Open 83 - Polygamist Mafia (Game over!) before 628

[Shy Guy]

Also, to avoid my not being happy with short responses again -- I'd very much appreciate if you went into at least a little bit of discussion of WHY you believe what you believe.

[Adel]

sorry, I'm suffering from a serious case of "Mafia is stupid and pointless" I can't concentrate in games right now.

My response to most of Shy Guy's questions is "shrug"

[Adel]

are these serious questions?

Thanks Adel, but could you please elaborate on both counts:

Some questions I have for Adel -- have you considered that Chelseafan just never thought about the implications of or even never realized that all other lover pairs were willing to lynch Gimbo?

I have considered that Chlseafan wasn't paying attention.

How likely do you think it was that he wasn't paying attention?

Why was scum bus-ing implausible at the stage you asked Chelseafan?

I thought it was very plausible that Chlseafan was lyning when he said that he was willing to lynch Gimbo.

What did you think about the other players who said they were willing to lynch Gimbo?

They all lynched Gimbo, right, except for Harvey Pew.

Do you think they were all telling the truth?

about lynching Gimbo? apparently, gimbo got lynched, right?

I'd like it very much if you discussed the likelihood of it in general, and if you care to, for each particular pair.

of people not wanting to lynch Gimbo? wtf are you talking about?

Also if you had/have any speculation about what Chelseafan might have thought about the legitimacy of the declared intent of each group to vote Gimbo, I would welcome that as well.

your writing + my reading comprehension = noise

what are you looking for here? I don't see why Chlseafan would think that anyone was not sincere about wanting to lynch Gimbo. There were more than enough players who wanted to lynch Gimbo.

~~~

Now, I can totally see Chelseafan-scum wanting to go along with the Gimbo wagon, and actually being suprised that there were enough other players willing to lynch Gimbo that he didn't have to vote for him.

[armlx]

And how do you draw the line between chenhsi's actions and Knight's other than that it is convient for you to clear chenhsi? Why, objectively, is chenhsi only foolish and not scummy, but Knight scummy (and not foolish??)?

Where did I say the actions Chenhsi did were not scummy in the abstract? I only said that in the case of Chenhsi, I could show that they were not.

What is the meta of chenhsi pray tell? That he is only concerned with his own survival and willing to divert attention to anyone else besides himself? That "meta" could be figured out from this game as well. Chenhsi's excuse is just as general and no more significant because it comes from meta, and in my opinion less significant.

Its more chenhsi responds in a manner when attacked that doesn't really interact with the attacker's questions. He has a tendency to scramble about saying nothing under pressure.

However, I went back and forth with Adel about both cases (the second is really a natural continuation of the first), and am still trying to engage in dialogue with her.

I do not feel your questions have to do with her reactions to your attack as you are stating now, and are instead a continuation of your logic that was "only to draw reactions".

If I thought it was a significant issue, even if it really was just a minor thing, it means I was acting with every intent of finding scum. If I truly believe it was an important issue, regardless of whether it is or isn't, my thinking that it was is of utmost importance.

Mafia is a game of determining motives. Of course determining my motive in bringing up the case would be important!

I don't agree. Mafia is a game of analyzing actions. If we are to talk about motives, there are infinite ways for any post to have a motive that goes either way, but examining how an action benefits one side or the other gives a clear answer that can then be combined with probability of being accidental to come to a conclusion. As I see it, your action was one that had large payoffs as scum (a case with no basis that looks genuine) and given the thought put into it is hard to be excusable.

Adel's actions near the end of day one are exactly why I find her suspicious. She came up with the very plausible idea that lynching Chelseafan would be good because if he was town it would clear Gimbo, and that Chelseafan was likely scum. She then, however, only spent all of two days pursuing this notion, and the largest opposition was from her partner. I believe that not even everyone had commented on the idea. She then "got frustrated" and hammered Gimbo even though she claims she thought the Chelseafan lynch would have been much better.

How does the "getting frustrated" not fit with arguing against her partner to no effective chage?

This to me reveals that either you: (1) are just trying to justify your statements and don't believe what you are saying, (2) don't understand how powerful and necessary mass claim day 1 is in this setup, (3) think that the mafia would be able to fool the entire town about how powerful and necessary mass claim day 1 is in this setup.

No, I believe that other people in this game were under the impression of number 2 and it was easy for the mafia to agree with them and cause a swing towards no claim.

That said, I am willing to go back and look at those who opposed mass claim D1.

[Adel]

I don't agree that a massclaim is powerful or necessary day 1. It is totally necessary day 2.

Having more than one strong wagon day 1 it totally necessary. Giving scum (who are not able to communicate at all after the game starts) a chance to become uncordinated and foul up their claims is necessary to get a clear game-winning break.

