Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Raskolnikov]

By the way, I have not looked at any of GreyICE's reads and I don't know where you got the impression that I did.

Wasn't it you talking about his hoopla read?

[Raskolnikov]

I can see the point about associations though, given she was the major talking point of pretty much the whole game.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Sotty

Okay, I think that's 4 votes then

[Raskolnikov]

Basically for setup spec reasons. If sotty is scum there probably is another pr in that place as masons aren't enough, and they'd likely CC then later.

[Raskolnikov]

It is a dodgy subject for obvious reasons though.

[Raskolnikov]

I like the GM turn from me to IAI vanity and barely saying anything about sotty despite it being literally the biggest point of interest.

[Raskolnikov]

Just to be clear it's actually completely garbage and you couldn't ignore the elephant in the room anymore if you tried. Apparently because "I don't try to read wagons in progress. Or at all." is a real thing.

Ordinarily I'd at least get a not-partner tell here from the switch to vanity instead of cw-ing, but she voted me just earlier when I was starting to look promising, in 180 to her earlier "just looks really town" read (apparently solely because I suggested lynching maria).

[Raskolnikov]

It's always the same with you. "Wagon is bad", "shouldn't lynch claim". Pretty much nothing on ALIGNMENT. An OPINION. You don't actually have a stance on a deeper level.

[Raskolnikov]

It's ironic you judge wagons as you do given when YOU vote it's generally bare, in fact done after talking about a bunch of entirely unrelated things, and I'd think by your own standards they'd all be "not really good".

[Raskolnikov]

Unless maria hard defended both partners to the nth degree, it's probably gm+hoop. The only other person I'd consider is cloud, though he wouldn't be with maria.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't know maria well enough to know if she would intentionally subvert site meta like that, in our last game she seemed pretty bus happy.

[Raskolnikov]

I think 1806 was around that time the jaack wagon stalled anyways and wasn't going to go anywhere
If I think about it, her alternatives to sotty there would have been
-stay on dead wagon
-me wagon which was starting up, which wouldn't work with her townread
-creature wagon that was starting up
-maybe try to start a new wagon from scratch

[Raskolnikov]

If there is scum on the wagon it is hoopla, but I do see some scum lynches go through with both partners vanity voting.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Hoopla

[Raskolnikov]

On one hand I got the impression GM was very lazy about the lynch (which is more of a mislynch thing than a partner thing), but he did hop on both me and creature when those were coming up.

[Raskolnikov]

The vote on me, she said she super townread me before and after it, but did it on apparently a whim, just when I became a possible wagon with cloud+sotty voting and BV potentially voting.

For both creature and me too she seemed to try to get maria voting 1657 1879

[Raskolnikov]

She did seem to want hoopla lynched though.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm wondering who would be a good third for GM if not hoopla. If it's hoopla anyways then it doesn't actually matter.

[Raskolnikov]

Both maria and cloud had townread GM and vice versa, and voted pretty similar, whereas hoopla-gm had distancing which is more of what you'd expect.

[Raskolnikov]

I think Arona, BV, creature, and jaack could and should just form a townbloc and lynch everything else. 4/4 excluding me, 4/5 including me.

[Raskolnikov]

Where do you get your scumreads from anyways?

[Raskolnikov]

Last game it was meta early on and then sheeping and shaky setup speculation for the latter half.

[Raskolnikov]

Like, you've scumread all my townreads and at one point said "never lynching" about each person in my scumpool.

[Raskolnikov]

But why?

[Raskolnikov]

Actually, you haven't really explained it.

And I've been giving you a lot of space because I'm kind of used to this, and it's also a kind of unfair to judge you super harshly every game just because you fooled me once.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't get people's tr on BV and I never will I don't even mainly sr him for having reads that are opposite to mine it's the reasoning and intent behind said reads and I find his trash

Why do you find it trash? What parts?

You said this about the sotty push too, did that not make you re-evaluate at all?

[Raskolnikov]

Our last game, I gave you a lot of trouble the entire game over that paranoia and you ended up town anyways, and I wondered if I would give you a hard time every game just because I personally messed up once. The problem is when you're actually town you're huge lynchbait, so it's kind of a dilemma. So I try to hold off and give you some breathing room until there's something substantial to talk about.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't think it can be cloud+maria together, given their early talk. Cloud+GM or cloud+hoopla fit on first glance, though.

[Raskolnikov]

Also ^that

[Raskolnikov]

Don't think cloud-gm is that good after a skim.

[Raskolnikov]

Hoopla's in every team I see apart from maria-GM.

[Raskolnikov]

IAI brought up twoface reads first thing.

[Raskolnikov]

Ironically, instead of a scum pt slip as was brought up, it looks like that might have been a mason pt slip in retrospect.

[Raskolnikov]

*at the time, obviously

[Raskolnikov]

You guys played with hoopla?

[Raskolnikov]

If cloud's scum then hoopla makes the most sense for him, maria definitely doesn't and gm doesn't work that well.

[Raskolnikov]

Creature, as far as I've seen maria only meta's on her personal experience with someone.

[Raskolnikov]

Actually, I assumed you would die as well.

But now I think IAI was probably killed for mason-slipping at the beginning of yesterday.

[Raskolnikov]

1999 2000
IAI came into the day with quotes, which looked like a scum pt slip. But in retrospect can come as easily from mason pt.

[Raskolnikov]

Now I think about it, IAI kill suggests against maria-gm, as both are likely too lazy to masonhunt and IAI reads-only weren't threatening to that team.

However cloud obviously noticed the slip as he pointed it out, and hoopla is a smart cookie anyways.

[Raskolnikov]

Need a VC.

[Raskolnikov]

Hello friends!

Well, that's a great flip for us.

ewwww

[Raskolnikov]

Hello fellow townies! Sure is great we got that scum lynched yesterday huh?

