Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[shaft.ed]

Seol I have a few questions.

-I remember you saying that Nathan's ability will not effect Hiro, but I couldn't recall if it will give Ted a double kill. I realize this makes no sense so I'm guessing it won't. I'm guessing the people that will be effected by Nathan are: HRG, Mohinder, Eden, Matt Parkman, Claude, Linderman and any such roles absorbed/taken by Peter/Sylar.

-If Nathan targets Peter, will Peter be able to self target his motivation ability?

-If Nathan/Sylar and Peter both have the Motivating ability, can they use it to create an infinant loop of motivation or will the number of extra night actions be capped at 2?

-If Sylar kills Peter, will Sylar gain all the powers Peter has absorbed, Peter's power of absorption, or both?

-

Role Priority:

1) HRG's jailkeeping and DL's hiding
2) Haitian's dampening
3) Eden's redirecting
4) Nathan's motivation
5) All killing roles simultaneously
6) All other roles apart from Linderman
7) Linderman

Just want to make sure that this means if Linderman is killed his healing has no effect.

-Can Hiro still night skip if he is taken into custody by HRG?


And thanks in advance for the game. The set up looks great. Get drafting everyone!

[shaft.ed]

Another Nathan question.

If Nathan targets Peter/Sylar can he only use one type of ability he has gained?
*In case you hadn't noticed I'd like to be Nathan.

Also is everyone aware that the drafting phase has begun? With the speed of sign ups, I'm surprised that there isn't more activity here.

[shaft.ed]

four and a half days without a pick and you can jump in line.

I'm looking for something that will work regardless of which side I'm on.

Definite scum.

[shaft.ed]

four and a half days without a pick and you can jump in line.

I'm looking for something that will work regardless of which side I'm on.

Definite scum.

Yeah, especially considering alignments haven't gone out yet

brilliant

That's even more the reason

[shaft.ed]

Sorry nother question.
When Eden redirects a player will they be aware they are targeting someone else?

[shaft.ed]

I'll take Nathan. If Nathan's gone I'll take HRG. Pretty sure TSQ wanted Micah.

[shaft.ed]

Sweet a full compliment of powered people to motivate.

That leaves Micah, Hiro and HRG for CKD.



Yet another question (sorry should have read closer, most were answered in the rules)

-If Nathan and Eden target the same person, will Eden redirect both actions, or a single one and if only one action how is it decided which one she redirects?

[shaft.ed]

Until I see something particularly scummy, it seems sensible to figure out which of the roles are significantly more harmful if they are in the hands of scum than they are beneficial if they're in the hands of pro-town players. I haven't given a

lot

of thought to which roles fit into this category, but I think the one that stands out the most to me is the Subliminal Influencer -- while it's conceivable he could determine a scum player by switching the kill to someone else, it's somewhat unlikely and not a 100% guarantee. On the other hand, there's potential to cause massive confusion among pro-town roles by screwing with investigation-type results.

Consequently, I think for a first vote, I'll

Vote: Oman.

Cam

By your logic The Haitain is the most antitown. He's an investigation immune roleblocker that can't block any kills except for Ted's who's a vig likely to be protown. I don't see how any of that is helpful.

vote: Cam

for poor logic

[shaft.ed]

JDodge just because we know you can't be investigated doesn't mean your power is not antitown.

There are situations where Eden's can be decidedly protown, for instance if Linderman, Nathan, Claude, Parkman or Ted are scum. The only protown effect that the Haitian can ever have is by blocking a scum directed Ted explosion.

But yes rereading Cam's post, Eden is can be quite dangerous as scum, but the Haitian role is almost entirely designed with scum in mind.

[shaft.ed]

It's worth nothing that I'm essentially a night-action-immune version of HRG.

This is incorrect based on my reading of the rules (which obviously weren't so great). HRG is the only player that can make another player

untargetable

to anyone else in the game, thus from Sylar or the mafia so he is also effectively a Doc. You only block Powers. Directable powers are Watcher, Tracker, Redirector, Motivator, Doctor, and Suicide Vig. If I'm reading correctly HRG also blocks Networking, mafia NK, and Sylar NK. HRG can also block you from targeting someone, but this would be of no consequence as his effect is similar.

[shaft.ed]

Just pointing out I'm usually not posting on the weekends. Have a good random phase.

[shaft.ed]

Seol before I start off, another Eden question. If a player choses no target can Eden force one to be made?

Bah I got off to a really bad start in this game. First off, I didn't read Cam's initial post closely enough. I should have noticed he was just putting the idea of Eden being most antitown out there. Also, like CKD and TSQ I had the feeling that he was pushing for a policy lynch, and not simple pressure. For this reason I think I should

unvote Mathcam

Also I've been rolling it over in my head this weekend and Eden is in fact the most dangerous role to the town, not the Haitian. This is because the Haitian's power can be contained where Eden's can "get out." The Haitian's power make us know that JDodge is unTrackable and Vigable, but if they were picked up by Sylar they would be of little use because once a "dampened" result is obtained Sylar will be found out. So the threat stays with JDodge. However, if Sylar kills Oman and picks up the redirection, we will have no way of knowing whether any of our investigation results are worth anything. This negates a good portion of our protown powers. While it wouldn't be that big of a problem if they power were to be steadfastly remaining with Oman since he can be Dampened, Jailed or Tracked, the danger of the powers escaping is real. And having the Jailkeeper's target choreographed each day is also a big problem. Thus I rescind my earlier analysis and agree that Oman's role is an inherently greater threat than JDodge's.

In a further power analysis I have to say I found some of Yvonne's comments off.

I think Eden, Nathan and Peter are dangerous in the hands of scum, especially if two or more are partnered together, and can cause a lot chaos in town without town realising it.

This is a very curosry analysis. I fail to see how my powers are extremely dangerous to the town. It's not like people won't be able to elucidate who I targeted. I expect if tommorow comes and I haven't targeted the Watcher, Tracker or Doc I'm going to be under a large amount of pressure.

HRG and the Haitian will be very helpful if pro-town but the Haitian's immunity to Powers has a lot more advantage as anti-town. If the Haitian is pro-town, the immunity is useful only to prevent anti-town Ted from suiciding on him and anti-town Eden from redirecting him. So I do agree that HRG is more pro-town than the Haitian if you go by a certain logic.

As I've stated before the Haitian is hardly a protown role. The threat of a scum Ted kill is largest if he is close to lynch when the Haitian cannot dampen him. The only good thing the Haitian gives the town is control over the Redirection which will be moot if picked up by Sylar.

Matt and Claude are just the usual Tracker and Watcher stuff. I personally think they are more helpful as pro-town than anti-town but it might be WIFOM since I'm Claude.

Given the set up of two killing groups having them around as scum may not be bad in the early goings. But noone should get a free pass based on their role.

As far as players go, I haven't noticed any big transgressions. CKD's attacking of Mathcam was a bit much, but I did the same for even poorer reasons.

[shaft.ed]

WOAH WOAH WOAH. Show me the post where I ever came ever close to saying that mathcam was pushing for a policy lynch? Like, don't try to drag me down with your crappy logic, dude.

unfos Jdodge, mathcam

Wow...I was completely wrong there.

Sorry I inferred that's what your FoS's were about since they were comepletely unaccompanied by any explanation. If you'd explain a bit more then I wouldn't end up using such crappy logic.

[shaft.ed]

WOAH WOAH WOAH. Show me the post where I ever came ever close to saying that mathcam was pushing for a policy lynch? Like, don't try to drag me down with your crappy logic, dude.

unfos Jdodge, mathcam

Wow...I was completely wrong there.

Sorry I inferred that's what your FoS's were about since they were comepletely unaccompanied by any explanation. If you'd explain a bit more then I wouldn't end up using such crappy logic.

No, your crappy logic is not at all a product of others, it's a product of you alone. If you have a question about what I feel about something, ask, instead of making an assumption about it.

OK so what were your FOS's for in the first place?

[shaft.ed]

I'd like to ask people, please work off the assumption that I'm town here (as I'm looking for advice). Do you feel that my usage of my power tonight would be a benefit or a detriment to the town?

I'd say I'm not incredibly comfortable with you targeting anyone tonight. But if you do get a scum read on myself or David I think those two roles could be redirected without too much harm to the town. If mafia have the Doc role they can target a decent candidate but obviously miss for the night, and their protection has no effect on Sylar kills. Also with me, for example if I were paired with an investigative role, I could motivate a partner to make sure our night actions are not detected and still have cover. Or if scum with the Doc I could do the same as above just with two targets. But please don't mess with the investigative roles. They may find scum regardless of alignment and I don't think we want to get into a game of "do we trust Oman" if they should hit something.

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed is either being lazy or trying to draw sheavotes. I doubt it is scummy as its not terribly effective.

Sorry guys, I was trying to post content without reading the thread. Generally not a good idea. My bad TSQ I'll cease acting like an ass.

That's the second time shaft.ed's jumped on a chance to attack someone that could have been easily prevented with a closer reading. To this credit, he's since backed down from one of them, but given how carefully he's been paying attention to the rules, I can't help but feel that it's scummy that he hasn't been paying similar attention to player's posts.

Cam

That's because I had a day and a half to kick myself for messing up your initial post. I only get a minute or two to read on the weekends and evenings so I can miss details when skimming the thread.

[shaft.ed]

Adele, if you're town I want to target you ASAP. If you're scum, my role in your hands could be very not good.

I don't like where this is going. We've discussed the dangers of your role being in antitown hands. You know you cannot verify anyone else's alignment, thus you should not be considering this course of action.

[shaft.ed]

I agree with JDodge about Oman's self protecting comment. There is very very little chance the mafia would target him tonight, redirecting Doc protection to him would be quite a waste IMO.

[shaft.ed]

His wanting to protect himself using the doc

I'm a confirmed townie, the only one I know. Why wouldn't I want to do that?

You wouldn't want to do that because your powers are of very little threat to the scum and therefore you are incredibly unlikely to be NK'd by mafia. In order to estimate the usefulness of Doc protecting someone you should calculate Probability of Town*Probability of NK. I think your score will be much lower than other players in this game.

You know you cannot verify anyone else's alignment, thus you should not be considering this course of action.

There are other people in this game with powers other than me and Adele, and they can't

all

be scum.

I don't think you are understanding my statement here. The redirection in scum hands corrupts our investigative roles. Therefore by spreading your redirecting powers about, this increases the likelihood that we should not be trusting our investigation results, which effectively removes two town power roles that are even partiallly protown when used by scum until one of the two killing factions is removed from the game.

[shaft.ed]

DL doesn't target anyone, thus Peter can't end up with his power, only Sylar can take it.

I see Peter as a depository for useful town powers, basically a back up in case the initial power holder dies, and of course as an extra "insert power role here" while both are alive. The difficulty is that I think Peter's power is quite useful to Sylar and the only way to protect Peter from Sylar is to lock him in jail which means he can't be targeted. So the problem becomes obvious.

Also as noted previously, investigative roles are best sent towards Peter as they can help the town regardless of Adeles alignment, the Doc will basically not matter if you are scum, and the motivation power could be detrimental if you are mafia aligned.

As far as players go, I think Oman has piled up enought to warrant a vote from me.

vote: Oman

And has anyone seen Zindaras only one post in thread.

[shaft.ed]

OK I have no record of harassing you. Can you answer TSQ's question please?

[shaft.ed]

investigative roles are best sent towards Peter as they can help the town regardless of Adeles alignment

Please explain this.

This sentence doesn't read as I intended it. It looks like I'm saying "It's a good thing to send investigative powers to Adele." What I meant by that was: "Of the powers that can be sent to Adele, the investigative ones would be the most beneficial to the town."

[shaft.ed]

I don't think this strategy is viable because I don't suspect our investigative roles will survive for a large portion of the game. Also D2 will only yield two investigations (possibly three with my power but from two people). Revealing will also out to the scum whether or not Adele has been given a power, I don't know if that's something we want out in the open or not. Personally I'd like to know because it gives me an extra target N2, but it may not be in the town's best inerest.

[shaft.ed]

"Of the powers that can be sent to Adele, the investigative ones would be the most beneficial to the town."

Not if she's scum.

We have two scum groups at the moment. I think it would be in their interest to remove there killing adversaries.

[shaft.ed]

"Of the powers that can be sent to Adele, the investigative ones would be the most beneficial to the town."

Not if she's scum.

Oman, I find it very strange that you're doing a 180 on giving Adele powers. A couple pages ago you were discussing sending her your redirection ability, although it had previously been discussed at length that your powers in scum hands basically nullify investigation results and could make a town aligned doctor absolutely useless. Now you're getting hesitant about her being given Investigation powers, even though they can still be in the town's benefit if given to scum.

The only argument I have seen against this is that "scum can make up investigation results." The problem with scum running this gambit is that it will come down to two people telling the town that the other one is lying. Since it's highly unlikely two townies would run into this situation (ABR isn't here after all) it should be safe to assume that any time a player's account of who they targeted differs from a Tracker/Wathcer result either the player that was investigated or the player that did the investigating is lying and is scum. Thus the town will likely lynch one of the two said players because there should be a 50% chance that one or the other is scum. BCS town guesses right and lynches the scum right off losing noone, WCS town trades 1:1 townie for scum. Unless the town is in a precarious situation I don't see either result as bad for the town. I also find it interesting that the only way this situation won't work out as I've outlined above is if your power of redirection is thrown into the mix.

Um...Unless you're counting the SK as a "scumgroup" then I'm missing something, shaft.d

Yes I am counting Sylar as a scum "group." I think if the mafia investigate and find Sylar they will very likely bring it up the next day in order to lynch him. I don't think Sylar will use investigative powers even if given to him, but if he ONLY has them to use I would guess he will keep the results to himself and kill the scum at night as needed.

