Mini 702--Serum & Steel(The rust has settled/Game Over)

[ortolan]

/confirm

[ortolan]

This should be fun.

Vote: Tony Montana

Serum: Illumina

Mycosynth: Wall-E

No reasons.

I shall give my thoughts on how to assign the blinkmoth serum later in the game day.

[ortolan]

Sorry if this seems a dumb question, I think you said this in the sign-up post but I don't remember and can't find it now.

Is this based on a novel series? Or is it based on magic: the gathering cards like google seems to suggest? I was just wondering for background reading purposes, lol.

[ortolan]

Some thoughts: simply voting for oneself for the serum without giving any justification is unlikely to entice others to also vote for you, therefore is not going to result in you getting the serum. The only way one could make it more appealing for others to vote for you and thus have a chance of being nominated for the serum is by either role claiming or at least hinting at one's role and the benefits that you getting the serum will bring to the town. I take it no-one's about to do this, at least at this stage. There is, I believe another way of assigning the serum (a very simple method also) but I don't think it's best I suggest it until the day has progressed and we've had far more discussion.

[ortolan]

Actually I came up with a different idea which people can give their thoughts on. If there's any townie, made of steel, who believes they would benefit the town by getting the serum, then they should claim. The fact they are made of steel may prevent them being nightkilled before they can use their ability or confer their benefits upon the town. It should also be an ability which is able to be verified by the town for what it did the following day, to preclude the possibility of them being scum. If they turn out to be scum lying and something happens other than what they claimed we can throw them in the mycosynth on day 2 and lynch them day 3 (come to think of it this may be argued to be a bad plan as a result). Of course another drawback is that it is more than possible that scum have an ability to remove steel themselves, depending on how many townies are made of steel.

While one problem with this plan is that the scum may be able to remove the serum-receiver's steel and kill them in the same night, I don't see a way round this regardless of who we give the serum to. By giving the serum to someone we risk them being nightkilled anyhow (however if there is a doctor role they'd want to target the receiver).

There is also the possibility there may be an argument for assigning the serum without any role-claiming. If scum do not know what the player can do with the serum then they do not know whether it's worth killing them or not.

Any thoughts on any of these approaches?

[ortolan]

I don't think anyone should claim until the town has discussed which approach is the best.

[ortolan]

So do you know what the serum will do to you?

[ortolan]

Am I correct in interpreting from the first post that we are free to quote our role pms in the thread?

Perhaps you should do so if that is the case (I see no harm as you've already claimed)

I would advise against anyone else claiming at this stage however.

[ortolan]

I'd be fine with giving you the serum then, but I'll wait for other comments first.

The only slight reservation I have is that in my role pm, unlike yours, it seems as though my powers from the serum are kind of "hinted" at (although I could be wrong). In your case I don't see anything like that. However I hardly think that's a good reason to think you made it up. I hope it will be an ability you can offer some proof of the next day.

Also,

Unvote all

[ortolan]

Some thoughts: simply voting for oneself for the serum without giving any justification is unlikely to entice others to also vote for you, therefore is not going to result in you getting the serum. The only way one could make it more appealing for others to vote for you and thus have a chance of being nominated for the serum is by either role claiming or at least hinting at one's role and the benefits that you getting the serum will bring to the town. I take it no-one's about to do this, at least at this stage. There is, I believe another way of assigning the serum (a very simple method also) but I don't think it's best I suggest it until the day has progressed and we've had far more discussion.

One finds this statement useful - obvious but useful. One wonders why one would vote for someone else with no reason considering the merits listed above.

I intended to illustrate that simply voting for oneself without claiming serves no purpose.

One also finds no merit in talking about talking about a plan while waiting for discussion when one knows that the fact such a plan exists will shape said discussion.

I actually did have an alternative in mind. This was that we let a fair portion of the day go past and then simply nominate who we found the least scummy for the whole day. Hopefully we would get a townie and then the mafia would have no idea of their role or possible serum abilities and whether they were worth nightkilling. My reasons were for not stating this plan up-front is that it would have given mafia players a reason to act particularly unscummy were they aware of it up-front.

One expected this to happen. One did not expect it so early.

However, one also knew that if PM's were available that our Mod would give evil ones claims that were safe.

That is, admittedly, a possibility.

One is very hesitant in giving a metalloid the serum. One is also even more hesitant that it has been done this early to one that was willing to vote for oneself to gain said serum.

No-one has said he should get the serum yet, he only has one vote the serum so far which he has placed. It is regretful that he claimed so early but it can't be helped now.

[ortolan]

Firstly, here's hoping for an Obama victory

But I have to take you up on something:

I am the best candidate to get a power because I will become immune to the whole night-kill process

What do you mean by that? "become" implies a change you will undergo as a result of taking the serum. If you are suggesting you will "become" immune because you are metal then you already metal, so this doesn't make sense.

If you are suggesting you will "become" immune in some additional sense having taken the serum, then I thought you didn't know what the serum would do to you?

Care to comment?

[ortolan]

I actually did have an alternative in mind. This was that we let a fair portion of the day go past and then simply nominate who we found the least scummy for the whole day. Hopefully we would get a townie and then the mafia would have no idea of their role or possible serum abilities and whether they were worth nightkilling. My reasons were for not stating this plan up-front is that it would have given mafia players a reason to act particularly unscummy were they aware of it up-front.

We find this a better course. We wish it would have been taken. The one taken is not a good one. The fact that this better plan was just kept quiet until unveiling versus what has happened is worth noting.

There was a reason I kept it quite, which I have already given. Namely that it would encourage scum to act as un-scummy as possible in order to attract the vote. We can still go for this plan, especially if no-one else claims. It was unfortunate Timeater claimed when he did. I really hope no-one gets the impression I tried to engineer my suggestion so that people were encouraged to give Timeater the serum specifically.

Er, thats a typo. Just like how I said "As I player, I dont really have any gimmicks are obvious "tells" - typing 'are' when I meant "or" - I meant to type "I am" in that instance.

That has to be noted also I'm afraid.

In my role PM I have an indication that the serum will grant me powers. I see no such indication in Timeater's PM. For that reason alone, I will not vote to serum Timeater.

As I've stated, my role pm also seems to suggest I will gain certain powers from the serum. This is another reason to be somewhat suspicious of Timeater's role claim.

Perhaps everyone could give an indication of the extent to which their role pm suggests what power they will gain if they get the serum (but do not reveal your role or what the benefit of the serum is). If it turns out everyone's does but Timeater's then we'll have good evidence for a fakeclaim.

I in fact now think it may be a good idea to go with my original suggestion: let discussion take place and ultimately vote to give the serum to least scummy player without any roleclaims. It seems too risky to give Timeater the serum, especially in light of SpyreX's point in 54:

After wasting the valuable serum day 1 and, in fact, not being able to kill me directly the next day you can after I've done massive amounts of damage if I am scum (and you have no reason to think I am town) kill me - ps I have also claimed a role that will by nature force kills onto someone else and give me a perfect reason why, if I am lying, I in fact will never be NK'd

If Timeater has no idea what the serum will do for him then there's no particular reason to give it to him. Additionally if he is indeed made of steel he's (barring scum having a remove steel skill) safe from a nightkill anyhow.

[ortolan]

[/quote]Do you think I just made the role up? Do you think I'm lying about the role? Or do you think that just because there isn't indication about serum there will be no effect when I get power? According to Nati's original post in the queue, anyone could get powers. And I dont see any rules about metal players not being able to recieve powers the benefits of serum. [/quote]

I don't want to talk about probabilities but it is certainly *possible* you made the role up, or are lying about the details. Perhaps the mod could clarify if indeed everyone gains some power from the blinkmoth serum.

[ortolan]

I highly doubt a lynched metallic person's alignment would be revealed. That would make it far too easy for town metal players (of whom Timeater claims to be one) to clear themselves.

[ortolan]

Few things:

I think it is in town's best interests to assign the serum each day, if it is correct as someone suggested that town proportion is around 75%. Unless of course to balance this the powers the scum gain from the serum outweigh the helpful powers the townies gain from getting it, to balance it out.

I also strongly get the impression that the proportion of mafia who are steel would be greater than the proportion of townies who are steel. I could be wrong, however it is also strongly implied by Timeater's role pm: "you decide to help the fleshies", assuming he is telling the truth about it.

I am all for randomly assigning the serum but how are we going to do it?

Is it indeed possible to manipulate the random dice rolls? If so how is this going to work? Also, presumably everyone should contribute to the random picking with their own dice roll, but is how is that going to work also? Are we just going to do it according to whose number comes up the most often?

[ortolan]

Sorry, I think I need another rule clarification. I think from Nicholas Bolas' previous post the serum/mycosynth, if they've reached a majority vote, only get assigned once someone has been lynched.

If this is the case, what does "serum only lasts one day/night cycle mean"

Does that mean it only lasts for the night straight after it was assigned, or the next day also?

[ortolan]

Let's not do it based on just one person's dice roll. Y'know, just in case.

[ortolan]

Serum: Tuberkulos

Seeing as he's going to be getting the serum now anyhow it wouldn't hurt if he'd post just a little.

[ortolan]

Mycosynth: Seraphim

for only making one, contentless post

Vote: Illumina

for not posting yet

[ortolan]

just out of curiosity how do people even attempt to edit the dice? Do you need to edit the html or something?

Whenever I preview a dice roll it appears in the preview window but uneditable, and otherwise I couldn't get that indented effect it has.

[ortolan]

How do you get it to say "fixed" then?

[ortolan]

I think that if anyone gets the Serum, he/she should post the following morning with whatever role they recieved and what they did with it that night.

I agree with this, I kind of expected this would happen when I put forward my plan. After all, there's not really much harm in scum finding out what the ability is after it's been used once, because using the serum on somebody twice means they will die if not given it continually, and I don't think we're going to want to be giving the serum twice to anybody early in the game.

To

Wall-E

and everyone else, I think if you believe TE actually

is

metal, whether you think he's town or scum, you should

not

be trying to lynch him, as you are essentially voting to no-lynch. Also, if he is town, you are proving to the scum that he's metal without them testing it out with a kill of their own. (I doubt scum would try this, but you see my point.)

I agree with this argument also. I don't think whether Timeater is metal or not is really in question, it is more a matter of his alignment. The only reason I can think of for him claiming to be a metal townie when in fact he is fleshie scum is that it would provide an excuse as to why he was not night-killed immediately after gaining the serum. He can say scum didn't target him because, of course, he is metal. That said I'm not sure the benefits of this in the case he got the serum outweighed the possibility we would vote to lynch or mycosynth him, either of which would reveal whether he is metal or not. So in summary we should be debating his alignment but probably not whether he is metallic/non-metallic.

[ortolan]

Also, I am still for the random serum assigning method but there seems to be a slight issue.

Tuberkulos, the beneficiary of the random serum vote has only made two posts in the thread- a confirmation one and an entirely contentless one. There may be two reasons not to give the serum to him. Firstly, if he has been this inactive he may not even bother or get the chance to put in a night action. Secondly if people think lurking to that degree makes it more likely that he is scum then it may be worthwhile to reconsider.

That said I am not in any way trying to undermine the random process which led to the allocation of serum to him, but there may be good pragmatic reasons for randomly selecting someone else to give the serum to- perhaps we could randomly select from the sufficiently active players this game? While lurking doesn't necessarily indicate one is scum, it seems contributing in large quantities certainly wouldn't suggest one is scum either. Furthermore selecting someone who's actually going to use the serum and has contributed in decent quantities will make for a more interesting game and (possibly) make town more likely to win.

[ortolan]

This was supposed to be connected to my first post but I hit 'Submit' by accident.

Seraphim

, I'm against the idea of posting what we do with the Serum right away. As scum, there's nothing I like more than seeing a town lay out every piece of information they have hoping it will strengthen the town. It's incredibly easy for scum to take what appears to be a well thought out plan and turn it on it's head because

they know things we don't

. To assume they won't be able to manipulate ideas put in plain daylight is underestimating your opponent. I think how the serum is used by each player is circumstantial, so we shouldn't have a policy that applies to every circumstance...

If you let the dice pick, you're taking away valid judgments that can be made towards a person's ability to choose wisely. I'm not worried about random voting giving the serum to scum, I'm worried about giving it to a townie that will waste it or use it ineffectively.

This seems _slightly_ contradictory because the whole idea of random voting is that there is nothing systematic in it that the scum can try to manipulate. Your very idea of giving it to the townie judged the "best" seems to be something that could easily fit into the category of something the scum could manipulate. That's why I proposed random voting within certain constraints i.e. only among those who have contributed a certain amount. I explained why I didn't believe this made us more likely to pick scum because simply posting lots doesn't make one more likely to be scum, indeed there may be a small effect that posting less makes you more likely to be scum, on average.

As far as I can tell, there are no side effects to throwing a non-metal player into the mycosynth. As such, I think a mycosynth majority should happen

every day

. There

will

be at least 1 metal scum, I'm sure of it.

I agree, I think it should be used every day. Also, Timeater's role pm claim strongly implies that the majority of townies are flesh. Assuming 3? scum I'd say 2-3 of them would be metal, but I could be wrong. Of course the mycosynth might be a red herring and only 1, or 0 of the actual scum are metal but I don't know how sadistic Natirasha is

I checked page 1, and I am entitled as a replacement to request to extend the deadline by 3 days. Does anyone need it? I thought it'd take me longer than this to catch up but I'm okay now.

I personally would prefer the game moved quickly but not at the expense of everyone actually getting the chance to contribute before the day ends. If an extension is felt necessary by others I would support it.

Seraphim got voted for not being around, then immediately showed up out of thin air. That tells me he's paying attention and choosing not to post.

That is, admittedly a little bit suspicious unless Seraphim can offer an explanation?

[ortolan]

Mycosynth: Wall-E

If you are fleshie as you claim then it's not gonna do any harm. If you're not then why would you lie, unless you're scum? I don't suspect you more than anyone else but in the absence of anyone better to mycosynth at present I'll go with you

Does anyone like my idea of redoing the random vote among only those players who've been contributing? Or do you want to stick with Tuberkulos?

[ortolan]

Is it still generally considered that we should try to lynch someone instead of doing the apparent equivalent of a no lynch by say, lynching Timeater?

Odd numbers favour town, don't they? The mafia would presumably get one night kill in tonight and we'd have 11 tomorrow and a better idea of the mechanics of the game. But of course it might still be better to try to lynch someone we think is scum.

[ortolan]

ortolan: What do you think is the best of the three plans outlined so far? Who do you think should get the serum?

Your post seemed to lack content. Please respond.

To get it clear: what we're choosing between is the random vote, which would entail giving it to Tuberkulos as we already decided that, the partially random vote (my idea), or the entirely-merit-based approach (which would basically just be voting as normal)? To answer your question I'm still not sure which is the best.

[quote="CF Riot]Now you're just agreeing with me but trying to hold on to some degree of randomness. What stipulates "active enough"? It's all going back to just judging who deserves it the most. Not only that, but if you put

this

idea out there, it's even easier for scum to benefit by making sure they post just enough to stay above the lurker mark to keep their name in the hat, while inactive/busy/lame townies drop out and raise the scums odds. And this even lets them stay quiet about who they think deserves the serum, which hides their intentions from us, making them harder to read. [/quote]

Well that's kind of what I wanted, a bit of randomness and some selection, that seems certainly no worse than the other options? What I intended was that only the people that have contributed up until now would get included. So I was thinking along the lines of CF Riot, Wall-E, Timeater, SpyreX, me, TonyMontana, Porkens, geraintm (from looking back over the thread). The more I think about it thought this system is just going to cause endless debate over who should be included, so perhaps we shouldn't go with it.

