Mini 702--Serum & Steel(The rust has settled/Game Over)
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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This should be fun.
Vote: Tony Montana
Serum: Illumina
Mycosynth: Wall-E
No reasons.
I shall give my thoughts on how to assign the blinkmoth serum later in the game day.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Sorry if this seems a dumb question, I think you said this in the sign-up post but I don't remember and can't find it now.
Is this based on a novel series? Or is it based on magic: the gathering cards like google seems to suggest? I was just wondering for background reading purposes, lol.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Some thoughts: simply voting for oneself for the serum without giving any justification is unlikely to entice others to also vote for you, therefore is not going to result in you getting the serum. The only way one could make it more appealing for others to vote for you and thus have a chance of being nominated for the serum is by either role claiming or at least hinting at one's role and the benefits that you getting the serum will bring to the town. I take it no-one's about to do this, at least at this stage. There is, I believe another way of assigning the serum (a very simple method also) but I don't think it's best I suggest it until the day has progressed and we've had far more discussion.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Actually I came up with a different idea which people can give their thoughts on. If there's any townie, made of steel, who believes they would benefit the town by getting the serum, then they should claim. The fact they are made of steel may prevent them being nightkilled before they can use their ability or confer their benefits upon the town. It should also be an ability which is able to be verified by the town for what it did the following day, to preclude the possibility of them being scum. If they turn out to be scum lying and something happens other than what they claimed we can throw them in the mycosynth on day 2 and lynch them day 3 (come to think of it this may be argued to be a bad plan as a result). Of course another drawback is that it is more than possible that scum have an ability to remove steel themselves, depending on how many townies are made of steel.
While one problem with this plan is that the scum may be able to remove the serum-receiver's steel and kill them in the same night, I don't see a way round this regardless of who we give the serum to. By giving the serum to someone we risk them being nightkilled anyhow (however if there is a doctor role they'd want to target the receiver).
There is also the possibility there may be an argument for assigning the serum without any role-claiming. If scum do not know what the player can do with the serum then they do not know whether it's worth killing them or not.
Any thoughts on any of these approaches?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Am I correct in interpreting from the first post that we are free to quote our role pms in the thread?
Perhaps you should do so if that is the case (I see no harm as you've already claimed)
I would advise against anyone else claiming at this stage however.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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I'd be fine with giving you the serum then, but I'll wait for other comments first.
The only slight reservation I have is that in my role pm, unlike yours, it seems as though my powers from the serum are kind of "hinted" at (although I could be wrong). In your case I don't see anything like that. However I hardly think that's a good reason to think you made it up. I hope it will be an ability you can offer some proof of the next day.
Also,Unvote all-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan wrote:Some thoughts: simply voting for oneself for the serum without giving any justification is unlikely to entice others to also vote for you, therefore is not going to result in you getting the serum. The only way one could make it more appealing for others to vote for you and thus have a chance of being nominated for the serum is by either role claiming or at least hinting at one's role and the benefits that you getting the serum will bring to the town. I take it no-one's about to do this, at least at this stage. There is, I believe another way of assigning the serum (a very simple method also) but I don't think it's best I suggest it until the day has progressed and we've had far more discussion.
I intended to illustrate that simply voting for oneself without claiming serves no purpose.One finds this statement useful - obvious but useful. One wonders why one would vote for someone else with no reason considering the merits listed above.
I actually did have an alternative in mind. This was that we let a fair portion of the day go past and then simply nominate who we found the least scummy for the whole day. Hopefully we would get a townie and then the mafia would have no idea of their role or possible serum abilities and whether they were worth nightkilling. My reasons were for not stating this plan up-front is that it would have given mafia players a reason to act particularly unscummy were they aware of it up-front.One also finds no merit in talking about talking about a plan while waiting for discussion when one knows that the fact such a plan exists will shape said discussion.
That is, admittedly, a possibility.One expected this to happen. One did not expect it so early.
However, one also knew that if PM's were available that our Mod would give evil ones claims that were safe.
No-one has said he should get the serum yet, he only has one vote the serum so far which he has placed. It is regretful that he claimed so early but it can't be helped now.One is very hesitant in giving a metalloid the serum. One is also even more hesitant that it has been done this early to one that was willing to vote for oneself to gain said serum.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Firstly, here's hoping for an Obama victory
But I have to take you up on something:
What do you mean by that? "become" implies a change you will undergo as a result of taking the serum. If you are suggesting you will "become" immune because you are metal then you already metal, so this doesn't make sense.I am the best candidate to get a power because I will become immune to the whole night-kill process
If you are suggesting you will "become" immune in some additional sense having taken the serum, then I thought you didn't know what the serum would do to you?
Care to comment?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan wrote: I actually did have an alternative in mind. This was that we let a fair portion of the day go past and then simply nominate who we found the least scummy for the whole day. Hopefully we would get a townie and then the mafia would have no idea of their role or possible serum abilities and whether they were worth nightkilling. My reasons were for not stating this plan up-front is that it would have given mafia players a reason to act particularly unscummy were they aware of it up-front.
There was a reason I kept it quite, which I have already given. Namely that it would encourage scum to act as un-scummy as possible in order to attract the vote. We can still go for this plan, especially if no-one else claims. It was unfortunate Timeater claimed when he did. I really hope no-one gets the impression I tried to engineer my suggestion so that people were encouraged to give Timeater the serum specifically.We find this a better course. We wish it would have been taken. The one taken is not a good one. The fact that this better plan was just kept quiet until unveiling versus what has happened is worth noting.
That has to be noted also I'm afraid.Timeater wrote: Er, thats a typo. Just like how I said "As I player, I dont really have any gimmicks are obvious "tells" - typing 'are' when I meant "or" - I meant to type "I am" in that instance.
