Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[cicero]

Oh and Shaft.ed, if we're going to bring up the sacred quiet conversations shall we then mention that you suggested I target Mathcam.

[shaft.ed]

Like how you leave TSQ and DGB off of that list. Very classy.

[shaft.ed]

The choices were obvious.

If the choices are obvious your reason was irrelevant.

[cicero]

Like how you leave TSQ and DGB off of that list. Very classy.

Oh I know. You couldnt be too obvious about it. Just get me in the ballpark and MAYBE I'll end up giving scum an alibi.

Nothing definitive. Just as long as we're noting our night chitchat we may as well get it all on the table.

[shaft.ed]

Sure why not? How about your plan to have the investigative roles "coordinate" their actions by communicating their targets through you?

[cicero]

The choices were obvious.

If the choices are obvious your reason was irrelevant.

When I selected you there was a tracker alive.

[cicero]

Sure why not? How about your plan to have the investigative roles "coordinate" their actions by communicating their targets through you?

I still think that was a good idea.

[YvonneSeer]

I was wary of him being scum trying to get a townie (Gorgon) lynched yesterday.

How could you have thought the above ^^^
And posted the below:

Yes, in fact, Gorgon is most likely to be the SK at this point, and a rather dangerous SK if so.

Or, Gorgon is the SK and he got Jailed.

Well, maybe one way to go about this, is for ckd to continue jailing Gorgon and see if there are still no SK kills.

What about having ckd jail Gorgon every night from now on?

I am sure there is a perfectly good explanation, I would like to hear it.

There is a perfectly good explanation. By raw probability alone, Gorgon was the most likely to be the SK compared to any other player. That is why I mentioned it when TSQ mistakenly identified me as the most likely to be the SK. But we don't play mafia according to probability. We must also look at other possibilities. And I'll list them out now (although it's now useless and doesn't make a difference):

1. Gorgon is townie, CKD is townie, unknown SK targetted Gorgon.
2. Gorgon is townie, CKD is scum, unknown SK targetted Gorgon.
3. Gorgon is townie, CKD is SK, CKD targetted Gorgon.

As you can see, if Gorgon had been a townie, we would have lynched a townie because of probability and we would not have gained additional information about CKD's alignment or who the SK might be. We would be one townie less and the SK would still be alive.

Hence, I suggested CKD jail Gorgon. From earlier scenarios:

1. Gorgon is townie, CKD is townie, unknown SK targetted Gorgon.
a) Unknown SK targets someone else, Gorgon cleared of being SK, Gorgon and CKD also unlikely to both be scum.
b) Unknown SK no-kills to frame Gorgon, less townie deaths until SK decides to kill.

2. Gorgon is townie, CKD is scum, unknown SK targetted Gorgon.
a) Same as above.
b) Same as above.
c) CKDscum will be tied down by jailing Gorgon, cannot perform mafia kill.

3. Gorgon is townie, CKD is SK, CKD targetted Gorgon.
a) Same as above, except unknown SK = CKD.
b) Same as above, except unknown SK = CKD.

I never mentioned I wanted Gorgon lynched. I said he was the most likely SK because of raw probability alone, but I didn't want to play mafia that way which is why I suggested CKD jail Gorgon, because there is benefit and we can gain information as well. But, you guys ended up right and Gorgon was the SK, so obviously my plan looks like crap today.

Also, why did you not vote for Gorgon after all? Were you afraid to risk your vote on a non-scum lynch, while voicing suspicion that Gorgon was the SK?

I didn't vote for Gorgon because I didn't want to lynch Gorgon. I wanted CKD to jail Gorgon, remember? That wouldn't work if Gorgon was dead, now would it?

Also, you're suggesting that I'm scum who has no idea whether Gorgon is the SK or a townie, but I refused to lynch him and even went against massively popular opinion which decreed that he was the right play for yesterday? You're saying I'm scum because I didn't want to lynch non-scum?

[The Fonz]

Hmmm. Nice of Yvonne to show up with something that cries out to be ripped apart.

I think cicero is likely town. There's absolutely no reason for him to be scum and prevent a mislynch today by defending me, especially since I was the easiest target and we are in some sort of potential lylo.