Which leaves us with, our original vote of random on Tuberkulos, or a merit-vote. I'm happy to go with either, especially as I really don't think it's fair that Tuberkulos hasn't contributed _anything_ yet, yet is looking to be the recipient of the serum.

So yer, perhaps the merit vote is the best idea after all.

[ortolan]

Also, I'm going to

Vote: Seraphim

While there's not a hugely strong case against him I don't like how he posted in other games and _only_ responded in this game when (and immediately after) it was suggested he was lurking. This implies, of course, that he _was_ lurking.

That brings him to 3.

Also, are we changing to a merit vote for the serum? I'm happy to.

[ortolan]

ortolan: Did you see my point about Seraphim's postings throughout the site? I grant you your own point about the timing, but I think the timing was just bad.

Yes, I did. Sorry I misread it though, I thought it said he posted 10 times elsewhere and once here but a skimpy post, but in fact you said _all_ his posts were skimpy. So yer, not a strong case really at all but I haven't found anyone else worthy of a vote so I'll leave the vote on in the absence of anyone better.

Also I couldn't help but notice from two of your old posts...

So you're for the plan as long as the recipient claims their power?

There's something off about that, but...

In light of the fact that it's public knowledge that the player DID receive a power, I think you may be right in this case. I'm going to throw support behind this suggestion.

I *believeeeee* earlier in the thread the mod mentioned that players may or may _not_ receive a benefit from the serum. I might be wrong though?

Also it is "bated breath"

I disagree with the meritocracy and removing lurkers from our random serum pool.

Scum is an arguably more exciting role than vanilla townie. I think vanilla townies are more likely to lurk than scum for this reason.

The meritocracy idea leaves us open to manipulation by the informed minority, and the purpose of the random serum d1 is to test the waters while minimizing risk to the town. I think I'd like to see Illumina get the serum D1. I think it's interesting that the random serum plan only started getting shot down AFTER we'd decided on a target for the serum, so there's always that angle. All in all, I want us to random serum today and switch to a meritorcacy tomorrow when we have a better idea of what we're dealing with re: we'll have one person who got serum'd and can tell us just what exactly it does/how we can best use it properly.

So.

Your point is taken. I am _more_ than happy to stick with the random vote but it is somewhat annoying that almost the only person who has done nothing the whole game is the recipient of the serum. But yes, the point about it being open to manipulation by the scum is a fair one. But I don't understand what this stuff is about Illumina? Didn't you just say that you wanted to maintain the random vote (which went to Tuberkulos) and then suggest we should give the serum to Illumina (someone who neither won the random vote nor has done much to earn the serum based on merit). I don't understand the break in logic.

Also I have to say something: if Tuberkulos hasn't even posted in 3 days why should we'd be sure he'll even be around to put in a night choice (assuming he can't also use his power the next day)? I am again, not particularly trying to overturn the serum decision but it is a small concern.

[ortolan]

I think it is in town's best interests to assign the serum each day, if it is correct as someone suggested that town proportion is around 75%. Unless of course to balance this the powers the scum gain from the serum outweigh the helpful powers the townies gain from getting it, to balance it out.

disagre, late game when the ratios migth have altered...

Sorry, I don't understand what point you're trying to make.

I also strongly get the impression that the proportion of mafia who are steel would be greater than the proportion of townies who are steel. I could be wrong, however it is also strongly implied by Timeater's role pm: "you decide to help the fleshies", assuming he is telling the truth about it.

gaming the mod, seems like a poor idea in this game at least untill we have one nights worth of info

I think it was a reasonable speculation personally. And after night one we still have zero info about the proportion of scum who are metal. And the "help the fleshies" part strongly implies the majority of town are not metal.

To

Wall-E

and everyone else, I think if you believe TE actually

is

metal, whether you think he's town or scum, you should

not

be trying to lynch him, as you are essentially voting to no-lynch. Also, if he is town, you are proving to the scum that he's metal without them testing it out with a kill of their own. (I doubt scum would try this, but you see my point.)

not quiet no-lynch, you do get the info on his metalicness, and day one when we have no info, might be better to go with that than trying to lynch scum when the odds are so bad.

No lynch may be a good idea independently of this (it is generally considered better for town to have an odd number of players. Am I right on this?) But I agree, I don't have any reason to doubt Timeater is metal. There is however some reason to be skeptical he is town.

CF's right. I agree with the let's-not-lynch-TE-and-waste-the-lynch argument. Let's either mycosynth or ignore him for today.

i don;'t get this, what you hopig to gain from this? i truly believe he is metalic, so what you planning on doing once you remove that from him?

I agree.

re orts posting on turbo's lurking. is his urking just in this game or site wide?

I just checked, looks like he hasn't posted at all since his last post in this thread on November the 3rd. He may need to be replaced anyway :S

About annocing serums power, say person got a cop ability, and he used it and got innocent on someone. is it a good idea to post that straight up then?

Probably not, but there is also value in evidence for the town that the recipient of the serum was actually town-aligned. It is hard to know how to balance these two issues.

[ortolan]

Thoughts on the mycosynth: Timeater has claimed metal and Wall-E has claimed flesh.

Thus I want to nominate someone other than those two for the mycosynth. I still think there's a very good chance most townies are fleshie. Thus if we end up mycosynthing a fleshie townie then we're fine, and if we mycosynth a steel scum then we're even better.

I think it's _really_ stupid to try to remove Timeater's metal pretty much for the sole reason that he early claimed. And I actually don't think we should myco Wall-E either. He's claimed to be town, and fleshie, why would he claim town fleshie rather than town steel if he was in fact mafia steel? Sure there are some possible reasons to, but none of them seem really worth the risk. I propose we use the mycosynth on someone who it will neither be wasted on or possibly entail disadvantage to the town.

So I'm going to

Mycosynth: Porkens

I'm keeping my vote on Seraphim, because I haven't seen anyone else play sufficiently suspiciously to vote for them.

I think Tuberkulos has a majority for the serum now, I think he has 7-8 votes depending on whether Wall-E has previously voted for him.

[ortolan]

Yer, as I said, that's a possibility, but I personally don't think the risk of making that claim then having it proved false (i.e. wtf...you told us you were fleshie already, why did you lie?) would be worth the alternative of simply claiming to be a metal townie.

[ortolan]

worth the alternative = better than the alternative (EBWOP)

[ortolan]

I just had the thought that we should be using the mycosynth and lynch together when we don't have a reason not to.

Pretty sure the mod said we can't myco/lynch someone in the same day.

Do we have a D1 lynch target yet? I don't think anyone's even built a case yet. I don't really want to lynch Porkens for the weak shit I voted him for.

Does ANYONE have ANYTHING to go on that I can get behind?

I have the same problem, no-one's really been scummy enough yet.

[ortolan]

Seeing as even the mod's away can we have an extension? I'm busy for the next ~44 hours

[ortolan]

No problem, happens to the best of us (I recently got extremely agitated in a newbie game).

Point about the mycosynth: Timeater and Wall-E have both claimed metal/flesh status respectively. I think we should use the myco on someone who hasn't yet claimed. (Going back I realised I already made this point, see post number 255)

That's why I'm going with

Mycosynth: CF Riot

I'm happy to go back to my previous vote for Porkens if that is preferred.

[ortolan]

I am Triskelion.

I am a "steel fleet" a town aligned steel being. According to my flavor, I noticed a hole in the razor fields, saw a war waging, and decided to help the fleshies. I win when my faction is the last standing.

If received, I will give full disclosure, and cooperate in any way I can to help verify my claim.

I don't know why everyone keeps ignoring this. Assuming Timeater is telling the truth about his role, this _strongly_ implies that all other townies, or at least the majority, are fleshie. Thus they have nothing to lose by being put in the mycosynth.

Also, ortolan's logic about who to synth is terrible. You don't want to synth a claimed steel or a claimed flesh, which leads to the question, who do you want to synth? You say the choice is people who haven't claimed, but this seems to advocate everyone claiming their steel/flesh status, which I would argue against. At some point, you have to throw someone in regardless of what they told you they are. I think Wall-E should be that someone.

What I meant was they have both made claims and I at this point have no good reasons for doubting either of them. I think if we can get a bandwagon going to synth a different player who then can simply claim metal/flesh then we might have something else to go on.

not quiet no-lynch, you do get the info on his metalicness.

Yes, but coming from the idea that you

believe

that they are metal, there's no point in confirming that they are, especially by wasting a lynch.

This falls into the same category as wanting to synth Wall-E. Do you have any good reason to believe he is scum, and lying about being flesh? If not, why do you advocate wasting a mycosynth on him?

Regarding synthing me, I suggest you do not. Wall-E is a much better choice. There is no sweet-talking. I am town, which is all you need to know to not synth me.

This does not follow... Why should we be more likely to think you are town than Wall-E, and even then why is thinking you're town enough reason not to synth you anymore than it is Wall-E?

Since we can't 'synth and lynch a metal to death in one night, I think we'd be better off just lynching the scummiest person while synthing the next scummiest person.

Of course, at L-1 we'll get a claim, and we can decide from there.

I'm still in favor of synthing time-eater. His claim still puts him at the top of my scum-list right now. And as per my previous 'prediction,' I think he'll be semi-safe as town anyway, so my vote stays for that.

I don't see this either...Not that I'm accusing you or CF Riot, but it seems to me, that assuming Wall-E and Timeater are telling the truth about their roles (which obviously is a big assumption), then the best outcome scum could want is to mycosynth Timeater. This way they remove the metal from a townie who can then be killed. The second best outcome is to ensure the mycosynth gets wasted on someone, rather than potentially used on a scum who will then by lynchable. Funnily enough, these are the two positions occupied by Porkens and CF Riot respectively.

I'd really like to see a good case against, firstly Wall-E, and secondly Timeater if you want to continue attacking them, because I haven't seen a good one so far.

I think I should also defend Seraphim at this point. Porkens, in the above post, seems to be arguing we should lynch Seraphim because he wants to "waste the synth on Wall-E". However this is exactly the same thing that CF Riot (who is also voting for Seraphim) advocates. If we've got a good argument for lynching Seraphim it should be internally consistent. It seems the bandwagon on him is not internally consistent, however.

That said I'm going to keep my vote on Seraphim (I believe he's on 4 votes at the moment) because I wouldn't mind hearing a claim from him. That said there is something I like about the idea of lynching him but also mycosynthing CF Riot, who started the bandwagon against Seraphim and also seems somewhat reluctant to be 'synthed.

That said I'd also like an explanation from Seraphim for this:

First of all, your color tags didn't work. Second...

Seraphim, if the serum-ee decides when and if to reveal his actions, how can we have a policy of asking?

We'll ask, certainly, but any sort of information that we could glean from that night, IMO, is beneficial to the town. The scum will know exactly who the secret roles will be in this game, so the special roles need to make sure that if, say, they got a guilty result on someone, that the town knows that as soon as possible.

What does the "the scum will know exactly who the secret roles will be in this game" mean? I don't follow...

I hope this post isn't too long.

[ortolan]

It says he, being a metal being, "decides to help the fleshies". This implies he is a steel character helping those who are simply flesh i.e. town.

[ortolan]

However, I think I see what he is saying about declairing night actions after getting the serum.

I don't know if you misunderstood or simply misspoke. Maybe I'm just reading your post other than you meant it. No one should declare their night actions before they do them. It was debated whether or not they should declare night

results

, which I am against but is more plausible.

The question is does the benefit scum might be less likely to target them that night because they don't know what the serum outweigh the drawback of the fact that the recipient won't have to claim till the day after (i.e. if they are scum, giving them a chance to make something up or just say "oh hehe actually I didn't get an ability). That said, the mod said the power lasts through the night "and the next day", but I'm not quite sure what this means, presumably some abilities can only be used at night in which case they will have to be used the night following the day they are received, which leaves us with the same problem.

Also, ortolan's logic about who to synth is terrible. You don't want to synth a claimed steel or a claimed flesh, which leads to the question, who do you want to synth? You say the choice is people who haven't claimed, but this seems to advocate everyone claiming their steel/flesh status, which I would argue against. At some point, you have to throw someone in regardless of what they told you they are.

What I meant was they have both made claims and I at this point have no good reasons for doubting either of them. I think if we can get a bandwagon going to synth a different player who then can simply claim metal/flesh then we might have something else to go on.

You have no good reason to doubt anyone that claims either on D1. No matter who you bandwagon or whether they claim steel or flesh, you have equal reason to doubt/believe all of them. Simply wagoning everyone one at a time as they claim would be stupid. Taking it to the 3rd in line is no more logical than going all the way to the end.

The difference is that I *believe* both their claims, or at least have been presented no good reason to doubt them. I thought, and still do, that if we got a synth bandwagon going on someone else we might get a claim out of them. I still believe that, in keeping with Timeater's role claim, townies are more likely to be flesh than scum. Thus if we were to get another person claiming steel we should be suspicious of them, and if we get someone claiming flesh we can choose whether we believe their claim of flesh more or less than Wall-E's. That said we don't particularly need to start another synth bandwagon, because as it looks like Seraphim's being targetted for a lynch we will get a claim out of him before the day's through, which will fill my goal.

Also I've been meaning to check this for a while:

Mod: when we put someone in the mycosynth will we find out if they were metal or flesh before going in?

No you will not

coming from the idea that you

believe

that they are metal, there's no point in confirming that they are, especially by wasting a lynch.

This falls into the same category as wanting to synth Wall-E. Do you have any good reason to believe he is scum, and lying about being flesh? If not, why do you advocate wasting a mycosynth on him?

This is not the same in any way. Lynching someone you believe is metal will send the game to night for the scum to kill, while giving the town no information about that persons alignment. If we myco Wall-E, or anyone, we

know

they are now flesh. Whether or not they were before is irrelevant. I do not

believe

Wall-E is flesh like the other people were believing TE was steel. These two situations are only vaguely similar, and I believe my position is perfectly logical.

Ok, why do you not believe Wall-E's claim to be flesh? I have seen you give no good reason not to. Even if *you* apparently have a gut instinct you must give some valid justification if you expect others to go along with you.

Regarding synthing me, I suggest you do not. Wall-E is a much better choice. There is no sweet-talking. I am town, which is all you need to know to not synth me.

This does not follow... Why should we be more likely to think you are town than Wall-E,

You shouldn't. You have equally as much reason to believe him as me.

and even then why is thinking you're town enough reason not to synth you anymore than it is Wall-E?

I do not think Wall-E is town. I know that I am. Also, Wall-E said he was okay with being synthed. I am not.

What you are saying here is contradictory. You are saying Wall-E is a much better choice (than you). You say "there is no sweet-talking" (I don't understand what this relates to). Then you say we have no more reason to think you are town than Wall-E. WHY then, is Wall-E a much better choice than you?

