Open 83 - Polygamist Mafia (Game over!) before 628

[eldarad]

Vote Count

Chelseafan (1) -

Harvey Pew

Firestarter (1) -

Adel

ZeekLTK (1) -

SpyreX

Adel (1) -

ZeekLTK

Not voting (6) -

Firestarter, Shy Guy, Chelseafan, Nameless, forbiddanlight, chenhsi

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

[Adel]

... Then again, Adel hasn't exactly struck me as the kind of person to forget something as notable as that. But either way it's not something you should really be using as the basis of a case against someone, especially after that pair has brought it up and given an explanation. So that kind of makes me wary of Shy Guy.

...

Is anybody thinking of a Shy Guy / forbiddanlight / ZeekLTK / Harvey Pew scum group right now? Because considering how hard they're pushing fairly weak cases, I know I am.

which would leave Firestarter/Nameless - SpyreX/Adel - Chelseafan/Chenshi as the 100% - townie wagon needed for us to win.

~~~

Is it just me, or has forbiddanlight been a lot less active in this game since I mentioned how deep a meta check I did on her.

~~~~

In any event, I welcome a response by Adel, and any questions, comments, and insights about this from everyone.

~ How many games of mine have you read at least part of?

~ I never considered the post where I was asked Spyrex to unvote (saying that we can hammer in 48 hours or so) to be a promise to hammer with Spyrex in 48 hours.

In sum, Adel, how can I take you to be doing anything but lying about your hammer on Gimbo? How was it impulsive when you promised to do it 48 hours before?

Also, how can I take your case on Chelseafan as serious scum hunting when you abandon it so easily to vote Gimbo with your partner -- a vote that you had already promised before you even introduced the case on Chelseafan?

It wasn't a promise, only SpyreX thought it was.
Was it less than 48 hours between when I tried to start a Chelsea wagon and when I tossed in a hammer as well? It felt like a much longer period of time to me.

[forbiddanlight]

Is it just me, or has forbiddanlight been a lot less active in this game since I mentioned how deep a meta check I did on her.

I'm in 8 games right now. I overdid it. 6 of them are on this site. Also, I have nothing really to say. I'm burnt out on this game and just want it to end. But I also want to make sure it's a town win. So, I pop in and out reading the new developments.

[ZeekLTK]

So one of your main things against me is because I'm specifically going after one person... you've never seen me do this as town before? (*cough* PEG *cough*)

[SpyreX]

I'm not sure how you're reading that. It's the methods, the timing and the target. Coupled with that, as a much smaller note, is the fact you are focused specifically one one person.

[ZeekLTK]

Also you claim that I stopped suspecting forbidden because no one else was looking at her. But Adel and chenshi both voted for forbidden at the beginning of Day 2...

[SpyreX]

I claim that once there was other people attacking Adel, your attacks stepped up and your suspicions on forbidden fell to the wayside.

[ZeekLTK]

@Zeek

Good lord. You want to know why I changed my opinion on you.

Early on Day 2 you made very calm statments. 406-407 for example. Your suspicions of us, even there, didn't really bother me (in the sense of making you seem scummy).

Because at this time I say forbidden is my top suspect and the only reason I'm not voting him is because I am still leary of you and Adel... you probably see this as "oh ok, all we have to do is make Zeek less suspicious of us and he'll vote for forbidden"

Then, I say I think you're the most town because, at this point, it really seems like you're trying to do what you can and you're open to avenues.

Or because you're trying to get me to drop my suspicions of you and hopefully focus on forbidden.

Then you ask Adel why she hasn't provided a name, which is fine.

THEN, you extrapolate this to be us figuring out someone to mislynch before the information is even there. This is where I start to get bothered some by your play.

After I asked Adel what the list was about and why there was no name provided I started to go back and look at all of Adel's posts. I kept seeing numerous things that bothered me, like Adel constantly not answering questions, not explaining why he opposed the mass claim, giving hints that he has done things to "trick the town" before, etc.

