Kingmaker II-Game Over

RafK · Post Post #2450 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:55 pm

So silly that I'm the only one suspicious of Yos.

Oh, wait.

You're welcome to disagree with me as to whether you think he's scum, but to say it's silly to be suspicious of him = silly itself. There's very obviously legit reasons to suspect him, regardless of what you think of the strength of the case.

Thok · Post Post #2451 (ISO) » Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:58 pm

Official vote count

King petroleumjelly (0):

Cavane (0):
Fritzler (3):
KaleiÐoscøpe (0): mnowax, Fritzler
Lowell (0): Yosarian2, mnowax
Mastermind of Sin (0):
mnowax (3): Fritzler, Yosarian2, VitaminR
RafK (0):
ThAdmiral (0): mnowax, VitaminR, Fritzler
Thesp (0):
Toaster Strudel (0):
VitaminR (2):
Yosarian2 (3):
Zindaras (0): Yosarian2

Edit: Fixed

petroleumjelly · Post Post #2452 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:31 pm

Mod

, ThAdmiral is voting mnowax2, VitaminR, and

Fritzler

, not Yosarian2. Please adjust the vote count.

Still deciding what I want to do here. As an advance warning, I'll be leaving for summer vacation either this Friday or Saturday, and I don't know if I'll have internet access.

I hope to leave some sort of assignments for people before I leave, but I've yet to determine what it will be. I'm strongly considering the following:

Creating a list of all the players in the game, and having everybody analyze the two people below them (and for those people at the bottom of the list, they just look back to the top). Still, I would want said list to be arranged in such a way that I don't get somebody doing an analysis they've already done, so this would still require me to reread the game so that we'll get new standpoints instead of rehashed ones. As an obvious side-effect, this should force the lesser participants into participating as well as making sure somebody (two people at least, if I use that plan) is watching them.

After having each person analyze both persons under them, they must then answer which of those two they would

rather

have executed

if

they were forced to choose.

So that's what's on my mind. If anybody would like to make tweaks or suggestions, I'm open to them, but that doesn't mean I'll incorporate them.

Cavane · Post Post #2453 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 1:01 pm

I'd make it three people, not two. Mainly because being forced to choose between just two people is kinda bogus, esp. if both of them have been pretty pro-town. I think we'll see more definate patterns if people are allowed to choose between three. I think it's a good idea, nonetheless.

ThAdmiral · Post Post #2454 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 3:40 pm

2nded for good idea. Just means more bloody readthroughs though.

Toaster Strudel · Post Post #2455 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:38 pm

Yeah, near 100 pages, still 14 players... that's a lot of read-through. But limiting to 2 or 3 players is a good idea.

Mastermind of Sin · Post Post #2456 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 5:26 pm

I have a suggestion to tweak it. Anyone who does not comply with the assignment faces execution. Trust me, I've done this before, and I should've done that.

petroleumjelly · Post Post #2457 (ISO) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:50 pm

I've been randomly staying up late and felt like reminiscing (mostly because I just finished a book and couldn't go to bed afterwards). I'll be the first to admit I've been procrastinating reading this game, but on the other hand it

is

99 pages long. However, I want VitaminR to clarify his position on "summary posts" in light of an example in action.

I was reading through Simon Mafia [Mini 318] and I was reminded exactly why I don't like summary posts. There were two such posts in this game that caught my eye:

1.) Post 288, by MikeBurnFire. He posts some fluff afterwards, but none of it pertaining to the summary.
2.) Post 587, by VitaminR himself. A summarization post without any opinions attached. And why? Because he hasn't been posting lately, and wanted to look like he was contributing. Later (about

five days

later, to be precise) VitaminR claims to have forgotten about the game, and then throws out a few 'conclusions' in [605] of Simon, which certainly don't seem worth the wait for such a large summary.

Here's the fun part: MBF was the Mafia Godfather. And VitaminR was the Serial Killer. Those were the only two summarization posts without personal comments on them, and both were made for the purposes of looking as if they were 'contributing'. I haven't really read over old games in a while (should probably do more of that to keep me sharp), but I think it says quite a bit about a scumtell being effective when I decide to read a

single

game, and see

two

instances of a scumtell I firmly believe in committed, and having

both

of this instances come from scum. I'm positive if I were to review old games specifically for the purposes of corroborating this tell, it would stand the test of percentages.