WOAH! Hang on there, sister! For starters, this is premised off your own innocence. Secondly, I'm not sure to what extent he is 'trying to avoid' your lynch when he states that his gut feeling is that you are scum. Also, and this is important: there is no town-tell in preferring the lynch of one town player over another, so for this argument to hold any weight whatsoever, it basically requires CKD (whose lynch cicero

is

pushing) to be scum. Yet you say he's

more likely to be town than scum

and voting DrippingGoofball. What gives?

Also, on the CKD jailing Gorgon thing. Can you not see why it would be the interests of the mafia, if CKD is town, to suggest such a plan? Town role (one of only two that can stop a scum kill) is tied up indefinitely whilst preventing the SK from killing?

[YvonneSeer]

Hmmm. Nice of Yvonne to show up with something that cries out to be ripped apart.

I think cicero is likely town. There's absolutely no reason for him to be scum and prevent a mislynch today by defending me, especially since I was the easiest target and we are in some sort of potential lylo.

WOAH! Hang on there, sister! For starters, this is premised off your own innocence. Secondly, I'm not sure to what extent he is 'trying to avoid' your lynch when he states that his gut feeling is that you are scum. Also, and this is important: there is no town-tell in preferring the lynch of one town player over another, so for this argument to hold any weight whatsoever, it basically requires CKD (whose lynch cicero

is

pushing) to be scum. Yet you say he's

more likely to be town than scum

and voting DrippingGoofball. What gives?

Erm, I'm speaking from my point of view? Scum will want to mislynch townies and potentially win the game if there are no protects, blocks or whatever. I'm a townie and cicero is not trying to mislynch me. In fact, I was a top lynch candidate and if he was scum, he could have just joined the masses who want me dead, lynch me and win the game.

You say there is no town-tell in preferring the lynch of one town player over another. But you must take into account who is easier to be lynched. How many wanted me lynched and how many want CKD lynched? If cicero is scum who thinks this game is far too easy for him and wants a challenge to lynch a harder target, then I'm wrong and good on him.

Also, on the CKD jailing Gorgon thing. Can you not see why it would be the interests of the mafia, if CKD is town, to suggest such a plan? Town role (one of only two that can stop a scum kill) is tied up indefinitely whilst preventing the SK from killing?

And I ask you back in turn. Can you not see why it would be the interests of town to have suggested that plan? Why specifically have I been chosen to be scum in this situation and not town for suggesting it?

[shaft.ed]

CES how's it hangin?

[cicero]

K. There is an undercurrent in this game that may as well be formally articulated. Odds are stacked against town. Very stacked. There's no super strong cop role. No vigilante, and there were 4 scum, one of which was a power stealer.

This is why this game has already had not one but TWO separate calls for a No Lynch.

In that context, the idea of jailing Gorgon indefinitely - while not a good idea - looks to me more like townie fear of a mislynch now that we know that Gorgon wasn't scumbuddies with anyone. In short, it looks like one must at least accept that what was being articulated was based on fear of mislynch without realising the implications of tying up a jailkeeper. At that point in time, we were 50/50 on Gorgon and Yvonne piped up with an off the cuff suggestion of how we might become more sure. (if Sylar killed again, it cleared Gorgon).

Does this mean she's definitely town? Of course not. When we each play as scum we all try to play as townie as possible. But the idea that there was no townie motive for that suggestion is incorrect.

Next, Fonz, what exactly is wrong with her voting Dripping Goofball? What gives is not a question. The reasons she gave made sense.

Yvonne: Please don't help me or damn me with faint praise. Fonz is exactly right. Your argument as to why I'm not scum presumes your own innocent, whereas the case against me is that I'm your scumbuddy trying to save your ass and hang an innocent man.

Yvonne re the Protection question: What I think is troubling Shaft.ed is this. Your answer seemed to infer that by going last you might catch a liar. But then when you were forced to claim early you said you targetted Adele, who you already knew had been jailed. You said no one targetted her. So I think the supposition is that this looks inconsistent. Your response after is that two others had yet to go. But if neither of them targetted Yvonne, what lie could you catch? Do you see the point?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

the chance that both Yvonne and I are scum (10.7%), very close to the odds I proposed that we both go early (one-in-nine = 11.1%), while if both of us are town (36%) then us both going towards the end and optimising the odds of catching the scum in a lie is the Beth course and 4/9 (44%) seems pretty close to optimal to me.

