Open 83 - Polygamist Mafia (Game over!) before 628

[Adel]

vote: somestrangeflea

for using dice.

[Adel]

If we claim partners, we can judge alignment off of two people's scumminess as opposed to just one. Major benefit for town. All in favor?

It seemed to effect the town nicely in this one. So why not try it here?

Why should we try it here? One of the townies in that game voted for his partner, are you suggesting that is also a tactic worth repeating?

[Adel]

why?

[Adel]

I don't see any reason to claim day 1 rather than day 2.

[Adel]

if we don't massclaim, then even town pairs might not vote together

Even if we do massclaim, I see no reason why me and my lover should always vote the same way...

I agree with SSF here on this.
I don't see why lovers will always vote the same way.

As for claiming who our lovers are, I don't really see what it gains us.

it takes a game of twelve elements and simplifies it to six elements.

[Adel]

Vote Count

somestrangeflea (2) -

Adel, Gimbo

Is it possible that Gimbo initially tried to distance himself from his scumbuddy before deciding to claim lover with him?

[Adel]

We can basically random vote and we very well might win, IF we don't, on Day 2, its going to be 50/50 and even if we have no other information, just by guessing we have 50% chance of hitting scum.

in order to lynch scum on day 2 it takes all six townies votinf for a single scum. With just two townies voting for another townie the four scum ill be able to quicklynch and win.

[Adel]

I support mass-claiming today simply because we known townies wouldn't lie, so we would already have 4 vote-pairs right off the bat, this forces the 4 scum to split, and its much better for town.

if we don't massclaim, then even town pairs might not vote together, thus its going to be much more confusing.

so you voted for SSF during the random voting phase to spread confusion?

unvote, vote:Gimbo

[Adel]

What a convenient way for you to vote for me without seeming scummy.

Vote:Adel

and no, I am NOT omgusing.

bullshit.

[Adel]

That being said, I think a mass-claim is better than none, so now we ask is it better on D1 or D2. I do not see how claiming on D2 is better than on D1. I think the reluctance of people to claim when doing so clearly doesn't hurt town anyways (being that there ar eno power roles, so who the scum kill doesn't matter for them) is very scummy.

I expect the scum group, having broken off into two pseudo lover pairs in the pre-game, to be the biggested proponent of a day 1 mass claim.

Day 1 we should lynch the scummiest person. If there is a day 2 we can worry about massclaiming then.

Gimbo: what did you learn from the other Polygamist mafia?

[Adel]

If we vote for the scummiest player on D1, then that takes away the whole purpose of having lover pairs, which is suppose to make things easier.

There is a difference between netwok or group analysis and the analysis of an individual.

As I have read in another game,

congrats on reading a game

by claiming, we can now judge the action of a pair, rather than an individual, which make things much easier for town to get a read on people.

Adel: how do you think claiming today hurts town?

It will be harder for me to catch scum in this game we we massclaim day 1.

also let's for argument sake, say you are a scum: What would you do when you are forced into agreeing to a mass-claim, how will you interact with your scumbuddies after making a lover claim with 1 of your buddies?

sorry, this isn't the time or the place for me to give you a tutorial on how in win as scum in this setup.

I expect the strongest proponent of a day 1 massclaim to be scum.

[Adel]

Gimbo/Nameless scumgroup +1

[Adel]

Gimbo/Nameless scumgroup +1

... Why?

[/quote]
I'm two steps in front of you.

I can see why you would do a "hos" instead of a vote, and fear of a quicklynch has nothing to do with it.

And now you are beginning to attack people that attacked Gimbo.

[Adel]

then why aren't you voting for me?

[Adel]

ops

Unvote Vote:Adel

would you indulge me by explaining why this is a vote based upon an accurate assessment of my alignment rather than a reflexive OMGUS! vote?

[Adel]

i already explained why i suspect you, SpyreX and Knight. Knight is exempt because he is a noob, SpyreX hasn't given me any more reads so that leaves you.

The only reason I recall was that we were voting for you, of course you tried to make it sound more complicated than that.

[Adel]

Adel, like I've said before, in another game, with a fellow player claiming scum in their 2nd post, and you being a scum in that game, you immediately voted the said player in a seemingly angry way after their 'claim'.

either your memory is bad, or you are lieing.

Link to proof or withdraw your statement.

[Adel]

1) You never clearly said how exactly is claiming on D1 bad.

As I allready said, it will make it harder for me to catch scum.

2) I asked you a hypothetical* question on your take on the game if you were scum and you ignored it saying you didn't want to 'tutor' me.

Exactly. You asked a superior player how to play as scum under this set up. To answer it would be to tutor you.

3) You ignored the comparison I made of this game is a previous game you were in when the MoS scum-claim gambit happened.

Do you often have trouble telling a doctor-claim apart from a scum-claim? That must make this game very difficult for you.

[Adel]

^ haha chenhsi nice.

Adel, scratch that, I read it long ago and screwed up the details in my head, apologize for that. But I still don't see HOW exactly is it more difficult to catch scum if 12 is reduced down to 6.

exactly, which is one of the reasons I'm on to you. An open and honest answer from me to your "hypothetical" question would've given you a clue.

[Adel]

Adel is obvious scum, town is blind.

do you still lack any support for this, other than my vote on you?

[Adel]

Adel, like I've said before, in another game, with a fellow player claiming scum in their 2nd post, and you being a scum in that game, you immediately voted the said player in a seemingly angry way after their 'claim'.

The game he is talking about is Newbie 540.
In that game MoS (who was a townie) claimed to be the Doctor in an early posts. I responded with a double gambit. In the first level of that gambit I breadcrumbed that I believed him, but went on to posts as if I was sure he was scum. Once some of the newbies in that game started to go along with the wagon I revealed that it was not a sincere wagon, and immediatly joined MoS in persecuting the people who were on his wagon. I survived the game and won as scum.

I find it interesting that Gimbo was asking me for advice as to what scum should do in this game. This is our first game together.

In mafia 79 Gorrad was the first player to introduce the idea of a massclaim. He was scum. If Gimbo wasn't paying attention he probably would've only noticed that the later & louder proponents of that idea happened to be town.

Before this game started I told my lover that I expected scum (at least one of them) to be a loud proponent of masclaiming in this game, and I warned him not to be eager to claim.

Quote tags fixed - mod

[Adel]

Hmm. I think that's fishing...

Vote: chensi

What is fishing?

SSF is accusing you of trying to expose who are lovers together, despite his partner doing that repeatedly as well as trying to get everyone to claim.

Rolefishing is generally where a player tried to bait a powerrole into exposing themselves.

I see SSF making that vote as a transparent attempt to divert attention from his scumbuddy who seems hell-bent on losing this game in a most embarrassing way.

[Adel]

The point behind not massclaiming on day 1 was to take advantage of possible scum discordination. They undoubtable broke into two groups in the pregame. My hope was (and my lover followed my lead) to try to avoid a massclaim during day 1. The idea was to try to engineer some events that would encourage scum to improvise, and it would be possible for one scum to either forget (or get replaced by an underinformed replacement) or change his mind as to who he should pretend to be lovers with from his scum group. By publically claiming during day 1 it locks all players into their claimed roles, and prevents scum from trying to be too craft for their own good.

In general terms a massclaim has neither a net positive or net negative effect for the players of this setup. The widespread and mistaken belief in the first run of this game was that it was a good idea, and I expected at least one scum player (seeing that there was no downside for them) to try to be a loud supporter of a massclaim in an attempt to appear as protown as possible.

(btw, SSF what do you think of you partner puting so much energy into identifying who is a lover with whom? Rolefishing much?)

Towies can't get confused as to who their partner is... they aren't going to start to think that it would be to their advantage to pretend to be a lover with someone else. Day 2 is when the real detective work is able to take place (see my posts in Open 79).

Gimbo is scum and is intimidated by me. He read my work in open 79 as well as one gambit I pulled off against MoS. If I were scum in this game I would try to get Adel lynched during Day 1.

[Adel]

so a bad memory is compounded by bad logic. Gimbo's entire post is enough of a mess, I'll just take a look at a part:

Regardless of your personal beliefs, if at least 1/2 the town has claimed, how is it not anti-town in a way for the other half to refuse to claim? Keep in mind that this is only true if all 4 scums are among those that claimed, if only 2 or none are among those that claimed, that means that the majority of town has claimed and it is anti-town of you not to do so.

If at least 1/2 of the town has claimed: how would I know if half of the town has claimed or not? The only players whose alignment I can really know is muine and my lover, but I am pretty sure that you and SSF are scum and you claimed. So that means that perhaps as much as 50% of the town has claimed.

But all of that is not relevent. Why should the actions of six other players (even if all six of them were town) determine what I should do? It isn't as if I was refusing to claim my lover in the face of a town consensus (and I share Plato's doubts of the wisdom of majority rule) what I saw happen in this game was a bunch of people claim

before

there was a consensus as to if we should claim or not.

Why are you eager to paint me as being anti-town? You are the one who forced your decision to claim upon the rest of the town before there was widespread agreement.

(btw, anti-town does not = scum, there are many reason why a player may act or seem to act in a way that at first appears to be anti-town)

Also, out of your last 10 games as town, how many have you won?

[Adel]

actually, I say we take out spyrex. i personally think there's a good chance he's mafia, and even if he isn't, gimbo surely will be.

well not surely but there's a pretty good chance.

Who do you think spyrex's lover is?

(please, nobody else answer this for him)

[Adel]

@Gimbo: did you see post 180?

[Adel]

so who is scum with Gimbo/SSF then?

[Adel]

unvote, vote: KNIGHT42

until he answers the question from this post.

actually, I say we take out spyrex. i personally think there's a good chance he's mafia, and even if he isn't, gimbo surely will be.

well not surely but there's a pretty good chance.

Who do you think spyrex's lover is?

(please, nobody else answer this for him)

[Adel]

A penny for your thoughts, Adel, would be nice...

For "Is" and "Is-not" though with Rule and Line
And "Up" and "Down" by Logic I define,
Of all that one should care to fathom,
Was never deep in anything but — Wine.

--Omar Khayyám

[Adel]

no way, I asked first.

so who is scum with Gimbo/SSF then?

[Adel]

I'll give you a half answer, and expect you to give a full answer: my attention is directed towards a lurker.

[Adel]

Maybe I need to ask that question again...

Who do you think are Gimbo/SSF scumpairing?

Christ, I'm sorry, I missed your post where you actually answered me, sorry for being difficult.

I don't have a handle on that, and I'd rather have a reasonable suspicion of someone before we lynch Gimbo.

Harvey Pew and forbiddanlight have thrown up flags for me, but they are voting for Gimbo. I've actually suspected that forbiddanlight & KNIGHT42 are scum with Gimbo and SSF but they are playing with fire and may abandon the Gimbo wagon... but I have enough reservations that I'm going to wait a few days before givign the Gimbo wagon the final push it needs to go through to lynch.

[Adel]

hey, SpyreX, would you mind unvoting? We can hammer together in 48 hours or so.

[Adel]

Adel/SpyreX: what will you guys do tomorrow if I flip town?

I think a better question, if you are town, is who is trying to set us up to responsibility for your lynch?

[Adel]

@Chelseafan: are you willing to lynch Gimbo?

[Adel]

@Chelseafan: are you willing to lynch Gimbo?

[Adel]

@chenhsi: are you willing to lynch Gimbo?

[Adel]

I'm looking for a "yes" or an "no", by the way, not an actual vote.

[Adel]

@Chelseafan: are you willing to lynch Gimbo?

I am willing to lynch him, but he wouldn't be my first choice.

Why are you willing to lynch him if 4 other pairs of players are also willing to lynch him?

[Adel]

It kind of sold me on you being scum with Gimbo.

[Adel]

I see your point.

unvote, vote:Chelseafan

I can see Chelseafan being scum without Ginbo being scum, but I can't see Gimbo being scum without Chelseafan also being scum.

[Adel]

I find it interesting that SSF and chensi have been lurking.

I find it even more interesting that so many people unvoted Gimbo so quickly. If they were willing to lynch Gimbo they should be just as willing to lynch Chelseafan. The is a chance of Chelseafan being scum with Gimbo being town, but there is no chance of Gimbo being scum if Chelseafan is scum.

Obv, if Chelseafan is town then Gimbo is town. By lynching Chelseafan we either win or walk into Day 2 with one lover couple being confirmed as town.

I think the most interesting thing is that Gimbo hasn't lept at the chance to push for the lynch of Chelseafan.

~~~~

To be clear, the major reason I wanted to put off a massclaim was to allow the chance of one scum changing his mind (or even forgetting!) about who to claim as his lover. An early claim "locks" the scum pseudo-lover pairs in and helps prevent later mistakes.

~~~

So why aren't people voting for Chelseafan?

