Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Creature]

I am thinking it's GM/MariaR, but I'm not feeling sure on Rask and Hoopla being town.

[Raskolnikov]

GM hoopla is particularly interesting given GM wanted that wagon to grow but hopped off to switch to creature when it became a thing, and unlike most gm votes that was actually a viable wagon at the time and he pushed it somewhat.
Maria had a more standard view considering she pushed jaack anyways and jaack was the other wagon to hoopla, which doesn't suggest against anything but is okay.

Given GM's actions there are actually weird in any case (associations or not, aligned or not) independently I'd prefer her dead anyways.

[Creature]

I'm up for a GM wagon.

[Raskolnikov]

In short BV despite what I've commented on I don't hard-rule out any combination in {GM, Maria, Hoopla}.
I prefer GM by far for the individual problems, if not that I'd take maria over hoopla if only because there's potential less downside.

If god forbid I am wrong on GM and it's maria-hoopla you could even return lynch me and still lynch that team in lylo.

[Raskolnikov]

MariaR/me scumteam would mean I was flipflopping on my scumbuddy.

Yeah don't think maria-creature is a thing either.

[Raskolnikov]

Raskol, I've seen you weighing up the validity of a variety of different scumteams today, but you've not mentioned Creature at all, which I don't get. What did he do that was town enough to exclude him from your PoE?

This is the creature I know, and barring GM he's been pretty much the same as me as far as game approach.

And "Waffling with maria", despite how it sounds, makes a lot of sense from anyone whose played with maria more than once.

[Hoopla]

Eh, I feel like I'm starting to prefer goodmorning over Rask as my second choice (if we can't lynch Creature) just by the way he is using PoE.

I think I might have to move to my own fruit team. Mangos are in season atm, right?

[Creature]

Need VC.

[Creature]

{GM, Maria, Hoopla}.

Okay, if I were viewing from your PoV, I'd feel better about Hoopla.

[Creature]

Hoopla's been town lately, but not even close to strong town.

[goodmorning]

bv is 100000000% scum

but as i said

I volunteer as tribute?

I'm really interested to see who changes their reads after I flip Town (Rask, probably) and who doesn't (Creature, probably).

[BlackVoid]

Hey GM:

it's a great chance to talk to someone you think is scummy in real time.

I have some time now so if you are town here, feel free.

[goodmorning]

I don't have time now, I have to make pie.

[CloudKicker]

I dont like the gm wagon when both my srs kind of want him and i doubt im wrong on both. Rask could easily be the voice of reason scum and she outed several posts last page about her getting lynched, sounds just like textbook scumwifom to me

[goodmorning]

I mean, I'm fine being lynched if it'll turn some oranges apple-y.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so try as I might I'm just not seeing GM as scum. The wagon has given me the reactions I needed so that's good. Apart from the stuff I mentioned about her back and forth with Sotty7 on D1, there's also the really early interactions where she says something is off with BBT and Sotty7 immediately agrees with her and pushes him. I hate that she cast around for counterwagons at the last minute during Sotty7's lynch but I just don't get the feeling that she already knew Sotty7's alignment.

I'm leaning more towards Rask. Here's my problem with Rask: reading him in ISO, there's never a point where I feel that him and Sotty7 are definitely not partners. He suspects Sotty7 early, cuts through her BBT scumread and votes her. Then he colors a wagon with Sotty7 as his strongest scumread but leaves open room for her being partnered with GreyICE. Then quickly moves over to Victor even though Victor was apparently a townread (a "fringe townread" but a townread nevertheless). The funny thing is, he does everything he can to work with GreyICE to push a counterwagon despite throwing around Sotty7/GreyICE team possibilities. I think he wanted towncred for being against the GreyICE wagon while at the same time leaving him lynchable if Sotty7 flipped. I'll add that Hoopla is right that him saying she wasn't doing anything to "pressure" Sotty7 may indicate a partner tell.

