Mini Normal 1775 END!

[mhsmith0]

/confirm

[mhsmith0]

CONFORM

Clear scum tell

VOTE: Goodlordwill

[mhsmith0]

Alright, but actually. Way too defensive already. It's page 2. Hot damn.

Defensiveness isn't a scum tell.

Townies and scum don't want to get lynched either way. I'm gonna call out bad reasons regardless. This counts as one.

My understanding was the defensiveness WAS a scum tell. Not a "only scum do it" thing but something that leans scum more than town. Am I off base here? Admitted newbie (this is my third game and first participating in RVS) so maybe my theory background is weaker than I thought, so please do correct me if I'm mistaken.

[mhsmith0]

You are correct. I actually do believe defensiveness leans more scum. Especially if scum thinks they are

caught and shouldn't be.

I still disagree. I think townies are just as likely to attack bad cases against them. I've caught a lot go scum for this very thing when they push BS reasons for scum reads.

Out of curiosity, knight, have you caught scum for "BS reasons for scum reads" right of the RVS gate? Or is that a process that happens later on?

[mhsmith0]

My understanding was the defensiveness WAS a scum tell. Not a "only scum do it" thing but something that leans scum more than town. Am I off base here? Admitted newbie (this is my third game and first participating in RVS) so maybe my theory background is weaker than I thought, so please do correct me if I'm mistaken.

yes, I think you are a bit off. but I'm not going to pretend to be almighty and all knowledgeable.
...That being set, let me irritate everyone even more by *Drum Roll*....

VOTE: knightmare (L-2)

Non-serious vote to put knight at L-2 because... ?

[mhsmith0]

her trying to say I could be scum sheeping a partner in Smith

is a gigantic leap in logic for that stage of the game.

This part.
You asked me to show you the scum motivation behind your actions, i went and showed every possible scum reason and town reason i could think of, and showed why the town reasons werent possible, yet you spun it around as it being the sole reason i was pushing you.

@knight: I don't recall her saying or implying that you were my partner. Is it your understanding that sheeping means partners?

[mhsmith0]

I said it when i was mentioning possible reasons for scum to do what he did on 31

nevermind missed it

[mhsmith0]

@knight: This is my first time doing RVS so... I don't know? It does seem that you've been taking this surprisingly seriously, so I wonder if you're a bit too defensive.

But frankly, my scum hunting approach is to try and figure out sincerity, try and figure out who's fake scum hunting, etc. I find it difficult to parse out the BS that's town trying reaction testing and messing with people form the BS that's alignment indicative.

PS Why do you think there's scum on your wagon? Why not just a bunch of townies that thought it'd be fun/interesting/productive to build a quick wagon and see what happens? Do you think that the wagon was a serious attempt to kill you and bring D1 to a quick close?

PPS Did you notice that the only person who hasn't posted since the confirms went in was the scum I caught? Why abandon such a clear winning wagon?

[mhsmith0]

PPS Did you notice that the only person who hasn't posted since the confirms went in was the scum I caught? Why abandon such a clear winning wagon?

Red Flag here, the game hasn't been open for 24 hours, what's the correlation between time of posting and scumminess?

/ninja'd: yeah you missed it

/double ninja'd: Partially jokey, partially because I wanted to see what knight would say. Possibly that was a bit too obvious of bait for him to say something stupid over.

[mhsmith0]

PS: Based purely from a mathematical standpoint, it's already likely that there's scum on my wagon. Any random populace in the game of 4 or more players should produce at least one scum. I was up to L-2 at one point. Your question is a good one to ask though. The difference is in how I have been cased. Do you get the vibe that anyone who was wagoning me is doing it just for kicks? Or am I legitimately getting pushed as a serious scum candidate? When it's the latter, knowing my alignment, I now have to discern who is genuine and who is just trying to kill me because they need the mislynch. Can everyone who voted me be all town? Yes, but I strongly doubt it.

What I'm getting from this post is that you honestly thought (or at least heavily suspected) that it was a serious attempt to kill you. What in that stream of votes made you think that? The L-2 vote in particular was such flagrant bullshit that even I picked up on it.

[mhsmith0]

@madonna: is it your opinion that the wagon was a serious attempt to end d1 quickly?

[mhsmith0]

Also, I've got a question: Do we know anything specific about the setup? Like, do we know exactly how many mafia players to expect? Whether there could be an SK? Any particular roles that are guaranteed to exist?? etc..?

Not really, since the setup is fully closed, mafia members are usually about 25% of the playerlist more or less.

To my knowledge, no details are really known. There's a fairly wide list of roles that COULD be in this game but that's about all we're given.

PS Can someone clarify the case on Sayaka? I know she's planning to murder one of us tonight and frame someone else for it, but besides that?

[mhsmith0]

@madonna: is it your opinion that the wagon was a serious attempt to end d1 quickly?

This is a weird question and so is every instance where players in this game talk about serious votes. This is for everyone:

every vote, even in RVS, should be counted as a serious vote,

because you should absolutely always vote how you are feeling. If a player is voting someone, the voter is saying, "I want this person lynched," not, "No feelings or beliefs behind this." I can accept votes that okay a lynch on a lukewarm read, but only if we are nearing deadline and the voter does not have a better, stronger read on someone else. No one should be saying that their vote is not serious, and if they are, maybe consider voting them to help make them realize what a vote means.

I do not think a wagon on knightmare was an attempt to end the day early. I think it was something which could lead to ending the day, but if the mafia were on a mislynch, it was for the sake of a mislynch, not a day ending move.

I don't understand this. You seem to be saying that RVS is in fact not RVS at all. You also seem to be saying that it's not legitimate to toss on a vote simply as a reaction test as opposed to a serious read. My understanding is this runs contrary to board meta. Can you correct me if my assessment of board meta is off, or clarify why you feel this way?

[mhsmith0]

I do not care for your understanding of board meta, whatever the board meta is, or most arguments which categorize things as meta. Things which matter are things in this game.

"Things which matter are things in this game" is fluff. I'm trying to understand whether you're being contrarian or whether my sense is off. To the extent that you're being contrarian, I need to evaluate how you're being contrarian, and what I think about it.

You misunderstand. First, RVS exists. Simple as that. Second, votes count. An RVS vote counts as a vote. "Reaction/test" votes are still votes. I do not care what kind of votes they are once we are beyond RVS, and RVS votes need to be evaluated once we pass the threshold into serious discussion. Why? Because all votes are votes, and all votes matter.

Awesome. How do you propose to evaluate RVS votes? Are votes made SOLELY for the sake of reaction testing reasonable and legitimate? Consider what you'd said previously:

This is for everyone: every vote, even in RVS, should be counted as a serious vote, because you should absolutely always vote how you are feeling. If a player is voting someone, the voter is saying, "I want this person lynched," not, "No feelings or beliefs behind this."

So if your answer to my question is yes, I'm having a hard time seeing how your perspective holds together, and would like clarification. And if your answer is no, why aren't you openly suspicious of Almost50? You're aggressive on Sakura due to her behavior, presuming that votes are serious. But Almost50 displayed even more flagrant "I'm voting purely for reaction test purposes" behavior, AND he openly town read Sakura for the very same behavior you seem to find scummy, see 74.

Actually, let me be even more explicit on where I'm mentally going with this. You and A50 seem to have diametrically opposed reads of the same behavior of Sakura's. And neither of you seem remotely interested in engaging each other on that point. Why is this? Why are neither of you engaging with the other's theory (or even read as a whole, since A50 also added to town read at 152)? This seems like an obvious area of discussion from the both of you, given how substantial your disagreement appears to be. Why aren't you trying to engage with each other in thread?

[mhsmith0]

At any rate, I see no need to hang on to my RVS
UNVOTE: Goodlordwill

[mhsmith0]

@boon: why are you lurking? 185 read to me like you were going to be checking out of the thread.

[mhsmith0]

I don't have any reads yet. I don't have reasons for doing anything. I'm waiting for stuff to happen.

Do you have a rough estimate for when you'll be more dialed into the thread? Laziness early D1... dislike but shit happens. Laziness for all of D1... makes me not a happy camper.

As for actual content, I need to re-read some of this stuff myself. I'm sure I'll have that done by next week (more seriously, by tomorrow, maybe tnight).

[mhsmith0]

I'll catch up tomorrow. Busy past couple of days. Party tonight for Saint patty's, woot woot.

Warning.. warning.. Scummy vibes detected. Please beware and consider taking action.

The theory being?

[mhsmith0]

@boon: why are you lurking? 185 read to me like you were going to be checking out of the thread.

This is the only thing I don't like of mhs. I clearly said I would catch up tomorrow in 185.

Yes, but I read it as "I'll be back tomorow" and suddenly you're back playing defense. Lurking may have been the wrong word but hopefully that clarifies. Anyway longer post coming.

Ps where can I redeem boon points?

[mhsmith0]

The lack of interaction between a50 and Madonna on Sakura just seems bizarre given how opposed they say they are. Not sure which it points to worse but it really pinged my radar.

I'll +1 on boon thinking a50 rushing to l-2 is odd. He's voting to pressure... And it almost seems JUST to pressure. I don't see what HE thinks the Lowell case is or should be.

I also dislike 160. "Let's all focus on one thing at a time" feels lazy and an excuse for laziness. I want people to make organic decisions so we can hold them accountable for what they're doing, INCLUDING how they spend their time. The more decisions people need to make the more chances we can see scum screwing it up.

I'm comfortable joining this wagon.
VOTE: almost50

Ps boom anger: genuine or fake? This feels like a priority item for sorting him.

[mhsmith0]

...And wagons on newbs are fun, anyway.
...
so I'm moving to an easier, hopefully more hilarious, target.

Serious vote or joke/reaction test? I'm assuming the latter for now. I dislike playing games with votes but whatever.

[mhsmith0]

Madonna, I'll just be blunt about it.

I think you town reading Lowell for what he has done thus far this game is pretty sketchy. I'm not sure what that means about his alignment in conjunction with yours yet but it certainly doesn't make me feel good about you.

Toss in a50 and could that be scum team? Could it really be THAT easy? Would they really be THAT blatant? Worth considering I suppose. Easy answers make me uneasy but it's not like scum teams never screw up. Hmm...

[mhsmith0]

@lowell: Here's one from me. Was your vote on me serious or just joke/reaction testing? That's an easy question with an easy answer.

[mhsmith0]

Almost50:
1) Why did you town read ( 74 ) Sakura's vote pull? Most people who AI-read that moment (one way or the other) gave actual reasons. You just dumped a read on the table and walked away.

2) You've hopped on bandwagons for "pressure", and in neither time was there any actual scum reading involved. 70 explicitly stated that you were NOT scum-reading knight for his defensiveness... but you voted him anyway.
And 162 was hopping on a bandwagon as a vote whip (defined on my other site as "

The behaviour of voting for a player to encourage them to answer a question, participate, or otherwise engage in debate."

), as opposed to expressing any kind of genuine scum read.

Why would anyone feel much "pressure" if there are non-genuine votes dumped on them and only at L-2? Especially early in D1 on a board that isn't crawling with potentially hammer-happy newbies?

PS Extra demerits for ANOTHER vote whip (or empty "pressure" vote) in 82, this time on Sayaka.

3) You were scum reading boon in 211... what's your theory here? That read seems lazy to me. 214, disliking

I don't have reasons for doing anything. I'm waiting for stuff to happen.

might be a case... but aren't you basically doing the same thing? Other than almost randomly hopping between wagons, I read your ISO and see really not much of any substance or effort.

4)

Or maybe it's because I don't like naked voted to begin with

5) Do you see the above list? Do you feel pressured? Even though you're not even at L-2? Almost like you don't NEED a large wagon to create pressure and demand accountability? If so, hopefully you see why I'm so unimpressed by your "let's just create substance-less wagons for 'pressure'" position. Now answer my questions, and then put enough actual effort into scum hunting to make me rethink my scum read on you.

PS @lowell: remember 84? Is it fair for me to interpret you as "let me put together a lazy, half-assed case on some newbie to look like I'm helping"? Because that sure seems scummy to me. I'm still happy sitting on the A50 wagon but I find myself really disliking your contributions.

[mhsmith0]

@lowell: Let me see if I have your case right.

1) Your tone is affected.

2) You're sensitive about pushing people to L-2.

3) 1 and 2 are true, therefore you're scum.

Is that it? Is there more? That seems like a lazy/junk case even if both 1 and 2 are true (which I guess I might as well argue against since you say you're taking it seriously).

[mhsmith0]

PS For #1, please point me to the SPECIFIC posts where you think my tone is affected. I'm not going to re-analyze my own posts for whatever you think are tone-tells. Put in actual effort here.