Especially given his response. Prior to asking, I was trying to figure it out myself, and I couldn't come up with any pro-town use for this list. All I could come up with was ways it could help the scum, so his non-response of "why are you getting nervous? the point is to collect data to out scum" also set off red flags because I had already determined that this list was not going to help the town and here he is claiming it will "out scum".

I went back and analyzed all of Adel's quotes from Day 1 and was about to make a big post, but decided not to for the time being.

Then, Firestarter starts pushing with your case about validity...

Well, I hadn't made an entire case, so this was somewhat valid assessment.

From this point on, I dont think I've seen you mention anything but Adel and you have been attacking AND the cases are weak.

This is what I addressed a few posts ago, which seems to me you are saying: "this is the point I really think makes you scummy, because now all you do is focus on Adel" - so I addressed it.

Post 450: You say this is some scheme copied from her 540 game. That we're going to look at the list of nonsuspects and, from it, pull a name and two "idiot townies" are going to along to us. You then start attacking her play all game with lots of sarcasm quotes.

Yeah... and? This makes me scummy how?

My reply to some of your questions in 450, as far as I can tell, were just ignored totally.

I probably didn't think it was too important and just skipped it. But if you want something answered bring it up again.

Your next post, 482: I almost gave this exact example (yet you didn't) and you're saying the case on lynching Chelsea day 1 was crap (I dont think it was a case as much as a logic exposition)

I didn't because I realized if I gave that example it would influence the name he said. If I tip him off that I'm already wary that he is going to tell us Chelsea, maybe he gives a different name...

And I wasn't saying the case on Chelsea was crap, I was saying he was going to tell us it was with something like: "see, I made the case on Chelsea Day 1, but I really didn't believe it. I wanted to see who would follow me and then out them as scum" (which wouldn't out scum at all, but I imagine it would make some people THINK it did - like they incorrectly thought it did in his previous game).

Basically what he did to screw the town in the game he summarized early on here with the whole "I started a bandwagon on MoS but then revealed I didn't think MoS was scum and then got the townies who followed me lynched" - I figured he was going to do the same thing except use Chelsea instead of MoS (and sure enough - he did).

Right after, you vote for her because she's pissed that Chenshi is M.I.A to help us mislynch?

No, I voted him because he listed Chelsea (and I described in the post above it). But I also wanted to point out how he seemed to be upset that chenshi was M.I.A.

Shy Guy then posts putting suspicion on us.

You, not long after, come out more agressive (497). Again, you extrapolate a situation where you've pre-assumed we are scum and what we would do. This includes saying we have never said why mass claim (out of the gate) was a bad idea (P.S. I said why it would make sense not to more than once).

Shy Guy posted suspicions that I had but hadn't posted in the thread. Seeing another player find the exact same things that I had found gave me more confidence in my case, so naturally I came out more aggressive since I was no longer in doubt about my suspicions.

I didn't feel it necessary to completely say everything he had said again, so I just posted tidbits that I felt he had missed (either hadn't noticed or neglected to point out).

You then in the next post say that lynching Chlesea would not be certain to clear Gimbo, but willfully leave of the latter half (near-certainty) which is the whole idea. You then toss in that Adel wants to lynch Gimbo because he'd be awfully sure Gimbo was town with a little hmm.

Yeah I was pointing out that the whole idea was wrong/bad. That near-certainty is not a good thing. If you are going to lynch someone to confirm someone else, you need to be able to confirm the other person, not just be "close enough". Otherwise, what is the point? Then you still have a player that there is doubt about...

And I found Adel's quote about "I'm awfully sure Gimbo is town, so I want to lynch him today" to be quite scummy... if he was awfully sure Gimbo was town then WHY WOULD HE WANT TO LYNCH HIM?? That was the point I was trying to make.

When you next chime in, you're now certain because I crossed them off for "no reason" - disagreeing with why I personally cross them off isn't no reason. You then push ANOTHER odd claim from Adel and again ignore my questions about it.

