Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

Hi everyone!

Vote: Peabody

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

Original Roll String: 2d6 (STATIC)

2 6-Sided Dice: (3, 3) = 6

Was this deliberately done to give mathcam, Cyberbob and le Chat the best odds of winning your vote? Why not 1d12?

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

I didn't want to vote me

Why not take the 1/12 risk of voting yourself?
Why not 1d11 with yourself excluded?
Why cop out and use dice in the first place?

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

-If you want to vote for yourself, go ahead.
-Because that's how I roll.
-Dice are fun sometimes.

Please explain how using dice is a "cop out".

If you're going to randomly select a player with dice, why not be fair and include yourself in it, or at least give everyone equal odds?

I'm personally not a fan of the RVS, but it seems to be a culture etched in the meta of this site, so much so that deviations from this tend to raise eyebrows. The psyche behind random voting is that no votes are

truly

random, and scum have to actively choose to vote a buddy or a townsperson.

I don't really buy into that logic though, and I will happily endorse alternate starts to a game, as you may occasionally generate odd tells from a unique situation scum isn't used to. But dice don't serve either purpose. It's an active commitment to something you have no control over - the only tell others can derive from the post is the choice to use dice, which looks like one avoiding responsibility for the outcome.

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

Mod:

What's the reasoning behind the order of the list of players? They're not alphabetic, nor sorted by chronological order of sign-ups or confirmations.

When the thread was first opened, I'm fairly sure the list was alphabetical, but there were two names missing. Checking back after about 30 minutes, the two missing names were added but the list was shuffled when confirmations came in.

---

Hey le Chat, are you an alt? Or do you just play elsewhere?

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

My vote isn't random.

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

My vote isn't random.

I must have missed your explanation then. Point me to it.

I haven't got it yet. I'm waiting for an answer on the top half of post 20.

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

I'm just wondering why you were paying such close attention to the player list, Hoopla. Do you always do that?

No, never really. The only reason why it was any different this time is because I was online when my role PM was delivered, and upon viewing the thread noted two names missing from the list.

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

Fuck, I feel kind of guilty about this now. To be honest, when I noticed it, I didn't think much of it at the time, and my PM to you about the missing names was just out of courtesy to tell you. It didn't click until the game started, as I remember how I randomized roles when I first started modding. Either way, I feel responsible for messing the game up. I should have replaced out, and not spoke without thinking.

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

I don't care, it was just a freak occurrence. Just for fun, I think Talitha was scum.

Wrong.

And Kublai, I'll jump in again if you'll have me.

Mod's Note: This post is non-cannon and therefore not part of the game

[Hoopla]

Well, this is a refreshing start. I'm all for the blatant bandwagonning, but I feel I should at least offer an alternate for those still undecided.

Vote: Vaya

[Hoopla]

Precisely because it doesn't happen that often. It gave me pause to consider.
Fact: The odds of scum being on that wagon are probably higher than it consisting entirely of townies.
Fact: The scum were allowed 21 hours to talk pre-game.

Debatable. I don't know if I want to do the math, but will agree that if every player's alignment on a 5-vote wagon was truly random, it is probable scum is there. But I think bandwagonning is more beneficial to town than to scum - town generates early reads. The closer to lynch they get, the more valuable they usually are. But the only thing scum has to gain from bandwagonning is the remote chance of a quick-lynch, which is never really worth the attention in itself.

In my experiences, early wagonning usually consists of town players. In fact, because I love you, I am willing share with you some data that shows it's generally a pro-town play.

[Hoopla]

The back and forth between Coco and co. is starting to become an irrelevant typing contest. The only thing of note coming from that was Coco's 104 which is rife with OMGUS and over-defensiveness.

I think both sides of this argument are overreacting. I'm not sure that "Oh look this person is overreacting...SCUM" is entirely applicable when you have so many new players around (who, I've found, tend to be a tad more emotional in their posting).

The wagon was kind of dumb but I don't think it was scummy. These things happen.

Dang it, I need to get a random vote in before discussion starts:

vote mathcam

because I suck at math.

This is a pretty terrible vote. "Before discussion starts"? You're only two pages late on that score... are you sure that it's the only reason?

Vote: Peabody

Good posting. This wagon needs to generate more steam.

Vote: Peabody

[Hoopla]

I don't get the purpose of a recap after 5 pages, we're all capable of reading.

Now, who looks scummiest in all that? This is a question for everyone.
Second, the Peabody wagon is incredibly stupid.

^ This is all you needed to say.

Condensing every post into one is subjective and more often than not bias seeps in. If you really care for a true evaluation of the game from everyone, why must they do it through your interpretation of play so far? We don't need recaps, we need analysis.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Talitha

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Talitha

Any particular reason?

Of course! I expect more from her.

[Hoopla]

Why?

Besides Sens, you've been one of the quieter one's - votes are usually a good way to hurry up that process. An active town is a good town.

hoopla seriously how old are you. also hoopla do you expect as much from me as you do talitha?

I'm probably older than the average age of users here, although I suspect that question was rhetorical.

It's really important to keep everyone as active and involved in the game as possible. Balance of input is super important - one of the things I hate most is 4-5 people talking lots and then everyone else having to post big walls of text to catch up. Succinctness and a relatively even spread of participation is key. This is why I like chasing lurkers, or those external to the central conversation.

It probably sounds like a load of rubbish, but it is important and makes future analysis of D1 easier, which imo, is the best place to catch scum.

Also, tell me your alt account here.

[Hoopla]

Understandable.

As a side-note, Harumafuji's posts are hilarious. They look like the end-result from something from Translation Party.

[Hoopla]

Looking into some of Haru's posts, I would say it is almost certain that he is using that website for everything he writes. For those that don't know what it is, it's a utility that translates a phrase back and forth between English and Japanese. Usually, because sentences don't always directly translate, it will come back a garbled mess. The simulation stops when the same message keeps coming back.

I've messed around on that website before - occasionally a phrase will reach it's equilibrium after one or two attempts, but this is rare (unless you type in a 2-3 word phrase). What makes me strongly suspect Haru is using Translation Party or something similar, is many of his quotes are already at their equilibrium when I run them through the simulation.

I was in the glass, you agree to these cute little girl.

I have an idea to offset the Charter Lynch. Peabody Charter please vote for my questions. We are all benefiting from the UN Charter. Peabody "random votes" is a cop. Peabody, the drive is quite right in the Charter is already voting.

You'd expect both of these sentences to return a series of amusing mash-ups, but they don't change. Unless Haru can come clean and explain what he's doing, I'm placing my vote on him for actively hurting the town by deliberately making no sense.

Unvote, vote: Harumafuji

[Hoopla]

So, I'm not intentionally lurking, just out of town visiting my girlfriend. I'll be back home on Tuesday.

Thanks for your co-operation!

Yeah, okay Sens.

[Hoopla]

i dont find Harumafuji's account-imposed posting restriction to be scummy. i assume it was something he decided he would do before he received his role and therefore is just a Harumafuji-tell not a scum-tell. It seems like an easy lynch to push for, though. hmm!

I don't think it is a scum-tell either - I agree that he probably decided to do it before the game, regardless of alignment. But faking a post restriction (of this extreme) is very anti-town, as it's basically one player slot we can't receive analysis from. For what it's worth, I'm not pushing for his lynch (yet).

[Hoopla]

The Hoopla vs Harufakefuji thing was interesting too. Still trying to figure out if I think Hoopla acted a little suspiciously there.

I don't see how. Clarity is important to the town, while Haru's garbled nothing-posts only serve to provide murkier waters for scum to lurk in.

[Hoopla]

And I've decided that I do in fact find Hoopla suspicious. She already acknowledged that Haru's garbled-ness very likely has nothing to do with his alignment and is IMO incorrect, or at the very least exaggerating when saying that "Haru's garbled nothing-posts only serve to provide murkier waters for scum to lurk in".

I'm not suggesting Haru is scum by my quote - I'm saying that whoever the scum is in this game only serve to prosper by having one player slot not contributing analysis. Then,

if

he is indeed scum, it is difficult for the town to spot scum-tells through his act.

Can you explain why you think my quote is incorrect?

[Hoopla]

This argument is getting dumb, but I'll answer anyway.

Hoopla, I think your quote is likely to be incorrect because the only scum that can "lurk in the murky waters" of Haru's posts, is Haru himself. Also, I don't see why one player not providing analysis is so detrimental.

What if there was another player posting only in emoticons? Or another talking in morse code? How much anti-town play would there need to be before it caused concern to you? Just because it's only one player doesn't mean it's excusable. As far as I'm concerned, his playstyle makes him near unreadable. It makes the water murkier in the same way of being in a town of lurkers, it's guess-work.

But that's all beside the point. Hoopla, if you have no reason to think he's scum why didn't you try asking him to change his posting so we can understand? Why not try reasoning with him? Why go on the attack, vote and give an ultimatum?

Because I don't think he's scum, it does not mean it is a really anti-town thing to do. I'm offering an ultimatum because if he doesn't change his style, I'd push for a policy lynch. For what it's worth, I'm usually for policy lynches of chronic lurkers or players with an anti-town meta on D1, so it's not like I'm giving him unique treatment.

This isn't an attack - I doubt Haru is going to get anywhere close to lynch before he responds, and I've already stated that I'm not pushing for his lynch. I just don't get how anyone can generate a substancial read on him when you can't get direct answers to questions.

It smacks of looking for an easy target or a distraction.

So we should just ignore everything anti-town to prevent it being a distraction? I think accusing me of causing a distraction is a distraction.

---

On that subject what happened to your vote on Peabody? You unvoted with zero explanation ONE DAY after saying (re Peabody's wagon) "Good posting. This wagon needs to generate more steam." Why?

Because I found a better place for my vote. I haven't forgot about Peabody. And at the moment, I'm happy with it's use on Haru.

[Hoopla]

Ah, I see you were IN a Silent game. That is very interesting, but forget my last 2 sentences.

But to answer your question about a player posting in emoticons, no as long as they are trying to make themselves understood by some means I would not vote for them unless I had a reason to suspect them of being scum.

I wasn't actually, my post at the end of that game was a joke. The difference between these games is that everyone is at the same level, as opposed to one player deliberately handicapping themself.

I don't appreciate my arguments being called dumb, and think you're on a bit of a high horse there.

I'm sorry for being rude.

[Hoopla]

Hey guys, SC replacing in.

Allow me a bit of time to catch up and I'll go find the scum and solve this mess for you.

Sound good?

Don't you mean...


If you replace the time I was in.

Some of Bonn, to catch up with the news, I will go and I will find the scum please contact hours to solve this confusion please.

Sound good?

---

Appologies for falling behind this game. I will post my thoughts first thing tomorrow, if not tonight if I can get around to it.

[Hoopla]

Here is my previously mentioned catching up post, which will be various thoughts on players/plays that have caught my eye.

