/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

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/confirm

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*hug*

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i have the most foolproof case ever assembled:

vote: charter

- failure to self-importantly announce "first post!" in the first post (keeping a low profile)
- evil laughter (being evil)

roflcopter, what do you think of question-asking in general?

i'm generally more a fan of simply stating the fact that i've figured out someone is scum, voting them, and then encouraging others to do the same. i find the best use for question asking is ascertaining which players are most likely to be scum with my prime suspect.

thesp, do you think a (presumably) random vote which is made with no additional text whatsoever is more likely to come from scum or town?

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i'm disappointed that everyone wasn't bowled over by my amazing case against charter, but we can come back to that later.

unvote, vote: kmd

number of scum slip is solid. bridgesandballoons is his partner.

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they're equally scum, so i'm gonna put my momentum where it counts

unvote, vote: bridges

elvis wagon is weaksauce. claus' attack against elvis seems primarily like a means to discredit wagons on either kmd or bnb, which is chainsawriffic.

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I think Inhimshallbe, Serial Clergy, Rofl, and Ekim are voting me because previous people were voting me. I do not believe they would have voted me if no one else was.

i'm very clearly voting you because the bandwagon on you was bigger than the one on kmd. i think you're both scum. claus is sticking out as a third.

charter is town. elvis is town. people need to stop voting for elvis. that wagon is full of scum and sheep.

i get the feeling kmd/bridges found themselves in a 4 person scumgroup, assumed that the sample role pms would simply state as much and therefore presented the information. upon discovering that the sample pms actually account for up to five scum, they are both now struggling to come up with reasons why they assumed 4, with such charming excuses as "i thought there were only 16 players." really? you haven't been paying attention to the more than a month long game placement process and announcement which very clearly indicated you had been placed in a 20 person game with only people who you were interested in playing with, or at the very least were not adverse to playing with? i don't buy it.

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i'm saying i find it very unlikely that you didn't know how many players were in the game. you must have at least looked at the player lists when the games were announced, and the numbers were very clear there. this is why i find the "i thought there were 16 people in the game" to be a poor excuse for being sure of a 4 man scumteam.

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scum would want to refute dichotomies along the lines of "if x is scum then y is town" where x, the scum, is clearly going to be the first one dead. it makes it damn near impossible to ever mislynch player y.

and i absolutely follow and agree with the logic that bridges and xyl are not scum together.

elvis, you should vote for bridges

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i thought that 4 scum plus a traitor comment was very probably sarcasm, but not the initial assumption of there being 4 scum. it looked like sarcasm being used as a deflection so he didn't have to actually get into the fact that he had slipped up. i still think he's scum.

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hey look, its the appeal to page number, my favorite terrible scum argument!

lynch bridges now please

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hey look, its the appeal to page number, my favorite terrible scum argument!

lynch bridges now please

Could you show me a single example of a good, correct argument made in a large game before page 5?

Before you waste your time looking through hundreds of games let me just tell you: it never happens. I didn't have a big case on Xyl, I was "drumming it up." and I knew it wouldn't get him lynched.

Just like I know E_k won't get lynched because she was making this "big attack on KMD for a slip that didn't exist." Because there needs to be more reason to lynch someone in a game than something simple like that.

page two of lynch all lurkers

page one of mafia 93

i only reference games i was a part of because i will not waste my time dredging through other games when i can prove you wrong so easily with these. there is some player list overlap with those two games and this one who will be able to confirm if you don't want to take the time to go look at those scum getting caught by good, correct arguments before page five of large games.

appeal to page number is a horrible, horrible excuse for anything

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@yos 246, like I said before, it's really bad logic. If the town follows bad logic that leaves it vulnerable to listen to bad logic from scum. Scum's logic is always faulty (unless there's two scum groups, a SK, or bussing) and so I want to sent a precedent that we won't follow it. Does this make sense at all? I'd attack the logic of "Bridges is town because he isn't lurking" too, that's just bad logic.

you're comparing apples and oranges.

the only reason to try to discredit the statement of "bridges and xyl aren't scum together" is if you're scum and you're in danger of getting lynched, because then xyl becomes semi-confirmed, and this is bad for your scumteam. you're just hiding behind some ridiculous "i attack all bad logic to prevent an environment where bad logic thrives" idea.

yos, you should be voting for bridges now too

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shabba's apparent lack of forum mafia experience gives me pause.

besides, a shabba wagon would take the wind out of the bridgewagon's sails, and that would be a real bummer since we should be lynching him pronto.

i still want elvis and yos to vote for bridges. two spots left on the wagon, get 'em while they're hot!