I explained this. There was no good reason to cross them off. If you consider that the scum may have bussed then you have no reason to cross them off.

Then, 549 (we're getting to present) you make another statement about my intentions followed up as an expose' into my thought process which, of course, is wrong and, again, is built around the assumption I am scum.

Well, to me this is what happened:

-I said I was suspicious of forbidden and only slightly weary of Adel
-You listed me as the "most town" player
-Adel became my top suspect
-You suddenly list me as "most suspicious" and vote for me

I have to wonder if maybe your reason for listing me "most town" maybe wasn't legit and you have other motives (which is all I suggested, although more lengthy, in that post).

[SpyreX]

These attempts to look into my thought process are frankly, becoming ridiculous.

Because at this time I say forbidden is my top suspect and the only reason I'm not voting him is because I am still leary of you and Adel... you probably see this as "oh ok, all we have to do is make Zeek less suspicious of us and he'll vote for forbidden"

No, I saw this as: "Zeek is looking for scummy behavior in multiple people, but isn't placing an ill-thought out vote because he's looking for more information"

Or because you're trying to get me to drop my suspicions of you and hopefully focus on forbidden.

How often have I brought up forbidden today? In fact, as I said, of the 4 of you I think are scum she is the LEAST scummy of the bunch.

Especially given his response. Prior to asking, I was trying to figure it out myself, and I couldn't come up with any pro-town use for this list. All I could come up with was ways it could help the scum, so his non-response of "why are you getting nervous? the point is to collect data to out scum" also set off red flags because I had already determined that this list was not going to help the town and here he is claiming it will "out scum".

On the SAME PAGE Adel explains why she's doing what she is. You, as per usual, disregard it and give another "You are scum and this is why you are doing it." statement.

Yeah... and? This makes me scummy how?

AGAIN, you have made the basic assumption that:
1.) We are scum.
2.) People are going to blindly follow whatever Adel says

And I wasn't saying the case on Chelsea was crap, I was saying he was going to tell us it was with something like: "see, I made the case on Chelsea Day 1, but I really didn't believe it. I wanted to see who would follow me and then out them as scum" (which wouldn't out scum at all, but I imagine it would make some people THINK it did - like they incorrectly thought it did in his previous game).

When I explained a bit back why the lynch of Chelsea would have made sense on day 1 - there is a correlation (althouhg not as strong) that the Gimbo case clears Chelsea. AGAIN you are pre-giving a thought process to events that have not taken place. Adel never said any of the things you are stating are what make her scum.

No, I voted him because he listed Chelsea (and I described in the post above it). But I also wanted to point out how he seemed to be upset that chenshi was M.I.A.

Chenshi being M.I.A. right now should bother everyone. Again, I'm not seeing how this is scummy.

Yeah I was pointing out that the whole idea was wrong/bad. That near-certainty is not a good thing. If you are going to lynch someone to confirm someone else, you need to be able to confirm the other person, not just be "close enough". Otherwise, what is the point? Then you still have a player that there is doubt about...

Near-certainty > no certainty which is where we are today. Unless their play was different today, I wouldn't have had doubts.

And I found Adel's quote about "I'm awfully sure Gimbo is town, so I want to lynch him today" to be quite scummy... if he was awfully sure Gimbo was town then WHY WOULD HE WANT TO LYNCH HIM?? That was the point I was trying to make.

Show me this post. Give me the post number. I am not seeing it.

Well, to me this is what happened:

-I said I was suspicious of forbidden and only slightly weary of Adel
-You listed me as the "most town" player
-Adel became my top suspect
-You suddenly list me as "most suspicious" and vote for me

To me this is what happened:

-You said you were suspicious of forbidden and only slightly weary of Adel.
- I list you as the most town player.
- Adel gives her plan for names.
- You question it.
- Firestarter questions it more.
- You then start focusing only on Adel
- Shy Guy posts with his suspicions on Adel
- You then become single-minded in your persuit
- I watch this trend and vote for you.