But we don't have a scoring rule that rewards mimicking the actual percentages. The optimal course of action is, in fact, far simpler. It's letting the watcher(s) go last consistently. You just get more variance that way. Apparently this town wants to reduce variance (I see little reason to), but that really means making a compromise which depends on risk-averse one is. Mimicking the percentage still doesn't come into play.

(For example, if you're 90% sure of a certain answer, then you should answer it 100% of the time. Also, a logarithmic scoring rule does reward mimicking the percentage.)

Unvote, vote: ckd

, 'cause I'm realizing I'd be voting for ckd come 'morrow if we no-lynch anyhow. I still think no-lynch is generally speaking a good idea here.

shaft.ed, I am not hanging. As you might have noticed, I don't even have a single vote on me.

Cicero, I see no inconsistency in Yvonne basing her play on abstract notions(ie. watcher claims last). It's a very natural opinion to hold.

[shaft.ed]

cic, Yvonne targeted the Fonz who no one targeted. I targeted Adele.

[The Fonz]

In that context, the idea of jailing Gorgon indefinitely - while not a good idea - looks to me more like townie fear of a mislynch now that we know that Gorgon wasn't scumbuddies with anyone. In short, it looks like one must at least accept that what was being articulated was based on fear of mislynch without realising the implications of tying up a jailkeeper. At that point in time, we were 50/50 on Gorgon and Yvonne piped up with an off the cuff suggestion of how we might become more sure. (if Sylar killed again, it cleared Gorgon).

I disagree, and further to the point, why is one thing which seems to me scum-benefitting (tying up the JK) so obviously just due to a town fear of mislynch, but another scum benefitting action (jailing a watcher) cause for your vote?

Does this mean she's definitely town? Of course not. When we each play as scum we all try to play as townie as possible. But the idea that there was no townie motive for that suggestion is incorrect.

When people propose ideas, it makes sense that you look at the suggestion and work out if it's broadly town-favouring or scum-favouring. Of course town occasionally suggests scum-favouring things- but why would you blithely assume Yvonne and Adele (who presumably is sufficiently au fait with the permutations to realise what the effects of typing up the jailkeeper would be) have town motives in proposing that plan?

Next, Fonz, what exactly is wrong with her voting Dripping Goofball? What gives is not a question. The reasons she gave made sense.

Cicero, I have to wonder here whether you actually read my last post. Her argument for why she thinks you're town is explicitly based off her own innocence, and implicitly based off the notion that CKD is scum. If she actually thinks CKD is town, then how can you going after CKD rather than her be any kind of town-tell on your part?

[cicero]

In that context, the idea of jailing Gorgon indefinitely - while not a good idea - looks to me more like townie fear of a mislynch now that we know that Gorgon wasn't scumbuddies with anyone. In short, it looks like one must at least accept that what was being articulated was based on fear of mislynch without realising the implications of tying up a jailkeeper. At that point in time, we were 50/50 on Gorgon and Yvonne piped up with an off the cuff suggestion of how we might become more sure. (if Sylar killed again, it cleared Gorgon).

I disagree, and further to the point, why is one thing which seems to me scum-benefitting (tying up the JK) so obviously just due to a town fear of mislynch, but another scum benefitting action (jailing a watcher) cause for your vote?

CKD is more experienced than Yvonne by far. Yvonne floated a trial balloon for the town to consider. CKD just went ahead and did what he did. I also see a difference between tieing up a rather conflicted role like the jailkeeper, and tieing up a person who could act as motivator, watcher, or extra doctor if given the right powers. CKD's action was ENORMOUSLY and BLATANTLY anti-town. It's almost impressive in its sheer audacity, if he is scum. This is far different than brainstorming a way for town to maybe have its cake and eat it too. Can you not see the obvious difference?

Does this mean she's definitely town? Of course not. When we each play as scum we all try to play as townie as possible. But the idea that there was no townie motive for that suggestion is incorrect.

When people propose ideas, it makes sense that you look at the suggestion and work out if it's broadly town-favouring or scum-favouring. Of course town occasionally suggests scum-favouring things- but why would you blithely assume Yvonne and Adele (who presumably is sufficiently au fait with the permutations to realise what the effects of typing up the jailkeeper would be) have town motives in proposing that plan?

I don't blithely assume anything. I'm raising the counterpoint based on all the information at my disposal, when others were blithely assumes the opposite and not even considering a plausible pro-town motive. I do that. And I'm not even saying it clears her. Does your suggested scumgroup include Yvonne as well as Adele because only scum would suggest it? Odds suggest it might be raised by people with town intentions.