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extreme cautiousness and fear of the mislynch seems like a perfectly natural response to one's first game of forum mafia. i'm not seeing shabba's skittishness as scummy.

meanwhile, qft thesp's point re: herodotus. this late in the bridge wagon his vote really sticks out as an attempted counterwagon to save bridges and nothing else. you can't really expect to have a lurkerwagon go anywhere when we've already got a legitimate wagon practically at the bursting point.

You think both saw each other's response and backed eash other up?

yes. slip ups look more like natural reactions if multiple people profess to having the same reaction. in this case, i think bridges was trying to save kmd's patootie by saying he had the same initial idea.

and paying attention during the signup process or not, everyone looks at the first post of the game, everyone should know how many players there are. a lot of players (stupidly) don't read all the rules and sample roles thoroughly, as we've now seen since these scum didn't know how many scum were possible on a scumteam, but everyone at least looks at the player list.

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I'm much more suspicious of rofl buying the supposed slip as a slip, because I'm pretty sure he pulls that opening gambit all the time.

uh, what? what the hell gambit are you talking about?

page two of lynch all lurkers

page one of mafia 93

appeal to page number is a horrible, horrible excuse for anything

I agree. I'm not using it as an excuse.

I am not using appeal to page number to defend myself, I was using it to support why I don't think the E_k wagon or Xyl wagon will continue and turn into a lynch. So, that's why I don't consider those votes as trying as hard as one can to get lynched, because it's so early and lynches don't happen

that

early.

Now, you provided some interesting examples that sort of changes my mind, but after reading (I only read the first game) I see it was sort of an unusual situation -- Zwet who said something incredibly scummy and also threatened to lurk (super scummy because it was LAL mafia and lurking gave mafia extra NKs), and then threatened to self hammer. Anyways do you understand? I'm not using apeal to page number to defend myself, I'm using it to explain why I don't think actions that occur early in the day can really constitute "trying to lynch as hard as you can."

So,

Rofl:

please respond directly to this statement and tell me you understand what I'm saying.

can we just look for a second at what you said when you brought up page numbers in the first place?

Wait. Do you think day 1 vote before page 5 constitutes me "trying very hard to lynch one another?"

Do you

really

think that?

you are, very obviously, using the page number and nothing more to argue that we should essentially disregard what you did and draw no conclusions whatsoever about your relationship with xyl. i have provided examples of people trying as hard as they can to lynch on pages 1 and 2, and more could probably be provided, so your argument holds no merit whatsoever. just because you say that something happening before page 5 of a large game means it should be ignored doesn't mean i'm going to ignore it.

as for zwet being a special case, how scummy does one have to be in order to be a special case meriting a serious vote before page five that you intend to follow through to a lynch? this seems like an extremely arbitrary boundary, one that you've set up simply as a convenience so you can try to make everyone ignore the implications of you pushing a wagon on xyl in the early game.

It was not merely that you voted him on page "x." This is the post that made me think you and xyl are prob not scum buddies:
[ . . .]
If however, you lynch Player B and he flips scum, and then you accuse Player A of bussing, you are screwing yourself hardcore. You are not only lynching a town player and a good one who has already lynched you scum, but you are creating a paranoid environment where other players can't trust each other, and where nobody can find scum without being accused of bussing.

You know what, I disagree with your idea, but now we're just pedantically arguing theory and that's kind of not helpful.

I'm curious: have you lost any games because you assumed someone was town after they bussed their partner?

stop. this isn't about arguing theory, this is about the motivation

you

had to argue the theory in the first place.

lets look at the three possibilities here:
1 - you're town. you don't know xyl's alignment
2 - you're scum. you know xyl isn't
3 - you're scum. so is xyl

in case 3, you would keep your mouth shut and let everyone ride along with elvis' theory that you two can't be scum together. in case 1, you have no reason to argue against this theory because, not being scum yourself, you know that you

can't be scum with xyl

. only in case 2 do you have any motivation whatsoever to refute the idea that bridges and xyl can not be scum partners.

and what happened? you vehemently tried to (and continue to try to) refute the idea that you and xyl can't be scumpartners. i give you option 2, scum bridges and town xyl. thanks for playing.

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and there goes kmdscum, fleeing the wagon on his partner at the first opportunity and joining the most viable alternative wagon.

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tell me, kmd, did you read post 298 before you decided that scum can't fakeclaim vanilla as a result of a day one wagon?

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yeah, its definitely time for bridges to be lynched.