[Raskolnikov]

tf that flip, this is beyond an obvious bus. The sole reason why would mafia get lynched as uncced pr claim is because they got bussed for towncred

Who has towncred?

so is maria since we both defended scum, so i expected fully to be pushed by scum today like its happening rn

Who is scum pushing pushing you right now?

Bad read, this is the obvious mafia play where they pick the 2 towns who defend mafia, say they cant be a team so they lynch one, then try to make town believe that because of that flip, then the other should be mafia. The sotty lynch is the most obvious bus i have seen in a while, the wagon had resistance but from maria and shes most likely town from meta + d1 votes and so on and im town too. Mafia pushing on the townies who didnt want to lynch pr is obvious here.

Except, I didn't say there has to be one scum in the pair, and have been openly talking about other teams so I don't see how you miss this. In fact, I prefer hoopla ATM as she could still be scum with GM, whereas you'd likely only be with her anyways (in which case it doesn't matter).

This is mafia self-referencing the reason why they killed IAI, i doubt anyone had any idea why IAI got killed nor did anyone made any comment on that, this is rask scum game btw.

Given you pointed it out as a pt slip yourself, I'm not sure how you could genuinely fail to realize the significance in this context.

Rask is an extremely easy read, like i said many times and she can read me pretty darn well too,

Even though we've played before, to assert I'm going to be 100% accurate reading you every game is ridiculous.

yet she voted me and never doubted herself when im town, which is another scumtell imo.

And you make it out as though I'm hard pushing you this entire game whereas it's generally been PoE, a secondary compared to others who I've actually hard pushed, and looking at you as a potential partner during association research, so this characterization doesn't make sense either.

[Raskolnikov]

Hoopla

- I thought Sotty7 was buddying her rather hard. When Hoopla told her at the beginning that she was suspicious, Sotty7 responds with "I'm sad" and then there was her talk about tag-teaming with Hoopla if they were indeed both town. She puts Hoopla down to null/scum for a little while but once Hoopla townreads her again, all suspicion is forgotten. There's a lot of agreement with Hoopla and piggybacking off of her. Finally on D2, there's a ton of whiteknighting Hoopla when it looked like the latter was going to be lynched. Sotty7 was jumping through Hoops* to keep her appeased.

*No pun intended.

I forgot about sotty's early hoop stuff. 119 311 and does look buddyish, and that was super early and way before sotty was going down or anything either, though she never stopped. Though I think it was sotty who said that associations were literally her specialty/biggest strength when scum so eeeeeh.

[Raskolnikov]

Okay, so I looked over Sotty7's ISO to see how she interacted with people. Arona and Jaack are obviously town so I'm going to focus on the other six people for now.

goodmorning

- Saying she wants to join the Sotty7 wagon over BBT's seemed unnecessary because she had been laying down the groundwork to push BBT anyways. Then there's the way Sotty7 reacted to her scumread by trying to placate her and make her see reason that I don't see as scumbuddy interaction. GM pushing in 588, Sotty7's response in 590, GM's 694, Sotty7's 795, GM's 811, Sotty7's 827 and GM's 884 are the back-and-forths I'm referring to. GM's basically going "you are scum but I'm not going get into why" and the gist of Sotty7's response is "please do tell me."

inb4 GM goes "but I totally would have pushed Sotty7 D1 if I was her partner and your reasons are rubbish." I'm just going to point out that I'm not going to call GM town because she seems allergic to that - let's just call her a cat in wolf's clothing.

@Rask, if you are still scumreading GM, give those a quick look and let me know what you think because this is one of my stronger reads.

It's good from sotty's side, but thing is still that GM did CW her and especially the vote on me was out of nowhere for her reads when I became a wagon prospect. It also feels like sotty treated everyone against her with some appeasement (barring me/"scumreads"), and if I take out both hoopla and gm on that basis I only really have maria/cloud which doesn't make much sense either.

[Raskolnikov]

I wish there wasn't an insta flashwagon onto cloud before hoopla posted today, it makes it hard to judge if she's doing it because she has to or not.

[Raskolnikov]

I doubt any of my scumreads are PRs, tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

If we do massclaim I don't think it should be popcorn (someone like maria has wacko reads but could still be town), but rather decided by the common townreads making a list.
Or would just get mason to dictate it, if they're up for it.

[Raskolnikov]

I'd agree that the hard defending would have had to be planned. In which case it'd probably have been with the NK choice, given the particular logic used that it was too obvious a kill implicating sotty to actually be true, and it would've been pretty clear when making that how it would look.
In that same scenario though the sotty lynch going through isn't expected (jaack got that done, and I think jaack-maria interactions are too genuine) for what that's worth.

[Raskolnikov]

Hoopla, you were null to townreading (loltown) cloud for a lot of the game, is that quote enough to have you think he's the best choice for today?

[Raskolnikov]

I'm surprised you're going along pretty easy with what's happening despite your expressed doubts, and theory on sotty being bussed.

[Raskolnikov]

It's that he's the "obvious lynch candidate" to you, but it's not clear if that's a function of him being the most likely lynch or if you independently think it's the best choice. You've mentioned him the least compared to even your theories and paranoia, so I want to know more about how you came to him as your most obvious choice.

[Raskolnikov]

Raskol, I've seen you weighing up the validity of a variety of different scumteams today, but you've not mentioned Creature at all, which I don't get. What did he do that was town enough to exclude him from your PoE?

This is the creature I know, and barring GM he's been pretty much the same as me as far as game approach.

And "Waffling with maria", despite how it sounds, makes a lot of sense from anyone whose played with maria more than once.

[Raskolnikov]

The only thing is, as of very recently he feels a little complacent.

[Raskolnikov]

Raskol, I've seen you weighing up the validity of a variety of different scumteams today, but you've not mentioned Creature at all, which I don't get. What did he do that was town enough to exclude him from your PoE?

If he was scum I think he'd be more concerned about the flak people are giving him.

From what I've looked into too he has less presence as scum and doesn't seem as interested in the game.

[Raskolnikov]

It's the mirroring tell.

[Raskolnikov]

This is the creature I know, and barring GM he's been pretty much the same as me as far as game approach.