Then D2, he spends most of his time pushing GM. Some of his points are accurate - GM did in fact do nothing when GreyICE was getting lynched and she posts in a way that can be difficult to parse and understand at times. But there's no smoking gun, and no passion in this push. He is quick to switch over to Sotty7 when the counterwagon picks up. If he was so sure GM was scum, I think he'd be resisting the Sotty7 counterwagon but it feels almost like he knows she's scum and is being very, very careful not to look bad from a Sotty7 flip. There was one small place where he said he assumed Sotty7 was a mason that I thought looked like a not-partner tell but I don't think it's beyond him to fake. Hopping onto Sotty7 late D2 with "oh, yeah GM could be a partner" just mirrors his D1 where he pushes Sotty7 as a potential BBT/GreyICE partner.

The final straw for me that sealed it was that a lot of his points are regurgitated from others. For example, Victor was the one who brought up the fact that he was doing more than BBT so GM shouldn't suspect him. He also complained about GM not reading his posts. Rask brings up both these points in his GM push. This is more of a general trend in Rask's posting. There were times when I really liked his posting but many points he brings up are unoriginal and when I read the thread, I realize someone else had made that argument before (one example I'll give is that he came up with a paranoid theory that BBT and Sotty7 were together

after

I suggested that they could be scum vs scum counterwagons). I've tried to see his POV but I just can't get behind his reads. GM does all the wrong things like voting Rask when scum was about to be lynched but she just

doesn't fit

as a Sotty7 partner in the same way Rask does.

VOTE: Raskolnikov

[Raskolnikov]

Do you not see the problem with disliking my push for no smoking gun and then wanting to lynch me on mostly "there's never a point where I feel that him and Sotty7 are definitely not partners"?

[BlackVoid]

I think it's more likely you're a Sotty7 partner than GM (or anyone else really). GM/Sotty7 interactions don't look like they are both scum. She does a lot of things that don't look good. She commits to joining the Sotty7 wagon but never comes around to it. She pushes BBT along with Sotty7 in tandem. She calls Sotty7 town all of a sudden just because the "wagon is bad." None of that makes sense from someone who knew that Sotty7 was scum.

You on the other hand - you looked like you played with the knowledge that Sotty7 was going to flip. You never do anything that might be perceived as bad in case she's scum. You don't stick with your GM vote when Sotty7 was being wagoned even though you seemed so, so sure GM was scum. You stay on the Hoopla wagon until I called her posts sincere and then you switch to Cloud. When it finally seemed as though Sotty7 was the one who would eat rope D2, you move gracefully onto her wagon. Out of my five options, you fit in best. GM doesn't. Creature, MariaR, and Hoopla are toss-ups.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm not going into my own associatives or why you think I'm scum because you can't technically "disprove" anything.

But what can't you believe about my pov this game? I literally put hours and hours to try to push GM, it went nowhere and I was literally the only person left voting, and then I finally said okay to compromise on something. Even after that I still tried to make my case known and argue over it to no avail, and you're making it out as though when I finally did vote with consensus it was baseless.
At that point I would have lynched anyone in my not-clear pool (I said as much) and you're making it out as though I chose sotty specifically as part of a plan to look good.

[Raskolnikov]

You don't stick with your GM vote when Sotty7 was being wagoned even though you seemed so, so sure GM was scum.

There was not one vote left and multiple people came out hard defending, go back and read the room; nothing was happening. If anything people who were nullish read and then came out stronger against my case than before...

[Raskolnikov]

You're into the scum motivation and theory but don't look at the alternatives.

Would you expected me to stay on a vanity wagon on GM all day?

How about when the day was dragging on, people still didn't want GM, and I said I'll lynch any of my nulls if nothing else? I'm not going to then not join a wagon on anyone there especially if they can easily be partners.

I don't know what your basis of comparison is for a lot of these judgements tbh.

[Raskolnikov]

Obligatory wifom as well: I'm good enough a player to either bus or defend a partner, and to know you pick one option and perform it well. I'm not the type who would waffle around ineffectually getting a partner lynched and gain nothing from it.
Ironically an actual bad association for me is one that's unnaturally clean in one direction and kind of artificial-looking.

[MariaR]

*grabs popcorn*

[Raskolnikov]

Hey maria!

Why does scum-BV risk antagonising me right after you/gm and sort-of-cloud push him?
What benefit does that give over just lynching GM if gm was actually town?

[Raskolnikov]

You showed up so now you have to comment!