As I've stated, my role pm also seems to suggest I will gain certain powers from the serum. This is another reason to be somewhat suspicious of Timeater's role claim.Wall-E wrote:In my role PM I have an indication that the serum will grant me powers. I see no such indication in Timeater's PM. For that reason alone, I will not vote to serum Timeater.
Perhaps everyone could give an indication of the extent to which their role pm suggests what power they will gain if they get the serum (but do not reveal your role or what the benefit of the serum is). If it turns out everyone's does but Timeater's then we'll have good evidence for a fakeclaim.
I in fact now think it may be a good idea to go with my original suggestion: let discussion take place and ultimately vote to give the serum to least scummy player without any roleclaims. It seems too risky to give Timeater the serum, especially in light of SpyreX's point in 54:
If Timeater has no idea what the serum will do for him then there's no particular reason to give it to him. Additionally if he is indeed made of steel he's (barring scum having a remove steel skill) safe from a nightkill anyhow.After wasting the valuable serum day 1 and, in fact, not being able to kill me directly the next day you can after I've done massive amounts of damage if I am scum (and you have no reason to think I am town) kill me - ps I have also claimed a role that will by nature force kills onto someone else and give me a perfect reason why, if I am lying, I in fact will never be NK'd-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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[/quote]Do you think I just made the role up? Do you think I'm lying about the role? Or do you think that just because there isn't indication about serum there will be no effect when I get power? According to Nati's original post in the queue, anyone could get powers. And I dont see any rules about metal players not being able to recieve powers the benefits of serum. [/quote]
I don't want to talk about probabilities but it is certainly *possible* you made the role up, or are lying about the details. Perhaps the mod could clarify if indeed everyone gains some power from the blinkmoth serum.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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I highly doubt a lynched metallic person's alignment would be revealed. That would make it far too easy for town metal players (of whom Timeater claims to be one) to clear themselves.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Few things:
I think it is in town's best interests to assign the serum each day, if it is correct as someone suggested that town proportion is around 75%. Unless of course to balance this the powers the scum gain from the serum outweigh the helpful powers the townies gain from getting it, to balance it out.
I also strongly get the impression that the proportion of mafia who are steel would be greater than the proportion of townies who are steel. I could be wrong, however it is also strongly implied by Timeater's role pm: "you decide to help the fleshies", assuming he is telling the truth about it.
I am all for randomly assigning the serum but how are we going to do it?
Is it indeed possible to manipulate the random dice rolls? If so how is this going to work? Also, presumably everyone should contribute to the random picking with their own dice roll, but is how is that going to work also? Are we just going to do it according to whose number comes up the most often?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Sorry, I think I need another rule clarification. I think from Nicholas Bolas' previous post the serum/mycosynth, if they've reached a majority vote, only get assigned once someone has been lynched.
If this is the case, what does "serum only lasts one day/night cycle mean"
Does that mean it only lasts for the night straight after it was assigned, or the next day also?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I agree with this, I kind of expected this would happen when I put forward my plan. After all, there's not really much harm in scum finding out what the ability is after it's been used once, because using the serum on somebody twice means they will die if not given it continually, and I don't think we're going to want to be giving the serum twice to anybody early in the game.Seraphim wrote:I think that if anyone gets the Serum, he/she should post the following morning with whatever role they recieved and what they did with it that night.
I agree with this argument also. I don't think whether Timeater is metal or not is really in question, it is more a matter of his alignment. The only reason I can think of for him claiming to be a metal townie when in fact he is fleshie scum is that it would provide an excuse as to why he was not night-killed immediately after gaining the serum. He can say scum didn't target him because, of course, he is metal. That said I'm not sure the benefits of this in the case he got the serum outweighed the possibility we would vote to lynch or mycosynth him, either of which would reveal whether he is metal or not. So in summary we should be debating his alignment but probably not whether he is metallic/non-metallic.CF Riot wrote:
ToWall-Eand everyone else, I think if you believe TE actuallyismetal, whether you think he's town or scum, you shouldnotbe trying to lynch him, as you are essentially voting to no-lynch. Also, if he is town, you are proving to the scum that he's metal without them testing it out with a kill of their own. (I doubt scum would try this, but you see my point.)
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Also, I am still for the random serum assigning method but there seems to be a slight issue.
Tuberkulos, the beneficiary of the random serum vote has only made two posts in the thread- a confirmation one and an entirely contentless one. There may be two reasons not to give the serum to him. Firstly, if he has been this inactive he may not even bother or get the chance to put in a night action. Secondly if people think lurking to that degree makes it more likely that he is scum then it may be worthwhile to reconsider.
That said I am not in any way trying to undermine the random process which led to the allocation of serum to him, but there may be good pragmatic reasons for randomly selecting someone else to give the serum to- perhaps we could randomly select from the sufficiently active players this game? While lurking doesn't necessarily indicate one is scum, it seems contributing in large quantities certainly wouldn't suggest one is scum either. Furthermore selecting someone who's actually going to use the serum and has contributed in decent quantities will make for a more interesting game and (possibly) make town more likely to win.-
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CF Riot wrote:This was supposed to be connected to my first post but I hit 'Submit' by accident.
Seraphim, I'm against the idea of posting what we do with the Serum right away. As scum, there's nothing I like more than seeing a town lay out every piece of information they have hoping it will strengthen the town. It's incredibly easy for scum to take what appears to be a well thought out plan and turn it on it's head becausethey know things we don't. To assume they won't be able to manipulate ideas put in plain daylight is underestimating your opponent. I think how the serum is used by each player is circumstantial, so we shouldn't have a policy that applies to every circumstance...