~~~

The only strong tell I have seen all game is when Skruffs stated that he and Armix were lovers shortly after Armix replaced in. That is exactly the kind of tell that would become much easier to come by if there wasn't a massclaim allready on the books.

[Adel]

I wish I had a stronger read on Nameless/Firestarter.

The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town.mb/scummy/stretching, esp. since I know Chelseafan had issues and had to

I am getting more comfortable with the idea that armix is scum after re-reading page 13

[armlx]

mb/scummy/stretching, esp. since I know Chelseafan had issues and had to

What does this mean? Why is it added to the quote.

[Adel]

they were not added to the quote, here is your full post:

The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town.mb/scummy/stretching, esp. since I know Chelseafan had issues and had to

chen's response to being wagoned was dumb, but I can't say I didn't expect it from him regardless of alignment.

I like how Zeek says he suspects Knight/fl then just attacks on his other scum pairing.

Adel's list thing is odd, but expected from her.

I'm going to have to read page 21 at least once more. I think its pretty important to alignments/connections.

570 sounds like a lot of stretching from Shy Guy.

599: Distancing factor... orly? Adel's 600 sums up my feelings on this well.

658: Trying to apply reasoning to replacements is dube replaced in one of my games as well which makes it completely null.

So, my scum listing stands (fl/shy guy/Zeek/Harvey). Most confident ShyGuy/fl is scum, small chance of FS/nameless beign scum IMO, but not large enough I wouldn't be comfortable voting Zeek/Harvey over Fl/ShyGuy to ensure a lynch on one of the 2 "groups".

As for most town, I would have to say Adel/SpyreX by far.

I don't know about the rest, but "The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town." seems pretty clear, and I take exception to it.

[armlx]

mb/scummy/stretching, esp. since I know Chelseafan had issues and had to

Hmm, thats odd. This was part of a completely separate point that somehow got half deleted. Someone (I can't remember who right now), started insinuating CF's replacement was due to being under pressure, and I was saying that is reaching to begin with, especially since I know CF has comp issues and had to replace out of the game I am modding.

[Adel]

whatever, the part I take exception to is "The Zeek/Harvey argument on 13 is very odd for two people who are supposed to know each other is town" which is both clear and bullshit.

Why would you build an idiot case like that which is so easy to defeat? I think it was a softball lobbed to your scum partners so that you could net some distance and evidecne of mutual distrust.

[armlx]

Also, with respect to the Zeek/Harvey issue, I reread it and it came across very different. When I was reading the first time I saw the WIFOM thing as almost an accusation and then the turnaround as odd.

[Skruffs]

BIg post tomorrow.

[armlx]

BIg post tomorrow.

This is needed.

And your new avatar is insanely good.

[Adel]

So let me get this straight
Adel has put Two partners at the range of being quick lynched and is now trying to say they are the most likely scum pair because they haven't been quick lynched?

I have never said that.

And Shy Guy is still railing on me and ignoring Adel?

For your third point, point C, I Would say that CF was very much more likely to be frustrated with her partner. However, I think that makes it very much less likely that they are scum. Please remember that CF was the first person to claim their partner other than Gimbo; as scum, if CCF did not like Chentsi, or did not like the way they posted, they would have picked a 'better' scum partner. Especially considering that both CF and chentsi are new, it doesn't make sense for the two newbies to grouped together, especially if the other two players were *not* new.

Did you notice that all of the players at the beginning of the game were new? I noticed that Forbiddenlight seemed rather more experienced than the others, but all of the rest were pretty raw.

Scum would want each nebwbie to have an experienced player to help defend them, especially since the experienced players would be killed along with the newbs if any of them got lynched.

so who were the experienced players? Gimbo, me and ???

You're rather intentionally trying to distract attention away from Adel's antics.

congrats, you managed to lose one game where I play horribly as scum. Now you think I made the same mistakes here as I did there. genius. My wiki has a complete list of my games. Feel free to get a fuller meta on me.

