SMITE Role Madness Mafia (OVER AT LAST!)

[FourTrouble]

/confirm

[FourTrouble]

Holy fuck we drew town. FT, how about you?

Yes, I'm town! This is gonna be good.

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Yes.

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Imperium - think they're scum and I believe them.

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I wasn't serious; they're probably town based on 25. On reread, maybe Bitmap - trying too hard to look happy.

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To be fair, not much has happened. 27 bothers me more because of it's dancing-vibe (same with his confirmation); it feel like he's trying too hard.

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TSO's posts felt awkward but not alignment indicative.

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FT - Thoughts on Solar Wind?

Probably town. Excitement about the game feels genuine, and I think their initial post saying they drew town and asking if I was town isn't something F-16 would do as scum.

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Rach, any reads?

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I think town would have added punctuation!

Why?

[FourTrouble]

I'm not sure about Xombie. I agree that 41 feels fake but it didn't feel scummy fake. I also didn't think 45 was a joke; it looks like an impulsive in-the-moment response to 40 and 44, which is towny. The only thing bothering me is the punctuation bit in 54.

[FourTrouble]

45 taken alone feels like Xombie saw 40 and 41, read over TSO, saw the "hi," and then commented on it. The direct and immediate response to our potential concerns felt very town. I agree his attempt to justify it later in 54 was scummy, which is why I asked about it.

[FourTrouble]

I could be wrong about what I think was going on, so I'd rather not say until I hear more from Xombie. I'll explain later.

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What do you think about ooba? He's kinda doing the same thing he faults Xombie for doing.

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Yes, exactly. I hadn't said anything about Xombie's alignment but I asked him what I think was a pretty hard-hitting question, so anyone reading through would have known Xombie was going to come under pressure from both of us.

[FourTrouble]

I thought it was and it was certainly intended to be. I don't think there's an answer, and I think anyone who sees the question would feel that way too, so it puts pressure on Xombie not just from me but from others who end up wanting an answer to the question.

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farside, what're your thoughts so far?

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F-16, what'd you like about BRantz's post?

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Metal, what's "fishy" about F-16's town?

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Metal, what's "fishy" about F-16's tone?

Fixed.

[FourTrouble]

his tone makes him seem like he's being intentionally deceptive

Can you be more specific and concrete?

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Ft: why have you not posted in the neighborhood?

Haven't checked it yet - don't really care about it atm.

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I am.
It is 11pm and I'm still awake and playing.

This feels town.

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I agree re: farside and House. I disagree re: BRantz.

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231 feels town.

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I'd like to see more from BRantz. I agree with the point in 188 (I also had the same thought so it resonates), and I also liked his unexplained townread on House, but I didn't like the tone or content in everything else he said.

[FourTrouble]

He said Tammy can town up even as scum. This comes after claiming that Imperium are scary as scum. So, I want that quick and easy Imperium townread explained.

I've been mulling over this. I've seen him develop quick townreads like this before, so the quickness doesn't bother me. But the combination of paranoia + townread is interesting. I'm not sure if it's a town-tell or scum-tell. Part of me wants to say scum would express it differently ("I think Imperium is town but they could be scum because they're scary goood as scum"). What do you think?

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231 feels town because of how understated Metal's paranoia is. I don't think scum would have expressed it like that, so he's probably town despite the quick townread on Imperium.

[FourTrouble]

i dont remember playing with you... :0

We played together in hunter x hunter, and I've also skimmed some more recent games you were in.

[FourTrouble]

@ FT, Ffery has Metal as town. I'm coming around to it based on how much more pro-active his townhunting is compared to the scum baseline I have for him. You are probably right about the paranoia point. Which games of his did you skim?

I don't remember the exact games. I was quickly skimming his ISOs to check some surface-level things about his play.

[FourTrouble]

Vote: Ankamius

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Nah, we need votes on Ankamius. Even assuming 119 is okay (it's not), there's still been lots of stuff to talk about since the game "start," so the RVS vote, lack of scumhunting, and fluffy commentary is by far the worst, scummiest thing here.

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Bitmap's probably town.

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Implied scum motivation for complaining about lack of scumhunting is that he doesn't have to do anything, which would be scum motivation because he doesn't have to post, but the players with the biggest voice in the game are the ones doing all the posting and he's making enemies of us as a result, which accomplishes the opposite of what he would have set out to do as scum.

Ankamius is anti-town and lazy; both those make him more likely scum than town. Yes, he might alienate a couple players, but that doesn't change the analysis. Scum can still survive having an enemy or two.

[FourTrouble]

far, I had a gut suspicion of Rach during pregame but Solar says she's town, and I trust their ability to read her more than mine, so I'm deferring to that for now.

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I think town would have added punctuation!

Why?

I'd still like an answer to this. This didn't seem like a joke to me.

[FourTrouble]

Solar, can you guys explain your townread on Ankamius?

[FourTrouble]

How is he anti-town? Also, being lazy is not alignment indicative.

Not reading large portions of the game is anti-town. Not commenting on anything unless specifically asked is anti-town. Casting an RVS vote (i.e. trying to go back) when RVS is dead is anti-town. All of these suggest that Ankamius isn't scumhunting (which is anti-town) and a passive/reactionary approach (which is also anti-town). I also disagree that being lazy isn't scummy. Yes, town are sometimes lazy too (and I'm at fault for this more than anyone), but in general scum are lazy more often than town, so it increases the odd that someone is scum.

[FourTrouble]

@FourTrouble: What do you think of Xombie's reaction to MS's "gambit"?

It looked fine to me. Awkward but not a major concern. I think if someone says they have a guilty on you, and you're unsure whether it's a gambit, you're gonna react awkwardly even if you're town, so it's not very telling.

[FourTrouble]

He said he didn't want to read any of the pre-game talk since the game hasn't started which is understandable. Passive/reactionary is a playstyle, which is not alignment-indicative unless paired with meta. Otherwise, I understand where you're coming from.

Just because something is "understandable" or a "playstyle" doesn't mean it's not anti-town.

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Bitmap, why is Metal still your top suspect (or if he isn't, who is and why aren't you voting them)?

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vezok, I agree that spam is anti-town but so is what Ankamius is doing; the two aren't mutually exclusive. Have you read the game? Most of this thread isn't "bullshit" - there's a lot of stuff to analyze here. What're your thoughts?

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Why rail hard against him as opposed to vezok, who is more antitown and lazier?

Context. I voted Ankamius when vezok was a nonentity. My attention is on vezok now.

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Vote: vezok

I'll come back to Ankamius later.

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Ankamius, what do you think of vezok?

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If his neighborhood is one that was outed, he's nothing but a distraction for right now.

If not, then some pressure is warranted just to get thoughts out, but nothing makes me want him dead currently.

I don't follow. What does outing his neighborhood have to do with anything?

[FourTrouble]

Tiphaine, how is vezok "town as fuck"?

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The analysis in 484 feels very superficial/fake.

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Solar, I agree completely, especially when you add in the gut scumread on House. Tiphaine's wording and emotion also feels fake. Even if you're scummy, you're not "downright terrible," the buddying doesn't deserve a "goddamned" description, vezok isn't "town as fuck" even if he's town, and the questions I asked weren't "random" or "unconnected."

[FourTrouble]

Tiphaine, how is vezok "town as fuck"?

Tiphaine, how is this question random or unconnected?

[FourTrouble]

Tiphaine, that doesn't answer my question. How is the vezok question (and my other questions) "random" and "unconnected"? Have you looked at the context in which the questions were asked? Have you looked at how the questions were answered? Have you looked at what I did in response to those answers?

[FourTrouble]

FT my question becomes how do you distinguish between vezok, Ank, and blonde (who's only post in the game is 424)? Are they all scum? What makes any of them more scummy than any other?

You distinguish as best you can. Ankamius engaged the game when questioned; vezok didn't.

[FourTrouble]

Town would know it's a lie and scream scum.

I disagree strongly with this. The specific circumstances and player matters.

[FourTrouble]

BUT when Nacho does comment on his reads (something he clearly wanted) and agrees with the reads basically but has different strengths of those reads, it's cause for him to second guess his town read of us? I was surprised that literally noone else besides Tiphaine Death saw the problem with this post. (I'm not sure what I think of Tiphaine Death, his entrance post is kind of weird and his reasoning for thinking one of us is kinda eh when he just got done playing a game with us - Final Fantasy - and the way we interacted isn't completely different from that game and he didn't mention it at all, it's odd it's a problem for him here. But I also didn't like Falcon pointing out that HE DID NOT BUDDY US BECAUSE HE DEMANDED WE TOWN OURSELVES because it just feels like more posturing.