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The gambit of acting surer than you actually are about things in the early stages of the game.

i am always exactly as sure as i act. i have never gambited.

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. . . But if I come up scum, they are pro-town, remember, there's no such thing as bussing Day 1.

this one is good for the lulz because obviously before anyone ever votes for you and when you're at lynch minus one are completely comparable situations to judge your interactions with other players, amirite?

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. . . But if I come up scum, they are pro-town, remember, there's no such thing as bussing Day 1.

this one is good for the lulz because obviously before anyone ever votes for you and when you're at lynch minus one are completely comparable situations to judge your interactions with other players, amirite?

no no no no no

I'm talking about the people I will post cases on, if I find any. THOSE people are confirmed if I come up as scum.

this one is good for the lulz because obviously before anyone ever votes for you and when you're at lynch minus one are completely comparable situations to judge your interactions with other players, amirite?

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herod appears to be pre-emptively establishing a phony reason to attack thesp after bridges flips scum.

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i feel like we're just twiddling our thumbs here. bridges screamed at us to wait and then what... went on a lurkerhunt?

we have the scumteam, folks: bridges, herod, kmd, claus, maybe username too
judging my the surety with which bridges and kmd insisted on a 4 man team, one of herod and username would be a traitor.

lets bag and tag 'em

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claus: the basis for my conclusion that you're scum is your initial attempt to throw people off the scent of bridges and kmd. since then you've slowly, slowly come around to the position that bridges is scummy enough to lynch in a way that looks to me like "sigh. guess i'll have to go ahead and bus." that's why you remain on my list.

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Oh, I see!

Man, you already found what, 3, 4 scum? Please teach me your scumhunting techniques after the game

Just out of curiosity. Suppose I'm not scum, who would take my place in your list?

oh my technique is easy. step 1, find a scum. step 2, spot anyone who is overly hesitant to see them lynched, especially if they're slyly directing traffic away from their wagon, or defending them on illegitimate grounds. step 3, lynch the scum and all of his/her partners.

its never worked 100% perfectly, but i don't let that stop me from acting like it will every game.

if you aren't scum then i'm even more sure that iamausername is. he's currently holding the "if there's a 5th its this guy" spot.

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i feel like we're just twiddling our thumbs here. bridges screamed at us to wait and then what... went on a lurkerhunt?

we have the scumteam, folks: bridges, herod, kmd, claus, maybe username too
judging my the surety with which bridges and kmd insisted on a 4 man team, one of herod and username would be a traitor.

lets bag and tag 'em

I don't think we should forget zu faul either.

zu doesn't really seem connected to bridges. nor does he fit in my "no more than five scum" numerical model.

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i feel like we're just twiddling our thumbs here. bridges screamed at us to wait and then what... went on a lurkerhunt?

we have the scumteam, folks: bridges, herod, kmd, claus, maybe username too
judging my the surety with which bridges and kmd insisted on a 4 man team, one of herod and username would be a traitor.

lets bag and tag 'em

I don't think we should forget zu faul either.

zu doesn't really seem connected to bridges. nor does he fit in my "no more than five scum" numerical model.

He is on the vote-elvis-to-defend-kmd train. Also he keeps raining on the parade of every other wagon, while simultaneously not explaining why none of my explanations or further actions cause him to reevaluate me at all.

He should be considered.

you make a good point regarding his connection to kmd. since the bridges wagon took off i've been connecting exclusively to him, but when the you widen the net zu gets caught in the trap too. of course now i'm suffering from the "too many scum" syndrome.

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well claus, you fall under the umbrella of another strong relational tell that i've used with great success in my mafia career, the chainsaw defense. short version is player 1 gets attacked by player 2. player 3 steps in to attack player 2 because of attacks on player 1. if either player 1 or player 3 are scum, the other is very highly likely scum as well. your attacks on elvis have been very chainsaw-y.

but i can pretend your town for a second.

ekim case: yes, definitely valid points, but ekim doesn't fit into the bridges-scum framework. his jump onto the bab wagon wasn't at all buslike.

yos case: the timing of his bab vote makes him extremely unlikely to be a bridges scumpartner, but otherwise also a solid case. i'd want to do my own investigation into yos-meta. when bridges flips scum yos will fall neatly into the all-but-confirmed town pile along with several other players.

thesp case: i disagree. i just don't find thesp scummy here in any conceivable situation, bridges scum or not.

