, so their being relatively OP would fit.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: OK, farside could conceivably not be elfscum if SoF HoM'd deadSPS is overstating the quantity but correctly stating the quality of his power. I gotcha there now. Maybe the other is when he's Silmaril'd.

Unvote: Vote: SPS

. I'm going to eat soon, and I'm not sure when I'll be back.

[Iecerint]

@ Jack, "if SPS dies and ends up in the Hall of Mandos because he is lying about being a Vanir and is actually Elfscum hence by flavor a Son of Feanor."

[Iecerint]

Fun fact: that's the first time CKD has typed my name in any of its permutations (iec, ice, icerint, iecerint, icerink, yerkrint) all game. Neat, right?

Officially off for pizza. I will be very annoyed if we No Lynch.

[Iecerint]

Destroy: SPS
Vote: CKD

SPS claimed Ainur and went to the Halls of Mandos. Since only Elves go there, he was a fakeclaiming Elf, so he is almost certainly Elfscum.

Owing to the small number of kills, and the fact that the kill on SF is reasonably town-derived, it would not surprise me if SPS's buddy was one of Elscouta, Nacho, and Drip. I'm not sure we should revive any of them.

CKD distanced from the SPS wagon in the most obvious fashion; he voted me, saying my wagon was better, even though he had never even so much as mentioned my name all game. He's probably on the other scumteam and wanted to inoculate himself against a perceived townwagon.

[Iecerint]

Mandos is an Ainur.

Budja, two Sons of Feanor figure prominently in the novel based on SPS's claim and text on the wiki -- Celegorm the Fair and Curufin the Crafty. They are the most plausible Elfscumteam AFAIK.

[Iecerint]

@ Iec, you think that if SPS was scum, he had been at -1 for so long, AND as far as we know we have not gotten 1 scum yet, that I (as scum) would not have jumped on that wagon earlier...or hammer? WIFOM aside, that is bullshit...this is an OMGUS vote.

1. We know SPS was scum to the extent that it is possible to know that before they flip.
2. I don't think you were scum WITH SPS, though I considered it slightly before the flips this morning. I think the scum with him is dead, too. I think you're on the other team. The reason I think that is:

A) You played "distance from the inevitable wagon," even endangering it in the process, but only when deadline was at hand. Townies don't risk NL like that. Scum have an added incentive to stay off inevitable perceived townwagons.
B) Your alternawagon was a player you'd never spoken about all game. You transparently voted me because I had the second-largest wagon.

You're also whining about 2 votes, which just reflects more poorly on you.

[Iecerint]

4 N2 kills + flavor + SPS's assertion that two teams existed + his defensiveness when someone asked how he knew there were 2 teams, namely.

Do you think it's plausible that there aren't 2 teams somehow?

[Iecerint]

It's true that we went 2 -> 4 -> 1, but even assuming vig + lovers for N2, that can't account for all the kills that day. I guess there could be an SK for the extra, but I think it's simpler that Sauron's people are a team on flavor grounds. (And even if we're looking for an SK rather than another scumgroup, CKD is still a plausible candidate for the same reasons that he is a plausible other-scumteam candidate.)

[Iecerint]

So it looks like CKD's defense goes like this:

1. CKD is 2SCUM4SCUM, ergo town.
2. We will regret wagoning CKD because he is a PR or something, but he dares us to wagon him, anyway.

More votes, please.

[Iecerint]

Cyberbob?

Still town.

I was going to say I was thrilled that people were finally coming around on him. Don't rain on my parade.

SpyreX seems suspiciously townie. He is basically trying to look town! So he is scum, since only scum has to look town and it comes perfectly naturally to real town players.

Is craplogic because you can lazily make this argument about almost any town player in any game. Note that it's not 2TOWN4TOWN if there's a specific difference between town and townscum play indicated.

"So I did something scummy, so what? Do you think that scum would REALLY do something that scummy? It would get them lynched!"

This was CKD's response to my case. He said his avoidance of the SPS wagon in favor of a wagon on a player he'd never mentioned all game actually made him townier, since scum would never do something so scummy. But that's bullshit for obvious reasons.

SPSwagon worked out well on a secret scumtell, and CB's post makes me feel good about this one.

Unvote; Vote: Anon

. CKD can wait, I guess. Or be shot.

[Iecerint]

Why is xvart linked to Els? If Els is scum (likely), it would appear that he is Elfscum with SPS.