Claude ( Yseer ) If I had your role I would be looking at one of these 3 people
Here I my reasons why.
Mathcam: His role is dangerous in mafia hands the longer we go on the more dangerous it becomes. Even if he is town then I would like to know who was visiting him. If he is not their when you get their, we could have our SK
Adele: I would want to know exactly which powers she is getting and why. I think it would be helpful for judging her and her targeters alignments.
Omen: Similar reasons as Mathcams

Now you properly had all these in your head anyway but I wanted to put it out their as it might put scum\SK off

Which 3 people do you think I should be looking at and why?

David don't talk about being replaced unless you are actively hindering the game, any contribution is appreciated.

I wouldn't worry about Mathcam scum during the night. If he is mafia he will use his power during the day if he feels he is about to be lynched. If he is Sylar he won't use his power, the only advantage he has is he doesn't have to worry about being blown up.

[shaft.ed]

Town directing different roles is a good thing,

What do you have in mind?

Not to speak for TSQ here, but it seems as though the town discussing the possibilities and outcomes of certain targeting events might be a decent thing for certain abilities, and maybe narrowing down to a window of acceptable choices. In some instances its pretty obvious though. For example I have 3 viable choices, maybe a 4th, but it's pretty obvious who I should narrow my window of targets down to. I don't see a harm in talking about who makes a good target, but obviously saying "Tonight X will definitely target Y" is not a great idea for the town. I would have to say I do think talking about targets for the protective roles (Dave and CKD) is probably a touchy subject best left for them to figure out.

[shaft.ed]

Seol could we get a Zindaras prod please?

[shaft.ed]

I was talking about Adele's alignment and how important it was, you just wanted Adele to get the roles regardless.

I do want Adele to get these powers because we have two scumgroups that may want to kill eachother. This means that they might actually use the tracking/watching ability. Also if she doesn't use said ability but opps out for something more sinister that her scum partner passed her, she is going to have to fabricate an investigation result for the town since she won't have a real one. So if she is scum, we're essentially tying her hands by passing an investigative role.

The problem with scum running this gambit is that it will come down to two people telling the town that the other one is lying.

They could both be mafia.

So you don't want to spread out pro-town investigative roles because it gives the scum another way to bus eachother? Are you kidding me?

You seem very adamantly opposed to giving Adele investigative powers. I have provided much evidence that it is in the town's interest to send them her way. Would you please clearly explain why this is such a bad thing?

Vote: Shaft.ed

This is the third (?) time you've done something strange like this. Its simply falsifying.

I'm not the only one that found your statements fishy. I don't believe I have falsified anything. You are weirdly against doing something that is protown.

[shaft.ed]

Okay, I think I've got an idea about how to optimally utilise Matt, Peter, Nathan and myself.

Night 1: Nathan motivates Matt or me. The one who gets motivated uses one target to pass on the power to Peter and uses the other target ordinarily.

Night 2: Nathan motivates the other one.

Night 3 onwards: Free for all.

If any of us are not motivated or if Peter does not receive the investigative power, then we may have found the anti-town among our small circle.

Also, that way, every night we'll still have results while passing our powers to Peter. How's that sound?

Doesn't sound too bad. A little too choreographed though IMO. Basically, if Sylar wanted to target Peter and you Watch him today, he can make a pretty good guess that Peter is an available target D2. Same if Adele is mafia. If Peter gets Watched D1 then they know not to kill with Adele D2 (or really D1 for that matter). Also I'd like the Lindermann option to be open to me as him having a double protect could be very beneficial to the town.

[shaft.ed]

Yes, I did find something strange about the comment, sahft.ed but I would like to hear what you find strange about it first.

Which comment?

[shaft.ed]

'lo?

Yeah I'm a bit disappointed, I thought this game would be very active due to how excited everyone was to be playing in it. I guess I'll try to get some conversation going.

-Oman would you please address my last post.

-Zoneace could you please reply to TSQ's questions from many weeks ago.

-Zindaras can you please post anything.

-JDodge can you try to do this

/in for smalltown

I plan on trying out a more calm, verbose playstyle this game.

I give it 5 pages before i break

Damn it's already page 9

[shaft.ed]

Unvote Vote: No Lynch

I think this is the best solution in this game situation. We don't risk lynching pro-town powers, and we give those people a chance to make themselves useful.

If you don't want to lynch because you're afraid of losing pro-town power roles you still have lynch candidates. For instance TSQ is vanilla, so no risk of losing a power there. And Matchcam has already proposed voting based on usefulness to town vs. danger if scum. At least two roles have been pointed out in that discussion. So why not pressure TSQ if all you're worried about is losing power roles?

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed - It is a bad idea to give scum investigative powers. Why? because we'll TRUST her. And trusting scum is not a good move.

Oman this argument is silly at best. I have already pointed out that when scum make up investigation results there will be an obvious situation where someone is lying and thus scum are unlikely to make it out of such a situation unscathed. Also you didn't even address the part where if Adele is anti-town she can be passed some dangerous powers from her scum buddies. If we give her investigative powers she will have to answer as to why those were not used, or make up investigation results. I think this could conceivably neutralize the risk of her receiving dangerous powers from her scum buddies.

Given the conversation the two of you had about passing your power to her I'm a bit suspicious of this situation. Adele would you care to comment?

[shaft.ed]

umm because i think lynching someone simply because they are vanilla is a bad idea. A lynch for lynches sake is a bad lynch. Lynching someone just because you're supposed to lynch (in general) is not a sufficient reason.

Sorry if my words were unclear I wasn't trying to suggest lynching TSQ. What I was getting at was:

So why not pressure TSQ if all you're worried about is losing power roles?

You have people with no/detrimental powers. Yet you just want to move to No Lynch straight away. You might as well pressure them ahead of time to see if you can get a read right? It seems as though you are just giving up on the day because you can't force claims in this situation.

[shaft.ed]

And completely ignores my post....

He musn't like you or your questions. He answered me pretty quick...the first time at least.

Is there some kind of global holiday going on?
I would really like to hear something from the following people:

Adele-last post Dec 06
CKD-last post Dec 06
davidangelsummers-last post Dec 07
YvonneSeer-last post Dec 07
Zindaras-last contentful post never

[shaft.ed]

I'm not liking Zonace's play. His interaction with TSQ has been rehashed twice now so I won't bother, and I have asked him a couple times to respond to the original questions. I don't know his playstyle too well as I have only read him for the last few pages of MAD II mafia so I'll have to do a meta check before I vote for reasons of altered playstyle. However, as I've stated above, the No Lynch vote doesn't make sense this early in the day and his explanation doesn't exactly jive. But I will state up front I am reluctant to lynch Zoneace today simply based on his role. Stringing up a known tracker D1 would be a big gain for scum if he is in fact town aligned.

FoS: Zoneace

. Will move to a vote depending on meta, and his response to the current querries.

[shaft.ed]

oh christ, this bullshit again.


yay



seriously, you guys, why the fuck is me not answering shea scummy?


he's being petulant. And if he got his head of his ass he'd realize ive actually answered more than one of his questions, i just didn't direct my answers at him.


so lets all try reading again, and then getting back to me.

Thanks for addressing the No Lynch vote, much appreciated.

[shaft.ed]

then why is he asking the same damn question like he didn't the post? I explained why i voted No lynch, when i did so. Those are reasons, i have no others. would he like me now to make up something?

Actually what I'd like to know is why you are pushing for a No Lynch so quickly? If you had read my post you may have been able to notice that, so you may take your own advice in reading the thread. If you'd rather been an asshole than actually answer anybody's posts that's your perogative, but I do view such activity as a detriment to the town because it a) seems as though you are trying to have limited positions on record for which you may make a slip up and b) if you are in fact town it distracts from scummy behavior (at least to me, your playstyle might help draw it out I don't know).

[shaft.ed]

-Zoneace, thanks for the clarification. If you could make an argument as to why you think it's more important to keep power roles around than to garner lynching information that'd be nice.

-TSQ, please don't talk about replacing out just for personal conflict reasons. This game should have very low replacement levels based on the pre-game interest. (It's not our fault you picked Ando)

-Yvonne, I think disregarding pro-town utility vs anti-town utility of roles when considering a lynch is detrimental to the town, especially on D1. I would be much happier to know that we are eliminating a major threat even if we mislynch, than going for the scummier player. Especially since D1 lynches are much less likely to hit scum than after we've gotten some momentum in the game. But in my mind Gorgon and CKD's roles are pretty equal in town value. While HRG would be more dangerous if scum aligned, he's more helpful is town aligned as he's the only targetable anti-Sylar device and the only roleblocker that can stop mafia NK's.

-DAS, could you address Matchcam's point about players changing their minds often. I agree with him especially in this early stage of the game.

On a separate note, I'm generally against lynching based on the number of time a vote has been switched. I don't find it particularly scummy -- first of all, it's high profile, and second of all, it reflects the townie's plight of not knowing who scum are (which contrasts to the scum position of knowing who non-scum are and just pretending not to know scum). Vote-switching is frequently just a sign of uncertainty, something which townies should have a lot of.

Finally I still think Oman's play has been the most scummy. I really don't understand his reluctance to pass on investigative roles to Adele. He hasn't explained it any more than "we can't trust anyone" and I find this stance to be antitown. He also had the redirecting Doc to target himself incident, survey of what use of his powers would be acceptable, and was quite quick to proclaim his town alignment.

[shaft.ed]

-Zoneace, thanks for the clarification. If you could make an argument as to why you think it's more important to keep power roles around than to garner lynching information that'd be nice.

Its day one, what sort of useful lynching info are you expecting to get? In my experience, day one is more about wild speculation, based on NOTHING. that's all well in good in a closed format, or even an open format, but this format is different guys, WE KNOW THE POWER WE'RE LYNCHING, in other formats day 1 you have no clue and therefore no reason to expect you're voting for a doc or a cop or a RB so baseless speculation is less damaging, but here baseless speculation will cause us to lose someone important guranteed. We can prevent that, allow night actions to happen, and go from there tomorrow, with some REAL information.

I've got to go read the other Smalltowns to see how the mechanics generally effect lynching and night actions, but even if you are worried about losing powers there are people that can be at the very least pressured since they are either non-useful to the town, or much more detrimental as scum than useful if town. Below I've ranked player roles as I feel they are dangerous-helpful to the town form top to bottom. I personally would be OK lynching anyone Anti-town to Neutral today and would consider lynching players that are slightly pro-town if they are scummy enough, but I don't think I will consider lynching anyone in the Pro-town category today. I might consider a No-Lynch depending on the days activities and my reads of previous smalltowns, but as of now I don't think it is the optimal strategy.

Oman:

The only major pro-town use I could think of with his power is being able to redirect the Doc to himself, but the mafia kill comes in before the Doc protection anyway so this is moot. This re-direction could potentially wreak all kinds of havoc on investigative roles.

Rank Anti-town.

JDodge:

The only pro-town use of this role I could think of was keeping Oman in check, or blocking me from aiding scum powers like Oman's if we were aligned. However, there are a lot of anti-town things he can do with his powers, and he is inherently untrackable.

Rank Anti-Town.

Mathcam:

If town aligned could create a one to one trade for a mafia player with his suicide vig'ing power, but has the potential of taking out two townies if he is wrong. If anti-town very likely to take a townie with him as a lynch nears.

Rank Slightly Anti-Town.

TSQ:

We know he's vanilla so there's no loss of a power role.

Rank Neutral.

Zindaras:

I don't see how Mohinder's networking could be incredibly useful to town or scum, I'd rank this just above vanilla.

Rank Neutral.

CKD:

While very useful to the town as an Anti-Sylar device, I think if scum aligned CKD can make pro-town roles inoperable "for their own safety."

Rank Slightly Pro-Town.

Me:

Basically an extra investigation/Doc protection for the town if myself and the target both survive the night. Could wreak extra havoc if aligned with Oman.

Rank Slightly Pro-Town.

Gorgon:

A 50% NK immune player. I don't think he's that useful to the town since he's unlikely to draw much mafia fire at night unless they can ascertain his phase. This will make him a non-target for them. Thus he will push NK's to other more informative players. But if he is town, could be very helpful towards end game if he buys the town an extra night. If scum aligned only prevents cross-kills not sure this makes a big difference either way.

Rank Slightly Pro-Town.

Adele:

A depository of useful town power roles if town alighned. Can also become an extra independent investigator/Doc starting N2. Only useful antitown if receiving Oman's power.

Rank Pro-Town.

DAS:

A Doc that only prevents mafia kills. Night action also only has effect if he survives the night (probably not a big deal since Sylar is unlikely to target him).

Rank Pro-Town.

Zoneace:

Tracker one of two investigative roles. We have two scum groups so they will be interested in at least pinning down the other scum in early game. However, role can be used as a way to gain town trust and to avoid lynch for a period of time.

Rank Pro-town.

YvonneSeer:

Watcher, same summary as Zoneace.

Rank Pro-town.

[shaft.ed]

OK, so it seems as though this is the first smalltown to deal with a day start. I still think we can use our lynch (or threat of) to:

-create some interactions to better guide night choices going into N1
-create some information on which interpretations of night actions can be based D2
-eliminate or intimidate dangerous power roles
-pressure possible scum into giving tells

Basically I don't think this entire game should boil down to interpretations of night actions.

[shaft.ed]

Cross-posted with TSQ. I agree, just because bandwagon's are traditionally used to force claims doesn't mean we should abandon them.

[shaft.ed]

I think you claiming that a post 18 minutes later was a "cross post" is a tad disingenuous.

