Kingmaker II-Game Over

[RafK]

(Replacing Mert)

I'll check in at greater length later on.

In the meantime,

vote spectrumvoid

. I've been reading the thread for a while in expectation of replacing in, and he's been tripping the meters like no other. I do not understand why the pressure on him went away.

I didn't like Pablito a hell of a lot on day 1 either.

I have a policy of accepting early scum-finds with open arms until such time as the person actively loses my trust. Glork hasn't done anything to actively lose my trust. I currently trust Glork more than just about anyone else in the game except me.

I don't quite get where the Yosarian case came from and would appreciate an explanation so I know what to look for while re-reading.

[RafK]

Question- how do I increase the posts per page on this forum? If there's an option to do so, I missed it.


Answer to pablito: How am I meant to explain why Mert did anything? This is the unfortunate thing about replacements, and why I don't usually replace. You can judge them on what the original player did (and should, I don't believe in free passes for replacements), but you generally can't get answers unless there's a role-based thing involved. However, as I understood it Mert was mostly being attacked for lurking, and I can explain that by saying he doesn't seem to be at the site now and I won't be lurking so no problem there.

Don't worry, analysis of you will come pablito, you needn't prod me for it.



Analysis of spectrumvoid:

His first few posts I didn't really like how he attacked box (whether the other attacks were valid is another story, but SV's

I'm not buying the newbieness. Playing on emotion is a scum-tell. Claiming when not under pressure is a scum-tell. Giving up is a scum-tell. vote: cardb0ardb0x.

is rampant labelling rather than argument.

Moving on however to the main SV theme of day 1...

SV's next few posts were innocuous and not going anywhere (like the whole thing against MOS for not voting, and against Phoebus for playing by gut), although he does seem to kinda be sucking up to PJ in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 072#445072.

And again in:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 246#445246

Changes his mind "because of what PJ said":
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 196#450196

Barns PJ regarding Phoebus
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 884#451884


http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 906#452906
Disagrees with MBL concerning the plan for PJ to nominate two people in advance as King choices to steer the Kingmaker. MBL was completely right that this is a bad idea, and for two reasons- 1) the Kingmaker can trust him/herself, but doesn't know if PJ is similarly trustworthy, or even if PJ is a better judge of character and 2) It allows the mafia to pick which of two potential kings it prefers.

Pooky also came up with a plan on day 1 that was bad for the town (to do with getting the Kingmaker public).


http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 879#451879
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 191#456191
Posts a week apart. In post one, he's not cutting box any slack (box who he's been voting since near the start). In the second one, he unvotes and doesn't remember why he was voting box. This suggests to me insincerity.

SV then gets back to Phoebus again, after a flirtation with voting pablito that doesn't really tell me anything one way or the other.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 871#459871
For some reason stands up for Vaughn against Thok. I'm always a bit suspicious of day 1 defences, doubly so when it's of a lurker, quadruply so when the person should have not so much as a hint of whether the person is a lurker or not.

There's a difference between being against a day 1 lurker lynch generally and being against the lynch of a SPECIFIC lurker. Especially as Thok gave reasons to vote Vaughn beyond lurking, and we know Thok was sincere.

This isn't saying "SV and Vaughn are mafia together". Maybe he was trying to look good defending someone he knows is townie. This is "SV stands up for someone he should have no business standing up for".


As a summary of day 1, in my initial read I was a bit suspect of SV partly because of the barning PJ thing, but also because despite his relatively decent activity rate, he makes little or no comment at all on some of the day's critical issues (including Rosso Carne). Day 2 (coming soon!) is where I feel the real meat is.

[RafK]

At this stage I'm really only confident in offering SV and perhaps Pablito. That's the closest to a top 3 I can offer.

Happily, the game from which my new avatar was taken has now finished, and my time for analysis here increased. I should get around to part 2 of SV by Friday.

[RafK]

Advocating the King executing an inactive because they're inactive sounds more pro-scum than anything (especially since you know the person being replaced is hardly going to show up to defend themselves!).

Rikimaru, I have found my additional people to vote for your consideration. Bear in mind that SV is still my #1 suspect.

vote Yosarian2. vote Cogito Ergo Sum

.

[RafK]

Advocating the King executing an inactive because they're inactive sounds more pro-scum than anything (especially since you know the person being replaced is hardly going to show up to defend themselves!).

Rikimaru, I have found my additional people to vote for your consideration. Bear in mind that SV is still my #1 suspect.

vote Yosarian2. vote Cogito Ergo Sum

.

You know, not paying attention is scummy.

If you'd payed any attention at all to anything that's happened this game, if you've read any of my posts from, like, ever, you'd know that I want the king to execute Phoebus because I think Phoebus is scum. Duh.

But that's not the reasoning you were using there to get him executed.

[RafK]

But that's not the reasoning you were using there to get him executed.

If you'd been paying any attention to this game, you would have known that the fact that he was going to have to be replaced was the least of the reasons I wanted him executed.

I hear the sound of backpedalling. Whatever the validity or otherwise of your other arguments, you posted there to try to get Rikimaru to execute Phoebus on the basis that Phoebus needs to be replaced anyway, and now you're running a mile from standing behind that.

If you wanted him lynched only on the basis of the other arguments, then whatever, but you opened up a new line of attack, and one with which I don't agree at all because it involves killing someone before a replacement can get in to talk or defend himself. And now you're just trying to point to your other arguments and distance yourself from the fact that you also tried this one on for size.

I still don't know exactly why Glork etc want you dead from before, but personally I'm adequately persuaded now just by this little exchange.

I still want to get around to doing day 2 of spectrumvoid, though (yes, I saw your response to day 1 SV, I just haven't got around to dealing with you yet).

[RafK]

And RafK, what do you think about LL and my arguments against you?

1) It's your argument. LL proxied his opinion to you. But I appreciate you want to sound big.

2) It was against Mert, not me.

3) I already said you're entitled to hold Mert's behaviour against me, but that I have no way of knowing what Mert thought or why he did or said anything. This is an unfortunate problem with replacements, as I'm sure you're aware.

[RafK]

No, I was just observing that it would save the mod some trouble if we went ahead and killed phoebus, which is not at all the same thing as saying "let's kill Phoebus for lurking".

I think the implication was clear, but the posts are there and it's up to everyone else to decide whether they agree with you that you were just observing and being humerous or whether they agree with me that you were trying to use the replacement situation to add to the pressure on the King to execute Phoebus.

The fact that you're trying to pretend that was supposed to be some kind of serious and independent argument for lynching phoebus is really making me wonder about you.

Perhaps you do this all the time and expect it to be taken for a joke, but it didn't look like a joke to me. It looks like you're trying to pass it off as a joke after the fact.

I assumed everyone would understand that that post was a humerous way of me not allowing my constant and ongoing suspicion of him to be forgotten

I apologize for my apparently lousy sense of humour. Or possibly for yours.

The fact that you're now trying to make a huge deal out of this is making me suspicious of you, as it's often scum who I see trying to make a mountain out of a molehill, and espeaclly as you are apparently trying to make a federal case out of a couple of humerous posts in order to defend Phoebus and/or CTD.

I have no brief for either of them. I'm quite happy to look at a real case on Phoebus (I have asked for a case, linkages to said case would do me- this thread is sodding enormous, you know?, and no-one's pointed me in the right direction yet). I'm running based on my initial skim-read, my re-read of day 1, and my reading along of this game since I first signed up to replace about 5 weeks ago or whenever it was.

Molehill or not, the tactic tried by both you and CES there smellsed enough for me to launch an attack and get some reactions so I can get my own reads on people. Your reaction of backpedalling and now passing it off as a joke and OMGUS counterattacking has smelled even more than the initial post.

[RafK]

So...you really expect us to believe that you thought "hay, if we lynch Phoebus, that's one less lurker the mod's gotta replace!" was supposed to be a serious, rational argument on my part that Phoebus should be lynched?

Perhaps I wouldn't have if you'd phrased it in that over-the-top way. However, in the circumstances, yes I did.

It wouldn't be the first time I saw scum trying to capitalize on a slow, dragging day and potential impatient townie reactions.



You didn't run the "it was a funny!" line to start with, either. Even in your second response post, you still just said:

If you'd been paying any attention to this game, you would have known that the fact that he was going to have to be replaced was the least of the reasons I wanted him executed.

Not "it wasn't a real reason I wanted him executed, I was joking". You were just trying to play it down. It hadn't occurred to you yet to try and pass it off as a joke.

Which means you're making this stuff up.

Which means you're a liar, and we have this thing we do to liars in mafia.

unvote all. CONFIRM VOTE YOSARIAN2

[RafK]

olio: That one.

CES- no, I don't intend to trust you on that (and I'm interested to know why Glork is suddenly on Yos' side, because I trust Glork so far and I don't know why he changed his mind). If Yosarian was joking, why did he initially defend the remark as just being a minor part of his case? He only now changed to say it was a joke. It's the inconsistency that convinces me he's lying scum.

My standard town tactics are to start something and see the reactions. I started something on you and Yos. Yos' reactions have been of someone with something to hide, as far as I'm concerned. Perhaps he can fool people who expect him to joke around or something, but objectively- from an outsider's point of view- he's being inconsistent and has something to hide.

CES, do you deny there's an inconsistency between the way Yos initially defended his post and the way he's now defending it? Commit to a position on this

[RafK]

By the way, you've been in this game for 3 weeks now. The fact that you apparnetly still haven't actually read the game worries me.

I never said I didn't know you'd attacked Phoebus. Playing the man not the ball, by belittling my knowledge of the game and implying I'm dumb because "everyone else got it", appears to be your thing.

My impression of the attacks against Phoebus were that they were approximately identical to the attacks against MoS: both publically chose to adopt playstyles in this game which are unhelpful to the town. If there was a lot more to it, it was lost in the haze. 50 pages+ is a lot to absorb in one read-through, and I was more focussed on other people.

I didn't think it was too much to ask for you to summarise your arguments against the guy for the benefit of the legion of recent replacements, but apparently you'd rather keep people in the dark and not commit to a particular set of reasons or something like that.

There's a lot of pages in this game (especially for less than 3 days of play), and an army of replacements that necessitates re-reading with a list next to the monitor of who became who. For the townies in the game a long time who would like to keep activity going (I understand Yosarian2 does not fall into this category), try to be a little bit replacement friendly and summarise your arguments instead of just saying "re-read 50 pages and see what I said".

[RafK]

Thanks Yos.

Still think you were being inconsistent, in spite of the legion who have showed up to apparently disapprove of someone in this game trying to create something to talk about, but I'm happy enough with your last replies to let it go. There's nothing further to say on this thread anyhow.

Got to get around to that spectrumvoid day 2 soon.

[RafK]

CES- not a newbie. Newbie to mafiascum, yes. Not a newbie at all.

I don't think my argument is flawed; if it is, it's only because I don't know Yos and so I don't have metagame knowledge of when he's joking. You deny there's an inconsistency, fine, but why?

He:
1) Passed the comment off as just being a minor part of his case on Phoebus, then

2) Said he was actually joking.