[Adel]

also let's for argument sake, say you are a scum: What would you do when you are forced into agreeing to a mass-claim, how will you interact with your scumbuddies after making a lover claim with 1 of your buddies?

During the pregame we would determine who was going to claim lover with whom. I would go along with an early massclaim, keep a low profile, posting more than 30% of other players, just enough to avoid being identified as a lurker. I would also go along with the first reasonable wagon, or exploit an early mistake by another player, with the goal of getting the first real wagon to go through to lynch.

I'll continue to decline to respond to the interaction part of your question, because I am actively looking for certain types of interaction, and answering your question would help the scum more than help the town identify and lynch the scum.

[Adel]

But I also felt like you and (especially) Adel brought up the whole "scum did the mass claim last game" thing a little too much. A couple of references and I probably wouldn't have noticed, but there were so many it made me start to wonder why you two were making such a big deal about it (especially after eventually realizing that you two were lovers).

During the pregame I laid out what I was bahavior I was going to be looking for. Pushing for the early massclaim was the big easy one to spot. A simple skim of the first game would leave a person with the impression that the massclaim was pro-town and started by town in that game, just as Gimbo claimed, and we had to repeat ourselves (and continue to have to do so) in order for the facts to become clear to the rest of the town.

[Adel]

So why aren't people voting for Chelseafan?

(First of all, I'd just like to make the point that this kind of plan is the exact kind of thing that wouldn't work without a massclaim. Just saying.)

A similar form of logic could force scum to claim a partner other than who he originally wanted to claim, possibly unraveling a web of lies and outing scum in a really clear manner. That is what I was hoping to do by putting off a massclaim until day 2.

Two flaws in the logic, if I've understood it correctly.
1. Scum playing the game particularly risky in hope of being effectively cleared for an easy D2 win. If the more erratic players had already voted and they didn't think those who hadn't wouldn't without discussion ... It's not impossible, is what I'm saying.

It is a tricky judgement call to chose which improbabilities to pursue and which to dismiss.

2.I'm aware the pairing would appear unlikely, but I'm not sure there are four lovers willing to lynch. Both Adel and SpyreX quickly unvoted when Gimbo reached L-1.

This shows that you are a good mafia player. The only way I can disprove the logical conclusion resulting from this train of though is to actually vote to lynch Gimbo, which I am willing to do. I would rather lynch him today rather than tomorrow, because if he survives today's eventual Chelseafan lynch then I will be awefully sure that he is town.

If Chelseafan is town then it's likely Gimbo is town, but not certain.

Nothing is ever certain in mafia, except for when you are a cop in an open game. We have to be content with near-certainity.

[Adel]

A similar form of logic could force scum to claim a partner other than who he originally wanted to claim, possibly unraveling a web of lies and outing scum in a really clear manner. That is what I was hoping to do by putting off a massclaim until day 2.

I left out the specific example: a lover would never vote for his lover, so not mass claiming would neuter some scum tactics. SSF (for example) may have voted for Gimbo during Gimbo's wagon out of scum habit if they hadn't been claimed lovers.

[Adel]

I support mass-claiming today simply because we known townies wouldn't lie, so we would already have 4 vote-pairs right off the bat, this forces the 4 scum to split, and its much better for town.

if we don't massclaim, then even town pairs might not vote together, thus its going to be much more confusing.

so you voted for SSF during the random voting phase to spread confusion?

unvote, vote:Gimbo

@nameless: does this post make more sense now?

[Adel]

Ok.

1) What is the case on Chelseafan? I'm confused.

everything scummy about Gimbo + logic = Chelseafan case. Also Chelsea and his lover have maintained a very low activity level. One player lurking is hard to identify as being scummy or not, but the pair of them lurking couts as a scum tell to me.

2) How is my alignment directly linked to Chelsea's?

Do you read my posts? Try again.

3) Adel/SpyreX, what's your thoughts on forbiddanlight/Knight?

Less scummy then Harvey Pew.

4) If we hadn't claimed lovers on D1, I'll be dead for sure on D2 (if its a mislynch on D1), Reason for this is that I'll be personally gunning for SSF because she modkilled me in another game and I'm a bitter asshole so if we claimed D2, it wouldn't any sense to you all, and I would've been (mislynched) so fast.

Just wrong. Either you are lying or you are claiming that you willingly violate site-wide rules -- that means that you are either scum in this game or you are scum in real life. Which is it.?

[Adel]

Harvey Pew's vote was still kind of random, which you'd think would be took off way before someone is at L-1.

I have already explained this chelseafan. It was a random vote initially but I left it there after Gimbo's WIFOM/"I am scum" ploy.

The votes on Gimbo increased over Eastern and Pacific time and then when it got round to BST I removed the vote.

Who wants to do the leg work to disprove this?

[Adel]

'k

vote:Gimbo

[Adel]

Rules

• Once you are lynched, stop posting. Don't even make a 'bah' post. If your lover is lynched, resist the temptation to post a Romeo and Juliet style 'bah' post.

Two willing violations of a rule is a bad thing.

[Adel]

I'm so pissed at myself for hammering that I'm having trouble getting back into this game. I really should've insisted on the chealsa l-ynch.

[Adel]

yeach, I can't rule anyone out as scum right now. Does anyone have a list of who they think is most probably town?

[Adel]

And this is why I'm happy that it's 6 to lynch. NO ONE ELSE VOTE CHELSEA

vote:Chelseafan

'sup

[Adel]

unvote, vote:forbiddanlight

why were you so quick to change your mind?

[Adel]

I'm happy with my vote. I listened to my lover last time and abandoned the chlsea wagon, so I'm going to follow my own understanding of where this game is at and follow what I feel is the best course of action.

Does anyone else want to follow me on the forbiddanlight wagon?

[Adel]

@Adel.. who is the scum-match of Forbidden/Knight?

whomever doesn't vote for him

[Adel]

@firestarteer: you are missing a very important detail.

~~~

I see your point.

unvote, vote:Chelseafan

I can see Chelseafan being scum without Ginbo being scum, but I can't see Gimbo being scum without Chelseafan also being scum.

I also notice the point on Chelsea, and am unsure whether I agree with it. OH YEAH! I promised to point out some fallacies, didn't I! Let's do that now.

-- day 2 --

Um...I think most of us don't know what to do next. I'm analyzing another game right now, so one of the megaposts I've taken to doing won't be coming today anyway, not for this game. If it's required, I'll do one, but for now, I do kinda agree with the possibility of a Chelsea lynch.

...missing that the entire point of a chelsea lynch was to confirm gimbo

And this is why I'm happy that it's 6 to lynch. NO ONE ELSE VOTE CHELSEA, at least until we've agree that's the best course of action. That said, I actually quite agree with SpyreX's analyis, and would be fine with a Chelsea lynch. He makes the most logical since, and his play has been somewhat lackluster too. (yeah, I know, pot calling the kettle black). Also, how long as it been since Knight has posted?

I think I need a divorce, mod! I'd like to remarry though

then there was this qick exchange:

And this is why I'm happy that it's 6 to lynch. NO ONE ELSE VOTE CHELSEA

vote:Chelseafan

'sup

Alright, fine, if the scum fuck us over don't say I didn't warn you.

vote:Chelseafan

It's kinda pointless now to stop it. However, with Knight gone, if we are right, scum won't jump on the wagon. Chelsea will be stuck at L-1.

unvote, vote:forbiddanlight

why were you so quick to change your mind?

Because if Chelsea is scum, my vote doesn't affect anything except by bringing him closer to a successful lynch. If he was town, the scum are going to pile on it anyway, and I wanted to have a measure of control over that. I anticipated the vote would switch to me when I did that. Guess what we are back at? 2 votes on Chelsea. I can now pull it back if the scum jump Chelsea. I'm also confident I'll be around to do that. It's a security measure. You can kill me if you like for it, just that you'll lose the game.

Also, if I'm scum, that means the scum also needs another town vote to kill Chelsea. If I'm town, it's a risk, but I think it'll pay off. Harvey could be scum too, which makes this plan possibly useless...but I want to see what happens.

No one has really laid out a case againts Chlseafan, except the one I made that would've used a Chlsea lynch to confirm Gimbo. There is no way for us to know if Gimbo had scum from two groups or only on on him.

All of us who are town have the exactly the same perspective: there are two other town pairs and two scum pairs. 50-50. I don’t know what forbiddanlight’s vote on Chlsea was for, it could be a distancing measure or it could’ve been a vain hope for a quicklynch...

@forbiddanlight: how many forum mafia games have you completed, and what sites have you played on? Are you a new player or an experienced player?

[Adel]

@forbiddanlight:
1. how many forum mafia games have you completed?
2. what sites have you played on?
3. In general, are you a new player or an experienced player?
4. When did you read the previous run of the last Polygamist Mafia?
5. Did you read all of it? Which parts?

[Adel]

It would be very helpful if each pair of lovers could identify one other pair they feel is confident of being town.

[Adel]

thanks for sending out prods.

~~~

Gimbo has been banned (ruining a newbie game).

who here is shocked by Gimbo getting banned for ruining a game?

[Adel]

forbiddanlight -> clears -> Spyrex
Chelseafan -> clears -> Firestarter

any others?

I assure you, if I can get 100% participation the town stands a very good chance of winning, better than 60%.

[Adel]

they are just a list of the people who read the last page and posted an answer to:

It would be very helpful if each pair of lovers could identify one other pair they feel is confident of being town.

~~~

chenhsi, your lack of participation is really starting to annoy me. Frankly I would rather play with Gimbo than you right now since he at least bothered to read the thread and post some content.

If you just want to read mafia games why do you bother joining?

[Adel]

forbiddanlight -> clears -> Spyrex
Chelseafan -> clears -> Firestarter
ZeekLTK -> clears -> Firestarter

group participation is needed for this to work. I thought about it for a while, and I think it will work better if both members of each pair made a submission.

[Adel]

3. In general, are you a new player or an experienced player? I'm considered mid tier at most of my home forums. Probably very low tier here.

4. When did you read the previous run of the last Polygamist Mafia? I didn't. I probably SHOULD have, but I basically went into this game blind. Which partially explains the subduedness because I have no idea what to do except try to hunt scum.

was spies 5 your first time as scum?

[Adel]

forbiddanlight -> clears -> Spyrex
Chelseafan -> clears -> Firestarter
ZeekLTK -> clears -> Firestarter
Nameless -> clears -> Spyrex

who else wants to cooperate?

[Adel]

'sup shy guy. we are in endgame. Once you have read through, please tell me which players is the most likely to be town.

[Adel]

I generally classify players into categories by the number of gameposts they've made. I had a hunch that you were more experienced at forum mafia then just the ~300 gameposts you've made here. Within spies 5 I found a reference to that being the first time you were scum, as well as another where you made a sweeping generalization about how you behave when you are a werewolf. I'm looking at your past performances as scum to see if there is anything to clear you of being scum in this game.

Do you still claim to have completed about 21 games of forum mafia?

[Adel]

Adel what is the point of this list you are compiling and why haven't you provided a name for it?

are you getting nervous?
The point of the list is to collect the data necessary to out scum.

[Adel]

it was in the "critique the spies" thread

[Adel]

I am getting curious as to what you're doing...

one of the only systematic ways to identify mafia is voting analysis. Since there was only one real wagon day 1, and we can't afford a mislynch on day 2, I need a data set that is as objective as possible.

It seems to me that compiling a list like this will only help the scum (either yourself or others) determine who the easiest town target is to push for a mislynch (or, at the very least, the hardest target - to stay away from). Maybe you and Fire aren't scum, but you and someone else are... now you see a couple players think Fire is town so you won't go after him because you think it's unlikely he'll be mislynched.

Discussing scum tactics is generally a bad idea.

During pahse 1 of this process I will be collecting data.
During phase 2 I will present my data.
In phase 3 I present the conclusions.

The entire process is quite transparent. I can't disclose exactly where I am going with this, for fear of tipping off the scum, but it should be pretty clear that I am generating more information for the town.

SpyreX and Fire have been listed twice (and me once, but you left that off)

I did? would you quote the post where you were named? I didn't mean to skip it.

... if both (or either) are scum then this list is going to be detrimental to scum hunting because people will see they are "most thought of to be town" and look elsewhere...

that is one way to use the list. There are others.

I just don't see how it will help the town and DO see how it could help the scum... so I'm wondering why you are doing it.

sorry, I'm not about to explain how it can trap scum.

Also you still didn't say why you haven't given a name.

oh, I thought you meant a name for the list, as in a title for the list.
I'd prefer to be the last one to give a name... it seems like my answer would catch several players by suprise, and since I apprently have so much pro-town karma right now, I would hate for other players of less certain alignment to hide behind my opinion.

[Adel]

forbiddanlight -> clears -> Spyrex
Chelseafan -> clears -> Firestarter
ZeekLTK -> clears -> Firestarter
Spyrex -> clears -> ZeekLTK (post 411)
Nameless -> clears -> Spyrex

I'm not surew how I missed Spyrex's post at 411.

[Adel]

unvote, vote:Firestarter

[Adel]

nope, sorry. have fun though.

[Adel]

The entire process is quite transparent. I can't disclose exactly where I am going with this, for fear of tipping off the scum, but it should be pretty clear that I am generating more information for the town.

I'd prefer to be the last one to give a name... it seems like my answer would catch several players by suprise, and since I apprently have so much pro-town karma right now, I would hate for other players of less certain alignment to hide behind my opinion.

note that I posted these lines before Firestarter's 441 and 443.

[Adel]

My problem is that although compiling a list like this can be helpful to town (I cant see it in this case at the moment), it can also help scum to narrow down a target that would seem convincing to the rest.

ah, but I am not asking for a suspect, I am asking for a non-suspect.

You wanting to be the last to name your suspect would fit in nicely if you are scum.

I am not asking for a suspect, I am asking for a non-suspect. If I was trying to identify a safe person to push a mislynch on,

and

I was asking for most-suspicious person, your theory would make sense.

This is a possibilty that town would be foolish to rule out given we're at lylo.
In saying that, Im happy to see your conclusions at the end of this, but you do not need this list to name your top suspect(s) at this time.

So you are asking for me to list my top suspects? WTF! Are you really making the supreme scum blunder of doing exactly the scummy thing you are accusing your targeted townie of doing? What luck!

[Adel]

@Firestarter: please provide the name of your non-suspect so that we can carry on with this process.

[Adel]

What Zeek would bothered to actually read day 1 of newbie 540 he would've found me acting in a very direct manner that he would consider to be pro-town. That he isn't actually doing his research (unlike what I've done with forbiddenlight) he wouldn't be making this case. He is pretending to scumhunt, and attacking me for doing actual scumhunting.

And your whole "Chelsea clears Gimbo thing" - you keep bringing that up as such a "great idea" but do we all forget that you admitted to Nameless that it technically wouldn't even have cleared Gimbo if we did it?

I encourage other players to carefully reread day 1 and consider this comment. Is it sincere?

[Adel]

Her vote on me, imo, is to silence me..

or was it to get a response out of you?

and a lack of a coherent case to vote for me in the first place.

absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. I have not publically posted my case against you.