This seems _slightly_ contradictory because the whole idea of random voting is that there is nothing systematic in it that the scum can try to manipulate. Your very idea of giving it to the townie judged the "best" seems to be something that could easily fit into the category of something the scum could manipulate. That's why I proposed random voting within certain constraints i.e. only among those who have contributed a certain amount. I explained why I didn't believe this made us more likely to pick scum because simply posting lots doesn't make one more likely to be scum, indeed there may be a small effect that posting less makes you more likely to be scum, on average.CF Riot wrote:
If you let the dice pick, you're taking away valid judgments that can be made towards a person's ability to choose wisely. I'm not worried about random voting giving the serum to scum, I'm worried about giving it to a townie that will waste it or use it ineffectively.
I agree, I think it should be used every day. Also, Timeater's role pm claim strongly implies that the majority of townies are flesh. Assuming 3? scum I'd say 2-3 of them would be metal, but I could be wrong. Of course the mycosynth might be a red herring and only 1, or 0 of the actual scum are metal but I don't know how sadistic Natirasha isCF Riot wrote:As far as I can tell, there are no side effects to throwing a non-metal player into the mycosynth. As such, I think a mycosynth majority should happenevery day. Therewillbe at least 1 metal scum, I'm sure of it.
I personally would prefer the game moved quickly but not at the expense of everyone actually getting the chance to contribute before the day ends. If an extension is felt necessary by others I would support it.CF Riot wrote:I checked page 1, and I am entitled as a replacement to request to extend the deadline by 3 days. Does anyone need it? I thought it'd take me longer than this to catch up but I'm okay now.
That is, admittedly a little bit suspicious unless Seraphim can offer an explanation?Seraphim got voted for not being around, then immediately showed up out of thin air. That tells me he's paying attention and choosing not to post.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Mycosynth: Wall-E
If you are fleshie as you claim then it's not gonna do any harm. If you're not then why would you lie, unless you're scum? I don't suspect you more than anyone else but in the absence of anyone better to mycosynth at present I'll go with you
Does anyone like my idea of redoing the random vote among only those players who've been contributing? Or do you want to stick with Tuberkulos?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Is it still generally considered that we should try to lynch someone instead of doing the apparent equivalent of a no lynch by say, lynching Timeater?
Odd numbers favour town, don't they? The mafia would presumably get one night kill in tonight and we'd have 11 tomorrow and a better idea of the mechanics of the game. But of course it might still be better to try to lynch someone we think is scum.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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To get it clear: what we're choosing between is the random vote, which would entail giving it to Tuberkulos as we already decided that, the partially random vote (my idea), or the entirely-merit-based approach (which would basically just be voting as normal)? To answer your question I'm still not sure which is the best.Wall-E wrote:ortolan: What do you think is the best of the three plans outlined so far? Who do you think should get the serum?
Your post seemed to lack content. Please respond.
[quote="CF Riot]Now you're just agreeing with me but trying to hold on to some degree of randomness. What stipulates "active enough"? It's all going back to just judging who deserves it the most. Not only that, but if you putthisidea out there, it's even easier for scum to benefit by making sure they post just enough to stay above the lurker mark to keep their name in the hat, while inactive/busy/lame townies drop out and raise the scums odds. And this even lets them stay quiet about who they think deserves the serum, which hides their intentions from us, making them harder to read. [/quote]
Well that's kind of what I wanted, a bit of randomness and some selection, that seems certainly no worse than the other options? What I intended was that only the people that have contributed up until now would get included. So I was thinking along the lines of CF Riot, Wall-E, Timeater, SpyreX, me, TonyMontana, Porkens, geraintm (from looking back over the thread). The more I think about it thought this system is just going to cause endless debate over who should be included, so perhaps we shouldn't go with it.
Which leaves us with, our original vote of random on Tuberkulos, or a merit-vote. I'm happy to go with either, especially as I really don't think it's fair that Tuberkulos hasn't contributed _anything_ yet, yet is looking to be the recipient of the serum.
So yer, perhaps the merit vote is the best idea after all.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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Also, I'm going toVote: Seraphim
While there's not a hugely strong case against him I don't like how he posted in other games and _only_ responded in this game when (and immediately after) it was suggested he was lurking. This implies, of course, that he _was_ lurking.
That brings him to 3.
Also, are we changing to a merit vote for the serum? I'm happy to.-
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Yes, I did. Sorry I misread it though, I thought it said he posted 10 times elsewhere and once here but a skimpy post, but in fact you said _all_ his posts were skimpy. So yer, not a strong case really at all but I haven't found anyone else worthy of a vote so I'll leave the vote on in the absence of anyone better.Wall-E wrote: ortolan: Did you see my point about Seraphim's postings throughout the site? I grant you your own point about the timing, but I think the timing was just bad.
Also I couldn't help but notice from two of your old posts...
I *believeeeee* earlier in the thread the mod mentioned that players may or may _not_ receive a benefit from the serum. I might be wrong though?Wall-E wrote:So you're for the plan as long as the recipient claims their power?
There's something off about that, but...
In light of the fact that it's public knowledge that the player DID receive a power, I think you may be right in this case. I'm going to throw support behind this suggestion.
Also it is "bated breath"
Your point is taken. I am _more_ than happy to stick with the random vote but it is somewhat annoying that almost the only person who has done nothing the whole game is the recipient of the serum. But yes, the point about it being open to manipulation by the scum is a fair one. But I don't understand what this stuff is about Illumina? Didn't you just say that you wanted to maintain the random vote (which went to Tuberkulos) and then suggest we should give the serum to Illumina (someone who neither won the random vote nor has done much to earn the serum based on merit). I don't understand the break in logic.Wall-E wrote:I disagree with the meritocracy and removing lurkers from our random serum pool.