To me, if he was joking, he would have said so to begin with. It's either a serious but small part of his case, or it's a joke, but not both. That's the inconsistency... you deny it exists, so which part of the above is incorrect?

[RafK]

I've now re-read day 2 but I'm at work without access to notes. The short version of spectrumvoid's day 2 that caught my eye strongly after the fact was the way she spent much of the day consistently defending Pooky. At this point in day 3, it also catches my eye that she also strongly defended Yos. With both Pooky and Yos on Glork's list of execution, spectrumvoid's choice of execution was "neither of them".

From here on, it's going to get a little confusing. Here's why: I don't want either Yos or Pooky to get executed

It felt like she started the day fairly interested in sucking up to day 2's king (Glork), as she did to day 1's king on day 1 (PJ), but once Glork crusaded against Pooky, she wavered trying to say that Glork had some good points but also that Pooky wasn't too bad, and then just gave up and attacked Glork and fully defended Pooky.

She also attacked other people that attacked Pooky and Yos, such as bird1111 (in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 438#475438)

And like Yos (most likely following Yos' lead, actually), she picked Phoebus as her deflection-lynch target.


Oh yeah, and I found it most amusing that spectrumvoid also used the "let's lynch someone who's gone AWOL so they don't need to be replaced" thing. And she was definitely serious about it. And her candidate for missing-guy lynch was Mert.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 689#481689


Then at the start of day 3, she immediately comes out swinging at Glork (and simultaneously FOSing LL for being a Pooky supporter. Pot. Kettle. Black).

After being put under pressure regarding her anti-Glork behaviour, she eventually climbed down in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 786#493786

This brings us up to the point I replaced in to the game. I'll give SV a chance to explain this stuff too, and then deal with her reply to day 1 and her reply to the above together.

[RafK]

I didn't suddenly go for spectrumvoid. I started off attacking SV, the Yosarian thing popped up in the middle, then I continued the case against SV.

It's completely wrong to say that I attacked SV as a distraction from the Yosarian case.

[RafK]

So really, Dead Rikimaru goes through the trouble of making and posting all those comments and you guys (not all of you, but there's a lot) can't be bothered to look or comment on what he's said?

Seriously, if you're going to comment on his inactivity or lack of hammer, then at least do something with what he's given you. Dead Rikimaru may be lagging, but he's hardly unpassionate.

It'll help him make his decision quicker if you can process and discuss in the same manner as how he would like to proceed.

Suck-up.

Also, Riki's summary was only of the first two days and is substantially factual rather than presenting any kind of conclusion or argument, which doesn't exactly make it an ideal vehicle for an argument (not that many people apparently have the will left for a serious argument).

I think we need a List of Execution at the very least here, along with Riki's reasoning behind same.

[RafK]

So still nothing.

If Rikimaru has left the site entirely, just execute him and move on. It sucks a great deal, since we basically have to go through most of this again without getting to have the business end of today's discussion, but c'est la vie. Letting the game die to inactivity would be worse.

[RafK]

Smash:
Your summary accords mostly with my own own view of various people (Yos being the glaring exception), so that makes me feel better. Of the named, I definitely favour an SV execution ahead of the others, but I wouldn't exactly hate a LL or CES execution or even at this point DoS since either he's scum or it should help us catch scum.

The only thing I'd add besides "Re-read Yos" is to do with your comment on KScope. There apparently was something major when he was bird, but- crash, and us replacements have only other people's words for what was said, which sucks because from what survives, it appears Pooky was involved in the argument. I see Yos (of all people) has covered this too.

Well, the other thing is that I think you can be more positive about Glork. Bussing as a tactic is overrated, and especially when it's unnecessary bussing.


LL:
Man I hate that "you may as well lynch me", and I've seen it from scum and town both so I can't even use it to help decided what you really are.

[RafK]

All hail our glorious ruler! And let his magnificent light illuminate the darkest desires!

Your exultation in this turn of events is noted. As is Toaster Strudel's, but I already had you (CES) on the list anyway whereas I have no real read on Toaster or any of his predecessors.

Anyway, our ruler is trying the standard mafia look-how-reasonable-I-am tactic, in this case by letting the populace decided some spots on the LOE. I suggest hoisting him by his own petard.

vote Yosarian2, spectrumvoid and CES

[RafK]

vote: RafK, ThAdmiral

need more info on them. Pressure votes.

Pressure to do what, exactly?

[RafK]

MOS: I still have no idea how to deal with what he's doing, but I also feel that (in a game where voting has no actual effect) his lack of voting isn't so anti-town whereas the discussion caused by his attitude is helpful. Plus he has been intentionally drawing enough hate to risk being summarily executed if the wrong person becomes King, which is risky.

So overall, no.

Phoebus replacement: My no on Phoebus is predicated on Yos being scum, so obviously we have a conundrum on this answer

SV: Yes. My opinion has not changed. If we got any information out of the Pooky execution (and subsequently from Glork being proven town) it is that SV is on the wrong side.

Smashy: I feel that DR was town, mostly due to his last big post as King. The irritation of him going AWOL doesn't have anything to do with scumminess. Hence, no to Smashy at this time.

[RafK]

I would REALLY like to see SOME kind of response from mnowax on the case against him, soon.

And it's also quite frustrating that Smashy is getting replaced right when he's one of my top suspects.

It's really frustrating that Smashy is getting replaced when he JUST replaced Dead Rikimaru. Just long enough to perform the execution and then not talk about it.

Given that executions are the only informaton source we get in this game, being robbed of the ability to discuss the reasons for the most recent one is a serious PITA.

[RafK]

In this game? It's usual for people not to post in over a month and then get replaced

Regarding SV, I still think that the defence of Pookie and the barning onto king PJ on day 1 (which is suspect whether PJ is scum or town) are the key points of that case. Everything can be individually excused or mea culpa'd, but as was said above, it's a pattern, and SV hasn't done a lot that's NOT in some way suspicious.

To some extent I think this choice comes down to SV, MOS or Phoebus's replacement: it's time to poop or get off the throne in respect of those cases, they've all been lingering since day 1/early day 2, and people have committed to opinions on both of them. I'm less sure of getting any useful information out of an immediate smashy or mnowax lynch (or even an immediate CES lynch, since of course my suspicions go beyond Yos' LOE). I reckon a Yos execution wouldn't do too bad for information and chance of hitting scum either, there's a lot of commitment around Yos, but why do I think he's unlikely to go for that?

[RafK]

I just found it strange how a number of people suddenly came out with Pooky votes very easily when Glork is pretty much alone in his suspicions Day 1.

Pooky lurked day 1 after a couple of initial posts, hence there wasn't much to attract attention. My reading of day 2 suggests that Pooky's day 1 lurking caught up with him, e.g. people realised that Pooky wasn't lurking due to absence or playstyle (he was active in other games) but due to staying the hell out of the way, plus the way he was acting on day 2 didn't help him.

All in all, I wouldn't want to clear him for being lost as a king, but I do think it is all the case against him is supported by. He hasn't really done anything significantly scummy.

I don't think DR did anything significantly scummy, given that his eventual absence was probably "complete absence from mafia" more than anything else. There's a case concerning the way Smashy went about the execution, but given the situation (coming in as a replacement and having to execute someone fairly quickly) I don't see it as the #1 case.



VR:
I hadn't replaced in yet when Pooky was executed, so I'm naturally a bit questioning of the rigour of any argument that specifically separates into "as Mert" and "as RafK" but then puts Mert stuff under me (FWIW, though, as said above, I don't think people voting Pooky on the whole are scummy- quite the reverse. I'm sure a couple of scum got in on the action, but to imply that people who voted Pooky easily are scum is just weird. It's like the people attacking Glork for executing Pooky on the suspicion of bussing... it's just paranoia. It's something to keep in mind if the person's behaviour is otherwise scummy, but it's not a first assumption).

As for the explanation for my CES vote, it's a continuation from yesterday's spat with Yos and CES. I feel he was scummy in how he pushed for a Phoebus lynch instead of waiting for Phoebus to be replaced (irony!) and for how he behaved subsequent.

[RafK]

"kill anyone, I don't care" is just not a pro-town way of acting, at all. It's a complete giving up of your responsibilities.

This sounds like a really easy obvious townie thing to say as scum. 8)

Especially since you'd know that basic townies are traditionally the role most likely to just lose interest in a game, and this game has had loads of people lose interest

And also there was quite a lot of that "execute anyone!" fever going around late yesterday, and I didn't see you in on your high horse then.

I did see you encouraging the point of view that we just execute Phoebus to avoid the need for a replacement though 8)

[RafK]

Did we lose anything of signficance in the crash?

[RafK]

How did we go from:

Yosarian's
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 511#544511
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 820#548820

in which mnowax wasn't on the shortlist or the final List of Execution, to mnowax not only joining the list but becoming Yos' main target?

My feeling on mnowax remains as it was: I don't have a strong read on him, either way, but the way this day has turned around and zero'd on him makes me feel that he's being set up as a "safe" kill... there's not going to be much information from mnowax because not many people (if any) have taken really strong stands about him, but at the same time he hasn't done anything especially townie that makes him look like an insupportable choice.

I am particularly amazed after all that has happened that Yosarian hasn't put his money where his mouth is and put Phoebus' replacement front and center for the lynch. Perhaps he's not interested in proving himself wrong?


I point this stuff out, of course, because I think we're watching a scum King at work and I would like to make sure his tactics are not missed.

[RafK]

Methinks RafK is mnowax's scumbuddy, or just completely unobservant. Yosarian was not at all responsible for mnowax's jump to the forefront, I was the one that pointed out how scummy he was, and mnowax did all the work for me.

Yes and yes- but it was Yos' choice to do so. He's the king. He didn't have to give a crap what you poiinted out (for example, he hasn't put spectrumvoid or battle mage on the spot despite PJ's analysis). Yos is responsible for who he puts on the LOE and who he executes.


Yos: I never said I was in favour of executing Vitamin R/Phoebus, but you did and he was even on your initial list of suspects today. I'm pointing out your inconsistencies. My preferred executions are still you and SV, which I'm not likely to get while you're King. A Vitamin R lynch, however, would at least have one saving grace: presuming he turns up town, it would shine a light on those who tried to get him executed yesterday while they weren't personally responsible for it... a mnowax lynch provides relatively little information, since until now he hasn't been at the centre of discussion.

[RafK]

EBWODP: It occurs to me that the above could be read as advocating a VitaminR lynch. This is not the case. My comment on the saving grace of a VitaminR lynch is the reason I believe Yos is choosing not to do it. I mostly advocate Yos bussing SV, with a side helping of Yos suiregiciding.

[RafK]

Big shock, scum king avoided executing SV and mnowax was town.

vote Yosarian, vote spectrumvoid

Pressure to finally execute either of the above pleasekthx.

[RafK]

And RafK decided I was scum 3 days ago for a really crap reason, and he's just been repeating it over and over again ever since then. Big surprise.

