/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

[iamausername]

I'm an X-shot Jailkeeper (not telling you what X is unless someone gives me a good reason why I should), and I jailed rofl on N1.

I jailed him because I believed he was scum, and no one else did, so if I was right, good chance he'd be making the scum kill and I'd block it, and if I was wrong, good chance he'd be the target of the scum kill and I'd protect him. Seemed like the best choice all around.

Didn't jail anyone N2.

I'm aware that this wouldn't have stopped rofl getting an innocent result if he was a Hider, and for that reason, I wasn't going to do this counterclaim thing until I spotted this here:

i don't like the return to the vp baltar wagon. i think he's telling the truth about his role.

which is clearly specifically crumbing the Vanilla Cop role. Points for consistency.

I'm also aware that I could have been targeted by a Mafia Roleblocker on N1, and that this would have allowed rofl to get his result. However, for this to be true, you have to also believe that the scum did not decide to block rofl on N2, despite him having very obviously softclaimed an investigative role, and there being no other power roles exposed. That seems very unlikely to me.

Of course, if rofl is scum, you have to also believe that Yos is scum and rofl felt the need to protect him at all costs when he really wasn't in all that much danger, or that rofl decided to stake his survival on the hope that townYos is not a power role. The latter would be ridiculously stupid, so I'm discounting that and assuming the former. My theory is that rofl and Yos are Mafia Lovers, because I can't seeing him being that desperate to keep Yos alive if they weren't.

So, yeah, I don't have 100% damning evidence that rofl is scum, if I did, I would have just gone ahead and said so without waiting for a claim from him first. If you really think that necessitates a lynch on me, then I guess go ahead, but I don't believe that what I've done here has hurt the town.

By the way, we're not lynching rofl today. It would clearly be a better idea to lynch Yos, because he is definitely scum if rofl is scum, and on the off chance that rofl is actually telling the truth, we'd be lynching a vanilla rather than a cop.

Unvote, Vote: Yosarian2

[iamausername]

It's a little different. I asked KMD why he voted Elvis, and his only reason was "becuase I suspected her yesterday", which isn't actually a reason at all; it looked more like he was using consistancy as a defense in lieu of actual pro-town reasoning for a vote that seemed bad to me, and that seems scummy; it wasn't just that he used that as a reason, it was that he didn't seem able to come up with any other reason.

Elvis basically just said "I'm not going to trust Iamusername over Rofl without a claim, because rofl seems town to me and iamusername seems scumy". That seems like a perfectly reasonable statement to me.

I'm not talking about the fact that elvis didn't immediately trust my softclaiming, I'm talking about the reasons that she finds me scummy in the first place. Do you know what those reasons are? I believe if you look into it, you will find that it bears a very strong resemblance to KMD's "because I suspected her yesterday" case.

[Yosarian2]

Interesting claim. Rofl, what form did your result come in?

By the way, we're not lynching rofl today. It would clearly be a better idea to lynch Yos, because he is definitely scum if rofl is scum

??

Why would you assume that?

It's highly unlikely a scum would fake a claim just to defend a buddy with only a few on him. If rofl is scum, then it's most likely that he did that in order to buddy up with me and set himself up for a safe claim later.

Let me be clear about this. You lynch me and I flip vanilla, which I would, it does NOT 100% confirm rofl as town, and you guys need to remember that.

[mith]

Vote Count:

7 to lynch.

charter: 2 (elvis_knits, zu_Faul)
Kmd4390: 2 (populartajo, roflcopter)
roflcopter: 2 (ekiM, SerialClergyman)
SerialClergyman: 2 (VP Baltar, Yosarian2)
PookyTheMagicalBear: 1 (Kmd4390)
populartajo: 1 (charter)
VP Baltar: 1 (Thesp)
Yosarian2: 1 (iamausername)

Not Voting: 1 (PookyTheMagicalBear)

[iamausername]

As I said, you otherwise have to assume that rofl was gambling on the fact that you aren't a power role, which would be incredibly stupid on his part.

