Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)

[Cyberbob]

Alrighty, I can buy that I suppose.

[mathcam]

A funny thing about words typed over the Internet, I've found, is that you can make them say whatever you want regardless of whether what they're saying is true or not.

Lol.

And I agree that the other topic is not pressing and probably distracting, but I'm pretty positive I'm in the right here. Sens' example (and note that it is only one example) doesn't prove a whole lot -- that same game where the fist scum was still alive might still have been won for scum. While scum-pairing is a handy tool, it often leads to false connections (perhaps even cleverly placed by scum), so it's a bit ludicrous to assume you would've won if you hadn't killed that scum. And you can't just dismiss the percentages because they're random and we're not -- over a large number of games, we average out to about random. Plus, you treat it as if the fact that we're non-random would inherently be a plus to the town, but this is not so clear. Non-random means allowing in human weaknesses as well as human strengths, and there's more townies to do dumb things than there are scum to do dumb things. Finally, Hoopla's Flay's quote is being taken a bit too literally, I think (but I could be wrong, maybe he actually believes that). I think an interpretation like "Lynching scum day 1 has some drawbacks to go along with its obvious advantages" is fair and true, but it doesn't mean that lynching day one scum is anything short of awesome for town. Damn...this was supposed to be a short note to stop this discussion. Oh well.

[mathcam]

Oh wow, I'm an idiot. Sorry mathcam. Which of the people in the middle are you most suspicious of based off Peabody's posts?

No problem. And it's hard to rank people based off of Peabody's posts when they're most noteworthy for being absent from Peabody's posts, but...

The one that seemed like the most fake distancing was with SensFan. He brings up that he's lurking a couple of times, and tosses him an FOS for attacking SC. The only thing relevant on Hoopla (to me) is that she thought Tally's attack on her seemed pro-town. The Peabody/CyberBob interplay would be the one that I would say looks the most like Peabody was keeping intentionally neutral on. There's plenty of CyberBob references, but not even the slightest attack or defense one way or another (the one minor attack was soon recanted). And then le Chat and Vaya barely get mentioned at all, so not much of a read possible there.

So if I was to only look at Peabody's posts looking for possible pairings, I'd go SensFan or CyberBob.

Cam

[le Chat]

Meow everyone. Crazy weekend at awa and now I'm stuck in Atlanta trying to get my car fixed. Still kinda v/la.

If you all wanted meta on me I just completed my first full game here at ms as le chat. It was Open 166 Lovers mafia and I lost as scum.

I don't really follow the necessity of the game mechanics debate that just went on here. When I am back at my computer I hope to spend time parsing the thread and put down another good post.

[le Chat]

Meow everyone. Crazy weekend at awa and now I'm stuck in Atlanta trying to get my car fixed. Still kinda v/la.

If you all wanted meta on me I just completed my first full game here at ms as le chat. It was Open 166 Lovers mafia and I lost as scum.

I don't really follow the necessity of the game mechanics debate that just went on here. When I am back at my computer I hope to spend time parsing the thread and put down another good post.

[le Chat]

Mathcam, you -do- see cyberbob as a potential Peabody pairing? The immediate and still strong feeling that I got from the pb lynch was that cyberbob looked pretty town for it, noteworthy being the first vote on the pb lynch but also his pointing out the contradictory statement pb made about "feeling x is scummy" when x was a "feeling y is scummy." apologies that I can't cite specific posts now on phone. Do you consider that suspicious distancing? Because i do/did not.

[Cyberbob]

(the one minor attack was soon recanted)

He didn't recant until I spelled his contradiction out in explicit detail (he argued back a bit until finally asking me to provide quotes), and once I had done so I find any other course of action on his part than a meek withdrawal of the attack implausible at best.