Also, what you have said is ambiguous, are you claiming to be steel here? Otherwise why would you have any particular objection to being mycosynthed? I understand people's points about Wall-E flopping around on whether he is happy to be mycosynthed or not. It is possible (but as I already said kind of unlikely as the risks would seem to outweighh the benefits) that Wall-E is scum metal claiming flesh townie to avoid suspicion, which would explain why he is on the one hand seemingly happy to be synthed and on the other subtly trying to avoid it. However, another explanation for his flopping around is that he is simply town flesh and that, while he is town flesh and thus knows it won't hurt him to be mycosynthed, he would prefer if the mycosynth wasn't *wasted* on him. I understand this, as this is basically the same way I feel.

it seems to me, that assuming Wall-E and Timeater are telling the truth about their roles (which obviously is a big assumption),

This

is

a big assumption. Too big at this point. The rest of what you said doesn't matter to me because I do

not

believe Wall-E's flesh claim with no backing.

I don't understand why you think a flesh claim without any explicit backing is likely to be a lie. I suspect town fleshie is the most common class of people in the game, I can't see it as likely that any other combination is more prevalent. Why then, would you particularly doubt someone's claim that they fall into this category. Simply saying that they "don't back it up" seems a terrible argument, I'd hope you'd have some justification for your suspicions.

I think I should also defend Seraphim at this point. Porkens, in the above post, seems to be arguing we should lynch Seraphim because he wants to "waste the synth on Wall-E". However this is exactly the same thing that CF Riot.

Defending Sera on these grounds is defending him because Porkens is not attacking me. Whether or not Porkens is attacking me has nothing to do with Sera's alignment unless you think Porkens is my scum buddy.

I am not really "defending" him, more saying that logic of the bandwagon against him is internally inconsistent. Porkens says he is voting for him for being willing to mycosynth Wall-E. You are willing to mycosynth Wall-E, and are also voting for him, for different reasons (namely that you apparently don't believe his claim to be "town fleshie"). And to your second sentence: I believe I openly entertained the possibility in my last post that you and Porkens were scumbuddies. The fact that you are both on the same bandwagon with diametrically opposed justifications for being there gives a bit of extra support to this possibility. But be aware I'm not suggesting at this point that you and Porkens are scumbuddies, but merely entertaining the notion in light of your respective positions.

why you picking on wall-e?

I feel like it. He seemed like a good avenue to pursue upon replacing in. Also, I don't know what my quote has to do with what you said about me. (Post 309)
----
TE's post 322 is exactly why I want to Myco Wall-E.

"I feel like it" is a pretty bad justification if you want to convince people and makes you look scummy. And there is the possibility that Wall-E's flip-floppiness on being mycosynthed is evidence of his being scummy, but as I said I believe the risks of pursuing a strategy where he fakeclaimed fleshie seem to outweigh the benefits, and furthermore my alternate explanation that he is a townie not wanting to waste the mycosynth seems more plausible.

[ortolan]

Btw mod, I've been voting for Seraphim since post 225

[ortolan]

Post 215:

Seems suspicious is an awfully weird case.

I'm flesh, so be gentle when you lower me in that vat. I don't want to bruise a knee.

[ortolan]

So you want to no lynch, or lynch someone else? Cause we've got a bit of a dilemma if we're gonna end up lynching the *second* most suspected person.

I think Seraphim should claim before we decide whether to synth or lynch him

[ortolan]

ortolan, I don't see why you are defending wall-e so strongly, the only proof you have to go on is that he said he was flesh and town, not even a role pm. you're so willing to take his word on the matter simply because you ASSUME from TE's pm that most townies are flesh, so by that thinking anyone who just says "hey I'm not metal" should be cleared.

It's just a case of outguess the mod, and a poor one at that. just by the law of averages town is likely to have as many if not more metals than scum have.

I guess I'm just tired of you stating that as fact and no one calling you on it.

I believe I have mentioned in every post that it is assuming they are telling the truth. I have also mentioned I have no reason to doubt their claims at this stage, and thus reason as I did.

And I don't agree that the law of averages applies here. Unless the scum have 1+ abilities which can remove steel it would be very unfair for them- they don't have a mycosynth of their own, and assume for example there's like 3 metal townies in the end game- they're not going to be able to kill anyone. So yes, I think scum are more likely to be metal.

CF Riot: point taken about defending Wall-E, and Seraphim, but I'd like to think my level of sympathy with them in my posts is kind of directly proportional to your level of aggression in attacking them (in true devil's advocate style).

No other comments at this stage.

[ortolan]

lol, there's absolutely no way I'm changing from the random vote without good reason.

Mod: Are you looking for a replacement for Tuberkulos? His last post anywhere on mafiascum was in this thread, 9 days ago.

[ortolan]

So basically you have no basis to undermine the random vote based on the inactivity of the recipient. So wait, what was your basis again?

[ortolan]

Not going on the offensive this post; I just want to ask CF Riot why he has a preference for giving SpyreX the serum over anyone else. If i recall correctly you said in a previous post that you had some reasoning for assigning it to who you wanted to, who turned out to be SpyreX. May I why you'd like SpyreX to have the serum specifically?

[ortolan]

lol...looks like Tuberkulos is back boys.

Good timing too.

[ortolan]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=825

I hope he's gonna post here also, lol. I'll have to assume he's catching up on some reading in this or another game.

[ortolan]

@Gremwell; I don't want to assume that the law of averages applies to metal. Don't read this as outguessing the mod but; I don't think he would assign metal randomly to both scum and town. My gut tells me that most, if not all, of the scum are metal, and the town has few, if any, metal roles. My guts been wrong before, but until proved otherwise, I'll expect a worst-case scenario and go with it.

just starting to worry me your thinking, all coming from the claim by time...it seems like that little thing is clouding yor judgement too much

I agree with Porkens on this point. That's all for now.

[ortolan]

I'm all for calling SpyreX's possible gambit on this one.

Vote: SpyreX

I think having asked to be lynched and what he said in post 418 we can't really let him live. He's claimed to be flesh- if he doesn't die we've got ourselves a scum, if he does die then what he flips will give the town a great deal of information

I also, however, agree with him about mycoing Timeater. I think it's too big a gamble for town to leave Timeater as claimed steel having lynched SpyreX.

Myco: Timeater

That said, I don't like how Seraphim has come back having been inactive and merely made a "please state your arguments against me post", then quite passively suggested maybe he should claim. He has still barely posted anything of content. This is in fact the main reason for the potential lynch on him. It's possible he's just a lurky town player but it also seems a fairly viable mafia strategy to play the way he has.

That said MafiaSSK getting the serum seems a reasonable result to me so far.

[ortolan]

Please if you agree/disagree with this plan, state why; and if you agree, vote accordingly.

I would hope SpyreX at the very least would vote in support of his own plan.

[ortolan]

So Spy says he wants us to lynch him and synth TE. TE should be just fine with this if he believes Spy is scum. The fact that he isn't ALL OVER this idea is a tell in and of itself.

This seems all the more reason to go with the plan. Either way, we're going to get *a lot* of information out of it.

[ortolan]

His claimed role pm suggests it.

Why should I be fine with the town losing its only metalloid? D1 no less?

Why is that ok?

When SpyreX self-votes sure, I'll jump on the wagon.

In the worst case scenario, if you're both town, then we'll have a lynched townie and someone who the scum may/may not decide to kill that night. If you weren't put in the myco they would just choose someone else to kill who, again assuming your role pm is true, would be guaranteed to be flesh. There's really absolutely no justification for not going with SpyreX's plan.

[ortolan]

CF Riot, if we lynch SpyreX then it basically confirms you, and to a lesser extent Porkens as town. That is part of the motivation. If neither of you is lynched there is going to be *extremely* strong suspicion, not least from me, for the rest of the game against you and SpyreX. I don't see how you could possibly not be in favour of something that will essentially clear you as town for the rest of the game.

That said, I already believe Spyre to be town. Before the last two days I believed TE to be town. Going along with the gambit in this scenario leads to 2 straight mislynches. I think this is what Ort is aiming for with supporting the gambit. However, I am starting to doubt TE. Either way, I do think Sera is a great lynch today.

In three sentences you have expressed suspicion of three different people, including me. That is noted.

There is some case against Seraphim for his lurking, but I am increasingly skeptical of you doggedly pursuing his case when, if SpyreX is telling the truth, lynching him has clear benefits to both town and you personally. I would really like to hear from the people who aren't already heavily invested in the debate as to what they think of the plan.

[ortolan]

I'd honestly be MUCH MUCH happier with lynching ortolan, Seraphim, or, well, CF Riot.

From my point of view, BEST case scenario; we intentionally misslynch today and, if this town can pull it together (which I kinda doubt), we lynch a de-mettaled scum tomorrow.

There are my reservations.

It's not an intentional mislynch at all. He has asked to be lynched, brilliant. If he flips scum, awesome. CF Riot and you are then implicated. If he doesn't then it vindicates CF Riot (because he has supported him all game and argued very strongly for him receiving the serum, which if CF Riot was scum and he wasn't, there is no reason for CF Riot to do) and, to a lesser extent, you (who I believe he has defended several times). If you lynch someone else, such as me or Seraphim, and we flip innocent, you could still all be in league with each other for all town knows.

And please don't pretend there is *any* coherent case at this point for me being scum. The person who I have been most consistently defensive of all game, Timeater, is one I am happy to mycosynth for the good of the town,

in

the context of SpyreX's plan where he gets lynched too.

[ortolan]

Unsynth

I'm only supporting Timeater getting synthed *if* SpyreX (I might be happy to settle for anyone else in my suspected trio at this point) gets the lynch

[ortolan]

Lol, you guys have pretty much backed yourself into a corner.

SpyreX, CF Riot and Porkens are inarguably very strongly linked to one another. Skimming the game history I see SpyreX put a serum vote on for Porkens in 107 (arguably a joke vote)

Post 209 CF Riot: "I read Porkens as pro-town". This sentence stands by itself in the middle of the post with no justification, lol.

On the way look @ 228 where SpyreX "likes everything CF Riot" says. I'm just picking these out when they happen to catch my eye.

It's also blatantly obvious they've consistently bandwagoned Timeater, and, to a lesser extent Wall-E (from what I can recall)

And look at Natirasha's vote post 272, after it had been determined to randomly assign the serum. Note randomly, as in not prone to scum interference:

"Porkens(1): SpyreX
Tuberkulos(7): Timeater, ortolan, TonyMontana, geraintm, Wall-E, Seraphim, Illumina "

Again these three stand out from the rest- none of them are voting for the intended random recipient of the serum. The only other people not voting are Tuberkulos himself (inactive), and Gremwell (also relatively inactive all game IIRC).

In post 365 CF Riot starts his campaign to give SpyreX the serum (later he suggests it's something to do with SpyreX expressing great logic all game or something, funny that you guys have unwaveringly felt that way about each other all game).

-Four possibilities on this campaign: CF Riot has independently come to believe that SpyreX is a great, logical poster and thus wants to go against the whole random assignment thing in favour of his hunch. This seems pretty unlikely, but maybe is possible. Why would CF Riot go against the grain of random voting simply to serum someone he "thinks" has a good town vibe? Second possibility, CF Riot is scum and SpyreX is town. If so WHY would CF Riot go against the grain to give the serum to someone he knows will get a pro-town power? This is why neither of these first two possibilities are at all viable. The third, and I'm not gonna exclude this possibility just yet- they are masons. That is why they've been so close all game, and that is why they would want to serum one another. Fourth possibility: he's scum, and this was a blatant gambit to give the serum to scum. And just in case it isn't obvious what this means- CF Riot and SpyreX being independently town is implausible. CF Riot being scum and SpyreX being town is implausible. The only possibilities is that they are masons, or scum. This means, CF Riot, that your following quote:

How does Spyre flipping town say anything about mine or Porken's alignment? I don't think our 3 alignments are directly related that way. Yes, Spyre flipping scum would implicate me, and vice versa. Either of us flipping town shouldn't confirm either of the others as town though.

is simply wrong. SpyreX's flip dictates ALOT about your alignment. As the second possibility above (that you are scum and he is town) is implausible, if he flips town it STRONGLY implies you are also town. In this case at least, Porkens is a different matter, and you might suggest he can not be associated with you two in this case. Either way, I find it hard to believe you wouldn't recognise this and wouldn't support the plan in accordance. (makes me lean towards the hypothesis you're both scum and either being flipped would give the game away)

Read post 371 supports my thesis to the letter. Post 374, come on, this is BLATANT WIFOM, and not of the good variety.

The only, _only_ point of difference I see in this group the whole game is Porkens wants to keep the random serum assignment while CF Riot and SpyreX try to divert it (however Porkens obviously didn't like the random serum assignment enough to say...support it with his vote). It's eminently possible he's just seized on one minor point of difference with his buddies to try to distance them from one another.

Finally, post 418, SpyreX's gambit:

"I'll raise you one. I am not a metal. I can be hung today. If you're so sure about your "gambit" - hang me and offer yourself up for the lynch. If I'm scum, well, then your awesome abilities nailed two. When I flip town, they can hang you tomorrow and I double win."

Hey this sounds good to me, I'll vote in favour of it. Furthermore; I think, surely seeing as it's obvious CF Riot, SpyreX and Porkens are so strongly associated with each other, they would jump at the chance to have one of their number lynched and their alignment revealed, to vindicate them for the rest of the game. Oh wait.

[ortolan]

and I've got to answer Porkens' last few posts because they contain some truly horrible arguments.

Firstly, your question addressed to Timeater in the first place was stupid, as it was obvious what his claim to be the only metal townie was based on.

CF Riot, if we lynch SpyreX then it basically confirms you, and to a lesser extent Porkens as town.

It certainly would NOT do anything to confirm either of us, how can you possibly come to that conclusion?? Because they say they trust eachother?

Just answered this in my previous post so no need to tread over it again.

This worst case scenario scares the piss out of me. Yes, yes, lets misslynch and misssynth two town right off the bat. I call that risk a substantial justification for not following Spy's plan.

...

If neither of you is lynched there is going to be *extremely* strong suspicion, not least from me, for the rest of the game against you and SpyreX. I don't see how you could possibly not be in favour of something that will essentially clear you as town for the rest of the game.

God, strike my last post entirely. THIS is why we should hang him.

unvote

vote: Ortolan

And in case it isn't right;

unsynth

synth: Timeater

So instead of going with SpyreX's plan; which has the potential worst case consequence of "misslynching and missynthing two townies right off the bat" (and, I have already argued, give us strong evidence that CF Riot is townie and perhaps weaker evidence that you are), you'd rather go with your plan, which has the potential worst case consequence of...misslynching and missynthing two townies right off the bat, and additionally gives you exactly nothing to go on. You know that...I am dead and you know that...Timeater is now flesh, irrespective of whether he was previously. Furthermore seeing as Timeater and I have basically supported each other all game you just lynched/synthed two people in basically the same camp and have revealed absolutely about Timeater's alignment (obviously you will know mine when I am dead). This is honestly one of the worst arguments I've ever heard and supports my suspicion that you're not interested in good argument but more interested in pulling the wool over the eyes of the town. I'm about 80% sure at this point that you, CF Riot and SpyreX are all scum.

[ortolan]

absolutely about Timeater's alignment = absolutely nothing about Timeater's alignment

[ortolan]

3.) I will hammer myself. Gladly even. However, this aint happenin' until we have a majority on Time getting the synth.

I know this sooooooooooo isn't gonna happen. You will try and synth Timeater and then CF Riot, Porkens are you are gonna come up with some crummy reasons for lynching someone else (probably Seraphim).

[ortolan]

again, are you = and you (sorry for excessive caffeine intake)

[ortolan]

Ohh and after you lynch me, as a huge BTW: Scum are not going to have all of them hold hands and dance. I see the dancing circle according to Oro is all 3 of us.

Could either of them be scum? Sure.

