Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[shaft.ed]

God there's still too much for me to catch up on. I don't like posting with a partial view of what's going on, but I do want to say that I liked DGB's recent review of Yvonne. And add that if you find Yvonne's targeting of me to be odd, which I do, she's likely scum that had to add in a second target after Adele.

Also I'm highly likely to be voting Gorgon once I get caught up. I just checked and he's active on this site with almost total blackout within this game. I think he's just hoping this will blow over, or someone else will slip up before he faces a lynch.

[DrippingGoofball]

Come to think of it, it's strange that the mafia didn't kill the doctor.

vote: YvonneSeer

[mathcam]

DGB: What do you think about the argument against Gorgon?

Cam

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB: What do you think about the argument against Gorgon?

The case against Gorgon underwhelms me.

Yvonne is more likely scum/SK (I can't decide which), and will be a more informative lynch, because of the very well defined relationships she has with some players.

@Cam - why do you think Gorgon is more vote-worthy than Yvonne?

[shaft.ed]

I think from the description of my power the answer is no but could you answer this one for me

Seol, if I motivate mafia will they be able to use their power and perform a NK, not just two power choices?

I think it's fairly relevant as to whether Yvonne's mafia or not.

[Thestatusquo]

DGB adds a delicious amount of wifom to her list of stupid game posts, in addition, she fails to realize that the scum went for an investigative role, which is a better role than a doctor anyway

[Gorgon]

Well, I'm here. I'm dismayed that shaft.ed calls my response to DBG's analysis 'overdefensiveness'. I'm sure people will appreciate that I'm in a precarious position, and therefore don't like spurious attacks on me. I'm also almost insulted by the fact that shaft.ed saw no reason to address DGB's analysis, nor my response, as such - the only thing that seems to matter is that she threw accusations against me, and I defended myself. Bah.

Anyway ...

TSQ has been climbing up my scum list. He hasn't been that active today, and might easily be using his attitude towards DBG as a front (the same way he might have been using ZA). Also, I realise that this might be unfair, but the fact that ZA turned up town somewhat undermines TSQ's credibility.

Yvonne is also interesting. I actually do like DBG's case against her. Also, I note that the only guy she ever voted for was Oman, right at the bat - a random vote. What's up with that? Apart from this, she threw out only one FOS. Hardly evidence of persistent scumhunting.

She does explain this here though:

I don't find anyone particularly scummy. My vote on Oman starts all the way back from the random stage but only because there is no one else that needs my vote more. I guess it's probably gonna be Oman or No Lynch for me.

Going by instinct however, I've a generally bad feeling about Adele. Can't really explain it, it's been like this since early D1.

I don't like this though. If her instinct told her 'Adele', why not vote her? She gives absolutely no valid reason for keeping her vote on Oman.

[Seol]

I think from the description of my power the answer is no but could you answer this one for me

Seol, if I motivate mafia will they be able to use their power and perform a NK, not just two power choices?

I think it's fairly relevant as to whether Yvonne's mafia or not.

If they performed the kill, they are unable to make any other nightchoices, and the motivation is wasted.

[Thestatusquo]

Except I'm not attacking DGB, Gorgon, I am voting YOU, which severely undermines the effectiveness of that point.

[Adele]

I don't have a huge amount of time, but I could get down with the Gorgon lynch (since I don't see a flaw in Mathcam's stats) and might, after doublechecking it through in a music-free environment (can't really concentrate here) be onboard with an Yvonne lynch.

[curiouskarmadog]

I don't have a huge amount of time, but I could get down with the Gorgon lynch (since I don't see a flaw in Mathcam's stats) and might, after doublechecking it through in a music-free environment (can't really concentrate here) be onboard with an Yvonne lynch.

why?

[Adele]

Because the things that people have said in the last couple of pages seem to make sense - but I can't think entirely straight with loud R&B music blaring, so I need to come back to it in a quieter internet cafe.

[curiouskarmadog]

fair enough, you seem like a pretty analytical independent thinker, so when I hear I can go with “either or” or “reasons other people have said” alarms sound…look forward to your reasons later. Even if they are the same, I am just curious which reasons and from who.

[Adele]

Once I'm actually able to think, I'll be sure to giving you that.

[shaft.ed]

Well, I'm here. I'm dismayed that shaft.ed calls my response to DBG's analysis 'overdefensiveness'. I'm sure people will appreciate that I'm in a precarious position, and therefore don't like spurious attacks on me. I'm also almost insulted by the fact that shaft.ed saw no reason to address DGB's analysis, nor my response, as such - the only thing that seems to matter is that she threw accusations against me, and I defended myself. Bah.

You're right I do think my point about your DGB defense may have been a bit unfair, I was short on time. I'll try to get something more lengthy about it up today.