I was reading another thread while posting. What's to be gained by faking a cross post over something like that anyway?

[shaft.ed]

If you read my post that was cross-posted with yours it contains no sentiments that were in your first post, and I believe it is a better argument for entertaining a lynch today than yours and presented in a less confrontational manner which Zonace, the player suggesting the No Lynch, seems more inclined to respond to (imagine that). I simply stated that I agreed with your point which was separate from mine. Further, I have been pushing against a no lynch since it was suggested so don't go telling me I am parroting your ideas on this subject.

I notice you have a problem with people "answering questions for you." I tend to do this all the time because I am on the board too much and enjoy being involved in conversation. I admit I did it on one occasion in this game with a question directed to you and clearly stated while I was posting that I did not intend to speak for you. I now realize that it is a bad play and you have demonstrated to me that certain players are very paranoid about it. So I will not be answering anyone else's questions in any of my games from now on. Thank you for the advice on this topic.

[shaft.ed]

if oman does come up scum at any point, that would probably clear adele in my mind, because I can't see oman warning the town about giving his scumbuddy extra powers, especially as stretching as he was.

I wouldn't go that far. If Oman had any brain power he would have seen the town was reacting to his viewpoint negatively and accordingly players have (at least I have) rallied around the towniness of Adele (or simply her role). He may have been doing that to make her look better. Either way I'd call it a null tell.


JDodge, I know you're a busy guy but show this thread some love please.

Oman, you're posting very infrequently for someone with 14.77 posts per day.

Zindaras, are you alive, do we need to send the police to your house?



*disclaimer, this post in no way reflects the views of TSQ. The desire to receive contributions from the players stated above was entirely born of my own free will. Any similarities to the wishes of TSQ are purely coincidental.

[shaft.ed]

Post 271 is the main post I want to address, specifically a few big points in shaft.ed's analysis of role towniness:

JDodge: The only pro-town use of this role I could think of was keeping Oman in check, or blocking me from aiding scum powers like Oman's if we were aligned. However, there are a lot of anti-town things he can do with his powers, and he is inherently untrackable. Rank Anti-Town.

As well as being 1 of only two people who can prevent Adele from gaining powers (I think), preventing a possible scum-Linderman from protecting his buddies and preventing a scum-Nathan from helping his buddies.

Outside of Oman's power I don't really see any power Adele can gain as being antitown unless there's some crazy Me, Oman, Adele scum group. Linderman only protects against mafia kills so scum-protection really won't do anything. Therefore, if you block Linderman I will vehemently call for your lynch. I already mentioned the potential of you blocking me up there.

Me: Basically an extra investigation/Doc protection for the town if myself and the target both survive the night. Could wreak extra havoc if aligned with Oman. Rank Slightly Pro-Town.

You could wreak extra havoc if aligned with

anyone

, really.

Can you please name a power that I can motivate besides Oman's that has a negative effect on the town (and Adele using Oman's power doesn't count).

Adele: A depository of useful town power roles if town alighned. Can also become an extra independent investigator/Doc starting N2. Only useful antitown if receiving Oman's power. Rank Pro-Town.

Or can be hell later on if she's scum. Furthermore, her role is hardly "pro-town" until she actually has some powers - as it stands, she's essentially vanilla until we've had a night.

Again outside of Oman, the powers that Adele can absorb are all pro town. But you did bring up something I forgot about. Adele is essentially a one shot alarm system. So if she has been tracked she will know it. This will allow her to get her story straight if she is scum that's done something bad. I still don't see here being incredibly powerful in the late game, unless your perspective is from the scums bench.

Just to remind everyone the powers that I can motivate, Adele can absorb and Oman can redirect are limited to:
Motivation
Mafia Kill Protection
Tracking
Watching
Redirection of above powers*

*Redirection will also work on Mathcam's suicide vig'ing but only if used during the night phase.


Anyway, why aren't more people voting for Oman?

[shaft.ed]

Just realized that if Mathcam were town lynching him today would be a bad idea. This is because if he's town he will likely try to take out a scummy target with him prior to his lynch. Therefore, lynching him today will force him to either a)waste his power or b) make a very uninformed decision. Thus I will remove Mathcam from my "lynchable" list leaving my options of Oman, JDodge, TSQ, Zindaras and maybe No Lynch open for the day.

I'm still internally conflicted about limiting the scope of lynch targets due completely to role powers, and I hate policy lynchings in genearl but I can't really see another logical solution to this situation. Conveniently I am finding Oman the most scummy player and he happens to have arguably the most harmful role so it's working out for now.

And TSQ please learn how to read I clearly stated Oman, not shaft.ed in the post preceeding yours:

Anyway, why aren't more people voting for Oman?

Vote:Shaft.ed

[shaft.ed]

Now, the reasoning for the vote is simple. Shaft.ed's attacks on Oman seem one tracked. It seems like he's ignoring most of the game and just focusing myopically on Oman.

Sorry, but I'm just not seeing anything else scummy going on. It's likely due to the lack of input from about a third of the town (JDodge, Adele, Zindaras and Yvonne at the very least need to post more and some actual input gathered without asking 18 times would be nice from ZONEACE). The only big dust ups have been between Gorgon and CKD, and you and ZONEACE. In response to the former, I find your play to be pro-town while ZONACE's is anti-town, but I've already decided I'm giving a pass to the investigative roles regardless of alignment for D1 unless they do something that is incredibly scummy today. In regards to the former, I really don't see much in the spat between Gorgon and CKD, neither had very strong points at this time, but I will keep an eye on them.

This to me looks like a player attempting to play in a hyper attacking style to mask the fact that he's really not paying too much attention to the game. A fact which has been born out in several situations where he has really shown that he hasn't been reading the thread very carefully. (asking questions which had already been asked a couple posts up comes to mind.)

I would hope this is referencing my early game play. I feel I have been paying a lot more attention to this thread than most others over the last few pages of posts.

Additionally, he seems to be testing the waters here, in his last post. To me, the last post almost screams

Am I going to be able to misslynch this guy, or should I move on to someone else.

I'll admit that a lot of this is influenced by the fact that I don't think the case against oman is very strong. But I think the case against shaft.ed is there regardless of it you think Oman is scum or not. (could be aggressive bussing)

I am concerned about Oman's role much more than I am concerned about Oman, but I believe he has made at least three plays that could be considered scummy. He is also pretty much refusing to address my points on passing powers to Adele, and he is avoiding the thread while posting plentifully on site. He did this exact same thing in mini 495 when I was hammering on him and he turned up scum in that instance.

Also I really don't see this as a case against me. I understand my narrow focus is a scum tell, but Oman's role is dangerous and his play is no where near obvtown which I would hope it would be given his role.

[shaft.ed]

I find it interesting that Oman finally hops in only after Mathcam begins conversing with me on the topic. And a mere 11 minutes after the vote.


CKD, what you're also missing is that we have two scum groups here who are interested in destroying the other. Thus even scum aligned investigative roles may serve the town's interest if they can nail down the other scum group. I've said this before many times. Just because the scum will not investigate their own kills doesn't mean they won't be looking for the other group. Add this to the fact that we don't know their alignment and DO KNOW that they would be very much useful to the town, I really don't see the benefit of lynching them based on the sketchy evidence that is usually presented as a case to lynch someone D1.

[shaft.ed]

well, then I guess I am lucky my vote isnt on an investigatvie role, now arent I?

So you agree that we shouldn't lynch investigative roles D1, and vote for me because I don't think we should lynch investigative roles D1.

Speaking of, can I make a LAL request?

I think LAL is certainly a protown strategy in this game (if not all).

[shaft.ed]

I too have little to gain by lying about whether I did or did not just explode.

Liar

In all seriousness, you could lie if you try to explode but are blocked by JDodge or CKD. But a) I doubt you'll explode at night and b) there'd be no way to tell if you were lying or not unless you got tracked/watched (or maybe not even then).

Seol minor clarification
Since Jailkeeping and Dampaning occur before Power usage, will powers leave a "trail" if they are effectively blocked?

[shaft.ed]

wow another contentless post from Oman.

Are you going to address this ever?

Shaft.ed - It is a bad idea to give scum investigative powers. Why? because we'll TRUST her. And trusting scum is not a good move.

Oman this argument is silly at best. I have already pointed out that when scum make up investigation results there will be an obvious situation where someone is lying and thus scum are unlikely to make it out of such a situation unscathed. Also you didn't even address the part where if Adele is anti-town she can be passed some dangerous powers from her scum buddies. If we give her investigative powers she will have to answer as to why those were not used, or make up investigation results. I think this could conceivably neutralize the risk of her receiving dangerous powers from her scum buddies.

Given the conversation the two of you had about passing your power to her I'm a bit suspicious of this situation. Adele would you care to comment?

[shaft.ed]

Actually TSQ I found Zonace's assesment of your vote well within reason. If anyone is bringing in OOG feelings it seems to be you. Your not the only one Zonace has blown off in this game btw.

[shaft.ed]

I think we need to get down to lynching someone for today. I will post the people I am willing to lynch, and why, and the people I am not willing to lynch, and why, later today. I suggest everyone else do the same, or, if you're like zoneace, do the same for NL.

I agree with this sentiment, but we've still had literally no input from Zindaras.

Seol is there anyway he can be proded, asked for an explanation, or replaced?

I think I've been very upfront about my lynch choices for today.
People I would lynch as in a normal game are: Oman*, JDodge, TSQ, Zindaras.
People I would lynch if extra scummy: CKD, Gorgon, Mathcam, myself if from outside my perspective.
People I would lynch only if extra super scummy: Zoneace, YvonneSeer, DAS, and Adele.

*I would actually lynch Oman at a lower threshold than normal given what his power moving into Sylar's hands, or if paired with Adele could potentially do.

Anyway, most of you keep mentioning passing the investigative powers to Adele. Mind telling me how we go about doing that without coordination?

This doesn't take any coordination, it's a simple choice of action for yourself or Zoneace. If you're talking about me motivating, you should expect me to target you, Zoneace or DAS tonight. If you want to use such an opportunity to pass on your power to Adele that's up to you, but just remember if Oman is still alive N1 it is the first night choice he can redirect so put your more important night choice second if you have it.

[shaft.ed]

Seol, would like to request more frequent vote counts please. We're on page 15 with one vote count all game.

Thanks!

[shaft.ed]

OK before I put in a list of who I thought was scum I did a full reread. Below are my assessments of people in a PBP style. It may be a bit confusing. Later I'll sum up my thoughts on everyone based on this analysis.

CKD: Attacking anyone that suggests we not lynch useful power roles. I don't agree with this and I think the stance is slightly scummy, but at least he's been consistent about it starting the game attacking Mathcam and as of late going after me. I would like a better argument from him as to why he thinks his strategy is valid. I think he is taking the approach entirely too literally especially with this statment:

what is your plan tomorrow? Lynch the second most powerful role?

I can see him as scum either a) trying to make sure useful power roles are open for lynch, or b) latching on to such statements as a means to attack other players since in most games policy lynches (or anti-lynches) can be scummy. Attacks DAS for suggestions as to who Yvonne should target. Seems he doesn't like any "rule" like behavior that restricts play. Grossly mis-represents DAS's defense and turns it into a reason to vote. Backs down after called out by multiple players, TSQ doesn't like his retraction as he sees it as a way to placate the backlash and CKD states that he has no problems with suggestions which was clearly what DAS was doing. I think TSQ's points were valid. Counters a rather decent attack from Gorgon (see Gorgon section) when Gorgon waivers his vote rather easily, seems overly agressive to me. Votes for me because I stated I will no lynch Zoneace today unless he does something incredibly scumm, definitely doesn't like absolutes. Again over-interpreting people's statements as absolutes when they are in fact qualified at least the third time now. States clearly he will lynch based solely on scumminess, he is the anti-ZONACE? or is it anit-me I phail at antinyms.

ZONEACE: FoS's CKD for Cam reaction. Then ignores TSQ and pretty much the whole thread to come in with this useless post:

Just for the record, I'm not scum.

Seems to be an attempt to bait TSQ and he bites. After multiple prods by multiple players finally posts something significant, that he wants a no lynch. Further baits TSQ by stating he was attempting a policy lynch on ZONEACE, really not called for. No lynch seems to go very much against meta. Makes a curious argument that there is no point in pressuring anyone today because the information is generally not useful since it only outs power roles. Seems to me this is from a scum perspective as that's the useful thing for scum, but looking back on interactions based on what transpires today can always be helpful. I don't think this is a valid argument. Notices the endless string of non-content from Oman and drops an FoS, stands by his No Lynch unless something drastic happens.

YvonneSeer: First major post is a summary of powers by usefulsness to alignments. Don't think she's correct with The Haitian being very useful if town. Also drags Nathand and Peter roles into being very dangerous as scum with the qualifier if paired with Eden, no comment on their usefulness to town. Not sure if trying to set up a bias here. Argues against loading Adele with powers to fast. Mentions wasting targets on her if everyone were to give them right away. Seems to miss the point that Adele may be worth targeting regardless. Also states that giving her useful roles could give Adele cover later in the game. Seems to already apply to Yvonne, bit hypocritical here. Puts forward the Motivating->Investigator->Absorber strategy of passing roles to Adele. A bit worried this could choreograph too many players moves, but as YvonneSeer is one of the investigators I don't see her proposing passing her power to Adele if she is scum unless they happen to be aligned. Presents what seems to be a false problem in that we haven't coordinated a way to pass investigative powers on to Adele, readdressing her earlier sentiment about the plan, which most saw as too choreographed. Seems a tad scummy to bring this up again.

