Invitational 10: 2005-2006. Game over! before 624

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick suggests a bold strategy out of the gate, and one he knows will probably gain traction. I'd be interested to hear his specific motivations.

Sarc voting Ether and then finding safe harbor in the fourth spot on a bandwagon when the

third

spot wasn't at all appealing to him.

PJ following along merrily with unknown quantities elvis and Patrick.

DGB avoiding the MBL wagon after she ruthlessly butchered me in the first 5 minutes of Space Monkeys II.

Bluesoul curiously hesitant to put a second vote on chamber, chooses to OMGUS DGB by proxy instead.

OGML also avoids the MBL wagon and hits Sarc with an appropriate vote.

Elias is the only one of you I'm not familiar with. I'd probably vote for Sarc now, but I don't want a competing wagon... yet.

vote: Elias_the_thief

[MrBuddyLee]

Day One MBL bandwagons traditionally gain traction. Apparently I'm a fun target. Apparently you're unaware of this.

And I don't want a competing bandwagon just yet because I'm interested to see how this one plays out.

[MrBuddyLee]

Sarc, whether you're scum or town, your performance thus far is less than impressive.

Ether, why e_k?

[MrBuddyLee]

Nice reference to nailing MBL's scumbuddies, I'm sure that helped us fight the good fight since we've got

three

players that get to stare that right in the face as they think about their posts.

facepalm: DGB

Is it

three

players because you know I'm not scum and therefore the likely three mafia in this game are watching me cautiously?

unvote, vote: bluesoul

DGB, how am I squirming? Did you find nothing of note in my first content-filled post? If you could agree or disagree with something specific in there, it'd be greatly appreciated.

PJ, I'm pretty sure I have been rampantly D1-wagoned in other games but I'll have to go look to be sure. As for my wagon, the more we talk openly about the reasons I'm fine with it for now the less useful it will be. For now, suffice to say I'm interested to see how people play it. Right now, the scum could easily be the three lurkers, but if they're not, DGB, Sarc and bluesoul are the leading candidates.

e_k, are you thinking that Patrick's choice of a D1 bandwagon target was random? Cause I'm pretty sure it wasn't.

[MrBuddyLee]

Really, bluesoul? I could have sworn you were referring to three scum having to be cautious. Why would town have to/want to "think about their posts" in a defensive way? And why are those three, if they're scum, any more in need of being careful than any of the other 8 when discussing the MBL wagon? Your post implied that three people were just given the opportunity to avoid a trap of some kind.

Sarc, I was town in the game we just completed after a full year where you were scum lynched on D2. Why's my play remind you of my play in mith's game?

[MrBuddyLee]

Really, bluesoul? I could have sworn you were referring to three scum having to be cautious.

It's okay, we've all been wrong before, much like you are wrong now. I'm simply saying that the three remaining players that haven't posted are now aware that people are looking for connections between MBLscum and scumbuddies. To Ether, I was assuming MBL has scumbuddies for the purpose of DGB's post, where she basically said she wanted to keep MBL alive so he could help us nail his scumbuddies.

If

he is scum, then that just threw up a red flag to elias, chamber, and IH, the three players that haven't yet posted. If one of them were scum, they're more keenly aware of a connection with MBL than they may have been if the comment had gone unsaid.

So we've tipped off the three people who haven't posted but we haven't tipped off the scumbags who

have

posted? Curious, but repetitive for me to belabor it at this point. Oddity noted.

That seems duller now that I've gone and typed it out. Why'd you make a big analysis without a single question mark, only to ask for clarification on my vote? Did my answer really surprise you?

In my first post of the game, I felt like stylistically making observations rather than asking questions. And no, your vote didn't exactly surprise me but I was curious as to why e_k out of the four MBL wagoners. Sarc looked sketchier to me at the time.

[MrBuddyLee]

At the time, Sarc looked sketchiest to me out of {e_k, Sarc, PJ, Patrick}. I'm rethinking my comment about {DGB, Sarc, bluesoul} as scumteam, however, as it's unlikely they'd be this cohesive and unsubtle early in the game. They're the three who've done the oddest things thus far, though, so the question is, which one is being not just odd but anti-town.

e_k, I don't think I get D1-wagoned cause I'm hated, I think it's just a fun thing for people to do. I give good reaction. Patrick can give you the real reason he chose me though.

Liking Ether and to a lesser extent OGML right now. IH and chamber need to get their shit together--I don't imagine TSQ would have started this game with them away on vacation.

[MrBuddyLee]

I like this game. A lot. People who aren't willing to participate on D1 don't deserve to be in it, especially when there are probably a few people dying to get involved.

IH is gone til the 12th. That's doable.

Starting Monday, I'll be working at an overnight summer camp, and I'll probably only be able to post on weekends. If this is a problem, I can...

Unacceptable.

Chamber hasn't posted in a year. Is he really in this game?

[MrBuddyLee]

We still need to decide how we're going to deal with those people if you don't deal with them. I'm not trying to pee in your Cheerios, mang.

[MrBuddyLee]

Minor town vibes on OGML. Could easily be wrong, considering how little he's said, but rather than hold back on my silly gut instinct I just blabbed it. Something about his combination of pithy comments just felt right and not phony.

[MrBuddyLee]

It's recap of events taken from MBL's pov. It's a bit martyr-like, and throws as much suspicion around as possible. Suspicion on those for wagoning, and suspicion on those for not wagonning. And then voting none of the people he has thrown suspicion on, which seems like an odd choice.

I would think he would choose one of the people he is suspicious of. If he doesn't choose one of them, I have to assume he is either 1)not serious in his accusations or 2)afraid to get in trouble (or OMGUS) and feels it easier to take a random vote on elias.

It was my first post of the game. Your hyperventilation is duly noted.

FOS: e_k

[MrBuddyLee]

I still think my conclusion was just as logical or more so than the standard conclusion, and I defintiely didn't intentionally misconstrue:

Following on last post, the way MBL misunderstood bluesoul doesn't seem reasonable to me.

He only quotes bluesoul partially, since that is the only way it is possible to misunderstand him.

I smell something amiss in the way he only partially quotes bluesoul.

Patrick, now that you have forced me to pay more attention to this game I am realizing how much I don't like MBL.

I'm going back to him.

unvote; vote MrBuddyLee

Here's bluesoul's full post:

I'd rather see posts from those that haven't made it into the game yet, elias, IH, and chamber. Nice reference to nailing MBL's scumbuddies, I'm sure that helped us fight the good fight since we've got three players that get to stare that right in the face as they think about their posts.

facepalm: DGB

It doesn't say "think about their

first

posts". Therefore, the obvious conclusion to draw, regardless of bluesoul's first sentence, is that he is talking about the three people who would benefit from thinking about their posts in the context of "MBLscum in trouble"--that is, the three scum. It just doesn't ring true. I don't see proportionality in the concern here.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not intentionally misconstruing your words. There's a 30% chance that you're scum, and a 20% chance that you're scum telling the truth about your intentions there, and a 10% chance that you're scum who I caught in a slip-up and now you're lying about it to cover your ass.

So no, I'm not "intentionally misconstruing". I'm covering all the possibilities from my perspective.

[MrBuddyLee]

I badly want to vote Elias_the_thief and have a wagon waiting for him upon his return. His effort this weekend is utter fail, particularly considering he's only posting on weekends.

However, there's nothing to gain between now and Friday by voting him, so let's ignore him for a few days and THEN pounce.

[MrBuddyLee]

IH, you igmeoy'ed me and FOSed bluesoul and that's about it. You found #28 and #29 weird, but totally missed my point in 29. The point was: "If bluesoul thinks I am scum, he would not think there are three MORE scum who have been alerted--it would only be two." (There is a differing opinion about what bluesoul intended, and there's a 90% chance he meant something other than what I interpreted, but you should still understand MY post in order to better assess the situation.)

I'm tempted to put him at five but not until we've had more discussion to help us nail his buddies.

Nice reference to nailing MBL's scumbuddies, I'm sure that helped us fight the good fight since we've got three players that get to stare that right in the face as they think about their posts.

Honestly, bluesoul's "concern" there is a little weird, which slightly lowers the chance he's being sincere about who the "three players" he was worried about are. I do find it odd that he'd be worried about all three of {IH, chamber, elias}--especially if he really thinks MBL is scum.

=========================================

There is weak hay being made about my "30%" remark:

I'm not intentionally misconstruing your words. There's a 30% chance that you're scum, and a 20% chance that you're scum telling the truth about your intentions there, and a 10% chance that you're scum who I caught in a slip-up and now you're lying about it to cover your ass.

I am dealing with generalities here. Obviously I can't peg the exact likelihood that someone is making an honest mistake or lying. I am estimating, which is something I do all the time to try and figure out how aggressively to attack something. There's no sense in pushing something repeatedly if there's only a 5% chance it's a reality. I did the rough math, figured there's a 10% chance bluesoul is lying scum on this topic, and decided it wasn't worth pressing beyond what we've already covered.

If you intend to use math at least support it, pulling numbers out of your ass that you have no way of supporting isn't cool.

Speaking of ignoring, explain your "30% scum" line from post 101.

A 30% chance I'm scum, eh? So you know there's a 30/70 ratio? How would you know that if you were not part of the informed minority? Either explain yourself, right now, or stand similarly exposed as scum.

If there are 3 scum, that's 27% of you. 4 scum = 37% of you. I don't really see any other number of scum as likely in an invitational, which will likely be a pretty standard/bland setup. Do you really think my assumption is most likely explained by inside information on the setup, bluesoul? Or are you just making hay? I think we're past the point where statements like Sarc's and DGB's early "we've caught scum" are amusing.

[MrBuddyLee]

Sarc, are you

trying

to pretend there's a connection between you and bluesoul?

This post bothers me for a few reasons:
1) They could be masons, but you're discounting that possibility, or else you wouldn't draw attention to it.
2) They could be scumpartners, but you're discounting that possibility by saying it's "pretending".
3) This question doesn't focus on the relevant aspect of the matter--"WHY" would Sarc "pretend"? Which points to a lack of true curiosity about alignment on your part.

I will say that I saw you make sloppy statements in the California Trilogy game, and you were town who simply wasn't thinking through his posts all the way. Walking the fine line between alerting you-scum to your missteps and coaching you as town, I'll just leave it at that.

I think we can safely remove {OGML, bluesoul, Sarc} as a possible scum trio based on recent interactions.

[MrBuddyLee]

Now, I have no choice but to believe that you came up with 30% due to inside information while you maintain that I, through inside information, came up with three scum players and not the three players I mentioned in the previous sentence you conveniently omitted in your attack.

Unvote, vote MBL

If you're town, you're burying yourself here. It's a commonly-held tenet that 33% of players in any game are scum. The only real possibilities in this game are that 25% or 33% are scum (27% or 37% of the non-MBL players). It's actually a mathematical impossibility that exactly 30% of the players in this game are scum.

And I didn't say you had inside information that there were exactly three scum players--I said that if anything, you have inside information that

I'm not scum

and therefore there are threeish non-MBL players who are scum.

Is bluesoul stretching as town or as scum? Why would town press this issue? Why would scum go out on a limb on something so utterly irrelevant?

[MrBuddyLee]

That was the point of my post, bluesoul.. I thought I noticed a subtlety in your wording that indicated you might be scum:

* You know I'm not scum
* You are pretending not to be scum
* You slip and say there are three other players besides me that are scum, when if I'm actually scum, you should have only been worried about

two

others, not three
* Therefore, your "pretending" got you in trouble

Again, I'm not saying this is actually what happened. I'm saying it's a possibility. And it's weird that you're putting all your eggs in this counterattack when it's such a weak one. Are you really, really sold on the idea that I'm scum at this point?

[MrBuddyLee]

And I'm not trying to clear myself, I'm trying to find scum.

VOTE COUNT NUMBER FIVE

MBL: 3

(Sarc, EK, bluesoul)

Bluesoul: 2

(MBL, DGB)

DGB: 1

(PJ)

Elvis_Knits 2

(patrick, Ether)

sarc: 1

(OGML)

not voting: 2

(Elias, IH)

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm intrigued by the amount of attention given my mathematical exercise. It's quoted below as a refresher:

I'm not intentionally misconstruing your words. There's a 30% chance that you're scum, and a 20% chance that you're scum telling the truth about your intentions there, and a 10% chance that you're scum who I caught in a slip-up and now you're lying about it to cover your ass.

So no, I'm not "intentionally misconstruing". I'm covering all the possibilities from my perspective.

There's no sense in pushing something repeatedly if there's only a 5% chance it's a reality. I did the rough math, figured there's a 10% chance bluesoul is lying scum on this topic, and decided it wasn't worth pressing beyond what we've already covered.

Note that I am using the math to "clear" bluesoul on the issue, or at least to explain why I am putting an end to this line of discussion. Now look at the hay being made about me using math to take heat off bluesoul:

MBL, didn't your numbers come from your on thoughts of Bluesoul and not how many scum are in this game? it's like you used easy math that could be used on ANYONE, and then seemed to try use that as a convincing argument that Bluesoul was scum. Chamber is right.

IH totally misses the point of my numbers exercise. I said there was a 10% chance bluesoul was lying scum, which is hardly an attempt to nail down a "convincing" argument using numbers. Was IH really reading it carefully to determine my alignment, or is he parrotting/dogpiling?

Bluesouls problem may have been with the 30%, but thats easily explained. My problem was with the 1/3 2/3 division you gave him for being scum that slipped up vs scum that you misinterpreted. Not only do your numbers not increase the chance hes scum. (and thus make the attack effectively random) not only do these numbers suggest that he has a significantly higher chance of you having misinterpreted him then anything else, but they are also completely pulled out of nowhere. Please try to explain to me your estimation process. By putting things down as numbers it looks like you are trying to make something appear to be more concrete then it is, as scum or over zealous town.

chamber got the gist of my math and took issue with something entirely different: why did I assume there was a 2/3 chance bluesoul's telling the truth about his intentions about "three players" even if he is scum? First, answering chamber: I spot these "slip-ups" all the time and quite often they're meaningless, regardless of the slipping player's alignment. Even town says things in error or which I misinterpret, so obviously scum can too at a similar frequency. In this particular case, I can envision scum-bluesoul making that statement to cast aspersions on and sow paranoia about the three players who hadn't posted yet. And I'd say that possibility is somewhat more likely than the possibility that he truly slipped as scum and accidentally posted that there are three scum in addition to MBL who he knows is not scum but is pretending is scum. 66%-33% is approximately the right ratio here in my mind.

But back on point. chamber actually read this right and didn't blow things out of proportion, and was curious about something appropriate.

However, I generally don't like percentages being thrown around like they actually mean something when in fact they are the same when applied to any random player in the game. It's a fairly cheap rhetorical trick to make your statement sound as if it holds more weight than it does.

PJ also missed the point of my post entirely. Sure, the "27%-37% of you are scum" part could apply to anyone in the game, but it was obvious that the point of my post was to get into the details of whether bluesoul's "slip" was worth hammering on. And the rest of the numbers, which narrow down to a 10% chance bluesoul was slipping scum, only apply to bluesoul and not to "any random player in the game". So I'm not thrilled with PJ's flippant insinuation that anything about my post was a "cheap rhetorical trick". Why would PJ make such a careless, offhand remark that doesn't really accurately describe the situation?

Speaking of ignoring, explain your "30% scum" line from post 101.

This part from bluesoul was somewhat silly, but sure, going a brief ways down this line of questioning is appropriate.

Now, I have no choice but to believe that you came up with 30% due to inside information

This part from bluesoul is really, really reaching. I'm not scum, and I see no way that the fallout from the "30%" issue could even remotely convince someone otherwise beyond a shadow of a doubt. Bizarre.

I want to see how your concrete 10% gets support from concrete facts. You're appealing to logic where none exists. Why is it 10 percent? Why not 5 percent? Or 20? You call it a generality or an estimation now but that's not the tone you gave originally. Shall I read it back to you?

Here, bluesoul expresses the same question chamber did, but it's weird because he's attacking me for my post which said there was only a 10% chance he was lying scum in this scenario. Is the use of estimation as a tool to determine what to press and what to abandon really that alarming?

You say I'm pressing the issue while you won't shut up about it.

Actually, I tried to put the issue to bed. You necroed it, but it's fine if you're town and don't think you came off as clean as you should have. Again:

There's no sense in pushing something repeatedly if there's only a 5% chance it's a reality. I did the rough math, figured there's a 10% chance bluesoul is lying scum on this topic, and decided it wasn't worth pressing beyond what we've already covered.

I tried to move on, and...

Really? Let's see the math then. I want to see how your concrete 10% gets support from concrete facts. You're appealing to logic where none exists. Why is it 10 percent? Why not 5 percent? Or 20? You call it a generality or an estimation now but that's not the tone you gave originally. Shall I read it back to you?

Now, I have no choice but to believe that you came up with 30% due to inside information while you maintain that I, through inside information, came up with three scum players and not the three players I mentioned in the previous sentence you conveniently omitted in your attack.

Unvote, vote MBL

...you reframed the issue as the middle prong of an attack on me. That's why we're still discussing it.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ok, done. So what do you think of Patrick's, PJ's, IH's, and chamber's contributions to the discussion?

[MrBuddyLee]

You haven't done much scumhunting. At the time, you'd made no comments about anyone's alignment

, and your question to me seemed to ignore the meat of the game in favour of something irrelevant, which you twice said was irrelevant before.

I'll try to comment more though, if it will make you feel better about me.

Beginning at the beginning!

e_k, why do you want Patrick to feel better about you? Couldn't he be scum?

e_k's primary line of attack has been against MBL. She pressed MBL because his first post criticized Patrick's first post:

But MBL was asking Patrick for his voting motivations on a vote he made in the first post of the game. It doesn't seem like a big explanation is really possible there.

A little odd considering you cut Patrick slack for his first post and not me. But it was early, so haymaking is more acceptable on page one.

Next, e_k had a problem with my first-post vote for Elias, suggesting I should have voted for someone I'm suspicious of instead of for a lurker. Fair enough, I suppose, except that she hits me for "throwing around as much suspicion as possible", but doesn't pinpoint which of MBL's observations, if any, strike her as inappropriate to raise in a first post. Perhaps they were all reasonable, e_k? If so, why criticize me for making them in post #1?

More recently, e_k didn't like the way I "misunderstood" bluesoul and seems to think I didn't really misunderstand him. She hits me for quote-snipping. e_k, do you understand why I didn't think the snipped sentence referred to the quoted sentence? I've made reference to my thought process on that a couple times.

On quote-snipping in general: it cleans up threads. At the top of this post you can see how I've snipped to add clarity and punctuate. I did the same in my post about bluesoul's "three players" because I honestly read the first sentence as unrelated to the one I quoted. I still don't think they necessarily read as related, other than the happenstance that both contain the word three.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm actually in the process of reevaluating. I'm thinking his gyrations almost look a little townish to me, which offsets some of the scummy looking things. My leading candidates are e_k, PJ, DGB, IH. There's actually a specific post that makes that first trio look unlikely, raising the possibility that elias is involved somehow. Ether and possibly Patrick are looking slightly decent. And before anyone else gives me shit for finding people "slightly decent", zip it already. I don't trust anyone in this game--this is for the sake of discussion.

[MrBuddyLee]

2.)

MBL, my point apparently is not being gotten across other. Pretty much the only thing I got from your percentage post was that you think there's a 30% chance Bluesoul is scum. And my reaction to that is

whoop-de-do

; that same number can be applied to

everybody

. Here's why your post is a rhetorical a rhetorical trick:

You are not even making the minimal assertion that "this post makes Bluesoul more likely to be scum", or else you would have started off with a percentage

higher

than 30%.

And if you aren't even bothering to make that assertion, then I don't understand why you would screw around with percentages unless you wanted your post to look scientific / mathematic, and therefore more weighty.

It's clear you didn't read my last few posts carefully. And I don't need to gussy up my posts to make them seem weighty, you should know that. You smell

off

this game.

unvote, vote: PJ

[MrBuddyLee]

The percentages were used to make the point than only about 10% of the time, bluesoul is lying scum in that situation, and therefore I wanted to drop the issue so as not to bore the shit out of everyone over something 90% likely to be irrelevant. At no point did I use the 30% to make it seem more or less likely that bluesoul was scum. That's why this entire discussion is so bizarre, kapiche?

[MrBuddyLee]

*huggles*

<.<

*bites*

[MrBuddyLee]

IH, do you find those posts strange because bluesoul and I don't look particularly townish to you? Please elaborate.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick suggests a bold strategy out of the gate, and one he knows will probably gain traction. I'd be interested to hear his specific motivations.

Sarc voting Ether and then finding safe harbor in the fourth spot on a bandwagon when the

third

spot wasn't at all appealing to him.

PJ following along merrily with unknown quantities elvis and Patrick.

DGB avoiding the MBL wagon after she ruthlessly butchered me in the first 5 minutes of Space Monkeys II.

Bluesoul curiously hesitant to put a second vote on chamber, chooses to OMGUS DGB by proxy instead.