Look at this:
Adel says that CF and CHentsi are cleared.
Shy guy says that it's awfully suspicious that Adel would clear them, therefroe they are more likely scum.

Adel then agrees with Shy Guy and votes one of the players. Does not strike ANYONE as a blatant scum gambit, the exact kind of thing that Adel does on a regular basis?? I just came from a "MetaMafia" game where I analyzed ADel's posts very closely (She was scum) and found a bussing tie between her and the last real mafia player. I got lynched anyways, because I am apparently not a very good salesman, but I totally got into ADel's head and I know how she works.

Adel is scum.


I would vote her right now but I want to let the rest of you process the connection between Shy GUy and Adel.

I don't think I am patient enough to pull that off. For a better example of Shy Guy and I working together as scum look at SMMII (link is on my wiki page) and there is a link at the ends that points at our quicktopic scum thread. Even when we were allowed to daytalk, Shy Guy and I were not able to coordinate very well.

I would hate for facts to get in the way of you pet theory, but on the off-chance that you are town, you should consider that I have ~40 games completed, and a rather wide variety of playstyles are exhibited in those games.

[SpyreX]

*sigh* Meta.

I really hate feeling like we're treading water now, and, of course half the players seem to have vanished off the face of the earth.

None of this has made me feel Zeek isn't scum at all, though.

[armlx]

None of this has made me feel Zeek isn't scum at all, though.

I can agree here.

[Adel]

None of this has made me feel Zeek isn't scum at all, though.

I can agree here.

this is my major problem with this game right now. I am pretty sure that Zeek/HP and Skruffs/armix are scummy, but the partnership doen't really work for me. I don't see all 4 of them being scum together.... help?

[SpyreX]

Zeek/Harvey/Shy Guy/FL

There's your help. Look at the connections between Shy Guy & Knight and Zeek and look at Zeek's play. Of ALL of us, thats the most obvious connections (with Adel/SpyreX/Skruffs/Arm second) and they have, to me, managed to be scummy independently of each other - of the four, FL is the least by far.

[armlx]

Adel, what are your over all thoughts on each other pair?

[armlx]

Also, SpyreX's simul post is win.

[Adel]

Adel, what are your over all thoughts on each other pair?

nameless/firestarter could easily be lurking scum coasting to a win.

skruffs and armix are the only couple I have a solid tell against.

I dug into FL, and got a net town tell. Shy Guy keeps on posting in a scummy way, but when I've taken a hard look at him I haven't walked away convinced that he is scum, even though his attack on me upon replacing in should've triggered my tunnel-vision.

Zeek is scummy as hell, and HP is lurking.

so Shy Guy and FL are my most town-like at this point, which leaves me in a bit of a mess since Shy Guy seems convinced that I am scum, and I'm not able to clear them enough in my mind to really take a crack at the remaining relationship using thier alignment as a "certain town".

Basically, I'm waiting for Zeek to get replaced, get the full set of interactions, and crank hard on the system I built that I think could solve this, but I'm not even optimistic about that since I don't seem to have much townie credibility at this point, and the outcome of my system won't be utterly conclusive.

[armlx]

skruffs and armix are the only couple I have a solid tell against.

Which tell?

so Shy Guy and FL are my most town-like at this point, which leaves me in a bit of a mess since Shy Guy seems convinced that I am scum, and I'm not able to clear them enough in my mind to really take a crack at the remaining relationship using thier alignment as a "certain town".

How about you just assume they are town as per your trust a person theory for the purposes of one reread?

[Shy Guy]

Adel, I meant what you thought at the time. Obviously we know who voted to lynch Gimbo.

And how do you draw the line between chenhsi's actions and Knight's other than that it is convient for you to clear chenhsi? Why, objectively, is chenhsi only foolish and not scummy, but Knight scummy (and not foolish??)?

Where did I say the actions Chenhsi did were not scummy in the abstract? I only said that in the case of Chenhsi, I could show that they were not.

I asked you to show me and you haven't shown me anything. This is why I hate meta-gaming -- anyone can say anything they want about meta, and it can never be conclusively proven. I could say that Knightx has a meta of making crappy cases as town, and I bet you 100$ I could go find some game where he made some crappy case. Looking outside this game for the answers to this game is an endless time sink, and I believe a fruitless endeavor.