Do I think so? Highly doubt it.

Am I willing to DIE to prove a point about what I'm saying about who I think ARE scum? Yessir.

Actions speak louder than words.

Let me just ask you one question: are you a mason with either of CF Riot or Porkens, or do you happen to be townies that loved the cut of one another's jibs from the get-go?

[ortolan]

Fantastic. I will wait for contributions from others before continuing.

[ortolan]

Saying that you present bad arguments (which you did) is not an insult.

Spy flipping town doesn't confirm that either I or CF are town. You should stop saying that it does.

Get your mind right, please.

This is nothing,

nothing

, but OMGUS on your part.

Um would you care to actually respond to my content-filled post (461) instead of just saying "no. We are not associated in any way." My post presents a very strong and clear argument for linking you together, and for why lynching SpyreX (or any other of you for that matter) will provide information about the others. CF Riot is in the same position, he is not in any way responding to my arguments but just suggesting I am unwaveringly "against" him for some unknown reason, when I clearly have very clear reasons for suspecting him.

And I find it ironic you would accuse *me* of OMGUS (how is anything I did OMGUS?) when in fact your reasons for voting me amount solely to OMGUS.

What is your case against me anyway? What I have done that is scummy this game? Furthermore if I was scum why would I take on three townies simultaneously? (having previously voted for Seraphim and possibly others also)

[ortolan]

BFF?

[ortolan]

Also Ort, truth be told, I'd be okay with synthing TE and lynching you without any crummy reason at all.

I know you would

What do you not get? None of Spyre, Porkens, or I are trying to get out of the others flipping scum. We get that part. We've all been fairly buddy-buddy so you think 3 people agreeing with each other means 3 scum. But we're trying to get you to figure out that one of us being town doesn't mean the others are town. How in the WORLD is that scum driven?

That's something of a moot point to at this stage as I believe the chance of any of you flipping town is about 1 in 100.

[ortolan]

Also; if you are all town (and you've already admitted you're not masons) why, WHY are you all so sure of each other's alignment? None of you have questioned each other's alignment even ONCE the entire game?

[ortolan]

Pointless WIFOM at this point.

Town; decide whether to lynch/synth me/Timeater or them, or a combination (which sounds good to me). Make sure you don't lynch me until I get the chance to claim.

[ortolan]

That's brilliant. Timeater's gonna get synthed and we'll have no evidence one way or another on my favourite trio. I hope some of the inactives post before the deadline.

[ortolan]

Oh well, at least the night actions will get resolved quickly because MafiaSSK, Porkens, CF Riot and SpyreX, who are apparently the only people with any, will all be here

[ortolan]

And here's my prediction for tonight: they'll kill either MafiaSSK or one of lurkers who's barely posted so that we get no info out of that either.

[ortolan]

And there's one more really, really good reason not to myco Timeater that I just thought of. If he's, as he claims to be, the only metal townie, then he's the only person that can ever get the serum without being immediately nightkilled by the mafia. If he's the only metal townie, and gets demetalled, then _any_ investigative role that gets activated by the serum can be immediately killed by the mafia that night before they can use it. Thus we can never verify anyone until they're dead, and we can't even be sure that scum will die the day we try to kill them- they might be made of metal. Wall-E, I urge you to reconsider your myco vote on Timeater.

Also, notice how basically no-one (apart from me to a large extent) has defended Timeater's claim to be metal townie, it has only brought him under a great deal of suspicion. With one can only assume 3 scum in this game, surely he would have received more support for his claim, at least from them, if he was trying to convince everyone he was town in order to get the serum. That's just my thoughts, I still think town is really, really exposing itself by not either synthing or lynching anyone in that group of three on the first day.

[ortolan]

But I'll hang you too if that's what needs to happen. And, hell, when you flip town I'll be 10000% cleared and probably a cop, so...that's good for me too!

How will anyone flipping anything confirm anyone town or scum?

See post 461.

[ortolan]

I do not have time to reply to the developments as I am writing an essay currently.

Mod: I have been voting for SpyreX since Post 435...

I don't have time to argue for why Gremwell's last post has no merit whatsoever unfortunately, I guess I will have to save it until the next day.

And seeing as some people apparently didn't understand why SpyreX flipping innocent will imply CF Riot is also innocent, I will reiterate:

CF Riot, contrary to the random serum bandwagon on Tuberkulos, attempted to argue for SpyreX getting the serum. IF CF Riot is scum and SpyreX is town, then it would be completely illogical for him to fly in the face of what had already been decided and argue that a *townie* should get the serum. However, if CF Riot is scum and SpyreX is scum then obviously he has a vested interest in giving the serum to his scumbuddy. Likewise if he is townie (which of course, I think is unlikely ) and independently came to the conclusion that SpyreX is townie, and thus wanted him to have the serum. This is why, contrary to what CF Riot and SpyreX themselves have argued, if SpyreX flips innocent this basically proves CF Riot is innocent also, and is why SpyreX's lynch is easily the most informative for the town. Please if you think there's any, ANY flaw in this argument I'd love to hear your reasoning right now. SpyreX, while I still think you're scum you still appear to try to ground your arguments in logic (which is more than I can say for Porkens, CF Riot and now Gremwell) so I'd LOOOOVE to hear from you specifically if you disagree with this argument and why.

[ortolan]

And I will back this up with action: If SpyreX gets hanged and flips innocent, I will not only give Porkens the benefit of the doubt for the rest of the game but I'll vote for him to get the serum tomorrow. Porkens I'm gonna love hearing your arguments for why SpyreX shouldn't get lynched now.

[ortolan]

Sorry, I meant to say I will give CF Riot the serum tomorrow. CF Riot: what are your arguments now?

You can still answer too, Porkens

[ortolan]

Just replace "Porkens" with "CF Riot" in Post 593.

[ortolan]

and one more thing (hehe): Porkens, CF Riot and SpyreX still have not provided any explanation for why they've been so chummy all game and always bandwagoned together. Even if you all happened to independently come to the conclusion that each other are town, this is extremely bad town play. Assuming people you're friends with are town is a good way to lose. And I certainly don't think SpyreX is that dumb.

[ortolan]

Sorry, just let me have one more post, this is really addictive.

SpyreX, if you are town, you will want town to win even after you are dead. Why the antagonism towards Timeater? So please have a read of the following. Why are you willing to sacrifice your own life to get rid of him? I personally don't think your argument in post 549 is particularly strong, long, certainly, but it doesn't seem to prove much beyond treading the same points you already have.

Furthermore, seeing as you support lynching yourself, when you flip town, seeing as you've carried on all game as though you support CF Riot and Porkens, why are you so happy to have them vindicated by your lynch? And if you're town and CF Riot is scum, why would he possibly argue to give you the serum? And why were all three of you trying so hard to convince town that you flipping innocent would say nothing about them? My above argument clearly shows your alignment will give us a read on CF Riot.

And if you're town and intend to be lynched today you have absolutely, absolutely no reason not to quote your role pm in the thread immediately

and finally my name is "ortolan", I don't get where the "oro" abbreviation comes from; I would think "ort" would be more appropriate but I'm not picky and you can call me what you like

[ortolan]

Um...my vote still hasn't been added to SpyreX...I'll do it again if necessary.

I'm a man of my word so I'll still vote to synth Timeater first but I'm not sure if he has a majority (I can't tell because the vote count may well be wrong again)

Unsynth. Synth: Timeater. Unvote. Vote: SpyreX

[ortolan]

There's no reason not to quote your role pm now SpyreX

And SpyreX, I'd love to know now (why are you so against answering my questions properly which would give town information)- If you're town and CF Riot is scum, why would he vote to give you the serum? Why do you not agree it clears him?

[ortolan]

...You were the one that suggested your own lynch, what the hell?

Why wouldn't you want to help town if you are town?

[ortolan]

You seem not concerned with playing for town but rather spiting me

[ortolan]

In accordance with my word,

Serum: CF Riot

I find it interesting MafiaSSK was not targeted as the recipient of the serum.

And, CF Riot, I think we already know what Gremwell will say as he already found me suspicious (not that he gave any reasons to)

I have a few ideas about avenues we can go down at this point but I will save them until more discussion has taken place.

[ortolan]

Wait...I just noticed what Nicolas was referring to in the first post. CF Riot got the serum, as well as MafiaSSK. Or perhaps MafiaSSK gave it to him...

I do recall Seraphim mentioning in the previous post that there might be a role which could give serum to others. If this is what happened then I'd be very interested to find out how he knew.

I'm not sure if this is relevant but another thing of note is that Wall-E was "consumed"

[ortolan]

I would think so.

I'm actually thinking, seeing as it's unlikely we're going to serum them again (as they will die unless they then get it every night) there may be a case for asking them what their serum did. There's no benefit to town in them trying to conceal their abilities from the mafia, as they're unlikely to get to use them again anyway. The only case we would want to serum them again is if we find out they have a really helpful ability in which case presumably they would have to claim anyway.

Thoughts on this? (Don't do it yet, CF Riot + MafiaSSK)

[ortolan]

If you voted to mycosynth me, you have no defense against not voting for me now. Just do it.

Even if that followed, which it doesn't, we have a lot of stuff to discuss before that decision is made

[ortolan]

I would think so.

I'm actually thinking, seeing as it's unlikely we're going to serum them again (as they will die unless they then get it every night) there may be a case for asking them what their serum did. There's no benefit to town in them trying to conceal their abilities from the mafia, as they're unlikely to get to use them again anyway. The only case we would want to serum them again is if we find out they have a really helpful ability in which case presumably they would have to claim anyway.

Thoughts on this? (Don't do it yet, CF Riot + MafiaSSK)

Well at the end of this day we will presumebly have 3 people with abilities. If the Mafia wants to kill someone with an ability it would be benefitial for them to know which one is the more powerful one.

My point is that unless they are going to get the serum again, their abilities won't be of any use. The only way they are going to get the serum again is by roleclaiming and demonstrating that the drawback of them getting the serum again (i.e. them dying unless they get it every turn from then on) is outweighed by the power of their ability.

Ok, I was on the phone earlier. I'll make real content now.

And, CF Riot, I think we already know what Gremwell will say as he already found me suspicious (not that he gave any reasons to)

Stop answering questions for other people. Also, I don't want the serum today, and I'm not going to say what it did to me

Please don't tell me not to pre-empt his response, as it seems clear to me (as you've said UNEQUIVOCALLY I'm scum without providing a proper case against me that I can actually respond to) one of the main reasons you've asked for his input is that you expect him to re-iterate his previous suspicion on me. And in answer to your second point I will repeat what I said above: if you don't intend to receive the serum again at *any* point in the game, I don't see any good pro-town reason not to claim what it gave you. If you *do* intend to receive the serum at a later point in the game then there may be a reason to withhold your ability, but bear in mind you'll have to claim then instead (as obviously no-one's going to give you the serum without you specifically requesting and justifying it, because it will simply kill you). If anyone doesn't understand my logic please seek clarification. If you have a criticism please critique.

[ortolan]

MafiaSSK I think you should use your judgement. As I said above, however, if you don't see yourself as wanting to use your ability again then there's no reason not to claim now as opposed to later. Even if you do intend to use it later you will presumably need to claim before that point, so again if there's no drawback to claiming now as opposed to at that point then there are good reasons for you claiming now.

[ortolan]

Cut it with the dice thing. It's annoying. Also, why do you have to make it so difficult? Why role 7 dice? IF you decide to random the serum (I still don't want to) just role 1 d10. Don't complicate it.

I agree, I don't think the serum should be randomed today.

[ortolan]

The only way they are going to get the serum again is by roleclaiming and demonstrating that the drawback of them getting the serum again (i.e. them dying unless they get it every turn from then on) is outweighed by the power of their ability.

Wrong again. Did you want to give me the serum yesterday? Did I get it? There are ways around your little rules, so stop acting like your opinion is the law of the land.

If I say, "Hey guys, my roles is the greatest ever, if I get serum'd again we win," scum kills me tonight no questions asked. If I say nothing, they have to make a choice. If they kill me, I may not even be serumed, leaving the person who is serumed that night wide open. If they kill someone else, I may get the serum again through the mystical ways I did last night and break the game with my powers. I'd prefer scum not knowing what will happen next, thank you.

obviously no-one's going to give you the serum without you specifically requesting and justifying it,

Last night. ;] Not everyone thinks like you pal.

This is a ridiculous straw man of my argument. What I said has nothing to do with me trying to impose "rules" either, it is simply common sense. I will reiterate. *AS* you have already received the serum once, if you receive it again, you will need to continue to receive it every turn thereafter otherwise you will die. With this in mind, wouldn't it be severely illogical for someone to give you the serum again? Firstly; they don't even know what the ability did- you haven't revealed what it did. So not only do they not know what your ability did but they have no reason to think you're town. Secondly, even if you were somehow confirmed as town, *even then* the only reason it would be prudent to give you the serum is if it is proved that the benefits of you getting the serum (i.e. a really useful ability) outweighed the drawbacks (you needing it every turn thereafter to avoid dying). So no-one has any meritorious reason to give you the serum unless it is proved that the benefits of you getting the serum outweigh the drawbacks- the only way this could be demonstrated is by knowing what your ability is by you claiming. This means if you're not going to claim your ability now then you must think your ability is sufficiently useful to claim at later point. QFT. If you want to respond please rebut this argument rather than a different one you made up e.g.

Wrong again. Did you want to give me the serum yesterday? Did I get it?

Which blatantly ignores the fact what I am saying is specifically based on the fact that you already *have* been serumed.


Don't think I've forgotten this either:

coming from the idea that you

believe

that they are metal, there's no point in confirming that they are, especially by wasting a lynch.

This falls into the same category as wanting to synth Wall-E. Do you have any good reason to believe he is scum, and lying about being flesh? If not, why do you advocate wasting a mycosynth on him?

This is not the same in any way. Lynching someone you believe is metal will send the game to night for the scum to kill, while giving the town no information about that persons alignment. If we myco Wall-E, or anyone, we

know

they are now flesh. Whether or not they were before is irrelevant. I do not

believe

Wall-E is flesh like the other people were believing TE was steel. These two situations are only vaguely similar, and I believe my position is perfectly logical.

Regarding synthing me, I suggest you do not. Wall-E is a much better choice. There is no sweet-talking. I am town, which is all you need to know to not synth me.

This does not follow... Why should we be more likely to think you are town than Wall-E,

You shouldn't. You have equally as much reason to believe him as me.

and even then why is thinking you're town enough reason not to synth you anymore than it is Wall-E?

I do not think Wall-E is town. I know that I am. Also, Wall-E said he was okay with being synthed. I am not.

it seems to me, that assuming Wall-E and Timeater are telling the truth about their roles (which obviously is a big assumption),

This

is

a big assumption. Too big at this point. The rest of what you said doesn't matter to me because I do

not

believe Wall-E's flesh claim with no backing.

why you picking on wall-e?

I feel like it. He seemed like a good avenue to pursue upon replacing in.

That was never an acceptable justification. How could you have been so wrong about Wall-E? Do you believe Wall-E's flesh claim now he's dead? Do you believe his town claim? You seemed very sure that he was scum before (not enough to give a proper case against him or anything, though). If you were wrong about him could you be wrong about me?

And when I found this next part I couldn't *believe* I'd let you get away this... (backtracking for a second)

and even then why is thinking you're town enough reason not to synth you anymore than it is Wall-E?

I do not think Wall-E is town. I know that I am. Also, Wall-E said he was okay with being synthed. I am not.