~~~

Chelseafan is my name, but I wanted chensi to get replaced before I went on the record as saying that. Replacing into pressure is much harder than replacing into zero-pressure.

[Adel]

@Adel (again): It would be pretty obvious if somebody changed their minds just because you believe a player innocent. Since the list was your idea the fact you intend to "clear" somebody last is suspicious and who is to say YOU aren't going to do the exact same thing?

see my last post

[Adel]

forbiddanlight -> clears -> Spyrex
Chelseafan -> clears -> Firestarter
ZeekLTK -> clears -> Firestarter
Spyrex -> clears -> ZeekLTK
Nameless -> clears -> Spyrex
Shy Guy -> clears -> Havery Pew
Adel -> clears -> Chelseafan

which ones did I leave off, and where would they fit in the list by chronological order?

[Adel]

forbiddanlight -> clears -> Spyrex
Chelseafan -> clears -> Firestarter
ZeekLTK -> clears -> Firestarter
Firestarter -> clears -> Spyrex
Harvey -> clears -> Spyrex
Spyrex -> clears -> ZeekLTK
Nameless -> clears -> Spyrex
Shy Guy -> clears -> Harvey
Adel -> clears -> Chelseafan

only chensi is left.

[Adel]

Rules

1. Be active. I will prod players on request if they have not posted in the thread for 48 hours or more. I will prod players on my own initiative if I notice you have not posted for 96 hours. Failure to post in the thread within 72 hours of receiving the prod will result in you being replaced.
   
2. I reserve the right to add or modify rules as required.
   
3. Have fun. It's a game, yeah? Don't take it too seriously, but play to win.

Chenhsi has not been active in this game. He has posted the minimal amount necessary to avoid being prodded. His lack of commitment to this game makes it less fun for the other players.

Please consider replacing him.

[Adel]

for example, he has made 20 posts in other games, as recently as today, since his last post in this game. A survey of the posts he has made in this game reveals a person not paying attention, and not involved with the game.

[Adel]

"Adel -> clears -> Chelseafan"

I knew it.

I almost gave that exact example in my last post:

I even typed out "I wouldn't be surprised if you try to tell us you think Chelsea is the most town player and then try to say your whole case against him was crap and you are going to claim you were just saying that to trick/trap people like you did by attacking MoS and then suddenly turning on everyone who followed you in the MoS game".

And sure enough...

you probably should go ahead and read the game you are referencing, since you are getting it so wrong-- it would save us all from having to read a bunch of worthless words.

[Adel]

I wish ShyGuy would've replaced in day 1.

[Adel]

Ok, first set of crossouts: I am town.

This is the assumption that will make us lose.

that was the assumption we had to start with to make any progress in the last run of polygamist. You really should take a look at that day 2.

~~~

regarding gimbo's lynch-- When my very own lover ignored everything I said and voted for him, I impulsively said "fuck it" and hammered. I lacked the courage and commitment to stick with the case I felt to be right, I was worried about how much of a fool I would look like if we lost this game because Gimbo was scum and Chlsea was town. Having never played with Gimbo before, I didn't understand why he would try to cause that much chaos if he were town.

I decided that if a Chlsea-town lynch would leave Gimbo 80% cleared, then a Gimbo lynch would leave Chlsea at least 60% cleared.
~~~
Why did people disregard my case for lynching Chelsea instead of Gimbo? It seemed so clear and logical to me, I was left feeling really frustrated by how nobody adopted it. Nobody did, not even my lover?

Who presented a case againt the lynch Chelsea plan that proved overwhelming?
~~~

@Mod: Please replace Chenshi

You have a rule requiring players to be active, and he is not following it.

~~~

[Adel]

that was the assumption we had to start with to make any progress in the last run of polygamist. You really should take a look at that day 2.

Is this why you asked all those questions? To see who was the most town so we could make this assumption? I personally don't like how you've been playing. Spyrex isn't as hot as I thought either, but that's more intuition.

The data point we used (at my suggestion, mind you) during that game was "who was willing to lynch whom, as shown by the voting record".

For this game, especially since we only had one wagon on day 1, I identified the need for a seperate data set, hence the questions.

I had two hopes for day 1:
1. get two or more strong wagons going (to enable day 2 deductions)
2. postpone the inevitable massclaim (to trap poorly coordinated scum or scum who improvise badly).

Needless to say, I'm not happy with how day 1 turned out.

~~~~

Once Chensi (or better yet, his replacement) posts a name for the "most likely to not be scum" list, I suggest that we use the list (in reverse order) and name the two couples we are willing to lynch.

this would be the order:

chenshi --> posts --> name of person he considers least likely to be scum
chenshi --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Adel --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Shy Guy --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Nameless --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Spyrex --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Harvey --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Firestarter --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
ZeekLTK --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Chelseafan --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
forbiddanlight --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

~~~

here is the current list: forbiddanlight -> clears -> Spyrex
Chelseafan -> clears -> Firestarter
ZeekLTK -> clears -> Firestarter
Firestarter -> clears -> Spyrex
Harvey -> clears -> Spyrex
Spyrex -> clears -> ZeekLTK
Nameless -> clears -> Spyrex
Shy Guy -> clears -> Harvey
Adel -> clears -> Chelseafan

please point out any mistake I may have made soonest.

[Adel]

I am too. But, wouldn't it be a great gambit by scum to place a vote down, have the second vote (his lover's) fall down...and then nothing happens...so you all declare it safe to lynch, and BAM, the scum jump on, the town jumps on, we've lost. I don't like it.

Why did you place a third vote on Chlseafan earlier?

[Adel]

I dont know if its a mistake or what, but I sure do not agree with what I said earlier based on the last few pages so.

specifically?

[Adel]

Because if Chelsea is scum, my vote doesn't affect anything except by bringing him closer to a successful lynch. If he was town, the scum are going to pile on it anyway, and I wanted to have a measure of control over that. I anticipated the vote would switch to me when I did that. Guess what we are back at? 2 votes on Chelsea. I can now pull it back if the scum jump Chelsea. I'm also confident I'll be around to do that. It's a security measure. You can kill me if you like for it, just that you'll lose the game.

~~~

time passes

~~~

I am too. But, wouldn't it be a great gambit by scum to place a vote down, have the second vote (his lover's) fall down...and then nothing happens...so you all declare it safe to lynch, and BAM, the scum jump on, the town jumps on, we've lost. I don't like it.

Why did you place a third vote on Chlseafan earlier?

Explained that already. I knew one of you would switch to me when I did it. So I was prepared to retract if scum jumped on it. I probably also said something to the effect of if no one jumps on it Chelsea is scum. Let me rectify that now by saying that would have been a stupid belief.

[Adel]

~~~

regarding gimbo's lynch-- When my very own lover ignored everything I said and voted for him, I impulsively said "fuck it" and hammered.

Adel, I thought that you'd agreed to vote with Spryex, and once he voted you voted. Why are you now calling this decision impulsive and triggered by his vote, rather than the discussion preceding it? It seems you are offering a different explanation for this action than you did back then, and indeed a different explanation for this action than your lover offered a few posts ago.

My lover has no way of knowing what is going on in my head. It was impulsive for me to go along with his vote, I should've pulled rank, called him an idiot, and continued to push for the Chelsea-lynch. Instead, I was weak and went along with him.

I lacked the courage and commitment to stick with the case I felt to be right, I was worried about how much of a fool I would look like if we lost this game because Gimbo was scum and Chlsea was town. Having never played with Gimbo before, I didn't understand why he would try to cause that much chaos if he were town.

I decided that if a Chlsea-town lynch would leave Gimbo 80% cleared, then a Gimbo lynch would leave Chlsea at least 60% cleared.

Did you say this anywhere day one? Did you say this anywhere before now?

Not that I recall, after day 1, I moped around for a couple pages, and thought of a way to go forward.

Why did people disregard my case for lynching Chelsea instead of Gimbo? It seemed so clear and logical to me, I was left feeling really frustrated by how nobody adopted it. Nobody did, not even my lover?

From my experience playing with you, and in one game specifically, Mr. Stoofer's Space Monkeys 2, you didn't seem to be the type that backed down easily and gave up when things got tough. Am I wrong?

When I'm scum I am not plauged with self-doubt. In longer games I am able to take a longer view, and know that things should average out as the result of good play. I knew that if Gimbo was scum and Chlsea was town, then I would bear pretty much full responsibility for losing the game.

Who presented a case againt the lynch Chelsea plan that proved overwhelming?

I don't recall anyone doing so -- am I wrong? I recall it not being accepted without skepticism, and you resigning yourself to a Gimbo lynch when you could easily have pushed harder.

Nobody resisted it? There weren't any long posts in response to it?

@Mod: Please replace Chenshi

You have a rule requiring players to be active, and he is not following it.

Why do you, specifically, care if Chenhsi is replaced?

[/quote]
There is no excuse for lurking in this game. He isn't a power-role, he is posting in other games, and there is a rule requiring us to be active.
If he is scum he is present enough to drop a hammer, so there is no downside to him getting replaced. Plus, I hate lurking as a playstyle. Right now I have his couple as being mostly cleared, but I would really like evidence to reject that notion, or re-enforce it. For my network analysis I could really use symmetery of inputs since it really helps my pattern recognition.

[Adel]

Let's skip lots of back and forth quote pyramids.

lol.

~~~~

A strawman, trying to accuse me of inconsistancy.

more like I was trying to illustrate the problems of trying to determine the motivation of a early vote on someone:
~scum trying to wagon
~scum trying to distance
~town trying to test alignment of votee
~town trying to flush scum

all of these motivations could be ascribed to the same behavior

[Adel]

And yeah, I saw your "reason" but that's not really a reason. - hence my comment. Was Chelsea lynched? No. So we don't know if there was distancing/bussing going on.

I find it alarming that you and Adel both keep trying to tell the town that scum will never bus each other in this game.

The fact that the stakes are so high (LyLo already) and townies are so cautious to vote near the end of wagons means it is highly likely that scum will (and probably have already) bus each other knowing that the wagon will be flimsy and easy to disband if it does get going.

I have said no such thing. In fact, I've abandoned my usual technique of using multipule wagons as a source of information during this day 2 because I do not expect it will yield useful information... especially since that was the exact technique we used to win in the previous run of this setup.

~~~

@Adel -

Sorry, after the last few pages Zeek no longer would be who I cleared at all. Lets let the OMGUS rein and I'll say, like I did in my crossing off, I would clear Chelsea since EVERY ONE ELSE was willing to vote for her.

As for your upcoming questions: I'd vote for either Zeek / Shy Guy.

no claiming out of order. I'm keeping your original "SpyreX -> clears -> ZeekLTK" because that is what you said at the time, and keeping the claims in the order they were recieved is important.