Scum is an arguably more exciting role than vanilla townie. I think vanilla townies are more likely to lurk than scum for this reason.
The meritocracy idea leaves us open to manipulation by the informed minority, and the purpose of the random serum d1 is to test the waters while minimizing risk to the town. I think I'd like to see Illumina get the serum D1. I think it's interesting that the random serum plan only started getting shot down AFTER we'd decided on a target for the serum, so there's always that angle. All in all, I want us to random serum today and switch to a meritorcacy tomorrow when we have a better idea of what we're dealing with re: we'll have one person who got serum'd and can tell us just what exactly it does/how we can best use it properly.
So.
Also I have to say something: if Tuberkulos hasn't even posted in 3 days why should we'd be sure he'll even be around to put in a night choice (assuming he can't also use his power the next day)? I am again, not particularly trying to overturn the serum decision but it is a small concern.-
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Sorry, I don't understand what point you're trying to make.geraintm wrote:
disagre, late game when the ratios migth have altered...ortolan wrote:
I think it is in town's best interests to assign the serum each day, if it is correct as someone suggested that town proportion is around 75%. Unless of course to balance this the powers the scum gain from the serum outweigh the helpful powers the townies gain from getting it, to balance it out.
I think it was a reasonable speculation personally. And after night one we still have zero info about the proportion of scum who are metal. And the "help the fleshies" part strongly implies the majority of town are not metal.geraintm wrote:
gaming the mod, seems like a poor idea in this game at least untill we have one nights worth of infoortolan wrote: I also strongly get the impression that the proportion of mafia who are steel would be greater than the proportion of townies who are steel. I could be wrong, however it is also strongly implied by Timeater's role pm: "you decide to help the fleshies", assuming he is telling the truth about it.
No lynch may be a good idea independently of this (it is generally considered better for town to have an odd number of players. Am I right on this?) But I agree, I don't have any reason to doubt Timeater is metal. There is however some reason to be skeptical he is town.geraintm wrote:
not quiet no-lynch, you do get the info on his metalicness, and day one when we have no info, might be better to go with that than trying to lynch scum when the odds are so bad.CF Riot wrote:
ToWall-Eand everyone else, I think if you believe TE actuallyismetal, whether you think he's town or scum, you shouldnotbe trying to lynch him, as you are essentially voting to no-lynch. Also, if he is town, you are proving to the scum that he's metal without them testing it out with a kill of their own. (I doubt scum would try this, but you see my point.)
I agree.geraintm wrote:
i don;'t get this, what you hopig to gain from this? i truly believe he is metalic, so what you planning on doing once you remove that from him?Wall-E wrote:CF's right. I agree with the let's-not-lynch-TE-and-waste-the-lynch argument. Let's either mycosynth or ignore him for today.
I just checked, looks like he hasn't posted at all since his last post in this thread on November the 3rd. He may need to be replaced anyway :Sre orts posting on turbo's lurking. is his urking just in this game or site wide?
Probably not, but there is also value in evidence for the town that the recipient of the serum was actually town-aligned. It is hard to know how to balance these two issues.About annocing serums power, say person got a cop ability, and he used it and got innocent on someone. is it a good idea to post that straight up then?-
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Thoughts on the mycosynth: Timeater has claimed metal and Wall-E has claimed flesh.
Thus I want to nominate someone other than those two for the mycosynth. I still think there's a very good chance most townies are fleshie. Thus if we end up mycosynthing a fleshie townie then we're fine, and if we mycosynth a steel scum then we're even better.
I think it's _really_ stupid to try to remove Timeater's metal pretty much for the sole reason that he early claimed. And I actually don't think we should myco Wall-E either. He's claimed to be town, and fleshie, why would he claim town fleshie rather than town steel if he was in fact mafia steel? Sure there are some possible reasons to, but none of them seem really worth the risk. I propose we use the mycosynth on someone who it will neither be wasted on or possibly entail disadvantage to the town.
So I'm going toMycosynth: Porkens
I'm keeping my vote on Seraphim, because I haven't seen anyone else play sufficiently suspiciously to vote for them.
I think Tuberkulos has a majority for the serum now, I think he has 7-8 votes depending on whether Wall-E has previously voted for him.-
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Yer, as I said, that's a possibility, but I personally don't think the risk of making that claim then having it proved false (i.e. wtf...you told us you were fleshie already, why did you lie?) would be worth the alternative of simply claiming to be a metal townie.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Pretty sure the mod said we can't myco/lynch someone in the same day.Wall-E wrote:I just had the thought that we should be using the mycosynth and lynch together when we don't have a reason not to.
I have the same problem, no-one's really been scummy enough yet.Do we have a D1 lynch target yet? I don't think anyone's even built a case yet. I don't really want to lynch Porkens for the weak shit I voted him for.
Does ANYONE have ANYTHING to go on that I can get behind?-
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No problem, happens to the best of us (I recently got extremely agitated in a newbie game).
Point about the mycosynth: Timeater and Wall-E have both claimed metal/flesh status respectively. I think we should use the myco on someone who hasn't yet claimed. (Going back I realised I already made this point, see post number 255)
That's why I'm going withMycosynth: CF Riot
I'm happy to go back to my previous vote for Porkens if that is preferred.-
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I don't know why everyone keeps ignoring this. Assuming Timeater is telling the truth about his role, this _strongly_ implies that all other townies, or at least the majority, are fleshie. Thus they have nothing to lose by being put in the mycosynth.Timeater wrote:I am Triskelion.
I am a "steel fleet" a town aligned steel being. According to my flavor, I noticed a hole in the razor fields, saw a war waging, and decided to help the fleshies. I win when my faction is the last standing.
If received, I will give full disclosure, and cooperate in any way I can to help verify my claim.
