Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[DrippingGoofball]

My own ability would certainly be useful in the hands of scum ... since it allows immunity from tracking, NKs (useful for all alignments since there are two killing groups), etc. In the hands of Sylar it would be pretty bad for the town, especially since Seol has confirmed that he could kill and phase out on the same night. Hopefully my ability will deter people from targeting me for NK, though ... Sylar and mafia alike can never be sure which nights I'm phased out on. As town, survival is the extent of my usefulness to the rest of the town, but at least that's something.

Here Gorgon seems to be acutely aware of notions like being tracked or not, detering players from targetting him at night, SURVIVAL is the extent of his usefulness... I find that post, alone and in itself, a MEGA SK tell.

In his post #6, Gorgon votes CKD. Interesting choice: CKD is one role that can definitely prevent him from nightkilling. Reason given: "wavering in his accusations." Pretty weak reason.

Then he votes Zoneace, and stays on this aborted wagon for a long long time. Meanwhile he continues to go after CKD. Doesn't vote for CKD again. Very focused and tunnel-visioned on CKD.

Then he comes in sporadically with excuses for inactivity. In his last post, Jan 11, Gorgon approves of the Oman lynch without much explanation, and without having expressed much prior suspicion of Oman beforehand. Like, you know, whatever wagon, he approves.

[Adele]

I joined this game during night, forgot about it. I only joined to push Adele over the edge of insanity, but I never played a "smalltown" game before, I hardly even play open games.

reason enough for me to stay sane, I guess.

OK. DGB, listen carefully. Roles and alignments are distributed

seperately

- otherwise Seol telling us who has what role would totally break the game. Any role can be scum or the sk, and stands an exactly equal chance of getting it - we chose our own "open" role, then Seol handed out alignments randomly.

Oh, and I invented the setup, so your joining is, like, a tribute to me. Just FYI.

Yvonne, you ready to claim, or are you still waiting on anyone?

[YvonneSeer]

I got motivated. My watch targets were Adele and shaft.ed.

Nobody targetted Adele.

And cicero did indeed target shaft.ed.

[Adele]

I can confirm that Yvonne targeted me.

Which makes this statement:

Nobody targetted Adele.

A

lie

!!!

[The Fonz]

I joined this game during night, forgot about it. I only joined to push Adele over the edge of insanity, but I never played a "smalltown" game before, I hardly even play open games.

I targetted Gorgon. I looked at the list, and the roles, and I picked him because...

...it would make Gorgon immune to being targeted by Powers for the night (which he already is on account of his role) and incapable of using his own Power (which is to hide).

Hmmm. Interesting. Since nightkills aren't powers, the only possible effect of using that power on Gorgon would be to make him nightkillable by someone else even if he'd tried to phase out. I really can't think of a pro-town reason to do that.

Then again, since DGB can't be tracked, and the mafia killed someone else (hence DGB can't have done it in order to allow a buddy to kill Gorgon) one wonders why the hell a scum Goof would

admit

to that.

Could Goof be Sylar? A Goof-sylar could dampen Gorgon's ability to hide, and kill him the same night.

[shaft.ed]

I got motivated. My watch targets were Adele and shaft.ed.

Nobody targetted Adele.

And cicero did indeed target shaft.ed.

I'm finding this bit about me VERY out of place. There's very little reason for a scum group to kill me. Sylar would get nothing form the motivation, and scum would likely keep me around after pushing a mislynch so hard. It's also very handy that cicero already admitted to targeting me. I'm finding this choice very suspicious.

FoS Yvonne

Seol, if I motivate mafia will they be able to use their power and perform a NK, not just two power choices?

@ DGB. Like Adele said, the roles are separate from alignments. We picked our roles in advance and Seol then randomly assigned us to groups. The role drafting is in the first couple pages. Also, Gorgon and CKD "go first" that is their powers are considered first, then scum NK's then powers. So you couldn't block Gorgon's ability even if you tried. You can only effect Me, Adele, Yvonne, The Fonz and Mathcam on any given night. Most of those choices would be antitown btw.

[shaft.ed]

Could Goof be Sylar? A Goof-sylar could dampen Gorgon's ability to hide, and kill him the same night.

That's a good point, but again why the hell would she admit to doing it. No one would ever know. Also it wouldn't work as I stated above, but DGB obviously didn't know that.

[YvonneSeer]

I can confirm that Yvonne targeted me.

Which makes this statement:

Nobody targetted Adele.

A

lie

!!!

Ouch.

I passed on my powers 'cause I thought the SK would kill me last night. The voices in my head are still screaming "

Adele's scum!!!

". No idea why.

If you're pro-town, then all's well. If you're not, then let me catch you in a lie. I'll be watching.

[YvonneSeer]

Could Goof be Sylar? A Goof-sylar could dampen Gorgon's ability to hide, and kill him the same night.