OGML also avoids the MBL wagon and hits Sarc with an appropriate vote.

e_k,
1) What makes you think I was criticizing people who bandwagoned me? I think Patrick's move is pro-town, depending on the reasoning. Sarc's was obviously curious and PJ's and yours were somewhat meaningless at the time.
2) What makes you think I was criticizing people who chose not to bandwagon me? My comment about DGB was a joke. I commented that OGML's vote was appropriate.
3) Sarc jumped off Ether in a curious manner, and bluesoul hesitated to vote chamber in a curious manner. Did you note both of those events too and find them un-comment-worthy?

It's possibly the finest first post I've ever made. *beams*

[MrBuddyLee]

*facepalm* yes, I'm scum, I've just given up the ghost.

Voting for townies, especially early in the game, can easily be a pro-town act. If Patrick was truly paranoid about me being scum again, his action was protown in my eyes. I note that he's since remarked I'm slightly townish-looking, which I'm tempted to call pro-town as well.

[MrBuddyLee]

FOS: bluesoul

[MrBuddyLee]

bluesoul smelling like indignant town. I FOSed him earlier for his post that cut chamber slack instead of pressing chamber for "bad behavior" but I'm a vibes player and I am getting modest town vibes off bluesoul despite his "sloppiness".

I'm getting modest "trying to look involved but not really scumhunting" vibes off of PJ.

[MrBuddyLee]

<3 airports and flight delays when there are scum to be found!

IH's first post looks inquisitive and thoughtful, if sloppy and rushed. Since then he's made some insinuations not backed up by argument and left his cases open enough to give him wiggle room and to encourage loose incrimination by others. I would guess he's lazy town right now. I have another problem with IH that could be explained by either hypothesis, so his next post or two will bear significant weight in my mind.

---

Elias worries me. He calls out the following:
* bluesoul for overreacting
* Sarc for being overly cold
* PJ and Ether for a possible staged fight
* agreement with a throwaway PJ vote (odd)
* concurrence with e_k for finding MBL fishy
* bluesoul for a "stupid" attack based on misread of tone

He then refuses to vote, afraid of having an effect on the game without full knowledge. Specifically worries he might "regret" any vote decision a week later upon his return. VERY strange.. what vote in this game full of measured players could possibly be regretted a week later? In my opinion, only a vote on town that leads to a bad mislynch or a vote on a scumpartner that leads to an unintended wagon that spirals. More likely the latter--and bluesoul and DGB were the people Elias avoided voting for. (Then again, if he's scum, it's more likely he's wary of them getting run up for their posts today and him getting caught on a wagon that makes him look bad.)

Super sketchy. Elias is on my super-security-screening no-fly list right now.

fake edit: how tough is it to be "10-1 as scum" when you don't post very often? must be pretty easy to lurk through day one, improving your odds by 25% or so there alone. Will you be proud of your victory this invitational if you lurk through it with a post a week?

---

Speaking of coasting, if Ether is scum she's going to be able to coast for the next five days and then again for much of August. I recommend that she get her ass on the record pronto about as much as possible, allowing everyone to weigh in heavily. Her posts look decent early D1, particularly this:

I don't like the way you've stressed the damage of that post, considering you've never shown any interest in MBL's alignment.

and this

I'm going to assume from the fact that you didn't press me further that my response, which didn't mention Sarc at all, was acceptable.

and this

Yeah, but...that wasn't the entirety of his post.

are all examples of reading for context very carefully. Something scum is much less adept at doing, particularly early D1. (note to scumbags: you only get half credit for carefully reading context from this point forward)

Also, this:

I'll unvote, and I might or might not replace the vote after a good night's rest--that whole "I'll be gone for a week" deal makes it feel less important.

is town attitude that's tough to fake. Bravo if you're scum, Ether, cause you're sounding a lot like chilled-out town.

---

[MrBuddyLee]

The obvious first comment about chamber is that he's 10x as verbose as usual. Absolutely no hay should be made of this, and I will strongly FOS the next person to make said hay. The reasons should be obvious.

chamber draws fine distinctions between Patrick and PJ. I don't like that he thinks I "attempted to make something appear more concrete than it is" but didn't vote me for that.. because deception = scumminess. But he unvoted at the time, almost implying that he found bluesoul unattackable after calling me out, but didn't want to vote me for some reason. He does allow that I might be overzealous town. If that's a genuine explanation for his failure to vote me (knowing also that I had a small wagon he didn't want to be on) that is a modestly protown act.

Consistent with his concern about the issue, chamber presses me for further info on bluesoul 18 hours later. He still doesn't want to vote for me.

The next day, he votes bluesoul, commenting that bluesoul and I finding each other townish seems odd. Would both town and scum behave as chamber does here? Not sure.. bluesoul was the first one to find the other (MBL) townish, MBL followed by finding bluesoul townish, and chamber sees the initial act as scummier than MBL's reevaluation of bluesoul.

Next, chamber accuses Sarc of "MASSIVELY" misrepresenting bluesoul. Doesn't vote Sarc, leaves his vote on bluesoul. Acknowledges that he's voting bluesoul but sees a few specific bluesoul actions Sarc saw as scummy.. as "careless" and townish.

Speculation on why Sarc is acting like this re: bluesoul.. is Sarc scum bs town, or both scum? Doesn't seem to allow for both town.

If you are both town I don't see you having made the rhetorical mark as you did, and more importantly when you saw it attract attention playing it off as having been a serious question is even more telling to me... Interestingly enough this would seem to suggest that your scum regardless of bluesouls alignment in my opinion. But its all dependent on that remark, that seems so unnatural to me as town. I need more time to think.

followed by:

^reason why I shouldn't do more then vote in thread^

VERY nice touch if chamber is scum. Doubting he is at this point, or else he's exquisitely ballsy scum.

---

The hallmark of OGML's play is paranoia or feigned paranoia. He's awfully concerned about MBL finding him slightly townish. STFU already.. if you're town and I'm scum I'm not going to be so blatant as to kiss your fanny on page two or whatever. The question is, is your repeated paranoia genuine...

I really don't like this:

Sarc, are you trying to pretend there's a connection between you and bluesoul?

because it implies that OGML knows Sarc is scum and bluesoul is town. Would OGML really give away the alignments of (count 'em) THREE players in one one-sentence post? In an invitational? Just LOL.. I sure hope not for your sake, ace. And if you DIDN'T, and you're town, then please be more careful with your wording in the future. I think I've remarked on this once already, but it bears repeating. You were attackable in the last game (me scum, you town) for your sloppy posts, so yeah, watch it.

This was fantastic:

To make this post seem more weighty I will now use arbitrary percentages. I am bad at math.

This theory is 70% gut, 20% something that just popped out to me while reading what I'd missed and rereading some earlier material, and 10% just plain awesome.

until you added:

(The percentage thing is a joke.)

Has left his initial appropriate vote on Sarc the entire game, doped himself up on Vicodin, and played XBox for a week with his toe propped up on the couch. Slight town read here, but not so much anymore, and not much to go on. Could be scum paralyzed with fear.

note: not proofreading--flight leaves in a moment

---

[MrBuddyLee]

I don't like this from Patrick:

Elvis gives me mildly bad vibes, not sure why.

considering that e_k had only posted six sentences at that point.. should be relatively easy to pin down what you don't like.

Patrick is DEFINITELY stretching in an attempt to cause conflict and communication, and I doubt he'd play that loose as scum on D1 but I need to read up and see if he has in the past.

Later, e_k calls Patrick out for voting her.. his response:

Not in itself, you just seem to be on the sidelines a fair bit.

A little unusual.. this is 24 hours after Patrick said e_k gave him bad vibes.

His clarification a day later:

You haven't done much scumhunting.

Then this, which seems a bit manufactured:

After MBL's first analysis post, Ether asked you to comment on it. You've also not commented on bluesoul's wagon/alignment, which seems like a notable event in the game. Chamber's accusation against me, the suggestion of a bluesoul/Sarcastro link and the suggestion that Ether voted bluesoul whilst ignoring others who did the same as him all spring to mind as possible things to talk about. Any of those seem more relevant than what you highlighted.

Attacking people for not piping up on particular issues is not entirely logical. I see the wider point that e_k is going after a seemingly lesser issue, but.. still feels weird.

Says DGB's vote for bluesoul looks overhyped and fake, but hasn't voted or FOSed DGB. This implies that his feelings on e_k are as curiously strong as an Altoid.

This is REALLY weird:

Not much I can point to unfortunately, just the way I'm leaning at this stage. I'd like her to rejoin the game in a timely manner when she gets back from vacation, so I can hopefully decide whether I'm right about this. It's never failed me before, but I'd hate to be careless.

Is this over the top or for real, Patrick? What exactly has never failed you before?

For someone who found it scummy how I was explaining my thought processes, you're doing it far more than is usual for you. I like the increased participation and hope it continues, but I'm curious as to why you're doing it, since I know you generally like to keep thoughts to yourself.

Did you realize this might deter posting? Do you realize that would be a scum play?

Patrick is noting good details, but I would absolutely expect Patrick to do so as scum. The question is--will Patrick's details help him find scum, or are they intended to make him look good?

Patrick on his use of the word "parroting":

*Shrug* I used it to say that you just agreed with him and copied the vote, as that's what I understand it to mean. Definitely no spin intended.

It's pretty clear to me that parrotting is intended to convey mimickry without thought. Your explanation here stretches credulity, no offense intended.

I agree with Patrick's suspicions somewhat. I was expecting to get a much cleaner read off him, but he seems a bit on his heels and possibly a tad nervous. I wouldn't lynch him today. I think he will be a rich reservoir of alignment info in the days to come.

---

I'm fine with DGB's play up until this:

I'm not sure how likely it would be for two scums to both go after a townie, one after the other. Thus I will refrain from voting either for now.

DGB missed an opportunity to pull her vote off chamber and onto PJ or e_k. Weak indication that if DGB is scum, chamber is town.

DGB posting without proofreading. Fearless. Does she do this as scum? Doubt it.

Her post voting bluesoul is bothersome. Says his posts can be helpful but also use craplogic. Does one trump the other when used to pin alignments?

Once again you are misrepresenting people.

Who else was bluesoul representing besides you?

MBL FOSes bluesoul, DGB asks why. She seems to really want help placing the focus on bluesoul. Her next 9 or so posts involve bluesoul.

Says she wants help from MBL telling fake PJ scumhunting from true PJ scumhunting. I'm thinking this is intended to be humorous, so I won't overplay it, but I don't think she really thinks I'm scum after I read that post. She could be town though with a read on me, what's the story, lady?

Then poking at Sarc and bluesoul. Nothing special there.

Tough read. As always.

[MrBuddyLee]

Snip, snip. Ah, I thought you meant your gut's never failed you before, not specifically your gut on Ether. That doesn't strain believability.

And I agree--e_k agreeing so readily about PJ's observation about DGB "buttering up three players" looked fishy. But I also think you should have stood pat on calling it parroting, so it was odd to see you tap dance around it when there was no retraction/clarification necessary.

What I found unusual about your early e_k interaction is that you couldn't qualify your gut, then suddenly you could.

I also thought you WERE attacking e_k for being on the sideline and not commenting on relevant issues. Why would you not call that an attack? A press on a player you believe to be scum based on oddities in their interactions?

[MrBuddyLee]

2.)

MBL, when you are doing your "reads" on people are you isolating the posts, or reading them as they occur during the game? [Or have you done a mix of the two?] Which method is more common for you?

What makes me ask is that you criticize the post where Patrick list things Elvis has not commented on, but do not seem to realize that this came directly after Elvis asks "what would you like me to comment on?" in Post 88.

Right now I'm reading in isolation to keep people's actions fresh when looking for trends in each of their play. When I've narrowed down suspects I'll read the thread start to finish with a sharp focus on those few suspects' play. Interesting question from you, but not one I can really see as giving you info on my alignment.

3.)

MBL, both Ether and Elias essentially said "I'll be gone for the next week, so I will not vote anybody until I get back". Whether Ether said so or not, the action of unvoting (what Ether did) implies "in case my vote affects the game while I am gone". However, in Ether's case you claim that makes her seem town, and in Elias' case it makes him seem like scum. Could you explain how you differentiate these two actions side-by-side?

I want to have a better grasp on the game before I make any decisions I could regret when I return to the game.

In general, I don't feel great about my reads at this point. I'll unvote, and I might or might not replace the vote after a good night's rest--that whole "I'll be gone for a week" deal makes it feel less important.

Subtle difference in tone, and as always, I admit I could be wrong on those kinds of reads. Ether's feels more carefree, Elias's more forced. "regret" is an odd term to use--who is more likely to actually regret an early D1 vote that results in an unexpected lynch? I'd say scum. This is a much better pickup from you, PJ, +5% to your odds of not being dirty rotten scum.

Happy Birthday, Patrick!

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not being deceitful, I'm just reading and dumping data. If you read my play as town across many games, you'll see that I look for little details that might indicate insincerity and list them out. I'm a vibe player more than a procedural player. Typically, the better the player, the more likely my vibe reads will nail them as scum. I have trouble picking out the alignment of goofy players.

And yes, I have a few more players to go. That last burst of activity came from an airport, and my return trip is tomorrow morning.

[MrBuddyLee]

I will try to keep up with the game on weekends and whenever else I might get a chance to.

Please show some respect for the other players in this game. Play hard or request replacement.

vote: Elias, FOS: IH

[MrBuddyLee]

My ass we deserve to lose. Find us the scum and explain why they're the scum, and you won't get lynched.

[MrBuddyLee]

There isn't a single thing I said that people haven't jumped on as being scummy, from my second post onward. You want me to "find you scum" or "get lynched." Like any of you have given me one inch of wiggle room to hunt scum. And having a role where a good strategy is not to draw mega-attention to oneself.

here's my goodbye kiss to you.

unvote, vote: MrBuddyLee

- here's your scum on a silver platter. Maybe I don't want YOU to win after all, scumbag. DIE SCUM DIE.

Assuming that the reason you're bitching is because you are town who thinks the scum are jumping on you for being scummy, then why are you voting for the person who hasn't really found you scummy?

I still don't particularly think you're scum.. because if you are and you get lynched right now, you've made me look significantly clear with your unsupported attacks on me. Plus, there's something slightly insidious about the attacks on you thus far. However, your behavior merits a closer look right now. You're not even that much on the ropes and you're kind of freaking out. Do you often do that as town?

[MrBuddyLee]

I have a problem with the timeline of your suspicions lining up against the evidence.

MBL, while reading your case on Patrick, I was exclaiming, in my head, "brilliant!" "OMG!" "I could never catch so many tells in a million years! What a stellar string!"

"I'm totally voting Patrick now!"

Then YOU don't vote Patrick.

Erm, why not?

the only player that I find scummy is bluesoul. And even him, only borderline scummy. Everyone is looking pretty townie right now.

So you found me pretty townie on Sunday morning... but then change your story the next afternoon:

MBL makes a case against you, does not vote you, I found THAT to be scummy. That didn't jump at you as being scummy??? And then you react by claiming this was not a case against you at all. I don't know if you're townies caught in your own pointless verbiage, or if you're scumbags trying to set up false trails for later confusion.

vote: mrbuddylee scum on a silver platter

I'm not going to focus on you exclusively, DGB, but this is something that needs to be answered. If you are truly town, why have you suddenly reached the erroneous conclusion that I am extremely likely scum after finding me townish on Sunday? I made one post on Sunday or Monday where I said that if your words read like scumhunting, you won't get lynched. Is that really what you claim set your "scumdar" off about me?

I'm voting Elias because I refuse to let this day end while we have no alignment info on him(his soon-to-be replacement actually) or IH. If anyone thinks this day is best served by a quick lynch of DGB right now, they're not town or they're not good at mafia. Even if a cop has a guilty on her, this day is best served by drawing a more complete relational web.

[MrBuddyLee]

I don't like this, which I actually just noticed for the first time:

Despite my attempts to find this game intriguing, I just can't muster up genuine interest in this game.

I know I'm going to be replaced in a couple weeks anyways due to law school

, so really all I've been doing is trying to ask questions so that (1) Day One has more potential to become increasingly informative as the game goes on (since

I generally think lynching scum D1 is unlikely anyways

, so you might as well look to the future), and (2) to make it look like I am more interested in the game than I really am.

Particularly considering PJ's play feels like a ball team trying to run out the clock without making a mistake that costs them the game.

Neil, if you're town, I'd think you'd be fired up about the challenge of catching at least one scum in an invitational game! Can you point to a good number of games where you've had this defeatist D1 attitude as town? Honestly, I don't see any fire in the belly from you, and it leads me to believe you are likely scum filling a seat and worried about blowing the game for your team. I know you are nervous as hell as scum, and this style of play you're exhibiting better fits "PJ as temporary scum" than it does "PJ as temporary town". I'd like to see more thorough play from you--if you are town, you are digging us a bit of a hole with your halfhearted (albeit volumnious) approach to this game.

MBL, both Ether and Elias essentially said "I'll be gone for the next week, so I will not vote anybody until I get back". Could you explain how you differentiate these two actions side-by-side?

Note:

Go ahead and disregard the fact that Elias claimed to have only read up to Page 5, and instead assume he

could

have made the most possible informed vote at the time

(this way both Elias and Ether would be "up to date" when they made their respective posts).

Why did you ask me to disregard Elias's limited game knowledge at the time of his no-vote? Obviously if I pretend Elias read the whole game and then failed to vote, I'd give a much more scathing criticism. Why would you want me to distort reality and my opinion of said reality in order to get me on the record about a version of events that never happened?

For the record, PJ's post about e_k among others being "middle of the road" jumped out at me as the kind of fence-sitting, conservative, scummy play I'm talking about.

[MrBuddyLee]

8.) You’re required to post regularly. I prod after 3 days of inactivity and replace after 2 days of no response to the prod. This rule is flexible if you PM me in advance.

Seriously, guys, Elias hasn't posted for 11 days, and isn't being replaced. This clearly means lurking is his win strategy and that's why he's not being replaced. If he's town, he's disgracing this invitational with his behavior and he should bow out.

IH and OGML have expressed remorse recently for their slackness and both expressed intent to post. We can judge their sincerity at that time.

Pile a few votes on Elias posthaste, please.

[MrBuddyLee]

DGB, the whole "giving up" act is lame. Who exactly are you talking to? I'm still interested in exploring all options, IH OGML and Elias are away. And only a few people are on your wagon. Your whole quitter thing seems insincere considering I don't know who you're accusing of failing this town right now.

So please be more specific about your displeasures. And if you're a power role, giving up early is extra lame.

[MrBuddyLee]

I think as one of the bad lurkers I'm probably a good person to be hammering a possible supersaint anyway.

What?

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, it's starting to really annoy me how you keep trying to connect me to PJ. Not only is there no connection there, but I don't think that you could honestly feel like you see one.

"Annoy"? I would think that if Patrick was disingenuously trying to connect you to someone, you'd think he was scum rather than be annoyed with him.

unvote, vote: e_k

[MrBuddyLee]

e_k is weird. Not certain if this is a style thing that rubs me weird or if she's actually scum. It almost seems too obvious.

elvis: "i like chamber", nothing on elias or IH
barely anything on OGML
she doesn't have a problem with PJ but doesnt want to be tied to him
wanted patrick to explain something, wants to be seen not liking patrick
calls ether underhanded
wants to be seen as willing to hammer DGB
defends sarcastro, otherwise ignores him--possible scumpartner, could just be kissing up to town?
asked bluesoul his opinion of me, said something bluesoul did was "weird"
smells something amiss in MBL's behavior, etc etc
trying to prove herself to ether/gain approval

95% certainty Ether and e_k aren't partners--don't think she'd seek approval from a scumpartner
95% certainty e_k and PJ aren't partners--don't think she'd draw so much attention to her displeasure being connected to a scumpartner
85% certainty e_k and chamber aren't partners--gut.

Not sure if her Patrick and DGB weirdness indicates scumpartners distancing or just odd squabbles with town. Need to read those interactions more carefully.

[MrBuddyLee]

OGML's post was half a week ago, promising content for Sunday, and he doesn't have IH's horrible track record. Again, what caused you to forget him in 299?

OGML had made about 20 game-relevant observations before he caught his big toe in a sausage grinder. I don't see him as "off the record" today like I do Elias and IH. Why did you make hay about this and say I "forgot" OGML in a post about noncontributors when he's actually contributed 10x as much as the two primary culprits?

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL's guesses:

.5 of {Ether-town
chamber-town
bluesoul-town
IH-town
Elias-town
OGML-town } = scum

1.5 of {Patrick, DGB, Sarc, PJ} = scum

e_k-scum

I need to look into individual relationships carefully. e_k+PJ is not likely, but PJ still feels a little scummy. e_k+Patrick+DGB or e_k+Sarc+DGB or e_k+Patrick+Sarc wouldn't shock me.

I'll be somewhat surprised if Ether or chamber is scum. I'll be minimally surprised if bluesoul or OGML is scum. I'm wondering if Elias and IH would be posting more (feeling guilty about letting down their scumpartners) if they're scum. It's entirely possible that they're jerkwad lazy irresponsible lurking scum. I thought IH was cooler than that, but then again he should be cooler as town as well.