---

I'll start with CoCo, which seems like the logical place to start, considering almost all the play so far has featured him. I think CoCo's abrasiveness is an asset to the town, despite getting caught up in useless semantics debates occasionally, and is starting to appear a little pro-town, if only because of his activeness which is a loose town-tell.

On a reread, a couple of things have irked me about his play. Earlier he was quick to condemn Vaya (74) for an OMGUS vote (73), which looked more like theory disagreement, yet later (104) resorted to OMGUS on mathcam and charter. It was rightly picked up by charter, and both scenarios look very similar, with CoCo representing different sides.

I also dislike the amount of non-points CoCo has persisted with, ranging from his 'early reports' semantics gem, and baseles random comments which seek to incriminate without actually saying anything specific. Here is a good example.

But oddly, I find it hard to see CoCo being scum. Some of his early play suggests he is still relatively new to the game, particularly his reaction to my early bandwagon. Such brazen play is hard to forge, particularly from a newer player. I read him as town.

---

Onto le Chat now, for whom I only have one real point of note. On page 7 charter noted he had yet to vote (and didn't until page 10). Why did you vote in your first post in the original game before we restarted, and not this one? You were town in the previous game.

---

Onto a bit of active lurking now, which I think Peabody and Col.Cathart have been most guilty of. Col has been fence-sitting a lot of the game, and seems to chime in only occasionally with minimal conviction. Col's defense of Peabody's random vote (120) is unusual, particular when his wagon was just starting to pick up.

I agree with Talitha's (174) in regards to Peabody's contradiction in defending his random vote - coupled with him only really posting when someone questions him makes him a viable candidate for active lurking.

---

I'm not sold on Talitha's whisper of suspicion on mathcam. I feel she is probably the only one that has any idea of his usual playstyle, but I'm inclined to read mathcam as town for now. I don't understand mathcam's recent post where he would advocate a wagon on me, particularly when he has barely referenced me. Perhaps you can explain this one for me?

---

I have a little more I want to say, and will be cooking up more on and off during today. My vote on Haru is now void, so I'm going to swap back to Peabody.

Unvote, vote: Peabody

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: SensFan

Please either post something, or replace out. Sorry, but 11 day V/LA's without anything is too long.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: The shananigans with trying to get both myself and that Translation Party person lynched for weak reasons. In my case, it was something I posted in MD ages ago that was very obviously not the case here, in an attempt to make me look ridiculously scummy while she knew I would be unable to defend myself. In the TP-guy's case, it was saying he should be lynched just for using TP; should be be smacked for it? Absolutely, but lynches are too valuable to lynch someone just for that.

That is such a blatant misrepresentation and you know it. I was never pushing to get you lynched or Haru. Reread the translation party exchange again and you'll see my vote was there get answers for his anti-town play.

I have no problem with V/LA's, but you were gone for 11 days, not 7 which you asked for. I understand external problems, but how are we supposed to know you want extra time if you don't tell us?

[Hoopla]

To clarify that last part, you took the time to look up that one post I made in a MD thread a while ago, while not looking up the fact I wasn't posting at all on the site.

I would have done a thorough search of your post history had search been available.

Hoopla: The shananigans with trying to get both myself and that Translation Party person lynched for weak reasons.

In my case, it was something I posted in MD ages ago that was very obviously not the case here

, in an attempt to make me look ridiculously scummy while she knew I would be unable to defend myself. In the TP-guy's case, it was saying he should be lynched just for using TP; should be be smacked for it? Absolutely, but lynches are too valuable to lynch someone just for that.

4 months ago isn't ages, it's barely the length of a game in some cases. The fact you're here now and seemingly active makes it a moot point, because I doubt I'd ever know if you were lying or not. I am more than happy to unvote you now you're here.

Find me a post where I said I wanted to lynch Haru. I made it quite clear my vote was placed to demand answers.

Unvote

[Hoopla]

Hoopla - Going with Sensfan's point, I'm starting to see a pattern. You are pushing cases consistently based on "policy" votes. Haru did translation party, Sensfan for lurking...

I want that observation out there just for the record. I'm not meaning that comment to be contesting your judgment, but I'm sensing a pattern. Behaviorally, who do you think is mafia?

Yes, it is a pattern. On D1, town lynches are very close to random, so I endorse policy lynches on anti-town play. Without a major slip from scum, the percentages between your scum/town reads are slimmer than most people want to believe. So I believe it's better in the long run to eliminate a player D1 that could be costly later in the game. To use a random example;

Say you believe Chronic Lurker X's chance of being scum is around 30%, but Active Logical Player Y's chances of being scum is around 35%, I'd still rather lynch the lurker and take the chance he's scum. Because if Y is town he will be of far more use than X later in the game, which can negate a 5-10, even 15% difference in margins.

The reason towns don't often policy lynch anti-town players is because they overvalue their D1 reads.

---

Behaviourally, I still think your play fits the bill, mainly because the random vote thing was so awkward. I can understand a newer player wanting to experience the RVS or whatever, but I don't buy the joke defense.

le Chat being non-committal I interpret as a scum-tell. I don't understand the reluctance to vote. The vote is the most powerful tool the town has, and doesn't have to be used solely to try and get a lynch.

I don't like the charter wagon, and I don't think CoCo is scummy. So my top two lynch choices would be yourself or le Chat. I'd also adopt a Col.Cathart lynch mainly because I don't think charter is active lurking and Col seems to be pushing that.

Of course this is just behaviourally, other factors weigh into a D1 lynch choice, such as possible value to town later in the game, activeness and logical capacity.

[Hoopla]

2) Hoopla's "Policy lynches on anti-town play." I completely agree, so I don't see how you can ignore CoCo. I even mildly understand your feeling that CoCo's aggressiveness is helpful to the town, but I just don't think it's enough to compensate. Look, I don't know CoCo is scum (I'm still suspicious that Charter might know he's

not

,

FOS: Charter

), but I do know that if he is, we're never going to catch him unless we make him answer questions. The best way to do this is through voting pressure, and while my vote alone won't do it, it's a start.

I understand that, and I can easily see how CoCo's play can be interpretted as scum. I feel like I'm tricking myself into the 'too scummy to be scum' mindset, because it's not a typical place for scum to hide, especially on D1. It increases your likelihood of being lynched, and makes you a hot target for night choices. This is why I have a town read on CoCo.

CoCo has worth to the town. His aggressiveness and his activeness, despite occasional question-dodging is relatively pro-town. If/when CoCo dies, his confirmed alignment will hold a vast amount of data to work with on a lot of players, which is why I think it's worthwhile keeping him alive for at least another day.

Some of his play is probably anti-town, but he is definitely readable. This is the difference between chronic lurkers and players like Haru. I think prolonged failure to answer questions when we have confirmed information in the game would negate his pro-town value, but for now, he has enough use to negate his anti-townness.

It's not something he ought to get away with all game, and I expect CoCo will be more compliant when proper cases based on confirmed information surface. If not, then he is worth seriously considering.

[Hoopla]

Not at all liking this post from SC, for reasons completely unrelated to those quoting; just gives me a vibe of massive amounts of noise, hoping to obscure the fact the little signal there is isn't very pertinent.

How exactly? He's made a clear stance on many players and a lot of the theory debate.

Sens, I'm usually anti-walls and hate players that waffle on, but it's hardly a pattern from SC. When you consider he's missed 10 pages from replacing in, I'd say this is tolerable now. I think there is a balance people should aim for.

[Hoopla]

I know, and I'm not calling it a pattern. But I'm saying I found that post to be a load of junk.

Notice how I haven't made any post anywhere near that long, and no one complained that I didn't comment enough on what I missed?

What do you make of le Chat's play so far?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, what do you think of my reads?

Solid, well-founded. I agree with your town reads, and to a degree your neutral reads. I really don't agree with your scumread on Cyberbob though. Gutreads are hard to explain, so I at least give you credit for trying to quantify it.

Reading through Cyberbob in isolation, I find it odd how you called his posts 'careful'. He seems quite quick to jump on a variety of issues, and is more involved than typical careful scum. The one point that holds water, is that some of his attacks are weak or mediocre, but for D1 it isn't a crime.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, what makes you say they are well founded? Just an odd phrase to use for day one reads ( I hate day one).

To expand on the word careful, I mean careful that anything he attacks he is unquestionably right on. By that I mean there's almost no gut read, almost no sweeping declarations, almost no theory that can be argued with. His point always start at a minor scummy sentence and regularly stay there, never becoming something even mildly controversial.

I don't find myself feeling that his efforts are genuinely concerned whether the person BEHIND the comment he is attacking is scum, rather just being concerned that the comment is scummy.

Does that explain it better?

Logical and not dependant on unknown information.


And that does explain it better, but I don't think he's flying under the radar as much as you think. Vaya/Col/Peabody (and probably others) are also guilty of the lack of sweeping declarations - I don't understand that point.

SC, what do you think about Peabody and Col.Cathart?

I also want to know SC's thoughts on this.

[Hoopla]

I'm not a fan of the charter wagon right now, in no small part because I think there's at the very least one Scum in {SC, Col.C, CoCo}.

I agree, charter isn't a good lynch choice. I don't really understand the charges he's guilty of. Lets tilt the balance back in Peabody's favour.

Vote: Peabody

[Hoopla]

Though, now that I say that, it is a little odd that Tally didn't vote Peabody.

Cam

She was voting Peabody if I recall correctly, but then bailed at L-1. Peabody is the choice lynch today - the way his wagon has been yo-yoing up and down has been quite odd, so on the chance he isn't scum, we at least get an informative lynch. I've yet to really note any quality insight from Peabody, his only real attempts at scum-hunting has been a weak iso-case on Tally. Lets just get on with it.

For those opposed to this wagon or are off it currently for whatever reason, create another viable option. Charter was never a good lynch and the CoCo wagon isn't going anywhere. I'd think about jumping ship for Tally or Sens, but Peabody is the percentage play here.

[Hoopla]

sif = as if.

Eliminate the players who you think are probably town and 50/50 gets a lot more likely.

If you had the choice to personally lynch someone right now, forgetting about the rest of the town, who would it be?

Everyone automatically starts at 'probably town', though. Even if there is 3 scum, we all start at 25%. I fail to see anything someone could do to lower their chances to anything less than 15% on D1.

And once new confirmed information is in the game (lynches, night-kills), you should immediately reevaluate, as your reads are based on unknown information. The most effective way to scum-hunt is viewing interactions between live players and dead, confirmed players. D1 is always very random despite what anyone says.

[Hoopla]

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2),

Why would you possibly think 2:10 is balanced, when just about every Mini out there is 3:9, 3:8:1, or 2:2:8?

For what it's worth, of the ~10 completed 2:10 Mini Normal games, the town has never won one. These games usually have no or very little town powerroles, but I thought the general consensus was that these games were balanced toward scum.