I've been compiling reasons; you may have noticed that I walked the town through the way you were being a scum king yesterday. But by all means rely on belittling me again as your defense- just as you did when I came into the game and first accused you, and your first port of call was saying I didn't understand that you were "joking". You're only digging yourself in deeper. I'm pretty confident that the town will see you as scum now- it's just a matter of what our king for the day does.

[RafK]

You were just assuming that SV was scum because you thought you saw a connection between her and me, and you were assuming I was scum because you were assuming she was scum. Circular argument.

Now you're blatantly misrepresenting. I was against SV before I was against you, and my arguments against SV (and the arguments of others against SV, such as petroleumjelly's) have nothing at all to do with you. But your attempt to claim the arguments against SV are nothing is noted.

[RafK]

This latest missive from MoS is uber-weird. PRE-PLANNED PLAYSTYLE???

Gimme a break.

vote: MoS

He said from day 1 that he was going to refuse to vote, and that's what got him into trouble from the start. It's not something he just invented.

[RafK]

Incidentally, assuming the "standard" 25% of total players are scum, it's now 5 scum out of 16 remaining players. We're not hunting some lone survivor.

[RafK]

I think it's worth knowing which way you're thinking at this point, though.

The mnowax execution has changed extremely little since he wasn't a focal point for any of the ongoing arguments through the last couple of days (which if you listen to me is a strong sign of Yos being scum, given that he avoided executing anyone he'd previously argued against). I suspect that a lot of the town (those talking, anyway) probably feel like they'd just be repeating themselves if they re-stated their opinions now. I know I would. It's just statements, not argument. There's no-one in particular to convince.

The argument begins once the block is set up and we have something to argue over and someone to convince.

[RafK]

You didn't have to execute VitaminR, no, but you did quickly and quietly drop your campaign against him after hounding his predecessor for days. It is scummy IMO for you to argue against him so long and then just drop it without so much as a by your leave when you're actualy given the chance to put your money where your mouth is. And not just him- you dropped all the guys on your initial LOE.

Obviously I disagree with you that mnowax was the most scummy yesterday... it came across very much like you leaped at the opportunity to take him as soon as he was presented to you even though his behaviour up to that point hadn't been enough to get you to put him on your LOE yourself.

[RafK]

CES: No, it's not OMGUSy.

Then why didn't you jump ThAdmiral for doing the exactly same thing as Lowell did?

You jumped Lowell because he was the one who disagreed with you. Therefore, it was OMGUS logic. If it was legit, you would have also called out ThAdmiral for likewise doing bugger all and then showing up to "I agree".

Also noted how you try to hammer in that you're the "good guy" and that Lowell is scum for attacking the "good guy". Even if it were true that you are town, there's nothing to prove you town, and no reason why people should particularly trust you based on your track record. You're working very hard to shout down opposition and TALK yourself up as an obviously townie player, but I think you'd be hard pressed to provide examples of your play in this game to back that up.

[RafK]

"provie examples of my play to back that up"? Um, like what? Like all the analyis and scumhunting I've done over the course of this game

Oh, yeah, I forgot about all the scum you caught.

Wait, you didn't. So it's nice of you to stick with the generalities, but you haven't DONE lots of scumhunting.

or like how I managed to get the town to be more active and participatory yesterday after the game had nearly died the day before?

Brownie points for not being another lurker king, but not letting the game die is just a good player thing, it's not a specific townie thing. The scum don't win either if the game is abandoned.

I think I've certanly done more to help the town this game then you have.

A) Your opinion.

B) I think I'm up. I'm probably at 0 until I get you or SV-scum lynched, but you're in negative numbers from the mnowax lynch.

Once again, you spend a post trying to convince people like you've been this great asset to the town without any substance behind that.

[RafK]

Cessy, Yossy, Mossy, RafK, I'd like you all to take some time to analyze Fritzler and VitaminR and report your findings.

Snap answer version: I can't read Fritzler. I can't get a sense of what he is here since there's no lynch votes or actions, and his conversational style (or lack thereof) is very hard to read. He's usually very decisive, but this is not a game which lends itself to that unless he gets made King and I don't know that I want to see that at this stage.

As I said yesterday, my stance on Phoebus/VitaminR is inexorably linked to my stance on Yosarian. It is unquestionable that Yos on previous days wanted other kings to actually execute Phoebus, and if Yos comes up scum it practically clears Phoebus/VitaminR by default. I don't have an independent opinion of Phoebus/VR otherwise. Phoebus mostly lurked; VitaminR replaced in after I mentally shut up shop on the issue, so I've been reading him under a town assumption really. Can't say I've read anything that really shook the assumption.

[RafK]

I see no point in analysing Zindaras's play at this time. Zindaras has never appeared on my scumdar, so I'm not going to go after him (like the way I did for Glork, and to a smaller extent, PJ.)

Actually, one of the reasons my suspicions were drawn to you on my original read-through was the way you sucked up to PJ while he was king. You certainly didn't go after him early on.

[RafK]

Away from now on until Thursday 24th. Unfortunately don't have the time to thoroughly read the no doubt fascinating slap fight I see has taken place in the last day or two between ex-pablito and still-MOS; hoping to see a LOE by the time I get back to kick this day up a notch.

[RafK]

ex-pablito...lol...can't you just call him Thesp?

Reminding myself (and others) of who he was before, for context. pablito had a lot of participation before he was replaced by Thesp.


Of Zindaras' LOE, I vote spectrumvoid obviously. For the reasons previously given by myself and more recently by PJ. To pre-empt SV shoiwng up and saying "but I answered those!", suffice to say that I wasn't incredibly impressed by the answers (I know that SV is now going to ask "Why?", but I've been home for about an hour so I think I'll wait a bit to get to that part).

Since Zindy put SV on the LOE but didn't comment much/at all on the case, I would be interested to know what Zindy's thoughts on the SV case are.

[RafK]

I like Cavane's views and wish to subscribe to his newsletter. It's nice to replace an uncertain (the perpetually lurking DH/Vaughn) with a presence. My view of the "battle lines" here is finally taking shape.

Much as I'm not 100% certain of Fritzler either way, at this point my main problem with a Fritzler lynch is we need a lynch that resolves some arguments once and for all. We need someone executed that will make some people put up or shut up. Fritz is starting to feel like mnowax was yesterday: a late target about whom there's not been a lot of discussion on previous days. The only difference is that whereas mnowax was not one of Yos' own targets originally, but rather a late switch, Zindy raised Fritzler as an option pretty much from the start of this day (if not for that, you'd better believe I would be chalking Zindy up as a definite scum king right about now, instead of keeping an open mind on the subject).

[RafK]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]Hammer Fritz or Mnowax, now.[/quote]

Worried about something?

There's definitely sides coalescing on this one. The people desperate for the execution to be Fritz or mnowax (anything but SV!), and the other people. Some of the other people want SV dead, some are looking all around, but there's definitely a bloc fixated on avoiding the execution of anyone who's been the focus of argument. I believe the name of that bloc is "all or mostly scum".

To answer Cavane's question: Yos2, hands down. There is still a slight possibility that SV is a townie being used by the mafia as a stalking horse, someone they defend to gain credibility if a townie executes her. SV has not on the whole, since about day 2, been heavily involved in arguing for and against executions. Yos is no-one's stalking horse. Execution of Yos would establish which "side" is the scummy one. However, of the LOE, I would still execute SV. I think it would be very difficult (especially with the million or so replacements) for the scum to try and set a townie SV up like that.

[RafK]

Would prove I'm full of crap, and probably lead to the execution of myself and others you have been against.

However, I am very very very confident that you would come up scum- knowing that I am town, if you're town as well then the scum have an easy win here by getting you killed (whether by execution or nightkill) and then me executed in retaliation. Or alternatively me nightkilled, and you executed in retaliation. The scum are avoiding this confrontation- there hasn't been a massive chorus of support either with me or directly against me. Instead, time and again the thrust of the support goes to a target off to the side.

[RafK]

FWIW, Zindy, SV has the highest number of votes too. Just saying

[RafK]

She knows who's scum, she's just not telling.

Where's the :teach: smilie when you need it?

[RafK]

I do not work under the assumption that someone is scum until that someone is actually found to be scum.

Nonetheless, it's up to you to execute someone, which will require you to assume someone is at least probably scum before they are actually proven to be so. There's no cops in this game; no absolute proof available.

As is obvious enough, I've been set on SV and Yos for 3 days. Neither of the last two executions, nor SV and Yos' performances during those days, have done anything but reinforce my feeling that I'm on the right track- nonetheless, it's always possible that today's execution will force me to reconsider.

The advantage of assuming someone is scum and working from there is that you can see if it makes sense or not. If not, you assume someone else is scum and see if that's better.

Assuming everyone's town

a priori

means you're getting something wrong, after all.

[RafK]

FWIW, I will note that one of the reasons I was dissatisfied with Yosarian's kingship was that after attacking Phoebus/VitaminR heavily on previous days, VR dropped off the radar entirely long before the execution.

As I noted on that day, my view on Phoebus/VitaminR is tied up with my view of Yos. I didn't have anything in particular against phoebus, and VR replaced in after the fact.

A VR execution would not be the worst information-wise, but at the moment I feel that he will come up town and I continue to support an SV lynch. However, I definitely prefer VR to Fritzler.. I don't know which of them is more likely scum, but a number of people pushed both for and against VR (and particularly for or against Phoebus) and that will give us some stuff to analyse. Whereas Fritz has been under the radar most of the game.... in circumstances where I have to choose between equally scummy people, such as VR and Fritz, I think information is very justifiable as the tie-break.

However, I reiterate that SV is my #1 choice from the LOE. SV can't be allowed to skate by another day.

[RafK]

I might be up for a TS execution after SV. Worth doing up a case tomorrow, certainly.

Not going to scream for an instant execution, but I do think we need Zindy to say something, as no-one's really seeing fit to say anything new.

[RafK]

It's a dangerous thing to do, but I have the second coming of mnowax down as being too obviously terrible/scummy to be scum :/

[RafK]

MoS talks sense. Although I also think that SV is worth lynching more than Fritzler just because I can identify definite scummy things she did, whereas for Fritzler it's more a case of flying under the radar a bit much, which isn't quite as high on my list (the same arguments apply to people like TS and KScope).

[RafK]

Especially in a game with even less ways than usual to establish if someone is scum or town (not even voting records, really). The "Lights Out" style game establishes rather well that it can be worth allowing the scum to make a kill in exchange for information, so getting information by executing a likely scum seems to be a no-brainer to me.

As I've said over and over, SV is probably scum, and if SV dies and comes up scum we have a great starting point for discussion tomorrow. But if SV dies and comes up town, we still have that great starting point for discussion. We're still in with a chance both ways. Even if I thought Fritzler was equally as scummy as SV (which I don't), we wouldn't have much to go on tomorrow if he died and came up town. Which makes SV the much better play for winning the game.

[RafK]

Are you planning on claiming scum?

[RafK]

There was a point to making sure neither was the Kingmaker before dropping the hammer (although if I were them, I would have played that card some time after being on the LOE and being discussed as a serious execution candidate, rather than waiting to the very last second). I suppose if either was a recent replacement it might have also been helpful to see if they did something dumbass and claimed doc or something

At any rate, though, you've got your claims now. On with the show.