It wouldn't have mattered WHO it was; the fact it is Adel, the one person who I KNOW is town makes it easier to remove doubt about the validity of the "me too" flag you've been waiving with this whole mess. Each time a person shows suspicion you're right there to add yours on.

If that wasn't enough, I love this whole business:

to get everyone here against the townie who did propose it first, and then when they are wrong they can just say "oh, well I was just basing it on the last game..."

"oh, well we were basing it on the last game, I guess we were just wrong" to try to avoid any suspicion/backlash...

It seems to me that compiling a list like this will only help the scum (either yourself or others) determine who the easiest town target is to push for a mislynch (or, at the very least, the hardest target - to stay away from). Maybe you and Fire aren't scum, but you and someone else are... now you see a couple players think Fire is town so you won't go after him because you think it's unlikely he'll be mislynched.

You just want to have a look at the list, work out some scheme, come up with a name that fits your scheme (as your choice) and then somehow set someone up as being the (mis)lynch. And since you only need 2/6 of us to vote with you (since surely your 3 scumbuddies will be right there saying "oh yeah, that's a great plan! let' do it!", you figure there will be two idiot townies that go along with you.

I even typed out "I wouldn't be surprised if you try to tell us you think Chelsea is the most town player and then try to say your whole case against him was crap and you are going to claim you were just saying that to trick/trap people like you did by attacking MoS and then suddenly turning on everyone who followed you in the MoS game".

And that explains why you are pissed that chenshi is M.I.A because he can't help you mislynch people.

I still think Adel/SpyreX decided before the game that since a scum had brought up the mass claim in the last game that they were going to sit back and wait until someone brought it up and then scream bloody murder and keep saying "scum did it last game, scum did it last game" (SpyreX also points out that "scum did it last game" several times too). Then, after that person gets mislynched they can just say "oh, well we thought it would be like last game - that's why we attacked them" to avoid suspicion for pushing for that person's lynch.

I'm starting to think SpyreX listed me as town because he saw that, at the time, I was mostly in favor of lynching forbidden. He probably figured by listing me as town I'd drop my earlier suspicions of his group and join his partner, Adel, in going after forbidden. If forbidden is town then Adel/SpyreX and whoever their scum partners are (either Firestarter or Chelsea - still not 100% sure which it is, so that's why I'm voting Adel instead of one of them) will have 4 votes to contribute and then me and Harvey would likely be the other 2 that would have mislynched forbidden and lost the game for the town.

Because at this time I say forbidden is my top suspect and the only reason I'm not voting him is because I am still leary of you and Adel... you probably see this as "oh ok, all we have to do is make Zeek less suspicious of us and he'll vote for forbidden"

And I wasn't saying the case on Chelsea was crap, I was saying he was going to tell us it was with something like: "see, I made the case on Chelsea Day 1, but I really didn't believe it. I wanted to see who would follow me and then out them as scum" (which wouldn't out scum at all, but I imagine it would make some people THINK it did - like they incorrectly thought it did in his previous game).

I have to wonder if maybe your reason for listing me "most town" maybe wasn't legit and you have other motives (which is all I suggested, although more lengthy, in that post).

EVERY one of these posts by you:
Attributes your thought process to:
a.) Assuming we are scum or
b.) Assuming we are scum to events that NEVER HAPPENED

Versus:

I even typed out

"I wouldn't be surprised if you try to tell us you think Chelsea is the most town player and then try to say your whole case against him was crap and you are going to claim you were just saying that to trick/trap people like you did by attacking MoS and then suddenly turning on everyone who followed you in the MoS game".

I went back and analyzed all of Adel's quotes from Day 1 and was about to make a big post,

but decided not to for the time being.

Well, I hadn't made an entire case,

so this was somewhat valid assessment.

Seeing another player find the exact same things that I had found

gave me more confidence in my case, so naturally I came out more aggressive since I was no longer in doubt about my suspicions.

