Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!


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Post Post #1050 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:25 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

one believes me...ugh...

so pissed
NO YOU'RE OVER DEFENSIVE
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Post Post #1051 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:02 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Adele wrote:Personally at this point I think it's extremely likely that both Yvonne and CKD are scum; I currently think that each of them is probably scum. As such, I'm up for a lynch on either on of them, but recent exchanges make me happier with a lynch on CKD.
Adele your logic fails here. If you think that Yvonne and CKD are both scum you should always lynch Yvonne. Why? Because if you are wrong having CKD alive is the only scenario by which the town has any chance to live another day.
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Post Post #1052 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:02 am

Post by shaft.ed »

And that retarded scenario I post was more of a "we're totally screwed if this happened." I don't think I'm going to pursue it further.
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Post Post #1053 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:19 am

Post by shaft.ed »

OK so here are some observations I hope to use to create possible scum pairings, please critique the validity.

Relationships:

1) If DGB is scum Yvonne a likely parnter. This is because the watcher is the only role that can catch DGB. Without a watcher the Haitian makes the perfect assassin for mafia. However, ZONEACE the tracker, who can't investigate DGB, was killed N1. One would argue that a tracker or a watcher would be equal risk targets. So I think the most likely scenario for a DGB scum is that she didn't have to worry about a watcher. Also note since Yvonne passed on to Adele she may be a third party.

2) Yvonne and The Fonz are not likely scum partners. Yvonne was very reluctant to claim today, but only my and The Fonz's targets where unknown. Since I'm only going to target from Yvonne, The Fonz or Adele Yvonne would have already known if the Fonz was motivated or not. This reluctance makes me believe they are not aligned.

3) If Yvonne is scum Adele is a likely partner. I don't think scum Yvonne would have passed her powers out to the town. Yet she suggested this strategy early D1. The only way I see this as likely is that Yvonne knew her powers would be contained within the mafia.

4) Alternative theory to above is that Yvonne is paird with CKD. Knowing that LyLo would result from one more successful kill they knew they could contain the watcher if they could jail her for one night and not worry about it. More risky since the SK was not out of the game at the time. Thus less likely.

NK's:
Night 1:

Cicero targeted me, confirmed
CKD jailed Gorgon confirmed
Yvonne targeted me and Adele, confirmed (Adele would have to be scum partner for this to work).
shaft.ed targeted Yvonne confirmed (Yvonne would have to be scum for this to work)
DGB targeted Gorgon unconfirmed

Must be killer: Fonz, DGB, TSQ/CES, Adele

NK's Night 2:

CKD targeted Adele confirmed
Adele was jailed confirmed
cicero targeted Adele confirmed (CKD would have to be scum for this to work)
Yvonne targeted the Fonz unconfirmed
shaft.ed targeted Adele unconfirmed
DGB targted TSQ/CES unonfirmed

Must be killer: Yvonne, shaft.ed, DGB, Fonz, TSQ/CES

So one of Adele, TSQ/CES, The Fonz or DGB killed N1. We know Adele didn't kill N2. So it seems that TSQ/CES, The Fonz or DGB would be the way to go for today.
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Post Post #1054 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:45 am

Post by The Fonz »

CKD wrote:Question for you, after my explanation of why I did what I did you post 899, but did not mention that the action was scummy at all. Why do you do it now when it is now in fashion to do so?
During mass claiming of roles or actions, I prefer to wait until all are in before commenting on the possible implications of any. You may note that, until all the claims are in, my discussion is limited to a) factual issues (as noted in 899) and trying to get a claim out of Yvonne. No-one really comments on the scumminess or otherwise of anyone's claim until Cicero's 949.

Also, frankly, I find your defence as in need of scrutiny as the action itself.

Let's look at your arguments:
curiouskarmadog wrote: If a kill hadnt gone through last night, would it have been "the scummiest move thus far?"...I think you need to think about that statement.
I've already explained why this is a horrible argument, and every time I see it, my gut reacts the same way. If you are scum, you know full well there's no possibility your action was going to prevent a scumkill.
After yesterday I was feeling that Yvonne was acting quite suspicious, but if I was wrong and targeted her, we would be wasting some valuable information.
How does that not apply equally to Adele?