[RafK]

I wanted either me or PJ king, and I also thought one of the two of us was going to get killed. I am glad that someone I was a bit suspicious of was killed, spares me making a mistake.

Zindaras gets some brownie points for the SV execution, but there's a decent chance of a bussing here, mostly because SV wasn't Zindy's preferred target on the LOE originally and I do feel that SV became the execution out of sheer pressure from the town at large (not just me).


It won't come as any shock to anyone that Yosarian is suspect #1 for me at this point, but SV being proven scum is a dent on several other people, and I intend to do a recap of everyone surviving once I get a chance.

[RafK]

Zindaras gets some brownie points for the SV execution, but there's a decent chance of a bussing here, mostly because SV wasn't Zindy's preferred target on the LOE originally and I do feel that SV became the execution out of sheer pressure from the town at large (not just me).

I never outlined my preference during my Kingship, so I don't know what you're getting that from. In fact, during Yossy's kingship, I revealed a strong preference for a voidybuns execution:

The key point there is "during Yos' kingship", e.g. "when it wasn't your call" (and Yos wasn't in favour of an SV execution- whether or not he's scum himself, this is so- so it would be the perfect time to distance yourself from SV if you were so incline).

HOWEVER, I'm withdrawing from this one a little bit because I misread you in two places. When you brought out your LOE you seemed to focus more on Fritz and VR and leave arguments about SV as an afterthought, and then I'd noticed you vote for Fritzler and VR but not SV- however, I see now that you were doing that to make a point about voting, which I must have glossed over the first time, and when you said about SV that you'd given your arguments earlier, this was true- it was just that t was mostly a few months ago in real time, on a previous day

[RafK]

VR: SV's "fawning" was full-blown "sucking up to the king", at least on day 1. When Glork became king it kind of stuffed up SV's strategy in that direction, since she'd been pushing at Glork, and there was an obvious change of gears. I wouldn't say it was a contrived argument- it was a major part of my original case against SV back on day 3. It was a pattern of behaviour, not just one isolated post.

I don't want to play WIFOM games with SV's last day of posting towards Fritz and VR. She would have been playing under the knowledge that she was a potential execution target. Other people's posting towards SV in the past few days, when she was saved from execution a couple of times, is going to be more useful.

[RafK]

That's pretty much it. A quick run-down of what Voidybuns has posted regarding others. A few very interesting things. Massive switches on Vitamin/Phoebus and Yosarian. First defends Yosarian, then attacks him. Seems a bit like bussing, especially because Yos vanishes from her suspicion list later on. Her behaviour regarding Phoebus is very odd as well, going from needs to die to should live. There's also a flip-flop on Glork, which may have something to do with no one following her in trying to get Glork killed and a flip-flop on MoS, where she says she doesn't get his case at first but then votes him later on and keeps trying to get him killed. Doesn't like Fritz either, but at that point, I think her posting was fairly irrelevant, so that could be just plain ol' distancing.

As a note, Yosarian did exactly the same about-face on Phoebus/VR. I read it at the time as "oh god, if he dies and comes up town we're in for it", but it could as easily have been "enough distancing, we don't actually want him dead" I suppose. It never really came up as a possibility before to me. Let it be said it remains far down my list of possibilities, though (it only exists at all for the very OMGUS reason that his opening attack today is against exactly the wrong people).

I think the about-face on Glork was definitely a "please don't kill me!" thing.

MoS could be mutual bussing or could be scum willing to attack anyone to live, who knows? Similarly Fritz.

[RafK]

(shrug) Other then not executing scum, I think I did pretty good at being king. I at least got people talking and generated a lot like information. After which, I excuted the wrong person. Doh. Oh well, guess I'm not perfect after all.

My case on you would boil down to defending SV (not merely failing to execute her), aggressively going after Phoebus/VR then dropping it completely at the exact moment you had a chance to do something about it, executing mnowax who wasn't even on your original LOE in what appeared (even prior to the execution) to be an attempt to not execute anyone who'd been the subject of major debate, still defending SV, and trying to puff up your importance to the town in things such as generating conversation to cover the fact that what you have most contributed to is townie misexecutions and the defence of scum.

[RafK]

My great failing as a town player is that I can get tunnel vision. My great strength as a town player is that I am very difficult to distract (it's not impossible, but most of the time I mess up when I get distracted, so I've worked hard at not being distracted). My strike rate on crusades is very very good, so I'm willing to take the occasional error in stride.

So far I'm 1 for 1 this game, so you'll excuse me if I think your attempt to say that your play is good and my play is bad comes off as just a little bit hollow.

[RafK]

So silly that I'm the only one suspicious of Yos.

Oh, wait.

You're welcome to disagree with me as to whether you think he's scum, but to say it's silly to be suspicious of him = silly itself. There's very obviously legit reasons to suspect him, regardless of what you think of the strength of the case.

[RafK]

Two comments:

1) The one problem with the analysis of DR is that he strung us along to no avail: he disappeared and got replaced. He disappeared for weeks on end, tried to answer the clamouring by just spewing some long notes into the thread, then gave up on the game entirely and disappeared without a goodbye. It's not a lurking scenario, it's an inactivity scenario. And to metagame slightly, I would think that scum king would be one of the most interesting spots to be in the game, not a spot to go inactive in.

It's not impossible for him to be scum, but I don't think his lurking during his kingship is a good tell, because it was inactivity rather than lurking.

2) I instinctively distrust mathematical arguments in mafia games. I agree with you that it's likely 6, maaaybe 5, total mafia (which means we still face an organised group of scum, not one or two lone voices), but I don't support any lurker lynch arguments based on statistics.

[RafK]

I thought Rainbow Brite was Seol's gimmick?


Fritzler and MoS. Oh boy.

[RafK]

Yeah. Below the quick reply box, there's line of options to "Display posts from previous" and then set time period, specific users and the ordering method.

It'll probably be a few more days to do mine. End of financial year work is kicking my ass at the moment, I have enough time to check threads but not to do a serious re-read, and I think a serious re-read, not just a skim, is warranted.

[RafK]

I'm around, but as said, literally do not have the time to do a re-read until after the end-of-financial-year rush is over. E.g. it will be done after June 30.

[RafK]

Appreciated. Work has been even WORSE this week for me unfortunately.

[RafK]

He took a duck in the face at two hundred and fifty knots.

OK. Not as thorough read-through as I'd like (which would be a complete readthrough, should I ever have 6 hours or so to devote to such a thing). Nonetheless, a readthrough at least of the assigned personnel.

And it has swung my opinions a bit.

Anyway-

Fritzler

Oldest to most recent:

-Nowhere post mentioning CTD.
-Nowhere post.
-Pro-Pooky post.
-Post attacking CTD that doesn't seem serious.
-More of the same.
-(and again)
-(and still)
-Crapposting
-Actually coherent post explaining away something SV did (admittedly it does seem like a legit mistake by SV)
-Return to random anti-CTDness
-Still
-I imagine Fritzler's sig has changed by now so I have no idea what the purpose of this post was.
-Criticizes PJ's list for absence of CTD
- Two more crapposts.

(Fritzler day 1 was manic, as you can see, but unhelpful as no-one was ever going to take this seriously- least of all a reasoned player like PJ. It's hard to say, though, if this is just an act to avoid committing to anything for real or if this is just Fritz being Fritz on day 1).

- Makes first actual point for entire game (http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 601#464601) in relation to MBL giving advice on mountainous games. It's a little bit suspicious that he finally "breaks cover" in response to a vote on him for lurking, and to refute MBL on the basis that MBL was scum in a previous mountainous game (which is bad logic anyway)

-Jokes about being Pooky's scumbuddy, as others have mentioned.
-His posts 17 and 18, makes actual content again in response to SC's attempt to set up

Pooky, MoS and Fritzler

as lurking scum. Plays the man, not the ball.
-Returns to crapposting.

-Disappears for over a month (thus never has to comment on Glork's LOE or on Pooky's execution- was Fritzler actually away from the site during this, or did he just avoid the thread?).

-Returns with "Thor" gimmick, and calls

SV, yos and bird's replacement (KScope)

scum without reasons. It should be obvious why it's interesting to me that Fritz would disappear for ages, then come back with this scum list (none of whom had previously been on his public radar).
-After that, crapposts again (including another jab at CTD). No further mention of SV, yos or KScope. Part of the "kill someone" movement that started up against DR, although in fairness it would be a wrenching break of character for Fritz to not get impatient in that situation.
- http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 018#511018
Points out olio most certainly can be held accountable for his predecessor. Which is true. Of note: olio is now ThAdmiral
-Follows up with a suggestion that olio would be a good kill target.

-Disappears for a month, shows up again on day 4 and votes for everyone (which is, of course, utterly useless)
-Suggests he would have executed ThAdmiral (continuing his anti-olio thing) or

MoS

rather than LL
-Jabs at DoS (who's now VR)
-Laughs off KScope's vote
-Does not participate in Yos' plan to stimulate discussion, not that Yos did anything about that
-Back to "kill now please" crapposting.
-Two final shots at CTD/mnowax (who came up town, of course): the only person seriously prodded at by Fritzler who has actually died and had their side proven.

-Day 5: Starts up a thing to lynch mnowax again (again, someone not dead and for that reason hard to pick his motives), but basically lurks out Zindy's reign as king and does not express an opinion on the execution of SV. At all.

-Day 6 so far: has made some nothing responses to TS' brief analysis of Fritzler.


Final summation:
Fritzler has contributed amazingly little. Most of those he has in any way attacked are still alive, and he has done so little to actually attack anyone that who knows if it's distancing or serious. CTD was his most long-term target, and was town, but he never gave a reason for the wagon. As such, it's almost easier to judge Fritzler by what other people have done about him.

Yesterday I was pro-Fritz to some extent because he was being put up as an alternative to SV. It occurs to me now that we might have had a pair of scum up there... knowing if that was true will say a lot about the motives of the people putting up Fritzler yesterday (or vice versa).

The biggest black mark against Fritz is he went completely missing around the times of both scum executions and wasn't even there to cheerlead the "kill now thx" stuff, as he has been for other executions.

As such, I now lean towards the "Fritz is scum" side. But given the likelihood of getting confirmation or otherwise "for free" from how other people behaved towards him yesterday, I'm not in favour of executing him first.


I will get to MoS tomorrow.

[RafK]

OK, MoS.

MoS has posted a lot more than Fritz, btw.

First post from MoS is worth quoting, lest we forget what he said.

And now begins my masterful plan of finally playing through an entire game without voting. Unless I become king, lol.

Boy but that caused a lot of discussion. That actually pre-disposes me to be in favour of MoS a little bit. A mostly mountainous game has precious little to discuss on day 1, and to create a discussion is good town play IMO. Not to mention it made him a potential target for King PJ, which is just unnecessary for a scum on day 1 IMO. Pooky lurked, SV sucked up to the king, but neither intentionally got themselves noticed in a bad way.