[Raskolnikov]

If you're reaching the same conclusions as me, but completely independently and often without even knowing, you're thinking along the same lines.

His style is low information by default, but what is there I haven't seen anything malicious in.

[Raskolnikov]

If you're reaching the same conclusions as me, but completely independently and often without even knowing, you're thinking along the same lines.

His style is low information by default, but what is there I haven't seen anything malicious in.

A lot of the players are sharing pretty similar views as you, me included, subbing in me as town and Creature as possible scum. Where are my town points for being one away like Creature is?

Also, if this tell is so potent to the point of completely clearing Creature, the antithesis of this is someone with polar opposite views of yours must be exceptionally scum, so why isn't Maria your top suspect?

No, it's a micro thing. Approach and conclusions.
I was I think the only person annoyed at the possibility of the d1 wagons being TvT. Because victor was town yet greyice started towntelling a bit.
Creature replaced in and started along the lines you'd expect, thought bbt/GI looked townish so looked at victor. But similar to me he came away town there too and ended up meh about it and looking at other people.
The list progression is pretty classic creature and 1604 is him in a nutshell from what I've experienced. You have to consider too why he'd do that maria questioning rather than what most people have been doing, it doesn't really read like buddying to me, and it's pretty much what I did my last game with her. And the hard defending thing he I thought about and just see him bring it up independently.
His reaction to specific things too. I start doubting someone, I read they then have a very good post, and then there's creature with "oh nice, guess they're town after all" and it's uncanny.

In general too he's more interested in clearing people than anything else which is a pro-town approach by nature. Though he was a little quick on the judgement today.

[Raskolnikov]

BV's the other mirroring, I can tell he's doing real association work only because I do it myself and know the approach, even if he doesn't come away with the same conclusions all the time (and at some points seems to go a bit too far and get lost in the rabbit hole). But you can always see how he can get there, it's not BSing or not forcing what's there to fit a narrative it doesn't at all.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: GM
Going back to this atm.

I can't clear hoopla but she's picked up her play bigtime today.

[Raskolnikov]

Cloud should show up too and claim to progress the game.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't doubt my clears, but I will have to revisit my associations as I think I've ruled out too many.

[Raskolnikov]

Because Maria is obvTown and I didn't like the way it looked like Rask was trying to make it a thing.

Was the context not clear?

--

damn, rask, back at it again with the confbias!

Pushing someone you townread is worse than pushing you?

[Raskolnikov]

No, this doesn't work.

The only circumstances in which it would work is if you thought maria was so obvtown that anyone should see it, which isn't the case here as only hoopla seems to have come away with the same read there.
If only really you have an obvtown read on someone it doesn't make sense to vote someone just for not having that same read.

Unless you have a problem with the way in which it was done, but as far as you described it its entirely just suggesting it and nothing about how.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't really agree with your reasoning for eliminating him but also don't wish to continue this any further. I will say if he is such a concrete read, why am I just hearing about it now after probing for reasons, because I've never felt like you've expressed how town you view him. You seem to be under the impression that Creature is an obvious hivemind townread that didn't require much explanation or convincing of others, and I haven't seen you volunteering to dissuade those pushing the Creature wagon today, which I'd expect if this read is genuine. He is one of the most realistic alternate candidates, so why no chime in 'bout that?

I don't defend people if it's not necessary. You're asking me about my read right now; creature wagon has never been an actual thing.
Not to mention the people pushing creature are GM, who's probably scum anyways and maria (lol), whereas most others just have him as a not-clear/not-sure.

[Raskolnikov]

I think that when ure about to get lynched you can have better reads when universially townread or outside wagons

Let's see this then.
You've had a few days now to make yourself useful and haven't. Beyond backtracking a bit on me and refusing to claim you haven't actually done anything after promising to.

[Raskolnikov]

Okay, if Cloud is town and so I am, who's scum?

UNVOTE:

BV where do you stand right now?

Calling aronajaackvoid council.

Who we lynch if not Cloud?

But what do you think?

[Raskolnikov]

Coming to a compromise is one thing, but you being a lynch option doesn't mean you can't have an opinion.

[Raskolnikov]

Cloud being PR actually fits my earlier theory about why PR wasn't counterpushing sotty, incidentally.

[Raskolnikov]

How well does goodmorning/MariaR fit in as a team?

That has the hard-defending wifom thing about it, which doesn't rule it out but is meh.

TBH I am having trouble with associations and especially who'd be with GM, and it's been bothering me a bit. But fuck it.

[Raskolnikov]

Hoopla's one of those annoying slots you can never clear but is too useful to lynch on paranoia :/

[Raskolnikov]

Actually, it might be worth throwing out associations altogether.

[Raskolnikov]

Right, so here's what I'd do at this point.
Cloud hasn't claimed but isn't doing much either. Unless he delivers on his promise soon I would just force out the hardclaim. Shouldn't lynch in any case with massclaim tomorrow though.

Ideal lynch for me is obviously GM. After that I could go back to hoopla (despite what I said) or maria but I'm not as confident in either of those.

[Raskolnikov]

>_>

[Raskolnikov]

Votecount 2.07

Hoopla (4)

goodmorning , I Am Innocent , Creature , BlackVoid L-2 ,

Jaack (3)

Raskolnikov , MariaR , Hoopla ,

Jaack (4)

Raskolnikov , MariaR , CloudKicker , Hoopla L-2 ,

Creature (2)

VictorDeAngelo , Sotty7 ,

Sotty7 (1)

Jaack ,

Not Voting (1)

CloudKicker ,

Day two deadline is Friday November 18, 1 PM PST. (expired on 2016-11-18 13:00:00)

VictorDeAngelo, goodmorning, Jaack, I Am Innocent have been prodded.

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch!

[/size]

I had Hoopia as a null town but given the way the wagons are turning out and 2 of the people I can see myself lynching black and Creature it makes me feel like that jumped on the wagon to save their scum buddy jack It's not really Hoopia's actions themselves that makes me tr them I would have to look in detail more

The flip hasn't changed your reads at all?

