Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[shaft.ed]

I'd characterise Yvonne's attacks on me as speculative wagon-building.

She never voted, how do you call this wagon building again?

[shaft.ed]

Yvonne, you never answered this and I really need to know. Who were you hoping ot catch in a lie by claiming last?

[shaft.ed]

DGB do these two posts seem conflicted to you?

Let me begin by stating that I am a bit concerned with a day that so far, has a single lynch candidate, and a single suspect, beyond the one I brought up (Yvonne Seer). Strategically speaking, it's a terrible idea to have days like that, because how are we going to be able to go back, and look at voting patterns, and root out the scum, if there's nothing but a single wagon? The wagon is also going a little too smoothly for my taste.

LIST OF PLAYERS TOO CHICKEN TO HAMMER THE OBVIOUS:

Adele
shaft.ed
YvonneSeer
The Fonz

Cluck cluck cluck cluck

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB do these two posts seem conflicted to you?

No, because at some point, I realized that the chances of Gorgon being scum were so high that it left little room for alternate wagons. I did my best to try to generate interest in an Yvonne wagon, but Gorgon was too strong a competitor, haha.

[cicero]

OK, so folks. What's the play then?

Adele, Yvonne, CES?

A few random thoughts.

I'm still uncomfortable with the idea of

not

lynching CKD. The way I see it his play was glaringly anti-town / pro-scum and can only be described as the right chess move for scum on that day. Our corresponding best move is his lynch. I am more emboldened by the fact that, as his been pointed out, the chances are 3 in 8 that he is scum (as it is for us all). I also think that as nice as 4-3 is instead of 3-3, 5-2 is way better.

That having been said, I'm partial to CKD and my gut tells me that the scums are named Yvonne, Adele and Fonz. Which is problematic since they're the three towniest roles. The players who don't feel immediately scummy to me are CES (because of TSQs play more than CES's and that is mostly about TSQ's attacks on Zoneace, Shaft.ed and Dripping Goofball. However, smirking scum, obviously I'm a smart enough player to know that none of that means a damn thing.

I still think maybe the right play is to hold our noses, vote CKD and hope for the best.

BUT since it's a risky move there's obviously talk of going No Lynch, which I am currently voting for but am quite tepid about. Given the turmoil between my brain and my gut I can still go for it. But I'm still waiting for the quiet people to speak up.

I'm compelled by what Yvonne says when she talks but she isn't scumhunting, no matter what she says. Big scumtell for me. She's also constantly avoiding the question about who she planned to catch in a lie by going last. Yes. this is vacillation. She felt town when she responded to CKD but her overall play is a survivor's game. She isn't the only one though.

Adele's response to being jailed by CKD is underwhelming and her hesitance to post a lot concerns me. I know she has a busy life and some computer monitor issues, however. How are those things going Adele?

I think I need to re-read from the start again. But in the meantime love to here some thoughts from the quieter members please.

[The Fonz]

Cicero, why do you think DGB is town? Do you have any reason

DGB, who's scum?

Yvonne's constant pushing of 'why didn't you object to watchers going last! Why didn't you object to watchers going last!' is really quite scummy imho. Since no-one ever suggested a general policy of watchers going last, as has been repeatedly demonstrated. (In fact, perhaps the biggest boon of watchers for town is that it is, itself, a very easy role to catch in a lie).

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm compelled by what Yvonne says when she talks but she isn't scumhunting, no matter what she says. Big scumtell for me. She's also constantly avoiding the question about who she planned to catch in a lie by going last. Yes. this is vacillation. She felt town when she responded to CKD but her overall play is a survivor's game.

EXACTLY. I don't know whether it's you or another player, but because a Yvonne might be able to write one or two posts that "feel town" doesn't mean that she is town. She was way too reluctant to claim for my taste, and a few "townie feeling" posts don't cut it for me.

As for CKD - I totally buy into your argument, cicero. But other than his choice last night, he's acting and talking townie. Not just a few townie feeling posts in an overall scummy contribution, like Yvonne.

No lynch option - not keen on this. We're wasting an opportunity to catch scum, something that will help greatly the players that have night choices to choose optimal targets. I think we have good leads in Yvonne - CKD I'm less sure.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB, who's scum?

I don't know! Why didn't Yvonne vote Gorgon, yesterday? She seemed to support the lynch early in the day. Just askin'.

[The Fonz]

*cicero, do you have any reason beyond gut to suspect me, Yvonne, or Adele? Because quite a lot's happened in this game, and I think going by gut alone at this stage is, well, rather dodgy.

Thoughts on scum combinations coming.

[cicero]

Cicero, why do you think DGB is town? Do you have any reason

It's quite imperfect reasoning but her play, and the effort she's put into it, matched DGB town. Not today so much actually, but when she joined in.

I need to meta her as scum though, to be sure. Know of any games where she did all her crazy comparisons and turned up scum? Preferably games with one mafia.

Actually come to think of it, she had been less like that since Gorgon died leaving us with one mafia. That's worth thinking about. She may have no one to catch now.

[The Fonz]

Cicero, why do you think DGB is town? Do you have any reason

It's quite imperfect reasoning but her play, and the effort she's put into it, matched DGB town. Not today so much actually, but when she joined in.

I need to meta her as scum though, to be sure. Know of any games where she did all her crazy comparisons and turned up scum? Preferably games with one mafia.