I understand (and agree to some extent) that 453 doesn't seem to follow from Nacho's comments, but I strongly disagree with Tiphaine that it's "buddying." I also don't understand what you mean by "posturing" - can you clarify that?

He's basically warning Nacho that if Nacho doesn't agree with him 100% or if he thinks a read of his is weird, that he's prepared to take back his town read of us. Which is way way way more likely to come from Falcon scum. In Serum and Steel, every time our interaction being off and him not seeming town from it, he turned it around on me. It was always my fault for our interaction not being the same. When I tried to make sense of his reads and offer my own, he shut me down and turned it around on me. And then when I finally realized he was, in fact, scum and started pushing him, he omgus'd me harder than fuck and then drowned the game in a huge distraction designed to keep me from figuring out the game and getting an adequate push on him.

You make some good points that definitely make me want to understand where 453 came from, but I think this is pushing that reading too far. I haven't read Serum and Steel so I might be wrong but I don't (and can't) see F-16 creating a dichotomy where Nacho has to agree with him 100% or Nacho's scum. I see how you get that from 453 but I think you're reading more into that then there is.

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Tammy, what're your thoughts on Tiphaine? I feel like 100% of what he said is fake.

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I'm just a bit bothered that TD says something and you follow up with issues after.

What's concerning about that? Tammy's analysis doesn't seem fake.

[FourTrouble]

I'm very confident that F-16 is town.

Vote Tiphaine

I hate to take pressure off vezok but this needs to happen. Still waiting for a response to my question.

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Solar, Imperium, help me pressure TD.

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Yeah, this needs to die now. VOTE: MetalSonic

Why?

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Xombie, why joke about TSO in 45? F-16 asked me a serious question. I gave a serious answer. 45 was a response to that interaction, right? Why continue joking at that point? How do you reconcile your actions with 352?

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Metal, why'd you townread beast?

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I'm concerned re: Metal. I liked his vote for TSO (564 mirrors what I was thinking) and his carefree, impulsive reaction to 565, but I'm worried about his townread on beast. beast only had two posts (558 where he sheeps me, and 565 where he defends TSO), and neither post was enough for a strong townread. Yet Metal's reasoning - "beast is town, his strong townread on TSO isn't justified, so they must be masons" - assumes beast is town. I suppose Metal might have townread beast based on 558/565, but the strength of the read feels "informed." I also wonder if this is why Tiphaine voted Metal, though I doubt it given Tiphaine's surface level analysis.

[FourTrouble]

Metal Sonics vote sequence makes no sense as town. He was super convinced TSO was scum, then beast says he's wrong, and he immediately assumed beast was masons with TSO? What kind of fucked up faulty logic is that?

The logic makes sense if you assume beast is town.

[FourTrouble]

TD's entrance also felt town to me.

What felt town about it?

[FourTrouble]

Re: Xombie's reaction - I disagree that it's scummy. 381's disbelief is a plausible town reaction; the follow-up (387) looks like Xombie has resigned himself to being lynhced and wants to ensure Metal doesn't get away the gambit; and the delayed vote (395) could have come from a delayed realization that Metal can be lynched (instead of resigning himself to dying). I'm not saying this makes Xombie town, just that it's a plausible town reaction to the gambit. I'm still developing my read on Xombie; for now I prefer voting elsewhere.

[FourTrouble]

F-16, I can't read your post on TD right now - will respond tomorrow.

[FourTrouble]

I believe I have a TD rule to enforce:
If TD starts to godawful posting, town so bear with it.

So then how do you distinguish bad scum posting from bad town posting?

[FourTrouble]

You put TD in your scumpile but you said that his awful posting was town. Elaborate on this.

Was going to ask the same thing.

[FourTrouble]

764 feels town.

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Ffery, can you explain your town read on TD? What am I missing there?

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I am very suspicious of beast and TSO. TSO says they aren't masons so wtf is beast doing. But we have neighborhoods so he could have had claimed or did something townie there

Why'd you jump to the conclusion earlier that they're masons?

[FourTrouble]

Ffery, can you explain your town read on TD? What am I missing there?

There's a trajectory to my read. I'm not sure how much of it is in the thread vs in the neighborhood, so I'm going to summarize it in this post. I went into the game thinking there's a decent chance of scum in our neighborhood purely based on the neighborhood size, and thinking that scum have to be scattered around here and there in the pantheons. Bookitty and Imperium both towned it up pretty hard before TD had posted any content at all. So by the time he entered the game thread and neighborhood, I was predisposed to think he might be scum. His entrance wasn't quite as one-dimensional as I associate with him as scum (based on the xenoblade theme game where we were on a scum team together). So, I backed off to see what he'd do.

There was a kerfuffle between our slot and Imperium-tammy in the game thread which moved to the neighborhood and turned into a huge wall exchange there. TD did something at that point which to me is completely antithetical to scum. He decided the argument was town v town rather than subtly or blatantly encouraging the acrimony onward, or even just ignoring it and letting it take its potentially lengthy course.

This made a huge impression on me, because I thought that our neighborhood was going to be useless while things were so hostile and confused.

Scum could do that, and sophisticated scum probably would do that, but sophisticated is not my impression of TD's scum game.

Seeing it in real time, it looked like a genuine read/reaction to me.

Right now, I feel it's likely that our neighborhood is all town.

Okay. I see what you're saying. His reevaluation has hints of town. I don't see any support for his lynch so I'm willing to wait on this. Who do you want to lynch? One of the inactives?

[FourTrouble]

I believe I have a TD rule to enforce:
If TD starts to godawful posting, town so bear with it.

So dangit, looks like I'm a bit...well, stuck.
'Cause, well...*points to above*
...Following the rule......

I don't like this. Especially given mastin's quick turn.

[FourTrouble]

Bad scum? Heck no.

...And there's your answer.

I don't like this answer either. I get the feeling mastin's not trying to figure TD's alignment out (i.e. her read is fake).

[FourTrouble]

hello

VOTE: solar wind

I'm worried about this slot as well. Replacing into a game to then not play feels more like scum than town.

[FourTrouble]

Bad scum? Heck no.

...And there's your answer.

I don't like this answer either. I get the feeling mastin's not trying to figure TD's alignment out (i.e. her read is fake).

That's just Mastin though. Remember Tales of you?

Yes, I remember - unfortunately. I'm not sure on her alignment yet; just commenting on things bothering me. The biggest thing is that mastin dropped massive town-tells in Sabotage, so I'm not convinced she's as hard to read as she was back then. Of course, her meta is similar on a superficial level, but this feels different.

[FourTrouble]

Vote: mantis

[FourTrouble]

farside's a strong townread; won't be lynching there.

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I don't want to say too much on AP yet because I don't have time to read his posts carefully, and I don't know his baseline as town/scum. I liked his suspicion of Metal (I think that's something that town reading through the game would plausibly conclude), but then the analysis (1060) sucked. His read on farside also sucked, and it felt opportunistic coming after Imperium's sniping post. I though the not wanting to be mislynched post was towny; tone felt genuine. As for the meta stuff you brought up re: Tales, I skimmed it but don't have time to really understand the points you're making at the moment. I'll get back to you on that. I'm willing to sheep you guys if you're sure he's scum.

[FourTrouble]

I think highest chances of lynching scum is Mantis; would like to see more votes there.

[FourTrouble]

Exactly my problem. She replaces into the game, votes Solar, and then disappears? I feel like someone who replaces in, makes a single post, makes no attempt to catch-up, and says nothing useful, is probably scum. Part of it is also process of elimination (i.e. most of the players posting are probably town, so there's definitely scum among the inactives). I suspect a few others (e.g. TD) but they don't seem to be on the table, and some of the other folks I'm watching (e.g. mastin, AP) are folks I'd like more time to read before lynching.

[FourTrouble]

Fuck this game. If you need me, I'll be active lurking.

I think we have enough of that already in this game. In some cases minus the active. :/

It took a lot of will on my end to get myself involved in this game and I've gotten nothing but shotdown since I've been here. People can live without me.

Also tell F16 to shut the fuck up about Tales already. For someone who cares about "the whole picture" he sure can't stop talking about that one game.

I threw her a fairly big bone and she is going around ignoring my reads and saying she has nothing on me. As far as I care, she is. Now I'll admit I've done similarly before, but

1) this isn't about mastin specifically
2) She owed me something after previously implying that me being away was scummy

This sequence is incredibly scummy.