[Hoopla]

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2),

Why would you possibly think 2:10 is balanced, when just about every Mini out there is 3:9, 3:8:1, or 2:2:8?

For what it's worth, of the ~10 completed 2:10 Mini Normal games, the town has never won one. These games usually have no or very little town powerroles, but I thought the general consensus was that these games were balanced toward scum.

No. That's not correct.

Of the ~10 completed

mountanous

2:20 Mini Games, the Town has never won once. Many people feel this is statistically insignificant, due to low sample size, since the set-up is balanced in theory.

Since mountainous 2:10 is probably scum-biased (even if it's not), there are plenty of conceivable 2:10 set-ups that could be balanced. Just throw in a powerrole or two. Just because a 2 scum game isn't common, doesn't mean it isn't possible. The fact the first game was only 2 scum, probably means this game is more likely to have 2 scum than any other mini normal chosen at random.

[Hoopla]

I'm not convinced the first game had 2 Scum and 10 Town.

Seriously, Town wins a good amount of 3:9 set-ups, so why you guys are assuming this is 2:10 is beyond me, and almost seems suspicious.

How are you not convinced...? Peabody and mathcam were the names left off the initial player list. This is how it was discovered they were scum. Peabody has even said, it was only him and mathcam.

I'm not assuming one way or the other - it's a useless guessing game on D1. This is the original quote I am responding to;

I think there's either 2 or 3 scum in this game (with a predilection towards 2),

Why would you possibly think 2:10 is balanced, when just about every Mini out there is 3:9, 3:8:1, or 2:2:8?

And I am saying 2:10 can just as easily be balanced.

I'm not convinced the first game had 2 Scum and 10 Town.

Seriously, Town wins a good amount of 3:9 set-ups, so why you guys are assuming this is 2:10

is beyond me, and almost seems suspicious.

What does town winning a lot of 3:9 set-ups have to do with this set-up? The fact that Kublai's initial game was 2:10 probably means that this game now, has a higher chance than usual of it being 2:10.

[Hoopla]

Oh, for fuck's sake!

Talitha and Chatrer are obvscum.

Both hopped off the Peabody wagon for various reasons and it all crap. The only person with a good reason to be on that wagon is Cyberbob.

Cyberbob is town.
Peabody is town.
Mathcam is neutral.
Vaya has no read for me anymore (not enough post-bandwagon-content).

Next post;

Unvote. Vote Charter.

CoCo jumps off the Peabody wagon, although I don't really know why he was on there in the first place. Here was his vote to put him at L-2;

After my discussion with Cyberbob last night and thinking about it today...

Unvote, Vote Peabody.

That discussion with Cyberbob only revolved around the joke RVS thing which has been around forever. Why did you only notice it being scummy now, when at the time you had this to say about the Peabody scenario;

So, because he never said it was a joke yet has said he wished to participate in an RVS; you find it scummy?

What's obtuse about it? Seriously, enlighten me. I cannot, in good consciousness, vote for a player that made a lame RVS joke. Had he not commenteated on the goings on, I'd be in your camp.

There are more quotes like this where CoCo defends Peabody heavily. What exactly changed your minds about these events CoCo, to see them as now scummy? Or do you now not find him scummy, now you're off Peabody's wagon? Seriously, I have no idea where you are in regards to Peabody.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, did you not notice the part in which I went back through the game and noticed that CB wasn't lying?

Rather than this spiralling into a mindless semantics debate, can you please just give me a summary of your current thoughts on Peabody? Because I don't really know.

[Hoopla]

So, I must assume no one here has bothered to read my games and instead prefers to insult me as a person.

Fail.

You have two completed games. What exactly are you hoping to prove with that sample size? The fact you're so eager to bring your own meta into play suggests to me you're likelier to be trying to manipulate it.

[Hoopla]

Interesting. To the contrary, I think we'd get tons of delicious information to digest if we lynched CoCo.

Cam

I'm starting to disagree and reevaluate my initial thought about CoCo's town value. With his seemingly indiscriminate OMGUS policy, and with some of the town starting to ignore him, I'm finding it hard to pinpoint what sort of information we could actually get from a CoCo flip.

Because it's such a bizarre style of play, and without any completed scum games, it's guesswork to have any clue whether he'd be going harder at buddies or townies. Or if he flipped town, I don't think it particularly incriminates/clears anyone, as almost everyone has expressed similar opinions about him.

So, the dilemma for me is, using the D1 lynch to remove someone hurtful to the town, or killing someone like Peabody who has an okay chance of being scum and holds a lot more information.

Like 5 people in a row agreed with Tally about CoCo being a good lynch. Why aren't we lynching him?

Anyway, I agree with this. I'd still rather a Peabody lynch, but I will support a CoCo wagon seeing as everyone is starting to come to the same opinion about him.

[Hoopla]

So, the dilemma for me is, using the D1 lynch to remove someone hurtful to the town, or killing someone like Peabody who has an okay chance of being scum and holds a lot more information.

What would you say to a scum lynch of Cathart or mathcam?

No to mathcam, he has a lot to offer town if he's town. And I haven't found him scummy.

I'd vote for Cathart if it's necessary to get a lynch, but he isn't in my top 2 or 3.

[Hoopla]

Do you think mathcam is town? Why or why not? Would you join me in a Cathart vote? What position is Cathart on your lynch spectrum?

Would you, Cyberbob, join me in a Cathart vote?

It's pointless for me to vote Cathart again if it's just going to be me, but if we get three votes on him, I think we can get some serious information from him. I'm still holding out for the mathcam wagon, but it's looking grim.

Yes, because there are a lot more town players than scum, and I have yet to see much scummy/anti-town play from mathcam. He's been logical and active. At the moment, he isn't townier than random, but I don't see any compelling reasons to lynch him.

---

As for Cathart, I believe some of the incriminating behaviour people have picked him up on have been honest mistakes. For example, asking Peabody to claim at L-1, when he didn't have the intention of hammering. I think that's a matter of a new player not understanding the reasons behind why certain policies happen, but doing it anyway, because he feels that's normal.

I understand you now find that particular piece of play null, but it gives an insight into the sort of player he is, which semi-explains the active lurking case behind him. He's still scummier than random, but this is based on a semantics argument with an unconfirmed alignment on D1. It isn't solid, which is why I'd still rather lynch someone who gives more information, or is less helpful to the town.

At the moment, Peabody and CoCo are ahead of him. He's probably equal for the next spot with the lurky Vaya.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, what are your thoughts on Sens?

The absence for 11 days at the start ticked me off, but now that he's here, I know this is how Sens plays. He's usually okay at finding scum in the early game using confirmed information, so I see this virtue as enough to counteract any lurkiness.

[Hoopla]

Do you mean that you've found evidence of him activly doign that this game, or doy ou mean in general he is able to do that and is therefore valuable enough to keep around?

Well, there are no confirmed alignments in this game yet. I'm talking about in general. I've played a few games with him before and have read through his other games during that time, so I know his general mafia philosophy and playstyle.

He does a lot of his scumhunting looking back at early in the game with confirmed alignments. I don't think he's as successful as he claims to be, but he usually has unique insights.

[Hoopla]

Considering I'm off the wagon

and happen to be reasonably against Peabody being scum. I'll go ahead and say claim or die Peabody.

Whoa.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.

What's the hold-up? There are now 7 people either voting for Peabody or willing to have Peabody hammered. That's a majority, and if it weren't for the fact a claim might save him, CoCo would have hammered by now.

I think Cyberbob is referencing CoCo's play from yesterday, ie this;

Yes, I think Peabody is town.

---

We need to get on with it, but CoCo should tell us why he wants to hammer Peabody.

[Hoopla]

Yay, we've started again. Extra yay for lynching scum (although statistically, lynching scum D1 doesn't improve town's win percentage). But Peabody was a good information lynch. I don't think the wifom Peabody offered after self-destructing is worth pursuing. It could have been a gambit, it could have been a feeble attempt to unsubtlely link himself to a townie. If I were to guess, I'd say based on experience, he wouldn't have the balls to out a partner.

I hate the 'too scummy to be scum' fallacy, but I'm seriously falling into with regards to CoCo. His flip-flopping and late bailout on Peabody's wagon seems just too audacious to be real. He's probably town, but either way he won't get NK'd for his ridiculous play, and I think he needs to be the lynch either today or tomorrow.

I have some gut feelings based on a brief skim of D1, but I'll make a more detailed assessment some time very soon.

[Hoopla]

In other news:

statistically, lynching scum D1 doesn't improve town's win percentage)

Really? That doesn't sound right. [citation please]

You're right, my memory fails me, as this was only based on newbie games. I think the logic is very similar for Mini Normal's though - as SensFan has pointed out. The easiest, most common way of catching scum, with any long-term success is by linking dead scum's play with the remaining players.

Now that we have search back, I spent a bit of time, trying to dig up where I remember this data from, but can only find a couple of posts referencing it, such as this from Mr. Flay. Forgive me for improper use of the term 'statistically' - this is very much more like a theory, backed up by a lot games read.

To elaborate, whenever someone is lynched, they generally give a certain amount of information - the later in the game they are lynched, the more information we get, and the more confirmed alignments, the more accurately you can guess who is what.

I'm trying articulate a scenario that explains this better, but a D1 lynch of scum produces a certain amount of information - but if we lynch scum D2 and not D1, we can assume we have produced twice as much information (or at least twice as valuable) from that lynch. I basically agree with what Sens has said - although I don't think I've made enough sense yet.

The most important point is about losing connections early, where a lot of people find accurate (better than random) reads.

[Hoopla]

Really sorry everyone for recent inactivity, I've been busy. Consider me officially now back on track, with much more time over the next couple of weeks. Mkay, now on to business, with some thoughts on D1 with the knowledge of Peabody's and Talitha's flips.

---

Firstly, Talitha's death seemed odd. Is it note-worthy that one of Peabody's main suspicions throughout D1 was Talitha, and vice-versa? Along with Cyberbob, Talitha was one of the Peabody wagon's most vocal advocates. I speculate the scum kill was done to make others on the Peabody wagon look more pro-town.

An oddity from D1 was Cyberbob who went the entire day without shifting his vote from Peabody. He made two FoS's throughout the course of the day, but made no effort (besides surface-deep enquiries) to pursue any other avenues. Although some consider it a scum-tell, I think town tend to vote-hop more than scum, and I find single-vote days truly bizarre (especially D1, with little to no knowledge). I'd like some explaination from Cyberbob about this.

--

I'm still at odds about what to do with CoCo. For those opposed to the 'easy lynch', do you think he would act any differently as scum? The facts are he defended Peabody on multiple occasions, especially early for the random vote thing (see here: 1, 2, 3, 4)

After this early foray of defenses, he decides to iso-read Peabody and conveniently does a 180 and jumps on with the L-1 vote. I know everyone is finding it difficult to read CoCo, but this is a signifigant enough piece of evidence - especially when he rarely, if ever defended any other player. It seems to me he was trying to deter suspicion on Peabody early, then as it became increasingly likely he was going to be lynched, he had to somehow change his views to jump on and gain some town credit.

