/in-Vitational Game 4 (Game Over!)

ISO · Post Post #1750 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 9:13 am

Deadline:

Approximately 18 hours from this post.

Vote Count:

7 to lynch.

populartajo: 6 (charter, ekiM, elvis_knits, Kmd4390, SerialClergyman, VP Baltar)
PookyTheMagicalBear: 5 (iamausername, populartajo, Thesp, Yosarian2, zu_Faul)
iamausername: 2 (PookyTheMagicalBear, roflcopter)

populartajo · Post Post #1751 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 9:39 am

Who thinks Pooky is town?

Even better, who thinks Pooky is more likely town than me?

Seriously, guys.

VP Baltar · Post Post #1752 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 9:47 am

Yos wrote:They have? What points are those?

From a strategic point of view, I think we learn more from the tajo lynch.

However, you do appear to be correct that if he flips town we have to lynch right every day until the end of the game. I don't like those odds at all.

Unvote

I need a minute to look at some numbers.

ugh.

One thing I'd like you to answer Yos, is why do you back a Pooky lynch when we could be in the same exact situation tomorrow if he flips town? Wouldn't the proper thing to do in that situation be to vote for a no lynch?

elvis_knits · Post Post #1753 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:00 am

I wish this wasn't so complicated.

I just don't want to be on the short list of possible scum if we haven't confirmed the info.

But, no, I don't think pooky is town.

ekiM · Post Post #1754 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:03 am

Who thought Tajo was town before his claim?

ekiM · Post Post #1755 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:14 am

Also Thesp, zu_Faul, and IAUN all voting for Pooky when they could easily have supported a Tajo lynch. Doesn't leave a plausible scumteam if Tajo's claimed confirmations are true.

ekiM · Post Post #1756 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:15 am

EBWOP: I mean, one including Pooky.

charter · Post Post #1757 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:17 am

ekiM wrote:Doesn't leave a plausible scumteam if Tajo's claimed confirmations are true.

Yep. Yos has outed himself as scum as well, but that was likely anyway.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1758 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:38 am

VP Baltar wrote: One thing I'd like you to answer Yos, is why do you back a Pooky lynch when we could be in the same exact situation tomorrow if he flips town? Wouldn't the proper thing to do in that situation be to vote for a no lynch?

No. If there are 5 scum, then No-lynch puts in in a 12 player lynch-wrong-and lose situation tomorrow, which is even worse.

I'm voting Pooky because I think he's probably scum, more likely scum then tajo, and we have to lynch scum today. I'd still rather lynch SC, who I think HAS to be scum, but it looks like that isn't going to happen.

charter · Post Post #1759 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:40 am

I'd like to point out, if yos/rofl are mafia lovers, which at this point is looking more and more realistic by every hour (literally), then we will be really set in the coming days. That will buy us another lynch.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1760 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:42 am

charter wrote:I'd like to point out, if yos/rofl are mafia lovers, which at this point is looking more and more realistic by every hour (literally), then we will be really set in the coming days. That will buy us another lynch.

Well, one problem with that is that I'm town.

charter · Post Post #1761 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:43 am

Then lynching tajo will prove that and we can then lynch Serial and Pooky and whoever else you want.

charter · Post Post #1762 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:47 am

Let's try this, everyone voting for tajo, please state if there is any way you will switch to vote off of tajo. Then maybe those that do not want a no lynch (worst possible thing to do today) will switch to tajo.

No way I am moving my vote off tajo.

Kmd4390 · Post Post #1763 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:49 am

I'm not switching this close to deadline.

ekiM · Post Post #1764 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:00 am

No way.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1765 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:07 am

charter wrote:Then lynching tajo will prove that and we can then lynch Serial and Pooky and whoever else you want.

If we lynch tajo and he's town, we're probably fucked.

Charter wrote: Let's try this, everyone voting for tajo, please state if there is any way you will switch to vote off of tajo. Then maybe those that do not want a no lynch (worst possible thing to do today) will switch to tajo.

