Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)

[charter]

You and mathcam should vote Cathart (so should everyone else).

[SerialClergyman]

I'm going to hold
off
until I can reread properly. I'm happier with a coco lynch ATM.

[Hoopla]

I'm going to hold
off
until I can reread properly. I'm happier with a coco lynch ATM.

When are you going to be back playing properly?

[SerialClergyman]

As soon as telstra connect a line to my new apartment. I'll get a few slow days at work too.

[Cyberbob]

So what you're saying is late November, possibly early December?



(aussie joke)

[mathcam]

The pact idea is intriguing. I think if I had been in that game, I would have been in favor. Here, however, I'm not sure anyone feels that the scum odds for Vaya are as low as 5-10 percent, so I'm not sure that idea will fly. I seem to be among the most pro-Vaya (at least from the peabody perspective), and even I find Sens' case mildly compelling.

Another note: Roughly, mafia wins by outsurviving the town (i.e., long enough to hold a majority). Every false lynch takes them one step closer, even if it's a "just to be safe" lynch.

Cam

[Hoopla]

If there is a 3 player scum team (and we have no reason to suspect an SK), 20% is par for everyone. Having a couple of suspects above 20% pushes down that par percentage for every other player. Some players dropping to 10% isn't that much of a stretch, especially after a scum lynch.

And that isn't even considering the possibility of a 2 player scum team. It's interesting that Peabody outed only one name. This makes the possibility of a 2-man scumteam likelier, in my opinion.

[CoCo]

Vote: Sensfan

.

I simply cannot believe Sens would bring up the WIFOM situation imposed by Peabody.
My theory is scum may have planned for such a thing. "If you get lynched, name a townie as scumbuddy."
I honestly can't say whether via is scum or not. His posting dropped off quite suddenly after the quote war early in this game.
What I can say, is Sens appears to be sticking to what I perceive as a scum plan to lead the town into a mislynch.

Instead of these talked about policy lynches, let's just concentrate on nailing scum. WIFOM is a scum tactic. Peabody tried it, he flipped scum. Sensfan brings it back up.

Not on my watch...

[CoCo]

Via = Vaya.

[Cyberbob]

I honestly can't say whether via is scum or not.

His posting dropped off quite suddenly after the quote war early in this game.
What I can say, is Sens appears to be sticking to what I perceive as a scum plan to lead the town into a

mislynch

.

If you think a Vaya lynch would be a mislynch that kind of implies you think he's town. That opening sentence is cute, and something a Proper Townie might say, but it's clearly not something you actually believe if you're so sure that this is all part of a scum plan to get a townie lynched.

[CoCo]

Ummm, no. You're looking way too deep into my words and changing the nature of my point.

Let me make this simple for you; what do you think of Sensfan after he brought up the WIFOM situation a confirmed scum made for us?

[Hoopla]

My theory is scum may have planned for such a thing. "If you get lynched, name a townie as scumbuddy."

I think that's a pretty stupid theory. If scum were going to plan for possible D1 scenarios, surely claiming a powerrole to prevent your own lynch and/or out another would be a better outcome for them. Claiming a scumbuddy guarentees your lynch and not necessarily a mislynch the next day. Claiming a powerrole can get a mislynch D1, and possibly out another role.

It's safe to assume it was a renegade gambit by a new player, thinking it was the right thing to do. Peabody's stable demeanor does not suggest a bitter player trying to ruin the game for a partner.

[Cyberbob]

Ummm, no. You're looking way too deep into my words and changing the nature of my point.

Actually I'm not, but thanks anyways. You said you believe this to be a scum ploy to squeeze a mislynch out of the loss of one of their members, ergo you believe Vaya's lynch to be a mislynch, ergo you believe him to be town. It really doesn't get too much simpler than that.

Let me make this simple for you; what do you think of Sensfan after he brought up the WIFOM situation a confirmed scum made for us?

I think that it was always going to have to be discussed at one point or another, and that such things are usually best sorted out (one way or another) as early as possible. I don't like how forceful he is being in his push to lynch Vaya today, but I do think that he will probably have to be lynched at

some

point because without any means of determining whether Peabody was simply being crafty I would not be comfortable having him alive in an endgame situation.

[charter]

Ok, CoCo is back to being a possible lynch for me if I can't get Cathart lynched.

[Col.Cathart]

Sorry guys for being absent on a weekend. I had some serious personal problems in RL.

So far I only skimmed the thread, more insight from me tomorrow.

Just for a possible lynch target list, everyone else is making, I'm fine with lynching CoCo and Charter.

[charter]

Cathart, you still haven't given a good reason why you find CoCo suspicious. All you say is his behavior is erratic, and that's exactly the same thing that Peabody said, so... doesn't seem like a good reason to me.

[Kublai Khan]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

CoCo

- 3 - Col.Cathart, Hoopla, SerialClergyman - (L-3)

Col.Cathart

- 2 - charter, Cyberbob - (L-4)

SensFan

- 2 - mathcam, CoCo - (L-4)

Vaya

- 1 - SensFan - (L-5)

Players not voting: le Chat, Vaya

Prodding Vaya.....

[mathcam]

Having a couple of suspects above 20% pushes down that par percentage for every other player. Some players dropping to 10% isn't that much of a stretch, especially after a scum lynch...

It's interesting that Peabody outed only one name. This makes the possibility of a 2-man scumteam likelier, in my opinion.