I realize I have multiple theories on some players (Elias and PJ, for example). Maybe they'll spur someone who knows these players better to comment on which theory seems to fit better.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, I found that post by e_k disassociative from you, but more recently her attack on you seems forced, and one possibility that would explain that is that it's really sloppy distancing. Why on earth would she hop off DGB, who she's willing to hammer, so she could register a vote on you for a half-assed reason?

[MrBuddyLee]

(For the record, I know IH is perfectly capable of lurking like this as scum.)

This is exactly what I was looking for. Thanks.

[MrBuddyLee]

The big two townish for me are Ether and chamber, and I believe I've explained both. The big scum is e_k, who I've also explained.

IH is off the townish list, and I still don't know if Elias is so lazy as to lurk his way through a scum victory. (He's proud of his 10-1 record as scum, but who would brag about that if all they do is outlurk?)

OGML, something about his posts seemed to indicate curiosity and genuine uncertainty. I could be wrong.

Patrick, he's being reasonable, creating a lot of opinions, but the back-and-forth between him and e_k has felt off from time to time. So mixed signals there.

PJ, he's unmotivated. Not sure why he volunteered to "sit in until law school" if he didn't plan to nail a few scum. Things aren't adding up for me with him, and I call shenanigans.

Sarc, I don't have a good meta on him. A few things he said struck my gut as townish, but he also doesn't seem too interested in moving the game forward at this point.

DGB is all over the map and seems to want to be hammered. Or is employing lame reverse psychology as scum. Suspicions that don't seem to match up with reality or be consistent. I see a DGB lynch as about as much of a coinflip as lynching Elias or IH right now. Except that her wagon's come together so easily, either her scumpartners are thrilled to bus or scum are slavering over the easy mislynch she's handing them.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, I notice how you are derailing her bandwagon.

Odds of DGB+e_k scumpair rising rapidly.

[MrBuddyLee]

No, of course not. I'm uneasy about the way it's built.. whole thing lacks due diligence. I agree DGB's not making it easy on town.. unless she's scum and then I'll look like a dirty rotten scoundrel tomorrow.

Which is why I'm thinking your fangs are showing.

[MrBuddyLee]

Dear Elias,

It's been 18 days since your last post. I'm sure summer camp is a blast, but that's ridiculous. Why the fuck did you agree to play an invitational this summer? I hope you get poison ivy on your balls.

Sincerely,
MBL

[MrBuddyLee]

Dear IH,

It's also been 18 days since you posted anything remotely useful. At least you seem remorseful, but that's not indicative of alignment, only of intent to post. And we need to know your alignment, pronto.

I just reread your play in Face to Face. We killed you night one because you played very well day one. You didn't nail scum, but you were looking in the right directions, making massive analysis posts. You seemed to actually enjoy reading through people's posts, looking for subtleties.

Whether you are town or scum, please endeavor to summon up that same enthusiasm for this game. This player lineup is about as good as that game's was.

If you are scum, and make long analytical posts like you did in F2F, I

will

catch you. Double dare ya.

Sincerely,
MBL

[MrBuddyLee]

DGB, let me explain why you're getting your ass run up this game. It's not some metagame-related conspiracy.

1. Unbelievability:

Bluesouls seems to jump from extremes of helpfulness to historical records of kraplogick.

If you really thought bluesoul was being "extremely helpful" then wouldn't you make more of an effort to see his "kraplogick" as innocent mistakes on his part or differences you could work through with him?

That whole bit about percentages was a total red herring argument. There is no way this argument was about an actual scumtell, it seemed very contrived and planned. Bus'ing is definitely a possibility here.

You really think two scum would force a disjointed, annoying, pain-in-the-ass argument like that on day one? Even as you admit it would limit their claiming options?

2. Hyperbole:

So far you are guilty only of misrepresentation.

3. Wording questions to make it look like you're pressing for votes:

Then YOU don't vote Patrick.

Erm, why not?

Explain how your noticing this about bluesoul doesn't lead to a vote for bluesoul?

4. Inconsistency:

the only player that I find scummy is bluesoul. And even him, only borderline scummy. Everyone is looking pretty townie right now.

First, PJ put a KRAP vote on me. Then elvis followed suit.

unvote, vote: MrBuddyLee - here's your scum on a silver platter.

5. Veiled threats:

Who has considered the possibility that I have a power role?

6. Generalities:

If your vote is on someone and you haven't built a convincing case, you're suspect.

You'll find a few such on my present wagon.

(Who are the scum on your wagon, and if you think the scum are all over your wagon, why aren't you voting them instead of me, the person who doesn't necessarily think you're scum?)

7. Giving up:

(picture of a hammer)


I hope you guys have a more productive day tomorrow.

Lame. Are you a mouse or a mafia player? Or inartful scum trying to play on our guilt, either irritated at your scumpartners for busing you or satisfied that they've distanced themselves from you well today?


BUT!

You've found a load of contradictions in people's play and asked relatively insightful questions that lead me to believe you might be looking for truth.

MBL, what's the diff between indignant town and indignant scum?

Explain how your noticing this about bluesoul: "How do you know whether or not the scum were allowed to talk before the game started?" doesn't lead to a vote for bluesoul?

So you're playing sloppily but not necessarily scummily. But you refuse to do the legwork now, so you shouldn't be shocked that people see you as disposable:

Or are the rest of you continue to totally dismiss everything I post as scummy, so why am I wasting my time? I'm starting to thing you just want to get rid of me because I'm DrippingGoofball and no one cares about actually making an effort to truly assess my alignment.

Horseshit. I'm sitting here trying to engage you in discussion and you're taking your box of Kleenex and going home. Let's find some scum--quit being such a crybaby!

[MrBuddyLee]

choo choo: petroleumjelly/pablito, bluesoul, Sarcastro, elvis_knits, Ether, Patrick

Ether, you say that DGB's wagon gives you a bad feeling. But you're still voting for her--that smells not so fresh. Do you really think we're at the emergency "must lynch now" point? And would you rather lynch a townie than no-lynch? Cause I rarely would.

If she's town, which of the people on her wagon are scummy opportunists and which are wrong for the right reasons?

I think everyone should weigh in on this, and assume that DGB will not claim and will get lynched for it. How do we feel about various people tomorrow if she comes up town? Comes up scum?

ps: note, none of our lurkers have managed to sleaze their way over on to DGB. odd.. you'd think that if she's scum, a scum amongst the lurkers would have found a reason to make the safe, lazy play and get on her wagon by now.

[MrBuddyLee]

My comment demonstrates the strangeness of MBL's level of certainty that I am scum, but only contemplates that I am mafia. Why doesn't he contemplate that I am an SK? Why is he so absorbed in finding my scum buddies before he actually finds out if I am scum or not?

This is bizarre. First off, it's unlikely that there would be a serial killer in an invitational game.. the net result would be a game of about half the length on average, most likely over in 3 days and extremely swingy. A terrible way to test the skill of the best vs. the best. More curiously, e_k claims to find my search for scum pairings unusual.. isn't that just about the best way to find scum in any game?

e_k, do you often find players scummy for pursuing possible scumpairings on D1? Is testing scumpairings not a tool in your personal scumhunting toolbox?

e_k, you sound pissed that I'm on to you, enough so that you joined the "Anti-MBL Cult" in the General forum yesterday.

I take that as a high compliment, and I don't think you'd be ticked enough to do that if you were town right now. I think I have you dead to rights and you really want DGB dead quickly (perhaps to make you look better?) so you can kill me off tonight before I ring you up.

Also, I find it weird that MBL seems to be giving DGB every possible avenue to make herself seem less scummy. What has convinced him that she is town and deserves this type of babying?

I'm not convinced that she's town by any means. But I don't think her posts have been thoroughly examined, nor the quality of the wagon on her. I'd like her to post a serious analysis of all other players, cause right now she's latched on to the mistaken idea that I'm scum and she "thinks everyone else is townish". Hardly solid information to go on tomorrow if DGB is our lynch of choice.

That's what I'm trying to do right now, and I think more people should do the same. You seem a little too confident about DGB's alignment right now..

I'm fascinated to hear someone argue that the optimal play as DGB's scumpartner is to bail her out over and over again on her way down in flames. Take a look at what LoudmouthLee did in Himalayan, a game I replaced him in as scum a few years back:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3140

He didn't just jump on a DGB bus.. he pissed her off beyond belief by starting it from out of nowhere. (They were scumpartners.) It's the one game I can recall off the top of my head, but I have a feeling there are many where this phenomenon occurs:

How on Earth did I end up being lynched?

Easy! When I post, whether I am town, doctor, cop, scum... I just have to post and I get lynched. No one ever thinks I'm Town, haha! I'm a free lynch for the scum if I am Town. But this time I WAS scum...

So I tried to use the opportunity to throw as many names in my posts as possible to create mayhem while posting my way to being lynched.

note to DGB's and e_k's scumpartner: are you prepared to win this game on your own?

[MrBuddyLee]

If she's a supersaint, she should stop playing jester and claim; those are stronger later.

I've never been in a game with a supersaint, but apparently:

However, when a majority of votes is reached on you, the last person to vote for you, or the commonly called person who places the "Hammer vote", or the one who votes to make a majority, will also die along with you.

Since scum are the only people who would know whether or not the claim is true, they'd be the only people to know they should avoid hammering her. So once a supersaint claims, they're going to get nightkilled before scum would ever be forced to hammer them to end a day.

So why would you encourage DGB to claim supersaint, Ether?

[MrBuddyLee]

Because lynching someone else and letting her draw a nightkill as supersaint would be better than lynching her as supersaint today?

Duh, but.. Shouldn't she be the one to figure that out? And wouldn't we learn more about her alignment and possible role by letting HER follow that thought process? The net result here is that it comes across like you just blabbed for the sake of blabbing--to look/sound good. But you didn't think it through and it makes you look bad regardless of alignment, Ether.

[MrBuddyLee]

*standing ovation*

[MrBuddyLee]

Elvis, if you're not looking for relationships between players, please explain what signs you ARE looking for in order to spot scum in this game.

[MrBuddyLee]

bluesoul, you've seemed to support a DGB lynch for weeks now, and in fact really wanted to hurry it along. Can you please list your specific reasons for wanting her dead instead of elvis or Ether?

[MrBuddyLee]

You're grasping at straws, elvis. Perhaps because I'm the driving force behind your wagon and you really need to discredit me before anyone else hops on?

Here's my question after "snipping" Patrick:

Is this over the top or for real, Patrick? What exactly has never failed you before?

I wanted a clarification from him--he was talking about his gut never failing him, which sounded like a pretty big stretch to me. He replied that it was specifically his gut on Ether, not his gut in general, that had never failed him.

So how exactly is asking that kind of question a brilliant scum strategy on my part? Oh gee, I almost had him there...

[MrBuddyLee]

Elvis, DGB said I was townie town town because I am. And she smells it. (Or knows it.) Unfortunately, when I'm scum, I'm also something similar but not identical to townie town town. And that's what she was trying to get across--not that she thinks I'm town, but that she thinks I'd appear town regardless.

She's actually given a ton of opinions on people in the past week. None of which you've commented on. Instead, you attack people for not finding her inherently scummy:

It just seems like you are assuming she is town, and trying to bring her round to being a more helpful townie. Which is an odd stance to take on someone I deem scummy.

That's a sketch post by you.. but I can't tell whether it feels sketch cause you know DGB is town and are pissed that I'm leaning that way, or if you know DGB is scum and you're setting me up to look bad if she gets lynched, or if you're actually an innocent who finds DGB irrevocably scummy and you can't fathom that anyone else could be hoodwinked and trying to make her into a better townie.

For the record, I strongly believe you're scum, and I'm still up in the air about your relationship to DGB. You've avoided analyzing her recent posts, which is something that would help us all figure you out.

[MrBuddyLee]

Elias camp is over in 2.5 weeks. While I am really grumbling and upset by the situation, I think the best plan, as a mod, is to wait for him to be finished with it, provided he promises to step up his production on the weekends.

I don't think wasting one of our replacements on a slot which will become fully productive in 2.5 weeks is in our best interests

I think Elias and IH deserve massive wedgies. I nominate DGB to administer.

[MrBuddyLee]

bluesoul's also promised to tell us why he suspects DGB, beyond "she's acted scummy all game".

[MrBuddyLee]

For starters:

Players Sarc hasn't commented on alignment-wise

at all

:
Ether, Patrick, elvis(!!!), elias, IH, PJ, pablito, chamber

Players Sarc's listed as somewhat scummy:
MBL, bluesoul (not really), OGML

Players Sarc's listed as obvscum but not given any reasons

at all

:
DGB

The schtick is old. Or you're really lazy scum. Fortunately for you there are plenty of lazy players to conceal yourself amongst. (IH, OGML, Ether, elias).

Sarc, please give us your top and bottom three, with some reasoning. Also, what did you think of DGB's 7 suspicions posts?

Til then, this day's not ready to go anywhere. Thanks.

[MrBuddyLee]

Understood. Guess it's the same across the board--PJ, OGML, IH, elias, Sarc. This is my only game and I've only been in one game at a time all this year, so I don't feel the summer burnout that a lot of you feel.

Hopefully things will pick up, and we won't be stuck lynching only the people who talk.

[MrBuddyLee]

Forcing people to talk about other people gives you insight into their relationship. For example, if you talk awkwardly about you and DGB, it's very possible that you're a scumpair.

So you don't have to be 100% accurate when discussing scumpairs, you just have to prod people into talking about connections.

[MrBuddyLee]

No, but I usually can catch scum on D3 based on something they said D1 about their partners and nonpartners. I'm not sure why you'd be so opposed to weaving such a relational web.

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, so IH/CDB is scum. Good to know. Welcome to the game!

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, so IH/CDB is scum. Good to know. Welcome to the game!

huh?

Mod replaces scum before town. Just a hunch.

[MrBuddyLee]

OK fine, I take back what I said on page 15 about poison ivy on your balls.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey, it's all good so long as you're here to play now. Next time, just don't promise to post on weekends if you can't..

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm waiting on elias's final conclusions before passing judgment. I agree that his recent analyses could use more depth, which might be indicative of lazy scum trying not to make a mistake.

[MrBuddyLee]

Having been scum with the Delibird in the past, I have to say his first post shows either a newfound maturity as scum or a lack of guile. Who was he previously, IH? So yeah, I guess IH was lazy town?

I'm leaving for Burning Man for ten days starting Friday, and the chances are pretty good I get nightkilled if elvis gets lynched as scum. I don't see you guys holding off much longer on offing her--she looks significantly scummier than the alternatives. There's a slim chance I don't get on at all before Friday. Here's my legacy if I'm fitted with cement shoes:

DGB might have been getting bused by elvis--I'll try to read their interactions more thoroughly before I leave to come up with a definitive opinion there. The DGB wagon swung rapidly once she posted content--gotta think about whether the texture of that action implies scum saving their own, scum burying each other, or town just plain doing the right thing.

PJ's explanation is believable--he's not into mafia right now. I won't read too much into his relative disinterest. pablito looks decent upon his entry into the game.

Beware Patrick. I'm sure he'd make magnificent scum. What irked me about him when I was scum and he was town is that he exuded towniness and I couldn't sucker anyone into finding him the least bit suspicious. His posts had a golden quality about them. Not quite as much so this game. Not terrible, but not squeaky clean.

elias hasn't added much beyond the obvious. Demand content.

chamber looks good. I think he'd be more evasive if he were scum.

Ether's approach to the DGB wagon was tres sketchy. I suggest she be stripped of her pro-town points and forced to start fresh. If you're town, Ether, nail something down.

bluesoul, convoluted in a way I don't know if he would be as scum. I think he might be town who plays a little weird. Don't just nail him on weird things he says--look beyond that for bad intent.

Sarc? No clue. Could be scum considering he shows no interest in anyone but DGB. Unless he's somehow proven right about that, nail him down tomorrow.

[MrBuddyLee]

If Patrick is scum, make him hand you his partners. I don't think he could scumhunt deceptively and look sincere. So force him to pick out the scum with sincere arguments, and see if the arguments (if not the ultimate alignments of his targets) pass the smell test.

[MrBuddyLee]

What I was trying to say is that though I think you'd be great scum, you wouldn't seem AS sincere in your scumhunting unless you were pointing out the real flaws in your scumpartners.

So basically I'm saying it wouldn't be terrible to follow Patrick unless his arguments sound sketchy.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm back!

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote

Tons more info to go on since I left. Thanks for keeping the D1 going--I LOVE long days. So much tasty info to work with, and even better: replacements! One player can often screw with my radar when it comes to their town/scum tone, but I think I'll be able to spot scummy words and unbelievable content when TWO players are spewing words from the same seat.

For the record, I am feeling pretty spaced out at the moment and will probably say some weird shit over the next few days. I just spent a dehydrated two weeks in the desert and am still sweating out strange substances. Asphalt, electricity and houses with roofs all look really strange to me right now. Just don't expect me to sound quite normal for the next little bit.

Quick summary after I skimmed the past two weeks of posts:

* Patrick matched my thoughts nearly exactly, from what I recall
* Ether isn't moving the game forward but wants to appear involved
* elias is not meeting his responsibilities, which is lame
* Huck went from not finding elvis scummy to finding elvis his #1 suspect in like 24 hrs, this needs to be looked into, especially considering he now finds her lynch inevitable
* DGB and elvis interaction odd... elvis "blaming" me for DGB wagon dissappearance feels stinky--possible scumpair?
* elvis really needs another suspect besides townMBL if I am ever to see her as even remotely townish
* Minvitational 8 was a travesty, and whoever decided to put a serial killer in a "best vs. best" game should be shot. The game lasted 4 days due to double nightkills, and in games that short, result is determined by randomness as much as skill. I sincerely hope we don't have an SK in this game, because I would rather find out who can PLAY.
* bird, meh
* CDB doesn't look ANYTHING like he did when we were scum together. He's either just matured a ton or he's town.

I'll read again, and somewhat more critically after rehydrating. Thanks to all, even the mod who I'm not allowed to talk to, for allowing me to stay in the game despite a 10-day absence.

[MrBuddyLee]

I think what I'd like to see right now from everyone is the following:

* Who are your top three suspects in order, and why?
* If DGB is not in that top three, why?
* If elvis is not in that top three, why?
* Is there anyone who's skating to D2, and how can we get more info on them ASAP?

Mine may change, but off the top of my head:

top 3: elvis, ogml/huck, dgb, pablito/pj
elvis just feels WRONG. i was scum with her in one of my first games and I think she got lynched first. i need to read and see if she comes across ringingly town in games she's town. her top suspect and possibly only real suspect is me, town. not promising.
huck said a few things that rubbed me wrong, ogml just barely poked around but didn't really drive a scumhunting agenda, dgb almost more seems scummy due to elvis's actions towards her moreso than anythng dgb's done, and pablito seems to be somewhat indifferent to the finding of the perfect scum candidate. pj was very very un-pj, but i think i'll write that off as he sounded truly mafia-indifferent in general.

* elias is skating badly. i want more specifics from bird, bluesoul, and even chamber though i get good vibes off him (what if he dies tonight? need his opinions on record)

[MrBuddyLee]

Huck looks a little better upon isolated reread--he actually looks to be reasoning things out. But:

1) Huck, what about my play have you found "extremely scummy" this game?

2) What specifically have you found protown about chamber?

3) What has Ether contributed to the finding of scum/what makes you confident she's not scum pretending to be helpful?

4) How has pablito been "better than PJ"? What are your fave pabs insights thus far?

5) Can you qualify your bluesoul vibes?

6) DGB vs. elvis--town v. town, two scum distancing, or town v. scum genuine antagonists? Evidence?

[MrBuddyLee]

Get lost.

Just lynch me.

And here's my goodbye kiss to you.

unvote, vote: MrBuddyLee

- here's your scum on a silver platter. Maybe I don't want YOU to win after all, scumbag. DIE SCUM DIE.

What was this all about? Why did you feel so strongly I was scum at the time? You seem fairly convinced at present that I'm town.

[MrBuddyLee]

Name:

Final Fantasy VII Mafia

Flavour:

In the aftermath of a giant airship crash, the characters of Final Fantasy VII find themselves in smoke filled clearing. As everyone comes to grips with their surroundings, chaos ensues as each side attempts to destroy all opposition.

Players:

26

Experience:

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Mini_488
http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Mafia_74

Co-Mod:

Dead Rikimaru

*ahem*

(jack shit)

[MrBuddyLee]

I agree wholeheartedly that the following is extermely suspect:

I've compared the two scummier players out there, according to the town. Rest assured I will post analysis for other players, but I wanted to get these two out of the way first. To me its fairly clear that DGB is the scummier of the two and I'm fairly comfortable with my first vote of the game being vote: DGB.

The only elvis work elias did was to utilize DGB's words.

Let's say DGB is scum. The only reason to rely exclusively on DGB's words about elvis is if you think there's no chance they're scumpartners, and you have a strong vibe that they're oppositely aligned. And I don't think that's even remotely the case. Elias definitely owes us an independent analysis of elvis.

Many rereads are about to occur. This has been a fantastic day, with more information gleaned than in the other three minvitationals combined. Let's not sulk about the quantity of content--let's process it, nail down some relationships, and find a 90% likely scumbag.

vote: elias

Please do not speedlynch him.