I want to hear what VitaminR now thinks about Dead Rikimaru's giant summary post (which he at one point said suspicion of was a 'fallacy' of some sort, but I don't want to search for it). Also, Vitty, if you can find a game (or happen to recall one) where you've done summarization posts like that when you were

town

, I would be much obliged.

---

In response to Cavane, I limited it specifically to 2 players because the game is so monstrously long and I don't want to give people anything more than they can chew.

In response to MoS, I'll think about it.

VitaminR · Post Post #2458 (ISO) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 7:57 am

PJ, I can remember a number of games in which I've done scummaries (summaries of opinions), but that was the only real instance of me doing a summary. It was honestly more to do with losing track of the game. For all intents and purposes, I was trying to find scum. I didn't have to fake suspicions, because I didn't know who the scum were. That makes your points somewhat problematic.

Regardless of my personal behaviour, though, I really don't think you can attach that much weight to a tell without context. Even with potential statistical backing, there remains a great deal of individual variation. You cannot draw inferences about individual behaviour from population characteristics.

PJ, my point is this. A lack of commentary is scummy because it can be used to avoid attention. This advantage is nullified if the scum involved is the King. You're disregarding context. Similarly, lurking could be considered a tell, but in a large game with this many pages and this many lurkers, it shouldn't really be viewed as indicative of anything.

petroleumjelly · Post Post #2459 (ISO) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 11:46 am

Pretty sure I

am

considering context.

1.) Dead Rikimaru was clearly not contributing while he was King. His summarization made it seem as if he was making a very large contribution to the game whilst saying absolutely nothing. Everybody was

waiting

for him to do

something

, and instead of giving any of his own opinions he decided to post a giant post of fluff. And this was while he was continually trying to bait us along with his great plan, telling us to constantly just wait a little longer.

2.) This particular scum-tell is not entirely relevant whether or not you are trying to find scum - it is indicative of somebody who feels they have to

look like they are contributing without actually doing so

. Your post does exactly that. MBF's did exactly that. And DR in this game certainly looks like exactly that. The context of people wanting DR to contribute

something

is what I am focusing on.

3.)

VitaminR wrote:Similarly, lurking could be considered a tell, but in a large game with this many pages and this many lurkers, it shouldn't really be viewed as indicative of anything.

This is striking me as terribly wrong. More people lurking than usual (which I'm not sure is even entirely true for a large game such as this) doesn't excuse those who are lurking. Anything that increases the chances of somebody being scum is something I consider to be a scumtell.

There are, I figure, either 5 or 6 scum in this game. I am personally playing as if there are 6 scum, simply because that's the safest way to play. So:

6/24 = 1/4 = 25%

Basically so long as a fraction more 25% of the lurkers are scum, it still stands as a scumtell. It's by no means

definitive

, but it is definitely something

to take note of

.

RafK · Post Post #2460 (ISO) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 2:05 pm

Two comments:

1) The one problem with the analysis of DR is that he strung us along to no avail: he disappeared and got replaced. He disappeared for weeks on end, tried to answer the clamouring by just spewing some long notes into the thread, then gave up on the game entirely and disappeared without a goodbye. It's not a lurking scenario, it's an inactivity scenario. And to metagame slightly, I would think that scum king would be one of the most interesting spots to be in the game, not a spot to go inactive in.

It's not impossible for him to be scum, but I don't think his lurking during his kingship is a good tell, because it was inactivity rather than lurking.

2) I instinctively distrust mathematical arguments in mafia games. I agree with you that it's likely 6, maaaybe 5, total mafia (which means we still face an organised group of scum, not one or two lone voices), but I don't support any lurker lynch arguments based on statistics.