So, these things that ACTUALLY OCCURED within the game that you didn't do (making your post about Chelsea,

your

analysis of Adel day 1, showing your supsisions matched Shy Guys), but you supposedly did are expected to be taken as happening?
Also, you want some evidence of the "me too" approach you've had most of today, here you go.

[Shy Guy]

... Then again, Adel hasn't exactly struck me as the kind of person to forget something as notable as that. But either way it's not something you should really be using as the basis of a case against someone, especially after that pair has brought it up and given an explanation. So that kind of makes me wary of Shy Guy.

Where did they bring it up and give an explanation? Why isn't it case-worthy if Adel did remember and is lying?

Is anybody thinking of a Shy Guy / forbiddanlight / ZeekLTK / Harvey Pew scum group right now? Because considering how hard they're pushing fairly weak cases, I know I am.

What cases have you pushed at all today that related to day 1 actions? What scum hunting have you done? How strong would you say it has been? Do you think in general it is better to try lots of seemingly weak cases or to try only a few seemingly weak cases?

I am fairly certain that the two scum groups are among the three groups you didn't mention, and that the game will be won or lost based on if that group manages to both figure this out and convince us and Z/H that they are the town group.

@Spryex: Yes. And that was the strongest opposition Adel seemed to get. So again I am unsure why she caved.

which would leave Firestarter/Nameless - SpyreX/Adel - Chelseafan/Chenshi as the 100% - townie wagon needed for us to win.

I am doubtful that two of those groups are town. However, I am feeling a lot less confident in general than I felt when I replaced in. With a gun to my head, I would have to choose Adel & Spryex as scum but things are much less clear now.

Is it just me, or has forbiddanlight been a lot less active in this game since I mentioned how deep a meta check I did on her.

It seems my partner has been less active, yes. do you not love me?

In any event, I welcome a response by Adel, and any questions, comments, and insights about this from everyone.

~ How many games of mine have you read at least part of?

Too many to count, or remember. Definitely too many to think you have just one play style that I can make generalizations to.

~ I never considered the post where I was asked Spyrex to unvote (saying that we can hammer in 48 hours or so) to be a promise to hammer with Spyrex in 48 hours.

Why hammer within 5 hours of 48 hours after you made it then?? What did you consider that post to mean?

In sum, Adel, how can I take you to be doing anything but lying about your hammer on Gimbo? How was it impulsive when you promised to do it 48 hours before?

Also, how can I take your case on Chelseafan as serious scum hunting when you abandon it so easily to vote Gimbo with your partner -- a vote that you had already promised before you even introduced the case on Chelseafan?

It wasn't a promise, only SpyreX thought it was.
Was it less than 48 hours between when I tried to start a Chelsea wagon and when I tossed in a hammer as well? It felt like a much longer period of time to me.

Yes it was about 48 hours. Why give up so easily??

---

I doubt this will be of issue in the other game I am in, as it is moving very slowly. But with the fast pace here, I'll say: I may not be able to post for the next few days, so continue on for a bit without me.

[forbiddanlight]

t seems my partner has been less active, yes. Sad do you not love me?

I did respond to your questions. I really don't have much to say right now.

[Nameless]

... Then again, Adel hasn't exactly struck me as the kind of person to forget something as notable as that. But either way it's not something you should really be using as the basis of a case against someone, especially after that pair has brought it up and given an explanation. So that kind of makes me wary of Shy Guy.

Where did they bring it up and give an explanation? Why isn't it case-worthy if Adel did remember and is lying?

Post 566 and post 567. And it isn't case worthy because you can't prove that Adel is lying and you couldn't really blame her for forgetting something in the mess that was Gimbo's lynching.

[Adel]

In sum, Adel, how can I take you to be doing anything but lying about your hammer on Gimbo? How was it impulsive when you promised to do it 48 hours before?

Also, how can I take your case on Chelseafan as serious scum hunting when you abandon it so easily to vote Gimbo with your partner -- a vote that you had already promised before you even introduced the case on Chelseafan?