Any reason I provide here is walking further down the WIFOM territory. But you really cant see why targeting anyone else Day 1 would have been better for mafia if I was mafia?
Still waiting for an explanation of why Gorgon was an uniquely bad mafia killchoice.


Then you try the mathematical 'probabilities' argument, pointing out how if you're town and die, it's game over. I dislike this because a mislynch is likely game over anyway. We'd need to lynch correctly three times in a row whilst somehow preventing nightkills on three occasions. And on each evening, the 'only i can prevent a scumkill' argument applies, so if we're to keep you alive on the basis of that argument, we'd have to commit to you living to endgame.

You also try the 'I haven't submitted a kill' thing, which is almost certainly true, but then, of all the roles in the game, yours is probably the most confirmable and hence the least likely to kill as scum.

curiouskarmadog wrote:Fonz, read the thread, it was either a slip or you were coaching
Again, explain why.

You claim that let Yvonne know that 'I did doc-protect and it was only one person.' Consider the following:

A) It'd be awfully strange if I didn't doc-protect, or in the counterfactual where I am scum, claim to have done so;
B) shaft.ed basically gave away who he targetted long before, with this post:
shaft.ed wrote:I would like CKD to tell my why Adele was locked up last night.
There is only one possible town explanation for how he would know that. That cicero's recruit attempt failed could mean either Adele
or
cicero were jailed. That shaft.ed seemed to know that it was Adele who was imprisoned made it obvious.

I therefore fail to see how I could possibly have informed a putative Yvonnescum of anything she didn't already know.

The all-three-as-scum theory of shaft.ed's has crossed my mind, but frankly, if one scum deliberately jailed another whilst the third killed, and claimed to target the jailed second scum, thereby giving all three alibis, that would be an utterly brilliant manoeuvre. I generally work on the theory that the more outlandishly brilliant or stupid a plan has to be to exist, the less likely it actually is to.

All that said, I'm far from ready to vote you right now. I'm going to re-read cicero and Adele. I'm currently seeing Adele/CKD as mutually exclusive scum. Adele's current 'well, both Yvonne/CKd are hella scummy, but I'll support the CKD lynch' gives me a bit of a 'scumbuddy second' vibe. Also:
Adele wrote:I suggest that from now on, until at least the SK performs a kill, ckd jails Gorgon every night.
Does this sound like a mafiosa who wants a potentially useful town role out of the way every night? If CKD is town and spends his evenings jailing Gorgon, that's a) a likely SK kill out the way b) a town protection that is going to a target known by the scum and c) a town roleblock not directed at a mafioso.
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Post Post #1055 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:58 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Okay, I read the thread. Yay for me!

I tend to think cicero is town. When he replaced, it would've been oh so easy for scum to just take the case on Oman and run with it. Instead he still voted for Oman, thereby linking him to the wagon, but rejected the case on Oman. This does not make sense for scum.

I'm suspicious of ckd. Especially his latest posts seem off. I'm certainly not getting any town vibes. But, I must add that his choice of target last night does not strike me as particularly egregious considering mathcam was not a likely watcher target.

I still don't like JDodge/DrippingGoofball, but I can't say DG has given me any solid tells.

I'm reading Yvonne more as new than truly scummy.

The Fonz, Adele and shaft.ed I have no strong opinion on.
shaft.ed wrote:If you think that Yvonne and CKD are both scum you should always lynch Yvonne. Why? Because if you are wrong having CKD alive is the only scenario by which the town has any chance to live another day.
Except she could be wrong about one and right about the other. If she's significantly more suspicious of CKD, she should go after him.

I think we should no-lynch now, as 7 players is better than 8 in Ly-Lo. Now one might argue that this would be giving away an opportunity to stop a kill and get us an extra kill, but this issue is moot if ckd is scum, a viewpoint I ascribe to and frankly, it's not really that important if he weren't. I'd much rather get the information from one more night than take the plunge now, especially if one considers that noone is cleared, that there is no obvious kill target. Thus, the mafia's kill will assuredly tell us something.