You are blatantly claiming to be metal here, there is no other possible interpretation.

Also, what you have said is ambiguous, are you claiming to be steel here?

Also, what you have said is ambiguous,

It's supposed to be.

are you claiming to be steel here?

Stop role-fishing.

Yet away you try to get away with a blunt straw-man. You actually accuse me of role-fishing even though it was you that suggested you were metal initially- I had nothing to do with it. And what reason would you have for being deliberately "ambiguous", anyway? I can't see it serving any purpose for town...

Only one post for me today so you'll be happy to know I fixed that up.

[ortolan]

I think that if we have someone we think is scum, we should mycosynth them before we lynch them, and proceed in that manner. Hence...

Vote: Timeater

Mycosynth: Ortolan

Tell me...CF Riot, since you recieved abilities, what exactly did you do with them? Or, actually, do you have a role that we should continue to serum?

This is unnecessary. I will tell you now that I am flesh- you can lynch me today if you wish. Of course you may or may not choose to believe this.

I would like some explanations at this point:

Firstly; have I missed something? Who is Diomedes? I meant to ask this in my last post but forgot.

Also, while "metal fleet" describing Timeater's alignment is in itself ambiguous (and could well be the scum faction), perhaps MafiaSSK has told us all we need to know. Perhaps quoting our alignment from our role pms would help determine whether his accords with the majority? As quoting only this will not reveal any information about our potential abilities there are no drawbacks for the town, thus I will start:

"You are Glissa Sunseeker, town-aligned protagonist." (don't worry, I looked up the magic card for Glissa and it doesn't relate to my implied ability so there will be no way of discerning it from the card- I suggest you do the same also if you're concerned.)

Ort for his INSISTENCE that there is no other metal townies which seems like he's been fishing from day one. Also I dont know what to make of his backwards logic concerning the CF Spyrx porkens connection. I also have my eye on you CF, while you do seem town, your move yesterday with the serum could have been an attempt to buddy up with a townie, making you look better when he flipped, its not much but I am just being cautious.

I did not insist, I said "assuming" Timeater's quoted role pm is correct. And all that has happened concerning his role pm so far is it has been...validated to an extent by MafiaSSK (and will hopefully be validated further after my strategy). So it's not at all an unsound basis. On your second point:

I withdraw my previous position. I think that despite SpyreX flipping town, CF Riot is still scum. Thus I agree and I was somewhat naive to assume SpyreX's flip would clear CF Riot (I at this point think Timeater is town though, and if this the case, SpyreX's gambit has had terrible consequences for the town. If it turns out Timeater is scum I will acknowledge he is better at mafia than I).

You're also distorting the details from yesterday. I never said Wall-E was definite scum, and I didn't really push his wagon that hard, (you support this testimony yourself by pointing out I never attempted a case on him.)

Um, NO. Another ridiculous straw man, probably your biggest this game. I said you didn't attempt a case against him in that you just bandwagoned him heavily and seemingly mindlessly (obviously it wouldn't me mindless at all if you were scum, which I believe is the case) and didn't provide any evidence. This is amply evidenced by my quotes in my previous post where you suggest you voted for him simply because he was a "good avenue to pursue upon replacing in", and gave no further reasons. What the hell? For reference, it's exactly the same approach you've taken to me since I started suspecting you. If you want someone lynched, I expect you to provide a case. And a "case" does not consist of deliberately mis-interpreting my arguments against you and responding to the new ones you made up.

For the second half, I don't have to justify wanting to Myco someone I was suspicious of, and I don't really think I needed to justify not wanting to be synthed at that point either. Sure, I'd try harder to convince you not to if the majority looked like they wanted me synthed, but at that point, "don't do it" felt like a good enough response to me.

You can't have it both ways. I consider you claimed metal at this point. I believe Timeater's claim (and hopefully we're gonna find out whether we trust him after my plan, heheheheheh) and thus believe he is the only metal townie (also there are flavour reasons to think so, unless Natirasha is a particularly dastardly mod). Thus I think you're scum. I also find your uniqueness really interesting- you're the only person apart from Timeater to express concern so far about being mycosynthed (and he had already claimed metal). You're also the only person with an ability- through serum or otherwise, not to claim or even hint at it. Seraphim strongly hinted at his ability and then demonstrated it. MafiaSSK openly revealed his ability- which may yet to prove very useful for town. I'm left wondering what was so amazingly useful and pro-town about your ability that you CAN'T EVEN REVEAL IT TO TOWN??? Was it a cop investigation? Was it a hiding ability? Was it a vig? Was it a protect? You only have the night cycle and this current day to use it (during which you can't get killed, obviously) so I've given some thought as to what ability you might have that might have a drawback to revealing it to town at this point. I came up with...nothing. So I think you're scum. Also, Natirasha said in 97 that metal players don't die of blinkmoth serum overdose. Thus you can get it perpetually. Ah...now I understand why you wouldn't be worried about getting the serum twice. Scum. Also both your points in post 702 are rubbish. As you so detest me "replying for other people" I will give Timeater a chance to respond to them- if he does not, I will.

Finally I will leave my thoughts about the most pro-town players:

Firstly, Seraphim. He not only hinted at his ability before using it but demonstrated it. I also understand his thought process in seruming CF Riot night one- SpyreX was lynched and flipped town and I linked him to CF Riot so it was a reasonable assumption. I also find it unlikely scum would get a role like this for balance issues (I may be proved wrong). My one problem is that I understand his recent vote on me, but not for the mycosynth on Timeater. Surely you would want to discuss the fact that MafiaSSK confirmed his role to a large extent first?

Secondly, MafiaSSK. I find it implausible that he would fake a claim like that and find him using it on Timeater very plausible. Of course it's still possible they're both scum in cahoots (which would implicate me also to some extent obviously).

Finally, I have to go with Timeater, pending what my above-mentioned strategy reveals. I find his play this game fairly consistent with what I have gleaned from his meta from reading a few other posts of his and all that's happened so far is a moderate confirmation of his roleclaim. I also find his suicidal behaviour somewhat compelling but maybe it's cause I'm new and impressionable.

I'm also pretty much neutral right now on geraintm, Tony Montana- for some reason though he's never been antagonistic to me I can't rule out the possibility he's scum, something about his neutral voting patterns all game. And I find his immediate withdrawal of a synth vote a bit wierd. But I still certainly don't lean towards him being scum. Also Gremwell. Finally Illumina...yer I got no idea about him.

I guess that only leaves Porkens and CF Riot, as before. :S

[ortolan]

"You are Glissa Sunseeker, town-aligned protagonist."

you outted yourself as glissa? with no one calling for it?

I may be the protagonist but, judging from my role pm, my ability isn't game-breaking. Potentially useful, certainly, but it seems on par with for example MafiaSSK's claimed ability.

[ortolan]

do you want to tell us what your role pm tells you your faction is geraintm?

[ortolan]

I'm swamped with work from all sides, but I'm here.

Some observations:

I think Timeater had a point despite the repetitive post: it doesn't make sense to vote to myco him without also wanting to lynch him. (I tend to think he's town myself) Those who myco'd him yesterday, what's your response to this?

Also, Timeater is correct: everyone begins vanilla until the serum is doled out. Therefore, how can Seraphim have this serum-giving ability...?

I think in a game where you're free to post your role PM, claims should be taken with a grain of salt. Ortolan did claim the protagonist, though, so that's probably meaningful if nobody else counterclaims. But, Ort, why did you claim?

I didn't really claim anything apart from my faction. Anyone else care to share theirs so we can work out whether to believe TE's claim (instead of just mindlessly voting for him surely this is a better plan???)

[ortolan]

What do you mean by his role is "bogus"?

And yes, I agree it is a bit inconsistent to say "all players at the start of the game are vanilla" when someone has a serum-giving ability.

However, he also said:

Abilities: <Insert abilities, in the case of a vanilla players, the role PM will say>You have no outstanding abilities at this time.

which implies that some players start the game as not vanilla.

[ortolan]

FYI I think Natirasha changed some of the stuff about the serum in the first post.

Also still waiting on faction claims

[ortolan]

I meant to post this earlier but this game kind of depressed me as I think it reasonably unlikely town will win currently.

Anyhow I dislike all the cases that have been made so far for lynchs/mycos today. I recall three: Seraphim, MafiaSSK, Timeater/Vi

Seraphim: I feel, looks much better in retrospect. His lurking is vindicated by the fact he seemingly had an important power-role, of giving serum, and thus would be unwilling to draw attention to himself to avoid the mafia's nightkill. He even offered to claim "in case he got lynched" to avoid having his power wasted. He then hinted at the ability he had. Later, it was seemingly confirmed by CF Riot being serumed. All in all I find it highly unlikely he is scum at this point. His role seems far too unbalanced to be a mafia role.

Secondly, MafiaSSK. I don't see why his usage of his ability on Timeater was a bad move. Also; on Porkens point about him being "claimed rolecop"- I don't think this is necessarily the case- there is at least one alternative I can glean from his apparent breadcrumbing.

Finally: Timeater/Vi: I still don't believe Timeater's claim day one was scummy- it has also been partially vindicated by MafiaSSK. I also somewhat like how critical Vi has been of me after replacing in despite me being his character's main defender previously. However, for safety's sake I still wouldn't want to preclude him being scum and deliberately taking this approach.

@ Vi's point about my excessive reference to the setup: I am relatively new and was not aware discussing setup was widely considered a scumtell (I still don't necessarily think this idea should be considered gospel either). I have also referred to it in another theme game and an open game (I think interest in the setup elicits it from me). CF Riot also accused me of rolefishing at one point, which I refute- I maintain my remarks were in response to his implied role/metal status claim.

I agree with whoever it was who said I am/was probably the only Metal Townie.

That was me.

There is also something I've been worried about: If we mislynch/mismyco today, then we may well find ourselves at LyLo tomorrow. In fact even if we get a scum we want to lynch tomorrow then if they're metal then they will survive anyhow and could endgame us. I suggest we be very careful with choices for today.

[ortolan]

You are correct in that a second mislynch today *usually* means LyLo tomorrow. Which is why we need to start playing hardball today.

But specifically in this game, where we probably need to myco them *before* we lynch them.

Secondly, MafiaSSK. I don't see why his usage of his ability on Timeater was a bad move.

Also; on Porkens point about him being "claimed rolecop"- I don't think this is necessarily the case- there is at least one alternative I can glean from his apparent breadcrumbing.

I got role-cop from the serum. I do not wish to full claim at this moment.

This does not refute my point. I don't want him to have to claim so I won't say anything more.

[ortolan]

No, I didn't think he was lying.

As he seems to have contradicted this I was referring to the possibility he might have multiple abilities. They may be randomised or determined in some other way. Role cop may have just been one. I thought he was hinting at this when he said "I got role cop from the serum, don't wish to make a full claim at this point".

[ortolan]

First of all I meant to reply to this in my last post but must have forgotten:

Um, NO. Another ridiculous straw man,

This doesn't have anything to do with you being scum, but I'd like to know if you understand the definition of "straw man". You're using the term incorrectly. To straw man is to pick out one part of an argument and use it in an attempt to cast doubt on the argument as a whole. I'm not doing that. I'm destroying every point you make one by one, each with emphasis relative to how bad of a point it is, and only leaving out parts that would hurt the town for me to answer, (like asking me what my role is or what I did with it.)

Actually you're entirely wrong about what a straw man is. A straw man is an argument which misrepresents an opponent's position in order to make it easier to refute (see Wikipedia). It has nothing to do with "pick(ing) out one part of an argument and us(ing) it in an attempt to cast doubt on the argument as a whole." I wouldn't have commented but it's pretty bad form to try to correct someone's *correct* usage of a term with your own *incorrect* usage.

I've done a re-read of more recent posts from since Timeater was replaced.

It makes little sense that the attention seems to have dropped off Timeater/Vi since Vi replaced in. If you thought Timeater was scum, you should think Vi is scum.

I dislike Tony's lurking (and observed such previously) but really, half the town is guilty of lurking. Seraphim's the only one with a decent excuse for doing so due to his ability. Illumina, geraintm, Gremwell and TonyMontana all need to post more (and in Tony's case I'd like to see longer than one line posts for the most part). I would hate to think we gave the game to scum because almost half the town couldn't be bothered contributing properly.

But if I had support my main goal would be a roleclaim out of CF Riot. Come on, am I the only person that finds an abject refusal to claim an ability in this situation- when he's probably already had his only use out of it, extremely anti-town? To pre-empt, yes I am rolefishing- I do want to know your role.

[ortolan]

On getting a claim out of me, what do you think are the benefits and the drawbacks? Consider you do get me to claim, and I lay out something vaguely similar to the town PMs already given. It seems townish, but very unverifiable. You gain very little (IMO) supporting evidence against me, and at the same time very little reason to believe me. The mafia on the other hand (assuming I'm town) can potentially weigh my role against their idea of the rest of the town, and prioritize their kill accordingly. If they find out my steel/flesh status, they either gain a failsafe kill they may need near endgame, or learn not to try it, giving them a higher chance of hitting flesh from another target. I don't think it will help you at all to know my role. I know the likelihood of me getting the serum again is lower than some, but it's not zero. I'd prefer to keep my role hidden until that happens.

If you're town then you gained an ability which helps town in some way- I don't care about your role, I care about your ability. You had to use your ability either last night or today. I want to know what that ability was, and there seems a good chance it's verifiable (which would make you look more pro-town, obviously). As you yourself have acknowledged, if you get the serum again it amounts to slow-vigging you so I think it highly unlikely you would want the serum again. Even if you do, however, it seems unlikely someone would want to give it to you without you specifically requesting it by claiming what your ability does. Do you see my logic now? I don't see, if you're town, what the point of withholding what your ability is and how you used it.

[ortolan]

Oh, sorry I forgot.

Ort, who would you serum if it were up to you?

Ort, opinion?

Me. I know I am town even if others disbelieve me, but I actually think there's decent reasons for the town to elect to give me the serum also. Firstly, if you believed my claimed role title earlier as most people seemed to (Glissa Sunseeker). Secondly as I have come under quite a bit of suspicion prior to that this game, if the scum decided to nightkill me purely because I had the serum, it wouldn't be a great loss for the town- and would at least mean I was cleared.

Apart from me I am weighing up whether MafiaSSK is a good target for the serum again. I don't like the idea of him being "slow vigged", and am curious as to why you, CF Riot, seem so keen to set in motion events which will lead to as many deaths as possible when there seems little evidence he, or even TonyMontana are scum at this point. I am also somewhat skeptical about the usefulness of his ability- it is still unclear what information we can gain from people's "roles"- the more important information may only be revealed by their faction and/or ability (the latter which they may not even know). That said I believe giving him the serum will do less harm than potentially giving it to someone who is scum will (as I do not think he is scum). Also, he wouldn't necessarily be slow vigged by it, assuming we continually feed him the serum every day after.

[ortolan]

I would like an extension specifically to avoid the temptation of lynching someone at the last second.

The case against MafiaSSK is extremely insubstantial, I have no idea why it's gained momentum so quickly.

If CF Riot were actually town, that would be the best thing ever considering he's been so dominant at shaping the actions of town this game and many seemingly blindly follow. I don't understand in the slightest why so few people find him scummy.

It wouldn't help the town at all. If you think I'm scum take whatever measures you want against me. If the whole town wants me lynched, I'll claim. But if you believe me enough to keep me around a little longer, just be patient. I'll claim when I need to.