Hiding comes before dampening.

[Adele]

I got motivated. My watch targets were Adele and shaft.ed.

Nobody targetted Adele.

And cicero did indeed target shaft.ed.

I'm finding this bit about me VERY out of place. There's very little reason for a scum group to kill me. Sylar would get nothing form the motivation, and scum would likely keep me around after pushing a mislynch so hard.

It's also very handy that cicero already admitted to targeting me

. I'm finding this choice very suspicious.

FoS Yvonne

(bolding added) - no, that's a result of her waiting towards the end; she could have faked any number of results, but since she's statistically more likely to be town than scum it made sense for her to be in a position of the Sword or Truth; if anyone had lied that they had or hadn't targeted me or shaft.ed, that'd be a good lynch for the day right there. She's useful in that she makes lying hard/dangerous for scum about nightchoices - as, now, am I.

Sylar might want you dead, too, if there's any other role he's scared of. Maybe the tracker or watcher could catch him using an acquired power (that's how I'd run it; I'd have to check with Seol for specifics) and you double that danger, while being relatively unlikely to be protected.

Could Goof be Sylar? A Goof-sylar could dampen Gorgon's ability to hide, and kill him the same night.

Hiding comes before dampening.

It's likely she'd've known that if she'd developed a rudimentary understanding of the game and the roles prior to making her choice. As it is, she was (as usual) playing the Goofball.
Whether that's scummy or not, I'm past even trying to tell. Give me a day or two and she'll likely incense me and I'll be unable to see her as anything other than definate scum til the end of time.
The fact that the above pattern is predictable does not make it solveable.

[YvonneSeer]

I got motivated. My watch targets were Adele and shaft.ed.

Nobody targetted Adele.

And cicero did indeed target shaft.ed.

I'm finding this bit about me VERY out of place. There's very little reason for a scum group to kill me. Sylar would get nothing form the motivation, and scum would likely keep me around after pushing a mislynch so hard.

It's also very handy that cicero already admitted to targeting me

. I'm finding this choice very suspicious.

FoS Yvonne

(bolding added) - no, that's a result of her waiting towards the end; she could have faked any number of results, but since she's statistically more likely to be town than scum it made sense for her to be in a position of the Sword or Truth; if anyone had lied that they had or hadn't targeted me or shaft.ed, that'd be a good lynch for the day right there. She's useful in that she makes lying hard/dangerous for scum about nightchoices - as, now, am I.

Sylar might want you dead, too, if there's any other role he's scared of. Maybe the tracker or watcher could catch him using an acquired power (that's how I'd run it; I'd have to check with Seol for specifics) and you double that danger, while being relatively unlikely to be protected.

I see what shaft.ed means though. It does look like a rather safe claim to make. But the thing is, it's better that I claim at the end, or scum can make safe claims and avoid anybody that I said I had watched. Also, now that there are two watchers, it's easier to catch one or the other if we lie about our results because stuff is just not gonna fit in together.

And yes, I thought shaft.ed was a likely NK target and I still think so.

[shaft.ed]

I totally agree with the idea that Yvonne should go last. I just wanted to point out what I found odd about it. I still don't know why I'd be a NK. Once, the investigative/Doc roles are gone or in scum hands I'm a vanilla. I really don't see why scum would fear my role. And I did such a good job scum hunting yesterday I'm sure they're worried about me outing them.

Gorgon are you home?

[The Fonz]

Here's what we know.

The Sylar kill was either of Gorgon, or by Gorgon. CKD's ability is the only one which can prevent a Sylar kill, so we know that CKD must have used it. He could have lied about who he used it

on

, though that's extremely risky so I'd say it's overwhelmingly likely he's telling the truth about last night.

So:


Those we can prove used their abilities:

cicero
Yvonne
shaft.ed
CKD

He who cannot have committed the mafia kill:

Gorgon

That means the mafia killer is amongst this group:

(me)
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ

[mathcam]

Lynching Gorgon has got to be the right play for the day. Unless I'm thinking about this wrong, there's a 50/50 chance that Gorgon's the SK, at least assuming that Sylar attempted to make a kill last night. 50/50 odds on killing the SK on day 2 are phenomenal, and while this goes down a bit if you take into account the chance that Sylar didn't kill, it's still seems to me to be a dominating strategy.

I'm not saying we have to rush through discussion, but I'll need a pretty convincing argument to vote otherwise.