Next, Fonz, what exactly is wrong with her voting Dripping Goofball? What gives is not a question. The reasons she gave made sense.

Cicero, I have to wonder here whether you actually read my last post. Her argument for why she thinks you're town is explicitly based off her own innocence, and implicitly based off the notion that CKD is scum. If she actually thinks CKD is town, then how can you going after CKD rather than her be any kind of town-tell on your part?

I dont have any time for her reasons why I'm town. They meant exactly nothing to the rest of you in terms of weighing my motives and alignment which is why eyebrows were raised. They are evidence of her inexperience. From her internal perspective, obviously, they are fine. They are just reasons that start from the first premise of her own innocence.

What I'm asking is what is wrong with her case against DrippingGoofball - which centres on DGB trying to suspect her no matter what facts she's using as premises turn out to be false. This is a separate point from whether she suspects me or CKD. CKD and I can both be town, and for various reasons she can infer that. In fact at various times several other players have held exactly that view. Her opinion as stated is:

1. She knows she's town and looks at the game through that prism. So she wonders why scum wouldnt just go along with her lynch. This reasoning means nothing to the rest of us and should just be deleted but from her perspective no other premise is required. She's correct.

2. So this second premise you suggest is necessary - of CKD being scum - is completely unnecessary. Premise one stands up whether he's scum or town. So what's really happening is a seperate discussion in which she states that she infers that she goes back and forth on CKD. His night action was scummy. But his adamance makes her think he might be town. Nothing novel about this stance. We've only all seen it a thousand times each in other games and situations.

3. Having eliminated two suspects at the centre of controversy, she moves on to make a case on a third party - Dripping Goofball. The case she makes is a reasonable one. It is:
a) Dripping Goofball suspected Yvonne based on her links to Mathcam and Gorgon
b) Gorgon came up SK. Mathcam came up town.
c) DGB insisted her case on Yvonne remained unchanged from the day before.
d) But that was impossible because the case made had been shattered.

That part of her case against DGB is unassailable.

e) Then DGB suggests a case for pushing Gorgon and then backing down. This case is debatable, but really only makes sense if they are linked in Mafia.
f) Two weird night actions now which cannot be confirmed. We should reflect on whether they were weird or not. I don't know. This doesnt say much.

So I asked: What's so wrong with her making this case, because it seemed like what YOU wanted to do was tie three completely seperate lines of thought to make them interdependent. Which they quite obviously are not.

[The Fonz]

CKD is more experienced than Yvonne by far. Yvonne floated a trial balloon for the town to consider. CKD just went ahead and did what he did. I also see a difference between tieing up a rather conflicted role like the jailkeeper, and tieing up a person who could act as motivator, watcher, or extra doctor if given the right powers. CKD's action was ENORMOUSLY and BLATANTLY anti-town. It's almost impressive in its sheer audacity, if he is scum. This is far different than brainstorming a way for town to maybe have its cake and eat it too. Can you not see the obvious difference?

OK, CKD's more experienced than Yvonne. Adele? Also, it doesn't strike me that Yvonne is exactly a raw newbie. She has six months on the site and six completed games. Also, we're comparing apples to oranges. Night actions and daytalk are fundamentally different things. I cannot think of many bigger scumtells that can occur during the day than a) pushing a scum-favouring plan, b) attributing to others positions they never held (claiming that everyone supported the idea of 'watchers go last' in perpetuity) and c) refusing to claim when it is the consensus that one do so.

I don't blithely assume anything. I'm raising the counterpoint based on all the information at my disposal, when others were blithely assumes the opposite and not even considering a plausible pro-town motive. I do that. And I'm not even saying it clears her. Does your suggested scumgroup include Yvonne as well as Adele because only scum would suggest it? Odds suggest it might be raised by people with town intentions.

Where does anyone assume that suggesting something scummy makes someone definitely scum? Whereas you appear to be arguing precisely that CKD's action is entirely incompatible with his being town (since you claim to get a protown feeling from him otherwise).

What I'm asking is what is wrong with her case against DrippingGoofball - which centres on DGB trying to suspect her no matter what facts she's using as premises turn out to be false. This is a separate point from whether she suspects me or CKD. CKD and I can both be town, and for various reasons she can infer that.

