cicero wrote:Adele's response to being jailed by CKD is underwhelming and her hesitance to post a lot concerns me. I know she has a busy life and some computer monitor issues, however. How are those things going Adele?
CKD's move doesn't seem a plausible move for town to make to me. I'm immediately suspicious of this move and am pretty well prepared to vote accordingly, unless No Lynch is the better plan (right now my concern with No Lynch is it improves the town's odds of lynching scum nest but long-term decreases town's chance of winning and need to think about it.)
Now, the personal matter. I've not been "hesitant" to post. I
think
that I've posted every time I've gone online recently. But while, a month ago, I was going online every day at my job, I'm now only going online about three times a week. About three weeks ago I was fired, and I'm struggling with a number of issues - not least of which is general motivation/optimism/whatever - to get my arse in gear every day and jobhunt. Making a detour to an internet cafe on top of that is something I'm failing at more than succeeding at right now.
I didn't want to bring this matter onto the site, and I
certainly
didn't want to admit that I'm finding things tough going in a thread that I know my big brother will read (and I apologise for both), but if people are leery of my reasons for underposting and think I may be lurking as scum then... well, when personal stuff gets in the way, it seems to me it's time to make account for the personal stuff.
cicero wrote:The drawback is, if Adele is scum, she can spend her time protecting her scumbuddies and insisting, like Fonz is, on a policy of non-revelation. (A policy I'm still not very comfortable with, by the way).
I have no interest in keeping my night choices a secret. While I can see the upside to Fonz not disclosing his choices if he's town, overall I think it's best if he spills.
I support a chainclaim tomorrow (including Fonz). Chaimclaims (popcorn?) my fave, and I've always supported their use in claims such as this. I'm okay with dice though.
Shaft.ed wrote:Adele wrote:Now, watching powers are useful for catching folk in lies, right? Except a watcher can, in fact, be scum. So a suggestion: as early as possible in the day, someone does a dicetags post with (say) 9 sides; if it's 1-4 Yvonne and I both wait to the end to claim, if 5 or 6 I claim first/early, if 7 or 8 she does, if 9 we both do. By doing this in the morning if couldn't affect the nightchoices; if either she or I is scum then we're either crippled or high-risk, while if we're not the other scum still has the chance of being in significant danger.
Would like to note that Adele did propose a randomized claiming strategy but it greatly favored either her or Yvonne claiming at the end of the cycle.
Yes, since each of us is
probably
town, our powers should be favoured towards the "potentially catching out targeters" rather than "potentially being caught out". Please note that the alternative to going last was going
first
(or as near as is convenient), rejecting only the chances of us being in the middle. I gave each of us a one-in-three chance of going at the start rather than the end, and odds that at least one of us would probably have to go early. I stand by the strategy itself, and find your mathematical characterisation of it to be suspect; the chance that both Yvonne and I are scum (10.7%), very close to the odds I proposed that we both go early (one-in-nine = 11.1%), while if both of us are town (36%) then us both going towards the end and optimising the odds of catching the scum in a lie is the best course and 4/9 (44%) seems pretty close to optimal to me.
Given all that, it's worth noting exactly how useful Yvonne and I are; not only could we, if targeting the person who died, know who the killer is, but we could catch other lies going (say cicero's scum, and he performed the kill but claimed to target one of his scumbuddies - if Yvonne or I targeted that scumbuddy then we'd know that wasn't true, that cicero's lying
and
that that scumbuddy was; two scum caught). Wanting us two to go as soon as possible to try to catch us in a lie when we'd probably use our ability as scum anyway because it has more of a trail seems scummy to me. If I blathered and misexplained myself here, though, please say so. It's clear in my head but when I try to type it out it just seems... verbose.
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Lynch Versus No Lynch
Let me see. We're at 5:3. If we lynch wrong today and the scum NK successfully it's 3:3 game over.
If we nolynch today and the scum successfully NK tonight then it's 4:3 tomorrow with potential information. A higher concentration of the game is scum, making it apparently easier to hit scum but actually giving scum 3/7ths of the power, so I think it'd actually be slightly harder.
There seem to me 6 possibilities:
Lynch wrong, NK = 3:3 (game over)
Lynch wrong, no NK = 4:3
Lynch right, NK = 4:2
Lynch right, no NK = 5:2
Nolynch, NK = 4:3
Nolynch, no NK = 5:3 (status quo)
For simplicity, let's assume that there will be an NK tonight, and that our best pick to lynch today has a fifty-fifty chance of being scum.
Lynch = 50% game over, 50% 4:2 + 1 known scum + more useful information
NoLynch = 4:3; IMO still 50% of wrong lynch.
I think that the town, right now, has just over 50% odds if we lynch according to the best information that we have. And I think our odds fall if we nolynch tonight. Take it to the endgame; would you rather have 3:1 or 2:1 in endgame? Would you rather keep the possibility of No Lynch to then?
Can anyone demonstrate to me that NoLynch today isn't guaranteeing town survival overnight but paying with a reduced chance of ultimately winning?
I bet you're scum and you bet I'm scum. Are you willing to bet that I'm scum? I asked you first and you switched it. So what are the stakes, big guy? 