[FourTrouble]

The "plural" point is super nitpicky. I've phrased things similarly as town before; don't think it cuts either way.

[FourTrouble]

FourTrouble is not fooling me with his prim and polished posts. I don't feel a real connection with what he's saying - I should say, HOW he's saying it.

What's wrong with the "how"? I didn't realize my posts are prim/polished (most are done with no editing, on my phone, while taking the bus to and from school - this one included).

[FourTrouble]

Sweet. Ceph, if you are town, obvtown up your slot quickly and we'll steamroll the scum.

I've only ever played with scum Ceph; I hope he's town.

[FourTrouble]

So I am having a hard time getting invested in my catch up for this game. Between that and school being a bit more demanding than I expected so far I think it is probably best for everyone if I replace out.

@Mod: Please replace me. Sorry Dram.

Sorry everybody. This game deserves more time and investment than I can give it right now.

This replace out feels town.

[FourTrouble]

Vote Tiphaine

I'm gonna give Ceph a chance to catch up, but I'm pretty sure he's scum.

[FourTrouble]

Why does it feel necessarily town? I can plausibly see scum thinking like that.

Not necessarily town; probably. I think there's much less time investmest required as scum - you can lurk, skim, and fake some analysis, amd you'll get by. Town, on the other hand, are gonna need to reread and reread; scum aren't. It looks to me like he was trying to catch up and didn't have anything to contribute, was struggling to develop reads, and didn't have the time to parse everything carefully. Scum would have just faked some easy posts and kept lurking.

[FourTrouble]

For example, I was rereading, trying to figure out where I want my vote, and I caught something that increased my scumread on Tiphaine, and also which suggests mantis was his partner. So I'm feeling really good about voting both those guys.

[FourTrouble]

So I am having a hard time getting invested in my catch up for this game. Between that and school being a bit more demanding than I expected so far I think it is probably best for everyone if I replace out.

@Mod: Please replace me. Sorry Dram.

Sorry everybody. This game deserves more time and investment than I can give it right now.

Also, I tend to think a struggle to get invested in the game isn't a reason to replace out as scum; it's more just inherent.

[FourTrouble]

This post?

"I don't understand the lurker hate, but this guy, this guy over here, I don't like the way he be lurking and talking about it."

Mantis Scum=AP Scum.

Not just this.

[FourTrouble]

Take a look at how Tiphaine reacts to the growing pressure on mantis and ace.

[FourTrouble]

Any read that isn't "null" on that slot is shitty.

I strongly disagree with this.

[FourTrouble]

Okay, this is the sequence that bothers me.

"I don't understand the lurker hate, but this guy, this guy over here, I don't like the way he be lurking and talking about it."

Mantis Scum=AP Scum.

First, TD attacks AP for the double standard (i.e. defending Mantis but voting Ace). But the phrasing is off; it should say "if AP is scum, Mantis is scum." Instead, TD phrases it as "if Mantis is scum, AP is scum." It looks like TD supports lynching Mantis (town aren't looking for these associations unless you already suspect the players), or at the least predicts a potential lynch on Mantis (and is setting up a chain lynch). What bothers me most is that he doesn't take a position on Mantis; his attack is directed solely at AP. Then, of course, pressure starts mounting on Mantis:

VOTE: mantis

While this is happening, TD still takes no position on Mantis, and there are a few posts defending mastin (i.e. a mastin lynch is very unlikely at this point). TD, if town, wouldn't drop his mastin vote just because it's unlikely to go anywhere (especially given TD showing that he doesn't care about voting players who are widely read as town). But TD, as scum, would be looking for a new place to place his vote, as keeping his vote on mastin isn't furthering any scum objective, especially if we assume Mantis is scum and with the growing pressure on Mantis. Then, farside posts 1106 and provides the perfect cover for scum to vote Ace. Tiphaine immediately jumps on that:

VOTE: theaceofspades

The irony of this post is that TD was just attacking AP for voting Ace. Yet now that pressure has grown on Mantis, and that pressure has grown on Ace, and TD has the option of making a choice between Ace and Mantis, TD votes Ace. What especially bothers me is that 1114 isn't really scummy, but TD says it's so scummy that he doesn't even need to explain his vote. Which reminds me of TD's read on Vezok (the certainty doesn't match the game). Of course, his explanation (which comes later and look contrived) --

1114 implies lack of reading/attention paid to the game, while looking at something specifically that takes an awful lot of reading/attention to find. "I don't see how he can have those opinions," in conjunction with low attention paid, is a scum claim.

-- shows that TD's read on Ace is based on stuff that applies to a bunch of players (not reading the game carefully, but still commenting on certain things), so his vote isn't nearly as self-evident as TD claimed.

[FourTrouble]

Scum have a mental map of their current *reads* as it appears on thread at any time. It feels like you're trying to preempt any 'Why did you forget about mantis\vezo?' statements even before someone asks.

Where does Vezok come into this?

[FourTrouble]

Scum have a mental map of their current *reads* as it appears on thread at any time.

Also, what you're referring to are votes, not reads; I'm pretty sure most townies have (or at least should have) an idea who they're voting at any given time.

[FourTrouble]

It's not just about protecting Mantis. There's also the bizarre attack on AP where TD doesn't take a position re: Mantis, yet phrases AP's association to Mantis as if he's setting up a chain lynch on AP (which implies that Mantis is scum). That, combined with his vote on Ace, is exactly the pattern of behavior I'd expect from scum defending a partner.

[FourTrouble]

According to your logic, I'm scum because I simply can't get interested in the game but don't replace out of games (hence my "easy posts & lurking").

No. Just because something's a town-tell doesn't mean the opposite is a scum-tell.

[FourTrouble]

Just because scum do something doesn't mean it's a scum-tell; town might be just as likely to do it too.

[FourTrouble]

Backpedal harder. If I was playing solo I'd already be voting you.

I literally lol'd at this. I don't follow how you're getting this from what I said.

[FourTrouble]

I think this is making far too many assumptions to be a valid point. First and obviously, we don't know Mantis's alignment here and I really don't get why people think not posting is a tell for someone. That's really icky and trust telly if thats actually accurate. But ya, not really going to buy that. Now you are also assuming Ace is town, which I don't really agree with either :S. Why are you townreading Ace? And why would scum necessarily be trying actively to have their vote on a ML wagon? I get that in theory its good practive objectively to do that, but in reality I don't find that most people think that way. Most people as scum are just trying to look out for themselves and avoid getting lynched. So, ya. I've liked a lot of your posts, but this one is really reaching.

You're largely missing the point of my analysis. What I'm saying is that TD's interpretation of your vote for Ace, and then his follow up actions, suggest that TD is preinclined to read Mantis as scum, but isn't scumreading Mantia, and in fact is defending him. The preinclination is scummy in the absence of a scumread because it suggests TD is not acting on knowledge he has (and knowledge he shouldn't have). The defense is also scummy because it does the above while also defending the guy he should be scumreading, based on his prior posts. That's the kind of inconsistency ("pattern of behavior") that I think comes from scum.

Asking why scum would put their vote on a ML misframes the issue; scum do that all the time. The right question is whether TD specifically would do that in the above circumstances. I think he would, based on what I've seen so far (attacking Solar, Imperium, and me in his first post while defending Vezok suggests he'd vote town (and yes, that assumes Solar and Imperium are town, and while I can't speak to Imperium with absolute certainty, I'm trust tell level - 99% - on F-16)). As for a scum motive to mislynch Ace, there's more than one, so I don't understand why you think scum wouldn't vote there (assuming Ace is town). Do scum only vote for other scum? Cause that's what you're suggesting, and that's 100% wrong. You're right that scum are looking out for themselves, but they're also trying to win, and that means mislynching town at some point on the game. What I think most scum are trying to do is figure out who to lynch, at what point, and Ace (especially after farside's post) was a great place to put your vote as scum. I think TD had fucked up already by attacking your vote on Ace, but objectively I don't think he would realize that.

[FourTrouble]

These are both townposting and, surprisingly, I find myself agreeing with them. I'm agreeing with FourTrouble guys, I think we've entered the twilight zone.

Why is agreeing with me surprising?

[FourTrouble]

F-16, I think AP's recent posts are town.

[FourTrouble]

Ooba's town, too.

[FourTrouble]

Why? I would love an answer that involved meta.

Answer that involves meta: F-16's emotion and timing.

[FourTrouble]

Why? I would love an answer that involved meta.