No way I am moving my vote off tajo.

Do you want a no-lynch?

If you think a no-lynch is the "worst possible thing to do today", then why would you also say there is no way you would move your vote? That dosn't make sense.

roflcopter · Post Post #1766 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:21 am

lynching tajo is dumb. what yos said.

unvote, vote: pooky

ISO · Post Post #1767 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:24 am

Deadline:

Approximately 15.5 hours from this post.

Vote Count:

7 to lynch.

PookyTheMagicalBear: 6 (iamausername, populartajo, roflcopter, Thesp, Yosarian2, zu_Faul)
populartajo: 5 (charter, ekiM, elvis_knits, Kmd4390, SerialClergyman)
iamausername: 1 (PookyTheMagicalBear)

Not Voting: 1 (VP Baltar)

VP Baltar · Post Post #1768 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:31 am

Well, let's look at this both ways. If we lynch tajo and he flips town we will have rofl, Yos and myself confirmed.

That leaves ekiM, SC, charter, EK, IAAUN, Kmd, zu Faul, and Pooky who could be scum. Let's assume one of the confirmed gets killed and we have a worst case scenario of five scum. That's a 63% chance of lynching correct, right?

Pooky flipping town doesn't confirm anyone and would leave us with a 50% chance.

The question here, for me at least, is if that extra 13% outweighs my overall feeling that Pooky has been more scummy than tajo. Then again, maybe they are both scum and it doesn't matter.

More ugh. The good news is that I definitely don't think no lynch is a good idea anymore.

elvis_knits · Post Post #1769 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:38 am

Yosarian2 wrote:
charter wrote:Then lynching tajo will prove that and we can then lynch Serial and Pooky and whoever else you want.
If we lynch tajo and he's town, we're probably fucked.

Why is this worse than mislynching someone else? There's always the possibility of mislynch, but with tajo if we mislynch we get a huge gift of a bunch of confirmed townies.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #1770 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:46 am

elvis_knits wrote:
Yosarian2 wrote:
charter wrote:Then lynching tajo will prove that and we can then lynch Serial and Pooky and whoever else you want.
If we lynch tajo and he's town, we're probably fucked.
Why is this worse than mislynching someone else? There's always the possibility of mislynch, but with tajo if we mislynch we get a huge gift of a bunch of confirmed townies.

If we mislynch anyone, we're probably fucked. Mislynching one of our 3 power roles (tajo, kmd, rofl) would be worse, though.

Mostly, I just want to lynch scum today. If we do, we should win. If we don't, we probably lose. So I don't really want to hear "mislynching X is less bad then mislynching Y" arguments today; that stuff's fine on day 1, but not here.

SerialClergyman · Post Post #1771 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:49 am

If there is a genuine struggle there for anyone, realize this:

Tajo isn't just claiming he is town, he's claiming he, charter, rofl, yos and vp are ALL town. It's
not just a question of whether you think Tajo is scum, it's a question of whether you think ANY of those people are scum.

Yos asks me if I KNOW that I'm getting lynched on a rofl flip and I'm not sure how to reply. I will protect him if Tajo is lynched and flips innocent. That's about it from this perspective.

Lynch Tajo. I can't tell who the town on that wagon is, but switch, dammit.

SerialClergyman · Post Post #1772 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:53 am

If we mislynch anyone, Tajo effectively loses his power because using it would put the town at risk. So his power, if town, is now much weaker.

If you want to lynch scum today, consider that the combined liklihood of any of the five that Tajo claim are scum is higher than the liklihood of pooky being scum.

SerialClergyman · Post Post #1773 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:55 am

Vp, in your list above you put charter in unconfirmed when he is actually confirmed on a Tajo townflip

SerialClergyman · Post Post #1774 (ISO) » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:57 am

You also put kmd in unconfirmed and with no counter, he's pretty confirmed as vig. So actually your numbers should be substantially different.