I actually get the Battle Mage vibe off DGB- ie, she seems a lot less sure of herself, less bullheaded, than the usual DGB-town. I have a sense that DGB usually pushes some flawed case relentlessly as town, usually on Adele, and she hasn't done that.

[cicero]

Yeah. You might be right. But you'll recall her play was quieter in Doctor Who as well - remember MoS pointing it out? - and she came up town.

[cicero]

*cicero, do you have any reason beyond gut to suspect me, Yvonne, or Adele? Because quite a lot's happened in this game, and I think going by gut alone at this stage is, well, rather dodgy.

Thoughts on scum combinations coming.

It's complicated meta. But it all comes down to the fact that the three of you in this game post very deliberately and not more often than necessary. I find that more common in scum. Townies are quicker on the keyboard. More impulsive.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB usually pushes some flawed case relentlessly as town, usually on Adele, and she hasn't done that.

That's a pretty twisted, backhanded way to discredit my case against Yvonne.

Noted.

[shaft.ed]

the chances are 3 in 8 that he (CKD) is scum

Again not to keep harping on this issue, but we know CKD didn't perform the NK so he is 2/8 chance of being scum.

I also am not fond of CKD's night choice and if we had a lynch to spare I would support his lynching for anti-town behavior. A part of me is afraid that he knew this and felt he could get away with it, as he was the one to bring up LyLo, but his lynch is not a risk I'm willing to take.

I'm still waiting on Yvonne to answer the million dollar question. Not going to say anything on her until she replies.

I haven't played with DGB but I do agree her play has made a complete 180 since Gorgon came up SK. Why so quiet today DGB?

I'm also not liking TSQ/CES when considering the ZONEACE NK. Hadn't thought about this before but it seems he may have been pushing on ZONEACE all D1 in hopes he would annoy the town or slip up to the point the he'd be lynched. This would make sense if aligned with the watcher as removing the tracker would be high priority.

I'm having a lot of trouble getting a read on the Fonz. DAS came of minorly scummy before being replaced. Fonz has been very composed and analytical throughout.

Adele also troubles me with her lack of posting. Getting a bit of a scum vibe from her.

Cicero seems to be moving around a lot today. I generally find that as a town tell, especially in situations where the decision will make or break the game.

[The Fonz]

DGB usually pushes some flawed case relentlessly as town, usually on Adele, and she hasn't done that.

That's a pretty twisted, backhanded way to discredit my case against Yvonne.

Noted.

Why would I want to discredit anyone's Yvonne case when she's currently my suspect numero uno (along with Adele?) The fact that you seem less sure of yourself than you normally do as town is noteworthy, and trying to impugn my motives for pointing that out, in a manner that doesn't even make any sense only makes me more likely to conclude that you're the third cog to that little scenario.

[The Fonz]

the chances are 3 in 8 that he (CKD) is scum

Again not to keep harping on this issue, but we know CKD didn't perform the NK so he is 2/8 chance of being scum.

Crapmath. That we know he didn't perform the nightkill does not make him less likely to be scum by an amount that can be quantified. How do you get to the number 2/8?

[shaft.ed]

the chances are 3 in 8 that he (CKD) is scum

Again not to keep harping on this issue, but we know CKD didn't perform the NK so he is 2/8 chance of being scum.

Crapmath. That we know he didn't perform the nightkill does not make him less likely to be scum by an amount that can be quantified. How do you get to the number 2/8?

Because there are only two scum who didn't perform the NK last night?

[The Fonz]

Then why /8? There are two scum out of the

seven people

who did not perform the nightkill last night. And, since I would argue the verifiability of his action makes the odds of him being chosen to kill amongst pretty much any given scumgroup go down, (ie- IF he were scum he would be unlikely to NK anyway) then I don't think the odds of him being scum can be specified.

I completely fail to see how performing an action that potentially makes it easier for scum to get away with a nightkill makes his probability of being scum go

down

, which is the implication of that argument.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yeah, but jailkeeperscum is unlikely to make the kill. It would only go down to 2/8 if the nightkiller had been randomly chosen among the scum.

Vote: No Lynch

[cicero]

Listen - I'm a lawyer - I don't do math. Here's all I know. There are 3 scum and 5 townies. Eight players. CKD has a 3 in 8 chance of being scum. Literally.

[DrippingGoofball]

I haven't played with DGB but I do agree her play has made a complete 180 since Gorgon came up SK. Why so quiet today DGB?

Oh please. If you think I'm quiet, please support this with EVIDENCE. Don't be lazy and take some other guy's word for it. This isn't my only game, I have other Alts, sometimes I'm more busy here, sometimes I'm more busy there. Like cicero points out regarding the Doctor Who game - there was nothing going on in that game that ever fired me up - so I was town, and quiet. More quiet than here, actually.

[DrippingGoofball]

Listen - I'm a lawyer - I don't do math. Here's all I know. There are 3 scum and 5 townies. Eight players. CKD has a 3 in 8 chance of being scum. Literally.

I don't do math either, I stick to finger painting and Play-Doh.

The question is, do we want to play bold and take that risk, or play chicken and be safe? When we could lynch Yvonne?

[shaft.ed]

Good points you win 3/8 it is.

[shaft.ed]

DGB, your word count has gone way down as opposed to yesterday. But it does make sense that you would have less to analyze then when replacing directly into a game.