Answer that involves meta: F-16's emotion and timing.

I'm sure you can guess that I'd like more than this. He was plenty emotional in S&S.

I haven't read that game so my read isn't based on that. When I say emotion, what I mean is, first that F-16 is a very emotional player, and second, because of that F-16 has certain emotional characteristics that I don't think he'd ever replicate as scum without having them pointed out by someone else, because they're so understated and genuine and thus go unnoticed. For example, in Mafia on the air, there was a point where Tammy said F-16 would really hate to mislynch me -- that emotion was 100% genuine town emotion, because it's based on F-16 mislynching me a lot (like almost every game we played for over a year until more recently). That kind of emotion also lines up with F-16's feeling bad about mislynching, which is of course null, but it was more particular in my case, so it needed expression, and that the particukarity of the enotion is what made it so understated yet genuine. There wasn't any manipulation involved, which is typically the case with the expression of scum emotions.

There are a few similar moments in this game. F-16's first post, saying "holy fuck we drew town" and then asking if I was town is one of them. Of course, any scum can fake that but I know F-16 had just played with me as scum on a different site, and it kinda sucked because we both prefer playing with each other as town, and it sucks having to deceive one another, so that felt like a genuine emotion that needed expression in relation to a recent game we played. His follow up, wanting to immediately start scumhunting before the game has started just adds to that; you could telll F-16 was excited to play this game, and that's not something he'd feel as scum (might express it, to be sure, but his approach felt genuine). Admittedly, much of this is intuition at this point, but I've played a lot of games with F-16 so it's hard to explain.

The other thing here was F-16's response to Tammy's concerns earlier, starting in 532. F-16's town emotion is on full display. I'll explain that later tonight when I get home if you want; at the moment too busy to reread and explain those posts in-depth.

[FourTrouble]

That was me trying to figure out his alignment.

[FourTrouble]

I have no clue if Ceph is town or scum at this point. I believe his posting was genuine though. So, if he's town, he's telling the truth and if he's scum, he's telling the truth.

I'm not sure about a few things. I find his surprise re: agreeing with me a bit off; it might be genuine, not sure, but it also feels manipulative from my point of view, since I've never player with town Ceph and he knows that. How can you be surprised about agreeing with someone if you've never played with them as town, and the last game you played with the guy, the guy spent most of it correctly scumreading you? So, it feels like he's explicitly drawing attention to the idea that he's reading the game from a different perspective than usual, because "normally" he disagrees. Of course, since he agrees, it must be because he's town.. Which is exactly what he pointed out in his answer to my question (this might be unfair of me since I asked the question to see if he'd draw attention to that). Whatever the case, I think if Ceph's scum it's exactly the kind of calculated manipulation I observed in Nati's game.

[FourTrouble]

Far, I think your point about the timing of Ace's suspicion on AP is good, but I don't think that the rest of your points are very telling, and it's not enough alone. I can follow some thought process from him, even if it sucks, and his tone feels town, so I don't want to lynch there today. What do you think of TD and Ceph?

[FourTrouble]

OK, caught up now. I'm a bit dismayed to find MetalSonic is removed from today because I'm reading him as scum now. In our hood he really wants all of us to be town and then decides we are all town. That strikes me as someone who is scum that wants to get on the hood's good side. Here in the game thread his post progression reads more scummy as the pages go by. Voting for him will have to wait until day 2 though.

Okay. Any other thoughts? Who do you want to lynch Today?

[FourTrouble]

FT, Could you link to this game please?

Yes, I can. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=59051. Also take a look at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=59052.

You don't mean Mafia on the Air do you? That's a pretty bad example of what I'm capable of.

Yes, that is a pretty bad example of what you're capable of. Tales is a better example; I thought you were town there. But your overall approach -- what I'm calling "calculated manipulation" but really just means you drop lots of fake, understated town-tells, plus a bunch of apparently genuine emotions -- is the same in all the games I've read.

[FourTrouble]

Ffery, I agree with your strong town list. I'd add ooba, farside, and iHouse to it. What did you think of my analysis re: TD? Also, I agree with this:

18. The Mask - this is a pretty null read. I feel like the abrasiveness is an over the top affectation, and there's very little meat beyond that in his iso.

I've been trying to get a read on Mask since he made his first appearance. There isn't much of a long-term scum strategy behind insulting everyone, so that feels more towny than scummy. But his emotion and content absolutely feels empty. As far as I can tell, he's scumreading me based on my style, so it's almost like he's setting up a dichotomy between his mode of communication (over-the-top emotion) and mine (understated emotion). Or, for example, he says my posts are "polished/prim," which I suppose means he thinks I'm putting effort into the game. He's not putting effort into the game, apparently hates everyone and hates reading through the game, so again he's setting up a dichotomy between my play and his. I dunno if that's a scum-tell (i.e. a very mechanical approach to "scumhunting" draped in an over-the-top expression of emotion definitely rings scummy), or if it just reflects a shitty townie's "FT's style is opposite mine, he must be scum"-style of scumhunting.

11. PeregrineV - I feel like pere always winds up here on day 1 due to heavy-duty lurking. It seems like even heavier duty than normal, though, with very little content

6. Beastcharizard - reading his iso, it's all posturing with no reasoning whatsoever about his stances. I could say the same about Mask, but in Mask's case I don't have any experiential meta to say this is off his usual town play. In beast's case I do.

Re: Pere -- I'm not lynching him Today. I think he's one of the easier players to read when he starts posting more (at least in my experience), so I'd rather wait on this.

Re: Beast -- I agree. His townread on TSO and vote on iHouse suck, especially in the absence of any other substantive content or vote. I'd be willing to vote there.

[FourTrouble]

What was towny about his last few posts? I don't follow that.

[FourTrouble]

Fourtrouble seems to be just typing what he thinks others want him to type.

What makes you say this?

His #140 bothers me too. Solar wind inquires on something FourTrouble says and FT completelt backtracks and says "I could be wrong about what I think is going on". Then there's something he wants to explain later. Will keep an eye out for that.

But it turns out I was right about what was going on!

237, 4T says "this post is town" for the third time in a row without any other comment

I get the feeling you think this is scummy; I can assure you it's not. I think there's pros and cons to unexplained reads/votes, just like there's pros and cons to total transparency re: everything you do. Of course, if someone important asks, or if a townread's under some pressure, I'll probably explain.

Why do you like an unexpained read

I think the judgment call on what stuff requires analysis/explanation and what stuff is self-evident points to an uninformed perspective on the game.

[FourTrouble]

1) FourTrouble - Strongest townread for me and it is partly meta-based as I think he's playing beyond the level he's capable of as scum. The points against him I've read so far (one-liners, questions going nowhere) are all stuff that's either the core of his towngame or being misinterpreted.

I think you underestimate what I'm "capable" of; the difference is I don't give any fucks as scum (but I think I could be good at scum if this weren't just a game and I cared more).

10) TiphaineDeath - While his early posts felt ridiculously fake and even his later posts feel somewhat over the top, the way he pursues scumreads with confidence that he's right feels town such as in Post 614. I also liked how he used the neighborhood to develop his reads further on us and Imperium. His initial push on my Ank read is something I can plausibly see coming from town. His overall ISO comes across as incredibly jumpy and all over the place which actually explains FT's case on him quite well. His flip-flop on us, Imperium, Ceph, and FT are all whimsical and his memory in general seems to be short term. For instance, calling Ceph town in Post 1421 to voting him in Post 1601, and abandoning his FT scumread for seemingly no reason. So, I disagree with FT on his Ace vote being scummy after he chained Mantis and AP together as it feels like impulsive jumping around.

I strongly disagree with your analysis here. However you spin it, his bizarre attack on AP (phrasing included) is extremely scummy, and the jump on Ace was extremely opportunistic. And confidence in reads isn't inherently a town-tell, so that's not really the massive town-tell you're saying it is.

21) Cephrir - Easily my strongest scumread. I can sort of see why people are townreading him but because of the walls and analysis but nothing he has done this game is town-motivated and I'll outline my case on him in a separate post.

22) Mastin2 - Mastin is one of the players I find incredibly hard to read due to the tendency of being manipulative as town. But I haven't found the town markers from Tales/Quickness/Serum and Steel here. His read on AP in Post 687 felt hesitant, weak, and ambiguous. The reads in Post 736 don't resonate as much as I've come to expect Mastin-reads to resonate. Mastin's Rach-read quite frankly sucks. Rach has been incredibly town and it feels more like she's setting up Rach to be lynched down the road when Rach's defended have been nightkilled. The AP townread in Post 1167 is weak as well and doesn't have the passion that town-Mastin tends to have when sorting AP. Saying the AceOfSpades wagon had a steady build feels like we're not reading the same game. TheAceOfSpades wagon was a series of votes with little explanation on an easy target and seems like a designated D1 mislynch. Mastin's overall choices of targets and how she went about developing them don't feel natural at all.