[MrBuddyLee]

The reason I relied exclusively on DGB's words was essentially laziness. I figured that by evaluating what appeared to be the driving case behind Elvis's wagon, I could easily see the main tells and controversial posts she'd put up. A 'strong vibe that they're oppositely aligned" is far from the case. I was simply cutting corners, and for that I apologize. I'll have an independant PBP of Elvis tomorrow.

I've made about 15 posts on elvis's sketchiness. If you're interested in evaluating me and elvis, that'd be another good place to check. Unless, of course, you already know our alignments.

[MrBuddyLee]

bluesoul,

Who seems sketchy on the e_k wagon and who seems genuine?

[MrBuddyLee]

Huck,

You missed specifics on #2, 3 and 4, which is what I was getting at with my questions to you. Can you please find some specific examples that support your beliefs about chamber, pablito and Ether?

[MrBuddyLee]

Ether, I don't think elvis really finds me scummy. I'll probably end up on her today, but I think DGB and elias need to be poked at as ell in case one of them cracks.

Why don't you feel like a part of this game, and why is that my responsibility? Or was that a typo?

CDB, just do a read and make notes about what sounds funky. If the same player sounds funky several times then do a PBPA on them and see what else comes out. Don't try to get your head around the whole game at once at this point--it's too big to get started that way.

[MrBuddyLee]

Your posts about me seem more angry at me than suspicious of me. And you've flitted off me like a butterfly, leading me to believe there's no consistent scumvibe in your read but rather you're reacting defensively to my attacks on you.

[MrBuddyLee]

Elias, right now you sound like scum pissed that our reasons aren't yet good enough to justify lynching you.

[MrBuddyLee]

*shrug*
If you read any of my games, you'll find that I get angry on both sides of the game. Its really a null tell (for instance, read mini 495, 486 for town, newbie 499 for scum).

See, in my mind, a townie would say "I get angry as town." You keep pointing out how the scummy things you say could imply either.

If I had to call it right now I'd say Elias, DGB and Elvis are scum. I doubt I'm right about all three and some things about their interactions don't add up as a scumteam, so I'll be happy with 2/3 there.

If Ether is scum I'll be slightly surprised, same with chamber, CDB and Patrick.

bluesoul, pablito, wouldn't surprise me either way at this point. They're acting like bored town or scum who know they're not in danger.

Who are the last two players? They're laying so low I can't recall them after thirty seconds of thinking about the game's history.

edit: oh yeah, Huck and bird. Either could be scum without surprising me in the least. I think we're a little short on info from some people today. Establish your pro-town cred! Chop chop!

[MrBuddyLee]

Elias,

Do you think that every player in every game should pitch a fit, take their ball and go home to mommy when they're L-3?

Everyone else,

How would you compare and contrast the hissy fits thrown by DGB, elias and elvis when run up?

Personally, I don't see elias accusing anyone of being scummy for their votes on him, he's accusing us of being retarded. Implying the votes on him are retarded town rather than sinister scum...

Whereas DGB seemed to really think I was scum trying to ring her up. Wrong, but was her OMGUS reaction genuine?

[MrBuddyLee]

Elias, this is the extent to which you've spotted scumminess in the past month:

Though she(elvis)'s had some bad posts late game, she has defended some of the major points against her well and overall improved the quality of her posting. I find her fairly scummy, but less so than DGB. As to whether she is in my top 3, its hard to say as I've only fully analized two players as thoroughly as I should.

(Which sounds an awful lot like a scumbag walking the tightrope re: their mate)

DGB: Gives no explanation other than that she believes I'm buddies to elvis. Scummy as hell.

So you've found 1 1/2 people who are scummy. I think you've cleared bluesoul of significant suspicion. If you can't find more people who are scummy, it's likely that you are the third scumbag.

Do you have a list of three or four scumbags off the top of your head before you continue your PBPAs?

[MrBuddyLee]

I do find it a bit funny that MBL’s top three contains four people.

Top 3
Elvis, Bird111 (mostly from Sarcastro's play), and Pablito or maybe Elias.

LOL.

[MrBuddyLee]

Elias,

It sounds like you're saying that you suck at town because you don't know how to scumhunt, and you excel at scum because you are good at expressing faux-indignance.

1) Do you usually get lynched or NKed or endgamed as town?
2) Are you typically more of a lurker as scum or town?
3) Do you traditionally bus your partners aggressively as scum?
4) Are you busing any of your scumpartners in this game, or are they playing well enough that you don't have to?
5) Are you typically somewhat indifferent as town, or do you give it your all?

[MrBuddyLee]

I read a few recent CDB games and have now decided that my previous meta on him is useless. His game's come a long way, and he's capable scum. No read on him until I reread more carefully.

[MrBuddyLee]

busted

[MrBuddyLee]

This game's momentum is dying. We have a lot of information to work with today, but very little on a few people. I'm very much looking forward to seeing CTD in action.. when he's town he's damned good. *crosses fingers*

[MrBuddyLee]

CTD, you don't want me dead any time soon unless you're scum.

You found DGB suspect and bluesoul moreso. bluesoul's sort of suspected DGB for much of today and DGB suspected bluesoul for the duration of her time under heavy pressure. Considering these are quite possibly your top two suspects, do you get a read of scumteam distancing off them or a read of one of them setting the other up as a fall guy?

Also, what do you think of DGB's leap to ME of all people when she was about to be lynched?

Note that a week after voting me as "obvscum" DGB posted the following:

MBL is townie-town-town. Which he would be regardless of his alignment. He recently fooled me quite thoroughly in mith's latest game but I can't really find flaw in his play here either. He's going to drive me crazy all game that way.

Also, how about her leap to elvis once DGB was safe and the public consensus was elvis looked bad? Would you say DGB's use of elvis as the yardstick by which to measure all others looks more like scum hiding behind a screwed townie or scum plotting to vindicate themselves when their scumpartner comes up dirty? (Or genuine town screwiness?)

[MrBuddyLee]

CTD, do you think the wagon on elias has served any purpose? You seem to condemn a few people for being on it, or vice-versa.

Also, did elias seem to be scumhunting? Accurately? You don't comment at all on his suspicions and don't seem to intend to in the near future, which is bizarre.

How on earth have you managed to apply your meta of PJ to this game? Do you think that's reasonable and/or wise given the way he played and the comments he made about his level of enthusiasm?

Kudos for posting promptly, but I have to say I've been more impressed with your past work. This batch of cookies you've baked us tastes a little flat, though I'll cut you slack for the volume of chaff you sorted through and the late hours. But I definitely didn't get the town feel from you tonight that I got in the Large Open.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ether hasn't posted for two weeks. And I'm sure she's not the only one. Please have some empathy for the mod, people, and don't make him replace yet another slacker.

elvis, I'm just having fun with little statements like those. Clearly I don't expect that everyone will drop their pants and realize I'm town just cause I say so. But as town I'm really not worried about it either, because my protown playstyle is already shining through. And it's a little curious that CTD hasn't picked up on it yet, because he nailed my alignment in both of the last two games we played together and he was town in both.

I'm wondering now if CTD is scum prepared to profit if/when elvis gets mislynched as town. He cuts her way too much slack/doesn't really seem to have read her posts carefully, cause there's a lot wrong in her posts imo.

I get a fairly strong pro-town vibe from her, primarily from the way she defended herself against mostly unconvincing, yet inexplicably popular cases.

I think this demands details. Among other things, if elvis is town, we should be able to find scum by picking out the worse case or two strung together against her.

And no I am not condemning people for being on it, you have my causalities mixed up.

Yes, thus my "or vice-versa".

I am curious though: Do you think bluesouls stated reasons for voting Elias are justified enough for a lynch?

No, he's admitted that to some extent he's willing to settle for a quicker, possibly inaccurate lynch out of his personal impatience. I'd actually be more concerned if he was trying to cover that fact up. I DO think he should give us a broader analysis of the town at large instead of trying to get away with piecemeal. He has, to his credit, weighed in on elvis, albeit without many supporting details.

[MrBuddyLee]

You are curiously omitting the fact that I wavered a whole lot on you in one of the games you are citing.

Actually, I think you nailed the initial read and then on your road to replacement you got on my ass after the GF posted a wall-o-text against me. I assumed you were just paying less attention or something--my read on you didn't really change. More importantly, your suspicions in both games were nuanced, so I think I'll be able to read you just fine this game. It's tough to fake that kind of sincerity and earnestness. I got a VERY protown read off of you in 64.

And I'm wondering if

you

are scum prepared to profit if/when elvis gets mislynched as town, by painting my defense of her as anything other than an accurate read.

If elvis goes down as town, I'd be one of the first ones to get scrutinized. I sincerely believe she's likely scum, and will have much splaining to do if she gets bumped and comes up good guy. I see no way I'll "profit" should elvis come up town before I die. Odd attempt at turnabout by you, indicating a possible (albeit understandable for now) thinness of your comprehension of gamestate.

[MrBuddyLee]

And elvis, we're going to have to agree to disagree on the scumpair thing. I know of no better way to find scum than by asking one person to talk about another and then deciding whether or not they have inside info on that person's alignment.

In particular, if someone's "too sure" about someone else's scumminess, or clears them for slim reasons, scumpair is a distinct possibility. It's all in the tone though--are they being deceitful or lazy?

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrickx2, DGB, PJ, MBLx4, CDB, Huck

A list of the number of times elvis has called other people's cases on her "bullshit". Unfortunately for elvis, only 3 at most can be scum, so you're basically saying that at least three townies are intentionally trying to fling poo at you and make it stick? Why would they do that?

And worst of all, I'm town and you've accused me of making bullshit cases 4 times, so color me super unimpressed. In the case that you're town, you'll look really bad when I come up dead town, because you'll have to explain why you were accusing a townie of flinging bullshit at you.

I think scum are much more likely to try and disparage cases wantonly like that. I also think town would do a better job of explaining which cases are bullshit and which are at least somewhat legit. I'll read through and see if elvis has done that in the least, or if she's just trying to tear down and discredit instead of scumhunt.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm particularly interested to hear why you think scum would make a post like 406

I would also like to point out that we have fostered a very bad paranoid environment in this game where nobody can agree with another person without being accused of buddying, and nobody can attack another person without being accused of bussing.

OF COURSE, scum will sometimes buddy up to townies and they will sometimes buss on another. But I don't think it should be the primary or only way you look for scum on D1.

I will say that I was stirring the pot a little in the beginning of this game to get it going. I never said anything I didn't believe or purposely try to trap anyone. But I did say things in a way that I hoped would be a little inflamatory and generate discussion.

But most of the points against me are of the paranoid ass-backwards variety that I explained above.

AND I believe I have already responded to all of them in other places in the game. If you don't agree with my explanation, please respond to that instead of bringing up things I have already responded to.

CTD, elvis is trying to discourage the use of a very successful method of scumhunting, and she's doing it SPECIFICALLY because it's being used against her. (see bolded) I'd feel a lot more comfortable if she at least pointed out one other player she thought was being victimized by this terrible scumtactic. Another thing to look for in my reread of elvis. (And I doubt I'll find it.)

She also does in paragraph three what she's been recently pissy at me for: telling people she's been sincere. "I never said anything I didn't believe" is not a statement of any value according to elvis, because it's just brainwashing. Yet she uses it. That whole third paragraph is pretty defensive.

CTD, what do you think the purpose of elvis's italicized defensiveness above? What was she responding to, if anything, and why do you think it was protown for her to do so?

Really I'm surprised that elvis didn't rally more votes, I do think that the players attacking her are NOT bus'ing (and I see bus'ing everywhere). That would mean that, if she's scum, the buddies are steering clear of any nascent wagon, preferring to hop on mine, or to abstain. Hmmm. I'm beginning to think godfatheriffic here, a scummy player who appears not to be bus'ed, yet plays aggressive.

Possibly responding to DGB's accusation of aggression?

CTD, what do you think of DGB's no-busing hypothesis that leaves out the possibility elvis is town?

DGB, can you go into detail about what you thought/think of the elviswagon?

[MrBuddyLee]

I just scrolled up. All your questions to me seemed to be facetious:

"Your pro-town playstyle sucks, you look like scum, and couldn't you fake it anyway?"

I like the new indignant elvis a lot better than the p. 1-20 one, by the way. Other than the fact that you need to start finding scum. Three of your four suspicions have been totally OMGUS. (Patrick, MBL, CDB) and you went for DGB at the same time she was ringing you up, so it's also OMGUS even though you didn't use that as your stated reason.

If you're really indignant town, you ought to also track down the one or two scumbags who AREN'T on your case. Do you really think they're all voting and attacking elvis right now? Cause in my experience, they tend to spread out and play the field.

[MrBuddyLee]

And that scum is... CDB?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm not trying to defend myself, at least not that I can recall. That would waste time and focus better spent on, you know, pursuing actual scum? A bunch of other players have basically said, "MBL looks protown, but he probably would anyway," which is not really true. But their instincts are correct about my alignment.

I'm not holding you to a higher standard than anyone.. I want to know your opinions on all the things I asked. Who are the scum on your wagon? Who are the scum buttering you up if you're town and saying you're obviously a good guy? I don't expect you to get everything right, but I want to see your thought processes.

And if you really think I'm scum, and that the mostly-absent CDB is the second most likely scumbag, then from my perspective your scumhunting is mediocre or phony. You're still my top suspect, and I'm meaning to reread your posts in their entirety to see if a new pattern emerges.

Heading to a wedding but will hopefully have time to read and post from various hotel rooms between here and southern Utah.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hmm, this is going to come across as somewhat shocking, but after a reread I don't really find elvis all that scummy anymore. Unless she's scumpartners with DGB--the part where she really seemed overconfident in DGB's alignment weighed too much into my thought processes.

summary:

hated my fabulous first post
doesnt think bluesoul and I are scumpartners
gets on me for "partial quotes"
expresses that trying to scumpair on D1 is scummy
says DGB has little or no evidence when drawing connections, scummy
feels out patrick for selective criticism
likes chamber
hits DGB for a post asking for more voting
hits DGB for seeing everyone as townish
hits DGB for softclaiming
doesnt see PJ as maniuplative, doesnt care about meta on PJ
honest frustration at being tied to PJ even though he's townish
votes patrick for not admitting he was trying to tie elvis to PJ
not afraid of dgb as supersaint, happy to hammer
response to MBL includes weird SK comment
gets on MBL for coddling DGB
first case of calling MBL's arguments against elvis "BS" --Aug 7th
hits MBL for trying to drag info out of DGB
reexpresses willingness to hammer DGB
accuses DGB of parroting MBL et al
finds Ether's vote hop scummy
reexpresses the three big things she found scummy--+town points there
again on the MBL quote-chopping, this time to DGB
wonders if pablito and patrick set a trap for her
smartass refusal to claim, poking at DGB
assails CDB for his means of finding elvis scummy via others
assails chamber for double standard about claiming
votes CDB for being afraid to face his "mistake"
" I think she's more helpful to scum even if she's town, so I think people who tried to save her (ahem, MBL) are pretty scummy."
(I really dont like that even if it's semi-logical)
says MBL's attacks on her are BS again
seems to think DGB and ether are not scumpartners

Her approach is a little too self-centered/OMGUSsy. The scum are the people voting her and the town are the people who disagree. I'm not a huge fan of of her reasons for voting some people (Patrick for trying to tie her to PJ, MBL for vote hopping and trying to tie people together) but her argument about CDB aint bad (though thin) and her arguments about Ether and DGB are decent.

More importantly, her tone kinda reads like meandering, frustrated town. Her read on me is wrong, but that's happened to plenty of people in other games. I decently respect her reads of CDB and DGB. Less so, her means of seeing elias or PJ/sarc as townish.

Also, she's created a great web between her and others, and while that would provide lots of info if she's lynched, it'd also do the same tomorrow after a lynch and NK. I generally prefer to keep around more active, scumhunting players, and I think elvis is working harder than many in this game.

Minor note: elvis claimed as scum in the game in which we were scum together. Maybe she's a better player now and is building a meta of not claiming regardless, but it's a mild pro-town point as well that she refused to claim at her own peril.

More later, I am playing Warcraft as I type this post and it may not make perfect sense but I think it's important that I get it out there. Could be wrong, but the overall vibe after a full reread looks a lot different than my view on elvis had become.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm sorry if I'm not willing to contribute anything if its immediately criticized, disregarded, and counted as evidence against me. Tell me I'm a disgrace to this game when my posts are even evaluated.

[MrBuddyLee]

CTD,

Is this the first game in which you've feigned indignant rage as scum?

Not that I mind it--we do need pressure on those punks.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hmm, I really want to

FOS: pablito

but I like his style so I'll just raise an eyebrow for now.

[MrBuddyLee]

I suggest that everyone reread the game from each player's perspective, see what they might have missed, and make a list of top four suspects. Then, maybe we can narrow things down from there.

The major problem with this strategy is it'll be tough to weigh the slackers against the actives, because the more you say, typically, the more likely people's skeptical natures are going to find you scummy. But we have to do this now--before the game dies.

11 players to read, two people a day, we'll all be done by the weekend. Let's roll.

[MrBuddyLee]

Ok guys, hear me out on a theory.

It's in my head that when elias whines about how we perceive his lack of participation, he rarely calls anyone scummy for it. I would expect a townie to be calling this person and that person suspicious for the way they press the issue. But instead, my recollection is that elias doesn't find people scummy for any of that.

So I went back and read his first real post. Here it is, with his evaluative comments bolded:

Sorry for the delay folks, but camp is pretty exhausting. Last week when I meant to reread and write my second post I ended up passing out. So here is my read up to about page 5. Sorry for the block o' text format.

The first post to catch my eye was 28 by bluesoul, in which he completely

overreacted

to a post which seemed pretty clearly to be a joke. The assumption of scumbuddies actually makes sense to me given that he was responding to a post assuming as much. But even if scum are among the non posters, and scum with MBL, wouldnt they already be very aware of the potential for that connection to be picked up? The post just seems

silly

to me. In 31 Sarc seems somewhat

overly cold

in correcting MBL's interpretation of bluesouls comment. Back and forth between PJ and Ether on topic of scumbuddy assumptions is quality, but perhaps

too clean cut

for my liking. In post 77 PJ vote DGB for her post 76 because she "butters up to three people in one post", and

I agree with his vote completely

. In 93 EK makes note of MBL's misunderstanding of Bluesouls 28, and that

it seems kind of fishy and I have to agree

. Post 118 by bluesoul is an entirely

stupid attack

in my opinion, which seems to stem mainly from the fact that he interpretted a different tone in MBLs post than what he ( think) meant. I think that the concept of those percentages being far from exact was pretty apparent in the initial post so

I dislike all the attacks based on this school of thought

.

No vote right now, I want to have a better grasp on the game before I make any decisions I could regret when I return to the game. Please comment and question my post, I will respond to everything next weekend, and I don't want my week long absenses to deter anyone from attacking me.

Top suspect:

Bluesoul for 28 and

attacks

on MBL in 118.

Runner Up:

DBG for post 76

brown-nosing

.

Maybe this is elias's style, but it doesn't feel like he thinks anyone might be scum, it feels like scum trying to nitpick and find technicalities to hang his hat on.

"overreacted", "silly", overly cold", "too clean cut", "kind of fishy", "brown-nosing" sound like someone reading the game critically, but not with true suspicion in mind.

I'll continue the elias reread.

[MrBuddyLee]

Uh, hi. I've returned from camp, and I am in the process of rereading, but you'll have to excuse me for at least a day. For one thing, this game is full of fun filled text walls that I have to sift through. On top of that, the

level of discussion is above anything I've encountered

in any of the games I've played in recently. So it might take me 1-2 days to be fully caught up. As it stands, I have a fairly solid understanding up until page 10. Hopefully I'll be completely with you by the end of this week. So, heres what I have:

On the MBL-Bluesoul % conv:

The whole thing was

blown ridiculously out of proportion

now that I've read it over a few times. Someone (DGB i believe) speculated that it might have been planned, which I think is fairly

ridiculous

too. That conversation really didnt change my outlook on a possible connection between the two of them at all. It seems kind of dumb as a bus and would be a pretty weak attempt at distancing. The only thing that I took from the whole thing with any relevance was that Bluesoul was

trying harder than necessary to come off protown

at the end of it, which gave me a

slight scumvibe

. Nothing too convincing though.

Um...that was really the biggest event in the game in the first ten pages, and theres not much else worth mentioning besides individual reads. So...

MBL:

came off really protown when explaining the whole percentages thing. Hes spent a lot of time in the spotlight and has seemed pretty consistent in all his points. Perhaps a bit lacking in the scumhunting department (though im not in a position to complain), but this can be explained by the large conversation with bluesoul, which occured more because of bluesoul than him.

Bluesoul:

As I said earlier,

slight scum vibes from the tail end of the percentage conversation

. Reading over the whole thing though,

my earlier suspicion for the conversation itself really isnt too convincing

. So only slight suspicion for bluesoul.