MoS gets accused of trying to fly under the radar with this tactic by a number of people (Twomz, who became CES: town) and MM (who became Zindy: likely town in my book) and Yos (and we all know my opinion on Yos), and defends himself. In fairness, this is a lousy way to fly under the radar, MoS is quite right.

MoS mildly calls out Vaughn (now Cavane: ?) and Ameliaslay (LL: town), essentially for seconding and thirding a joke by MBL about PJ.

More argument with Yosarian.

SV attacks MoS' non-voting stance, while also barning his prod against Vaughn and Ameliaslay

. I'm not sure what to make of this, but I'm sure it's important. It would help if I'd got more experience with how SV operates. Drawing attention to it for the benefit of those who do. The post (and MoS' response to it) is found at http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 803#443803

MoS argues more with MM (Zindy) and reinforces that he is suspicious of Twomz, Vaughn and Ameliaslay. This is not an auspicious group to be arguing about, but it's still early day 1.

MoS says: "I believe PJ is protown". This could be interpreted as sucking up to the king a la SV, since it sure as hell has no impact on the day's execution.

MoS says box (now Lowell: ?, leaning to town in my book just because he backed me against SV and Yos) is town, then gets into an argument with

SV

who asks why box is town. Again, is this distancing or is this for real? I can't pick.

Has "bad feeling" about Glork (town) although doesn't appear to act on it.

Generally expresses feelings against putting up an LoE too early in a day (agreeing with Glork on this).

Another response to an SV post. SV wants PJ to outline who he finds suspicious, MoS points out PJ has already done so. It's a pretty inconsequential disagreement though.

MoS supports Phoebus (now VR).

SV is attacking Phoebus at this time; as we are aware, Yos also attacked Phoebus around this time. Not that Yos is proven scum YET. Ahem.

As an aside, the amount in which my opinion of MoS and VR relies on the alignment of others is annoyingly large.

Still more argument with SV. I still can't pick how legit this is. On the one hand, it's getting excessive. On the other, the arguments between them are totally lightweight.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 718#457718

Strongly opposes Phoebus (VR) execute after PJ ponders it

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 269#458269
and then continues to defend Phoebus, including yet another direct response to SV (who is attacking Phoebus):
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 802#458802
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 830#458830

MoS day 1 execution preferences: Yos (potential scum), Ubertimmy (town kingmaker), Thok (townie killed that night by the scum)

. Again not an auspicious choice of targets, and no common ground with his earlier suspicions. Although he does immediately add Twomz- another person we now know is town- to that list.

Ultimately expresses no opinions on PJ's final LoE, other than not to kill Phoebus.

Of interest compared to the Fritzler analysis: most people MoS talks about are now dead, or have been strongly involved, whereas Fritzler's choices are almost exclusively alive and relatively under the radar.

Day 2:
His first post is to suggest bird (now KScope: ?) will be a good execution a day or two "from now". I presume this is following a lost "nut-kick" conversation? Later posts suggest MoS was strongly against the nut-kick theory, which as I understand it was Pooky's theory: therefore this is probably a pro-MoS point.

We reach the post by StallingChamp (now ThAdmiral, and this is the best thing ThAdmiral has going for him IMO) where SC votes for Pooky, Fritz and MoS. MoS' rebuttal of SC's argument is pretty convincing though. I can't speak for what MoS may have said about bird, but he is correct that he gave reasons for his stance on Phoebus.

MoS supports Glork's putting of Yos on the LoE

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 417#475417

MoS interaction with Pooky and Yos at the same time

: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 369#481369

This is an odd one. Pooky did an "analysis". Yos largely agreed with Pooky- feel free to tell me if you think this is slanderm Yos- including Pooky's assessment of MoS as town. MoS takes offence to their unflattering reasons for considering him town. I can't work what this says about MoS, besides that he's got his vanity.

MoS supports both Yos and Pooky executions, leaning Yos

. If Yos is scum, I would argue that this whole pattern of events is nearly conclusively pro-MoS... he makes no attempt at all to set up a "one or the other" scenario to gain clearance for one scum out of the death of the other, or to try and get anyone else in the mix, and he's been consistent about it.

If Yos isn't scum, the whole view changes.


Day3:
SV attacks MoS for leaning Yos instead of Pooky. This tbh doesn't feel like distancing, this sort of attack could have gone the distance with Pooky now a proven scum.

Glork attacks MoS. MoS explains himself reasonably well to my mind, and doesn't attempt to OMGUS or otherwise cast doubt on Glork. There's a bit of back and forth and some concessions by Glork. This exchange reads fairly well for MoS. One of the more interesting issues is that Glork believes Pooky is the sort who would place ALL his scumbuddies as neutral or protown in his big analysis post. It will be worth going back over that post in the next couple of days.

Yos attacks MoS.

MoS analyzes everyone

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 201#493201
OK, actually only 4 people, but he SAID everyone.
He was right that CTD was town, may or may not be right that Dead Rikimaru was scum, Der Hammer was a lurker, and may or may not be right that Fritz is scum. This looks like a decent list- but only because he lists two people as scum who are alive and are currently under varying levels of suspicion.

PJ calls out an SV slip (I am comfortable at this point in saying it was indeed a slip!). Lowell backs his play and also adds a vote on MoS and a pro-town read for Glork and me. MoS only responds (and not really helpfully at all) to the vote on him. MoS occasionally slips into this fatalistic "I'm gonna die and then you'll know it was scum attacking me" phase, which annoys me but I can't necessarily classify as scum- it's not like it's designed to put off lynches on him, more likely to annoy people into voting him IMO. Also, as we are all aware, there was a general malaise setting in as day 3 dragged on and we waited for the king (and then replacement king) to do something.

More analysis by MOS

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 743#498743
Skips Glork, PJ, ZIndy, Yos and pablito (now Thesp).
Reads KScope as neutral, Lowell as town, Mert as needing replacement (which had happened by then, hi!), same for Nightson, neutral to Olio, still feels Phoebus is "genuine", Samus needs replacement.

This is exceedingly useless stuff.

MoS consistently flags that Dead Rikimaru is the top of his scum list throughout day 3.

After DR's alleged "analysis" post, MoS slags it off (correctly) for not being an analysis post, just regurgitating what people said.

Top 3 scum list at end of day: DR, LL (who we now know is town), PJ- doesn't like how PJ's kingship ended. Once again a reasonably inauspicious list, although I can't say I liked how PJ's kingship ended either... it's mostly PJ's play since day 1 that's got him in my good books.


Will continue this tomorrow. The general theme, though, is much as I often disagree with his scum list choices- a point which continues up to the present- on my current read of the game I find MoS to be town, both in who he argues with and how he does it. This has the potential to change based on people dying and coming up with alignments I don't expect. I definitely do not support executing MoS before Yos (or before Fritz, or a couple of others for that matter).

[RafK]

MoS part two. You've already got my conclusions, so I will be brief.

Day 4 (Yosarian's day of kingship):

MoS proposes mnowax as the execution and

opposes the execution of SV

. He is consistent on this theme throughout. He is also consistent about pressing for the execution of Smashy (the replacement for DR, whom MoS had been against previously)

As I said in the first half, I don't really agree with MoS' opinions very much on who's scummy. That said, I'm under no illusions that townies will always be correct about who they choose to attack. It is not inconsistent for MoS to propose mnowax for execution and then push that: it's people who took advantage of the wagon MoS started that I'm suspicious of.

He advises against the execution of Shanba (who turned out to be the kingmaker!).

Tries to link Battle Mage and VR to Smashy coming up scum.

Generally whacks at mnowax, and also attacks me for coming to mnowax's defense :rolleyes: And generally accuses anyone against the mnowax lynch of being a scum :rolleyes:
Ironically, part of my "misguided town" read on MoS is that despite the fact that this part of his rationale for being anti-me has turned out to be wrong, he's persisted with a general anti-me vibe. Over time I have come to realise that it's usually townies who do that. Scum are more likely to try and change tunes because they're completely aware that their case has become publically baseless.


Day 5 (Zindy's kingship) MoS plumps for Fritzler and Battle Mage (who was ironically replaced by mnowax). Now admits he could see SV as scum.

MoS badgers mnowax to try and legitimise his error of day 4

:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 926#590926

Here's some things to get you started actually contributing:

What do you think of Spectrumvoid, Yosarian2, Zindaras, Fritzler, and RafK, individually?

Why do you think Zindaras was elected King?

Do you think there is a connection between SV and Yos2?

What do you think of petroleumjelly's analysis's of everyone so far?

Why do you think mnowax1 completely failed to defend himself against legitimate points brought up against him that explained why he was scum?

(Emphasis mine).

Way to try and shift the blame onto the guy who got lynched. I don't like that tactic AT ALL, and it's one of the points of doubt for me in my general outlook on MoS (along with the way he has buddied up to Yosarian).

MoS then has to answer some suspicion of himself again, which is just a repetition of earlier MoS attacks and defenses.

Throws a bit of suspicion lowell's way.

Agrees with Yos in one of the little spats between Yos and I.

Thesp then PBPA's MoS and MoS responds

: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 127#598127
As with the pooky review, this is something I need to look at in greater depth than "skim" to get a good feel for.

MoS then returns to Fritzler attack and a VR "PBPA"; his VR "PBPA" is noteworthy as being about as analysis-free as the Dead Rikimaru "analysis" MoS attacked so well. Finds VR to be pro-town.

More Thesp v MoS (here's yet another person who's alignment will affect what I think about MoS).

MoS then attacks VR a bit for defending Dead Rikimaru/whoever his current replacement is- a reversal of earlier attitudes, but based only on new posts by VR so that's consistent- and to say Fritz is his choice for lynch ahead of SV, who he finds more likely to be scum than VR (which doesn't seem exactly the order you'd expect from his earlier posts, but is not unimaginable either).

Keeps asking other people questions about what they think about other people. I feel this is strongly pro-town play, encouraging people to commit to positions, provided that the questioner also gives opinions. MoS has been, so I read this as townie play.

MoS' post 191: MoS comes around on SV instead of Fritz and agrees with the arguments run by me and others that the Fritz wagon seemed like the previous day's mnowax wagon. He sticks by this SV-ahead-of-Fritz choice for the remainder of the day. Knowing if he was choosing scum over town or scum over 2nd scum will make a difference.

Also starts his push on Toaster Strudel before the end of this day.

Today: MoS has kind of angled back towards being with Yos again. Other than that, he did his assignment here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 922#647922 Finds TS to be scum (no shock there). Leans townie on Cavane. Otherwise has dueled a bit with TS. I can certainly buy TS as scum so this is not a bad sign for me on MoS.


While there's been bad signs here and there for MoS in the last couple of days of his play, it's not enough overall to overcome my feeling he's probably a townie who's made some mistakes.

[RafK]

I largely agree with that analysis of ThAdmiral... I didn't have a scummy feel on his predecessors but have had for him. Tossing up the idea that replacement scum are more likely to gravitate towards agreeing with the ones who've been in longer, and thus a replacement who comes in and moves closer to scum playes than their predesccsor was would be a strong scum sign. ThAdmiral definitely moved closer to SV than his predecessors were, and if Yos comes up scum as well I would regard that as more or less conclusive for ThAdmiral.