[Raskolnikov]

Well, when you have BV/creature scum for CWing jaack and BV pushing mislynch onto sotty, and then sotty flips and then have BV scum as bussing sotty and creature for other stuff it's like eh.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm not sure why Rask voted here instead of trying to convince MariaR to join the Sotty7 wagon though.

convince MariaR

Lol

[Raskolnikov]

Well let's see. you, me, I think

maria

and twoface

are town too and know me, could probably vote with as well

, that's like 4 votes

It did seem like you thought MariaR was someone you could work with so I don't know how that suddenly changed to "convince MariaR? Lol."

vote someone with maria to cw a wagon she dislikes =X= change/convince maria in any way

[Raskolnikov]

BV's logic doesn't make SENSE
he was okay with pushing socty regardless of the tracker claim yeah?
So question why the unvote and "okay" from Cloud when cloud does even worse and just claims pr

Answer: Bv pushed on his partner for towncred and unvoted cloud because cloud is town.

Why does this apply more to BV than anyone else on the wagon, or especially Jaack?

[Raskolnikov]

That logic actually isn't bad, even if I don't agree with the conclusion.

[Raskolnikov]

Idk, I thought it was probably impatience at how nothing was happening there. I do think you shouldn't let people off that easy on principle, but if you revisited and don't scumread him as much I can see the incentive to switch.

My personal problem now is beyond the soft cloud actually hasn't given anything yet despite going on about how "being wagoned gives you clarity and great reads".

[Raskolnikov]

You get into weird territory here though like if you should really lynch someone for refusing to hardclaim/cooperate (like, partially policy stuff); if it's obvious it never happens then you never get the hardclaim either so there has to be some level of actual threat there. And even more abstractly if it's never done then the system actually breaks down and abusing it becomes standard.

[Raskolnikov]

Maria, if hypothetically you were wrong on BV or creature, who would you think is scum instead?

[Raskolnikov]

So, your partner's in there right?

[Raskolnikov]

Though it does make me a lil nervous you felt like qualifying that GM one tho.

[Raskolnikov]

FMpov if maria is scum it's probably with GM anyways. I know you guys don't have the same pov but I really would prefer goodmorning please.
The thing is this behaviour isn't particularly anything new for maria town so it feels more like a crapshoot.

[Raskolnikov]

FMpov if maria is scum it's probably with GM anyways. I know you guys don't have the same pov but I really would prefer goodmorning please.
The thing is this behaviour isn't particularly anything new for maria town so it feels more like a crapshoot.

If I could be sure it's MariaR and GoodMorning, I'd go with that. But I think there's an outside chance of you being scum which makes me hesitate and want to go for the read I'm more sure of. I guess I'll have to finish my ISO of you so I can sort you for good.

What are your other reads currently? Who are your surest townreads and what's your POE looking like?

You and jaack are clears with creature essentially clear.
Unsure on cloud with his latest post actually alright, although would judge him in massclaim anyways.
{GM, Hoopla, Maria} is what I'd accept today but I prefer GM to the others.
Cloud-Maria still something I rule out given their early play, although I'm worried now about making any association calls WRT to hoopla which I did have earlier.

Again, in the end this could just be done scorched earth style given the size of pool and number of clears so it probably doesn't actually matter but eh.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Cloud

[Raskolnikov]

Bringing creature into the lynchpool is extremely necessary if scum don't wish to get PoE'd scorched-earth style.

[Raskolnikov]

Is the hopelessness of the situation making you turn to wifom?

[Raskolnikov]

@GM, how did you forget about your Rask scumread from yesterday? The one you suddenly voted for when it looked like he could be lynched and now you are back to "Rask is conf-biasing."

She answered this, apparently it wasn't a scumread she just didn't like that I brought up the possibility of a maria lynch.

[Raskolnikov]

That was directed at GM as she started offering herself as tribute. Though maria did it too to be fair.

[Raskolnikov]

Maria, GM, back to this.

But to resond more specifically, I don't see why BV would have to bus sorry for towncred when he was the most consensus town player there was at the time. Sotty's lynch wasn't inevitable at the time so it's not like he had to move on it to mantain those townreads.

Why does BV as scum bus when already heavily townread? What does he gain from it?

[Raskolnikov]

Assuming that every scum plays the same is worse.

The only assumption I make about 100% of Scum players is that they're not morons.

[Raskolnikov]

I've heard a lot of doubt about him as town doubting the claim but nothing into the scum motivation. With tracker claim and only jaack voting that wagon would not have happened if not for BV, and he gained literally nothing.
Given you both push BV-creature too, that team overall doesn't benefit at all from BV doing this.

[Raskolnikov]

Like i said, not claiming yet, if clear wants a hardclaim he has to ask me directly,

This suggests he'll claim when arona asks, at least. Shouldn't be that long.

[Raskolnikov]

Directly for some reason as opposed to indirectly.

[Raskolnikov]

As much as I love my policies, he did say he'd claim when arona requests it which should be in a few hours. Can wait until then at least.

[Raskolnikov]

Even if town you have to get the claim out. Softs only stand in d1 or specific setups like matrix6.

If you have a softclaim that already makes someone a potential target and it's generally likely scum figure out said role anyways and act appropriately.
The difference with the fullclaim is you at least get the information/actions out, potentially clears onto people, whereas all that is lost forever if for some reason he is killed after softing.

If scum the softing allows full flexibility with claim next day after a ton of time potentially preparing and theorycrafting.
If town the worst case scenario is what? Cloud gets killed? That's actually still way preferable to for example mason dying in this situation, and it's arguable how much soft vs hard influences that anyways.

[Raskolnikov]

But cloud if you genuinely softed your role like you said than scum probably already know it.