TSQ: Very intent on getting discussion aside from role interactions going (I agree but the role interactions are just easier to discuss). Didn't go after me even though I made a boneheaded misrepresentation of his statements, not overly eager to pursue. Gives his personal green light to Oman using his redirecting power, not a fan of that. Originates the argument the investigative roles could potentially use false results to hurt the town, I find this to be a distraction and incorrect. Calls out CKD for overreaction to DAS's watcher advice, rightly so. Makes a useful argument against No lynch, but gets mad at me for claiming a delayed cross-post. Votes me without any explanation, gets mad when Gorgon asks why and ZONEACE puts forth a theory. Later points out he voted because I am tunnel visioned on Oman. I admit this is correct I should have been paying more attention to others. This reread has opened my eyes to some poor play by CKD primarily that I did not notice at the time. TSQ curiously defends me against CKD's vote which is in agreement with TSQ, strikes me as quite pro-town. States hopefully in a sarcastic tone:

I have much to lie about.

Says we need to start discussing who to lynch, which made me write this monster post, you happy now?


Oman: First words out of his mouth:

I'm town, so you shouldn't worry.

Then comes forward and asks for advice on whether or not it is "acceptable" to use his powers. This statement stood out:

please work off the assumption that I'm town here

Later asks if he can redirect the Doc protection to himself. On closer inspection this isn't a mafia tell because the mafia can move the Doc protect anywhere. I do think it is indicative of a strong Sylar tell. Counters JDodge's criticism of the self-protect statement by saying he is the only confirmed townie he knows, this simply deflects the point of JDodge's criticism.

In conversation with Adele states:

Adele, if you're town I want to target you ASAP. If you're scum, my role in your hands could be very not good.

I fail to see why you would want to target he ASAP if she's town. Especially since we'll never know another's alignment until death. Seems like a useless statement to buddy Adele. Counters my criticism of this statement by stating that not everyone else in the game besides him and Adele can be scum. I don't understand what the point of this statement was, but it looks like he let it slip that either him or Adele (or both) must be scum. Oman then begins his argument against giving Adele investigative roles. I find this anti-town on many levels but I find it scummy in that early he was talking about how cool a pro-town Adele redirector would be. When asked why giving Adele investigative powers is bad he agrees with TSQ saying she could make up results. When Adele and I both point out this is actually a good thing for the town since at worst it will end in a 1:1 trade he suggests that it could be used as a bus'ing tactic (really WTF?). Finally votes me and states I falsified his statements which was not true. After Mathcam votes him he addresses this in thread even though I have asked him to answer specific questions. Does not provide any defense other than "shaft.ed is voting for me primarily based on my role." When presented with Adele's LAL proposal states:

I will lie through my teeth if i feel it gives me a better chance at winning this game.

DAS: Asks which roles he should NOT protect this night. Wording's a bit queer. Gives a poor analysis as to who Yvonne should target. FoS's Gorgon for vote hopping too much. Doesn't like the roles that CKD has voted for.

JDodge: First to vote Oman for asking whether or not he should use his power and if he can redirect the Doc to self-protect. When backing up his Oman vote he is rather cryptic. Not really liking this, but from my limited play with JDodge seems par for the course.

Adele: Countervotes JDodge for his Oman vote saying his concerns were valid. Runs up an accurate list of who should and shouldn't lend her powers. No likey No lynch. Seems to agree with TSQ that I am too Oman-centric, but also sees validity in my case against Oman. Presents LAL rule specific to this game.

Mathcam: Votes JDodge based on mild scumminess and his anti-town role. Puts forth another strategy (do you always use strategies?) that is a random claiming of investigative results. I find it moot due to the fact that we a) don't have true cops and b) are likely to lose them early in the game. The strategy could be anti-town as it forces the investigative roles hands and may reveal what roles Adele has been given. States his choices for night action are Oman, JDodge and No lynch in that order. No explanations seems to be holding his player reads pretty close to the vest. Does open up a bit to TSQ when asked. Reacts to TSQ's vote for me (because of Oman tunnel vision) by voting Oman after I present my case. Points out to CKD that his system is teh cool and we should be considering both scumminess and town utility when considering who to vote/lynch (which is it now) I agree.

Gorgon: First major contribution is his post against CKD's early play. He notices that CKD starts out by objecting to Mathcams' strategy of "voting" then later ups it to a strategy of "lynching" this is a serious conflict as he backs off the vote stating he's removing his vote based on his thinking that Mathcam was suggesting a lynching strategy. Note that this pretty much mirrors what CKD did in regards to DAS. Kinda like this post more than when I first read it. Strange that he backs off rather easily and switches to a ZONEACE vote based on the no lynch suggestion. Like Adele agrees with TSQ's point that I have tunnel vision in regards to Oman, but also agrees that there is a case against Oman.

[shaft.ed]

Finally where do I stand on everyone, list from most scummy to least:

Oman:

Obviously I'm finding Oman the most scummy. He's had many catalogued scummy plays, and has contributed nothing since being confronted with them, which I have found to be a scum tell in 495. He has also been overly eager to claim his towniness which I also find to be a scum tell. Finally his role is most detrimental to the town, so regardless of his usual playstyle he should be making a serious effort to look town today. I'd be happy with an Oman lynch today.

CKD:

He has twice followed a pattern of overstating someone's position and claiming he didn't understand at first thus voting and backing down. Gorgon demonstrated that at least in words, he clearly noticed the difference between voting and lynching in Mathcams statement. He has since gone after and I feel that he is also over simplifying my points and not considering the cost of lynching a useful protown powerrole.

ZONEACE:

I'm not liking his divisive play but while it is antitown I don't think this is scummy. My biggest concern is his push for a No Lynch which seems to go very much against his usual playstyle. Also his argument to back it up has been fairly week. Only thing to note here is that he is pushing th No Lynch when nobody is in any real danger of a lynch right now. Seems the only players that have even had a bit of consideration were CKD and Oman, or perhaps JDodge based on the theory of removing anti-town roles. Thus this behavior is only secondarily scummy.

Gorgon:

I liked his case against CKD, but it was a bit late in coming forth. This could have been an instance of a case thought up after the fact. Also didn't like how quickly he moved over to ZONEACE so quickly after CKD's rebuttal.

DAS:

Also too lurky to get a good read. Posts seem to have mechanics misunderstood on a regular basis. Also just a couple "Johny on the Spot"-like accusations which comes off to me as simulated scum-hunting.

JDodge:

As seems to be standard JDodge isn't adding much input. I like his attacks on Oman obviously, but he may be building a case around Mathcams' initial proposal. Overall just too lurky.

Adele:

Not posting a whole lot and seems very reluctant to take a side on issues. Most posts seem to be "I see both sides of this." While not a scum tell, the lack of any meaningful attacks seems troubling.

Zindaras:

Can't read someone that's not playing.

YvonneSeer:

Only anti-townishish thing I've noticed has been the want to create a hard solid plan of power passage to Adele. Seems a bit scummy since it will let scum know more than I'd like about who's targeting who, but seeing that Yvonne is one of those roles I think it's more of a townie under analysing repurcussions.

TSQ:

Will probably be paranoid that I placed him on the townie end of the spectrum as this is obviously buddying up. He is one of the few players to be constantly driving discussion towards players actions and not their future actions. A few times he's had the opportunity to advance his cause but has not since there were err's in those that agreed with him. This strikes me as pro-town. Wish he'd stop thinking there was a vast ZONEFACE conspiracy against him however.

Mathcam:

Posts are mostly analytical, wish he'd give a bit more on player's actions and do some more scum hunting. Has used his vote without doing anything scummy with it.

[shaft.ed]

Clarification:

I find your play to be pro-town while ZONACE's is anti-town, but I've already decided I'm giving a pass to the investigative roles regardless of alignment for D1 unless they do something that is incredibly scummy today.

it is statements like this that other me. "Regardless of alignment." How do you know who is what? But then you might vote them if they act scummy? This seems like you know who is scum and who is not, but wont vote anyone until the act scummy.

I dont care who has what role, if someone is scummy, we lynch them, no one gets a pass.

Vote shaft.ed

CKD also points out my statement Regardless of alignment. Sorry for missing this while I was rereading 15 pages.

[shaft.ed]

You attack him because he seems to being focusing on Oman and no one else. He answers with a "well I am not even going look at the investigative roles, unless they act incredibly scummy". Well, that A.) doesnt really fully address that (your) point, B.) makes it ok for him to ignore people today C.) Unlike our human bomb, I just dont buy it.

A) Actually if you read down to the rest of the post I responded to TSQ by also making my case against Oman which you seem to be ignoring.

I am concerned about Oman's role much more than I am concerned about Oman, but I believe he has made at least three plays that could be considered scummy. He is also pretty much refusing to address my points on passing powers to Adele, and he is avoiding the thread while posting plentifully on site. He did this exact same thing in mini 495 when I was hammering on him and he turned up scum in that instance.

B) It also makes it OK for me to allow roles that are pro-town regardless of alignment to survive a relatively uniformed lynch on D1.

[shaft.ed]

I'm still not clear how suggesting no lynch today is so scummy. The only way we GURANTEE we don't lose a pro-town power role is to lynch TSQ. Otherwise it's just a crap shoot and odds are we lose someone useful.

Please tell me what is incredibly useful about Zindaras, Oman and JDodge. And do you not believe that useful information can come from lynch votes?

[shaft.ed]

How curious:

Finally his role is most detrimental to the town, so regardless of his usual playstyle he should be making a serious effort to look town today.

He has also been overly eager to claim his towniness which I also find to be a scum tell.

Damned if I do, damned if I don't.

There is a very big difference between behaving town and claiming to be town. In fact I would propose that needlessly claiming to be town is a scum tell.

Also, my role could be dangerous to the town, which is why I asked for advice on its use. You seem to give with the right hand and take with the left.

Actually it is pretty obvious which redirections are dangerous for the town and which aren't, that's fairly clear. I interpreted your statement as being which of these plays would be dangerous to Oman.

[shaft.ed]

my lynch candidates:

Zindaras

, Shaft.ed

Works for me, it just needs to be fixed (D1 is so the best time to crack out LAL though).

There is a huge difference between a lurker and someone that is clearly not even in the game. You've got to be kidding me.

[shaft.ed]

"CKD: Attacking anyone that suggests we not lynch useful power roles." Really is that what I am doing or am I against people making choices for me?

going to address this or ignore it?

I think I cleary addressed this in my run down of your play.

Seems he doesn't like any "rule" like behavior that restricts play.
...
definitely doesn't like absolutes.

[shaft.ed]

I just want to point that you get mad at Za and everyone else that doesnt answer

your[/i
questions but you have yet to answer the question yourself in the alotted time you gave.

Good point, I'd like to see TSQ comment on his own inquisition.


And DAS the english is fine, I'm not doing much of anything over the Holidays so I've got a decent amount of free time.

[shaft.ed]

am I attacking them because they are suggesting we not lynch powerful roles, or because I dont think anyone should get a pass due to roles and dont like being told what to do with my vote or my "power"?..There is a difference here...I feel like you might be misrepresenting my motivations.

First you're conflating two points. I've never told you what you can and can't do with your vote. I've made a case that I believe to be valid in which it is to the town's best interest to not lynch roles that are only useful to the town based on limited D1 information. ZONEACE doesn't agree with this, but hasn't stated "he is being told" what to do. Why are you taking such a viewpoint? And when have I ever told you what to do with your power?

Second, I think you are splitting hairs here. My stance is I don't want pro-town power roles to by considered for lynch today unless under very extreme circumstances. You have attacked this stance, when taken by Mathcam(his was an inverse approach not sure if he entirely agrees with my position or not) and myself, because it gives me a way to limit my lynch candidates that is independent of game play. How then is this statement inaccurate:

CKD: Attacking anyone that suggests we not lynch useful power roles.

If I had said: CKD wants to lynch useful power roles, that would be a misrepresentation of your statement.

[shaft.ed]

I agree with Adele and ZONEACE. I will be a part of your Coalition of the Willing as long as you don't invade other countries against the will of the global community under false pretenses.

[shaft.ed]

i think we need to worry about the people not willing to lynch liars, cause they're either not playing to their win condition or their playing to a non-town win condition, either way, we should get rid of them.

See, this is why I hate having this discussion. I can think of literally hundreds of reasons a pro town player would lie. I have put forward this view in tons of threads before this game even began. If you'd like to lynch me for it, then fine.

I think that the number of situations where town should lie is astronomically smaller than the number of situations where scum should lie. Thus giving serious weight to people caught in a lie is not in the town's interest.

The point is a much more sound strategy is to treat a lie like any other in game action. Does the lie accomplish a town goal, or does it accomplish a anti town goal. If I claim vanilla when I am actually a cop to avoid getting NKed so that I can get to more investigation results, does that mean I'm "not playing to my win condition...Or to an anti-town win condition?" No, of course not. It means I'm playing the game smart. There are plenty of times when lying is anti town, and in those situations it should be a reason to lynch, but to say that any lie is inherently anti town is foolish.

Well your example fails abysmally in this game since we know everyone's role. I obviously don't want you providing incredibly specific examples for this game, but I really don't see any major benefits of townies lying. I can see them wanting to keep Night Actions to themselves in some instances, but completely fabricating them is a much bigger stretch.

[shaft.ed]

I dare you shea. come on. Why are you SO averse to lynching liars. you planning on lying to us later? want to set up your defense now?

Actually ZONEACE the reason that what he's saying isn't all that scummy is that he really can't lie. What's he gonna say if he gets caught targeting someone? "I was delivering the vanilla wafers."