[mhsmith0]

1) Was hoping for a lowell clarification, but whatever.
This is my third mafia game, and my first time doing RVS (my first game was on a different site with oddball mechanics in games, and icebreaking posts that typically focus on that instead of RVS, and my second game is on this site [ongoing], and I subbed in post RVS). My posts in that phase (or about that phase) reflect a lack of confidence in my understanding of standard RVS theory and practice. I have no idea why it makes sense to read much into that. Similarly, it's my first mini normal here, so that's where 154 came from. Because I DON'T know all the rules, and it's entirely possible I didn't know something important.

Other than that, I guess you're looking at 138? If so, that was a specific question to Madonna to get a clarification on her position, since reading the knight wagon was her main contribution to date. I don't see this tone as affected becuase I'm trying to be clear and explicit about what SHE was thinking.

2) Regarding L-2: I showed "sensitivity" to L-2 at 73 and 241. In both of those, if you bothered to read them, I showed sensitivity to a SUBSTANCE-LESS rush to L-2. Do you see the difference? Do you see how my position depends on the SUBSTANCE of that L-2 vote? And how in both cases A50's L-2 vote read empty to me? And if you do see this, do you see why I think your argument here (that I'm just being sensitive to L-2) is lazy at best, reductionist and manipulative at worst?

PS: I read your vote at 276 as a possible joke/reaction test because it was lazy, empty, and shitty. I did you the courtesy of assuming you were making the vote for some kind of "reaction test against the newbie" reason. Because your vote and stated reasons were so bad that I couldn't imagine you were actually being serious. Well, that and the fact that I wanted to remove your potential "oh I was just reaction testing" defense/back-out BEFORE engaging with your case.

PPS

This guy needs some votes

Maybe some of the votes that are currently sitting on you, perhaps?

PPPS Impress me with your response or I'm switching my vote. You and A50 are my top two scum reads right now, and I'm comfortable with lynching you first. I'll give you the courtesy of getting one free shot at a response before I push you to L-1. If I don't hear back in a couple of hours, that's where my vote is going.

PPPPS Having fun yet?

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: mhsmith

Smith is scum. Lowell might be town.

Smith is scum because ____?

Lowell might be town because ____?

I'm especially curious about the second. You were scum reading Lowell consistently in your posts, but now that the wagon looked like it was nearing L-1 and turning really serious you wanted out and are now town reading Lowell. You give no reason for this, just a flat stated town read (cushioned by a "might" modifier). This just SCREAMS tactical voting. Justify your vote and your reads. Yes, I know. Actual effort and transparency. It's a drag but unfortunately it's what the town needs to see in order to actually evaluate you.

[mhsmith0]

PS @ chilledtea:
143 had you town reading me. Please clarify to the board what your original town read of me was based on, and what changed your mind to go from town read to scum read. You've flagrantly flipped reads on two players (lowell and me), without the slightest bit of justification.

[mhsmith0]

The nonsensical reasons you have given make me feel that you don't understand the context under which certain actions took place in this game. It almost felt like you are trying to get reasons for your scum read by going through the thread rather than stating your actual feelings.
Lowell could be town because he said the same thing about you.

1) "The nonsensical reasons". WHICH "nonsensical reasons"? And why are they nonsense?

2) "You are trying to get reasons for your scum read by going through the thread rather than stating your actual feelings." You mean like looking for evidence and holding people accountable for what they say, and being clear on WHY I am reading people as scum, instead of just hand-waving "oh my gut says town", "my gut says scum". How in that world is THAT scum-indicative?

Seriously, why not just go all out and say "MHS is trying to scum hunt, therefore he must be scum"? Or do you think I'm fake scum hunting? And if the latter, where is the EVIDENCE for me fake scum hunting? Note that "my gut says you're fake scum hunting" is NOT something I consider an acceptable answer.

3) Lowell could be town because he agrees with your position? Seriously, that's it? What about all the stuff you scum read him for before?

[mhsmith0]

@A50: wrt 341 Thank you. My immediate reaction is that I think that makes sense, but I need to let that rumble around my head for a while. Ditto your other responses.

@Sakura: My intuition is that "trying to achieve town unity" is null, not town. I think there's a lot of room for scum to hide behind "town unity" since they have to make fewer decisions, and can potentially fake their way into that "town unity" group. And I'd read A50's efforts along those lines as fake. I owe him a re-read given his responses.
PS If you think my theory here on "town unity" efforts being null is bunk, please let me know why. I've put effort into learning theory, but it's entirely possible I've missed something important.

@chilled: Sigh...
1) I still don't see the "nonsense" you alluded to earlier. "They are nonsense" is restating your assertion, not providing support or evidence. Try harder.

2) Vote whipping by itself isn't what I scum read him for. It's about the context. In this case, my context was that I was reading A50 as consistently presenting empty votes to the group. Seriously, this is spelled out in 326. You're being reductionist by accusing me of scum-reading A50 just for vote whipping. Try harder. Tell me what else you think is nonsense.

3) It's not surprising that people can change their reads of me. It IS surprising that someone would drastically change their read of me without spelling out why. Seriously, here's how I'm currently reading your progression:

332 I'm bailing on the lowell wagon and scum reading MHS because reasons
336 I'm scum reading MHS because he demands that I spell out my reasons. Also, his reasons are nonsense failing to understand context.
343 Again, it's nonsense because it doesn't understand context. Okay fine, here's one example.

And in fact I'd say that your accusation of my voting A50 for vote whipping is a GREAT example of something that's [post=nonsense because they fail to take context into consideration]nonsense because they fail to take context into consideration[/post]. Literally, the context was spelled out in that post. I was explicit on my reasoning. You might DISAGREE on my reasons, but if you do, be explicit on that.

4) You've said that multiple things I've done are "nonsense". Your example is totally unconvincing. Since you've apparently identified mulitple such things, you owe me and the board the rest of them.

/ninja'd: so now you un-vote me for something that came out before your lazy vote on me to boot
But even better, you're happy to be back on the Lowell wagon! Town lean for him retracted? Dare you provide us with your reasons why?

[mhsmith0]

Actually...
UNVOTE: Almost50
I'd by lying if I said I town read you right now (I still lean scum on you), but I'm liking your response (and the reasons you gave for town reading Sakura's behavior I think make sense, although I still wish you'd just said why earlier), and the stench of scummy bullshit from Lowell and Chilledtea is just too strong. My vote belongs on one of them, now I just need to decide which one.

[mhsmith0]

@Sakura: Essentially, the problem I had with A50 was that I couldn't tell if he was actually scum reading lowell or just "vote and see what happens", and the latter read to me like non-genuine / tactical voting, which I considered scummy behavior. Given the context described, I'm rethinking that interpretation.

As far as Madonna goes, on 182 I was questioning whether her perspective holds together. She seemed to be saying that reaction test votes weren't legitimate. But if that's the case, then why wasn't she doing anything about A50 explicitly doing just that? I read her behavior as inconsistent with her stated mindset/theory. And I found that inconsistency to be suspicious. Not that the theory itself was necessarily wrong. She subsequently answered that question at 204, and while I didn't find the answer super convincing, I did think it was plausible.

PS My intuition is to agree with you that if things stay chaotic indefinitely, that probably helps scum. But if we're just unifying artificially early D1, I'm not sure that's as helpful as you think it is. Then again, seeing what happened when the lowell wagon built steam gives a lot of credit to your theory.

PPS I don't mind the length at all, it helps me understand where you're coming from.

PPPS Any comments on the interactions between CT and me just now? It felt non-genuine from CT, both the vote on me and the sudden "never mind I'm back on lowell" shift (I need to take a step back and re-evaluate if I'm being fair to CT there, along with a larger re-read, before I pursue things further, but that's my current take). If the idea is to see what happens when the lowell wagon gets serious... well, CT's behavior was certainly the first thing that happened. And I definitely feel like that needs to be evaluated.

[mhsmith0]

Actually...
UNVOTE: Almost50
I'd by lying if I said I town read you right now (I still lean scum on you), but I'm liking your response (and the reasons you gave for town reading Sakura's behavior I think make sense, although I still wish you'd just said why earlier), and the stench of scummy bullshit from Lowell and Chilledtea is just too strong. My vote belongs on one of them, now I just need to decide which one.

All this guy can do is OMGUS. Look, we all want to believe newb is town and can be taught, but it's clear his motivation is self-preservation rather than scumhunting. That he does the former while pretending to do the latter is not a bonus.

Clarify your theory about how I'm acting for self-preservation. The only vote on me is you. CT voted and then unvoted (but who knows, maybe he'll randomly come back?), no one else seems to be scum reading me, and multiple players (off the top of my head, boon and knight) have been town reading me. That you think I'm currently in any meaningful danger of being lynched is either lazy or intentional misreading. In neither case am I impressed.

Also, clarify how I'm pretending to scum hunt. What have I done that is non-genuine or otherwise indicative of fake scum hunting? Evidence is helpful. Unsubstantiated aspersions are not.

PS @Everyone else: this reads to me like an advance "an MHS vote on me is just OMGUS and therefore illegitimate" play. Color me unimpressed.

PPS Per 330, I'm not impressed with your response. And I'm switching my vote. VOTE: Lowell. I'm also satisfied with a CT wagon.

This is now at L-2 again.

[mhsmith0]

yeah, because it's dumb. honestly no one believes I'm scum, they just think "meh, he's sort of annoying, and better him than me... sure I can live with that."

Not to mention that two of the five votes on the bus (knight and me) are apparently just OMGUS

More seriously, there are reasons people are voting you, and being dismissive and reductionist about those reasons is the opposite of engaging with things honestly. Is there a town reason for this approach? The scum reason for it seems obvious.

@Boon: Is there something specific about the wagon you don't like? The reasoning behind the votes? The popularity of the bus? CT's "off then back on" move? Lowell's behavior somehow reading town? etc.

[mhsmith0]

@boon: Theoretically I like that point! Easy fall guys are always too easy for comfort. HOWEVER, what makes you think that Lowell is "easy fall guy" instead of "flailing caught scum guy"? I feel like there should be something meaningful that suggests one of the following:

1) Lowell is dumb rather than scum (or some other mislynch bait indicator from his play)
2) There are people on Lowell who are BS'ing their lazy cases
3) There are scum sitting on the sidelines ready to join the lazy lynch

Which of those things do you think is the case? "Oh it's too easy" is a starting point of an argument. Move past that and start working on WHY you think it's too easy. Maybe start with "for no real reason"? Which among the votes on Lowell sounds fake or lazy to you?

[mhsmith0]

I don't know; do what you want with the wagon, I'm not going to be a part of it, though.

Dislike. If you don't like the wagon, take a meaningful stand against it. Try and convince us we're wrong. Show us you're invested in what happens with the D1 lynch. "meh I don't care do whatever you want just don't blame me" does not make me a happy camper. Not at all

[mhsmith0]

I actually find the "here since 2006" argument shades against the "easy fall guy" point. I would think he'd learn how to avoid that by now. I don't mind re-reading the cases against Lowell to see if anything looks odd, but I feel my case against him is solid. His behavior has to me reeked of scum, not of lazy mislynch bait.

[mhsmith0]

@Sakura: is that at me or Boon? I'm thinking Boon but please let me know if you're talking to me. I just looked at your ISO and I don't think I saw the town case against the Lowell lynch. 353 was against the A50 vote, 342 was mainly "I find most of the scumreads nonsensical" without seeming to be Lowell specific.

[mhsmith0]

@SH: Yeah, 353 (along with A50's own posts) helped convince me my vote shouldn't be on that slot (and the Lowell/CT convinced me that my vote needed to be on one of their slots instead). Fuller re-read of A50 to come at some point, but I feel like Lowell and CT are the priority items. I wanted to make sure you weren't saying you'd had a town case against the Lowell vote, because that would have been jarring.

wrt 372: none of those three have really been posting enough to leave a strong impression. IMO good reason not to want to end D1 early. Not (IMO) good reason to think that Lowell is the wrong wagon. That said, from the limited data so far:

Expedience - I like what he's been doing. I feel like I can understand his thought process and it seems genuine. He's pushing on people, he doesn't seem lazy or BS'ing, etc. Town lean, limited by "it's early D1 and he hasn't really posted all that much yet"

Sayaka - not quite as sure for her. She has opinions and isn't afraid to share them, and I feel like she's sharing enough of her thought process that I can eventually sort her (not there yet though). I'm curious what she thinks of Lowell after his more recent BS, as well as everything else that has happened since she was last here.

Texcat - her posts feel... light. On content, on meaning, on depth. Her 255 basically made the same argument as I later did in 326 but without really getting into WHY A50's bandwagon-hopping seemed like a problem. I also really don't get her 265. Reason #1 is posted along with an "oh wait nevermind", and reason #2 seems quickly contradicted by 275. And the whole thing was "lol jk" by 314. Nothing even close to a smoking gun here IMO, but I also see nothing particularly confidence building and I don't mind more pressure on this slot.