[SerialClergyman]

Call me paranoid, but under what circumstances are you suggesting you could be wrong, iam (assuming you're telling the truth)? Was it just the roleblocker theory?

And while we're at it, Yos2, do you want to confirm you're vanilla? I imagine it goes without saying having read your posts, but you haven't stated it explicably.

[SerialClergyman]

I actually agree with Yos2 above. I think it's odd that the lynch is being directed to Yos2.

[iamausername]

Call me paranoid, but under what circumstances are you suggesting you could be wrong, iam (assuming you're telling the truth)? Was it just the roleblocker theory?

Yeah, just that. I don't think it's likely, because I don't see why rofl wouldn't have been blocked N2, but I certainly think it's more likely than scumrofl claiming certainty that townYos is vanilla when he couldn't actually know if that was the case.

[Yosarian2]

And while we're at it, Yos2, do you want to confirm you're vanilla? I imagine it goes without saying having read your posts, but you haven't stated it explicably.

I already did.

Ok. I'm not contradicting rofl's claim; I am a vanilla.

[SerialClergyman]

Wow, sorry about that, must have missed it.

[Yosarian2]

As I said, you otherwise have to assume that rofl was gambling on the fact that you aren't a power role, which would be incredibly stupid on his part.

(shrug) Well, he may not have been expected to be forced to claim before I either claimed or died.

[SerialClergyman]

Yos2, who are you believing more at this point?

I think the liklihood of Yos2 and rofl being lovers is less than the liklihood rofl would bet on yos2town being vanilla, personally. He may have also been planning to claim full cop rather than vanilla cop but felt hampered by the goon cop flip.

[Yosarian2]

Yos2, who are you believing more at this point?

I don't know. I'm uncomfortable with the way Iamusername seems to be leaving himself multiple outs; first, he wants to lynch me instead of rofl (when me flipping vanilla is safe for Iam), and he also seems to still leave himself outs if rofl flips town.

I actually am wondering if Iamusername could be scum who's trying to set up two mislynches in a row for a scum win; that's the only reason I can think of why he'd want to lynch me first instead of rofl, is if there's 5 scum and the scum win if they mislynch 2 more times.

[SerialClergyman]

Iam, why the Pooky vote at the start of the day?

[roflcopter]

huh

no, i wasn't roleblocked on night one, i got a real vanilla result. i wouldn't just misinterpret a no result, trust me.

so the options are that iaun is lying or was himself roleblocked. the latter seems pretty unlikely.. as username pointed out, a scum roleblocker should have been all over me after the clusterfuck that was yesterday, in re: the whole "is he fishing???" debate at least. i was sure i was in for some kind of scum induced shenanigans last night, be it death or roleblock, but neither ended up being the case.

since i can't really think of a scenario where there would be a scum roleblocker NOT blocking me last night, i'm left with the simple fact that i basically know username is scum. i imagine this means yos is right in his most recent post, that there are five scum and iaun is making an end run for two quick mislynches.

i'll also note that whoever claimed second in this little song and dance routine that was username forcing my claim was at a serious advantage should they be scum, and iaun seems to have just materialized a perfect claim to leave every out possible when first yos and then i do in fact flip town.

(p.s. the use of the word "investigate" was not intended as any sort of breadcrumb but note to self be careful using that word in the future)

(p.p.s the specific wording of how i started supporting baltar today

was

meant as a breadcrumb cuz i'm that awesome)

unvote, vote: iamausername

[iamausername]

Yes, I'm totally setting up two mislynches in a row by repeatedly declaring that there is no way that rofl is scum if Yos is town. That makes sense.

[roflcopter]

but there is actually a way for me to be scum if yos is town, as has been pointed out, and which is something you could rely on others to notice, while there is absolutely no way for yos to be scum if i am town.