PJ:

Hard for me to get a read on thus far. Looks to be the

prodding and questioning sort of playstyle

. These always appear protown to me at first glance but in actuality I find they're

a good way of avoiding real content and scumhunting

(though PJ is no where near avoiding posting content ). As noted by MBL, PJ has been lacking in scumhunting slightly (though I have nothing to compare it to). The response seemed genuine however and he provided some solid reads and insight into his current position in the game, so a fairly solid protown feeling from him.

DGB:

so yeah, some really

weird posts

out of her thus far, and some

out there attacks

with an OMGUS kind of ring to them. Nothing solid, but

not really liking her too much

as of right now.

Sarcastro:

I feel protown about him, though there isnt really much of a reason as to why. He seemed

unnecessarily cold

in his attacks on bluesouls assumption of no pregame talk, but I have no idea whether this is characteristic of his playstyle or not.

Thats really all I have for now. Hopefully I can get started on 10-15 tonight or tomorrow. In conclusion, I'm the only one whos played with basically no one in this game.

Possible bluesoul-elias distancing, as elias points out bluesoul's trying too hard to look protown. Smelled a lil funky there. I don't get a read off his DGB comments: "weird, out there attacks", "not really liking her too much". Uncertain whether that feels scumpairy.

I'm torn on elias. I have a feeling if he's scum he's handed us some decent evidence of who his scumpartners are via his tone. The analyses feel really different from player to player, and I'm curious to see who he leaves out entirely.

[MrBuddyLee]

STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS THOUGHTS UP TO PAGE 15:

chamber: jumps on MBL BLUESOUL connection and votes Bluesoul over MBL

PJ post 229 in response to patricks questions about reactions and

dgbs attacks bothers me

as it spends more time

attacking

patricks questions than just answering the questions. the post just reads as sort of

evasive

to me. I feel the same about 230, which seems to have more

hypothetical fluff

than useful content.

the "parroting" conversation is

useless semantics

. I doubt that patrick had any ulterior motives behind which term he used.

MBL 232 attacks my initial post becuase I make several points against several players but no vote. These were just very basic things I noted and I didnt consider anything there convincing enough for a vote. to understand my "regret" comment, take a look at the player lists from some of my recent games.

In his following post he makes some nice insights on OGML and chamber and especially on patrick. Patricks responses read to me as indignant town, especially when it comes to the snipping issue.

dgbs posts seem

fairly useless and nonsensical

. 263 is

scummy as hell. asks for votes but finds no one scummy

. very noncommittal. then 278 seems like a

throwaway attempt to lose some pressure without addressing any points

against her. it of course failed, but thats how i read it. 290 is an

idiotic bash

of pjs info gathering. oh yeah, cant forget the

appeal to emotion

near the bottom. It bothers me that PJ basically

ignores this entire conversation

though. He also posts a wall of text addressing basically everyone but DGB.

Weird

.

mbls vote for me in 271 is

ridiculous

given the discussion between DGB EK and patrick going on at the time.

At this point I'm thinking DGB scum, the refusal to claim and defeatist attitude basically sealed it for me. At the very least,

a DGB lynch gives excellent alignment info

. I'll once again refrain from voting until I've read through everything.

Note as a control, elias's attack on pro-town me is to call me "ridiculous". That's not really a word that implies scumminess. So if elias is scum, my hypothesis is that he uses more damning accusations of his scumpartners than he does of the townies he's trying to frame.

His stuff on DGB isn't terrible here, but then again sometimes taking potshots at DGB is low hanging fruit. Note his accusations of PJ.. elias actually takes note that PJ wall-of-texts, referencing everyone BUT DGB. And calls that "weird". That's either VERY protown of him to read that carefully for a relationship between DGB and PJ, or it's scum reading paranoidly and spotting an error by their scumpartner that many others might not notice. Possible elias+DGB+PJ scum trio there.

Elias hits PJ pretty hard. Let's see if he maintains the pressure. We know he maintains it on DGB.

[MrBuddyLee]

*shrug*

This game is uninteresting to me and I lack the motivation to get caught up. I dont think this should have any reflection on my alignment. I'm sorry that I underestimated the task of staying caught up while missing weeks at a time. That being said, school is about to start but I will be making an increased effort in this coming week.

My first task will be trying to decide on someone to vote as I have yet to do so throughout this entire game.

So I'll be looking at the two main candidates, first through DGBs case against Elvis (i ignored a good deal of the connection speculation). I hope that this will give you guys at least some sort of read on me going into day two, and that it will motivate me to get back in the game.

This

isnt really very condemning

in my opinion.


This

isnt particularly convincing

either. Its possible that she posted that with your manipulative intentions in mind, but its just as likely that she saw something unaddressed and decided to bring it to the forefront in order to start up conversation.

I dont think that agreeing with a point is necessarily shielding yourself. The way you word this is

pretty negative

, and you sound

very final

in your conclusion.

I find that more scummy

then the post in question.

Well I cant really agree with the first point unless I'm calling myself scummy, so I will say that it is not necessarily a scumtell, though

worth noting that she hadnt been taking any sides

.


Ok.

Nothing too amazing

here.

how so?

153 has

one bad sentence

. What relevance does the last part have other than reinforce the notion that she hadnt been "hiding" to begin with, and had simply agreed with one post, and wanted to resurface the other?

Eh...

fence sitting is fairly scummy but I dont really see the connection

as very convincing.

I dont really see any "protection" going on here, only denial of the accusation. Not very scummy.

Good point here.

So as I see it:

Elvis has been noncommittal and hasnt scumhunted very much. Thats basically the same as me.

DGB's case is far from convincing, and seems to be mostly speculation about connections (which really arent that useful when theyre made about at least 5 different players). I will further my old evaluation of DGB later this week. I'm sorry MBL, cant touch your questions yet.

This is elias's big analysis post where he uses DGB's case on elvis to point out how weak her play is. Does it make you feel like he thinks DGB is scummy? He says her case on elvis is "negative" and "final" and "not very convincing" but he never really decries it as super-scummy. In fact, the only thing he finds scummy about the case is that it's "negative" and "very final". So why's he post it as his evidence he'll use to vote DGB?

Also note elias hadn't voted by September 5th. I'd already played for like two months, driven to Burning Man and back, put the fire out in my jeep's engine, and made 2 welcome-back posts by then. Lack of incentive to move the game along with votes is suspect though not "final".

[MrBuddyLee]

No Bluesoul, I dont expect that one post to give anyone a read. Thats why I said quite clearly that I was going to look at both wagons, look at cases, and place a vote. I also noted that I was sorry for my mistakes and would make an increased effort in the coming week. I'm sure you're very angry about me being gone the whole time, but the fact of the matter is I'm here now. By continuing to make a big deal about my late arrival, you're detracting from the game. Is it cool if I like try to play now or should I leave again? Just wondering what you really want. Heres my analysis of DGB.

Early Game:

throughout the entire early part of the game she seems to throw in these

little bits of dry humor

as if to

disguise and inflate poor posts

. 239 DGB expresses a high level of agreement with MBL's case on Patrick and ends it by questioning his lack of vote, while

she doesnt vote either

. 263 is

scummy as hell as she asks for votes but finds no one scummy

. very noncommittal. Not to mention that then 278 is a very poor

softclaim

that just comes off as

weak and scummy

. 290 attacks PJ's method of info gathering, which is a

silly attack

, because asking questions is the basis of PJ's play. she also

appeals to emotion

at the bottom.

PJ basically ignores this entire conversation however, and posts a wall-o-text addressing basically everyone but DGB.

More recent stuff:

291 through 393 is just post after post of a

disgraceful defeatist attitude

. Then in 394 she mysteriously turns it around, as if kicked in the shins. I believe this turnaround is motivated by the

realization that she may perhaps not be the day one lynch

. This is

something that would motivate scum a lot more than town IMO

.

If she were town, you'd think she would have been posting those PBP's a lot sooner. This is one of the main reasons I find her scummy.

Analysis posts:

395 mainly analizes possible connections to me and IH, which is

fairly useless

on Day One. Though this provides

more solid opinions from her to help us get a read

, it doesnt change my opinion of her at all. 399 and 401 are covered in my previous post. The case is unimpressive. 410 (analizing sarc) is a

decent post, but it is never elaborated on

, as DGB allows her game (from directly after all her analysis is complete) to be dominated by attacks on Elvis. 414 seems to paint OGML in a lurkerish light, though she claims it makes him scummy. I dunno, I just dont see it. Analysis about bluesoul in 418 is

lacking

. 427 for chamber is much the same.

Summary:

Early posts are very scummy. The

small bits of humor seem to be placed in posts mainly to distract from issues at hand and inflate

posts. As the game progressed DGB made some very

scummy posts, softclaimed power role, and eventually went into complete defeatist mode

. After the realization that lynch was not impending, she posted some analysis, but this was

by no means good enough

to detract from the scumminess of her earlier posts.

So

I've compared the two scummier players out there, according to the town

. Rest assured I will post analysis for other players, but I wanted to get these two out of the way first.

To me its fairly clear that DGB is the scummier of the two

and I'm fairly comfortable with my first vote of the game being

vote: DGB

.

So many things to say about this post:

1) He found PJ really weird, but as I expected, never came back to him, instead choosing to "analyze" the "two scummier players out there according to the town".

2) He never really compared DGB to anyone. Was elvis the "other scummy player out there"? If elias is scum, the way he approached the elvis case leads me to believe elvis is not scum with him. I think scum would have gone after their partner a little when their partner was on the ropes. This is pretty much blatant defense, and using DGB's words not his own. And relying on the fact that DGB has to be "bad" in order to clear elvis using DGB's case.

3) Elias admits DGB posted some good analysis, just not good enough to overcome previous scummy posts.

I'm interested to know which of DGB's analyses were good, elias.

Perhaps ones where she spotted your scumpartners?

4) Note the repetition. Elias's first analytical paragraph pretty much just copies and pastes his previous analysis. And then he does the same for much of the next two paragraphs. He's phoning it in, hoping to slide by (as town or scum) by making a choice between the first two big wagons.

Big whoop.

[MrBuddyLee]

Oh yeah, I made part of the above quote red because it's interesting that elias thinks DGB's drawing connections to elias and IH will give "us" opinions to help "us" get a read.

elias, what kind of read do you get when DGB draws connections between you and pablito, patrick, bluesoul and IH?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm coming back Day Two. I just dont see the point of throwing in my two cents today to snide remarks and disrespect.

lol, I guess you're planning on killing the snide and the disrespectful tonight?

[MrBuddyLee]

Odds of CTD being scumpartners with elias or Huck diminishing rapidly.

[MrBuddyLee]

But mostly Elias under pressure is revealing a lot. And the way he's being pretty nonspecific and is going by "previous agenda" before the last vote shows that he has a progression he's been following and doesn't really want to deviate too much away from. Smells scummy to follow his script. If he was town, I'd expect more from him to attack some of the people that are now voting him that were previously on DGB. He's way too defensive.

New thought as well. Elias said something about knowing he was going to vote DGB because he read, but he just hadn't put up his posts about it. That means he lacks a sense of urgency.

One of my favorite scumtells is a player referring to outside material. Elias has done this twice. While his last post feels a little better, I doubt that I will be moving my vote for a while.

I think we need to pressure up Elias even more.

Hence, this is why I feel that Elias defense was a cop-out and a very scummy one at that.

I still believe that Elias language and behavior from earlier is stongly indicative of scum.

I'd like to see more votes on Elias, but I hope it's not out of sheer frustration with him.

DGB especially deserves the most flak for her vote. She was voting Elias, voted e_k to incite some progress and is truly lacking follow-through with whatever plan she had when she voted e_k. If there was a purpose, she really shouldn't be just laying in the background right now. In fact, we've seen her at her best when she's on the defense...

Therefore,

unvote, vote: DGB

This vote by pablito initially disturbed me because I recalled him using fairly strong language about elias's scumminess. So I reread back to where pabs started to get on elias's ass.

pablito's actually been weighing (or pretending to weigh) DGB vs. elias in his mind for weeks. He's been asking each of them questions about the other. I think he's even been asking others to compare the two. It actually feels somewhat genuine upon reread due to the consistency of agenda but creativity in application.

pablito, I'll get back to what bugged me about your vote: you're voting DGB for what feels like a lesser reason than you were voting elias.

Why?

[MrBuddyLee]

pablito, what do you make of DGB's softclaim?

1) She softclaimed when under severe lynch pressure, but did not give us her role. I see that as more townish than scummy, but I need to check other games to see if DGB gives out fake roles as scum.

2) Despite saying this was her least favorite game, and expressing disgust with the town and saying she almost wanted scum to win now cause they're leading the town around by the nose, she still didn't give her role.

3) Her game leading up to her claim is very cocksure and fearless, which is odd considering she wasn't willing to claim her specific role to save herself.

After reading her play for style and tone, I'll roll with a 75% chance she's town with a power role. Which means that scum is like 95% sure she's town with a power role. Which means they probably got nervous at first about her claim and the fallout of lynching a softclaimed player. Which means that the more time passes the more emboldened they might become and possibly even forget that initial fear that lynching a town power role would bite them in the ass the next day.

Again, the pattern I'd expect to see from inartful scum if DGB is town:

* Push a DGB lynch
* Back off sharply when DGB softclaims
* Try to get a full claim to assist with tonight's decisions
* Push other suspects and treat DGB with kid gloves, trying not to arouse her ire in case she's a cop, vig or SK
* As other wagons peter out, lazily drift back to DGB in hopes of lynching power

There's no guarantee that the scum in this game are all inartful, but considering what CDB and elias have shown us, likely at least one is lazy enough to let themselves follow the default pattern. I think artful scum would have done something unexpected, like push DGB relentlessly. Though that would put them at risk if she's a vig, cop or SK.

Time to reread and see who's matching this pattern.

ps. a big thing that bothers me about DGB is that she makes this big deal about me being obvtown but she feigned certainty that I was scum. Said it was OMGUS. I dunno if I can buy that, considering she reeeeeally claims to see my "townie town townness".

[MrBuddyLee]

I lurked much of the game: this was mostly due to camp. The lurking I did afterward was far from damning.

I thought lurking by you was never damning; that you do it both as scum and town. Why would you imply that the lurking after camp was somehow less damning? Very defensive and inconsistent stance.

Further, were I scum, I could have easily lurked straight through to Day Two as

basically no one was pressuring me

.

As town, I don't really take note of whether or not people are "pressuring me" in this manner. It's the kind of thing I take note of and respond to more as scum. Interesting that you claim to be aware of who's pressuring you and when. Also, I call bullshit:

Not liking how Elias is only starting to post content now that he's getting called on it.

I've been getting called for it since like page ten actually

. Read MBL's posts in isolation and you'll see that.

You've been aware all game that I've been pressuring you since page 10. Why lie to us about that now? Possibility: because you have to lie to make your case that as scum you could have just safely lurked through. But I wouldn't let you.

Also, you sure do have a lot of null-tells:

If you read any of my games, you'll find that I get angry on both sides of the game. Its really a null tell

I'm actually very weak as a scumhunter. Maybe not very helpful, but this shouldnt be a scumtell given my playstyle.

My lurking isnt based on alignment, its based on available times, number of games I'm in, and how interesting I find the game.

The following seems to tacitly admit you lurk strategically as scum:

Sure, past lurking can be used against me in cases if you really think its that much of a tell

Overall, I'd say you're pretty damned interested in telling us what's an elias tell and what's not. And you're pretty damned interested in us concluding that NOTHING is an elias tell--it's all null, baby.

291 through 393 is just post after post of a disgraceful defeatist attitude. Then in 394 she(DGB) mysteriously turns it around, as if kicked in the shins. I believe this turnaround is motivated by the realization that she may perhaps not be the day one lynch. This is something that would motivate scum a lot more than town IMO. If she were town, you'd think she would have been posting those PBP's a lot sooner. This is one of the main reasons I find her scummy.

So one of the main reasons you find DGB scummy is because she behaves the same exact way you do? A disgraceful, defeatist attitude followed by PBPAs you would have posted much sooner if you were town?

[MrBuddyLee]

Ok Elias, let's back up for a second. You're not contributing anymore because people are persecuting you. You feel persecuted because just when you started to participate, people started voting you for no reason--they didn't read your PBPAs:

My problem is that I was voted immediately without acknowledgement of what was in those posts.

I hadnt hoped to prove I was back in the game. I had hoped that I could at least convince people to give me a chance to post all I had before wagoning me. Clearly this was an unrealistic expectation.

This led me to believe that I wasnt getting back in the game regardless, thus my effort was cut short.

So you've created an excuse to give you a reason not to post any more today. Let's see if your "persecution" argument flies.

It's pretty clear to me they were listening and decided they found your PBPA cases suspect and decided to apply more pressure to you: pablito 616, chamber 618, me in 628, pablito in 629, elvis 640, chamber 648, patrick 686, Patrick 689, pablito 703, me 706, bluesoul 709, Huck 713.

Holy shit, man, that's a lot of people specifically commenting on your PBPAs. And the poll numbers don't look good--78% of respondents say your PBPAs are badly lacking. Only Ether's 656 clears you, but she doesn't indicate she's read your PBPA posts at all--so if anything, the people DEFENDING you are the ones not paying attention to your posts, lol.

And you even acknowledge your posts sucked, starting with your DGB case:

The reason I relied exclusively on DGB's words was essentially laziness. I was simply cutting corners, and for that I apologize.

Here's your elvis analysis:

Certainly some bad posts in there. The main problem I have with her now that I've read over her posts myself is that she really seems to ignore a lot of major issues. Then, she picks up on something small, and makes a large post about it. I guess this is essentially lurking in plain site. In addition, she was pretty noncommittal early in the game. However, once attention was focused on her, she was forced to post about the meat of the game. Though shes had some bad posts late game, she has defended some of the major points against her well and overall improved the quality of her posting. I find her fairly scummy, but less so than DGB. As to whether she is in my top 3, its hard to say as

I've only fully analized two players as thoroughly as I should.

Ok, so elvis is scummy because she:
1) ignores major issues
2) nitpicks
3) was noncommittal early
4) has improved since wagoned

I'm not saying you're wrong here, I'm just sayin your bullet points are pretty weak. Couldn't you cite some specific elvis posts or cases to argue why you find her "fairly scummy"?

Let's check another:

bluesoul: Basically reads as town to me.

Your bluesoul post says he's town, but in your subsequent reasoning paragraph you list off six negatives and zero positives about him. Hello, if you're going to make the statement, "reads like town" give some supporting examples. Instead, you gave six examples why you might find him suspicious. No wonder people are keeping their votes on you--your "cases" aren't the least bit convincing.

I'm going to come across like a dick here, but there's no two ways about it: you really don't enjoy scumhunting, do you, elias? You have just about no interest, and it shows, and I'll admit it does make it difficult to tell if you're scum because I'm getting the sense you would be equally indifferent as town.

My hypothesis is that you decided to stop posting because you were getting yourself in trouble with your half-assed posts, and you decided to stop posting as a survival tactic. Sadly, I could see you using that tactic as either scum or town.


Back on topic, you claim that because you're being persecuted and your PBPAs ignored, you won't post your thoughts anymore:

I'll come back day two and see if you guys feel like listening to my posts. Just answer me this: If my posts simply cause votes against me, why post them? If no one values my cases, why make them? It seems to me I'm better off just voting for who I find scummy in this game, and keeping my reasoining to myself.

Did I ever say in my last post that I stopped reading the game? Or that I had no more cases I could be posting? No. I never said that. I have other things I could post.

But theres no point.

I have just demonstrated above that you are full of shit. Almost everyone in this game has commented on your PBPAs and said they were significantly lacking or scummy. There goes your excuse for not posting your thoughts, so I suggest you get to it. Just throw them out there stream of consciousness. From memory--no more PBPAs. You say you "have other things you could post". Well post them from memory--we won't hold you to being exact, but we will hold you to that claim that you had "more cases".

If my posts simply cause votes against me, why post them?

Because you'll get better eventually. And for now, some of us may still be able to tell the difference between bad Elias scum and bad elias town. And maybe some of the votes on you are unsupported votes placed by scum and we'll spot them.

If no one values my cases, why make them?

Because if you come up town someday, we'll at least know your suspicions were sincere and perhaps follow them. And if you're scum you'll accidentally hand us your scumpartners as you make cases.

[MrBuddyLee]

The three points (ignores major issues, noncommital, nitpicky) aren't really things I see as universally scummy. Maybe if elias brought a few examples forth and explained why he found them scummy, the case would be more convincing. As it stands, he's just accusing you of being a bit of an odd bird.

Granted, when I misread you for a while (at least I think I did) I was finding your choice of focus odd. Getting on our cases for making scumpairings was odd to me. Obsessing about me "snipping quotes", SK speculation, supersaint speculation, it was all odd choice of focus to me.

Elias, is DGB the only person you see as pushing your case in a scummy manner? You seemed pretty ticked at the four people voting you, but never really suspicious of us.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm wondering how much of Elias's vaunted 10-1 record as scum is due to this same pattern:

* lurk while lazy town does nothing
* when called out, get indignant
* post some mediocre crap
* get really angry at anyone, after all, I'M POSTING NOW HOW DARE YOU
* back off and seem relatively reasonable
* refuse to do nothing further til the next day

Sadly, I think it's time to do some research. I would hate to lose to someone with that lame of a playstyle.