[Raskolnikov]

which makes no sens since you asked me to get hammered a bunch of time, either way its pretty inconsistent with your earlier reads

White knighting here does make sense, although I think it's more that hoopla out of all people should know better.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't really see the difference between dying protecting mason or just dying as a target tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: goodmorning

[Raskolnikov]

If your claim makes sense with the setup it's believable in-of-itself though. Someone would have to cc you to fill that space otherwise.

[Raskolnikov]

Cloud I guarantee you that if there's RB they would go for softclaiming PR over mason anyways and hardclaiming wouldn't change that.

[Raskolnikov]

What do you mean by softclaiming pr over mason ?

I'm saying if there's RB then softing PR already gets you RB'd 99% and hardclaiming doesn't change that.

[Raskolnikov]

Going into why leaving things at softclaims is terrible past d1 would be going into theory but the gist of it is
1. Claim reliability/trustworthyness vs flexibility for faking. Town vs scum benefit. If town claim PR they are already a massive RB/kill target whether they soft or hard, the difference here is generally not huge barring things like BP or PGO(rare). Scum OTOH have huge benefit from waiting for a fake another day especially with extra theorycrafting/planning and if they have an info from their own information-gathering role to supplement.
2. Scum have more setup deductive powers than town (given they know their own power) and can guess fairly reliably from a soft whereas town are in the dark and focus on other things. Leveling-the-playing field principle which is along the same lines as what makes massclaim powerful.
3. If you're town and your role had any information (I don't know what level of competency you have and can't trust your decision making) it would all have been lost on death. I can't trust that for example you don't have potentially crucial information but because you think softing would prevent you from being killed, you refuse to hard then get killed and that information is permanently gone. This is irrelevant with the specific claim now but it wasn't until now.

[Raskolnikov]

As far as setup is concerned this claim does make perfect sense here.

[Raskolnikov]

Despite everything I said, one of GM or Maria with hoopla is looking a little more reasonable than GM+Maria acting in the exact same fashion this past while as team >_>

[Raskolnikov]

@Cloud

Maria, GM, back to this.

But to resond more specifically, I don't see why BV would have to bus sorry for towncred when he was the most consensus town player there was at the time. Sotty's lynch wasn't inevitable at the time so it's not like he had to move on it to mantain those townreads.

Why does BV as scum bus when already heavily townread? What does he gain from it?

[Raskolnikov]

I hard townread him earlier though for the work he was doing theorycrafting d1/d2 and in general he's put by far the most into figuring the game out. I can personally tell his work isn't BSing/agenda-driven even if I disagreed with the conclusions sometimes because you can follow the methodology and judge for yourself if it's reasonable (and it generally is).

[Raskolnikov]

Cloud, I can tell you as a fact sotty wouldn't have been lynched if BV didn't join jaack there. It would have been gm, hoopla, maybe creature me maria.
And it doesn't look bad in any way for scum-bv to not lynch tracker claim there either, in fact that's the usual standard expected play.

[Raskolnikov]

It doesn't make sense to me though. If your partner isn't being lynched why lynch him for towncred when you're already townread.

The positions on that wagon that would be reasonable are more my own slot and hoopla's. If there is scum bussing it was hoopla.

Except I still don't see an all town wagon with gm-maria as explicitly impossible as she said, not if Jaack, BV and me are were on it already. Maria if scum I don't think would 180 and hop on, GM doesn't bus in general. In general assumptions like "there is always 1 scum on scum wagon" are just faulty from my experiences so far and I don't think claim necessarily changes that.

[Raskolnikov]

I also don't know that BV-scum would hardpush you to your face like this and power-lead mislynch wagon onto someone scumreading him encouraging hammer with no fucks given.

[Raskolnikov]

. . .

[Raskolnikov]

Hoopla and MariaR don't make sense as a team either.

I think I said it before, but I backtracked on that and a few others I didn't feel confident ruling out

[Raskolnikov]

Creature isn't scum. It doesn't look like cloud is either tbh.
Assuming that you could just lynch all of {GM, Me, Hoopla, Maria} with no problem.

I'm personally invested into seeing GM flip red but tbh this game is a lock unless people bring others into the lynchpool.

[Raskolnikov]

GM hoopla is particularly interesting given GM wanted that wagon to grow but hopped off to switch to creature when it became a thing, and unlike most gm votes that was actually a viable wagon at the time and he pushed it somewhat.
Maria had a more standard view considering she pushed jaack anyways and jaack was the other wagon to hoopla, which doesn't suggest against anything but is okay.

Given GM's actions there are actually weird in any case (associations or not, aligned or not) independently I'd prefer her dead anyways.

[Raskolnikov]

In short BV despite what I've commented on I don't hard-rule out any combination in {GM, Maria, Hoopla}.
I prefer GM by far for the individual problems, if not that I'd take maria over hoopla if only because there's potential less downside.

If god forbid I am wrong on GM and it's maria-hoopla you could even return lynch me and still lynch that team in lylo.

[Raskolnikov]

MariaR/me scumteam would mean I was flipflopping on my scumbuddy.

Yeah don't think maria-creature is a thing either.

[Raskolnikov]

Raskol, I've seen you weighing up the validity of a variety of different scumteams today, but you've not mentioned Creature at all, which I don't get. What did he do that was town enough to exclude him from your PoE?

This is the creature I know, and barring GM he's been pretty much the same as me as far as game approach.

And "Waffling with maria", despite how it sounds, makes a lot of sense from anyone whose played with maria more than once.

[Raskolnikov]

Do you not see the problem with disliking my push for no smoking gun and then wanting to lynch me on mostly "there's never a point where I feel that him and Sotty7 are definitely not partners"?

[Raskolnikov]

I'm not going into my own associatives or why you think I'm scum because you can't technically "disprove" anything.

But what can't you believe about my pov this game? I literally put hours and hours to try to push GM, it went nowhere and I was literally the only person left voting, and then I finally said okay to compromise on something. Even after that I still tried to make my case known and argue over it to no avail, and you're making it out as though when I finally did vote with consensus it was baseless.
At that point I would have lynched anyone in my not-clear pool (I said as much) and you're making it out as though I chose sotty specifically as part of a plan to look good.