If he's scum and town swallows this then they just gave him the easiest ride to a win ever.

On getting a claim out of me, what do you think are the benefits and the drawbacks? Consider you do get me to claim, and I lay out something vaguely similar to the town PMs already given. It seems townish, but very unverifiable. You gain very little (IMO) supporting evidence against me, and at the same time very little reason to believe me. The mafia on the other hand (assuming I'm town) can potentially weigh my role against their idea of the rest of the town, and prioritize their kill accordingly. If they find out my steel/flesh status, they either gain a failsafe kill they may need near endgame, or learn not to try it, giving them a higher chance of hitting flesh from another target. I don't think it will help you at all to know my role. I know the likelihood of me getting the serum again is lower than some, but it's not zero. I'd prefer to keep my role hidden until that happens.

Firstly; your ability did something in the context of the game- either it allowed you to investigate someone or perform an action on someone else. Thus you will have something to show for your ability, not just what the ability is. There are no conceivable abilities which would benefit from not being revealed to the town. Arguing you don't want mafia to know your ability because there's a minimal chance you may get the serum again and an unknown chance your ability may be useful is just not a good enough reason in light of all the benefits claiming your ability and having it confirmed as pro-town will bring. For example, if you proved to me your ability was pro-town I would no longer need to suspect you and we could get on with the real business of hunting scum. Surely if you're town this alone is a good enough reason for revealing your ability, regardless of whether or not you have a slight chance of getting to use it again.

Also, not only have you not claimed, but you've put an incredible amount of suspicion on MafiaSSK *for* claiming.

Earlier you implied you were metal and also do not seem concerned about getting the serum again, as you have not referred to being serum-vigged upon receiving the serum a second time. Thus, you are metal (but have not claimed such, I had to read between the lines to discern this).

Essentially you've given yourself a mafioso's end-game survival kit. You've presented basically meritless arguments for not revealing your ability to town (which is exactly what you'd want to do as mafia, as your ability is anti-town, and you've also refused to explicitly claim your metal status, although it is now obvious you are in fact metal. The second is still scummy judged on Timeater's role pm claiming to be the only metal townie (some people have disagreed on this but I have seen no good evidence for not thinking so).

More thoughts:

MafiaSSK. The case against him seems to me to be paperthin. Considering how much crap flew back and forth on day one over Timeater's roleclaim it is not the *slightest* bit surprising that he used his ability on Timeater. Now is in danger of being "serum-vigged" for it based on the same bandwagon of leaders and followers we've seen all game.

Illumina: Doesn't post enough, comes out of the woodwork to offer serum to Porkens/CF Riot and tows the line on the MafiaSSK serum. Not enough skepticism about their cases. I remember someone calling him the "towniest" player earlier which is surprising in light of how little he has posted.

Porkens: still suspect in my eyes. I read another game he was in in which he was instrumental in winning the game for the town, modded by xyzzy. His play seemed both intelligent and skeptical. Mostly in this game he seems to parrot CF Riot's suspicions with slight variations here and there. Attacks MafiaSSK for not quoting his entire role pm while siding with CF Riot who has offered absolutely nothing about his role. Btw, MafiaSSK *should* just quote his role pm immediately, he has no reason for not doing so. I'm skeptical that would stop the bandwagon however. Also:

And this sentence doesn't have a clear meaning, can you restate it:

I can't help but feel that CF's claim that his unclaimed ability may come in handy later if he's kept alive that long, while it apparently served no good last night and he doesn't want it tonight.

The implications of this sentence are very clear to me even if it's grammatically imperfect. I notice apart from critiquing this aspect of it you don't respond do it or even deem the point relevant, and then neglect to bring it up again. Why do you never seem to question CF Riot's towniness?

Gremwell reads town, especially recently. He seems to be one of the few who agree with me about CF Riot (post 831).

Regarding the serum, I still want it, obviously. I would like to hear cases for why I shouldn't get it (as most people said they believed my role claim).

More precisely, I would like the town's serum and think Seraphim should decide who the recipient of his serum should be. I wish Seraphim would post more as his role and behaviour make him one of the most likely townies.

geraintm and TonyMontana really, really don't post enough. If they're town then they're disadvantaging us. If they're scum then they're doing a fine job.

Serum: ortolan
Mycosynth: CF Riot

Not sure who to vote for yet, or if it will even be profitable if all the townies are flesh now.

[ortolan]

If I reveal my role, and how I used it, it will not make me appear any more or any less townish.

Well it can't have been a particularly useful ability then can it? At least if you did you'd give me more to think about.

And yes, I'm about 99% sure what my ability is from my role pm.

[ortolan]

I've certainly considered the possibility that you're town, but imo the risk of you not being town is too great for the minimal pressure that's been placed on you currently

[ortolan]

You're basically presenting a "too good to keep alive" stance on CF

I think it's more just that if he is scum, then he's given himself a great pass to end-game (especially if he's metal and will need to be mycoed before he can even be lynched).

And I am happy to vote or support the seruming of MafiaSSK somehow, if he fails to post his role in his next post- there is absolutely no reason not to.

[ortolan]

I mean getting away with not claiming your metal/abilities, especially in light of putting pressure on others such as MafiaSSK for having done so.

[ortolan]

I'd still rather synth you to be honest

But; let's just wait until he posts next. If he fails to post his role pm in its entirety then I will gladly assist in his synthing/hanging/serum vigging. Likewise if he just fails to post for an extended period of time. It's still possible he was confused or somesuch on his last post. MafiaSSK: Please post your role pm in its entirety in the thread.

[ortolan]

CF: It's mainly that despite being very dominant in terms of the discussion and getting the serum you've not had to claim either metal status or your ability. I'm not saying you definitely *are* mafia, but if you were, it would be a hell of a good position to be in.

[ortolan]

and I also agree with Vi's case on Porkens, especially because in the other game of his I read he used much better reasoning than he has in this game, where he almost seems deliberately impulsive at times.

Also found his 180 on me a bit suspicious (but I can hardly complain can I?). He also seems to have 180ed on you since you replaced Timeater.

[ortolan]

That means I have about four hours right?

Meh, I'll give MafiaSSK a few more hours to reply, I'd hate to end up in LyoL because he hasn't had time to check the thread recently

[ortolan]

If you look at his profile he's being criticised for lurking in other games atm

I'm worried we're heading in the wrong direction

But I will still vote to avoid a no lynch

[ortolan]

Vote: MafiaSSK

He's posted in other games but not here, that's enough for me

[ortolan]

Wow, I've been very bad for town this game, my apologies.

My ability was not what I was expecting at all: my pm (I thought) implies I get the ability to remove metal:

Welcome, ortolan.

You are Glissa Sunseeker, town-aligned protagonist. Ever since your birth, you've had a mysterious power to destroy metal. And now you are having these visions of a non-metal world. And then there is the troll Chunth who is telling you you have the spark. Oh, that's not even to mention the ancient robot deity that is chasing you. You just want a place to lie down...
Abilities: You have no outstanding abilities at this time.
Win Condition: You win when you are the last faction remaining.

what I got however, was merely "being untargetable to any actions which would target you"

Anyway, I agree with the possibility of a TM and geraintm team, but I wouldn't let Vi off the hook yet- not only did MafiaSSK "confirm" him (not that it would be necessarily wise for scum to do this to one another) but double-voting isn't necessarily a town ability.- by this logic I shouldn't be let off the hook either, obviously, although I would hope people would realise it's just been bad play on my part rather than being scum.

Also I'm very confused about Gremwell's death and his role.

I have a pretty fair guess as to how Gremwell died...and I approve

I don't know what you're implying, but it wasn't me that killed him. This means Vi might have gotten an extra scumkill from the serum???

[ortolan]

This means Vi might have gotten an extra scumkill from the serum???

Quick question: Do you think that I would have gotten a kill *and* an amplified vote today from the serum?
I assure you that as soon as I vote, you will see that the latter is true.

I certainly don't want to rule it out. If one of the scum's abilities from the serum was to get an extra kill that night, then it would seem they might get another ability the day after to mask this fact...for example a double vote (because otherwise it would be obvious that they were scum)

Furthermore, I am skeptical scum would get a magical "extra night-kill ability" to use one night without having being serumed. But, as I said, according to this interpretation it's equally likely it was me that made the night-kill (so all that's left is my word against yours, or a strange setup.)

[ortolan]

...or a serial killer who somehow didn't get a nightkill night one??

[ortolan]

and on claiming I would advocate doing so as, for example, Porkens has already soft-claimed a helpful role tonight (sorry for the triple post)

[ortolan]

Ort, did you target anyone at all last night?

No, my ability didn't give me the opportunity:

The town gives you the serum. The metallic taste is horrible, but soon...the world feels different. You have ascended to a higher level of power.

You just need to think. Using your newfound skill, though, you have found a place where no one will find you. A place where you can stop and figure out what to do.

For the remainder of the night, you are now untargetable to any actions that would target you.

So I've got nothing to do with Gremwell's kill unless the mod lied and my ability was in fact a random vig

[ortolan]

ModWIFOM should never be a part of games. I'd call the "unless" part doubtful.

Yes I meant it kind of sarcastically.

We do need the rest of the pms in your next post people, it's worrying that the only people that have claimed so far are the most town-looking.

[ortolan]

Are we sure this massclaim helped town more than scum? Now they have their choice of who to target... I'm not sure revealing my role just now is the best play.

I disagree, please claim immediately lest you jeopardise my perceptions of your towniness (come on, even CF Riot has claimed and he was very firmly against doing so on previous days). Same goes for TM and geraintm. I really want to post my thoughts on the scummiest but I'm not doing this until we get some claims.

[ortolan]

Doesn't matter imo, someone's gonna get night-killed anyway and there's no way I'd vote to give you the serum to activate your ability without you claiming anyway.

But Porkens and CF Riot should comment on this also

[ortolan]

all this beating around the bush really seems quite scummy to me

[ortolan]

I'm more than happy to serum Porkens but I'm waiting for these claims before putting in my voting choices

[ortolan]

TonyMontana, you're next (imo I'd wait for him to claim before posting any comments)

[ortolan]

wow, good timing

in light of these claims I'd probably advocate Illumina claiming (it's now obvious the scum were given at least one safeclaim, as all but one player has claimed and there must be at least 3 scum. Opinions on Illumina claiming?

[ortolan]

I've just been doing a partial re-read: I have to say I'm not at all as sure of Illumina's alignment as others seem to be, I would definitely be in favour of him claiming (but let's go democracy!)

Secondly, CF Riot IIRC you said you got cop from the serum, but I never worked out who you actually investigated. Who was it?

[ortolan]

meh, I will give my thoughts:

I'm not at all convinced of TM's scumminess. Look at post 876 where he attacks MafiaSSK long before, for example, I realised MafiaSSK was scum. Porkens had only just placed suspicion on MafiaSSK before that and were TM scum trying to save his buddy he could have simply refrained from posting or focused on something else at that point to avoid bandwagoning his buddy.

On the claims.
Nim Lasher is a black card (bad omen) and the flavor text says "The rotting metal feeds the necrogen mists, and in turn the mists feed the nim." This implies metal (Memnarch's side) is a good thing for Nim Lasher. It also doesn't look like Nim Lasher is a metal creature, although Illumina claims steel.

Moriok Scavenger is also black. "Many go to Mephidross in search of lost riches. Most end up as part of the cache." I can't read anything from this.

Mycosynth Golem is an artifact card with no flavor text.

I'm already pretty sure it's not a good idea to read anything into the magic cards. That said I'm about to launch into my own heavy WIFOM about the setup so forgive me:

Unvote. Vote: Vi

I'm blaming Grem's death on you. I think Ort is Glissa. You were the other one to be serumed last night. I still like my synth on Geraintm.

I agree, think about what sort of powers scum might get from the serum. If they got an extra night-kill, SURELY the mod would also give them an ability which they could prove they had the next day to avoid making it obvious that the extra night-kill was due to them getting the serum. The double-voting seems a perfect example of this- it's not too strong either. Of course it's also kind of consistent with a metal townie- the mod wouldn't want to make their ability overpowered for town if they're already metal and non-night-killable. It's also obvious from the claims we've seen that the scum were given at least two fake-claims between them, perhaps communally or perhaps individually. It's perfectly plausible Timeater simply decided to use his when I stupidly gave him an opening day one (and if he got serumed and got the double night-kill then we would have been none the wiser due to having little knowledge of the setup).

Now (and this is going to get _very_ wifom about the setup) I actually think TM's claim makes him likely to be town:

Welcome, TonyMontana.

You are a Moriok Scavenger, town-aligned graverobber.
Geth was told to send a few good men to the core of Mirrodin, and kill the elf Glissa. Well, you were one of those sent. And you failed. Now, you have joined up with the elf girl--your lord Geth forsook you, and his lord now wants you dead. It really was the only sensible option.
Abilities: You have no outstanding abilities.
Win Condition: You win when you are the last faction remaining.

The role actually reads as scummy. He comes from a scummy background compared to all the other pms we've seen, and we know for one that even if TM's claim is fake then at least one of the others is also fake. Also I suspect that whichever the fakeclaims are, whatever they present the person's metalness/fleshness as is what the actual player's metalness/fleshness is. Furthermore I think for game balance reasons, assuming there is only 3 scum (which there really must be, would be too unbalanced otherwise), then there is/was at least one metal townie, even if Timeater/Vi is actually scum. From that I infer the last two scum probably is/were metal. Tell me if you think that's a bad assumption.

And when I think about what Porkens said in post 910, I find it very plausible that Timeater/Vi is Memnarch aka the mafia godfather. The pms specifically detail how powerful Memnarch is, and what could be more powerful than an extra night-kill followed by a double vote? Any comments on the flavour in Post 900, that Gremwell was found "beneath two copper bread buns"?

Hmm... That makes some flavor sense, true. But that would also mean that I'm liekwhoaverpowered as a role - an extra NK and a scum-doublevote, seriously?

I don't like the WIFOM here, especially as this seems entirely possible to me.

Anyway I'd love to lynch Timeater

I would like to hear more on why Illumina is scummy, I'm probably leaning back towards geraintm at this point but would consider changing to Illumina if convinced.

Furthermore, I am suspicious of:

Let's just say my role is more vulnerable than I thought, due to recent events. I really think it would hurt the town to reveal my role now.

in light of Illumina's actual claim I don't understand why he said this. What did this mean?

But, c'mon Vi's jumped around FoSing the townies looking players- CF Riot and TM. It's possible that CF Riot (and Porkens/TM) have gone to a hugely elaborate gambit with their scumbuddy MafiaSSK and deliberately both tried to not give him the serum day one despite it being randomly chosen, and further bandwagoned him to get him lynched, but if they were clever enough to do this to clear them town never had a chance. I don't see you had any reason to suspect CF Riot without very good justification considering how townie he looks, and am highly skeptical of you voting Tony also with so little evidence of him being scum.

I'm sure Vi has to be the lynch for today, I'm only torn between who we should synth and to a lesser extent who we should serum, but I think I'm happy with seruming Porkens.

Vote: Vi

Obviously don't lynch him before we get more discussion.

Btw CF Riot, I honestly think there was little chance of anyone correctly interpreting your breadcrumb :

I'm trying to

c

atch

up whenever the

o

pportunity

finally decides to

p

resent

itself. Middle of page

4

.

The 4 was the key. First letter of every 4th word. However, it turned out I guessed wrong, and I actually became a tracker.