This theory is also quantified by the way he acted toward my early bandwagon. You'll note he was on edge when my wagon reached 4 and 5 votes. I think a similar thing happened when Peabody reached the same mark, he genuinely felt his Peabody's lynch was inevitable, and had to change his views knowing what Peabody would flip.

This smorgasbord of evidence is enough for me to think he is probably scum. This does not even include points I posted throughout D1 (such as bringing up his own two-game meta to try and defend himself, and his late flip-flopping on Peabody).

So, my question to those who don't think CoCo is scum is; what would CoCo have to do, for you to consider lynching him? Despite being anti-town, people only oppose his lynch because it seems too obvious. This is a bad trap to fall into as it allows him to get away with anything that could be construed as lying or a scumtell. The lynches become more important each day, and we don't want to be in a situation where he is alive in Lylo.

--

One of the biggest things towns ignore are dead townies' previous suspicions. Reading through Talitha's thoughts, her most outgoing attack on anyone was SC, despite conceding he was playing like a townie. The only reason why this is signifigant is because she is confirmed town. This means her motivations were pure, and although possibly wrong, we know this wasn't a statement of manipulation or lie. This slightly boosts my suspicion on SC (even though I think he is town).

--

My town reads are charter and mathcam. Charter has been outgoing and his interaction with Peabody does not seem fake. I never understood his bandwagon, which admittedly was fueled largely by CoCo (which indicates its worth ). I haven't fully understood the pairing he made between Col.Cathart and Peabody, but I want to look into it.

Mathcam is a quality player, and probably quality as scum too, but he's made enough sense so far for me to not find any inconsistancies. The main reason why I find him town is because he appears least likely to be bussing Peabody.

My gut says there is one scum on the wagon and one off (presuming there is a 3 member scumteam). If it's only 2 (which I put at a less than 20% chance), scum is almost certainly off the wagon. This is why I will probably pursue a vote of someone off the Peabody wagon, like CoCo or Col.Cathart.

I still have more reading to do, but this is the majority of my thoughts so far.

[Hoopla]

Pertaining to Hoopla's post, and also @Hoopla: What you said is pretty convincing from the CoCo -> Peabody angle, but what CoCo said in response also makes sense... basically, what about from the Peabody -> CoCo angle? Peabody commented many times that he found CoCo suspicious, that he would be down for a CoCo lynch. I don't think Peabody would have held that belief overtly if he were CoCo's scummate. What do you think?

I agree it looks like a less likely pairing from this angle, mainly because of Peabody jumping on CoCo when his own lynch was becoming likelier. Usually this is a decent town indication - it's uncommon for scum to further an alternate wagon to their own on a partner. But it isn't totally out of the question. If Peabody genuinely thought he was going down, he could easily try to sew some fake interactions. We already have evidence of him attempting it with Vaya at the end of play.

If we had the perfect candidate that made sense from both ways of interaction, we would be lynching them now. CoCo's scummy play with Peabody outweighs the town probability from the other angle.

[Hoopla]

lurking

On this note, activity has dropped

right

off today. Are there exams coming up for people or something?

It's mainly Vaya missing. Sens and SC need to contribute something when they can.

[Hoopla]

Charter, you've been voting for Cathart all of this day. I'm still fuzzy on your reasoning behind it - can you help me out?

[Hoopla]

Good post Sens, but I agree with Vaya. I don't get how his lynch is going to be informative at all. On the off-chance he's scum and we discover Peabody was more cunning than we thought, I doubt that will improve our reads off Peabody's play. We can afford a policy-lynch today. CoCo and Vaya are good choices and probably shouldn't be left alive until lylo.

Reasons for CoCo: Scummy play from the CoCo --> Peabody angle, and otherwise generally difficult to read. Distorts arguments into semantics debates and generally is OMGUSsy.

Reasons for Vaya: Peabody's WIFOM and generally lurky and inactive.


Both are good choices, but I'd really prefer CoCo.

[Hoopla]

there's no way in Hell we can let her win as Scum at this point.

There's only winning and losing. I don't see how there's any difference (other than making for a good story afterwards) between letting Vaya win as scum and having someone else win as scum.

And while I the "we're going to lynch him eventually anyway" argument has some meric, the policy lynch argument is silly --

this would be the craziest policy lynch of all time.

The policy being advocated is letting a dying scum pick the lynch for the next day. Why on earth would we want to give scum that power?

Cam

This reminds me of a scenario in Mafia 88, where (town) Ectomancer proposed a strategy to counter a miller claim on D1 (here and here). In this case, the claim came at a time where it didn't make sense for scum, and was from a newish player. It was quite likely his claim was true, and Ecto's plan was to either lynch him now, or make a pact to not lynch him ever. This meant it was the mafia's problem to deal with.

It was mostly criticised and shut down - but it seems like it could have been a worthwhile investment. If the town only considered him to be a 5-10% chance of being scum, why not take the punt to save a lynch, and force scum's hand? It probably wasn't worthwhile in the long run for a game that size, but in a smaller game, the lynches have far more importance.

If the majority of people here strongly think Vaya is town, why not take a gamble on his alignment now? We could save a lynch and force scum to NK the wifom if we vowed to ignore it.

[Hoopla]

Vote: CoCo

[Hoopla]

I'm going to hold
off
until I can reread properly. I'm happier with a coco lynch ATM.

When are you going to be back playing properly?

[Hoopla]

If there is a 3 player scum team (and we have no reason to suspect an SK), 20% is par for everyone. Having a couple of suspects above 20% pushes down that par percentage for every other player. Some players dropping to 10% isn't that much of a stretch, especially after a scum lynch.

And that isn't even considering the possibility of a 2 player scum team. It's interesting that Peabody outed only one name. This makes the possibility of a 2-man scumteam likelier, in my opinion.

[Hoopla]

My theory is scum may have planned for such a thing. "If you get lynched, name a townie as scumbuddy."

I think that's a pretty stupid theory. If scum were going to plan for possible D1 scenarios, surely claiming a powerrole to prevent your own lynch and/or out another would be a better outcome for them. Claiming a scumbuddy guarentees your lynch and not necessarily a mislynch the next day. Claiming a powerrole can get a mislynch D1, and possibly out another role.

It's safe to assume it was a renegade gambit by a new player, thinking it was the right thing to do. Peabody's stable demeanor does not suggest a bitter player trying to ruin the game for a partner.

[Hoopla]

I'm really finding myself agreeing with a lot of what mathcam's saying today.

Vote: Sensfan

Its not that the logic behind my lynch is entirely bad, but I could very well see Sens-scum pushing for this lynch to buy scum an extra day. I was also thinking that it was odd how Sens seemed unfazed by any arguments about me being town or against Peabody's statement being a frustrated outburst.

I also agree with mathcam about CoCo. I believe that he's town and I'm against his lynch.

It irks me that SensFan is zeroing in on a policy lynch without considering any other options at all - I was kind of hoping for more from him. But in a sense, I can understand his point of view.

But Vaya shouldn't be the lynch today. I think it was mathcam that made the point about how if we're afraid of losing to a scum Vaya, and waste a lynch on him, we're just increasing our chances of losing to a different scum. Just because it's wifom, it doesn't mean the percentages can't be roughly quanitified. I do not see Vaya that likely of being scum (at least more so than CoCo or Cathart).

I'm slowly starting to hone in on those two.

[Hoopla]

I'm not sure how even I feel about this, but here's a third option: Ask Vaya to claim, and go from there. I don't think even Sens would claim to be dead-set on lynching Vaya (at least not today) if Vaya claimed a power role, or better a proveable role.

Cam

I think that is a sensible option. I'm probably in the 'leave him alive' camp, but this seems to be a compromise that works for both sides of the argument. If Vaya is a powerrole, give him another night to prove himself. This way we have a shot at confirming him, and if not, there's a chance scum will deal with the problem at night.

[Hoopla]

Wow, a lot of activity today. I have to say, on a cosmetic read of the thread, I believe Vaya a lot more than I believe Cathart's claim.

I'm not impressed with Vaya's self-vote and I know it's wifom again, but why on earth would scum give up that easily after losing a buddy on Day 1? I still support the plan on making a pact now - I can't see him as scum.

I'm fairly sure Cathart is at L-1, so I will do a better reread before I contemplate hammering.

[Hoopla]

Cyberbob, when would you consider lynching him? There is no advantage in keeping him alive. If he is town, his role will give us no more info if we let him live longer. If he is scum, like I said, he's probably a roleblocker. It's not like if he was an information role, where we should keep him alive another night. His role is 100% unconfirmable and gives town no information.

I don't see why this claim is believable to you and why you don't want to lynch him today.

I'm with charter. His role isn't confirmable, if we don't believe it, we should lynch him - as he does not provide any information. In fact, the roleblocking could work as a double-edged sword and prevent town powerroles finding something.

Doctors themself aren't that powerful as roles, they have a slim chance of stopping a kill. And we left him alive and he did stop a kill, we would probably assume it was no-kill gambit to solidify a fake-claim. I don't see any way out of this for Cathart.

Keeping him alive and waiting for scum to take him out (if we believed him) isn't a great option, as they have little to fear from him, and especially since they know so many people suspect him.

--

le Chat was promising a catch up post, so I'll let him do so before I hammer.

[Hoopla]

I hate Vaya's attitude. Like someone said in another game I'm in somewhere once, scummyness is a sink or swim business, and when you stop defending yourself (swimming) you start to look scummy (sinking). I really hate how you are just kinda rolling over and accepting this wifom thing and acknowledging opinions that you are a good lynch target. If you're town then you know you're confirmed town to yourself and then advocating your own lynch is like advocating a lynch on a confirmed townie like if you were a cop and got an inno and then lynched him. =| see

Accepting your lynch and giving up defending tends to be a personality-tell, rather than alignment. Both mafia and town don't want to be lynched. Cathart made the point, if we're going to ignore the wifom and let Vaya live, he really needs to start pulling his weight and contribute as town, otherwise a policy-lynch starts to look more attractive.

--

As for the rest of your post, it feels quite wishy-washy. I'd rather you made definitive assessments on Vaya and Cathart.

Who is your prefered lynch out of Vaya and Cathart?
Would you hammer Cathart if I wasn't going to vote him?

[Hoopla]

i wouldnt hammer if you didnt. i think we can still look at more people toDay.

And what if they then claimed a powerrole? Who would you lynch then? Even if Cathart is truthful, his role isn't that helpful to the town in his situation.

I've heard enough today, so I'm gonna drop the hammer now.