[Raskolnikov]

You don't stick with your GM vote when Sotty7 was being wagoned even though you seemed so, so sure GM was scum.

There was not one vote left and multiple people came out hard defending, go back and read the room; nothing was happening. If anything people who were nullish read and then came out stronger against my case than before...

[Raskolnikov]

You're into the scum motivation and theory but don't look at the alternatives.

Would you expected me to stay on a vanity wagon on GM all day?

How about when the day was dragging on, people still didn't want GM, and I said I'll lynch any of my nulls if nothing else? I'm not going to then not join a wagon on anyone there especially if they can easily be partners.

I don't know what your basis of comparison is for a lot of these judgements tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

Obligatory wifom as well: I'm good enough a player to either bus or defend a partner, and to know you pick one option and perform it well. I'm not the type who would waffle around ineffectually getting a partner lynched and gain nothing from it.
Ironically an actual bad association for me is one that's unnaturally clean in one direction and kind of artificial-looking.

[Raskolnikov]

Hey maria!

Why does scum-BV risk antagonising me right after you/gm and sort-of-cloud push him?
What benefit does that give over just lynching GM if gm was actually town?

[Raskolnikov]

You showed up so now you have to comment!

[Raskolnikov]

Did you actually read it?

[Raskolnikov]

Do you still think maria's town cloud?

[Raskolnikov]

I want GM or her at this point.

[Raskolnikov]

Scum is in {GM, you, hoopla} but if hoopla is the town then mislynching her is catastrophic with a town this divided.

[Raskolnikov]

The problem is even if you're town your reads are so different to mine your continued existence furthers scum agenda. More confident GM is just straight up scum but it'd also apply there.

Go back and read if you want my creature read.

[Raskolnikov]

Scum is in {GM, you, hoopla} but if hoopla is the town then mislynching her is catastrophic with a town this divided.

Although I'm not 100% on cloud yet it's not a risk worth worrying about atm.

[Raskolnikov]

*facedesk* That's blatantly not true but alright.

If you have a good argument or explanation for why everything I said on BV and creature is wrong I can hear it out.
But even if I could trust you I'm not going to take you at face value given you scumread mason and hard townread sotty.

[Raskolnikov]

people make mistakes in this game not everyone is perfect
I'm saying you shouldn't sr me for my reads alone if you sr my reasoning for the reads THAT I understand

That's not why I sr you, it's why you just saying I'm wrong isn't going to do anything.

[Raskolnikov]

If you want to convince me I'm wrong about any of my reads you have to explain why.

[Raskolnikov]

Well, when people asked you about your scumreads it sounded like you had no idea what you were talking about or worse like you never actually thought of it to that level of depth before.
And when I raised points on BV your answers were like "uhm idk I guess it could happen" and not really convincing. Things like "scum bussed sotty so they could lynch me next" is a stretch on it's own, but I didn't notice you mention that before I asked so idk if you just came up with it for that specific answer.

[Raskolnikov]

Well, I think you're full of it, and don't have a franky meta. I have a hard time believing you find obvi scum in franky in his 11 posts in 3 pages. Looks to me like a setup to eventually counter claim if things got rough for you.

EVERY single other person has at least a lean of a read, and yet all you have for me is "Uncc'd pr". The only explanation for this is you're leaving a counter claim open. Sneaky devil. I'll be voting you tomorrow if I'm not dead. Which I think it's 50/50 depending on if you want to wifom town into thinking I'm scum or not.

If I was going to CC you I'd have done it already; I don't believe in letting PRs sit unchallenged if I can challenge them.

I think I've made it clear what read I'd currently have on you if you weren't an unCC'd PR, but you are one, so I don't need it. I'm not actually going to waste any more time on this.

also the way she just dismissed all my posts about the cy slot by saying that they are tiring her is shit

That's not a thing I've said about a predecessor's posts here or ever!

I did say that your entire ISO was tiring me, because it was! Trying to parse anything alignment-indicative in all that was giving me a major headache.

Gm: when a player say either X or y could a an sk, I have to ask why doesn't he think they are scum together?

I don't think that's actually what he meant but you do kinda have a point?

@Jiffy p39 Shinobi case: I'm actually... kind of OK with that? But I'm also pretty OK with Shinobi's defense so... idk.

--

Guys my internet is bad and you post too much stop making this hard ffs

--

@Bins: idgi but ok

@p42 generally: oh hey shinobi is actually town even though the thing about bins doesn't actually make sense

re lane 1048: shinobi is right, too dumb to be scum 100%

--

guys why is shinobi the top wagon, give me a break here

You just said you're kind of ok with the Shinobi case then questioned the wagon are you kidding me

You just said you're kind of ok with the Shinobi case then questioned the wagon are you kidding me

that was on like page 39 jiffy

on page 42 i decided shinobi was town

get with the program

p-edit: guys srsly

alpaca wagon come on

What differences are you seeing creature?

[Raskolnikov]

She replaced into that game around mid-late d1, made a catchup, fluffed around the wagon similar to here d1 and was insta lynched on start of d2.
The game wasn't divided into 2 main camps and she didn't even get that far in so it's not really even comparable (and even then what do you make of that point? she didn't say apples/oranges in that game so it's a towntell?).

[Raskolnikov]

Starting to get impatient again.

[Raskolnikov]

Lynch in {GM, Maria, Hoopla, Me}.

It IS possible to lynch EVERY single slot in this if the clears hold. The game is already won if you just don't fuck this up. The PROBLEM is things as a matter of course tend to veer off completely and I know people will start lynching creature bv cloud and literally anything the moment I go down because that happens EVERY single time.

Lynching GM or Maria is IMPORTANT because they're either scum or a town in the scumpool that literally thinks bv/creature is the scumteam and should 100% DIE anyways then.

[Raskolnikov]

Meh... I don't really like any of the lynches being discussed.