~~~

@ Adel - Now would be a good time to present your planned argument based on the question you asked the town. It's pretty clear we're not getting an answer from Chenshi anytime soon, and the original question was just to each pair rather than individual. Adding another question now seems a bit of a delaying tactic.

half of the point of the original list was to use the reverse order of the voluntary list of least suspected in order to get a claim order for "most suspicious". Scum will probably have claimed in the order that feels most comfortable for them, and this way they are forced to claim in an order that least suites thier playstyle and relationships with each other.

Once Chensi (or better yet, his replacement) posts a name for the "most likely to not be scum" list, I suggest that we use the list (in reverse order) and name the two couples we are willing to lynch.

this would be the order:

chenshi --> posts --> name of person he considers least likely to be scum
chenshi --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Adel --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Shy Guy --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Nameless --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Spyrex --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Harvey --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Firestarter --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
ZeekLTK --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
Chelseafan --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum
forbiddanlight --> posts --> name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

~~~

here is the current list: forbiddanlight -> clears -> Spyrex
Chelseafan -> clears -> Firestarter
ZeekLTK -> clears -> Firestarter
Firestarter -> clears -> Spyrex
Harvey -> clears -> Spyrex
Spyrex -> clears -> ZeekLTK
Nameless -> clears -> Spyrex
Shy Guy -> clears -> Harvey
Adel -> clears -> Chelseafan

please point out any mistake I may have made soonest.

rather than a delaying tactic, this is an essential step in the data collection process.

~~~

Second set of crossouts: The fact that early on every group was willing to vote for chelsea (one member, for this, I am including as two) makes me logically think they are town.

I've said this before but this is BAD LOGIC because the mafia are still going to carefully bus and lie regarding their intent, so unless somebody is actually involved in a lynch we can not be particularly certain they were willing to do so at all.

I agree. Because I have no faith in that process to work in this game (because the scum had a chance to read the first run of this game), I developed a different process to use in this game. That process did work in the first run of this game, partly because we had multipule wagons on day one, and also because some members of the scum team didn't see it comming. The fact that the scum have not been able to communicate since the game started means that we have a chance of forcing information out of them and use it to trap them so long as they don't know exactly how we are going to use the information.
~~~

I will admit the "anyone but us" comment was rather selfish, and I shouldn't dismiss chen on a meta read. But, personally, I think that that lead will be the one that's most iffy given that meta. In other games where 1 didn't kill all, I'd be all for a chen lynch (I wouldn't let him live to lylo). However, since one takes them all out, I think pursuing one of the other scum possibilities is safer. Just my opinion.

which is a great case for replacing him. He isn't participating, he should go.

~~~

Adel -- to answer your question, your partner's opposition to your plan seems to be the strongest you encountered, and it was not particularly a long post, just opposed to your idea. I seem to be seeing only one other long-ish opposing post. Do you think it is fair to say you gave up rather quickly, and easily?

to a reread it probably does. At the time it seemed pretty hopeless to try to continue it. If you had replaced into a day 2 where Gimbo was still alive and chelsea-town had been lynched, wouldn't it look like I had saved my scum-buddy Gimbo from a lynch? Would a Chelsea-town lynch really have given us a day 2 with a cleared Gimbo?

~~~

2.) Zeek's attacks on Adel have been thin (see his lastest post) and have parroted other objections. Not to mention even in his Day 1 posts like I said before he starts painting a case to push today on us.

What do other people think of Zeek's attacks on me? Thin or substancial?

~~~
It would be pretty cool if other people joined me is asking "

Mod: please replace chenshi for breaking your stated rules by remaining inactive

"

Why aren't other people joining me?

[Adel]

EBWOP:

Second set of crossouts: The fact that early on every group was willing to vote for chelsea (one member, for this, I am including as two) makes me logically think they are town.

I've said this before but this is BAD LOGIC because the mafia are still going to carefully bus and lie regarding their intent, so unless somebody is actually involved in a lynch we can not be particularly certain they were willing to do so at all.

I agree. Because I have no faith in that process to work in this game (because the scum had a chance to read the first run of this game), I developed a different process to use in this game. That process did work in the first run of this game, partly because we had multipule wagons on day one, and also because some members of the scum team didn't see it comming. The fact that the scum have not been able to communicate since the game started means that we have a chance of forcing information out of them and use it to trap them so long as they don't know exactly how we are going to use the information.

[Adel]

seriously dude, start reading the game and start posting. You are creating a serious "no fun zone" with this stunt, like the player that takes an hour to make a move in Spades, Risk or social Chess.

[Adel]

could you at least tell us who you think is the least likely to be scum, and which two players (not from a signle pair) you think are the most likely to be scum?

[Adel]

what are the posting requirements? >one barely game related line a week?

[Adel]

~~~

regarding gimbo's lynch-- When my very own lover ignored everything I said and voted for him, I impulsively said "fuck it" and hammered.

Adel, I thought that you'd agreed to vote with Spryex, and once he voted you voted. Why are you now calling this decision impulsive and triggered by his vote, rather than the discussion preceding it? It seems you are offering a different explanation for this action than you did back then, and indeed a different explanation for this action than your lover offered a few posts ago.

My lover has no way of knowing what is going on in my head. It was impulsive for me to go along with his vote

Adel, I'm wondering -- where exactly did you say you would vote with your partner, if you did say this? Spryex introduced the idea that you did this, and I'm not finding it. Was he just confused? Did I misinterpret him somewhere?

-I don't remember saying anything to that effect.
-possibly
- probably not, since you are digging through our post record and we are typing off of memory (I think he is, I know I am)

I lacked the courage and commitment to stick with the case I felt to be right, I was worried about how much of a fool I would look like if we lost this game because Gimbo was scum and Chlsea was town. Having never played with Gimbo before, I didn't understand why he would try to cause that much chaos if he were town.

I decided that if a Chlsea-town lynch would leave Gimbo 80% cleared, then a Gimbo lynch would leave Chlsea at least 60% cleared.

Did you say this anywhere day one? Did you say this anywhere before now?

Not that I recall, after day 1, I moped around for a couple pages, and thought of a way to go forward.

It seems, then, you are providing ex post facto justification for your actions, and justification that conflicts with your description that the action was just "impulsive" and indeed the incorrect action.

I actually have a pretty sad habit of getting frustrated and doing impulsive stuff as town. I get really pissed at players in this game from time to time in this game a sometimes cope by and killing them

When I'm scum I am not plauged with self-doubt. In longer games I am able to take a longer view, and know that things should average out as the result of good play. I knew that if Gimbo was scum and Chlsea was town, then I would bear pretty much full responsibility for losing the game.

Were Gimbo town and Chelsea scum, would you not have had pretty much full responsibility for winning it? By going along with the crowd, if Chelsea is scum, aren't you assuming pretty much full responsibility for losing the game if we lose it because you stifled what you knew to be the only voice of reason -- your own?

I wish you had replaced in day 1.

Adel -- to answer your question, your partner's opposition to your plan seems to be the strongest you encountered, and it was not particularly a long post, just opposed to your idea. I seem to be seeing only one other long-ish opposing post. Do you think it is fair to say you gave up rather quickly, and easily?

to a reread it probably does. At the time it seemed pretty hopeless to try to continue it. If you had replaced into a day 2 where Gimbo was still alive and chelsea-town had been lynched, wouldn't it look like I had saved my scum-buddy Gimbo from a lynch? Would a Chelsea-town lynch really have given us a day 2 with a cleared Gimbo?

How is this relevant? Does it matter how convinced I would have been? What seems to matter is that

you

believed that a Chelsea town-lynch would have cleared Gimbo, and proceeded to lynch Gimbo anyways.

Yes I did. Those points are relevant because they were some of the doubts I was grappling with. I can usually convince myself that anyone is scum in a game, and I can usually be counted on to talk myself out of knowing that someone who is scum is scum.

I find it alarming that you and Adel both keep trying to tell the town that scum will never bus each other in this game.

I have said no such thing.

Adel, then, may I ask what rationale are you using to clear Chelseafan and chenhsi?[/quote]
Gimbo was town. Nobody on the Gimbo wagon showed any interest in my idea to clear Gimbo, nobody went out of their way to attack my idea to clear Gimbo by lynching Chlesea. I have more significant doubts about everyone else.

I like ZeekLTK's points about Spryex; they mirror my own. He seems to have turned on ZeekLTK and myself because we are attacking his partner and ergo him. I am becoming increasingly convinced that I am really onto something about Adel and Spryex.

Speaking from personal experience, whenever I spend that many words attacking someone I always end up utterly convinced that they are scum. Are you finding what you are looking for because you are trying so hard to find it?

[Adel]

2.) Zeek's attacks on Adel have been thin (see his lastest post) and have parroted other objections. Not to mention even in his Day 1 posts like I said before he starts painting a case to push today on us.

What do other people think of Zeek's attacks on me? Thin or substantial?

[Adel]

I'm back, after takin some time away.

A few things. As for the whole me and Adel with the hammer. Adel's post 32:

hey, SpyreX, would you mind unvoting? We can hammer together in 48 hours or so.

Thats why I thought Adel was going to hammer with me. Now, after I said I was dropping my vote, I assumed it was going to be both of us, and it was.

I'd totally forgotten about that.

[Adel]

... Then again, Adel hasn't exactly struck me as the kind of person to forget something as notable as that. But either way it's not something you should really be using as the basis of a case against someone, especially after that pair has brought it up and given an explanation. So that kind of makes me wary of Shy Guy.

...

Is anybody thinking of a Shy Guy / forbiddanlight / ZeekLTK / Harvey Pew scum group right now? Because considering how hard they're pushing fairly weak cases, I know I am.

which would leave Firestarter/Nameless - SpyreX/Adel - Chelseafan/Chenshi as the 100% - townie wagon needed for us to win.

