Lay of Leithian Mafia: Game Over!

[Anon]

I say full speed ahead on the Anon wagon.

go ahead and tell me why

Vote Count 4 - 07: Lynch

curiouskarmadog - 3 - Budja, SocioPath, Kmd4390
Anon -

5

- SpyreX, Jack, Papa Zito, Starbuck, Iecerint
Iecerint - 2 - curiouskarmadog, xvart
Cobalt - 2 - farside22, J-Scope
xvart - 1 - Anon

Not Voting (4): MehPlusRawr, Cyberbob, Cobalt, ooba

With 17 players alive it'll take 9 to lynch and 9 to no-Lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday May 10th at 8:26 Eastern Time.

[SocioPath]

I say full speed ahead on the Anon wagon.

I say this post said more than Anon's post did.

Unvote
Vote: Anon

[Anon]

Why is xvart linked to Els? If Els is scum (likely), it would appear that he is Elfscum with SPS.

what is this elfscum stuff?

[Anon]

I say full speed ahead on the Anon wagon.

I say this post said more than Anon's post did.

Unvote
Vote: Anon

i guess i wasnt that explicit on the list of people I think are town and SHOULDNT be lynched and on the list of people that I wanted incinerated on Mordor....

but hey not all people can win, right?

[Míriel Therindë]

Vote Count 4 - 08: Lynch

curiouskarmadog - 2 - Budja, Kmd4390
Anon -

6

- SpyreX, Jack, Papa Zito, Starbuck, Iecerint, SocioPath
Iecerint - 2 - curiouskarmadog, xvart
Cobalt - 2 - farside22, J-Scope
xvart - 1 - Anon

Not Voting (4): MehPlusRawr, Cyberbob, Cobalt, ooba

With 17 players alive it'll take 9 to lynch and 9 to no-Lynch.

Deadline will be Wednesday May 10th at 8:26 Eastern Time.

[Anon]

mmmm, am I too late?

Anon - 6 - SpyreX, Jack, Papa Zito, Starbuck, Iecerint, SocioPath

Starbuck is not the only scum in this group. Jack, Iec? Spy, Zito, Path how sure are you of Jack towniness. Also thoughts of Iec.

Also i just isolated CKD and total scumbag.

[Jack]

SPS definitely got enough votes, but I wonder if his destruction was blocked somehow.

[Anon]

SPS definitely got enough votes, but I wonder if his destruction was blocked somehow.

I thought we were attempting to destroy Elscouta.

[Iecerint]

Here is my thought process that I have sort of already expressed:

1. SPS was an elf.
2. SPS claimed Ainur.
3. SPS was a liar.
4. Scum lies.
5. SPS was a scum elf.

6. SPS's death corresponded with fewer deaths.
7. Consistent with SPS team all being dead last night.
8. SPS mentioned Sons of Feanor as a possible elf scumteam mostly out of nowhere yesterday.
9. Flavor indicates a 2-man Sons of Feanor scumteam.
10. Together, points to SPS being a Son of Feanor with an elf dead last night (Drip, Nacho, or Els).

[Jack]

SPS definitely got enough votes, but I wonder if his destruction was blocked somehow.

I thought we were attempting to destroy Elscouta.

It's kind of like you think saying you haven't been reading this day carefully will make people think you're town.

[Anon]

Jack, I get better with the time. Besides me, who else is scum?

Ok, I like where Iec is going.

This was the lynch wagon:

Steam-Powered Shovel - 10 - Jack, SpyreX, MehPlusRawr, Cobalt, Papa Zito, SocioPath, Anon, Iecerint, farside22, xvart

Undecided on Jack but position on the wagon is ok. Spyrextown, M+R probscum but not with Cobalt, Zitotown, pathtown, anontown, Iec just got some townie points, fartown, xvartscum.

Just based on this wagon, one of (Meh+rawr + cobalt) and xvart scumbags. CAN we please lynch xvart?