PS I'm also not sure why 271 is true. Obviously if you tunnel someone for a really long period of time ignoring everything else, that can be problematic, but I'd like to think that tunneling in reasonable quantities can be a good thing. Invest in a case, build it, see where it takes you, and get to a point where you have a more meaningful read, and everyone else has the data they need. Why am I wrong?

PPS Boon is moving down my list from his last few posts. I'm not happy with him right now.

[mhsmith0]

@Boon: give me a reason to doubt the Lowell lynch. "Bad feelings" isn't doing it for me. Is there scum on this wagon? Are a bunch of townies just wrong? Convince me (or everyone else) if you're feeling really bad about the lynch. If it's helpful, current voters are (I think):

Garmr, knightmare, Almost50, chilledtea, mhsmith0

and Sakura Hana was on for a while and is now back off.

That's six people who are really down on Lowell. Maybe one of us is BS'ing a weak or insincere case? Is there a "you look sincere but here's why your reasons are wrong" case to be made? I don't need you to tell me right this second; if it takes some time for you to figure it out that's fine. But "bad feelings" is not an acceptable answer for me. Too much room for scum to sneak their way out of a wagon they know is bad, or to try and derail a wagon they know is good, without really having to commit to putting any rationale down.

[mhsmith0]

Trying to intellectually deal with Lowell as non mafia... I'm just really struggling to see it. Maybe he's a jester and actively trying to get lynched? Does that make any sense here?

[mhsmith0]

@knight/Sakura: I suspected as much but wasn't sure. Myths for clarification.

@lowell: you're at l-1. Time to mount a SERIOUS defense against your charges. No more hand waving bullshit.

[mhsmith0]

Intent to hammer first or just hammer?

[mhsmith0]

Boon has stated that he "has bad feelings" about this "easy lynch". If he hammers then he's flagrantly full of shit.

As for me, I think it's the right lynch. I'm not leaving just because boon or someone else may randomly do something stupid.

[mhsmith0]

@exp: Very well, I'm willing to go along.

UNVOTE: lowell.

Intent to vote, intent to hammer if someone else votes Lowell (notice will be re-given at that time).

Lowell is technically back to l-2 but is essentially at l-1.

[mhsmith0]

Goodlordwill and I are both town.

Because...? Of 122/3 or is there more?

[mhsmith0]

Boon has stated that he "has bad feelings" about this "easy lynch". If he hammers then he's flagrantly full of shit.

As for me, I think it's the right lynch. I'm not leaving just because boon or someone else may randomly do something stupid.

To be fair, I've hammered after saying worse as town.

If he's really at L-1, I suggest one of you idiots unvote or Boon may hammer.

I mean, I've already stated why this is crap. Expidence is leaning scum for me. If Lowell does end up flipping scum, might be worth looking into as a last resort bus/trying to derail it a little. TownLowell I'd probably start town reading Exp from that, though.

Walk me through how exp is scum for this given 413. You're explicitly admitting his "boon may dumb hammer" point is correct!

[mhsmith0]

I don't think your reasoning is bad or anything. Just noting behavior.

VOTE: texcat

@mhs - I posted when he was at L-1. I would have done it, no second thoughts. I posted my hammer line I say with every hammer I do too. "Did someone say L-1?" That is the post I always hammer with. And I didn't.

Hmm, fair enough. Then again I've never played with any of you. So I'm ok for now holding it as an explicit intent to vote/hammer.

And to clarify: I WILL revote Lowell unless persuaded otherwise, likely in about 24 hours. Even if it's a hammer. Even if Lowell decides he has better things to do than defend himself. Official warning given.

[mhsmith0]

Says the person who could have hammered but chose not to

[mhsmith0]

INTENT TO HAMMER LOWELL. YOU HAVE NO MORE THAN 24 HOURS TO REVEAL/DEFEND YOURSELF. OFFICIAL WARNING.

[mhsmith0]

I think it's plausible. Getting in on the lynch because she doesn't want to be outside it. Pretty blatant if so. Then again WIFOM.

[mhsmith0]

@boon: 24 hours. Not long to wait. And you know I'm up for it anyway. But I want to see what Lowell has to say for himself, and we have some people who have yet to much weigh in on his case that we need to hear from before it goes final. No need to quick hammer.

[mhsmith0]

1) would you be willing to policy lynch a dumb hammer?
2) if not, then isn't it better to make sure people have a chance to weigh in?

Ps Madonna put us back at l1 and has expressed clear preference for quick hammer. We may well see a quick hammer yet.

PPS in case you can't tell, I don't love gambits generally or am much good at them. Eventually that may change as I get experience, but the idea of policy lynching a dumb town quick hammer on day two makes me uncomfortable. Especially since I think we already have some idea of what Lowell's flip might tell us.

[mhsmith0]

@exp: you may well be right about things going overly fast. Otoh we sure do seem to be getting strong takes on the matter with it suddenly turning into crunch time.

Ps @mod: updated vote count please

PPS I may be a dumb hammer. But I'm not a dumb quick hammer (which is what I thought you were primarily getting at). 24 hours is plenty of time I think. Especially since I honestly believe in the lynch. I'm willing to take d2 heat for it if I'm wrong. My reasoning is explicit and I believe in it.

[mhsmith0]

Because "oh we should quickhammer this guy because other people are scumreading him" is absolutely terrible.

+1

[mhsmith0]

To be clear, I do not care for this wagon, but if you guys are so convinced of your arguments, well, here is your chance to put your vote where your feelings are. L-1 is not just for pressuring the lynch candidate. I do not mind settling the wagon's read.

"Fuck it I don't care who we lynch today"
Wow.

[mhsmith0]

Now I'm REALLY glad I went along with exp's suggestion. With intent to hammer on the board, a quick hammer would I think be very telling.

[mhsmith0]

You do realize that we have currently used 2.5 days out of the 14 that we have available?

I'm not usually one to highly value day time, but this is fucking ridiculous.

I don't have strong feelings about Lowell being scum, in general I'm lost and really would like to use more of the time.

To be fair, we are a very active group, and I believe we've accomplished much more in these two days than most do in ten.

I can think of one relevant comparison where you're correct

[mhsmith0]

...
I do appreciate people waiting for his claim before lynching him, but I do not think he needs this pressure.

So you don't want him pressured but you're fine with him dead? I... I don't even know where to start engaging this logic.

[mhsmith0]

@knight - Okay, I get you want Lowell lynched today. I don't. So I'll contribute to a different wagon.

@exp - I disagree with your negative info. There will be more info regardless. To be honest, Lowell at this point is a good information lynch regardless of alignment.

If Lowell is town it means ______
If Lowell is scum it means _______

Any theories? There have been interactions but which strike you as alignment indicative and why?

[mhsmith0]

And that question is valid for all, not just boon. <24 hours until hammer. For those solidly on Lowell wagon, let's get thinking on what things might mean. For those against the wagon, let's see support for a counter wagon or attacks on the wagon itself.

[mhsmith0]

If Lowell is town, exp is town.
If Lowell is scum, I'd like to think exp would also be scum.

If Lowell is town, madonna's hardcore scum.
Actually, I don't see Madonna and Lowell scum together. Madonna going for the quick lynch doesn't make sense unless it was a ploy.

Could Madonna ploying as a bus make sense? With a "at least I was right" or "I hope wagon derails" aim?

And why must exp alignment be same as Lowell?

[mhsmith0]

So are we lynching Lowell or not, people? Not saying I called it, but there you go.

Called what? There's <24 hours until hammer time. A little patience goes a long way.

[mhsmith0]

...
There has been 200+ posts since I last argued anything in defense of Lowell. My opinion could have changed since then, surely.
...

Surely it could have, but did it? Are you i fact scum reading Lowell now? And if so, why? What is YOUR case on Lowell?

[mhsmith0]

... It's just like he wants to rest a vote where a wagon won't build and I want to know why smith?

Why what? I'm sitting at intent to hammer Lowell. Do you mean the a50 wagon I abandoned a while ago?

[mhsmith0]

Reread Lowell's ISO. Still love the guy.

I am not voting Lowell because I think he is scum.

I think other players voting for him are either being obtuse or are scum and both of those groups need to put up or shut up, as the French say.

If you are convinced Lowell is scum, I am helping so fret not, team.

Once again... Wow.

[mhsmith0]

@a50: walk me through expedience. "I don't want a quick hammer" seems reasonable to me. What pings your radar there?

@garmr: so your operating theory is that he knew he was toast and was distancing? I actually see how that could make sense. I read it more as "target the newbie" than anything else... But obviously "Nuh uh" isn't likely to convince you. Feel free to flesh it out before day end, long with any other "Lowell as scum means ___" theories you think make sense.

[mhsmith0]

Lowell (6): Garmr, knightmare, Almost50, chilledtea, Sakura Hana, Madonna (L-1)

So let us be clear about this: all of these people are voting Lowell. Apparently I am the only scummy one despite my townread of him and my insistence that this wagon stop. Since it has not, I am being a team player (or busser!) and helping all of these towny townspeople. Did I get that right?

You insist the wagon stop while voting for it. It seems you're going with the "I'm an idiot" excuse.
Ps walk us through what you're ACTUALLY hoping to accomplish here. Just on the off chance you're being dumb town instead of dumb scum.

[mhsmith0]

We're going around and around on Madonna. Not sure it's getting us anywhere. She's stone walling and isn't going to stop. Sorry but that's where we are. Lowell today, Madonna tomorrow unless people are serious about the counter lynch.

Ps if someome wants to link the lowell votes that'd be cool. If no one does I might later tonight.

[mhsmith0]

[...

I had hoped to call a bluff, but people seem intent on following through with this nonsense. I do not have time in the day to manage this.
...

So tell us what you learned from this gambit of yours, since you were NOT in fact able to "call a bluff". And while you're at it, tell us what justified the obvious risk of a quick hammer on someone you're sure is town.

[mhsmith0]

Knightmare, I think the initial wagon was better than the one we are seeing, but ideally Sakura Hana.

Why her? Pretend like you think I'm an idiot and you need to actually spell it out for me.

[mhsmith0]

@lowell: Here's one from me. Was your vote on me serious or just joke/reaction testing? That's an easy question with an easy answer.

Are you kidding? It's page 14. My vote is legit. Your playstyle is a put-on and you're scum.

Fucking hell, this is dumb shit

from mhsmith0

. Even joke/reaction votes are fucking votes. They may still exert the same pressure because all votes do the same fucking thing. Unless you fucking preface them with "for reaction purposes only" and can guess the voter will retract.

Actually it wasn't. I found his vote to be flagrant bs, so I wanted to address that possibility first. For all I knew, he WAS just reaction testing the newbie, which I'd have been unhappy about but is at least an explanation.

Once he said it wasn't, I engaged more seriously with it, since "I was just joking/reaction testing" had, by his own words, been eliminated as a backout explanation. How was this anything but obvious?

[mhsmith0]

@madonna: I WAS pretty obvious about where I was going, but I was clear I was looking at two spots. 330 was really where I made it clear. I said I'd give him a chance to impress me with a defense and that otherwise he got my vote. I found his post utterly crap, and there went my vote. Reducing my vote to "it's just OMGUS" is at absolute best lazy and obnoxious town. And way more likely desperate scum who simply has no defense.

Not really loving the chainsaw defense you're using either tbh.

[mhsmith0]

@lowell: Madonna looks good because_____?

[mhsmith0]

@all: The Lowell wagon is back down to L-2. I still plan on re-attaching my vote tonight barring a GOOD reason not to. And I am explicitly on record as being willing to hammer if he's at L-1 before I vote. I would REALLY like to see people who haven't really weighted in on things to comment on the wagon. Beyond that, Lowell had a chance to role claim or defend himself and chose not to bother to do anything other than toss in a seemingly random town read of madonna. I'd like him to come back and actually do something, but if he doesn't, he doesn't.

PS Just in case I am back to being in hammer position tonight, I'll try and have some more detailed thoughts on things other than just Lowell before I vote.

[mhsmith0]

I think that both Lowell and Madonna are deeply suspicious on their own. I'm not sure that any result for either one especially strengthens or weakens the case against the other. I feel like that gets into WIFOM territory all too easily. Then again, I could easily be wrong, and would welcome a good case to be made as to why I'm wrong.

PS I read "good" as "I'm town reading her". IMO I'm more suspicious of Lowell (town reading her w/o a reason, reinforcing 358) than I am of her from his note.

/ninjad @exp: see 330 for a fuller explanation of my reaction. His vote was awful. So I wanted to engage with the possibility it wasn't serious. I thought that was reasonable.