~~~

Is it just me, or has forbiddanlight been a lot less active in this game since I mentioned how deep a meta check I did on her.

~~~~

In any event, I welcome a response by Adel, and any questions, comments, and insights about this from everyone.

~ How many games of mine have you read at least part of?

~ I never considered the post where I was asked Spyrex to unvote (saying that we can hammer in 48 hours or so) to be a promise to hammer with Spyrex in 48 hours.

In sum, Adel, how can I take you to be doing anything but lying about your hammer on Gimbo? How was it impulsive when you promised to do it 48 hours before?

Also, how can I take your case on Chelseafan as serious scum hunting when you abandon it so easily to vote Gimbo with your partner -- a vote that you had already promised before you even introduced the case on Chelseafan?

It wasn't a promise, only SpyreX thought it was.
Was it less than 48 hours between when I tried to start a Chelsea wagon and when I tossed in a hammer as well? It felt like a much longer period of time to me.

[Adel]

In sum, Adel, how can I take you to be doing anything but lying about your hammer on Gimbo? How was it impulsive when you promised to do it 48 hours before?

Also, how can I take your case on Chelseafan as serious scum hunting when you abandon it so easily to vote Gimbo with your partner -- a vote that you had already promised before you even introduced the case on Chelseafan?

It wasn't a promise, only SpyreX thought it was.
Was it less than 48 hours between when I tried to start a Chelsea wagon and when I tossed in a hammer as well? It felt like a much longer period of time to me.

Yes it was about 48 hours. Why give up so easily??

- Gimbo pissed me off by being so scummy
- Spyrex pissed me off by ignoring my Chelsea case
- I got worried that I was talking myself out of an accurate lynch, possibly with disastrous consequences. (the "Gimbo must be scum with adel since we lynched Chlseafan-town" scenario)
- I didn't know that it was close to 48 hours, or just 48 hours. It felt like long enough to get some result, but I had none, not even a nibble.
- So I made a choice, type out some long post attempting to defend the indefensible Gimbo, or just say "Fuck it" and lynch him and move on to day 2.
- btw, my read on SSF towards the end of day 1 was that he saw which way the game was going, and just said "fuck it" knowing that Gimbo would either die day 1 or day 2. I figured that if he were town he would've been making some serious attempt to help the town. If he were scum, his actions made more sense to me, as in "why get involved in a futile battle".

[Adel]

EBWOP:- I didn't know that it was close to 48 hours, or just 48 hours, since I didn't intend for that post I made to be interpreted as a "promise", "we

can hammer

in 48 hours" was the part you focused on, the poart I was really interested in was getting Spyrex to unvote. It felt like enough time had gone by to get some result from my Chelseafan case, but my case had none, not even a nibble.

[Adel]

It felt like I was trying to explain how a specific geological formation was the result of an unusual mix of glacier and wind erosion, only to notice that my audience was a bunch of young-earth creationists. I was wasting my breath.

[Adel]

Be active. I will prod players on request if they have not posted in the thread for 48 hours or more. I will prod players on my own initiative if I notice you have not posted for 96 hours. Failure to post in the thread within 72 hours of receiving the prod will result in you being replaced.

mod

please prod chenshi

[Adel]

What do you think about Zeek's play this game?

I don't like it. First there was that analysis which may or may not have been biased. Then he went from me to you all on admittedly weak cases. But I still feel there is distancing factor here, and that the scum team could be Harvey/Zeek/Adel/SpyreX

scumtell of the day: accusing your target of what you are guilty of.

if forbiddenlight is scum: she just made a couple of posts trying to distance herself from her partners, and now she is accusing them of trying to distance themselves from us. Distancing was on her mind, and so that tool was on top of her toolbox so she found a use for it.

Does that make sense to anyone?

[Adel]

sadly, yes.

[Adel]

EBWOP: OMGUS scumtell of the day: doing what you've been accusing your target of

if forbiddenlight is scum: she has been accusing Zeek of trying to distance himself from me and SpyrX as a way of distancing herself from Zeek.

does that make sense to anyone?

[Adel]

yeah, the trick to this setup is determining who is town as much as it is determining who is scum.

I would really like chenshi to get replaced so that my stalled process of collecting data for quantitative analysis can continue.

chenshi: please read the thread, and post who you think is the most likely to be town, and which two players (non-lovers) you think are most likely to be scum

[Adel]

does it work as an explain for her observed behavior?
If "yes" then the conclusion would mean that she is slightly more likely to be scum. If the answer is "no" then the conclusion would a null-tell.

[Adel]

thank you chenshi, I look foward to reading your post tomarrow.

[Adel]

mod:

please prod Shyguy and Zeek and Harvey Pew and Chelseafan. Please reconsider replacing chenshi for not being even close to active in this game.

[Adel]

claim order:

chenshi --> posts -->

name of person he considers least likely to be scum

chenshi --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Adel --> posts -->

Zeek & Firestarter

Shy Guy --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Nameless --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Spyrex --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Harvey --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Firestarter --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

ZeekLTK --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Chelseafan --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

forbiddanlight --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Shy Guy is next to post. Posts out of the claim order will not be counted.

[Adel]

hey Shy Guy, what do you think of Firestarter's repeated promises to reread and post comments, and

@Nameless..
At this point, my thoughts on the A/S pairing is that I get a mild town vibe from Spyrex and a stronger scum read from Adel.

So, as a pair together, I get a scum read from them.

My thoughts on this pair have changed significantly since Adels actions several pages back, and her unwillingness to answer questions basically on anything. There are other reasons that Im aiming at posting today or tomorrow.

Saying that, my thoughts on the Forbidden/Shy Guy pair have significantly changed also.. this is down to Shy Guy being an obviously better player than K42 was in just a few posts, I'd previuosly thought of K42 as a misguided and very naive townie.
But skimming through Shy Guys synopsis, there is a certain amount of content that didn't need to be there.. or as you so eloquently put it my lover... Waffling.

and now he is holding off until the "who is most likely scum" claim process is done?

[Adel]

I'm sorry, is your name Shy Guy?

Why don't you go ahead and post your two hour post so that we don'y have to worry about you losing all of that work.

[Adel]

and you can feel free to change your mind about who the two most likely to scum are when it gets around to being your turn.

[Adel]

Im sorry... you implicity referred to me in that post.....

Dont be an idiot about it....

I honestly thought you were bullshitting us. I stand corrected.

[Adel]

I don't see any reason to get worried. We aren't under deadline pressure, and so long as activity stays up we should've have to worry about one.

Just waiting on Shy Guy... did he pick up his prod?

[Adel]

So for us it becomes a matter of figuring out which of the six is town. When it is only one person attacking you it is easy to figure that that person must be scum. There is also a very real chance that two of them are town. With three people making attacks on us we know that at least one of them is sincere, so if we are able to identify that person then we are a step closer to solving this game.

[Adel]

claim order:

chenshi --> posts -->

name of person he considers least likely to be scum

chenshi --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Adel --> posts -->

Zeek & Firestarter

Shy Guy --> posts -->

Nameless & Zeek

Nameless --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Spyrex --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Harvey --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Firestarter --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

ZeekLTK --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Chelseafan --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

forbiddanlight --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Nameless is next to claim. Posts out of the claim order will not be counted.

[Adel]

claim order:

chenshi --> posts -->

name of person he considers least likely to be scum

chenshi --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Adel --> posts -->

Zeek & Firestarter

Shy Guy --> posts -->

Nameless & Chenshi

Nameless --> posts -->

Forbiddenlight & Zeek

Spyrex --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

Harvey --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

Firestarter --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

ZeekLTK --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

Chelseafan --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

forbiddanlight --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

Spyrex is next to claim. Posts out of the claim order will not be counted.

[Adel]

claim order:

chenshi --> posts -->

name of person he considers least likely to be scum

chenshi --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers msot likely to be scum

Adel --> posts -->

Zeek & Firestarter

Shy Guy --> posts -->

Nameless & Chenshi

Nameless --> posts -->

Forbiddenlight & Zeek

Spyrex --> posts -->

Zeek & Shy Guy

Harvey --> posts -->

Chelseafan and Forbiddenlight

Firestarter --> posts -->

Adel & Chleseafan

ZeekLTK --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

Chelseafan --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

forbiddanlight --> posts -->

name of two couples he considers most likely to be scum

Zeek is next.

@chenshi: please read the thread and let us know who you think is most likely to be town, and which two players you feel are most likely to be scum.

@Chelseafan: since your partner is actively not participating, please try to make up for it by being more active. Currently you are lurking as well. If you are town, this lack of participation will make it much less likely that the town will win.

[Adel]

So why am I the only person who has to say who I think is least likely to be scum?

If you'd been reading the damn thread you would've seen that everyone else has already posted that information except for you.

[Adel]

mod:

would you prod Zeek please?

[Adel]

unvote, vote:ZeekLTK

~~~

@armix, once you've done your reread please provide the name of one player you think is the least likely to be scum, and the name of two non-partners who you think are the most likely to be scum.

[Adel]

actually, part of the trick depends upon you distilling your opinion down to three names. The rest would be gravy, but please make your three choice distinct from the rest.

[Adel]

I'm Armlx's lover.

Why did you feel it necessary to post this?

[Adel]

I don't see why it isn't relevant. I think we should have claimed pairs at the start of the game (I haven't reread, so I don't know if this happened).

I'm Armlx's lover.

Why did you feel it necessary to post this?

@Shy Guy: what do you make of this?

[Adel]

I agree that the game is pretty stalled.

unvote, vote:Skruffs

Shy Guy was on to something with how I didn't have a good reason to place Chelseafan (now Skruffs) on my "cleared" list. The best I had was that if Chlseafan was scum then there would've been stronger opposition to my "lynch Chlseafan rather than Gimbo) case. I now see that not nearly as much time passed between me making that case, and me giving up and hammering Gimbo.

I suspect that Zeek is scum with Skruffs, so I'll be watching Harvey pretty closely.

[Adel]

Adel then agrees with Shy Guy and votes one of the players. Does not strike ANYONE as a blatant scum gambit, the exact kind of thing that Adel does on a regular basis?? I just came from a "MetaMafia" game where I analyzed ADel's posts very closely (She was scum) and found a bussing tie between her and the last real mafia player. I got lynched anyways, because I am apparently not a very good salesman, but I totally got into ADel's head and I know how she works.

Link this game for me, please. I'd love to have more back up on my thoughts of Adel/SpyreX/Zeek/Harvey. Though, given armix's blantent defense of her, I'm rather willing to change my mind.

it is metabreaking mafia, look on my wikipage for a link. I was scum, and did a light bus of my partner day 1, later day 1 ABR tried his damnest to get me lynched (as he does in literally

every

game we play together) and ABR and I were both nightkilled night 1. Skruffy replaced in at the end of the game, and in LYLO had to argue that his unconfirmed mason partner (my scum partner that I bussed on day 1) was scum.

Becuase I was nightkilled night 1, and the interaction I had with ABR, my day 1 relationhip with surye(sp?) was pretty transparent. shaft.ed (the other surviving member of the town at endgame) ended up voting for Skruffs and losing the game for the town, in part because he has a lot more experience playing with me than Skruffs, and he didn't think Skruffs presented a convincing argument. Skruffs case against me was pretty accurate, but I think shaft.ed didn't buy that I was that transparent of a player.

[Adel]

For everyone's reference, I'd like Adel to answer:

Some questions I have for Adel -- have you considered that Chelseafan just never thought about the implications of or even never realized that all other lover pairs were willing to lynch Gimbo? Why was scum bus-ing implausible at the stage you asked Chelseafan?

The latest two questions I've asked of her in 714.

I have considered that Chlseafan wasn't paying attention. I thought it was very plausible that Chlseafan was lyning when he said that he was willing to lynch Gimbo.

[Adel]

sorry, I'm suffering from a serious case of "Mafia is stupid and pointless" I can't concentrate in games right now.

My response to most of Shy Guy's questions is "shrug"

[Adel]

are these serious questions?

Thanks Adel, but could you please elaborate on both counts:

Some questions I have for Adel -- have you considered that Chelseafan just never thought about the implications of or even never realized that all other lover pairs were willing to lynch Gimbo?

I have considered that Chlseafan wasn't paying attention.

How likely do you think it was that he wasn't paying attention?

Why was scum bus-ing implausible at the stage you asked Chelseafan?

I thought it was very plausible that Chlseafan was lyning when he said that he was willing to lynch Gimbo.

What did you think about the other players who said they were willing to lynch Gimbo?

They all lynched Gimbo, right, except for Harvey Pew.

Do you think they were all telling the truth?

about lynching Gimbo? apparently, gimbo got lynched, right?

I'd like it very much if you discussed the likelihood of it in general, and if you care to, for each particular pair.

of people not wanting to lynch Gimbo? wtf are you talking about?

Also if you had/have any speculation about what Chelseafan might have thought about the legitimacy of the declared intent of each group to vote Gimbo, I would welcome that as well.

your writing + my reading comprehension = noise

what are you looking for here? I don't see why Chlseafan would think that anyone was not sincere about wanting to lynch Gimbo. There were more than enough players who wanted to lynch Gimbo.

~~~

Now, I can totally see Chelseafan-scum wanting to go along with the Gimbo wagon, and actually being suprised that there were enough other players willing to lynch Gimbo that he didn't have to vote for him.

[Adel]

I don't agree that a massclaim is powerful or necessary day 1. It is totally necessary day 2.

Having more than one strong wagon day 1 it totally necessary. Giving scum (who are not able to communicate at all after the game starts) a chance to become uncordinated and foul up their claims is necessary to get a clear game-winning break.

~~~

The only strong tell I have seen all game is when Skruffs stated that he and Armix were lovers shortly after Armix replaced in. That is exactly the kind of tell that would become much easier to come by if there wasn't a massclaim allready on the books.

[Adel]

I wish I had a stronger read on Nameless/Firestarter.

The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town.mb/scummy/stretching, esp. since I know Chelseafan had issues and had to

I am getting more comfortable with the idea that armix is scum after re-reading page 13

[Adel]

they were not added to the quote, here is your full post:

The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town.mb/scummy/stretching, esp. since I know Chelseafan had issues and had to

chen's response to being wagoned was dumb, but I can't say I didn't expect it from him regardless of alignment.

I like how Zeek says he suspects Knight/fl then just attacks on his other scum pairing.

Adel's list thing is odd, but expected from her.

I'm going to have to read page 21 at least once more. I think its pretty important to alignments/connections.

570 sounds like a lot of stretching from Shy Guy.

599: Distancing factor... orly? Adel's 600 sums up my feelings on this well.

658: Trying to apply reasoning to replacements is dube replaced in one of my games as well which makes it completely null.

So, my scum listing stands (fl/shy guy/Zeek/Harvey). Most confident ShyGuy/fl is scum, small chance of FS/nameless beign scum IMO, but not large enough I wouldn't be comfortable voting Zeek/Harvey over Fl/ShyGuy to ensure a lynch on one of the 2 "groups".

As for most town, I would have to say Adel/SpyreX by far.

I don't know about the rest, but "The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town." seems pretty clear, and I take exception to it.

[Adel]

whatever, the part I take exception to is "The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town" which is both clear and bullshit.

Why would you build an idiot case like that which is so easy to defeat? I think it was a softball lobbed to your scum partners so that you could net some distance and evidecne of mutual distrust.

[Adel]

So let me get this straight
Adel has put Two partners at the range of being quick lynched and is now trying to say they are the most likely scum pair because they haven't been quick lynched?

I have never said that.

And Shy Guy is still railing on me and ignoring Adel?

For your third point, point C, I Would say that CF was very much more likely to be frustrated with her partner. However, I think that makes it very much less likely that they are scum. Please remember that CF was the first person to claim their partner other than Gimbo; as scum, if CCF did not like Chentsi, or did not like the way they posted, they would have picked a 'better' scum partner. Especially considering that both CF and chentsi are new, it doesn't make sense for the two newbies to grouped together, especially if the other two players were *not* new.