Apart from that I do kind of see where you're coming from, at least as far as his interactions with me go (I'd have to go over his interactions with SensFan before I can comment there). I

did

notice that he was being rather cautious towards me at the time but I chalked it up to indecisiveness as to how much he could push back without looking overdefensive/OMGUSy - particularly seeing how I was not being viewed with any real suspicion by the majority of the players at the time. It's tough to aggressively defend yourself in a situation like that, scum

or

town.

[Kublai Khan]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

CoCo

- 2 - Cyberbob, Col.Cathart - (L-4)

Col.Cathart

- 1 - charter - (L-5)

Players not voting: CoCo, SerialClergyman, Hoopla, le Chat, mathcam, SensFan, Vaya

Will do an activity check later tonight.

[SerialClergyman]

New place is great, still no net. Vla for another couple of days, sorry.

[mathcam]

The CyberBob side of the CyberBob/Peabody interactions definitely are more indicative of a town CyberBob. Though on the other hand, if I was going to try to get a read from one out of the two people, I'd expect the n00ber of the two to give away more. Back on the first hand, I've been digging almost everything CyberBob's been selling today.

I might be leaning toward a SensFan vote. Other candidates are Cathart (I think charter is looking mildly good in their back and forth, but a Peabody pairing doesn't seem likely) and Hoopla (who I'm just getting inexplicable scum vibes from, though from her end, was pretty aggressive on Peabody).

Ah, what the heck.

Vote: SensFan.

Cam

[Cyberbob]

I'm not too sure about SensFan. I would possibly even help you put together a wagon on him if he hadn't put Peabody at L-1 at a time when he could easily have gone with the flow of the discussion at the time and drawn out the day even longer, perhaps even getting the vote-momentum swinging onto some other object of suspicion. It just seems so unnecessary to bus like that when you have so many other options (yes I know this is WIFOM; my point still stands).



After thinking about CoCo a bit more I think I'll

Unvote

him for the time being. I've still got him in my sights as a serious detriment to the town at best, but with Cathart on board as well I can't ignore the possibility that he might simply be an "easy lynch". For now I guess I'll just wait and see (I am also trying to avoid tunneling).

[le Chat]

Agree with cam on iffy feelings to Hoopla. Don't feel like I hear enough from her to understand where she stands. Was just going to wait to hear more from her and get a real opinion until you said you felt similar.

Cyberbob, just noting to you that you are unvoting CoCo at the point where he isn't posting to irritate you. Has he posted on D2 yet?

[Cyberbob]

Not yet, no.

You're thinking I voted him because he's annoying? You could be right I suppose; I didn't even really consider the possibility of scum jumping on him for being an easy town lynch until my number-two suspect voted for him.

Still, even thinking about him a bit more objectively there's still the manner in which he flipflopped on Peabody as well as the manner in which he offered to hammer him. So I'm definitely not letting him off the hook just yet.

[le Chat]

didn't mean to imply it was your only reason. i did chuckle when i read that you unvoted him after he hasnt spoken in a while, after Day 1's mass comments about his playstyle being aggressive/mean/non-townie/whatnot.

[Hoopla]

Really sorry everyone for recent inactivity, I've been busy. Consider me officially now back on track, with much more time over the next couple of weeks. Mkay, now on to business, with some thoughts on D1 with the knowledge of Peabody's and Talitha's flips.

---

Firstly, Talitha's death seemed odd. Is it note-worthy that one of Peabody's main suspicions throughout D1 was Talitha, and vice-versa? Along with Cyberbob, Talitha was one of the Peabody wagon's most vocal advocates. I speculate the scum kill was done to make others on the Peabody wagon look more pro-town.

An oddity from D1 was Cyberbob who went the entire day without shifting his vote from Peabody. He made two FoS's throughout the course of the day, but made no effort (besides surface-deep enquiries) to pursue any other avenues. Although some consider it a scum-tell, I think town tend to vote-hop more than scum, and I find single-vote days truly bizarre (especially D1, with little to no knowledge). I'd like some explaination from Cyberbob about this.