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So, is there any particular Claus/username scum dichotomy, or is it just a process of elimination thing?

its a process of elimination thing. of the five who i would say most likely make up the largest possible theoretical scumteam, {bridges, kmd, claus, herod, iamausername} my read on you and your connection to bridges is the least conclusive. based on comments from kmd and from bridges i'm actually guessing that the scumteam itself is made up of four members, and if there is a fifth that person is a traitor. under the hypothetical scenario of claus not being a member of the above scumteam, you slide neatly up the ladder.

but don't worry, no amount of hypothetical situations will convince me not to lynch him with extreme prejudice when bridges flips scum.

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, B&B is probably scum and, if he is, Xyl is 100% guarenteed to be town;

According to Yos, there's no such thing as bussing. Either he's forgotten all his games of mafia, or he's scum.

I'm pretty confident Yos is scum.

vote:yos

why do you think repeating the same scummy point over and over again is going to make it stick? what part of this aren't you getting.

anyone else: if bridges is scum, xyl is town
bridges: STOP RIGHT THERE! XYL COULD STILL BE SCUM WITH ME!
everyone in their right mind: now why would you say that if you were anything but scum with not xyl?

and now you use the same crap to try and

validate your vote for someone else

?

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i'm confused. why isn't bridges dead yet?

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i am against running ekim or anyone else up to claim range while we have our first scum sitting on a silver platter.

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rofl, can I get a list of all large games you have been in where the number of scum was not public knowledge from the beginning?

wow, what an annoyingly time intensive request. i'll have to get back to it when i'm on my own computer tomorrow, i don't have the patience to learn how to use a mac right now

vote: kmd

unvoting the guy who was scummy enough for him to vote for in the first place based on a vanilla claim is, itself, enough for me to want him lynched. the fact that he switched off bridges back to obvtown elvis, and is now continuing to push an elvis lynch, is just gravy. in addition i agree with what yos said, he is town.

in addition to the above two obvtowns (elvis, yos) we have charter and thesp who are very clearly town.

pooky, i like your style, but you need a better target. for example, kmd.

other scummy characters include zu faul, iamausername and serialclergyman. i was perturbed by clergy's high activity level in mafia 96 throughout the crucial end stages of the bridges lynch while he said nary a word here.

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why were you disturbed by that rofl? is endgame and day 1 quite similar in terms of play in your experience?

what? no? i was disturbed by the fact that while bridges was in the process of slowly being lynched, something that took a few days to get from claim to execution, serial didn't post once in this thread but posted up a storm in mafia 96. by not posting he didn't have to be for or against the lynch, which is a very comfortable position to be in for scum.

roflcopter, voting for Kmd3490? Really?

really. you should be too. or build a better

mousetrap

bandwagon. i feel the lurkerwagon on serial doesn't need me, and kmd's wagon does.

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rofl, can I get a list of all large games you have been in where the number of scum was not public knowledge from the beginning?

mafia 93
lynch all lurkers
crackers! mafia
xylbot mafia
mafia 96 which is ongoing but i'm dead
mafia 84

in addition i agree with what yos said, he is town.

Hath thee a read on Yos beyond agreement?

yes. you should not be voting for him.

i more or less agree with elvis' list in post 557. charter should be bumped from neutral to town and zu from neutral to scum though.

serial is chainsawing for kmd hard, and at this point attacking yos is a scumtell. yos feels like an easy target after low level rumblings yesterday about how something was "off" with his play that nobody could seem to quantify. i think there's opportunistic scum trying to take advantage of that, especially the fact that dead-town-claus was one of the most vocal in the "i don't like the way yos feels this game" camp.

rofl - My vote was on the BAB wagon and I was definitely for it. I'm not going to claim that I was impartial to it but voted him nonetheless. I was there, I wanted it to happen. Now - given almost all your theories were completely wrong, do you think you deserve some scrutiny, or were you happy with how you read yesterday?

this is a sad little deflection from the fact that you plopped your vote down and didn't make a single comment about the late stages of the wagon, content to leave it there and lurk until he was lynched. i was happy with how i read yesterday, and unless you know something i don't i still don't think all my theories were wrong. for instance, kmd-zufaul being scum together. and now i'm willing to bet on you for a third partner.

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ok

unvote, vote: serialclergyman

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yup, ekim is scum

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ekim is creating a whole lot of noise, but i'm unclear on what any of it has actually accomplished aside from detracting from the attention clergyman should be getting.

more serialclergyman votes please. vp baltar should come back to the wagon. yos2 should join us as well. and all you nonvoters need to get off your butts and do something.

serialclergyman has the official roflcopter "this is a solid wagon" seal of approval

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i'm not really getting xyl's thesp suspicion.

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i'm not really getting xyl's thesp suspicion.