Yvonne is also interesting. I actually do like DBG's case against her. Also, I note that the only guy she ever voted for was Oman, right at the bat - a random vote. What's up with that? Apart from this, she threw out only one FOS. Hardly evidence of persistent scumhunting.

This is a good point. I find that some newer scum tend to vote very infrequently so as to avoid being linked to any lynches. I'll meta Yvonne to look for general D1 voting patterns.

[shaft.ed]

I don't have a huge amount of time, but I could get down with the Gorgon lynch (since I don't see a flaw in Mathcam's stats)

Call me crazy but I thought Mathcam's stats decreased the likelihood that Gorgon was Sylar. Did I misinterperate something here?

[Adele]

...

Someone want to run by me why Gorgon is 50/50 the SK again? Or rather, for the first time because I don't think I've seen it done.

Sure. A rough argument is the following. Consider all possible pairs of the form (Player A, Player B) where Player A is Sylar and Player B is whoever Sylar tried to kill last night. As of last night, with no extra information, there were 11 possible choices (anyone but Oman) for Player A and for each choice, 10 different choices for Player B (assuming Sylar would not target himself). A total of 110 different possibilities.

Now, assuming that Sylar tried to kill last night, the fact that no one died means that Gorgon was either Player A or Player B. He is player A in exactly 10 of the 110 possibilities (e.g., (Gorgon, Adele), (Gorgon, cicero), ..., (Gorgon, The Fonz)) and is Player B also in exactly 10 of the 110 possibilities (same pairs, just flipped). Thus out of the 20 possible scenarios, he was scum in 10 of them. This makes for 50/50...

Obviously there are some erroneous assumptions in this model...

[Adele]

so I read that as a one-in-two chance, irrelevant of other factors, that Gorgon is the SK. Which is a pretty good D2 lynch.

[mathcam]

That's how I see it as well.

DGB: That also answers

@Cam - why do you think Gorgon is more vote-worthy than Yvonne?

I think the case against Yvonne has some merit, but it's nowhere near a 1-in-2 shot.

Cam

[DrippingGoofball]

so I read that as a one-in-two chance, irrelevant of other factors, that Gorgon is the SK. Which is a pretty good D2 lynch.

Why aren't you voting? I would, if I were that convinced.

[Gorgon]

Except I'm not attacking DGB, Gorgon, I am voting YOU, which severely undermines the effectiveness of that point.

I guess I wasn't clear enough. I didn't mean you were using your personal opinion towards DGB as a front for attacking her. What I meant by 'a front' was that it might be providing you with a front for not giving this game your full attention.

[mathcam]

so I read that as a one-in-two chance, irrelevant of other factors, that Gorgon is the SK. Which is a pretty good D2 lynch.

Why aren't you voting? I would, if I were that convinced.

So you're saying that you're less convinced? If so, what part of the argument do you not agree with or understand? If not, why aren't you voting?

Cam

[shaft.ed]

OK brief meta of Yvonne and I'm not seeing her lack of voting as a tell, this is pretty much normal for her playstyle. Also seeing as how she would have had to target two people, or perform the NK I don't find her targeting of me as suspicious as I had previously thought unless Adele is covering for her as a scum partner. But that would be an incredibly bad idea as Adele then has to make up investigation results tonight. Of course she could be a non-killing member of the mafia. But overall I'm not liking the case against Yvonne as much as before.

In regards to Gorgon. He's certainly more mathematically likely to be the SK, but what about his role. I'd say Gorgon's power is clearly of most use to Sylar. So how do people think that effects the numbers?

[DrippingGoofball]

so I read that as a one-in-two chance, irrelevant of other factors, that Gorgon is the SK. Which is a pretty good D2 lynch.

Why aren't you voting? I would, if I were that convinced.

So you're saying that you're less convinced? If so, what part of the argument do you not agree with or understand? If not, why aren't you voting?

We're not on the same wavelength here. Adele seems pretty convinced, I wonder why she is not voting. Giving how convinced she seems.

Has nothing to do with how *I* feel about the case against Gorgon.

Am I still confusing?

[mathcam]

In regards to Gorgon. He's certainly more mathematically likely to be the SK, but what about his role. I'd say Gorgon's power is clearly of most use to Sylar. So how do people think that effects the numbers?

I would guess that it's nearly impossible to quantify accurately, but certainly improves the merits of lynching him.

DGB: I understand what you're asking of Adele, and I'm applying the same logic to you. Either you're

not

convinced by the Gorgon argument, and I'd like to know why (more than just "underwhelmed"), or you

are

convinced by the Gorgon argument, and you're open to the same questions that you're asking Adele.

Cam