I'd rather not lynch rask or gm. I think that BV points on rask might have merit but at the same time rask looks rather town to me and has for most of the game.

I've stated why I don't really want to lynch GM. I might be willing to compromise at deadline if there are no other options, but again, rather not.

BlackVoid is town and I'm not lynching that.

I could lynch any of the other candidates reasonably willingly but I'm going to need to be convinced.

If not GM, who would you lynch out of maria/hoopla?

[Raskolnikov]

What happened to your creature read? Did you seriously go from clearing him to doubting him entirely on an associative basis with me?

[Raskolnikov]

How long were you preparing that post hoopla?

[Raskolnikov]

Crux of the argument against me: I expected sotty to flip scum.

I DID think sotty would flip scum. That's why I wagoned him the first time, wagoned him the second time, and then went on to wagon him the third time following Jaack. If he claimed VT that was a lynch straight up the second time, but literally the only time I've seen a pr-claim not given respect and some benefit of the doubt is when I mislynched joat d1 and fucked things up. But when jaack did that it was fine, even in the 10% its wrong I wasn't going to at least feel dumb since I wasn't getting MY first choice anyways. Not to mention she was pushing me anyways and had probably the worst reads in the game even if she was town to boot. The thing is you expect me to have given a fuck when I had no reason to. I don't deny any of this.

If you are in MY scumpool, lurkish, AND have super useless reads or are pushing for my own lynch that makes you worthless and I will lynch you without a second thought.

[Raskolnikov]

You have to keep in mind I have no reason whatsoever to doubt my reads thus far. Called d1 probably being tvt; no one wanted to divert. Still super confident on GM flipping red here, flipped sotty yesterday and hey coincidentally there's an association there. Yeah I wavered on jaack and especially cloud despite how I feel now but quickly got it when it wasn't making as much sense.

If you contest my reads you have to contest one of my clears. No one has contested BV or jaack to any convincing degree. Cloud is pretty untouchable barring one of my other clears CCing though he probably dies tonight anyways. Creature is a meta read and I'm physically incapable of making anyone without the same experience share that but I haven't heard anything even half convincing as to why he's scum.

[Raskolnikov]

BV triggers me because the bulk of his read is on theorycrafting and speculation I can't disprove or even engage with and he sets up actions as bad or scum-motivated without putting much thought into the alternative or counterpoint in each specific instance.

[Raskolnikov]

Everyone left...

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah, but unless you think creature's scum and I'm scum you should probably trust me on it.

[Raskolnikov]

Well you CAN still argue against it if you make a convincing case for why creature's scum. But I haven't heard a solid argument beyond "eeeh inactivity ehh [something stylistic]".

[Raskolnikov]

I mean I doubt anyone would change my mind but that's just because I doubt I'm wrong about him. It's very unlikely I'm wrong when I think I've played the most with creature out of anyone here.

[Raskolnikov]

Hoopla if you think creature is scum, who do you think is his partner?

[Raskolnikov]

Not because I actually care, but if you have creature as being with either gm or maria you can't then refuse to lynch either of them.

[Raskolnikov]

Forget the team stuff for a moment.
Do you really as an individual read scumread creature over either of goodmorning or maria?

[Raskolnikov]

Well you should lynch goodmorning with me then. If your reads are creature > gm > me I don't understand your vote at all.

[Raskolnikov]

Even creature though. Creature-maria is straight up out.
Creature-gm isn't really a concern when I'm pushing gm anyways.
Creature-you? Ehhhh. He was kind of your counterwagon d2 (which both GM and I think later maria joined).

Individually too, I think I'd go back to doubting cloud before creature tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

I mean, you are right that if you're town, this opinion about Creature should hold more weight, but then it means (from my perspective) that goodmorning and Maria are both scum, with neither or them bothering to distance/bus Sotty when she was going down. I feel like both being scum and hard-defending/trying to counterwagon while Sotty is being lynched seems like a strange position for them to both take.

The only person who would've been on a clear bus or distancing position on that wagon is you.

But that analysis isn't looking that far into it;
Maria if scum was committed to hard defending at that point and making a 180 to distance or bus would probably have been awkward.
GM herself admitted she doesn't bus and I don't get the impression is a particularly good scum player anyways so cwing like that (not hard defending, just voting elsewhere and not saying much) doesn't clear her in that wifom sort of way.

[Raskolnikov]

I mean it's kind of time to start wrapping the day up at this point.

[Raskolnikov]

Jaack if not GM, what do you prefer out of maria/hoopla?

You and arona should ideally take some leadership at this point tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

Maria please please vote gm with me then if your town. I 100% guarantee you it flips red. BV's not being lynched today and neither creature. Remember our last game where you mislynched my best townread in the game jakefsf d1 please >_>

[Raskolnikov]

As I relearn every game, being a dick isn't scum indicative. If anything a trend to the opposite...

[Raskolnikov]

It's not "ehhh" GM hoopla is LITERALLY the case if you're the town in that trifecta.

[Raskolnikov]

@Maria
I'm not going to doubt myself if the only alternate views are either pushing BV/creature team or myself directly.
The closest thing to a legitimate alternate viewpoint this game is from jaack about cloud but I still don't think it's worth considering atm.

Everyone who I've found has a reasonable stance happens to also be wishy washy as fuck and do pretty much nothing.

[Raskolnikov]

Maria if you're town, I'm town, AND gm is town why has it been so ridiculously hard to push or wagon her this game?

[Raskolnikov]

when in rome

[Raskolnikov]

Okay I don't have the energy for this anymore.

[Raskolnikov]

The problem with selfvoting is it would give people counter-ammunition when I proceed to full-nuclear lash them out postgame

[Raskolnikov]

You can lose the game, but you can't afford to lose the moral high ground.

[Raskolnikov]

Maria's actually felt town in this recent conversation

Despite not seeming to have the foresight that not voting gm 100% gets me or possibly her lynched in this gamestate

+++ GM/hoopla
?? maria/gm maria/hoopla

1-2% Cloud/? if jaack is actually right about him
nothing else.