What I meant was they have both made claims and I at this point have no good reasons for doubting either of them. I think if we can get a bandwagon going to synth a different player who then can simply claim metal/flesh then we might have something else to go on.CF Riot wrote:Also, ortolan's logic about who to synth is terrible. You don't want to synth a claimed steel or a claimed flesh, which leads to the question, who do you want to synth? You say the choice is people who haven't claimed, but this seems to advocate everyone claiming their steel/flesh status, which I would argue against. At some point, you have to throw someone in regardless of what they told you they are. I think Wall-E should be that someone.
This falls into the same category as wanting to synth Wall-E. Do you have any good reason to believe he is scum, and lying about being flesh? If not, why do you advocate wasting a mycosynth on him?CF Riot wrote:
Yes, but coming from the idea that yougeraintm wrote:not quiet no-lynch, you do get the info on his metalicness.believethat they are metal, there's no point in confirming that they are, especially by wasting a lynch.
This does not follow... Why should we be more likely to think you are town than Wall-E, and even then why is thinking you're town enough reason not to synth you anymore than it is Wall-E?CF Riot wrote: Regarding synthing me, I suggest you do not. Wall-E is a much better choice. There is no sweet-talking. I am town, which is all you need to know to not synth me.
I don't see this either...Not that I'm accusing you or CF Riot, but it seems to me, that assuming Wall-E and Timeater are telling the truth about their roles (which obviously is a big assumption), then the best outcome scum could want is to mycosynth Timeater. This way they remove the metal from a townie who can then be killed. The second best outcome is to ensure the mycosynth gets wasted on someone, rather than potentially used on a scum who will then by lynchable. Funnily enough, these are the two positions occupied by Porkens and CF Riot respectively.Porkens wrote:Since we can't 'synth and lynch a metal to death in one night, I think we'd be better off just lynching the scummiest person while synthing the next scummiest person.
Of course, at L-1 we'll get a claim, and we can decide from there.
I'm still in favor of synthing time-eater. His claim still puts him at the top of my scum-list right now. And as per my previous 'prediction,' I think he'll be semi-safe as town anyway, so my vote stays for that.
I'd really like to see a good case against, firstly Wall-E, and secondly Timeater if you want to continue attacking them, because I haven't seen a good one so far.
I think I should also defend Seraphim at this point. Porkens, in the above post, seems to be arguing we should lynch Seraphim because he wants to "waste the synth on Wall-E". However this is exactly the same thing that CF Riot (who is also voting for Seraphim) advocates. If we've got a good argument for lynching Seraphim it should be internally consistent. It seems the bandwagon on him is not internally consistent, however.
That said I'm going to keep my vote on Seraphim (I believe he's on 4 votes at the moment) because I wouldn't mind hearing a claim from him. That said there is something I like about the idea of lynching him but also mycosynthing CF Riot, who started the bandwagon against Seraphim and also seems somewhat reluctant to be 'synthed.
That said I'd also like an explanation from Seraphim for this:
What does the "the scum will know exactly who the secret roles will be in this game" mean? I don't follow...Seraphim wrote:First of all, your color tags didn't work. Second...
We'll ask, certainly, but any sort of information that we could glean from that night, IMO, is beneficial to the town. The scum will know exactly who the secret roles will be in this game, so the special roles need to make sure that if, say, they got a guilty result on someone, that the town knows that as soon as possible.Seraphim, if the serum-ee decides when and if to reveal his actions, how can we have a policy of asking?
I hope this post isn't too long.-
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The question is does the benefit scum might be less likely to target them that night because they don't know what the serum outweigh the drawback of the fact that the recipient won't have to claim till the day after (i.e. if they are scum, giving them a chance to make something up or just say "oh hehe actually I didn't get an ability). That said, the mod said the power lasts through the night "and the next day", but I'm not quite sure what this means, presumably some abilities can only be used at night in which case they will have to be used the night following the day they are received, which leaves us with the same problem.CF Riot wrote:
I don't know if you misunderstood or simply misspoke. Maybe I'm just reading your post other than you meant it. No one should declare their night actions before they do them. It was debated whether or not they should declare nightPorkens wrote:However, I think I see what he is saying about declairing night actions after getting the serum.results, which I am against but is more plausible.
The difference is that I *believe* both their claims, or at least have been presented no good reason to doubt them. I thought, and still do, that if we got a synth bandwagon going on someone else we might get a claim out of them. I still believe that, in keeping with Timeater's role claim, townies are more likely to be flesh than scum. Thus if we were to get another person claiming steel we should be suspicious of them, and if we get someone claiming flesh we can choose whether we believe their claim of flesh more or less than Wall-E's. That said we don't particularly need to start another synth bandwagon, because as it looks like Seraphim's being targetted for a lynch we will get a claim out of him before the day's through, which will fill my goal.CF Riot wrote:
You have no good reason to doubt anyone that claims either on D1. No matter who you bandwagon or whether they claim steel or flesh, you have equal reason to doubt/believe all of them. Simply wagoning everyone one at a time as they claim would be stupid. Taking it to the 3rd in line is no more logical than going all the way to the end.ortolan wrote:
What I meant was they have both made claims and I at this point have no good reasons for doubting either of them. I think if we can get a bandwagon going to synth a different player who then can simply claim metal/flesh then we might have something else to go on.CF Riot wrote:Also, ortolan's logic about who to synth is terrible. You don't want to synth a claimed steel or a claimed flesh, which leads to the question, who do you want to synth? You say the choice is people who haven't claimed, but this seems to advocate everyone claiming their steel/flesh status, which I would argue against. At some point, you have to throw someone in regardless of what they told you they are.