Vote: Cathart

[Hoopla]

Charter = scum.

Based on what?

--

Also, coward I presume is a Hider. I've never played in a game with either, and there seems to be a few variations.

Does this mean Sens targetted mafia?

[Hoopla]

I'll add that an astute reader should pay attention to my beef with an early bandwagon...

What does that even mean? You're just as guilty of flip-flopping suspicions - take your 180 on Peabody during D1, and OMGUS to almost everyone that has accussed you.

You're still my prime suspect going into today, and I'll be rallying for your lynch once more.

--

It's interesting Sens', the most vocal advocate for Vaya's lynch, was killed last night. Looks like another layer of wifom to sift through.

[Hoopla]

....what? Why did you just claim? We still have 8 players alive with one scum down, we're not even close to lylo yet.

[Hoopla]

We didn't make a conclusive decision on Vaya yesterday. It has to be today or never. I'd rather gamble on never. The kill on Sens feels like a scum-bluff, to entice town into lynching Vaya. Everyone needs to take a side on the Vaya debate in their next post.

In the mean time,

vote: CoCo

[Hoopla]

Actually,

unvote

.

Now that we know Cathart did block Vaya night one, but the kill still went through, I'm not too sure. I want to go back and reread and see what that turns up.

Very good point. Even in a 3-player scumteam, there is a 50% chance it would have been stopped. Although, I don't know if Vaya would be more likely to send the kill than his partner (if he is scum).

I think he would, as it was a good chance he was going down anyway. Why would you risk your partner being caught tracked or watched on the night kill?

[Hoopla]

No way would I let Vaya do the kill if I was his scumpartner. He'd be WAY too likely to draw role investigation.

Possibly - it's more guesswork though.

What I am worried about is if Vaya and/or CoCo aren't scum, it lets scum almost coast to victory unchallenged. Does it not bother anyone else that these convenient lynches are being followed by almost everyone? It just seems too obvious.

[Hoopla]

Wait, so you'd be comfortable having CoCo alive in lylo?

After claiming vanilla town for no reason, and generally being a nuisance, what incentive is there for scum to kill him? This isn't mentioning his scummy antics. He will either need to be lynched or left alive throughout the game. Although they probably both aren't scum, I would personally take my chances on Vaya being town, rather than CoCo.

Either way, I think we almost have to lynch one of these two today before it gets too late. It should be CoCo though.

[Hoopla]

The wiki says that a Coward is the same thing as a hider. It makes sense. I don't believe it's a survivor. Sens's play was not very smart if he was a survivor. We definitely need to see if he breadcrumbed who he was going to hide behind, since it's possible he was killed because he hid behind scum. I'll attempt to reread for clues tonight.

I flicked through Sens' Day 2 posts and couldn't find any signifigant hints as to who he would target. But if he died from hiding behind scum, where did the scum kill go?

[Hoopla]

I could live with a CoCo lynch today, though if we don't lynch Vaya I really do expect that he lifts his game with regards to his lurking. If he is in fact town this is something he should

want

to do anyway.

What are your thoughts on charter, by the way?

Yes, but would you be comfortable with having CoCo alive in lylo? Say we don't lynch Vaya and CoCo back-to-back, it becomes a very real possibility of having either of them alive in lylo, if we don't hit scum.

Would you rather have Vaya or CoCo alive in a lylo situation?

--

As for charter, I still have a town read on him, but certainly not as strong now because of the Cathart/Peabody ties on D1. He's worth looking at, but we

really

need to make some clear, solid plans on what to do with CoCo and Vaya.

[Hoopla]

Hmm...I expected a little bit more commotion about the fact that I am against both CoCo and Vaya lynches today, at least for the time being.

Cam

Why? It makes sense. I've aired my concerns about the possibility of back-to-back CoCo/Vaya lynches - but you can't really just fabricate pressure from nowhere. If you don't think either of Vaya/CoCo are scum, your scum reads on every other player must be slightly higher than random.

I suggest you pursue other avenues of attack if you're unhappy with a Vaya/CoCo lynch. It worries me slightly that a player of your caliber has almost no scum read after 4 alignment flips (including one scum).

[Hoopla]

Although really, you were only on the Peabody wagon after he confessed to being scum. So, as far as I can tell, you're in almost the same position as charter.

[Hoopla]

It is, when the point you're using to incriminate charter, you're almost guilty of. The only reason you got on to Peabody's lynch was because you were online when he confessed. I have no doubt everyone else would have hammered if they saw the confession before you.

[Hoopla]

Well, this game seems to be spluttering along, lets pick up the pace. It's nice charter has catched up - but I'm also going to temporarily divert to a le Chat wagon. Charter's read on le Chat is spot on. He's been mostly non-committal when he has been around, and I don't recall too many serious attempts at scumhunting.

Vote: le Chat

[Hoopla]

In most situations I've encountered, a two-player scum team is usually caused by the presence of an SK. I see no evidence to suggest one here. Therefore, I see know reason to suspect two scum.

I've seen a few games with only two scum, but these are usually off-set by weak town powerroles.

Something against the idea of a two-man scumteam this game, is the power that has already flipped for the town so far. A hider can be quite a useful role to confirm town, and a doctor/RB is something that can be more than useful. The 2:10 games I've seen have either been all vanilla, or at max one town powerrole.

For this game to have 2 scum there would need to be some detrimental town-roles (think PGO, paranoid/naive cop etc.) or the two scum would both need to be powered. Both are unlikely, despite the original game starting with only two.

[Hoopla]

To continue, ESPECIALLY with Peabody flipping Goon - what possible role could the other mafia have (if there were only 2) to balance against a doc/RB and a hider? You'd need at least 1/2 detrimental town roles to even come close to balancing it.

[Hoopla]

yeah im in atlanta right now and ive got court early in the morning

Uh oh, what did you do?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, got a scumlist?

Like mathcam and a couple of others, my thoughts probably aren't up to date, and I owe the thread a reread. This is where my thoughts lie now though;

I'm still up for a CoCo lynch - he seems to vanish as soon as he isn't in the spotlight any more, and I've already illustrated his ties with Peabody on D1. It seems everyone forgot his claim under no pressure earlier in the day, also.

I'm not sold on the charter case yet, but I don't think he is as town as I once thought. The key points seem to be his theory Cathart and Peabody are buddies, but with a reluctance to settle on Peabody. I remember charter being most vocal for Cathart's head - I can understand scum motives behind this play, to set up a mislynch in case Peabody goes.

I've had mostly neutral feelings toward SC, but he is one I definitely want to reread in greater detail. Like he said himself, the fact flipped-town Tally was most suspicious of him, and his appearance on Cathart's wagon, and only being on Peabody's after his implosion isn't a brilliant voting record. More to come on this.

I still think mathcam and Cyberbob are town, but Cyberbob's all-day Peabody vote still irks me for some reason. Vaya is probably town too, but I'm disappointed he hasn't contributed much almost all game.

I'm also unsure of le Chat. The thing that immediately springs to mind is being non-commital, but I owe a reread on his play.


I'll be back soon!

[Hoopla]

Appologies everyone, I've become lazy with this game. I intend to rectify this problem immediately. Expect more from me shortly.

[Hoopla]

Firstly, I don't think my vote belongs on le Chat at the moment. It is hypocritical of me to have my vote on him for activity-related reasons, so this will be my first act today.

Unvote

--

Next, I'd like to articulate some of my reads, which I feel people are a bit fuzzy about. I generally think I am better at town-hunting and using process of elimination to find scum - this game is no exception.

I'm confident enough with Vaya being town, despite his low activity. I've recently played in another game with him, and seen a couple of his others. He has a tendancy to lurk regardless of alignment, so I don't think his lack of scumhunting is incriminating.

With Cathart blocking Vaya, there is enough reason to believe Vaya would have made the kill in most scumteams, even though it's looking like there is 3. After Peabody's gambit it went straight to night - scum would not know how the town would react to it. It's possible they could have thought Vaya would be a likely lynch the next day, and wouldn't want to risk a tracker/watcher role catching the other member. It is wifom, but there is enough reason to believe Vaya is town.

--

I'm satisfied with my town read on Cyberbob too - as SC mentioned, he was the one driving the game through it's low activity and sifting through his posts, I cannot find much that bothers me, outside his one vote D1 on scum, which is not signifigant enough on it's own.

--

These two players are town enough in my mind to decrease the possible scum pool to SC, charter, mathcam, le Chat and CoCo, who I deem as more scummy than average by contrast. CoCo I deem slightly more suspicious than the collective pool average, while mathcam is slightly less. I will elaborate some more of my thoughts soon - I just want to get some content down in the mean time in case anyone wants to interact with me.

[Hoopla]

Well posting is a little hard when waiting on someone.

Is anyone prepared to stick up for le chat in absense of other discussion?

I'm not overly fussed about a le Chat lynch, but I'll defs back Cyberbob in a CoCo lynch. It still is the most sensible option.

[Hoopla]

Don't get me wrong, I'd shed no tears after a CoCo lynch. It's just to me that the evidence on him is, given his playstyle, very subjective. I think most of us at some point in the game have gone from being pretty sure he's town to pretty sure he's scum, or vice versa. I remember Day 1 Hoopla was a big CoCo champion. Subjective is still better than non-existent, though, so that's something.

Cam

I know you and Cyberbob has covered this over the last few posts about what constitutes objective evidence and the value of scum reads, but an important variable that factors in to my lynch choices is value to town. If someone doesn't have the capacity (or will) to think critically and analyse well in the event of endgame scenarios for town, they're a worthwhile lynch.

Like you, I don't rate my own personal scumreads too highly. I feel I have a more realistic judgement of the probable percentages of someone being scum, than a lot of people, and the margin is slimmer than most would like to believe. Many that claim to have great scum/townhunting abilities are likelier to have selective memory when it comes to their previous outings.

I'd like CoCo lynched because of his inability to play logically - I usually love erratic playstyles, but there still needs to be a core of logic underneath the persona. I don't trust CoCo in an endgame scenario as town, and I don't like the pattern developing with CoCo mostly posting when he comes under fire.

I think there is a reasonable chance of him being scum.

[Hoopla]

So what do you think about the fact that a hider SensFan would almost certainly not (imo) have hid with CoCo?

Cam

I'd suggest we're almost certainly playing in a 3-scum set-up, so I guess it does lower his chances, but doesn't clear him. I think it's an ominous task trying to pick where Sens hid - I could realistically see him hiding behind you, Cyberbob, le Chat or even possibly SC. I think le Chat would be the slight favourite out of this group.

What about the possibility of something else, ie; Sens failing to submit an action, or him being roleblocked?

--

Ooh, look at all the new people we have.

[Hoopla]

I am pretty sure that in every setup hider resolves before just about everything (if not everything) else, so roleblocking doesn't seem plausible to me. Not submitting an action is obviously possible/probable.