VitaminR · Post Post #2461 (ISO) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 6:34 pm

petroleumjelly wrote:1.) Dead Rikimaru was clearly not contributing while he was King. His summarization made it seem as if he was making a very large contribution to the game whilst saying absolutely nothing. Everybody was
waiting
for him to do
something
, and instead of giving any of his own opinions he decided to post a giant post of fluff. And this was while he was continually trying to bait us along with his great plan, telling us to constantly just wait a little longer.

He was clearly not contributing, that is my point. That summarisation could not make it seem as if he was making a very large contribution, because it was too obvious that it was fluff.

petroleumjelly wrote:2.) This particular scum-tell is not entirely relevant whether or not you are trying to find scum - it is indicative of somebody who feels they have to
look like they are contributing without actually doing so
. Your post does exactly that. MBF's did exactly that. And DR in this game certainly looks like exactly that. The context of people wanting DR to contribute
something
is what I am focusing on.

I don't see why that cannot apply to a townie as well. My point still stands, though. In this context, DR's post does not look like that. No one was fooled for a second, because his position was too conspicuous.

petroleumjelly wrote:Basically so long as a fraction more 25% of the lurkers are scum, it still stands as a scumtell. It's by no means
definitive
, but it is definitely something
to take note of
.

Perhaps, but again, drawing strong inferences about individual behaviour from population characteristics is fallacious.

Thesp · Post Post #2462 (ISO) » Thu Jun 21, 2007 1:49 pm

I had some connectivity issues the other day when I tried to post this, but I've got it here:

Vote: Mastermind of Sin, ThAdmiral, KaleiÐoscøpe, mnowax.

Mod: Can Fritzler be replaced/modkilled? Thanks.

Some suspicions are based on the kill last night (which I'm beginning to think more and more is actually useful information), some are latent, and some are for yesterday's activity. I'll clarify more later.

Thok · Post Post #2463 (ISO) » Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:44 pm

Thesp wrote:
Mod: Can Fritzler be replaced/modkilled? Thanks.

I have sent Fritzler a prod giving him 24 hours to post or be replaced. I do not which to modkill any players in the game at this point in time.

petroleumjelly · Post Post #2464 (ISO) » Thu Jun 21, 2007 4:09 pm

Okay – the Jelly Circle begins now. Each person has to make an analysis of the two people below them, and then decide which of those two players they would execute if they were absolutely

forced

to. If you are one of the two bottom people on the list, revert to the top until you find the two players "after" you.

Those who do not comply will be put directly onto the LoE. I did a narrowed reading of the game, and tried to arrange the list in such a way so that people are commenting on people they haven't really talked about in detail for a few days. There were a few people hard to stick in this category (like MoS, who everybody seems to have commented on), but for the most part I think this should work fairly well. Note that I

do

expect analyses to cover any and all replacements.

Jelly Circle

1.) petroleumjelly
2.) Thesp

3.) Lowell
4.) Zindaras

5.) ThAdmiral
6.) VitaminR

7.) RafK
8.) Fritzler

9.) Mastermind of Sin
10.) Toaster Strudel

11.) Cavane
12.) mnowax2

13.)K-Scope
14.) Yosarian2

I felt like making it rainbow colored. So sue me. Hopefully everybody will have this done before I come back from vacation.

Mod Edit: Fixed

petroleumjelly · Post Post #2465 (ISO) » Thu Jun 21, 2007 4:12 pm

Mod

, if you could switch K-Scope to being on

Slot 13

and mnowax2 to being on

Slot 12

, 'twould be much appreciated. I already know what K-Scope thinks of mnowax2, don't need him to say it again.

RafK · Post Post #2466 (ISO) » Thu Jun 21, 2007 4:18 pm

I thought Rainbow Brite was Seol's gimmick?

Fritzler and MoS. Oh boy.

KaleiÐoscøpe · Post Post #2467 (ISO) » Thu Jun 21, 2007 7:29 pm

You've got to be kidding me... Like my time is unlimited...

ThAdmiral · Post Post #2468 (ISO) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 2:04 am

I got a juicy couple, but then again so did most.

Yosarian2 · Post Post #2469 (ISO) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 2:05 am

Ok. So, I analyze you and Thesp, PJ., and say which one of the two of you I would kill if I had to?