[Iecerint]

Here is my thought process that I have sort of already expressed:

1. SPS was an elf.
2. SPS claimed Ainur.
3. SPS was a liar.
4. Scum lies.
5. SPS was a scum elf.

6. SPS's death corresponded with fewer deaths.
7. Consistent with SPS team all being dead last night.
8. SPS mentioned Sons of Feanor as a possible elf scumteam mostly out of nowhere yesterday.
9. Flavor indicates a 2-man Sons of Feanor scumteam.
10. Together, points to SPS being a Son of Feanor with an elf dead last night (Drip, Nacho, or Els).

[Iecerint]

Uh, hello? Part of the analysis indicates that SPS's scumfriends are all dead. The only point of looking at that wagon is to find people who distanced from it disproportionately due to thinking SPS would flip town (because they "knew" he was town). CKD is the obvscum based on that IMO.

[Iecerint]

1.

Well, yeah, but that's true just because of the large sample size on all wagons.

Unless SPS was lonelyscumSK, his death shouldn't have caused a drop in the kills unless his scumfriends were dead, too.

2.

OK, I see what you mean. You're evaluating it as a townwagon because SPS's team all appears to have been gone yesterday.

3. But then why do you ask your "second" question? O.o

[Iecerint]

I do think that treating SPSwagon as a townwagon for analysis purposes makes sense on the assumption that no one living yesterday appears to have known he was scum, though, even if CKD is still scummy for bizarre, 11th hour Iecwagon-joining. Not that it's likely to do much good in isolation.

If only DGB were here.

O WAIT!

[Iecerint]

Budja, two Sons of Feanor figure prominently in the novel based on SPS's claim and text on the wiki -- Celegorm the Fair and Curufin the Crafty. They are the most plausible Elfscumteam AFAIK.

I guess it's possible that the Mod may've messed with this a little in the interests of balance, though. Either way, I find it difficult to believe that the group is too large, because that would mean {SPS, Elscouta, Drip, Nacho} was majority elfscum, or that there was fortuitous use of night actions, or that living elfscum gambited by refraining from killing.

[Iecerint]

^ The first two are "fortuitous use of night actions." The last is possible, but not enough to explain what happened on its own.

Anyway, the point is that those are all low-probability events. Scum numbers matching the flavor + 1 extra dead elfscum seems parsimonious to me.

[Iecerint]

V/LA this weekend. I'm visiting family. I'll try to get a post or so in.

[Iecerint]

^ SX's secret scumtell was on SPS. Evidence suggests it was accurate.

SX said FFFF might flip town, but he wanted to lynch him, anyway, IIRC.

[Iecerint]

Checking in --

Seeing that SX has pulled back on his Anon secret scumtell,

Unvote

.

I really don't know what to make of the VT claim under no pressure from SB. That's the kind of thing I expect from DeathNote, but not her. The response to the pressure resulting from it ("how have I hurt my faction?") is similarly odd. Will watch for how it plays out.

Still, I like CKD better than SB atm, mostly because of the stuff I've already said. The quality of the content infusion after his wagon got going a little doesn't help.

Vote: CKD

.

[Iecerint]

I'm also voting CKD

.

Edited for your convenience. Someday I'll get it right; in the meantime, my (continual) apologies).

ooba, are you just reading CKD in iso? You may've missed his timing on Jackwagon D1, which I think was suspect. (I just read him again to see what you were talking about and noticed that his brevity in that bit hides the sketchiness if it's out of context.) The only day without troubling play from CKD has been D2, but that was almost autopilot for scum due to FFFF shenanigans, anyway.

I also noticed during the reread that SPS was among his favorite wagons for almost all of D1, but he nonetheless joined the never-alluded-to Iecwagon D3 in spite of SPScumwagon being the alternative.

[Iecerint]

^ Ya. Is like a Bomb AFAIK.

It makes more sense for a consensus to form around who hammers you. If you're scum, you could still be a Bomb, so it's not that your choice is immaterial if you're scum. And even if you're town, you're not any more well-equipped to judge scum than the rest of us.

[Iecerint]

I've only played with Budja where he replaced caughtscum Percy in Nouns mafia IIRC, so I dun really know how he goes, but I just glanced through his iso and don't see anything objectionable, I guess partly because I have a scum read on xvart and a town read on Jack.

You've said your CKD thing is playing with him a bit ago and the SB thing looks like it's based on her earlier play. Can you explain where the xvart thing comes from? You mention liking one of his really early posts D1 in iso, but....