I got disrupted by foodstuffs near the end of this post and I see two new long posts in my preview window. I'll be reading those now.
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Post Post #1056 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:14 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

shaft.ed wrote:3) If Yvonne is scum Adele is a likely partner. I don't think scum Yvonne would have passed her powers out to the town. Yet she suggested this strategy early D1. The only way I see this as likely is that Yvonne knew her powers would be contained within the mafia.
An Yvonne-Adele pairing seems unlikely based on play though. Why are you looking at role actions in a vacuum? You are not a physicist.

I mean, otherwise, I think it's a good observation, and makes me think Yvonne is not scum. (If Yvonnescum -> Adelescum, then also: Yvonnescum -> Yvonnescum & Adelescum and Not(Yvonnescum&Adelescum) -> Not(Yvonnescum).)

How can you fail to take 42 pages of info into account when you're making your analysis?
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Post Post #1057 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:20 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

shaft.ed wrote: 2) Yvonne and The Fonz are not likely scum partners. Yvonne was very reluctant to claim today, but only my and The Fonz's targets where unknown. Since I'm only going to target from Yvonne, The Fonz or Adele Yvonne would have already known if the Fonz was motivated or not. This reluctance makes me believe they are not aligned.
I don’t know how night works, but if fonz’s was blocked, would he have been able to tell Yvonne that last night that he was indeed blocked if they are scum?

Cicero is confirmed by you shafted, in my book that goes with all the other claims that is “confirmed” by someone else. I happen to believe this claim, but it is not one that should be stated as fact.

Not sure what you mean by would have to be scum to work.

“cicero targeted Adele confirmed (CKD would have to be scum for this to work)”

I (town) target Adele (doesn’t matter). Cicero (scum) uses his ability to target Adele and got the failed claimed. This is confirmed because he was able tell Adele was jailed before I claimed….this actually could only worked if I AND Cicero were scum together.

The Fonz wrote:
After yesterday I was feeling that Yvonne was acting quite suspicious, but if I was wrong and targeted her, we would be wasting some valuable information.
How does that not apply equally to Adele?
Can you please provide the post number for this quote.

The Fonz wrote:
Any reason I provide here is walking further down the WIFOM territory. But you really cant see why targeting anyone else Day 1 would have been better for mafia if I was mafia?
Still waiting for an explanation of why Gorgon was an uniquely bad mafia killchoice.
Out of everyone in the game, please explain why Gorgon was better mafia kill choice than..shafted..Yvonne…mathcam..yourself..me?…I targeted Gorgon because I thought he was scum (I was banking on mafia).
The Fonz wrote:
Then you try the mathematical 'probabilities' argument, pointing out how if you're town and die, it's game over. I dislike this because a mislynch is likely game over anyway. We'd need to lynch correctly three times in a row whilst somehow preventing nightkills on three occasions. And on each evening, the 'only i can prevent a scumkill' argument applies, so if we're to keep you alive on the basis of that argument, we'd have to commit to you living to endgame.
If you are scum fonz, who can stop a kill? If there is a chance that either you or myself are indeed town…at this point we should not be lynched. IF we can hit scum today..and between you and myself stop a kill tonight..we will no longer be in lylo tomorrow..right? please explain how I am wrong.
The Fonz wrote:
You also try the 'I haven't submitted a kill' thing, which is almost certainly true, but then, of all the roles in the game, yours is probably the most confirmable and hence the least likely to kill as scum.
The point is I haven’t…so given this and the above fact, how am I a good choice for a kill today?
The Fonz wrote:
curiouskarmadog wrote:Fonz, read the thread, it was either a slip or you were coaching
Again, explain why.
Explain why what? Yvonne did not claim until you said that you indeed had made a protection. If you were scum together, you would not have been able to tell her if DGB had targetted you (at night). Once you told her that you were able to protect, she knew that DGB had not targeted you and she claimed she watched you and no one targeted you. Understand? If I am wrong here, please explain. This has nothing to do with shafted or Cicero. You can understand how that might look suspicious. At this point I don’t know if you were coaching, or just making a statement you thought was safe, but giving Yvonne enough information to safely claim.

