Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Raskolnikov]

Starting to get impatient again.

[BlackVoid]

How boring do you think BlackVoid has been this game?

Too much. I think he should change his username to BoringVoid.

[Creature]

Starting to get impatient again.

I was also and still am impatient, I'm just not stating it.

[BlackVoid]

Impatient with what?

[Creature]

I can't even form {aronagrundy, BlackVoid, CloudKicker, Jaack} townblock again.

[Creature]

I think MariaR is least likely to flip town.

[BlackVoid]

I can't even form {aronagrundy, BlackVoid, CloudKicker, Jaack} townblock again.

What do you think of joining me on Rask?

[Creature]

You mean adding you and Rask to the townblock?

[BlackVoid]

No, I mean joining me on the Rask wagon.

[BlackVoid]

I'll lynch MariaR with you tomorrow if he winds up flipping town.

[Creature]

Let me see

[Raskolnikov]

Lynch in {GM, Maria, Hoopla, Me}.

It IS possible to lynch EVERY single slot in this if the clears hold. The game is already won if you just don't fuck this up. The PROBLEM is things as a matter of course tend to veer off completely and I know people will start lynching creature bv cloud and literally anything the moment I go down because that happens EVERY single time.

Lynching GM or Maria is IMPORTANT because they're either scum or a town in the scumpool that literally thinks bv/creature is the scumteam and should 100% DIE anyways then.

[Creature]

You currently have the scum team as Rask/Maria, right?

[Raskolnikov]

Meh... I don't really like any of the lynches being discussed.

I'd rather not lynch rask or gm. I think that BV points on rask might have merit but at the same time rask looks rather town to me and has for most of the game.

I've stated why I don't really want to lynch GM. I might be willing to compromise at deadline if there are no other options, but again, rather not.

BlackVoid is town and I'm not lynching that.

I could lynch any of the other candidates reasonably willingly but I'm going to need to be convinced.

If not GM, who would you lynch out of maria/hoopla?

[Creature]

that literally thinks bv/creature is the scumteam

Right, they like chanting doubt spells on us.

[BlackVoid]

You currently have the scum team as Rask/Maria, right?

Here's the current Matrix I'm working with. Since the last one, I crossed out a couple. MariaR are Rask don't seem likely - too much genuine interaction all the way from the beginning of the game until now. Lots of wagon jumping together, verbal sparring with each other. It doesn't look fake to me at all.

Hoopla and GM don't seem likely for GM's vote and hop off of Hoopla wagon on D2. Voting your partner, letting a wagon form and going "whoops, I'm indifferent to the wagon, let me unvote and fiddle around doing nothing" is not scumpartner interaction.

Player	Rask	MariaR	GM	Creature	Hoopla
Rask	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
MariaR	Unlikely	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
GM	Eliminate	Probable	N/A	N/A	N/A
Creature	Probable	Probable	Eliminate	N/A	N/A
Hoops	Probable	Unlikely	Unlikely	Eliminate	N/A

Four probable teams. I don't think it's any of the ones I eliminated. It could be one of the teams I found unlikely but someone will need to put a convincing case to change my mind on why.

[Raskolnikov]

What happened to your creature read? Did you seriously go from clearing him to doubting him entirely on an associative basis with me?

[Hoopla]

Whoever is scum is playing very well in my opinion. It's getting to the point where most of the players have made a lot of convincing posts, or situations have transpired where I'm questioning why they'd do that as scum. It's hard to really know what is meaningful information right now.

Thinking about it more, I am starting to get concerned that the only support I can get for Creature seems to be from fellow Apples, as they may just be doing that for survivalist reasons as scum. The Cloud claim fiasco notwithstanding, BlackVoid has still been the most reasonable player in the game, and his recent posts about Rask have summarised a feeling about him I've also had for a while, where Rask's actions seem to have knowledge that Sotty is scum and he is making sure he is preemptively positioning himself well in his actions/stances/attacks in case she flips.

I think townies occasionally will accidentally find themselves in incriminating interactions with scum who end up flipping (it's hard to not when you don't know who is scum), but you can exonerate them based on the thought that they probably didn't know that player would ultimately flip scum. I think the lack of these situations from Rask paints a picture of a well calculated and if I'm honest, brilliant exhibition of positional scumplay, but like BV says, there is an undertone of implicit knowledge that Sotty is scum.

This isn't in slamdunk territory for me, but I find it more believable that Rask got himself into pretty good positions as scum over say, goodmorning getting herself into pretty bad looking positions upon a Sotty flip. I think she is savvy enough to avoid those as scum, and I think Rask is good enough to be scum here.

I'm going to support this vote with BV since we're nearing my favourite time of day: compromise time!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Raskolnikov

[Raskolnikov]

How long were you preparing that post hoopla?

[BlackVoid]

What happened to your creature read? Did you seriously go from clearing him to doubting him entirely on an associative basis with me?

No, it's because he doesn't seem very engaged with the game. He has slowly become less active, offered less contributions, less strong reads, pushes and opinions. I see it as a scum trend in general. I'm not saying he's scum for sure but he's no longer a strong townread.

[Creature]

She probably was waiting BlackVoid post as planned.

[Creature]

What happened to your creature read? Did you seriously go from clearing him to doubting him entirely on an associative basis with me?

No, it's because he doesn't seem very engaged with the game. He has slowly become less active, offered less contributions, less strong reads, pushes and opinions. I see it as a scum trend in general. I'm not saying he's scum for sure but he's no longer a strong townread.

Could also be loss of motivation (specially when town can't come in an agreement).

[Hoopla]

How long were you preparing that post hoopla?

Probably took 15-20 minutes? Dunno.

Why's that?

[Creature]

According to you, the most probable teams are:
Rask and Hoopla
Rask and me
MariaR and goodmorning
MariaR and me

[Creature]

I find MariaR/GM most likely.