Oh wait, Kublai's rules say that if no action is made, choice is randomized, so I guess that throws that out the window.

Who do you think Sens would have hid behind?

[Hoopla]

What about the possibility that he chose not to hide that night and scum killed him?

Hi replacements, thanks mod!!

I don't know why you would bother not hiding. It's a pretty handy town-confirmer.

The only real possibilities I see is Sens targetting scum, and scum targetting Sens.

Or Sens targetting scum, and scum killing someone else but being stopped somehow.

[Hoopla]

I'm sorry. Full player lists for the sake of full player lists don't really work for me. I prefer not to talk about my town reads unless there's some definite advantage to doing so (which will outweigh painting a nk bullseye on their backs). Right now I don't see how it would do anyone any good.

I prefer having people ask me questions about specific players, or better yet, specific actions and events. That way we can have an exchange of information---you get to find out what I think, and I get to find out what kind of things you most want to know. That way, if someone wants to fish for my opinion on a certain player, they have to ask for it right out in the open where everyone can see it.

I think the supposed downfall of players 'painting targets' on townies for NK's is a load of rubbish. Scum aren't brainless morons (usually), playing a different game to us. They can sense who has a town-presence amongst the group - don't you when you're scum?

Only talking about your scum reads gives you immense personal wriggle-room for later in the game, as you have no previous opinions you need to correct or restate. I'd rather the entire town declare the entirity of their thinking, than keeping tricks up their sleeve. Scum players like to have options.

[Hoopla]

Here's an example of the kind of post I respond well to: can anyone besides Cyberbob show me an example of a post they have made where they've given reasons to lynch CoCo other than the fact that he was a VI?

In other words, can anyone make an actual case, or is this a lynch of laziness/policy?

I'll bite - here is a post I made on Day 2, which pretty much still stands in regards to CoCo, although he is less scummy due to Sens probably not hiding behind him.

I'm still at odds about what to do with CoCo. For those opposed to the 'easy lynch', do you think he would act any differently as scum? The facts are he defended Peabody on multiple occasions, especially early for the random vote thing (see here: 1, 2, 3, 4)

After this early foray of defenses, he decides to iso-read Peabody and conveniently does a 180 and jumps on with the L-1 vote. I know everyone is finding it difficult to read CoCo, but this is a signifigant enough piece of evidence - especially when he rarely, if ever defended any other player. It seems to me he was trying to deter suspicion on Peabody early, then as it became increasingly likely he was going to be lynched, he had to somehow change his views to jump on and gain some town credit.

This theory is also quantified by the way he acted toward my early bandwagon. You'll note he was on edge when my wagon reached 4 and 5 votes. I think a similar thing happened when Peabody reached the same mark, he genuinely felt his Peabody's lynch was inevitable, and had to change his views knowing what Peabody would flip.

This smorgasbord of evidence is enough for me to think he is probably scum. This does not even include points I posted throughout D1 (such as bringing up his own two-game meta to try and defend himself, and his late flip-flopping on Peabody).

So, my question to those who don't think CoCo is scum is; what would CoCo have to do, for you to consider lynching him? Despite being anti-town, people only oppose his lynch because it seems too obvious. This is a bad trap to fall into as it allows him to get away with anything that could be construed as lying or a scumtell. The lynches become more important each day, and we don't want to be in a situation where he is alive in Lylo.

What do you think, mister?

[Hoopla]

This theory is also quantified by the way he acted toward my early bandwagon. You'll note he was on edge when my wagon reached 4 and 5 votes. I think a similar thing happened when Peabody reached the same mark, he genuinely felt his Peabody's lynch was inevitable, and had to change his views knowing what Peabody would flip.

Got more, actually.

This doesn't really make any sense. Why would the fact that he responded the same way to a (let's assume) townie wagon as what turned out to be a scum wagon

In other words, you seem to be saying that his thought process was similar both times---but why would he react the same way to a townie wagon as to his partner's wagon?

If he really thought you were going to be lynched, why would he worry about it if he were scum? If he were, he'd know you were town (assuming you are) and would be glad to see you lynched on page 2 or 3 or whatever it was. Why wouldn't he have just watched it from the sidelines and waited for the quicklynch he was sure was inevitable?

I think you misinterpreted how I was using that information. I was saying CoCo felt antsy around L-2 and L-1 situations and seemed as if he genuinely felt there was a good chance of it being a lynch.

His 180 came when Peabody was close to lynch - changing his position completely, effectively binning everything he once thought about Peabody, to now find him suspicious. It looks to me as if he thought his partner was going down, and didn't want to get caught defending him.

I was using the example of my bandwagon at the start of play to illustrate CoCo's jitters around near-lynch scenarios - not to compare reactions.

[Hoopla]

For those that still think it is possible there is only a 2-scum team, please balance a hypothetical set-up with 2 scum and coward/hot nurse as the bare minimum town powerroles.

[Hoopla]

Cam, VI = Village Idiot.

[Hoopla]

charter ----> <---- Raskol

. . . . . .

Cyberbob --->

Hoopla ---->

[Hoopla]

Hoopla - the gesture attributed to you in your emoticon summary either didn't fit the situation or it means somethign MUCH different in Australia..

There's a 'down under' joke in there somewhere, but I doubt I'm eloquent enough to piece one together. I'll get back to you about it later.

[Hoopla]

Rats, I feel like every time I catch up and get ahead of pace I come back to find myself lingering behind the curve. I'd like to point out it generally doesn't help having two/three players resorting to typing contests. For one, it's frustrating to sift between emotional outbursts and genuine information. And two, it forces the other half of players into 'catch up mode' automatically. Please consider this next time you have multi-page arguments, because a lot of the time, players caught behind will not read into your arguments as much as those involved.

A concise, even spread of posting really does improve the town's chances - but this obviously isn't always realistic with different timezones, and time available. But please, less typing contests, and more succinctness.

--

I'm going to alter my stance and swap to DDD. I'm starting to come around to mathcam's logic that chasing the hider's target is probably the best prediction we can make.

The heated exchanges between Raskol and charter seem very genuine to me, and I would be roundly surprised if they were both scum. I can easily see them being both town or one of each. I'm not sure if there is any winner coming from it - I've played with charter before, and generally associate aggressiveness with his town game. It isn't a strong read, but it's enough to keep him out of my immediate radar.

I also agree with this quote;

The problem when people handle themselves well against emotionally-charged attacks is that the attack is counter-productive -- I'm less eager to lynch Raskol than I was at the start of the day. Whereas DDD has made some fairly scummy posts, the attack on Raskol seems to be based primarily on his philosophy of the game.

I think a lot Raskol's suspicion has stemmed from differing philosophy, rather than any play inherently scummy. It does not make up for CoCo's previous ties with Peabody, which is the core of reasoning behind a Raskol lynch, rather than the posts he's made since he has taken over.

But I want to take a punt on Sens hiding behind le Chat. I think oddities such as le Chat's early reluctance to vote, and some of his noncommittal play makes more sense as scum, so I consider him a decent bet.

Sorry if my thoughts are a little scrambled, I just wanted to post something to get back into the game.

Vote: DDD

[Hoopla]

Ninja'd by Hoopla... ugh. I can see reasons for voting DDD over Raskol, but none of the ones she chose to go with are ones I agree with.

What are your reasons?

[Hoopla]

I'm going to alter my stance and swap to DDD. I'm starting to come around to mathcam's logic that chasing the hider's target is probably the best prediction we can make.

Let's see we have a no breadcrumbs from Sens as far as anyone has been able to identify let alone him targeting le chat. Furthermore, Sens is well-known for his erratic play so trying to guess what was on his mind at the time seems like a fools errand.

I know Sens is erratic, but it doesn't mean he is stupid. He is not going to hide behind his scum reads - this almost certainly means he didn't hide behind CoCo, which is the fundamental reason why I am not chasing that lynch. It lowers Raskol's odds of being scum enough to counter my suspicion on him. He also wouldn't have hid behind Vaya.

Independent of the hider guessing, le Chat's play is scummy enough to be in my top 2 choices for lynch.

[Hoopla]

charter: flicking through your posts in iso, I could only find this directly referencing the hider situation in regards to CoCo/Raskol;

Just a general comment: I'm totally fine not drawing any conclusions about who Sens

did

hide with it, but I do think it's pretty clear that he

wouldn't

have hid with CoCo. I have a mental picture of a hider has not being able to choose not to hide, but I think my knowledge of hiders may be several years out of date. If that was an option, I definitely see Sens not hiding as a possibility, though I tend to agree with Hoopla that you might as well...especially if you can work in a breadcrumb beforehand.

Ah, ok, I see what you're saying. Yes, hiding behind Coco doesn't seem possible without an obvious breadcrumb.

To expand on my last post, Raskol comes in replacing one of the scummy players, who seemed to make it his personal mission to create havoc, and only mentions the other big lynch contender, le Chat. And this is a really really small mention too, and didn't say anything new. I have absolutely no idea what he thinks about anything else in the game. I asked him to provide some more, but he gets all defensive saying that it only helps scum. Not true, and at the least, very very anti town of him. Basically Raskol came in and jumped on the biggest wagon and hasn't said two words about anyone else. Unacceptable and scummy.

How strong is your Raskol read, really? You're acknowledging the fact Sens probably didn't hide behind CoCo. This means Raskol can only be one scum (the one Sens didn't hide behind). Most other players have two chances of being scum (the one Sens hid behind, and the one he didn't).

Wouldn't it make more sense to after your next best scumread that has possibilities of being both scum? I find it hard to believe your read on Raskol is so strong it's worth going for, if he can only be one scum.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, my Raskol read is ridiculously strong. Just because Sens didn't hide behind Coco, doesn't mean Coco isn't scum. For all we know, Sens didn't hide, and I'm not buying in to lynching someone who Sens could have hid behind over someone who is almost assuredly scum.

I really think you're overvaluing your reads. You'd effictively need Raskol to be twice as scummy as anyone else for it to be a viable choice. That is very difficult with mostly subjective information at hand.

--

So, for Hoopla, mathcam, Socrates:

1. How much would you be willing to trust me tomorrow if Danny flips town today?

2. How much would you be willing to trust Danny tomorrow if I flip town today?

If you think my flip would narrow your scum pool down than Danny's flip, then by all means, lynch me today. The worst thing that could possibly happen imo would be to lynch one of us without getting a soft-confirm on the other one.

Erm, I really don't think it's as simple as that. Both of these scenarios are far from soft-confirming either of you. I might be missing a piece of logic crucial to your reasoning (I'm still not completely up-to-date). Can you explain this to me?

[Hoopla]

Wait, so you'd be comfortable having CoCo alive in lylo?

After claiming vanilla town for no reason, and generally being a nuisance, what incentive is there for scum to kill him? This isn't mentioning his scummy antics. He will either need to be lynched or left alive throughout the game. Although they probably both aren't scum, I would personally take my chances on Vaya being town, rather than CoCo.