If my logic is wrong here, please explain why.
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Post Post #1058 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:28 am

Post by The Fonz »

The problem i have with that, CKD, is that if if really were the case that the town would be better off from no-lynching and having the mafia hand us more information through the NK, then mafia can pretty easily no-kill themselves. Any sane mafia will only kill if they believe it in their interests- so for a no lynch to be of use, the mafia would have to assess the situation, gamble, and get unlucky.

I'm not sure i'm keen on those odds.
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Post Post #1059 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:30 am

Post by curiouskarmadog »

dont think you were directing that answer to me...I never suggested a no lynch
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Post Post #1060 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 9:09 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

The Fonz, if the mafia doesn't kill, that would merely keep the situation as is. Not exactly a horrible worst case scenario, aye? Most seriously though, mafia dudes tend to kill people. The "no lynch, mafia kill someone" tends to go as planned.
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Post Post #1061 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 9:11 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:3) If Yvonne is scum Adele is a likely partner. I don't think scum Yvonne would have passed her powers out to the town. Yet she suggested this strategy early D1. The only way I see this as likely is that Yvonne knew her powers would be contained within the mafia.
An Yvonne-Adele pairing seems unlikely based on play though. Why are you looking at role actions in a vacuum? You are not a physicist.

I mean, otherwise, I think it's a good observation, and makes me think Yvonne is not scum. (If Yvonnescum -> Adelescum, then also: Yvonnescum -> Yvonnescum & Adelescum and Not(Yvonnescum&Adelescum) -> Not(Yvonnescum).)

How can you fail to take 42 pages of info into account when you're making your analysis?
CES it's not in a vacuum. I just want to get these role interaction points out there. As you said Yvonne & Adele is not incredibly likely. Thus I feel that since bringing up that point I'm finding Yvonne less likely scum.
CKD wrote:“cicero targeted Adele confirmed (CKD would have to be scum for this to work)”
By "work" I mean to perform the NK and still have the neccessary information to make the claim. Only way cicero could have made the kill and known Adele was locked up is if you told her at night.

Sorry for the helter skelter posting. Not a lot of time to get my thoughts in.
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Post Post #1062 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 10:58 am

Post by The Fonz »

curiouskarmadog wrote:dont think you were directing that answer to me...I never suggested a no lynch
Yeah, sorry, writing an acronym that began with C, just force of habit... meant CES.
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Post Post #1063 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:00 am

Post by The Fonz »

Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:The Fonz, if the mafia doesn't kill, that would merely keep the situation as is. Not exactly a horrible worst case scenario, aye? .
The problem there is that that is the worst-case scenario
from a scum perspective
. IE, if scum don't think killing makes them better off, they no-kill. So the WCS for scum, pretty much, is the status quo.
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Post Post #1064 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:21 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

No, no, the scum killing is good. That's why I'm suggesting a no-lynch. So our worst case scenario is that the scum don't kill.

Now I understand that it feels like someone has to make a sub-optimal move and well, this is basically true, but it works on account of scum's tendency to kill people. On a certain level it shouldn't work, but it does, yeah. Ignore the man behind the curtain.
shaft.ed wrote:CES it's not in a vacuum. I just want to get these role interaction points out there. As you said Yvonne & Adele is not incredibly likely. Thus I feel that since bringing up that point I'm finding Yvonne less likely scum.
I don't find it very convincing when the one example of real analysis you can give is one I just spelled out for you.
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Post Post #1065 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:31 am

Post by The Fonz »

curiouskarmadog wrote:
shaft.ed wrote: 2) Yvonne and The Fonz are not likely scum partners. Yvonne was very reluctant to claim today, but only my and The Fonz's targets where unknown. Since I'm only going to target from Yvonne, The Fonz or Adele Yvonne would have already known if the Fonz was motivated or not. This reluctance makes me believe they are not aligned.
I don’t know how night works, but if fonz’s was blocked, would he have been able to tell Yvonne that last night that he was indeed blocked if they are scum?
I don't understand what you're saying here.