I agree with these reads.

[FourTrouble]

VOTE: 4T

Should die today

Why?

[FourTrouble]

Vote: Ceph

I'll have more to say about this when I get home. I'm also willing to lynch TD (will say more about this too). AP's probably town; I don't want to lynch there today. Mastin feels like scum but like I said earlier, I'd rather wait on that.

@ooba - yes, I haven't forgot about TD; it's because I think he's scum. Yea, I've been inactive the past couple days - I have a very lively (read: busy) weekend and spent most of today catching up on school. I'm getting yo the game as best I can.

@anyone who is voting me or suspects me: You do not know me, at all. I recommend reading my games (I'm not gonna tell you my meta cause last time I did that people just ignored it). Notice that every single player who has played with me before is townreading me (Solar, Imperium, Ceph, farside, etc.). If that's not enough to make you think twice, consider -- F-16 was in the first game of mafia I ever played, has played 40+ games with me, understands how I think about the game, and has hydra'd with me a few times. He's also extremely good at meta analysis. So you'd be wise to defer to his read on me, especially given it's strength. I understand my playstyle apparently comes off as scummy in the current mafiascum meta, but this is just how I play. Anyway, I felt the need to point this out because I was just mislynched in my last game here and I don't want that that to happen again. But it's on you guys to do some research, inform yourselves on my meta, or if you're not gonna do that, then defer to players who know. Okay. That's all I'm saying in my defense the rest of the game because I really hate wasting my time on this shit; I'll probably be night-killed soonish so this shouldn't be a problem later.

[FourTrouble]

Lol Ceph.

[FourTrouble]

Ceph fucked up in two key ways. First, Ceph's "surprise" re: agreeing with me and subsequent townread. F-16 points this out but it needs elaboration and emphasis because it's Ceph's biggest scum-tell. This post will focus on that first scum-tell. The second issue is Ceph's response to F-16's case. I disagree with those saying it's towny; it's anything but. I'll post about that tomorrow morning (falling asleep right now but wanted to get to this tonight).

1. 1265, specifically Ceph's surprise at agreeing with me, is fake. Ceph's only substantive experience with me was in Mafia on the Air. I was town; Ceph was scum. I spent the vast majority of D1 (I died N1) pushing a lynch on Ceph. If you're scum, and X scumreads you, you can't disagree with X; X is right and part of what makes you scum is the fact that you know X is right. So Ceph's "surprise" can't come from Mafia on the Air. The only other game I played with Ceph was Tales, and in that game, I didn't post enough for Ceph to disagree with me. So Ceph's "surprise" also can't come from Tales.

2. 1350 is also fake and manipulative:

I thought you might turn out to be the kind of player I just tend to butt heads with all the time. But maybe I just needed to be town.

Note that Ceph has never had any reason to think we'd butt heads if we were both town. Ceph's only experience with me has been as scum. Also note the understated manipulation: "But maybe I just needed to be town."

3. Ceph's townread on me doesn't square with Ceph's "surprise." If Ceph's "surprise" were real, then he'd suspect me for not playing the way he's seen me play in the past. Deviations from the norm are scummy, not towny; that's the entire basis of any meta analysis. But instead of scumreading me, Ceph townreads me, not despite his "surprise," but precisely because of his "surprise." This suggests (a) Ceph's "surprise" is fake, and therefore (b) Ceph's townread was tactical rather than genuine. There's another point here, too: in Mafia on the Air, I quickly caught Ceph, and Ceph spent the majority of D1 there trying to push my lynch. So going forward, scum Ceph is preinclined to get me on his good side lest I push him again; that explains why he's buddying me so hard. Finally, note that his play here is a response to the failure of a former strategy: in Mafia on the Air, Ceph tried to push my lynch and failed. He'd doing the exact opposite here (buddying me hardcore) and based on his fake "surpise," it's much more likely to be a scum adaptation (something Ceph is known for) than Ceph's town play.

[FourTrouble]

@ FT, are you arguing that TD and Ceph are partnered together?

Yes, it makes the most sense. TD's bizarre attack on AP/Mantis, his vote for Ace, his weak push on Ceph over a stupid nitpikcy point, then the moment Ceph gets real pressure, switches his vote to you? Not to mention the other issues I have with TD. I'm very confident in both these reads.

[FourTrouble]

@everyone:

This --

I have observed you playing town in Mafia on the Air. This has nothing to do with what you were doing, so much as how you were doing it. I observed that your style is completely counter to mine. I thought I could mislynch you because your town play looked unlike my picture of how a townie plays. Therefore, I am surprised when I agree with you.

-- is scum. In Mafia on the Air, Ceph didn't push my lynch because I thought differently. If anything, it was the exact opposite: I repeated something in the game that had been said by Ceph's hydra partner in a neighborhood PM, and then Ceph proceeded to push my lynch under the theory that I was stealing their thoughts and analysis. The truth is that I hadn't looked at the neighborhood PM so I had no idea what was said there. But Ceph saying my thinking was counterintuitive and that that's why he pushed my lynch is pure bullshit.

[FourTrouble]

Far, please look at my case on Ceph. Look at the stuff F-16 cited from other games showing what he's capable of faking as scum. How is this not convincing you that he's scum here?

[FourTrouble]

I'm not lynching ceph day 1 when we have like 4 heavy lurkers.

Fuck your egos and lynch scum not inflate your self worth.

Lack of posts isn't a scum-tell by itself, and you kinda fall into the lurker category, so I'm not sure how you can make this argument with a straight-face. Please look at my case on Ceph.

[FourTrouble]

Let's stick on Ceph. I think we can get others to understand.

[FourTrouble]

Imperium, it was actually Ceph who first brought it up in the game -- Mara was just more vocal in general but that was the basis of both their pushes.

[FourTrouble]

TD, why'd you move your vote off Ceph and onto Solar? You were saying Ceph was scum. Solar was too. Explain your logic there.

[FourTrouble]

Also, what're your thoughts on my Ceph case?

[FourTrouble]

@ FT, did you observe Ceph's crumbs so far? (Don't out it if you have). I have a decent idea what it is. I feel like his role is the kind of role we used to play with on DDO a while ago but soon stopped using it lately as it was redundant with a more straightforward role especially with the way Ceph is using it. I will say that the role is fairly uncommon on mafiascum. Let me know how that affects your read on him.

I've definitely noticed.

[FourTrouble]

Adding onto that, I'd like to note that I don't care how many town-tells Ceph drops in the game because he's quite good and can fake town-tells and they don't mean he's town. The specific point I brought up in my case isn't something town would ever do (i.e. fake an emotion, lie about their experience in a previous game to justify that emotion, and develop a townread that's at odds with that emotion, which further shows that the emotion was fake and the townread is tactical). That alone is enough to lynch Ceph, regardless how many town-tells he drops.

The only way I buy someone townreading Ceph is if they think he's telling the truth about his experience in Mafia on the Air. And yes, it's "possible" that Ceph's telling the truth. But it's so unlikely when you take into account the circumstances in that game.

[FourTrouble]

Let me know how that affects your read on him.

I've seen scum fake-claim it many times, so it doesn't change anything.

[FourTrouble]

Hey guys, having problems irl, don't want it to spill over in to game, but don't REALLY have time to post right now. I've looked terrible this game and this move is not going to help. I think cephrir is scum UNVOTE: VOTE: cephrir I'll try to explain this when I get back, promise.

1579+1580=cephrir scum. He responds to my same post in two different, both derogatory ways. He planned and wanted to respond and make sure I got shut down and lumped in as scum with ace, he also forgot he had already done so, not town play. See, ace has been incredibly scummy, but he can't be scum as long is cephrir is unless we are in multiball, so cephrir is the lynch.

I do not like this interaction Sam-I-Am. Note to self, Stick-With-Your-Gut, and logic and everyone else be damned. VOTE: Solar Wind

Ceph is almost certainly town at this point.

Please explain the change on opinion re: Ceph and the vote on Solar.

[FourTrouble]

F-16, who are we lynching?

[FourTrouble]

FT, no idea. Who's on your shortlist?