The most interesting post for me of ThAdmiral's predescessors is SC voting for Pooky, Fritz and MoS.

[RafK]

I don't have night choices so everything is under control.

Is it wrong to say that I find this post a bit scummy? Seems to be trying to get some townie mileage out of his departure by saying he doesn't have a night choice, while also giving away that he's not Kingmaker (which a townie should not have done at this stage, IMO, certainly not so casually).

At any rate, if he's still with us in 2.5 weeks and I'm still here to ask, I'll ask him about it then.

[RafK]

With regards to the preference, I should note that's only my preference out of the two people I was asked to analyze. My actual execution preference remains Yos.

[RafK]

"Plays the man, not the ball" means that he attacked the person (SC in that case) rather than responding to the argument.

I was up front that my opinion on MoS (and to a lesser extent, Fritz) depends on my view of other people. My view of VitaminR likewise depends on my view of other people.

The fact that Yosarian2 is not on your LoE, that no reason has been given for this absence and that your http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 426#678426 frankly appears to be designed to mislead- it's very neat but doesn't accurately represent anyone's actual views for execution- is of extreme concern.

vote Yosarian2

incidentally. I'd kind of become MoS there, not bothering to actually vote.

This "analyze two other people" exercise has obliterated all other discussion for the last month, but it doesn't mean all other discussion before the last month is forgotten.

You've accumulated a lot of townie points with me by joining the campaign against SV early and consistently, but this day is sapping them much as my reading of your day 1 kingship did- you've put off and put off giving final opinions and establishing an LoE, the deadline was announced weeks ago and now the LoE finally comes in, explanation-free and Yos-free. This is looking eerily reminscent of the way day 1 played out, with the Rosso execution. Can but hope my earlier belief you were town is correct, that you do have good reasons, and that you do execute a scum- it's not like Yos is the only one out there, after all.

[RafK]

This almost makes me want to find you and

slap

you. I've put a hell of a lot of effort into this game – certainly more than I think this game deserves. I didn't ask to be King, and in fact, I would rather that I was not. I was made King at a

very

inconvenient time for me. I was on

vacation

in Canada three weeks ago. This last week I was gone at

Thespival

. That is two weeks I was away without time to put towards this game. During the one week in between those two absences, I made sure to finish my assignment. Since coming back, I've had to spend a half day at the hospital getting my leg looked for what is apparently a spider bite, and I've been very up-front about this. And you are accusing

me

of "stalling"? I asked people to do their assignments on

June 21st

,

one month ago today

, and there are

still

people who have not done it.

Sure. Nonetheless, you've set up a position where you get to do your execution with almost no time for anyone to respond. Exactly like day 1. You knew you had vacation coming up. And I inherently distrust appeals to emotions, too, especially from players that have reputations as fountains of reason.

So my list is Yos-free? Have you been

reading

my posts? I've reread Yos2 at least twice in this game to my recollection, and both times, he did not look like somebody I thought would turn up scum. In other words,

I

think he is town.

You have said this before, but I don't know understand why.

And I

will not

execute somebody I think is town. Period.

Sure.

It's not my job to execute the person

you

have been going after all game.

It's not my job to just accept your LOE if I don't agree with it, or to accept you as town if you don't do what I think a townie should do.

How do you think I would "look" if I say I think Yos2 is town practically all game, then "last minute" I decide to add him to the list because

you

want me to, then I execute him and he turns up town? Have you even bothered to

think

of that?

1) I don't think he'll turn up town. I don't think there's a chance. And no, I wouldn't think less of you if you executed Yos and turned up town. I said a couple of days ago that the battle lines have been drawn- no-one's being killed which would give away which "side" is scum, until Zindaras executed SV. I accepted that if SV or Yos died and came up town, I would be a very likely execution target.

Considering "what will happen if I execute him and he comes up town?" is dangerous. One of my main issues with the Yos kingship was that he did not execute anyone who he'd been attacking previously, who's death and reveal as town would have made him look bad. He took a target of convenience, and you are drifitng in that direction.

Does that answer your question?

]It seems to me that no matter I do,

if

Yos2 is indeed town, putting him on the list and executing him damns me in your eyes (or at least I would assume this much), putting him on the list and

not

executing him damns me, and

not

putting him on the list damns me. If you're going to think that way, there's something wrong with your thinking and it needs to be altered.

That's an attempt to paint a false dischotomy on me. I never said you executing Yos and him coming up town would damn you in my eyes, and you know it.



[quote="PJ]

1.) ThAdmiral, Toaster Strudel, and mnowax2 were added because all three of them were the preferred execution by all six people analyzing them.

[/quote]

I'll stop you there. This is the thing bugging me most.

All of these "preferred" executions were based on comparisons of two people. Comparisons YOU set. If you had set me to compare Zindaras to Lowell, and I said Zindaras was the towniest, that would make me look like I preferred a Lowell execution. And the failures by one or two people to do any comparisons at all affected it too, anyone who wasn't analyzed couldn't be preferred by two people!

Your use of the results of your "study" this way is extremely dodgy. And you must know that.

I can't say I believe any of ThAdmiral, TS and mnowax2 are horrible choices (or Fritz, for that matter- you can tell that one from my own analysis of Fritz). But this method of selection is terrible, despite the result.

3.) VitaminR is the person I am

personally

most suspicious of, and this should be clear from my posts throughout the game. You are more than free to read them, because I'm not going to repeat them.

We'll agree to disagree there, but it's a natural consequence of a view of the game that sees Yos as town I guess.

[RafK]

PJ: Putting it in coloured writing doesn't make it any less putting words in my mouth. You're blatantly straw-manning. Going off on a major attack on something I haven't done- and for the record, I have no idea how *I* would justify attacking you for executing Yos, or even why I would want to. So that's a pretty big strawman.

Town or scum, calm the hell down, and quit with the appeals to emotion.

And for the record, I still think you have created a rush here. I don't think it was clear at all until your LoE went up that VR was your likely execution- and if he turns out to be Kingmaker I hope like buggery he gets to the thread in the next few hours before you pull the trigger. If you're town- and I hope you are, because you being scum and executing a townie today makes this a real mountain to climb to win- then hopefully you'll take on board that your play in twice pushing all the way to deadline for your final LOE is not good. If you're scum, then my comments will hopefully keep you honest a bit and ensure you don't get a completely scrutiny-free ride. Win-win.

[RafK]

Oh, you have got to be kidding me. SV is executed and comes up scum, VitaminR is executed and comes up town, and the kingmaker manages to reappoint YOS as king? This is where the format sucks... you can do everything you can to win, and the kingmaker screws it up. I thought I was a 100% shot to be king today unless the scum for some reason didn't kill Zindy.

Yos: Execute yourself kthx.

I would say "on the off chance you're actually town, execute PJ for that performance", but honestly, if you're town, there's no reason why a scum PJ wouldn't have executed you. PJ scum only makes sense with you scum.

On the off chance you're actually town, I guess execute ThAdmiral or Thesp or Fritzler or TS. But even then, they're my likelies (along with PJ) for the scum positions besides Yos-scum. So if you're town, do whatever you like. If you're scum, this is probably LYLO and you'll just execute me or whatever other townie for the win :/ Hopefully the mod balanced this with one less scum than I expected due to the mountainous nature of the game, but :/

Man, I cannot believe Yosarian of all people was made King again.

[RafK]

First you think I'm scum because I change my mind and decide VitimanR isn't a good execution choice, now you think I'm scum because I was right about that?

Um, you were the one campagining in a scummy way for Phoebus/VR to be summarily executed and I was the one opposing that. Then when you had the opportunity to execute him, you instead executed another townie whom had been the subject of less argument. You demonstrated that you were insincere about Phoebus, and you still executed a townie. This is not actually a point in your favour.

From the fact that you didn't insta-execute I take it either we aren't in LYLO or you aren't scum or you're just slow-playing this. Well, the first two at least are good signs.

[RafK]

I'll see what I can come up with for a re-read "assuming you are town", since obviously there's not a lot of point in trying to get you to execute yourself and unlike the last time you were king, this could be LYLO. In the meantime, go prod other people for opinions. Lurking is damn annoying.

[RafK]

mnowax is hard to read, as is his predecessor battle mage, because they're both terrible all the time. I don't read this version of mnowax any different to the previous version, and the previous version was town. As such, the best I can do is to look at Smashy and DR, and DR was a terminal lurker and Smashy... I'm not extremely fond of Smashy's kingship, but it was a nasty position to replace into and I don't think the finish was any worse than the Yos or PJ kingships.

It's not inconceivable that mnowax is scum- he's just in my view not the most likely candidate, just because everyone in the role has been a terminal lurker or just bad, which makes it hard to pick. I also really don't like it that there was such a big push on mnowax right after he got lynched, it stunk of a "hey, here's the easy target again!" thing. As such, if I had to stake the game on one person besides Yos being scum, I couldn't really say mnowax.

It's a tough spot at the moment, though. There's few people who have been "obviously" townie. If I was kingmaker and couldn't pick myself, my king choices for tomorrow at this point in time would probably be out of Lowell, Cavane and MoS. And even that depends on my anti-Yos worldview to some extent, so if Yos breaks the mould today even that's in question.

I think one of the things I really need to do is work out why CES was killed. It made no sense to me at the time. Another "no information" kill? Sure, but there's plenty of available people for that who were even less involved in the play and they can't all be scum. It really only makes sense to kill people who you fear and whose death won't give away information. The scum obviously understand that- Glork and Zindy died the night they could have become king again (e.g. a threat), not earlier, and they'd already proven themselves townie so it wasn't giving away information to kill them. This suggests to me that the scum were afraid of CES as king (which was definitely a possibility given that the kingmaker elected Yos).

Nothing so far in this game has suggested to me that the scum are worried about setting up WIFOM stuff based upon their kills. No-one's really tried to run that kind of thing at all. So let's see where it leads.

CES' last substantive post had gone back on his earlier VR attack. He had suggested Fritzler could be scum. He was mildly critical of Yos in the little argument where Yos attacked Lowell for barning me but didn't attack ThAdmiral for barning him.... said he saw where Yos was coming from but thought he should have been more critical of ThAdmiral. He also asked for Zindy to kill mnowax. He didn't speak much at all that day, so the suggestion would seem to be either that he was killed as a "no information" thing or that it was to protect Fritzler or mnowax... however, since he didn't mention the SV wagon at all, there was no special reason to assume that CES would be seen positively by the kingmaker and become king.

The previous day (Yos kingship) CES had favoured a MoS execution, although he didn't mention it the next day at all. And again, no special reason to think CES would even become king, let alone follow up against MoS.

OK, so figuring out why CES was killed didn't get too far, unless someone's seeing something I'm missing.