[Iecerint]

So, in 62 pages, your case on me (incidentally, the player who was pushing your lynch yesterday) is pretty much based on semantics?

Jack did something that looked scummy, and he deserved votes for it. A few pages in, I realized what Jack was doing and that it WASN'T scummy (but only because of context) or even what it appeared to be. So I can't blame anyone for voting Jack, but I could note that the more opportunistic joiners were SPS and CKD. 3 days later, SPS is scum, and CKD is still scummy.

(It's worth noting that that was actually writ

before

the FoS. As I indicate in the post itself, I had had to PM Plum to ask whether it was OK to talk about the secret towntell in any detail. I wanted to go into more detail because SX was spending a lot of time worrying about Jack's Cop crumb thing, when it wasn't actually a scumtell if you understood the whole context.

This is sort of a silly point IMO, but you go so far as to point out that I'd "already" FoS'd someone on the wagon, and that's sort of not strictly true.)

[Iecerint]

NB: Kmd went from CKD to being the first vote of a non-entity wagon (xvart) 1 day before deadline with bad reasoning.

[Iecerint]

Why CKD Should Die

1. Joined Jackwagon under the most suspicious circumstances D1. (Jack is town via my secret towntell announced D1.)
2. Even though SPS was his major suspect D1, he opted to NOT join the SPS wagon D3, but instead to vote me, even though he had NEVER so much as MENTIONED my name ALL GAME.

In other words, he pushed the alternawagon (mine) against the SPScum wagon, even though his rhetoric had said SPS was the scum before that.

3. Way way way premature softclaim D4.
3. When suspicion on him picked up a little, he tried to establish a tangent about PZ being sort-of-odd-but-not-really-scummy.

Why CKD Should Not Die

1. ooba (probably town due to D2) has a meta towntell on him.

The bolded is the biggest scumtell IMO.

Why Iec Should Die

From xvart

1. Said that the scum on Jackwagon was CKD or SPS *IF* there were scum D1, rather than that one of those was scum 100%.
2. Also D1, said that SPS was scummy, but for reasons different than MPR had listed.

From Starbuck

3. Made "assumptions" about time management as part of his case against xvart D3.

From SP

4. Meta scumtell based on "misuse of meta."

1 is purely semantic. 2 isn't scummy. 3 is a miscommunication because I worded the case on xvart poorly the first time. 4 is because all my finished games with SP have had both of us as non-town, so he has a sampling bias thing happening.

[Iecerint]

I'll hammer if that's what people want. It's fair enough in that it was my case to start.

[Iecerint]

Unvote

.

Vote Count 4 - 19: Lynch

curiouskarmadog -

6

- Budja, Anon, Papa Zito, MehPlusRawr, SpyreX, Cyberbob
Anon - 1 - Starbuck
Iecerint - 2 - curiouskarmadog, SocioPath
Starbuck - 1 - J-Scope
Budja - 4 - ooba, farside22, xvart, Jack
xvart - 1 - Kmd4390

Not Voting (1): Cobalt, Iecerint

With 17 players alive it'll take 9 to lynch and 9 to no-Lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday May 10th at 8:26 PM Eastern Time.

[Iecerint]

The 11th hour claim race claim -> partial redaction of SS -> elaboration thing, all without an ACTUAL nameclaim doesn't sit well with me. I'll hammer before deadline if Budja doesn't, I suppose.

Vote Count 4 - 20: Lynch

curiouskarmadog -

8

- Budja, Anon, Papa Zito, MehPlusRawr, SpyreX, Cyberbob, J-Scope, Kmd4390
Anon - 1 - Starbuck
Iecerint - 1 - SocioPath
Budja - 5 - ooba, farside22, xvart, Jack, curiouskarmadog

Not Voting (2): Cobalt, Iecerint

With 17 players alive it'll take 9 to lynch and 9 to no-Lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday May 10th at 8:26 PM Eastern Time.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, you said you didn't have the Silmaril, and hence aren't an SS. "Or are you," etc. That's a redaction.

Whether it's incidentally a genius redaction that maximizes information given your flip is yet to be seen, but that the pattern of ebb and flow in your claim sort of matches when other players said TOO STRONG or LIAR THIS IS BULLSHIT looks bad.

Also, there's already been a Servant of Thingol (xofelf). You're another one?

[Iecerint]

He's an Elf, "Servant of Thingol" (same as xofelf, but presumably a different servant).