I'd lynch Ceph but there's no support for that. I'm a few pages behind so I don't have thoughts on recent developments. TD still looks scummy to me.

[FourTrouble]

I won't lynch Solar, Imperium, ooba, farside, or House. I'm willing to hear cases on others.

[FourTrouble]

If I had to guess a scum-team, I'd say Ceph, TD, mastin, and some lurkers.

[FourTrouble]

Do you have a townread on AP now?

What's your read on Farside?

AP had some posts that gave me a strong town vibe, so he's not a scumread but not a particularly strong town read either.

Farside is strong town.

[FourTrouble]

Fuck, just remembered deadline is coming up. I'm super drunk and about to head to another bar - who should I vote for? I can't catch up right now, sorry guys.

[FourTrouble]

Pls hold off L-1 for now so we can have that convo with FT.

What convo? I have like 5 minutes. What do you want to know?

[FourTrouble]

Ft: why have you not posted in the neighborhood?

Metal: don't be stupid this game.

<3

farside i hope you are town

I am.
It is 11pm and I'm still awake and playing.

This is super town.

I don't have time to go in-depth but I think this + farside's push on Ace/Rach are enough to clear her (or him?). The pushes had a huge town vibe to them; they're just super genuine and the conviction and tunneling feels extremely town.

[FourTrouble]

Just trust me on farside for Today. Do you want my vote somewhere? I got to go. People are bitching at me.

[FourTrouble]

Vote: Beast

Cause F-16 says so (is that F-16? I can't tell) and I prefer this to AP anyway, cause AP gave me some town vibes.

Good luck figuring out a lynch. Sorry I'm not around guys.

[FourTrouble]

Vote mastin

[FourTrouble]

Vote mastin

FT, I specifically ISO'd you yesterday during the break and came up with 'most prob town' - please post more

I could say the same about you.

[FourTrouble]

FourTrouble, care to explain your mastin vote?

As you may have noticed, no, I don't care to. Or at least not yet.

[FourTrouble]

That reminds me before I got massively distracted. Yeah, Farside probably is scum. I trusted FT D1 but I'm hoping he has a better explanation for his townread.

Why is farside probably scum?

[FourTrouble]

Ffery thought she was scum because of her lack of followup on a question about hydras and there being no hydras in her neighborhood which seems to have been resolved.

That wasn't my issue to begin with. It is more that all of her pushes have felt completely nonsensical.

I strongly disagree with this.

[FourTrouble]

@F-16:

I forgot you wanted to have a conversation about farside. I had a strong sense that farside was town Yesterday and rereading her posts I still have her as strong town. There's a few things I like about her play but it comes down to her tone (a level of conviction that matches up very well with what she's saying/doing) and her questions (showing her intent to figure things out).

413, 414, and the vote in 419 felt 100% town. I felt the same about Rach until I gave it more thought. And I gave it more thought in large part because you were townreading her and I was trying to understand where that townread came from, and that's something I don't think farside would do the way I did because I she doesn't have the same history that I have with you. I like the questions in 488; they look like town trying to figure out TD's alignment + the alignments of the folks TD attacked. 513 also feels like a genuine attempt to figure Rach out. And 600's questions feel like town, too. farside's asking questions that resonate with me (they're questions that I had or questions that I wanted answered after they were asked), so they feel very much like town.

Also, not only do farside's questions have direction, but she's asking way more questions than I think scum would ask. Just looking at number of questions relative to number of posts, farside's probably has a higher question-post ratio than any other player here. It feels like town trying to get a grasp on the game and understand how others think about the game much more than scum faking a bunch of a questions re: anything that catches their eye. Admittedly, I'm biased because this is how I approach the game as town (I read the game looking for scum, and ask questions to understand things that I think will help me figure shit out, and one of the big differences between my play as town or scum is the quality/amount of the questions I ask), but even given that bias, I still think this is a huge town-tell, because it shows how farside is approaching the game. Because scum are informed, scum generally approach the game from the perspective that they have to fake scumreads; town, on the other hand, approach the game trying to figure stuff out. As a result, I think town are much more likely to ask as many questions as farside's been asking, especially given the quality of her questions (they're not just random/meaningless questions; they pretty clearly have direction and show a depth to her thought process that I don't think scum can just go and fake).

Re: farside's pushes -- I think the way she kept coming back to Ace felt very natural, both tonally and in relation to the gamestate. For example, 1422; the phrasing "okay back to ace for a moment" is so town, and the follow up looks much more like a town tunnel than a scum tunnel. As to the push on Rach, it made sense, especially based on the way farside plays (farside's has a lot of conviction as town and wants to be right, so she's a hardcore tunneler, and that's kind of what you see with the way she reads Ace/Rach on D1). Also, I didn't say anything about this earlier because it was't something I feel confident about and it's just my own thoughts, but I've had my own suspicions about Rach the entire game for similar reasons as farside, so to me that push made tons of sense. farside explains it very well, so if you think it's nonsense, I don't really know what to tell you other than I think you're biased because you're reading Rach as town, and she's really not very town unless you've played with her before. Also, note that the tone and emotion in 1868, 1870, 1906, and 1907 feels extremely town -- e.g. saying something like "it's like you didn't even read my case" and then apologizing for feeling "annoyed" is very genuine.

I dunno. I went through farside's ISO and there's nothing there that town wouldn't do or say, and there's nothing there that strikes me as scummy; her level of investment, her tone, her play in general, just makes too much sense as town and not much sense as scum.

[FourTrouble]

Gonna do myself a favor and not read that^ until I've parsed my own thoughts on the matter.

That's a good idea. Also, this feels super town but fuck you Ceph because it's also something you'd fake as scum.

[FourTrouble]

Metal, why is mastin town?

[FourTrouble]

Thinking on my two biggest D1 scumreads:

Mastin could potentially just be slightly crazy town-Mastin doing slightly crazy town-Mastin stuff.

I do get some townvibes from Ceph but it isn't enough to take away from the suck-uppy, ingratiating tone of his posts and his buddying of FT D1 was so blatant I have trouble thinking he legitimately actually came up with such targeted buddying as town.

We're on the same page re: Ceph (notes of town that don't mean much because Ceph drops those notes as scum in every game I've seen and the way he buddied with me is one of the strongest scum-tells I've seen and very much the kind of scum-tell Ceph drops).

Mastin "could" be town but that's so unlikely at this point; her play at the end of D1 and start of D2 is scum, through and through. I have a lot to say about mastin -- this read has been percolating for some time -- but I'm gonna wait a little longer on that. I don't want to bias anyone else's reads just yet.

[FourTrouble]

She was yelling that AP was town. Could be scummy, I've seen scum WK like that before, but probability is town from average player

Say more on this. Is mastin an "average" player? If you've seen scum "WK" like that, why is mastin town for doing it?

[FourTrouble]

Go to S&S.
Iso me.
ctrl f "mhork" and "mastin".
then you can come back here and tell me I only buddy as scum.

Not saying you only buddy as scum.

[FourTrouble]

her play at the end of D1 and start of D2 is scum, through and through.

It reminded me of her play in Tales of You when we counterclaimed Rancid and pushed for their lynch.

How so?

[FourTrouble]

her play at the end of D1 and start of D2 is scum, through and through.

It reminded me of her play in Tales of You when we counterclaimed Rancid and pushed for their lynch.

How so?

Being really, really obnoxiously sure about a someone I'm scumreading. We were wrong on Rancid (although justified considering they fake-claimed our role), and I was right on AP here. Both times, Mastin annoyingly, irritatingly, pops up at deadline and undermines the work that others have put in.

I don't remember the details of Tales, but what I'm seeing here is mastin bitching that AP is town, but doing nothing -- NOTHING -- to stop his lynch. Her vote was on Imperium -- Imperium! -- when there was no way, no chance in hell, that Imperium was getting lynched. Beast, maybe. Ceph, maybe. TD, maybe. Imperium? Not a chance in hell. So what I'm seeing is someone who's saying AP is town over and over, with absolute certainty, but not actually trying to save AP (vote is out of sync with her commentary). And that's a massive scum-tell, because it suggests that she was preinclined to read AP as town (informed perspective) but not actually desiring to save AP. Also, there's a big difference in Tales, because there (if I recall correctly) mastin was also one of our scumreads, and I think we were one of hers (yes?), so when we're scumreading someone, she's gonna be inclined to read that person as town. Whereas here, you were strong town, so there's not that same basis for calling AP town based on your push. But note -- I may be mischaracterizing what happened in Tales, because honestly I checked out of that game on D1 or D2, and didn't even realize mastin or Rancid were town until you told me in our PM.