[Raskolnikov]

i know i did that but it was out of spite and town sucked dicks that game

goodmorning - pushes BV/creature which doesn't make sense
Hoopla - wishy washy, pushes ME (simultaneously scumreads gm and me?)
Jaack - wishy washy doesn't feel strongly
Creature - wishy washy as fuck
BlackVoid - pushes ME, confirmed wrong
aronagrundy - non-existant
CloudKicker - pushes ME, confirmed wrong
MariaR - pushes BV/creature which doesn't make sense
Raskolnikov - probably right about everything

[Raskolnikov]

That's actually part of a post I wrote earlier but decided against posting because hey you should work out differences! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Raskolnikov]

If you're actually scum though very well done.

[Raskolnikov]

I wonder what your main account is.

[Raskolnikov]

Without exception though, every time someone's made me legitimately annoyed they have flipped town.

[Raskolnikov]

Well apart from iraonvp that one game I guess.

[Raskolnikov]

Scum are always those friendly quiet guys sticking up for you when you do get totally shafted by the pillars of town
or if they do oppose you are so completely spineless and ineffectual about it you don't notice their little squeaking getting drowned out by everything else

[Raskolnikov]

little itty bitty mousies
SQUEAK SQUEAK SQUEAK
cowardice and spinelessness

It's all over GM it's all over hoopla it was sotty in a nutshell

maria has a good scumgame and doesn't act like that as either align and I can't read her for shit so respect that but I don't feel it.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Hoopla

[Raskolnikov]

BV's better at scum than the scum.

[Raskolnikov]

I clear people based off of interactions when they display knowledge that they have no idea who the scum are.

How to lynch competent players 101

[Raskolnikov]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=65286

Everyone fucked up early but at one point d2-3 scum mutually hard pushed each other.
I preferred lynching the scum I felt more confident on than the other one, but compromised on the other one in meh fashion for the d3 lynch as I saw them as possibly both scum anyways.
And I looked really bad as a partner in that case for that preference.

This guy MagnaOfIllusion just came in before that lynch and was CONSTANTLY pushing me on associations and scumteams for the rest of the game and it was annoying as fuck because it was all earlygame stuff I couldn't say a word to, and eventually the lynchpool d4/pre-lylo boiled down to me and another person I KNEW was town but I had to lynch them over myself because those were the only two options this guy even allowed. He had reasoning like "if it was a really good bus as you theorise then why weren't you convinced by it?" and "oh you defending yourself like this is the classic scum move when they're under pressure" and so on and we kept having arguments where after days and days it broke down and I basically called him ignorant and delusional and he told me to get bent, and literally replacements into the game are what saved me because they had different views and weren't around early. The worst part was scum wasn't even playing well they were actually completely terrible and obvious because it looked like an easy win.

Even I was having some trouble because none of the teams made sense with a third but I followed my individual reads and stuck true, and finally we got the lynch in lylo because he "would feel less bad losing to me-scum than lurkersac obvscummcgee" and didn't even really change his mind, and won right there as it turned out it was actually traitor third in the end (I know this is a HUGE taboo to ever mention or bring up for some reason but fuck it) and if I did a single conciliatory action or listened to anybody else that game was a loss. But in this case the only other viewpoint in the game that remotely makes sense is jaack's.

[Raskolnikov]

Meh, would scum!GM push a counterwagon to GI?

GM sat on that vote for most of the day and actually didn't push either GI or vic lategame if you recall (why would I keep reading the posts of my scumread it would just make me angry?)

[Raskolnikov]

*lateday

[Raskolnikov]

It was a stagnant vote until greyice himself started it again and then maria and me hopped on.

[Raskolnikov]

How do you play this entire time without reading d1 T_T

[Raskolnikov]

I don't see how being equally fine lynching me or goodmorning makes any sense when you think about it.

[Raskolnikov]

Where were you when I was trying to lynch goodmorning again?

[Raskolnikov]

Rask's best partner is probably goodmorning

I've been thinking about this all day so it's funny that you bring it up now. Her townreading Rask back after his case on her is really weird and she put the onus on me to explain why Rask's case on her was scummy. But from my read of D1, her interaction with Sotty7 looked very natural, she almost committed to voting Sotty7 over BBT (why even do that when she was already scumreading BBT anyways?) I didn't find anything suspect in her progression there, Victor was her top scumread so it doesn't bother me that she never moved off of the Victor wagon especially when GreyICE replaced in and started hard-pushing it. Rask did act like a GM scumflip would vindicate him though.

Jesus christ BV if you think I'm scum bussing GM then WHY NOT lynch her with me
I think at this point I could literally lynch the entire scumteam and you'd be calling me as 4th and say I bussed all of them >___>

[Raskolnikov]

Hey guys, I actually don't want to play in a game where creature get's mislynched and I have to deal with you all tomorrow.
Lynch GM hoopla or me.

[Raskolnikov]

If you dolts lynch creature I'm not saying a word tomorrow.

[Raskolnikov]

My flip should at least partially clear creature via my meta read.
Creature's flip doesn't accomplish ANYTHING.

[Raskolnikov]

Here's how the game plays out: creature get's mislynched and then I get mislynched and the game is over.

[Raskolnikov]

Rask I swear to god I will punch you in the face.
If Creature flips town I'm ready for a fire man squad lynch

Why can't you trust me after our last game?

[Raskolnikov]

Maria please go back to hoopla.
Cloud hammer hoopla.

[Raskolnikov]

Hoopla scumread GM and me equally and thinks that's the most probably team but prefers me over GM for whatever reason.
GM counterwagoned onto creature when hoopla got run up yesterday and did some of the only casing/pushing she did in the entire game there.
Hoopla is saying she's willing to lynch GM and compromise on me a few minutes ago before starting onto creature instead.

PLEASE just see this somehow

[Raskolnikov]

Maria PLEASE put hoopla back to l-1

[Raskolnikov]

Cloud please hammer hoopla for me.