Meh. I don't have enough to make a case.

fair enough. i really don't see anything in that votecount that you posted which makes me go "zomg its thesp." i was hoping you could explain why color coding it gave you that reaction.

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baltar, if you're not going to come back to the serialclergyman wagon, can you give me a better understanding of why you left it in the first place?

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for daytalking masons, claus herodotus and shabba had their votes all over the place

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is anyone around right now?

yo

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baltar, if you're not going to come back to the serialclergyman wagon, can you give me a better understanding of why you left it in the first place?

I have a stronger scum read on ekiM and username, though SC's continued neglect here isn't exactly making me

not

want to kill him. Like I said before, I'd like to hear more actual opinions and comments from him so I can either prove or disprove my suspicion.

That's your problem right there. If I think someone hasn't said enough to form an opinion on them, I lynch them.

i agree with this, which is why i want baltar back on the clergyman wagon

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charter, thesp - why aren't you voting anyone right now?

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serial, when you ask a question to which the only answer that will dissuade you from your course of action is some kind of role information, you are role fishing.

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and on that note, pooky, come back and vote for serialclergyman

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here's the gist of the conversation we had -

rofl: you shouldn't vote for yos, he is town
serial: unless you tell me a role based reason to believe he's town, i will continue to vote for him
rofl: fine i'll just lynch you

it was wrapped up in your whole "but you're doing it too" schtick, but the main thrust of "i'll need to see role info before i change my mind" is there, and thats role fishing

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rofl, if I flipped town, would you eat your hat?

no but i might eat baltar's

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Absolute crap.

the gist of the conversation was

rofl: You're chainsawing for Kmd.
Serial: Well, by that logic YOU'RE chainsawing for Yos2
rofl: Ok, vote.

yeah, see, you just left out the part where you said this:

Unless you've got some knowledge about Yos2 that I don't have

and this

If his point is that I am chainsawing because I'm defending KMD by attacking Yos2 and he makes that WHILE defending Yos2 by attacking me, he's got some explaining to do to show the difference.

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@xyl - reread the bottom of page 24

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don't worry, i chortled

the problem is your motivation for asking me to be clearer on why i think yos2 is town. you've already stated that you think I'M town, and you're making it very clear by your statements that you won't accept any reason to think yos2 is town other than some kind of role based information. there is no way for me to answer without benefiting scum. either i confirm myself as a power role, or i confirm myself as not having role info on yos2, meaning you can continue on your merry way trying to lynch him and the scum don't have to worry about nking me. this is why i didn't answer at all, and instead voted you, because the very act of trying to get further information out of me on the subject was scummy.

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not much time at the moment, i'm not happy to see that the serial wagon has completely evaporated.

unvote, vote: xyl

he should know better than to vote for yos again at this point

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i really don't like the baltar wagon. serialclergyman had a serious case of having his cake and eating it too in posts 772-773. joining the baltar wagon, and the turning around and slinging mud at ekim for

joining the baltar wagon

? i don't think there's a more obvious way to admit that you know the wagon you're on is bullshit.

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username: yes it was an oversight. i just scanned the new york and theme park forums for my past games, and mafia 90 was such an affront to humanity that it didn't catch my eye as a game i had played in. i also forgot real time mafia, a game which ended up mod abandoned.

as for my current games, my only other ongoing is webcomics wars mafia

3. In this post, rofl says that Claus has a solid case against Yos, but that Yos doesn't fit as a partner of BaB. So why, when BaB did NOT flip scum, has rofl gone ahead and started acting like he is confirmed town anyway? I think his post here was an attempt to placate Claus and push the BaB wagon through to mislynch, because he clearly had no intention of actually following up on this suspicion of Yos.

thats a very narrowminded view of what could possibly cause me to change my opinion between the end of day one and the beginning of day two

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i was under the impression that xyl had understood the implied message the first time i told him to stop voting for yos, but apparently the tidal wave of people who demand more explanation has emboldened him to go ahead and pretend he doesn't catch my drift either.

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Rofl - any comment on the rolefishing argument or are you leaving that one alone?

it should just be left alone at this point.

Xyl, who of ekiM/VP would you rather lynch?

Same question to Charter, Rofl, Yos, and Pooky.

both wagons give me the heebiejeebies, but of the two i'd go for ekim.

roflcopter, what do you think of Yos's scumlist?

with a few notable exceptions (cough vp baltar cough) its pretty close to my own.

oi. thesp vigdirecting towards yos is terrible. let me make this clear one more time. yos is not scum.