[roflcopter]

basically with the information you claim to have, the two plausible situations are roflscum-yosscum or roflscum-yostown.. both of which involve roflscum. so there's really not any good reason to go for the guy who's got a 50/50 shot of being town, ignoring all factors beyond the way your claimed night actions interact with mine, over the guy who's got a 100% chance of being scum from your pov.

unless of course you're trying to eek as many mislynches as possible out of your play.

[SerialClergyman]

I agree with rofl on this. I find it really quite weird that you'd avocate a Yos2 lynch over a rofl lynch.

[roflcopter]

probable outcome of a yos-town lynch today:
rofl is left alive overnight. iaun, others say "omg why didn't rofl get nked? plus username's data still implicates him. lynch pls!" extra gravy for the scum if there are five of them, as this can be the endgame lynch, so they won't even have to explain away the mislynch.

probable outcome of rofl-town lynch today:
yos is absolutely confirmed. scum either has to spend a nightkill on a vanilla or leave an absolutely confirmed yos2 in play. thats what i call being between a rock and a hard place.

side point - rofltown lynch

also

confirms baltar as town, another pesky confirmed vanilla scum would have to deal with somehow, and up to this point a heavily suspected player. yostown lynch does not have this drawback either, as baltar is basically left out of the equation so long as the yos-or-rofl choice is tipped towards yos

combine the above with what i bring up in 1292 and you have the most likely explanation for username trying to pin this lynch on yos instead of me

[iamausername]

I just thought it would be better to lynch the claimed vanilla than the claimed cop, when there is still a chance that they're not scum. I still don't understand why you think rofl would take a gamble on Yos being vanilla when there is no reason for him to do that, but if you honestly think there's a risk of that then sure, it's better to lynch rofl.

[roflcopter]

while i'm on a posting roll here tonight, let me just mention how sneaky-scummy thesp has been of late. still sitting on a baltar vote, making sure i claimed before username, and AGAIN with the vig directing. there wasn't even a second kill last night! why are you wasting time discussing what the vig should do?

[roflcopter]

I just thought it would be better to lynch the claimed vanilla than the claimed cop, when there is still a chance that they're not scum. I still don't understand why you think rofl would take a gamble on Yos being vanilla when there is no reason for him to do that, but if you honestly think there's a risk of that then sure, it's better to lynch rofl.

there's multiple reasons why a scum would take a stab in the dark on a fakeclaim. if you were town i'd expect you to at least

consider

the possibility. it certainly seemed like the way you were trying to force my claim with minimal information from yourself was to try and paint a presumed-from-your-point-of-view scum rofl into a corner, and being painted into such a corner is exactly when fakeclaiming scum would have to take a shot in the dark and hope they hit. instead you immediately disregard the scenario to give yourself grounds to start setting up the obviously more optimal for the scums yos lynch.

[Kmd4390]

So Iam claims to have jailed Rofl, who claimed a result on the same night, but Iam says it's NOT damning and wants to lynch Yos?

A) How is it not damning if true?
B) If Rofl was jailed, why would he lie about it knowing he'd be caught?
C) How the hell does this translate to a Yos vote?
D) Iam is scum.

Unvote, Vote Iamausername

[SerialClergyman]

Is it just me or did kmd's questions all get answered in the actual discussion?

a) because iam may have been roleblocked D1
b) because presumably the mod doesn't tell rofl he was jailed,
c) because on the off chance that a) is true, he wanted a vanilla lynched rather than a cop.
d) Could be true, but at least follow the discussion before you come to that conclusion.

You don'th ave to believe the answers above, you just have to acknowledge their possibility and judge them according to how likely you believe they are to be true.

I'm really conflicted because I think rofl had the better of the claims but I think iam's play has been more town (and even forcing the claim at all makes him unlikely to be scum.)

I'm still thinking.

iam, why not being up role info earlier when Xyl was about to be lynched and you had pretty damning evidence against rofl?