[shaft.ed]

TSQ(do you prefer Shea btw?) I see your point, but if we agree as a town ahead of tiem that we will lynch anyone who lies, this makes it quite obvious that lying is clearly not a pro-town play as it will get you lynched if you are a lying townie. You're arguing whether or not lying can be a pro-town play in and of itself, we're arguing that it's in the town's best interest to set up a LAL policy. They are not the same. By setting up LAL we will cut back on a lot of confusion and we will also make it clear that scum caught fabricating Night Actions cannot talk their way out of it. I think in this set up the town has less to lose by forgoing lying then they have to gain by making it a viable town strategy. Therefore I think adopting LAL is in our best interest.

Also nice catch on the ZONEACE statement here:

we should lynch them because they are witholding...information

There is a huge difference between witholding information and fabricating it. I see plenty of examples where it is in the town's interest for night actions NOT to be made public: Investigator tarets Adele passing on power and results give nothing of interest. Or who the Doc targeted the night before. Whether or not Gorgon phased out or was kept in jail etc.

[shaft.ed]

I don't really have any anti town things to lie about.

What sort of pro-town things could you possibly have to lie about?

[shaft.ed]

What happens when I reply to both then?

[shaft.ed]

Mathcam, I agree with your 411 post theory and I think TSQ's "trap" was poor especially as it was targeted at a player he knew would love to take the opportunity to make him look like an ass.

In regards to LAL, this has been mentioned but not clearly, one of the main reasons townie may lie is to protect a power role, vital information in a closed game. However the kinds of information they may lie about here would be much less vital. I think in this instance it is in the town's interest to let people know they are at least extremely likely to be lynched if the lie. I would prefer a hardfast "you will be lynched" however.

Finally you seem to pop in with relevant information to the current topics with good insights, but would you mind doing a rundown of the players as TSQ requested?

[shaft.ed]

Dave I can feel your pain, I really don't feel much like jumping in to this conversation as it stands.

Enjoy your holiday!

[shaft.ed]

also shafted, I dont for a second believe the " I feel your pain" statement..why are you blaiming shea and ZA for your lack of posting "as it stands".

I generally don't like when any game gets into a back and forth between two players whether it be for in game reasons or not. i find it distracts from everyone else particularly on D1 and is a great way for scum to skate through the day. I should have elaborated on Shea's argument but I think I may have commented already:

I find his "tell" while possibly very valid in other situations to be weak here because ZONEACE has demonstrated a want to make TSQ look like an ass. But I do have to agree that ZA did attack the merit of the argument and didn't respond with a simple insult as he would have if going for assification. Also the edging of his position on No Lynch here may be considered a tell:

god i am SOO close to voting you. your completely useless power wise and you're proving yourself useless logic wise.

Finally I don't think your point about him witholding a hunch is entirely valid. A lot of times you don't want to point out a behavior because by itself it doesn't mean much, but if said behavior continues it could become a valid tell. Pointing out that you've noticed it would tip off the person you noticed doing it, thus not a great idea.

All toll I'd rank ZA slightly above Oman in scuminess. And I know this is going to annoy CKD, but I'm not moving my vote because I don't think the transgressions are enough to override the major discrepency in role value for the town.

You have the power to change it, add to it, start another line of conversation, or whatever, why dont you? Going to keep playing the victim?

Again I think you very much overstating my point here. I made one post venting minimal frustration on the situation, which was mostly just to wish DAS a good holiday. I don't see where I'm playing the victim with my statement. But I will admit your continued attacks on me, while having ZA to jump on do make me believe you are more likely to be town.

[shaft.ed]

and also people thinking my case is weaker than it because they think I am attacking out of some sort of grudge.

I think you have this backwards. I personally think you are validly hunting who you think to be scummy. What I consider in the OOG interactions is that ZA seems to want to be your antagonist, and as such I can see him jumping on a major mistake like that from you when presented with it. Either way I can see how it would be frustrating and am glad you have stuck with the game.

[shaft.ed]

Shea's argument satisifies me, I am more unnerved by zoneace than shaft.ed right now, but only cause I feel he's stopped

fabricating craplogic

.

Unvote vote ZONEACE

Please demonstrate.

[shaft.ed]

All toll I'd rank ZA slightly above Oman in scuminess. And I know this is going to annoy CKD, but I'm not moving my vote because I don't think the transgressions are enough to override the major discrepancy in role value for the town.

I respect this for now, but I would warn that this kind of thinking has the potential to be dangerous to the town. There is the tendency to believe people because their role is helpful in a game of mafia, but since this game functions differently than most mafia games insofar as players can have roles that only help the town can be scum. This makes giving anyone a free pass "problematic." My question to you is what do you do if ZA, or the leaving DAS is scum? What is the point where you are willing to vote them? If all our scum are in roles that are only helpful to the town, are you willing to continue to trade of potentially dangerous townie players indefinitely? Does the fact that you could be giving all three scum a free pass d1 worry you?

I don't know if I've been clear on this, but let me state this emphatically, I will only consider role usefulness heavily for the D1 lynch. On subsequent days if I see two people equally scummy the less pro-town role gets the vote, but that is the extent to which I will consider roles when voting after today. And yes I have considered that all three scum are getting a "pass" (by me at least) today, but we still have the ability to remove potentially dangerous roles from the game and the lynch wagon of the mis-lynched innocent should provide more information to go on tommorow. Further, a lycnh could help guide play for tonight (ie ZONEACE is a tracker, if he is town aligned getting a good read off of someone from a lynch could help him target the right player).

[shaft.ed]

Shea's argument satisifies me, I am more unnerved by zoneace than shaft.ed right now, but only cause I feel he's stopped fabricating craplogic.

Unvote vote ZONEACE

Hmm willingness to lynch the tracker based on the argument stemming from a fabricated tell trap set up by someone trying to lynch me for personal reasons.


Interesting.

Hmmm moving your sites to the biggest bandwagon as you see a bit of support developing for your lynch. Not to mention the further mischaracterization of Shea's case against you yet again.

[shaft.ed]

[quote="ZONEACE]
But nice mischaracterization of my post.
[/quote]No U

[shaft.ed]

I agree with pretty much everything Mathcam said.

I do have some serious content to add about the current ZA situation, it's just been a bit difficult for me to get the time to get it written down. I'm hoping tommorow I will fare better.

[shaft.ed]

Sorry guys new years took me away from the internets longer than expected. I'll get a post up later today. Pretty busy at work but I should have some time.

[shaft.ed]

I'm basically finding ZA's play to be assuradely anti-town but not seriously scummy. He's using insults, not answering people and in many instances avoiding serious discussion, but he has at times partaken in discussion although usually after much requesting. Of all of his play I find the advocacy of No Lynch to be the most troubling in regards to his usual play style.

I think the trap that TSQ set is pretty much a null tell for ZA because I would expect him to go after the weak part of the argument in order to make Shea look bad.

So up til now I'm finding ZA to be detrimental to the town but not seriously scummy. However I must say if not a confirmed Tracker with a 75% chance of being pro-town he would have my vote. And that's something I'm really not liking about this situation because I'm having to defend someone who is behaving like an ass.

And back to my "one track mind": Oman why do you never answer my inquiries completely (or sometimes at all)?

Shea's argument satisifies me, I am more unnerved by zoneace than shaft.ed right now, but only cause I feel he's stopped

fabricating craplogic

.

Unvote vote ZONEACE

Please demonstrate.

[shaft.ed]

ZA's answered me if I recall correctly. And the reason I refer to it as scummy in regards to you is from first hand experience in mini 495.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: And good job of not answering my question yet again.

[shaft.ed]

Mathcam, I'm arguing more on a meta basis. It seems quite a bit against the grain for what I've read as ZA's normal playstyle. In isolation I agree for this set up it's not particularly anti-town or scummy.

Any chance of mass prods as the Holidays are coming to an end?

[shaft.ed]

I for one agree with shafted, ZA is playing differently..that being said, the only game I have been in with Za he was scum...Shafted, how many of ZA's games have you read? any game stick out to you that is completed you can reference? or are you just blowing smoke?

I read two, MAD II and I forgot the other one a while ago so I don't remember specific instances. I do know that he had a rather reckless style in MADII, but I think it's still ongoing so it's not OK to make specific references. I'll get some examples up later today if I have the time.

[shaft.ed]

I'm currently reading through 511 Match of Championswhere he's town playing like an arrogant confrontational bastard, but he has a theory.

[shaft.ed]

Welcome Fonz and Cicero, very happy to see two prolific posters added to the game.

Fonz I agree with your night action ideas as "best theoretical course of action" but as I've said before something that choreographed is to the town's disadvantage. If the scum know what we're doing they can work around it.

I'm not liking ZA's last post. The switch from No Lynch, to "if you lynch, lynch Shea" is disturbing as it has been pointed out that there are roles worse than vanilla. I do understand his annoyance with being hounded for a lynch, but sticking your fingers in your ears and calling on appeals to your role power is not the best way for a townie to defend himself.

[shaft.ed]

Adele this information in regards to Oman is all pretty old news. How come it becomes interesting once Fonz brings it up?

[shaft.ed]

Unsure of where I stand with shaft.ed now. He's dropped a lot of the horrible, crappy, arguments on me that he had early on.

Still waiting for you to even attempt to show that these were horrible crappy arguments. If you'd like I can go through the thread and record the number of times you've stated such and the number of times I've requested you to demonstrate to which you still haven't responded. Just repeating something over and over doesn't make it so.

[shaft.ed]

Seol could we get a prod/replacement on YvonneSeer hasn't posted in thread since Dec 19 or on site since Dec 29th.

[shaft.ed]

So JDodge, how's it hanging?

[shaft.ed]

Care to describe this plan?

I'd love to, Unfortunatly, it relies on nobody knowing it.

Wait... you have a master plan, but we don't get to know it? What, any of it? How do you know people won't do the wrong thing?
More to the point, why should I believe you? If this master plan is a reason for you not to be lynched today, then how do I know that you're not scum lying in desperate hope you can make something plausible up tomorrow (doesn't actually have to work if you're not submitting it to public scrutiny, you can just say "whoops! didn't notice that flaw in the plan") or at least assist your co-scum with your skill tonight?

Agree with above sentiment. I will however attempt to figure out this master plan of Oman's, and if I do I will consider changing my vote. But I highly doubt it exists.

Also I'm paying attention to the CKD/Gorgon exchange but would like it to play out without interference. I will say it has a tinge of distancing as there is a lot of firey rhetoric with not so much substance.

[shaft.ed]

So reading TSQ and YvonneSeer's posts in rapid succession makes me particularly suspicious of YvonneSeer.

[shaft.ed]

How so, shaft.ed?

Well TSQ makes a comment that the people who disappeared (namely you and JDodge) may be scum trying to hide (should say not likely in my limited experience, but possible). Then you state that your vote for Oman dates back to the random stage but you don't find him (specifically anyone) particularly scummy. This is reinforced by stating you'll probably only vote Oman or No Lynch, even though you presumably don't find him scummy. However, you contrast this with a bad feeling about Adele that you can't explain. This contrasts with your vote and not finding anyone scummy. And also looks like you're trying to look as though you are "scum hunting" even though you're contradicting yourself.


@Oman, I've racked my brain and I cannot think of any particular use of your power that would easily out scum tonight. I would suggest if you feel your lynch is unavoidable you divulge your plan as it may prevent the loss of a townie if that should be your alignment. I personally find you much scummier after that statement and The Fonz and Adele have already pointed out the inconsistencies. Seeing as how deadline is approaching, I think this "claim" might be due soon.

[shaft.ed]

Oman, What Shea said. If you're dead, I don't see your plan working too well.

JDodge, did you get caught up yet?

Gorgon and CKD, it's not like either of you to just suddenly cease an argument that is that heated, where'd you go?

cicero, I hope you're getting better, but we're five days from deadline, input would be very much appreciated as Zindaras posted nothing the entire day.

[shaft.ed]

Oman, What Shea said. If you're dead, I don't see your plan working too well.

JDodge, did you get caught up yet?

Gorgon and CKD, it's not like either of you to just suddenly cease an argument that is that heated, where'd you go?

cicero, I hope you're getting better, but we're five days from deadline, input would be very much appreciated as Zindaras posted nothing the entire day.

[shaft.ed]

Why? Because he told me. All the games I'm in where people say they are town out loud like that, they end up being town.

I guess we have differing experience, but I find that most people jumping out saying I'm Town in there first post end up scum. Also your whole post about D1 is bizzaro world is a bit off IMO, but I don't think a full discussion of it will help this game especially as the site seems to be acting up so I'll leave it alone.

How many people just have to make shit up in an attempt to get me lynched?

I don't recall cicero trying to get you lynched. Can you tell me again who is the one making shit up? And ZA please address the twice repeated repeat of the argument that scumAdele having investigative powers is in fact a hinderance to them.

I can actually think of more mafia uses for a bus driver than SK ones, hence I find it odd that you are concerned about Oman being Sylar specifically.

It's not concern that Oman already IS scum it's concern that his power can become a scum ability if Sylar kills him.

[shaft.ed]

and there is also the idea of her giving her power to Adele. So on some night Sylar can come in and take that power.

If Sylar kills Adele he only gets the Absorbing power not the powers already absorbed.

[shaft.ed]

who can't be tracked to a kill

I don't think I've noticed that part.

[shaft.ed]

OK, so he can't mess with the tracker, but the watcher role is still in play. So he's still dangerous to one of the two investigative roles. And I'm still finding him scummy.

Oman if you claim your plan and it makes some sense I would seriously consider moving my vote. I think that claim was one of the scummiest things you've done and I don't believe that you can reliably out scum as you can at best effect three people in the game any given night phase. I truly don't know why its taking you so long to get back to us on this, are you having touble coming up with one?