Either way, I think we almost have to lynch one of these two today before it gets too late.

It should be CoCo though.

Hoopla - both Vaya and CoCo should be regarded as 'half value' scum reads (vaya beacuse of roleblocker not blocking a kill and CoCo because Sens probably died on a different scum).

You said the above paragraph earlier today. What changed?

CoCo/Raskol is still scummy - please don't get me wrong there. Some of my reason for a CoCo lynch was policy, but Raskol replacing in (eliminating CoCo) quells that player slot's lynch value.

It was never my choice for a Vaya lynch at all really. I believe this was around the time we were still discussing leaving Vaya alive indefinitely. If we weren't prepared to do that, lynching him sooner rather than later was ideal (despite it not being my personal choice). Multiple players were uneasy with Vaya alive - and if I couldn't get a pact to ignore wifom, I deemed it in the interests of the town to lynch him now.

Everyone seems to have not really bothered with him now, which suits me fine, because I think he is town.

--

Hoopla, charter - what do you think of each other's play so far and likely alignment?

Of charter? I still think he's town.

[Hoopla]

Oh my god, this is such a mentally draining game. It seems every time we get close to a lynch we pussy out and have to put someone new under pressure.

While I'm rereading I'd like to point out how assumptive SC's theory is. Creating a process of elimination which is heavily dependant on unknown alignments not being scum together seems like a recipe for disaster.

We should not be lynching by a plan riddled with leaps of logic and from a player who is relatively scummy. The only way this plan could even be considered looked at is if we lynched SC and he flipped town, so we know his motivations were pure, because at the moment I am not convinced.

[Hoopla]

SC, you state in your theory that CoCo and le Chat cannot be scum together, but then also say this;

So if I assumed coco and le chat are town

, then mathcam has to be and vaya is as well, plus I'm town. So we're left with

Why aren't you acknowledging the possibility of one of CoCo/le Chat being scum with someone else, rather than whittling down the scumpair to Hoopla/Cyberbob/charter? How are both automatically town in your mind? It seems quite unusual when both these players are the owners of the largest wagons today.

[Hoopla]

I address that in 1312.

If raskol is town, ddd has been pretty ballsy in not going for the self preservation.

So, you see this as unlikely? I think it would be a feasible scum tactic to try and smash the Raskol wagon, rather than jump on it with bad reasons. This gains town credit and increases the likelihood of generating a wagon elsewhere.

[Hoopla]

If vaya and CoCo are town, mathcam is town.

I also missed your reasoning for this. How does this make cam town?

[Hoopla]

Why is generating a wagon elsewhere a good idea? If the raskol lynch is derailed, he was the obvious next step. Even when raskol was voting him he didn't counter, and he was upfront about his plans and target when I asked him about them. Seems town to me.

As for cam, hard to find on the phone but at one point we had an almost inevitable coco vs vaya argument that he broke up. If they are both town, massive town tell for cam.

He would be the obvious next step if (town) Raskol was lynched too. It would be a better long-term survival plan if he attempted and succeeded in getting a lynch elsewhere. He the gets town points if Raskol flips town at any stage.

--

To be fair, your theory is better than I originally gave it credit for, but not by much. My main issue is the sheer amount of assumptions it works off. And although a lot of them are seemingly unlikely to be wrong, if just one is, your entire theory comes down like a house of cards.

These aren't the odds, but imagine if all your assumptions carried a 90% chance of being right (which is I think generous), 4-5 assumptions means there is a decent chance of one being wrong. Offer a 1/10 chance continuously, it'll be hit eventually. Then also include the possibility of you being scum, and it does not become a viable theory.

If it at some stage you flip town, and a couple other variables have proved to be true, it would certainly be worthwhile looking at your suggestion. I say that even knowing I am one of those in the firing line.

[Hoopla]

To nitpick - even five 90% chances is still 60% of being right, and if I'm right I crack the game wide open from a bad place. But that's facetious, I understand you were using that as an example only.

But if you're wrong, you nearly lose the game from a winning place. Isn't five 1/10 chances, 50%?

--

Hoopla - give me some feasible scum teams? Mos of the ones I think of contain you, sorry to say.

To be honest, I haven't thought extensively about likely partners just yet, but I think there are far more possibilities than the ones you've narrowed it down to.

[Hoopla]

I still hold that every flip is crucial and a no lynch with just about anyone dead, including myself, would help confirm or deny the theory or otheris narrow down the possibilities with only minor detriment.

Just something else to add that I don't think I talked about. No lynch is absolutely stupid. Despite your theory having little to no town support, even if we no lynched on this basis, do you think scum would be stupid enough to kill someone that contradicted your theory if the scumteam wasn't Hoopla, charter or Cyberbob?

This wouldn't improve your theory's credibility at all, with the only thing happening is losing another town member. We might as well do that by lynching, with the added bonus of possibily hitting scum (yay).

[Hoopla]

I still hold that every flip is crucial and a no lynch with just about anyone dead, including myself, would help confirm or deny the theory or otheris narrow down the possibilities with only minor detriment.

Just something else to add that I don't think I talked about. No lynch is absolutely stupid. Despite your theory having little to no town support, even if we no lynched on this basis, do you think scum would be stupid enough to kill someone that contradicted your theory if the scumteam wasn't Hoopla, charter or Cyberbob?

This wouldn't improve your theory's credibility at all, with the only thing happening is losing another town member. We might as well do that by lynching, with the added bonus of possibily hitting scum (yay).

Not pushing no lynch, but I wanted to point out that at this point, anyone that could be killed by scum would contradict

someone's

scum theory.

Yes, but the only possible reason we'd even consider no lynching is if we believed SC's theory of the game, and planned to follow his lead.

[Hoopla]

I think I can safely say, this is the first time I've ever seen a case based on balls.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla has done nothing to confirm or deny her current suspicions, and it seems like she's hanging on to the DDD vote for the same reason I didn't - because it's safe and easy and won't get you votes. I'd like Hoopla to go over why she's voting for DDD again and ask whether her views on him have been influenced over the past 5 days. Hoopla's reaction to my theory was off as well. SHe was by far the most receptive in tone, conceding that it was better than she had thought and even claiming to possibly get behind it even though she was in the firing line, but only if she knew my intentions were pure. Well, one lynch down puts us at lylo and that makes things much harder to orchestrate. Plus, if I'm dead then lynchbait DDD and raskol are still around and they're likely to provide easy targets away from the theory.

I've explained my reasoning for swapping to DDD. I've explained why Raskol probably isn't the best lynch. I'm getting tired of whenever someone gets close to lynch, someone jumps up and decides we need another 5 pages of debating about the same things.

You seem upset with me because I'm not taking an overly controversial position. Here is my controversial position then: I've had enough of talking, and I think a lot of others are too. Mini Normals should not run for 60+ pages. I'm going to vote DDD, and I'm not going to bother analysing the recent 2 pages or so of debating. I could be persuaded to vote SC because I think his theory is bogus and a distraction from the Raskol/DDD wagons. Please can we lynch someone.

[Hoopla]

I think he's at L-1, but don't hammer just yet. I do want the day to end but not quite this fast.

So, you want me to check in before we kill? As I've said, I wanted to kill DDD or SC, with a preference for DDD. Votes flying around in the last two pages have been interesting. Everyone flipflopping near the end of the day makes me think we don't have much chance of lynching scum, when everyone seems willing to vote 2-3 or 4 different people.

Scrambled lynches don't work out well for town, it's a shame it's come to this. I'm prepared to hammer SC though.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: SerialClergyman

[Hoopla]

I think massclaim is a sensible idea. But we should wait and see if we should no-lynch. We need to decide what order to claim in also.

[Hoopla]

I'm a Jack of All Trades - (cop/doc/RB/vig - one of each)

Night 1: Investigate Sens --> Innocent
Night 2: Protected Cyberbob
Night 3: Attempted to vig DDD


I'm really surprised by all these double roles - like charter, having a semi-matching role with Cathart made me suspect about his claim.

Oh and here are my breadcrumbs;

It irks me that

SensFan

is zeroing in on a policy lynch without considering any other options at all - I was kind of hoping for more from him. But

in a sense

, I can understand his point of view.

But Vaya shouldn't be the lynch today. I think it was mathcam that made the point about how if we're afraid of losing to a scum Vaya, and waste a lynch on him, we're just increasing our chances of losing to a different scum. Just because it's wifom, it doesn't mean the percentages can't be roughly quanitified. I do not see Vaya that likely of being scum (at least more so than CoCo or Cathart).

I'm slowly starting to hone in on those two.

I think he's at L-1, but don't hammer just yet. I do want the day to end but not quite this fast.

S

o, you want me to check in before we kill?

A

s I've said, I wanted to kill DDD or SC, with a preference for DDD.

V

otes flying around in the last two pages have been interesting.

E

veryone flipflopping near the end of the day makes me think we don't have much chance of lynching scum, when everyone seems willing to vote 2-3 or 4 different people.

Scrambled lynches don't work out well for town, it's a shame it's come to this. I'm prepared to hammer SC though.

[Hoopla]

Initial feeling says we can probably clear someone out of this, but there's a lot of information to deal with. I'm going to think about it for a bit and come back.

[Hoopla]

DDD: What was your reasoning for targetting mathcam last night?

Cyberbob: Claim your night 3 results please.

[Hoopla]

Of all the players left he was the one I had the weakest read on (in either direction). When I play investigative roles those are the people I tend to go for in the later stages of a game.

What made you take the gamble on Socrates? You know he was roleblocked on N1 by Cathart, and a kill still went through. And considering he was one of the least suspicious characters out there, it seems like a very odd choice. It reeks of scum opportunism in mylo, which goes nicely with your other relatively safe results.

[Hoopla]

Vaya/Socrates has already claimed vanilla....like Day 2...

[Hoopla]

Yeah, really need to hear from Socrates now. Looks like Cyberbob or Socrates is scum though.

[Hoopla]

I've never breadcrumbed before - how exactly do my breadcrumbs look like they've just been made up?

[Hoopla]

WAIT! That doesn't necessarily incriminate Hoopla as since both DDD and Hoopla have claimed blocked actions, so even if one is lying there is still probably a scum roleblocker.

Scum probably DO have a roleblocker, and Cyberbob is trying to make me out to be him. Was anyone blocked night 1? That would shoot that theory down right now, as I was roleblocked myself then.

Half the town is dead. Anyone could have been roleblocked on night 1 and taken it to the grave. Or a vanilla could have been blocked.

Anyways, I want hoopla's explanations for night three since she claimed to try and kill me and yet I'm still alive. After that I think I'll have enough information to lay everything on the table.

Are you wondering why I chose to vig you? Or why you aren't dead when I targetted you? If it's the latter, I can't answer you, but my best explaination is a scum roleblocker out there, which I'm starting to think is Cyberbob.