I'll try to do a full analysis when I have time; honestly, the very thought of doing such a re-read kind of exausts me. So let's get started with me just saying what my gut is about the two of you at the moment before I re-read.

I wouldn't really want to execute either you or thesp, because neither one of you seems very scummy to me. If I had to choose one or the other, at the moment, (again, before my re-read), I would choose to execute Thesp. Basically, I've got pro-town vibes from PJ, and neutral vibes from Thesp, from such things as the treatement of SV (pablito's "unsure/probably not" answer to the execute SV question made sense to me at the time, but it could also be a scum partner type of reaction) and from seeing the way Thesp acts as scum in other games, I could see pablito/thesp being either scum or town, while PJ has been giving me a fairly strong pro-town vibe. Again, Thesp is nowhere near the top of my own personal list of suuspects, but if it came down to either Thesp or PJ, I'd say execute Thesp.

Hopefully, I'll be able to go into more detail once I do a re-read, if I can find the time for that.

Mastermind of Sin · Post Post #2470 (ISO) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 4:23 am

Yos's analysis is going to be fun. Mine, not so much. They're lurker/replacements -_-

Lowell · Post Post #2471 (ISO) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:57 am

Okay I'll do these one at a time. Zindaras now, ThAdmiral later.

Zindaras

-

Basically, it comes down to Zindy's reign as King. Specificially: Is there anything to suggest he was bussing a scumbuddy?

I read through starting at the top of page 86, where he reveals his LOE and first expresses his suspicion of SV (also Fritz and VitR). My conclusion:

ZINDY IS INNOCENT

. Why?

1) SV spent a lot of time in her posts sucking up to the king (for the best example, see post 2137). I think that, were this part of a larger scum gambit to sacrifice one of their own to make the scumking (a) look innocent, and (b) be more likely to be made king again, SV would have come out FIRING a little more. Basically, were I scum in said situation (with another scum openly targeting me), I would have taken the hint , played along, and done as much as possible to mock/cast suspicion on/loudly argue with the king.

Instead, SV seemed all too willing and happy to comply w/ king's requests, never once casting suspicion on him, or really do anything to draw his ire. So the question is: Why, if SV knew she was being sacrificed for the betterment of the team, wouldn't she put up a better show/fight?

2) If Scum were sacrificing one of their own to achieve the above goals, why would Zindaras have waited so long, drawing the ire of nearly everyone in the process? Certainly, killing TOO quickly and TOO assuredly would look bad, but reading through again, Zindy's reign lasted about 6 pages longer than most people were comfortable with. Nearly anywhere between pages 89 and 94, he could have said "All right, I've seen enough, here's my best guess". He didn't, and people (including me) took him to task for it. Just unnecessary for a scum to cause that much ruckus in my opinion, even for WIFOM purposes.

Toaster Strudel · Post Post #2472 (ISO) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:28 am

Lemme start with Fritzler.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 345#443345

Claims Pookyscum is "good guy."

Claims to be scum with Pooky, in broad daylight.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 697#486697
Wants to kill townie (Nightson/Vikingfan/Toaster Strudel)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 244#511244
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 793#512793
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 171#543171
Wants to kill ThAdmiral (Olio/StallingChamp/ChannelDelibird)

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 171#543171
Wants to kill MoS

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 326#545326
Claims to know VitaminR (rep. DragonsofSummer/Phoebus) is scum.

vote: Fritzler

Toaster Strudel · Post Post #2473 (ISO) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:29 am

OMG next I have to read all ten pages of MoS's literary output... yikes.

Thok · Post Post #2474 (ISO) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:09 am

Thok wrote:
Thesp wrote:
Mod: Can Fritzler be replaced/modkilled? Thanks.
I have sent Fritzler a prod giving him 24 hours to post or be replaced. I do not which to modkill any players in the game at this point in time.

Fritzler seems to have not posted anywhere on MS since Sunday. I'm hunting for a replacement. I appreciate any help in this endeavour.

If Fritzler shows up before I find a replacement, he will be allowed to continue playing. I do not plan on modkilling the role if it can be avoided.