I don't even doubt you could find a few posts where chenhsi does what you said he did as town. But without a detailed analysis of every single game he's played, and how much he's done what you say as scum versus how much as town, I'm not going to be convinced. Someone's meta-profile is just too large a story for one to reasonably compile and understand it.

What is the meta of chenhsi pray tell? That he is only concerned with his own survival and willing to divert attention to anyone else besides himself? That "meta" could be figured out from this game as well. Chenhsi's excuse is just as general and no more significant because it comes from meta, and in my opinion less significant.

Its more chenhsi responds in a manner when attacked that doesn't really interact with the attacker's questions. He has a tendency to scramble about saying nothing under pressure.

That's not what he did here -- he diverted attention to anyone else besides himself, quite blatantly.

However, I went back and forth with Adel about both cases (the second is really a natural continuation of the first), and am still trying to engage in dialogue with her.

I do not feel your questions have to do with her reactions to your attack as you are stating now, and are instead a continuation of your logic that was "only to draw reactions".

Nice quotation marks... they don't apply. The inflammatory nature of my post was to draw better reactions. But it is a most grandiose straw-man to say that it was only to draw reactions.

If I thought it was a significant issue, even if it really was just a minor thing, it means I was acting with every intent of finding scum. If I truly believe it was an important issue, regardless of whether it is or isn't, my thinking that it was is of utmost importance.

Mafia is a game of determining motives. Of course determining my motive in bringing up the case would be important!

I don't agree.

This makes no sense. If you could know with 100% certainty that my motive was to find scum, you'd know I was town.

Mafia is a game of analyzing actions. If we are to talk about motives, there are infinite ways for any post to have a motive that goes either way, but examining how an action benefits one side or the other gives a clear answer that can then be combined with probability of being accidental to come to a conclusion. As I see it, your action was one that had large payoffs as scum (a case with no basis that looks genuine) and given the thought put into it is hard to be excusable.

Seeing as how absolutely no one, not even my partner, has bought into it, I don't see how this case "looks genuine", and since I still strongly believe in the tells I found on chenhsi, I don't see how it has no basis.

Adel's actions near the end of day one are exactly why I find her suspicious. She came up with the very plausible idea that lynching Chelseafan would be good because if he was town it would clear Gimbo, and that Chelseafan was likely scum. She then, however, only spent all of two days pursuing this notion, and the largest opposition was from her partner. I believe that not even everyone had commented on the idea. She then "got frustrated" and hammered Gimbo even though she claims she thought the Chelseafan lynch would have been much better.

How does the "getting frustrated" not fit with arguing against her partner to no effective chage?

She reasoned brilliantly that Chelseafan town would prove Gimbo town, and lynched Gimbo anyways. She did this in two day's time. My interpretation of the situation is reasonable, and you are going far out of your way to paint it in a way that it is not reasonable.

This to me reveals that either you: (1) are just trying to justify your statements and don't believe what you are saying, (2) don't understand how powerful and necessary mass claim day 1 is in this setup, (3) think that the mafia would be able to fool the entire town about how powerful and necessary mass claim day 1 is in this setup.

No, I believe that other people in this game were under the impression of number 2 and it was easy for the mafia to agree with them and cause a swing towards no claim.

I strongly disagree.

That said, I am willing to go back and look at those who opposed mass claim D1.

I strongly disagree with your assumptions here.

I don't agree that a massclaim is powerful or necessary day 1. It is totally necessary day 2.

Really, Adel? How could it possibly be better to have less information? And before you say it -- no, the scum aren't going to get confused and mess up who their partner is supposed to be. The scum aren't going to hand the game away because they forget they are pretending to be monogamous lovers.

Not mass claiming just makes the game more difficult to analyze. It is just plain BAD.

Having more than one strong wagon day 1 it totally necessary. Giving scum (who are not able to communicate at all after the game starts) a chance to become uncordinated and foul up their claims is necessary to get a clear game-winning break.

Again, this reasoning is obnoxious. The mafia aren't going to forget what they undoubtedly planned pre-game. They just plain aren't.

The only strong tell I have seen all game is when Skruffs stated that he and Armix were lovers shortly after Armix replaced in. That is exactly the kind of tell that would become much easier to come by if there wasn't a massclaim allready on the books.