[FourTrouble]

Also, admittedly, my saying mastin did nothing to save AP is an exaggeration. But the main thrust of my analysis stands. And I also think mastin calling AP a scumdriven lynch is very superficial and scummy, because most of the folks on AP's lynch look like town regardless of AP's flip, and scum in a situation where town is mislynching have every incentive to let town mislynch instead of pushing the lynch themselves. So I don't know why mastin insists on the idea that AP's lynch was scumdriven based solely on the idea that AP flipped third-party. And I also disagree that third-party play like town. I was recently third-party bulletproof in a game, and I can say with certainty that my incentives were totally skewed -- I faked townreads on my biggest scumreads because I was scared shitless about a strongman kill and wanted to townread scum so they wouldn't kill me. I played much more like scum than town, so I totally disagree that third-parties play like town, especially in games that are role heavy.

[FourTrouble]

Go to S&S.
Iso me.
ctrl f "mhork" and "mastin".
then you can come back here and tell me I only buddy as scum.

Not saying you only buddy as scum.

btw, what *were* you saying, then?

1888 and 1976, i.e. fake surprise = fake buddying. I haven't read S&S but I'm guessing your buddying looked different there (i.e. based on genuine emotions and therefore not fake).

[FourTrouble]

It doesn't work when you say they're town, let me help you. You're charismatic you should push for the lynch!

I don't get what you're doing besides playing against your win con.

Votes have more utility than just signaling your biggest suspect.

[FourTrouble]

mastin, you're right I don't know AP as well as you, so maybe he was trying to play 100% pro-town. Even if that's how all third-parties played, they'd still play different from town, because psychologically-speaking your incentives are different. The best example I can think of is how third-party reacts to players who they think are being mislynched: as town, you'd do your best to save them; but as third-party, you're less likely to put forth effort stopping the mislynch, even if you're scumhunting as usual and trying to play to your towngame. Because the incentives are different, it takes more effort to stop a mislynch as scum than it does as town; it's easier to just be apathetic about it, since unlike the mafia, you don't actually know if the person is town or scum, and either way, you couldn't care less who gets lynched as long as it's not you. AP's play had strong hints of town -- and I pointed this out Yesterday -- but it also had strong hints of scum. At the end of the day, he posed a threat to the town, as any third-party does. So you're wrong to keep saying it was a town lynch.

You're also 100% wrong about optimal SK strategy. Survival is your goal. That means you want people to think you're town while also avoiding the night-kill or a day-kill. The whole thing about playing 100% pro-town isn't gonna serve that end because you're gonna attract attention from scum. If you're bulletproof, and scum can't night-kill you, then they're gonna push your lynch. The more pro-town you are, and the higher risk you pose to the scum, the more they want you dead. When your goal is survival, that's not your optimal strategy.

You're also wrong that AP's lynch is scumdriven. Here's the folks on the lynch: Ace, Magua, ooba, Vezok, Rach, Ankamius, TSO, Skybird, Heartless, Imperium, and The Mask. Solar set the lynch up with his analysis, but he's town, and he didn't vote, so I'll ignore that for now. The Mask is town. Magua, Ooba, and Vezok are town. Imperium's town. Ankamius is town. That leaves Ace, Rach, TSO, Skybird, and Heartless. If the lynch was "scumdriven," then you're saying that Rach/Ankamius/TSO is scum (since those votes, along with the absence of your vote on a viable counter-wagon, were the main votes that made AP's lynch). But where's your vote right now? It's on Skybird, right? Skybird's vote was more of a deadline vote than a scum-pushing-a-lynch-on-town vote, which is what you're saying it was. Skybird might be scum - yes - but it's not because of his vote on AP.

I have a question about your play D1. In 2630, you say you could vote for Beast, and you'd prefer Beast to AP, but you don't vote Beast. At that point, there were 5 votes on Beast and 8 on AP. With your vote, it would have been 6 to 8. When questioned about that, in 2652, you vote Heartless instead, with an hour left. Then, you cave anyway in 2673 and vote for Beast. But then, you switch to Imperium, in 2747. How do any of those moves make any sense? If you wanted Beast lynched instead of AP, then people need to know that's an option. Voting TD, Heartless, and Imperium, when none of those lynches were going to happen an hour from deadline, has no value whatsoever. It certainly doesn't help stop a lynch on AP. Because to me, it says you didn't actually want to create another option to AP, and that's scummy as fuck, given your strongly worded defense.

[FourTrouble]

@Mastin:

Another point about third-parties relevant to AP -- they react differently than town when they come under significant pressure. Town KNOW they're town, so anyone who suspects them is automatically wrong, even if that person is town. But third-party KNOW the person suspecting them is right about their alignment, so their response contrived in a way that town's responses aren't. AP was under pressure for the majority of his posts, given Solar's immediate pressure on him, so his responses to Solar (and others pressuring him) were contrived and in fact scummy, as F-16 pointed out.

[FourTrouble]

Mastin, why is Ooba so low on your list?

[FourTrouble]

Ooba's town.

[FourTrouble]

Four: is there any reason you are not chating in the neighbor thread, even during the night phase?

No reason. Mostly just forgot about the neighborhood.

[FourTrouble]

Mastin, priding yourself on knowing theory doesn't mean you're right on everything theory. This --

SK-like roles with BP playing as anything other than town are fucking morons.
Because as a serial killer who is bulletproof, you WANT the scum antagonizing you because you WANT one of them to flip scum (heck, you don't even need it to be via lynch--you're a damn serial killer; just "vig" the scum and if there's no vig in the game you might be able to claim vig for further towncred, having shot scum!), because scum pushing you and flipping scum = you were either being hardcore bussed or "aren't scum" = your survival chances increase exponentially.

-- is how I used to think, too. I agree that playing bulletproof SK this way isn't a bad strategy. I even played SK exactly this way before, killing scum and claiming vig, all the way to like D6 or something. But it's not the best strategy -- because townies get lynched all the time based on who the scum want to eliminate, and scum will want to get rid of a bulletproof SK as fast as possible. Anyway, I think you're missing my point which is, EVEN IF AP WAS PLAYING 100% PRO-TOWN, and EVEN IF THAT'S THE OPTIMAL STRATEGY, it doesn't mean the lynch was on town. Nor does it mean that AP's play wasn't scummy, because as I said earlier, third-party have to lie when they come under pressure (i.e. they know they're scum so arguing that they're not is lying).

[FourTrouble]

Mastin, what are some of your games as scum?

[FourTrouble]

Pere was by far the most scummy in our neighborhood, so that flip doesn't surprise me.

[FourTrouble]

Ooba is one of my strongest townreads; the Pere flip doesn't change that.

[FourTrouble]

btw I checked the neighborhood, and Pere's posts there seem to be slightly at odds with what he said here. His first post says that House and Beast are scum; back and forth on Sonic; doesn't like Brantz; and no thoughts on Mastin/AP yet. He seems to really think House is scummy for some reason (never says this in the game thread). Later, he says vezok is town. D2 starts, he says he likes Heartless, and Magua looks town but it's a biased read.

[FourTrouble]

Pere was by far the most scummy in our neighborhood, so that flip doesn't surprise me.

So, if you thought Peregrine was scum, why didn't you push him once?

If I thought Pere was scum, I would have pushed him.

[FourTrouble]

I'm considering Skybird.

[FourTrouble]

So, Pere being scum didn't surprise you at all, but simultaneously you didn't actually think Pere was scum.

Like, I get that there's a tiny window of possibility of you being able to hold both beliefs together, but it seems an incredibly lazy and ambiguous stance, especially for you.

And the only mention of Pere in your ISO is you saying you don't want to lynch him - it feels like you didn't particularly support a wagon on him. And I don't see why you would oppose a Pere wagon if him flipping scum wouldn't surprise you.

Okay, look. I've played with Pere a couple times, including both as town and scum. I'm not surprised he's scum because process of elimination suggests he's probably scum, but that doesn't mean I had a scumread on him. He was null to me in a game with lots of players I townread, so yes he was scum via poe. But Pere has lurked hardcore in every I've played, so that's not a basis to push a lynch on him, at least not on D1. I already explained this -- when he starts posting more, I can read him pretty well, so I was waiting until D2 before coming to any conclusions.

[FourTrouble]

The Ooba point is actually good because I'm not sure how Ooba went from townreading AP to having common ground with me. I think Mastin's AP obsession has at least brought forth some decent points.