[ortolan]

I think Vi is more likely to be godfather than SK, if he is scum- why would the SK only get a nightkill when they get serumed- that's the crappiest SK role ever- although I suppose this partially applies to my supposition that he is godfather also

Also if I am an SK, it would seem quite a lame and unfair SK that seems to get guaranteed in almost ever player's pm (I did not know this at the time I claimed either, it was just lucky that I happened to look very scummy and it served to verify me). If Vi flips town I anticipate votes coming my way due to what Porkens said unfortunately, which would cause us to lose as I am town

I really don't like you wanting to go to night within 3? pages of the last night. Illumina hasn't even had time to answer my question. Seems somewhat scummy.

Unvote

[ortolan]

Please post with an acceptable amount of detail who you think is most scummy geraintm, TM and Illumina, as soon as possible

[ortolan]

I think Vi is more likely to be godfather than SK, if he is scum- why would the SK only get a nightkill when they get serumed- that's the crappiest SK role ever- although I suppose this partially applies to my supposition that he is godfather also

My understanding of godfather is probably different than yours? Mine is: Will appear as town if investigated by a cop.

I'm anticipating more of a JOAT role from Vi as the independent party. Get the serum once-get a few one-shot or limited-shot powers; hence the confirmed double-voting and the suspected metal-murdering.

I only meant Godfather in that he is scum leader as in Memnarch

Also if I am an SK, it would seem quite a lame and unfair SK that seems to get guaranteed in almost ever player's pm (I did not know this at the time I claimed either, it was just lucky that I happened to look very scummy and it served to verify me). If Vi flips town I anticipate votes coming my way due to what Porkens said unfortunately, which would cause us to lose as I am town

I don't know what you mean by "guaranteed" here. And, how did looking scummy serve to verify you? If Vi flips town; I think we have lost this one, but I don't see a good alternative. You are more likely town than Vi, so I'm putting all my eggs in one basket.

I mean guaranteed in that most people's role pm says "you will give your support to Glissa" or something like that. Glissa is me and I have not been counter-claimed. That is what I consider to be "guaranteed" to a large extent. And looking scummy did not serve to verify me, I meant that in light of the fact I looked scummy when in fact I am town, the fact that I was Glissa was helpful because it gave people a good indication that I was not actually scum, even though I had previously looked like it.

[ortolan]

Also, Vi is not my scumbuddy, if he were I would have hammered TM and not been critical of him bringing TM in hammer range...

That's not true, if you quickhammered you would have been lynched tomorrow so there's one incentive for not having done so. Furthermore scum often attack each other to look townie, or avoid being associated with one another should one's alignment be revealed.

1) It's logical that our mod would have provided safeclaims against a massclaim. Therefore, you have to assume that some players are lying about their claim. If you're going to fakeclaim steel, an artifact golem (geraintm's claim) is a clear and obvious choice. It's also generic when you might expect the flavor to fit into the five moons/colors/regions of Mirrodin theme we have going. However, claiming something that specific is risky.

I agree entirely about geraintm's claim- I am skeptical of it also and meant to say as much in my last big post, but must have forgotten. His claims seems quite a good justification for being metal scum.

If Vi flips town I anticipate votes coming my way due to what Porkens said unfortunately, which would cause us to lose as I am town

Wait a minute, wait a minute. If you didn't kill Grem, and you don't think Vi killed Grem, how do you think he died?

It is still possible that it is something in the game mechanics (wasn't that point made earlier, the oddness of him being a "metal body double" and dying, whatever that means?), or simply an example of a scum role that doesn't need serum (it was already proven contrary to what Natirasha said initially that some roles, such as Seraphim's, did not need serum to have their abilities activated). And btw, I believe I was the first to draw attention to the possibility that Vi was responsible for Gremwell's death, so I certainly still don't think this is unlikely. My unvote was more based in wanting more discussion rather than not thinking he is scum.

[ortolan]

yes, it should need confirming but I suspect it's merely a typo:

The town gives you the serum. The metallic taste is horrible, but soon...the world feels different. You have ascended to a higher level of power.

You just need to think. Using your newfound skill, though, you have found a place where no one will find you. A place where you can stop and figure out what to do.

For the remainder of the night, you are now untargetable to any actions that would target you.

[ortolan]

wait, am I right in that we already reached a majority for all 3 votes?

so any input of mine is pointless at this stage

I'm really curious as to why you've opted to waste a lynch on someone who is clearly metal though, irrespective of their alignment. Brings us back into even numbers pointlessly, and either way unless somehow illumina is scum lying about his metalness we're in LyoL tomorrow, it seems better to be in LyoL with odd numbers and one less wasted lynch however...

he has claimed metal, so i want him to suffer something tonight
can i do this?

Um...what do you mean?

[ortolan]

Meh, looks like Tony agrees with me- it's worth trying:

Vote (lynch): Vi
Vote (myco): geraintm
Vote (serum): Porkens

[ortolan]

Really should have lynched Vi today, his ability is useless and apart from no longer giving us his views it would not affect the outcome of the game (sorry for triple post)

[ortolan]

oh, there I go again, I didn't realise that you think he's not metal because of his role-name. Your (Vi, Porkens, geraintm)'s position seems fair enough in light of this and probably not obviously a worse course of action than any other. I do hope my vote on the mycosynth on geraintm gets counted though, I'm not sure if we had a majority otherwise.

[ortolan]

Really should have lynched Vi today, his ability is useless and apart from no longer giving us his views it would not affect the outcome of the game (sorry for triple post)

The same argument could be made for you. With much love.

Um not it definitely couldn't. Few if any doubt that I am town this game. I meant to demonstrate why your post 983 was so wrong but thought it was pointless because you'd already decided to lynch a claimed metal (nice work on that), but it looks like I'll get another chance:

if you're town it's extremely irresponsible to put all 3 votes on L-1, and the fact that you did it immediatly after being voted makes it that more suspicious.

Not really; I've already said why.
All of my votes put someone to at least L-2 anyway.

That's not clear, several people have shown an overeager mentality this game regardless of scumminess- promoting ending the day quickly by putting people on L-1 is not helpful to town.

I'm not at all convinced of TM's scumminess. Look at post 876 where he attacks MafiaSSK long before, for example, I realised MafiaSSK was scum. Porkens had only just placed suspicion on MafiaSSK before that and were TM scum trying to save his buddy he could have simply refrained from posting or focused on something else at that point to avoid bandwagoning his buddy.

rlynao

I do believe you didn't know TE claimed, cause honestly who bothers reading the random stage when replacing. I also believe you were a rolecop. It's just made either irrelevant, or suspicious by the fact that you refuse to quote your role PM.

That's the kindest, gentlest "attack" I've ever seen. obvbus

The fact is it was backed up by a vote at a stage where TM could simply have ignored the wagon. He had previously said he wished they had revoked the serum, and also that he believed MafiaSSK's claim and that he hadn't realised Timeater had already claimed. He then went on to vote him anyway for refusal to quote his role pm. You didn't take account of the context. The fact TM's claim has a lowercase "t" (which you're using as a fairly substantial criterion of towniness) vindicates this to some extent.

I agree, think about what sort of powers scum might get from the serum. If they got an extra night-kill, SURELY the mod would also give them an ability which they could prove they had the next day to avoid making it obvious that the extra night-kill was due to them getting the serum. The double-voting seems a perfect example of this- it's not too strong either. Of course it's also kind of consistent with a metal townie- the mod wouldn't want to make their ability overpowered for town if they're already metal and non-night-killable.

I hope for your sake that you aren't modding any games here or elsewhere in the near future. Quick rundown here.

The personal attack was totally unnecessary because I was not offering my opinions about what *would* make for a balanced game but what is the case this game. And in fact I have seen roles in many games which are much, much more powerful than in any other roles in the game are.

You say I

must

be scum because this setup makes sense:

I never said you *must* be scum.

*Part of being scum means games are usually imbalanced in my favor to start with.

??? Why??? Setups are usually meant to be balanced

*I can already kill someone at night (with a few other people's input) as scum.
*With the serum, I can kill someone ELSE on my own.
*With the serum, I can ALSO doublevote. As scum, this pushes the time when

we

control the majority of the votes (endgame) forward one day.

...

*The serum-fueled kill is perfectly explained by a "falseclaim" of doublevoting, except it's not a falseclaim at all.

I've already explained I don't think it's preposterous, if you did get an extra night-kill then you'd need some way of explaining it.

*Lest you forget, I was metal at the start of the game and basically invincible to any Town vigging, SKs, lynches,

copper bread buns

, or whatever else is out there.

Is this a slip up? The person killed by being sandwiched between two copper bread buns *was* metal, or at least appeared to be so. Therefore you'd be equally vulnerable to it, assuming you're town.

It's also obvious from the claims we've seen that the scum were given at least two fake-claims between them, perhaps communally or perhaps individually.

Obvious? How so?

Because everyone alive has produced claims which were obviously written by the mod, and we know there are at least two scum left.

Furthermore I think for game balance reasons, assuming there is only 3 scum (which there really must be, would be too unbalanced otherwise), then there is/was at least one metal townie, even if Timeater/Vi is actually scum. From that I infer the last two scum probably is/were metal. Tell me if you think that's a bad assumption.

I wouldn't assume it immediately. The easy way to go about this is to synth everyone at this point.

Well, yes, if we have the luxury of synthing everyone this is kind of entailed by what I said. It is totally inconsistent with you opting to waste a lynch on Illumina however.

But, c'mon Vi's jumped around FoSing the townies looking players- CF Riot and TM.

Maybe because I don't see them as townie looking?
Or to put it in a more sanguine manner--

God, CF, if you're scum, I can see you winning this one already. But Ort is just shoveling himself deeper with every single post, so I don't really care!

Nonetheless, you'll notice I still haven't VOTED CF Riot. 'Wonder why that is, mmm?

What does this even mean?

It's possible that CF Riot (and Porkens/TM) have gone to a hugely elaborate gambit with their scumbuddy MafiaSSK and deliberately both tried to not give him the serum day one despite it being randomly chosen, and further bandwagoned him to get him lynched, but if they were clever enough to do this to clear them town never had a chance.

Bussing.

Do you understand it?

The odds of there being scum on the SSK wagon are pretty good. To me, the SSK wagon looked like a follow-the-Porkens-so-we-get-a-lynch deal. Which is why Porkens is very much off my suspect list, and I don't think it helps anyone else.

Again, don't understand what point you're trying to make. You seem to speculate that they were bussing and then say they weren't...

Something that helped me to remember though was: We hung MSSK because of his claimed role and behavior, not his flavor.

Bingo.

Um, ok, so what insights did you gain from this quote?

Two people got the Serum last night - Ort and Vi. If we can possibly assume that only Serraphim had a free ability (to give the serum), as the rules of the game suggest, one of them; Ort and Vi, must have gotten an ability that let them kill Gremwell, even though he was metal.

What makes you so sure that there isn't another person with a non-Vanilla ability? It would make sense for Memnarch (not me) to have it. And it's not like the mod was telling the whole truth the first time...

It is possible.

Another thing to consider - ortolan's claim was

never proven

; in fact it's unprovable. So why is everyone jumping on me for my seruming, again?

So being guaranteed in people's role pms and not being counter-claimed isn't very good proof I am town? It's virtually like being confirmed by the mod. I don't know how you could think it's "unprovable"

IIRC, Vi has also pushed for getting the serum.

No, I didn't. I was the one saying

there's no point in me getting the serum

, as I didn't see anything in my Role PM that hinted at what would happen.

Timeater certainly did, even if you didn't

If Vi flips town; I think we have lost this one, but I don't see a good alternative. You are more likely town than Vi, so I'm putting all my eggs in one basket.

Why?
Until ortolan claimed Glissa Sunseeker, you and a number of other people wanted ortolan to be shot, in this game and possibly outside it.

What's the relevance of this?

*Why is TonyMontana still alive.

The only reasons offered for lynching him are you saying his "attack" on MafiaSSK wasn't genuine, and perhaps his lurkiness all game. Why are you so sure he's scum?

*ortolan is losing the game for Town again. I'm having a hard time deciding whether Glissa is a falseclaim or not, but I would place him as third to TonyMontana and Illumina.

What have I done today that has been bad play?

Anyhow after dissecting your post I am less inclined to believe you are scum but would still like some answers.

[ortolan]

Unvote lynch

[ortolan]

I will wait for Vi to respond before re-voting him, but the fact remains numbers-wise, if we lynch him versus lynching Illumina who I don't really have that much reason to doubt is metal, we will learn a whole lot and the game won't end any earlier (Starting Day 4 with 6 players versus 5 means we are in LyoL no matter what).

CF, I still don't know why getting the serum for the rest of the game would seem bad to me if I were a

tracker

.

I agree, although I suspect he'd just get night-killed if we gave him the serum anyway.

I'm puzzled as to why everyone is voting you and ignoring the people who delayed their claims...

I'm puzzled as to why you keep repeating this line, even though you were the last to claim, and the only one who blatantly delayed.

I think you know well that Illumina wasn't the only one who blatantly delayed.

I don't, actually. I claimed the second time I logged in after my vacation. Only reason I didn't claim the first time, was because Illumina and Porkens requested that I didn't.

I agree, I remember at least one person specifically requesting he not claim until after geraintm.

Also I re-iterate that if the game comes to be won/lost based on what may well be a mod-screw up in writing the fakeclaims it would be a pity. But I definitely think after we myco him today geraintm gets lynched tomorrow assuming some absurdly unexpected night activity. geraintm has seemed highly unwilling to contribute anything to town all game- this coupled with the fake-claim evidence is hard to overlook.

[ortolan]

Usually, when something reaches a majority, it can't unreach a majority(I am talking about the fact Illumina reached the mycosynth about 4 pages ago).

I could've sworn I asked about this earlier in the game, and was told that nothing is set in stone until a full majority or deadline. Swear to God, it will take me a year to learn this game

I also thought I specifically remembered that...hmm.

Um not it definitely couldn't. Few if any doubt that I am town this game. I meant to demonstrate why your post 983 was so wrong but thought it was pointless because you'd already decided to lynch a claimed metal (nice work on that), but it looks like I'll get another chance:

People doubt you're scum

solely

because of your Glissa claim. Read Day 2 again, and see just how much everyone has put you on the shelf because of your Glissa claim. Nobody has questioned your night action, immediately blaming me for the death earlier.

Hmm.

I'm well aware I would have come under much greater suspicion were I not Glissa and had not claimed. That doesn't mean it's not very good evidence I am town *specifically because almost everyone's role pm says I am*. And I don't believe anyone has blamed you for Gremwell's death, some such as me have strongly considered the possibility you are responsible however.

In addition, you DID see

why

I decided to lynch a claimed metal, right?

I think so, but would you spell it out please so I can check your argument.

The thing about not knowing Timeater claimed is utter garbage; replacements are expected to read the whole topic to have context for what followed. Never mind that the massive lurking and general unhelpfulness is a very good reason IMO for disliking TonyMontana from the beginning, and almost saw him lynched D2.

That's a fair enough point about TM I suppose, I certainly dislike his lurking.

Was that game good? No.
Moreover, I trust Natirasha wouldn't put such a horrible role in his game; he's a reasonably active moderator and doesn't have an awful reputation. What's probable, do you think?

I actually don't see it as as overpowered as you do, but the discussion of your role is leading nowhere so I'll drop it.

I never said you *must* be scum.