Well, leaving out roflcopter, who despite his reputation as a gut player hasn't gotten any better at reading me

until now, my friend. you've given yourself away this time.

[roflcopter]

Rofl, could you do up your 3 most scummy and 3 most townie?

town:
yos
elvis
charter

scum:
xyl
serialclergyman
kmd

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thesp had been sitting firmly in my town category right up until he just suggested the vig shoot yos, at which point my scumdar went ballistic.

kmd sitting on the ekim wagon really makes me think ekim is town

and kmd, honestly, you're going on about how you'd work your magic with yesterday's votecount if only you had it in vote order - let me give you a newsflash. the votes are all there, in the order they were made, right here in this very thread. you just need to click your way back and look.

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roflcopter was totally convinced I was scum in that game too, btw.

wow, if there's one terrible fallacious argument i hate more than all others its "you were wrong about me last game so somehow that means you're wrong about me this game too" and all of its awful variants, like the above that seems meant to convince everyone

else

that since i was wrong about you in mafia 96 i must also be wrong about you here.

[roflcopter]

I've seen you play this pretend-you-have-role-info-to-clear-someone trick before and I am not buying it.

wait, i've done that?

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I've seen you play this pretend-you-have-role-info-to-clear-someone trick before and I am not buying it.

wait, i've done that?

please fill in the blanks in my imperfect memory

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thats the kind of thing i think i would remember, and nothing springs to mind

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nowhere in my admittedly highly compartmentalized brain do i recall faking role info in any way. i have used unexplained role info in the past to clear other players in a way that people don't always understand immediately though.

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elvis is still transparently town

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i thought we were already past this, but i guess the scum are still trying to figure me out

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two of the three remaining ekim voters need to join the xyl wagon

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urk, seriously? thats gonna require me to go back and read parts of that game again, because i pretty much stopped paying any real attention to it after i died, which was a while ago.

it was gut and whatever else i said there, you and everyone else can go look for yourselves if you want. i don't see how me cluttering up this thread with why i erroneously found you scummy in another game is going to help anything.

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Rofl: okay then, how am I playing differently here?

the biggest thing is exactly what i said when i voted for you

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i would like to encourage ekim, iamausername, ojanen, serialclergyman, thesp, kmd or zufaul to hammer xyl

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i don't think there's any chance that ojanen investigated baltar

vote: kmd

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rereading some day two ojanen myself right now

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eh, ojanen took a whole bunch of exposition to get around to voting ekim yesterday. i think if she had a goon result she would have just dropped a vote first thing.

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What is the case on me?

failure to be town

where's your magical votecount analysis?

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kmd, i'd like to refer you to this post and ask you to pay more attention to the game and do the votecount analysis (or any analysis whatsoever) instead of sitting on your hands.

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i don't like the return to the vp baltar wagon. i think he's telling the truth about his role.

i also don't like how pooky managed to generate more words than he had for the entire game saying what boiled down to "here's why your votes for me suck" and nothing else

but mostly i don't like the lack of further kmd votes. come on guys.

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meh. i should take another look at charter, but my gut still says town.

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kmd has done nothing today but argue over what "i agree with x" entails and now agree with me on one of my reads. can we lynch this guy already?

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Rofl, what haven't I done that you'd like me to?

anything really. i'd particularly love if you'd stop stringing out the wait for your votecount analysis, which you began touting during the end of the day yesterday and we still haven't seen anything of.

serialclergyman needs a lesson on what constitutes fishing for a role and what doesn't. you're not "scrutinizing" me, you're trying to pare down the list of roles i could possibly be and get me to confirm or deny something. harping on the fact that i'm probably not a goon cop doesn't make me less likely to be anything else, and based on what i've been saying thinking i'm a goon cop was pretty dense anyway. not that a dead goon cop makes another goon cop any less likely in a game where multiples of all roles are possible. you're actually completely ignoring any and all roles which could in fact confirm someone as town.

i could go back to serialclergyman, but i'd rather see kmdwagon gain some traction here. come out and bus him, little scumbags. i noticed you laying the groundwork for it, sc, so why don't you hurry up and vote for him?

people who are town

yos
baltar
elvis
charter

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Rofl, as soon as I have time to go through the entire game and do my own vote counts, I'll do it.

you signed up for a new large game

yesterday

but you don't have time to make use of the vote-order counts left specifically for you by xyl, which you finally acknowledged when i rammed them down your throat? i call shenanigans.