[mhsmith0]

I am OK with both madonna or lowell lynch today. At the moment the vote is on Lowell, but if you decide I am ok with Madonna. She is objectively scummy.

You should vote Madonna because I'm in a neighborhood with her and she scumslipped, I'm also a daycop and scum with her.

Clarifying questions:

1) What was her scum slip?
2) Explicit day cop role claim and result or am I misreading? It reads like explicit claim. But I want to be 100%, not 98%.
3) Why not wait until the Lowell wagon went through to post day cop, and just rely on the neighborhood scum slip to push a Madonna lynch? Why out a PR seemingly uneccessarily? Do you think the Lowell lynch is bad?
4) How common is it to be BOTH in a neighborhood and day cop? Please remember this is my first "normal" game so apologies if that's a stupid question.

[mhsmith0]

Is Lowell a bad wagon? Or is Madonna just a better one? I'm willing to think on switching,but I'm not there yet. Really liking the lowell wagon still.

[mhsmith0]

I am OK with both madonna or lowell lynch today. At the moment the vote is on Lowell, but if you decide I am ok with Madonna. She is objectively scummy.

You should vote Madonna because I'm in a neighborhood with her and she scumslipped, I'm also a daycop and scum with her.

Ok I get it. He's saying
1) neighborhood with her
2) day cop
3) AND scum buddies

I.e. He's totally joking. And I'm a bit of an idiot for missing it.

[mhsmith0]

Can you define your I ended time frame? "Now" as in 24 hours? 2 hours? Something else?

[mhsmith0]

12 hours works for me. I'd like other members of his board to give thoughts before hammer. Most notably sayaka; I'm not scum reading her for limited availability but really want to know what she thinks, including if she's still town reading Lowell, BEFORE we see flips.

Spoiler: Current Reads

Expedience
Really see him as town. Everything Im seeing feels genuine, and he's scum hunting.


Garm
Basically same as exp
Ps wrt I think "But obviously "Nuh uh" isn't likely to convince you" was where I made it clear I was talking about me. May have been weirdly phrased though.


knightmare
Reading town. Aggressive, comfortable. I suppose some defensiveness MIGHT be meaningful, but if that's the best argument against him as town, there's little argument. I suppose given the combination of scum hunting and defensiveness I could engage with the possibility of him as being an sk if there's any reason to think we have one, but I'm not interested in discussing that in any depth on d1.


Sakura Hana
Really seems town. One possible exception is if there are two scum teams and she's just hunting the other scum team (possibly along with a50 buddy?). Not something I'm interested in exploring at this time but wanted that possibility on record. Something in my gut feels slightly off... But it's likelier nothing.


Goodlordwill
Haven't see enough to sort yet. Nothing feels off in ISO... But There's not much there yet.


Almost50
I don't know what I think about him. I liked his explanations, and it all made sense. I suppose I probably SHOULD be town reading him... But I dunno. His gambits seem to make sense, and there's town explanations for it all... But I feel like this could be just quality scum play as well.


Sayaka Maizono
Null. Haven't really seen enough to have an opinion. Really want to see her thoughts before end of d1.


texcat
I get the suspicion on this slot. Plausible team mate of Lowell and/or Madonna. Her a50 vote was under developed. I have no idea why voting knights accuser to l-2 after clearing knight is any kind of specific scum tell. It's possible, though, that she's town with a REALLY strong feeling about moving between wagons as a major scum tell.


Boonskiies
Alignment: boonskiies. Seriously, I'm having trouble reading this slot. I can't tell if he's playing up the "I am boon" behavior or not. Seems eager to call Lowell and Madonna differing alignments, never really said why he thinks Lowell is town... Just that he didn't like the wagon. Not a priority to sort on d1.


chilledtea
Shameless vote hopping for weak reasons. He's not at the very top of my list but he seems scummy to me.


Madonna
I have no clue what she was up to wrt the Lowell wagon if she was town. Even if scum play that was just BAD. The overtly suicidal nature of her posts makes me a bit nervous that it's just too easy, but again, what could the town motivation possibly be?


Lowell
screams scum to me for reasons enumerated repeatedly.

[mhsmith0]

...
I think we should not end the day before Sayaka returns.

Also "you all", mmm.

Do you think there's substantial value to getting specific feedback on this issue from her? Are you meaningfully scum reading her, or is this just "let's slow it down and get more info, guys"?

I don't love giving her a pass on commenting on Madonna or Lowell, but I'm not sure that letting the game sit stagnant for another couple of days is healthy either.

[mhsmith0]

I'm tempted to say screw it and hammer, my #2 scum read but CT has declared the honor effective soon. I'll see where things stand in another 12 hours. Given madonnas apparent choice to not show up and defend or declare a pr, if I don't see anything from her in another 12 hours I'm going to consider that a confession.

That's said, if anyone wants to make a case for why it's important to wait and see what the whole board thinks, then I'm open to listening on that front (presuming ct doesn't just hammer first anyway).

[mhsmith0]

Exp's 646 is really interesting. Not at all the way I'd thought about it. Need to let that rattle around for a while to see what I think, but I'm happy to see a potentially readable confrontation between two people that haven't been tremendously under the gun in d1. In a related note, what did you (exp) think of a50's reaction test there and his town read of Sakura for it?

I'm (mostly) caught up, I made it to around page 18 or so

As of now, I have town reads on MhSmith, Sakura, Almost50, knightmare's slot, Expedience, and maybe Garmr, in roughly that order

Scum is in Lowell, texcat, Boon, and chilled

I had to boot Lowell and chilled out of my town reads because I'm waaay running out of room, but preferably I would prefer to lynch someone who is not him first. More explanation incoming when I read the remaining pages.

I'm looking forward to seeing your explanations. You seem to be seeing the board fairly similar to me... But I want to know why you think that way.

OK. It came when I was on. And yeah, it appears I was here later than Sakura. I think that showing your thoughts and reasons for a vote is a townie thing to do, even if they are a repeat. You don't think my reasons were bad, just that they were the same as Sakura's. I still think that's carp.

So just to make sure I understand, you hadn't seen sakuras post? And your point here is that you NOW assess it as being townie process, even if in hindsight it was a "repeat"? Please let me know if I have it correct or if something else is going on.


Ps One thing that I'm feeling better about: this is town vs scum. No 3p sk, no 2nd scum faction. Hard to imagine a no nk night unless it's town vs scum. That's kind of a mechanics side note, but it also means that I'm less concerned with considering a sk or a possible 2nd scum group that's honestly scum hunting, but just against the 1st group (and vice versa). Anyone think I'm wrong here? I feel confident that this can at least somewhat narrow down the range of things to look for, which hopefully helps focus things a bit.

PPS I'm currently still liking Lowell or ct for wagons. Texcat... Not as sure there. Need to mull over sincerity more than anything. I'm struggling to fully wrap my head around end d1, but I feel like there should be SOMETHING telling there. Could be as easy as ct scum hammering and trying to play "too scum for scum"... Could be something else. I 100% am opposed to any early d2 hammers.

[mhsmith0]

Alright you guys need to stop. Voting me is idiotic.
...

Why? What specifically about the cases on you is weak?

[mhsmith0]

prod dodge. Will have time to be back over the weekend.

[mhsmith0]

@Texcat:
Can you explain why exactly you're voting Lowell instead of chilledtea? In 617 you're telling ct specifically that his post is "crap", and then you cite two posts (consecutive) that basically suggest that ct and lowell are both hopping aboard the texcat wagon.

With that in mind, what made you sufficiently more suspicious of Lowell that you wanted to vote him instead of ct? It wouldn't be the fact that Lowell had a wagon yesterday, would it? As you say yourself, "Scummy is jumping on the wagon just because it's a wagon".

PS You say in 628 "Lowell doesn't explain any reason whatsoever". But for the most part neither does ct. The only additional vote-related commentary ct gives at the time is that he'd be cool with you or GLW. That's really not much.

PPS I'll be honest: I'm not high on Lowell OR ct right now. But I really struggle to see where YOU are seeing a difference, other than "Lowell has attracted more votes".


@Almost50:

Fine. Madonna it is then.
VOTE: Madonna <<< L-1
CLAIM!
P.S. Well done, scum team. *Thumbs Up*

Explain that joke. You're putting Madonna at L-1 as a "oh fine" sort of thing with a snarky "well done scum team" joke? Was this a suggestion Madonna and Lowell were scum team? Or that her lynch was orchestrated by scum?


@Expedience
I really struggle to agree with your analysis on 646. You're basically assuming that there was legitimate reason for Sakura to feel "crippling fear" that the knight wagon would turn into a ML. I guess it's always possible for scum to make panic moves, but I just don't see your overall theory as likely. Every vote on a wagon is to be attacked; why would she feel bad about a wagon where a bunch of the votes were, frankly, garbage?

That simply doesn't make sense. That said, there ARE some plausible scum theories about her behavior that I'd be willing to entertain:

1) She was "panicked"... not because of a quick MIS-lynch, but because of a quick CORRECT lynch. A ML helps scum!Sakura because she can say the other votes sucked more; a correct lynch actively harms scum!Sakura. So to the extent that you think her behavior there is panicky scum, that doesn't clear knight (now TT), it implicates him. I won't go so far as to say that they're clearly aligned... but it's at least a point worth noting.

2) She was making an easy grab for town credit from a reaction test, at least possibly enabled by scum-buddy A50.

Those are theories that I can at least consider consistent with a scum mindset. "Oh no a bunch of lazy townies will lolhammer a townie but somehow I'll be blamed"... sorry but I can't agree. Now, that doesn't mean that I necessarily BUY those theories just yet, but they're non-crazy and certainly worth rattling around in my head for a while, especially if we start seeing flips in the Sakura/TT/A50 grouping.

@ToastyToast:

1) wrt 682, in 43 I used the "newbie defense" with respect to my understanding of theory. Frankly, there are areas where I don't know as much as others. If that rubs you the wrong way, oh well I guess.

2) Can you explain the "simultaneous" part? The quotes you cited (43 and 371) are over 48 hours apart.

3) Why do you think trying to catch scum teams early is scummy? Should we not be looking for multiple scum? Should we not be working to develop other reads in case target #1 claims a PR? Should we not be exploring possible connections between slots for usefulness given flips? I don't really understand your perspective here.

[mhsmith0]

Explain that joke. You're putting Madonna at L-1 as a "oh fine" sort of thing with a snarky "well done scum team" joke? Was this a suggestion Madonna and Lowell were scum team? Or that her lynch was orchestrated by scum?

The latter. I firmly believe scum redirected the Lowell lynch to Madonna, and there was no way to stop the town from shooting itself in the foot. The sad think is it's happening all over again, but I'm not going to be on this one.

And just to be on the clear: texcat is NOT my strongest town read. Not even close. But I've played with her and was warned she's a lynch bait often enough, yet we still went on and lynched her bc she still felt scummy, and guess what? She flipped town.

Let me get this straight: you voted someone whose lynch you did NOT believe in? To put her at L-1?

Was your strategy here to try and grab town cred because town!Madonna did the exact same dumb thing or did you have something else in mind?

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith0, I didn't really mean it like that and I don't think Sakura was afraid of a fast lynch. I just think that the way she approached the wagon was unnatural and forced. I was trying to make it into a story so people would listen to me (since people like stories), but it didn't work. Since people can easily disagree with "this sounds bad".

Fair enough. However, I thought that your narrative explanation was interesting enough to explore. And I wanted to make a clear counter-argument to the implication you made that the interaction suggested that scum!Sakura points to town!Knight. Because if I'm reading connections at all, it reads suggesting of scum-scum as an association.

[mhsmith0]

I mean seriously, A50, YOU were the one who put her at L-1. ct can't quick-hammer her if you don't do that. So "good job scum team" doens't really work as an explanation for enabling what you felt like a mislynch. Just because town!Madonna pulled that stunt doesn't mean that it's anything other than fundamentally suspicious.

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith0, I didn't really mean it like that and I don't think Sakura was afraid of a fast lynch. I just think that the way she approached the wagon was unnatural and forced. I was trying to make it into a story so people would listen to me (since people like stories), but it didn't work. Since people can easily disagree with "this sounds bad".

Fair enough. However, I thought that your narrative explanation was interesting enough to explore. And I wanted to make a clear counter-argument to the implication you made that the interaction suggested that scum!Sakura points to town!Knight. Because if I'm reading connections at all, it reads suggesting of scum-scum as an association.

I think it's best to deal with that sort of thing after one of them flips. I think knightmare is town, and that's not because I think Sakura is scum trying to mislynch him.

Agreed on the "don't really worry about it now" thing. But I wanted my take on the record in case it comes up later.