[RafK]

I have re-read thesp and some of pablito. I really, really dislike some of pablito's stuff during Yos' kingship (attacking VR, defending SV, attacking mnowax the first and putting it on MoS, although MoS also took responsibility for that wagon). However, while there's a couple of Thesp posts which COULD be scummy: for ecample saying Yos argument against Lowell was excellent but also that Lowell was probably town, might have been having it both ways. Some unexplained FOS when he first came in, which are useless except for pointing at later as evidence you were suspicious of someone.

But overall, I can't nail Thesp as really scummy. In particular, faced with Zindaras' LoE, while he disliked the LoE and campaigned hard for MoS to be added and even attacked Zindy... he put SV as scummiest and opposed a VR execution. The SV stuff could be a bus, faced with the knowledge he had minimal effect on the execution and might as well look good (it's not like he spent much time arguing in favour of it, he attacked MoS non-stop), but I don't see any particular reason for strongly opposiing a VR execution like that in circumstances where it could have still happened.

Despite his predecessor, and despite his non-stop attack on MoS (who I currently lean to town on) I can't really stick Thesp as a high candidate at this time. Still watching, though.

[RafK]

Oh, and before I forget.

I have no idea why I thought this would be LYLO. I think I had it in my head from skimming KM1 recently that the "5 misexecutions = game over" thing was in the design, but this is a different size game. Even if it's 6 scum out of 24 players, we'd be down to 4 out of 12 today. And due to being mountainous it might be 5 scum out of 24, being 3 out of 12 today. There would have had to be 7 scum to start with and 5 still alive to be LYLO today, and I don't consider that likely.

So anything I said which revolved around it being LYLO today, disregard.

[RafK]

I had planned on making my LoE in the week between my two vacations (to Canada and Thespival), but five or so people still had not finished their assignments by that time,

so I was forced to simply to do my own assignments and prod those that did not finish

. When I came back people still had not finished. I made a new LoE hoping there would be discussion, but it ended up just being me and RafK talking for about three days and nobody else doing anything. I don't know what miracles you expect out of me, but I thought I went beyond what is reasonable in trying to get people back into a long and boring game.

No-one forced you to do anything.

People's failure to do their assignments (which I'd argue you could have expected in any game, let alone one as lurkery as this) gave you an excuse to put off making your own LoE, but you knew the deadline well in advance and CHOSE to put it off due to people not doing their assignments. You were not FORCED.

I find it interesting that Yosarian is looking at you, though.

Yos, if you're town and PJ is scum, why didn't PJ take advantage of the fact that SV had come up scum to execute you instead of stretching the day out forever and then deadline executing VR and making himself look bad?

[RafK]

Zindy was killed for executing SV, just as Glork was killed for executing Pooky. It didn't take PJ's task to figure out that people were generally pro-Zindy.

My issue with PJ's assignments remains that he had people analyze 2 people (of PJ's choice), then acted as if people wanted to execute whichever of the two they found to be scummier. I don't think they defined very much at all, and it's not as if they were a factor in PJ's execution.

I feel that PJ is trying to have it both ways on the VR execution. Either it was clear all along that PJ was going to execute VR (in which case all the rigmarole about analyzing other people and using the LoE as a threat to get people analyzing was pointless) or else PJ's intent was kept hidden so that other potential scum still felt threatened (in which case VR didn't know well in advance that he was going to be executed and didn't have the chance to make a final defence). Obviously I think the second one is what actually happened. For someone who has been repeatedly apologetic about the way he executed Rosso, it is beyond belief to me that a town PJ would pull a similar thing with VR- announcing intent to execute him way too late for VR to defend himself. Obviously VR couldn't make a final plea for his life before PJ has even made a final LoE!

I begrudge Yos one point here- his scenario for scum PJ with a town Yos is believable. Their alignments are not necessarily the same.

[RafK]

This is getting really stupid.

RafK - did

Glork

let Pooky make a "final defense"? Did Dead Rikimaru / Smashy let LuckayLuck make a "final defense"? Did Yos2 let mnowax have a "final defense"? Pretty much the only person who has gotten a "final defense" was spectrumvoid, and she was scum.

This is gross misrepresentation. Every king other than you (even Yos) has set down a final LoE with sufficient time for the final nominees to say stuff and for people to give opinions.

It's pretty bad when you're reduced to trying to say Glork didn't give Pooky and Yos time to be heard. Everyone and their dog had time to comment on that one before the Glorking occurred (and a fair bit of information surfaced as a result).

If I had been right about VitR, I very much doubt you would give a rats ass whether or not I gave VitaminR a "final defense".

No. If you'd been right you would have been forgiven, not vindicated. I made it clear before the execution even went through what I thought of your play. You're once again attempting to put words in my mouth. But hey, this time you're not doing it in large coloured letters, that's an improvement.

[RafK]

I think a good way to run would have been not considering VR to be scum

But seriously, in circumstances in which you are town and seriously believe VR to be scum and Yos to be town and you know ahead of time when you're going on vacation and when the deadline is (true), I think the only fair thing to do is state before you go away "This is my LoE. No-one other than people on this LoE will be lynched. Talk about this while I am on vacation. I might execute any of the people on this list once I come back. If you are on the LoE, consider this your final warning."

Was that so hard?

My current point is that pretty much nobody has been: "I'm thinking about executing X, so I'll give them a week to respond."

My current point is that pretty much everyone has put down an LoE they called final and allowed time for discussion on it. Glork put down an LoE of Yos, Pooky and two others. He then withdrew the two others. He temporarily had Mert in too but pulled him. He said he was definitely going to execute one of Yos and Pooky. Everyone was aware he was going to execute Yos or Pooky and had a chance to give their opinion on those guys as candidates. That's townie, because it's making people commit to opinions and arguments about the execution. Every other king has done something similar.

You made all but members of the town talk about anyone but VR for over a month, then returned from vacation and named a 5 person LoE, then a day or two from deadline said that VR was the guy. Not only does that limit VR's opportunity to defend himself, it means that the town by and large does not spend very much time talking about what they think of a VR execution. And if VR (or anyone else) does sense which way the wind is blowing before you say it explicitly, you get to accuse them of being over-defensive.

You keep relying on this thing that just because you were suspicious of VR for days, everyone should have assumed you were going to execute him. But if everyone executed whoever they'd spent the previous few days being suspicious of, Yos would have executed VR days ago :ninja: People do change their minds, and

it seemed like the whole point of your mass analysis assignment was to consider EVERYONE. Giving out that assignment didn't send the message that you already had only one target in mind.

[RafK]

EBWODP: Second last paragraph above should start "You made all but 2 members of the town talk about anyone but VR for over a month,"

[RafK]

I've also given plenty of time for people to give opinions, and I was rather under the impression that

everybody kinda knew

I was primarily suspicious of VitaminR. If you haven't gotten that from my posts you haven't been reading them very carefully. VitaminR responded to arguments directly from me

multiple times

- so as far as I'm concerned, he had his "last words and attempts at explanation", and I read them and still didn't think he was town.

If I made it clear I was pretty much focusing on one person, I doubt the town would have bothered to discuss much of anything. We would likely have gotten comments like "It doesn't matter what I say, because the King already knows who he's going to execute". By not making it an open fact that I was considering executing VitaminR, people had an

incentive

to actually read back into the game instead of sitting around waiting for something to happen.

8)

I think the above adequately demonstrates how PJ is trying to have it both ways here.

[RafK]

I like it that you aren't trying to insinuate that I'm lying or scum, just frustrating

We've reached the end of this line of questioning, obviously. We have established exactly what it is you were doing. You want people to believe that you didn't deliberately avoid debate of the VR execution. I believe that the facts demonstrate that you did. I'm obviously not going to get you to admit that you're scum. It's now up to other people to decide what they think you did.

[RafK]

Not really. Unless you mean he's a bit too sure that you're a wrong townie rather than a evil scum? But I haven't really noticed MoS expressing a view that you're scum (open to correction if this is incorrect), so it wouldn't be inconsistent.

[RafK]

Fascinating as it is to keep bashing our heads on the wall of "Yos and PJ are evil scumz0rz together", I have a feeling Yos isn't going to execute himself or his most favourite scum buddy, which makes this continued line of argument a bit pointless for the remainder of the day.

As such, I would like Yos to front up his suspect/s and give us something to chew over here.

[RafK]

MoS, if the scum were into that kind of tactic, they could have killed me on any number of occasions.

I'm more worried of the possibility of a scum KScope talking up his anti-Yosness to become king when Yos executes a townie than a town KScope being "silenced" before he can make his case on Yos tbh.

[RafK]

*rubs temples*

RafK, you're post is assuming that:

1.) Yos2 will execute a townie;

I suppose it's possible he'll bus someone- I'd strongly consider it in his situation, actually.

2.) That the Kingmaker shares K-Scope's sentiments, which is rather unlikely seeing as... y'know... both myself and Yossy have been made Kings the last two days in a row.

Well, for one: if Yos executes another townie perhaps our kingmaker will wake the hell up.

For two: I would have made you king yesterday myself, or at least had you as a choice. I expected either you or me to wake up as king that morning.

For three: thanks for confirming for me even more that you consider yourself and Yos to be together.

[RafK]

Add to list of execution:
Fritzer
Toaster Strudel
ThAdmiral
mnowax2
Cavane

Or to put it another way:

Add to list of execution:
Almost half the remaining players in the game

Or to put it another way again:

Hedging my bets something massive here.

I'm not sure that a list that long will help focus discussion at all. Who're you actually looking at to execute, Yos?

[RafK]

I haven't really seen much reason to doubt myself. I find it fairly damning as the game wears on that you don't doubt yourself and PJ doesn't doubt you either. Anyone would think that when you tried to run the argument that you'd been more help to the town than me, you'd actually done anything in the entire game to help the town and there was, you know, reason to back you.

[RafK]

Oh, so lucky, you lived that time. If I had gotten a 6, you would now be dead.

Oh, the drama.

[RafK]

I strongly oppose an execution of any player not named "Cavane".

His posts reek of scumminess. His most recent post epitomizes this - he's hedging his bets allover the place, and throwing around suspicion like it's candy. His reaction to the PJ wishy-washiness earlier is exactly how I would expect scum to react - treating the symptom instead of the underlying problem.

Cavane should die.

I am not named "Cavane". What happened?

^^

Thesp has been incredibly single-minded about MoS, so this is worth an explanation.

[RafK]

Oh, and a warning- I have a major dentist appointment on the 29th Australian time (so the night of the 28th into the early morning of the 29th) and will probably not be around that day. It probably isn't going to matter, seeing as I'm not on the LoE and I sense Yos might even shoot before the deadline. But please don't rely on me being around much/at all for about 36 hours leading up to the deadline.

[RafK]

I am thinking of my survival due to the people i have replaced have made me look So scummy, that i think it is a minor miracle that i haven't died yet. I think that Yos is scum, due to the fact ( and i know i am going to getexecuted for this one) that i am an easy execution for any pro town player acting as king.

Wait, what? So you think I'm not pro-town because I haven't executed you yet? I don't understand what you're trying to say here.

Either he just claimed scum or he meant to say he's an easy execution for any pro-scum player acting as king but screwed it up. One or the other.