[MrBuddyLee]

elias, please make a stronger case on DGB and I might bite. Your current case feels somewhat whimsical. I'm not sure you're 80% convinced she's scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

My gut has told me at various times that Patrick, bluesoul, elvis, Huck, Ether, chamber, CDB are town. ugh, I hate making blanket statements like that because each of them has done some scummy shit. But for some reason I feel like stating that.

That means our scum lie in:

DGB, elias, CTD, pablito.

The weird thing is, that implies that if DGB and elias aren't busing each other, then the scumteam is CTD+pablito+elias/DGB. It's much more likely I've been fooled by some clever bastard. Good job, asswipes.

[MrBuddyLee]

Bussing/distancing from DGB: Not a totally unreasonable accusation, but I'm simply not enough of an asshole to keep on someone just to act triumphant if they end up scum.

This is a weird thing for a townie to say. You were on DGB for about two months straight, so I guess you're saying that as scum you wouldn't be such a huge dick and bus your own partner for that long?

[MrBuddyLee]

chamber, if you had to pick out three townies, who would they be? i see you as a likely scum target tonight, so i'd like to hear that side of your opinions. (i know you suspect elvis and elias.)

do you have an opinion of pablito, patrick or ctd?

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, I know this is a pain to research and type out, so maybe you can do it off the top of your head. What's conflicting for you about pablito? The reason I ask is because I waver back and forth on pabs pretty much every time I read him.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm pretty sure Elias isn't scum, so lynching him would be bad for the town.

This is pretty bold. I'll reread your posts to see if you've elaborated before, but if not, please do.

[MrBuddyLee]

Elias seemed to be ranting more than anything. I didn't see particular reason to object to his suspicions, or I would have pointed them out. And I don't see where you get the impression that I'm unwilling to comment on him in the near future, as

I clearly state that I don't think there's enough material to judge him upon on his own.

I dislike the wagon and won't support it based on what we have, don't see what's bizarre about that.

By the time he actually started appearing on the map, I had already formed an opinion on most other players, and that certainly played a part in how I perceived the attacks made against him. I've reread his posts just now to check if I have missed something, and I stand by my point.

Based on his posts alone, I don't think there is a compelling case for him being scum.

That is not to say that I find his posts particularly pro-town.

So far he's been very selective in who and what he commented on, and

that makes him tough to place for me.

However, there's no reason for me to assume that he's done this deliberately or because of a scummy motive, it's just a result of him not being around for large parts of the game.

I'm pretty sure Elias isn't scum, so lynching him would be bad for the town.

So the little spat you had with elias where he held his breath and pouted... that made you MORE sure elias isn't scum?

You claim to have done a reread of elias on September 25th and found him "not particularly pro-town" but "not a compelling case for him being scum".

Now you are pretty sure he isn't scum. Mind-boggling. His first several posts after your reread include:

Am I dead yet?

(I'm trying out the DGB style of posting. It apparently gets you out of being lynched)

I'm sorry if I'm not willing to contribute anything if its immediately criticized, disregarded, and counted as evidence against me.

At this point I've made the decision to essentially sit this day out.

I'm coming back Day Two. I just dont see the point of throwing in my two cents today to snide remarks and disrespect.

and this:

I'm not refusing to do anything, only refusing to post the rest of my PBPs as theyre irrelevant.

CTD, Elias claims to have more Post-by-post analyses. Do you buy that? Did something in his posts since September 25th change your mind on him, or did you do yet another reread and decide he looked townish? If so, what did you spot? I personally smell a lie, and don't think elias has PBPs he's holding back on, considering:

1) if he's town, he knows he's a possible cop investigation tonight and therefore a possible nightkill. he shouldn't be holding back on info the town might find useful.
2) he's admitted that some of our criticisms of his pbpas have validity, and he's admitted that he's NOT posting more out of self-preservation.

If any other player is "pretty sure elias isn't scum" please stand up and cover CTD's back right now.

unvote, vote: CrashTextDummie

[MrBuddyLee]

For anyone checking the first post to confirm this, you won't see it:

CTD replaced bird111111111 who replaced Sarcastro.

Note elias's sole opinions of Sarc:

Sarcastro: I feel protown about him, though there isnt really much of a reason as to why.

Sarcastro had an equal lack of posting, and content in his posts. His main contribution was the question to bluesoul, which was good, but generally nothing impressive. Then Bird comes in and really doesnt post much of worth either.

So we have CTD finding elias "probably not scum" for indiscernable reasons, and we have elias finding Sarc protown for no reason.

Would two scum be so blatant in their protection of one another? I find it difficult to believe scum-CTD would moor his boat to scum-elias this past month. More likely, he'd moor to town-elias in hopes of coming up roses if elias gets bagged.

Gotta think about this, but their interaction is clearly weird.

bird on elias:

Elias_the_thief: Not liking the change about bluesoul, but other than that don't really have a read on him. Neutral, leaning scum

Sarc never mentioned elias.

[MrBuddyLee]

Why yes, he is ambivalent, and it's a scummy ambivalence, in my humble opinion. The impression I am getting is that he wouldn't have cared at all which wagon took of, but that he didn't think he could afford switching himself to help momentum because it was a pretty clear elvis vs. DGB situation and this move could have been perceived as a U-turn.

So you're saying that bluesoul is scum and DGB and elvis aren't? Or that both elvis and DGB are?

I noticed this on a previous read as well, and asked a similar question. CTD replied:

I find it distinctly possible that bluesoul was bussing/distancing from DGB, mostly because of the ease with which he let her slide off the radar, now that mostly everyone has lost interest in her.

This would make it a bluesoul-DGB-elvis scum trio, since you suspected that bluesoul was indifferent to which of the elvis-DGB wagons took off. Likelihood of that? If not, can you please reevaluate those three players based on that set of circumstances?

I must say I am as puzzled as he is as to why he's pretty much being run up for shameful non-participation when he evidently put that phase behind him.

That's not why he was being run up. He was being run up for his dreadful analyses of DGB and e_k, and the fact that he only analyzed those two because they were the "popular" choices. He found PJ/pablito scummy but never went back to analyze him at all, which was glaring. I believe people ran elias up for nonparticipation and left their votes on him for the poor quality of his posts. I assume they wanted to hear more from elias from which to base a decision, and all they got was a bluesoul PBPA and a bunch of whining.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, do you think Elias' temper tantrum was faked? What about it felt off to you? Or do you think it was just anti-town and unhelpful?

I have no pure read on the tantrum. I just know he has "no motivation" to find scum right now and isn't posting more analysis out of self-preservation, which is more traditionally a scum tactic. I do think some of it was over the top, followed by more reasonable discourse, which smells a little bit like good cop/bad cop to me, LOL.

I just know the kid has like a 10-1 record as scum and there has to be a reason for it. He clearly doesn't win games because he's a stellar scumhunter-faker. So what alternative tactics could one use to amass such a stellar record?

* Appeal to emotion
* Berate and browbeat your accusers into submission
* Continue to lurk shamelessly
* Refuse to contribute and prey on the town's goodwill

I'm almost done with a summary post of everyone, but I plan to skim elias's 11 games as scum soon.

[MrBuddyLee]

Here is who each player finds scummy, kind of in order:
MBL: CTD, elias, pablito
bluesoul: elias, DGB, Ether
huck: elvis, CTD, pablito, patrick, elias
pablito: DGB, ether, elias
patrick: DGB, elias
chamber: elias, elvis
CTD: MBL, bluesoul, DGB, CDB, Patrick
elias: DGB, bluesoul
CDB: elvis, DGB
Ether: elvis, DGB
elvis: CDB, DGB, Ether, MBL
DGB: bluesoul, elvis, elias, pablito

Here is who each player finds townish:
MBL: elvis, chamber, Huck
bluesoul: e_k
huck: bluesoul, chamber, dgb
pablito: cdb, mbl, e_k, huck
patrick: bluesoul, mbl, ether, elvis, ctd, pablito, huck
CTD: elvis, elias
chamber: nada
elias: maaaybe MBL, bluesoul
CDB: nada
Ether: Patrick, elias, CDB
elvis: elias
DGB: nada

Please correct me where I'm incorrect about your positions. I'll update this post after hearing from everyone. I wanted to make a summary to clarify where we stand today and possibly point out conflicts and oddities.

8 find DGB scummy!
7 find elias scummy
4 find elvis scummy
3 find pablito scummy
3 find bluesoul scummy
2 find CDB scummy
2 find MBL scummy
2 find Patrick scummy
2 find CTD scummy
2 find Ether scummy
none find chamber or Huck scummy

5 find elvis townish
3 find elias townish
3 find bluesoul townish
3 find Huck townish
3 find MBL townish
2 find chamber townish
1 finds CDB townish
1 finds DGB townish
1 finds Ether townish
1 finds CTD townish
1 finds pablito townish
1 finds Patrick townish

[MrBuddyLee]

Random observations I came across while assembling all that:

huck notices that elvis is going after mbl while being disturbed by the dissolution of the dgb wagon. good observation, and since I know it's not protection of a scumpartner, protown points to huck for critical observation skills and true curiosity.

yeah, bluesoul checking other games to see what our players are up to is somewhat protown. i think ctd did the same with Ether.

pablito foses cdb but cdb is not a lurker he wants to lynch. curious--why is someone you suspect someone you don't want to lynch?

patrick same confusion with me on pablito, not many suspects at present. ctd also noted this and it has struck me as strange for a few days as patrick demoted several of his top suspects.

CTD is overconfident on PJ/pablito and elias. overconfident on one could be a cop-mason sign. two and that's out the window--is he just typically overconfident in his statements?

Ether's supersaint call could be interpreted as a warning to scumpartners not to hammer. Note that she hopped on the wagon quickly after DGB's hint at a power role.
July 28th--DGB softclaims
July 31st--Ether piles on a vote, the 5th.
August 3rd--Ether brings up the supersaint after metaing DGB as scum

Not sure Ether would go to the trouble of metaing DGB as scum if Ether is town--Ether seems pretty damned lazy.

[MrBuddyLee]

First three games I read of elias as scum, he posted one or two sentence posts and everyone let him coast through the game.

Then I read this one, and he spouted CAPITALIZED FUCK YOUS and RETARDS when he was at L-1. And continued that attitude throughout the game. And was scum.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6623

In this game, elias was scum and said that he was "done with this day" and that day ones are worthless for finding scum and such:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6869

In this game as scum, elias gets overdefsnsive after making a vote mistake and putting someone at L-1. Soon afterwards, he is bored of the game on D1 again.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5025

Elias lurked to victory in this game as scum:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6479

In this game as scum, elias is fairly active and when he gets in trouble counterattacks a player aggressively and gets him to back down:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6101

In this game as scum and a couple of the others, elias volunteers his own meta:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5221

In this game as town, elias survived a ton of attacks for his lurking. He got super overdefensive and angry, and called people MEAN NAMES IN CAPS.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5886

Conclusion: elias does a good job of hiding his meta but it does seem he gets disinterested/bored more often as scum and then scrambles to save himself from lurker lynch. He's earned his good record--he is VERY weaselly when under fire. His indignance sounds real.

I suggest that anyone who is thinking of clearing elias read a few of his other games before underestimating him. He is a clever monkey.

[MrBuddyLee]

CTD, please point out the inaccuracies in my post. I did the best I could based on available information. The fact that I made the post should have no bearing on my alignment, and I'm surprised that's even an issue. It's just a tool to help get us to where we need to be. A few things, particularly the fact that 8/12 find DGB scummy, caught my eye.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, were you planning on following up your analysis from post 873? Your description of how you'd expect scum to behave if DGB is town seems to fit my play almost exactly, to the point where I wonder if it's catered, but you don't seem to have pressed this at all.

Thanks for doing part of the legwork for me. Does anyone else's behavior come close to fitting the pattern?

[MrBuddyLee]

Pretty sure this game is stalling because CDB and Ether are douchenozzles.

Seriously, you two, if you're going to abandon a game at least have the class to post in the thread so everyone knows you're abandoning it. You've been active elsewhere on the site this past week. It's not like the 10 seconds it takes to post "sorry, replace me" is going to kill you.

[MrBuddyLee]

Conclusion: elias does a good job of hiding his meta but it does seem he gets disinterested/bored more often as scum and then scrambles to save himself from lurker lynch. He's earned his good record--he is VERY weaselly when under fire. His indignance sounds real.

I suggest that anyone who is thinking of clearing elias read a few of his other games before underestimating him. He is a clever monkey.

MBL, it looks like he does the same thing as town or scum (angry, name-calling). Why do you think this game fits his scum meta and not his town meta?

I didn't say that. I said don't underestimate the kid. He does a great job of manipulating when he's on the ropes as scum or town. Which is fine and dandy if he's town, but which may reek of false genuine as scum.

He's like 4-6 as town because he's not very good at scumhunting but manages to barely keep from getting lynched by whining, clawing and scratching. He's 10-1 as scum because he fails to scumhunt and blames it on his terrible scumhunting. And then claws, bites and scratches to keep from getting lynched for his lurking, terrible votes and arguments.

[MrBuddyLee]

I would love to see you make a more aggressive, convicted case on someone. Not because I will want to lynch you if you're wrong, but because if you're town I'd love to see you get enthusiastic about being right.

[MrBuddyLee]

elias hasn't posted much, so you should read everything he's posted.

You should read DGB's behavior once she was placed at L-1, and keep reading through the elvis wagon to see if you think DGB really thinks elvis is scum and vice-versa.

elvis has played an interesting game start to finish and you should probably read her posts in context, as they're very reactive to others. The truth lies in whether her reactions are genuine or manufactured.

You should read petroleumjelly's posts to see if it sounds like normal PJ--pablito replaced him and has posted some meandering but occasionally insightful posts.

See if you can figure out what's up with Patrick, and whether it's weird that he doesn't see many people as scummy right now.

chamber's contributed more than usual early in the game--see if you can get a read.

CTD is very bold--see if you think he's incautious at all.

CDB ain't done shit.

bluesoul's been alternatively combative and indifferent. See how his occasional arguments read to you.

HackerHuck's expressed some suspicions with decent followup. Not a ton of posts--read em all.

This is a pretty lazy summary of gamestate, but then again you're a lazy bastard for asking for it.

[MrBuddyLee]

I like fast games. They make it easier for me to find scum.

Can you explain this please?

[MrBuddyLee]

You guys may find today to be a pain in the ass, but I believe it'll pay off in spades tomorrow. Whoever's still alive will have 1-2 data points to work with, and depending on who gets lynched and who dies overnight, there may be a massive amount of data to work with, connecting people based on their opinions of the dead.

Right now, the only person I think could die and yield nearly no information is chamber, so I really hope he's alive tomorrow.

Patrick, I don't actually want CTD lynched today. I wanted to apply some pressure to see how he reacted and see who would bite. But he's one of those players who contributes so much analysis that it'd be a huge loss to lynch him D1 if he's town, and if he's scum I have to have faith that we can bury him with his own words in the days to come. (Or an investigation.)

There's not much time to play pressure games, and especially not with someone who the town would consider lynching today.

unvote, vote: DGB.

I am sorely tempted to ask for a claim for several reasons:
1) If DGB is town, scum already knows she's probably telling the truth and is prepared to target her for NK for hinting at a claim. It wouldn't endanger her further.
2) If DGB is scum, she will have to pluck out a specific role to fill out her claim, and either she will overlap someone else's actual role or her chosen role will reek of an attempt to pick a unique one.
3) If she claims cop and isn't counterclaimed, it will probably end the DGB lynch speculation here and now and we get 8 days to work on a proper lynch. She probably gets a protect at night.

DGB, I'm tempted to say it'd be protown of you to claim right now. What do you think? What does everyone else think?

[MrBuddyLee]

In a nutshell, I've seen some suspicions in different posts of his that didn't line up properly, and I found his overconfidence/brashness somewhat disproportionate. I don't think CTD is a good lynch for today and never have. But I did want to see more people's opinions on him because even if he's wily scum, one of his less wily scumpartners might screw up when talking about him and give him away. And for the most part, he's avoided being talked about critically today, which is no bueno.

I didn't really get what I was looking for from the town when I voted CTD. Which may be telling--perhaps his scumpartners didn't see him as threatened and shrugged off my vote.

[MrBuddyLee]

elias (he's always scum when he does nothing early) at deadline. In that order.

This is what I was expecting to find when I researched him, but is not really what I found. Can you cite?

[MrBuddyLee]

And for the most part, he's avoided being talked about critically today, which is no bueno.

Could you explain this, please? What have I done in order to avoid being talked about critically?

I'm not even sure what that means, really, so some clarification would be appreciated.

Crappy use of the English language. Let me try again.

CTD, Sarc and bird really haven't been put through any critical analysis by other players today. If CTD dies tonight as town, we won't learn much about other players' alignment from that death. No matter who else dies tonight, we won't learn a ton about CTD by reading the dead person's opinions of CTD. We'll be limited either way by working off what CTD has said about others and not vice-versa.

This becomes more of a problem later in the game when if CTD comes up scum we'll want to see what potential scumpartners had to say about him on D1.

[MrBuddyLee]

unofficial vc with 7 to lynch:

DrippingGoofball: 5 (Elias_the_thief, Patrick, elvis_knits, MBL, bluesoul)
elvis_knits: 3 (DrippingGoofball,

Lowell

, HackerHuck, Xylthixlm)
Elias_the_thief: 2 (

bluesoul

, chamber, pablito)
bluesoul: 2 (CrashTextDummie, Lowell)
CrashTextDummie: 1 (

MrBuddyLee

)

Can I get some opinions on the pros/cons of getting a full claim from DGB right now? Meaning right now?

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: elias

I just reread all of elias's posts addressing pablito. I suggest everyone else do the same.

Each time elias addresses pablito's attacks on elias, he finds pablito's attacks sorely deficient in many, many ways. You would think this would result in elias thinking pablito is scum and making a push to get pablito lynched for scummy fake-scumhunting.

But instead, elias's posts don't really attempt to pin down pablito's alignment at all. Only once (I believe) in 7 or 8 posts addressing pablito does elias actually say pablito's misrepresentations and weak attacks are actually "scummy".

Elias doesn't seem to be curious about pablito's alignment at all.

For the most part, it looks like either weak distancing or an attempt by elias to weaken town-pablito's arguments and/or persuade town-pablito and others that elias is town.

elias, where do you fit pablito into your list of scumminess? Is he in your top three? Why have you never tried to get pablito lynched?

DGB, considering you have already essentially told people you have a role, I am asking everyone what they think about having you fully claim. If you have a role, I would prefer to have you taken off the lynch table early rather than at the last minute today. That should make sense to you.

As for your comparison of yourself to elvis, she hasn't claimed. And I don't find her terribly scummy, though her recent posts have been weak and not really scumhunty in nature.

I think what I'd like to see here is a full claim from DGB, and if it holds water, a press on elias. I don't like the idea of DGB getting away with a softclaim today when two-thirds of the town finds her scummy. She could just be buying time to refine her claim if/when power roles come up dead today/tonight. As far as I can tell, there is very little risk to town in having DGB claim, and massive benefit to us if she is scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

First, take a look at the first thing I say in 850 if you really think not calling him scum more fervently is any sort of implication.

I'm reposting your 850 here. CTD had to drag that comment out of you:

I figured that in an invitational, we could be civil and actually put my mistakes behind us and focus on what I was putting into it. Sure, past lurking can be used against me in cases if you really think its that much of a tell, but to the point of completely ignoring what I have to say? Yes. That is surprising.

Do you think "completely ignoring what [you] have to say" is scummy, or just bad form? Do you think 5 people voting you (I think that was the peak of your wagon) equates to

everyone

completely ignoring what you have to say?

I'm actually pretty unsure how to answer the first question. Normally I'd say its scummy to just place a vote without any response to the post that HAD to have caused the vote. But when 5 people do it, its sort of difficult to call them all scum. The five people voting me isnt what equates to everyone completely ignoring me. What equates to completely ignoring me is that those 5 votes from the only five people that even acknowlegded the posts. The rest quite literally ignored them or basically said "oh Elias posted big deal".

I think CTD was getting at the same thing I am--you don't seem to be looking at people's actions to see if they're scummy. You seem to be looking for holes in their arguments to defend yourself.

Historically, I have found scum (or fancy I have) by spotting players who are arguing but not scumhunting. I've found one such player in you. At least DGB seems like she's trying to find scum, though to some extent it's reactionary pap. (OMGUS vote on me when she was at L-1, and now OMGUS suspicion again when I put her at L-2.)

[MrBuddyLee]

xyl, what do you think of DGB? In a recent survey, four out of five scummers found her scummier than Folger's Crystals.

[MrBuddyLee]

That's right, she(elvis) hasn't (claimed). I believe she had the same number of votes when she REFUSED to claim as I did when I soft claimed.

I could be wrong on this, because it plays into WIFOM to some extent. But you used a softclaim to get people off your back. elvis didn't. So I feel like you would owe us a full claim more than she does.

I also don't see what damage it would do it you're town. If you are town, you're already the nightly target of a mafia roleblocker if there is one. You're not likely to get a doc protect, so I doubt your claim would affect that. You're scummiest or second scummiest according to public opinion, so you'll probably be alive tomorrow.