[Jack]

Starbuck
Cobalt
Budja
CyberBob

[Iecerint]

Uh, hello? Part of the analysis indicates that SPS's scumfriends are all dead. The only point of looking at that wagon is to find people who distanced from it disproportionately due to thinking SPS would flip town (because they "knew" he was town). CKD is the obvscum based on that IMO.

[Anon]

Uh, hello? Part of the analysis indicates that SPS's scumfriends are all dead. The only point of looking at that wagon is to find people who distanced from it disproportionately due to thinking SPS would flip town (because they "knew" he was town). CKD is the obvscum based on that IMO.

first, all wagons have at least one scum on them because there.is.always.at.least.one.scum.in.a.wagon.TM.

second, why in hell would SPS' scumfriends have to be dead to make this work?

and yes, ckd is also scum.

[Iecerint]

1.

Well, yeah, but that's true just because of the large sample size on all wagons.

Unless SPS was lonelyscumSK, his death shouldn't have caused a drop in the kills unless his scumfriends were dead, too.

2.

OK, I see what you mean. You're evaluating it as a townwagon because SPS's team all appears to have been gone yesterday.

3. But then why do you ask your "second" question? O.o

[Iecerint]

I do think that treating SPSwagon as a townwagon for analysis purposes makes sense on the assumption that no one living yesterday appears to have known he was scum, though, even if CKD is still scummy for bizarre, 11th hour Iecwagon-joining. Not that it's likely to do much good in isolation.

If only DGB were here.

O WAIT!

[ooba]

This game is way too fast for me ..

9. Flavor indicates a 2-man Sons of Feanor scumteam.

How does flavor indicate a 2-man scum team??
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sons_of_F%C3%ABanor

[Iecerint]

Budja, two Sons of Feanor figure prominently in the novel based on SPS's claim and text on the wiki -- Celegorm the Fair and Curufin the Crafty. They are the most plausible Elfscumteam AFAIK.

I guess it's possible that the Mod may've messed with this a little in the interests of balance, though. Either way, I find it difficult to believe that the group is too large, because that would mean {SPS, Elscouta, Drip, Nacho} was majority elfscum, or that there was fortuitous use of night actions, or that living elfscum gambited by refraining from killing.

[Jack]

Or there was a roleblock, doc protection, every-other-night killer...

[Iecerint]

^ The first two are "fortuitous use of night actions." The last is possible, but not enough to explain what happened on its own.

Anyway, the point is that those are all low-probability events. Scum numbers matching the flavor + 1 extra dead elfscum seems parsimonious to me.

[Budja]

I'm disappointed. What happened to the CKD wagon.

Scummy > Lurky.

--
...reading...

[SpyreX]

If your town Anon then I'd be leaning hard on the wagonneer dos scumos being Ice. Followed by Starbuck.

However, again, I'm definitely not convinced you're town.

[Papa Zito]

At least I trust my meta reads on both Spy and Zito, people I can easily read.

!!

how sure are you of Jack towniness. Also thoughts of Iec.

Jack reads third party to me. He's being extremely careful not to say anything. I wouldn't cry if he showed up in the morgue but he's also not really a priority.

I don't have any issues with Iec really.

BTW, lots of people making possibly bad assumptions about the kills, so I'll just come out and say I vigged Nacho. But I can't vig again, which is unfortunate because BELIEVE ME I WOULD.

[J-Scope]

Why'd you pick Nacho? I'm sure you mentioned suspicion of his somewhere, but I cba looking back atm.

Jack's pretty town looking as far as J-scope are concerned (that's both heads leaning town on him fwiw)

Using flavour to completely justify a 2 man scum team is dodgy. I mean the mod may not stick to the flavour exactly. The lack of everyone flipping is annoying though. I want to see if Elscouta was town or not.

[Papa Zito]

Read Nacho's iso. Go on, I'll wait.

Back already?

That's why.