The Fonz wrote:
After yesterday I was feeling that Yvonne was acting quite suspicious, but if I was wrong and targeted her, we would be wasting some valuable information.
How does that not apply equally to Adele?
Can you please provide the post number for this quote.
889, when you announce your jailing of Adele. I went back and looked it over.

CKD wrote:
The Fonz wrote:
Any reason I provide here is walking further down the WIFOM territory. But you really cant see why targeting anyone else Day 1 would have been better for mafia if I was mafia?
Still waiting for an explanation of why Gorgon was an uniquely bad mafia killchoice.
Out of everyone in the game, please explain why Gorgon was better mafia kill choice than..shafted..Yvonne…mathcam..yourself..me?…I targeted Gorgon because I thought he was scum (I was banking on mafia).
Just to clarify- I meant unlikely for a scum CKD to jail, rather than killchoice.

Jailing doc or watcher would have brought an enormous shitstorm down on your head, as has happened today with Adele. shaft.ed seemed a particularly unlikely person to be performing the NK even if he were scum (since no-one claiming to have been motivated would look bad) so would have been an unlikely
town
choice. Mathcam... I don't see how he's any better or worse a choice for scum CKD to jail than Gorgon.
The Fonz wrote:
Then you try the mathematical 'probabilities' argument, pointing out how if you're town and die, it's game over. I dislike this because a mislynch is likely game over anyway. We'd need to lynch correctly three times in a row whilst somehow preventing nightkills on three occasions. And on each evening, the 'only i can prevent a scumkill' argument applies, so if we're to keep you alive on the basis of that argument, we'd have to commit to you living to endgame.
If you are scum fonz, who can stop a kill? If there is a chance that either you or myself are indeed town…at this point we should not be lynched. IF we can hit scum today..and between you and myself stop a kill tonight..we will no longer be in lylo tomorrow..right? please explain how I am wrong.
Yes, the best case scenario is that you aren't scum (I already know I'm not) and we somehow prevent a kill between us tomorrow. But that's not what I'm arguing. The point is, if
anyone
gets lynched as town today, it's game over if you're scum, and requires you and I to prevent scum kills on three nights whilst also lynching correctly three times if you're not. The chance of three straight correct lylo lynches AND three blocked NKs are so low, that the play for today is to lynch the most likely scum regardless, since avoiding mislynching ought to be our priority to the exclusion of all else.
The Fonz wrote:
You also try the 'I haven't submitted a kill' thing, which is almost certainly true, but then, of all the roles in the game, yours is probably the most confirmable and hence the least likely to kill as scum.
The point is I haven’t…so given this and the above fact, how am I a good choice for a kill today?
Because not having put in a kill does not make you significantly less likely to be scum. Also, I haven't really made my mind up yet as to whether or not you are the right kill choice.


curiouskarmadog wrote: Explain why what?
WHY IT WAS EITHER A SLIP OR COACHING. Since I can't see how i revealed anything she didn't already know if she's scum.
Yvonne did not claim until you said that you indeed had made a protection. If you were scum together, you would not have been able to tell her if DGB had targetted you (at night).
Well, firstly, at that point I believed there was only me and shaft.ed to claim, because shaft.ed had said so in a post just before mine, which i took to be true. So I was unaware DGB hadn't claimed.

