Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Creature]

If the pool is {Black, me, GM, Hoopla, MariaR}, we need to agree on someone to remove.

[MariaR]

The reads are really divided because half sr people in there and half don't.

I think the matter is finding one scum in the pool and the partner should be quite easy to find after.

[Creature]

40% chance if we're not wrong.

[Creature]

idk, either we roll a dice or we hope scum didn't sway us to lynch all town members.

[MariaR]

I think a flip regardless will clear some things up

[MariaR]

I'ma give a re read and come back at the end of the day but I guess for now

Intent to put Hoopia at L-1

[BlackVoid]

MariaR committed to voting Hoopla so I guess I'm hoping GM votes Rask and puts him at L-1 too letting Arona decide. Either that or for Jaack to switch. I'll give it one last shot to try and summarize why I think Rask is scum.

A lot of the time, I clear people based off of interactions when they display knowledge that they have no idea who the scum are. For instance, incorrectly assuming that a scum is town or that a townie is scum. That's something I never see with Rask.

Take these two back-to-back posts for example:

I THINK I like sotty now

, although it really doesn't help that I saw her mentioned in the goat thread, and now that I check again its for scumplay no less.

PoE is actually starting to push BBT and IAI down at this point... GM still fishy but victor himself is one of my fringe townleans, and the whole exchange feels muddled. That said, probably not SonS.

Cloud was one of my better townreads but I don't know what the fuck he's doing now.

Don't feel like hoopla is pressuring sotty at all despite the vote.

In the first one, he stated a weakish townread on Sotty7. But then immediately he accuses Hoopla of not pressuring Sotty7. He doesn't outright say it but the implication is that he thinks Hoopla and Sotty7 are partners and that Hoopla is distancing from Sotty7 but not really pushing her. So, that post is made with an underlying assumption that Sotty7 is scum.

That's the core of my Rask suspicion summarized into a single paragraph. Throughout the game, he always works with the assumption that Sotty7 is scum. He never develops reads with the assumption that she's town even when he calls her town.

Also, voting a "fringe townread" Victor is really bad given the three posts below.

GreyICE (6)

-

Sotty7

,

Hoopla

,

MichelSableheart

,

BlackVoid

,

VictorDeAngelo

,

I Am Innocent

L-1,

Sotty7 (3)

-

Jaack

,

Raskolnikov

,

TwoFace

sotty/bbt theory still holds up though and especially against the why-no-cw logic

VOTE: Victor

GreyICE is a null read that could be partnered with his major scumread Sotty7 (which explains why no counterwagons), but he wants to go for a fringe townread anyways. Really feel like he's playing up to GreyICE there.

There's also this really weird interaction between Rask and Creature where Rask townreads Creature for reasons unknown and Creature just moves him out of the lynchpool and moves everyone else including me back in. Not to mention MichelSableheart voting the BBT counterwagon to Sotty7. If I have to take a guess, I'd probably go with Creature/Rask as our team. I'll try and see if there's anything at all that might contradict that view. Goodmorning, if you are town here and think Creature is scum, look at how the two of them subtly removed each other from their scumlists and vote Rask please.

[Creature]

I didn't remove Rask because he townreads me (in fact, I had Rask as townread before he whiteknight me and he went into my lynchpool after he was townreading me).

[Raskolnikov]

BV's better at scum than the scum.

[Raskolnikov]

I clear people based off of interactions when they display knowledge that they have no idea who the scum are.

How to lynch competent players 101

[BlackVoid]

Meh, if you are town, I basically blew it this entire day phase. You certainly haven't been playing "scummy" or badly. On the contrary, I thought you were being far more reasonable than most. But nothing else makes sense and the teams you are proposing make much less sense than you being scum. I'm still agonizing over this although you can't tell from the way I make pushes and I have D1 open in a separate tab looking for anything that might contradict you being scum.

I don't have a strong townread on Hoopla and it's possible that when she saw herself and Sotty7 both being pressured, they decided a one-way bus of the person who made a PR claim was their best shot. But there's still the way Sotty7 buddied her on D1 and Hoopla never buddied her back that makes me think it was Sotty7-scum and Hoopla-town. I also think that Sotty7 enlisting MariaR's help in pushing Jaack and using her Jaack push as a reason to townread her is something scum do to town. That's more likely than two scum just deciding to push Jaack and townreading each other for making the same push. That leaves us with GM. I'm still looking for any indication that might point her way and coming up short.

[Creature]

A better play would be: Let's not eliminate scumteams before we get a scumflip.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, but this is based off of Sotty7 interactions and she flipped.

[Creature]

Okay then, so far who doesn't make sense with Sotty?

[Creature]

Also, being counterwagon to scum doesn't apply.

[BlackVoid]

GM doesn't. MariaR might be going for a "why would I defend my partner" gambit but she did push Jaack and Sotty7 was having a major clash with him D1. After that push, Sotty7 townreads MariaR and tells me how amazing her Jaack push was. That looks like scum who found town to support their push. Hoopla is iffy but like I said Sotty7 was buddying her. Rask is the one who does make plenty of sense as a partner.

[Creature]

What about D1 interactions?

[BlackVoid]

Whose D1 interactions?

[Creature]

Mainly when Sotty wasn't in danger of being lynched so scum were actually fine.

[Creature]

idk, the moments where scum were most likely unaware.

[BlackVoid]

The only times Sotty7 really wasn't under pressure was in the first few pages and nothing there is really telling. Then finally when the Victor wagon cropped up in response to GreyICE, it became a town vs town counterwagons for the day. MariaR and Rask were the ones who caused this to happen by voting Victor when they did.

[Creature]

Okay, let me see how town was divided D1.

[Creature]

Votecount 1.12

GreyICE (5)

Sotty7 , MichelSableheart , BlackVoid , VictorDeAngelo , I Am Innocent , L-2

Jaack (2)

Hoopla , MariaR ,

MichelSableheart (1)

CloudKicker ,

VictorDeAngelo (2)

goodmorning , GreyICE ,

Sotty7 (3)

Jaack , Raskolnikov , TwoFace ,

Day one deadline is Thursday November 3, 8 AM PST. (expired on 2016-11-03 08:00:00)

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch!

[/size]

Votecount 1.13

GreyICE (6)

Sotty7 , MichelSableheart , VictorDeAngelo , I Am Innocent , Hoopla , BlackVoid L-1,

MichelSableheart (1)

CloudKicker

VictorDeAngelo (5)

goodmorning , GreyICE , MariaR , Raskolnikov , Jaack L-2,

Sotty7 (1)

TwoFace ,

Not Voting (1)

CloudKicker ,

Day one deadline is Thursday November 3, 8 AM PST. (expired on 2016-11-03 08:00:00)

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch!

[/size]

[Creature]

Meh, would scum!GM push a counterwagon to GI?

(if it wasn't GM who initially pushed, then who it was?)

[Creature]

Also, taking a look at Hoopla, do you think she's actually solving the game or just posting content that doesn't advance the game?