Did you notice that all of the players at the beginning of the game were new? I noticed that Forbiddenlight seemed rather more experienced than the others, but all of the rest were pretty raw.

Scum would want each nebwbie to have an experienced player to help defend them, especially since the experienced players would be killed along with the newbs if any of them got lynched.

so who were the experienced players? Gimbo, me and ???

You're rather intentionally trying to distract attention away from Adel's antics.

congrats, you managed to lose one game where I play horribly as scum. Now you think I made the same mistakes here as I did there. genius. My wiki has a complete list of my games. Feel free to get a fuller meta on me.

Look at this:
Adel says that CF and CHentsi are cleared.
Shy guy says that it's awfully suspicious that Adel would clear them, therefroe they are more likely scum.

Adel then agrees with Shy Guy and votes one of the players. Does not strike ANYONE as a blatant scum gambit, the exact kind of thing that Adel does on a regular basis?? I just came from a "MetaMafia" game where I analyzed ADel's posts very closely (She was scum) and found a bussing tie between her and the last real mafia player. I got lynched anyways, because I am apparently not a very good salesman, but I totally got into ADel's head and I know how she works.

Adel is scum.


I would vote her right now but I want to let the rest of you process the connection between Shy GUy and Adel.

I don't think I am patient enough to pull that off. For a better example of Shy Guy and I working together as scum look at SMMII (link is on my wiki page) and there is a link at the ends that points at our quicktopic scum thread. Even when we were allowed to daytalk, Shy Guy and I were not able to coordinate very well.

I would hate for facts to get in the way of you pet theory, but on the off-chance that you are town, you should consider that I have ~40 games completed, and a rather wide variety of playstyles are exhibited in those games.

[Adel]

None of this has made me feel Zeek isn't scum at all, though.

I can agree here.

this is my major problem with this game right now. I am pretty sure that Zeek/HP and Skruffs/armix are scummy, but the partnership doen't really work for me. I don't see all 4 of them being scum together.... help?

[Adel]

Adel, what are your over all thoughts on each other pair?

nameless/firestarter could easily be lurking scum coasting to a win.

skruffs and armix are the only couple I have a solid tell against.

I dug into FL, and got a net town tell. Shy Guy keeps on posting in a scummy way, but when I've taken a hard look at him I haven't walked away convinced that he is scum, even though his attack on me upon replacing in should've triggered my tunnel-vision.

Zeek is scummy as hell, and HP is lurking.

so Shy Guy and FL are my most town-like at this point, which leaves me in a bit of a mess since Shy Guy seems convinced that I am scum, and I'm not able to clear them enough in my mind to really take a crack at the remaining relationship using thier alignment as a "certain town".

Basically, I'm waiting for Zeek to get replaced, get the full set of interactions, and crank hard on the system I built that I think could solve this, but I'm not even optimistic about that since I don't seem to have much townie credibility at this point, and the outcome of my system won't be utterly conclusive.

[Adel]

@SpyreX: I've reached a conclusion: Shy Guy and FL are town.

Why?