Secondly:

Once you told her that you were able to protect, she knew that DGB had not targeted you and she claimed she watched you and no one targeted you. Understand?
No. Because you're wrong.
I
didn't know whether DGB had targetted me or not. If DGB HAD targetted me, I don't believe I'd have been made aware of the fact. (not to mention that if DGB had performed an action on a doctor that would prevent the use of his doc powers, but not a kill attempt if I'd been mafia, I don't think it'd have been Yvonne we were looking hardest at). I don't believe it's common practice to inform doctors whether anything has interfered with their protection attempts- at least, I've never seen it happen.
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Post Post #1066 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:39 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

To add to The Fonz' latest point, the rules in this game specify that The Fonz would not be informed if he had been blocked, so there really was no info for The Fonz to convey.
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Post Post #1067 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 5:30 pm

Post by curiouskarmadog »

Ok I don’t know how the night works. For some reason I thought the Doc was informed that their protection did not go through at the start of the day like Cicero received when he targeted Adele. Speaking of which, Cicero, did you get that PM during the night or during the start of the day? So Fonz is right, he did not convey any information to Yvonne in that post. But even with that, I still think Yvonne is scum.
The Fonz wrote:
The Fonz wrote:
After yesterday I was feeling that Yvonne was acting quite suspicious, but if I was wrong and targeted her, we would be wasting some valuable information.
How does that not apply equally to Adele?
Can you please provide the post number for this quote.
889, when you announce your jailing of Adele. I went back and looked it over.
I guess it does apply to Adele as well. At the time I made the decision, it didn’t seem like Adele was a “watcher”. I just saw someone that didn’t do anything the night before and had close ties to Yvonne. I thought the “valuable information” was comparing Yvonne’s claimed decisions from Night to Night. Adele had nothing to compare from the previous night. I thought that I was targeting someone that the mafia would not predict I would target…thus hoping that Adelescum might be submitting the kill. Like I have already said, I wish I had targeted Yvonne instead of Adele. Cicero (whether scum or town) is right…it was a boneheaded move in retrospect.

In reference to the Gorgon night choice conversation. Well, again it is a WIFOM argument, but if I was scum, I could have easily targeted shafted because I was getting scum vibes from him and attacked him pretty hard Day 1…I actually thought Gorgon and Shafted might be scum together, since I attacked shafted most of the day I thought Gorgon would be a move that the mafia would not predict thus stopping a NK…It turns out it did...but got the SK instead. At any rate, I have forgotten the point of this conversation. Are you saying that Gorgon was a good mafia choice because targeting everyone else would have made me look scummy, thus making me look scummy for trying not to look scummy? If I would have targeted Shea or mathcam night one, isn’t it the same argument? Now that I have targeted Adele I look scummy too. Again, this is sort of lose lose for me. I have based my targets trying to out guess the mafia…obviously this has put me in a heap of shit today.
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Post Post #1068 (ISO) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:22 pm

Post by The Fonz »

I'm not saying it makes you look scummy at all. My issue was with you trying to make out that jailing Gorgon made you
less
likely to be scum. Nulltell, imo.
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Post Post #1069 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:27 am

Post by Adele »

shaft.ed wrote:
Adele wrote:Personally at this point I think it's extremely likely that both Yvonne and CKD are scum; I currently think that each of them is probably scum. As such, I'm up for a lynch on either on of them, but recent exchanges make me happier with a lynch on CKD.
Adele your logic fails here. If you think that Yvonne and CKD are both scum you should always lynch Yvonne. Why? Because if you are wrong having CKD alive is the only scenario by which the town has any chance to live another day.
What, we don't have a doc and a motivator on team, giving us potentially 2 protects tonight? Besides, you don't leave a scummy nightkiller alive because he might be vig, not sk - you lynch the scummiest people rather than count on them to save the town.
TheFonz wrote:Then you try the mathematical 'probabilities' argument, pointing out how if you're town and die, it's game over. I dislike this because a mislynch is likely game over anyway.
QFT

No Lynch is an interesting idea - personally I'm all for plans that just add a night to the mix (as my usefulness increases each night if I'm not jailed). It occurs that a nokill tonight following a nolynch would be ambiguous in cause - does it demonstrate the efficacy of one of the docs and thus give us information, or just indicate the scum chose to nokill?
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Post Post #1070 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:37 am

Post by cicero »

Curiouskarmadog wrote: Cicero, did you get that PM during the night or during the start of the day?
Night.
Like I have already said, I wish I had targeted Yvonne instead of Adele. Cicero (whether scum or town) is right…it was a boneheaded move in retrospect.
Targetting Yvonne would have been almost as boneheaded.