It wasn't a promise, only SpyreX thought it was.
Was it less than 48 hours between when I tried to start a Chelsea wagon and when I tossed in a hammer as well? It felt like a much longer period of time to me.

Yes it was about 48 hours. Why give up so easily??

- Gimbo pissed me off by being so scummy
- Spyrex pissed me off by ignoring my Chelsea case
- I got worried that I was talking myself out of an accurate lynch, possibly with disastrous consequences. (the "Gimbo must be scum with adel since we lynched Chlseafan-town" scenario)
- I didn't know that it was close to 48 hours, or just 48 hours. It felt like long enough to get some result, but I had none, not even a nibble.
- So I made a choice, type out some long post attempting to defend the indefensible Gimbo, or just say "Fuck it" and lynch him and move on to day 2.
- btw, my read on SSF towards the end of day 1 was that he saw which way the game was going, and just said "fuck it" knowing that Gimbo would either die day 1 or day 2. I figured that if he were town he would've been making some serious attempt to help the town. If he were scum, his actions made more sense to me, as in "why get involved in a futile battle".

[Adel]

EBWOP:- I didn't know that it was close to 48 hours, or just 48 hours, since I didn't intend for that post I made to be interpreted as a "promise", "we

can hammer

in 48 hours" was the part you focused on, the poart I was really interested in was getting Spyrex to unvote. It felt like enough time had gone by to get some result from my Chelseafan case, but my case had none, not even a nibble.

[SpyreX]

I am fairly certain that the two scum groups are among the three groups you didn't mention, and that the game will be won or lost based on if that group manages to both figure this out and convince us and Z/H that they are the town group.

I am doubtful that two of those groups are town. However, I am feeling a lot less confident in general than I felt when I replaced in. With a gun to my head, I would have to choose Adel & Spryex as scum but things are much less clear now.

You realize both of these quotes are implicitly saying Zeek/Harvey are town. Why?

It felt like enough time had gone by to get some result from my Chelseafan case, but my case had

none, not even a nibble

.

After I finished my reread, this also really bothered me. Again, I know I am very much the culprit in dropping my hammer before I finished my reread, but this does, STILL, really bother me.

[Adel]

It felt like I was trying to explain how a specific geological formation was the result of an unusual mix of glacier and wind erosion, only to notice that my audience was a bunch of young-earth creationists. I was wasting my breath.

[Firestarter]

QUICK NOTE

Outta town for a couple of days.
Ill post thoughts when back.
Possibly Monday.

[Adel]

Be active. I will prod players on request if they have not posted in the thread for 48 hours or more. I will prod players on my own initiative if I notice you have not posted for 96 hours. Failure to post in the thread within 72 hours of receiving the prod will result in you being replaced.

mod

please prod chenshi

[SpyreX]

I'd still like responses from well, anyone, about my statements about Zeek & Shy Guy.

There's been a definite connection made from Shy Guy ---> Zeek multiple times this game and I'd like an opinion on it.

[forbiddanlight]

I have no idea. All I know is Shy Guy is town, and that I actually feel Zeek could be scum.

[eldarad]

chenhsi has been prodded

[SpyreX]

@Forbid,

What do you think about the Day 1 when Knight said he'd be willing to lynch everyone but Zeek/Harvey.
What do you think about the fact Shy Guy just implicity said Zeek/Harvey are town?

[forbiddanlight]

What do you think about the Day 1 when Knight said he'd be willing to lynch everyone but Zeek/Harvey.
What do you think about the fact Shy Guy just implicity said Zeek/Harvey are town?

I think Knight was a fucking moron. I think Shy Guy is barking up the wrong tree.

[SpyreX]

I dont think you'd hear an argument from me about Knight's play.

What do you think about Zeek's play this game?

[forbiddanlight]

What do you think about Zeek's play this game?

I don't like it. First there was that analysis which may or may not have been biased. Then he went from me to you all on admittedly weak cases. But I still feel there is distancing factor here, and that the scum team could be Harvey/Zeek/Adel/SpyreX