[mhsmith0]

@Texcat:
Can you explain why exactly you're voting Lowell instead of chilledtea? In 617 you're telling ct specifically that his post is "crap", and then you cite two posts (consecutive) that basically suggest that ct and lowell are both hopping aboard the texcat wagon.

With that in mind, what made you sufficiently more suspicious of Lowell that you wanted to vote him instead of ct? It wouldn't be the fact that Lowell had a wagon yesterday, would it? As you say yourself, "Scummy is jumping on the wagon just because it's a wagon".

PS You say in 628 "Lowell doesn't explain any reason whatsoever". But for the most part neither does ct. The only additional vote-related commentary ct gives at the time is that he'd be cool with you or GLW. That's really not much.

PPS I'll be honest: I'm not high on Lowell OR ct right now. But I really struggle to see where YOU are seeing a difference, other than "Lowell has attracted more votes".

You are correct. ChilledTea and Lowell are at the top of my scum list. I can't vote for both of them, much as I'd like to. I picked Lowell primarily because he was the lynch candidate saved by Madonna. ChilledTea hammered in the middle of the night before Madonna had a chance to claim. I find that scummy. And I think that was to protect scum-mate Lowell.

I'm struggling to see your logic here.

1) In your mind, ChilledTea was explicitly acting scummy, especially given the "middle of the night" bit.
2) Madonna (town) saved Lowell from a lynch (in fact she explicitly acted to save him, though I certainly don't think she wanted to replace him).

How do these facts, in your own mind, lead you to think that Lowell is scummier than ChilledTea?


PS To clarify, here's where I am mentally. You're in a difficult situation as a lynch candidate, and I'm trying to decide if you're:

1) Looking for the easiest target (clearly Lowell, since he nearly got lynched on D1)
2) Looking for the honestly best scum read

#1 would be scum behavior (almost textbook). #2 would be town behavior. Convince me that you're at #2, because your responses are suggesting #1 instead.

[mhsmith0]

@a50: honestly I'm not sure about you. You're not at the top of my list but you're definitively not sitting in my town reads.

So basically I AM still suspicious of you, but I'm not so suspicious of you that I want to lynch you right now. I'd like to get more from you to give me confidence in either a town or scum read. You're posting enough that I feel like I should have a solid opinion on you by now. But I don't.

Ps I feel like my #1 priority is figuring out where I stand on texcat: if I want in on her lynch or if I want to be against it. My other top two were Lowell and ct going into today, and if I'm against her lynch I'm probably for one of theirs. Its early enough in d2 that I don't feel I need to rush into a decision, but mentally that's where I am right now. Hopefully I see enough to solidify an opinion soon.

PPS to be clear, right now my top here are Tex, low, ct. Not sure what order.

[mhsmith0]

@smith:
May you vote Lowell, please? His flip should help you solidify or reverse your read on texcat. They can't be scum together, can they?

@chilled:
Likewise.

Lowell did a semi-soft claim. Even if I vote him I want it to be so that there is no hammer.

He is also V/LA at the moment. Lets wait a bit for him.

Also, I don't really want to lynch for "information". I don't mind speculating on what a flip might mean as we go, but if we reach an impasse where that is the driving reason for our vote, then we've failed as a town. And I'm not ready to admit that kind of defeat this early on d2.

[mhsmith0]

@exp: is the sayaka case basically 293-296 or has other stuff caught your eye since then?

[mhsmith0]

@exp: is the sayaka case basically 293-296 or has other stuff caught your eye since then?

I forgot why but Sakaya should post more. I remember thinking they were still scum when they posted at the start of d2 but I can't find many things to nitpick (likely because they aren't posting much). I find 603 scummy here somehow:

I usually attribute to this to scum, but practically everyone in this game is doing it except for like two or three people, so it can't be scum driven.

Can you clarify why you think 603 is scummy? Do you think it's reasonable that she's simply making an attempt for the town to stop engaging in what she feels are anti town behaviors that SHOULD be primarily scum driven?

I agree with the lack of posting and production, but I'm not sure why that necessarily scummy as opposed to someone who may just need to be replaced due to unavailabilty (if her lack of availability continues/worsens).

I mean, I get why we shouldn't just put her in the town read pile, but I'm struggling to really see the case for her being at or near the top of the scum read pile either. I feel like her slot is one that needs to be sorted more on future production than having really earned any kind of solid read to date. I'm open to reasons I'm wrong here, but I'm not feeling this case right now.

[mhsmith0]

Does it matter if I hadn't said it or not? It's not a fully developed read, like come on. I obviously am not huge on it. When the fuck have you heard me talk about trying to get Sakura lynched. And my read is Tex OR chilled.

Can you clarify why you think it's Tex OR ct? Why not both? Is there something specific suggesting town/scum here?

[mhsmith0]

...
What do you think of Expedience misrepresenting everything?

Which things do you think that Expedience has misrepresented?

[mhsmith0]

Garmr (1): Expedience

Here are the lists provided by others. Everyone has their own suspects:

<snip>
Sakura, Sakaya, texcat (Expedience)
<snip>

Uh what.
Garmr is nowhere in this list yet Exp is voting him?

SCUMTELL FOUND!

Can you clarify this one? What's the scum plan here? Or is an inadvertent slip?

Expedicen+Boons+(Lowell?)

I feel like it's gotten to the point where if people can't see that page 34 Sakura is utter bullshit, they should just stop playing.[/quote]

How reasonable do you think it is that she might be somewhat checked out of the game and not fully following everything post V/LA?

[mhsmith0]

I was mocking Sakura, how she was trying to make irrelevant things sound alignment indicative. There are multiple instances in which I have done this and people have missed the point, apparently unable to see how what I was quoting made no sense.

OK fair enough. I thought you were being explicitly serious there, and was struggling to see it.

[mhsmith0]

Tbh i've always hated TvS arguments, because it looks like scum lining up lynches.
Boon is scum for lying and doing the above.
Expedience is scum for misrepresenting every single one of my posts since day 1.

1) I don't loathe TvS as much as you, but I do see the argument here. I always kind of like seeing it because it's another data point by which we can analyze sincerity and reasonableness.

2) How is boon lying?

3) How is exp misrepresenting you? You don't need to give the full list, but something like your top three examples would be helpful.

[mhsmith0]

Or is it that after witnessing how I reacted on Blitz 21 you decided to just do the exact same thing again every game?
Do you hate me that much?
Is it your objetive to make me ragequit MS again?

Is this the game you reference?
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=110&t=65049

I suppose I should look at it for a comparison point.

[mhsmith0]

I'm not seriously saying that you're scum for putting Madonna to L-1, and I never was. I was just trying to pressure you into actually doing something rather than all the posturing and not voting anyone.

So backtracking now?

Oh fuck off.

I'm just having a bit of fun at the scum's expense, relax.

I mean, you can't really go back on the "lel lets hard townread and chainsaw defend each other" it now.

So you admit to chainsawing for chilled.

No, I obviously didn't mean that when I said

you

, you scumfuck. You and Sakura.

Maybe this conversation needs to take a break. I'm not sure that this is moving in any kind of productive direction.

[mhsmith0]

Or is it that after witnessing how I reacted on Blitz 21 you decided to just do the exact same thing again every game?
Do you hate me that much?
Is it your objetive to make me ragequit MS again?

Is this the game you reference?
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=110&t=65049

I suppose I should look at it for a comparison point.

Yes that's the game I reference.
People led by Wisdom just kept shouting that I was scum, with no reasoning, and everyone just followed along and didnt let me do anything so I end up ragequitting.
My current belief is that Expedience is trying to achieve the same since he knows how i react as town, and it's why he's trying to make those misrepresentations, snarky remarks and taunting me.

Is it your opinion that you would only be affected this way as town?

[mhsmith0]

Is it your opinion that you would only be affected this way as town?

I don't have any opinion on anything meta related to me, I let ppl meta me and form their own opinions. Because anything that i know would attribute to just town me, i will implement to my scum game.

That being said.
I guess I can be affected as both alignments, but the difference is that as scum it would be fake.

OTOH, you may find it easy as scum to be genuinely pissed off about something that genuinely pisses you off and show your sincerity that way. I do buy that you're pissed off, but I'm not at this time buying your reaction (though seemingly legitimate) as alignment-indicative.

[mhsmith0]

I can't tell if 904 is fake anger or this just what boon does. Feels fake but may just be his meta. Anyone played w boon before? Does he normally go nuts like this?

[mhsmith0]

I'm looking at prior Boon games...
town http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7765456
town http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7737426
town http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7643819
scum http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7231303

and the whole tone sounds completely different from him here.

on the other hand...
scum http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7186368
546 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7152032
That one (and some of the next few) sound similar to some of the stuff he's been spewing this game.

Moreover, I just don't see cause for him to get THAT angry in the first place in this game. Feels like he's playing it up. And I agree with TT's bit about him active lurking; he's posting a lot, but he really isn't doing much of anything productive.

VOTE: Boonskiies

[mhsmith0]

edit: those links apparently only carry through into the game and not the actual ISO. not sure why.

[mhsmith0]

@Sakura Hana:
wrt 857:
1)
I definitely see the plausible scum strategy there. OTOH, I'd consider it reasonable for town, so the whole thing seems null to me.

2)
I find Boon lying here to be plausible (I suppose lazy/sloppy is also possible, but there's a seeming lie of substance here, which does seem to matter).
Not sure its indicative on exp specifically though.

3)
So looking at your three, I'd say:
A] 28 was a bit reachy. Not horrifically or unreasonably so, but a strong scum read that early could plausibly mean a scum looking for town credit for aggressive early scum hunting. And wrt the unvote, my recollection was that opinion was split on whether it was townie, scummy, or just null. So for him to be in the "I think it's scummy" side doesn't seem like a crazy reach or anything.

B] you put one on L-2 and the other L-1. "You put both at L-1" was a factual mis-statement but I don't know that it's a fundamentally important distinction. If this is a scum strategy to discredit/lynch you (ignoring later correction), it's a stupid one because it's easy argued against by simple fact-checking. Ditto the whole bit about missing the "now" portion of your quote.

C] a quick correction of his above post from a minute prior. If this is a scum strategy, it's a strategy of looking town by being willing to correct his own mistakes.

D] why is it bad to try and provoke a reaction? Maybe he's trying to read your slot by reaction testing? I'm struggling to see that as an inherently scummy approach.

Overall, I'm not ready to solidly scum-read either of you from your back and forth or call it town-town. If Boon's apparent breakdown was less jarring I'd be spending more time and energy digging into it, but right now it feels kind of null on both sides. Maybe town-town, maybe scum-scum, maybe town-scum. It's probably worth mulling over in more detail at some point, but I'm not convinced it's really a priority right now.

[mhsmith0]

@boon:

1) I meta dove you on the tone/anger
2) I +1'd TT on the active lurking

separate points

[mhsmith0]

I will admit I'm a bit put off by the L-2 and L-1 votes not bothering to point that out. Also, I'll parrot Sayaka from earlier and ask that we don't quick-hammer day 2 like we did day 1. I'm still comfortable being on this wagon, but let's at least take a bit of time before we hammer.

[mhsmith0]

By the way, as long as we're all sitting around waiting for "something" to happen wrt Boon...

TT, could you explain your three-way stratification structure a bit more? Is it mainly on activity/substance? And in your mind, is there generally a decent way to ID a "scapegoat" type player before he flips?

[mhsmith0]

UNVOTE: Boon

[mhsmith0]

@mhs - Here is a game I raged a lot. This link doesn't go the ISO, it wasn't linking correctly, but just click ISO on me on that page, then "ctrl+F" Fuck. I was a town PR.

I'll look at it. Probably not today though.

[mhsmith0]

Boon is lying tho

I was waiting for something like that.

Yep. Time to get out the popcorn.

[mhsmith0]

Knight was the super obvious night kill....

...

Not obvious to me. Can you explain?

+1 here. Boon, please explain why you thought that Knight was "super obvious".

If you need a more in depth explanation:

He's supposedly a Town PR, who thinks i'm scum, from his PoV me saying that he's lying should be me preparing for a fake claim to get him lynched regardless, a towny reaction would be to call me out on BS and continue strongarming my lynch, but he... just ignored that my post existed at all. He knows he's lying and is worried that i caught him lying, so he's scum.

To clarify this, are you actually counter-claiming him, or just reading into his comments?

[mhsmith0]

I'd like her to clarify what she's getting at before making any kind of read on it.

[mhsmith0]

I'd like her to clarify what she's getting at before making any kind of read on it.

she's not getting at anything.

I'd like to hear from her before drawing such a conclusion. The conclusion you are drawing is plausible, and I can see the logic, but I'm not at the point where I'm auto-agreeing with you just yet.

[mhsmith0]

Dierfire, how likely is it in your mind that we're looking at town/town in Sakura/boon? I've re-read their interactions a few times now, and I'll admit I'm struggling to wrap my head around how to interpret it in terms of alignment for each.