Look, here is/was the key to this game. The scum have to act town while really doing a nightkill. So we need to look at ways they use their powers each day to find players that are either lying, or who are playing to scum advantage while pretending to be town.

Curiouskarmadog, Fonz, Adele Shaft.ed and Yvonne, should all be under considerable pressure in early days to do the right thing for town. I should be expected to provide my own alibi by adding a voucher to my network that (hopefully) doesnt end up dead (because then I'm pretty much the sure lynch).

Adele and Yvonne need to watch people and Shaft.ed would need to motivate a watcher. And CKD should be doing something useful like jailing me or Shea or Dripping Goofball.

Last night Shaft.ed would obviously have given Adele motivation powers because it is the most pro-town move. If Adele is scum, getting those powers is a handicap because she's forced to use them in an ostensibly pro-town way.

So what happens instead? CKD does the most anti-town thing available. He blocks Adel from both receiving a motivating power and from watching. If CKD is scum, that means his partner can do the kill.

That means town pretty much has to lynch him as far as I'm concerned. That's why it's such a bonehead move. Every argument he's made since has felt more like scum trying to justify his anti-town choice. My gut is churning and I dont like this at all. Because his sincerity seems sincere. And on gut, I want to go after Fonz and Yvonne. But the person who did the absolutely proven anti-town, pro-scum play is CKD. And I'd like to know where I find the assurance that if we leave him alive, he wont be laughing at us at game end?

I'm not for one moment discounting, btw, that Adele IS one of his two scumbuddies. I dont think the idea of him jailing her to stop her from having to provide town info is so brilliant that it couldnt have been thought of. *I* woulda thought of it. and CKD is at least as smart as I am. But it's a null tell on its own. The incentive for scum to jail her was there irrespective of her alignment.
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Post Post #1071 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:42 am

Post by cicero »

Adele wrote:No Lynch is an interesting idea - personally I'm all for plans that just add a night to the mix (as my usefulness increases each night if I'm not jailed). It occurs that a nokill tonight following a nolynch would be ambiguous in cause - does it demonstrate the efficacy of one of the docs and thus give us information, or just indicate the scum chose to nokill?
I think we have to assume this is exactly the choice they'll make but given Adele's ability to absorb powers I see merit in a do-over of last night. At first blush anyway. I could maybe go with a No Lynch given the stakes of a mislynch.
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Post Post #1072 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:43 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

cicero wrote:Last night Shaft.ed would obviously have given Adele motivation powers because it is the most pro-town move. If Adele is scum, getting those powers is a handicap because she's forced to use them in an ostensibly pro-town way.

So what happens instead? CKD does the most anti-town thing available. He blocks Adel from both receiving a motivating power and from watching. If CKD is scum, that means his partner can do the kill.

The incentive for scum to jail her was there irrespective of her alignment.
Hmmmmm. I think I'm beginning to see the light, here.
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Post Post #1073 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:45 am

Post by shaft.ed »

the fonz wrote:There is only one possible town explanation for how he would know that. That cicero's recruit attempt failed could mean either Adele or cicero were jailed. That shaft.ed seemed to know that it was Adele who was imprisoned made it obvious.
Actually I assumed cic wasn't jailed because I was able to chat with him all night long. I figured if he was looked up he wouldn't be able to reply to me but we had a few posts back and forth. I received no feedback that Adele was locked up last night.

I have a lot of reading to catch up on but I think I'd like to follow CES' recommendation that we No Lynch.
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Post Post #1074 (ISO) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:50 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Adele wrote:What, we don't have a doc and a motivator on team, giving us potentially 2 protects tonight? Besides, you don't leave a scummy nightkiller alive because he might be vig, not sk - you lynch the scummiest people rather than count on them to save the town.
Not to keep harping on this but the Doc can't self protect. If The Fonz is the only protector left then scum kill him game over.

I think the threat of Adele receiving more powersought to be enough to force the scum kill. I don't want to end discussion at this moment however, but I will be voting No Lynch barring any obvious scum reveals today.

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