Also I've been meaning to check this for a while:
Mod: when we put someone in the mycosynth will we find out if they were metal or flesh before going in?
No you will not
Ok, why do you not believe Wall-E's claim to be flesh? I have seen you give no good reason not to. Even if *you* apparently have a gut instinct you must give some valid justification if you expect others to go along with you.CF Riot wrote:
This is not the same in any way. Lynching someone you believe is metal will send the game to night for the scum to kill, while giving the town no information about that persons alignment. If we myco Wall-E, or anyone, weortolan wrote:
This falls into the same category as wanting to synth Wall-E. Do you have any good reason to believe he is scum, and lying about being flesh? If not, why do you advocate wasting a mycosynth on him?CF Riot wrote:coming from the idea that youbelievethat they are metal, there's no point in confirming that they are, especially by wasting a lynch.knowthey are now flesh. Whether or not they were before is irrelevant. I do notbelieveWall-E is flesh like the other people were believing TE was steel. These two situations are only vaguely similar, and I believe my position is perfectly logical.
What you are saying here is contradictory. You are saying Wall-E is a much better choice (than you). You say "there is no sweet-talking" (I don't understand what this relates to). Then you say we have no more reason to think you are town than Wall-E. WHY then, is Wall-E a much better choice than you?CF Riot wrote:
You shouldn't. You have equally as much reason to believe him as me.ortolan wrote:
This does not follow... Why should we be more likely to think you are town than Wall-E,CF Riot wrote:Regarding synthing me, I suggest you do not. Wall-E is a much better choice. There is no sweet-talking. I am town, which is all you need to know to not synth me.
I do not think Wall-E is town. I know that I am. Also, Wall-E said he was okay with being synthed. I am not.ortolan wrote: and even then why is thinking you're town enough reason not to synth you anymore than it is Wall-E?
Also, what you have said is ambiguous, are you claiming to be steel here? Otherwise why would you have any particular objection to being mycosynthed? I understand people's points about Wall-E flopping around on whether he is happy to be mycosynthed or not. It is possible (but as I already said kind of unlikely as the risks would seem to outweighh the benefits) that Wall-E is scum metal claiming flesh townie to avoid suspicion, which would explain why he is on the one hand seemingly happy to be synthed and on the other subtly trying to avoid it. However, another explanation for his flopping around is that he is simply town flesh and that, while he is town flesh and thus knows it won't hurt him to be mycosynthed, he would prefer if the mycosynth wasn't *wasted* on him. I understand this, as this is basically the same way I feel.
I don't understand why you think a flesh claim without any explicit backing is likely to be a lie. I suspect town fleshie is the most common class of people in the game, I can't see it as likely that any other combination is more prevalent. Why then, would you particularly doubt someone's claim that they fall into this category. Simply saying that they "don't back it up" seems a terrible argument, I'd hope you'd have some justification for your suspicions.CF Riot wrote:
Thisortolan wrote:it seems to me, that assuming Wall-E and Timeater are telling the truth about their roles (which obviously is a big assumption),isa big assumption. Too big at this point. The rest of what you said doesn't matter to me because I donotbelieve Wall-E's flesh claim with no backing.
"I feel like it" is a pretty bad justification if you want to convince people and makes you look scummy. And there is the possibility that Wall-E's flip-floppiness on being mycosynthed is evidence of his being scummy, but as I said I believe the risks of pursuing a strategy where he fakeclaimed fleshie seem to outweigh the benefits, and furthermore my alternate explanation that he is a townie not wanting to waste the mycosynth seems more plausible.CF Riot wrote:
Defending Sera on these grounds is defending him because Porkens is not attacking me. Whether or not Porkens is attacking me has nothing to do with Sera's alignment unless you think Porkens is my scum buddy.ortolan wrote:I think I should also defend Seraphim at this point. Porkens, in the above post, seems to be arguing we should lynch Seraphim because he wants to "waste the synth on Wall-E". However this is exactly the same thing that CF Riot.
I am not really "defending" him, more saying that logic of the bandwagon against him is internally inconsistent. Porkens says he is voting for him for being willing to mycosynth Wall-E. You are willing to mycosynth Wall-E, and are also voting for him, for different reasons (namely that you apparently don't believe his claim to be "town fleshie"). And to your second sentence: I believe I openly entertained the possibility in my last post that you and Porkens were scumbuddies. The fact that you are both on the same bandwagon with diametrically opposed justifications for being there gives a bit of extra support to this possibility. But be aware I'm not suggesting at this point that you and Porkens are scumbuddies, but merely entertaining the notion in light of your respective positions.
I feel like it. He seemed like a good avenue to pursue upon replacing in. Also, I don't know what my quote has to do with what you said about me. (Post 309)geraintm wrote:why you picking on wall-e?
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TE's post 322 is exactly why I want to Myco Wall-E.-
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So you want to no lynch, or lynch someone else? Cause we've got a bit of a dilemma if we're gonna end up lynching the *second* most suspected person.
I think Seraphim should claim before we decide whether to synth or lynch himCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I believe I have mentioned in every post that it is assuming they are telling the truth. I have also mentioned I have no reason to doubt their claims at this stage, and thus reason as I did.Gremwell wrote:ortolan, I don't see why you are defending wall-e so strongly, the only proof you have to go on is that he said he was flesh and town, not even a role pm. you're so willing to take his word on the matter simply because you ASSUME from TE's pm that most townies are flesh, so by that thinking anyone who just says "hey I'm not metal" should be cleared.
It's just a case of outguess the mod, and a poor one at that. just by the law of averages town is likely to have as many if not more metals than scum have.
I guess I'm just tired of you stating that as fact and no one calling you on it.