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this shit got complicated while i was away

anyway, i'm a vanilla cop. vanillas: yos, baltar

yos i thought was scummy enough day one to check out, had he scanned non vanilla i would have been on his back day two ready to pounce at the first sign of fake vanilla claim, but instead i got the innocent confirm. baltar was an easy decision, as with his claimed vanilla i could actually use my ability like a normal cop.

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no breadcrumb before going to night one, but i did make my suspicion of yos clear when responding to claus d1. as for baltar, i agree with everything said about the fact that the xylwagon seemed to have saved his bacon on purpose and thought the same thing, i was expecting to get nonvanilla on him, but it was not the case

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huh

no, i wasn't roleblocked on night one, i got a real vanilla result. i wouldn't just misinterpret a no result, trust me.

so the options are that iaun is lying or was himself roleblocked. the latter seems pretty unlikely.. as username pointed out, a scum roleblocker should have been all over me after the clusterfuck that was yesterday, in re: the whole "is he fishing???" debate at least. i was sure i was in for some kind of scum induced shenanigans last night, be it death or roleblock, but neither ended up being the case.

since i can't really think of a scenario where there would be a scum roleblocker NOT blocking me last night, i'm left with the simple fact that i basically know username is scum. i imagine this means yos is right in his most recent post, that there are five scum and iaun is making an end run for two quick mislynches.

i'll also note that whoever claimed second in this little song and dance routine that was username forcing my claim was at a serious advantage should they be scum, and iaun seems to have just materialized a perfect claim to leave every out possible when first yos and then i do in fact flip town.

(p.s. the use of the word "investigate" was not intended as any sort of breadcrumb but note to self be careful using that word in the future)

(p.p.s the specific wording of how i started supporting baltar today

was

meant as a breadcrumb cuz i'm that awesome)

unvote, vote: iamausername

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but there is actually a way for me to be scum if yos is town, as has been pointed out, and which is something you could rely on others to notice, while there is absolutely no way for yos to be scum if i am town.

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basically with the information you claim to have, the two plausible situations are roflscum-yosscum or roflscum-yostown.. both of which involve roflscum. so there's really not any good reason to go for the guy who's got a 50/50 shot of being town, ignoring all factors beyond the way your claimed night actions interact with mine, over the guy who's got a 100% chance of being scum from your pov.

unless of course you're trying to eek as many mislynches as possible out of your play.

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probable outcome of a yos-town lynch today:
rofl is left alive overnight. iaun, others say "omg why didn't rofl get nked? plus username's data still implicates him. lynch pls!" extra gravy for the scum if there are five of them, as this can be the endgame lynch, so they won't even have to explain away the mislynch.

probable outcome of rofl-town lynch today:
yos is absolutely confirmed. scum either has to spend a nightkill on a vanilla or leave an absolutely confirmed yos2 in play. thats what i call being between a rock and a hard place.

side point - rofltown lynch

also

confirms baltar as town, another pesky confirmed vanilla scum would have to deal with somehow, and up to this point a heavily suspected player. yostown lynch does not have this drawback either, as baltar is basically left out of the equation so long as the yos-or-rofl choice is tipped towards yos

combine the above with what i bring up in 1292 and you have the most likely explanation for username trying to pin this lynch on yos instead of me

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while i'm on a posting roll here tonight, let me just mention how sneaky-scummy thesp has been of late. still sitting on a baltar vote, making sure i claimed before username, and AGAIN with the vig directing. there wasn't even a second kill last night! why are you wasting time discussing what the vig should do?

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I just thought it would be better to lynch the claimed vanilla than the claimed cop, when there is still a chance that they're not scum. I still don't understand why you think rofl would take a gamble on Yos being vanilla when there is no reason for him to do that, but if you honestly think there's a risk of that then sure, it's better to lynch rofl.

there's multiple reasons why a scum would take a stab in the dark on a fakeclaim. if you were town i'd expect you to at least

consider

the possibility. it certainly seemed like the way you were trying to force my claim with minimal information from yourself was to try and paint a presumed-from-your-point-of-view scum rofl into a corner, and being painted into such a corner is exactly when fakeclaiming scum would have to take a shot in the dark and hope they hit. instead you immediately disregard the scenario to give yourself grounds to start setting up the obviously more optimal for the scums yos lynch.

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elvis, i thought you knew me better than this. would i ever flinch when it comes to lynching the person i wholeheartedly stood behind running up to a claim?

yos has essentially already explained it, but derailing the bridges wagon myself, making an investigation on him and then probably having to out myself to either stop further bridges wagoning or admit that, yes he's scum and sorry i derailed the bandwagon to delay his lynch by a day, seemed like terrible play when i could just lynch him and get on with the game instead.