1. I have a basic town read on both of them. Shy Guy has a comprehensive meta on me, and if he wanted a mis-lynch I think he would've gotten one on me by now.
2. If Shy Guy is scum, we're fucked.
3. By partnering up with them (if possible) and working together we should figure out who is scum with 2 out of 3 odds in our favor.

~~~

@Shy Guy: your basic set of objection against me seem pretty logical to me. I admit that my actions, from one perspective, do seem scummy. I consider that an unfortunate consequence of what appeared to be the best course for me to take.

regarding the mass tell until day 2 thing: keep in mind that the games was filled with newbies, and I've played this set up before. I wrote this set up. I've been scum in a Deep South game with daytalking. I've been in a 100% day-talking game. I've played in games with really unorganized scum. I really expected that in a game full of inexperienced players, the scum stood a good chance of not communicating well, or getting replaced by a player who didn't pay attention, and getting confused and making the wrong move, only to be exposed by a day 2 massclaim. The information would all be there, but it would become hard for the scum to keep their relationships straight, especially under systematic questioning and being prompted to make lists, and being responsible for their own vote. I believed that the scum should be given every chance to make a mistake. Simplifying the setup early does help the town understand more immediately who has a claimed relationship with whom, but it also keeps things safer for the scum. The information will eventually be there for the town either way, and the relationships between players is impossible to really begin to evaluate until you have a lynch on the books anyways. The day 1 lynch would (and should) always come down to who the single scummiest player is. In short, I think there is no negative trade-off from claiming day 2 rather than day 1. The accuracy of the day 1 lynch will not be effected, and the chances of the scum making a critical mistake are slightly increased.

Gimbo had a disruptive playstyle that pretty impossible to deal with in a game. He wrecks the signal:noise ratio, like Korlash. Fuck him, he deserved to die.

Two days is a short period of time, but it felt much much longer than that to me at the time. I don't know why that is.

Another reason why I listed CH:CF as "cleared": I thought they would be too easy to mislynch if they were innocent, and they could use some defending.

[Adel]

Shy Guy has a comprehensive meta on me, and if he wanted a mis-lynch I think he would've gotten one on me by now.

Explain more please?

I know of at least 7 of my games that Shy Guy has read. Shy Guy and I know each other from before this game. He probably should've been in an invitational this year.

2. If Shy Guy is scum, we're fucked.

Why?

Shy Guy is good, and I don't have anything against him that could hang him, and I doubt that if he is scum I'll ever be able to build a case against him in this game that will stick.

[Adel]

That's kind of a really bad conclusion.

unvote, vote:Nameless

[Adel]

@Shy Guy: your basic set of objection against me seem pretty logical to me. I admit that my actions, from one perspective, do seem scummy. I consider that an unfortunate consequence of what appeared to be the best course for me to take.

This is fair enough as far as it goes. Best course for you to take could be best course for town Adel or best course for scum Adel.

resolved.

regarding the mass tell until day 2 thing: keep in mind that the games was filled with newbies, and I've played this set up before. I wrote this set up. I've been scum in a Deep South game with daytalking. I've been in a 100% day-talking game. I've played in games with really unorganized scum. I really expected that in a game full of inexperienced players, the scum stood a good chance of not communicating well, or getting replaced by a player who didn't pay attention, and getting confused and making the wrong move, only to be exposed by a day 2 massclaim.

I think that even with all new players the scum are somewhat unlikely to make such a mistake. Town, on the other hand,

I think would very likely lynch wrong day 1 if they only got a claim near hammer.

Informed townies are townies that lynch scum.

I disagree.

The information would all be there, but it would become hard for the scum to keep their relationships straight, especially under systematic questioning and being prompted to make lists, and being responsible for their own vote. I believed that the scum should be given every chance to make a mistake.

By doing so, you tried to give town every chance to make a mistake as well; townies might lynch a REALLY scummy player with an OK partner instead of two VERY but not quite REALLY scummy players, because they didn't know they were on the same team until day 2. Maybe they are scum maybe they aren't but it is best to make the best lynch possible day 1, and that involves mass claiming.

with claims only comming late in each wagon day 1 we would be more likely to have a number of strong wagon to look back on day 1. By massclaiming the rest of day one was far less dynamic, leaving us with far less to look at and get information from.

Simplifying the setup early does help the town understand more immediately who has a claimed relationship with whom, but it also keeps things safer for the scum. The information will eventually be there for the town either way, and the relationships between players is impossible to really begin to evaluate until you have a lynch on the books anyways.

I disagree here.

resolved.

The day 1 lynch would (and should) always come down to who the single scummiest player is.

Um why? Why not scummiest aggregate pair??

that approach could also work, once we had two or three strong wagons. Late in a day 1 with no massclaim we could look back at the day and have a conversation about which pair to lynch and why.

In short, I think there is no negative trade-off from claiming day 2 rather than day 1. The accuracy of the day 1 lynch will not be effected, and the chances of the scum making a critical mistake are slightly increased.

I strongly disagree that the accuracy is not effected, and agree that chances of scum making the type of mistake you are suggesting are increased only very slightly. In addition, before mass claim,

lovers might act suspicious of each other to hide that they are lovers.

Then when they claim, there is this apparent contradiction, and we are all bollocksed up.

If everyone has claimed, however, and the scum forget who they have claimed with and act suspicious of them, we have them for sure.

Making the scum commit to one parnter early on, then ceasing mentioning the partners thing might be the best idea possible.

Why would lovers pretend that they were not lovers?

I really don't buy that scum could accidently distance themselves from a partner after a claim.

Gimbo had a disruptive playstyle that pretty impossible to deal with in a game.

Any player can be dealt with. Tell them to do what you want, and if they don't ignore them. Especially in 6 player nightless, which is almost this setup, it is better to deal with a foolish townie than lynch them.

There are players with disruptive playstyles that make it very very hard to keep a productive conversation moving. dcorbe was that way in the first polygamist game, and gimbo was that way in this game.

When it was all said and done, I didn't like or chances of having a productive day 2 if Gimbo was still alive and spamming up the thread. had I known he was going to get banned, I would had more patience for him, or if I thought he was likely to be replaced.

He wrecks the signal:noise ratio, like Korlash. Fuck him, he deserved to die.

Townies deserve to live. You saw that you could clear him.

No really. I convinced myself that by not lynching Gimbo, if Chlseafan was revealed to be town, then Gimbo or I would be the day 2 mislynch leads to a scum win.

Two days is a short period of time, but it felt much much longer than that to me at the time. I don't know why that is.

You've said.

???

Another reason why I listed CH:CF as "cleared": I thought they would be too easy to mislynch if they were innocent, and they could use some defending.

Interesting... scummiest player, ergo defend them?

[/quote]
not scummiest, "least able to defend themselves".

[Adel]

this is bringing to light how much of a back seat nameless and firestarter have taken during this day.

[Adel]

limited on time, 3 mins, but try to respond to this post at least.

@SpyreX: I've reached a conclusion: Shy Guy and FL are town.

Interesting. Correct, but... unexpected.

Why?

1. I have a basic town read on both of them.

Why? Don't you later say in this or your next post you found me scummy?

I think it was an earlier post. Some of the thinks you've done, especially the review where you only focused on my lover and I, and didn't spend any time on CH/CF really don't sit well with me. You and FL are the lesser of three evils, and therefore the best of what I have to go with.

Shy Guy has a comprehensive meta on me, and if he wanted a mis-lynch I think he would've gotten one on me by now.

Well first off, I don't meta, so I don't see how that is relevant. However, you made me think: if I was scum and wanted to randomly lynch someone in this game, I'd have tried to lynch you, I'd have not brought up chenhsi at all. I'd have simply beat you over and over and over the head with your actions near the end of day 1. I think I'd have been fairly successful, especially if in this hypothetical Zeel was not my scum buddy, since he bought in really easily..

does this part require a response?

2. If Shy Guy is scum, we're fucked.

Why? Skruffs/armlx and Nameless/Fire seem like they easily could be convinced to lynch me.

I don't like the odds of both of them being town, and lynching you isn't my goal. Both of them seem more scummy to me than you do.

3. By partnering up with them (if possible) and working together we should figure out who is scum with 2 out of 3 odds in our favor.

Hm. I need to think on if I think you are town. I am leaning yes, if for no other reason taht, I think you are wrong, and that if you wanted to mislynch

me

you could have easily done so with Nameless and armlx circling.

I wasn't looking at the problem from the perspective of who I

can

lynch, I was trying to figure out who I

should

lynch. By eliminating one couple I think I am making progress.

{snip}

must say unsurprising that armlx (in a reasonable sounding way) and nameless (in a pretty disappointed sounding scummy ish way) both immediately question your conclusion.

I imagine they are the scum (likive been saying) and that they will try and make you

choose between me/z and them

. If thathappens dont give up like you gave up on chelseafan. assuming I am confident enough you are town to give you that decision . need to think this over.

later.

the part in bold is a little disturbing to me.
Zeek/HP still strike me as hella scummy. Are you thinking that they are more townish than the others?

[Adel]

Adel, I'd like to hear your thoughts about the first half of my post 783

I think that even with all new players the scum are somewhat unlikely to make such a mistake. Town, on the other hand,

I think would very likely lynch wrong day 1 if they only got a claim near hammer.

Informed townies are townies that lynch scum.

I disagree.

Why?

I don't think the odds of a day 1 lynch being accurate are decreased by if a claim only comes at the end of the wagon. If the scummy person who was about to be lynched is partnered with a very townish looking person then the wagon will stop, and a new wagon will start, resulting in more wagons day 1. More wagons ='s more to analyse. If you want a better informed town, then you want more wagons. That is why longer days are generally better than shorter days... and yes, I knew that when I hammered Gimbo. I know I should've tried harder to derail his wagon, but the fucker claimed scum, and I was sick of dealing with him, and I was confident enough that he was scum and Chlseafan was his partner that I took that chance.

The information would all be there, but it would become hard for the scum to keep their relationships straight, especially under systematic questioning and being prompted to make lists, and being responsible for their own vote. I believed that the scum should be given every chance to make a mistake.

By doing so, you tried to give town every chance to make a mistake as well; townies might lynch a REALLY scummy player with an OK partner instead of two VERY but not quite REALLY scummy players, because they didn't know they were on the same team until day 2. Maybe they are scum maybe they aren't but it is best to make the best lynch possible day 1, and that involves mass claiming.

with claims only comming late in each wagon day 1 we would be more likely to have a number of strong wagon to look back on day 1. By massclaiming the rest of day one was far less dynamic, leaving us with far less to look at and get information from.

I think there is a point of highly diminishing returns for more information. It is easier to think about 6 pairs of players than 12 individuals. Maybe I am thinking about this all wrong.

It is easier to think about six sets of relationships than 12, but that simplifying information can come later, on day 2, when it will actually make a difference. Day 1 you can just pursue the scummiest players, and as a byproduct you will generate a lot of information that you can decode later, after the massclaim. With a hectic enough day 1, with multipule wagons, scum will have a chance to get their wires crossed.

The day 1 lynch would (and should) always come down to who the single scummiest player is.

Um why? Why not scummiest aggregate pair??

that approach could also work, once we had two or three strong wagons. Late in a day 1 with no massclaim we could look back at the day and have a conversation about which pair to lynch and why.

This could work just as well if not better with mass claim as well.

when it comes down to choosing between a very late day 1 massclaim and a very early day 2 massclaim, it seems like splitting hairs to me. Chances are that without a massclaim early day 1, a product of multipule wagons would be the outing of all of the pairs anyways. That the exposure of who is a claimed lover with whom comes

after

multipule wagons is the important part. That is where scum can make a mistake.

In short, I think there is no negative trade-off from claiming day 2 rather than day 1. The accuracy of the day 1 lynch will not be effected, and the chances of the scum making a critical mistake are slightly increased.

I strongly disagree that the accuracy is not effected, and agree that chances of scum making the type of mistake you are suggesting are increased only very slightly. In addition, before mass claim,

lovers might act suspicious of each other to hide that they are lovers.

Then when they claim, there is this apparent contradiction, and we are all bollocksed up.

If everyone has claimed, however, and the scum forget who they have claimed with and act suspicious of them, we have them for sure.

Making the scum commit to one parnter early on, then ceasing mentioning the partners thing might be the best idea possible.

Why would lovers pretend that they were not lovers?

A player might think "so the scum don't realize who the lover pairs are!"

I wouldn't pretend not to be a lover, but I imagine some might. Inexperience and mistake-making works both ways, Adel.

actually, I see now that each player should be forced to breadcrumb who they are a lover with an early post, and then all of the breadcrumbs should be exposed either very late on day 1, or immediately on day 2.

I really don't buy that scum could accidently distance themselves from a partner after a claim.

Why do you not buy this but do buy that scum could accidentally distance before a claim when they've already planned the claim out?

because they won't be reminded of who they are partnered with in every post they are mentioned in every time they do a reread. That kind of repetition is how stuff gets very well memorized.

Gimbo had a disruptive playstyle that pretty impossible to deal with in a game.

Any player can be dealt with. Tell them to do what you want, and if they don't ignore them. Especially in 6 player nightless, which is almost this setup, it is better to deal with a foolish townie than lynch them.

There are players with disruptive playstyles that make it very very hard to keep a productive conversation moving. dcorbe was that way in the first polygamist game, and gimbo was that way in this game.

That's fair. Really though, just tell everyone to ignore the player. It can be surprisingly effective.

do you think that would've worked with Gimbo? or the self-voting dcorbe in polygamist 1?

When it was all said and done, I didn't like or chances of having a productive day 2 if Gimbo was still alive and spamming up the thread. had I known he was going to get banned, I would had more patience for him, or if I thought he was likely to be replaced.

Fair.

He wrecks the signal:noise ratio, like Korlash. Fuck him, he deserved to die.

Townies deserve to live. You saw that you could clear him.

No really. I convinced myself that by not lynching Gimbo, if Chlseafan was revealed to be town, then Gimbo or I would be the day 2 mislynch leads to a scum win.

Hm. Thinking that no one else would buy in even day 2 actually does make some sense... but they'd have had to buy in to lynch Chelseafan in the first place. Adel, why not bring this up before?

I have! The way I saw it, all of the work that ti would take to save Gimbo (of all undeserving people) would probably either not save him anyway, or only get him or me lynched day 2, or (more likely) he was scum with Chelseafan anyways and it wouldn't matter which of the two we lynched.

Two days is a short period of time, but it felt much much longer than that to me at the time. I don't know why that is.

You've said.

???

I was just stating how you have said earlier in the thread that time passed more slowly for you.

well I don't know why that is.

Another reason why I listed CH:CF as "cleared": I thought they would be too easy to mislynch if they were innocent, and they could use some defending.

Interesting... scummiest player, ergo defend them?

not scummiest, "least able to defend themselves".

Why would they be so easy to mislynch?

seriously? chenshi has "lynch me" written on his forehead in big red letters. Have you looked though his posts in other games? He gets lynched a lot. Chelseafan didn't strike me as a mafia player with an especially good defensive game.

this is bringing to light how much of a back seat nameless and firestarter have taken during this day.

They have, and this echoes a point I've had in the back of my mind.

I tried to suggest this earlier but didn't push it because it would have looked like OMGUS, and to an extent was OMGUS: one or both of them attacked my case about day one while (as far as I can remember) not doing nearly as much to analyze day one themselves. They do seem like they might be intentionally sitting back.

I can't remember why or when right now, but it occured to me earlier in the game that firestarter was buddying up to me. I didn't want to have to reread this game, damnit.

[Adel]

I think it was an earlier post. Some of the thinks you've done, especially the review where you only focused on my lover and I, and didn't spend any time on CH/CF really don't sit well with me. You and FL are the lesser of three evils, and therefore the best of what I have to go with.

Are you clearing us because you think we are town, or because you think we aren't the most scummy? Why do you say we are the lesser of

three

evils?

because Zeek was off the table.

Shy Guy has a comprehensive meta on me, and if he wanted a mis-lynch I think he would've gotten one on me by now.

Well first off, I don't meta, so I don't see how that is relevant. However, you made me think: if I was scum and wanted to randomly lynch someone in this game, I'd have tried to lynch you, I'd have not brought up chenhsi at all. I'd have simply beat you over and over and over the head with your actions near the end of day 1. I think I'd have been fairly successful, especially if in this hypothetical Zeel was not my scum buddy, since he bought in really easily..

does this part require a response?

I'm interested in what you think of my analysis of what I could have done were I scum, sure. Also of what you could do if you were scum (e.g. lynch me right now).

It would depend on who I was scum with. I know I wouldn't have made any protest against the Gimbo lynch day 1, that would've been a perfect wagon to just camp out on. I probably would've picked one of the more inexperienced players and convinced the other players to choose between him and me for the day 2 lynch.

2. If Shy Guy is scum, we're fucked.

Why? Skruffs/armlx and Nameless/Fire seem like they easily could be convinced to lynch me.

I don't like the odds of both of them being town, and lynching you isn't my goal. Both of them seem more scummy to me than you do.

Well, I am having (which game first) chicken or egg problems here... You say you clear me because we are fucked if I am scum, I say that you wouldn't be fucked, and your response is "yeah but I don't want to lynch you".

Why don't you want to lynch me again?

I don't want to partner with both armix and nameless. I also think you would out-type me if I did try to get you lynched. You have far less day 1 baggage, and I know you rock as scum.

3. By partnering up with them (if possible) and working together we should figure out who is scum with 2 out of 3 odds in our favor.

Hm. I need to think on if I think you are town. I am leaning yes, if for no other reason taht, I think you are wrong, and that if you wanted to mislynch

me

you could have easily done so with Nameless and armlx circling.

I wasn't looking at the problem from the perspective of who I

can

lynch, I was trying to figure out who I

should

lynch. By eliminating one couple I think I am making progress.

Then how does point 2, that you clarified to armlx as meaning you couldn't make a case stick to me, matter? Why is it a reason for clearing me and FL if you are just looking at who we

should

lynch?

There isn't a case against you that I really believe in. I don't see a case against you that others should believe in. Now if you had hammered Gimbo on day 1 or if FL had told you that you were her lover immediately upon replacing in, things would be different.

{snip}

must say unsurprising that armlx (in a reasonable sounding way) and nameless (in a pretty disappointed sounding scummy ish way) both immediately question your conclusion.

I imagine they are the scum (likive been saying) and that they will try and make you

choose between me/z and them

. If thathappens dont give up like you gave up on chelseafan. assuming I am confident enough you are town to give you that decision . need to think this over.

later.

the part in bold is a little disturbing to me.
Zeek/HP still strike me as hella scummy. Are you thinking that they are more townish than the others?

I've consistently said this since replacing in.

I could've sworn that I typed out "are you

still

thinking that..."

You asking this question gives me a "where the heck have you been?" moment. Your own partner is highly suspicious of a Z+me pairing because of my thoughts about Z.

I am not rigid on him, and admittedly I need to re-examine Z, but right now I feel they are pretty townie.

I want to say right now, if the scum are Nameless+Z and we win, amazing job to all the town at reasoning stuff out and being willing to consider things that weren't what we initially thought.

I don't know if I prefer N+Z or Z+A or N+A. I think we are making good progress though. Like the leap it took me to trust biochipchomp in polygamist 1, this is why I like this setup -- it kinda turns mafia on its head.

[Adel]

But there has been posts made, and apart from being extremely busy in the RL, Im waiting for your results Adel...

you there ins't anything from the last several pages you think is worth commenting upon?

did you notice that the game is not stalled out right now? The game is active again, and I don't think "waiting on Adel's analysis" really counts as a valid excuse anymore for not contributing content.

[Adel]

EBWOP: so there isn't anything from the last several pages you think is worth commenting upon?

[Adel]

on your "find all posts by" page I see that out of your last 25 posts you have posted in 4 games including this one. 5 out of those 25 posts were in this game. Three of those five posts are on this page, and are basically content free.

It doesn't look like any of your other games are in lynch-or-lose. The titles say that they are inl day 1, day 3, or day 1.5. The first post of the mini you are in that is in day 3 say (according to the mod) that two mafia members have been lynched, so that game isn't in lynch-or-lose.

Why have you been avoiding posting in this game?

[Adel]

I think you'll find that 16 of those posts were in the last 3 days, the vast majority of them in the last 2, when I apologised to players in all the games I was in of my inability to post anything worthwhile.

When I can get on, I will post, but this game, as Ive clearly stated above.... is needing of more than just a one liner, here & there.

"EBWOP.. yes, there are things Ill comment on Adel, but at this time, I simply dont have the time for long analysis posts in all of the games Im in."

Take off your paranoid hat.... and open your eyes please.

so why is it that when I look at your last 50 posts or last 75 posts, the trend becomes much more pronounced? You have been a very active poster on this site, just not in this game during this day.

[Adel]

In those last 25 posts, I dont think Ive contributed more than 4 lines in them...
I could be wrong however.
Feel free to correct me.

BTW, what point, if any, are you trying to assertain here?
This is the same in every game Im in.

I can recall two posts out of your last 25 that had more than four lines in them. You seem to have the time to respond to attacks? Has your life calmed down enough for you to post in this game now?

[Adel]

In those last 25 posts, I dont think Ive contributed more than 4 lines in them...
I could be wrong however.
Feel free to correct me.

BTW, what point, if any, are you trying to assertain here?
This is the same in every game Im in.

bullshit. you are neglecting this game while remaining active in others.

[Adel]

In those last 25 posts, I dont think Ive contributed more than 4 lines in them...
I could be wrong however.
Feel free to correct me.

are you used to playing against people who don't bother to research thier opponents even to do basic fact checking?

You can't have it both ways
"In those last 25 posts, I dont think Ive contributed more than 4 lines in them" is false, and "I could be wrong however" does not excuse your error. You keep on trying to defend yourself aginst my case with "facts" that are not true.

[Adel]

Soooo... your building a case on me here because of what, exactly?

was answered by:

In those last 25 posts, I dont think Ive contributed more than 4 lines in them...
I could be wrong however.
Feel free to correct me.

BTW, what point, if any, are you trying to assertain here?
This is the same in every game Im in.

bullshit. you are neglecting this game while remaining active in others.

you are coasting in this game while being active in other games, and you are trying to claim that isn't the case.

[Adel]

So let me get this straight
Adel has put Two partners at the range of being quick lynched and is now trying to say they are the most likely scum pair because they haven't been quick lynched?

And Shy Guy is still railing on me and ignoring Adel?

For your third point, point C, I Would say that CF was very much more likely to be frustrated with her partner. However, I think that makes it very much less likely that they are scum. Please remember that CF was the first person to claim their partner other than Gimbo; as scum, if CCF did not like Chentsi, or did not like the way they posted, they would have picked a 'better' scum partner. Especially considering that both CF and chentsi are new, it doesn't make sense for the two newbies to grouped together, especially if the other two players were *not* new.
Scum would want each nebwbie to have an experienced player to help defend them, especially since the experienced players would be killed along with the newbs if any of them got lynched.

You're rather intentionally trying to distract attention away from Adel's antics.


Look at this:
Adel says that CF and CHentsi are cleared.
Shy guy says that it's awfully suspicious that Adel would clear them, therefroe they are more likely scum.

Adel then agrees with Shy Guy and votes one of the players. Does not strike ANYONE as a blatant scum gambit, the exact kind of thing that Adel does on a regular basis?? I just came from a "MetaMafia" game where I analyzed ADel's posts very closely (She was scum) and found a bussing tie between her and the last real mafia player. I got lynched anyways, because I am apparently not a very good salesman, but I totally got into ADel's head and I know how she works.

Adel is scum.


I would vote her right now but I want to let the rest of you process the connection between Shy GUy and Adel.

between this post, and when we started this exchange (806), you made 9 posts. Only 1 of those 9 was in this game, and was your apology for being inactive. Of the remaining 8, they all occured in your three other games.
Not including quote blocks, one post was 11 lines, one was 17, and one was 36 lines. Your longs posts did not all occur in the same game. Your other games are not in lynch or lose like this one is. This game was obviously not stalled by the time Skruffs made his post at 718.

You had time to get into this exchange with me over the course of three hours.

You have the time to post in other games. You had the time to make long posts with 30% of your posts during that time. If you were town, this game would be at a critical juncture for you, and you would make it a priority. Once you were attacked you were able to make it a priority.

Why were you lurking in this game?
Why wasn't this game important enough for you to make one of your longer posts in it?
Why do you have the time to make an effort defending yourself here, but not enough time to make a content-full post that may help the town?

[Adel]

BIg post tomorrow.

???