This is actually a pretty good point. I'm curious what Ooba has to say about it. I'm also starting to agree with Mastin's read on Skybird (though for slightly different reasons).

[FourTrouble]

I've been prodded (I appreciate that btw). I'm gonna postpone catching up for a bit and start rereading the game from the beginning tomorrow. I want to reevaluate everything.

[FourTrouble]

Vote beast

[FourTrouble]

Kind of devoid. It gave me a townread on someone when I last read it, but that was a while ago and I forgot who it was, so we'll see when I start rereading things.

[FourTrouble]

Solar, Metal, Imperium, Ankamius, and farside are still strong town.

Ooba's still town too but weaker than before.

Bitmap, Magua, Vezok, Mask, and TD are probably town.

That leaves Mastin, Skybird, Ace, Beast, TWIE, ZZZX, Cephrir, Rach, TSO, Xombie, and Heartless. I'd say scum are in that group. 11 players. Mastin swears she can prove herself and ZZZX. If that's the case, then it's 9 players. I'm down to lynch any of these folks at this point. I'm guessing we have enough mislynches available -- if we also take into account Metal's role -- to win outright just by lynching that group.

[FourTrouble]

Does anyone know how many neighborhoods there are?

[FourTrouble]

Also let me clear up the situation with beast.

Beast claimed in our neighbourhood that if he lives through day 1 his role will confirm him as town. We waited and his confirmation was that he had 1/2 votes. He said his vote fluctuated. I guessed that he gains a vote for each kill and that he had half because of brambles. He came in the thread and claimed that he actually gains half a vote for each death since the last night. So he had half a vote from the AP lynch. He did this incredibly calmly.

I couldn't see this coming from scum beast in a million years. His scumbuddies would've coached him and told him something to fakeclaim. He wouldn't have responded so quickly to my guess, because he would've asked his scum friends how to react.

Seriously, beast IS TOWN.

The lynch today is between FT and TD.

Role confirmation doesn't confirm alignment.

[FourTrouble]

I dunno if Beast is town but he's certainly a better lynch than TD.

I think TD's roleblock claim + vote on mastin was incredibly town.

[FourTrouble]

Vote beast

What changed your read on TD?

His roleblock claim. But I gotta rethink that.

[FourTrouble]

What else could he do given the circumstances?

What do you mean?

[FourTrouble]

Okay, this weekend I promise I'm gonna get back in this game.

[FourTrouble]

FT if scum could easily bus PV. If he thought that PV was a liability to his team, he'd sooner bus than claim that past experience with PV made him cautious of PV. And I looked through his games: he did in fact play with town and scum PV and PV's play was fairly low-activity in both games as far as I recall. I'm not as sure in my townread of FT though and that's bugging me a little but not enough to vote him today.

lol. You obviously haven't read through the game.

[FourTrouble]

Ffery, I agree with your strong town list. I'd add ooba, farside, and iHouse to it. What did you think of my analysis re: TD? Also, I agree with this:

18. The Mask - this is a pretty null read. I feel like the abrasiveness is an over the top affectation, and there's very little meat beyond that in his iso.

I've been trying to get a read on Mask since he made his first appearance. There isn't much of a long-term scum strategy behind insulting everyone, so that feels more towny than scummy. But his emotion and content absolutely feels empty. As far as I can tell, he's scumreading me based on my style, so it's almost like he's setting up a dichotomy between his mode of communication (over-the-top emotion) and mine (understated emotion). Or, for example, he says my posts are "polished/prim," which I suppose means he thinks I'm putting effort into the game. He's not putting effort into the game, apparently hates everyone and hates reading through the game, so again he's setting up a dichotomy between my play and his. I dunno if that's a scum-tell (i.e. a very mechanical approach to "scumhunting" draped in an over-the-top expression of emotion definitely rings scummy), or if it just reflects a shitty townie's "FT's style is opposite mine, he must be scum"-style of scumhunting.

11. PeregrineV - I feel like pere always winds up here on day 1 due to heavy-duty lurking. It seems like even heavier duty than normal, though, with very little content

6. Beastcharizard - reading his iso, it's all posturing with no reasoning whatsoever about his stances. I could say the same about Mask, but in Mask's case I don't have any experiential meta to say this is off his usual town play. In beast's case I do.

Re: Pere -- I'm not lynching him Today. I think he's one of the easier players to read when he starts posting more (at least in my experience), so I'd rather wait on this.

Re: Beast -- I agree. His townread on TSO and vote on iHouse suck, especially in the absence of any other substantive content or vote. I'd be willing to vote there.

after the flip:

Pere was by far the most scummy in our neighborhood, so that flip doesn't surprise me.

so....... when was FT going to start this push????? he obviously was looking for something AS INDICATED IN 3649, HE FOUND IT. i don't know

This was explained earlier.

Between Farside, Ankamius, and Pere, Pere who I would have lynched.

But between Pere and everyone else, on D1, I wanted to lynch people I scumread, not people I had no read on but who were likely scum by process of elimination.

I literally just had this argument with someone on the other site that I play mafia with F-16 on. Lynching scumreads is better than lynching inactive players. So, as long as I have a scumread to push instead of an inactive player, I'm gonna push the scumread. Inactives get pushed when all my other reads are townreads.

[FourTrouble]

@ FT, I wrote the above text which I think you mistakenly quoted Heartless on.

Mafiascum glitched. I meant to quote Heartless's reply to your text. I didn't edit the quote so I dunno what happened there.

[FourTrouble]

And also, when I say I'm not surprised Pere flipped scum, it doesn't mean I thought he was scum -- I had no idea what he was. I was waiting for him to post more, because I have a couple markers for town Pere that I look for.

[FourTrouble]

F-16, you prefer Beast to TD?

[FourTrouble]

farside, why do you think I'm scum?

[FourTrouble]

I'm trying to piece together the neighborhoods. Can someone who's been taking notes on this please help.

This is what I have so far:

1. Solar, Imperium, TD.
2. Mastin, ZZZX, and Xombie.
3. TSO, Beast, Vezok.
4. Metal, Skybird, TWIE
5. Farside, Ankamius, Pere, me.

What are the others?

[FourTrouble]

I have Mask/AP in the same neighborhood, and Ceph/Heartless in the same neighborhood.

Is our neighborhood the only 4 person neighborhood?

[FourTrouble]

And Magua is in the hood with Metal?

[FourTrouble]

My comment about Pere wasn't fake. I didn't want to lynch him D1, but I'm not surprised he flipped scum. I don't get what's so hard to understand about that. Have you never felt that way about anyone before?

As for neighborhood, anything I'd post there is something I'd post here, so I haven't had any need to post there. But that doesn't mean I haven't read it or tried figuring ya'll out.

[FourTrouble]

My comment about Pere wasn't fake. I didn't want to lynch him D1, but I'm not surprised he flipped scum. I don't get what's so hard to understand about that. Have you never felt that way about anyone before?

As for neighborhood, anything I'd post there is something I'd post here, so I haven't had any need to post there. But that doesn't mean I haven't read it or tried figuring ya'll out.

This was directed at farside.

[FourTrouble]

Okay, so most of the neighborhoods have 4 players. So I'm guessing there's 6 neighborhoods?

[FourTrouble]

Or 7? One with 3 players?

[FourTrouble]

There are so many inaccurate statements in that post i dont even know where to start.

What's inaccurate about it? Looks fine to me.

[FourTrouble]

Mastin, why do you prefer TD to beast?

[FourTrouble]

How come our neighbourhood's protection on Beast isn't seen as relevant yet mastin's doing the same to multiple people and it is?

Also btw this is a bullshit question -- because in case you didn't notice, beast is on the chopping block while mastin's folks aren't.

[FourTrouble]

Okay, let's say 7 neighborhoods. How many mafia do you think there are?

[FourTrouble]

Anti's estimate is five, so I'll go with that.

5? I suppose that's plausible.

With 7 neighborhoods, that means at least 2 neighborhoods are all town. I'm thinking 6 mafia makes more sense. That would mean at least 1 neighborhood is all town. Of course, there could be neighborhoods with multiple mafia, and more all town neighborhoods.

[FourTrouble]

How come our neighbourhood's protection on Beast isn't seen as relevant yet mastin's doing the same to multiple people and it is?

Also btw this is a bullshit question -- because in case you didn't notice, beast is on the chopping block while mastin's folks aren't.

I don't think you read what I posted right - if you did, you would not have responded with this, because it's arguing in favor of my point.

You're not making any sense. What's your point?