Open 83 - Polygamist Mafia (Game over!) before 628

forbiddanlight · Post Post #1000 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 3:43 pm

I've spent most of my life playing with odds. I'm insane enough to go for an

Unvote, vote: Nameless

armlx · Post Post #1001 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 3:43 pm

I still like my Shy Guy vote.

SpyreX · Post Post #1002 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 3:47 pm

Not as much as I like my Zeek vote

Adel · Post Post #1003 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 3:48 pm

forbiddanlight wrote:I've spent most of my life playing with odds. I'm insane enough to go for an
Unvote, vote: Nameless

'k

Unvote, vote: Nameless

Adel · Post Post #1004 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 3:49 pm

Adel wrote:
it basically outs Nameless/Cyber as scum.

unvote, vote:Nameless

sometimes I am amazed that I am ever functional with this level of retardation.

Nameless · Post Post #1005 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 6:14 pm

Adel wrote:
forbiddanlight wrote:
it basically outs Nameless/Cyber as scum.
How does it do that?
it is an odds/math thing.

I can't quite put into words how poor an idea gambling on a hunch that might

slightly

increase your chances of hitting scum over a random vote is when compared to the amount of dubious actions and arguments displayed by other players (or even myself) previously that you could instead vote on. Of course, it's hard to take any votes by Adel seriously with how often they've changed for little reason, but forbid jumping on for no better reason would obviously seem to further indicate them being the mafia group.

Not to mention voting someone because nobody is voting them seems ... counter intuitive.

Skruffs · Post Post #1006 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 6:50 pm

Erg0 wrote:Quick answer: armlx/Skruffs and Adel/SpyreX as scum, Shy Guy/forbiddanlight as town.

Why do you think Adel is town?

We don't need to catch all four bad guys. Only one. Adel is so obviously the one to catch that her partners are making it even easier by trying to deflect, safetly, attention away from her. If she were town, scum would be bouncing up and down on her grave by now.

Shy Guy · Post Post #1007 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 7:19 pm

Lynch preference in order:

Armlx, Nameless, Erg0, Adel.

I am pretty sure at this point that it is Nameless and armlx.

I think I've done all I can do to argue for that conclusion.

I think armlx is a slightly better lynch because they could be scum with Adel, and I will gladly switch back to armlx if Adel and my partner are willing, but I am very happy to settle for a Nameless lynch as opposed to an Erg0 lynch.

Unvote; vote: Nameless

SpyreX · Post Post #1008 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 7:46 pm

Since I just found out that I'll be out of town the next week with fairly limited access...what the hell. I still think its Zeek though.

Unvote, Vote Nameless.

Nameless · Post Post #1009 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:06 pm

Adel, Spyrex, Forbiddanlight and Shy Guy just all jumped to vote me, so help me god if any town players hammer without stopping to think about the pattern here ...

armlx · Post Post #1010 (ISO) » Tue Sep 02, 2008 11:59 pm

Knight had a lot of unfollowed up suspicions on FS, both random voted each other.

Nameless barely made any votes at all......

The only thing I really wish had happened for info on nameless was a full wagon on Shy Guy to see how nameless would have reacted.

All 4 of Knight, fl, Nameless, and FS were on the Gimbo Lynch.

I would still much rather lynch Shy Guy though, and I can't take that pairing seriously given their votes there.

armlx · Post Post #1011 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:58 am

I'm posting this in all my games. My computer power cord just broke again, same issue as last time. I'm going to be on LA for a week or two while I wait for a new one to arrive.

forbiddanlight · Post Post #1012 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:02 am

Wow, that does kinda look bad. The only thing is, I know that you already have tat least two town players on your wagon. If you AREN'T scum nameless (and I'll be surprised if you aren't), then we've already lost since the scum will quickhammer. But, I'm also fairly sure you are scum so that problem won't come up.

Skruffs · Post Post #1013 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:05 am

You saying that you are sure is not convincing forbiddanlight. I could say that Shy Guy's blatant pairing of himself with Adel, to the point of seeing where she will vote and then saying he will follow her, goes against what he earlier said in regards to not trusting Adel. Remember when Adel said that me and (Armlx) were most likely town, and Shy Guy then thought that Adel and me and armlx must be scum and then pushed for me and Armlx's lynch?

Skruffs · Post Post #1014 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:06 am

Secondly, you say you like playing with odds, so you voted Nameless and then after three other people voted nameless behind you, with no reasoning stated on anyone's part, you said that it means that Nameless is omst likely scum.

Right?

forbiddanlight · Post Post #1015 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:10 am

Secondly, you say you like playing with odds, so you voted Nameless and then after three other people voted nameless behind you, with no reasoning stated on anyone's part, you said that it means that Nameless is omst likely scum.