[Hoopla]

I'm worried about DDD's two kill attempts. Roleblocked N2 - unless there are multiple roleblockers out there (unlikely), both DDD and Cyberbob are claiming to be blocked then which is fishy.

Then claiming a mathcam kill when I'm almost certain the roleblock went on me. It rules out the possibility of DDD being blocked, and means he must have targetted mathcam. But then where did the scumkill go? It's possible it was on mathcam too (it really was only DDD finding him scummy) - or Socrates, which would mean charter was truthful. Or DDD is scum, and the mathcam kill was a scumkill.
--

I don't think Raskol is scum, and I feel okay with charter's claim so far, but I don't want to rule him out yet.

[Hoopla]

I wish I wrote it down, cause I don't remember now. I think it was something to do with wondering if mathcam was targeted for a kill night two as well. When Sens died, and I realized what a coward was, I immediately thought mathcam was town (since I was relatively sure there couldn't be more than two doctors, but it seems I am mistaken).

I protected Cyberbob Night 2, and after seeing Sens flip coward immediately came to the same conclusion as you did toward mathcam, because there was no other death.

Hoopla, why vig DDD?

He was my choice of target yesterday for lynch, despite settling for an SC in the end. That bolstered my suspicion of DDD mainly because for SC's theory to be true, it mean that you and Cyberbob had to be scum together, which I saw as exceedingly unlikely considering my save on Cyberbob N2 and a soft town read on you. I didn't think Socrates was scum, and I wasn't for a Raskol lynch - DDD was my only real choice. I'm still decently sure he is scum.

[Hoopla]

DDD, why did you kill mathcam after you saw Serial flip town?

My read wasn't dependent on them being teammates so SC's flip didn't alleviate my suspicions of mathcam at all, they were simply the most scummy to me, clearly I read that wrong.

~~~

Anyways, time to put this one away and apolgies to SC for not believing him, the scum team is Cyberbob and Hoopla because I was roleblocked BOTH night two and night three. I know what you're thinking, how do you know that you were blocked N3 when mathcam died and you targeted him with a vig kill? Because I recieved a PM from the mod stating that much and when I asked about le chat's night actions his night two kill had a note next to it that it was also blocked. The fact that Cyberbob and Hoopla both claimed to be roleblocked on seperate nights, but neither recieved confirmation tells me that neither of them was actually roleblocked. I'm 100% sure Hoopla is scum because of this and 99% sure Cyberbob is scum.

Vote: Cyberbob

Wow, I'm kind of surprised how brazen this is. You've essentially outed yourself as scum to me, and Cyberbob possibly (unless this is a scum gambit with a Cyberbob/DDD team) - although it makes me think the likeliest scenario is a DDD/Socrates scumteam, with DDD putting it all on the line for my lynch or Cyberbob's.

This narrows it down a lot for the town. I'm eager to see what everyone else makes of this.

[Hoopla]

K, thought it through.

Vote: no lynch

This absolutely needs to happen. I will explain tomorrow.

How is no-lynch going to improve our position?

[Hoopla]

Well, I will say at least this: it has a much better chance of helping our position if I don't explain how it helps our position.

So, we just go out on a limb and blindly trust you? Even if your intentions are pure, they could still be wrong and costly. And what if you were to die?

[Hoopla]

I am also sad that Hoopla did not say what role she was last game.

Sorry - I was a cop. How is this helpful?

[Hoopla]

So anyway, Charter and I really are cleared now. It's now pretty obvious that the scumteam is either Cyberbob/Hoopla or Danny/Socrates.

On the bright side, this means we only have to make the right choice once. After that, no need to worry overmuch about who the scumpartner is.

Barring an elaborate gambit by DDD where he is Cyberbob's buddy, bussing to incriminate me and set-up my lynch tomorrow - then yes, those are the only real plausible scum teams.

[Hoopla]

I am also sad that Hoopla did not say what role she was last game.

Sorry - I was a cop. How is this helpful?

I want to know.

Also, I reread some, and I am about 90% sure Hoopla is scum. But must wait for Cyberbob first.

Based on what?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, why did you investigate Sens night one?

A few reasons. I didn't like his jump on the Peabody wagon - I thought if anyone was bussing, it would probably have been his vote. He was the one that put him at L-1. Second was the way he buttered up toward me at the end of D1, every time I've played with him as town we always get into petty fights, so I found it kind of odd. And third, because I find him hard to read.

[Hoopla]

Or why you repeatedly didn't vig Vaya or Coco?

Well, I'm certainly not going to vig N1 when the cop option is the far superior way to play JOAT. On N2 I contemplated using it, as CoCo was my only genuine scum read, but felt he was a decent chance of being lynched the next day, so why waste my kill now? And as for N3, DDD had eclipsed CoCo in suspicion in my mind.

As for Vaya - I didn't ever find him particularly suspicion, and was advocating leaving him alive and not buying the WIFOM until Day 3.

[Hoopla]

How was I supposed to interact with Sens - on the times I disagreed with his play I gave him an out saying it didn't bother me. I agree my D2 play didn't reflect his innocence exactly, but I probably would have attacked him if I didn't know his alignment.

Why are you using no decodable breadcrumb as an argument against me? Nobody else breadcrumbed - and if I was actually fakeclaiming I'm sure I could do a lot better than claiming JOAT.

If you haven't already, I'd advise you to reread parts of the thread from both sides - Cyberbob/Hoopla scum, and DDD/Socrates scum.

[Hoopla]

Rats, I'm used to losing (I haven't won since January), but I have a pretty hollow feeling from losing this. We COMPLETELY botched our last day - we had deliberately planned matching actions to try and get a mislynch, and I thought my JOAT play was kind of believable. But we came unstuck when two other powerroles claimed before us. I don't know why we didn't change, when we had the advantage of claiming last, but we certainly didn't think that last day through at all compared to our other play.

This was one of the most mentally draining games I've played, and I hope other mini normals don't steal as much of my time as this one did. Perhaps that's why losing this so extravagantly is annoying, because we had so much time invested in it. Oh well, I have lots of other comments to make, but thanks Kublai for the creative set-up. I did have fun.

[Hoopla]

I've explained my reasoning for swapping to DDD. I've explained why Raskol probably isn't the best lynch. I'm getting tired of whenever someone gets close to lynch, someone jumps up and decides we need another 5 pages of debating about the same things.

You seem upset with me because I'm not taking an overly controversial position. Here is my controversial position then: I've had enough of talking, and I think a lot of others are too. Mini Normals should not run for 60+ pages. I'm going to vote DDD, and I'm not going to bother analysing the recent 2 pages or so of debating. I could be persuaded to vote SC because I think his theory is bogus and a distraction from the Raskol/DDD wagons. Please can we lynch someone.

For what it was worth - I was genuine here, and would have probably posted the same thing as town. We were going nowhere, and it was doing my head in trying to sift through all the latest arguments. The reason why I backed off so much and let it happen, is mostly because it was discrediting SC's theory and causing players to tunnel in on each other.

--

Throughout most of the game I saw SC as innocuous and certainly not a threat at all. His case was decently convincing, and I probably would have been a lot more open to explore it if I were town. I'm kind of surprised he got lynched on Day 3 - I just wonder how different things could have been if we went after DDD harder and got a claim out of him then. SC, you have way too much energy and enthusiasm for this game. Just wait a couple of months and you'll be sluggish like the rest of us.

--

The replacements really turned the game on it's head, and I felt trapped in my previous suspicions I outlaid. I couldn't go after Socrates or Raskol based on night actions, but didn't have much on anyone else. I think such active, canny replacements was a big part of us not pulling off an easy win.

--

Hey kublai, did you ever find out who Haramafuji was?

[Hoopla]

Holy crap! Just read the scum QT. Hoopla, you are a diabolical mastermind! That was ridiculous. I've tried using codes as scum before, but it was like 'if I start a post with Ummm, it means bus'.

I wouldn't have shared that quicktopic and recycled that, or at least edited it out or something. That would be really useful in the future. Now I want to go invent some kind of code like that.

The thing is, we didn't really use it much, because we weren't ever under pressure. I found myself agreeing with whatever new position Cyberbob would take as the right way to play. Talking for the sake of talking seemed pointless - I think we had a good unexplained understanding of each other's play, which is more important. I'd like to be scum with Cyberbob again.

[Hoopla]

Can anyone point to another mod error please? I want to start the game over with the same players!

I haven't followed along 100% but pretty impressed with everyone who played the game to the (or their) end. The replacements were all fantastic, thank you so much.

Thanks for a brilliantly modded game, KK.

Sorry for killing you so early, I remember Cyberbob wanting to go after someone else. I just had a niggling feeling you might have gone after me for some reason. Part of the reason was also a kill that didn't draw any obvious ties with us, which strengthened our position, considering we both bussed Peabody really hard.

[Hoopla]

I wanted to kill le Chat.

We so should of.

I'm surprised how right I was at guessing the powerroles:

As for my roleblock, I'm going to use it on Sens. I'm 60% sure he's a powerrole. When we were discussing the possibility of a 2:10 set-up, he seemed adament this game couldn't be balanced with 10 town. This implies he has some sort of powerful role that would not work with a 2:10 set-up. I'm thinking vig or cop. See post 526 by Sens for reference.

I'm not getting powerrole vibes from mathcam, to be honest.

Charter or le Chat would be my next picks for powerroles - probably favouring le Chat. I don't know if it's a playstyle thing, but he tends to lay low, not offend anyone, and stay out of the limelight. Plus he looks quite town.

I think we should kill and roleblock Sens and le Chat - I don't know which for which though. I like the idea of killing Sens for the Vaya WIFOM aspect.

Sens, was your discussion about the set-up and possibility of a 2:10 (here) influenced by your role at all, or was I imagining things?

[Hoopla]

I forgot to thank Peabody. He took being bussed that hard very well, and didn't leave any obvious ties with myself or Cyberbob. The wifom gambit was an interesting play that looked like it could have worked, but it ended up hindering us, unfortunately. Like I said here;

My theory is scum may have planned for such a thing. "If you get lynched, name a townie as scumbuddy."

I think that's a pretty stupid theory. If scum were going to plan for possible D1 scenarios, surely claiming a powerrole to prevent your own lynch and/or out another would be a better outcome for them. Claiming a scumbuddy guarentees your lynch and not necessarily a mislynch the next day. Claiming a powerrole can get a mislynch D1, and possibly out another role.

It's safe to assume it was a renegade gambit by a new player, thinking it was the right thing to do. Peabody's stable demeanor does not suggest a bitter player trying to ruin the game for a partner.

It was never planned, and I'd have preferred Peabody going for a cop claim, which would have probably bought him an extra day, and the chance for him to claim a guilty on someone else tomorrow. He still did a good job though.