~~~~

Why wouldn't you have argued agains the Gimbo wagon as to gain pro-town cred once he was lynched?

If I was trying to collect pro-town cred, I think it is probable that I would say something critical about the wagon and make sure my vote was on someone else.

Why do you wish I'd replaced in day 1? Be as in depth as possible.

1. because I would have a better idea of what you alignment is.
2. the person you replaced didn't add much at all to the game
3. if you are town, then I think day 1 would've gone down differently. We should have had several strong wagons on day one instead of just one.

[Adel]

I'm waiting on the big promised post by Skruffs, and for Erg0 to read the game and give us the answer Zeek never did?

[Adel]

I'm waiting on the big promised post by Skruffs, and for Erg0 to read the game and give us the answer Zeek never did?

Is this the question on the two most likely scum?

yes.

[Adel]

I'm leaning towards Scruffs and Anix being town.

[Adel]

yes.

[Adel]

here is a nice global question: who has been holding thier cards close to their chest?

[Adel]

eh, I was glancing through nameless's recent posts, and noted that he hasn't been saying much. Who else isn't scumhunting?

[Adel]

do you want to test if I will blink?

unvote, vote:Skruffs

I'm tired of waiting for that big post.

[Adel]

it does directly contradict my last post about them, but fuck it, if they are town their lack of participation is killing us, and if me refusing to lynch them prevents you and FL from colaberating with SpreX and I, then we aren't going to get the lynch I would prefer.

[Adel]

Is it two players from different couples?

yes.

[Adel]

What about the second question?

individual scummyness I suppose, but you could give the award for "best group effort to appear scum" if you like,

[Adel]

also waiting on ergo

[Adel]

what is this, the battle of the unhelpful townies? skruffs, cyberbob and Erg0 can't all be scum together.

unvote, vote:Cyberbob

(shy guy: I will return my vote on Skruffs if you don't get aboard the Cyberbob/Nameless wagon, but I feel pretty confident that this is the one that will lynch scum)

[Adel]

chances are the two of you are both town.

Where in the hell is skruffs, HP, and Erg0?

[Adel]

why hasn't harvey pew and ergo's activity level thrown up flags for you?

[Adel]

why hasn't harvey pew and ergo's activity level thrown up flags for you?

huh? why should it have?

erg0 has made

78

posts elsewhere on this site since his last post in this game.

[Adel]

but he never was engaged.

[Adel]

I'm waiting on the big promised post by Skruffs, and for Erg0 to read the game and give us the answer Zeek never did

[Adel]

unvote, Vote:Erg0

so that he is the first to 3 votes, in case that matters when deadline comes.

[Adel]

Well, to hopefully shield my lover a little from deadline, Vote:Erg0

This concerns me.

why?

[Adel]

I think both Adel & Firestarter overreacted about Firestarter.

This is true.

I'm interested in FS. His posting pattern says he is scummy (don't try to pass it off as not lurking, I know the relative # of posts even going back further then your reduced posting time is low), but his actual posts I think indicate he is town to some extent.

Still rather lynch Zeek/Harvey/ShyGuy/FL

I'm confused. Why do you have a problem with FL voting for Erg0?

[Adel]

I'm confused. Why do you have a problem with FL voting for Erg0?

Because if Erg0 = scum, and FL isn't, the Erg0/Nameless pair would be the one I'm looking and, and that seems odd to me.

what seems odd or unlikely about a Erg0/Nameles pair?

[Adel]

since you are basically dodging that question, why are you comfortable with Nameless voting with you? That implies that you feel that Nameless is town. Why do you think Nameless is town?

[Adel]

actually, I say we take out spyrex. i personally think there's a good chance he's mafia, and even if he isn't, gimbo surely will be.

Lynch set up from Knight.

FS seems town in this game based on comparison with his completed game as town and ongoing stuffs.

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but pairs are:

Me/Skruffs
adel/Spyre
fl/ShyGuy
Harvey/Zeek
FS/Namless?

Money atm is on Fl/Shyguy/Harvey/Zeek scum, only 11 pages in tho.

The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town.mb/scummy/stretching, esp. since I know Chelseafan had issues and had to

chen's response to being wagoned was dumb, but I can't say I didn't expect it from him regardless of alignment.

I like how Zeek says he suspects Knight/fl then just attacks on his other scum pairing.

Adel's list thing is odd, but expected from her.

I'm going to have to read page 21 at least once more. I think its pretty important to alignments/connections.

570 sounds like a lot of stretching from Shy Guy.

599: Distancing factor... orly? Adel's 600 sums up my feelings on this well.

658: Trying to apply reasoning to replacements is dube replaced in one of my games as well which makes it completely null.

So, my scum listing stands (fl/shy guy/Zeek/Harvey). Most confident ShyGuy/fl is scum, small chance of FS/nameless beign scum IMO, but not large enough I wouldn't be comfortable voting Zeek/Harvey over Fl/ShyGuy to ensure a lynch on one of the 2 "groups".

As for most town, I would have to say Adel/SpyreX by far.

You have never presented any evidence for why you think that Shy Guy and erg0 would be scum together.

You settled upon Shy Guy and Erg0 being scum from when you first replaced in, and you have not shifted since then.

You have no evidence for why you think that Nameless and Erg0 would not be scum together. You have no evidence for why Namless would be town.

Something about your play is starting to set of serious alarms for me. I do not understand what would logically lead you to conclude the things you are now treating as assumptions.

Your partner have broken multipule promises to catch up and post.

Why should I think you are town?

[Adel]

so you are blaming your failure to seriously examine the alignments of other players on Shy Guy's scumminess?

Now that forbiddanlight chose Erg0 over Skruffs and Cyberbob to place a second vote upon, I really hope to take some time to think about why you are voting with Nameless, and if tunnel-vision is negatively impacting your ability to identify scum.

[Adel]

spryex's analysis of zeek seems to me like OMGUS.

I didn't think it was OMGUS. You were attacking us at abut the same time, and your attack seemed honest and somewhat fair, his totally did not.

[Adel]

More to come.

would you mind including who you this is the least likey to be scum, and which two non-lovers you think are the most likely to be scum (based off of individual scuminess, and not group-tells)

[Adel]

2 groups on the Erg0/Harvey train (Me/Adel + Forbid/ShyGuy)
2 groups on the Shy Guy train (Nameless/Cyber + Arm/Skruffs)
2 confused groups on the Skruffs/Arm train (Harvey/Erg0 + ShyGuy/Forbid)
1 group on the Adel/SpyreX train (Skruffs/Armlx).

I'm not sure what to make of that, but I put it up for analysis.

it basically outs Nameless/Cyber as scum.

unvote, vote:Nameless

[Adel]

it basically outs Nameless/Cyber as scum.

How does it do that? I'm willing to vote them if you can explain how.

it is an odds/math thing. Scum are less likely to vote for each other, and town's willingness to lynch each other since their ability to lynch scum is only a little better than random, combine to indicate that the pair who everyone one else says is rather scummy yet no one is out to lynch is more likely than average to be scum in this game.

They could easily take the wind out of the sails of this argument if only they would post more

[Adel]

I've spent most of my life playing with odds. I'm insane enough to go for an

Unvote, vote: Nameless

'k

Unvote, vote: Nameless

[Adel]

it basically outs Nameless/Cyber as scum.

unvote, vote:Nameless

sometimes I am amazed that I am ever functional with this level of retardation.

[Adel]

I'm going to have LA for the next week, but I'll toss in some notes:

I find it very interesting that Skruffs came out of the woodwork defending this more than Nameless has. Although, that would mean that Zeek / Harvey are town and I just dont know what I think about that.

The fact Nameless is sitting at 4 and isn't dead when everyone has chimed in but... Zeek and Harvey. If Nameless IS town, it's drumroll... Zeek/Harvey/FL/ShyGuy

I'll try to hop on and I am going to follow my partner around.

I also dont know what to make of this:

Quick answer: armlx/Skruffs and

Adel/SpyreX as scum

, Shy Guy/forbiddanlight as town.

Why do you think Adel is town?

We don't need to catch all four bad guys. Only one. Adel is so obviously the one to catch that her partners are making it even easier by trying to deflect, safetly, attention away from her. If she were town, scum would be bouncing up and down on her grave by now.

Seems like an odd place to misread 180 degrees.

So Adel, I leave the ball mostly in your court. Personally, I STILL think its gonna end up being SG/FL/Erg0/Harvey - but I couldn't seem to persuade anyone too that so.

I'm thinking hard about this. Please check the thread regularly from now until the deadline.

[Adel]

@armlx: Nameless and I are now tied at 4 votes.

Either you will cast the next vote, or Harvey Pew will.

Whoever casts it will decide who is the deadline lynch.

Please vote ASAP!

[Adel]

Well... that's not entirely true. 96 hours is 4 days - more than enough time for a few vote switches should something new come up.

is there one and only one lover pair you can see me being scum with, or is there more than one?

[Adel]

skruffs and armix need to seriously rethink this. Nameless is the correct lynch for the town to win.

[Adel]

going to express second thoughts on switching, but this just takes the cake.

Unvote, Vote: Shy Guy

this is such transparent b.s.

skruffs & armlx-- which players have been working in this game, paying attention, and trying to scumhunt?
Nameless and Cyberbob?

[Adel]

skruffs & armlx-- which players have been working in this game, paying attention, and trying to scumhunt?

Frequently voting without reasoning and fussing about plans that you never eventuated might have given you a high post count but that's hardly the same as successfully scumhunting.

What you, and most of the members of your scum team, have been doing is called

lurking

.

And no, I didn't get the information I needed from Ergo and Cyberbob in a timely manner, Cyberbob never even submitted his answers.

[Adel]

I think the post you linked to is a great place for townies to start rereading from. It, and the following few pages, show you being evasive and contributing just enough to not be easily precieved as lurking.

You never answered who you thought the person least likely to be scum was. You never directly named which you players you thought were the most likely to be scum.

I was obviously attempting to gather information in a systematic way, and you dug your heels in and refused to cooperate.

[Adel]

fuck -- firestarter answered them.

[Adel]

fuck -- firestarter answered them.

/facepalm

qft.

the desired result was achieved by other means, however. It is now clear how this game has broken down -- skruffs and armlx have to decide if Nameless is scum or if Shy Guy is.

[Adel]

Unvote, Vote Nameless

... you know what, screw it. I don't quite think I'm able to convince you otherwise in the next few hours or so, and even if Harvey Pew actually showed up on my side it wouldn't help now.

*Concedes defeat*

Good game all. (Particularly Adel, although you were actually wrong about one thing.)

I hate anticipation. What was I wrong about?

[Adel]

thanks for the error-free modding eldarad!

Good game scum.