[shaft.ed]

No cic, he said he could out scum with it.

Here's Oman after being pressured by TSQ after he No Lynch vote

Because, TSQ, I've developed a plan for tonight that will give us a large ammount of information (actually its more tomorrow morning).

Here he's giving a little bit more about what his "plan" actually will do:

There is a way that could easily out scum, but doesn't really confirm a town. It has issues within it, which I will also explain tomorrow.

[shaft.ed]

The Mafia "Thing" says this:

Each night one of you (and only one of you) may target a player and kill them. If you do, you may not use any other night or day choice your role would normally allow you to use until the following night

Wouldn't it be logical that the mafia would use someone WITHOUT a power to make the kill? Thus I was planing to redirect ZONEACE onto either TSQ or Adele (as both are, at present, powerless, and thus candidates for mafia kill). Unfortunatly, this would not work on Sylar (thus I said "Doesn't really confirm a town") unless it was done at a later night to TSQ who would then have power.

Also, ZONEACE (who could be mafia with them) would then reveal YES I FOUND THA KILLER! When his results came up, thinking he could get a town lynched and blame me or someone else for distorting. That way we would have found if Shea/Adele was mafia/Town+sylar.

Um you also have Mathcam, Jdodge, CKD, cicero, The Fonz and gorgon available to perform the mafia NK. In other words your plan only works if the mafia team consists of Yvonne, ZA and myself.

[shaft.ed]

Shea or Adele doing the kill is even stoopider because neither of them has any business targeting anyone. If they get caught by say a Watcher, what the hell are they going to say?

If JDodge and CKD use their power they are going to have a lot of explaining to do. However if CKD targets someone and they die he's got a lot of explaining to do since that should not be happening so he goes with the Shea/Adele group. Cicero's power is perfect cover for a NK because he doesn't really need any particular reason to target someone. The Fonz won't protect from Sylar so he doesn't have to use his power at all if mafia. Finally Gorgon goes with the Shea/Adele/CKD group as not having a targeting power so he's got a lot of explaining to do if caught. And he is free to kill every other night.

[shaft.ed]

Mathcam, I have to disagree Re: Oman's plan. It consisted of simply redirecting ZA's investigation to player's who were the least likely to be killing anybody, yet he stated it could "easily out scum." First of all, we had a discussion earlier specifically telling Oman not to mess with the investigative roles, this plan goes against that. Secondly he's redirecting to players that don't have night actions thus have no cover if they are caught by a tracker/watcher thus they're only making NK's if they're Sylar who can't be seen by a tracker. This doesn't sound like a strategy that anyone would believe to work.

I still think Oman is the most scummy today and removing his power will also be better off for the town.

Finally, CKD I hope it's because you haven't been reading the thread due to connectivity but please know what you're talking about before you post.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah...so that deadline's tommorow guys. Anybody home?

[shaft.ed]

Well please explain to me what you are doing here.

Were you paying any attention at all to Oman's master plan? I was proving beyond any doubt that the plan was not going to work and if enacted would have been antitown regardless of Oman's alignment. Yet your still harping on your stale argument that I'm trying to tell people what to do, which I wasn't even doing. You have some serious authority issues.

Also, I note again that you seem to be supporting your vote on Oman for what seems to be like role reasons versus, you think he is scum reasons.

If this were a normal game I would feel comfortable lynching Oman right now. The only bias is that I have been pressuring him more than I probably would have, but I think the anti-town leaning roles need to be playing as more clearly protown. I stated this very early in the day and Oman continued playing with a scummy leaning. We have the Doc redirecting to him, the not wanting to pass powers to Adele, the "I'm going to lie" comment, the opprotunistic ZA vote, the poor plan and other actions that I see as scummy.

what do you care, if nobody posts before deadline the man you “want” to hang…hangs.

Yeah God forbid we should have any discussion in this game. Before my post yesterday Adele hadn't posted since the 9th, cicero since the 11th, you since the 12th, gorgon since the 11th, JDodge is gone, Mathcam since the 12th, the Fonz sicne the 11th, TSQ since the 11th, Yvonne since the 9th, and ZA since the 11th. This is the day before deadline and most people haven't posted in thread for 3 days.

[shaft.ed]

Oman that argument is laughably garbage. I was after you because you insisted that passing INVESTIGATIVE powers to Adele was a bad idea despite my multiple arguments that it would be useful regardless of her alignment. I attacked you for suggesting that passing YOUR powers might be beneficial and you denied that you made such suggestions. You might try reading the thread before making such ridiculous claims.

Redirecting the Doc to you is not damn powerful if the Doc is the scum because as I stated many times they don't want you dead. You are an excuse for them if they get caught preforming NK's, your role is anti-town why would they target you for a NK?

Also, there are MANY reasons why the scum would want state they will lie. Like when the get caught lying, which they have to do, they might talk their way out of it.

Finally your strategy was clearly antitown. Toying with the investigative powers leads to a "who do we believe" conundrum which is something we do NOT want.

[shaft.ed]

Just curious if it is wise to have full disclosures at this juncture. For example, do we really want the mafia to know what power Adele has at this moment (or if she has one though that's already been discussed).

Cicero, I got the PM Sunday. I'm not really on much over the weekends and since Monday was a holiday here I didn't have much internet access until the day already started. I think the way that mechanism works wil make it difficult to have a back and forth with new recruits because your Nightchoice doesn't register until after the Gorgon, CKD and the two killing roles have weighed in.

[shaft.ed]

Well I think my power is the next least vital. I targeted Yvonne last night. She thus had two watches for the evening.

[shaft.ed]

Also, discuss whether Gorgon should or should not reveal whether he phased out on nights.

Maybe we should also discuss whether or not YvonneSeer is Sylar?

[shaft.ed]

He's the person in the game that would most like to know whether or not Gorgon phased out last night. I can't see any townie wanting to make that information public, however it would be mildly useful to mafia.

[shaft.ed]

He's the person in the game that would most like to know whether or not Gorgon phased out last night. I can't see any townie wanting to make that information public, however it would be mildly useful to mafia.

Im a townie and I want access to that information. Especially after what CKD just said.

I heartily disagree. It's now obvious that Sylar either targeted Gorgon or nobody last night. Since Sylar would benefit from this ability and I would argue clearly expressed interest in it, I don't think it's a good idea for the whole town to know whether or not Gorgon still has the ability to phase out tonight.

[shaft.ed]

Yes, in fact, Gorgon is most likely to be the SK at this point, and a rather dangerous SK if so.

I'd argue Gogron is the least likely to be the SK. CKD is basically a SK Doc, he targeted Gorgon and no one was killed by the SK last night. It's not rocket science.

[shaft.ed]

Yes, in fact, Gorgon is most likely to be the SK at this point, and a rather dangerous SK if so.

I'd argue Gogron is the least likely to be the SK. CKD is basically a SK Doc, he targeted Gorgon and no one was killed by the SK last night. It's not rocket science.

Or, Gorgon is the SK and he got Jailed.

That shaft.ed guy is clearly a moron.

[shaft.ed]

Well simple numerical odds are greatly in favor of Gorgon being the SK. But it should be noted that Gorgon's role is probably one of the most useful to the SK if not the most so he would be a likely target.

[shaft.ed]

Fonz, Seol clearly stated that the mafia would use a gun. The SK will remove the brain of the person they kill. So the missed kill was certainly the SK.

[shaft.ed]

I suggest that from now on, until at least the SK performs a kill, ckd jails Gorgon every night.

I support this sentiment as well.

Seems as though it would be good to hear from DGB and mathcam before we hear from Yvonne.

[shaft.ed]

I find that doubtful

QFT. If he didn't want to get caught he could have just killed Yvonne then noone can link it to him. There's no other danger involved.

[shaft.ed]

I got motivated. My watch targets were Adele and shaft.ed.

Nobody targetted Adele.

And cicero did indeed target shaft.ed.

I'm finding this bit about me VERY out of place. There's very little reason for a scum group to kill me. Sylar would get nothing form the motivation, and scum would likely keep me around after pushing a mislynch so hard. It's also very handy that cicero already admitted to targeting me. I'm finding this choice very suspicious.

FoS Yvonne

Seol, if I motivate mafia will they be able to use their power and perform a NK, not just two power choices?

@ DGB. Like Adele said, the roles are separate from alignments. We picked our roles in advance and Seol then randomly assigned us to groups. The role drafting is in the first couple pages. Also, Gorgon and CKD "go first" that is their powers are considered first, then scum NK's then powers. So you couldn't block Gorgon's ability even if you tried. You can only effect Me, Adele, Yvonne, The Fonz and Mathcam on any given night. Most of those choices would be antitown btw.

[shaft.ed]

Could Goof be Sylar? A Goof-sylar could dampen Gorgon's ability to hide, and kill him the same night.

That's a good point, but again why the hell would she admit to doing it. No one would ever know. Also it wouldn't work as I stated above, but DGB obviously didn't know that.

[shaft.ed]

I totally agree with the idea that Yvonne should go last. I just wanted to point out what I found odd about it. I still don't know why I'd be a NK. Once, the investigative/Doc roles are gone or in scum hands I'm a vanilla. I really don't see why scum would fear my role. And I did such a good job scum hunting yesterday I'm sure they're worried about me outing them.

Gorgon are you home?

[shaft.ed]

Actually Cam I think odds are greater than 50/50. But it sure would be nice to hear from Gorgon.

[shaft.ed]

I'm gone til Monday. Have a good weekend.

[shaft.ed]

OK after an unexpected extension to my trip (thanks much Delta, he said sarcastically) I'm back in town. I did try to keep up with the thread while away, but I'm still a bit foggy. All I can say it I now understand what it means to be goofballed. I'll try to wade through the postings to converse on various relevant topics.

I will say that I am troubled that Gorgon has posted once since either being targeted by Sylar or being Sylar. In that post he does a rather thorough job of defending himself from DGB. I find the over defensiveness scummy.

[shaft.ed]

God there's still too much for me to catch up on. I don't like posting with a partial view of what's going on, but I do want to say that I liked DGB's recent review of Yvonne. And add that if you find Yvonne's targeting of me to be odd, which I do, she's likely scum that had to add in a second target after Adele.

Also I'm highly likely to be voting Gorgon once I get caught up. I just checked and he's active on this site with almost total blackout within this game. I think he's just hoping this will blow over, or someone else will slip up before he faces a lynch.

[shaft.ed]

I think from the description of my power the answer is no but could you answer this one for me

Seol, if I motivate mafia will they be able to use their power and perform a NK, not just two power choices?

I think it's fairly relevant as to whether Yvonne's mafia or not.

[shaft.ed]

Well, I'm here. I'm dismayed that shaft.ed calls my response to DBG's analysis 'overdefensiveness'. I'm sure people will appreciate that I'm in a precarious position, and therefore don't like spurious attacks on me. I'm also almost insulted by the fact that shaft.ed saw no reason to address DGB's analysis, nor my response, as such - the only thing that seems to matter is that she threw accusations against me, and I defended myself. Bah.

You're right I do think my point about your DGB defense may have been a bit unfair, I was short on time. I'll try to get something more lengthy about it up today.

Yvonne is also interesting. I actually do like DBG's case against her. Also, I note that the only guy she ever voted for was Oman, right at the bat - a random vote. What's up with that? Apart from this, she threw out only one FOS. Hardly evidence of persistent scumhunting.

This is a good point. I find that some newer scum tend to vote very infrequently so as to avoid being linked to any lynches. I'll meta Yvonne to look for general D1 voting patterns.

[shaft.ed]

I don't have a huge amount of time, but I could get down with the Gorgon lynch (since I don't see a flaw in Mathcam's stats)

Call me crazy but I thought Mathcam's stats decreased the likelihood that Gorgon was Sylar. Did I misinterperate something here?

[shaft.ed]

OK brief meta of Yvonne and I'm not seeing her lack of voting as a tell, this is pretty much normal for her playstyle. Also seeing as how she would have had to target two people, or perform the NK I don't find her targeting of me as suspicious as I had previously thought unless Adele is covering for her as a scum partner. But that would be an incredibly bad idea as Adele then has to make up investigation results tonight. Of course she could be a non-killing member of the mafia. But overall I'm not liking the case against Yvonne as much as before.

In regards to Gorgon. He's certainly more mathematically likely to be the SK, but what about his role. I'd say Gorgon's power is clearly of most use to Sylar. So how do people think that effects the numbers?

[shaft.ed]

DGB it's pretty simple, There was no Sylar (SK) kill last night. Gorgon was locked up by CKD which is the only way to stop a Sylar kill. Therefore 1) Gorgon was the target of Sylar and was protected by CKD 2) Gorgon is Sylar and CKD prevented him from killing last night 3) Sylar chose not to kill last night and Gorgon being locked up is irrelevant or actually a frame up. The reason that Gorgon's role is relevant to the scenario is not because it is inherently pro-scum or pro-town but it would be very useful to a SK. Since in this game the SK takes role powers from their victim's it is more likely than random that Gorgon would have been Sylar's target. Conversely, since Gorgon was jailed and there was no NK he is about five times more likely to be Sylar than anyone else in the game according to Mathcam's analysis.

And I admit I'm doing a poor job of participating in this game. I'll try to get up to snuff.

[shaft.ed]

trying to speed through the day

^This basically^.

I haven't had the chance to get any analysis in and a few people that normally are more active haven't been. I'd prefer a little more discusion even if we do lynch Gorgon becuase I think we need more info in case he comes up as Sylar's target.