And I don't agree that the law of averages applies here. Unless the scum have 1+ abilities which can remove steel it would be very unfair for them- they don't have a mycosynth of their own, and assume for example there's like 3 metal townies in the end game- they're not going to be able to kill anyone. So yes, I think scum are more likely to be metal.
CF Riot: point taken about defending Wall-E, and Seraphim, but I'd like to think my level of sympathy with them in my posts is kind of directly proportional to your level of aggression in attacking them (in true devil's advocate style).
No other comments at this stage.-
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lol, there's absolutely no way I'm changing from the random vote without good reason.
Mod: Are you looking for a replacement for Tuberkulos? His last post anywhere on mafiascum was in this thread, 9 days ago.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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Not going on the offensive this post; I just want to ask CF Riot why he has a preference for giving SpyreX the serum over anyone else. If i recall correctly you said in a previous post that you had some reasoning for assigning it to who you wanted to, who turned out to be SpyreX. May I why you'd like SpyreX to have the serum specifically?Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=825
I hope he's gonna post here also, lol. I'll have to assume he's catching up on some reading in this or another game.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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I agree with Porkens on this point. That's all for now.geraintm wrote:
just starting to worry me your thinking, all coming from the claim by time...it seems like that little thing is clouding yor judgement too muchPorkens wrote:@Gremwell; I don't want to assume that the law of averages applies to metal. Don't read this as outguessing the mod but; I don't think he would assign metal randomly to both scum and town. My gut tells me that most, if not all, of the scum are metal, and the town has few, if any, metal roles. My guts been wrong before, but until proved otherwise, I'll expect a worst-case scenario and go with it.-
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I'm all for calling SpyreX's possible gambit on this one.
Vote: SpyreX
I think having asked to be lynched and what he said in post 418 we can't really let him live. He's claimed to be flesh- if he doesn't die we've got ourselves a scum, if he does die then what he flips will give the town a great deal of information
I also, however, agree with him about mycoing Timeater. I think it's too big a gamble for town to leave Timeater as claimed steel having lynched SpyreX.
Myco: Timeater
That said, I don't like how Seraphim has come back having been inactive and merely made a "please state your arguments against me post", then quite passively suggested maybe he should claim. He has still barely posted anything of content. This is in fact the main reason for the potential lynch on him. It's possible he's just a lurky town player but it also seems a fairly viable mafia strategy to play the way he has.
That said MafiaSSK getting the serum seems a reasonable result to me so far.-
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Please if you agree/disagree with this plan, state why; and if you agree, vote accordingly.
I would hope SpyreX at the very least would vote in support of his own plan.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
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This seems all the more reason to go with the plan. Either way, we're going to get *a lot* of information out of it.Porkens wrote: So Spy says he wants us to lynch him and synth TE. TE should be just fine with this if he believes Spy is scum. The fact that he isn't ALL OVER this idea is a tell in and of itself.-
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His claimed role pm suggests it.
In the worst case scenario, if you're both town, then we'll have a lynched townie and someone who the scum may/may not decide to kill that night. If you weren't put in the myco they would just choose someone else to kill who, again assuming your role pm is true, would be guaranteed to be flesh. There's really absolutely no justification for not going with SpyreX's plan.Timeater wrote:Why should I be fine with the town losing its only metalloid? D1 no less?
Why is that ok?
When SpyreX self-votes sure, I'll jump on the wagon.-
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CF Riot, if we lynch SpyreX then it basically confirms you, and to a lesser extent Porkens as town. That is part of the motivation. If neither of you is lynched there is going to be *extremely* strong suspicion, not least from me, for the rest of the game against you and SpyreX. I don't see how you could possibly not be in favour of something that will essentially clear you as town for the rest of the game.
In three sentences you have expressed suspicion of three different people, including me. That is noted.CF Riot wrote:That said, I already believe Spyre to be town. Before the last two days I believed TE to be town. Going along with the gambit in this scenario leads to 2 straight mislynches. I think this is what Ort is aiming for with supporting the gambit. However, I am starting to doubt TE. Either way, I do think Sera is a great lynch today.
There is some case against Seraphim for his lurking, but I am increasingly skeptical of you doggedly pursuing his case when, if SpyreX is telling the truth, lynching him has clear benefits to both town and you personally. I would really like to hear from the people who aren't already heavily invested in the debate as to what they think of the plan.-
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It's not an intentional mislynch at all. He has asked to be lynched, brilliant. If he flips scum, awesome. CF Riot and you are then implicated. If he doesn't then it vindicates CF Riot (because he has supported him all game and argued very strongly for him receiving the serum, which if CF Riot was scum and he wasn't, there is no reason for CF Riot to do) and, to a lesser extent, you (who I believe he has defended several times). If you lynch someone else, such as me or Seraphim, and we flip innocent, you could still all be in league with each other for all town knows.Porkens wrote:I'd honestly be MUCH MUCH happier with lynching ortolan, Seraphim, or, well, CF Riot.
From my point of view, BEST case scenario; we intentionally misslynch today and, if this town can pull it together (which I kinda doubt), we lynch a de-mettaled scum tomorrow.
There are my reservations.
And please don't pretend there is *any* coherent case at this point for me being scum. The person who I have been most consistently defensive of all game, Timeater, is one I am happy to mycosynth for the good of the town,inthe context of SpyreX's plan where he gets lynched too.-
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Lol, you guys have pretty much backed yourself into a corner.
SpyreX, CF Riot and Porkens are inarguably very strongly linked to one another. Skimming the game history I see SpyreX put a serum vote on for Porkens in 107 (arguably a joke vote)
Post 209 CF Riot: "I read Porkens as pro-town". This sentence stands by itself in the middle of the post with no justification, lol.
On the way look @ 228 where SpyreX "likes everything CF Riot" says. I'm just picking these out when they happen to catch my eye.