It's a little strange that I keep asking for people's opinion on this topic and getting nada. I imagine scum is a little scared to discuss such a sensitive subject. Or smells a trap.

I suppose if we decide to lynch elias, we don't really need a claim from DGB, but I'm still torn on whether elias is just a bizarro townie or actual scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

We're down to elias vs. DGB at this point. I could see someone else being lynched if something crazy happens, but to be honest, I see this coming down to a mano-a-mano.

I say we have them make cases against each other and lynch whoever comes out scummiest. Here's elias's current case against DGB:

Heres my analysis of DGB.

Early Game:

throughout the entire early part of the game she seems to throw in these little bits of dry humor as if to disguise and inflate poor posts. 239 DGB expresses a high level of agreement with MBL's case on Patrick and ends it by questioning his lack of vote, while she doesnt vote either. 263 is scummy as hell as she asks for votes but finds no one scummy. very noncommittal. Not to mention that then 278 is a very poor softclaim that just comes off as weak and scummy. 290 attacks PJ's method of info gathering, which is a silly attack, because asking questions is the basis of PJ's play. she also appeals to emotion at the bottom. PJ basically ignores this entire conversation however, and posts a wall-o-text addressing basically everyone but DGB.

More recent stuff:

291 through 393 is just post after post of a disgraceful defeatist attitude. Then in 394 she mysteriously turns it around, as if kicked in the shins. I believe this turnaround is motivated by the realization that she may perhaps not be the day one lynch. This is something that would motivate scum a lot more than town IMO. If she were town, you'd think she would have been posting those PBP's a lot sooner. This is one of the main reasons I find her scummy.

Analysis posts:

395 mainly analizes possible connections to me and IH, which is fairly useless on Day One. Though this provides more solid opinions from her to help us get a read, it doesnt change my opinion of her at all. 399 and 401 are covered in my previous post. The case is unimpressive. 410 (analizing sarc) is a decent post, but it is never elaborated on, as DGB allows her game (from directly after all her analysis is complete) to be dominated by attacks on Elvis. 414 seems to paint OGML in a lurkerish light, though she claims it makes him scummy. I dunno, I just dont see it. Analysis about bluesoul in 418 is lacking. 427 for chamber is much the same.

Summary:

Early posts are very scummy. The small bits of humor seem to be placed in posts mainly to distract from issues at hand and inflate posts. As the game progressed DGB made some very scummy posts, softclaimed power role, and eventually went into complete defeatist mode. After the realization that lynch was not impending, she posted some analysis, but this was by no means good enough to detract from the scumminess of her earlier posts.

So I've compared the two scummier players out there, according to the town. Rest assured I will post analysis for other players, but I wanted to get these two out of the way first. To me its fairly clear that DGB is the scummier of the two and I'm fairly comfortable with my first vote of the game being

vote: DGB

.

I'd give this a 3/10 for summarizing the more obvious points against DGB.

Note for later:

410 (analizing sarc) is a decent post, but it is never elaborated on

That's the only nice thing elias says about DGB... mark my words, if elias comes up scum, this may very well be him pointing out his scumpartner Sarc/bird/CTD.

[MrBuddyLee]

Here's DGB's case against elias:

* Who are your top three suspects in order, and why?
I have FOUR.
Elias for scummy slacking.

DGB, I'm still interested to know what really got you on the Elias train despite little to no mention of your suspicion on him earlier.

I still think elvis is the scummiest player, but the wagon was going nowhere. Elias needed to be pressured after lurking for so long. Did we have much reason to suspect Elias earlier on? He frekkin' wasn't posting AT ALL. I would still rather lynch elvis today, but Elias is a good second choice.

DGB gets a 0.5/10 for her case against elias.

unvote, vote: DGB

You're a molecular biologist and economist. Please live up to your intellectual reputation and make a real case after three months. I don't get the sense you've really tried to figure the kid out, which could very well mean you're scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

DrippingGoofball

- She's the player who was most focused on, and it's kind of a pain because she's so tough to read. I wasn't impressed by her early game shenanigans (of particular note is her calling for more votes and wagons, while keeping her own vote close to the chest), I wasn't impressed by her implosion and baiting to be lynched, and I certainly wasn't impressed by her analysis, which was obvious BS. This is evidenced by the fact that she pretty much analyzed everyone under the pre-formed decision that e_k is scum, which just doesn't hold any ground as a serious approach. It's not at all surprising to me that she got a lot more offensive once she stopped being poked at. For any other player, this would be an open and shut case, but since it's DGB, I can't be sure. Still, that makes her a decent lynch in my opinion.

I have to reread DGB, but she's certainly not the most likely scum candidate in my mind, so there's a decent chance that lynching her is bad for the town as well

What happened here? Or are those weasel words on Oct. 8th and you never really changed your mind?

I went searching for CTD's thoughts on DGB because I recalled him being quite vocal on elias (and not thinking elias's scum). Sure enough, I found jack-shit DGB analysis from CTD, who is instead marching off into the wilderness attacking bluesoul.

CTD, I will reread your bluesoul case and bluesoul's posts, but the fact that you find our top two lynch candidates to both be likely town boggles me. What are your thoughts on DGB off the top of your head?

[MrBuddyLee]

DGB's not likely to get lynched so you're my second option...

...I'm somewhat surprised to say that DGB has backed off my scumdar significantly recently. It's a marked playstyle change recently, I can't decide if that's in itself scummy.

This is a really weird juxtaposition of statements to find in one post. Please clarify.

In one of your next posts you say:

She appeared scummy for most of the game and her posts lately have been significantly less so. That doesn't mean I'm exonerating her entirely, it means that to me now she's had both scummy and protown moments. Just a quirk you're going to have to deal with.

But she's still your top choice for lynch at the time you write this point? Something's not jiving.

And a few posts later:

I'm gonna list the players from my opinion of scummiest to towniest.

1.) DGB - Despite dropping off the radar recently she's still been the most consistent to me. My position may be somewhat unique as most of the posts I find scummy reference me, so I'm naturally somewhat biased.

(post-post edit: I see you already addressed my questions, which were also posed by Patrick.)
I see that Patrick noticed this oddity as well:

Bluesoul, I still want a response about your changing stance on DGB, because as it stands, it looks like a change solely with the momentum.

Finding her more actions more protown than previously doesn't mean I can't still think she's scummy. She went from very scummy to just scummy and there's really nobody moreso at the moment. Call it what you will, at this point I'm bored with this day, we're not accomplishing a damn thing. I'd love to see a concrete deadline placed so we have to act

somewhere

.

OK, bluesoul, you've made it clear you're done with today and just want a lynch. Well today's not over yet, and actually the real work is just beginning

right now

. And you appear to be vulnerable to lynch, primarily because of your self-acknowledged "insincere, indifferent" playstyle.

Your top four recently were DGB, Ether, elias, CTD. I think it's time for you to lead the town and make your case.

To CTD: I see why you're up in arms about bluesoul. Early-game nitpicking on strange procedural arguments and late-game indifference. I'm not sure it equates to scumminess but at least I see where you were coming from. I don't understand your strident stance on bluesoul while you're ignoring DGB and clearing elias, which I think neatly summarizes why I find you suspicious right now.

[MrBuddyLee]

DGB's massive OMGUS on me HAS to mean she has a power role and is town. If not, she's playing it up magnificently. She finds me town until I vote her again or ask for a claim. It's visceral.. I can feel it.

elias or bluesoul.

[MrBuddyLee]

DGB you are the queen of OMGUS. If you're bullshitting this power role OMGUS I'm gonna be pissed, but I don't think you are.

[MrBuddyLee]

I've been trying to understand her behavior. Of course I'm not going to take this read as gospel, but it makes more sense than anything else. She finds me ultra townie til I ask for a claim or vote her--it's incredibly retarded.

With DGB, you either have to pin her down or make some kind of gut call based on her wackiness. That's why I've been looking for a claim from her.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm really, really torn on this vote. I mean, look at the case DGB has made on the person I'm about to switch my vote to, elias. It's the worst case I've ever seen. It's nonexistent. DGB is not even trying, and this is an invitational game, which is supposed to be best of the best. My gut tells me she may not be trying because she's lazy power, but I'd hate to be fooled by a lame fakeclaim.

At least elias has made a small case on DGB. Read DGB's posts and you'll see she hasn't really provided evidence on anyone since she took a stab at elvis. Her OMGUS on me is terrible and she's basically voting elias for lurking.

So I'm not going to go with my gut just yet. I want pressure on DGB to make a case she believes in, so there will be something to judge her on tomorrow.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL's behavior makes sense if he's vexed by DGB's softclaim and her failure to scumhunt. There's a decent chance I'm not around tomorrow, and I'm trying to dredge up as many reactions and as much info related to her as I can before nightfall. She may very likely get investigated, nightkilled or doc saved, which would mean she'll be a crux of tomorrow. A successful lynch would be a huge bonus, but even if we fail, I want to hear everyone's opinions on things like:

* "What do you think of DGB's claim, and should she claim fully?"
* "What do you think of DGB's scumhunting and suspicions?"
* "Is elias's lack of curiosity about alignments indicative of his alignment?"
* "Is elias's last-minute shift from DGB to pablito sincere, considering I forced his hand?"
* "Has CTD really been right on DGB and bluesoul (scum), and elvis and elias (town)?" (his posts caused me to reread and I changed my mind in at least 2 of those 4 cases)
* "Is bluesoul's coasting scummy?"

There's probably scum in the rest of the pack (Patrick, Huck, Xyl, pablito) but I doubt we'll come close to figuring that out today. And the two I'm now leaning more townish on (chamber, elvis) don't really have spectacular protown credentials this game, it's more of a gut thing for me.

I need to go read DGB's past games to see if her fake indignance sounds like her actual indignance. I've played with her 3 or 4 times, I believe, seen her from most every angle, and still don't have a good read on her tone. I seem to recall her shouting a lot and pointing OMGUSSy fingers both as scum and as town.

[MrBuddyLee]

elvis_knits is right about DGB's behavior being scummy though.

MBL's behavior makes sense if he is scum and knows DGB isn't.

FOS: xyl

for walking the tightrope. Take a stand on DGB--I'm trying to. elvis has, a few others have.

unvote, vote: pablito.

I'm getting no support for a fuller claim from DGB, and I hate lynching claimed power roles.

[MrBuddyLee]

I believe those were the next two leading votegetters, CTD. bluesoul and elias. But you're right, we don't have to choose between those two just yet.

bluesoul, can you honestly tell me DGB's softclaim doesn't weigh heavily upon you as you weigh it against her play?

DGB softclaimed, and I'd rather not lynch her. I pressed it as much as I could and it wasn't going anywhere. I'm not getting the claim that would make that decision easier. (Ask yourself if you'd vote DGB on the spot if she claimed anything besides vig, doc, cop, rb, tracker, which she would have to as scum.) Her play is disastrously scummy (zero scumhunting on her #1 target, for example) but that softclaim is eating at my brain and changing my vibe on her. We'd get a modest amount of info from a DGB lynch, tempered by the fact that she's so damned weird.

I'm not sold on an elias lynch. The case against him is basically "you're defensive and not scumhunting" which as he says is his meta as town or scum. elias is the "easy vote" right now, which is something to be wary of. We'd get a fair amount of info from an elias lynch--CTD and elvis, even bluesoul have taken strong stances and DGB is pushing him based on no evidence.

I can't envision bluesoul dead today. I got town vibes from him much of today, and granted the guy's a writer and could probably fake it, but I don't like to lynch people I have townish vibes on.

CTD's logic and proportion make decent sense, but his zeal seems a bit over the top and I have the feeling he's going to come up right on a lot of important things. Which makes me wonder if he's bearing inside info. I'm confused as hell and I don't see how people could have any kind of certainty right now. But as he says, he may just have better reads this game.

He knows if he's wrong as town on these things (especially elias) he'll take a lot of heat, and doesn't seem to mind. He's a very good player, and I want to give his kind of player an extra rough time to flesh them out. I do the same with Glork every game.

I've had creepy vibes from pablito, and PJ rubbed me way the wrong way. I'm rereading him right now, and considering a pablito wagon will also give information on elias, my vote is there for now.

[MrBuddyLee]

I already pointed out (1) DGB's non-case on elias. (And instead of trying to make a case on him even now, she blathers and pontificates, wasting our time.)

I pointed out (2) elias's weak case on DGB, and he's since come back with a better case against pablito.

Here are the rest of the current cases on people, summarized:

DrippingGoofball: 4 (Patrick, elvis_knits, bluesoul, MrBuddyLee)
Elias_the_thief: 4 (chamber, pablito, DrippingGoofball, Xylthixlm)
bluesoul: 2 (CrashTextDummie, Lowell)
pablito: 1 (Elias_the_thief)
elvis_knits: 1 (HackerHuck)

(3) Huck's case on elvis:

My biggest concerns came with her lack of interest in why Ether wanted her specifically to hammer. I am still wondering why that is, but Elvis never seemed to care and it wasn't like that comment slipped by her. I also was put off by the entire SK discussion. That didn't seem like anything that a pro-town player would even bring up. There's really no value in putting that information out there as a defence and if she were trying to attack MBL with those comments, it would only imply that he could be the SK. That just seems like a nice smokescreen.

I think there's a good chance that Elvis_Knits is scum, but I also think there will be value in knowing her alignment. It seems to be a pretty good day one lynch, just because of the information gained.

Elvis wants to get going on lynching DGB, but still votes for CDB because it’s better not to be a broken record. There’s almost a little OMGUS seeping out in these posts again. She’s also starting to treat Goofball like BattleMage used to be treated. It always makes me nervous when people are happy to lynch townies because they aren’t being useful.

Elvis: still there. I may have been a little more likely to let her slip away for another day had her wagon been derailed by a better wagon.

Elvis, looking at the tone of your posts, they appear to be written by someone who is desperate and is lashing out.


I think I explained why I think this above - Weak case plus lashing out = worried scum.

4/10, decent reasons but need more specifics and perhaps a broader case. Possibly time to pick an alternate lynch target, Huck?

(4) Lowell's case on bluesoul:

Goddamnit Xyl's so cool. I love him.

Unvote, vote DGB. I still don't think elvis is scum either.

unvote, vote bluesol. 982 is just weirdly nonchalant. He's faking it.

2/10. Pure gut read on bluesoul based on a single post? You owe us better than that, Lowell.

(5) xyl's case on elias:

Elias defends himself too aggressively.
unvote, vote: Elias

If playing scummy as town for meta reasons is valid play, then lynching people who do so for meta reasons is also valid play.

Vote stays.

An aggressive defense says that you're more worried about not being lynched than about finding scum.

If I had a vote for every time elias used his "meta" as an excuse, he would be lynched by now.

My experience in chat mafia has been that certain types of defensive behavior are scumtells. Not defense in general, but specific types of defense. That's what I see in elias.

In other words, he looks scummy and lynching him will give information. Sounds like a good case for lynching him.

Considering he just got into the game, 6/10. Can you elaborate on elias's "specific type of defensiveness"?

Part 2 to come. note to CTD: I get no pro-town points for this regurgitation.

[MrBuddyLee]

I found you, didn't I? I'm like a precision missile.

You're annoying. Your vote is on elias--make a real case against him or move your vote. I repeat, your play does not do justice to your intelligence level.

[MrBuddyLee]

DrippingGoofball: 4 (Patrick, elvis_knits, bluesoul, MrBuddyLee)
Elias_the_thief: 4 (chamber, pablito, DrippingGoofball, Xylthixlm)
bluesoul: 2 (CrashTextDummie, Lowell)
pablito: 1 (Elias_the_thief)
elvis_knits: 1 (HackerHuck)

(6) Patrick's case on DGB:

DGB: I don't get the timing of your bluesoul vote. The bit you quoted and called kwayzeee was something bluesoul had said more than once already, and he was only repeating it as part of defending himself. Why the hypereaction only now?

For the record, my question to DGB in my last post was to open up another potential line of discussion; I think her vote for you looks overhyped/fake, especially considering the delay I pointed out.

Your later justifications (with links) look very vague as well -- it's like you're trying to throw suspicion on him(PJ) without explaining any of it at all, and finding his post 28 helpful (which is the one that started alot of the suspicion of him) doesn't seem consistent with your future suspicion of him.

Anyway, DGB looks the worst to me with the attack on bluesoul. Unvote, Vote: DGB

I'm not entirely sure he was making a case against me, DGB, it seemed more like a balanced analysis of my play. If you think he was, and he pointed out so many good tells, why didn't you vote me? It kind of feels like you're asking for his approval, in a way.

A page ago, DGB, you said MBL made a great case against me that totally made you want to vote me, now you're saying bluesoul is the only person you're finding scummy at all? What exactly did you agree with? What changed your mind so quickly?

And what's OPPORTUNISTIC about it, Patrick???

I didn't vote. I didn't trust MBL. Show me the opportunism.

The fact that you vaguely agreed with his points without getting your hands dirty with any specifics, mostly.

They(DGB's appeals to emotion) sound kind of genuine to me, although I know DGB has a reputation of being a good actor.

I could see this as a scum gambit and I could see DGB using it, add my name to the list of players who want a full claim. Without one, I'd be willing to go with a DBG lynch on the chance she's gambitting, it's a reasonably informative lynch anyway and I think she's done some scummy things.

I'm going to vote: DGB. Needs to stop stalling on the claim.

Personally I haven't just decided she's town. The analysing of the game just put her below elvis in my suspicions.

Elvis is my top suspect. After that I think it's DGB, pablito, HackerHuck and elias.

How would you compare and contrast the hissy fits thrown by DGB, elias and elvis when run up?

DGB's I thought contained a hint of frustrated town.

I've actually been leaning back towards DGB again. Unexplained statements, yay. I'll get straight back to this game when my head doesn't feel like it's full of wool.

I feel better lynching DGB overall. I don't really have much to add to what I've already said about her; the main bit that makes me waffle over this vote is posts 291 and 293, which sounded kind of genuine to me and isn't something I've seen her do as scum before; I'm quite surprised that everyone seems to lean the opposite way to me on them. But. She seems a better bet to me than anyone else, at the moment. Vote: DGB.

I don't support the elvis wagon, DGB or elias (or really bluesoul or Xyl after the last few pages) would be better options IMO.

I'm not voting him at the moment because he's not my preferred lynch. I do think he looks significantly worse for his evasiveness and sketchiness around DGB.

7/10. Multidimensional, expresses curiosity. Pointing out 291 and 293 is significant--I think those should be readable too, and I also lean protown on them. He's voting DGB despite having several specific regrets, as do I. Weakness: he wanted a claim badly, but that plays no part in his present push. He seems to be voting her with complete disregard for the softclaim, and despite my attempts to drum up support for a fullclaim, Patrick didn't chime in with his support. Could be scum hoping to lynch a power role or SK.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL has just asked me point blank to "make a case" or unvote Elias. I find that extremely unsettling.

Most of us find scum by seeing WHO you choose to actually lynch, then examining the quality of your specific case against them.

Do you realize that if that's the criteria for finding scum, you've given us absolutely NOTHING to work with today? You've made not a SINGLE argumentative point against the guy you're voting for.

If you're a power role and that's why you're being so blockheaded, please take a moment to realize the rest of us DON'T KNOW YOU'RE A FUCKING POWER ROLE FOR SURE and have to evaluate you on other subjective criteria related to the quality of your arguments. Make cases please!

[MrBuddyLee]

DrippingGoofball: 4 (Patrick, elvis_knits, bluesoul, MrBuddyLee)
Elias_the_thief: 4 (chamber, pablito, DrippingGoofball, Xylthixlm)
bluesoul: 2 (CrashTextDummie, Lowell)
pablito: 1 (Elias_the_thief)
elvis_knits: 1 (HackerHuck)

(7) chamber's case on elias

I dislike how he went and did a reread of dbg to analyze her, but just used dgbs analysis(which I think was Bologna anyway) to look into Elvis. That other post on dgb was also clearly done in an attacking mind set not and inquisitive one. Over all its clear he decided who he was voting before doing either post and was just supporting it in thread, which I don't particularly like.

The problem here being that evaluating a case made on someone is different from evaluating that person.

I agree that's what elias did but its clearly not what he represented himself as intending to do. That's by far my biggest problem with him atm.

Unvote vote Elias cause hes annoying me.

I dont feel like lynching ek anymore though so Im on the biggest wagon Im willing to go threw with, I think

Pretty weak except for the initial point, which is a very strong point that chamber noticed before anyone else. 6/10.


(8) pablito's case on elias:

unvote, vote: Elias

There's lots of language in there that is overly defensive and just so so wrong. I wanna put even more pressure on Elias. "According to the town" - is much much different than saying "the two scummy players that everyone is analyzing" or "the two scummy players that people asked me to analyze". Elias almost sounds like he's saying that people are forcing him to pick one of the two, and then actually chooses. If Elias was truly genuine behind his vote he'd say "the two scummier players out there as how I said before".

I felt like you were really trying to help reignite the wagon on DGB (which in itself is fine), but it kinda distracted from momentum back toward elvis. That's why I found you defensive (of elvis).