--

I'm still at odds about what to do with CoCo. For those opposed to the 'easy lynch', do you think he would act any differently as scum? The facts are he defended Peabody on multiple occasions, especially early for the random vote thing (see here: 1, 2, 3, 4)

After this early foray of defenses, he decides to iso-read Peabody and conveniently does a 180 and jumps on with the L-1 vote. I know everyone is finding it difficult to read CoCo, but this is a signifigant enough piece of evidence - especially when he rarely, if ever defended any other player. It seems to me he was trying to deter suspicion on Peabody early, then as it became increasingly likely he was going to be lynched, he had to somehow change his views to jump on and gain some town credit.

This theory is also quantified by the way he acted toward my early bandwagon. You'll note he was on edge when my wagon reached 4 and 5 votes. I think a similar thing happened when Peabody reached the same mark, he genuinely felt his Peabody's lynch was inevitable, and had to change his views knowing what Peabody would flip.

This smorgasbord of evidence is enough for me to think he is probably scum. This does not even include points I posted throughout D1 (such as bringing up his own two-game meta to try and defend himself, and his late flip-flopping on Peabody).

So, my question to those who don't think CoCo is scum is; what would CoCo have to do, for you to consider lynching him? Despite being anti-town, people only oppose his lynch because it seems too obvious. This is a bad trap to fall into as it allows him to get away with anything that could be construed as lying or a scumtell. The lynches become more important each day, and we don't want to be in a situation where he is alive in Lylo.

--

One of the biggest things towns ignore are dead townies' previous suspicions. Reading through Talitha's thoughts, her most outgoing attack on anyone was SC, despite conceding he was playing like a townie. The only reason why this is signifigant is because she is confirmed town. This means her motivations were pure, and although possibly wrong, we know this wasn't a statement of manipulation or lie. This slightly boosts my suspicion on SC (even though I think he is town).

--

My town reads are charter and mathcam. Charter has been outgoing and his interaction with Peabody does not seem fake. I never understood his bandwagon, which admittedly was fueled largely by CoCo (which indicates its worth ). I haven't fully understood the pairing he made between Col.Cathart and Peabody, but I want to look into it.

Mathcam is a quality player, and probably quality as scum too, but he's made enough sense so far for me to not find any inconsistancies. The main reason why I find him town is because he appears least likely to be bussing Peabody.

My gut says there is one scum on the wagon and one off (presuming there is a 3 member scumteam). If it's only 2 (which I put at a less than 20% chance), scum is almost certainly off the wagon. This is why I will probably pursue a vote of someone off the Peabody wagon, like CoCo or Col.Cathart.

I still have more reading to do, but this is the majority of my thoughts so far.

[Kublai Khan]

Prodding CoCo & Vaya...

[Cyberbob]

An oddity from D1 was Cyberbob who went the entire day without shifting his vote from Peabody. He made two FoS's throughout the course of the day, but made no effort (besides surface-deep enquiries) to pursue any other avenues. Although some consider it a scum-tell, I think town tend to vote-hop more than scum, and I find single-vote days truly bizarre (especially D1, with little to no knowledge). I'd like some explaination from Cyberbob about this.

Two reasons.

Firstly, Peabody never did anything to make me think that he was anything other than scum; disregarding the two Big Points in the case against him (his defence of his initial vote and his self-contradiction) none of his posts were particularly inspiring or salient. Even

Cathart

(I think it was him) managed to come up with one or two good points, but Peabody was kind of lethargic.

Secondly, nobody else did anything to make me think that they were more likely to be scum than Peabody. I

would

have been willing to settle for a Cathart or a CoCo lynch yesterday, and would have also been willing to switch my vote to either of them if it became apparent that I was not going to get a Peabody lynch. I considered switching to CoCo in particular at two points; the first being in the early stages of the day during the discussion about his overemotional play beforehand, and the second being in the midst of the fallout over his second flareup towards the end of the day.