I never said there was anything wrong in the case on DrippingGoofball itself, did I? What I said was, it's logically inconsistent to make one argument premised off CKD being scum, and then vote someone else.

CKD and you could OF COURSE be both town. But it's not valid to argue for your innocence off the basis of CKD's guilt, then vote someone other than CKD.

This is the crux of my argument. For Yvonne's argument in your favour to carry any weight whatsoever, CKD must be scum. Your unwillingness to vote Yvonne, 'preventing a mislynch' is only a towntell IF CKD IS SCUM. My position is that it is not a towntell to shun a particular town wagon, if the alternative is another town wagon.

So this second premise you suggest is necessary - of CKD being scum - is completely unnecessary. Premise one stands up whether he's scum or town.

No it doesn't. I'd like you to explain why favouring one wagon on a town player over another wagon on a town player could reasonably be considered a town tell.

If you concede that it cannot, then Yvonne's defence of you and her non-voting of CKD are inconsistent with one another, and one or other (or both) must be invalid.

In other news,

Vote: YvonneSeer

With CES voting CKD, that reduces the likelihood of a CKD/CES pairing. I don't see CKD as scum with cicero or Adele (Adele's possible scumtell of suggesting CKD lock up Gorgon indefinitiely, and CKD's of locking up Adele, both seem to be more reasonable from a scum perspective if the other is town). I know I'm not scum with CKD. This, from my perspective, leaves an awfully limited number of options for CKD scumgroups, and a majority of plausible CKD scumgroups from my perspective also include Yvonne (I think Yvonne/Adele are likely scumpartners, but Yvonne is more likely to be scum if Adele is not than vice versa, imho). I'm pretty confident this is the better lynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'd say Yvonne was a clearly easier lynch, Fonzdude. Going after harder lynches is a town tell in LyLo. Note that this doesn't rely on ckd being scum or for that matter Yvonne being town.

[The Fonz]

I'm not sure CKD

is

a harder lynch, though. I'm also sceptical of the use of the terms 'easy lynch' and 'hard lynch' in general, cause, usually when I see someone described as an 'easy lynch' it means they're a relatively new player who's dropped a ton of scumtells, or a known player with a very antitown playstyle.

It's basically saying that it's wrong to go after the player who's done the most obviously scummy things. And I think that's just ludicrous. In the same way I dislike the 'newbie card' outside of the RTR.

[Adele]

Been waiting a fair while for a votecount, so I decided to go ahead and make one. Having discovered in putting it together that CKD's at -3 I feel comfortable placing my vote on him now.

Vote: CuriousKarmaDog

Votecount (please correct me if there are any errors):

CKD: 3 (cicero, cogito ergo sum, Adele)
Yvonne: 2 (DGB, Fonz)
DGB: 1 (Yvonne)
Cicero: 1 (CKD)

not voting: shafted

[shaft.ed]

OK I'm reading and pondering. I will cast a vote today. After skimming this page Fonz is absolutely correct about "easy" lynches. Also note with 3 scum and 5 to lynch most mislynches will be on the easy side for scum.

[shaft.ed]

Seol could we please get votecounts. We haven't had one all day. And I always find players posting them as a scum tell. I don't want to have to deal with that urge because we aren't get any mod provided VC's.

Thanks

[YvonneSeer]

Yvonne re the Protection question: What I think is troubling Shaft.ed is this. Your answer seemed to infer that by going last you might catch a liar. But then when you were forced to claim early you said you targetted Adele, who you already knew had been jailed. You said no one targetted her. So I think the supposition is that this looks inconsistent. Your response after is that two others had yet to go. But if neither of them targetted Yvonne, what lie could you catch? Do you see the point?

Yeah shaft.ed already pointed this out. I didn't target Adele. I targetted Fonz.

And shaft.ed, did I answer your question?

[shaft.ed]

Pretty much. To be honest I had a very specific reason for obtaining a specific answer from you and I've completely blanked as to why that was. I really need to start writing these things down.

[curiouskarmadog]

couple pages has past, need to catch up...see I have 3 votes..Adele and Cicero and I am not surprised about, I will probably be changing my vote back to Yvonne for obvious reasons, but I need to read what I have missed to be sure..should be caught up here in 24.

Question to be answered later (post game I think). If I was right on my initial read of Adele and she turns out to be scum, was it still an anti-town move to jail her?