[shaft.ed]

Welp at least I made it in time for twilight. I very much doubt Gorgon will turn up mafia as he's got noone defending him, but there is certainly a decent case to be made that he is the SK so not too upset with the hammer. Also we haven't gotten much in the way of mafia leads today, that's a shame. I won't blame anyone becuase I was one of the very light contributors on the day so it is my fault as well.

I'd say it's very likely there are at least one or two scum on the Gorgon wagon. Being that he is either town or SK, it'd be an easy vote for scum. And getting this day over with avoiding much in the way of discussion while possibly taking out Sylar would be a good day for them.

Cicero this struck me as strange:

The Gorgon lynch worries me just because that role is something Sylar might want. That being said, there was something about the way Yvonne swooped in that made me think maybe we'd caught scum anyway. A feeble contribution, I know. I will look for more.

First if you're worried about the Gorgon lynch, why are you on it. Second what does Yvonne swooping in make you think you'd caught scum? Gorgon is being lynched today on suspicion of being Sylar, he then shouldn't have a partner to protect him.

Adele why the hammer before giving Gorgon a day or so to claim his phasing choice?

[shaft.ed]

lol, why dont we see what he turns out as before we start laying groundwork for tomorrow's lynch.

Yeah that's exactly what I was doing

The funny thing is Shaft.ed is the one guy who can ask me via PM as soon as night starts. :p

If either of us are NK'd that really doesn't do any good. I wanted to make sure I was misunderstanding something about your suspicions of Yvonne. But I think I see what you were getting at.

[shaft.ed]

lol, why dont we see what he turns out as before we start laying groundwork for tomorrow's lynch.

Yeah that's exactly what I was doing
.

your sarcasm is noted, but what exactly is the point of throwing suspicion on people BEFORE we know gorgon's alignment?

I really don't understand what you're getting at. I mean if Gorgon was at L-1 I'd still be asking the same question. I realize there is a slight difference since it is certain he will be lynched and alignment revealed, but I don't see it as that great seeing how it was quite evident Gorgon was the most likely play for the day. I also wanted clarification as I thought I might be missing something, and that was the case.

[shaft.ed]

that is not entirely true...if Gorgon was just at -1, you would not be making statements like "it is likely that is 1 or 2 scum on his wagon". You dont even know his alignment yet to make such statements.

No I would. I stand by that statement. I don't think he's a poor lynch choice but looking at the situation it is highly likely scum would get behind such a wagon.

[shaft.ed]

Then I guess I'll be eating crow. The case against him was entirely SK based. I don't see how one could've concluded he were mafia based on the evidence presented.

[shaft.ed]

I just want to point out to people with relevant night actions that Gorgon's wagon likely contains scum on it. I think that is a useful statement to make, and I explained why I thought there are likely mafia on it. I'm not just making a blanket statement with no reasoning so as to lead people astray or set up a lynch in the future. However, as you pointed out, if he turns up mafia, which I do not think is likely, my presumption is incorrect.

[shaft.ed]

Well I'm happy going first. I tried to add Adele to my network and it failed.

Hmm, so you got a reply that it failed or she just didn't respond. I guess you know the difference since you knew yesterday that I didn't reply.

OK so either DGB or CKD targetd Adele would either or you like to come forward with said info? And an explanation would also go well with that since she was one of our only investigative roles.

[shaft.ed]

I think I agree with TSQ and Fonz. I really don't know what information would be gleaned from him revealing his targets. If he's scum he's probably sending in viable candidates anyway. If he's town it just helps the scum to know what he's doing every night. Unless he gets caught by a watcher, which would be pretty unlikely at this point, I don't see a point in it.

[shaft.ed]

I would like CKD to tell my why Adele was locked up last night.

[shaft.ed]

shafted, why couldnt you let Yvonne declare first before pressuring me to claim?

Yvonne couldn't have successfully targeted Adele, cicero already gave that informaiton away. Therefore, your target was already known and bears no matter on what Yvonne says. Your explanation while thorough, I'm not sure I like it.

However, I do agree that Yvonne needs to go first today. While she will keeps liars honest, who is to catch her in a lie. Besides there is only myself and Fonz left if I'm correct. Doesn't matter a whole lot at this point since Adele was jailed and all that. I'm willing to go first if others object.

[shaft.ed]

So I was going to target one of the two people I was sure did nothing yesterday. I was torn between targeting Shea and Adele.

You do realize that Adele was a WATCHER last night. That's hardly nothing. You also had Mathcam, DGB and cicero to pick from for nothing.

[shaft.ed]

So I was going to target one of the two people I was sure did nothing yesterday. I was torn between targeting Shea and Adele.

You do realize that Adele was a WATCHER last night. That's hardly nothing. You also had Mathcam, DGB and cicero to pick from for nothing.

CKD I may have misunderstood as to what yesterday refers to. If so I apologize in advance. But still would like to know why you locked up the watcher, and it's interesting that Mathcam was not on your nothing list yet turns up dead.

[shaft.ed]

CKD, I misunderstood what you meant by yesterday with that post. By yesterday you meant N1, not N2. Also I was off in saying DGB should have been in your "did nothing" pool, but that targeting the day before could have easily been faked as it's not confirmed. I think of the roles more as not useful, or harmful to town. DGB fits into that category so would make an obvious choice for a jailkeeper. And she also fits into your group of people that either couldn't have, or may not have done anything N1. If your refering to the fact that your or DGB could have blocked cicero, that's not the case. Cicero does not have a power, therefore he cannot be blocked or motivated by DGB or myself.

And I still don't like your explanation for jailing Adele. I don't think she'd be the one making the kill even if she were mafia.

Anyway I liked the formating of the flow of night actions, I think I will try to make an exclusionary list based on the assumption that those choices are truthful.

[shaft.ed]

Well I think DGB should hold off. While Yvonne can't target DGB, DGB may have blocked a potential target from landing their power.

And Adele absorbs powers. Yvonne targeted Adele N1 so Adele now has Yvonne's power to use. Note that she will not absorb your power since you dampen her ability to absorb so please don't target her.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Yvonne please go.

[shaft.ed]

CKD I don't know why your splitting that hair but

You do realize that Adele was a WATCHER last night.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah I think we both now understand what we did not. I won't make that any easier to read though as to maintain the confusion

[shaft.ed]

And Shea since his role is to do nothing. Speaking of which.....

[shaft.ed]

I'm the only other person left to claim. It's really not that important the order of the claims unless Yvonne thinks I'm scum that submitted the kill. Her reluctance to claim is interesting. But I have to say CKD, the watchers making the kill is quite a strange scenario. They can easily let a partner do it and target someone at no risk of dying since they know where the kill is going. I really don't think they'd be making the kill if they were scum but that's just my opinion I suppose.

[shaft.ed]

Man I had a big long post all ready to go in my head and then an you guys went and filled up the thread making all my points pretty moot, though I doubt she would have picked up on Mathcam.

I targeted Adele last night hence my annoyance at CKD for jailing her.

DGB your turn.

[shaft.ed]

DGB?

Yvonne, why did you target the Fonz?

Shafted, why did you target Adele over Yvonne?

Trusted Adele more. Also to pass on my power.

[shaft.ed]

Hectic right now and a lot of posting going on. Just wanted to note I'm not liking Cicero much at the moment. I'll get into it in a bit. CKD I'd rather you have jailed DGB for the record, but I understand your actions and after catching Gorgon I'm willing to give you a some leeway in your decisions.

[shaft.ed]

she targeted shea in the event she needed an alibi, but scummy imo but better than blocking a useful role.

[shaft.ed]

A kill that escaped scrutiny because somebody unnecessarily locked up a watcher.

Do you honestly think that one of the watchers would have targeted Mathcam? I doubt Adele's being locked up had any effect outside of possibly confirming people's targets and me passing on my role to her, which is not incredibly high priority.

A few thoughts of mine. Sorry for the poor organization but I feel like some verbal diaharea at the moment. I think some of this will be conflicting so feedback would be cool.

A reason I don't think CKD is scum. If he were, the scum would know that Adele was locked up. They could have attempted a kill on Yvonne with only the risk of Doc protection and no risk of being caught. This seems like a good gambit to me. Only breaks down if Yvonne and CKD are scum, but then Fonz would be dead in that case not Mathcam. Therefore Yvonne and CKD are definitely not scumbuddies.

Cicero's comment earlier that Mathcam was responsible for Gorgon's lynch and thus he made a decent night kill is incorrect. CKD was directly responsible for ferriting out Gorgon. CKD can also do the same to mafia. I'm actually a bit surprised that Matchcam was targeted over CKD (add him to the long list of players that "shouldn't" be alive I guess). Cam hadn't really been doing anything in the game and his role isn't that scary to scum. However, it is much safer for scum to NK him as his lynch would very likely result in a vig'ing. He may have been on to someone. But I'm surprised the scum decided to pick off a peripheral role, because the core watching/protection roles get harder to hit as you remove unlikely NK candidates. They may be afraid of running into Watching/Doc protection but I think it more likely at least one scum is from the Watcher/Doc group. Do we take a chance at making it easier for scum and lynching one of them?

If CKD were scum, locking up a scumbuddy gives them both a good alibi and a bit of bus'ing. Not using this to cast suspicion on CKD, just want this thought out there on the off chance his alignment is revealed as scum.

Can DGB be watched? I know she can't be targeted but if performing a NK she can be watched right? If not, she'd be the perfect person so submit the kill. However, if she can DGB-scum would have been more worried about Yvonne than ZONEACE N1. Thus less likely DGB is in the scum group.

Shaft.ed wants to give you a day because you caught us the serial killer.

This is a distortion of my view. I'm not giving him a day. I'm giving him more leeway. I'm a bit upset with his choice but I do not find it scummy. Especially given the fact that Mathcam died. As I said above if the scum knew one watcher was out of commision they could easily have taken out someone more useful than Mathcam last night.

[shaft.ed]

For the record my post above is not in response to Adele's they were cross posted.

[shaft.ed]

that being said, there are 3 scum in this game. unless my math is incorrect we are at 5:3...a mislynch today and a NK tonight means we a 3:3 tomorrow...and if I am correct, that means we lose.

I think we have found out why the scum targeted Mathcam last night. They have enough kills from the unlikely to be watched/protected pool to take the game home. This furthers supports the idea that one of the Doc/watcher group is scum. Also trying to lynch Mathcam could mess up their LyLo status, but it also could have won the game for them so I don't think this is a large factor.

[shaft.ed]

Do you honestly think that one of the watchers would have targeted Mathcam? I doubt Adele's being locked up had any effect outside of possibly confirming people's targets and me passing on my role to her, which is not incredibly high priority.

This is, erm, disturbing. The notion that locking up Adele

did not cause the town harm

is not the same as the notion that it

could not have caused the town harm.

Imagine the situation where I didn't doc protect anyone or CKD jailed me, and say TSQ died.

Fonz you're taking my quote entirely out of context. This was in reply to cicero's inflammatory post:

A kill that escaped scrutiny because somebody unnecessarily locked up a watcher.

Here he's trying to make it sound as if Adele would have 100% been watching Mathcam last night. While I know this can't be known for certain, I would definitely put the odds of her not watching Cam much greater than the odds she would have.

So, the most logical candidate to be watched dies, with the jailor locking up one watcher and the other conveniently looking the other way at the time. I'd say that would draw suspicion pretty heavily onto the pair of them, no?

There are many viable players for Yvonne to have been watching last night besides yourself. Also the watchers don't want to overlap their watching targets so it's likely they will want to spread out the watching. There are soooo many ways that Yvonne can explain not watching you that are perfectly viable. CKD would likely have drawn more ire for jailing Adele but I don't see that gambit as incredibly more dangerous for such a pairing and it locks up today as LyLo.

[shaft.ed]

OK. I'm rethinking my CKD position at the moment. I'm not liking some of his appeals to emotion but I really think he is right. Mathematicaly speaking he is a horrible play for today. We know he's not the killing scum on either day this means he has only a 1/4 chance of being scum. Adele is the only other play from last night that has these same odds being 1/4. The rest of us are at 3/8 since no one's actions can be verified. Yes I know I posted yesterday that if CKD jailed Adele for this specific purpose we're screwed so if someone truly believes this please make a strong counter argument.

Additionally CKD and Fonz are the only chance of saving the town in a mislynch tonight. Should be noted that CKD can protect in two ways were the Fonz is only one. Finally, the Fonz cannot self protect thus with CKD out of the game the scum kill Fonz and it's completely over with a mislynch. Thus a CKD mislynch is a complete loss.

I'm going to do a thorough review of the last two day's night actions to try and come up with some useful insights. I'll try to get that up in a bit.

[shaft.ed]

Sorry for making promises I can't keep. I won't be getting up that night aciton analysis for a little while. But hopefully it will come today.

[shaft.ed]

OK I'm about ready to push for a cicero lynch. Only thing really holding me back is the fact that he is confirmed targeting Adele last night and I have to read up on him more. But not liking his recent posting much at all.

[shaft.ed]

I can't keep up with the deluge but:

And we can survive my mislynch more easily than Yvonne's because hey - we have the doc AND the jailkeeper, right? That's why you are so indispensible. So if you are going to mislynch anyway - vote me. That leaves you with a powerful townforce in a tight situation 2 to 3 watchers, a doc, a jailkeeper. All my power does is let me give myself an NK alibi.

You've got to be freaking kidding me. Avoiding the mislynch is far better than going to night praying that our Doc &/or Jailkeeper, both of whom could potentially be scum, get lucky. Screw it, even if JUST CKD is scum and we mislynch the game is over.

[shaft.ed]

Simple. You're the best play available. You aren't indispensible if you're scum because you'll just lock up the wrong person... oh wait. Like you just did. The watcher is pretty indispensible too, no? Because if the doc does block (and remember he can be motivated as well), the lead might require the watcher. So this whole indispensability thing cuts both ways.