The first time I decided against it mainly because overemotionalness is not a very good reason to vote for someone if that's all you have on them (I see it more as a supplementary point) and I had a fair bit more on Peabody. I came a lot closer on the second time, but for the reasons I outlined in Posts 581 & 595 I felt that Peabody's would be the more useful of the two cardflips. Which it clearly has been IMO.

[CoCo]

My apologies for not posting the last few days. Beer + football = stay off the internet.

I still think Charter is scum. Its not a stance I'm going to be changing. Can I make a case against him to convince people a Charter lynch is a good lynch? No, and I wish I could.

Concerning my behavior regarding Peabody; I truly thought he was town. Because the town wanted him lynched, I didn't see anything wrong in being the one to hammer him. Why would I? If I hammered him and he flipped town, I'd be called out on hammering a townie. If I hammered and he flipped scum, I'd be called out for lynching a scumbuddy. I clearly had nothing to lose.

Am I scum? Of course not. Has my play this game been good? Negative. But saying my behavior where Charter is concerned amounts to nothing but eye-rolling isn't going to help the town win. And I therefore refuse to let go of my lynch candidate simply because its a case involving too many subtleties and not a lot of hard evidence.

[le Chat]

I still think Charter is scum. Its not a stance I'm going to be changing. Can I make a case against him to convince people a Charter lynch is a good lynch? No, and I wish I could.

Am I scum? Of course not. Has my play this game been good? Negative. But saying my behavior where Charter is concerned amounts to nothing but eye-rolling isn't going to help the town win. And I therefore refuse to let go of my lynch candidate simply because its a case involving too many subtleties and not a lot of hard evidence.

Can you not please point out these subtleties to me, or at least manifest your case in generalities / summaries instead of saying you can't?

Pertaining to Hoopla's post, and also @Hoopla: What you said is pretty convincing from the CoCo -> Peabody angle, but what CoCo said in response also makes sense... basically, what about from the Peabody -> CoCo angle? Peabody commented many times that he found CoCo suspicious, that he would be down for a CoCo lynch. I don't think Peabody would have held that belief overtly if he were CoCo's scummate. What do you think?

[mathcam]

^---- I agree with everything in that post.

[Col.Cathart]

Concerning my behavior regarding Peabody; I truly thought he was town. Because the town wanted him lynched, I didn't see anything wrong in being the one to hammer him. Why would I? If I hammered him and he flipped town, I'd be called out on hammering a townie. If I hammered and he flipped scum, I'd be called out for lynching a scumbuddy. I clearly had nothing to lose.

Wait... I don't get it. You say it would be suspicious if you would hammer and Peabody flipped town, and the same thing if he would flipped scum. Ok, true. But then again, I still don't understand, why offering the hammer anyway? Someone else would have come with that proposal, and by saying you're going to hammer, you kinda contradicted yourself when you said, you think Peabody is town. Staying with your vote and opinion, wouldn't rise any eyebrow. Instead, from clear and safe point of view, you went into 'lose or lose' situation. So... Why? If I missed your point, then please point it out again.

[Hoopla]

Pertaining to Hoopla's post, and also @Hoopla: What you said is pretty convincing from the CoCo -> Peabody angle, but what CoCo said in response also makes sense... basically, what about from the Peabody -> CoCo angle? Peabody commented many times that he found CoCo suspicious, that he would be down for a CoCo lynch. I don't think Peabody would have held that belief overtly if he were CoCo's scummate. What do you think?

I agree it looks like a less likely pairing from this angle, mainly because of Peabody jumping on CoCo when his own lynch was becoming likelier. Usually this is a decent town indication - it's uncommon for scum to further an alternate wagon to their own on a partner. But it isn't totally out of the question. If Peabody genuinely thought he was going down, he could easily try to sew some fake interactions. We already have evidence of him attempting it with Vaya at the end of play.