You also seem to be suggesting that I'm a strong town read of yours. Why is that? And do you have any other strong town reads at this time?

[mhsmith0]

I'd say probably focus on 894 on. Boon and Sakura seem to be the big focus of the board lately.

[mhsmith0]

the Vengeful role is not Normal

looooooool wtf
VOTE: Sakura Hana

And are people actually voting Boonskiies, that's so dumb wow. He's un-counterclaimed as having stopped the mafia's nightkill and hence confirmed as town, right?

I don't know that I'd say confirmed town (maybe there's a doc/JK who thinks it would be stupid to out himself at this stage), but I'd need a lot to want to lynch Boon anytime soon. "Town for today" (and probably tomorrow) barring something screaming that he's scum is more or less where I am with his slot.

PS Good point about the vengeful role being non-normal.

VOTE: Sakura Hana

[mhsmith0]

PS Sakura is now at L-2 by my count.

[mhsmith0]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... ful_(role)

"In Non-Normal games, Vengeful may be used as a role modifier." Also, skimming other roles, "Normal" roles have explicit statements as such (cop, vig, etc. - all have "Normal Guidelines" subsection)

[mhsmith0]

go to http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... _Main_Page

"normal" roles have sectiosn explicitly describing them as such. Unless I'm badly misreading the page, Dier/Exp are correct here.

[mhsmith0]

OK I need this question to be resolved before I can vote. Is it possible for Sakura to be vengeful in this game? Or is it not possible?
UNVOTE: Sakura Hana

[mhsmith0]

@ct: what do you think of Dier's other points?

[mhsmith0]

@Smith:

What would it take to convince you to vote Boons and get it done with?? Would me offering to be tomorrow's lynch if he flips town do the trick? I mean, both myself and Sakura are now willing to take the fall for it. Would you PLEASE vote before I die of boredom?

You're almost 50, not almost 100. Plenty of time left. And given the possibility it's t/t (I'm not sure yet, but am not going to ignore the possibility), I'm not ready to jump on either side. Plus I want to see where this CT case goes.

[mhsmith0]

@Smith:

What would it take to convince you to vote Boons and get it done with?? Would me offering to be tomorrow's lynch if he flips town do the trick? I mean, both myself and Sakura are now willing to take the fall for it. Would you PLEASE vote before I die of boredom?

How can you possibly think Boonskiies is scum at this point, like seriously. As of now, he's confirmed town.

"Vote boon because I'm bored" is not going to convince me or (I'd guess) anyone else here.

I'll still contest exp's take as being fully true (no way would I just hand wave boon as town in lylo for instance)... But I'm not interested in lynching boon today. If you want to try to convince me otherwise be my guest. But I think it'll be a hard sell.

[mhsmith0]

No, I don't think you understand. If nobody else claims to have stopped the kill, Boonskiies must've been the one who stopped it.

Not really. You're apparently assuming that both:
1) a protective pr would have been notified of success or otherwise would know that boon must have been lying (maybe only one protective pr per "normal" game?)
2) the protective pr would want to out him/herself to get boon killed (especially given the possibility that Sakura venge-kills boon anyway)

I don't see why either assumption is necessarily valid.

[mhsmith0]

My vote remains on Boon. I'm a little skeptical of the vengeful claim, but remain convinced that Boon's claim is garbage.

Earlier toDay, Lowell had a cockamamie theory about the lack of a NK being because I was roleblocked, and he voted me. Boon followed him. Doesn't make sense to me. If Boon had truly jailkept last night, he would know a couple of reasons why there was no NK, but he never questions Lowell about it, he just votes me.

Is it your opinion that Boon was explicitly following Lowell's roleblock theory? I'm not really seeing it at 737

Or do you think that Boon would/should have been aggressively questioning Lowell's theory there? If so, why?

[mhsmith0]

It's a far more sensible argument to go for a scum death instead of a town and a scum death.
This isn't rocket science.

Problem is, boon is non-CC'd PR specifically in the context of stopping an NK. So while, yes, he's had some seriously suspicious moments, that's not where I want to look. I'm not lynching a non-CC'd PR claim this early in the game without a HELL of a case. I'm just not. That said, speaking of places to look...

I was town reading almost at that time (and even now)

Can you walk us through that read of A50? I'm struggling to see the thread evidence of this read. I see:

Almost hasn't really done anything worth considering scummy in this game

And various attacks on the votes on A50, but I don't really see much in terms of a substantive town read. "Hasn't really done anything worth considering scummy" is something, but had he done anything notably towny to you? Or was this more of a consistent null read, with a "lack of scummy vibes = probably town" kind of conclusion?

[mhsmith0]

Almost's reactions on day 2 make me feel he is strong town read. I have played with him on several occasions by now, I know he is town here. His reads are very similar to mine and he has this authorative - "let us hurry up with this day" approach. He is obvtown.

So you think A50 is town on day 2? What did you think on day 1? Your answer to dier was that you thought he was town on day 1... so what drove that read at that time?

[mhsmith0]

chilled tea please unvote why do you continue to torment me like this

I'm starting to think i know the answer...

[mhsmith0]

The only thing sakura said was Boon was lying and she is waiting for why boon lied.

Being that strong about it suggests a counter claim of some sort. Such as a tracker or cop on boon, a different protective role, etc. "You lied because I read you as lying"... was not how I read her statement at the time. Nor would I expect others to. That looked like a counter claim.

[mhsmith0]

That generalization does not apply. We don't know the roles, we do know there wasn't a kill on night one.

+1

There are three basic possibilities at work here:

1) Boon was telling the truth
2) Some other PR prevented the kill (BP or doc), and is actively choosing to remain silent for whatever reason
3) Scum decided not to kill last night

#3 is transparently ridiculous. So either Boon was telling the truth, or some other PR is staying silent for whatever reason. And while #2 IS possible (sorry exp, but it is possible, and is why Boon isn't 100% conf town), #1 is very much possible as well. Which means that it'd be ridiculous to lynch Boon at this time.

[mhsmith0]

The only thing sakura said was Boon was lying and she is waiting for why boon lied.

Being that strong about it suggests a counter claim of some sort. Such as a tracker or cop on boon, a different protective role, etc. "You lied because I read you as lying"... was not how I read her statement at the time. Nor would I expect others to. That looked like a counter claim.

Yes but not exactly a jailkeeper counter claim, and yet 1041.

So you're scum reading him because he thought that she was going to try and claim JK? That seems... forced.

[mhsmith0]

I am scum reading him because he conveniently claimed that he was the one who stopped the kill when he was on L-1. I am scum reading him because he ignored a very important post from Sakura and went straight to texcat to answer her queries. Sakura almost COUNTER CLAIMED, and what does he do? Ignores her.
What?

He is scum and he was trying to find out what he could do about the counter claim.

He "ignored" her for like his first post after her accusation. So what? Maybe he was trying to trap her into forcing an explicit dipole, maybe he felt like dealing with tex first, maybe he had some other reason. Scum-reading him for that is just silly.

And as far as role claiming at L-1, how the hell is THAT scummy? I mean, yes, scum could fake claim here. But you don't lynch a non-CC'd PR WHEN YOU KNOW THAT A PR STOPPED A KILL unless you're really, really, REALLY certain.

I mean, this should be obvious. I hope the reason it's not obvious is that you're scum.
VOTE: chilledtea

PS nice turnaround between your "don't want to lynch" read of Boon at 954 and this. Super convincing reasons

[mhsmith0]

It is possible, but really at this point they need to just claim if they are a jailkeeper or stopped a kill or whatever.

Why? There's currently a reasonable chance that sakura will flip vengeance and kill boon, or boon will get lynched regardless. I don't see what kind of gain we can get from potentially outing a PR here.

[mhsmith0]

ok so it appears the only way i can dispel the minute possibility that boonskiies' invisible and non-existent counterclaimant is deciding not to claim for some reason is to YELL LOUDLY AT THEM

SO IF YOUR ROLE IS ONE WHICH MAY HAVE PREVENTED A KILL LAST NIGHT, YOU MUST CLAIM IN YOUR NEXT POST.

Watch nothing happen. Lynch Sakura.

For now I'm just going to assume such a person doesn't exist, and then if we see an NK of a doc or JK or whatever, I'll be on boon's lynch.

PS How about a compromise on ct? Unless you honestly think he sincerely believes that "oh boon didn't answer sakura in his very first post" and "boon thought that sakura was JK claiming" are legitimate reasons to go from "I don't want to vote him" to voting him. Like, Sakura plausibly could actually be sincerely reading boon as being lying scum here (even if you don't think she is, it's not a totally crazy position for someone to have). I'd much rather lynch someone opportunistically hopping on the boon wagon... and oh look, I found one.

[mhsmith0]

There's currently a reasonable chance that sakura will flip vengeance and kill boon

For someone saying that Boon's an unCC'd PR, this doesn't seem to bother you in the slightest, you're suggesting here that we're both town and you don't care?

Really, take a stance, you either believe him, believe me, or believe both.

I have taken a position. I'm trying to lynch CT instead.

wrt which of you is lying, I don't know. I consider it plausible you're both town and sincerely scum-reading the other. I look at CT and think he found an easy wagon to hop onto for BS reasons. So I want to hang him instead.

[mhsmith0]

I was reaction testing Boon, he didn't react how a Town PR reacts to someone that he's scumreading claims.

How would you expect a town PR to react? How much variation in these kinds of reactions have you typically seen? And how much range do you give these reactions for some of the weirder players you see (and I think Boon likely fits somewhere in that range)?

[mhsmith0]

Like, smith, do you even understand how counter-claiming works?

She claimed that boon was lying and he didn't say a thing until it became clear that it was a reaction test. Of course there is absolutely nothing scummy in that, right?

It's a reach. He's still non CC'd PR. I'm not comfortable reading too deeply into the specific reactions of a weird player compared to your expctations of normal play.

PS for the record, I disagree with exp's demand for a PR reveal. I suppose a BP player might as well reveal, but I'd rather keep a doc/JK alive and potentially useful in future nights, thank you very much.

[mhsmith0]

I was reaction testing Boon, he didn't react how a Town PR reacts to someone that he's scumreading claims.

it was just a prank

who do you find worse, the reaction tester who was already scum-reading boon, or the guy who hops onto the wagon just for that reason?

[mhsmith0]

at any rate, it's late and I'm going to bed. I think of the three people we're discussing, ct is the scummiest and best lynch candidate. if you'd rather lynch a plausible PR who has still not been CC'd, then you'd goddamn better be right.

PS for the record, I'd MUCH rather have a "why are you still alive today" conversation with boon tomorrow than plausibly waste a lynch on him today. If he's a JOAT, he'll be using another ability tonight, and we can see what he has to say for himself at that point.

[mhsmith0]

That was what i was trying to do! but thanks a lot for not lynching scum boon.

If he's scum, there is NO WAY he will be able to keep up the charade for much longer. And if he's town, he could very plausibly help us out.

Trying to lynch this declared and un CC'd PR is a MASSIVE risk for us. I don't want to take it. Nor do I want you lynched when it's plausible you could then shoot Boon and we lose two town PR's in one fell swoop.

So why don't we agree to lynch ct (if you have a better candidate I'm wiling to listen), and then tomorrow if one of you is dead, we can grill the other based on the flip? That seems a MUCH better plan than rolling the dice against the possibility that you're both town PR's.

[mhsmith0]

Hell, after exp's "let's see if we can get ANOTHER town PR to declare" push I might even be willing to entertain his lynch. I feel like that's a bigger stretch, but I'll at least listen (tomorrow).

[mhsmith0]

PS to clarify, "tomorrow" is after I go to bed and wake up, not D3.

[mhsmith0]

I'll listen. I just REALLY don't want to risk lynching a town PR when it's super obvious that he's dead meat by D4 at the absolutely latest if he's lying scum anyway. I mean, he's declared JOAT. "Oh I forgot to use my powers" isn't exactly going to fly for this group (at least I hope not).

[mhsmith0]

Wait a second, wouldnt another PR outing mean that Boons is counter-claimed? I don't understand why you say "ANOTHER" town PR.

You and Boon have declared PR's. That's two. Another would be #3. Although i suppose that claim would make it very likely that Boon was lying.

I still prefer giving scum the chance to NK boon and if he's still alive pushing him a lot harder on what he did N2 and why.

[mhsmith0]

@exp: I suppose the whole boon wagon deserves a fresh look in the morning. I just find CT's flip from "I don't want a Boon lynch" to voting him non-credible. His Dier push seems OMGUS more than anything else, but I'll take another look in the morning.

[mhsmith0]

oh god this game gives me such a damn headache
UNVOTE: chilledtea

I'll (try to) sort this shit out in the morning or something.