It's also blatantly obvious they've consistently bandwagoned Timeater, and, to a lesser extent Wall-E (from what I can recall)
And look at Natirasha's vote post 272, after it had been determined to randomly assign the serum. Note randomly, as in not prone to scum interference:
"Porkens(1): SpyreX
Tuberkulos(7): Timeater, ortolan, TonyMontana, geraintm, Wall-E, Seraphim, Illumina "
Again these three stand out from the rest- none of them are voting for the intended random recipient of the serum. The only other people not voting are Tuberkulos himself (inactive), and Gremwell (also relatively inactive all game IIRC).
In post 365 CF Riot starts his campaign to give SpyreX the serum (later he suggests it's something to do with SpyreX expressing great logic all game or something, funny that you guys have unwaveringly felt that way about each other all game).
-Four possibilities on this campaign: CF Riot has independently come to believe that SpyreX is a great, logical poster and thus wants to go against the whole random assignment thing in favour of his hunch. This seems pretty unlikely, but maybe is possible. Why would CF Riot go against the grain of random voting simply to serum someone he "thinks" has a good town vibe? Second possibility, CF Riot is scum and SpyreX is town. If so WHY would CF Riot go against the grain to give the serum to someone he knows will get a pro-town power? This is why neither of these first two possibilities are at all viable. The third, and I'm not gonna exclude this possibility just yet- they are masons. That is why they've been so close all game, and that is why they would want to serum one another. Fourth possibility: he's scum, and this was a blatant gambit to give the serum to scum. And just in case it isn't obvious what this means- CF Riot and SpyreX being independently town is implausible. CF Riot being scum and SpyreX being town is implausible. The only possibilities is that they are masons, or scum. This means, CF Riot, that your following quote:
is simply wrong. SpyreX's flip dictates ALOT about your alignment. As the second possibility above (that you are scum and he is town) is implausible, if he flips town it STRONGLY implies you are also town. In this case at least, Porkens is a different matter, and you might suggest he can not be associated with you two in this case. Either way, I find it hard to believe you wouldn't recognise this and wouldn't support the plan in accordance. (makes me lean towards the hypothesis you're both scum and either being flipped would give the game away)How does Spyre flipping town say anything about mine or Porken's alignment? I don't think our 3 alignments are directly related that way. Yes, Spyre flipping scum would implicate me, and vice versa. Either of us flipping town shouldn't confirm either of the others as town though.
Read post 371 supports my thesis to the letter. Post 374, come on, this is BLATANT WIFOM, and not of the good variety.
The only, _only_ point of difference I see in this group the whole game is Porkens wants to keep the random serum assignment while CF Riot and SpyreX try to divert it (however Porkens obviously didn't like the random serum assignment enough to say...support it with his vote). It's eminently possible he's just seized on one minor point of difference with his buddies to try to distance them from one another.
Finally, post 418, SpyreX's gambit:
"I'll raise you one. I am not a metal. I can be hung today. If you're so sure about your "gambit" - hang me and offer yourself up for the lynch. If I'm scum, well, then your awesome abilities nailed two. When I flip town, they can hang you tomorrow and I double win."
Hey this sounds good to me, I'll vote in favour of it. Furthermore; I think, surely seeing as it's obvious CF Riot, SpyreX and Porkens are so strongly associated with each other, they would jump at the chance to have one of their number lynched and their alignment revealed, to vindicate them for the rest of the game. Oh wait.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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and I've got to answer Porkens' last few posts because they contain some truly horrible arguments.
Firstly, your question addressed to Timeater in the first place was stupid, as it was obvious what his claim to be the only metal townie was based on.
Just answered this in my previous post so no need to tread over it again.Porkens wrote:CF Riot, if we lynch SpyreX then it basically confirms you, and to a lesser extent Porkens as town.
It certainly would NOT do anything to confirm either of us, how can you possibly come to that conclusion?? Because they say they trust eachother?
So instead of going with SpyreX's plan; which has the potential worst case consequence of "misslynching and missynthing two townies right off the bat" (and, I have already argued, give us strong evidence that CF Riot is townie and perhaps weaker evidence that you are), you'd rather go with your plan, which has the potential worst case consequence of...misslynching and missynthing two townies right off the bat, and additionally gives you exactly nothing to go on. You know that...I am dead and you know that...Timeater is now flesh, irrespective of whether he was previously. Furthermore seeing as Timeater and I have basically supported each other all game you just lynched/synthed two people in basically the same camp and have revealed absolutely about Timeater's alignment (obviously you will know mine when I am dead). This is honestly one of the worst arguments I've ever heard and supports my suspicion that you're not interested in good argument but more interested in pulling the wool over the eyes of the town. I'm about 80% sure at this point that you, CF Riot and SpyreX are all scum.Porkens wrote:
This worst case scenario scares the piss out of me. Yes, yes, lets misslynch and misssynth two town right off the bat. I call that risk a substantial justification for not following Spy's plan.
...
God, strike my last post entirely. THIS is why we should hang him.If neither of you is lynched there is going to be *extremely* strong suspicion, not least from me, for the rest of the game against you and SpyreX. I don't see how you could possibly not be in favour of something that will essentially clear you as town for the rest of the game.
unvote
vote: Ortolan
And in case it isn't right;
unsynth
synth: TimeaterCurrently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
Feel free to PM me to be ready in case I need a replacement.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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I know this sooooooooooo isn't gonna happen. You will try and synth Timeater and then CF Riot, Porkens are you are gonna come up with some crummy reasons for lynching someone else (probably Seraphim).SpyreX wrote:
3.) I will hammer myself. Gladly even. However, this aint happenin' until we have a majority on Time getting the synth.-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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