We're all indespensible. LyLo and all you know.

Then the game is pretty much over. These minis at this stage pretty much require a vigilante for the town to do well as near as I can tell. Or blind luck.

If you really think Yvonne is scum, go for it. Lynch her. If you think me AND yvonne are scum. Lynch me. That's all.

So since the numbers are bad we should just lynch without much discussion. great plan.

Shafted, your thoughts on Yvonne? Your thoughts on Fonz's post then her claim?

I would love to but I really should have been doing work about 45 minutes ago. Damn things always get good when I'm busy.

[shaft.ed]

Does this make sense to anyone? Adele, CKD and cicero are the scum. They all have an alibi based solely on CKD's action. Cic was free to make the NK while one of the watcher's is locked up. Now they can bus the hell out of one another just in case one of them is lynched. How crazy is this idea?

OK back to work, just had one of those "just maybe" moments and wanted to share.

[shaft.ed]

one of the watcher's is locked up.

Always good to find inconsistancies in your own argument before you post them.

[shaft.ed]

CKD while I can get quick jabs up, I'm not having time right now to do massive rereads or analysis.

Yvonne handled DGB's attacks from yesterday quite well a lot of them centered around two people who have turned up dead (note that means it's unlikely for DGB to be scum if Yvonne is town as DGB's was setting up Yvonne for a lynch but the choice of Mathcam ruined this possibility). But afterall they were from DGB so I'm not sure how much weight to put into that. Gorgon did the same yesterday. I am still quite concerned about her claim reluctance and not sure if she answered your question about who she was hoping to catch by holding out. But overall I need to look for more reasons than the reluctance. The only reason for her to be reluctant is if she put in the kill, and I really don't see the scum sending out a watcher to make the kill unless it was needed due to other roles, and the fact that they knew she could go last.

And that scenario would work with Yvonne or Adele as scum, just Adele is a little more dangerous since it leaves a watcher out in the open, but Mathcam was an unlikely target for watching. I think it's even better with Adele because the whole group gets a clearly confirmed alibi.

[shaft.ed]

Personally at this point I think it's extremely likely that both Yvonne and CKD are scum; I currently think that each of them is probably scum. As such, I'm up for a lynch on either on of them, but recent exchanges make me happier with a lynch on CKD.

Adele your logic fails here. If you think that Yvonne and CKD are both scum you should always lynch Yvonne. Why? Because if you are wrong having CKD alive is the only scenario by which the town has any chance to live another day.

[shaft.ed]

And that retarded scenario I post was more of a "we're totally screwed if this happened." I don't think I'm going to pursue it further.

[shaft.ed]

OK so here are some observations I hope to use to create possible scum pairings, please critique the validity.

Relationships:

1) If DGB is scum Yvonne a likely parnter. This is because the watcher is the only role that can catch DGB. Without a watcher the Haitian makes the perfect assassin for mafia. However, ZONEACE the tracker, who can't investigate DGB, was killed N1. One would argue that a tracker or a watcher would be equal risk targets. So I think the most likely scenario for a DGB scum is that she didn't have to worry about a watcher. Also note since Yvonne passed on to Adele she may be a third party.

2) Yvonne and The Fonz are not likely scum partners. Yvonne was very reluctant to claim today, but only my and The Fonz's targets where unknown. Since I'm only going to target from Yvonne, The Fonz or Adele Yvonne would have already known if the Fonz was motivated or not. This reluctance makes me believe they are not aligned.

3) If Yvonne is scum Adele is a likely partner. I don't think scum Yvonne would have passed her powers out to the town. Yet she suggested this strategy early D1. The only way I see this as likely is that Yvonne knew her powers would be contained within the mafia.

4) Alternative theory to above is that Yvonne is paird with CKD. Knowing that LyLo would result from one more successful kill they knew they could contain the watcher if they could jail her for one night and not worry about it. More risky since the SK was not out of the game at the time. Thus less likely.

NK's:
Night 1:

Cicero targeted me, confirmed
CKD jailed Gorgon confirmed
Yvonne targeted me and Adele, confirmed (Adele would have to be scum partner for this to work).
shaft.ed targeted Yvonne confirmed (Yvonne would have to be scum for this to work)
DGB targeted Gorgon unconfirmed

Must be killer: Fonz, DGB, TSQ/CES, Adele

NK's Night 2:

CKD targeted Adele confirmed
Adele was jailed confirmed
cicero targeted Adele confirmed (CKD would have to be scum for this to work)
Yvonne targeted the Fonz unconfirmed
shaft.ed targeted Adele unconfirmed
DGB targted TSQ/CES unonfirmed

Must be killer: Yvonne, shaft.ed, DGB, Fonz, TSQ/CES

So one of Adele, TSQ/CES, The Fonz or DGB killed N1. We know Adele didn't kill N2. So it seems that TSQ/CES, The Fonz or DGB would be the way to go for today.

[shaft.ed]

3) If Yvonne is scum Adele is a likely partner. I don't think scum Yvonne would have passed her powers out to the town. Yet she suggested this strategy early D1. The only way I see this as likely is that Yvonne knew her powers would be contained within the mafia.

An Yvonne-Adele pairing seems unlikely based on play though. Why are you looking at role actions in a vacuum? You are not a physicist.

I mean, otherwise, I think it's a good observation, and makes me think Yvonne is not scum. (If Yvonnescum -> Adelescum, then also: Yvonnescum -> Yvonnescum & Adelescum and Not(Yvonnescum&Adelescum) -> Not(Yvonnescum).)

How can you fail to take 42 pages of info into account when you're making your analysis?

CES it's not in a vacuum. I just want to get these role interaction points out there. As you said Yvonne & Adele is not incredibly likely. Thus I feel that since bringing up that point I'm finding Yvonne less likely scum.

“cicero targeted Adele confirmed (CKD would have to be scum for this to work)”

By "work" I mean to perform the NK and still have the neccessary information to make the claim. Only way cicero could have made the kill and known Adele was locked up is if you told her at night.

Sorry for the helter skelter posting. Not a lot of time to get my thoughts in.

[shaft.ed]

There is only one possible town explanation for how he would know that. That cicero's recruit attempt failed could mean either Adele or cicero were jailed. That shaft.ed seemed to know that it was Adele who was imprisoned made it obvious.

Actually I assumed cic wasn't jailed because I was able to chat with him all night long. I figured if he was looked up he wouldn't be able to reply to me but we had a few posts back and forth. I received no feedback that Adele was locked up last night.

I have a lot of reading to catch up on but I think I'd like to follow CES' recommendation that we No Lynch.

[shaft.ed]

What, we don't have a doc and a motivator on team, giving us potentially 2 protects tonight? Besides, you don't leave a scummy nightkiller alive because he might be vig, not sk - you lynch the scummiest people rather than count on them to save the town.

Not to keep harping on this but the Doc can't self protect. If The Fonz is the only protector left then scum kill him game over.

I think the threat of Adele receiving more powersought to be enough to force the scum kill. I don't want to end discussion at this moment however, but I will be voting No Lynch barring any obvious scum reveals today.

[shaft.ed]

And you're sure that nothing can go wrong?

Scum has no reason to no-kill?

There's nothing wrong about a no-kill. We're just back where we are now with Adele possibly having new power(s) at her disposal.

[shaft.ed]

The only plus I see from doing it (no lynch) is that Adele could get Shaft.ed's power.

So you have no reason to believe The Fonz would pass his power on to Adele. Noted.

[shaft.ed]

I fail to see how having a pair of Docs that can circle protect is a bad thing. One suggestion I would like to put forward. And after your extensive post about what the mafia can figure out for themselves, I find it odd that you'd find such an obvious action something best left unsaid.

If we do No Lynch and no one comes up dead, I think it would be worth not disclosing our targets for the night unless one thinks they may be pertinent to catching scum. This will leave the mafia not knowing what new powers Adele may have or have not aquired during the night phase. If Adele is indeed town aligned this could be a big help.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP, my second sentence paragraph 1 should be first sentence paragraph 2. Sorry for the confusion.

[shaft.ed]

I'd like a popcorn claim if we are claiming. Vote on the first person to claim, then the claimer passes the hot potato until everyone has claimed.

[shaft.ed]

These two posts by Yvonne D1 and early D2 are troubling me as unsubstantial distancing from Adele:

Going by instinct however, I've a generally bad feeling about Adele. Can't really explain it.
...
I passed on my powers 'cause I thought the SK would kill me last night. The voices in my head are still screaming "Adele's scum!!!". No idea why.

[shaft.ed]

Does anyone think that MatchCam may have been killed to lessen the long case DGB made against Yvonne?

[shaft.ed]

Good point on the voting and lots of scum.

Dice work by saying 1d8 of the eight players. That number claims (number being order on front page). Then 1d7, so on until everyone gets a turn.

[shaft.ed]

Just in case it wasn't clear I advocate dice tommorow.

[shaft.ed]

Original Roll String: 1d8

1 8-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[shaft.ed]

cic, just type 1d8, highlight text, click dice button up top.

[shaft.ed]

yeah it will reroll each time you hit preview or submit.

[shaft.ed]

the first place, those of you who didn't even agree with watchers going last, you should have voiced out yesterday

Why would we want to have this discussion in advance of the claiming day so that the two watchers who each have a 3/8ths chance of being scum will know they are in the clera?

[shaft.ed]

Now, watching powers are useful for catching folk in lies, right? Except a watcher can, in fact, be scum. So a suggestion: as early as possible in the day, someone does a dicetags post with (say) 9 sides; if it's 1-4 Yvonne and I both wait to the end to claim, if 5 or 6 I claim first/early, if 7 or 8 she does, if 9 we both do. By doing this in the morning if couldn't affect the nightchoices; if either she or I is scum then we're either crippled or high-risk, while if we're not the other scum still has the chance of being in significant danger.

Would like to note that Adele did propose a randomized claiming strategy but it greatly favored either her or Yvonne claiming at the end of the cycle.

[shaft.ed]

Does anyone think that MatchCam may have been killed to lessen the long case DGB made against Yvonne?

How would that work?

A large part of your case against Yvonne involved her following Mathcam and such. Killing Mathcam reveals him as town and shows that Yvonne may have been buddying someone she knew would be a reliable townie. I know this is bordering on the too townie fallacy, just wanted the idea out there.

[shaft.ed]

I'd characterise Yvonne's attacks on me as speculative wagon-building.

She never voted, how do you call this wagon building again?

[shaft.ed]

Yvonne, you never answered this and I really need to know. Who were you hoping ot catch in a lie by claiming last?

[shaft.ed]

DGB do these two posts seem conflicted to you?

Let me begin by stating that I am a bit concerned with a day that so far, has a single lynch candidate, and a single suspect, beyond the one I brought up (Yvonne Seer). Strategically speaking, it's a terrible idea to have days like that, because how are we going to be able to go back, and look at voting patterns, and root out the scum, if there's nothing but a single wagon? The wagon is also going a little too smoothly for my taste.

LIST OF PLAYERS TOO CHICKEN TO HAMMER THE OBVIOUS:

Adele
shaft.ed
YvonneSeer
The Fonz

Cluck cluck cluck cluck

[shaft.ed]

the chances are 3 in 8 that he (CKD) is scum

Again not to keep harping on this issue, but we know CKD didn't perform the NK so he is 2/8 chance of being scum.

I also am not fond of CKD's night choice and if we had a lynch to spare I would support his lynching for anti-town behavior. A part of me is afraid that he knew this and felt he could get away with it, as he was the one to bring up LyLo, but his lynch is not a risk I'm willing to take.

I'm still waiting on Yvonne to answer the million dollar question. Not going to say anything on her until she replies.

I haven't played with DGB but I do agree her play has made a complete 180 since Gorgon came up SK. Why so quiet today DGB?

I'm also not liking TSQ/CES when considering the ZONEACE NK. Hadn't thought about this before but it seems he may have been pushing on ZONEACE all D1 in hopes he would annoy the town or slip up to the point the he'd be lynched. This would make sense if aligned with the watcher as removing the tracker would be high priority.

I'm having a lot of trouble getting a read on the Fonz. DAS came of minorly scummy before being replaced. Fonz has been very composed and analytical throughout.

Adele also troubles me with her lack of posting. Getting a bit of a scum vibe from her.

Cicero seems to be moving around a lot today. I generally find that as a town tell, especially in situations where the decision will make or break the game.

[shaft.ed]

the chances are 3 in 8 that he (CKD) is scum

Again not to keep harping on this issue, but we know CKD didn't perform the NK so he is 2/8 chance of being scum.

Crapmath. That we know he didn't perform the nightkill does not make him less likely to be scum by an amount that can be quantified. How do you get to the number 2/8?

Because there are only two scum who didn't perform the NK last night?

[shaft.ed]

Good points you win 3/8 it is.

[shaft.ed]

DGB, your word count has gone way down as opposed to yesterday. But it does make sense that you would have less to analyze then when replacing directly into a game.

[shaft.ed]

I actually get the Battle Mage vibe off DGB- ie, she seems a lot less sure of herself, less bullheaded, than the usual DGB-town.

I guess you tipped her off.

[shaft.ed]

Does the dealer have a face card up?

[shaft.ed]

cicero, why did you want to talk to Adele last night?

[shaft.ed]

cicero, why did you want to talk to Adele last night?

Because of her utility. I liked the idea of being able to suggest who she should use her powers on. Same reason I targetted you.

You've never suggested to me who I should target in our conversations.

[shaft.ed]

Like how you leave TSQ and DGB off of that list. Very classy.