[Iecerint]

I have evidence on J-scope that is all I have to say about that one..

uhhhh...what?...if you have something to go on...this needs to be addressed.

revive: farside.

This is CKD's first post (D2) after xofelf claimed. He doesn't even vote to destroy her in spite of her having claimed the same role as him.

[Iecerint]

I'm waiting because CKD told me to wait and let Budja hammer, and everyone seems pretty ambivalent about that, anyway.

Don't worry; I'm watching the clock. ~40 minutes left.

[Iecerint]

Hmm. It looks like he responded to FFFF's "I have the Silmaril claim" in a way that fits someone with it. He said he didn't believe it and that FFFF risked bringing out the real Silmaril-holder.

Can't find the SS crumb, though, unless it's the bit where farside is "super popular" for being targeted by everyone N1.

[Iecerint]

Ah well, I'm tired of sitting here. I have Physiology to study for.

Vote: CKD

[Iecerint]

If you really crumbed SS ages ago, that would support that you have that as part of your PM/fakeclaim, regardless of whether you currently have the Silmaril. It's just another piece of the puzzle. (For example, it would be less likely that PZ pulled it out of the air as a gift to you, etc.)

Show us the crumb before lynchscene if it exists, please.

[Iecerint]

SPS is the most obvscum evar.

[Iecerint]

Revive: ooba
Destroy: CKD

SPS flipping Kinslayers means that 2 scumElves is no longer any more likely than anything else. While the Kinslayers are the same as the Sons of Feanor IIRC, it looks like they're not necessarily based on the 2 featured most prominently in flavor per se.

Going back to number of kills, we had only one kill after SPS and Drip+Nacho+Els were in HoM, but we picked up a kill after we revived Drip. Failing yet-another pro-town 1-shot vig or whatever, I think the Anon kill plausibly comes from Elfscum, which implicates Drip.

Vote: Drippereth

Need to read Anon in a bit.

[Iecerint]

1. If you think CKD is town, he should be your revive request, unless you're claiming info on me AND Nacho.

2. Unless town vigged Anon, you are correct that CKD is not scum with you and SPS. However, given that there are sort of a trillion elves in this game, it would be unbalanced if red scum lacked elves/HoM-able players. I still think he's scum.

I'd forgotten about that contingency, though. Els or Nacho would be OK destroys, too, since they were dead during the time of peace.

[Iecerint]

@Budja, that stuff's possible, but the chances of that happening last night (just for example) is about 0.7% per kill per doc/block. Dripscum is parsimonious. (That number assumes a 4-man scumteams and random non-scum targets, so the real probability is a little higher due to actually playing the game, but the point is that those kind of events are rare.)

[Iecerint]

J-Scope is a PR via the Jack business D2. You are scum. Sounds like a good choice to me.

I didn't want to revive you yesterday for precisely that reason.

[Iecerint]

Uh. Those are really sloppy DGB-produced (because she's calling me Icerink rather than Yerk) vote analyses. Compare townDGB in KH.

[Iecerint]

^ Uh. SX, Jack, ooba, CB, and Budja are all scummier than me? And I'm "confirmed scum"?

wat.

[Iecerint]

Nah, I always have more posts than everyone. I just checked and I have 40 more than SX, for example.

[Iecerint]

1. So you're saying it's an actual algorithm? If so, show me sometime.

2. It is irresponsible at best to use incomplete vote information (as your "Iecvotelist" reflects) in an algorithm like that.

[Iecerint]

Then she is probably quantifying qualitative phenomena, and that is naughty-to-fungible, even when you are an actuary.

DGB ignoring VC analysis as town after KH would blow my mind.

[Iecerint]

I would bet money (based on you and farside being lowest on your list) that your "algorithm" doesn't account for players being ex-dead. For example, players like any living Kinslayers in the game now or later.

Just a thought.

[Iecerint]

Seriously, Drip is very very very very likely KinslayerScum based on easily-verifiable information from the kills. You don't even have to take my word for it. At the very least, revive someone other than Nacho. He's probably the other dead Kinslayer. There can't be too many of them, because Elves are sort of imba.

[Iecerint]

^ You don't think it's troubling that ***DGB*** would commit an oversight that extreme?