But didn't you just say that it made sense for me to be scum with all those powers, and have you expressed interest in an alternative theory?

Well I certainly don't think I've been tunneling on you. I am suspicious of you placing doubt on me and CF Riot. Me vs CF Riot and Porkens was very prevalent earlier in the game and has turned right around based on their detective work and my roleclaim specifically. You seem to be the only? person who still tries to place suspicion on us.

??? Why??? Setups are usually meant to be balanced

Mountainous (all vanillas) is not balanced, therefore I believe scum has an inherent advantage in games before roles are factored in. This game IS mostly vanilla, realize.
I think there's a related discussion in MD right now about the worth of scum and Town. Mafia can use their planning and knowledge of the setup to defeat the Town more easily than the Town can use their numbers to press the Mafia.

I consider this game *completely* non vanilla actually- the serum is a further twist on the normal rules regarding abilities.

I've already explained I don't think it's preposterous, if you did get an extra night-kill then you'd need some way of explaining it.

And the explanation is preposterous.

Don't think so but am steering away from this line of discussion.

Well, yes, if we have the luxury of synthing everyone this is kind of entailed by what I said. It is totally inconsistent with you opting to waste a lynch on Illumina however.

For the, what, third time - do you realize WHY I did not believe the lynch on Illumina was a waste?

Please indulge me and tell me (again?)

What does this even mean?

I'm defending my stance on CF Riot. I think he's scummy, but not scum.

Well I don't like the word usage then, I would prefer "playing badly for town" if that's what you think.

Again, don't understand what point you're trying to make. You seem to speculate that they were bussing and then say they weren't...

Reading comprehension.

Do you use it?

Again. I believe there was bussing going on. I do not believe Porkens was doing it because he started the wagon.

My comprehension is irrelevant if your post is completely unclear to begin with. I was more thinking that if Porkens and CF Riot were both scum, they would deliberately orchestrate a plan day 2 to bus their buddy out of nothing (which I think is a far-fetched hypothesis). But I see what you mean now. I have no desire to suspect CF Riot- if he's scum, I'll deal with it, but there's a much, much greater probability of others being scum imo.

Lynch Vi. The simplest explanation for the new kill flavor is a 3rd part killer. That means it's Ort or Vi.

And considering I have demonstrated my serum ability, I would come to the opposite conclusion.

I've actually pasted the text after I got serumed. I'm not sure if you have. It would be to see it (again?).

I will wait for Vi to respond before re-voting him, but the fact remains numbers-wise, if we lynch him versus lynching Illumina who I don't really have that much reason to doubt is metal, we will learn a whole lot and the game won't end any earlier (Starting Day 4 with 6 players versus 5 means we are in LyoL no matter what).

What, exactly, do you plan on learning from my flip should it be Town? (and it will be)

Not sure, but as far as I can tell it will finally reveal to us whether or not you're scum and carries no drawbacks apart from you no longer giving us your opinions. Of course it's possible there is another double night-kill but that seems a ridiculously unfair setup to me.

[ortolan]

...still wished we'd synthed geraintm, of the two with erroneous claims he's done a whole lot less this game apart to jump into defend himself

[ortolan]

If each scum is claiming the opposite of what they really are

Do you think Natirasha gave them custom-made safeclaims depending on what they asked for?

Furthermore why are you so insistent on defending Vi?

And what do you have to say about the capital T in your claim, why would your post be worded differently to everyone else's except geraintm?

Finally, Vi, I don't think you've yet replied as to why you specifically think my play is bad, even today, so when you reply to my last post would you answer that as well?

[ortolan]

um yes...I do, that's why I wanted him synthed rather than you (and his claim also had the erroneous T), but that's because I believe he is metal

[ortolan]

Finally, Vi, I don't think you've yet replied as to why you specifically think my play is bad, even today, so when you reply to my last post would you answer that as well?

You didn't see my analysis of D2, where you were basically on SSK's side until the very end?

You said "ortolan is losing the game for Town again" implying my play was still errant. I admit it was less than optimal on days 1 and 2 but I was wondering what about today you seemed to have a problem with...apparently nothing.

Of course, if you really are what you claim to be, you might get to see an extra night-kill anyway.

What does this mean?

And thanks for recognizing that you were only cleared by your claim~

I had never suggested otherwise...

[ortolan]

You said "ortolan is losing the game for Town again" implying my play was still errant. I admit it was less than optimal on days 1 and 2 but I was wondering what about today you seemed to have a problem with...apparently nothing.

oic
That had to do with the reasonably large amount of Bad Logic you were pushing on me to make me out to be scum, addressed earlier in that post.
(Yes, I see Porkens is doing the same thing but I have more faith in him. Granted, me having faith in someone usually means they flip scum, but whatever.)

Bad logic is bad logic, irrespective of how town in your mind the person is. If I am suspicious of you for similar reasons to Porkens, my actualy *logic* can't be any worse than his simply based on you thinking he is more likely to be town. You might doubt my *motivations*, however. And what is snowboarding? Is that a mafia term (just out of curiosity)?

What does this mean?

I'm not responsible for Gremwell's death.
If you weren't either, then chances are you might see another extra night-kill for the same unexplained reasons.

Hmm. In my tendency to speculate hugely I had considered that Memnarch has an ability to try to target me, and gains something from doing so (as my flavour says he is "chasing" me) and that in fact Gremwell was *my* metal body double- who somehow was sacrificed when Memnarch tried to target me (even though I was immune any way). In which case if I end up between copper bread buns tonight and we've lynched you then town will lose.

However, I still hope the copper bread buns death was a once-off and we can lynch you safely. If nothing else I want to find out if SpyreX was right about you (remember he did sacrifice himself on day 1 because he was so sure of your alignment).

And sorry, but I'm a bit unconvinced by this

In all role PMs, I may have put typos on purpose just to avoid the usual modWIFOM that involves with quoting role PMs. Just a friendly warning.

I'd certainly already considered this possibility, by saying this I think it makes it more likely a mistake was made (sorry Natirasha, but we need everything we've got to have a chance at winning at this point)

[ortolan]

Can we at least agree with CF that we're in lylo if we lynch a townie today? Let's make the best long-term play by testing either TM or geraintm's claim.

[/quote]

No we cannot, because I think it's possible that if we mislynch today we will actually just lose before day 4 even dawns, if scum again get two nightkills. That said I'd rather take the risk on Vi.

Also: if you wanted to lynch me and myco geraintm, why not the other way around? If you think geraintm is scum, you've got to realize that he'd claim the opposite of what he really is. Therefore lynching him is a solid play.

I really, really disagree and am highly skeptical someone claiming the role title "mycosynth golem" would turn out to be flesh. It really looks to me like you're trying to divert the lynch from Vi. I wouldn't go past you being scum with Vi and geraintm being an SK.

[ortolan]

And what is snowboarding? Is that a mafia term (just out of curiosity)?

Snowboarding is similar to skateboarding, but on ski slopes. I tossed it in for comic relief in light of Post #1080, as 1080 refers to doing three complete spin-turns in midair (360 degrees + 360 degrees + 360 degrees).

Ah, sorry, I do actually know what snowboarding is, I just wondering what it meant in the context of your post. I see the 1080 reference now.

Out of curiosity, ortolan, where geographically are you from? You can be vague if you like.

I'm from Sydney, Australia.

If nothing else I want to find out if SpyreX was right about you (remember he did sacrifice himself on day 1 because he was so sure of your alignment).

Being dead and Town doesn't mean he's right. The whole informal suicide pact idea was retarded IMO anyway.

I certainly don't disagree on this.

No we cannot, because I think it's possible that if we mislynch today we will actually just lose before day 4 even dawns, if scum again get two nightkills. That said I'd rather take the risk on Vi.

In other words, you're exceptionally confident that I'm scum.

I dunno about that. To be honest I'm not liking our chances of winning anyway and I'd probably go with finally confirming you over the risk of losing tonight via another double night-kill. Maybe that's stupid of me.

I wouldn't go past you being scum with Vi and geraintm being an SK.

I don't think SKs fit in this setup, again. Moreover, interactions with SSK (who didn't fit in this setup either ) would suggest that geraintm is more likely scum than third party.

Could be a good point, I'll have to have another look. Can you remember any posts off the top of your head?

The dramatic juxtaposition of desperate pleading, gallows humor, semirational discussion, fierce bloodlust, relative nonchalance, indecision, and conspicuous absence of the real criminal makes for interesting reading - especially considering I speak as the second listed participant - but if you're not going to make a decision soon, you're going for No Lynch. Whether that's preferable or not is basically up to you. But now would be a good time to put in for the deadline extension if you plan on/expect to be delaying much longer. It's free for you and cheap for the mod.

That's ok with me.

Mod: can we have an extension please?

[ortolan]

Let it be known I have changed my opinion on Vi- I no longer want him lynched. I would like to hear from geraintm and TM who they think is the most scummy before we take further aciton.

[ortolan]

I think we should seriously consider nolynching or lynching geraintm

I'm getting a strong feeling the scumteam is just Illumina/ geraintm now (remember they were the two with the dodgy fakeclaims). I've liked TM and Vi's more recent posts. Still re-reading, give me a moment.

[ortolan]

See I see Illumina as scum possibly defending town-Vi because he knows it will look good when he flips town having defended him.

I also see his trying to divert the lynch onto geraintm as something which, if it even succeeds, will make it look like he is suspicious of his scumbuddy (thus dissociating the two) but will do no real damage because geraintm is metal anyway.

Also, remember that if we misslynch today and there's another double kill tonight, we actually *lose* outright. However I could still consider lynching Vi if desired.

[ortolan]

I honestly think it unlikely there's an SK in this setup- not only would 8 townies vs 4 scum players be kind of unfair (especially in light of the whole needing to mycosynth most of them before they hand thing), but it does seem quite a crappy SK role that only gets a night-kill when they get serumed.

But as I said, maybe we will have fewer regrets if we just lynch Vi at this point anyhow.

[ortolan]

You do realise if you're still suggesting I was responsible for the night-kill that Porkens originally thought I was a vig. If I were an SK I could have just ridden on that claim he manufactured for me. Instead I told the truth and pasted the ability pm I got- which says what I got out of the serum was simply being untargetable. I also don't think if you get lynched today and flip town I'm going to be particularly suspicious of Porkens for the fact tomorrow anyway.

[ortolan]

Trying to divert suspicion onto me when clearly no-one is going to vote me is not going to help you not get lynched

geraintm, when you post give us something big to dissect. Tell us if you think we should lynch/ no lynch Vi today, and tell us who you think is the scummiest out of you/ Tony Montana/ Illumina / Vi.

[ortolan]

If what I say now points people in the right direction in the future, it's a net gain.

and if it diverts suspicion onto me when I'm town (assuming you're town), it's a net loss

[ortolan]

I've already said I'm not at all convinced you're scum, but as has been pointed out I'm not sure what the risk of testing you out is. I think the most likely scenario is no SK, 3-man scum team consisting of MafiaSSK, geraintm and Illumina.

[ortolan]

9 v 3 is standard. And the scum additionally I would think get an advantage through having a higher proportion of their players being metal. Plus I highly doubt Natirasha took into account the possibility of making a mistake on the safeclaims when designing the setup.

Why am I not surprised you think so? Tell me how exactly mycosynthing a golem already made of mycosynth is supposed to work? Then try to tell me his claim is more convincing than mine.

Whether his claim is real or fake, I'm sure Natirasha wrote it. Thus it's either his actual role or Natirasha thought it plausible as a safe-claim. Either way I don't think you can read anything into it- I am inclined to interpret the capitalised T in yours and his role pms as incriminating however. Why do you think they're in there?

[ortolan]

How do we "test" TM's flesh claim by lynching him? If he's telling the truth he...dies.

[ortolan]

I have no desire to lynch TM currently.

I am torn between lynching Vi (quite probable he is town and if he flips as such then I will look like the SK) vs not lynching (still possibly scum aligned and we may have just given him the game)

[ortolan]

the setup-WIFOM is agonising

[ortolan]

I'm not at all sure you're scum Vi. Consider this a gamble (deadline is today anyway).

Vote (lynch): Vi

[ortolan]

I deliberately left that in the open to see who would hammer

Illumina decides to, despite very recently assuring us how convinced he is Vi is town, despite there being a "no lynch" option. Assuming no double kill, lynch Illumina tomorrow, myco geraintm then lynch the day after to claim the win for town imho

[ortolan]

Vi- the other point against Illumina is that he is "Town-aligned"

That's probably the most incriminating for me.

[ortolan]

We *have* lynched Vi now haven't we?

[ortolan]

um...

[ortolan]

Well, that's certainly...interesting.

At least it looks like what we thought about those roleclaims was right- the two with capitalised Ts were dodgy. Unfortunately I have absolutely no idea as to what Illumina's win condition actually was, so am somewhat confused.

In other news, what did you get from the serum Porkens?

[ortolan]

Also; clearly there is a serial killer with a metal piercing kill. Presumably they double-targetted Wall-E on night one or there is another strange aspect to the mechanic. I also note that if Porkens is the SK, the fact he wanted to lynch MafiaSSK means little, but the same can be said for TM.

[ortolan]

[quote="Porkens]]Uhhh, don't you think "In the distance, you hear a large crash. Going towards it, you find a dead Tarmogoyf. Next to it is

Illumina, Arcbound Ravager, self-aligned Metal Eater

. She walks off, finally killing that beast that has stalked it for so long. " explains the SK kills?[/quote]

But didn't the SK/whatever it is kill Memnarch aka geraintm? The Tarmogoyf thing is something entirely different, and it doesn't even appear to be a player.

[ortolan]

I don't understand what you're saying

But you already know and have acknowledged that I can neither be a vigilante or the SK, because you used your jailkeeper ability on me last night.

[ortolan]

I'll wait for him to respond first, thanks.

[ortolan]

Would you each re-iterate why each other are scum, and what faction scum you believe each other are at that?

[ortolan]

TM is there any reason I shouldn't hammer you?

I've almost finished re-reading.

[ortolan]

Screw this.

Vote (lynch): TonyMontana

Your faction deserves to win Porkens. I just hope it's the same as mine

I think I worked out Illumina's win condition was just to eat two metals also

Awaiting gloat post(s).

[ortolan]

Good, we did win

I'd really like to see the dynamics revealed now

[ortolan]

Also, despite being neutral Illumina actually won the game for town.

[ortolan]

God, we're idiots though, I could have role-blocked him and we could have de-mettalled him just in case

That's true.

I just realised Illumina's role was probably in the game to punish people for claiming metal...interesting setup to speculate on, and I'm still holding my breath waiting to see if TM was metal or not.

[ortolan]

Lucky I was Glissa ay

Cool game, I think I wasted too much time speculating about theme-WIFOM though.

That and on day one the three people I was most suspicious of were actually all town. I must say it was kind of dissapointing that all three scum thought the best strategy was to lurk, and furthermore that they almost won by doing so. For the record though, TonyMontana didn't really act *that* scummy during the game, but on re-reading he did defend MafiaSSK pretty strongly before it became clear he was scum. Apart from that there was no way I was going to vote Porkens in the end-game when he'd probably posted about 100 times as much content as TM- so ultimately the lurking did hurt the scum, I think (and to think TM probably lurked the least of the scum, too, lol).

[ortolan]

and I would pre-in for Mind Screw Gaiden but I'm in four minis atm

[ortolan]

Yer, I swear you said at one point that we could unvote not lynch majorities. TM seemed to think the same.