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Informal poll - who thought before last night that roflcopter was softclaiming role information? (This will be helpful, I think.)

i did! (cue exasperated laughter)

roflcopter, why did you telegraph that you had some sort of role based info on Yos?

i could feel the tide shifting towards a yos bandwagon and wanted to clamp that down before any time was wasted on it

it occurs to me that there is one possible role which the scum may have felt compelled to roleblock-hunt for over blocking me, but it still seems like a really low probability scenario to have username blocked night one and anyone but me blocked night two

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thats just not the way i play. the only role i've ever consciously altered my playstyle for has been doctor.

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Appeal to emotion, bunny. I know your playstyle is aggressive, and I would not expect you to flinch under normal circumstances, but this is a specific circumstance where your role is directly capable of providing definitive evidence on a guy.

this softens my future stance on appeals to emotion, at least among players with a long history of games. that was just so natural.

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rofl, I want scum list from you right now.

username
kmd
serial
thesp
zu
pooky
ekim
tajo
elvis
charter
(baltar, yos)

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arguments for lynching a 3rd party are not holding any water for me. unless there's a really good reason to believe a roleblocker could have been on username night one and anyone but me night two, this should be a choice between the two of us.

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solid gut read

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i don't understand why the new claim makes people want to lynch username less. if it comes down to it i'll switch back to kmd before deadline, but really this should be a no-brainer.

there's still very little chance that a scum roleblocker was on username night one and anyone but me night two.

and finally, some vig-directing i can agree with! the vig-tajo plan is all upside. unfortunately i doubt a vig with any shots left would have held fire last night.

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Pooky, pay attention to the last page ffs. Lynching Tajo 100% confirms either rofl scum or four town, with lots of info afterwards. What do YOU think about tajos claim?

wait wait wait what part of scum tajo confirms me as scum? i just got sudden "serial is bussing tajo" chills, with a side of feeling like tomorrow's sacrificial lamb.

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no lynch is a decent option. i still really don't get why we're not lynching iamausername. kmd is apparently town, so if there's going to be a non-username lynch my preference falls to serialclergyman. or pooky, who does not inspire confidence with his outbursts. but honestly guys, username lynch.

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Rofl, you are correct, Tajo scum flip doesn't confirm you scum. My bad.

as noble as admitting fault is, it doesn't make the fact that you tried to set it up that way any better

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Ok, sure, whatever. Let's lynch Tajo then after his flip we can work out whether your suspicions about me buzzing him were right.

no, thats dumb, we should clearly be lynching username

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lynching tajo is dumb. what yos said.

unvote, vote: pooky

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i have no idea what tajo's gameplan was yesterday. i really didn't think it was possible for him to be scum fakeclaiming when my neck was on the line at the time. considering the counterwagon that almost lynched over tajo was pooky, i'm pretty sure he's town. which is why i didn't investigate him.

instead i investigated thesp. he's not vanilla.

vote: thesp

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it can't be lylo, so that works even if its not ideal. tajo's antics clearly mark me for death.

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serial, ekim, charter if its a four man team. add zu if its five. i think most of the scumteam claimed nonvanilla. tajo's claim implicates charter, plus he and ekim both made claims that are only comfirable if they're lynched/wagoned and sc's "confirmable" claim actually requires him to die, which he may never do.

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also <3

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But honestly, I don't see too much of a reason to risk it and vote him over rofl (given that if town, rofl will potentially give three results where Yos2 would give none.)

Realistically, is there any circumstance where we are going to lynch anyone else at all before we lynch those two? I don't think there is, and I think we should lynch them in the order that helps most. There's a reasonable chance Yos is Godfather and rofl is traitor, and I think very little chance of the other way around. Also, if rofl is somehow town there's one more night for him to investigate, allowing him to give us four results instead.

Vote: Yosarian2

and since yos is vanilla, you're trying to lynch him before you lynch me and he's confirmed. nice try scum.

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if i didn't have a guilty i'd be demanding an ekim lynch right about now. its all upside, since his claim is vengeful townie.

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tajo made that decision on his own, considering the mafia role pms don't say anything about day talking. there's no "they" thinking anything is a good idea.

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it goes without saying that there must be a scum roleblocker, since username was town and claimed a block on me on a night when i got results. i can only imagine they blocked kmd last night instead of me.

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ninja'd!

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this is getting silly - lynching yos first will only wind up giving the scum a mislynch on someone who should be confirmed by my death before a mislynch of me tomorrow.

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i hate being scum so much. i have approximately zero fun when i am. good game town.