Agreed. Skruffs hasn't responded yet, but I tend to interpret the tell the same way you do, I think.

Spryex I think you're either scum or extremely misguided. I find the probability of a CC-HZ pairing very low, and well, a HZ-SF pairing is 0 chance.

You've been sitting on the sidelines as I've argued why I haven't been suspicious, with no thought/input Spryex. I am deeply concerned by this.


Right now I am thinking fairly strongly CC-AS or CC-NF. The only possible pair that I could be overlooking is NF-HZ... I guess that is possible. Maybe it would be better to vote for NF, because my suspicion of Adel is dwinding. I'd want to think about that a lot before doing it though. Maybe CC-HZ isn't as preposterous as I'd thought. Eh, if I had to put money right now, I'd put it on CC-NF.

Really, really strongly. armlx seems strongly to me to be subtly pushing bad-logiced cases, made a significant double standard, and seems to be just making stuff up to refute my points (e.g. that a mass claim could have been postponed until day 2). He also buddies with Spryex to try and get Harvey lynched.

I am just about ready to vote. Skruff's promised post might convince me otherwise, Spryex maybe could, but I really just feel strongly that armlx is shady, and it only confirms my previous suspicion of that pair. He is trying to push away from a him-Skruffs pairing with whatever reasoning possible, no matter if it is good or bad, like the "scum wouldn't pair two newbies together" reasoning.

He also is trying to keep saying that I am scummy even though from my perspective I have refuted to a very reasonable benchmark his arguments.

ppe: Well, Adel, I guess I am not as convinced as you thought .

[armlx]

On meta: I realize Shy Guy, but the similarities seems so shocking to me its obvious.

That's not what he did here -- he diverted attention to anyone else besides himself, quite blatantly.

I'm not seeing that.

Seeing as how absolutely no one, not even my partner, has bought into it, I don't see how this case "looks genuine", and since I still strongly believe in the tells I found on chenhsi, I don't see how it has no basis.

You tried to use a fair understanding of mafia logic to construct it, which is evident. You obviously intended it to look that way. I'm not sure if "looks genuine" is the right phrase for what I am trying to say, but it gets the general point across.

Belief != truth btw.

She reasoned brilliantly that Chelseafan town would prove Gimbo town, and lynched Gimbo anyways.

Have you ever been in that scenario? Where you are trying to explain why someone is town, no one is listening, and the person is such an idiot regardless you aren't even sure their behavior is anything better then null tells?

Why do you disagree with me on my analysis of the mass claim situation?

He is trying to push away from a him-Skruffs pairing with whatever reasoning possible, no matter if it is good or bad, like the "scum wouldn't pair two newbies together" reasoning.

Where did anyone say that?

He also is trying to keep saying that I am scummy even though from my perspective I have refuted to a very reasonable benchmark his arguments.

I'm interested how you can say this, despite your own counter argument of your belief in the case mattering.

[SpyreX]

You've been sitting on the sidelines as I've argued why I haven't been suspicious, with no thought/input Spryex. I am deeply concerned by this.
Spryex I think you're either scum or extremely misguided. I find the probability of a CC-HZ pairing very low, and well, a HZ-SF pairing is 0 chance.

Right now I am thinking fairly strongly CC-AS or CC-NF. The only possible pair that I could be overlooking is NF-HZ... I guess that is possible. Maybe it would be better to vote for NF, because my suspicion of Adel is dwinding. I'd want to think about that a lot before doing it though. Maybe CC-HZ isn't as preposterous as I'd thought. Eh, if I had to put money right now, I'd put it on CC-NF.

Good thing you cleared up a 0 chance of you being scum with Zeek. Notice, again, my vote is sitting on Zeek because he's been scummy. Your previous incarnation was pro-zeek by omission, you've been pro-zeek all the way. You say I'm misguided when my vote isn't on you. I think its the most probable pairing with you and Zeek, but if I'm wrong about you, I sure dont think I am about Zeek.

Look above. Again, in all your pairings its still not ever Zeek. Ever. I have not seen a reason for this belief - you've made a case on others being scum, but I have not yet seen ONE reason I can go "Ohh, thats a good reason Zeek is playing town." You're not even suspicious, its just he's being town.

As for the thought / input..well, I've been reading along, but it just feels like more of the same. Something revolutionary happens, I might change my mind. [/quote]