[mhsmith0]

How plausible do you think it is that exp and garmr were scum buddies distancing earlier? I plan to reread them together to see what I think, but off the cuff it doesn't seem like an impossible strategy,

Ps my availability this weekend will be sporadic. Family stuff going on.

[mhsmith0]

I don't think Garmr-Exp is town-town. Trying to decide if it's plausibly scum-scum. At any rate, Exp's role fishing yesterday was pretty terrible.

VOTE: Expedience

I think I'm up for a Garmr or Lowell lynch as well. Need to re-read those two and decide what I think there.

[mhsmith0]

If there's one and only one thing I know, it's that sakura is town. That was too real to be bussing. Come at me, bros.

I'd +1 here. Not totally impossible, but that would be an incredibly ballsy scum play, especially since it (presumably) killed off day chat, which is a HUGE cost to scum team. Certainly I can't think of anyone who's merited a stronger town read at this point than Sakura.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, I'm okay with that.

@Sakura - what exactly are your thoughts on Garmr?

This was boon talking about a potential garmr wagon (then at two votes), which he ended up not joining, in favor of staying on Sakura. To the extent that boon was sacrificed to protect someone, that's who would seem to stick out, unless you think that texcat (the popular pre boon wagon) was strategically important enough to have boon take her place. I'm not yet sure that the theory holds together, but I THINK tahts where it would point. Will dig deeper to see if I'm missing anything.

Ps@sakura: I didn't want a cc. I was about as explicit as I could be on that point. That a cc ended up coming from that situation was very much NOT what I intended.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Garmr

Also, I doubt Direfire is scum. Especially not for the reasons I can see Garmr preparing to pull out of his ass.

You know, it's a lot more fun if you wait until after those reasons get ass pulled.

[mhsmith0]

Edit: the garmr wagon was at one vote when boon posted that, and then bumped to two soon after. But it was right around that time the plausible alternative to boon or Sakura.

[mhsmith0]

Here's the sequence I mention above. Passive case, is "put off" by the wagon (that he is on!) might actually bear fruit, then unvote without explanation. Pretty sincere, guy.

I'm looking at prior Boon games...
town http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7765456
town http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7737426
town http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7643819
scum http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7231303

and the whole tone sounds completely different from him here.

on the other hand...
scum http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7186368
546 http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7152032
That one (and some of the next few) sound similar to some of the stuff he's been spewing this game.

Moreover, I just don't see cause for him to get THAT angry in the first place in this game. Feels like he's playing it up. And I agree with TT's bit about him active lurking; he's posting a lot, but he really isn't doing much of anything productive.

VOTE: Boonskiies

I will admit I'm a bit put off by the L-2 and L-1 votes not bothering to point that out. Also, I'll parrot Sayaka from earlier and ask that we don't quick-hammer day 2 like we did day 1. I'm still comfortable being on this wagon, but let's at least take a bit of time before we hammer.

UNVOTE: Boon

I feel like 987 was pretty clear as to my position. And something happened right before my unvote in 993. Now what could THAT be....

Seriously, fuck this game. You guys are lynching a PR. I fucking jailed Toasty last night. I thought I blocked the kill until he started lying.

Oh yeah. That.

[mhsmith0]

Other notes:

He's the answer, friends. A lot of problems here, mostly having to do with his voting. He tunnelled me for awhile on day 1, several times threatening IN LARGE FONT to hammer me. Never happened.

I put a specific time frame on that hammer. The Madonna wagon built before the hammer came down. Like, are you even paying attention at this point? I would think that you'd have a better recollection of a wagon involving you.

Anyway, UNVOTE: . I need to sort between Exp, Garmr and you. Maybe toss in A50 as a possibility too, but I feel pretty comfortable about my top three right now.

[mhsmith0]

@A50: Is there a reason you care about whether or not you're getting town credit? You're not currently getting votes, you're not at the top of peoples' lists (I don't think anyone has you #1 at this point, please correct me if I'm wrong), you're not in much danger today, and if we lynch exp and lowell as you suggest, then even if just one of them is scum, we're probably in great shape (down to 5:1 most likely presuming a 10v3 original setup).

PS FYI, as of 1303 my top three was Exp, Garmr and Lowell, with you as #4. I'm not sure what to think of your 1308. Certainly doesn't inspire confidence at first glance.

PPS I voted Boon, unvoted him because I believed his PR claim (or at least thought it sufficiently plausible that I didn't want to risk a double PR death), voted ct, unvoted ct after he claimed, and then went to bed. Then the hammer came down before I made a decision on who I believed and where I should vote. I'm not entirely sure why this is alarming to you; can you exp that I

[mhsmith0]

@A50: tbh, I read the post from

And whoever still doubts me

until

Mine is the exact same one. I lynched one and pursuing the same other 2

as basically an ode to how you've been consistent in your reads and are therefore towny, as opposed to being a specific case against Exp/Lowell. I suppose it could just be poor communication, or my poor reading. Doesn't really look like it, but I'll give it another look later tonight.

wrt your accusations against me in 1312:
1) Boon was hammered before I made a decision. I don't know why you'd expect me to rush the hammer when there were days to go before deadline. There was a claim and a counter-claim on the board; why would you expect me to rush to judgement?

2) I have no idea why this is relevant. I'd had him on the bad end of my reads for a while (see 581), and IIRC I then more aggressively scum-read him basically for his bizarre temper tantrum. Why does it matter whether he was in my "top three" at the time you were making a list?

3) If "that list" means the one in 1308, I have no idea why you made a list showing my top three suspects as including you instead of lowell. 1303 was clear on that point. So if you're asking why my list "changed" in that respect, I think you'd be better able to answer that than I would. If you mean something else please clarify.

4) I'd also note that 1226 made it clear that I was suspicious of both exp and garmr BEFORE night phase. Lowell's been sitting on my radar basically all game, so I don't know why you'd think there's anything disjoint about my reads between EOD2 and start of D3.

[mhsmith0]

See the "OTHER" wagons comment.

[mhsmith0]

I can certainly see a potential association w/ Lowell due to Boon's non-hammer, but I'd also consider it plausible that Boon's scum-mates told him not to draw attention to himself by derp-hammering, or that he himself made that call. I'd tend to file that one under somewhat suspicious as opposed to strongly incriminating.

[mhsmith0]

I can certainly see a potential association w/ Lowell due to Boon's non-hammer, but I'd also consider it plausible that Boon's scum-mates told him not to draw attention to himself by derp-hammering, or that he himself made that call. I'd tend to file that one under somewhat suspicious as opposed to strongly incriminating.

This is what I'm saying. Believe me or not, but I'd never derp-hammer a scumpartner as scum. If you're not bussing early and often, there's no reason to bus at all.

And that's more or less the problem. The question is, does Boon not hammering you mean:

1) Boon didn't want to hammer his scum-buddy
2) Boon didn't want to look suspicious by hammering a townie

#1 is an entirely plausible scenario. #2 is also possible, though. Which is why I'd say it's suspicious as opposed to strongly incriminating.

[mhsmith0]

Otherwise, I understand why my slot was so unconcerned about this game. Take that as you will.

Or... you could just explain it to us?

[mhsmith0]

I'm bored. That's basically all I need to explain…

Well that's a start. Anything in particular that bores you? The pace? The content? Etc.

One plausible theory starting to rattle around my mind is that your slot is lurking because it's basically happy with the game state, i.e. the town is totally barking up the wrong tree other than boon.

At some point I'd like you to participate and prove that idea wrong.

[mhsmith0]

I'm bored. That's basically all I need to explain…

Well that's a start. Anything in particular that bores you? The pace? The content? Etc.

One plausible theory starting to rattle around my mind is that your slot is lurking because it's basically happy with the game state, i.e. the town is totally barking up the wrong tree other than boon.

At some point I'd like you to participate and prove that idea wrong.

I have no opinion on that idea. Why tf do I have to prove it wrong?!?

Today you don't. But if you keep lurking and we ML, I'm going to really wonder why you weren't part of that discussion.

If you stop lurking before EOD, then never mind.

[mhsmith0]

End of day. I.e. Before day 3 closes. If you're taking the weekend off, not ideal but whatever. If you're going to take a full week off (let alone the full 9 days), much less okay.

[mhsmith0]

Wtf you haven't spoken about or to me until now

Fuckin come at me

Um, I just did. That's about as much as I really have to say wrt you. You're not in my top three/four scum reads, but you aren't really reading town either. If you want to participate and be read, awesome. If you want to reprise this conversation later on, not ideal but that's your choice. I don't feel like Im saying anything controversial here.

[mhsmith0]

You're not saying something particularly controversial, but you're engaging with me now, while I'm drunk, for the first time all phase… which means it took me posting in this thread for you to even notice me or to have (or to pretend to have) an opinion on me

I'm largely null on you, and I'm trying to get more out of you. Probably responding to you while you're drunk wasn't ideal. I'd be happy to engage with you (or read the engagements between you and others) on other topics over the next few days when you're sober.

[mhsmith0]

Nah, I don't really think you're scum.

This is

nasty

at least you're in good humor

[mhsmith0]

You're not saying something particularly controversial, but you're engaging with me now, while I'm drunk, for the first time all phase… which means it took me posting in this thread for you to even notice me or to have (or to pretend to have) an opinion on me

I'm largely null on you, and I'm trying to get more out of you. Probably responding to you while you're drunk wasn't ideal. I'd be happy to engage with you (or read the engagements between you and others) on other topics over the next few days when you're sober.

This is patronizing. It also assumes I give responses that're somehow LESS alignment-indicative while I'm drunk, when one would normally assume the opposite to be true. So what do you want from me? Best to accost me now about it, non?

I want you to participate more, and engage more, and to know where you stand on everyone here. Until that happens, you'll stay in null space. I'm not sure what I can really get that's AI from you tonight to be honest. I suspect you're legitimately irritated at me right now, but that could be true as town or scum. What else I can get from you tonight, honestly I don't know.

[mhsmith0]

Nah, I don't really think you're scum.

This is

nasty

at least you're in good humor

I dislike your tone.

I thought you were going for a joke there and figured I'd go along for the ride. I guess not.

[mhsmith0]

I think it's funny that the sober guy (me) finds this episode more amusing than anything else. Or maybe I'm just an asshole. I'll admit the possibility.

[mhsmith0]

prodge. will be back soon, hopefully tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

Sorry, I'm still just as happy as can be with my vote on Expedience. But I would also be happy to go back to Lowell.

Sakura, can you explain why you have Expedience and Lowell so high up on your list?

Expedience posting when the whole CC thing came down felt towny (it felt genuine that he didnt expect a counter claim)
I liked Lowell's 1296 even tho i disagree with the conclusion.

Can you go over what you liked from 1296/1297? It seemed super lazy to me, like he was building a narrative without bothering to check the facts on it.

He did defend that in

It's true. I read in ISO without really looking at context. It's what I do

but mainly on self-meta grounds. With that in mind, is there anyone here who is familiar with his meta? Does he really tend to do this? I could try and meta dive it but I'd rather just ask around first. Or if Lowell can point to specific examples of this in prior games without my having to dig around for it, that'd be helpful too.

[mhsmith0]

Still haven't caught up, sorry. A skim gives me townvibes on texcat and Almost 50 recently, and I still believe sakura is town based on the battle with boon yesterday.

VOTE: expedience

This is naked vote someone I previously called town. I'm just going to do this and try to weather the storm, because this day is nowhere. My reasoning here, such as it is, isn't so much the case on exp itself (which is fine, but not overwhelming), but more based on who is on the wagon and exp's reaction to it.

Please give more detail. What about who is on the wagon, and about exp reaction, makes you want to be on this one?

Also,what from the skim gives you town reads on text and a50 recently?

[mhsmith0]

That's so stupid. Nobody really does that as scum.

Which is then why it might be a good idea to do just that as wolf. Ah, the joys of WIFOM and trying to separate anti-town from wolf behavior.

PS I could plausibly see Garmr's behavior there as bussing, but that's because I kinda had a "this could be w/w" feeling about their interactions from a while ago. Anything in particular lately to suggest that this is the case, or is this a continuation of an existing "Garmr/Exp wolf team" read?

[mhsmith0]

Exp, do you want to give us a more thought out case on Lowell, or garmr, or anyone else? I'm not at "intent to hammer" but I'm not much liking you either.

Will read in more detail sunday, likely will vote (or declare intent if on exp) then.

[mhsmith0]

+1 on garmr. If you're town help the town. If you're scum self hammer and let's move on to the next day.

[mhsmith0]

With TWO people replacing out I very much doubt we're getting a lynch.

I disagree there. Given exp's "screw it" response to being at l-1, I'm becomes a LOT more comfortable with the idea he's wolf #2.