If we had the perfect candidate that made sense from both ways of interaction, we would be lynching them now. CoCo's scummy play with Peabody outweighs the town probability from the other angle.

[CoCo]

@ Le Chat: Yeah, I'll try to make a case out of my general thoughts. Probably by the end of the day. One of his posts I think people should take a look at is iso-Charter #43.

I am pretty sure Peabody is scum and two of the people not voting him and ignoring him are his buddies. This list to include

mathcam
Col.Cathart
Talitha
SerialClergyman
le Chat
SensFan

I really have absolutely no clue how all of these people seem to have nothing to say AT ALL about Peabody, and he is sitting at L-1. You all need to state whether you think Peabody is scum or not, and why.

After thinking about this this morning, I am going to pull a 180.

unvote

Upon further reflection, while many people are ignoring Peabody, there really isn't anyone trying to stop his lynch, which I would expect to happen if he was scum. Seems unlikely his buddies would leave him to the vultures without hardly a word or a last minute bus attempt. Also, Col.Cathart asking him to claim after saying he doesn't find Peabody scummy made my scumdar go berserk with this poor attempt at rolefishing.

Also, my main Peabodyscum theory stems almost entirely from Col.Cathartscum, so it would be dumb on my part to lynch Peabody first, especially since he's looked way more pro town recently.

Will continue this post when I get back from dinner and proceed in voting mathcam.

Shortly before this post, Talitha also stepped off the Peabody wagon. I jumped all over both Charter and her for it. However, after reading her posts concerning the issue while knowing she was town, its clear she was wavering between SC and Peabody.
This makes it more likely for Charter to be scum. He would know Talitha was town and used that information to leave a scumbuddy's wagon. When the scum killed Talitha, I will stake money it was done to make this play by Charter appear more
town.
Whether I'm right or not, the above example is one of the more suspicious behaviors Charter has exhibited recently. There are a few other scummy things of note in that post. But they are more blatant than my own theory about it and therefore shouldn't be hard for others to pick up on.

@Cathart: Suffice to say, because my behavior seems to get a lot of people riled up, it wouldn't matter what Peabody's alignment had been upon his lynch. Yes, I was wrong about him being town, but there would still be plenty of animosity and suspicion of me regardless whether I hammered or not. Because I had nothing to lose, would it not be best for me to make the killing blow?

[CoCo]

I suppose I'll just point it out anyway.
Charter says:

"Also, my main Peabodyscum theory stems almost entirely from Col.Cathartscum, so it would be dumb on my part to lynch Peabody first, especially since he's looked way more pro town recently.

Will continue this post when I get back from dinner and proceed in voting mathcam."

If its dumb to vote for Peabody instead of Cathart, why did you decide to go eat dinner before coming back and voting for Mathcam? Just who is your main suspect?

Charter has been pulling crap like this the entire game.

Also, his reasoning for leaving the Peabody wagon looks to me like a thinly veiled attempt to clear Peabody.

[charter]

I'd be down for a CoCo lynch just so we don't have to deal with him any more, otherwise, Cathart still looks the scummiest to me.

I don't really get why Hoopla is questioning why Cyberbob was voting a scumbag the entire day. It seems like a ridiculously bad idea from a Cyberbobscum perspective. That's really all I found noteworthy since I last posted. I'm inclined to think that Hoopla isn't scum though, since Peabody didn't really seem to care that Hoopla was at L-2 really early, it looked like he wanted to use that to build an attack on the voters rather than prevent her lynch.

I was just looking at the end of yesterday, and I think it should be noted that Cathart was sticking with Peabody and trying to lynch CoCo. Also, he REALLY went out of his way to avoid talking about Peabody at all in the ~4-5 pages before the lynch. Just seems scummy to me. The last time I see him mention Peabody is post 485, and it looks really scummy to me as well.

Person I suspect most after Cathart is probably SC.