Two good points. Though for the second one, it's not like he was pretending to go nuts and out his scum team, it's that he was pretending to go nuts and out the scum that bussed him. So this leave room for 3. This might be important later -- if we do lynch a second scum (and it's not Vaya) and the game's not over, it seems likely that the third scum was not on the Peabody wagon.

The more happy I become with my pro-Vaya stance, the more happy I become with my Sens vote. If it was just him and Peabody, he needs all the extra days he can get. What better way to accomplish this than to have us waste a full day on a Vaya lynch?

And while I'm usually quite fond of the pouncing on the inadvertent use of the word "mislynch" myself, I think CoCo's pretty in the clear on this one. I don't think he's making a ton of sense at the moment, but I do think the word mislynch there was appropriate.

Cam

[SerialClergyman]

My theory is scum may have planned for such a thing. "If you get lynched, name a townie as scumbuddy."

I think that's a pretty stupid theory. If scum were going to plan for possible D1 scenarios, surely claiming a powerrole to prevent your own lynch and/or out another would be a better outcome for them. Claiming a scumbuddy guarentees your lynch and not necessarily a mislynch the next day. Claiming a powerrole can get a mislynch D1, and possibly out another role.

It's safe to assume it was a renegade gambit by a new player, thinking it was the right thing to do. Peabody's stable demeanor does not suggest a bitter player trying to ruin the game for a partner.

qft.

Should also qft cyberbobs joke. Filthy telstra

[Col.Cathart]

Cathart, you still haven't given a good reason why you find CoCo suspicious. All you say is his behavior is erratic, and that's exactly the same thing that Peabody said, so... doesn't seem like a good reason to me.

Weird logic. What prevents scum for pointing out scum slips of his partner? It's a good way to distance yourself from your scumbuddy. And get yourself a couple of bonus townie points. The fact that scum pointed something out, doesn't necessarily doesn't mean it's outright wrong.

Plus I still have serious doubts about his willingness to hammer someone, who he finds not guilty. ESPECIALLY when that person turns out to be a scum.

[charter]

Wow. I think more people need to be voting Cathart.

[SensFan]

The more happy I become with my pro-Vaya stance, the more happy I become with my Sens vote. If it was just him and Peabody, he needs all the extra days he can get. What better way to accomplish this than to have us waste a full day on a Vaya lynch?

That seems like an odd change of direction, cam. Weren't you the one saying a page ago that you thought my arguments were slightly convincing? Surely, then, you see that - regardless of how right I may or may not be - I have no ulterior motives behind this push for a Vaya lynch.
As for CoCo's claims I'm scummy for this, well, lets just say I'll bother responding if I see any sign(s) that anyone else thinks anything he rights is worth mention.

[mathcam]

I can see why you'd be confused. Let me put it like this. I believe, moreso than an average lynch, that:

a) If Vaya is town, a scum SensFan would be more likely to be pushing for his lynch.
b) If Vaya is scum, a town SensFan would be more likely to be pushing for his lynch.

Regardless of how convincing you're being, if I end up thinking you're wrong, you end up looking scummier (especially if, given arguments against Vaya being scum that I find compelling, you seem unphased, which you do). Plus, as I've argued, I think some of your argument (namely, the policy lynch part) is downright backwards and (perhaps inadvertently) pro-scum.

Do you have any reaction to what, say, Hoopla is saying about

I think I'm pretty anti- a CoCo lynch at the moment. It's just a gut read, but based on what I would expect from CoCo's playstyle, he wouldn't hesitate from vehemently bussing Peabody if they were scum together. Cathart would be an acceptable compromise, but I wouldn't mind hearing Charter weigh in on the latest with SensFan first.

Cam

[Vaya]

I'm really finding myself agreeing with a lot of what mathcam's saying today.

Vote: Sensfan

Its not that the logic behind my lynch is entirely bad, but I could very well see Sens-scum pushing for this lynch to buy scum an extra day. I was also thinking that it was odd how Sens seemed unfazed by any arguments about me being town or against Peabody's statement being a frustrated outburst.

I also agree with mathcam about CoCo. I believe that he's town and I'm against his lynch.

[SensFan]

I probably should have brought this up earlier, since it probably goes a long way to explaining how I do, but read Rage in iso here.

New player to the site.
Plays fairly well, though is still wagoned to a claim D1.
Claims a cool Power.
People (including me, similar to when I push for a Peabody lynch, ironically) find massive holes in his claim.
He is lynched.
He explodes and calls out a buddy for having bussed him.
We lynched that person D2 for the sake of clearing the air, and he flipped a buddy of Rage.

Simply put, I have no significant read on Vaya whatsoever, and I'm not arguing he is scummy. I, personally, think it is absolutely unfathomable that we would even think of letting him go unlynched in an endgame scenario, since the odds are just far too high that Peabody outed a partner. Given that, the best play is to lynch him today.
If we're right, this game is (good as, since a third Scum, if any, was off the Peabody wagon) won. If we're wrong, then we've eliminated something that will doubtlessly hang over the game until Vaya dies, affecting our read of him, and are still well ahead of the curve, having gone 1-1 in our lynches.

As unfortunate as it is that we have to let Peabody get away with a mislynch if this was a bluff, there's a reason most Mods ban that shit in its entirety, and we just have to deal with it.

Again, sorry Vaya, but my vote's not moving today.