Right?

Not precisely. It's more because of the odds he's most likely scum and he hasn't done anything to diffuse this notion.

SpyreX · Post Post #1016 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:06 am

I'm going to have LA for the next week, but I'll toss in some notes:

I find it very interesting that Skruffs came out of the woodwork defending this more than Nameless has. Although, that would mean that Zeek / Harvey are town and I just dont know what I think about that.

The fact Nameless is sitting at 4 and isn't dead when everyone has chimed in but... Zeek and Harvey. If Nameless IS town, it's drumroll... Zeek/Harvey/FL/ShyGuy

I'll try to hop on and I am going to follow my partner around.

I also dont know what to make of this:

Quick answer: armlx/Skruffs and
Adel/SpyreX as scum
, Shy Guy/forbiddanlight as town.

Why do you think Adel is town?

We don't need to catch all four bad guys. Only one. Adel is so obviously the one to catch that her partners are making it even easier by trying to deflect, safetly, attention away from her. If she were town, scum would be bouncing up and down on her grave by now.

Seems like an odd place to misread 180 degrees.

So Adel, I leave the ball mostly in your court. Personally, I STILL think its gonna end up being SG/FL/Erg0/Harvey - but I couldn't seem to persuade anyone too that so.

Adel · Post Post #1017 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:42 am

SpyreX wrote:I'm going to have LA for the next week, but I'll toss in some notes:

I find it very interesting that Skruffs came out of the woodwork defending this more than Nameless has. Although, that would mean that Zeek / Harvey are town and I just dont know what I think about that.

The fact Nameless is sitting at 4 and isn't dead when everyone has chimed in but... Zeek and Harvey. If Nameless IS town, it's drumroll... Zeek/Harvey/FL/ShyGuy

I'll try to hop on and I am going to follow my partner around.

I also dont know what to make of this:

Quick answer: armlx/Skruffs and
Adel/SpyreX as scum
, Shy Guy/forbiddanlight as town.

Why do you think Adel is town?

We don't need to catch all four bad guys. Only one. Adel is so obviously the one to catch that her partners are making it even easier by trying to deflect, safetly, attention away from her. If she were town, scum would be bouncing up and down on her grave by now.
Seems like an odd place to misread 180 degrees.

So Adel, I leave the ball mostly in your court. Personally, I STILL think its gonna end up being SG/FL/Erg0/Harvey - but I couldn't seem to persuade anyone too that so.

I'm thinking hard about this. Please check the thread regularly from now until the deadline.

SpyreX · Post Post #1018 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 9:29 am

I'll do my best.

forbiddanlight · Post Post #1019 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 9:58 am

So Adel, I leave the ball mostly in your court. Personally, I STILL think its gonna end up being SG/FL/Erg0/Harvey - but I couldn't seem to persuade anyone too that so.

Not that you can be sure, of course, but I know half that group is wrong at least. I'm really actually most iffy on you two if Nameless is somehow town :S.

armlx · Post Post #1020 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:36 pm

If Nameless IS town, it's drumroll... Zeek/Harvey/FL/ShyGuy

Welcome to 10 pages ago. Where we both said that.

Erg0 · Post Post #1021 (ISO) » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:36 pm

Adel: It will no doubt shock you to learn that I'm not particularly on board with your theory. The recent rush looks a lot like a speedlynch gaining steam.

Skruffs wrote:Why do you think Adel is town?

I don't, I think she's scum.

To that end:

Vote: Adel

This one's for you, Zeek!

Skruffs · Post Post #1022 (ISO) » Thu Sep 04, 2008 5:46 am

SOmehow I didn't see hte Adel there, not sure how I missed that.

Why would both players of a town force quick vote a player, especially if two other players than also voted them?And then use the lack of quick hammering as part of hte evidence to keep their votes on them? Granted, if a town person votes someone and their partner also votes them, they would theorietically know that their partner at least isn't scum, ub why would two pairs of townsfolk ALL try to wagon the same person at once? Why wouldn't one partner sit back and try to be objective or continue to scum hunt rather than blatantly just endorsing their partners (And others') votes on that target?

Skruffs · Post Post #1023 (ISO) » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:08 am

Shy Guy wrote: I think armlx is a slightly better lynch because they could be scum with Adel, and I will gladly switch back to armlx if Adel and my partner are willing, but I am very happy to settle for a Nameless lynch as opposed to an Erg0 lynch.

Do any of you see the contradiction in this statement?

eldarad · Post Post #1024 (ISO) » Thu Sep 04, 2008 9:53 am

continued on page 42...