[Iecerint]

I'm Huan, the Great Hound of the race of Wolves. I search for Werewolves at night. Targets have been:

N1 - SPS, not a werewolf
N2 - CB, not a werewolf
N3 - xvart, not a werewolf
N4 - Budja, not a werewolf

Targeted SPS because he was the alternawagon, and he did some sketchy stuff D1. I was kinda ambivalent about him because of the werewolf result. CB was because he was my major suspect D1. Same with xvart. I thought Budja looked bad for not showing up.

With the Silmaril, I automatically kill any werewolves I successfully find.

The werewolves howled, and Huan hidden lay and growled watchful listening in the dark, waiting for battle cruel and stark. 2753

I don't know how to post images.

My guess is that DGB has some kind of racecop ability. I think this because she crumbed "IceWOLF" in an earlier post. She probably got confused and thought wolves were scum and she could cash in on it.

Vote Count 5 - 03: Lynch

Drippereth - 1 - Iecerint
Iecerint -

5

- Drippereth, SpyreX, J-Scope, Starbuck, Budja,

Not Voting (8): Kmd4390, farside22, MehPlusRawr, Papa Zito, Cyberbob, xvart, Jack, SocioPath

With 14 players alive it'll take 8 to lynch and 7 to no-lynch.

Vote Count 5 - 03: Revive

ooba - 1 - Iecerint
Nachomamma8 -

5

- Drippereth, SpyreX, J-Scope, Starbuck, Budja

Not Voting (8): Kmd4390, farside22, MehPlusRawr, Papa Zito, Cyberbob, xvart, Jack, SocioPath

With 14 players alive it'll take 8 to Revive. If a player has 8 or more votes to Revive, the choice is locked in and that player will be revived and return to the game proper when the lynch resolves.

Vote Count 5 - 03: Destroy

curiouskarmadog -

2

- Iecerint, Budja
Cobalt - 1 - SpyreX

Not Voting (11): Drippereth, Kmd4390, Starbuck, farside22, MehPlusRawr, Papa Zito, Cyberbob, xvart, Jack, SocioPath, J-Scope

With 14 players alive it'll take 8 to Destroy. If a player has 8 or more votes to Destroy, the choice is locked in and that player will be revived and return to the game proper when the lynch resolves.

[Iecerint]

Yay ~



I'm not Carcaroth. I am Huan. You are lying elfscum.

[Iecerint]

^ Um. It's clearly either my role or my fakeclaim. If it were the latter, you having information like that would require one or more of these (NB ~ they are both bullshit):

1. You somehow had a race/role-related investigation on me that you didn't bother sharing until now. (Unlikely because in fakeclaimHuan universe, I am apparently Carcaroth the werewolf who presumably eats babies and all that.)

2. Bastard mod gave me a fakeclaim that is in the game, or a fakeclaim that some players know is not in the game. (Clearly unlikely.)

Both Drip and SX are lying to get me lynched.

[Iecerint]

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE at least hedge your bets by reviving

SOMEONE WHO ISN'T NACHO.

I am

NEAR-POSITIVE

that

DGB is Elfscum

rather than suffering from early Alzheimer's disease or mental decline secondary to a fall or vascular accident.

[Iecerint]

MOAR EVIDENCE:

1. This requires knowing that I'm Huan and not Carcaroth, but DGB's ability clearly finds

race only

. So, unless she has some really Fairy Godmotheriffic tools in her skirts, the

only

information she could conceivably have on Nacho is that

Nacho is an elf

. Which we all know, anyway.

2. The only other possibility is something like confirmed elf masons at start

(LOLWAT)

, or something like elves who have to find each other via crumbs and then are confirmed (

extremely unlikely

due to PL/Nacho only having like 6 posts in the game, but I just looked and don't see anything -- and this would STILL be

TOTALLY BROKEN

).

Undestroy; Destroy: Nacho

. Lynch DGB for being obvscum, too, if you want bonus points.

[Iecerint]

The PM I got N4 was the same as the one I got N1-3. It said Budja was not a Werewolf (more flavorsomely, that his smell didn't indicate that he was a werewolf).

If you're telling the truth, the Mod just doesn't differentiate between negatives and roleblock-motivated negatives.

Preview edit: Since we know that SPS was Curufin, that takes us back to 2 elfscum as more probable for the orange team, unless there are generic "Servant of Ceregorm"-type goons.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: I meant to edit the first bit after I remembered the "Servant of X"-type roles that have already appeared in the game (e.g. assuming CKD was town given the kill number change after Drip returned, 2 Servants of Thingol were in the game).