In other news:

I came in today too late to make this argument in time, but it's not clear to me that Adele should reveal what powers she has. If she's town and doesn't get any, than all the better for us when the mafia, fearing she has super powers, goes and kills her instead of one of our power roles. If she's town and gets powers, why not leave it to the mafia's imagination which ones, at least until she can reveal them simultaneously with some incriminating information? If she's scum, the only way she can hide having a role is by killing the person who gave it to her before they reveal this fact in discussion -- exerting control over her nightkills like this would certainly be some kind of advantage for us. Plus, at any point, the person who gave her the role could at any point "Tell us what you did with the role I gave you for the past n nights", in which case if she didn't use them to the town's best interests, she'd have a lot to answer for.

ckd: Why would you target Gorgon if you didn't even know whether or not it would work?

FOS: cks

for that -- makes it look like he might have been more occupied with making other night choices.

Cam

[curiouskarmadog]

lol, mathcam..I targetted him because I thought he was scum...his power was an after thought.

what other night choices would I be preoccupied with?

[mathcam]

Oh right. Never mind.

[shaft.ed]

Actually Cam I think odds are greater than 50/50. But it sure would be nice to hear from Gorgon.

[shaft.ed]

I'm gone til Monday. Have a good weekend.

[The Fonz]

In other news:

I came in today too late to make this argument in time, but it's not clear to me that Adele should reveal what powers she has. If she's town and doesn't get any, than all the better for us when the mafia, fearing she has super powers, goes and kills her instead of one of our power roles. If she's town and gets powers, why not leave it to the mafia's imagination which ones, at least until she can reveal them simultaneously with some incriminating information?

Cam

Adele has already revealed that she knew herself to have been targetted by Yvonne. Therefore, she has claimed her power.

[curiouskarmadog]

vote gorgon

...I dont think anything he could say would make me not vote him today.

[mathcam]

In other news:

I came in today too late to make this argument in time, but it's not clear to me that Adele should reveal what powers she has. If she's town and doesn't get any, than all the better for us when the mafia, fearing she has super powers, goes and kills her instead of one of our power roles. If she's town and gets powers, why not leave it to the mafia's imagination which ones, at least until she can reveal them simultaneously with some incriminating information?

Cam

Adele has already revealed that she knew herself to have been targetted by Yvonne. Therefore, she has claimed her power.

True...what's your point?

Cam

[Adele]

I came in today too late to make this argument in time, but it's not clear to me that Adele should reveal what powers she has. If she's town and doesn't get any, than all the better for us when the mafia, fearing she has super powers, goes and kills her instead of one of our power roles. If she's town and gets powers, why not leave it to the mafia's imagination which ones, at least until she can reveal them simultaneously with some incriminating information?

Cam

How is it avoidable? If everyone reveals their nightchoices, then it can be easily figured out; either my information matches what they say or it doesn't - in which case I think I ought to say so.

[YvonneSeer]

Here's what we know.

The Sylar kill was either of Gorgon, or by Gorgon. CKD's ability is the only one which can prevent a Sylar kill, so we know that CKD must have used it. He could have lied about who he used it

on

, though that's extremely risky so I'd say it's overwhelmingly likely he's telling the truth about last night.

So:


Those we can prove used their abilities:

cicero
Yvonne
shaft.ed
CKD

He who cannot have committed the mafia kill:

Gorgon

That means the mafia killer is amongst this group:

(me)
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ

Fonz, what do you suggest we do with this information?

[Adele]

Those we can prove used their abilities:

cicero
Yvonne
shaft.ed
CKD

He who cannot have committed the mafia kill:

Gorgon

That means the mafia killer is amongst this group:

(me)
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ

cicero could be in cahoots with shafted (ie. both scum together, agreed that cicero would claim he targeted shafted and Shafted would confirm this; I'm not saying it's probable, merely that we don't "know" theat cicero didn't perform the kill)
ckd could be in cahoots with Gorgon (plan gone awry due to lack of SK-kill)

So I think you need to add cicero, CKD and Gorgon to the list - leaving just two people who definately didn't perform the kill, but could still be scum.
Could have performed it (I think):
Fonz
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ
Cicero
Gorgon
CKD

[YvonneSeer]

Those we can prove used their abilities:

cicero
Yvonne
shaft.ed
CKD

He who cannot have committed the mafia kill:

Gorgon

That means the mafia killer is amongst this group:

(me)
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ

cicero could be in cahoots with shafted (ie. both scum together, agreed that cicero would claim he targeted shafted and Shafted would confirm this; I'm not saying it's probable, merely that we don't "know" theat cicero didn't perform the kill)
ckd could be in cahoots with Gorgon (plan gone awry due to lack of SK-kill)

So I think you need to add cicero, CKD and Gorgon to the list - leaving just two people who definately didn't perform the kill, but could still be scum.
Could have performed it (I think):
Fonz
DGB
mathcam
Adele
TSQ
Cicero
Gorgon
CKD

Adele, I watched shaft.ed, remember? So I can confirm cicero targetted shaft.ed. Though there is the possibility that one might think cicero, shaft.ed and I are all scum together.