This new stuff looks compelling, but I do question how genuine Elias feels. It's genuine frustration no doubt. But the chamber thing from him is kinda extreme.

But mostly Elias under pressure is revealing a lot. And the way he's being pretty nonspecific and is going by "previous agenda" before the last vote shows that he has a progression he's been following and doesn't really want to deviate too much away from. Smells scummy to follow his script. If he was town, I'd expect more from him to attack some of the people that are now voting him that were previously on DGB. He's way too defensive.

He also put himself up to a certain expectation and he's showing frustration because he himself can't meet that expectation. Elias never had to promise all these pbps or to actually continue with the game with the early absences, but he chose to do so. In a way, that could be that he's a bit anxious about playing in this game above all others, but there was something very very specific about his last posts that talked all about needing to wait for permission in his other game. No matter what the actual "outside event" was that caused him to keep posting his "will post content later" posts, the fact is that he wasn't really either telling us that he working on it in the meanwhile. It really sounded more like they were excuses for delaying and I think he was really waiting to see if others could give him ammo to deflect in the meanwhile. If the only thing he was waiting for was permission, then I don't see how he couldn't be working on a post int he background at the same time. Then again, he's done this before in the game, so I may excuse him for that.

But I kinda feel that he's focusing extremely on the past when he needs to focus on the present. That's scummy because the past has shown favor on him (we let him off for not-posting, he wasn't the focus, he wants to look back at DGB...etc).

Elias, also, I don't remember excusing you from using some awkward language initially. But whatever reasons I once had, none of it distracts from a lot of the scummy behavior lately. I think what I said earlier was "I understand where you're coming from, but it doesn't mean I see you less scummy". I really think it's the way that Elias is making the town responsible for his need to post certain things and he's been so reactive and less directive. Also "more posts and increased effort" doesn't necessarily mean you'll help us find scum. So whatever I said before Elias, there's more being added.

New thought as well. Elias said something about knowing he was going to vote DGB because he read, but he just hadn't put up his posts about it. That means he lacks a sense of urgency. I wish he would just post what he says (like what he is doing now) but before there was a big hesitance to make a single peep post that commented on anhything. Maybe that's because I am associating that style of response to e_k, who I am more and more seeing as less scummy. I wonder if there's an inverse relationship right now in my mind.

One of my favorite scumtells is a player referring to outside material. While playing a metagame is fine and conceptualizing others as such is standard - actually acknowledging and *pointing* to other games tends to be scummy for me. It's a way of deflection because the player's game is not very internally reliable. If a player does not have a cohesive gamestyle within that one specific game, a townplayer will try hard to put things through - a scummy defense is to point "well look over there, I was just like that too!". It's scummy because a person can pick and choose what to refer to. A metagame is based on memory and research as well but that's because the person decided to look there.

Elias has done this twice. Once in terms of his language something about the town standpoint. And I already attacked him on it. And now again here about scumhunting. Elias does not feel comfortable with his own game in this invitational to rely on it. While this can be overt frustration, it didn't start until he had to be on the defense. While his last post feels a little better, I doubt that I will be moving my vote for a while.

Elias, I direct this mainly to you. Your play is pathetic, but you should feel motivated to prove others wrong or if you truly do want to be lynched, then you could a little better than just trying to be a copycat. It's not your emulation of DGB that sucks, it's that you can't even fully do that. You did it haphazardly and ditto with your PBP posts. If the environment of this game is what's preventing you from saying something, then also try explaining why and maybe we can at least see something about those who attacked you later if you're lynched as town. You defend and you defend yourself, but you're attacking back from the wrong angle. You're attacking the fact that you're attacked, and it has little to do with the rest. Just please, give us something.

Elias' PBPAs were meant to be boring, long lists that were extremely esoteric.

It was made to help himself find scum, not to persuade others

. The layout of those posts were not easy to read and were not emphatic enough to really make anyone care about what he said. And that to me shows more evidence to his lack of scumhunting. At that point he tried to protray that he was looking, but he really wasn't. He seemed like he was going through the motions. That sounds scummy.

Elias is forcing me to read along with him rather than trying to explain in text what he thinks about these people the entire time. I'd much rather that he take the pertinent parts and explain it further. So while these posts may be "scumhunting" they did nothing to persuade anyone because these posts didn't look genuine or persuasive enough to sway someone. That's what I mean with the whole "scumhunting" thing.

Richly textured, multiple reasons for a vote. Are they procedural and easy, looking for a valid reason for a mislynch? Are they justifiable wagonning and mild coaching? A lot of this could be titled, "The Scolding of a Terrible Townie."

Note the one bolded part near the end where pablito almost seems to slip about elias's alignment, but then goes on to say elias is faking the scumhunting, so it's tough to say if it's actually a slip by pabs.

Regardless, the case ain't terrible and pablito's probably too valuable to lynch today if he's town. I think his case on elias is better than elias's case on pablito, but then again we've established that elias doesn't make cases as town either.

unvote

[MrBuddyLee]

What remains? CTD's case on bluesoul (it's not bad), elvis's case on DGB, and bluesoul's case on DGB.

I'm heavily conflicted right now. Both elias and DGB are playing like scum a lot but my gut tells me DGB is town and elias is really on the border for me. Yuck. I'll try to register a new vote tonight.

[MrBuddyLee]

So which scumbag contacted Xyl and asked him to replace into this game as their scumpartner?

Half joking...

[MrBuddyLee]

Sigh. I should just resign myself to very-last-minute deadline lynches.

Poor creampuff. Those one-liners you post must be so draining. /wrist

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: elvis

unvote, vote: MBL

unvote, vote: Bluesoul

It wouldn't shock me in the least if this is 0-for-3.

[MrBuddyLee]

Pussy.

vote: Lowell

[MrBuddyLee]

I'd vote for blue, elvis, or even elias (he's always scum when he does nothing early) at deadline. In that order.

What do you think of your wagon, Lowell?

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: elias

[MrBuddyLee]

I think we've confirmed that Ether/Lowell and elvis are very likely not aligned. If they are scumpartners, she had little incentive to pounce as quickly as she did.

Little oddities have me thinking Lowell, elvis, DGB, Patrick, Huck, chamber are town. If that's the case, then the scumteam lies in:

{elias, CTD, xyl, bluesoul, pablito}.

I'm probably wrong about one of the innocents, but that's where I stand right now, and where you should look tomorrow if I get gassed tonight.

In order, I'd be willing to lynch:

1. elias
2. xyl(CDB/IH)
3. pablito(PJ)
4. bluesoul
5. CTD(bird/Sarc)

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm trying to recall who I've eliminated as scumpairs based on their interactions:

elvis+Lowell
CTD+elias
CTD+bluesoul

I think. There may be more, but I seem to recall those. I think Huck also seemed to be genuinely getting into it with someone as well. And Patrick really seems to be trying to resolve the DGB issue in his brain.

I'm still puzzled as to why elvis brought up an SK earlier today. I was just thinking things through from Patrick's perspective, and I nearly cleared him as scum because he's curious about DGB's alignment. But then I realized that if scum fears an SK, or SK fears scum, then they're ALSO uncertain about everyone's alignment. And elvis was very quick to metagame the fact that there's an SK in another Minvitational.

Bottom line: a lot of my analysis relies on the fact that some people seem uncertain about each others' alignment. If there's an SK in this game, those aspects of my analysis go out the window. And it's curious that elvis brought up an SK--it's a major point that flies in the face of her seeming towniness.

[MrBuddyLee]

Odds of CTD being scumpartners with elias or Huck diminishing rapidly.

Scratch CTD+Huck.

[MrBuddyLee]

why aren't you voting her(elvis)? I am.

Is it because you're afraid of Xyl, who threatened anyone not voting for the current top contenders? What's your reason? Do you want to keep your buddy alive, but still look good after she turns up scum?

Now I'm positive you're not reading the game carefully, because xyl JUST said I'm the only person he sees as significantly pro-town. So why the fuck would I be afraid of him?

If you're protown, DGB, please read the damned game more carefully. I typically view carelessness as a scum trait, because scum are disinterested in the actual scumhunt and are just trying to make hay. I keep spotting things like this that make you look scummy in the face of your softclaim, and sooner or later I'm going to decide that I'm wrong about your claim being protown because there's just too much evidence to the contrary.

[MrBuddyLee]

DrippingGoofball

- She's the player who was most focused on, and it's kind of a pain because she's so tough to read. I wasn't impressed by her early game shenanigans (of particular note is her calling for more votes and wagons, while keeping her own vote close to the chest), I wasn't impressed by her implosion and baiting to be lynched, and I certainly wasn't impressed by her analysis, which was obvious BS. This is evidenced by the fact that she pretty much analyzed everyone under the pre-formed decision that e_k is scum, which just doesn't hold any ground as a serious approach. It's not at all surprising to me that she got a lot more offensive once she stopped being poked at. For any other player, this would be an open and shut case, but since it's DGB, I can't be sure. Still, that makes her a decent lynch in my opinion.

I have to reread DGB, but she's certainly not the most likely scum candidate in my mind, so there's a decent chance that lynching her is bad for the town as well

What happened here? Or are those weasel words on Oct. 8th and you never really changed your mind?

I went searching for CTD's thoughts on DGB because I recalled him being quite vocal on elias (and not thinking elias's scum). Sure enough, I found jack-shit DGB analysis from CTD, who is instead marching off into the wilderness attacking bluesoul.

CTD, I will reread your bluesoul case and bluesoul's posts, but the fact that you find our top two lynch candidates to both be likely town boggles me. What are your thoughts on DGB off the top of your head?

I don't think DGB is likely town. I said she's not the most likely scum, because I strongly feel that bluesoul is, and others rank higher on my list of suspicions as well (you, CDB replacement).

I didn't spend much time analyzing DGB, because I think it is a waste of time. I, for one, can't do it. I still don't think she is the best lynch, but it is one I can get behind if interest in bluesoul doesn't pick up. In that case, I'll move my vote to her to avoid a no-lynch.

(several paragraphs attacking bluesoul)

This looks a bit like deflection of a very serious accusation. CTD has spent a lot of time examining the other major candidates (elias, bluesoul, elvis) and none examining DGB. I understand the sentiment that one would find it difficult to analyze her play, but to some extent that's a cop out, AND you could at the least give your impressions of her softclaim. Have you even done that before? (Apologies for being lazy and not looking it up myself.)

I also don't get the sense that you really think I'm scum, considering you never delivered on your promised PBPA of me in time for it to have an effect on this day. If you're in danger of dying overnight, you'd really want to get that on record ASAP.

So maybe you're not feeling the urgency.

[MrBuddyLee]

If elvis can accuse MBL of derailing my wagon, perhaps I can accuse you(bird/Sarc/CTD) of derailing elvis' wagon? Just wonderin'.

Something is really weird here between elvis and DGB.
DGB, I voted you for the first time on October 22nd.
I was voting elvis from August 4th til September 4th. She accuses me of derailing your wagon to start hers, which is at least somewhat true:

There's something slightly insidious about the attacks on you(DGB) thus far.

But interestingly, here's exactly how it went down:

DGB (5) - petroleumjelly, bluesoul, Sarcastro, Patrick, elvis_knits
DGB softclaims.

Patrick unvotes. DGB at 4.

DGB pegs MBL as certain scum:

unvote, vote: MrBuddyLee - here's your scum on a silver platter. Maybe I don't want YOU to win after all, scumbag. DIE SCUM DIE.

Ether votes DGB. DGB at 5.
DGB asks to be hammered even though she's only at 5 votes.

elvis unvotes DGB

, votes Patrick. DGB at 4.

I still support DGB lynch, but Ether seems to think I should hammer. I'm perfectly willing to be hammer. So now I am off the wagon, feel free to bring her to L-1.

Patrick votes DGB, wants a full claim. DGB at 5.
Pablito wants a full claim from DGB, keeps his vote on her.

I still dont think dgb is a good lynch but i think its become clear enough that the rest of the town isnt getting away from it so

Unvote elvis Vote dgb

DGB at 6 (L-1)
DGB begins to post analysis.

chamber unvotes. DGB at 5.

DGB votes elvis

Patrick suddenly abandons his desire for a claim, unvotes DGB

, votes elvis. DGB at 4, elvis 3.

pablito unvotes DGB.

DGB at 3, elvis 3.

Ether unvotes DGB

, votes elvis. DGB at two, elvis 4.

elvis actually unvoted dgb and didn't revote until long after the DGB wagon was derailed. Granted, she said she was willing to hammer, but I didn't notice until just now that elvis actually TECHNICALLY derailed the dgb wagon with her unvote. (If Elvis hadn't unvoted, or had revoted after chamber, DGB would have been lynched!)

Shocking to me, twofold:
1) elvis accuses me of derailing the DGB lynch when she could more easily blame any of the four who rapidly bailed off the DGB wagon (or herself!) I was never even voting DGB! elvis, why do you somehow see me as responsible for derailing the DGB-wagon? Have you given serious looks at chamber, Patrick, pablito or Ether(yes elvis has on Ether), who were actually the ones who derailed the DGB wagon?

2) DGB alternates between thinking I'm town and thinking I'm certain scum. Even though I'm accused (wrongly and bizarrely, as it turns out) of derailing the DGB wagon. Even though I was never voting DGB when she was about to be lynched.

The accusations seem manufactured, since they don't really fit the available evidence.

Patrick, chamber, bluesoul, pablito, elvis, Sarc and Ether

all wanted a claim from DGB at one point or another. Add me to the list and you have 8. I imagine elias would like a claim from DGB as well, making 9.

Since:

1) DGB has softclaimed
2) 75% of the players in this game have asked for her to claim
3) She's a top vote-getter today

Everyone please post your current position on "Should DGB fullclaim?" and if you've changed your opinion since August (Patrick, pablito, chamber, bluesoul), please explain why.

[MrBuddyLee]

DGB thinks I'm scum for pushing her lynch, even though I'm not voting for her. Fact is, I'm not pushing for her lynch, but I do want a fullclaim to help clarify today's situation and POSSIBLY catch her in a fakeclaim. At this point, I have the barest of town tells from her and plenty of scumtells.

Except for her softclaim

, and I hate lynching claimed roles. That, and the way her wagon built and dissipated looked sketchy to me. But that could be her scumpartners having no fucking clue how to deal with a dreadfully scummy, yet claiming, DGB.

I've said several times that if she's scum, she'll have a devil of a time fakeclaiming, and if she's town scum already knows she's telling the truth (or SK, and either way they want her dead). So there's little or no risk to her fullclaiming.

Since her current claim is just about the only townish thing I've seen from her, I want that claim fleshed out so if she's scum she'll almost certainly be nailed by her fakeclaim.

Not to mention I'm befuddled why five people who wanted her to fullclaim didn't bite when I pushed for it recently. It's like some of them were waiting to see if momentum built for the fullclaim so they could take cover by chiming in. But since no one really called for it, they can sit back safely and help buy their scumpartner time to come up with a more informed fakeclaim tomorrow.

I don't see how a fullclaim would alleviate your doubts.

I think that if she's scum she'll have to choose a very safe safeclaim, probably something absurd that we'll spot as an outlier. Supersaint, gunsmith, something specifically chosen not to risk counterclaim. If she risks a more dangerous claim, she'll probably get nailed by the REAL claimant, whether it's today or some day soon. Right now, every power role is carefully reading DGB's post history to see if she's likely to try and claim their role. And THAT would be an optimal situation for us, but only if we nail her down now, before dead power shows up in the morning or in a last-minute claim today and eliminates one or more mines in her way.

[MrBuddyLee]

Retracted softclaim = meh. If you're town, I don't see why you'd do that. Scum likely already knows whether or not you're lying, and you'd only be retracting to save yourself from a nightkill. You're also going to confuse any potential protective/investigative/watching/vigging role.

Then again, ABR just did the same thing as town in another game. Then again, he's an idiot.

At this point, I think DGB and elias have an equal chance of turning up scum. ~45%. Let's see who Lowell and CTD choose.

unvote elias, vote: DGB

unofficial Vote Count: 7 to lynch.

Elias_the_thief: 5 (chamber, pablito, Xylthixlm, HackerHuck, DGB)
DrippingGoofball: 5 (Patrick, Elias_the_thief, elvis_knits, bluesoul, MBL)
elvis_knits: 1 (Lowell)
bluesoul: 1 (CrashTextDummie)

[MrBuddyLee]

Good luck, everyone, I'll miss this game.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey guys, nice work.

We had two scum dead to rights day one.

Patrick

broke the game wide open with his track of pablito, who was actually the right person to make the kill considering elias was heavily suspected.

elvis

got herself out of trouble nicely D1 by coming across sincerely.

Xyl

really got things right with minimal effort, lol.

bluesoul

was pretty on-target as well with his suspicions, and generally came across townish all game.

CTD

was hot and cold, but his activity was a catalyst for the communication that ended up clearing townies and drawing out scum. I think you guys kind of rushed the Huck lynch, but meh.

elias bused both his partners heavily, which probably would have worked if pablito hadn't gotten caught with his hand in the cookie jar. No scum really looked significantly pro-town at any point in this game. Oh, and for the record, there WAS something fishy about PJ on D1!

I meant what I said about an SK wrecking these invitational games. If I'd lurked and killed every night, it'd have gone like this:

D1: lynch, down to 11
N1: vig, scumkill, SK kill, down to 8
D2: lynch, down to 7
N2: scumkill, SK kill, down to 5
D3: lynch, down to 4
N3: game over

Doesn't really illustrate the skill of the various players fully, imo. If I'd been unnightkillable that'd have been great--I'd have had a chance to win as SK by not killing until the end, but it was more fun tracking down scum aggressively rather than lurking for safety's sake. I think I got killed because I was on elias's and pablito's tails, not because they thought I was an SK.

Interesting that most of the minvitational games had SKs. Even more interesting that town won all 4 games. I think our performance was clearly the most impressive. And across four games, it's strong proof that there is very little random about mafia--if you have talented people watching behaviors carefully, they WILL spot the scum.

Thanks for modding, Shea and OGML. Much appreciated.

ps. I fully intended not to kill anyone until the final night.

[MrBuddyLee]

Must be your down-home southern good mannahs shining through, Neil.

To our mod's credit, the power roles were appropriately weak and balanced by a scum power-role that had the potential to fit in like a glove. It's not Shea's fault that town power was played absolutely perfectly.

As much as people hate long day ones, this game again proves they're the key to successful scumhunting. I think meandering from DGB to elvis to elias to Lowell back to DGB gave us oodles of alignment info to work with.

[MrBuddyLee]

* DGB got herself in trouble by not scumhunting believably, but I think she covered her tracks to her scumpartners decently.
* pablito also didn't give off much in the way of connections--sadly he was forced to vote for one of his scumpartners (or himself, lol) for 98% of this game.
* I think elias gave away his scumteam with his inconsistency of accusations and attention to detail:

Note his accusations of PJ.. elias actually takes note that PJ wall-of-texts, referencing everyone BUT DGB. And calls that "weird". That's either VERY protown of him to read that carefully for a relationship between DGB and PJ, or it's scum reading paranoidly and spotting an error by their scumpartner that many others might not notice. Possible elias+DGB+PJ scum trio there.

Elias hits PJ pretty hard. Let's see if he maintains the pressure. We know he maintains it on DGB.

unvote, vote: elias

I just reread all of elias's posts addressing pablito. I suggest everyone else do the same.

Each time elias addresses pablito's attacks on elias, he finds pablito's attacks sorely deficient in many, many ways. You would think this would result in elias thinking pablito is scum and making a push to get pablito lynched for scummy fake-scumhunting.

But instead, elias's posts don't really attempt to pin down pablito's alignment at all. Only once (I believe) in 7 or 8 posts addressing pablito does elias actually say pablito's misrepresentations and weak attacks are actually "scummy".

Elias doesn't seem to be curious about pablito's alignment at all.

For the most part, it looks like weak distancing.

My gut has told me at various times that Patrick, bluesoul, elvis, Huck, Ether, chamber, CDB are town. ugh, I hate making blanket statements like that because each of them has done some scummy shit. But for some reason I feel like stating that.

That means our scum lie in:

DGB, elias, CTD, pablito.

The weird thing is, that implies that if DGB and elias aren't busing each other, then the scumteam is CTD+pablito+elias/DGB.

And I have to toss out props to Huck, who was fooled by DGB but had the rest of the scumteam dead to rights at the start of D2...

As for the recent events, I'm falling back into my thoughts from yesterday where Pablito and Elias might be feigning attacks on each other. Elias seems to be very adamant that Pablito is scum, yet I'm not seeing a big case there. On the flip side, Pablito throws out a big wall of text that seems to just be rambling on and doesn't really get to any point about what he thinks Elias' alignment is or why Elias is wrong. It seems like two boxers who are throwing a lot of punches at each other, but none of them are even close to hitting.

I did like where Pablito noted that we should be looking at Goofball's early wagon, although if he's scum then he would know whether looking there is a wild goose chase.

...And you lynched him. Haha!

[MrBuddyLee]

Yeah, Shea, the role PMs were fantastic. I shared mine with Adel at the start of the game, and I really hoped I'd get a chance to sink my fangs into someone's neck for her on night 5.