Intent to hammer, exp has 24 hours to defend and give final thoughts.

[mhsmith0]

Last words, thoughts, reads etc.?

[mhsmith0]

Any ideas for garmr-buddy?

[mhsmith0]

Edit: your list was garmr, Lowell, Tex. my sense in that order, is that right?

[mhsmith0]

I've been on a business trip today, will check back in tomorow.

[mhsmith0]

Given CT and Exp's "lynch garmr" exits, that's where I'm leaning right now. Also, on pure math alone, if you presume that all players were equally likely to be any role (i.e. there was nothing suggestive in thread), then jailing Garmr meant that either CT jailed the killer or the target. So by random odds alone, Garmr would be about 50% to be the killer (it's exactly 50% if you assume that CT was not the target and that both killer and target were among the other 11 - it's slightly more than 50% if you account for the possibility that CT was the target).

I really don't want to vote just on that though, so I'm going to dig into the thread in more detail and see what I can find that is more useful. May not have much until the weekend though.

PS h_a, I'm also curious about your town read of me. Anything notable in thread that you picked up on? Gut read? I'd also note that it's a bit odd that you opened up with "anyone wolf reading MHS is suspicious", as opposed to waiting and seeing who would do that and then reacting (especially since the MHS voter pre your comment was the person who inherited Sakura's slot, which seems to be just about universally town read, as opposed to seeing if others piled on too). That may simply be a playstyle thing though.

[mhsmith0]

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

[mhsmith0]

On second thought, it's actually more complicated (the mafia clearly weren't going to be targets regardless of whether Garmr was killer or target)... but it's basically 50% is the important part.

[mhsmith0]

As for why Toasty didn't vote, that's actually a good question. Why didn't you vote Toasty?

I haven't decided if I think mhs or texcat is scummier. My brain tells me mhs but my gut says otherwise.

@mhsmith: Why did you ignore my post? Why have you "not voted" every lynch thus far?

Didn't all of them end early? That's my recollection. Digging into it:

Day 1: I wanted to vote Lowell. I even stated intent to hammer, 436. And the momentum shifted to madonna. And CT hammered (I was thinking about it, but wanted more time)
Day 2: Early hammer. I was part of the boon wagon, then he claimed, and I backed off. I started suspecting CT, voted him, and then he claimed. Then I unvoted, and then others voted boon ending day early.
Day 3: Stated intent to hammer on Exp in 1470, with 24 hour notice. h_a hammered first.

Out of curiosity, what is the narrative here that you're seeing? Or is this just "I skimmed vote #s, saw MHS was non-vote at all three EOD's, therefore suspicious"?

PS I personally think that A50 was either trying to draw an NK or was simply full of it. I'll confess to not knowing which, though my gut leans the latter.

PPS @dier: I think it's it's actually a bit weirder than that given presence of wolf-buddies, though the details really aren't important. "It's about 50%" is the bottom line conclusion.

[mhsmith0]

In other news, toasty is town.

Riabi probably not

.

Why "probably not" for Riabi? Given that he inherited Sakura's position (her treatment of boon was insanely aggressive for bussing IMO), that seems like a surprising read.

[mhsmith0]

For all our bluster and self-confidence, I would dispute the notion that we are other than a bunch of random machines playing.

Yes... we are definitely not machines playing...

bleep bloop...

[mhsmith0]

If I get taken out then remember to go through my ISO, there are some conversations with garmr and boon that you guys will find interesting.

Spoiler: CT on Garmr

I also didn't really like Garmr's subtly coming in and saying he liked Lowell's lynch, but was okay with Madonna's lynch. He never participated in the lynch.

Also, I am sorry for giving only 12 hours. I have learnt that these games have to be played with way more patience than what I originally anticipated.

I also didn't really like Garmr's subtly coming in and

saying he liked Lowell's lynch

, but was okay with Madonna's lynch. He never participated in the lynch.

Also, I am sorry for giving only 12 hours. I have learnt that these games have to be played with way more patience than what I originally anticipated.

I didn't like lowell much on day 1. He needs to contribute a lot more. I can get a clearer read on him.

All he did was "lynch this guy".

Incidentally Madonna read Lowell as town. So there was no manipulation involved there.

Not saying that makes Lowell town, but I will give him a chance. Let him come and put forward his ideas regarding the game.

At the moment my vote would be on either texcat or goodlordwill. Since texcat already has a vote on her, I will join the wagon.

VOTE: texcat

...
Something seems wrong about this.

Like I can't put my finger on it. Something just seems wrong about reading the contradiction, saying that one of lowell and madonna are scum, and then voting madonna by giving the contradiction as a reason.

Why are you voting lowell now?

VOTE:

VOTE: Lowell

This guy still hasn't answered my question. I will park my vote on him for some time.

These actions don't compute. He is passively giving excuses not to vote lowell but then puts his vote on lowell for not answering a question something is not right.

You are reading too much into it.

Texcat came and defended herself so I removed the vote and parked it on lowell temporarily.

You are making it sound like lowell is scum and I am his partner bussing him or something. I can assure you that this lowell wagon is almost rvs-worty on day 2.

@chilledtea
Why did you change your vote on texcat to lowell? You are building a case on Texcat (post 629) and then you suddenly shifted to lowell. Why is lowell scummy to you and why did you drop your case on tex and do nothing to push lowell after dropping it?

All of this happened a few hours ago.

The vote change was mostly because texcat was on L-4 at the time and seemed intent on defending herself. Lowell was nowhere to be seen. So I voted lowell. I mean I indicate as such by calling it vote parking.

I realize that Garmr already pursued this, but this post just stands out to me as scum yelling, "I'm just going for an easy lynch, I don't care who actually gets the rope."

Hmm. What do you think is the chance of lowell getting lynched because of this particular wagon?

Also, you are scum.
VOTE: texcat

VOTE: Chilledtea
I was considering what you since I wasn't really happy with your answer. But this shows you only backed off texcat because she was defending herself not because you town read her.

Lol.

What are the chances of lowell or texcat being lynched? Why don't you answer that question instead?

Garmr and texcat are both scum.

Both are giving bs reasons as explanations.

I specifically said

Shouldn't you be more sure of Lowell being town if one of lowell and madonna were scum and you had read madonna's contradiction?

I mean, can a person miss something like that? I caught it immediately and thought that was a very good catch by you. Even though it turned out to be that Madonna is town.

I guess it is not something we can verify at the moment.

VOTE:

VOTE: Lowell

This guy still hasn't answered my question. I will park my vote on him for some time.

Where did I specify that texcat is town? I never did.

Look, I don't tolerate bs reasons.

I realize that Garmr already pursued this, but this post just stands out to me as scum yelling, "I'm just going for an easy lynch, I don't care who actually gets the rope."


This is completely and utterly nonsense. No one is going for a lynch with lowell wagon. Texcat is making up reasons over here, nothing else. She is scum.
Also, something like this for changing one vote? From texcat at the beginning to lowell after the interrogation with texcat. Really? Jumping wagons are you serious?

Garmr, if you and texcat are scum together, bus your buddy now please. Texcat is scum, we can lynch you tomorrow instead of today, okay? See, if you think about it, I'm actually protecting you.

Chilled, if texcat flips town, I'm coming hard after you tomorrow.

Then go for garmr. You already think that garmr is bussing texcat.

I also think garmr is scum. Expedience thinks that texcat is always like this.

If texcat is town, then how am I supposed to know that? Frankly if I wasn't town reading you, I would have thought that this post is some kind of a "I know texcat is town, lets lynch her and then blame ctea for it".

What do you think? Want to go for garmr then? If garmr is town I will take responsibility for it.

My top two would be garmr, texcat. The third one isn't very strong - but if needed lowell.

Can I ask why you think I am scum and it better not be because I voted you.

You nitpicked my playstyle. If I don't ask more questions to texcat I am scum.

I absolutely cannot see that as reasonable from any angle. The discussion that was going on had something to do with the fact that texcat voted Madonna while giving similar reasons to Sakura on day 1. I found it fishy and decided to start the day with the vote on her. The situation reached a stalemate because she said she didn't notice Sakura Hana's reasons earlier on during day 1 and only saw it when she was going through Madonna's ISO. There was no way to verify this, so I stopped and decided to focus my attention to lowell. One of the ways I do it is by using my vote - anyone at that point using an argument that I was jumping wagons is a very big scumspect in my eyes. While I don't think you did that, texcat did.

Your argument that the only reason I could have removed my vote from texcat at the very early start of day 2 is because I town read her is wrong. It wasn't just a simple unvote - it was a transfer of vote to lowell.

By the way, I am pretty sure that among the few people who did try to engage lowell today, I was one of them.

Your vote hasn't got much to do with this.

Take a good look at this list :

{dierfire, lowell, boonskiies, garmr}

This is very important. Scum might be outside it but there definitely is inside it, at least 2. There is a very small chance that garmr is not scum but remember there was no kill on night 1. I always KNEW boon was scum I was buddying him so that I could try and block another kill jesus christ guys, you should know that scum always try to out the doctor/jk when they are getting lynched and when they know there is a protective role.

In your initial response to Boon's claim that I quoted above, and in several of your responses recently, you seem to be saying that your plan was not to counter the claim because you thought that your role was more valuable concealed. Initially, your response was even to allow Boon to survive the day (in favor of lynching Garmr). What has changed since then that you absolutely needed to convince Expedience and mhsmith0 that Boon is Mafia now, today?

There was a chance that sakura might have got lynched and sakura was starting to think that boon might be the one who stopped the kill. She might have taken someone else out with the vengekill not to mention that if boon is vengekilled he might be allowed another night action, I am not sure how it works.
If town is getting confused because the fact that there was no night kill, then I decided to take the confusion away. It is their loss at this point if I get NK'd. Boon was obvscum even without the fact that he claimed JOAT/JK. It is very common to claim doctor/JK when you are scum, and know there is a protective role and expose him.

Initially I wanted garmr out and then block boon - at least that attitude lead to boon claiming JOAT/JK and revealing himself as scum to the rest of the town. Also, if you notice boon never got on garmr's wagon. He considered garmr as possible scum but never got on his wagon.

If someone wants to make a solid case for Garmr as town I'll listen, but all of this is good enough for me. I'll dig into Exp vs Garmr more later on, but between this stuff and the mechanical 50-50 odds of Garmr being the N1 shooter, I think this is the right lynch for today.
VOTE: Garmr

[mhsmith0]

You've proven it worthless? You've certainly STATED that it's worthless but I must have missed the proof part.

As far as ct goes, I find his points kind of notable,me specially since we now know he's town. Feel free to re-debunk them though if you think it productive. Barring a much better lynch argument popping up, you're where I'm at.

[mhsmith0]

@texcat: Re: 1559
1) I definitely get the argument that boon's actions on day 1 are plausible protecting a buddy, but I also think it's possible that he just was told to STFU and not hammer a townie by his wolf-buddies. As a mafia PR, it's important for him not to get lynched early on. So while I'd consider it a point of suspicion, I wouldn't necessarily consider it damning given boon's role.

2) Lowell trying to draw a PR claim may be a fair point. Definitely not a positive. OTOH he did comment on that at 955, so that may at least plausibly be a reasonable explanation.

3) 1034-1036 is a somewhat selective reading of Lowell. 1034 and 1036 came after boon's PR claim; I'm not sure it's unreasonable for him to react that way in the situation. 985 was an interesting vote. It's plausible giving up on a wolf-buddy, getting in on a wagon that was going down regardless... but it's also very plausible town process on reading boon.

Overall, I'm not strongly against a Lowell lynch. I think Garmr is a better lynch, though.

[mhsmith0]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

+1 on this. Garmr, if you want to send meta that supports this with any kind of consistency, feel free. Otherwise I'm not buying it either.

[mhsmith0]

@dierfire

Really at this point I don't care whether we vote Garmr or Lowell. At the time of that statistical analysis, I believe my vote was on Garmr, but then I switched to Lowell because he started to seem more scummy and more people seemed in favor of voting him off. Either way, I plan on voting them off today and tomorrow.

I'd say I lean harder on garmr being wolf than Lowell, so would prefer lynching in that order.

[mhsmith0]

So no one actually has a case to lynch me OK.

That's pretty reductionist. Argue against the points made, or argue why Lowell or someone else is a better lynch.

[mhsmith0]

One more to go!

[mhsmith0]

Next step: mine Boon and Garmr to figure out the third wolf. Speaking of which...

If Lowell is town, exp is town.
If Lowell is scum, I'd like to think exp would also be scum.

If Lowell is town, madonna's hardcore scum.
Actually, I don't see Madonna and Lowell scum together. Madonna going for the quick lynch doesn't make sense unless it was a ploy.

hmm...