[Iecerint]

OK, well, if that's the hammer, know that I am NOT Carcaroth; I am Huan. DGB gambited on a "Wolf" rolecop result and extrapolated too far to get me lynched. She is scum.

It is EXCELLENT that Nacho apparently won't be revived. He is almost certainly scum with her.

Jack, theory is that people aren't told whether they were roleblocked. Fits with my flavor implying that no positive evidence of werewolves was found vs. that positive evidence of innocence is found.

[Iecerint]

Nah, games I play are split 3 ways:

Universe A: Kids are told
Universe B: Kids are not told
Universe C: Kids are not told, but the Mod gives in when they whine.

But w/e.

It's highly annoying when I'd be quicklynched like that when I brought up totally legitimate reasons that DGB was lying. I hope you'll refer to them after I flip.

PUPPY POWER!~

[Iecerint]

(4) Nacho is completely and fully confirmed town. Suffice to say t's in our role PM.

I mean, come on. There are NOT mod-confirmed elves in this game. That is too dumb for words.

[Iecerint]

Sorry, DGB -- no one has to destroy me. It will be totally evident that you extrapolated your result very soon. Now would be the perfect time to retcon your result on me or start making desperate allusions to the obvious busdriver.

[Iecerint]

Yep. And not as a town werewolf named Carcaroth, either.

[Iecerint]

See? She's a racecop who noticed her mistake too late, and tried to retcon a bit into a namecop because Wolf wouldn't cut it.

This means that she is either a RACECOP ELF WITH INCONGRUOUS MOD-CONFIRMED RESULTS ON NACHO THE ELF, or she has other reasons for wanting Nacho to feel better. Figure out the parsimonious answer for yourselves.

[Iecerint]

OK, so you lied about your information because of your pure heart, lolwat w/e. Even with that, you're still a racecop who SIMULTANEOUSLY has Nacho as mod-confirmed. You are lying scumscumscumscumscum.

You may've even added in the name bit because you realized that that wouldn't fly. Knowing that you'd found Nacho to be Finrod or whoever (rather than "an Elf!") would go over with us better. Good thing you can't play that card anymore, darling. <3

IF THERE IS ONE THING I ENJOY EATING MORE THAN WEREWOLVES, IT IS ELVES. DELICIOUS~!

Also wat @ translator?

[Iecerint]

BTW DGB AND ELLI I LOVE YOU WHEN YOU ARE NOT ELFSCUM AND I HOPE WE CAN STILL BE FRIENDS.

WHEN YOUR EARS GO AWAY AND YOU GO BACK TO HAVING A FUNNY BLUE HEAD AND A NICE HAT, PERHAPS WE CAN PLAY CATCH. I WILL BRING THE TENNIS BALL.

RUFF RUFF~!

[Iecerint]

BTW Elli I like DGB a lot but I do not know if she has a boyfriend or girlfriend or spouse could you ask her for me in your QT please. I don't want her to know so please be discreet thanks.

[Iecerint]

I hope there's a QT for the dead.

[Iecerint]

A lot of the scum gave themselves away by attacking obvtown Iec.

<3

Plum, you kept telling me that you thought Anon could've made better use of the farside QT than you had anticipated. I personally can't think of an obvious usage given Anon's and farside's PMs. How did you think he should've responded to the situation?

[Iecerint]

Having read your notes QT

1. The outguess in Greek Mythology was partly a function of DeathNote being the mod. But I was also correct, ye know. Might also explain why Aphrodite got fancy flavor.

2. Yar, I knew nothing about the flavor apart from wiki stuff, which focused lots on the phlebotinum and not on the actual characters, unf.

Really fun game, raging at elves notwithstanding.

[Iecerint]

So, what was with the Huan claim, Iece?

My fakeclaim was an obscure Elf, but I hadn't really been playing like an Elf. I was too worried about dying. I didn't think anyone would believe it. So I decided to make-up my own fakeclaim in hopes of bringing out the real Huan, since I figured he was probably a PR. If I were really lucky, I thought he might be a fakeclaim for a HoM'd player.

The flavor and everything else was totally fabricaed. I was happy with how it turned out. I was a little surprised people weren't more skeptical of Drip given that it appeared he was claiming Namecop Elf Lovers, but he'd gotten my name wrong.

I thought CKD and/or Drip were Elfscum.

[Iecerint]

Oh, Jack -- what was up with the Cop claim? Was that the meta business I thought it was, or something else?

[Iecerint]

^ MPR