[RafK]

mnowax's logic is terrible, but he does have one point- IF he is town and Yos is scum, Yos executing mnowax would be the best realistic outcome from a scum kingship from a town point of view (because mnowax is a high probability to get executed by a town king). The other guy for whom that is true (if he is town and Yos is scum) is Fritzler.

[RafK]

So- Yos executed an assassin. But more to the point (because bussing was certainly a viable tactic) he executed an assassin who probably wasn't in the top few suspicious people. So either Yos is an especially ballsy busser, or he isn't scum to begin with.

Given that we now have 2 known scum and Yosarian is not top suspect anymore, I would appreciate:

- Reasons for votes.

- People taking a look back through this monster thread to see what KScope has been up to.

Oh, and one other thing, and for this I really need the help of the people who've been in the game the longest because the posts were lost to the server crashes.

KScope was bird1111. I had been under the impression that Pooky had been the main mover of the bird1111 "nutkicking" wagon, which would make it a scum putting attention onto a scum on a day with a town king (Glork). Is that correct, or did Pooky just join in and someone else started it? It's really frustrating now to not have that wagon available for review.

[RafK]

EBWODP: Obviously we now have *3* known scum. I blame toothache.

[RafK]

Fritzler is certainly not off my radar, at least until I've had an opportunity to review KScope's posts more.

I agree with Yos that mnowax is unlikely to be scum, though. I don't think he'd plan to throw himself under a bus to make another scum look good, and if he did (got nutkicked into it, maybe?) then I'd expect it to be a bit more obvious than that. Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit, but I doubt it.

Consider the informal LoE to be ThAdmiral, TS and Fritz, but with room to grow. My worry with ThAdmiral is mostly that I had him down as scum WITH YOS, and given that I'm having to re-evaluate stuff here I'm a bit leery about insta-executing someone I found scummy on the basis that he was a Yos supporter.

[RafK]

RafK, what do you think about Cavane?

Very under the radar.

[RafK]

What do you think of DR/smashy/BM/second coming of mnowax, TS?

[RafK]

I think we can make 10 more posts in 5 days. I can always spam, I guess.

Much as I did every day but his king day, I find mysellf liking PJ's review process a great deal (conclusions? Maybe, because I wouldn't necessarily have followed that to a sole Fritzler vote. But the process is strong, which it wasn't for the Phoebus/VR execution or the events leading up to that- in hindsight, me being right about Phoebus and SV, Yos being wrong about Phoebus and SV and PJ being right about SV but wrong about phoebus has been been the defining conflict for how we all saw each other, and it was only Yos breaking the pattern by executing KScope that has let us cut through that for the time being.

Other than that, the last page and a half have been an orgy of voting in which someone must be bussing someone. I need to shake the ring of votes around a bit and see if it breaks somewhere.

[RafK]

I'm pretty sure I already gave an unofficial LoE of sorts. If I'm misremembering, it's ThAdmiral, Fritz and TS.

I've had an eye infection the last few days and still have it, which played merry hell with my plans to do a re-read in several mafia games I'm in, what with weekends being my big chance to do re-reads :/

[RafK]

Got some antibiotic eyedrops last night and it's starting to clear up. Apologies for the delay. THis isn't really how I wanted my kingship to be (admittedly, until recently I wanted my kingship to require one post and two words).

[RafK]

Couldn't someone have made me kingmaker on the previous day, when I had time for this game? I take back everything I said about PJ yesterday, because *ugh* Re-reading 118 pages to re-do my entire world view of the game after Yos: a) executed a scum and b) not even a scum who was in line for an inertia execution is too much like hard work, even for me. Nonetheless, I have done a little.

I would execute ThAdmiral on the spot- he's not exactly being responsive to questions here- except that ThAdmiral was my major suspect as second banana to Yos, so of course I feel that shouldn't necessarily apply now that my view of Yos has changed.

I would execute Yos on the spot and go with my gut- after all, his move was BRILLIANT as a bus in a game with no cop- but I'm afraid that if my gut is wrong that moves pretty much screws the pooch for the town (especially if I get executed in response, since it's a 2-goal turnaround so to speak).

I would execute TS on the spot for annoying me so often in this game without really contributing.

I would execute MoS for being the guy whom I thought was town at least in part because I thought Yos was scum, so turnabout is fair play. This is probably my most "logical" execution choice. Also, Thesp had it in for him and Thesp seems to have been on the right track (and got killed; I always feel that scum do kill people who are threats, and then say it's WIFOM to say that... I know that as scum, I certainly make a habit of trying to nightkill people who are on to me, if I have that luxury available).

I could also just execute Fritz on the basis that someone's gonna do it!

Everyone named above, assume you're going to get it and you're begging for your life. Yes, this is totally last minute and I yelled at PJ for doing the same thing, I'm a horrible person.

Deadline extension by any chance due to the fact that my re-read was delayed a week by eye infection?

[RafK]

Excellent Questions for those on the block. Failure to answer will not go well. Answering questions for other people will not go well. Answer your own question, please.

ThAdmiral

- what have you done in this game to help the town?

Yos

- in hindsight, why did you protect spectrumvoid?

TS

- if you were king tomorrow, and without seeing the outcome of today's execution, what are the two words you would use in your kingship?

MoS

- why was Thesp wrong about you for so many days on end?

Fritz

- which one of the other 4 should I execute? And in 15 words or less, why?

[RafK]

MoS- lovely reaction, thanks for participating. You have very nearly talked me into executing you with that stellar round of OMGUS and deflection and misrepresentation, with all the hallmarks of a scum who thought he was safe and is suddenly paddling furiously for his life.

My question to you was "why was Thesp wrong about you?" (not "why was Thesp on the right track?" or whatever else you seemed to be talking about there) which was effectively the same question I asked ThAdmiral, but phrased differently. It boils down to "what have you done that shows you're town?". You didn't answer that at all. And to think I just wanted to see what you'd say under pressure

Not executing Yos (similarly just wanted to see what he'd say under pressure, and if not entirely convinced, he at least gave a consistent explanation of why he didn't go for SV).

Still hating TS' attitude. Still finding Fritzler and ThAdmiral to be as previously described.

[RafK]

[quote=RafK]My question to you was "why was Thesp wrong about you?" (not "why was Thesp on the right track?" or whatever else you seemed to be talking about there) which was effectively the same question I asked ThAdmiral, but phrased differently.

It boils down to "what have you done that shows you're town?".

[/quote]

[quote=MoS]My answer to your question was in the second paragraph. Thesp completely read me wrong, and I don't know how he did it, but he did. [/quote]

Try again. Or it really will be you.

Otherwise it's going to be Fritzler- I've come to the conclusion that he's reverse-psychologying (and it has kind of been working), and honestly if I'm going to make a choice on the basis of who has done the least pro-town stuff, he's definitely up there (so is ThAdmiral, but as I said, I think ThAdmiral has a reprieve from me on the day purely because I previously had him as scum due to interaction with Yos).

[RafK]

I've been asking very nicely WHAT YOU HAVE DONE THAT MAKES YOU TOWN.

Not your arguments against Thesp. Not "show us your best panicked freak-out". I am asking you to justify what pro-town stuff you have done in this game. And you haven't got very long.

[RafK]

I think we covered why we didn't think mnowax was scum (or PJ did and I nodded along).

Thankyou for answering, MOS. Was that so hard?

Since you did it in generalities rather than specifics I'm still not really sure about you (particularly given all the OMGUS bluster), but I simply don't feel it's worth the risk of executing you without more, given that I did have you as town up until now, and right now I haven't had the time to look for more. You are completely still in my firing line, though.

As I've said already, Fritz has done extremely little for the town and seems to be pretty much relying on reverse psychology to avoid an execution at this point. My thoughts on Fritz prior to today are well documented, since he was one of my two assignments from PJ yesterday.

execute Fritzler

[RafK]

I couldn't have found a scum on the last day if you'd given me 3 goes. It could have been all over much sooner

Ironically, had I been made King on the day Yos was made king for the second time, we still would have executed a scum and we still would have lost anyway, probably. I was actually planning on executing PJ before Yos on the grounds that I was convinced PJ and Yos were scum together and that someone else could execute Yos but no-one else would have the balls to execute PJ. But If I'd done that, Yos would have been executed the next day 100% and we'd probably lose anyway.

PJ's bussing of SV was masterfully done, it was pretty much the only thing keeping me off his back for his first day as king when I replaced in, and it kept him clear right up to the point that he pulled a blatant scumjob in his second kingship (and incidentally, forever blew his credibility if he tries that kind of out-of-game whining again to weasel out of scummy actions... I KNEW it was over the top! Grrr!). But then he got saved by his "ties" to Yos and Yos finally proving himself, and grrrr.

Also a bit miffed that mnowax replaced in as scum. I really hate mods using replacing with people who've been killed earlier in the same game (although I'm grateful to EVERYONE who replaced into this behemoth late, I'm sure it wasn't easy to find people!), and especially changing sides with the replacement, and really subconsciously always had him as a useless townie throughout because of his first performance.

Never played a mountainous before. Probably would again, though maybe give me until 2008 to recover from this one.

Finally, my standard town record held true again. Absolutely brilliant with picking out a scum as soon as I enter a game and running them into the ground. Absolutely useless after that

Thanks for playing everyone, and now I'm out of this and Stargate and only in 2 games on MTGS, I might even signup for a new game here for the first time in a while

[RafK]

I'm shocked anybody is surprised by Fritz's play as a hero. Heck, I'm shocked nobody really thought about who a hypothetical hero would be.

Having skimmed KM1, I didn't assume there would be a hero, or at least that if there was one he might not know it.

That there WAS a hero but that that was only known to the scum actually made this worse than strictly mountainous. The hero role was a liability if the person gave any hero tells at all, since the scum would know who not to execute but the town wouldn't (even if the hero claimed, he wouldn't necessarily be believed by the town).

Fritz played it abominably, even given that he didn't know that the scum knew about him. It makes sense for a hero to try and draw an execution from scum, but Fritz seemed to be trying to draw an execution from anyone at all. And since the scum knew to watch for a hero, he just had a huge beacon on him saying "SCUM DON'T TOUCH ME, BUT TRY TO GET TOWN KINGS TO OFF ME".

[RafK]

Well done, scum. Wow, there sure were a lot of you.

Particular kudos to petroleumjelly and Yosarian2, both of whom payed exceedingly well for their sides. I also thought Pablito did exceedingly well, which allowed me a latitude of freedom I enjoyed.

I am surprised that RafK didn't kill Cavane, whom I thought was definitely scum.

Cavane really did slip entirely beneath my radar. I really couldn't have hit a scum on that day if you'd given me 3 goes.

I agree with the kudos to PJ, but obviously not so much for Yos (although he redeemed himself a bit at the end). Defending SV and helping the scum set up guys like Phoebus and LL and the first mnowax = sad panda time. Not that Yos was anywhere near the worst townie in the game, or that I was much better, but seriously. I think for the town Zindy and of course Glork are the only ones to be able to really hold their heads up on this one.